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Why Does My Grocery Bill Keep Going Up? · Becoming Financially Confident

• 0:37
  Why does that same cart of groceries cost $40 more than it did last year?
• 0:42
  Now, listener sent me her receipts.
• 0:44
  Same store, same 10 items, eight months apart.
• 0:49
  The difference made her stomach drop.
• 0:52
  So today I want to talk about what's actually driving your grocery bill up.
• 0:55
  And it's not what most people think.
• 0:58
  But bigger than that, I'm going to give you a simple system that can claw back real money without living on rice and beans.
• 1:05
  So stick around today.
• 1:06
  Going to be super practical and we're getting into it right now.
• 1:20
  Hello and welcome to Financially Confident Christian.
• 1:22
  I'm Ralph Estep Jr.
• 1:24
  And I just want to thank you so much for joining me today.
• 1:27
  I have got a super question today and the listener asked me this.
• 1:31
  Why grocery bills keep climbing and what you can actually do about it?
• 1:35
  Like I said, this is a super practical episode because a lot of listeners, and you might be one right now, feel like you're doing everything right.
• 1:45
  But when you get to that checkout, that cart total just keeps rising and there's this quiet exhaustion of budgeting carefully and still watching the number creep up.
• 1:55
  Anyway, I've got some real practical answers today, but maybe you've got a financial question you could use my help with.
• 2:02
  I would love to help you.
• 2:03
  You can reach me by going to financiallyconfidentchristian.com/question We'll put a link right in the show notes, but again, that's financially confidentchristian.com/question Well, let's get right into today's listener question.
• 2:18
  Listener writes this hi Ralph, I keep a spreadsheet.
• 2:22
  Now, like I said, this listener is engaged, but let me continue.
• 2:25
  She said, I keep a spreadsheet.
• 2:27
  I know that probably sounds obsessive, but after the last couple years I started tracking every single grocery strip because I felt like I was losing my mind.
• 2:37
  I buy mostly the same things every week, same brands, mostly the same store, same family of four to feet.
• 2:45
  Now, eight months ago, my weekly grocery bill averaged around $165.
• 2:50
  Last week it was $211.
• 2:54
  So Ralph, I went back and compared receipts item by item.
• 2:58
  Some things went up a little, a few things went up a lot.
• 3:01
  And a couple items are basically the same size box for the same price except the box got smaller, which honestly made me kind of angry when I noticed it.
• 3:12
  I've already cut out the extras.
• 3:13
  No more specialty coffee.
• 3:15
  No more prepared meals from the deli counter.
• 3:18
  We're not buying snacks we don't need.
• 3:20
  I clip coupons when I remember to.
• 3:22
  I use the store loyalty app and the number still Goes up every single month.
• 3:27
  Now, honestly, Ralph, my husband thinks I'm imagining it or that I'm just bad at shopping.
• 3:32
  I don't think either of those things are true.
• 3:34
  I think something bigger is going on and I don't know what to do about it besides just accepting a smaller and smaller grocery list every year.
• 3:44
  Ralph, is there actually a strategy here?
• 3:46
  Or am I just supposed to get used to paying more for less?
• 3:50
  Thank you.
• 3:51
  I want to tell you, to be blunt, you're going to have to get used to paying for less with more money.
• 3:57
  That's where we are today.
• 3:59
  Because the truth is, your grocery bill is being squeezed Now.
• 4:02
  I actually believe it's being squeezed by two directions at once.
• 4:05
  Now, most people only see one, but I'm going to get into what both of those are today.
• 4:10
  Because when you can understand both of those things, it's going to stop you from feeling crazy and.
• 4:16
  And you're actually going to find some control.
• 4:18
  So let's start off with the basics.
• 4:20
  If you listen to my show, you know, I always like to name what's actually happening here.
• 4:24
  And like I said, I think there's two things going on here.
• 4:27
  One is very straightforward.
• 4:28
  It's price inflation.
• 4:30
  That's simply the same item costs more.
• 4:33
  You check through your list and you're like, ralph, this used to cost this, now it costs this.
• 4:38
  That is inflation.
• 4:39
  That is what we're seeing in the economy.
• 4:41
  The second one, that a lot of people don't think about.
