Latest / Beyond the Summit with Amir Golshani / Iran’s Regime Thinks It’s Winning | Meir Javedanfar
Transcript
- Amir Golshani: Welcome back. Today on Beyond the Summit, I'm honored to welcome Dr. Meir Javdanfar. He's an Iranian Israeli lecturer, author, and commentator who teaches Iranian politics and security at Weichmann University and has written extensively on Iran, Israel, the Islamic Republic, and the challenging balance of power across the Middle East. What makes his voice especially valuable is that he brings more than analysis. He brings history, personal memory, regional literacy, and a rare ability to separate the Iranian people from the ideology and behavior of the regime that rules them. Dr. Javdanfar, it's a real pleasure to have you here. Dr Meir Javedanfar: very much for having me. Amir Golshani: Fantastic. You were born in Iran. You later built your life in Israel. And now you spend your career studying the regime that shaped so much of that history. What first pushed you from personal experience into serious analysis? Dr Meir Javedanfar: think it was childhood experience. Iran, was almost seven when the revolution happened. Eight years old when ⁓ war with Iraq happened, much like everybody else in our generation. We brought up next to the transistor radio, our parents listening to shortwave radio stations, BBC Persian, Radio Israel Persian, Voice of America Persian. And also my father had a pharmacy in Tehran in the neighborhood of Qisha. ⁓ the evenings, used to be many former, ⁓ retired officers of the army who used to come and speak to my father. And used to about politics and I just found it all fascinating. It ⁓ was really for me, the world of politics, but the war had a tremendous impact on me. the Iran-Iraq war in terms of wanting to know more about politics. And I enjoyed it. I really enjoyed it. Yeah, was a, you we had somebody who are next to our shop, couple of shops down. Our house was on top of the pharmacy and he was a member of the Islamic committee, committee in the Islamic and he to have a ⁓ He used to have a shop where they sell kebabs, you know, fried. that they sell meat and stuff. And course I couldn't buy meat from him because he was in Kosher, but we always bought ⁓ from him. And I used to like listening to him. And I found it fascinating. Amir Golshani: I love it. Thank you for sharing that. So a lot of analysts who study Iran from a distance, you carry memory language and lived connections. How has that changed the question you ask and maybe the mistakes you avoid? Dr Meir Javedanfar: You know, remember once I got into an argument with my father and I threatened, I was about 12, I threatened to run away from the house and join the Basij to go and fight in the front. Yeah, I really did. I really did threaten him. You know, when you're a child and you see so much... patriotism around you and you feel so angry with the Iraqis for what they're doing and so angry with the war and how it is how it's important for you to be ready to fight for your country and I really believe that and this was something that I also used to do there was one aspect of the revolution one aspect of the Islamic Republic that I actually liked and was very attractive to me. And that was the concept of Khutkafai, self-sufficiency. We kept ⁓ marshalling it into us that we Iranians are just as good as the West, just as good as the Japanese. Why should we rely on foreign companies and foreign countries to produce these goods when we are just as talented and we should produce these products ourselves? and we should show the world that we can show, these products. And I remember I was very attractive to me and I used to think, and I used to really believe that we should do this. And there was some aspects of the revolution that I could really relate to. And I think that kind of, me some analyze ⁓ the revolution in terms of what is happening. the dynamics of power. dynamics of power within the regime are very representative of dynamics of power in Iranian society. Of course the Iranian regime is a terrible regime but the struggle the lack of trust that has always existed unfortunately or the low level of trust Iran because of the because of the dictatorships that have always ruled the people and there's never been an independent judiciary. So people are usually focused on their own family or maybe their immediate circles or maybe their neighborhood. This has been one of the challenges of this. Dr. Homa Katuziani talks about it, that Iran is a... which is basically it's a very short-term society. I see that reflection in the regime also. And ⁓ also helps me ⁓ what is happening. And I just find it very fascinating to me all these fights within the regime and who is doing what. All the different factions in Iran, they fight for power. what instruments of religion they use, instruments of power, it's always been very fascinating to me. But I have to tell you, it's become a little bit more difficult as the years have gone by. I used to believe in reform, the reformists, that the regime can be reformed. But I lost that in 2009 at the uprising. So that also makes it more difficult to analyze because the regime has just become one block. Amir Golshani: It is interesting and at the same time fascinating when you mentioned, you know, the self sufficiency about at least that time, when you look back, do you see that as a pure rhetoric or there was some action behind that? Dr Meir Javedanfar: I think there's legitimacy. There's absolutely legitimacy behind it. Actually, the regime made a propaganda movie about Khotkafai, about, it was, I don't know what to call it, propaganda. was to encourage people that why it's important and why it's important. And the child that acted in that as a Jewish kid that we know, starred in the Islamic Republic's, I don't want to say his name. He probably doesn't want, he can say it himself. But he's also a Swahili Jew like me from a Swahili family. I was born in Tehran, but all our family is Swahili. And I think that's very relevant. I always wanted to see Iranian Jews, to us, Israel is our mother, Iran is our father. We've always wanted to see both countries progress, developed, become important, become respected. Now always, you my mother's side of the family, they were involved in medicine in Iran. They used to import