Latest / Dynasty Sports Life / Dynasty Sports Life Ep 215 Craig Bozic on basketball ADPs

Transcript

Dynasty Sports Life Ep 215 Craig Bozic on basketball ADPs · Dynasty Sports Life

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The In This League Podcast Network. This is Dynasty Sports Life,
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: a podcast about playing fantasy baseball, basketball, football, and hockey.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: 365 days a year. Here's your host, Jesse Sevier. Welcome
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: to the Dynasty Sports Life. This is Jesse Sevier, ready
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: to talk to you about the wonderful world of Dynasty
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Fantasy Sports. Many sports and much action. The baseball season
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: is coming to a conclusion. Perhaps your season has ended
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: by the time you're listening to this.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: If you're in a Roto League, I guess you're playing
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: for one more week, but I'm pretty much done. I
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: am actually in two Roto Leagues this year that will
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: go to the end, but the outcomes of both of
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: those are pretty much foreordained at this point. And then basketball,
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: hockey coming right up. Football, week two. just ending as
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I record this and will be ended by the time
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: you listen to this. Today is going to be all
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: about the hoops, about the basketball, and about my friend
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Craig Bosich, right after this. Back on the show today,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: a man who absolutely knows how to crush an afternoon nap.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: It's Craig Bosich. How are you doing today, Craig?
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I've crushed it today, Jesse. I think I'm not...
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: 97 minutes. No alarm. No alarm. Probably just getting over
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: last night's red zone. But no, I probably needed it.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: It's been a bit of a whirlwind few weeks. I
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: lost my mother, lost my pet rat. Plumlee passed away
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: as well. So Plumlee's gone. To be fair to Plumlee,
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: he was at the end of his rat life. But
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: he had what's called a lost coordination and declined quite
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: gradually over about five weeks and then he stopped eating
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: and drinking and i've looked to see how long he
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: could last like that and it says 24 to 48
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: hours and he went about nine days so he was
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: a double r bastard but and yeah and then probably
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: the worst of it all was losing to nate last
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: sunday in the first round of the fantasy football um
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: week one or something just uh just to round off
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: what was a A pretty challenging week. But no, a
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: fair play tonight. You've got to enjoy those. I've just
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: done it to CK this week. Although I was fearing
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: an 0-2 start when I saw he had Josh Allen
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: put up a 40-point night on Thursday. But the wide
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: receiver trio of Jamar Chase, Arman Ra, St Brown and
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Devontae Smith. It was nice to get a good contribution
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: from them after our trade. It seems to be working
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: well for both of us, that trade, doesn't it?
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: It does, man. It was Devonta Smith for Patrick Mahomes,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: and I am so happy with Patrick Mahomes. I can
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: deal with losing Devonta because that has been such a
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: headache for me for so many years.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Peace of mind, is it? It's worth paying for the
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: peace of mind, isn't it? Even if Devonta Smith is
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: really good this year. It's why I bought in Jalen
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: Hurts and Joe Burrow, just for that peace of mind
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: of if one goes down, I'm not scratching around for
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: a Cooper. Well, I don't think anyone's had in Cooper
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: rush these days. God, that was awful. Wasn't it?
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: A drew lock or after, after last year's three sport
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: championship match going in, who did I have? It was
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: a Gino Smith. I think I had in the final
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: against Welsh because my homes went down, didn't he? At
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: the start of our playoffs, I had to rely on
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: Gino Smith in the semis and finals. And that's not
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: a sweat. I want to go through again. Yeah. All right. Yeah.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't think I can make a Plumlee joke
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: because I'm sorry about your rat, but losing coordination and
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: being incredibly tough, he went out like his namesake.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: Certainly did. All right.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry about that and definitely sorry about your mom, man.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: It's been a rough couple of weeks.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: Well, hang on a second. What about the loss to Nate?
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: That's pretty traumatic as well.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Since it's Nate, yeah, let's put these things in order.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you've been thinking about nothing but basketball these
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, but that's what we're doing today.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: And yeah, basketball is almost upon us, Craig.
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: What are we?
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: We're about a month out.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: We're less than a month out. salary cap league draft
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: coming up on the 11th is it i think and
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: that's it.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Is yeah yeah it absolutely is.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Always very interesting i find just to really gauge where
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: the market is on a lot of these guys as
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: well from a from an auction point of view yeah
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: looking forward to that and a little quite looking forward
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: to it's his second year without any real pressure because
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: all my good players run out of contracts at the
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: same time and because my previous owner basically had mortgaged
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: future seven years worth of picks was like slowly climb
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: back to like trying to draft value and trade that
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: for picks.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: So Craig, we're going to talk about a few players
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: with the ADP this year as we're getting close to it.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: It's hard to figure out what the consensus is these days,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: but I pulled the NFBKC. That is the NFBC's basketball
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: equivalent ADPs. They've got, I don't know, they got 15
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: drafts in the book and presumably they're some people who
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: have something on the line. So they're thinking about this.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: And we're going to talk about guys we think are
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: better or worse than where they're being rated in this
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: thing right now or where they're being drafted. So we're
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: going to talk about three guys who we think are
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: values at their ADP, three guys who we think, what
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: are they doing with this ADP? I'll let you go first.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: We'll do the underrateds first, and then we'll take a
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: break and do the overrateds. So who's the first guy
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: you've got who you think is going too cheap in
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: this auction?
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Okay, so I think it's important to state that NFPKC
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: is a two-center league. So you will probably tend to
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: find that a lot of centers are pushed a little
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: bit higher than what that might traditionally be in a
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: lot of other rankings. But the first guy I've gone for,
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: and it's more about a switch of my mindset to
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: the way that the NBA has gone and how it's
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: affecting fantasy. is that I'm starting to want a lot
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: more iron men on my team, guys that I just
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: feel really confident are going to be there week in,
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: week out, playing nearly every game, are going to be
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: there for the playoffs. And no one epitomizes that more
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: than Mikael Bridges, who is 77th ranked on NFBKC ADP rankings. Now,
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: listen to this, Jesse. This is how many games he's
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: played every year he's been in the league. So first year, 82.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: Second year, 73. Then 72. And then listen to this. 82, 83, 83, 82.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: So the last one, two, three, four, five, last six seasons,
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: he's played every single game. Admittedly, the last game he
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: comes in and plays is 12 seconds for his bonus
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: before getting subbed out so most leagues are over by
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: that final game but he's the ultimate iron man and
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: he might not be sexy he's around 15 points a
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: game but he'll get you 1.3 steals nearly a block
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: a game be useful in assists and rebounds his percentages
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: are really good which I always find really attractive he's
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: nearly a 49% shooter and 83% from the line 37%
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: from three And when you can get that from a
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: guy that's eligible to be in your shooting guard spot,
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: I think that's ultra valuable. He's going 77th. He was
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: 27th on the player rater last year, if that's your jazz.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: And I think that just given his positional versatility, the
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: fact that he never, ever misses games. And, you know, so...
