Latest / The Fourcast / Israel Hamas war: will Trump’s Gaza ceasefire deal last?

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Israel Hamas war: will Trump’s Gaza ceasefire deal last? · The Fourcast

0:00
Hello and welcome to the forecast.
0:02
A ceasefire deal has finally been agreed between Israel and
0:05
Hamas after 15 months of appalling carnage.
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So why has it only just happened now?
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Does it have anything to do with the soon to be President Donald
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Trump and what happens next for Israel and of course, for the
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Palestinians? To discuss all this and more, we
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have international editor Lindsay Hilson and our foreign
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affairs correspondent Sukanda Kamani joining us from Tel Aviv.
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Welcome to you both. Let's start with you, Sukanda.
0:29
What's the mood like there today?
0:30
And does everyone agree that this was really down to Donald
0:34
Trump and his Middle East envoy breathing down Bibi Netanyahu's
0:39
neck? Well, in terms of the mood, we
0:41
saw celebrations in Gaza last night, people waving flags,
0:46
coming out on the streets, cheering.
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We then also saw Israeli strikes continuing because the ceasefire
0:52
isn't coming into place until Sunday.
0:56
I had thought, and perhaps others in Gaza had thought, that
0:58
there would be a de facto cessation of hostilities until
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then. But dozens of Palestinians have
1:04
been killed overnight. I saw one video of a a young man
1:08
shaking or looking on on the body of his his younger sister
1:12
who had been killed saying wake up Hala, wake up.
1:15
The the war is over. So the war is still not over.
1:19
And there are of course fears that potentially this is not
1:22
necessarily the longer lasting end to the war that that
1:26
everyone hopes it will be Here in Israel.
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The mood is also one of cautious.
1:31
There's this mix of of hope and anticipation amongst those
1:34
Israelis, the many, many Israelis who are so desperate to
1:37
see the Israeli hostages returned back home.
1:40
But there's also a a sense of dread that perhaps something
1:42
could still happen that would scupper the deal.
1:45
We might be able to reach the first stage of this deal, which
1:48
would see 33 Israeli hostages returned over a six week period
1:52
in which there's of course an end to Israeli bombing.
1:55
But but perhaps we might not reach the second phase which
1:58
would see the remaining hostages released in exchange for a
2:02
longer lasting ceasefire. So everyone's very much kind of
2:05
in this mix between, between hope and hope and fear.
2:10
I have to say, I don't think I've ever covered a ceasefire
2:12
deal that didn't involve more fighting before the actual
2:14
ceasefire started. So I'm personally, I'm not that
2:16
surprised by it. Lindsay, Donald Trump, he's, of
2:19
course, you know, was straight out-of-the-box yesterday before
2:23
the deal had even been announced, crediting himself
2:26
with his, you know, extraordinary diplomatic powers.
2:29
But you know, he's not entirely wrong, is he?
2:31
Well, I think that what is happening is that the arrival of
2:36
his envoy, Steve Vitikov, has, you know, is turbocharged these
2:41
negotiations because the deal, as I understand it, is pretty
2:44
much the same as the deal which was on the table in May.
2:48
Now, the Israelis are always saying that it was Hamas that
2:50
held this up. But actually the far right
2:53
members of the Israeli cabinet, so Smudge and Bengavir have
2:57
boasted that they were the ones who held this up until now and
3:02
didn't let it happen. And they're still saying that
3:04
they don't like it. But then you ask the question,
3:08
how could Trump and his envoy pull, you know, push this over
3:14
and maybe there is some kind of bigger deal going on?
3:17
Because we know that the far right in Israel wants to annex
3:22
the West Bank. It wants far more settlements.
3:25
It wants to go against many decades of American policy
3:30
there. And Donald Trump, I don't think
3:32
he really, he certainly doesn't care about the Palestinians.
3:34
He might be in agreement with with that.
3:37
And so maybe there is some other kind of deal which is going on
3:41
as well. We don't know.
