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Did Ozempic Just Kill WeightWatchers? · The Curve

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Welcome to the Curve Weekly, the podcast that keeps you up to date with all of the money
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business in stock market too.
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Brought to you by the Curve's research team, it's the latest insights on what's happening
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in the stock market, companies, other money related news so that you can stay educated and
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ahead of the curve.
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You can thank us later for sounding smarter than those finance bros that you need to
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tonight, honey.
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Is that a maple bacon that I see you chomping on?
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Yes.
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Is it actually?
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Yeah.
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I've backed back to podcast records.
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I knew.
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I know.
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It was a feeling.
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But also, well, I was there.
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And this girl was like, love the podcast.
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I was like, oh, my God, is it a Kiwi or a UK?
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Yeah.
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Kiwi, I was like, I'm actually getting maple bacon because I have backed back to podcast
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records.
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It's just like fair enough.
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I am.
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So for anyone who hasn't even lived in London, this is really important.
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This is a really important PSA if you want the best pastry in the world.
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Would we say the world is the best I've ever had?
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Our daily bread is pretty good in New Zealand.
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OK, well, pop-ins in the UK is a bit of an institution and they've got this one pastry
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that is like, you know, as the name suggests, maple bacon.
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Maple bacon.
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Well, I have just been in Rome.
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Actually, we've had a long weekend here.
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Popped over to Rome.
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Never been to Rome.
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And honestly, being on the other side of the world, I've just got to let you know.
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That sounds so privileged.
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I'm like, oh, what a hard life it is for you over there.
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Like me, in New Zealand, is it like, is absolutely pissing down outside?
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I'm like, have fun over there.
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New Zealand?
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Beautiful, right?
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No, I know, I know, I know.
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Pop to the South Island, to the bay of art.
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Like there's just so many incredible spots, but, yes, went to Rome.
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Never been.
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And everyone was like, oh, you love it.
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I was like, OK, my expectations are pretty high.
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And I did love it.
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Absolutely loved it.
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Super romantic.
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Super romantic.
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Was it romantic?
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You were there with a whole family.
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But the whole city, like the whole city, it's like, I find European cities like Barcelona,
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Florence.
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You know, they're all just like so romantic.
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It's so old.
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There's so much history there.
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Anyway, I have a few stories, financially correlated stories.
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I'm so excited.
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So we went to the Colosseum, you have to go to the Colosseum if you're going to Rome.
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And can we have a history lesson while you give us these highlights, like Colosseum?
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Totally.
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Top line.
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Colosseum.
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When was it built?
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Tell me.
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Oh, God.
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I don't know that kind of stuff.
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I just do the financial side.
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Two thousand years ago, I do know that, two thousand years ago, two thousand years ago,
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this stuff.
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This is ancient Roman stuff.
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Like you're gladiators used to go there and fight and you know, it's super impressive,
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massive.
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Like, think that it was man-made.
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They didn't have, you know, cranes and everything back then.
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And it is, according to you, you talk to probably one of the most visited monuments in the
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world.
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Put the Colosseum idol tower.
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You know, like, it's up there.
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Anyway, I started.
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I was there.
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I was like, gosh, there's so many people here.
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And it's not even like high season.
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And I started thinking, okay, it's like, we need to, I don't know, 50 euros to get in.
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Like, there's a lot of kids of people.
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So I started, like, I was waiting in the queue with my calculator and like, doing it.
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And I said, okay, Googling number of visitors at Colosseum.
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And it gets seven to eight million people, you've just visited in the Colosseum.
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So they're buying tickets to the Colosseum.
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But there's people spending money all throughout Rome that have just come for the Colosseum.
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That makes sense.
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So there's all these other kind of merchandise and spending and hospitality and all of
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that.
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But on average, the Colosseum brings in $1.4 billion for Italy, which is,
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insane, like in the Colosseum alone brings in over 50 million euros just by itself,
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just in taking turns.
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And here what you're saying, we need to create a global monument.
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I was like, you're saying, you need to Colosseum.
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I was like, you need to build a Colosseum.
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Yeah, one tree hill's not really cutting it in.
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In 2000 years time, we'll have $1.4 billion being bought into the economy.
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I feel like the Sky Tower, which is the one of the biggest buildings in Auckland or
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slash the world, slash New Zealand, no idea if it's global, wasn't that a thing back
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in the day, because it was so tall.
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I mean, it's not exactly Colosseum level, but no.
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Like that was built in my lifetime.
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Like what's the kind of significance, you know, cool, they use cranes and
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I also feel like, you know, like they've got like this, it's like the buildings,
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like whatever, kind of high.
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But then they've got this like big pin up the top that's like really claiming that
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it's so much higher than it is, you know what I mean?
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Guys, half the buildings, if I can point a bit at the top, like that doesn't count.
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Yeah, yeah.
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You can only use the bottom half, but like there's this little point that keeps going around.