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: It isn't the sexiest statistical output, but it's extremely useful
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: and he's positive across the board, including those all-important stocks.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: I think he's a real value at 77th.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Craig, the numbers you just gave in terms of the
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: games played, it may even underrate when people hear that
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: he had a couple of years in the 70s. He
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: has played every game of his career. In fact, he's
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: played one more game than every game in his career.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Because when he was traded midseason.
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: Traded, yeah. From Phoenix to Brooklyn, he had, what was it,
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: 27 and 56 or so, wasn't it?
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: 83 games that season.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: 83 games.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: He led the league. But when he played 73, when
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: he played 72, he played all of Phoenix's games. It's
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: just that there were fewer because it was around COVID.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: So there were fewer games. That's why. So he's played
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: every game of his career, as far as I can tell,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: plus one. So, yeah, you talk about reliability and a
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: guy who's going to get in there and play big minutes.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: My temptation with him would be, oh, he's a Knick.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of worried. Are people going to be overly
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: high on the Knicks?
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: But you're right. Well, but I think that's part of
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: the other part of the attraction is that there's nothing,
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: no major changes to the Knicks, that it won't be
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: the status quo for Mikhail Bridges. And like I said,
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: he was 27th on the player rate last year. And
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: without any major changes, it's not like anyone's coming in,
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: taking those minutes away or taking usage away, or there's
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: going to be massively different rotations that he's going to
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: be involved in. I think it's going to be a
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: lot of the status quo. And you've got, from a
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: roto perspective, a top 30 player that's going to play
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: every single game ranked or say, okay, ADPs are going
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: to fluctuate from site to site. But in this case,
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: At 77, and I just think with the way that
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: the modern NBA is, so many upper tier players are
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: just sitting games constantly, healthy rests or slight niggling. injuries
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: because it's all about that maintaining for October for the
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: playoffs and keeping them healthy for the end of season
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: stuff like that and that's just not the case I'm
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: starting to value a bit more the guys like Nicole
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: Bridges because I just know their money in the bank
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: from start to finish and There isn't any more of
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: an Ironman in the league than him.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it. He did lose the usage last year.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: So you've kind of seen what he's going to look
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: settled into this role, which I think is pretty encouraging.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: And yeah, number 77 on the rankings. That seems like something.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Somebody took him as high as 56. which maybe that's
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit closer to where you would hope to
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: get him in terms of your team.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: I think as we get closer to draft season, we
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: have more sample sizes, a lot more rankings and stuff
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: out there. I think you will see him a lot
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: more in that late 40s, 50s range on traditional sites.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: I think that There does seem to be a centre
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: boost on an FBKC, which sort of pushes everyone down
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: a bit as well. But yeah, and again, the positional
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: flexibility he offers you, shooting guard, centre forward, small forward,
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: power forward eligible. And if you can slot a guy
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: in at your shooting guard that's going to give you
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: two stocks and shoot nearly 50% from the field, that's
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: huge statistical upticks on what you expect from that position.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I like it. I like it. Let's move to the
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: next guy. Like I said, I don't know how much
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: people get influenced by playoffs. Traditionally, I've not felt influenced
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: and I've not really felt like it's been as big
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: of a deal. But maybe just because I was really
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: locked into the playoffs last year, I feel like this
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: guy is unfairly maligned. And that's De'Aaron Foxx. who is
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: number 87 in the ADP. I think I've already talked
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: about him on one of the episodes this summer, but
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: I can't help it. He's right next to Dylan Harper
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: in the ADP down at 87. I feel like in
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the finals, De'Aaron Fox was just absolutely slammed.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and so was Dylan Harper as well. Had him
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: as an honorable mention. And what surprised me was Stephan
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Castle was 64 and Harper and Fox were 86 and 87.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: And I would have thought that Castle would have been
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: like down at 80.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: It does. We got to remember De'Aaron Fox, he hurt
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: a knee in the playoffs. He had great first two
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: rounds against what Minnesota in or Portland in Minnesota, he
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: did hurt a knee, Oklahoma city and in New York,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: didn't look as good. Everybody's got the memory of him
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: thinking that he might've done a Ben Simmons in some
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: of the plays he had late, but don't worry. You're
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: not drafting playoff deer and Fox. You're drafting regular season
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: deer and Fox. He had exactly one career playoff series
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: before last year. If you can believe that it was
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: that seven gamer Sacramento against the Warriors. Otherwise, he'd never
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: been to the playoffs before. So let's all settle down
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: about that. He was an all-star just last year, was
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: De'Aaron Fox. And we've already got him down to number 87.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: He still gets a ton of minutes. He's going to
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: put up the stats you need in the regular season,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: and that's what counts. Yeah, I think De'Aaron Fox, it's
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: criminal that he's going as low as 87 here. What
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: do you think?
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got three honourable mentions as well. And D'Aaron
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: Fox was one of those three honourable mentions. When you started,
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: because we don't know who each other have got, I
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: thought you were going to start talking about Dylan Harper
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: when you were talking about that, because he had a
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: fantastic playoff series as well. And he really seemed to
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: address a lot of concerns that the fantasy community, myself included, had,
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: including some of the the point scoring efficiency, ways of
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: getting to the basket, or the shooting more so than anything.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: So I thought that you were going to, because he
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: was down at 86. But yeah, I had Jaron Fox
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: as well at 87. The other thing, spares aren't going
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: to be, they haven't changed a whole lot. At some point,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: they might be making a decision on whether to move
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: on from Fox if he's too expensive. And when the
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: Stephen Castle new contracts, etc. kicks in, But I don't
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: think it's going to be this season. And you feel
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: there's going to continue to be a market for Fox
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: moving forward in some locations. So even from a dynasty standpoint,
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: he isn't massively old. He's a veteran at this point,
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: but he isn't massively old. Even if he does move on,
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: you don't really see it affecting his value a huge ton.