• 4:43
  I'm going to use a funny word here, but.
• 4:45
  But it's shrinkflation.
• 4:47
  You mentioned it earlier.
• 4:49
  Your package shrinks, but the price stays the same or climbs just a little bit.
• 4:54
  Think about the cereal boxes.
• 4:56
  It used to hold 18 ounces.
• 4:58
  Now they hold about 15 ounces on the same shelf price.
• 5:02
  And it's designed to be missed.
• 5:05
  Grocery prices overall have climbed past general inflation over the last several years.
• 5:10
  And your spreadsheet just proves that.
• 5:13
  So I'm going to tell you right now, your husband's wrong.
• 5:14
  You're not bad at shopping.
• 5:16
  The math actually changed underneath of you.
• 5:20
  So how do you combat that?
• 5:21
  Well, the first thing you knew, you got to find some clarity.
• 5:23
  So I'm going to encourage you to do something.
• 5:25
  Go do a real unit price audit.
• 5:28
  I remember as a kid walking through the grocery store, I would say to my mom, I see all these tags on it, but I don't understand what this means.
• 5:35
  Almost every grocery store is going to print on there something called the unit price.
• 5:40
  It's usually printed in small type under the sticker price on most shelf tags, and they're not going to make it obvious, but it's usually there.
• 5:48
  That's prices per pound, prices per ounce, per count.
• 5:52
  It's not the price on the box.
• 5:55
  So that bigger box, it's so many things.
• 5:57
  Well, if I buy a bigger box, I'm going to save money.
• 5:59
  Isn't automatically the better deal anymore.
• 6:02
  You've got to really look at that unit price.
• 6:06
  Store brands and name brands can differ 30 to 40% for the same unit unit price.
• 6:13
  So here's one things you can do right away.
• 6:15
  Pick your five most bought items and compare once this week.
• 6:20
  It only take you about 20 minutes, but see, the difference is there.
• 6:24
  Compare that unit price, not the sticker price.
• 6:26
  That will not get you where you need to be because if the box had shrunk or if the count in there has shrunk, you're not going to see it because that's where the real number lives.
• 6:35
  But now you might just say, Ralph, what you said at the beginning, hey, prices are higher.
• 6:38
  Yes, they are.
• 6:39
  Are.
• 6:40
  So one of the things you can do to combat this is build a rotating meal list, not some rigid budget.
• 6:47
  A strict dollar budget breaks the moment prices shift and prices are going up.
• 6:51
  The price of meat is higher, the price of eggs is higher.
• 6:54
  Price of some things has come down and when it breaks, it feels like a failure.
• 7:00
  So one of the things that I encourage people to do is build a list of 12 to 15 meals your family actually likes.
• 7:06
  It doesn't make any sense to buy stuff they don't like, that you're just wasting money.
• 7:10
  But build a list of 12 or 15 meals your family actually likes and that you can afford and rotate through them and then look at what's cheap this week.
• 7:19
  You know, a lot of times grocery stores have deals.
• 7:22
  Buy whatever's cheapest that week and you'll still know what's for dinner.
• 7:26
  Shop the sales, don't shop the recipe, shop what's for sale.
• 7:30
  Go back and look at the things that your family's actually going to eat.
• 7:33
  Because meat and dairy and produce, they swing the most week to week.
• 7:38
  But if you've got that flexibility and you've got a list of things that they will eat, that's going to save the most over time.
• 7:45
  So budget the meal, not the ingredients, and let the ingredients move.
• 7:50
  But I'm going to encourage you to track three numbers.
• 7:53
  You have a spreadsheet.
• 7:54
  I can only imagine this.
• 7:55
  It's almost like a pivot table you've got going on here.
• 7:58
  But I'm going to encourage you to track three numbers and not everything.
• 8:02
  If you fully itemize tracking, it's going to burn you out in about six weeks.
• 8:07
  I see this from people all the time and I see it happening time and time again.
• 8:11
  Here's the thing.
• 8:12
  I'm going to encourage you to track just three things.
• 8:14
  Track the total spent, the cost per person, per week, and the top five most expensive recurring items.
• 8:22
  And that's enough signal to catch a real trend without turning grocery shopping into a second job.
• 8:27
  My wife and I have had this very discussion.
