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The Future of Taiwan | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: All right, everybody, hello, and welcome back to Liberty and
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Health and today. It's been like a year and a
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: half and it doesn't feel like it's been that long,
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: although if you live in the United States, I swear
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: it's just like day after day after day. It just
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: it goes by very fast. Now, being a new father,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: which Carl and I were just talking about off air,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: it really goes by fast. So anyways, Carl, welcome back,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: and I'm so glad to have you. There's been a
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: luck going on in the world. But first things first,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: how are you?
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Thank you, Kyle, And as a new father myselfself, I
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: might advising joy while you can. We just have our
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: our second baby. Our second baby is a little bit
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: older than yours. But yeah, this is the this is
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: the most precious time, you know, like pretty soon they'll
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: be able to talk back, like my first time.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: It's kind of funny. My one coworker said, like, oh,
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: this stage of having a kid is great, but when
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: they could start like forming their own thoughts and stuff,
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: that's when it goes down. So speaking of kind of
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: talking back and stuff like that, some interesting stuff happened
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: over in your neck of the woods, speaking of you know,
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: East Asia and China and that, and I'm surprised I
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: didn't see more like hawkish people in China and the
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: United States talking about like anyone in the Trump administration.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: That seemed to go under the radar for people who
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: don't kind of observe the stuff as closely as you
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: and I did. But I really want to start off
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: with Shang le Wound, the chairwoman of the Couming Tang
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: had went over as the first you know, like party
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: member of a serious political party in Taiwan. I'm having
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: communications with, you know, using ping for the first time
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: in what was it ten years. I'm just curious your
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: thoughts on that, and what do you think this means?
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Do you think this is a big deal, like just
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: you know, feel free to start where you want.
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's definitely a big deal.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: You know, the last time the head of KMT, which
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: is the main opposition party on Taiwan, the last time
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: the head of KMT went to mainland China, that was
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: twenty fifteen.
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: You know, that's more than ten years ago.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: And a lot has changed obviously in the last ten years.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: You know, one thing is the ruling party on Taiwan,
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: DPP is now deeply unpopular. They have been in power
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: for a long time, well over a decade, and people
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: are getting fed up. And you know, the current setting president,
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: Lai Hinda, was only elected with forty percent of the vote.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: We can irect you here. I'm so sorry, but I
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: talked about my friend Niko with this, But I was
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: looking at the betting markets and the reason why I
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: wanted to interrupt here is because I want to have
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: you explain this a little bit more. The betting markets
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: have ly Chin Day winning the twenty twenty eight election
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: with I think it was like eighty percent, but the
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Counming Tang has like a forty percent chance of winning
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: the mid terms. So I take these betting markets with
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: the grain of salt. But I wanted to make sure
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: I kind of get this in here, and I want
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: you to work that into your explanations. So I'm sorry
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: to interrupt, but I really wanted to get a little bit.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: Of that out, ye, So for to break it down
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: to the basics for people like who are not conversion
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: in Taiwan politics. Taiwan used to be a two party system,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: you know, KMT DPP, just like the United States, but
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: in more recent years now there's a third party TPP,
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: and which made things interesting, but it also means opposition
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: to DPP is now split split two ways. And this
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: is why over the last presidential election, Light Chindo was
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: able to win with only forty percent of the vote
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: because there were three candidates and the opposition was split
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: two ways, so it was like forty thirty something thirty
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: something in a twenty something and so this is a
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: you know, I think people who are counting on Li
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: Chindo to win twenty twenty eight is counting on this
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: opposition to remain split k M T and TPP. Now
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: this this is what what we need to watch is
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: a coming election in November because Taiwan has the same
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: election cycle as a United States, right, so so they
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: also have midterm election in November, and uh, this is
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: another election for the opposition to lose because people are
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: just sick and tired of DPP. But the problem is
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: the problem of coordination among the opposition.
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: If if k M T and TPP.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: Can somehow work together, they will be able to take
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: more seats than they have currently because uh, you know,
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: in some this is like really local politics. But for example,
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: in in southern Taiwan. We're used to be a DPP stronghold,
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: but TPP is a strong challenger like KMT can say okay,
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: we will with you our candid from the race. So
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: all the opposition to DPP now can go vote for
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: the TPP party, whereas see in the other parts of Taiwan,
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: TPP could do the same thing for the KMT say okay,
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: we'll take our candidate out of this race. Now you'll
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: be a two way race between KMT and and DPP.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: That that way will make sure DPP will be defeated.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: If they're able to do that, there's a great chance
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: of a landslide defeat for DPP. No. Now, the question
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: of course rests on the coordination whether that will happen
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: or not. That did not happen during the last presidential election,
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: and this is something that remained to be seen because
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: the Taiwan politics, you always throw curveball at you. You
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: never know what to expect. So but but but the
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: fact is that the DPP, the current DPP head like Hindo,
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: was never really popular. I mean he was voting, he
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: was voting, he was forty percent of the votes, and
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: now he is even less popular. Uh, you know, because
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: Taiwan faced a lot of the same problems more advanced
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: economies like United States faces, which is economic stagnation. Uh,
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: the youth have diminished economic prospects. Housing prices too high,
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: way too high. They can't afford it. I remember there
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: was a famous UH Taiwanese former Now now he's a
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: former Taiwanese Independent supporter. Back then, a few years ago,
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: he was still a Taiwanese Independent Supporters known as GEM
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: Boss Gwenzong. He he used to I remember there was
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: a famous rant he said, look, if the if the
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: Communists were come to this island, you know they will,
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: they will have to fight us, will fight them on
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: the street, because this is because right now we you know,
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: like the freedom, freedom of speech is the last thing
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: we have on this island. You know, we can't afford
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: to buy houses, we don't have good job prospect. If
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: you take away our right to be as a line,
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: we will fight you tooth. And now after that random
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: like dude, this guy is so close. This guy is
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: so close. And then like half year later he flipped.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: He flipped.