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: If anything, it could move up in certain situations.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: It's one thing to say that they could move on
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: from him in all... they can't because, by the way,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: De'Aaron Fox, he's being paid way more than anybody else
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: on the team right now. He's going to be paid
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: more than Wemba Nyama when Wemba Nyama gets this extension.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: He's owed $ 6 million in 29-30. You can't just move that.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: You can't bench that.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: You can't, but at the same point, everything's moved up.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Mid-level exceptions are up. And the amount of the mid-level
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: exception now, 10 years ago, we were thinking was a
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: sort of top quality, an elite sort of style player
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: sort of salary. And there's one thing that we're learning
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: is there's ways to do it. And because the average player,
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: because their salary is a lot more expensive, the salary
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: matching fundamentally is still there because fundamentally players everybody's salaries
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: have gone up regardless of what level player you are.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: And I understand what you're saying. You're not necessarily going
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: to get the return that you might have once done
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: for a guy like D'Aaron Fox, but there will still
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: be a way of moving Fox if and when they
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: need to or want to.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Fair enough.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: Go on. Who's your, let's see, we're on you, right? No.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Who's your next?
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Okay. One hundred four. Anthony Black, 22 years old,
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: Orlando combo guard is the best way to describe him.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: And I thought 134 and the names that I saw
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: around him, I thought was quite a value. He was
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: playing almost 30 minutes last year. Jalen Suggs for two
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: seasons now has been plagued by quite a lot of injuries,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: spent a lot of time off the court. Even if
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: and when Suggs is healthy, Suggs and Bain is healthy,
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: He'll still slide into that sort of super six-man combo
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: guard role, soaking up a lot of minutes that Suggs
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: and Bain are off the court. And even last year,
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: he still put up 15 points a game, nearly four
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: assists and rebounds, 1.4 steals, and the shooting isn't horrific
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: at 45% either. You've got to think that at 22
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: years old, there's a potential growth jump there. Might come
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: to the point where Orlando move on from Suggs. Black
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: certainly looks like a future NBA starter for the long term.
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: Very athletic, lots of ways that he can hurt you.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: Great mobility as a defender. Still has a lot of
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: naive mistakes in terms of some of the defensive decision making.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: but he's certainly more than athletic enough and enough hustle
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: there to really make the defense play. And he looks
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: like the sort of perfect Jalen Suggs kind of replacement
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: at a real value cost. Like I said, an ADP
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: of 134 was just way, way too low, even if
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: you only just got the returns that you got last year.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: That's fair enough. Yeah, we don't know what's going to
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: go on. Things are changing down in Orlando right now.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: All right, I'm going to go next, and I think
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: I've talked about him before this summer, but again, I'm
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: just high on the guy. Kobe White of the Charlotte Hornets.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: He is down at 83 in the ADP, and he
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: is going to be filling the gap left by a
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: lamello ball. He's going to have Brandon Miller, Nas Reed,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Conn Knipple to dish off to this year. Note that
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: he's never been a killer at assists, whether that is
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: your perception or not. His career average is 3.9, so.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: That's not really been his role throughout his career. But
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: then you have to look, who is going to get
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: the assists on this team? He's still only 26 years old.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: And you might answer the question, who's going to get
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: the assist by saying Dennis Schroeder? Because Dennis Schroeder showed up,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: as Dennis Schroeder often does, the guy who has literally
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: played for 10 NBA teams since the year 2020. And
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: one of them twice, the LA Lakers. In a typical year, though,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: you got to remember, Schroeder usually plays better for the
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: second team he's on than the first team. So he's
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: going to probably hit the under in Charlotte and then
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: go somewhere else and be better. Kobe White, I feel like,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: is more anonymous than you would think. For whatever reason,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: I feel like Chicago is almost the most obscure NBA team.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know why, but they're always kind of trapped
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: in the middle. They're not glorious enough that you want
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: to rubberneck and just watch them be disgusting like some
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: of the the ultra tanking teams but they're just in
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the middle and they've got fantasy producers i don't know
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: what's going on there but so kobe white has been
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: there for his whole career until he was traded there
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: mid season last year to charlotte and the numbers did
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: take a bit in sharp take a dip when he
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: came over to charlotte but keeping in mind he was
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: behind lamello and The Hornets were on a run. So
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: you don't mess with that. Kobe White got his minutes.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: He had his impact, but that was about it. And also,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: it was the first time in a few years he'd
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: come off the bench. Again, obviously, because you got your knipple,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: you got your Lomelo. You're not necessarily going to shoehorn
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: him into the lineup just because you traded for him.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: I just think 83 is too low. I think this
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: guy is going to be one of the better guards
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: in the league.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: I shouldn't. Top 30 guard, anyway.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think one of the biggest things that you
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: didn't point out was Lamello Bull and Miles Bridges are
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: not there anymore. So there's a real chance for this,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: for Kobe White to, at least in the short term,
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: make this, let's be honest, it's Con Knipples' team, really,
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: isn't it? But Kobe White's going to be the vet,
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: the sort of starting vet there. And as a real
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: chance to really take the team on his back as
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: such and like you said at 83 it just seems
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: like a real value so yeah I don't disagree with
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: that at all quite intrigued with the Hornets this year
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: actually because they had that massive winning run everybody praising
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: lots of plaudits on them and how fun they are
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: to watch the results It wasn't just the eye test
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: of fun. The results were matching it. And they've, I think,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: quite wisely, but they've decided to say, we're going to
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: refresh a bit here and go again. And I don't
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: think that's necessarily a bad idea. There seems to be
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: better decision makers in-house now. Yeah, let's see where this
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: takes them.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: The ultimate, you could do a fantasy podcast and just
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: come on and say, buy low, sell high, and hang up.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: And that would be a good message. That would be
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: probably more useful information than happens on half of my episodes.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: But the Hornets leadership did it. LaMelo Ball had his
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: career year and has had so many problems. And they
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: had the guts to say- We're not going to be
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: a winning team. We're not going to be at the
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: levels we need to be with LaMelo here. Let's cash
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: him in. Let's get Nas Reid. Let's do this thing
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: now and try to really step it up. You're right.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: The decision-making and, frankly, the ownership not swinging in and saying,
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: you've got to keep LaMelo Ball. He's our favorite.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: You think back to 12 months ago, and a lot
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: of the talk was– There's zero market for LaMelo Bull
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: or Jar Marant and they're probably going to have to
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: take such a huge hit on value that it's probably
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: not worth trading them in the first place. And you
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: fast forward 12 months, Jar Marant's gone for next to
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: nothing and LaMelo Bull's gone for an absolute haul. So... Yeah,
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: I do think there's something better in the decision-making. I
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: really like Hannes Steinbeck that they drafted. I think he
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: could be a Kevin Love-esque style player for them. Like
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: most rookies, it will take time and what have you,
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: but I think he's a really fantastic ad. They've they
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: seem to be drafting better. It isn't just the trades,
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: the decision makers on free agency. It just seemed to
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: be better run now. And hopefully that goes into the
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: coaching as well. And yeah, let's see where it takes them.