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Like kidding, we're actually 25 metres higher than you think.
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Then we reach the tree fountain.
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Now that's where you throw the coin in, you make a wedge,
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quite romantic, there's a few movies and stuff.
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There's an iguaia iconic.
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Yeah, there's one movie here, yeah, anyway.
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And people are throwing all these coins in, I was like, they collect the coins in the
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day, like, where are they doing it?
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What are they doing with that money? Are they investing it?
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Are they, you know, like all this going through my head?
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Then I started googling.
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The treevee fountain.
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So this is like a fountain in Rome makes $3,000 a day from people throwing money in it.
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Sorry, what is the significance here?
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Like, why are we throwing coins?
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You make a wish.
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You throw it over your left shoulder or with your right hand and you make a wish.
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There's all these rules that one coin is that you're returned to Rome.
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Two coins is your fallen love.
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Three coins.
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I was like, oh, genius.
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So like a hundred coins and you, you know, become a millionaire.
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A hundred coins and you're always going to come true for life, you know.
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It's quite a good marketing ploy.
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But anyway, that fountain alone makes nearly 1.5 million euros a year.
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You're not even having to staff that, you know, you're not having to restore it.
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You just, you have a fountain.
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People come and they throw money in it quite a bit.
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Do they clear out all of those coins?
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I feel like that's just a lot of coins in there.
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Yeah, every day they clear it out.
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And the money's actually three days.
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Every day.
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Every day.
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It's $3,000 a day.
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You'd have people stealing it otherwise.
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Yeah.
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Well, that's what I was thinking.
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I just assumed that there would be lots of, you know,
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people coming and fishing in the middle of the night.
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But apparently the money goes to helping the homeless in Rome
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and like other charities, which is cool.
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Oh, that's beautiful.
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I love that.
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Yeah.
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And then we went to the Vatican, which is a city in itself.
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I can see what you're doing, Heather.
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You're trying to get over to get like a tax return
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from your Italy trip.
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She's like, I talked about it on the podcast.
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No, but then we eat to the Vatican.
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And obviously the Pope died.
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We talked about it a few weeks ago.
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And so they're electing a new Pope at the moment.
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The church is incredible.
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Like there's just the stature of it.
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It's insane.
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Like it's huge.
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It's beautiful.
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And then I got thinking, I was like, what do all the Cardinals
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and all the people do all day?
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Well, you're talking to any of the people
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you're on holiday with?
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Well, you just googling the entire time.
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Just in my own brain.
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In my own brain.
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Anyway, once again, I've got to go make another business case.
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Could you just give me a second?
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I was just writing down stuff as I was like, I'm just so fascinating
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when you get thrown into like a culture
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that you're not normally.
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Yeah, yeah.
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And then I guess just, yeah, it's quite fascinating.
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But and then I saw this Instagram post popped up for me.
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And it says, the Vatican.
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Because I was like, what are these people do?
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What are these?
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What are these men do all day?
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You know, the priests and the Cardinals.
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Do they go to the gym?
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Are they like, you know, is there a gym in sight?
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Let this building's huge.
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And they live in the corridor.
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And I'm like, what are they doing?
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Are they going to the gym?
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Are they just eating lots of food?
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Are they watching Netflix?
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You know, are they doing normal stuff?
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Anyway, I got serves this Instagram post
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and it says the Vatican has more Bloomberg terminals
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per capita than any other country in the world.
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So they're just all sitting inside their trading.
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So a Bloomberg terminal is like a research,
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it's like a research platform where you can trade,
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you research stocks, you look at how the market's doing.
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And they're really expensive.
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They're like, when I last had one,
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it was like $50,000 US dollars a year.
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Like the subscription, like it's insane.
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And the most per capita are at the Vatican.
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I'm like, what are these?
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Yeah.
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So they're all just sitting inside trading.
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They're not watching.
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They're not watching.
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This is gonna be a joke.
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I don't believe this story.
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Are you being fully serious?
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I'm being fully serious.
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I'm like, they've got a lot of donations that they,
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you know, they've got a lot of church money.
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I assume they have a big...
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I mean, they've got to make that money work for them, you know?
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And also, yeah, what else are you doing?
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I mean, their job, they've got jobs,
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their priests and their card wasn't going to get that.
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But there's a lot of spare time.
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It's kind of like one big investing club.
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They're all living together, you know, researching markets.
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Wow.
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And two more things for my trip and all.
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Bloody hell.
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So I can get a real tax right off.
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Is I went to pay at a restaurant twice.
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And they wouldn't let me pay.
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Because you were a woman.
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First time?
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I was like, oh, just lost in translation.
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Just thought it was a language barrier.
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Yeah.
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And I was like, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
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And I was like, no, no, no, anyway,
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then someone else ended up paying.
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And then the second time, I was like,
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they were like, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
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and I kind of lost it.
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I was like, excuse me, picking the wrong,
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better with the wrong woman.