3:43
Are we certain that, you know, Ben Gavir and Zmotrich, the
3:46
finance minister, both, you know, on the extreme side of the
3:49
cabinet, will pull out of the coalition?
3:51
And if they do, does the coalition then fall?
3:54
And does there's have to be another election or maybe a
3:56
minority government? Yeah, it's, it's a big question.
3:59
I mean, it, it seems that the that, that Netanyahu will be
4:03
able to, to get the the vote on this agreement through the
4:06
cabinet because the vast majority of of the government,
4:09
the cabinet are in favour of it. Indeed, the vast majority of the
4:11
Israeli public are certainly in favour of it.
4:15
But Benguv, you're dealing with these two far right parties who
4:21
are members of the coalition, only commanding, you know,
4:23
between them around 10% of the vote, but really wielding this
4:27
undue huge political influence in Israel because of the
4:32
coalition nature of the government.
4:35
As Lindsay said, Benguvit boasting that he has personally
4:40
prevented a deal taking place on a number of occasions in the
4:44
past. He has indicated that that he
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will leave the government. There's a questions remain about
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whether Smotrich, the other party, religious Zionism would
4:53
also leave the government. The current noises that we're
4:55
hearing that he he certainly opposes the deal, but that he is
5:01
willing to to go along with it and not leave the government on
5:04
the condition that after the first phase the war is resumed.
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And that's why I think, you know, after this initial six
5:12
week period, that's where the real test is going to be.
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And we we've heard that in the past from, from Netanyahu, when
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we talked about these previous iterations of this deal,
5:20
Netanyahu seemingly scuppered it because the, the, the Americans
5:24
and were saying, you know, yes, we're not going to give a
5:27
written assurance that the war will come to a complete halt,
5:30
but we are going to do do everything we can to ensure that
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it does. And Netanyahu came out publicly
5:36
and said, you know, very belligerently, we will keep
5:39
fighting after a temporary pause.
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And that that, of course, you know, send a very clear message
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to Hamas that, well, you know, you're giving up, as they would
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see it, their biggest form of leverage in return for not a
5:50
permanent end to the war. That that's always been the
5:52
fundamental disconnect between the two sides.
5:54
And that disconnect may unfortunately rear its head
5:58
again after the first phase. But you know, you have to
6:01
consider that you know the vanity and the reputation of
6:04
Donald Trump here as well. And Lindsay, as, as, as, as much
6:08
as you and I know Donald Trump and the soul of Trump, he'll be
6:11
very upset if after six weeks or five weeks into his term as
6:14
president, second term as president, suddenly the fighting
6:18
resumes again. And people will say, well, what
6:19
was that all about? Yeah, I think that that's true
6:23
because he wants, you know, he said they'll be all hell to pay
6:27
if this war doesn't come to an end.
6:29
But, you know, six weeks is a is a long time in international
6:33
politics. And he's going to have Ukraine
6:35
on his mind. He's going to have all the
6:36
domestic stuff on his mind as well, trying to deport all all
6:40
those foreigners that he says he's going to throw out of the
6:43
out of the country. So the Israelis may feel that
6:46
they have enough time to to play with.
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I think the other question is what advantage would the
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Israelis gain from restarting the war?
6:55
Because because obviously if they did just restart the war,
6:57
that would indicate that they had negotiated in bad faith at
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this point. And also not all the hostages
7:05
are going to be released in this first phase.
7:07
There's supposed to be 33 released in the first phase,
7:12
women, anybody over the age of 50 and so on.
7:15
But there will still be others soldiers and younger men and so
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on. So I don't think that Hamas is
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going to give up all of its all of his bargaining chips.
7:26
Do we know sick what Trump's team or Trump himself actually
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said to Netanyahu last weekend? Because I know there was a,
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there was a, you know, there was, there was some raised
7:37
eyebrows because Steve Witkoff was in the region, I think on
7:41
Friday and then rang up the prime minister's office and
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said, I'm coming to Tel Aviv tomorrow morning.