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I agree. I think Kobe right there is,
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: is probably too low.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: All right, Craig, who do you got for your next guy?
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: Talking of, I did just mention him, but at 111,
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: you've got miles bridges. Who's moved from Charlotte to the
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: Phoenix suns. Um, I've always loved Miles Bridges as a
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: basketball player. Obviously, there's been some question marks over some
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: of his previous personal antics and stuff, but I'm not
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: here to judge that. I'm no judge or jury. I'm
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: here to try and win fantasy basketball matchups, which is
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: way more important than that court stuff. But yeah, at 111,
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: I just felt it was really far too low. He's
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: got the change of scenery, which I think will do
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: him good. I think just getting out of a place
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: with some poor memories, starting again. And not that he
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: had a bad year last year. Again, this is a
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: guy you can get 111 on NFBKC. 17.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists,
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: a couple of threes. The percentages are good. He's 82%
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: three-throw shooter. And they were all down a bit of
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: a tick as well from his previous three years. So
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: I feel like you're buying him a bit of a
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: dip because if he could just go back to what
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: he had done the previous three years, you'd probably saved
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: yourself 40, 50 places in ADP in terms of his production.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: And at 111, that's a bet that I'm willing to
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: take because there's another guy that kind of contributes a
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: bit everywhere for you. He's got that small forward, power
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: forward eligibility. And that Suns team is going to be
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: sneaky fun this year, I think, as well.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: Craig is going with the all-bridges discussion today. You've got
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: more bridges than London over there, Craig.
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, a fantasy-friendly game for sure out of Miles Bridges
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: and a team that's not going to be afraid to
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: try to compete.
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: You look at the names going around him and you
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: just think that, Even if he'd produced last, I know
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: it's a really unsexy pick. And I know that there's
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: people that might not pick him just because of the
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: personal stuff and stuff like that. But just on pure production,
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: 111 is way too low. This is a guy that
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: should be going late 60s, 70s, in my opinion. I
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: feel like because he got three less points a game
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: last year, a couple of less rebounds, all of that
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: sort of thing. I think that it's not unfeasible for
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: him to, especially getting away from a guy like Lamello
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: Ball and Konkanipo, where his points could go up three,
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: could get three more points a game, could get those
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: extra rebounds. Because it's not like the Suns have got
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: dominant rebounders there really is it or they've got Jalen
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: Green I suppose but you're not relying on massive consistent
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: offensive explosions from Dylan Brooks and stuff so I think
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: there's plenty there for him in Phoenix to get I
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: know Dylan what's his name Devin Booker is still there
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: and stuff but I think there's more for Miles Bridges'
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: game I think there's more than enough for him to
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: flourish to go around yeah what.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: What rank was he, Miles Bridges? I'm just looking at.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: These rankings now. 111.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: 111. So, yeah, that means there are only two Phoenix
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Suns higher than him in the ADP, and one of
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: them is out for the year, Mark Williams. So only
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Devin Booker actually is in the top 100. I don't
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: believe that. I think that it makes sense that given
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: that gap, Miles Bridges is going to find his way up.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: I think that's a good pick. I am going to
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: go with a Craig Bozich special for this last one, Craig.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: You're going to appreciate this. Can you guess who I'm
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: going to say?
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: Jalen Green.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: No, no Jalen Green, man. Jalen Green's in my bad book.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: DeMar DeRozan, Craig. DeMar DeRozan is at 135 on the ADP.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: He has been, the last four years, according to Basketball
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: Monster Ranks, 28, 31, 70, 76. Okay, there are some
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: reasons that you can doubt DeMar DeRozan. One of them
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: is he's quite old at this point.
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he's 36. Let him go.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's on a gentle decline, shall we say. But
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: he could be rejuvenated by playing on his first decent
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: team in a while. Denver actually can use him. They
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: need a guy in their second unit to do some shooting.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: They haven't had that in a while. DeMar DeRozan, of course,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: has been fighting the battle against math for his 18-year
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: career because he likes the mid-rangers. That's what DeMar DeRozan
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: is good at. He's good at the mid-rangers, not the threes,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: which makes him archaic but useful.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: But the one thing that he does do with that
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: mid-range game is your percentages at high volume go through
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: the roof. And that's always been the underrated aspect of
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: DeMar DeRozan is you get elite free throw percentage, elite
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: field goal percentage for his position. You don't get the threes,
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: but you do get compensated elsewhere. He has always been
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: sneakily undervalued because he's just massively unfashionable. It's not like
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: Sacramento waived him on ability. They waived him because they
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: were over the tax threshold and the way his contract was,
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: he was an easy stretch and wave that wasn't a
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: big deal. cap hit if that makes sense now they
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: would have loved to do the same with Zach Levine
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: but the cap hit would have been monstrous.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they've got to do something different there. But just
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: to emphasize the point you're making about free throws, we
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: look at so many people in the NBA and we're like, yeah,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: they got an 87% free throw percentage. They're going to
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: be great. Oh, but they take under two a game.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: DeMar DeRozan, he averaged 5.6 free throw attempts on an 86.8
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: free throw percentage last year. That was actually down. Typically
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: in his career, he has averaged over 7%. through most
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: of the 2020s on many teams that he was on.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: And again, just he hasn't been on a playoff team
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: since what, Toronto? Was Toronto even a playoff team when
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: he was there? Last he was there was 2017-18. I
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: don't know, man. Aside from the play-in years in Chicago,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: DeMar DeRozan, you know what he's going to do. He's
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: going to show up. He's going to get some points
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: for you. He's going to have great percentages. He's not
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: really going to get you the rebounds and those types
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: of things. He's definitely not going to get you the threes.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: But he is definitely going to get you more than
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: the 135th best fantasy game out there.
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: Just the points and efficiency alone will see him much
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: higher than that. It's just the fact that he doesn't
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: do anything in the sexy cats, really, is it? That
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: makes him a massive value, really, at that point.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I wonder if some of this, like his
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: low draft position was 184. I wonder if there were
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: some of these drafts that happened before he signed, and
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: some people were like, I don't know, maybe he's out
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: of the league. But with Denver, he is actually going
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: to have, oh, he's going to be buried on a
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: good depth chart. No, he's going to have a role there. Now,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: the one thing I would say is with DeMar, only
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: in Dynasty, if you think you can win this year
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: and really acquire him cheaply, because he is at the
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: end of the road right now.
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you're not building a team around DeMar DeRozan, but
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: he's a very nice addition if you've got a very
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: competitive roster and you can acquire him for a value, really.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: And I remember, like, actually acquiring him because I traded him,
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: I did a trade with Sorio in three sport, where
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: I traded in Kemba Walker for DeMar DeRozan in a
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: second round baseball pick. And I had an owner say
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: that was a poor trade because Kemba was the second
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: round pick and Demar DeRozan was the seventh round pick
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: or something that season. And I was saying, that's the case.