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Do you know who I am?
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Oh my god, what happened?
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Yeah.
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What did you say?
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I just forced, I said, no, I was like, I am paying.
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And kind of just walks to some like the one guy
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was talking to, he wouldn't do it.
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So I walked to someone else and I just kind of stood there
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and was like, I am paying.
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Oh my god.
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That's bizarre.
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What the actual hell?
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What kind of a place were you in?
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Was this just normal like everywhere?
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Yeah, well, the fact that it was two restaurants,
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I was kind of, maybe there's a bit more still
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of like a traditional mentality.
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Oh my god, how strange.
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Also, maybe I should have lent him to it.
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And they're like, oh, but last thing I learnt in Rome was,
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and actually, I'm going to throw this to you.
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So, do you know where the word celery comes from?
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Like, I'm not going to lie to you the first thing
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that came to my head is a big giant like vegetable.
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Celery, yeah.
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However, I realised that's way off those.
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Where does celery come from?
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Celery, celery, celery, celery, celery,
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I have a clue.
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I'm feeling a bit confused.
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Salt.
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Oh, that's the clue.
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The clue is salt.
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Yeah, the clue is salt, yeah.
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Salt was expensive, so people got paid for it.
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Well, kind of.
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Salt was back in the day.
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How you preserved.
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How they paid people, oh, yeah.
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Well, how you preserved food, you know,
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they didn't have fridges and fridges.
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So they put it all in salt.
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So salt became very valuable in terms of being able to preserve food.
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So they would exchange salt.
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And then the Italian word for salt is the larium.
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And that's your killer celery, yeah.
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Okay, I love that.
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That's the best thing you've come up with in a while.
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That's really good.
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In fact, maybe if you're going to need to put on the work card,
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a trip to every European town and do a rough going back,
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I will do that.
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I am happy.
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I am happy to do that for the time.
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I will sacrifice myself.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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For the community, I know you guys want more great content.
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And that's the only way I will do it.
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Derek, and maybe like, have you got another 20 minutes
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in you of late Italy chair?
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Or should we move on?
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I'll certainly understand my name.
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I mean, and Rome.
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When I was in Rome, I found out some pretty devastating news
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to be honest.
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Talked me through it.
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Where were you?
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What pasta were you eating?
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Was eating a ketchup pepe?
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Favorite pasta.
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Yeah.
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It was just cheese and pepper.
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And I found out that Warren Buffett is leaving
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Birkshai hathaway.
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He's stepping down.
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Indivineera.
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You'd think he was dying.
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It's kind of how it really hit me.
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Did it?
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Did it?
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Did it?
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No, it was just like, you know, you know something.
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You know something's got to come, and then it comes.
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And sorry.
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Sorry.
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Sorry.
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Sorry inappropriate.
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And you know, the rest of Italy, my trip was really good.
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Yeah, you know when something's, it has to happen.
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And he's more and more and more.
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Buffett is 94 years old.
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It's like there is just no way he could continue running a business forever.
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But we're all the investors in the world going to copy now.
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Exactly.
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Yeah.
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So he has been CEO for 60 years.
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What the actual hell?
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I know.
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It's crazy.
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What an actual icon.
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We need to do it like tribute.
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So Warren Buffett.
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But the person taking over is this guy called Greg Abel, who's?
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Is he Abel?
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God, all the gags are going round the bed.
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Oh, really?
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Have they?
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Is he Unable?
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Or is he Abel?
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So Greg Abel.
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Yeah.
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So who is he?
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How old is he?
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What's his background?
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So he has been in Berkshire Hathaway.
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He's been Warren Buffett's right-hand man for a very, very long time.
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Quickly, though, for people who don't know what Berkshire Hathaway is.
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It's one of the biggest investment companies in the world, right?
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Like they invest.
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Is it an investment company?
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Well, how do you even explain it?
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Yes.
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Yeah.
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So he uses that, I guess, company or that vehicle to buy stakes in other companies.
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So instead of him just doing it himself, he kind of does it through a company, if that makes sense.
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Is it like a fund manager?
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Yeah.
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I mean, when you invest in it, you're investing in, so when you buy shares in Berkshire Hathaway,
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you're getting access to all his underlying businesses.
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All the ones that he invests in.
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All the ones that he's, yeah, that the company invests in, which is essentially his decisions.
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It'd be like the curve buying lots of different businesses, and then you invest in the curve,
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and you get access to all the underlying profits of those businesses.
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Investing club?
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Yeah.
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It would be genius though, just as an aside, if we had that, I would totally invest.
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I mean, that's kind of what the investing club is, but if we could actually invest, how good would that be?
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Yeah.
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Went, went.
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Went, went.
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So sorry, okay, so he is the most like popular investor in the world.
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He's like the daddy of investing.
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Yeah.
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And he's come up with so many slogans and analogies and just he's been tried and true.
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And I think the thing is that he has lasted so long.