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They said, oh, you can't possibly come.
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It's the Sabbath. You know, he's going to be busy
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on the day of rest. And they say, well, we don't
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really care about that. We need to see him.
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And then they did meet, and that's when those words were
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spoken. Do we know anything else?
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Yeah, I mean, fascinating details about that conversation
7:59
and and unexpected really. I mean, when you look at Steve
8:01
Witkoff's history, I mean, he's, he's, he's a, a real estate
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tycoon someone, is he? Doing from the Bronx, you know,
8:07
but he's got a salty tongue, apparently.
8:09
Indeed, and you know, I see people crediting that kind of
8:14
unorthodox background with being a straight talker, someone who's
8:17
willing up the ante and really raise the pressure on on
8:22
Netanyahu. I mean, I think what also will
8:24
have definitely been a factor is that whilst Biden, you know,
8:28
Biden, the Biden administration was there, Netanyahu would have
8:32
been looking and thinking, well, I've always got the option of of
8:35
waiting to see what Trump does as and when he takes power.
8:39
And perhaps he will be more on board with the idea of
8:42
continuing the war after all. I mean, the you look at the kind
8:46
of language he was using on the campaign trail.
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It was all very pro Israel. It was very much about, you
8:51
know, Hamas must be destroyed. You look at the confirmation
8:53
hearings that have been taking place.
8:55
You hear the same kind of language from from, you know,
8:58
senior figures who are going to be part of the administration.
9:02
But but clearly, you know, he Trump has not deviated from from
9:07
his call for an end to the to, to the war before his
9:11
inauguration. And, and you know what Lindsay
9:13
was saying about the difficulties that the Israelis
9:15
would face in in resuming the war.
9:18
I think, you know, very much hold and not least because so
9:21
many members of the Israeli public would be outraged because
9:25
that, you know, there is a very sizeable majority of people here
9:29
who want to see, you know, this deal going through to its
9:32
conclusion. They want to see everyone come
9:34
back. Speaking to the father of one
9:36
Israeli hostage, a young male soldier who would only be
9:40
released in the second part of the the deal just earlier today.
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And he was saying, look, we are going to be, you know, we are
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continuing to fight on the streets.
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We're going to be raising all the public pressure that we can
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and trying to, you know, speak to to other international
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players, including the Trump administration about to try and
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keep the pressure on the Israeli government to make sure that
10:00
that that goes that goes through.
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What game is Trump playing here, if he's playing a game at all?
10:07
Because on one hand, he's got Mike Huckabee as his ambassador
10:10
to Tel Aviv, or I should say Jerusalem, because of course
10:13
they moved. You know what bits of the
10:15
embassy there last time he was president?
10:17
He refers to the West Bankers, Judea and Samaria.
10:21
On the other hand, we know from the Abraham Accords and from
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Trump's own sort of declaration that he is desperate to do a
10:29
deal which involves the Saudis and Israel.
10:32
But of course, the Saudis will only come on board if there's
10:34
something in it for the Palestinians.
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And of course, at the end of all this, Trump sees himself very
10:39
much on the white, the South Lawn of the White House, the way
10:41
the Clinton was. Yeah, with a Palestinian leader
10:44
to be determined and the Israeli Prime Minister, whoever that
10:47
will be at the at the time. And then of course, of course,
10:50
you know, the big ceremony in Stockholm for the Nobel Peace
10:52
Prize, which I'm sure he wants because Obama got one and he
10:56
wants one as well. Look, there's a contradiction at
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the heart of the Trump policy on the Middle East, and I think
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you've just really explained it. So on the one hand, Trump and
11:06
the people around him are very much in favour of settlements.
11:12
They would like to annex the West Bank, which is what
11:15
Smotrich and Bengavir and other members of the right in the
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Israeli. All of it, or just some of it?
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Certainly some of it, a large part of it.