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: But my team needed free throw percentage in a bad way.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: And Demar DeRozan was high volume free throw percentage for
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: my team. My team had everything else. And you know
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: what I always felt about Kemba Walker's longevity anyway. So
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: I felt it was a good time to trade him.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: And I ended up winning the basketball league that year
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: on free throw percentage, I think, from Thomas and meeting
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: Thomas in the final. And he's still on my roster,
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know, what is it, eight years, seven years
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: on or something from that trade. So yeah, a soft
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: spot for Altamira.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, totally. I think that was a good one. And
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: it shows in the That was it for my three, Craig.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: Before we take a break and go on to the
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: second half, do you have your honorable mentions? Do you
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: want to drop more of those?
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: So I had Fox as an honorable mention. I had
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: Carmen Malawach, 156. Mark Williams is out. He's only really,
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: he's only busted in sort of Iguodoro for center minutes.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: Now they might play around with Bridges at the five
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: and small lineups, this and that. He looked fantastic in
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: summer league. He had a good college career. He was
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: a lottery pick. And I think this could be the
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: Malawatch year. And at 156, that's, you're going into, I
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: can afford to drop in territory there if it doesn't
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: work out. So I think that's a gamble that if
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: you're in redraft leagues, that's the guy you want to
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: be looking at towards the end of your bench career.
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: see what happens from the start of the season because
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: he looked fantastic in summer league he really did and
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: the talent was always there let's not forget he was
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: always talented and Cedric Coward at 108 just seems too
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: low on that rebuilding Memphis team we don't have the
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: jar problem anymore we know Coward is talented I know
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: that a few vets have come in there and stuff
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: but he looks a real baller and again you're getting
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: guys like that outside the top 100 that still have
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: This is an upside play that is guaranteed minutes, guaranteed
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: production that could be even better. And as we'll find
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: out in my avoids anyway, some of those guys are
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: going at ridiculous prices when you can get a guy
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: like Cedric Coward at $ 108 or certainly on NFBKC anyway. So, yeah, Fox,
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: Mallow Arch and Coward were my honorable mentions there. Nice, nice.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: All right, let's take a break, come back and give
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: the bad news. Back with Craig Boswich. You've said all
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: the happy things. Now we're going to be pessimistic and
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: talk about some of the guys who we think may
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: be just a little bit overrated. Craig, who you got
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: first on this list?
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Okay. This isn't, again, none of these three guys, all
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: honorable mentions actually, are necessarily guys that I think are
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: just going to be, that I don't like and are
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: awful players or anything like that. And if most people
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: are listening to this will either own them or they don't.
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying... go and sell them unless you can
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: get this kind of value for them because I think
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: they're bad that it is just contextual to what the
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: ADP is so the first guy I've got is Walker
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: Kessler at 23 I maybe a lot of Lakers play
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: on NFK BC who knows but when you can get
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: when Jalen Brunson's going at 24 Bam Adebayo at 25
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: and He's going ahead of those guys. He only played
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: five games last year. Year before, he only played 58.
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: Year before that, 64. And yeah, the stats are fine
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: when he's playing, but it's an awfully high price, 23,
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: to be paying for someone that's... You're pretty much paying
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: for 2.4 blocks a game and good rebounds. But you
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: can get that much, much cheaper. Yeah, he has a
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: very high field goal percentage, but it's a bit nullified
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: by not having that many shots. And yes, I get
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: the theory he's playing with Luka. It's going to be
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: a lob threat. There could be the potential for a
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: bit of an offensive explosion in games because of that
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: lob threat. But I ain't playing 23 for Walker Kessler
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: when I can get Brunson at 24 or Bam at 25.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: Does that make sense? Especially since he played five games
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: last year as well.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: Let me tell you why that makes sense, because that
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: was my freaking first pick, too. This is the hazard
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: of not sharing the names with Craig before.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: It's more fun for us when we don't share as well,
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: because we don't know who the other guy is going to.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: But what was your rationale on that? Was it pretty
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: much everything I said, or did you have anything to
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: add on that?
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're all insane because this guy has missed a
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: ton of games. I get the shutdown last year. But
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: when you talk about his free throw percentage too, sure,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: he had a 70% free throw percentage last year in
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: five games. If you look at his career free throw
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: percentages– It's way down in the– it's below 63. That
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: is going to– that is not going to help your team,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: especially if he goes to the line, which he probably
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: will from that position. So, yeah, and he's not young.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: We think, oh, he's only been here for a couple
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: of years, and now he's going to get his first–
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: he's 25. He's one year younger than Kobe White.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: I mean– I mean, in terms of loss, that's still
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: pretty damn young.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: But for a big, that's not young, man.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: For a big, that's– Yeah, I mean– This is, we've
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: talked about it, I think, to death before as well.
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: And we've always been a bit dubious in Dynasty about
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: over-investing in those block specialist guys because that athleticism is
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: in a hurry, isn't it? We've seen it before with
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: your Andre Drummonds and stuff like that, where they're riding
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: the high of the high. They're an elite fantasy player.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: And then suddenly they get moved from a situation and
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: they end up being the backup to somebody else in
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia or something. We see guys go from studs to
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: nothing very quickly when it comes to this type of play.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: And I'm not saying that's going to happen to Walker
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: Kessler this year. And I do get the theory. I
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: do get that he's probably a good running partner for
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: Luka Doncic as a genuine lob threat, all of that.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: But it's just an awful high price to pay at
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: 23 to get your 2.4 blocks of games. Do you
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? I feel like I'd rather take
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: that chance on someone ranked much lower to get that
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: kind of statistical production. It might not be quite as
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: good as Walker Kessler's, but I'm certainly not going to
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: be missing out on a guy like Brunson or Bam
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: for the privilege.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely. No, I'm totally with you on this one.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: uh yeah walker kessler this is madness and by the
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: way craig you and i know the famous rationality and
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: even-handedness of laker fans and one always wonders how many
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: of them are dipping into these early drafts he is
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: the third ranked laker at number 23 we just said
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: we only got two.
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: Austin reeves was at 21 wasn't it i saw that
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: putting him on here just again i think reeves is
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: a fantastic player he has very good statistical production He
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: really does. And it was, again, it was just a
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: value of who else I could have got in that range,
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: if that makes sense. But Walker Kessler was much more
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: of a standout than Austin Reeves. And where was Luka going?