• 8:29
  In fact, we just had the discussion this weekend.
• 8:32
  I said, it seems like grocery prices are going up and up.
• 8:35
  She goes, ralph, you have no concept of what things cost.
• 8:38
  So now we're doing this together and we can revisit those three numbers once a month, not every trip.
• 8:43
  And she was very kindness with me.
• 8:44
  She said, ralph, there's certain things you like and certain things you don't like.
• 8:48
  The things that you happen to like cost more.
• 8:50
  Well, you know, I can't really argue with that.
• 8:52
  So I guess we're going to have to expand our horizons then.
• 8:55
  So track enough to see the pattern, but not so much that you quit tracking altogether.
• 9:01
  But then I want you to do one more thing.
• 9:03
  You got to stop apologizing for the adjustment.
• 9:07
  This is just where we are.
• 9:08
  This is the reality of where we are.
• 9:10
  Maybe now you've got to buy different cuts of meats.
• 9:13
  Maybe you've got to use more store brands or maybe a smaller portion.
• 9:16
  Hey, we could all tend to use lose a little weight.
• 9:18
  I know I can.
• 9:20
  That's just math responding to the reality of where we are.
• 9:24
  And see, your husband's comment kind of struck me a little bit and it came from not seeing the receipts.
• 9:31
  It's not like you're doing anything wrong.
• 9:32
  You're doing your homework.
• 9:33
  You're doing more than what most people do.
• 9:37
  So today, go show him the actual eight month comparison because those numbers will settle those arguments that those feelings can't.
• 9:45
  You might say it feels like the prices are going up.
• 9:47
  And you're like, yeah, let me show you the evidence.
• 9:50
  Families managing this well aren't spending less effort.
• 9:53
  They're spending effort on the right three or four things.
• 9:58
  And just realize this.
• 9:59
  Adjusting your cart isn't losing.
• 10:01
  It's just paying attention and being flexible to the realities on the ground.
• 10:07
  But I want to go a little deeper now because you're carrying something a lot of people carry quietly right now.
• 10:13
  And that's frustration.
• 10:15
  It's that frustration at doing the responsible thing.
• 10:18
  You are doing all the right things, my friend.
• 10:21
  You're tracking, you're planning, you're cutting back, and you're still watching the number climb anyway.
• 10:27
  And it can start to feel, like you said, it can start to feel like no amount of effort is enough, like you're out rowing against this current that nobody else seems to notice.
• 10:38
  But I want to tell you right now, faith doesn't promise us that prices will come back down.
• 10:43
  I actually don't think they're going to come back down.
• 10:46
  And it doesn't promise us that our efforts are always going to show up as a smaller total at checkout.
• 10:53
  But here's what faith does promise us.
• 10:55
  It promises is that God sees every effort itself.
• 11:00
  And that provision doesn't run on the same math as a gross receipt.
• 11:03
  This is what he promises.
• 11:04
  Look at Philippians 4:19.
• 11:06
  It says, and this same God who takes care of me will supply all of your needs from his glorious riches which have been given to us in Christ Jesus.
• 11:17
  Now, I want to key on a word here.
• 11:19
  Notice it says needs.
• 11:21
  That doesn't necessarily mean comfort or convenience.
• 11:25
  And it's aimed right at seasons like this.
• 11:27
  This may be a time where you have to not have those comfort foods and not those convenience foods God promised to provide for us.
• 11:36
  But your spreadsheet is a form of stewardship.
• 11:39
  It's not about anxiety.
• 11:40
  You're putting the numbers on the paper and it's done in the spirit of paying attention rather than panic.
• 11:46
  I love this thing, by the way.
• 11:49
  Feeding your family well is the work that God has given you.
• 11:54
  And it matters to God when the receipt is frustrating to you.
• 11:58
  So hear me on this.
• 12:00
  And if you're fighting the same battle, you're not failing at this.
• 12:05
  You are honestly managing a generally harder season with real care.
• 12:10
  And that care is seen by a God that loves you.
• 12:14
  So again, you're not imagining this increase, you're documenting it.
• 12:16
  You've got the receipts.
• 12:17
  As they say, that's not paranoia, that's stewardship.
• 12:21
  That's managing reality.