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: Now he's touring mainland China.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: He's saying, oh, you know, like this is there's no
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: reason for brothers to fight against brothers, and he turned
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: against the current administration. So this is there is a
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: tectonic uh place ship in Taiwan because people are ready
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: for something new rather than this old, tired confrontation with
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: mainland to dominate every you know, fast of their life.
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: They just want to move on and and and and
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: and and.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: And concentrate on how to get their kids educated, how
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: to get better health services, and how to how to
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: get better jobs, you like, just like.
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: Everybody else in the world.
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: And this is where So this is why if km
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: T and TPP, the two opposition party can get their
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: act together, they have a real chance.
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: At at a sweeping victory this November.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: And this is also why the current head of the
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: KMT to visit mainland China at this particular juncture and
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: meeting with Hijin being in a high profile visit is
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: a big deal, is a big deal because she uh
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: she actually openly said, like if you if you love Taiwan,
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: you would not want Taiwan to be turned into a battlefield.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: Just look at what happened to Ukraine. We do not
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: want to do Ukraine of East Asia, right Like, So
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: so let's let's let's let's have a dialogue. Let's have
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: dialogue across the Taiwan straight so to make sure to
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: minimize the risk of conflict. I mean, that's that's that's
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: very easy logic, and that's this is why Hue Also
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: she was very well received uh on mainland China on
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: the trip, which will help her because she is scheduled
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: to visit the United States, you know, and now the
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: American official have to be nice to her because she's saying, hey,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: we have options, you know, if you're mean to us,
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: what to turn to mainland China. So I think that
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: that's politically savvy on her part, because ultimately the Taiwan
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: issue is really not a issue between Taiwan and mainland China,
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: per sees really a US China issue. It has been
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: since nineteen forty nine or nineteen fifty when President Truman
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: authorized seventh Fleet to sail into the Taiwan Stui to
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: prevent the crossing. The situation, the political situation today is
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: a legacy of that. It's a legacy of that decision
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: in July nineteen fifty as a result of the Korean War,
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: when Truman says, Oh okay, we can't. We can't let
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: the communists China take over Taiwan. That was before the
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: Chinese intrigue into the Korean War, by the way, because
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: at that time Mao had about half million troops on
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: the waiting to cross the Taiwan Straight. And then when
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: Seventh Fleet sailed to the Taiwan Straight, Uh, male said, okay, okay,
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: take take those half million troops, move them north or
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: send them to Korea and and and China enter into
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: the Korean War on October that year, so three months
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: after the US seventh Fleet inter the Taiwan Straight.
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: So so this is all connected.
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: But uh, this is a real chance for a conciliation
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: and at least you know, I mean unifications by too early,
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: but at least for peace to break out, you know,
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: like which is I think for for both both sides
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: of the Taiwan Straight. And none of the people are
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: really interested to see an actual war. If a war
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: is to break out, it's going to be cities on
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: both sides of the Taiwan Straight and and and and
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: I would say, and cities all around East Asia that's
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: going to be devastated.
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: Just look at look at what's going on in West.
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: Asia right now, right, I mean the the all the
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: so all the the whole idea, the premise of the
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: US empire system in whether East Asia or or UH,
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: whether Yeast or West Asia, is that US alliance with
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: the United States is supposed to provide you with a
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: security shield to protect you.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: How that that's not how what happened by hosting US
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: basis is making you a target.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: But it actually is understood by the Pentagon. You know,
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: from from get go, the whole purpose of the US
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: basis in Okinawa, in South Korea, in the Philippines, in Australia,
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: they're actually not there to protect anything. They're they're acting
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: in two purposes. One is served as strip wire. That
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: that's a that's a term for the US UH troop
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: deployment in South The idea of trip wire is if.
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: The North Korea were launched at South Korea. Yeah, and
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: then if that.
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: Were to happen, and if the US military personnel get
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: caught in the way, that will be a cause for
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: United States to enter the war.
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: So so these.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: Guys are literally human sacrifices, you know, to to serve
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: as a justification to drag United States into a deeper war,
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: and and so that that's one reason. The second reason
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: for for all these US bases in the region. Uh So,
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: so all these other countries can serve US a missile sponge,
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: so they can soak up all the Chinese missile braches,
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: so less less will be directed to the US seventh Fleet.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: It won't be the USS Gerald R Ford getting sunk
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: to the south to the Taiwan Street.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: Yes, yes, so so I mean that logic is becoming
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: increasingly obvious now to everyone. You know. Soess what's happening
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: to especially GCC countries in the Persian Gulf. Their economy
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: is getting evaporated, you know, like the straight Horn Moses
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: Block and there their their other not only the US basis,
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: but all the Amazon data centers are getting getting led
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: up by Irani and Jones and Missouse. I mean that
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: this is why the silver lining of the Iran conflict
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: is actually less now we have had a much reduced
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: possibility of actual hot kinetic action in East Asia because
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: now it's obvious, I think to most people now the
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: United States cannot take on your brown forget about China, you.