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: Not that I'm saying that Luka shouldn't be where he is,
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: but what was his, what's his ADP?
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: Luka's at four. Luka's at four here. I don't have
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: actually a problem with Reeves and Luka being up in
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: this range. I'm just like, OK, seriously, in the first
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: two rounds, we're going to have three Lakers. Just stop
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: and think about that a little bit in terms of
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: the stats here.
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: Who's their number four guy?
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, that's true. It's going to be a bit
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: of a dip until we get to their fourth guy.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: But yeah, no, I totally agree. I think we're in
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: lockstep on this one with Walker Kessler. So actually, I'll
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: let you go to your next one.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: I bet we might have the same guy again because
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: a lot of what I just said applies to this guy.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: Donovan Klingon. at 34 i don't hate klingon i think
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: he's fine for what he is i don't hate his
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: situation anything like that but at 34 man and I
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: get there's probably a bit of untapped upside there, but
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: he did play in his 20s. He played 27 minutes
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: a game last year. So it's not like we're expecting
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: him to go from 14 to 30 or anything like that.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: So it's going to be a big statistical uptick. But 1.7
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: blocks a game, 12.1 points and 11.6 rebounds. It's a
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: double-double guy with... Good blocks. Let's not say elite-elite, because 1.7
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: is very good. But it's not going to be... If
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: I'm paying that kind of price for a guy that
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: isn't going to do much else, I want elite. But
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: let's not also forget that Robert Williams has gone there.
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: Micah Potter's gone there. They've still got... What's his name?
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: Yang Hansen? Do you remember? Yeah. So... It's not like
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: there isn't other options. And this is probably going to
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: be a fun, good Portland team to watch. And I'm
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: not saying he isn't going to start and get starters
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: minutes and stuff. But what I'm saying is last year,
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: we got starters minutes, 27 minutes a game. It was 12.1 points, 11.6 rebounds. 11.6
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: rebounds is great, but you can get rebounds pretty much
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: anywhere cheaply. And 1.67 blocks is nice. am I paying
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: the 34th pick to get that kind of production, especially
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: with potentially the threat of Time Lord over your shoulder?
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, never trust the Time Lord. He could come back
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: from the past when they were still healthy and beat you.
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying if you've got Klingon to trade him
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: and get rid of him because he's not going to
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: be any good. I'm not saying that at all. I
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: think his production will be absolutely fine. But just in
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: the context of 34th overall and what I can get
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: at that pick, It isn't me, Jesse. Do you know
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: what I'm saying? There's not enough upside to warrant picking there.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: I don't see a big boost in his numbers this year.
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: And I reckon people are probably paying for a premium
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: of another jump, if that makes sense, in terms of
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: his production because he's a young guy. He's not even
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: that young. You know what I'm saying? Yeah.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: This is one where the advice you gave back at
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: the beginning of the episode about centers getting a premium
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: here makes some sense and then the other piece the
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: other fantasy bon ma that i think people might be
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: going with is the supposed third year breakout 11.6 rebounds
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: last year and this is his third year but i'm
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: with you i think that this is way too aggressive
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: for the young man he's going ahead of evan mobley
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: and demontis sabonis.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: It's not it's my point.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and Jaron Jackson Jr. Those guys are in the 30s,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: but below Donovan Klingin. I don't know, man. That's not
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: where I'm.
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: Going to be. And even take a guy like Sabonis,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: you're not going to get the blocks that you're going
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: to get. But you're going to get the same rebounds.
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: You're going to get a better effective field goal percentage
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: because you're going to have higher volume from Sabonis, much
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: higher volume, much more assists, much more points. Do you
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: know what I'm saying? It's like, you're pretty much putting
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: such a premium on the value of blocks and rebounds
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: on donovan klingon because he doesn't even get enough points
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: really for the field goal percentage to to have that
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: much of a spike.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah yeah all right craig my second guy i'm gonna
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: go to jalen johnson And the reason I'm going to
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: Jalen Johnson, I love Jalen Johnson, but Jalen Johnson's number
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: nine right now. He's ahead of Cooper Flagg, ahead of Ant,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: ahead of Cat and Giannis and Donovan Mitchell and Durant.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: He's ahead of some really good guys. Keep in mind,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: he has basically played half the games that he's been
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: eligible for in a five-year career now. So I don't
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: trust that. He popped off last year, 22-10-8 is amazing, okay?
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: But it's just the reliability. It's the burden they're going
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: to want to put on him. They did bring in
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: some guys at his position, Aaron Wiggins and Lou Dort.
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: He's the star of the team, yes. But they took
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: some guys who are going to come in and probably
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: take a little bit of the burden off him. Good
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: for the Real Hawks, but not necessarily something that's going
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: to allow his stats to pop even more. I just
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: think we're a little out over our skis on Jalen
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Johnson at this point, especially If Atlanta is not going well,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: I can maybe see them getting a little bit off
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: the throttle. Don't get yourself way down in the bottom,
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: but I don't know, man. Jalen Johnson is just too
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: rich for me. I would never let him get out
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: of the second round, but I can't see him taking
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: him at number nine. Can you?
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: Our first disagreement, I think nine is just about right
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: for me, for Jalen Johnson. Obviously, it's not ideal that
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: he does miss games from time to time with injury
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: and stuff, but From a talent standpoint, it feels right.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: And I think it as much comes down to how
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: risk-averse are you. With your drafting, back to the McColl
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: Bridges thing, you're not going to get that Iron Man
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: from a Jalen Johnson. You're drafting the talent, really, aren't you?
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: So if you're going to be taking the chances on it,
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: if you're one of those guys that thinks Halliburton's at
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: a value or you're probably going to think Jalen Johnson's
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: at a... You're probably... so I think it's just as
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: much about how risk averse you are drafted in those
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: first couple of rounds and I think generally speaking I'll
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: say most people are a little bit more conservative on
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: those first couple of rounds and then would like to
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: take the chances a bit later but yeah I didn't
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: have a problem with nine to be honest with you
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: it didn't highlight to me not in the same way
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: that this isn't my next guy but one of my
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: honorable mentions was Tyrese Maxey at seven now Maxi is
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: a brilliant player, fantastic player. I love watching him play.
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: Really good real-life player, really good fantasy player. But you've
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: got to think with Jalen Brown, LeBron James, the usage
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: rate of all the guys that have gone in. I'm
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: not saying Maxi's not going to get his and he
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: isn't really valuable. Of course he is. But it's going
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: to be very hard for him to reproduce what he
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: did last year with the guys that are coming in
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: just from a usage standpoint as much as anything. And
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: I still think the team's going to run through Maxi,
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: but Jalen Brown is a high usage guy. LeBron probably
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: isn't going to rely on as much usage, but when
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: Joel Embiid plays, he's a high usage guy. It's... You
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: got Vijay Edgecombe there as well, which I'd love to
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: see Vijay come off the bench as like a utility
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: sort of six-man role. And I think Vijay will be
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: fine this year. I hear a lot of people saying
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: he's the guy that's going to miss out. I disagree.