• 12:23
  Most people just complain you've built a system.
• 12:27
  So here's your win for today.
• 12:28
  I want you to pick your five most purchased grocery items and check that unit price against the store brand version.
• 12:35
  Now, you might say, rob, I don't care for the store brand version.
• 12:38
  Do me a favor, take a look at it.
• 12:40
  Look at the unit price and test it out.
• 12:43
  You might actually like it.
• 12:45
  Grab last week's receipt or open the store app and find those five items on the shelf.
• 12:49
  Your next Trip, write down that unit price or both, name brand and store brand.
• 12:54
  Now, I'm not telling you to go overhaul your whole pantry.
• 12:57
  Just five items.
• 12:59
  And just reframe the whole thought.
• 13:02
  This one small check usually finds $10 to $15 a week.
• 13:05
  Yes, 10 to $15 is not a small out without changing a single meal that you eat.
• 13:12
  Well, let's get into our Bible verse.
• 13:14
  I've already mentioned it today.
• 13:15
  It's Philippians, chapter 4, verse 19.
• 13:18
  And it's worth re saying again.
• 13:20
  And this same God who takes care of me will supply all your needs from his glorious riches.
• 13:25
  Man, he's got the riches which have been given to us in Christ Jesus.
• 13:31
  You're in a season right now where the needs feel bigger than they used to.
• 13:36
  And that's exactly where we can rely on God's promises.
• 13:39
  That's exactly where that promise is aimed.
• 13:41
  It's not telling us the price is going to drop.
• 13:43
  It says your needs will be met.
• 13:47
  So do that unit price audit.
• 13:48
  Rotate that meal list.
• 13:50
  Those are practical hands that God can work through.
• 13:54
  You're not replacing trust.
• 13:57
  You just bring in his partnership to it.
• 14:00
  Well, how do we pray together?
• 14:01
  Heavenly Father, I just want to thank you for this listener in that quiet, careful way she's managing her family's table.
• 14:06
  She is doing a fantastic job, Lord, and she's tired of watching numbers climb while she does everything right.
• 14:13
  And I ask you right now, Lord, that you meet her in her tiredness today and give her comfort, Lord.
• 14:19
  Give her clarity as she compares prices and builds her meal list.
• 14:24
  Not more confusion and not more overwhelmed or feel like she's failing.
• 14:28
  Give her words to explain the real numbers to her husband so you can face this together instead of being at odds with each other.
• 14:36
  Provide for this family, Lord, and provide our actual needs even in this season when prices keep moving.
• 14:43
  And remind us all, Lord, that stewardship done with care, not from a place of fear, honors you.
• 14:52
  And you'll meet our needs, Lord.
• 14:54
  And we just ask this in Jesus name.
• 14:57
  Amen.
• 14:59
  Now, friend, you came in here feeling like you were losing a battle nobody else could see.
• 15:03
  But now, if you listen to what I said, I've given you a few things that you can do.
• 15:08
  The prices aren't in your control, but our response to them is in our control.
• 15:13
  And that's where the power actually lives.
• 15:15
  So just to recap, here's today's takeaway.
• 15:17
  Understand both components, the inflation and the shrinkflation, they're both hitting at the same time, and they're both putting pressure on that cart.
• 15:26
  So do that unit price audit of the top five items.
• 15:29
  Build that rotating 12 to 15 meals instead of that rigid dollar budget.
• 15:33
  And then track those three numbers.
• 15:35
  Not every item, every trip.
• 15:37
  And let go of that idea of adjusting your shopping, meaning you're failing.
• 15:42
  You're not failing.
• 15:43
  You're just being living in the real math.
• 15:46
  Now maybe you've got a question for the show.
• 15:47
  I would love to hear from you.
• 15:49
  You can send me a voicemail.
• 15:50
  It's super easy.
• 15:52
  Just go to financiallyconfidentchristian.com/voicemail we'll put a link right in the show notes.
• 15:58
  You just click on that link and hit record.
• 15:59
  It's really that easy.
• 16:01
  Financiallyconfidentchristian.com/voicemail thank you for joining me today.
• 16:06
  As I always say, I want to encourage you to always stay financially savvy.
• 16:11
  May God bless you and you have a truly great day.