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And when you look at the West Bank now, I mean it, it's no
11:28
longer any kind of contiguous piece of territory which the
11:35
Palestinians could easily have as their own state, because the
11:39
Israelis have made sure that it's completely divided up by
11:43
roads, which only Israelis can use and, and the settlements put
11:47
in very strategic places and so on.
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It's always been that, but ever more but also now.
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So it's very, very difficult for that to be a proper Palestinian
11:55
state. And so, yes, they would
11:57
certainly like to annex some large parts of it.
12:01
So that is one part of the policy.
12:04
But the other part of the policy, as you say, is a grand
12:07
bargain involving Saudi Arabia and Mohammed bin Salman MBS, who
12:12
is the power in there in Saudi Arabia.
12:17
He's not going to agree to the total end to all Palestinian
12:23
hope for their own homeland. He's just not going to agree
12:27
that partly because of lording Palestinians, but also many
12:31
Palestinians would be extremely skeptical about Gulf support,
12:35
but also because of his own population and then the and the
12:38
wider Arab support for the Palestinian cause.
12:42
And so that is the the circle that that Trump has to square.
12:46
And at this point, I think it's very, I think it's very hard to
12:50
see how that how that works. So let's talk about the
12:54
Palestinians here and especially Gaza.
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I mean, do we know what plans there are for the for the
13:01
governance of Gaza if and when the Israelis finally leave?
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What about reconstruction? Who's going to pay for the
13:09
reconstruction? And, and once, you know, some of
13:12
that has started, you know, who's going to be running the
13:14
show? Is it going to be a new version
13:16
of Hamas? Will it be Fatah?
13:18
You know, the people running the show in Ramallah in the West
13:21
Bank? Tell us what you know.
13:23
These are all key questions, but, and the key questions that
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basically we don't have the answer to, I mean, in terms of
13:28
the scale of the challenge, it's, it's huge.
13:30
I mean, you know, Israel's assault on Gaza has been one of
13:33
the most ferocious in, in history suddenly in, in modern
13:37
times. I was looking at statistics and
13:39
it's 2/3 of all buildings in Gaza either destroyed or
13:43
damaged, 40 million tons of rubble and debris that have been
13:47
created by that. You know, there are estimates
13:50
that that it would take years and years and years just to
13:52
start clearing that that away, let alone rebuilding.
13:55
Of course, you've seen this huge attack on the healthcare system,
13:58
universities, everything there. So the, the scale of the
14:01
challenge is, is is huge. Added to that, I mean that what
14:05
most of the international community, certainly the West
14:08
wants to see is that the Palestinian Authority who are in
14:11
charge and or of of part or help administer at least parts of the
14:15
the of the of the occupied West Bank playing a role in, in Gaza.
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Netanyahu has always been categorical in opposing that.
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That seems to be a red line for him.
14:28
It's been one of the kind of the key points of contention between
14:31
him and the Biden administration.
14:33
We saw Anthony Blinken, you know, just the other week laying
14:36
out a plan for the future of Gaza, which would involve the
14:41
PA, would involve support from Gulf states who would be, you
14:45
know, sending money, perhaps also contributing security
14:49
forces to, to help resolve the law and order situation, which
14:53
is one of the key obstacles in delivering aid right now.
14:56
You know, as well as just the, the sheer amount of aid that is
14:58
able to, to, to, to cross in. But but you know, where does
15:03
that leave Hamas, for example? I mean, they are still there in
15:06
Gaza. I mean, we saw last night there
15:09
were images of, of some of their fighters on the streets masked
15:12
with their guns taking part in, in the, the celebrations.
15:17
They're not going to disappear. I mean, even in the, even in the
15:19
occupied West Bank, to be honest, frankly, there haven't
15:22
been elections in, in a long time.
15:23
If there were elections, Hamas would win.
15:27
Impression when I was there last, that's the impression I
15:29
got in Ramallah, in other parts of the West Bank.
15:32
The last time that elections was I think 2006.