and produce medicine, medicine. always, you you talk to them, a lot of them have passed away. They still get a tear in their eye when they talk about Iran's capability to produce medicine, which was started during the Shah. And some of the Jewish people played a part in it. Amir Golshani: Right. Dr Meir Javedanfar: And I think that's, I would love to see that. And I think that's a very relevant demand, but the regime just like everything else destroyed it. Amir Golshani: That personal BRIDGE is exactly what I want to speak with you because you don't just describe Iran as a system. You read it almost from the inside out. When you strip away the headlines, what do you think is the single best way to understand the Islamic Republic today? As an ideological state, a security state, a mafia-style patronage system, or something else? Dr Meir Javedanfar: think the Islamic Republic of Iran must first and foremost be understood within as a revolutionary state. It's a state created after revolution with an ideological goal. Now, it's not suicidal in terms of wanting to fulfill the but as long as its fulfillment doesn't threaten its existence, it continues to ⁓ that ideology. revolutionary states are always either in the state of war be it's direct or be it proxy and when they're not at state of war they are preparing themselves for the next struggle in in their path to fulfill the revolutionary goals revolutionary states are always either in the state of war be it's direct or be it proxy and when they're not at state of war they are preparing themselves for the next struggle in in their path to fulfill the revolutionary goals you look at the soviet revolutionary state created after 1917 you look at all the revolutionary republics created in the middle east after 1952 in egypt with Nasser in the 60s with the Ba'athist in Syria, in 68 with the Ba'athist in Iraq. They're always in a revolutionary, in a warlike state, themselves for the next stage of achieving their goal. And I think another great relevant example is the People's Republic of China, the whole displacement strategy that they have. It's been extensively written about it, about how they want to replace the United States as the number one power in the world. And this is the same way to look at the Islamic Republic. First and foremost, it's a revolutionary state that is either in war and the people of Iran have paid the price more than anyone else. Either people of Iran for the last 47 years have either been in the middle of direct war or proxy war. revolution didn't even last a year without sanctions. Within November, 1979, Iran was already under sanctions because of the takeover of the US embassy. So first and foremost, it's a revolutionary ⁓ Secondly, a Shia, ⁓ Shia state. So Shia Islamic state, and that's the best way to look at it. The Shia Islamic ⁓ character gives its rhetoric, it gives color to its strategy and to its goals and gives justification, and this is very important, gives justification for the existence and the continuation of the revolution just as the Safavids when they turned Iran from a Sunni state to a Shiite state starting from 1502 used Shiism for that reason, the Islamic Republic is doing the same. Amir Golshani: love that. does the regime fear more at this point? Israeli military pressure, American pressure, internal fragmentation, or losing the loyalty of own coercive institutions? Dr Meir Javedanfar: You know, one of the things I love about, well, to be the news sites, but now it's on Instagram. You see that within Iran, they say there was a debate and Azadi was there pro-Iranian regime intellectual. And they told them, what are you talking about when you talk about the missiles? We have missiles. We can't feed ourselves. We can't the wages of our soldiers. This is how the Assad regime fell apart. It could no longer pay the money of its soldiers. And I think ultimately this is what really worries the Islamic Republic. But I have to say that there is a real disconnect between the Revolutionary Guard hierarchy and the government. There is a real disconnect. Whatever you think of Pezeshkian and I think he's been the weakest, most disappointing President in the line of weak and presidents weak because Khamenei never let any of Iran's presidents do their work He was come he was intervening all the time But think in position genuinely is concerned about what's happening to Iran's economy Look the price of goods are doubling most of these 150,000 members of the Revolutionary Guard and 300,000 members of the artist the army and a million Basijis They go to the same shops the rest of the Iranians go to. Okay, maybe they have some, ⁓ of course the senior leadership, senior officers, but many of them live among the people. The economy is the Achilles heels of the regime, but the revolutionary guard somehow did not learn from the mistake of the ⁓ war and is repeating the same mistakes. And if you want, we can delve into them. And which is why I think ultimately the regime is likely to come up. The economy is the Achilles heels the regime, but the revolutionary guard somehow did not learn from the mistake the ⁓ Iran-Iraq war and is repeating the same mistakes. worse from this war that it expects. Amir Golshani: Right, so you mentioned a great point. do you think the Islamic Republic still has a real social base or it is now surviving mainly through force, fear and institutional control? Dr Meir Javedanfar: I think many of the people within the regime are also complaining. But I think they're worried that if the regime falls, then they're going to lose their economic status. And there have been a lot of unqualified who have reached of ⁓ incredible wealth power because of their loyalty to this regime. And they know if the regime goes, ⁓ they're going lose their economic status. at the very least and they are willing to kill people they are willing to kill hundreds of thousands of Iranians and they are brainwashing members of the Basij by saying that the people who want to overthrow the Islamic Republic are not against the regime they are against Islam they are against Prophet Muhammad which is why the regime uses the term Fetne Fetne, Fetnegar are the people use fitna in arabica the people who rose against prophet muhammad and it's using islam to brainwash them to kill because these