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: I think he can thrive this year in that kind
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: of role with his style of play. But we'll see.
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: But Maxi at seven in the same way Jalen Johnson
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: at nine. Sometimes the avoids can be high picks as
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: much as anything else. And again, it's not a reflection
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: on Max as a player. It's a reflection of the
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: situation in Philadelphia. But I don't see that with Johnson.
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: I think Jalen Johnson is going to be absolutely fine.
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: All right. Now, was that your official second guy? Was
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: that an honorable mention you squeezed in?
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: Honorable mention I squeezed in. I only went with that
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: because you picked a high guy. So my third guy
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: is the guy who I think I said was my
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: breakout player last year when we did a similar podcast
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: a year ago. So he's gone from breakout last year,
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: must draft to this year, avoid at cost. Again, love
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: the player. It's nothing to do with him as a
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: player or what, and he won't be a good fan
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: if he pays up. is again at the cost. And
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: that's at number 42, Matas Mazzellis. Last year, great numbers, 63.3 points, 2.1 assists, 5.8 rebounds, 2.23s
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: with some useful blocks. But again, at 42, that's quite
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: a premium pick. And incoming this year, you've got Norm Powell,
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: Caleb Wilson, Nick Claxton, even Daylon Swain, you can argue.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: But again, There's a lot of positive guys that have
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: come in that I think are going to be taken
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: away from Bozellis. Norm Powell is no mug, as we know.
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: Probably one of the most underrated players of the last
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: four years, I would probably say, something like that, in basketball.
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: Caleb Wilson, if Summer League's anything to go off, could
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: be an absolute monster. And Nick Claxton isn't the sexiest guy,
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: but he's going to be in their getting boards, taken
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: away rebounds from everybody. So again, I don't hate the player.
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: I just hate the value at 42, especially when I
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: can consider a similar position. I can get very similar
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: production from Myles Bridges at 111 as I'm getting from
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: Bozelis at 42. And the only difference is pretty much
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: age and sexiness. And I'd probably argue that Their situations
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: are not that much different in terms of their potential
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: usage and quality of talent on their team. What do
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: you think, Jesse? Am I being too harsh on the
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: kid or?
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's shown it yet to that degree. Yeah,
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: there's going to be opportunities.
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: But not to that degree. And he's still going to
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: have opportunities. It's not like you're going to see his
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: minutes decline or anything like that. But I just think
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: with the talent that's been brought in with Norm Powell,
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: Caleb Wilson, and Nick Claxton, It's going to take so
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: much away from what he was able to do last
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: year that I think at 42, you're paying a premium
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: for growth that you think will happen rather than the
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: expected odds of it happening, if that makes sense. Not bad.
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: And when you put that into context of getting a
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: McCall Bridges at 77 or a Miles Bridges at 111,
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: 42 just seems way, way too high because... Again, like
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: I said, I don't think the statistical output between Miles
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: Bridges and Matos Buzelis is going to be all that
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: different at all, really. I could even see a world
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: where Bridges is actually better. But you're getting Bridges 70
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: spots lower.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: Which I think you have to do. Look, in Dynasty,
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: there's maybe an argument that Buzelis, you're catching a rising
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: start here. But yeah, I think it's not the direction
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: that I would go with a pick that high.
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: We're talking about... But also, NFBKC isn't dynasty. So when
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: people are drafting him that high on a redraft roto scale,
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: I do get... You probably would rather have Bezelis over
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: Myles Bridges in dynasty, but he's not a value anymore,
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: even if you trade for him, I don't think. A
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: year ago, when we talked about it, he was a value. Now...
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: You've missed that boat.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: Do you think he would be top 35 for you
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: in dynasty?
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: No, I don't think so. Top 60 possibly. I just
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: think that is, and I think some of that is
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: to do with, I think as time's gone on, I
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: think I, I value good veteran output more than I
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: probably used to from guys in their 28, 29 years.
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: 30 seasons. I think sports science is a lot better
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: these days. I think that we've had such an influx
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: of talent into the league that you even look at
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: this year's draft and there's, you can make a case
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: of 12, 13 guys that you might potentially in a
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: dynasty startup draft, at least on a par with Bozellis.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: But again, that's very subjective and So yeah, just from
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: the influx, how I value Vets compared to how I
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: used to, I'd probably be more top 60 for me
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: than top 35. But again, dynasty valuations are so subjective.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: Like you were talking, Marcus, the other week about how
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: you approach things. Even you and I approach things differently.
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: In three sport, our draft strategies were different. Mine, I
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: didn't value football at all because I felt it was
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: the easiest to rebuild. So I just fully went in basket.
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: It's all subjective at the end of the day.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it absolutely is. My last guy here, Craig, I'm
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: going Joel Embiid. And I know that I actually talked
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: him up as a positive last year, just because he
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: missed so much time. But how do you take Joel
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: Embiid at number 48 in this format? It's the health, right?
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: The health. I see in a high stakes league, you
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: take a swing. I see that He's a center, so
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: he gets a little bit of a boost there. People
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: might be remembering that Celtics series where he showed up
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: and he was awesome. But the big block numbers are
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: a thing of the past. He's down from that 10-plus
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: rebound level to under eight rebounds a game in actually
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: a few more minutes than his all-star years when he
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: has been healthy the last couple of years. And he
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: is also on that Philadelphia team where there's a ton
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: of guys that who are going to be taking a
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: lot of the usage. And yes, Joel Embiid, he's the
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: established guy. He and Max, you're the established stars. So
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: they're going to eat. And you can even point out
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: that Joel Embiid's backup, Aden Bona, might be out for
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: the start of the season. Frankly, I think that's an
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: argument against Embiid because if you dare play him anymore,
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: then you absolutely have to. He is going to shatter. Remember,
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: Embiid's never played a full healthy season. In his whole career,
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: he never has.
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: But it's difficult, I agree with you, in a startup
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: dynasty or startup draft, it's such a difficult investment to make.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: But if you have him, for how good he can be,
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: it's difficult to trade him because you won't get the
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: value that he can potentially put up. But in this situation,
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: would you, for example... Would you rather have your guaranteed
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: McCall Bridges, lower production, Iron Man over you, the complete
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: lottery of how many games is Joel Embiid going to play?
