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NFL Week 4 - Takedown Breakdown | Winning DFS DraftKings Lineups & Strategy Review · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: All systems go.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: Clear for liftoff. What is going on, everybody?
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: Welcome to the week four takedown breakdown. I got my
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: guy Bellman on with me filling in for Tambo. Tambo's
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: dealing with some sickness and trying to get his voice
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: back so we can have another profitable week five ahead
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: after coming off an absolutely incredible week four.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: Here at the nation.
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: I mean, the community, I mean, well over a million dollars,
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: I would say from the screenshots I saw in the discord.
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: I know some of our staff themselves had good days.
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: Tambo had a really close call in the four 44
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: hoop had a nice day over on FanDuel. So did Ham, um,
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: kind of litter in the top 10 leaderboard there, including
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: the ship over there. So it was good to see
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: really not just our, our, our staff members, but, uh,
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: the community themselves. I know our guys shipped the a
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars single entry for, for 50 K and then, um, uh,
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: another ancillary 150 max.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think he took second or third, something like that.
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: We'll, we'll pull his, his, uh, Line up up in
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: the later part of the show as well and kind
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: of talk through that.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: But yeah, overall, really, really fun Sunday.
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: I think a lot of stuff we can kind of
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: take away a lot of stuff again.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: Right. We'll talk about the injuries, kind of kind of
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: throwing a wrench in things consistently.
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: That kind of seems like a common theme throughout the
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: first four weeks of the season or so here. But Bellman,
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: I'll bring you in, man. How was your Sunday overall?
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: I'm looking forward to kind of breaking the stone down
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: with you. Yeah.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: My Sunday was not as good as a bunch of
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: other people, but always happy to see other people win
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: when it's not you. My day was kind of dead
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: at the beginning. I played one big lineup and had
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Jamar chasing it. So knew that was kind of going
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: nowhere and the rest of the lineup kind of done
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: it as well. So just wasn't a good day. Came
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: close in the showdown streets, but ultimately that last Laporta
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: TD got me. So, you know, we fight to live
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: another day. We got a big showdown slate tonight, hopefully
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: better luck there. But as you mentioned, man, A lot
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: of success in the ship at streets yesterday. It was
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: awesome to see. It was a weird slate, not going
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: to lie. A lot of chalk failed, a lot of injuries,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: just a bizarre slate. So it's the NFL, man. You
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: only get like 18 of these every year. Some of
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: them are going to play out weird. And yesterday was
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: one of those.
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there was a lot of I think
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: there is some definitely evergreen content that we can pull
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: away from it.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: Right. Despite the result itself.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: Results are just a process or a result of the process.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: Going in.
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: And I got some talking points to kind of talk
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: through some of that. But we got our guy bring
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: the noise in here. Coach Sav, Kid, Shippenation. That was
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: me replying there. So if you're tuning in, hit that
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: like button, hit that subscribe button. Helps us out a ton. Matt,
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: let's just get right into it here. I know we get,
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: we got kind of a hard stop here to get
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: through it here, but we obviously want to give the
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: most value to, to the community here. This is very
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: beneficial in my process. This is a big part of
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: my process. I know it's part of yours and Tambo
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: as well. That's why we, we love doing this, this
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: trio alternating on these shows here, but let's get in
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: pulling up our partner DFS OS over here.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: Just, Can't talk enough about the site. Obviously, we're partnered there.
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: You can use code SHIPIT to get the all-access $ 60
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: a month package down to the $ 30 a month. And
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: there's a lot of good stuff coming, especially for Showdown
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: and these review shows and stuff, as Tambo is linked
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: up with the founder of the site and working through
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: the weeds on adding additional features and stuff. But we've
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: got the perfect lineup here up on the screen, Matt.
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: And Kind of just talk through what your broad overview
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: of the perfect lineup. Obviously, this is the perfect lineup.
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: It's not what won the $ 20 Millie maker there. There
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: was a pretty decent delta there, about 40 or 50 points,
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: which is typically the case, right? When you look at
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: perfect lineups and you see injuries and guys like Kyle
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: Menungai find their way in here, stuff like that, Tyquan Thornton,
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: things like that, find it in here. So it's not
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: to say this is, oh, why don't you have the
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: crystal ball and play this, right?
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: It seems pretty easy.