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: Know, I mean, like like United States.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: Barely have any economic interaction with Iran.
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: China is where.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: Eighty percent of the antibiotics come from the United States,
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: you know, and and like.
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: This is it's a you know.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: I saw on twitterly Tom Cott and uh issue to
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: he proposed some legislation that will ban like the Chinese
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: drugs into the United States. I'm like, are you sure
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: you want to cut off eighty percent of your antibiotics?
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: Supply be sure that was a good idea, But anyway,
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: like good.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: They don't. I don't think they think very much before
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: we start getting into the Iran conflict, because I do
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: want to touch on that because that is a very
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: very important part of I thought the show the New
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Geopolitical Order, because I keep hearing people talk about like
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: the way that Trump is allegedly going after the British banks,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: like the city of London and all that. But I
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: feel like it's almost anci layer to the conversation of
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: the pivot to Asia since like twenty eleven. Right, So
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: I want to touch on Taiwan before we start moving
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: into Iran again, because my understanding is like Chin Tay,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: he's very very much so willing to work with the US,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: you know, So if I remember correctly. He's like China
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: calls him a warmonger, right. I believe there was a
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: h a recent statement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry where
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: they called him a warmonger and something else, which you know,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: I think that's him just being a little hyperbolic, but
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: it makes sense because he's more willing to take Like
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Trump just did that whole what was at thirteen billion
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: dollars in arms sales of Taiwan just a couple of
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: months ago. The KMT. I would like to kind of
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: exploit it a little bit more because like they're independence minded,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: but they're more willing to work with China, if I
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: understand that correctly. But it seems like shang Li Woun
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: was more willing to work with China, like explicitly so.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: And like you said, she doesn't want Taiwan to be
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: the Ukraine of Asia, which is basically what the US
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: wants to do with it. And it's interesting that she's
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: coming to the United States because the United States with
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: their new national security strategy, which I don't think this
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: is going to be implemented because they said we're I'm
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: sure you read it, they said, hey, we're pivoting away
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: from the Middle East. We're pivoting away from China. We're
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: going to focus on the Western hemisphere. Okay, well, then
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: you fight a war with Iran. It looks like that,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: you know, national security strategy is now not void. So
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: as far as like all that goes, do you think that, like,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: when was the last time the CAMT really had power
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: and when they did, were they willing to work with
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: the US in like an explicit way kind of like
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: the current leading party, the Democratic Progressive Party, like they
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: seem very willing to work with the US, Like once again,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: they're welcoming the US in essentially, what's the whole vibe here?
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the last time CAMT was in power was more
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: than a decade ago. This is why there has been
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: a lot changed in Taiwan since then. Back then, Taiwan
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: had a president May Joe, who is also KMT chairman.
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: He actually proposed further tighter economic integration with China. He
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: proposed a free trade agreement. Now, this free trade agreement
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: had a lot of support from the Taiwan businesses who
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: wanted to do more business with mainland China. But this,
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: this whole free trade pack was scattered by what my
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: friend in Taiwan. Shang we called a color revolution by
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: the Sunflower Movement. So a lot of Taiwan students they
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: stormed the Taiwan legislature, they occupied it, occupied the Taiwan legislature,
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: and it's called the Soundflower Movement. And that protest scattered
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: the whole closer economic integration with mainland China.
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: And as Hiang you pointed out.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: A lot of the student leaders of that movement were
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: either getting funded or felled it with all those nd
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: you know, National Endowment for Democracy, which is basically a
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: CIA cut out for for for for instigating color revolutions.
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: And and the Sunflower Movement.
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: Actually served as a template for the later Hong Kong
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: protests in twenty nineteen. They that the people who, you know,
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: the Hong Kong billionaire tycoon like Jimmy Lai who is
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: in jail right now, he actually went to the leaders,
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: uh you know, tai of Taiwan who work he created
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: the Soundflower movement, try to you know, learn from them,
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: how how to how to get everything working. So this this,
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: you know, yeah, there's there's many reasons Jimmy Light is
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: in jail, not just because Wall Street Journal call him
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: the ruper Murdoch of.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: A just anybody in the West. It's because he was
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: a billionaire, and you can't be a billionaire in China.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: I'm like something about this doesn't sound right, dude, I'm
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: not buying this.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, because like he's uh he he rang a
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: media empire act called Apple Daily. And his second man,
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: his second man in command, Mark Simon, came from like
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: a prominent c I A family. You know.
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: It's it's very shady.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: And and they also were photographed together with like the
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: U s Counsulate a meeting with the US Council in
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: Hong Kong during the protest.
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: Uh, this is a white white this is all.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: And that that Hong Kong protest actually got d p
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: p UH, the current ruling party in Taiwan re elected,
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: you know because at that time the dpp UH president
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: tai when it was actually also very wobbly in popular support.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: She at one point her popular support was in in
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: uh single digits. And then Hong Kong protests happened, and
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: then they start this whole scaremongering campaign like, oh, you
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: look at what happened to Hong Kong. If you know,
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: one country, two system we're implement it here. You know,
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: what's happening in Hong Kong would be happening in Taiwan today.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: So vocal DPP because DPP is a more vocally and.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: The most independent minded.
