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NCAAB + NHL + NBA Best Bets Friday 1/16/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: We are on OWN seven run over the last two
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: days after tonight it was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five. I don't even know what to
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: tell you about that. I just don't want to do
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: this anymore. I have never seen anything like this.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: good day at all.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Own four that have not had a good season.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Man with wookends slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Hack Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: the Bruins arch hape?
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: who even knows?
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Man, I don't know what data is anymore. I'm not
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what data is anymore.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: yesterday did not go well for me. Own five the
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: other than potentially.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: End it all.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's Toad back with you with Toadstool Sports.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: It is Friday, January sixteenth. Yeah, check my audio here
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: real quick. We went two and a hlo on the
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: show yesterday, so I'm happy about that. Old Dominion got
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: there for us.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: They covered.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: They were winning the game by double digits earlier in
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: the game, so I thought we were gonna get an
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: outright win on that potentially, but they fell behind in
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: the second half they were able to cover, so I'm
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: fine with that. And then we got to win with
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: what was the hockey play the Sharks. The Sharks got
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: us the win, so that's good as well. My Celtics
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: and Bruins both won as well yesterday, so I'm happy
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: about that too. I gotta fix this mic cord again, man,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: I'll do it after the show. This is gonna be
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: a quick show today, I think because we have a
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: we have a small board today. Man, I'm gonna have
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: one play in each sport today.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: The board is small.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we're selecting correctly here. But yeah, the Sharks got
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: the win yesterday, not really a misleading result if you
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: look at the stats there. They they won the game statistically,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So I'm happy about that as well. Mister Pinzy, what's
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: up Alexander? What's up Kyle?
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: What's up? Your perfect day? So it's easier when it's.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: When it's when you only have two plays, it's a
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: little bit easier to go perfect. But yeah, thank you, sir, Hornets, Bruins, Warriors,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: all of the hit all right.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: Nice? So yeah, I mean I'm.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Not recommending parlaying those, but I mean if you parlayed,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: you would have won something on that as well. But
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: as you know, I don't recommend the parlays because one
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: loss takes the whole thing down and you don't get
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: good enough odds on the parlays. The books want you
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: to parlay. We only straight that here, man, We don't
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: gay at all. Right, let's get into it. We have
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: college basketball. We have Big East, Mac Big twelve, eight ten,
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: and Mountain West all in action across seven games. Yes,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: bring out the broom. We're getting getting witchy. Yeah a
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: six thirty pm we have college basketball, starting with the
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Big East match up between Creighton and Providence at Providence.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Fox Sports one has this game. I'm not interested in
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: this game. There's no real I don't see much of
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: a situation at all here. These teams haven't played yet
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: this year, they didn't face off in the conference tournament
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: last year or anything like that.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: Creighton is coming.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Off a close call, though, against Georgetown, So should Creighton
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: have beaten Georgetown by more than this? Maybe Creighton was
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: an eight and a half point favorite and they got
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: taken into overtime, So that's I guess. The only angle
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I see here is really Crayton should probably step up
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: their level of play after a game like that that
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: wasn't very good. Creighton is definitely the better of these
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: two teams. Providence is just not that good, and Providence
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: did have a big game last game against Villanova. They
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: lost by six. The game wasn't really that close. But
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: all of that being said, I think I would have
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: to lean to Creighton in this game. I do think
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: the spot is a little bit better for them, and
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: they are the better team. The oddsmakers are telling you
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: that by lining them as a favorite. Here, they're up
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: from pick them to one and a half. Here it
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: looks like it's headed towards two. It doesn't look like
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on Creighton right now. At
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: least they're a little bit of public six percent of tickets.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: But the money might be joining the public side in
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: this one seventy four percent of the cash there as well.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: I also think.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Creighton is the right side in that game, Zach, what's
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: up man? Thanks for hanging out all right? Uh, decent
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: MAC game on CBS Sports after that, Fox Sports won,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: by the way as a triple header and CBS Sports
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: as a doubleheader.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: Here six point.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Thirty pm, we have Toledo at Kent State, both decent
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: teams in the MAC. They're both one lost MAC teams
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: right now, although as the odds we'll suggest Kent State
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: is actually the somewhat better team here. Toledo just had
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: a pretty satisfying win. I would say over Ohio. I
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna overlook Kent State because Kent State's
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: been one of the better MAC basketball teams recently. But
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Toledo is coming off beating Ohio by sixteen and scoring
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: over one hundred against them. Kent State just beat Buffalo
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: on the road, which not that easy to do either Buffalo.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Although I talked to about Buffalo's overrated coming into their
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: last couple of games, I think Buffalo was three to
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: zero and Mac play to start Mac play. They faced
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: a week out of conference schedule as well, and now
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Buffalo starting to play better teams than the back. Now
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: they've lost two games, so they're not as good. But
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: that was probably a game where I think Kent State
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: was about a one point favorite and they got that win.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: Not an easy game.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: So that was a pretty good win for them as well.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Toledo actually kind of had an easier time of it.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what we want to do with
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: this game, man, I don't have a good read on this.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: Kent State is up to a five point favorite.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: The total is high at one sixty nine and a half,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: so it might be worth looking at an over in
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: this game, although I do very little with totals. Toledo
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: plays on the faster side of things. Their defense is
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: pretty weak and Kent State also weak defense. Both these
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: teams are almost in the top one hundred on Ken
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: bumb in offense, but they're outside of the top two
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: hundred defensively. Kent State plays really fast, nineteenth in the
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: count uh ken bum has them the seventh luckiest team
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: in the country though, and three hundred and fourth strength
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: to schedule, So Kent State they've actually faced the weaker
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: schedule and they're the luckier team.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: You know, I'm kind of leaning towards taking the points
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: of Toledo.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: As far as the lean in this game, I don't
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: love it, though, I think in over it might be
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: the better way to look in that game.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: And that total is way high for a reason. And
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: again you're looking.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: At capable offenses, bad defenses, and both teams like to
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: go fast. Kent State likes to go extremely fast. So
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: those are my thoughts there. The next game up is
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: the best bet you I mean, you know how I
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: do think, So you know what it's gonna be, even
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: though it seems like the early market behavior is going
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: against it. We're gonna take Baylor plus seven and a half.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: I actually think there's line value here. This is at Kansas.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: I know Kansas Allen Field House. There's a lot of
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: mystique around that place. Kansas usually does well, but you're
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: asking Kansas to win by margin here, Man, In Kansas
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: is a team that focuses.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: They focus on defense.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: They play not crazy fast or anything like that, although
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: they're playing a little bit faster this year than what
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: I'm used to out of them, but they're still in
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: the bottom half basically of tempo Now.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: Of course, really this is all about.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Kansas crushing Iowa State in the last game. Huge win
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: for Kansas. Iowa State now knocked from the ranks of
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: the unbeat and I believe Vanderbilt now is as well
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: after losing to Texas. So Miami Ohio is like the
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: only undefeated team left and Arizona. Is there any other one? No? No,
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: I forget because Michigan also lost to Wisconsin, So those
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: might be the only two huge win for Kansas, though. Man,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: that was also at Allen Field House. You could maybe
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: consider that to be the legitimizer for Kansas. I know
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: they had a decent win earlier in the season against Tennessee,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: but Tennessee doesn't look as good as the past couple
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: of years this year. And of course what did Kansas
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: do after they played that game? Well, they lost to
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Yukon after that so they were in maybe a little
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: bit of a letdown hangover all, though Yukon's good. Obviously,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: usually you'd get up for a game against Yukon. They
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: probably did, but they just couldn't sustain that amount of energy.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: But that might be a sign here that maybe their
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: energy will be lacking again in this game against Baylor.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: And I think you can tell that this line is
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: too high because you remember Baylor just played TCU a
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: couple of games back, and that was a line that
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: was like a one point line one way or the other,
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: so the oddsmaker, and it was at TCU, I believe.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: So the odsmakers are telling you Baylor is better than
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: TCU A ken bomb. By the way, also, as Baylor
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: ranked about ten to sixteen, ten to fifteen ranking spots
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: higher than Baylor, excuse me, than TCU.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: Oh just look, I'll show you.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: He has Baylor at forty, he has TCU at fifty two.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: So yeah, he has TCU twelve ranking spots behind Baylor.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: So the odds makers, power ratings, guys, ken bum whatever,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: they're all telling you.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Baylor is the better team over TCU.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Okay, well, Kansas just hosted TCU, and by the way
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: TCU took them into overtime at Allen Fieldhouse, so there
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: is some precedent here for Kansas to not do particularly
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: well at home in some of these games.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: What was the line in this game? Oh?