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: Any kind of evergreen situations you can pull from this
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: and talk through it is kind of setting the shape
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: up for when we do talk individual lineup reviews themselves.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this kind of heads why I think it was
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: a weird week. You look at the optimal lineup, it's
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: got multiple guys under 1% owned on DraftKings. You just
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: don't see that usually. You know what I mean? Because
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: the best plays are usually the best plays, and this
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: week was not that. But Nungai obviously... leading the way.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: He was awesome. Not that many people were even on
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: DeAndre Swift, but the pivot to Menungai obviously paid off
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: if you played him, which not many people did. Tyquan Thornton,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: as you mentioned, he got hurt himself. He's likely out
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: for the season, but really benefited from Rasheed Rice leaving
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: the game, which hurt me. He saw a bunch of
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: opportunities after Rice left. So you get that. You get
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Drake May in the ultimate like leverage bounce back spot,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: which Ham and I talked about on the show. He
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: was the one that like of the under 1% owned
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: players outside the Giants D I thought getting to may
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: made the most sense. Thornton and Menungai were like way
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: off my radar Thornton. I looked at a tiny bit
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: cause I liked that game, but Menungai can't say I
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: even thought about this week. And then the running backs
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Walker got there late, but he was, he was a
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: boss as he always is. He had the monster 78
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: yard run. And then late in the game scored twice.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: So he's been phenomenal. Kyron Williams scored twice and caught
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: 10 balls. And then you had the CD land week,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: a lot of low ownership plays, which is why the
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Delta is so big. And sometimes you'll have that. I mean,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: only Hawkinson who caught a ton of balls, Walker didn't
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: even get to 10%. Like only Hawkinson and Walker were
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: guys played in a lot of lineups. And that's surprising
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: out of, you know, basically the rest of the team is,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: all guys extremely low on. Yeah.
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: The biggest thing I see here that you can kind
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: of apply to the slate is there's no, there's no
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: players that show up here and show up in the
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: winning lineups that were in the quote unquote quick can't
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: miss spot that everyone said is going to score a
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: hundred points. Right. And you have to play it. That
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: just shows you right. Any given Sunday, nobody knows anything
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: going in. All we know is what the field is
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: going to do based on projected ownership. And, hold on,
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: let me check my notes and realize that, Hey, projected
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: ownership typically comes through and gives you a piece of
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: the puzzle that you should feel confident in going in.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: You can't feel confident in on how the players are
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: going to produce.
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: You can feel confident of the highest own projected players
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: and where the ownership is projected to go. Typically comes
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: through outside of obviously a late inactive, something like that.
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: But going into the slate, we knew the.
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati Jacksonville game was going to have all the ownership
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: in the world. There was a lot of plays in there,
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: and I know the game script kind of played out
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: differently with Chase getting hurt and things like that.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: But the biggest thing I pull away.
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: Is don't get fixated on a game just because it's
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: a high total and all the ownership is there.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: A prime example of this one, the C.D.
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: Lamb, Nico Collins, right, game, the Houston-Dallas game was four
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: points different in terms of totals. The projected ownership in
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: that game was bottom four on the slate, and it
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: was the fourth highest total on the slate. That is
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: where you can pull away lessons and learnings and look
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: at that, right? Use the projected ownership as a foundational
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: piece into your process and understand, okay, why is the
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: ownership going here? How can I use that to play
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: against it or to pull it and then combat that
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: with a kind of lineup construction theory there? So that's
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: one of the biggest things that I pull away here
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: in terms of the process. Another thing, right, this value
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: tight ends just continue to come through. It's not just
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: to say Hawkinson, right? I didn't expect Hawkinson to go
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: out there and get 30 points. The field didn't either,
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: but he was played at 30% because there was no
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson. His price was still way too cheap at 3,300.
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: The value on the wide receivers have started to come up.
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: DraftKings has raised the price on these quote-unquote value receivers
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: to to the mid-4K range or the low 5K range
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: we're looking at for value receivers outside of different one-offs
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: here and there in different situations. But majority, you're not
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: finding high-quality floor-ceiling combination guys like you are at the
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: tight end position. And that's why you continue to see
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: these tight ends, these spend-down tight ends and two tight
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: end lineups be profitable slate in and slate out is
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: because the way the shape of the DraftKings pricing system works.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: So any additional kind of feedback points on that?