15:34
If they had them again, Hamas would probably wipe the wipe the
15:36
board I. Mean that might not happen in
15:38
Gaza. I mean, you, you know, we hear
15:40
from, from people, obviously, you know, Israel bans us from
15:42
being there on the ground ourselves as an international
15:45
journalist. But it, it seems that there's,
15:47
you know, people on the ground there have a lot more resentment
15:50
to, to Hamas for, for their role in, in, in this conflict.
15:54
So perhaps they, you know, they, they would not win.
15:56
But but certainly the Palestinian Authority, Fatah are
15:59
not particularly popular in in any case, but you know, trying
16:04
to square the circle of, of, of working out who would run Gaza
16:08
in the future if it's not the PA.
16:10
Because very, I mean, you speak to the Israeli white wing and
16:14
there are the ideas seem, you know, frankly totally farcical
16:18
of some kind of international mandate of, of countries or
16:22
maybe moderate Arab states. But, you know, where does that
16:25
leave, you know, any Palestinian agency, what kind of Arab
16:29
country would want to be seen as as doing effectively the job
16:32
that the PA, the Palestinian Authority is doing in the West
16:35
Bank? They're accused of being
16:36
collaborators with with Israel, of cracking down on, on what
16:41
many people see there as resistance forces.
16:44
Would Egypt, the UAE want to be risk being portrayed and that
16:48
kind of role, it would be disastrous for them so.
16:50
And Lindsay, I mean, we know that the Saudis are probably
16:52
prepared to write a very large check for the rebuilding of Gaza
16:55
and maybe the Gulf states as well.
16:57
But they will want to know who's gonna be running the place.
16:59
I'm sure they won't want to do it themselves.
17:02
Who do you see in charge of what's ever left of the Gaza
17:05
Strip at the end? No.
17:06
If I could see who was in charge, maybe I'd have a
17:08
powerful position that I don't have as a mere.
17:11
Judge, I'll give you the job, Lindsay, I'll give you the job
17:13
if you want it. Yeah.
17:14
And. I think you know, well,
17:16
Secunda's just been talking about, you know, how the PA is
17:20
seen as basically as the Israel, Israel's cats poor in the, in
17:23
the West Bank, but also corruption.
17:26
And the, the PA is unbelievably corrupt.
17:30
It and it has been unbelievably corrupt over many, many years.
17:33
And that is the reason back in 2006, long time ago when I was
17:39
in Gaza, the people voted for Hamas rather than Fatah because
17:43
they saw Fatah as corrupt. And Fatah is the PA and it has
17:46
only grown more corrupt. And the idea that you're going
17:50
to have billions of Gulf money come coming in in order for the
17:54
PA and Fatah to what, steal it. I, I can't see anybody who's
18:01
going to think that that is a good idea.
18:04
And so I, I have no idea who can, who can possibly run Gaza.
18:11
And unless you have some kind of new force that comes up.
18:14
And I'm very interested in what Sikanda was saying that you
18:16
could still see Hamas on the streets last night.
18:19
I was doing something today which said that the Israelis
18:22
thought that Hamas had at the beginning of this war about
18:26
30,000 fighters in 24 brigades. They still think that they have
18:30
more than 15,000 fighters. Now many of those fighters will
18:33
be new fighters because they have killed an awful lot new
18:38
fighters who you know as yet are inexperienced on.
18:40
But there's still quite a lot of fighters.
18:42
The other thing that that shows, if those statistics are, are
18:46
correct, is just how many civilians have been killed.
18:50
And that's the other thing which I think we shouldn't lose sight
18:53
of when we're discussing the strategy and so on, is the
18:56
people in Gaza are in deep mourning.
18:58
There is not a family that hasn't lost someone.
19:02
And many have lost, you know, nearly everybody.
19:05
And so we deal with a population that is unbelievably
19:08
traumatized, extraordinarily angry, still very, very
19:14
deprived. I mean, they're talking of
19:16
getting aid in 600 trucks a day to come in, bringing in 200,000
19:21
tents and 60,000 temporary homes and so on.