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: They're the the Taiwan independence is literally written in their
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: party platform. But since they have taken over the power,
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: they kind of backtrack a little bit because they say, well,
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: we don't need to declare independence because the Republic of
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: China and Taiwan is already independent, so we don't have
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: to declare independence anymore. But anyway, so both parties KMT
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: and DPP, they're they're basically both status quo parties. They're
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: they're parties to me. But of these two, uh, DPP
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: is definitely more pro I mean they're more more client
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: or more US client. Both parties are pro US. Let
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: let's make no mistake. All PIGO parties in Taiwan are
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: have to go pay a visit to Aiit the American
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: Institute on Taiwan which served as a de facto embassy
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: on Taiwan after nineteen seventy eight, after US and China
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: normalized relationship and Washington switched the diplomatic recognition from the
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: government on Taiwan to the government on Beijing. So but
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: the you know, the the AIIT, the head of ai
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: T is like the American counsul on Taiwan. He's a
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: guy who actually calling the shots. So all the parties
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: have ties more or less with the US. But KMT,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: they they do have a little bit more independent streak.
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: In the case that KMT they started out. You know,
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: their their official name zoom Googo Mindan, which literally means
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: Chinese Nationalist Party. Their party that started in mainland China
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: right led into the founding of the Republic of China.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: They were the defeated party in this Chinese Civil War
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: in nineteen forty nine. So when the jiun Kai shift
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: fled to Taiwan, he took a lot of his people
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: with him to Taiwan. So that's a background of KMT,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: And this is why kim T has always, at least
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: nominally been saying adhere to the One China principle. They
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: always claimed that they claimed the jurisdiction over all China
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: and they're the only legitimate government of China. That had
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: been the official position for kim TI for a long time.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: But the DPP, which arose in Taiwan in nineteen eighties
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: while Taiwan was under marshall law. So Taiwan was actually
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: under marshal law from nineteen forty seven to nineteen eighty seven.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: For the whole period of forty years, Taiwan was under
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: more martual law. So during the time Taiwan was under
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: martial law, Juan Kai Che's government basically killed They target
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: all oppositions, but they first killed off all the Communists
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: and all the native communists, all the suspected communist sympathizers.
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: They all either got locked up or killed, and so
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: that left the only opposition to KMT rule on Taiwan
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: be this kind of liberal from this liberal opposition, this
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: is where the DPP come from. They were against the
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: KMT dictatorship in Taiwan from nineteen forty seven to nineteen
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: eighty seven. And this is what's the taime.
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: When Thin the Win the current head of KMT, back then,
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: she was actually part of the DPP.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: She was part of the opposition to the to then
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: the military dictatorship that was ruling Taiwan, and but she
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: switched when so after the after Taiwan democratized, the election
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: were held when they when the KMET allowed opposition party
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: to form. This is how DPP came about in nineteen nineties.
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: What DPP realized then is to being able to distinguish
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: themselves with the KMT when both both party are basically
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: representing the neo liberal interests. In order to distinguish themselves
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: with the ruling KMT back then, they had to come
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: up with something different, and they decide to adopt the
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: populace divide and conquer strategy. Because Taiwan demographically, you know,
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: sixty eighty percent, like eighty five percent of the people
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: on Taiwan today, they have their families living on the
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: island before nineteen forty nine. So these people they speak,
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: you know, what they call Taiwan needs, but it's really
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: a dialect of the of Fujian dialect, which is spoken
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: across the Taiwan straight, in the in the in the
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: other side of the Taiwan Straight. But they're different from
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: the other fifteen percent of the population who came with
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: Jiuang Kai shed from mainland China in nineteen forty nine,
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: because they came from all over China, not just the
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: one specific province of Fujen were traditionally have been the
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: source of migration into Taiwan. So those people, they spoke
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: all different dialects, and so came te mandated Mandarin education
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: for everyone. Like at that time, they've forbidden people to
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: spoke the Taiwanese dialect in school. You know, you get
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: slapped in school if the teacher here you're speaking the
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: local lingua. And so this of course created a lot
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: of resembment too, because a lot of people in Taiwan
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: feel like, okay, filing the Japanese colonizer left, and then
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: all these carpet baggers from the mainlands can take over
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: and they take over all the position important position in
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: the government that was original opposition to the KMT because
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: they're seeing as this mainland mainlander carpet bagger party. Uh
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: this is how But.
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: But DPP realized, hey, if we can.
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: Exploit this division, this is like Taiwan versus Mainlander division,
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: we will win because popular you know, demographic wise, we
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: got majority eighty five percent of the population. So that's
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: that's the tactics to pursue. And that it didn't work
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: out for them because now they're the ruling party. But
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: Serny when decided to leave DPP at that point because
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: he she originally was seeing DPP to oppose the KMT
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: dictatorship KMET ruling, but she she saw that DPP was
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: yere into this more populous uh kind of playing this
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: ethnic divide vite rule because she she came from a
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: mixed family. Her father was came from the KMT military
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: side that came from mainland China, but her mother was
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: from Taiwan. So she she she she has roots from
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: both sides of the both sides of the device. So
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: so she she was not you know, she was not
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: for this kind of uh dpp pow policy of sewing
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: ethnic division in Taiwan.