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Whereas, you know, you get these kind of younger people that have a really good maybe 10 years,
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and then they kind of blow up or they get too cocky or like, you know, they're just, I think the consistency of his investment style,
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and that has obviously translated into incredible returns over the long term, has just mean yet he has become an icon.
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Since he has been CEO, if you had bought shares in Berkshire Hathaway when he became CEO, so 60 years ago, sounds like a long time.
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It is a long time.
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But if you had put in a thousand dollars and gone, you know what?
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Kind of like this guy, I'm just going to put a thousand dollars in and almost and just forget about it.
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You would have $55 million.
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No.
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A thousand to what?
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$55 million.
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Because he has generated a 5.5 million percent return since he has been CEO.
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Oh, good lord.
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But I think the hardest thing is, is putting that, if you put that a thousand dollars in, the hardest thing would be keeping it in there.
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Because if you think what's happened over the last 60 years, what the world has been through, you know, there's been some big moves in the Berkshire Hathaway share price that, you know, you would have to stick it out.
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And I think this is a really good point to make, you know, everything that we're seeing at the moment.
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And we're investing for 60 years at such a blip.
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It's like absolutely nothing.
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You know what I mean?
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And so if you're taking your money out, you're going to miss out on so many incredible returns.
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I mean, I think you need to keep hammering that home to me because if I'm being honest, like when we had our workshop the other night,
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and I was talking about the fact that I'd made $450 in the last couple of weeks because of my investments, which, hello,
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I could go and do something fun with that $450.
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But if I left it in there for another 60 years, imagine what that would have, you know, but it's so hard.
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Imagine how much more fun you could have with $55 million.
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But this is why, which I removed the emotion, you know, like all of that, and we say, invest consistently, try and not look at your returns, all of that because it is, yeah.
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And honestly, this is, there would have been very few people who would have put money in in 1964.
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And if anyone has a grandma that has done this, or a grandpa, or anyone, please, we want them on the podcast.
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And that should have been someone that actually has been invested for a long time.
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Or someone that knows Warren Buffett, that'd be great.
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Oh my god, yes.
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I reckon there's power in the community. I reckon we can get, we can get a connection.
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All right, Sherlock Holmes, we are finding Warren Buffett's long lost cousin.
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And we will get in touch with them, we'll send them, I don't know, some wine and flowers and be like, we will do anything.
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Anyway, if you had invested $1,000, you would have made $55 million, which is an annual return of 20% per year.
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That is enormous.
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20% on average every year, which is double what the S&P 500 has done.
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Sorry, what's he investing? I thought he did stable boring companies.
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How on earth is he doing 20%?
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He does, but remember the share prices are a reflection of the client demand.
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So people are wanting to get invested in his company so that they get access to kind of his investment decision making.
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And he does, he invests in Apple, he invests in MX, he invests in Coca-Cola, he invests in a lot of energy companies actually.
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He doesn't actually invest in a lot of technology and he's said that it's because he kind of doesn't understand it, which...
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We love that.
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...the fact that he's made that much money.
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He loves insurance companies, thinks they're great.
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Well, I think the good takeaway there is that the biggest investor in the world chooses to not invest in a giant, enormous sector
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that has had incredible returns so he just doesn't understand it.
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Has that ever been a better example of like, don't just try and invest in what...
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Don't be a sheep, don't do what everyone's doing.
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Oh, love sketches.
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Actually, got a little connection to Warren Buffett.
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But anyway, they're actually the number three bookware manufacturer in the world behind Nike and Adidas,
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which I was surprised at.
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And they've just been bought by private equity, which means that's a kind of a company or a fund that buys public companies and takes them private.
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So, or they can invest in companies before they become public.
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So it just means they think they could do a better job.
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So they're like, you know what, we're going to buy all the shares.
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We're going to take it off the stock exchange by all the shares from public investors like you and me, and we're going to make it bigger and better.
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So that private equity company 3G has bought sketches for $10 billion.
19:23
The reason this has kind of got a connection to Warren Buffett is that he said last week that he missed out on an acquisition that he wanted to make.
19:34
And it was a $10 billion acquisition.
19:38
Yeah, and so everyone's like, oh, did they miss out on buying sketches?
19:43
And it would kind of fit into the realm of what Warren Buffett invests in.
19:46
And he's also done deals before with that private equity company.
19:49
So they're both alongside.
19:51
So anyway, there was kind of talk that like, oh, did he miss out on that?
19:56
I mean, he's got nearly $400 billion of cash sitting there to spend.
20:02
So $10 billion like a blip in the ocean, but that makes me want to invest in it too.
20:06
I want to copy him, but you can't know because it's been taken off stock exchange.
20:11
So it's been taken private.
20:13
But what happens in order to buy all the shares from the public, these private equity companies, they have to incentivize you, right?
20:21
Otherwise, you could just sell it today for the price that it is.
20:24
And so they have to incentivize you.