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Thanks, thank you ESPN forbody the DraftKings widget back up here.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: This line was between six and a half and seven.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: It was it was between six and a half and
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. It had dropped, so it went
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: off at like six and a half or seven. So
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: I just told you Baylor is the better team. Yet
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Baylor is getting more points here.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: Threw a key number that TCU was getting in this game.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: So I think that's a sign that we're getting a
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: little bit of live value here. Man, Kansas is being
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: a bit overrated because they're Kansas, you know. I mean,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: they're a good team obviously, but this is a horrible
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: spot that they're in. I think it's gonna be a
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: letdown spot after a monster win o' Rio State.
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: I wish they had a bigger game up.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Next, although they don't, but I think it's possible they
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: overlook a Baylor team that only has one winning conference
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: so far. And yeah, I think we're getting line value
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: here as well, like I said, Kansas, some recncy bias
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: factor into that line as well. Now, I like how
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: the spot sets up for Baylor because they lost three
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: games in a row. They lost to TCU, by the way,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: on the rod that was that game. I just talked
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: about where I lean to TCU in that game, by
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: the way, So I got that one right, not as
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: a player or anything, but.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: People might look at that.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Oh, Kansas beat TCU beat Baylor, so of course Kansas
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: will beat Baylor here. Also, Baylor lost to Iowa State,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: so another common opponent there, and Kansas beat Iowa State.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: So again it looks easy, right, play Kansas here. Again,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I don't think it works that way. It's all about
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: the individual spot. And what I like about Baylor here
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: is they got battle tested.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: They played Iowa Stated within ten, which is really not
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: a bad result. They lost by twenty two to Houston
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: at Baylor. Houston's really good, though, I mean, I'm not
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: gonna knock Baylor for those losses. And then what Baylor
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: did in the last game. They went on the road
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: to Oklahoma State, who's been playing well. Though I have
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: said that Oklahoma State's not as good as their record
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: looks they just played a really easy schedule.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: Baylor was able to go in there and beat.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, and I like that because it's not a
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: win that's gonna make you overconfident, but it breaks a
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: losing streak for Baylor.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: Baylor got battle tested a bit. Now.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: They've also played two road games in the conference, so
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna be totally intimidated here. You know they're
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: gonna get up for a game against Kansas as well.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: So we'll take the points with Baylor in this one man.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: And yes, I know Kansas is the better defense out
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: of these two. Baylor's not very good defensively. Baylor is
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: the better.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: Offense out of the two teams.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: But of course the thing that I like is the
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: better defense getting points. But obviously you're asking the better
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: defense to lay a bunch of points here, so we're
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: gonna be on Baylor. Really, it just comes down to
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: I think Kansas is in a big time let down
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: after a dominant looking win over Iowa State. Seventy eight
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety nine percent of the cash on Kansas.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: The line's gone up from six to seven and a
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: half here, so it did open in a range that
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: made more sense, and now it's through that key number.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to put, like how much weight
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: to put into this initial market behavior here in men
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: because I do think Kansas is gonna wind up in
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: the public side at the very least. Baylor is my
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: playing college of basketball though, Plus the points. What about Nebraska, Oh,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: they're correct, They're still undefeated. Yeah, dude, I just keep
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: forgetting about Nebraska. Yeah, they're They're still undefeated. That is correct.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: I also think, just like Miami Ohio, I think Nebraska
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: is also overrated, although Nebraska's better than Miami Ohio obviously.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: That game is on Fox, by the way, at eight
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: pm Eastern. There's no seven pm tip off, which is interesting.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: ESPN gets in it.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: Atlantic ten.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Atlantic ten game at eight thirty pm between Loyola
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Chicago and Dayton. Now for loyal to Chicago here, this
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: is a second matchup already, and Loyola Chicago lost by
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: two at home to Dayton on January third, So this
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: is one of those second conference matchups where a lot
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: of times I will like to I will look to
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: the road team if that team lost as the home
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: team in the first game. And now they're an avenging
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: road underdog similar to football NFL. That's a good spot
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: to look for, and that is what we're getting with
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Loyola Chicago here, so it might be a decent spot
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: to look for them. I don't think they're gonna overlook
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: anybody here. They are coming off a fairly tough game
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: against George Mason. But again, I don't think Loyola is
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook any team right now. Where's Dayton. It is
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: possible they overlook this Loyola team they already beat. But Dayton,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: They're just not really in a bad spot.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: They just beat Duquane. They got LaSalle next, so Dayton's
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: not really in a schedule spot where it's like a
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: flat spot in the schedule or anything. Dayton did drop
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: from an eighteen point favorite to a sixteen point favorite,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: and we're looking at a pretty low total of one two.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: I think both of these teams like to play on
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: the slower side. Dayton's in like the slower half of tempo.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: I think Loyola plays slower than that. They do so,
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: and unfortunately for Loyola, ken Bum has them as a
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: pretty lucky team and very bad defensively, so they are.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: They're definitely a down team this year. Man, But asking
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Dayton to lay all these points in an avenging road
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: against an avenging Road underdog with a low total, I'd
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: probably have to take the points with Loyola, but not
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: a play for me. Total of the excuse me, the
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: spread did drop from eighteen to sixteen. They re see
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the tickets on Loyo on a
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: date and excuse me, but one hundred percent of the
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: cash obviously can't be correct.
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: All right, Fox Sports won.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: With the next Big East game, they get two Big
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: East games and then a Mountain West game. I'm used
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: to the Mountain West being on CBS Sports, so I
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: don't know what's going on with that. But CBS Sports
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: gets the lesser Mac game. Actually they get both Mac games.