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: So so anyway, so.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: This is but but but KMT has always have its.
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: Own little independence streak.
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: He's even jun Kai Shed because he, uh Washington originally
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: wanted jun Kai Shed to actually severed ties completely with
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: Mainland just you know, forget about trying to claim to
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: represent all of China when you're Taiwan just just clearing
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: declaring independence.
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: We will protect you.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: Uh. But John Kay should refuse that because he still
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: has pretensions of being ruler of all over China, and
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: he's still at heart a Chinese nationalists and so Taiwan niece.
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: Taiwan independence is anasthma to Junki shid and which he
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: actually actively suppressed during his rule. And so this is
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: this is kind of the difference between.
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: K M T and d p P.
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: Both are pro US worked with US, but k M
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: t UH are not really like big, let's go like,
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: let's declare Taiwan independence, whereas the DPP they're more obsequious.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: They're more obsequious to the US interest because they see
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: that as the best possible route to get what they want.
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: So those are the differences.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: But it is it for for China, they're open to
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: to work with anyone who you know, who is who
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: is willing to to to to talk that the problem
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: with Lei Chindu is that so I was talking with
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: another Taiwanese person and Julika Um who also awesome. Yeah yeah, yeah,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: she also used to be the DPP supporter, you know
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: a few years back, and she also recently changed her position.
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: Uh, And she said.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm like, wait, aren't Angelica, aren't you just always
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: supporting girl bosses because back when Tying, who was a
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: leader of DVV was t you supported taieng wand and
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: now tending one is a km TEA chair woman used support.
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: Tend ne one.
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: She's just like, well, okay, I now disagree with Tieing
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: when on many issues. But one thing that separates Tying
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: when the former president of Taiwan versus LII Chindu the
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: current president, is that taig Win is a lot more
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: politically savvy. She will, you know, she.
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: Will not deliberately go mainland China.
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: You know, she will say all those things, but she
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: will only walk up to to to a certain line,
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: and she you know, before she walks back that position,
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: she will make sure she does not cross the red
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: line to trigger an escalation of conflict. Whereas is a
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: little bit more of a loose cannon. I mean, she
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: does not lacks that political savviness, and so she is
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: he's more for like open confrontation with mainly China, which
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: make him a better a better candidate for for Washington,
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: you know, because for Washington's a current policy of being
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: antagonists to her China. So this is kind of the
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: complex complexity and nuances of the Taiwan politics today. But
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: I think I'm I'm fairly optimistic just you know, like
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: I think that especially giving the current trends. A lot
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: of people have realized, you know, United States is not
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: a sure bet. You know, it's not the alliance with
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: United States do not necessarily yield the expected benefits. So
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: Taiwan is one of the best customer for the US
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: military industrial complex by the way, you know, like a
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: lot of time we just reported as like US A
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: to Taiwan. No, no, those are not a Taiwan. I'm purchasing
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: those with real hard currencies, and unlike say Israel, that's
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: the money.
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: That's just I've heard you called before the Golden calf. Well,
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: now that we're kind of through the Taiwan stuff, I
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: do want to touch on the iron stuff because now
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: this is what I'm really curious about as well, and
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: this is related. Everybody had kept saying that Iran and
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Venezuela we're both about getting energy from China. But when
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: I look this up, and I want your input on
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: this as well, the most I could find is that
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: maybe Iran in Venezuela gave China twenty percent of their oil,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: so that's a fifth of their energy, which once again
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: that's you know, China has tons of renewables and there's
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: other forms of energy that they have. So there's that
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: who actually closing down the Straight of Hormoves actually really
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: hurt was all the other countries in East Asia, Taiwan, Japan,
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: the Philippines, India, all the countries that the US wants
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: to use against China. But China also has a three
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: month stack of oil. So I'm sure they're not happy
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: about it. But once again the strait of horm Moves
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: is open for China. So and then Venezuela is still
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: selling small amounts of oil to China. So this whole
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: deal where supposedly.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so a lot of people, Yeah, a lot of
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: people are getting confused by kind of statistics. You know,
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: ninety percent of Iranian oil and Venezuela and oil we're
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: going to China before, right, But while that's ninety percent
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: of Venezuelan and Uranian production, is actually a smaller fraction
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: of what China actually imports. We actually have data for
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: that because of those oil are sanctions. They're usually being
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: those oils who are being shipped on what's called the
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: shadow fleet or the dark fleet. They travel to South
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: China Sea and they get swap out the oil load
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: on different tankers and then get remarketed mostly rebranded as
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: Malaysian oil. So if you actually look at the Chinese
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: oil import, you're like, the top three origin country is Russia,
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia and.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: Malaysia, and you're like, Malaysia.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: Malaysia is an oil producer producing country, but it doesn't
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: produce in that kind of quantity. And the Malaysian share
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: of the China's oil import is about thirteen percent. So
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: that's about the extent of the Uranian and Venezuelan oil
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: that we're going to China, how much you will compose
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: of China's take, you know, So while it's ninety person
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: of ran in production and ninety percent of Venezuelan, and
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: it's only about thirteen percent of China's own oil imports, right,
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: and oil is a global commodity, you know, China. If
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: less China buys less fun Iran and Venezuela, it just
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: means China's buys more from elsewhere, which does not necessarily
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: bot well for US and and the US ally because
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: that just means China going to the China entering the
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: market is going to push the price even higher. And
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: that's how the oil market works. And so this this
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: is the whole reason US have to waiver, have to
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: lift sanctioned on Russian and around here in oil because
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: they realized their allies are getting screwed because especially their
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: allies in East Asia, Japan, South Korea, Philippines and India
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: there heavily depend on oil and gas coming from the Golf.