19:25
But you're going to get all of these people going back to what
19:28
were their homes in northern Gaza, in Gaza and finding that
19:31
they have nothing and no prospect of anything.
19:35
So governing a people like that, that's an that's incredibly
19:40
difficult. Of course, and all the scar
19:42
tissue that's accumulated over the, you know, not just over the
19:45
last 15 months, but even before that.
19:47
I mean, the, the piano would obviously say that they are,
19:49
they're not corrupt. But I have to say, you know,
19:51
even if they say that, frankly, the impression that I got on the
19:54
streets of various West Bank cities was that people, though,
19:58
were really fed up with the people who've been running them
20:02
for quite a long time and. And, you know, they don't, they
20:05
just don't think that, you know, the people in the West Bank have
20:08
got, you know, the government there has got a mandate anymore.
20:11
And the question I guess is, is, you know, is the PLO courageous
20:14
enough to go to the people at some stage and say we're going
20:16
to have an election and we're prepared to deal with any nasty
20:19
surprises? Just finally to both of you.
20:22
And I'll start with you, Lindsay.
20:24
I mean, when I spoke to Gershon Baskin, the, you know, the
20:27
former hostage negotiator, you know, one of the most optimistic
20:29
Israelis left in Israel and there's only about 6 of them, he
20:33
said, you know, that it is the darkest hour before dawn.
20:35
You know, this has been so terrible, but it is so bad
20:39
what's happened in the last 50 months and there's been so much
20:42
suffering on both sides that actually there has to be
20:45
something positive that comes out of this.
20:46
There has to be what he likes to call the Belfast moment where we
20:49
end up with a sort of Israeli style Good Friday Agreement.
20:53
And of course, what he's talking about like Biden, maybe even
20:57
like Trump, although I've not heard him say it, is the two
20:59
state solution. Is it possible, do you think?
21:04
And I don't care whether you're being optimistic or or
21:06
pessimistic here, Lindsay, but just be realistic that we get
21:09
something like that, some horizon of dignity for the
21:13
Palestinians that will involve self determination like we
21:17
haven't seen ever before at the end of all this process.
21:19
First you, Lindsay. If the Israelis wanted that, I
21:24
think it might be possible because Israel is in a very
21:27
powerful position now. It's more or less destroyed
21:30
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Assad has fallen in Syria.
21:35
Their arch rival Iran is fundamentally weakened.
21:40
The Palestinian problem is leadership.
21:42
But there is a potential leader and his name is Marwan Barghouti
21:46
and he is in prison now. If in this prisoner swap, you
21:53
know, swap of prisoners for hostages, you Marwan Barghouti
21:58
was released, there might be a possibility of Palestinians
22:03
rallying round a leader who has said and has said to me, because
22:09
I interviewed him in prison, that he wants a deal.
22:11
The Israelis say that he's a terrorist, but he says that he
22:15
wants a deal. That's what he's always said.
22:17
So you can see that kind of potential scenario.
22:22
I, however, think it is highly unlikely that the Israelis would
22:26
release Marwan Barghouti, because I do not think that this
22:29
Israeli government wants a deal. They don't want any kind of
22:34
Palestinian state. They do not want any kind of
22:38
credible Palestinian leadership because they see their strengths
22:43
as coming from Palestinian weakness and Palestinian
22:47
division, and that is the way Netanyahu has always played.
22:51
It indeed. I was going to say, that's the
22:53
way he's always rolled, isn't it?