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: One am I saying? Or no, we're talking about Fox
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: Sports one? What am I saying?
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: But yeah, CBS is gonna get the Mac doubleheader. Fox
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: Sports won. Yeah, gets these two Big East games, and
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: this is the lesser of the two Big East games.
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: Man, this is an ugly game.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Marquette at De Paul, and things are so bad for
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: Marquette right now that DePaul was favored against them, and
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: probably rightfully so De Paul is actually played better than
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: they have this year.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know if ken Bomb actually has De Paul is.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: The better team, though, that would be really crazy he
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: actually does. He has De Paul six ranking spots higher,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: I believe is what that is? Eight ranking spots higher.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: Excuse me. The Marquette.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Marquette's coming off a blowout loss at Saint John's, so.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: I expect Marquette will at least try to show up
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: in this game.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: They've been just playing really really poorly, man, and this
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: is at least a winnable game for them. To Paul,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: coming in of a tougher game where they lost to
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: you Connell. That game was not close really in the
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: second half. They did lose by double digits. To me,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: I think the spot does set up a little bit
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: better for Marquette though, and to Paul, I mean, really,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: we're at a point where DePaul is a three and
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite. I know ken Bum has them
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: is the better team. Has Yeah, them is the slightly
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: better team. I just I don't really see it, man.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I think it's I think we're going a little bit
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: too far here. As bad as Marquette is sixty seven
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on to Paul ninety four percent
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming back in on Marquette. I'll agree
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: with the market on that one. In lean towards taking
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: the points of the Marquette, it.
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: Is a low total as well.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Although I believe DePaul plays slow and Marquette wants to
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: go a little bit faster, so to Paul playing slow
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: might frustrate Marquette a little bit, which is a little
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: bit of a problem. But I just don't really see
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: asking de Paul all the lay points like that, So
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: Marquette would be my lean in that one.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: Hornets, Garrett, what's up? Men? Yes? Correct? Who do the
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: Hornets beat again?
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Us?
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: I don't even remember.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: I forget what my opinion was on the game, but
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: I skipped the NBA yesterday and I wasn't great with
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: my NBA reads yesterday.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: I don't remember if I had that one right or not.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: CBS Sports, like I said, they have the mac doubleheader
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: in the.
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: The later game is the uglier game here as well.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Ohio at ball State. Ball State is the main reason
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: why this is an ugly game. Ohio did just lose
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: a win streak, though they'd won five games in a
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: row and then they just crashed down to Earth. I
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: guess if I lose into Toledo, So that type of
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: loss might hang you over a little bit, even though
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: it was a loss by sixteen points or whatever.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: Ball State, I mean, you're probably gonna get.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: An effort out of them because they haven't won a
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: game in the conference, so they'll probably continue to try
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: to give you an effort. At the very least, They're
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: coming off a ten point loss at Akron, which is
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: actually a pretty respectable resolved Akron is the best team
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: in the MAX.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: Still, despite what you you see.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: From Miami Ohio, I still think Akron is the best
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: team in this conference. Ball State was able to play
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: okay against some of that game really wasn't that close either,
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: But that means that ball State did not take Akron
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: to the wire or anything like that, so they should
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: be at least I would guess, prepared for this game.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Ohio is up from a three point favorite to a
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: four and a half point favorite. Total pretty low in
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: this one as well, one forty seven and a half.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: I would probably lean towards taking the points with ball
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: State in that one, but this one I don't have
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: much of a read on this one.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Lakers were only minus three and a half at home. Yeah,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: I kind of remember that. I guess did I think
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: I did lean to the Hornets. I forget Lakers. They're
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: just not very good. Man.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: We know they're without Reeves and whatever, but yeah, that
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: Laker team, bad defensive team.
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: The lucky for me as a Laker hater and Celtic fan,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Bakers are going nowhere this year.
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: So I'm happy about that.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna get through that gauntlet that is the
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: West Man or they're gonna have They would have to
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: get through some combination of.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: The thunder who.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think are gonna lose to any of these teams,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: the Spurs, the Rockets, and the Nuggets with Jokic, assuming
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: Jokic is back by then, yeah, that's not gonna be easy.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: The East is way more wide open. Yeah, eight and
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: EIGHTN Harvey pronounced his name. Yeah, I didn't even think
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: that was a good pick up for them. It's just, yeah,
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: kind of dumb. I remember him being pretty good in
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: college when he played at Arizona, but yeah, yeah, not
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: not a great NBA player. Mostly his defense is very relax,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: and then we do have Fox Sports with a Mountain
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: West game. Like I said, Colorado State at Boise State.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: This one kind of jumps out to me right away
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: because you have an eleven and six overall Colorado State
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: team against a nine to eight Boise team. Yet Boise
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: is almost a six point favorite in this game. Well,
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: why is that The oddsmakers are telling you Boise is
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: actually the better team here? So that has to me
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: right away kind of leaning towards laying the points here.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Although with Boise, you know, I mean, they're not really
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: a great team to lay points with.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: It's a low total, low one forties.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: Boise, he likes to play really slow, so I don't
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: love any of that as far as laying the points,
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: although that is probably the way that I'm gonna lean
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: in this game, just because the line.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: Looks really suspicious.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: But of course Boise played the more difficult out of
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: conference schedule, and that's what you're gonna see ken Bumb,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: I'm sure he will have Boise as having faced the
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: more Yeah, Boise, according to ken Bum has faced the
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: seventh most difficult schedule on the season in Colorado State
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: has faced the one hundred and eleven, so there's a
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: big strength of schedule disparity there.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: Boise faced the forty.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: Second strongest non con schedule, so much more difficult than
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: two sixty five for Colorado State. He has both teams
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: actually fairly high in the luck Index, Boise kind of
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: more in the middle mid range luck, which is in dressing.
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: Boise is the way better defense out of these two teams.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: Colorado State is the way better offense.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: Even though he has.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: Colorado State is now the slowest tempo team in all
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: of college basketball, so they're Colorado State is one of
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: those weird teams, slow tempo but no defense, and they
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: score pretty efficiently, which makes no sense. So it's it's
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: gonna be a low scoring game most likely here man.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: So I could see an under maybe making sense in
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: a game like this. I think both teams might show
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: up because Colorado State's coming up an ugly loss at Fresno.
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: I think Colorado might have been looking ahead to Boise,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: And I think the public betters are gonna come in
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: on Colorado State here because they're gonna see, Oh, Colorado
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: State just beat UNLV the game before then, Boise just
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: lost to UNLV, So how could Colorado State not cover
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: as an underdog here, right, I think that's what the
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: thought is gonna be.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: But I don't know.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: I just think Boise, I don't know, going to UNLV
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: in that game, they maybe they got caught. They were
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: coming off a game against Utah State, although I know
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Utah State blew them out. Utah State is legit, man,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: They're really good, Boise. They faced a difficult conference schedule
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: so far. They did get a win over New Mexico.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: They took San Diego State into triple ot on the road.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: We faded them with Grand Canyon the next game after that,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: because that was sandwiched in between that monster San Diego
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: State game and then Utah State on deck. So Boise,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, I've had a difficult schedule. They've had some
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: tough scheduling spots here as well. I kind of think
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: they right the ship in this one. I would still
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: lay it with Boise if I was gonna play it,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: even though I like the better defense, So I don't
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: like laying points of the better defense necessarily the market
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Reid is saying the opposite here.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: But I don't really get that.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: I don't see how seventy eight percent of the tickets
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: are coming in laying points with Boise State here.