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: No, I think you're spot on. I mean, it goes
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: back to what I talk about a lot. The margins
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: are thin in the NFL, man. Like the good teams
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: and the bad teams for the most part, aren't separated
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: by a lot. That's why you see a lot of
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: quote unquote upsets every single week. Cause the margins are
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: real thin. Like the talent is the talent margins on again,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: maybe from the absolute best team to the absolute worst
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: team the margins are decent but outside of that most
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: of these teams are pretty similar so because of that
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: you're going to have games play out differently than you
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: might think every single week so i think you make
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: great points Yeah.
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: One additional thing too, how someone could have landed on
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: the Giants defense, right?
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: Who is projected to be one of the highest on
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: plays on the slate? Jeremiah Love, right? Jeremiah Love. So
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: how do you get to that defense?
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: 3,100 on the opposite side when you're not going to
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: that game, you can easily click him in there. What
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: was everyone doing at running back, right? They were using
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: the three 6K running backs on this slate.
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: Why not? Why couldn't you spend up on a guy
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: like Kenneth Walker?
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: I know the game script kind of fell into his
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: lap late in the game, but that's just That happens, right?
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: That happens in the NFL. It's the process going in.
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: Nobody was spending up at running back.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Nobody.
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: If they were, they were going to Christian McCaffrey. So
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: spending up on a guy whose role is solidified in
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: the offense, people expected the Chiefs to score points, right?
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: People were messing with Mahomes and Kelsey and Rice and
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: all these other guys, right? So going in on spots
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: like that is what you can pull out. Disregard the
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: names here. It's more of the roster construction it, right?
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: If people were spending up at wide receiver, where were
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: they going? They were going to Jamar chase and going
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: to Parker Washington and those, those guys in that game, right?
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: CD lamb, Nico Collins to spend up receivers that were
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: low owned.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: 6% for CD lamb, 10% for Nico Collins correlated in
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: the same game.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: 1% of the field played those guys together. Right?
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: So little things like that is kind of stuff that
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: you can extrapolate out. And the biggest thing is the
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: total ownership, use the total ownership as your structure, as
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: your starting point going in and look at that compared
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: to the game total and And if there's a big
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: delta like there was this week with Houston and Dallas,
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: Tambo's leverage lane, shout out to him, talking on that game.
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: And then you look at the point difference, right, the
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: Vegas total. If it's really not that far off and
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: the ownership is one-third, one-half, maybe that's probably a pretty
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: good spot in tournaments with being so top-heavy. So nothing
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: more to really add there talking on the perfect lineup there.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: It's kind of just what got there. And with a
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: big delta.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: But let's jump in and talk the $ 20 Millie maker
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: here first. A loose EJ 1973 got there with a
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: Dak Prescott, Javante Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins bring back.
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: No Aaron Jones. No Jeremiah Love. None of those 6K
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: running backs. They pivoted off of those. Pulled to Kyron Williams.
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: Shout out to Blickle on his leverage lane talking about that. 5,900
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: for Kyron Williams in that Rams offense in this spot.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: Thought that was a really, really good play. Obviously he
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: shows up on pretty much every winning lineup.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: We're going to.
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: Review the double tight end, the value double tight ends. Again,
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: I talked about my value coming through the value at
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: the other positions is just pretty scarce in general. That's
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: why you see the tight ends typically trickling in there.
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: So anything you kind of see here, the biggest thing
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: I see is no exposure to from that Arizona Giants game,
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: no exposure from that Jacksonville Cincinnati game, right? So, I mean,
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: you can get there with spots that the field isn't,
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: and that's obviously everyone's probably saying no.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Crap, right? That's obviously, right? That's what got there.
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: But from a results standpoint, what do you kind of
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: see with this kind of setup here, and how do
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: you compare that to what we knew going in?
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Went heavy on that game that you just talked about
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: with the three Cowboys that were all low owned. Whenever
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: you get too low owned play, like when you have
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: low owned plays like Lamb, Kyron, and Javante go off
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: and chalk plays not do well, gives you the luxury
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: of having a guy like Ertz not do anything. Jacksonville defense,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: because you've made up so much ground with your other plays.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: So this is, Obviously a well-constructed lineup, especially considering the ownership.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: We talk about getting different in tournaments. This is exactly that.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Then you add in this day Flowers play, who was
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: another leverage piece off of Henry, who wasn't really that
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: popular himself, but got talked about a lot. So yeah,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: pieces came together here. Cowboys really did it for him
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: in a spot that people were really hesitant to play,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: even though Houston's defense has not been the vaunted defense
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: of yesteryear this year so far.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's the biggest thing, 47.5 total.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: Vegas wasn't really scared of that game. They still hung
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: a nearly 50-point total in that spot. But, again, a
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: projected ninth of 12 games on the slate in terms
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: of ownership. 74% total ownership was projected going in. The
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: Deltas were right there in terms of actual ownership coming in.