people in the regime within the regime know that if the regime falls they at the very least they're going to lose all their economic status and maybe their homes and maybe some of them will be put in jail or or worse Amir Golshani: Putting aside the senior officials who build up astronomical wealth through corruption, nepotism, and many other unconventional ways, so regular ⁓ Basijis ⁓ Revolutionary or ⁓ armed you mentioned a great point, you so they may afraid that they lose their economic status. So how about the time that there is no economy? Dr Meir Javedanfar: you think that is the point that the regime, that the government believes, because in Iran it's very important that in the Iranian constitution there is the government has most of the power a body, but the person who has the most power is the supreme leader. But the supreme leader has created several bodies in Iran, revolutionary institutions that ⁓ appointed by the supreme leader. So you have a dual system in Iran. of the government and revolutionary institutes. But one serves the other. It's the government that serves the revolutionary institutions. The government has been warning about Mr. think Mr. Pezeshkian said sometime last year, I think it was September, October that look, we don't have money for the rest of the year. We just don't have money. And he's become a comical figure because he keeps saying they don't let me work. He's right, actually, they don't let him work. The revolutionary institutions don't let the government work. And the revolution institutions right now, I think they are repeating the same mistake as the Iran-Iraq war, whereby they believe that the people are still willing to fight for the regime, that you can still take on America with the same zest that you took on America in the late and early ⁓ 80s. And ⁓ another that they making is they are internationalizing this war. This was a terrible mistake that Iran made, which ultimately forced Ayatollah Khomeini to drink that chalice of poison. He used that example to describe how hard it was to end the Iran-Iraq war. The regime is repeating the same mistakes and also it is ignoring the economy. And I think this is ultimately, as you quite rightly said, this is something that is going to become the Achilles' of the regime. which is why I think there could be another round of talks and this time we could see progress because the US blockade is going to really really undermine the regime. Amir Golshani: Right. One thing I find, sure, yeah absolutely. So one thing I find powerful in your work is your realism, you do not confuse anger with imminent change. What are the clearest signs that the regime is weak but still dangerous? Dr Meir Javedanfar: economically, sorry, economically. Well, I think the very fact that they killed 30,000 Iranians in two days is a perfect sign that they are weak. They feel vulnerable. know, don't think people realize there's never been a real survey carried out in Iran that shows what support Prince Reza Pahlavi has inside Iran. It's every Iranian's right to want him. to want him as a leader or to not want him as a leader. This is, this is, everybody has that right. On the 7th, on the night of the 7th of January, he called on the people of Iran to come out at 8pm. And people came out in the numbers. The regime didn't initially shoot at people. But it was around 10 or 11 o'clock at night, they realized that people are not stopping. The masses are coming. There are people coming across Iran. And the regime panicked. The regime panicked by the number of people who came onto the streets. and also how widespread it was across Iran, which is why it resorted to giving the order to shoot, kill. And the same happened on Thursday night on the 8th of January. This is a regime that realized this week and it's the best, the only way it can survive is to kill its own I think we are all looking for the sign of when is going to be the next revolution. And the next revolution. We'll begin the moment we see fractures within the regime, security apparatus, especially the Revolutionary Guard, members of the intelligence organizations. As far as we know, there isn't any, but again, we don't know. There's a lot of known unknowns. We really don't know what's happening inside the ranks. Amir Golshani: we are in moment where the ceasefire looks fragile. The first round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad did not collapse completely and a second round may be coming. What do you think each side is really trying to buy right now? Time leverage, face saving, or genuine off-ramp? Dr Meir Javedanfar: think President Trump is looking for a way to fulfill his objectives without having to fight, without resorting to military Not anymore. I think he wants to move from pressure to pressure. And I think this is what he's looking for. And the Iranians are looking for a way to maintain their strategic achievements from this war, their control over Hormuz and the nuclear program, the right to enrich on Iranian soil continuing suffer from the consequences of war and sanctions. So I think the Iranians are going to come with the number of Proposals and I think if we in the next few days we hear that mr. Vance is going to Pakistan then I think we could all it as a sign that we are on our way to an agreement. I don't think Vance is gonna go to to Pakistan Without something serious and I think the Iranians will want we want to maintain those strategic goals But sadist but getting America to a deal by showing some some limited compromises, some limited compromises. There's one point I'd like to add here and I think it's very important for your viewers. One of the reasons why these talks are taking place in Pakistan is because of the great relations between Mr. Ghalibaf and the Pakistani defense minister. Last year Mr. Alibaf visited Pakistan and the two are very close, the two have very good relations. Amir Golshani: Right. Dr Meir Javedanfar: And this is something that the Americans are to their advantage. Mr. said recently that he's in talks before they went Islamabad for the first time. He was in talks with somebody within the regime and there has been a regime change. Of course, there hasn't been regime change, but people are changing within the regime. But I think the removal of Larijani allowed the Americans to