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: There's no way.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Boise State is a public side here. Seventy two of
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: the cash on them, so less of the cash. That
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: doesn't make any sense to me. They're a six point favorite,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: but yeah, the total already seeing a little bit of
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: traction on the under there. I think the under does
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: make sense in that game. Low totals generally tend to
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: go under. They're low for reason. High totals tend to
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: go over, they're high for a reason. So that's that's
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: what I think about that game. All right, let's go
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: to hockey here. I will have one hockey play here,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: and the market read seems to agree with me on
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: the hockey game, San Jose. Our guys from last night
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: are playing on a back to back here. They're going
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: to Detroit. NHL Network has this game at seven pm Eastern,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: so this game will be televised for people that have
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: the cable sports package there like me, although I'm sure
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: you can just stream it somewhere if you want to.
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: Oh no, I'm not supposed to say that out loud.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: Uh, San Jose. They just beat Washington last night. It
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: was a nice upset win. Now, they were rested going
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: into that game, so they're not gonna be totally like.
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna have no legs right like.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: Even though they're on the back to back, they had
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: a lot of days off prior to yesterday, so I
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: don't think the rest spot is that bad. Although it
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: is still a back to back. They are still traveling
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: to Detroit. They do have to go to Florida next
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: and then Tampa on Those games are gonna be back
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: to back days Monday and Tuesday, So maybe there's the
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: possibility they overlook Detroit here, although I don't think you
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: really overlook Detroit because they're a good team. Just might
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: be a spot where maybe San Jose just doesn't have
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: their best effort, let's say Detroit. I think the spot
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: does set up better for them because they've been off
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: since Tuesday. They got shut out at my Boston Bruins.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: Now they're back home after that after getting shut out. Yes,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: they did lose a win streak, so sometimes that will
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: hang you over, but I think Detroit will show up
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: after getting shut out like that. They'll they should Gibson
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: back in that that was a win for us. Actually,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: with the Boston Bruins. I gave that out as a
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: winner on the show because you could explain that loss
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: because Detroit had beaten Carolina in overtime the previous night,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: and you knew they were gonna have to switch back
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: to Talbot, who was maybe gonna be a little bit
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: rusty in that game.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: So it was a good call, thankfully with the.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: Bruins, And you know, as a fan, obviously I'm happy
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: about that, But yeah, Detroit should have Gibson back in
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: that here.
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: I would lean to Detroit in this one.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Money seems like, I don't know, there's some agreement in
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: some ways, in some disagreement where the line did drop
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: from minus two forty to minus one ninety.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: Three on Detroit.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: But it looks like the cash percentage is on them
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of tickets seventy nine percent of the
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: cash on Detroit. Oh yeah, I mean, obviously, like I said,
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: I'm leaning towards Detroit in the game, and you'd have
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: to go with like a puck line or really like
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: a split batpuck line money line maybe on that one
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: if you want it, But I think Detroit should get
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: it done in that one. This next game, up the
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: big game of the night, really, which is not on
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: one of the TV networks. All the rest of these
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: games are just ESPN plus. But Florida Carolina, we're going
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: with the best bet in this one, and this is
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: gonna be a split bet, and it is gonna be
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: the Carolina Hurricanes.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: Garrett, there you go.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: We're gonna split bet that we're gonna throw part of
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: it on the minus one and a half puck line
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: at plus one sixty five and the other part of
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: it minus one fifty five money line.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: Here's the split. I got the calculator up for you.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Here. It comes out to a plus one oh four
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: with the way that I did it, the numbers that
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: I found on this Again, the way that you do
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: this is you put more of the bet. It comes
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: out to I don't know, probably about sixty percent of
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the bet. We'll let me see if we do it
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: based on one hundred what is it? Yeah, fifty eight
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: percent of the bet winds up being on the money
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: line part of it in this case, the minus money
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: part of it, and the amount that you win should
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: equal the amount that you're putting on the plus money
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: side of it, right, So that means that if they
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: win out right, you're gonna push the bet. If they
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: win by one, if they win by more than one,
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: you're gonna scoop the pot. So it's a little bit
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: more of a risk averse way of doing it. But
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: that's what I'm doing here with Carolina. We're gonna fade
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: Florida here.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: First of all, this is a huge revenge spot for Carolina,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: not just because Florida is two and oh against Carolina
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: during the regular season, already beating Carolina five to two
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: the last time out at Carolina, and that was in
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: a potential zigzag spot for Carolina.
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: Two.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: Carolina had lost at Florida four to three in a
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: shootout a few days before that, so Florida's two and
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: oh against Carolina to start the season.
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: But that's not the full picture here.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: This is still a playoff revenge spot for Carolina playoffs
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: because and it's not just playoff revenge either, it's Eastern
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Conference final revenge because Florida is the team that eliminated
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: Carolina from the playoffs last year in the Eastern Conference Finals,
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: so Carolina still has not gotten revenge for that. So
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: I think Carolina absolutely is gonna show up in this game,
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: and for Florida, I think the spot is actually not
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: as good for them. They've been off since Monday, so
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: you might think, oh, well, Florida's really rested here, that's
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: gonna be good for them. Right In this case, I'm
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: not so sure, because they went into that rest on
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: a two game win streak, and I keep talking about
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: this is like how I talk about the NFL buys.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: When things are working for you and you're rolling, you
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: don't want to have a lot of time off, man,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: because you can cause some rust to build up. So
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: I don't like that for Florida. Whereas for Carolina, they're
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: coming into this game also on rest. They haven't played
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: since Tuesday, but the difference is they went into that
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: rest on a two game losing streak, So I think
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: in that case the rest is good because they can
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: help break you out of that losing momentum. So I
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: like this a lot better. It's technically a return home
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: spot for Carolina, but they were only away Monday Tuesday,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: so it's not really a return from a long road
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: trip or anything. They got shut out by Saint Louis
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday, so I think they're gonna in a foul
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: mood after that. That was a horrible game, and I
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: talked about how bad a spot that was for Carolina
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: on the show because they had lost a win streak,
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: they'd lost in overtime at Detroit the night prior, they
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: had this huge game against Florida coming up next. It
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: was a bad spot.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: I just didn't give out Saint Louis as a play.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: I think it was a lean for me, but I
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: think Saint Louis was kind of in a bad spot too,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: so I stayed away. But I expect Carolina will show
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: up in this game. I like Carolina here. I also
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: like the under because it is still a big game
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: and these teams are gonna be coming out of breaks
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: and when teams are rested a lot of times, the
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: deepfense is good and the office has come out a
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: little bit rusty.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: And I know and under of course doesn't help our cause.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: With needing Carolina to win by margin here to scoop
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: this pot, but I just think that that's the way.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: This game might go.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: The money is coming into Carolina, by the way, even
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: though they dropped for minus one sixty five to minus
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: one fifty eight in the money line. Fifty five percent
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: of the tickets are on Florida, so they look like
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: they might wind up being a slightly public side, But
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: the actual money ninety two percent of the cash is
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: on Carolline according to these numbers.