22:54
Let's be honest. And, and Netanyahu is, you know,
22:58
I remember him last year coming out and, and, and taking credit
23:02
for having blocked the creation of, of, of a, of a, of a
23:05
Palestinian state. In fact, in the Knesset, the
23:08
Israeli parliament, though there was a, there was a vote, not
23:11
necessarily legally binding, but nonetheless, you know, very
23:13
indicative of, of where even opposition members voted in
23:20
favour of a, of a resolution saying that there should never
23:23
be a Palestinian state. And I think that that
23:26
unfortunately speaks to the current mindset that there is in
23:30
Israel right now where, you know, just as I was arriving,
23:34
you know, into Tel Aviv the other day, there was a Israeli
23:37
passenger on our, on our plane coming in from, from London who
23:40
had overheard like my conversation with with other
23:43
colleagues and said, you know, before, before October the 7th,
23:47
she said, you know, I thought that there was the possibility
23:50
of, of us living together And, and, you know, even if it would
23:54
have been difficult. And now, you know, I no longer
23:57
no longer see that after, after in her words, what, what they
24:00
did to us on that day. And, you know, the trauma of
24:02
October the 7th is still very is, you know, present for, for,
24:06
for Israelis. You know, by the same token, I
24:08
mean, let's talk about the trauma of the people in, in
24:11
Gaza. I mean, you talked about the
24:13
sheer number of, of, of people of, of entire families that have
24:16
been, that have been wiped out of children who have been
24:19
orphaned. I mean, I think it's something
24:20
like 19,000 orphans or, or children with at least one
24:25
parent who've been, who've been killed.
24:27
What's that generation going to grow up thinking?
24:30
I mean, if you look at the trajectory of, of, of
24:33
Palestinian resistance as they would see it to, to the Israeli
24:36
occupation, it, it's, it's increasingly got more violent.
24:40
I mean, you, the first father was, you know, largely by
24:43
contemporary standards, fairly peaceful sticks and stones.
24:47
Second Intifada was, you know, we saw many more suicide
24:51
bombings October the 7th, more people, more Israelis killed in
24:54
the day than the whole second Intifada.
24:56
You know, the trauma that has been inflicted upon the people
25:00
in, in, in, in God and also in the West Bank.
25:03
I mean, not to the same extent, but, you know, record numbers of
25:05
people, you know, killed in, in the occupied West Bank by
25:09
Israeli forces, huge numbers of, of, of, of, of Palestinians
25:12
there in detention, many of them not facing or certainly not
25:17
convicted some of the, many of them in what's called
25:19
administrative detention. So they're basically detained
25:22
indefinitely. What, what is this generation
25:25
going to grow up thinking? It's hard to envision them also,
25:28
I mean. The one thing I and the one
25:31
thing I would add to both of you is also that, you know, for
25:33
something like the Good Friday Agreement to happen, for
25:36
something like the Belfast moment to materialize, you need
25:40
kind of honest political leadership that both sides can
25:44
trust. And I just don't see that at the
25:46
moment. I think, you know, it's it's
25:48
possible that the Palestinians will trust Trump a bit more
25:50
after having, you know, breathed down Netanyahu's neck, but but
25:54
maybe not if he's got people like Mike Huckabee as
25:56
ambassador, you know, in, in, in Israel.
25:59
So I think all those doubts that we've just discussed and that
26:02
you so brilliantly outlined are the things that probably prevent
26:05
some honest broker from coming forward and saying we need to do
26:09
this deal because if we don't do this deal, it'll be a forever
26:12
war for both sides, you know, until the end of time.
26:15
And and we can't have that. So I'm not sure whether we're
26:18
there yet, but I mean, you know, the next few weeks or months
26:20
will be really, really fascinating.
26:22
And there'll be so much drama unfolding as, you know,
26:25
Palestinians return to their bombed out houses, you know, and
26:28
prisoners are let out of Israeli jails as the hostages return to
26:32
their families. And we don't really know where
26:34
the emotion of that unleashed political moment will lead us
26:38
to, but it would definitely lead us to another really fascinating
26:40
podcast. So Lindsay Hilsum, Sakana
26:42
Kamani, thank you very much to both of you.
26:44
That's it for the the forecast for me here.
26:47
Matt Frye, I'll see you soon.