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: Top three points at the bottom four in ownership, right?
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: So that's one of the biggest lessons that I learned
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: coming away from this slate is is really kind of
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: comparing that game to the other games that everyone is
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: going in on. And another thing I want to talk
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: about here, Bellman, is chalk is usually chalk for a
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: good reason. But where chalk, I think, leads people down
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: the wrong path is talking about that combinatory ownership, right?
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: The CMC chalk, who is he going to be paired
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: up with, right? The Trevor Lawrence, right? When people were
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: playing Trevor Lawrence, they were also playing Parker Washington.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: We knew that.
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: Chase Brown, Parker Washington was a very, very common secondary stack, right?
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: Kyler stacks. People were playing Kyler stacks.
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: Almost 90% of them were going to have at least
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: one of Addison and Hawkinson, and most of them had two, right?
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: So little things like that I think is some of
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: the biggest things to take away here that I can
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: see on this. Any other talking points here from a
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: lineup standpoint?
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: No, and honestly, it's hard for me to even criticize
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: people who played Parker Washington with Trevor Lawrence because it
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: seemed like an easy play to make. I mean, but
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: this is what we talk about in thinking outside the
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: box and using leverage and stuff. Most people aren't going
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: to play Trevor Lawrence without Parker Washington. And a lot
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: of weeks, you're going to need Parker Washington. But on
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: the weeks you don't and you don't play him and
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence has a really good week, I mean, you
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: gained so much leverage on the field. It's worth thinking
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: about those things. And yesterday it played out just like that.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, similarly, when you look at the Millie winning lineup,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: playing Javante with Dak and CeeDee Lamb, a lot of
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: people don't like to do that, but if the Cowboys
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: score enough and all those guys were low on, I mean,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: that really set the lineup apart and kind of plays
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: into the overarching theme here.
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, no, that's one of the biggest things. So when
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: you're taking a look at like your quarterback setup, right? Obviously,
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: every lineup that I build kind of starts with the
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: stack and then builds in pieces around it, right? Unless
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: they're just an overarching glaring value play at a running back,
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: something like that. But typically I start, and most people
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: I would assume, right, start with their stack as kind
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: of their foundational starting point in their lineup and then
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: work from there. When you're going in on guys like
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, right, three quarterbacks that
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: were all getting played a lot because of their stacking partners,
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: you start going down that and you see, okay, based
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: on projected ownership, you can kind of assume, what the
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: field is going to do. Parker Washington was projected really high.
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: Brenton Strange, some of these other guys within that game
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: were projected very high. So when you start going down
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: the same path as everyone else, Trevor Lawrence, okay, Parker Washington,
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: if I'm playing Trevor Lawrence, I should probably play Parker Washington.
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: You start clicking these guys, you just fall into a
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: very similar roster construction. Then when you look at the
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: combined ownership amongst the field, you just kind of really
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: put yourself in a room full of a ton of
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: people that You really have to kind of have the
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: perfect script run out to get there, right, for you.
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: So that's one of the biggest things.
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: QB plus two was 17% of the top 1%, 0.1%
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: of lineups versus the field played at a 33% rate
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: because of projections driving that, right? So that's another thing
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: to kind of take into account, Matt, is when we
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: look at these plays that are projecting off the charts
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: so well, like that Cincinnati, like that Jacksonville game, you
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: can kind of start seeing what, I mean, people are
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: going to just stack that up so many different ways.
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: It's going to pull all the ownership up from the
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: other stacking partners into that game, where then it leaves,
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: if that's the case, it leaves other spots.
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: Maybe you didn't get to the Houston.