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: For now, the line has gone up a little bit
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: on the total.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: By the way, it was sixty nine percent of tickets,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: ninety five percent of the cash on the over. I
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: don't agree with that though, Like I said, I think
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: an under might be worth the look in that game
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: as well, just because of the rest Alexander, you're on.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: You like Colorado and Tampa Bay both on the puck line.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about those games now. Tampa Bay at
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis. I agree with you on Colorado. Tampa Bay
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: is more questionable, I would say, laying a puck line
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: on the road. I yeah, I don't know about that.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is on this huge role right now. They've
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: won whatever this is, eleven games in a row, twelve
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: games in a row.
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what this is. Eleven I believe
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: is what that is.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Well, you can see because it's twenty nine and they
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: were eighteen. Yeah, for the number of wins, eleven games
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: in a row. They just beat Pittsburgh them in Austin Tuesday,
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: And I'm gonna reiterate again that when you're on a
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: huge win streak like this, you don't really want to
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: have days off because it can hurt you. I know
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: I said that coming too that game and gainst Philadelphia,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: and they still won. But I still think that this
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: is generally the case. When you're rolling, you don't want
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: to have time off. They just had a decent win
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: over Pittsburgh. Now they have Saint Louis on the row,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: and I mean, I don't really see Tampa Bay focusing
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: on Saint Louis. Man Tampa Bay has Dallas up on Sunday.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: So yeah, there's no way that I would lay, no
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: way that I would lay a puck line with Tampa
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Bay here on the road in a sandwich spot here,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: No way, Although Saint Louis is not really in a
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: good spot either. But Tampa Bay just crushed Saint Louis
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: back on December twenty second as well, so that's who
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: they're playing here as well.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: They might just completely overlook them.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: They beat them four to one in Tampa last time
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: they played them. I see no reason why Tampa Is
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: gonna have a Jefford in this game, and it looks
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: pretty bad to me for Saint Louis, or excuse me,
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: for Tampa Bay.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: It's not good for Saint Louis.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: Either though, because they just shut out Carolina three to
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: nothing and they've been sitting around since then, so it's
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: not a great spot for them either, although I expect
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: they probably will show up for a game against Tampa Bay,
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: so I lean Saint Louis in this game, but both
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: teams are kind of a bad spot, so I don't
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: love it.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay looks extremely public. They've already shot up.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: For minus one sixty five to minus one eighty nine
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: on the money line. I think you're laying a really,
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: really hefty price with Tampa Bay. They're given what this
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: spot looks like ninety five percent of the tickets ninety
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on Tampa Bay. That doesn't
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: look good to me either, Like it looks like they
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: just might be a very public side. I don't know,
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: but I would lean to Saint Louis in that game.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: I would probably lean towards taking them on the park
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: line and over kind of makes sense in that game
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: to me. Too, although it's one of these low totals though,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: where a low total usually indicates a lower scoring game.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: But in a game where I think both teams might
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: just not have total focus, I tend to think overs
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: make make more sense in games like that. But we'll
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: see how my total reads are because I don't know, man.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: I dabbled with the with the totals in hockey last year,
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: pretty much all on overs in specific spots, and I
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: think I won more than I lost, But I don't know.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: I just haven't done it this year. Then we have Colorado,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: Nashville at Colorado. Nashville just beat Edmonton an overtime on
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: Tuesday and then had a couple of days off. So
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: even though it's rest, yeah, I think it's kind of
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for Nashville because that was.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: A huge win for them.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: Obviously they're gonna show up for a game against Colorado.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: But Nashville's coming up a big win, They're gonna have
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: to put in another huge effort here.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: Yes, I know they have rest. I know they're starting
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: a road trip.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: Those are usually good spots, usually focus when you start
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: the road trip. Then I gonna overl Colorado, you know,
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know what else to say about it, but
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Nashville did actually go one to one against Colorado back
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: in December. They beat Colorado in a shootout in Nashville,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: and then Colorado got their revenge and beat them in
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: Colorado by two. I don't know if there's anything to
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: really take away from that, although Nashville was fairly competitive
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: against them at the very least. But Nashville having the
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: extra time off might hurt their momentum a little bit
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: because they'd won two games. Yes, it'll help them rest
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: after a tough game against Edmonton, but they may still
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: be feeling a bit high off of that game Colorado.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: I think the one thing that you do know is
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: that I think you're gonna get focused out of Colorado
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: here because they just lost to Toronto, you know, overtime
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: back on Monday, and Colorado has been off since then,
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: so they've had basically the whole week off, just sitting
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: at home waiting to try to bounce back from that loss. Now,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: one issue might be like who's gonna be the goalie here?
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: Because it looks like Wedgewood didn't play in their last
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: two games. They had minor in their which is probably
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: not good, although I don't see any injury news here,
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: so I don't know why Wedgwood wasn't playing or Blackwood.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: I guess because Colorado has been alternating between the woods,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: so I don't know. I don't know why they changed
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: to minor, but whatever, I'm expecting.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: Probably Wedgewood back in net for this one unless he's injured,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: but it doesn't look like he is.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: But we will see. I'll agree with Colorado slightly. I
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: would lean towards Colorado here puckline probably, but they're up
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: to minus two ninety six for minus two ninety two.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Huge favorite, but I don't love it. On ninety percent
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: of the tickets and one hundred percent of the cash
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: on Colorado, obviously that's not correct. They'll probably be a
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: public side, but the public has a tendency to shy
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: away from lank giant favorites like that, although they might
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: be tying them up in like parlays and stuff. All right,
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: And then we have Anaheim at the La Kings the
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: Battle of La Slash Anaheim. Here, these teams are close
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: to each other, up the highway from each other. Anaheim
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: just beat Dallas, so they could be in a little
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: bit of a let down spot here.
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: Anaheim was on a huge losing streak though, so they
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: did break their losing momentum, and I think that part
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: of it is a positive like when you're losing every game,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: as soon as you break out of that lost streak,
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: sometimes it does give you a new like a newfound
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: sense of positive momentum and you.
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: Do carry that forward.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: But I worry that Anaheim might be in a letdown
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: spot because that was a huge winning against Dallas and
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: now they've had a couple of days off.
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: The Kings.
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: Though they're not good at home, as I keep pointing out,
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: are the Kings seven ten and six at home really ugly?