use the Pakistani channel to get to... the removal of Larijani allowed the Americans to the Pakistani channel to through to... to and he has excellent relations with the Pakistani minister which they are using to their full advantage to and he has excellent relations with the Pakistani minister which they are using to their full advantage and I think another sign of confidence is the fact that the Pakistanis are allowing Iran to park its aircraft on their territory. There is a close relations between Mr. Khalil Boff and the Pakistani defense minister and I think this is a ⁓ channel that the are going to use to the maximum. Amir Golshani: Right. So this is a great point that you mentioned now. Now that you mentioned Pakistan, so where do you put role of this defense agreement between Pakistan and Saudis and sending thousands of troops and even military assets to Saudi Arabia by Pakistan? If something happens between Saudis and it escalates further, do you think there would be active involvement on Pakistani's military to defend Saudis? Dr Meir Javedanfar: doubt that very much. don't think Pakistan has, there is a, should interview Mrs. Fatemeh Aman. She's the expert on Pakistan and Afghanistan also. She's been to both countries. there's a great affinity for Iranian culture, for Iranian language. I it very difficult that the Pakistanis would want to go into war on behalf of the Saudis. Amir Golshani: Right. So based on how this regime negotiates, what matters more in Tehran's decision making at a moment like this? Sanction, relief, survival, of course, that's their top priority. Enrichment, deterrence, or preserving dignity in front of its own elite and public? Dr Meir Javedanfar: I think all of them, but Amir what I think is very important for your viewers to note is that you and I know the great economic costs that Iran's war of choice against United States has, the cost to the people of Iran. This is a war of choice. America did not want this war. It was the Islamic Republic that started this war from November, 1979, when they took over the US embassy. they say they use that America overthrew in 1953 and they use that as it as they gripe against America. Please do me a favor. The Islamist Ayatollah Kashani was against Mosadeq Okay he was the it was a major ayatollah. In Iran there was no street called Mosadeq until like 2009. There was no commemoration of the overthrow of Mosadeq The the regime was against nationalism even Khomeini talked about that nationalism is against Islam. This is a war that the regime chose, declared against the United States as part of its revolutionary character. ⁓ the people of Iran have paid the price, but now the regime feels because the regime has always, has not, of course, has on almost all occasions has ignored many of the gripes of the people of Iran. The regime feels that it's winning this war. Amir, they feel that they are winning this war. The control over Hormuz, this the Khurramshahr moment when Iran liberated Khurramshahr in 1982. It's the same delirium when afterwards they believed that they want to overthrow Saddam Hussein. They wanted to go inside Iraq and overthrow Saddam Hussein. I see the same unrealistic euph- euphoria within the regime that there was after that they captured fahf, know the fahf islands in 1986 the fahf peninsula inside iraq and And the regime believes that it's in the driving seat Whereas before it had the proxies in the region It could control events in the middle east now with the straight of Hormuz. It is controlling and influencing events in the world for them this difference The scale is an incredible achievement and they believe they can continue with what they're doing within the Strait of Hormuz. Amir Golshani: And then there is a real question. Do they truly believe that they are winning or it's their narrative for their public opinion? Dr Meir Javedanfar: Based on their actions, I think the hierarchy, I think winning. I really think they're winning. They attacked UAE on so many occasions because this is another thing that the delirium, the ⁓ euphoria within the and they're so drunk on power. The UAE for many years allowed Iranian companies, regime companies to operate on its soil because they wanted to maintain back channel within the regime. They wanted to maintain economic relations so that the two countries can have a good relationship despite the differences they can manage their relationship. have shared interests. The UAE wanted to participate in the development of Iran regime in a regime. personalities and organizations use the UAE to break sanctions. set up front companies. They used it have crypto accounts the UAE to loan the money from the sale of And there were many people in Israel and the United States who could not understand this, why the UAE is doing this. And at one stage, if I'm not mistaken, even the UAE was put on the gray list of the FATF. the financial action task force, which is for money laundering. I'm not 100 % sure, but I think that was the case. But the UAE wanted to maintain this relationship with Iran because it wanted to manage its relations. Look at the way they've treated the UAE. Look at the hundreds of hundreds of missiles and drones that they fired at the UAE. They've lost that now. They have lost that now. I cannot begin to emphasize how the of the missiles and the drones in this war, their ability to fire at so many countries and the control over the Hormuz shows that there are people within this regime who are disconnected from reality, they are drunk on power, on military power and they have learned nothing from the Iran-Iraq war. ability to fire at so many countries and the control over the Hormuz shows that there are people within this regime who are disconnected from reality, they are drunk on power, on military power ⁓ and they have learned nothing from the Iran-Iraq war. Amir Golshani: Right. So what we are witnessing right now is definitely it's a gone boat diplomacy. How do you read this combination of diplomacy and force at the same time? Talks on one side, more assets moving into the region and the other. Does that create leverage or does it make miscalculation more likely? How do you read this combination of diplomacy and force at the same time? Dr Meir Javedanfar: think it creates leverage. You know, there are some people