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: Spot, but you still could have looked at other spots where, okay,
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: maybe one play is projected to be a pretty solid play,
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: but the rest of the spots aren't getting there, and
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: then Right. Well, the total is still pretty decent. It
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: looks good on the stone. It has a good optimal
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: rate on our content over here. So little things like
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: that is kind of the biggest thing that I'm pulling
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: away is just that combinatory ownership is so important. And
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: you can start to put the puzzle pieces together based
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: on projected ownership, because ownership has gotten to a point
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: where it's it's pretty good, especially our ownership. I know
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: Sheets does the ownership review. He dropped in the discord
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: this morning. We were the number one. um, site for
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: the most accurate ownership on, on this given week across
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: like 20 different projection sources that, that he backtests. So
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: you should feel good about the ownership, holding true on
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: most spots, use that to your, your advantage and don't
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: just go in and say, okay, this guy's 30% on,
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: I'm going to fade because he's 30%. Well, why is
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: he 30% and how can you play him differently? Combine
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: that and build a different structure around it to still
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: good plays because the highest on plays are usually good
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: plays for a reason.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: Right. So any, anything to add on that?
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: No, I just, I think you make great points all around.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, at the end of the day, it's an
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: ownership game and it goes back to what I said
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: earlier about how, because of the low ownership Cowboys, it
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: gave him so much wiggle room to play guys that,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: you know, quite frankly, didn't perform like Zach Ertz and
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville's defense. But when you got, a lineup full of
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: low guys that smash. And then the, like the other
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: team that we haven't talked about the elephant in the
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: room almost is the Vikings because Addison and Aaron Jones
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: were also uber chalky along with Hawkinson with Hawkinson being
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: the only guy you needed. So he only played Hawkinson
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: here that set him apart. And, you know, Addison was
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: pretty busty. Aaron Jones was mid. So, On a week
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: where a lot of chalk failed, getting away from the
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: pack meant even more. So I just agree with everything
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: you said.
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, using a pivot at the same position, right,
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: in a similar setup that if the game goes his way,
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: he can outmatch the Aaron Jones and Kyron Williams, right?
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: Using three wide receiver ones instead of wide receiver twos
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: and threes that are thrusted into a better role because
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: of the environment they're in. in CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins,
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: Zay Flowers, right? When most people have Addison, they have
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: those value kind of mid-range 5K receiver plays, right? So
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: just kind of flipping that and then getting your value
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: again from the tight end position is the biggest thing
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: that I see here. Jags defense, again, on the opposite
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: side of all the Bengals. If you're not playing all
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: the Bengals because you're leveraging it with the spend up
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: receivers in CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, right? Why not throw
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: in a Jags defense who's been really good mind you,
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: you're already off all the chalk from the, you're not
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: playing Chase Brown. You're not playing Higgins. You're not playing Burrell.
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: You're not playing Jamar Chase, right? The, the can't miss total.
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: You're going to the fourth highest total on the slate
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: while thrown in a, in.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: A Jags defense.
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: So I think stuff like that is really, really good
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: in general, but take a look at the mega million here.
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: Quick one drop King, obviously really good player. Frankie Bourne coming,
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: coming right there. Shortly edging out Tambo at the end. It,
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: in some of his stuff with the Kenneth Walker stuff
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: rolling out.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: But you kind of see some of the similar setups here.
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: You obviously see Aaron Jones in a field like this, right,
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: where there's only 634 entrants. It's obviously a big buy-in,
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: a lot of ticket entrants in here. You're going to
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: see the better play, the good projected plays show up
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: a little bit more. You see the George Kittle, who
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: was another really good projected tight end. as well that
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: kind of just got held in check because of the
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: way the slate shake shook up, but any.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: What's your initial thoughts on the mega winners here?
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, different, but the same in that, you know,
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: a lot of Cowboys CD lamb everywhere here. I mean,
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: just a monster set of Cowboys record with the catches
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: and then scored late. So, just a monster game from him.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: And he was the one that wasn't like Uber low owned.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: He came in like around 10% owned. So you're going
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: to see him and Nico Collins everywhere. It makes sense.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: Some combination of like Kenneth Walker, Kyron Williams. I mean,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: it's almost like a lot of the really good plays
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: were really good, but the best plays failed. And that's
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: kind of what we talk about also. Like, It's not
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: always about the absolute best plays projection-wise. There's so many games,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: so many good plays on any given week. What you
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: talked about a few minutes ago, it's easy to get
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: different off the games that are talked about a lot
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: with a variety of different spots that can play out,
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: simply put, differently than the Masters think they will.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that as well.
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: Another thing, too, is Looking at the onesie positions, right,
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: the tight end spot, the quarterback spot, the defense spot, right,
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: that's where a lot of the separation can come in.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: I think.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, quarterbacks, you're looking at Josh Allen.