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is not good on the road either, really nine
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: thirteen and two. Although this being a road game for
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is a little bit of a stretch because their
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: fans could probably will probably show up for the game
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: because it's right down the road. The Kings are also
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: coming up a pretty difficult game and they played more
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: recently Man They played on Wednesday and they took Vegas
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: into overtime, so that was a big game for LA
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: as well.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: So I guess to me, yeah, the spot does actually.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: Probably set up better for Anaheim because they at least
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: broke out of their losing streak. Both teams are coming
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: up big games. Anaheim is a little bit more rest
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: and I don't trust the Kings at home.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: The money is disagreeing, though.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Anaheim has seventy one percent of tickets and only fifty
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: four percent of the couch so the public seems to
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: be on Anaheim, which is weird. The way Anaheim's been
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: losing lately, I don't know why the public would want
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: anything to do with them, even though they did beat Dallas.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: They'd lost so many games prior to that, you'd think
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: the public would shy away from them. Anyway, Kings did
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: draw from minus one seventy to minus one fifty here,
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: so I don't know. I lean towards Anaheim slightly in
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: that game, but the market is seemingly disagreeing.
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: Then we got NBA.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: I do have one NBA play here, It's not in
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: this first game, which is one of the ugliest games
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: that we have on New Orleans at Indiana Orleans coming
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: into this game off of beating Brooklyn, so they they'll
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: probably at least carry momentum into this to start this
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: two game road trouble. Though they play Houston next. But
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: New Orleans may not really overlook anybody with the way
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: they've been playing. Indiana's coming off a loss to Toronto,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: which was two days ago, and that was coming off
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: beating my boss in Celtics, so Indiana was kind of
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: in a letdown spot to some extent.
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: There.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: They do play Detroit next, so maybe the scheduling spot's
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: a little bit more questionaim over Indiana here. Well, I
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: think both both teams have bigger games up next, though
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: New Orleans says Houston next, so I don't know. In
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: a situation like that, I go, all right, what is
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: the market telling me? Pacers are up from three to four?
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Eighty five percent of the tickets, ninety nine percent of
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Pacers, So the market is kind
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: of indicating on the Pacers right now. I guess I
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: could see that maybe them being in a bounced back
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: spot after losing and staying at home, but I don't
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: I have a good read on that game at all.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: ESPN's got Cleveland at Philadelphia, and I like this game
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: more than most of the other ones, So this is
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: not my play, but it's close. This is this is
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: a potential zigzag spot here, man, where Cleveland just won
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: at Philadelphia, and they won in a blowout one thirty three.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: To one oh seven. And I told you I liked
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: Cleveland in that game.
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: Cleveland was coming out an embarrassing loss to Utah. I
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: just thought the spot's set up a lot better for Cleveland.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: You're actually getting Cleveland as a one point dog in
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: that game or no, Cleveland, I think was a one
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: point favorite actually when the game went off. So we're
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about the line here in a minute, which
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: is part of the reason why I don't want to
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: be on Philadelphia here, but I do lean to Philadelphia
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: for sure.
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: We're here because you.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: Had Cleveland winning by twenty six, man, and now you're
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: repeating the game again Cleveland. They might just be like, yeah,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: we just beat this team, you know whatever. And Cleveland
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: does have Oklahoma City coming up next, which is looming
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: there on afternoon on I believe that's that must be
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: Martin Luther King Day, right, which is why we have
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: afternoon in NBA on NBC and Peacock, So.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: That is a big game.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: I know this is an ESPN game, but I think
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia has more reason to show up in this game.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be the team and has the adjustments to
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: make off of that loss. That's how the zigzag works, man, Like,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: when everything worked for you, like Cleveland, you have nothing
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: to fix, whereas for Philadelphia, things went wrong, so you
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: have things to fix. Philadelphia only plays Indiana next, so
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: I think the spot does set up a lot better
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: for Philly. Now looking at into the box score here,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: it was a little bit misleading in some ways. Although
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Cleveland did out rebound the Sixers, so yeah, they did.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: They did kind of dominate the game in some of
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: the more predictable stat the predictable stats of this game.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: But Philadelphia had a horrible shooting game man forty percent
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: from the field, twenty eight percent from three. Cleveland was
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent from the field and forty three percent
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: from three. So that made this game look a lot
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: worse than maybe it would have been otherwise.
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: So Philly's shot horribly, Cleveland shot.
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: Kind of out of their mind, So I think you
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: do have to expect some regression there in both directions,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: Like Philly's probably gonna shoot better this game and Cleveland
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: probably can't possibly shoot as well, So I think we're
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: gonna see that happen in this game, So I do
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: like the sixers here. Problem is, you're getting one point
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: in the first game with the sixers, but now you're
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: having to lay three points with the sixers. So there's
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: not a lot of line value here with the sixers.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Even though if I was gonna play it, I would
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: still play the sixers or maybe look for a money
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: line on them or something. Sixers up from one and
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: a half to two and a half. Here seventy eight
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash on the sixers,
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: so the money looks like it is.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: Kind of agree with me on that. Now.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Part of the reason why the line did move is
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: because Garland is out for the Caves. He played in
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: the last game, although he played like twenty six minutes
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: or something, so he might have gotten hurt during that game.
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: Garland is out. But is Garland alone enough to.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: Move this line like basically three points or whatever from
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: where it was in the prior game.
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: I think that's a little bit of a stretch.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: So again I worry there's not that much line value
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: there on the Sixers because the books know about the
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: zig zag at this point, man, so they know they
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: have to adjust this line to some extent in the
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: opposite direction of what the previous game would tell you.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: So I think they are doing that a little bit here.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: I like the Sixers in the game, but it's not
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: on my card. Oh, we have Chicago at Brooklyn. This
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: is somewhat of an ugly game too. Man, it's crazy
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: that Brooklyn is favored in this game. I don't know,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: well what SOB might have to say about that. Brooklyn
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: has flipped from a one point doctor a two point
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: favored here. The public, you would think would be on
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: the Bulls just seeing that, Like, why would you want
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: to lay points with the Nets in any scenario basically,
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: But we see fifty to fifty on the tickets and
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: eighty percent of the cash on the Bulls, So the
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: money looks like it is coming back on the Bulls now.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: Part of the reason why the Nets are favored is
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: obviously because Josh Giddy is still out for the Bulls
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: and he is their best player. The Bulls just barely
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: got by Utah in their last game, so you think
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: the Bulls might actually show up with some focus here.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: The Bulls are coming off a pretty difficult game against
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: Houston the game before that, where they came to within
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: six of Houston on the road, So I think you
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: can kind of see why the Bulls didn't play that
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: well against Utah and they still won, so that can
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: carry some momentum into this game.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: But they also might be more focus here. Brooklyn. They
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: were turning over from a road trip. Technically they've been.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: A wasted Sunday, so not the longest road trip. But
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: I do talk about it when teams are turning over
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: from road trips some as they are a bit unfocused
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: and they have to get back to home life or whatever,
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: and Brooklyn has to go right out onto the road again,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: right out on the road again, play Chicago on Sunday.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: So they play Chicago in a home and home here,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: So having that single game at home, very quick homestand
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: to actually get stuff done at home a lot of times,
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: that's not.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: A good spot.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: So I actually do agree with Chicago in this game,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: but it's not a strong opinion for me, even though
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: the Nets lost every game on that road trip, culminating
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: and losing to the Pelicans. But I do think the
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: spot is a little bit better for Chicago. There we
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: have the Clippers at Toronto and the Clippers despite their
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: seventeen and twenty three overall record in Toronto be twenty
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: five and seventeen. The Clippers are favored in this game,
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: and there really isn't any injury that's really coming into
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: play here. Clippers up from one and a half to
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: two here, sixty seven percent of tickets, eighty eight percent
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: of the couch on the Clippers. The oddsmakers are really
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: basically they're telling you the Clippers are the better team here,
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: and they're really just telling you the Clippers really just
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: didn't coalesce. I don't want to follow them, not what
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: am I doing. The Clippers just were not living up
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: to their talent level early in the season, and now
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: they're on an eleven and two run over the last
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: thirteen games. Man, So the Clippers playing much better basketball,
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: and the only losses in that stretch were to Boston.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: My Celtics annihilated them in LA. Looks good for the
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Celtics given what the Clippers have been doing recently. And
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: then the other loss was at the Knicks. So the
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: Clippers have been playing well recently. They're coming into this
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: with some momentum. They just beat Washington in their last game,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: who cares. Starting a road trip, usually you are focused.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: So the Clippers, I think they're in a decent spot
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: here Toronto. They're in an okay spot as well.