within the regime, know, in Persian we say that some people you can say to them, please sit down. And there are people you have to, you you say to them, sit the hell down. Okay, there are people in Iran and the Islamic Republic you can talk to genuinely and I don't like them. ⁓ People like Rohani. Okay, despite all the terrible things that he did or Rafsanjani, these people have done terrible things. You could speak to them. wanted to, Rouhani genuinely wanted to change the and the nature of the Islamic Republic. Genuinely, genuinely. And he was doing it until Rafsanjani went for that famous swim and he came out and immediately had a heart attack. And they when they checked the towel on his body, there was 10 times the normal levels of radiation radioactivity around this towel. There was no autopsy afterwards on his body. And as soon as Rafsanjani was put away by the regime, you see a change in tone from Rouhani. And this is something. And since then, there are people within the regime who believe These are the same people who did not want Raf Sanjani's school of thought, which he said, and I think this is one of the reasons that ultimately led to his killing. In 2013, there's a famous, I think it was 2013, 2014, a famous speech where he said, we have to learn from the example of Japan. Instead of building missiles and instead of doing this, we should develop the economy. And this created panic among the regime hardliners, many of whom. rely on their for their income from the missile and the defense industries. And these people have wanted to push people like Rouhani and others out of power. ⁓ are using this war as a great opportunity to push their narrative and to push their militaristic and ⁓ strategy. with them, you cannot say, please sit down. With them, it's only the language of force. only the language of force. I genuinely believe that it was a terrible decision to leave the JCPOA in 2018 by President Trump and I think it was terrible that Prime Minister Netanyahu encouraged President Trump to do this. At the same time we have to also be cognizant of the fact that Trump wanted to reach return to the nuclear deal. Rouhani was about to return to the nuclear deal with him and at the last moment you can listen to Rouhani says it was there was Khamenei, he doesn't say Khamenei of course he says some people they didn't allow him they were about to return to another nuclear deal before Rouhani left office 2021 and this war could have been averted Amir Golshani: All Right. Dr Meir Javedanfar: with these people so with these people it's only power it's only from the barrel of a gun and the best country who knows about that is israel unfortunately you know people say that the united states wanted to strengthen the iranian moderates with the jcpoa and it's true well this is something that israel tried in the in the ⁓ 20 years before 30 years before the united states israel sold weapons to iran during the iran iraq war for seven years Israel was selling weapons to Iran even eight years I think throughout the entire war to strengthen the moderates and what did Israel get at the end of it? The regime declared proxy war against the state of Israel because those who have the guns in Iran are those who have the power. Amir Golshani: Yes, you're right. So let's focus on what's going on, you know, ⁓ regarding the second possible round, because President Trump mentioned today that there would be second round in coming days. So what would real progress actually look like this time, considering the compromises and red lines that we know they exist right now? Dr Meir Javedanfar: I think this is something very important to inform your viewers. The people of Iran want nuclear program. The people of Iran have every right to have nuclear energy, every right. Iran is a classic example of why you need to have nuclear energy because of the drought and all these problems. But at the same time, if you ask the people of Iran, if there was a genuine referendum asking the people of Iran, would you give up the entire nuclear program? Today for better relations with America and the rest of the world. think overwhelming majority would say yes the regime has mismanaged this program so badly the people of Iran have lived that Picked biggest price for the regimes forever wars against the United States and Israel So what the people of Iran in my humble opinion want is an open economy? investment from other countries end of the nuclear program what the people of Iran in my humble opinion want is an open economy? investment from other countries of the nuclear program end of support for proxy groups, no more missiles that call for elimination of other countries, everything that the regime doesn't want. end of support for proxy groups, no more missiles that call for elimination of other countries, everything that the regime doesn't want. This is what the people of Iran want. And ultimately, they want this regime gone. They want this regime over. Amir Golshani: that's what people in Iran want. And we have agreement on that. But the problem is that even considering these negotiations, it gives this ⁓ regime a of guarantee for their survival, that they will in power ⁓ if there is agreement between US and Iran, Islamic regime. That's one thing. Another thing, right now, what do you think would be even considering these negotiations, it gives this ⁓ regime a kind of guarantee for their survival, that they will stay in power ⁓ if there is an between US and Islamic regime. Dr Meir Javedanfar: That's right. That's right. Amir Golshani: the compromises they will be willing to make in order to survive right now in the second round maybe. Dr Meir Javedanfar: I think the regime probably would say that they're willing to freeze and reach Iran for 10 years or something. think they could do that. it really depends. know, President Trump is such a mercurial person. It's difficult to know what he will expect, except it's very difficult to know what the regime, but I have to say something else, Amir. Imagine that all the sanctions are removed. Everybody can invest in Iran. I honestly don't see the Iranian economy improving by as much as we expect. Amir Golshani: Right. Dr Meir Javedanfar: because this regime is so deeply corrupt, so incredibly corrupt that it will be very difficult to see the effects