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: Barely made when we play head to head. You're going
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: to want the reliability every time, aren't you?
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I'm trying to think about because you've played NFBKC
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: in I haven't, I don't think. But I know in NFBC,
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: there's kind of this theory of people will take big
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: swings because they think they have to win an overall championship.
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: And I guess from that perspective, you might say Joel
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: Embiid could.
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: Be a game changer. So my seasons, like with, I
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: can only speak for myself and other people that, who
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: play NFBKC, and a lot of them are the genuine
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: high-stakes players that put in thousands of dollars for a buy-in.
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: And what won leagues was less volatility and boring value picks.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: It was your DeMar DeRozans, your Tobias Harris's. I'm talking
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: a few years ago now, so I'm not necessarily saying
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: do that this year. It wasn't the big swing guys, NFBKC.
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: And where the swings occurred tended to be at the end.
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: The people who took big swings early, gambling on health
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: and stuff, it just didn't seem to work in NFBKC.
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: And I'm sure there's cases and examples where it has worked,
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: but it was always the trusted and the most effective
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: formula amongst the most successful players I knew was the boring, steady,
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: reliable production of guys that were going to play close
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: to 82 games, be healthy, be productive and sneakily go
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: under the radar in those more unsexy cats like your
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: free throw percentage, your field goal percentage and stuff. And,
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: you know, you never felt, you could never win your
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: NFBKC like league's by who you drafted in your first
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: three rounds, but you could certainly lose it. One, without
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: a benchmark game plan, or two, just being way too
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: aggressive in terms of, I know Kawhi can put up
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: top five value, so I'm going to take a swing
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: at him at nine, and then him play 27 games.
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: Do you know what I mean? It's just a different concept, really.
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: A different mindset, I think, and you do have... Unlike
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: head-to-head where you can zig when others zag and all
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: of that, you do really have to go in with
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: your benchmarks. I need this many threes. I need this
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: many rebounds. I need this many points. And then try
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: and gain the value where the sneaky undervalued cats came.
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: Does that make sense? And Joel Embiid, I think, is
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: one of those that will, like you said, will be
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: attractive to guys that are willing to take swings. But
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: I think... Knowing the guys that I know that invest
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: thousands in buy-ins on their NFBKC, they're not going to
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: be taking a swing on Joel Embiid. It's not their
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: style of play.
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. I think there are some who come in
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: and they're like, I'm going to take a big swing.
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: You're right that the big winners don't. I know in
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: NFBC they don't. The guys who win NFBC are drafting
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: boring teams because I've talked to them before. Yeah, that's
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: how you actually win.
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: It's similar with basketball. It isn't about having the sexiest team.
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: It's about how well you execute your benchmark game plan
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: and what your benchmark game plan is, if that makes sense.
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: And finding those anomalies from the projections to what you
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: think might happen. So, for example, you might say Matos
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: Bouzelis is going at 42%. He put out 1.2 blocks
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: last year, which is really good for his positional value
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: for the position he plays. But I actually see that
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: being this year with Caleb Wilson and Nick Claxton being around.
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: I think that might be more like 0.6. It's doing
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: things like that, if that makes sense, to find those anomalies.
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: But yeah, boring, old, trusty and understanding benchmarks is what
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: the game plan always was. My highest finishes will always
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: go with that method.
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, very good. Okay, do you have any honorable mentions
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: you want to put in.
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: The overrated column? I had Tyrese Maxey at seven, which
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: we went into again. Love Maxey. I just think with
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: the amount of usage to go around has to affect it.
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: If it doesn't, then good luck to you, but I
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: think it's too much of a gamble at seven to
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: not think that that might come into play. Ryan Rollins
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: at 71. Understand last year's production was amazing, but There's
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: a lot that's come in, a lot of talent that's
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: come into that position there now. And I think when
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: you can get Kobe Bryant cheaper, why are you investing
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: in Ryan Rollins at 71? He's still at Milwaukee, right?
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: Isn't he?
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, who?
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: Ryan Rollins.
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's still in Milwaukee.
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: You've got Tyler Hero, Braden Burries looks the real deal.
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: Who's the other guard they got from Miami? Is it?
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: Did they get Jaime Jaquez?
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: They got Jaquez, Kellen Ware, yeah.
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: Nikolaj Jovic as well, was it? Yep. Bearing in mind
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: they drafted a lottery pick on Burries who looks brilliant.
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: Tyler Hero coming in and then you're chucking your Jaime
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: Jaquez's and, you know, I think that's going to be
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: a big hit to Rollins. And 71, like you said,
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: when you get Kobe White at 84 or whatever, it
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: just seems too much working against him for the odds
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: of him being able to repeat that. It's too high.
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: And the last guy I had was, and again, permanent
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: fantasy stat monster. And this could work out brilliant for him.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: But I need to see him earn coaches' trust before
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: really believing it. And that's Kal-El Ware at 55. And
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: that's ultra boom or bust. Because that could be a
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: brilliant pick. Because he's such a permanent monster from a
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: fantasy standpoint. But... I don't want to be the guy
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: that potentially takes the bust at that kind of price
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: at 55. But I understand people who will take the swing.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: It just won't be me. So yeah, that was my guys, Jesse.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, very good. The season is coming soon. Honestly, I
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: play almost exclusively Dynasty. In fact, I think I do
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: play exclusively Keeper Dynasty in basketball. I don't have a
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: big draft day coming except for our auction, which really
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: is to fill in around the players that we already have.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm looking forward to that, man.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: There's just the same for me. It's just the, the
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: auction for Red Rock and then our filler draft for
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: three sport. And that's me done. That's they're my only
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: two leagues these days. Like I've said a few times,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: I've trimmed everything right down and yeah. Enjoying fantasy just
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: as much to be honest with you with, with a
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: lot less stress. Nice. Nice.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: Craig, thanks for coming on. I'm looking forward to auctioning
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: with you. I'm looking forward to the basketball season in
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: about a month.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Apologies for the poor audio quality. We had some
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: issues with my headphones, microphone and stuff. So we had
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: to really go back to basics. Apologies to anyone that's
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: listening where the audio qualities are very good, but you
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: know me, Jesse, it's still been a pleasure and not
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: a chore.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: Nice.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: All right. Talk to you later, Craig. Thanks for listening.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: Just remember, you can always catch me online. You can't
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: always catch me online, but theoretically you could. DY in
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: Sports Life on X or Jesse Sevier on Blue Sky.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: You could rate, review, subscribe this show on any podcast
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: platform that you enjoy. And I hope that you do.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: Thanks to the boys that end this week for hosting
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: and posting. And until next time, good luck in all
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: your Dynasty fantasy leagues.