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: They just took a.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: Single game trip to Indiana and beat Indiana. But the
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: problem is they're back home for this one game and
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: they start a road trip and play the Lakers next.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: So maybe it's possible they look ahead to the Lakers
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: just because there's all that mystique surrounding the Lakers. So
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: I actually do agree with closing some of my taps here.
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: I do agree with the money in this one. I
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: agree with the Clippers in this game. And again, the
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: line just looks so suspicious, like how could the Clippers
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: with a losing record be favored on the road against
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: a team of the winning record? Right, So the line
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: just looks really weird. So yeah, I lean to the
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: Clippers in that one. Minnesota at Houston is the second
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: game of the ESPN doubleheader, a pretty good game. Both
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: games are actually fairly good games on ESPN. There one
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: East Coast battle and one or one Eastern battle in
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: one Western about East Conference Eastern Conference I can't even talk,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: and one Western Conference Minnesota just crushed Milwaukee in their
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: last game, which I didn't expect because Minnesota had beaten
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: San Antonio in the prior game, so I thought that
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: was a bad spot for Minnesota, and they crushed Milwaukee
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: by thirty three points. I thought they might be looking
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: ahead to Houston as well. I thought they were in
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: a Texas sandwich, but apparently not. That barbecue brisket sandwich
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: or whatever didn't wind up tasting very good. Minnesota killed Milwaukee.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: Now they're continuing the road trip here. You know they'll
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: show up for a game against Houston. I mean, you
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: is gonna be one of the teams to beat in
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: the Western Conference.
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: Houston is on a back to back as well.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: They played yesterday and I thought they were gonna put
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: in a better effort. They did not play well. They
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: lost by twenty to the Thunder at home. And yeah,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: the Thunder or elite, we know this, but the Thunder
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: also dealing with a couple of injuries there. But Houston
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: did not really compete in that game, so it was
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: not a good game for Houston. Now Houston's gonna have
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: to play in a back to back.
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: Here, which is a little bit difficult. Man. So the
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: rest edge definitely goes to Minnesota here. Both teams should
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: show up in this game. The money is actually coming
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: in on Houston.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: I'm from four to four and a half year, sixty
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: one percent of tickets on Houston, seventy six percent of
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: the cash on Houston.
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: Now, I could see the argument being, well.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: The te Wolves are coming off of a thirty plus
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: point win in the Rockets are coming off of a
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: twenty point loss. So when you see that combination of things, yeah,
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: usually I want to be on the team that just
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: lost by twenty or whatever.
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: That is what the money is saying.
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: But of course I have concerns about it because of
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: the rest scenario and whatever. Although that should be factored
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: into the line, but the fact that the Rockets are
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: four and a half point favorite, it doesn't look like
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: it's being factored into the line that much.
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: So I do worry about that.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: Market reed is saying the Rockets for what it's worth,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: but I have a lot of concerns about that one.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: And then obviously that means my final play is this
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: last game, and oh yeah, we're going right back to
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: a team that hasn't done that well for us recently.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: We're gonna take the Washington Wizards plus the points against
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: the Kings. I mean, first of all, you're really the
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: Kings are gonna be laying seven and a half here.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: Come on, man, we have seventy one percent of tickets
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: on the Kings with seventy three percent of the cash
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: coming back on the Wizards here, So the money looks
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: like it's agreeing with me on the Wizards in this one. Now,
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: as far as the Wizards are concerned, I just think
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be looking for a win of any kind, man.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, they've lost four more games in a row.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: They're already in California, and they've only played one game
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: between tonight and Sunday, so they're not at a rest
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: disadvantage or anything like that. Yeah, they play Denver next,
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: but and that's tomorrow. But I just don't see Washington
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: overlooking anybody right now. With the way they've been playing.
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: I think they want to get a win. They're staying
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: at California at least, going up from LA to Sacramento,
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: so they don't have to adjust to a time zone
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: or anything here.
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: I think they're gonna show up.
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: Whereas for the Kings, they're numerous reasons why I think
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: the Kings were in a bad spot here.
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: First of all, look at what they just did.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: Man, they just beat Houston, the Lakers, and the Knicks
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: all by double digits, all in a row. I mean
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: there's gotta be a letdown spot here at some point.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Maybe it'll be here against Washington, Like, how could you
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: possibly come off of those three huge games and then
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: still put in another used effort, Oh, you're gonna get
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: excited about Washington now? I don't see that, man, After
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: the Kings have been playing horrible basketball for a long
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: time and there's still not a very good team, and
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: you're now asked them to lay seven and a half
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: here where I think in those three prior games that
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: are an underdog and all three of them pretty significantly.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: I think they might have been a double digit underdog
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: in this game against the Knicks. Yeah, ten and a
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: half eleven. So now you're saying that this team just
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: went from an eleven point underdog at home to now
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: e seven and a half point favorite at home. This
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: is something I talk about in the NFL a lot
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: week to week when you see a team shift from
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: being a giant underdog where the public doesn't want anything
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: to do with them to being a favorite where the
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: public wants them.
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: That is a major red flagman.
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: And yes, there is another reason why the Kings are
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: this much of a favorite, which I'm gonna talk about
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: in a minute, because there is injury information here that's
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: effecting the line. But yeah, I just think this line
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: is going way too far here. I think there's definitely
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: some value in fading a bad Kings team when you're
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: asking them to lay this many points in a spot
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: where they've won three huge games in a row and
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: I'm guessing they were double digit dogs and all all
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: three games. Yeah, they were fourteen and a half point
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: underdogs against the Rockets against LA Actually they might not
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: have been double digits.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: Let me see they probably, Yeah, they were nine and
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: a half. It was close. I was gonna say it
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: might have been eight or nine.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but still close to pulling off three straight double
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: digit underdog upsets. And by the way, they played Portland next,
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: and I think that's still maybe a little bit.
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: Of reason for a look ahead.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: I think that's a game that means more than Washington
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: does because it's a conference game and Portland just swept
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: a home and home against them.
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: Back in late December late December, but not in sixty three.
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: The Kings lost both of those games, one at home
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: and won on the road. So there's a little bit
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: of a double revenge angle here for Sacramento in their
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: next game here against Portland. So there are a lot
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: of problems for Sacramento in this game. And then the
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: reason why they were seven and a half point favorite is,
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, guess who's coming back after being gone for
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: a long time. Oh yeah, that would be Sabonis, the
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: King's best player. He's been out since no excuse me,
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: November sixteenth, so he's missed two months, literally two months
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: of action, and now you're asking your star player to
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: come back and it looks like he's going to because
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: he was a full participant in practice here. Let me see,
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: I just saw that on the injury information. Hold on,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: I have my Sabonis jersey somewhere too. He was a
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: full participant in practice yesterday. So to me, based on
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: the fact that the Kings are seven and a half
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: point favorite here, the fact that he fully practiced yesterday,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: I think he's coming back tonight.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: So what does that mean?
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's the reverse injured player spot here. Man, when
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: you have your star player coming back after a long absence,
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: especially when the team has started playing really well without him,
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: winning three straight games as giant underdogs, I think that's
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: a bad thing, man, because the team might be thinking, hey,
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: we're already doing really well. Now we get our best
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: player back. This is gonna be really easy, you know
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: what I mean. You have a tendency to kind of
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: just take your foot off the gas, and then teams
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: are gonna have to I mean, the team is gonna
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: have to.
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: Fit back into their roles.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: Whoever's filling in for Sabonis is gonna have to go
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: back to a bench roll Sabonus is gonna have to
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: get used to being in now. Of course, some teams
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: are kind of smart about it and they ease their
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: players in, right, So it's possible that Sabonis plays, but
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: he just doesn't play that many minutes or comes off
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: the bench or whatever. But the thing is, if they
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: say he's playing, that's still gonna impact the line. So
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: there's the thing about the reverse injured player theory is
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: that when the player comes back, the line overreacts to
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: him coming back.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: And this looks like it was gonna be five.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: And a half and now it's up to seven and
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: a half. I think it even if it's just two points,
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: it might be a little bit of an overreaction here
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: because again he's had a really really long layoff. There's
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: gonna be some chemistry stuff that needs to happen. And again,
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: if he doesn't play his full compliment of minutes, well,
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers basically have to line the game like they
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: think that he is because they don't really know how
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be used. So I kind of have to
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: line the game thinking that he's basically gonna be a starter.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: So in games like this, I think you want to
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: fade that team with the star player coming back, you
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: get line value on it. The team usually doesn't gel
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: like completely right away in that first game, and they
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: again tend to take their foot off the gas a
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: little bit. And I think it also sets up for
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: maybe playing some props under on Sabonis, right, because the
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: prop market kind of has to come out there and
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: put numbers out like they think he's gonna be playing
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: his full minutes and maybe he won't, and with him
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: having all this.
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: Rust to shed and whatever.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but I would also in a situation
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: like that, I would be looking to play props on
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: that player under as well.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: So that's the way that I look at it. But
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: the play here is the Wizards plus the seven and
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: a half. That's gonna do it.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: Man. We do get the key number on both those
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: basketball games our show today, not too battled. I thought
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: it might be a little bit shorter than that because it's.
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: A short board.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: But we talked about every game we got three plays,
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: one in each sport. We got the key number, at
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: least in the basketball place. We're gonna be on Baylor
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: plus the points to seven and a half against the
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: letdown spot Kansas. We're gonna be on the Carolina Hurricane
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: split bet puck line money line there to finally get
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: some revenge against Florida there and what I think is
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: a better rest spot for them, more advantageous rests for Carolina.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: And then we're gonna be on the Wizards plus the
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: seven and a half against the letdown spot plus reverse
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: injured player spot Kings. And that's gonna do it, man. Yeah,
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: the load, that's what she said, mister Pinsey. Yes, I
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: appreciate it, mister Pinsey. Garrett Alexander Zach, everybody that was
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: in here today, Kyle Tyson, I appreciate it, man, Thanks
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: for everybody. I hope Jeffrey's okay. He might have no
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: money left or something. I don't know where he's at,
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: but that's gonna do it. Learn it tone on Twitter,
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: learn it tone on Instagram, like subscribe to the channel here,
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: give me good comments.
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: I appreciate all that.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: Listen on audio, give me good reviews on Apple, Spotify
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: on audio.
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: That helps me as well. Covered in you because the
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: Yuke channel on YouTube. You can check that out.
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com, slash learn to Town. I know I
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: have to keep up with that. I haven't been doing
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: a good job with that at all. I apologize, but yes,
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: I have to get back to that, the Patreon content
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: or the fulfilling requests really so I will do it.
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: I've got to do it. At least one more for
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: Charles and then one for that other guy. So I'm
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: gonna try to do those, and then.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: A Loser cast of course, the comedy panel podcast and
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: I'm on you can check that out as well. I
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: think we kind of gave up on the Thursday night
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: attempts there. I was on one of the Thursday night shows.
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: It seems like you just can't get the group together
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: for it. Although Adam Nutters still refuses to come on
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: on the Tuesday night late show, the one that we
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: the typical time that we do it, so I don't know.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's gonna happen with that, but we
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: still are doing the Tuesdays and then I'll be back tonight. Unfortunately,
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: with a huge college basket, I'll show that usually takes
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: two and a half hours. I might have to started
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit earlier, at least start my handicapping early.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: It took me an hour and a half to handicap
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: the board, and I think I go quick with it too,
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: because I'm just looking for situations and if I don't
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: really see when, I just kind of eliminate the game.
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: Like it's kind of like how I play poker, right,
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: Like be tight aggressive in poker, Like, don't play too
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: many hands at all, you're folding a ton of hands.
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: That's how I play poker.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: But when I'm gonna get involved in a hand, I
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: get like pretty aggressive with that particular hand when I
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: think that I have some sort of edge, you know,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: Like that's what you do. So That's kind of how
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: I do it with the basketball handicapping as well. I'm
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: just folding real quick on a lot of the games
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: and then finding the good ones. So we'll see what
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: happens with that. And then we'll see what happens with
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: that dude who was in my chat the other day
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: from just Win baby Bets something like that, something Al
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: Davis related. Even though I believe they are East Coast guys,
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: so I don't know why the Raider reference there, But
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: I may be talking to those guys soon and so
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: we'll see how that goes. I don't know, but yeah,
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: we'll see. That's gonna do it for me for now.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: And then of course the NFL playoffs resume tomorrow as well,
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: so of course you'll talk about those.
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: Games in the morning.
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's no rush usually the way that I
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: do NFL, I'm usually fading the public, so usually there's
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: no rush to get to the NFL.
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: Like usually it's.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: Fine to jump in on the NFL the day of,
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: but I don't know how many plays I'm gonna have
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: when there's only four games in the NFL. You know,
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: get a little bit more sele like with as selective
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: as I am. I might have one play, we'll see,
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: but I will give my opinions on those games that'll
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: do it.
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: For now, peace,