Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 8/6/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Wet Corn Belt Forecast and Beef Trade Warnings

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 8/6/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Wet Corn Belt Forecast and Beef Trade Warnings · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to AgSquawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell with Ag Bull Media.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Today we're gonna talk about that Stone X survey again, imports versus exports and beef and what's going on over there with SpaceX.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that here in a bit.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Looking at the livestock markets and where they closed yesterday, feeder cattle chopped up and down eventually deciding, and live cattle deciding to go up on the day.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: Lives closed at one dollar and fifty-eight cents up at two twenty-nine and a half.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle were at three forty-eight and thirty-eight cents, about at two and a quarter.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs were at 84.35 down a dollar and thirty-three cents.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: As we quote the markets live here with our quotes from plus 500 T4 trading software from plus 500 is what we use to trade the markets every day here at Ag Bull.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: Mostly kind of a chop around overnight.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: Corn's down just slightly.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Sep corn is at 435 and three-quarters.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: Beans are at$11.55.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: And Chicago wheat September contract is at 641.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: We'll continue to keep you updated on that throughout the day.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: Crude oil obviously had a downward move earlier in the week.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Recently hasn't done just a whole lot, which is surprising with what's going on over there in the Middle East and in the Strait of Hormuz.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: The September contract and crude is at 7583.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Well, on to our weather discussion for today.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: And it's kind of the same story that we've had the past couple Ag Squawk AMs.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: I'll go ahead and pop up this chart brought to us from Mr.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: Craig Solberger, in-house meteorologist here at Ag Bull Trading.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to be notably wet for the corn belt over the next five to seven days, as you can kind of see those blue and purple splotches up there from Ohio all the way to Iowa.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of rain will continue to fall there.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: As I've been driving around recently, I have seen some standing water.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: Luckily, the drainage has been holding in for most farms.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: And I know a lot of farms have invested in drainage the past five years or so.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: Um so that's good to see, but it can only hold out for so long if we're going to continue to see this rain.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: The complete polar opposite story, however, for the bottom half of the country, the Southern Plains heat will intensify starting August 9th with temperatures running 10 to 12 degrees above normal with highs consistently over$100.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: There is about 10 days out, a glimpse of rain on the forecast for Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas there.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: So keep our fingers crossed for them.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: The Mid-South could probably use a drink as well.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's unusually dry for them this time of year.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: I had this chart on yesterday.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: It's the Stone X's August survey.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: And I had some people call me afterwards and be like, Well, I'm really glad that you brought this up because some people don't like it.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: And some people are like, Well, I've never really even heard of this.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: What is the Stone X survey?
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I'll break it down for you real quick.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: Stone X is a clearing firm and offer trading software.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: Well, obviously, we use plus 500, but Stone X also, for the past 20 years, does a survey through their customers of crop conditions and crop reporting, and it starts in August and goes through November.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: The cool thing is that it's independent, it's not controlled by the government in any any way.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: And if you want to put on your tinfoil hat and say that you know the USDA likes to influence the market and what they put out in the grain reports, this isn't one of those.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, it's owned by a private business that does their own individual reporting.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: So it's interesting to compare these back to one another.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: Um, we always just like to say that, well, more information is just always better.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: So we like looking at all sorts of charts.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: The livestock market discussion is exports versus imports, U.S.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: beef and veal trade, import surge, and exports slide.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: The green line, of course, at the top are the imports.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: And it's really just been because Australia has taken off here recently, kind of passing Brazil, even in the number of imports they send to the United States.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: What I think is more concerning is the blue line down below.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: We are not exporting enough beef to countries because we say, well, we're the premium supplier of beef here in the United States.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: We put out the best product, we kill more prime cattle than anyone else.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: Well, if that's so, we need to be pushing that blue tick up just a little bit.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: Because if we let other countries take the portion of the market, which are the select lien cuts, if we give them an inch, they'll take a mile.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why we talk about rebuilding this herd.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, we know that having more cattle in the market, more supply, equals a lower demand.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: But at the same time, if we don't have enough supply at all to stay competitive in a competitive market, the most efficient producer wins.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, are we the most efficient producer?
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: Who knows?
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: But it's something to stay on our radar with regards to domestic food production.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: So we want to make sure that that stays secure and we can keep it secure by ensuring that we also export enough to keep the in the domestic producer profitable.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: On to the chart of the day.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: I figured I'd pop this up.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: That is SpaceX.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, on the when we first started doing Ag Squawk, we talked about SpaceX's IPO.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: And when they IPO'd, they were at they IPO'd it up 135.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, they shot up to close to 220 up there in the top left corner of their chart.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: Then they're down all the way at 108 and a quarter.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: That is 20% below their IPO.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: That is a huge amount of volatility.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: They went to dang near double of what they IPO'd and then fell back to below half of that.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: Huge, huge just absolute volatility in that new new market to the marketplace.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: SpaceX's first public quarter earnings beat on revenue, interest before earnings or before interest tax and things like that, and per share loss.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: But even though they beat expectations, the stock fell 13.6%, anyways.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: It's really crazy to compare large companies like this and the amount of capital that they control versus certain ag industries.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: And we needed to just always watch out, watch outside markets because rising tides or falling tides change the course of all ships.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: The economic calendar for today, export sales come out at 7:30 a.m.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: Job reports and jobless claims and natural gas storage change all come out at the same time.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: That's central time for you guys out there.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: Follow us on our socials.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to be doing a very good job here of just trailerly pushing our social medias and making sure that whenever you check your phone, even if you don't have time to watch a video throughout the day, you can watch a 15-second clip somewhere on our social media.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: I know that's the way as a young 20-something, that's how I consume a lot of my news is through my Instagram reels and TikTok.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: So make sure and follow us there.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's all I have for you today.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure to tune into Mr.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: Davis Michelson this afternoon with AgSquawk.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: Once a month, he updates us on fertilizer prices.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: This is something Davis has done for about, I think, 12 years or something like that, where he personally tracks fertilizer cross, collects his own data, processes it, processes it, and then does a show to talk about what fertilizer prices are doing.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: These days, it's very important to know.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and watch that this afternoon.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thanks for watching and thanks for listening.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with Ag Bull Media.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.