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: And India used to import a lot from from Russia
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: and then resell them at a premium to Europe and
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: then United States pressure India to stop that, and then
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: they have to reverse their decision because like India was
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: panicking because certainly they they're getting cut off on the
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: from the Golf oil and gas and uh so so
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: but that yeah, China has China. China actually has took
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: time to build up their own strategic oil reserve for
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: the last four years, taking advantage of the historically low
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: oil prices. So they had about anywhere between one point
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: two to one point five billion barrels of oil stock up,
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: you know, which would last them you know, anywhere from
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: three to six months. And that that that they're not
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: drawing down their strategic oil reserve because they're still oil
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: coming in, you know, even from Iraq point so so
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: right now even if they stop all oil import from
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: every other country, their strategic oil reserve will last them
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: three to six months. But but right now they're still
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: importing from Russia, from Africa, from UH, you know, even
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: from from Iran and Venezuela. So China is doing okay,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: you know, even though they're paying higher prices than they
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: used to be, but they're they're still getting their oil.
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: So the whole idea that this is.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: Some kind of Trump five dimensional chest to choke off
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: China's energy supply, I think this is just like some
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: neo comm think tanks, particularly I see a lot from
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: Hudson Institute.
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: It's they're just like the way to justify.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: Kids Trump's ass basically like Java has no strategy. Man,
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: this is a guy who started this war without even
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: bother to fill up US its own strategic petroleum reserve.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: Like US used to have a large UH strategic oil reserve,
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: which was drawn down since the Biden years in order
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: to calm the inflation fears and to win election. But
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: before Trump embarked this war, he didn't even bother to
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: refill it back up because he thought this was going
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: to be a short sweet just like the venues ruling operation.
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: I think that Kulvin iseline operation got through their head.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: Okay, we can I think you're right. Yeah, so someone
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: had someone had replied to me with this, and this
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: is when I said, like, the whole idea this is
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: about China's ridiculous. So this guy says Tom Sower. I
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: don't know this guy, but energy, Sea, Lions, communication, the
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: Panama Canal, which US still doesn't control, Venezuela, which they
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: sort of control, but they're still some on oil, the
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: Shade of Horn Moves, which is controlled by Iran. Iran
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: they're still controlling, ran the Straits of Malacca, Indonesia, South China, Sea,
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Straight of Taiwan, like all those the only one the
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: US really has down pat you could maybe make an
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: argument for Venezuela. And then they also shared this one
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: with me, which is showing where all this goes. And like,
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: none of these are working in the favor of the
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: US right now. So I don't get the argument that
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: this is about China.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: So go ahead, by by the way, this whole argument
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: about choking China's energy supply. This had been extensively talked
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: about by US think tanks, by US Navy about straight
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: on Malacca. I mean that that's the choking point. And
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: so so China has spent some serious money and investment
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: over the last two decades try to diversify away from that.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: There is the whole logic of the Belt and Row initiative, right,
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: and this is why they're building gas and oil pipeline
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: through Russia. Russia is now China's largest provider of oil,
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: oil and gas. And you know, they can always increase
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: more uh more more imports from Russia. Which that's that's
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: a route that US can do nothing about. And and
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: and and a lot of people also forget China produced oil.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: China produces more oil than Iraq. China is one of
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: the world's top oil producers. It's just that China's demand
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: is so huge that all that oil is being used domestically.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: And and China is also have been moving into this
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: massive push toward electrification of the country. You know, the
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: all the high speed rail UH in the country are
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: wrung on electricity and and and and the electricity China
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: can generate is their fun coal when uh, when solar,
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: hydro or nuclear China is building UH. China is doing
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: the largest built up nuclear power plants right now, they're
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: building tons of hydro bringing tons of hydro plants on power,
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: and they're building a huge solar roll out throughout the country.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: So so China currently is about eighty six percent self
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: sufficient in primary energy production. Uh so, so it only
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: depends on you know, still fourteen percent of China's energy
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: come from abroad, and half of that is in terms
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: of oil. You know, there's some parts that you can
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: you can't replace, like jet fuel, you can't you can't
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: replace jet fuel. Uh so, which which why China had
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: put an export restriction because China used to be the
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: largest exporter of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel because China
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: has a large refining capacity. So so even though China
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: is a net importer of COUDE, it's a net exporter
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. But now China's like, okay, sorry,
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: we're gonna have to take care of our domestic producers.
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: We're gonna lock it.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: Down, which create a problem for countries like Australia because
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: Australia depends thirty two percent of the jet fuel from
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: China that just got cut off.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: More expensive than.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: Yes, yes, and this is why US really in prime
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: minister is traveling to Singapore trying to secure their supply
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: because Singapore is their second largest supplier of jet fuel,
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: because Singapore also has a large refining capital.
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: But but where does Singapore get its oil?
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: Spore does not Singapore, but we like get mostly it's
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: the oil on the golf. They just refine it. It's
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: just just like China, they have a large refinery, so
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: refine it exported to the to the rest of the world.