reaching the people of Iran from the removal of sanctions. Yes, of course, the real stabilize. Of course, there will be maybe more, but the down effect, the regime is corrupt. think they will basically try to take most of the income and the benefits from better relations with foreign countries. But to be quite honest with you, I mean, that's another conversation. I really don't see the regime, even if all the sanctions are removed, allowing foreign companies to invest in Iran, because the Revolutionary Guard and the Boneyards, the foundations make their money through selling everything from tomato puree to laser eye surgery to the people of Iran. I don't think they'll want foreign investment in Iran, but that's another conversation. Amir Golshani: Right. Yeah, I, I, a hundred percent, I agree with you, you know, so people in Iran, as long as this regime is in power, they would be the main victim. Regardless of, know, what kind of agreement, this system is going to, get out of the negotiations. As long as they survive, people are not going to benefit from this. So let's widen the aperture because Iran is never just Iran. Regardless of, what kind of agreement, this system is going to, get out of the negotiations. As long as they survive, people are not going to benefit from this. It is Iran plus the region plus proxies plus great power signaling. So there is open talk from Israeli security figures that the mission is not complete unless something fundamental changes in Iran. Then you hear language like that. Do you think that mean regime collapse, regime behavior change, degradation of capability or something more limited? there is open talk from Israeli security figures that the mission is not complete unless something fundamental changes in Iran. Dr Meir Javedanfar: Correct. Israel wants regime change Israel wants the end of the vela at a faqih the rule of the jewish prudence system in iran period But israel can't do it on its own israel. This is something up to the people of iran but what israel did during the recent war was to facilitate the next protest whenever the people of iran decide by attacking Basiji bases and you know, to break the regime's image as the almighty and all powerful. But apart from that, this is not something that Israel can do and we can't call, no Israeli leader can call on the people of Iran to pour onto the streets because they face death. And this is something for the people of Iran to decide or for Iranian leader. inside Iran or abroad. don't think foreign countries or foreign leaders should tell the people of Iran to go into the streets now and protest when you know at the end of the day we know this is a regime that is going to shoot its own people but this is a regime that is deeply worried Amir. This is a regime that is deeply worried that its soldiers are not willing to shoot the people of Iran. This is why it's bringing Shia from Shia soldiers from Iraq and Afghanistan to do its job. Amir Golshani: And recently from Turkey as well. what the pro yeah from Turkey. Yeah, she forces, you know, it's recently unfolding in the past couple of days, you know, so they're coming from Turkey as well. But the problem is that, you know, ⁓ politicians mainly when they say it is in the hand of Iranian people, Iranian people want change. No doubt about it, but with bare hands. So that is what happened, you know, on January 8th and 9th, you know. Dr Meir Javedanfar: Really? I didn't hear about Amir Golshani: of thousands of people mowed down on the streets. So how they are supposed to protest peacefully like what they did and not to be cracked down like what happened again, because there are still Basijian checkpoints, are still revolutionary guards on the streets, they still have gun, but people with bare hand, how they can fight for their freedom. This is the real serious question. Dr Meir Javedanfar: The Islamic Republic is the worst thing to happen to Iran since the Mongol invasion in the 13th century. This is something that has ruined Iran, affected the lives of millions of Iranians, my life, life, Amir. There are people who have paid a far bigger price than I have. Thankfully, in my family was killed or executed, but my family fell apart. I was 14. You know, I come from a community that has 2,500 year roots in Iran. I can't go back to my country, but a terrorist like Ismail Haniya or the leader of Jihad Islami can go and visit Iran, but I can't. This is a terrible regime and there is no straight answer. I really don't know. What you're saying is right. The people of Iran, if they go to the protests, going to get killed but I don't know what the answer is to be honest with you to support them with whatever they want to support them whenever they can but at the end of the day they are the ones who have to decide it's extremely difficult but this Amir Golshani: And the sad thing is they just want a normal life, very basic things to live as a normal human being. That's it. let's talk about what's going in Lebanon and Israel. Lebanon and Israel are now in direct talks in Washington. While Hezbollah rejects the process and Israel insists that Hezbollah must be disarmed, what do you think is actually possible here in the near term? Dr Meir Javedanfar: of all, when we talk about Iran's proxy program, all Iranians basically want Iran to be a superpower. All Iranians, of course, is very natural. But people of Iran are against the regime's proxy strategy because it has brought nothing but isolation and wars and sanctions upon the people of Iran. Now, also the countries that have been the recipient of Iran's proxy strategy have also paid a big huge price. Name me one country in this region where the regime has a proxy and country's economy is prospering. Name me one country. Name me one country where this regime has a proxy and it's not severely corrupt and is not beholden to the militias of the regime. Everywhere the Khameini regime has had influence, it has ruined it. The same goes to Lebanon. The same goes to Lebanon. Amir, we were occupying Lebanon for 18 years and we were occupying it for too long. We should have left Lebanon before that. But we took that decision in ⁓ 2000, according to resolution 495 of the ⁓ Nations Security Council. People Israel disrespects United Nations resolutions. It's true, we have. But people don't say this, that we also have respected others, but we got nothing for it. We evacuated every inch of Lebanese territory according to the UN and confirmed by Kofi Annan in May 2000. What has Hezbollah done in Lebanon since Israel's evacuation? 