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: Right, Lamar, Brock Purdy, Burrow, Dak, Stroud, all these guys
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: projected for pretty low ownership and all had, I mean, Burrow, 32, Dak, 30, 29.2
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: from Stroud, right? These kind of guys in different spots
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: across the slate, right, we've seen really get their Um,
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: and typically, right.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: If you see a lot of value plays, right.
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: Projecting like a TJ Hawkinson and Aaron Jones at Jordan
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: Addison wall, when you have so much ownership going to
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: that spot, most people, the easiest route to go is
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: just to throw their quarterback in with them.
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: I think is, and that's where I think if you're,
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: you're finding yourself kind of falling into that trap because
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: you can't get off of the fact that Aaron Jones, Hawkinson, um,
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: Jordan Addison, these guys project so well in their spots, um,
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: And you find in, okay, I'm falling down the same
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: path that everyone else is going to.
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: If I go down that path, I have to have
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: kind of the.
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: Perfect run out to go my way because I'm going
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: to be covered, especially in fields like this, right? Single entry,
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: it's a little bit different there, Bellman. But in an MME, obviously,
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: you're a very good MME player yourself. You play a.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: Lot.
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: Typically, you play a lot less than the max, but
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: you play in the larger field contests themselves.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: So you have an idea of that as well going in.
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: Any additional points to add on that kind of setup,
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: I think, because I think that's one of the biggest
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: lessons that people can kind of take away, especially, right,
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: most of our member base, most of the viewers are
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: playing less than max entrance, right, in these larger field
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: contests or they're winning tickets, right, and they're less than
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: max with up against pros who have a lot of
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: different avenues covered within a game environment, especially when they
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: see projections that look so good that it's hard for
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: someone to get away from.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: Right. It is hard. I mean, totally, especially when it
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: kind of goes hand in hand with what I talk about.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: There's so many good plays. It can get overwhelming, right?
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: That's why stacking is easy. Looking at projections can just
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: be easy because it gives you like the ability to
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: not really have to make a decision, but ultimately we
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: play an ownership game. And what me and you talk
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: about a lot on, especially the MLB shows is, These
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: contests are so top-heavy. Everyone's looking at projections nowadays, especially
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: when you're playing in these bigger money contests. Everyone's using Sims.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: How do you get a leg up from the field
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: knowing that? It's about knowing what contests you're playing, knowing
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: your bankroll. I think all of it goes hand-in-hand. We
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: talked about it before the show. DFS will always find
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: a way to humble you, no matter what.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: No, absolutely.
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: I want to take up and look at Tambo's lineup here.
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: He had two entrants, two tickets into the, into the
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: mega here. So again, he stuck with his kind of
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: leverage lane of the Nico Collins, Nico, Nico Collins play.
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: And really his leverage lane was fading that, that Cincinnati spot, right.
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: That again, everybody looked at it, saw the total, saw
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: the projections, saw all the plays within that game. And
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: it's like, I can't get away. It's hard for me
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: to get away. But he knew going in, right, in
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: a spot like this, how do you put yourself? He knew,
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: I mean, all the pros had pretty much a bunch
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: of those angles covered going into this type of contest here.
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: So what's your initial thoughts breaking.
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: Down this kind of build that had him in a
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: position to, if it ran out the right way for him,
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: he could have had the million dollars in his pocket there.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: And he still played the Christian McCaffrey chalk. He still played.
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: The Aaron Jones chalk, he still played the George Kittle chalk.
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: He still played the Dontavian Wicks chalk, but how he
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: played the chalk and set it and put the pieces
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: together were different than how everyone else was playing those plays.
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: They were plugging those plays in amongst the most popular
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: game stacks, the Kyler Murray stacks, right?
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: The, the Trevor Lawrence stacks, right? Because that allowed.
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: You to spend up for the Christian McCaffrey's, the spend
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: up wide receivers in Jamar Chase, things like that.
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: So what's your initial breakdown here?