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: But China also put an x export control on soft
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: sulfuric acid, which is another huge basic components of of
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: like modern industrial uh economy, because China produced about thirty
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: five percent of the global supply of sulfuric acid.
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: Now sulfuric acid is and and and.
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: And China sort because China sources fifty percent of sulfur
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: from Persian golf. And so China says, okay, you know what,
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: we're going to need. All the sulfuric acid ars out,
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: and so frek acid is using fertilizers, copper mining, car batteries,
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: semiconductor manufacturing. So it's like the basic building block of civilization.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: And this is the kind of the impact that people
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: are going to feel across the globe right now, like fertilizers, fertilizers, urea,
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: nitrogen potassium. These like nitrogen is UH and urea. They're
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: all extracted from natural gas. And those are very important
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: fertilizers that farmers need right now because it's planting season,
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: it's sprains planting season. They need to plant for the
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: rest of the year. If they don't do it, guess what,
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: we're gonna have shortages near end of the year, and
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: that that's going to.
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: Be a very serious problem.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: And also helium. Helium is also extracted from from hydrocarbons,
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: and helium is used in again advanced UH semiconductor manufacturing,
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: which Taiwan is relying on Taiwan to resource most of
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: the helium from the Persian golf so in order for
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: t SMC to make their advanced chips, which helped them
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: to make advance AI chips for Nvidia.
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: So you know, forget the AI bubble, right, I mean,
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: like like.
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: The the whole II bubble premise on them building tons
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: of data centers and and and and then those data
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: center hosts tons of AI chips. Well, guess what, You're
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: not getting your chips because Taiwan is not getting its
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: alien supply.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: So I'm glad that we're touching on that. We kind
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: of worked our way back to Taiwan as well here
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: because I really wanted to hit on this as well,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: because the Iran and Taiwan kind of situation here. I
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: want to know how closely linked they are, because of course,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: what's the first thing anything that happens all over the globe,
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: what's the first thing that people say, John is gonna
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: go after Taiwan now, Like, oh, the US is busy
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: over here, Chinas got Ukraine, China is gonna grafter Taiwan,
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: So does Israel. You know, everybody always plays us up,
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: Like you see people putting firm dates on this. I'm like,
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna happen. So I'm really curious about if
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: Iran is now only exporting to what they consider their allies.
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: And then the GCC countries are also probably looking at
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: the US now and thinking like, man, you're like, now
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: thanas we have to ration interceptors because you don't have
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: enough to defend us from a war you started without
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: consulting us. What the hell does this mean? And then
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: Taiwan also, you say, like ching Tay is relatively unpopular,
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: but if they have to pay more for energy, he's
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: probably even less popular now. So if you can't get
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: all these semiconductors, because Taiwan is struggling for energy and
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: they really need a little bit more stability with China
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: because China can provide them all this stuff. But Iran
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: is now being you know, kind of forced closer to China,
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: and GCC countries are now more willing to work with
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: China more than likely, at least it is my assumption
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: this last part, you know, does this make it more
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: likely that the KMT wins the midterms and then let's
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: say wins twenty twenty eight, and I know this also
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: depends on you know, them being able to cooperate with TPP.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: What do you think this all looks like? Like? How
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: do you think the as I titled the show, the
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: New Geopolitical Order, looks since it does seem like this
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: whole warr on despite people saying this about China, it
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: seems like it's actually well maybe they're right because it
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: benefited China at least by the way that I'm looking
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: at it, like a lot.
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: Oh definitely, definitely, I mean China is looking to be
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: like this rock of stability right now, A lot of
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: the capital are looking to for capital flight fund the GCC.
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: And guess where there we'll go. They will go to East.
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: Asia, they will go to China, they will go to
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: Southeast Asia, and a lot of the a lot of
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: that movement already is already under way as as we speak. Uh,
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: you know there's report of I think with U A
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: they're looking to consolidate their their their funds in uh,
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: their their coordinator investment in China because uh, if you
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: look at the bound yields, the Chinese bunk yield is
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: stable while the bunk yields is creeping up for every
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: other country, particular United States. Uh you know that that
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: that means people have the smart money, have more trust
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: in in the Chinese government at this point as a
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: maintainer of stability and peace. And and also that that
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: goes with Taiwan. You know there's a helient issue. I
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: made a joke. I'm like Taiwan can solve their helien
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: supply with a very neat trick because China have no
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: problem of getting natural gas from Russia and from Central Asia.
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: They have the pipeline for it, so they can't they
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: have their helion. And but anyway, so so I think
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: there it does provide economic rationale for some sort of
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: accommodation between Taiwan and mainland China. And and this again,
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: this is not this is why the people who talk
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: about Trump's five dimensional chance to to to come strain
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: China's energy supply. Well, look at how brilliantly that turned out.
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: I think it doesn't mean that's not how Trump himself
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: think about it, though, I mean, because there's a reason
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: he delayed his China trip. Originally, the his China trip
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: was scheduled, according to the White House, was scheduled to
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: end of March and early April would have already wrapped
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: up right now, but he had to say, oh, we
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: have to delay that to May.
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: By the way, by the.
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: Way, Chinese Chinese government have never officially confirmed those dates, right,
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: So the dates only come from the Trump administration.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: Just like the alleged letter is paying about not sending
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: weapons due wrong.