26 years. Israel is not occupying Lebanon. me what has happened in Lebanon. One good thing that has happened in Lebanon. So occupation wasn't the problem. The problem is Hezbollah. And most Lebanese people, of them want their country, one country, one government, one army. They want Hezbollah to stop dragging Lebanon into useless forever wars, but they can't do it. Hezbollah has more power. So the best thing that is happening right now, Israel is reaching it, is talking with the Lebanese government, which is very good, but is fighting Hezbollah. Because Hezbollah, most Lebanese people, many of them want their country, one country, one government, army. They want Hezbollah to stop dragging Lebanon into useless forever wars, much like revolutionary god relatives in iran ideological only understands force you can't negotiate with them you can it's not just the anti-israel it's a very anti-semitic organization they believe that in this region jews ⁓ are not entitled a state jewish people not just zionists jews And these people, rate, you know, in the Arab nationalism, there's also lot of racism in every nationalistic movement of their extremes and their races. And the way they saw Jews was this minority, Jewish minority in the Arab world where we're always scared for our lives. And the best thing we could ever reach was to own a shop in these countries. That's the way they want to see their Jews. don't like to see, they can't deal with the fact that Jews can have a country run it, have strong armed forces, they can stand on own two feet and run an economy. They just don't want it. They don't want us in this region. It's not just about Likud, it's about our existence. And this is the problem with His Wala. And it's dragging the Lebanese people with it. Amir Golshani: Are you optimistic about the result of the current negotiations between Lebanon and Israel? Dr Meir Javedanfar: I want nothing but peace with Lebanon. They are incredible people. Do you have Lebanese friends, Amir? They are incredible people. They are incredible. know, they are, they have the Midas touch, you whatever they touch turns to gold. Just look at their incredible achievements around the world. They are amazing. You know, they say Jews are good business people. really, I think are, are superior. I. Amir Golshani: Yeah, nice people, course. And they are very successful as well, yes. Dr Meir Javedanfar: I'm also passionate about peace with Lebanon because in 1996 I wrote my master's thesis on Israel and Lebanon. And I called, I have it here, called in the conclusion for Israel to evacuate Lebanese territory and to return it to the Lebanese people. So because by occupying Lebanon, we were hostages to Iran and Syria and we were ⁓ ourselves with the people of Lebanon. Now I was just a student, but in May 2000 it happened, it really happened. and very angry with Hezbollah for not allowing this to You know can dispute Israeli policy, you can criticize, make mistakes, God my God, you need an 18-wheel trailer to carry some of our mistakes. also, of course, make mistakes, ⁓ but it doesn't what Hezbollah is doing. Hezbollah declared war on Israel after after Israel withdrew, we've had two wars with them. And I'm optimistic that we can reach hopefully an understanding with the people of Iran who no longer want to fight Israel. But with Hezbollah I'm not optimistic. I think the only ⁓ they understand is force and I think this will continue as long as Hezbollah doesn't give up. Amir Golshani: Let's be hopeful that Lebanese people and Lebanon as a country find peace that they really deserve. Now let's get back to what's going on This blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, is the current pressure campaign from the American side. Can Washington really maintain this level of military and economic posture enough to force strategic concessions? Dr Meir Javedanfar: I think what the Americans and the Iranians are looking at are the future price, the price of oil, the futures and what the price of oil is and how sustainable it is. I think the Iranian economy can't do this. Amir, you can't do this. The price of goods is already doubling in Iran. I don't know how people live. You know, housing inflation was 84 % before the war. Wherever you live in America, imagine every year that they rise your rent by at least 84. What would happen? What would happen here? Amir Golshani: The current estimation is it's going to be around 180 % soon. Dr Meir Javedanfar: That's correct. That's correct. regime can't do this. The regime is making repeating the mistake of the Iran-Iraq war by internationalizing this war. The war was against Iraq, but suddenly Iran was fighting the Kuwaitis, attacking Kuwaiti tankers. It was fighting the Americans. It was carrying out bombing campaign in Paris. It internationalized the war, which is at the end, why it lost. Even the Soviets got sick and tired of this regime. And suddenly, you it was no wonder that suddenly Iraq's missiles could reach Tehran. Do you know why? Do you know why suddenly since 87 Iraqi missiles could reach Tehran, whereas they could not before? Because the Soviets sent technicians to Iraq to help them modify those scuds so that they can reach Iran, because they could not get Khomeini to stop the war. Because Khomeini's attack against the- the tankers in the Persian Gulf and brought the Americans to Persian Gulf, which is the last thing that the Soviets wanted. And Khomeini would not listen to them. And by internationalizing this war, the regime is making the same mistake. And I think ultimately, the regime is going to come off looking much worse from this war than it expected, much worse. Amir Golshani: So absolutely, this situation is not sustainable, but the question remains, who's gonna give up first? this survival nature of this regime and their threshold of sacrificing, as as they survive, Dr Meir Javedanfar: I think the regime is going to, within six months, they're going to have a serious problem on their hand economically. Serious problem on their hand with the money printing policies, which basically brought the, this is one of the reasons why the German economy came to its knees, brought it to its knees and also the Soviet economy initially. Whenever there is a deficit, they just print money. Soviets tried to do away with money soon after the revolution. was one of their... and it ended up printing even more money because there's always a deficit. In Iran, you can't fill the deficit with investment. And I think this is something the corruption is going to bring the regime to a serious, seriously dark corners in terms of its management of the country. I think even if there is a deal, within a year, there could be another uprising in Iran. Amir Golshani: Another key player is China. China depends heavily on Gulf energy and has a stake in stability through this rate of HORMUZ In your view, how does Beijing think about this crisis as an energy problem, a leverage problem, or an opportunity to watch the US absorb the cost? China depends heavily on Gulf energy and has a stake in stability through this rate of HORMUZ Dr Meir Javedanfar: I think they want to divert focused resources. They like to see America spend all its anti-missile systems. But I think they're also worried about precisely the mistake that the regime has made by internationalizing this war. The Chinese do much more business with the Persian Gulf countries than with Iran. And the regime picking a fight with all of these Persian Gulf countries, these countries They're going to, you know, they do a lot of business with the Chinese. As we speak, Amir, the Amir of Abu Dhabi is right now in China. As we speak, signing deals, this is basically economic diplomacy. They are there to pressure the Chinese to stop the Iranian regime. And one of the reasons why the regime turned up in Pakistan was because of Chinese pressure. And I think soon that's another factor that's as another consequence of them internationalizing the war. we could see more pressure from the Chinese to stop for the Iranians to show serious Amir Golshani: Right. So, Meir when you look at the whole board now, from Iran to Israel to Hezbollah to Washington to the Gulf to China and Russia, what do you think the most likely end game is? Dr Meir Javedanfar: I think the end game is that there won't be a regime change. And I say this with a heavy heart. not going to happen. Not because of this war. Not now. It may come in six months or a year, but not now. I think ultimately the regime is going to have to make compromises, Amir. The regime is going to make compromises and it's going to try to keep it quiet, but it's going to come out. The regime is going to have to make serious compromises. Maybe it won't be what we in Israel expect, include, for example, the missile program or the support for the proxies. But the Americans are going to want some serious concessions from the Iranian regime over the control of Hormuz and over the nuclear program. And the regime is going to come off looking worse because of that. no country, they're not, Khomeini before the end of the war said, you can count the number of Iran's friends on one hand. I think you can count the number of countries who are happier, who are willing to live with Iran controlling the straight of Hormuz on one finger. Nobody wants this. They have taken over the straight of Hormuz. It's illegal. According to international law, there's no country that's going to willing to live with it, and the regime is going to have to give it up. It's not going to look nice for the regime, just as it had to give up the goal of overthrowing Saddam as one of the reasons for the continuation of the war from 82 to 86 against Iraq, it's going to have to accept that also now that it's not going to be able to maintain control over the Hormuz. Amir Golshani: And my final question, after all the wars, all the ideology, all the pressure, all this suffering, and all the years you have spent studying power and fear, what does freedom mean to you today? Dr Meir Javedanfar: Freedom means being able to have the right to say what I, to have the right freedom of speech, freedom of action, freedom of thought, freedom of political choice, but also having a strong legal framework to protect my rights as a citizen. And I always think about, you know, I think, you know, we all have that dream of a free Iran and how we could contribute to developing a free Iran and where I would love to be able to help. And I think this is something that Iran is missing and has missed for hundreds of years. We've never actually had it, is to have an independent judiciary for the people of Iran to feel that the rights are protected by independent judges will protect the rights according to a constitution and according to the law without the fear of being intimidated by politicians or by criminals or by corrupt people. And I think that would be a tremendous achievement for Iran. what Iran needs and what it means to me to be free is to have the freedom of a sovereign citizen afforded to it by the freedoms but also protected by an independent judiciary. And this is something if there was an independent judiciary during the Shah, he will not make those mistakes. And we would be in a different place today. And I think in the future Iran next to democracy, we will need to have an independent judiciary and we need to protect it religiously, religiously, because that would be the best way not only to ensure the freedom of Iranians, but for Iranians to start trusting each other. Because we've never had an independent judiciary who would protect us. And this is why many Iranians have always felt very insecure and have always on to their family identity or the tribal identity. I mean, that's in the South or or the ethnic identity or the neighborhood identity because going outside we find it difficult to deal with other people because you your rights could be transgressed and there's nobody nobody to to protect you and it's created a lack of trust and we see it abroad Iranians can't work with each other because we come from the society where we've always felt vulnerable because there's never been an independent judiciary I think that would be the true revolution democracy and the independent judiciary for Iran. Amir Golshani: Dr. Jovdonferd, this conversation was sharp, honest, and deeply valuable. Thank you. Dr Meir Javedanfar: Thank you,