20:26
So they have offered these investors a 30% higher than what it's currently trading at.
20:33
So they're like, you know, what would you sell to me for 30% higher and a lot of people have?
20:38
Yeah.
20:39
That's how they kind of get these deals across the line.
20:42
But if a share price is fallen, say from $100 to like $30 and then a company comes in and offers you a 30% premium,
20:49
you're like, well, no, because it's important for a hundred.
20:52
Yeah.
20:53
So then you're like, oh, but is it going to go to $10?
20:56
And this is actually a really good deal.
20:58
You know, so you're kind of toying with that.
21:00
But how do they do it if they can't get all of them?
21:03
Like, do they have to keep bumping their price up?
21:05
Or like, what happens if heaps people don't want to sell?
21:07
There's eventually a trigger where you have to sell if they get a certain majority.
21:11
I mean, it's called kind of, I think it's called drag along rights or tag along rights, one of the two.
21:17
But they essentially, yes.
21:19
So that's not like if if you had one share and you were a holdout and you were like, no,
21:24
I'm going to wait till you give me 200%.
21:26
And then they just, you know what this reminds you of?
21:29
This is the most random example.
21:30
But you know, there's okay.
21:32
So this is very, very New Zealand and Auckland centric.
21:35
But there's this massive new shopping mall in an area near where I grew up.
21:43
And there's this tiny little shoe shop that refused to sell.
21:47
I know the one.
21:48
Yes.
21:49
And so you see these huge, I don't know if it sold now.
21:52
But it was like there for ages.
21:55
And they were just like, no, we've been here for 30 years.
21:57
We're not moving.
21:58
And it looked so funny.
21:59
There was just these huge shopping malls.
22:01
And then this tiny little shoe shop.
22:03
And that's kind of what it sounds like.
22:04
You know, how on earth would you get everyone to agree on a sale?
22:08
You wouldn't.
22:09
Sometimes you get fought.
22:10
Most people get forced at some point.
22:12
Yeah.
22:13
And that happens like in a lot of places, right?
22:16
Even like residential.
22:17
You know, if they're wanting to build a motorway.
22:19
The council, whatever, whoever's built in the motorway will buy those houses.
22:23
And then if there's one holdout.
22:24
Do you really want to be the one house that's now surrounded by a motorway?
22:28
You know, in that devalues your house, you may as well sell.
22:31
Like there's all these kind of yet.
22:33
But that's a really, it's a quite a good example actually.
22:36
Yeah.
22:37
You can join the crowd and be like, you know what?
22:39
It's kind of, it's an okay price.
22:42
Not what I actually wanted.
22:43
But I'm going to move on and buy something else.
22:46
But yeah.
22:47
So sketches no longer a public company.
22:49
We can't invest in it.
22:50
But yeah, that that is now being taken off the stock exchange.
22:54
It's a private company.
22:55
Another company that I really feel like we're really doing a flashback here.
22:59
You know, sketches.
23:00
But do you remember Weight Watchers?
23:02
Do you know what?
23:04
So I used to love their newsly bars.
23:07
You know, the ones that were like, there's like a tiny little bit of like fruit inside.
23:11
And it was baked and like rolled oats or something.
23:14
I used to love them.
23:15
I'd put them in the microwave and hate them up.
23:17
And they'd be like a little dessert.
23:19
It reminds me of like Genie Craig.
23:21
And like all those like where you would go and you'd weigh yourself.
23:25
And it would be mainly one older woman or, you know, probably woman our age actually.
23:32
And I mean, it's just the old school version of Osempic really, isn't it?
23:36
Well, this is what's our stuff.
23:38
I have to stop it.
23:39
Yeah.
23:40
Oh my gosh.
23:41
Is that Weight Watchers has gone bankrupt.
23:45
Because everyone is now taking Osempic if they want to lose weight.
23:50
So it's like this.
23:51
My God.
23:52
But also, I'm like just taking a step back.
23:55
Before even Osempic was around, like Weight Watchers, it's a terrible name.
24:01
Before, before Osempic and anything like that, we were going through, you know, this big trend
24:07
of health and wellness and not being skinny, but being healthy and, you know, being active
24:13
and eating well.
24:15
And like Weight Watchers, it's just so.
24:17
I mean, it was 90s though, wasn't it?
24:20
Yeah.
24:21
You can't exactly rebrand when you're Weight Watchers.
24:23
It would be like, I mean, it's a pretty iconic brand.
24:26
You know, like even though the name is so out of touch.
24:29
But I just think, yeah, I think that you're right.
24:32
I think there was this trend away from, it's cool to look like a coat hanger, energy.
24:37
And then we sort of have totally regressed.
24:40
Like I only discovered skinny talk the other day because I heard someone on a podcast complaining
24:45
about how stupid it is.
24:46
And then I went and looked at some of these videos that these young girls are putting up.
24:50
It is honestly horrific, like disgusting.
24:55
It's all these young women who are, who are like basically giving their like skinny gold tips
25:03
on how to look like.
25:05
And to the point where I saw one, it was this woman who, yeah, all you need to do is shame
25:09
yourself into wearing a crop top.
25:11
It's the motivation you need to realize how fat you are and need to lose weight.
25:14
Like honestly, really disturbing shit.
25:17
Oh, wow, I really thought that we had moved on from elevating what looked like eating disorders.
25:23
And oh, I just, I heard, I heard this woman speaking about it.
25:27
She was like, it's just such a distraction.
25:29
Like girls and women have so much more to offer the world than shrinking themselves to be smaller.
25:35
Like use your brains for things and your heart to like make a change in the world.
25:39
Don't focus on like five KJs of weight on your body.
25:42
Like it's just such.
25:44
Oh, it just makes me, I was like, it's even like with all the fitness, you know, the fitness influences
25:51
and everything that kind of took off and he runs at the gym and they're taking photos of the gym.
25:55
And like you said, well, I don't like that.
25:57
I think, you know, at least there's an element of fitness and strength.
26:03
And, you know, making your body stronger rather than, like you said, obviously extremes,
26:09
but rather than starving yourself and not eating and trying to shrink.
26:15
You know, it's like, I don't know.
26:17
It's just like we should be all trying to take up more space, not less space.
26:20
It's kind of the underlying thing here.
26:22
Anyway, weight watches is gone, but I was then taken over.
26:26
And so is the idea here that that space is just going to become a huge vertical
26:30
with lots of other drugs and companies that are trying to have cheaper options
26:33
and ones with less side effects is that the whole thing?
26:36
Yeah. And it's pretty much like the genie craigs, weight watches of the world are pretty much not existent.
26:42
Unless they can, I guess, pivot more to more of your healthy eating.
26:49
But yeah, I mean, we've seen, honestly, I think even just yesterday,
26:53
Novo Nordisk was up about 6% because it's had another clinical trial that's done well.
26:58
That means, you know, there's just, I think there's just going to be a lot more
27:03
proliferation proliferation proliferation proliferation proliferation of proliferation.
27:11
One L proliferation proliferation, so really fast.
27:15
But I just wanted to dig into what bankrupt actually means
27:19
because when I read this headline, I was like, oh my gosh, no, goodbye, weight watches, like, see you.
27:24
But it actually can still exist.
27:28
So when you see that companies are going bankrupt.
27:31
It does sound scary.
27:33
Yeah. Oh, it does sound scary.
27:34
And it means they've got too much debt.
27:36
Like they cannot pay the debt.
27:37
Like, weight watches was paying $100 million, just an interest on their debt.
27:44
$100 million a year, just to stand still.
27:47
So they're not even paying down the debt.
27:49
Oh my God. And when, like, if we, as like people, individuals or a business look at debt,
27:55
if you see anything above like 15%, you're like, absolutely not.
28:00
You can't even imagine.
28:02
It's like taking your credit card and you just have, you've spent the debt and you now have to pay the interest.
28:11
And your income can't afford to pay that interest.
28:14
And there's probably a few people that have been in that position or know what that feels like.
28:20
But this is kind of at a company level.
28:22
You know, the revenue coming in the door or the income is not enough to pay the expense or the interest payments.
28:29
And so they just go, look, you know what, we have to, we have to go bankrupt.
28:34
We have to write off that debt.
28:36
And we, and say we can't pay it essentially.
28:40
But what happens is any assets that they have get sold to pay back first to pay back their debt.
28:47
And so the, this is where the equity, if you're holding debt.
28:51
If you, if the debt holders and loans always get paid first before equity holders or, you know, shareholders.
28:57
Oh, yeah, that makes sense.
28:59
You know, it's kind of like in terms of who gets paid first out of what's the peaking or the leftover.
29:04
It's always the debt first and then the equity. So this is kind of why.
29:09
So that means no one's going to surely be getting anything.
29:12
If you've got a hundred million in debt, surely they don't have enough assets to pay that off and give shareholders anything.
29:17
Yeah, no, it's kind of the beginning of the end.
29:21
So sorry. In fact, does this then mean anyone that's invested in waitwatchers?
29:25
If they have shares, they just get nothing for them. Like is that what happens?
29:28
You just get really, really diluted, which means your share holding.
29:33
So say you owned one percent of the company.
29:36
It kind of gets, I don't want to get in too much of a double, it gets bit restructured.
29:39
And so your one percent of the company might now be like 0.001.
29:44
So what you own is the public shareholder owners.
29:48
Like let's say I own shares and waitwatchers.
29:51
I would just be writing it off as I'm not getting any money for those shares essentially.
29:54
Yeah, pretty much. Yeah, with that much debt and that much money that has to go to other people before you.
30:01
It's kind of, it's never a good headline. Don't get me wrong.
30:04
But it just doesn't mean there is world where things can get restructured.