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: Yes, So unless I ain't seen the official Chinese confirmation,
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: it's not really official, right, Trump administration has no credibility
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: at this point, you know, same thing like when Scott
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: Besson said China pledged to buy like two hundred and
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: fifty billion tons of soili beans or whatever. And you
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: read the Chinese press read.
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: Out, they didn't say none of that. Scott Besson just
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: made that up.
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: And so yeah, so we have to uh if so far,
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: only only the official relief from the Chinese Government of
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: Foreign Ministry is that China is working through with the
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: American counterparts on the dates of President Trump's incomeing visits.
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: So in other words, TVD TVD.
• 48:50
  Speaker 5: But but the whole reason, the whole reason that Trump
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: had to delay his supposed visit to China was because
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: he would have shown up in Beiji was a very
• 49:00
  Speaker 5: we can right.
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, the idea is he will go to Beijing
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: with the choke code on Venezuela and you're wrong and say.
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: Ah, I got you China by the balls. But now now.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: He's going to to to to Beijing saying I'm doing
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: a blockade on the Uranian blockade, I'm straight our home moves.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: People would look at you know, shooting, people would look
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: at him like he's a fool. And and so so
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: this is why I think it was been delayed till
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: the middle of the next month. But whether that happens,
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: I think it loccupands on how this ceasefire will hang out,
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: which will run out Wednesday, and which there has been
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: well further escalation go ahead.
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: There was a reports I know you got to go
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: here in a few minutes, but there was a report
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: that they bombed, that Iran had hit a US vessel.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: So this sounds like an Israeli cease fire where one
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: side ceases in the other side fire, or you know,
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: one side ceases Israel fires. It kind of seems like
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: one of those where like no Israeli sees fire is
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: actually genuine on their side. And of course now they've
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: sent Kushner and Witkough back to negotiate with Ron. And
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: what's happened the last two times they sent those two
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: little certain ethnicity men over there to negotiate, they get
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: attacked Kushner.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: Kushner is a guy who architect is the whole Abraham
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: Accord deal, right, I mean, like, this is a guy
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: who who now created this whole map for Middle East,
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: for the greater Israel project, and you are sending him
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: to negotiate with you.
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: Wrong, right, I mean, which I guess it makes sense.
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is a war for Israel, So let
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: the guy who negotiate Israel's interest with irong But yeah,
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: this this, there's a whole series of escalation lately with
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: the United States supposedly fired on the Iranian cargo ship
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: and seizing control of it. Uh this is very also
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: very typical Trump uh type. You know, that's how his
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: negotiation tactic. Right, so it's like creating such an unreasonable
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: demand to force the other side to come down. But
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: the problem is people know his antics by now, like
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: you you can't keep on doing that, and and and
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: and and then right now, that's why Uran said, okay,
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: we're sorry, we're closing down the Straight of hor Moose again.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: You know, after a brief agreement uh over the before
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: the weekend that they would open the straight overr Moose
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: like that was off off ramp the offer to Trump.
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: But Trump had to come out with his crazy tweets
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: claim that ran surrendered and and they're gonna give up
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: there Euragranian and ur I was like, no, no, we
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: didn't say that we're gonna close down the straight over
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: her moves again and yeah.
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: So yeah, this this whole thing could drag on.
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: Longer than uh than than than than then people expected
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: which is not going to be good for the for
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: the world. Like I said, we're gonna face some serious, serious,
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: uh inflationary pressures if.
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: The war drags a long longer. This is going to
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: be worse than the oil shock in the nineteen seventies
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: which led to the decades of slack stackflation. And but you.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: Won't be good for guess what you will be good
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: for China's EV push. Chinese electric car is going to
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: be very popular now now that that oil price is
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: shooting up. So yeah, not a great job for Trump's
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: five D strategy to Contayn in China.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, you know, hopefully get some byds over
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: here in Pennsylvania. I know, last time we talked, we
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: talked a little bit about EV's and yeah, EV's from
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: domestic manufacturers. I love the General Motors ones, but they're
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: just so they're so goddamn expensive. Carl, I know you
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: got to go. I really really appreciate it, and I
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: hope we could do another one again sometime soon, maybe
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: after Trump's trip to Beijing. If you know, once get TBD,
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: where can everybody find you? And if you want me
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: to send you all this, I will after you know,
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: probably tomorrow or something like that, so gott take it away.
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm a prolific ship poster on x SO.
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: My I post under handle Carl zaj is my name,
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: and I also have I have a YouTube channel also
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: under Carl za. I also have a Patreon where I
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: post audio podcast where I've focus more.
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: On Chinese history.
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: I'm doing a chronological telling of Chinese history from the.
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: Very beginning right now.
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: I'm up to the year two hundred twenty four BC,
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: so just a couple of years before unification under the
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: First impro So, you know, as things are getting exciting,
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: if that's your couple of tea, you know, follow me,
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: give me a subscribe on Patreon for Silk and Steal podcasts.
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: And yeah, it's always a pleasure to come back to
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: your show, Kyle, you know anytime.
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: I love to talk for sure.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: All right, Carl, we'll wrap her up there. I appreciate
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: your time in and everybody, thank you so much for listening.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: And heill next Sunday. Take care of everyone, Okay, bye bye.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah