Latest / Political Capital with Rob Shaw / September 25, 2026 - Week 1 Election Breakdown | Political Capital

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September 25, 2026 - Week 1 Election Breakdown | Political Capital · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Well, hey, everyone, and welcome to Political Capital, your source
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: for all the latest in B.C. politics. And boy, is
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: there a lot of latest to get into since our
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: last show. Yes, indeed, we did have the snap election
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: call from Premier David Eby. So much has happened. I
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: encourage you to subscribe to Political Capital daily because, holy man,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: A lot of daily activities were covered off there. We
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: just simply can't get to in the show this week.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: But we are going to talk about the election campaign
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: in detail. We're going to bring in the pod squad.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I'm going to start calling you guys the primetime panel
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: now because you're political capital prime, I think. Is it?
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: This tumbleweed is going to come across the screen there,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: but that's fine. Primetime panel. Jeff Verrier, Angela Isidoro, Jillian
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Oliver are here.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's just kind of talk about the NDP first segment.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: conservative second segment and we'll kind of go from there
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: premier david eby goes to government house on tuesday he
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: delivers a speech where he talks about a consequential moment
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: for the province donald trump is a threat starts talking
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: about wildfires and fire breaks british colombians deserve a choice
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: and the conservatives are in chaos that is his pitch
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: to voters uh jillian why don't we start with you
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: do you think it how do you think that landed
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: that pitch A.
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: Bit like a lead balloon.
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: I don't think I heard one positive response either in
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: the press or from anybody that I talked to, just
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: like regular voters. People seem confused, bewildered. They don't understand.
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: I think most people perceive the federal government to be
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: responsible for managing the trade.
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: War and Donald Trump.
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: And people feel like Mark Carney has kind of got
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: that under control right now. and are very happy with
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: his direction. On the provincial side, it's cost of living.
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: And the premier has not come forward with any clear
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: message on what they're going to do about that or
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: any reason why he needs an election to address that
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: issue when he already had a majority.
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: One person, regular voter.
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: Said to me, when I mentioned that there's an election,
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: he said, but he hasn't done anything yet. And I
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: think that's sort of like the reaction that most people have.
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: So it's not landing well. It's really marked looking at
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: how strong EB appeared at UBCM when he was talking
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: about the issues compared to this week. He looks very shaky,
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: filled with regret. And I have to imagine that's a
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: bit where his head's at, but he's in it now.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: He is in it now. Angela, what did you think
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: of the framing and the sort of launch by the premier?
• 2:45
  Speaker 5: Well, you know what they say, a week is a
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: lifetime in politics, and it's certainly the case here. I mean,
• 2:49
  Speaker 5: just over a week ago, Carrie Lynn Finlay was the
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: leader of the party. The polls were not particularly positive,
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: and David Eby was heading towards a snap election that
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: I think ultimately he couldn't put off. It was the
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: inertia of planning for it, municipal candidates dropping out to
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: run for him. You know, you already made UBCM and
• 3:09
  Speaker 5: all the municipalities upset. He was going to call this
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: election no matter what. But then everything rapidly changed. Kerry
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: Lynn resigned. Lorne Dirksen is unanimously selected as the leader.
• 3:20
  Speaker 5: We'll talk about this poll probably in a minute, but
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: he has a very solid launch, reasonable character. It almost
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: seems as though the NDP and the EB's launch was
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: preparing to run against Kerry Lynn Finlay, particularly with the
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: focus on Donald Trump. What they didn't see coming clearly
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: is that Lorne Dirksen is not Kerry Lynn Finlay, Lorne
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: Dirksen is not Donald Trump. And when Lorne Dirksen is
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: asked about Donald Trump, He calls him a bully. So
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: if you're going to stake your entire election on that issue,
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: it's going to go off like a lead balloon, especially when,
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: you know, over 50% of the population is $ 200 away
• 3:54
  Speaker 5: from insolvency.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: That's two lead balloons, Jeff. What kind of balloon would
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: you describe this as?
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: I think it's been a challenging week for the government
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: on its election call. I think they're focusing in their
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: announcements on on the right issues. They're focusing on health care.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: They're focusing on affordability and availability of housing. That was
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: today's announcement. They talked about jobs and paychecks on Thursday. Yesterday,
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: it's hard to keep track of the days. It feels
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: like it's been a month already in this election campaign.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: But they're having challenges with the framing of the issue
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: around Donald Trump. I think they've been faced with a
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: headwind that most governments who call elections earlier faced with,
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: and that is the timing of the election call. I
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: think what they're banking on now is that that's going
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: to slowly fade into the background. And as folks get
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: more engaged in the election campaign, that it's going to
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: be less about people being angry about when the election
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: was called and more about the choice in front of them,
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: which is stability with David Eby or risk with the
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: new government at a time when Trump is an issue,
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: when our economy and our jobs are all at stake.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: And we'll see. I think that will be the story
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: of the campaign.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Jeff, do you think we'll go around here again? Do
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: you think this campaign was kind of built on the
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: idea of Carrie Lynn Finlay, like Angelo said, and that
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: it's not the square peg isn't going into the round
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: hole with Lauren Dirksen on that particular framing?
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: There might be some of that. I think, though, if
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: you're an NDP strategist getting ready for an election, you
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: have to assume that the conservatives faced with election, faced
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: with an opportunity to get power, are going to come together,
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: that they're going to put aside some of the differences
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: that they've had, deal with their leadership issues and come
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: into the campaign in fighting form. I still think, and
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: I think the campaign believes as well, that with Dirksen
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: in charge of the party, that doesn't change the fact
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: that the grassroots of that party voted for culture warriors, one, two,
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: in the campaign, that there are candidates in this election
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: campaign who were staunch Carrie Lynn Finlay, more extreme right candidates,
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: And I think you'll see the government try and prosecute
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: that through the campaign. If it works, we'll see.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Angelo, the risk and the reaction to the premier going
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: two years early, like right smack in the middle of
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: the mandate rather than just towards the end or that
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: type of thing. Have you seen the party doing your
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: kind of view a good job in explaining why it's
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: so early? And what is the risk if the NDP
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: can't kind of land that question?
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: No, because the issue is that they had a majority.
• 7:04
  Speaker 5: They already had a governing majority. They could govern easily.
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: They could call a by-election for Joan's seat and fill
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: that seat as well. So it was never a problem.
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: What's going on here is the United States is having
• 7:15
  Speaker 5: their midterm elections, and in all likelihood, the Republicans will
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: struggle to hold on to the House and Senate. And
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: after that, Trump will likely be cauterized to some degree
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: when it comes to tariffs. That is issue number one
• 7:26
  Speaker 5: for EB. Issue number two is that he likely saw
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: an opportunity in the weakness of the Conservatives leading up
• 7:32
  Speaker 5: to this moment and thought, well, my own leadership is
• 7:35
  Speaker 5: potentially weak and this may be a second breath here.
• 7:38
  Speaker 5: So I think he took the risk, but I don't
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: think the risk is going to pay off. And I
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: think it's very easy for the NDP to fall into
• 7:44
  Speaker 5: the same trap as last time of saying, well, you know,
• 7:48
  Speaker 5: these guys have a candidate here or there that said X,
• 7:51
  Speaker 5: Y and Z on Facebook years ago. I think ultimately
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: the province is hurting even more now than it did
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: two years ago. Hospitals are closing their doors more now.
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: Affordability is worse now. I mean, these are issues that
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: have only gotten worse in the past two years. So ultimately,
• 8:07
  Speaker 5: when it comes to the issue of, you know, Trumpian
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: candidates or anything of the sort, you point to the
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: leader and the leader says, you know, U.S. booze is
• 8:16
  Speaker 5: staying off the shelves. I don't care what, you know,
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: some candidate in Timbuktu has to say or Salmon Arms. Uh,
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: Lauren is taking a very aggressive and assertive approach and saying,
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: I am the leader I'm running for premier. And this
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: is what we stand for.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: Salmon arm, salmon arm. That's a good place. Don't talk
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: it down. Angelo Salmon.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Is it that's different from Salmo, right? Oh man, I'm
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: getting inflamed for this one, but Salmo Salmo and salmon
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: arm are different. So, uh, Jillian, um, what did you
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: watch the premier, uh, do a bunch of events from
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: the launch to, to different things. What did you make
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: of his sort of performance? This week as a campaigner,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: as the holder of the sort of NDP brand, as
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: the prosecutor of the need for this election. What did
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: you think?
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it was it was weak.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: And like I said, it was it was very stark
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: compared to his performance at UBCM, which I thought was
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: really strong, even when he was facing tough questions. from
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: the UBCM chair about why he was calling the election.
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: He sounded very forthright and convinced that this was necessary
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: and it was convincing. And I think EB is someone
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: who struggles to fake it. When he really believes something,
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: he is very strong, comes off well, seems like a
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: real leader. This week, I think it's a real tell
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: that even he is not convinced that this is a
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: good idea. Because he just sounds like he's faking it
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: and it doesn't sound authentic. They've got to find a
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: way to dig in to his real reason for wanting
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: to lead, not just reacting. I think they've gotten stuck
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: in a place where a lot of longer serving governments
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: get where they're just sort of managing issues reactively.
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: To things. They need to find a way to get
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: back to.
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: Their vision, to sort of like their reason for being,
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: instead of just playing politics and managing the issues, because
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: I think it's really plain for everyone to see.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Struggles to fake it. That is spectacular. I'm you sort
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: of distilled it down there. I have no offense to
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: you other two guys, but I'm always impressed by Jillian
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: because she always manages to like, I live, we all
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: live in this world. And then I just hear her
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: say something like that. And I'm like, that's it. That
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: is it. He struggles to fake it. Like he's great
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: on the issues that he believes in housing reform. And like,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: he can prosecute the heck out of things, but when
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: he's not really all in, it doesn't, It doesn't go,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I guess. Anyways, sorry. That was really good. Jillian, you
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: blew my mind live.
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: I slept through the night last night, which doesn't happen
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: a lot.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Jeff, you want to just quickly before break?
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: Just say, having a cold, having a cold doesn't help either.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Okay. All right. Let's do a quick break here. When
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: we come back, we'll talk about the BC Conservatives and
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: how they are starting their electric campaign. Well, welcome back.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: I guess we should say here that BC Conservative leader,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Carrie Lynn Finley, quit the party since if you watched
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: last week's show, you would have no idea that this occurred,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: but in the avalanche of other things that occurred. Left
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: is leader of the Conservative Party on Sunday. The premier
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: called the snap election on Tuesday. The Conservatives have essentially,
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: we use this analogy during the 2024 election, we'll use
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: it again here, are building the airplane in the air
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: again with the party, bringing everything together. We're going to
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: go to you first on this, Angelo, because you've been
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: watching it. Just try to explain to people here, What
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: is going on at the Conservative headquarters? They seem to
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: have brought a whole bunch of people together to stand
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: up an election campaign, but it's not visible from the outside.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: So how would you describe it to people, what's happened?
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: You know, what's funny about Conservatives as a whole is
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: we fight amongst ourselves, but nothing unites us like an
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: existential threat of the left. And that's exactly what's happening now.
• 12:00
  Speaker 5: As soon as there was a prospect of an election...
• 12:03
  Speaker 5: you pretty much had this Avengers team come together of
• 12:06
  Speaker 5: every single leadership campaign, most of the leadership contestants and
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: staff to basically come together behind Lorne Dirksen. Lorne Dirksen
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: was appointed unanimously by both caucus and the board of
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: directors as the interim leader. His first move was to
• 12:22
  Speaker 5: immediately bring back six MLAs, three of whom were fired
• 12:25
  Speaker 5: by Carrie Lynn Finley, three of whom quit but had
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: not yet joined Peter Milibar's party. From then, he immediately
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: began negotiations to essentially have the entirety of Peter's party,
• 12:38
  Speaker 5: with the exception of one, rejoin the Conservative Party. And
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: that all happened in the span of hours. So everybody
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: got into a room together, put their differences aside and said,
• 12:48
  Speaker 5: you know what, we agree on 85 to 90% of things.
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: So let's focus on the province and the people of
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: the province. So it's a remarkable turnaround. And we saw
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: that at the press conference where you had not only Lorne,
• 13:01
  Speaker 5: not only Trevor Halford, but also Caroline Elliott, Ian Black,
• 13:05
  Speaker 5: and a gambit of other MLAs together announcing, you know,
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: the plan to fight this election and to form government.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: It is remarkable, Jeff. At the same time, though, that
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: the ghost of Carrie Lynn Finley still kind of hangs
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: over the conservatives when it's the framing is being done
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: by some of the opponents. But what do you think,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: like you've worked in oppositions before, like the collapse of
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: a leader right before an election and then this kind
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: of like on the fly campaign is, what does that
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: mean for the election, do you think?
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I've worked in campaigns where at the outset
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: of the campaign, an opposition party that I worked for
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: took a lead over the governing party unexpectedly. And that's
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: a critical part of the campaign. Because now, in addition
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: to getting points by default, you need to convince people
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: that you're ready to serve, ready to govern and govern
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: capably in this space. And in that regard, Lorne Dirksen
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: faces many challenges. He's unproven. He's largely unknown. Don't know
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: what his policy stances are on the record now. All
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: that's known is the policies put forward by Carolyn Finley and, uh, are,
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: are standing now is what the party, uh, stands for
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: in the minds of most. And he may not be
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: premier for long if he wins, uh, because the grassroots
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: that chose Carolyn Finley and, uh, Caroline Ellett won two, uh, culture, uh,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: warriors will choose permanent leader. And, uh, there is the
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: prospect that they might choose someone else, not Lauren Dirksen.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: And we might see a return to the chaos and infighting.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: And that's what the conservatives are going to have to, to, uh,
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: address in the days and weeks ahead.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Technically the party said they would just make him the
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: permanent leader.
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: But, uh, they said they would take steps to deal
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: with the constitutional requirements that might require the vote to happen.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: So it's, it's, we'll see.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Not a lawyer. Don't know how that works, but just, yeah.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: Might not even win. Who knows?
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Jillian, uh, this guy out of nowhere becoming conservative leader is,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: the blank slate, like Jeff just mentioned, we don't know
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: a lot about them. And the conservatives putting together, as
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: Angela put it, the Avengers, although I'd like to know
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: who is the Hulk and who is Hawkeye, because those
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: are opposite ends of the power spectrum and the Avengers.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: But what do you make of all that?
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think it's surprised me.
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: I think that when you have an election in front
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: of you, parties do come together, but it has been
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: even more cohesive than I would have imagined. I would
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: have thought that there would be a little bit more
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: of like a bit of a membership revolt or a
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: little bit more grumbling.
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: We've seen a little bit of bleed to 1BC, but
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: not a lot.
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: I think that like most even somewhat reasonable people recognize
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: that there's a lot of problems with 1BC and with
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: associating with them. Right now, I think it is still
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: the easiest time. We saw the NDP come out with
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: some kind of attacks on things that the different MLAs
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: have said, but they've kind of fallen flat because of
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: all of the other stuff we've been talking about has
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: been the headlines. But there is some really problematic stuff.
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: We had just like, we're not talking about old social
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: media posts. Just last week, MLA Sheldon Clare had a
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: leaked message saying that elected officials should be hung. Some
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: really disturbing stuff. And when you are running for government
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: and voters get closer to the reality of that, these
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: are people that could be in cabinet and in real
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: positions of power. And I think There still is a
• 16:45
  Speaker 4: long ways to go to see if that stuff kind
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: of breaks through.
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: We did have a lot of that last time.
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: I think the NDP still have more reasons to be
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: nervous because, you know, there was a lot of problematic
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: stuff last cycle and it fell super flat in a
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: more favorable environment to the NDP.
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: So we'll see.
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: But for now, it's kind of all up in the air.
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: It's like, like I said last week, it's a big experiment.
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: We haven't had an election with these conditions before.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Still a markedly better position for the Conservatives to
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: be in from last week's show when we were talking
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: about it. So that's an incredible, incredible change within just
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: seven days. OK, let's take a quick break. When we
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: come back, we're going to kind of wrap all this together,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: talk a bit about some polling and go from there.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: We'll be back in a minute. All right, welcome back.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: We're talking about the first big poll of the election campaign.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: Threw everything into a bit of chaos here. The BC
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: Conservatives jumping to an eight point lead or 10 points,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: depending on how you do the math, Jeff, amongst decided
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: voters and a 43% approval in the last two days. Well,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: the NDP fell down to 35%, the Greens and others
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: in the same place. That has been like a small
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: explosion in the campaign here. Jeff, what do you think
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: of this?
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: Certainly has people talking. Right now it's one poll. There's
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: some interesting crosstabs that might give some pause. And we'll
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: expect some more polls soon and we'll see if it's
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: a trend. Obviously, if you're the NDP, you're concerned by
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: the numbers. It's not what you want at the outset.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: Often there's a small bump down to start a campaign
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: of your government. This is bigger than that if the
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: trend holds true. If you're conservatives, I think right now
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: you're afraid that maybe you've peaked too soon. because it
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: makes it so that voters who are upset about the
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: election call, which seems to be what's driving the numbers
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: right now, can get that anger out. And then, you know,
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: if you have a poll here that says the majority
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: of people don't believe that the B.C. Conservative Party is
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: ready to govern, and that becomes the ballot question, that's
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: what gets on people's minds, it might push those conservative
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: numbers down because of that different dynamic. We'll see how
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: this plays out.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: Angelo, what do you think?
• 18:59
  Speaker 5: It is one poll. I think we need to see
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: if this is going to be a true trend or
• 19:02
  Speaker 5: whether this is an outlier. The number that really stands
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: out to me is a double digit lead in Metro
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: Vancouver for the Conservatives.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: That is really where the seats and the votes are.
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: Due to voter efficiency, the Conservatives can even be ahead
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: in some polls, but it may not necessarily mean a
• 19:18
  Speaker 5: majority government. In this case, it would absolutely mean a
• 19:21
  Speaker 5: majority government. This is probably the best poll the Conservatives
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: have ever had. at least since the resurrection. I can't
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: speak for 1926. But it is just one poll. I think, again,
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: Lauren has done a very good job at bringing the
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: team together. So you get rid of most of Centre
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: BC's vote split issue. 1BC is not really taking off
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: at all. So I think the Conservatives are now united.
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: But to Jeff's point, you need to sustain it. Now
• 19:48
  Speaker 5: people are paying attention. You need to present a professional,
• 19:51
  Speaker 5: serious campaign that's actually ready to govern, that shows that
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: it's ready to govern, and that gives voters permission to
• 19:57
  Speaker 5: vote for you.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: Gillian, what's your thoughts?
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: Um, well, I think it kind of, it takes us
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: back to a lot of the polls that we saw
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: before all of this mess with Finley hit. So in
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: some ways it makes sense, but definitely we'll still be
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: watching to see if it's a trend. Um, some interesting
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: numbers for the greens here. They're climbing up on Vancouver Island,
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: which is where they're sort of targeting their seats. Um,
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: leader announced that she's going to be running in an
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: incumbent Lee held riding and Spanish North.
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: In the islands.
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: Um, it's a double-edged sword for them because when the
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: conservatives go up, progressive voters get more worried about vote split.
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: Um, But the NDP plays that every time.
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: And it's going to be so interesting to see if
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: that falls a little bit more flat this time now
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: that there's more fatigue and if progressive voters are still
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: going to hold their nose and vote for the NDP
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: or if they're going to kind of want to punish
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: EB for throwing us all into this mess.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: I'll have to watch the Greens for sure on that. OK, well,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: so much. We didn't even mention that the election is
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: actually on October the 24th and the municipal election is
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the week before. So get ready for Lawn signs everywhere
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: in the province. Sinapalooza will be up. And we'll be
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: back next week with breaking down what will undoubtedly be
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of news from the campaign trail. Also subscribe
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: to Political Capital Daily to get your daily updates there
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: as well. Thanks to the panel, the primetime panel. We'll
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: see if that takes off. For being here and thank
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: you for watching. We'll be back next week with all
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: the latest in BC politics here on Political Capital.