30:08
And it might be, you know, there's a few shareholders that hold onto their shares.
30:13
And it might do absolutely nothing for 10 years.
30:16
And then hey, we might have a big resurgence where people are like, actually,
30:22
I don't know, comes out of the woodwork that was then picking all that is actually really bad for you.
30:26
And I want to go back to eating healthy and and fitness and all of that.
30:30
And waitwatchers becomes a thing again, you never know.
30:33
But yeah, it doesn't mean that it kind of disappears is what I'm saying.
30:37
There are ways where it can be kind of restructured and they still stay alive.
30:41
But it's like limping, you know, it's like, it's very, it's on its last legs.
30:46
I kind of honestly, I never ever thought I would say this.
30:49
But I almost feel like I would prefer waitwatchers than ozempick.
30:53
Because at least waitwatchers is you're like having to eat.
30:57
And like, the whole point, I mean, it's neither of them are great.
31:01
Obviously, it's definitely lesser of two evils.
31:04
But I would be on team waitwatchers, I think.
31:06
Someone was like, what is doing worse things?
31:10
Oh God, it's hard, isn't it?
31:11
Like, ozempick is good for some people for health reasons.
31:14
It's not purely used for people trying to be skinny.
31:17
With diabetes and all that.
31:19
Yeah.
31:20
I'd love to know the stats on men and women.
31:22
Like, are they any guys that are like, I need to be really skinny?
31:27
Or is it just all women?
31:30
The Curve Investing Club is the world's first digital investing club for women to build their wealth.
31:36
It's a place where industry experts like myself and beginners can really, really join forces
31:41
to share knowledge, swap ideas and make money through investing.
31:45
So if you're listening to this podcast, you probably are aware that saving alone unfortunately
31:50
can't make your millionaire, but investing definitely could.
31:54
So we wholeheartedly believe in the power of community in that the best investment ideas come when we collaborate and learn with each other.
32:02
So bring your friends, your mum, even strangers on the street if you want.
32:07
There really is strength in numbers and we're so excited to create a community that's just for you.
32:14
There's two quick other companies that I wanted to talk about.
32:18
One of them we've actually spoken about in the club and it's Palantir.
32:21
And there's actually a suggestion by someone in the club.
32:24
And because it's exposed to AI and like, you know, it's been kind of,
32:27
it had been the best performing stock last year in the S&P 500.
32:31
And so we did a deep dive of it and it is up 45% this year alone.
32:37
So what's that like four months? It's up 45%.
32:40
And if we think about what the stock market has done, you know, it's down about 3% the whole stock market.
32:47
You know, Tesla's down 23.
32:49
Like there's been some big moves down in a lot of names and Palantir is still up.
32:55
What's the consensus in the club? Are lots of people buying it?
32:58
If you want to know so, maybe you should jump into the club.
33:03
I was going to say I should have checked that.
33:05
Because there's also a case of companies doing really well and at what point do you sell, right?
33:10
So we definitely talk about, you know, when to sell, when to buy.
33:15
But I think this company is doing really interesting stuff.
33:18
It's got a lot of products are used by governments and like defense organizations,
33:25
which we're saying obviously, you know, this is again something we're also spoken in the club about is defense companies doing really, really well as.
33:34
There's a lot of uncertainty. There's a lot of countries that are kind of angry with each other.
33:39
So unfortunately we are seeing a lot of defense companies do really well as people get a bit nervous about, you know,
33:48
it's China and the US going to go to war. I think it's costing up, but yeah.
33:52
I think if you're interested in hearing about this particular investment, which obviously is has done really well.
33:59
And you want to learn more about it and what it's doing and see if it's an investment you'd be interested in.
34:03
And also see what people in the club are saying.
34:06
We will put a link in the podcast show notes if you're interested in having a look around.
34:10
Just one more quick company I want to talk about was Mattel.
34:14
So they're the maker of like Barbie. They hit the big Barbie franchise.
34:19
You know, Uno cards like the huge, huge, huge toy company.
34:23
And they have come out and said they are going to shift production away from China, which is exactly what President Trump was wanting.
34:36
So we're starting to see, yes, they're not moving it to America.
34:40
But we are starting to see companies move kind of their supply chains, the manufacturing and everything away from China.
34:50
That's huge years.
34:52
Yeah, well, their toys are going to go up by 145% otherwise.
34:57
So imagine a Barbie that's costing $10 is now going to cost like massive amounts more.
35:04
Where are they moving to?
35:06
So they've got 40% of their production is in China.
35:10
And there's, you know, they've been kind of actually doing this for a while because there has been,
35:15
and you actually seeing this with a few companies that they've felt this tension with the US and China for a while.
35:21
So they've started to move their production away from China even before there was kind of the headline announcement.
35:28
But they're moving it to the US, they're moving it to other countries with lower tariffs.
35:33
So they're really spreading it around.
35:35
But Trump, when he heard this news, he was like, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30.
35:44
Like, just so myopic that he thinks that children have 30 toys and then they're going to go down to two.
35:55
Like, there's children out there that may have got one toy a year because their parents could only afford that one toy.
36:03
And now they're going to get nothing.
36:05
And he's, you know, like, I don't know, I just feel like there's just such a disconnect with how he thinks this is going to play out.
36:12
Like, there is going to be, there's going to be inflation.
36:15
Toys now are going up by, you know, maybe not 145% because they're shifting the manufacturing, but one of the biggest toy makers is saying that the price of price of toys is going to go up massively.
36:27
That's got to play into into inflation.
36:30
I'm just, yeah, it's just so interesting to see how this is all going to play out because this is also going to be a huge cost to Mattel as well.
36:37
Something to relocate your manufacturing facilities is going to be costly.
36:44
Yes, it might be lower cost over the long term, but the initial cost to move manufacturing.
36:50
I just don't know why you'd be, I'd be too scared to move because I just feel like he could just turn around tomorrow and say the entire world has the same tariffs as China.
36:58
Like, these businesses could go move to India, I don't know, like all these different parts of the world.
37:04
And that is so, so risky.
37:08
I would still be uncomfortable even moving.
37:11
It's diversifying though, right?
37:13
Like, we talk about it with investment. It's the same with manufacturing facilities.
37:18
You know, if you've got some in China, some in India, some in Vietnam.
37:22
You know, if one of those countries, if's off the US, which China has, then the other ones aren't going to be as impactors.
37:30
Whereas if you have it all in one place, if that country comes up against the US, then I mean, that's probably, that's probably a good thing for the whole world though.
37:39
There's lots of manufacturing in different parts of the world and not just in China or just in the really centralised parts of where most products are manufactured.
37:48
Maybe that's a good thing for the world to spread it out a bit.
37:51
But it comes down to price, right?
37:54
It comes down to where can it be made the cheapest and now it's no longer China.
37:58
So it's like, who is willing to make my products for the cheapest price?
38:03
Is it Vietnam? Is it India? Is it New Zealand?
38:08
You know, like where is that place?
38:11
And then, and that's kind of what China was years ago, was the cheapest place.
38:16
And that's what made its economy absolutely boom, because companies were sending their manufacturing and building factories there and then getting their products made there, which created this incredible economy that is now a threat to the US.
38:31
And that's why the US is saying, hang on, you know, we just want you to chill out on your growth because you're really threatening to us right now.
38:39
And the way we're going to do that is, yeah, as we're going to make you, we're going to set you with a tariff so you're not competitive anymore.
38:46
To be honest, that insight that you've just given all of a sudden makes sense to me, because I think because I have not, I don't know about the history of the economy or like, well, I mean, when you said it, I had a real penny drop moment of like,
39:00
oh, yeah, of course, because there hasn't always been made in China, but there's, you know, in our lifetime being made in China is kind of just standard and expected for so many products.
39:12
But there was a time that that wasn't the case.
39:14
And then everyone might move it to India and then we fast forward 10, 20 years, a lot of stuff we made in India and then India could become very powerful and the US gets threatened by India.
39:24
And so it's like, you know, like these things change and yeah, but it's all because they're feeling threatened poor US just wanted to end this podcast.
39:35
So there's about 50,000 people that listen to this podcast a month and we definitely don't have all your emails and you're missing out because we have an incredible newsletter that I end up self-proclaimed incredible newsletter.
39:53
But we go into a lot more detail a few topics are talking about some other ones. Yeah, it is incredible. I love writing it.
40:01
And we get so many emails back thing like, I hang out.
40:07
Do you email in my inbox?
40:09
Yeah, it's great.
40:10
Well, I guess you're the one that writes them. So yeah, even if I'm on holiday, it makes me, oh, I have to write it because Mary and Margaret are waiting for my email.
40:20
It is quite nice to have like the content or like the brands that you consume regular that you know that they come part of your routine.
40:28
I like that. Imagine if your newsletter becomes that icon especially when you've got all these other boring emails from your boss and you're like, and then one from Vic comes through and you're like, oh, my God.
40:39
But yes, if anyone wants to get the email, we'll link it in the like to join the newsletter. We'll put in the podcast show note.
40:45
Hey, have a great day, Vic. Oh, my God. I'm back in the UK in a week.
40:48
Woohoo.
40:49
I'm excited.
40:50
I'm so excited to not be, you should see the setup of behind the scenes for the podcast woman on the studio is chaotic.
40:57
My laptop right now is on three pillows. I've got a line up there. I've got my laptop on cushions at absolute chaos.
41:06
Okay, now we need to end this because now my phone's upside down.
41:12
Okay. See you.
41:13
Bye.
41:14
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41:21
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41:26
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41:35
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41:39
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41:40
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41:45
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41:47
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41:53
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41:59
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42:08
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42:13
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42:17
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