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it goes into what we talk about a lot.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: It's not who you play, it's how you play them.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: And people think that just because guys are getting ownership,
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: you have to fade them. That's not the case. It's about,
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: you know, oftentimes, especially in NFL and NBA, most of
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: the time, you play the best plays and then you
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: get different around them. And this is a good example
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: of that. Now, obviously hindsight 2020 probably wish instead of
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: Aaron Jones, he played Hawkinson. Certainly the lineup, you know,
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: maybe could have gotten there. It was really close as
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: is great lineup, especially when we talked about the ownership earlier.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: And when you have, you know, this lineup finished 11th
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: with guys that you talked about, like Wicks, who was
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: really popular that didn't do anything, didn't have Hawkinson because
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: he played a low owned seeding lamb. Stroud was really
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: good at low ownership, you know, faded some of the
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: chalk that busted and, Nico Collins was really good. So yeah,
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: wish things had played out a little bit differently to
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: see him get all the way to the top. And honestly,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: Kittle scored a TD late, but was hard without Hawkinson
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: at his price tag. So yeah, man, close. But in
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: these tournaments, I like what you talked about before. Knowing
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: that the guys who are max entering, now there's only 19,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: the guys that are maxing can only play 19 lineups.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: So it's not like they're playing 150. But knowing that
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: and knowing that the guys who are playing 10 plus
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: are going to play a lot of that bangles Jaguars game.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: It does make sense. If you're playing one lineup to
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: not go all in on that game, maybe not play
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: anything from that game. I only played two pieces from
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: that game. Clearly I wish I had played none. You
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? Because the guy, two guys I
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: did play were awful, but hindsight's 2020, right? So Yeah,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: wish things had played out a little bit differently, but
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: still a hell of a nice day finishing 11th in
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: that tournament.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, one of the things too is, I mean,
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: Kittle's owned on his own.
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: McCaffrey's owned on his own at the position, but playing
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: them together, that's where you get unique in terms of construction, right?
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: Pairing those kind of together, right? The secondary stack of
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: Wicks and.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: Tyler Higbee, right? How many people.
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: played Wicks attached to Tyler Higbee and not Kyron Williams,
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: not Puka Nakua, not one of those other guys.
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: Right. And Tyler Higbee also leverages off the position.
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: It's not about, Oh, well, Tyler Higbee only scored 11
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: and he could have easily just played TJ Hawkinson who
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: scored 30. That's not the point, right? The point is
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: he was hoping the game was running through Aaron Jones.
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: Projections were off the chart for Aaron Jones. His price
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: wasn't right. It fit a lot of the, the, the,
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: the structure going in to be able to get to, uh,
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: underutilized game stack in general, right? Using the stack to
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: leverage the setup of your lineup going in, right? So
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: that's the biggest thing that I see and I can
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: take away from this week that's not results-oriented is use
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: the ownership to your advantage. Compare that to what Vegas
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: projects the game total to be at. And then how
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: does the field rank that amongst what they're going in
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: and what they want to.
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: Do, right? So that's one of the biggest things. Let's
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: take a look at the.
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: $ 100 single entry winner here from our guy B-Wald in
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: the Discord here.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: So he was in the secondary one, the 50K one. This,
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: where is it? This one. So I got B-Wald right here.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: Here's his lineup. Just an absolutely– I mean, this is
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: a nutted lineup in general here.
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: Bellman, a lot of the same stuff, obviously, but the
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: biggest thing is the spend-up running back that wasn't Christian McCaffrey, right?
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: So what's your overall breakdown here? Just, again, huge shout-out
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: to B-Wald. Turned like $ 200, $ 300 into like $ 75, 000 overall,
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: plus an entrant to the ship at games. where he
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: could win another $ 10, 000 plus in cash and prizes with
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: our free relationship at games contest.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: But how do you see this one?
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, monster lineup here, right? Like, man, considering how
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: many plays were just unfulfilling and let down yesterday, this
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: lineup seems like just monstrous, right? I mean, you get
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: the Texan stack with Stroud and Nico. Hutchinson was mid,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: but was cheap and unowned, so who cares? pair it
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: with CeeDee Lamb, who is needed. You had the monstrous
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: two running backs. I mean, the only thing that would
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: make this lineup, like, nut more is Hawkinson over Higby.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: Not that Higby was bad, but Hawkinson was amazing. It
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: got caught so many balls. Outside of that, though, I mean,
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: well done. Like, talk about ownership, all show, because it's,
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: you know, it holds a big role today, and this
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: lineup is evidence of that. I mean, got there with
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: low-owned guys, and then guys who were Talked about Walker
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: and Kittle, you know, played two pieces from that game. Just, man,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: wish I played that lineup yesterday.
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, no, for sure. I do agree as well. This
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: goes to show, right, picking your spots, picking your spots,
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: and don't be afraid to go in on them and
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: not to always necessarily say you have to overcorrelate as well, right?
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: The Kyron Williams, Higby, Rams, right? Most people, if they're
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: playing that kind of setup with Kyron Williams and Higby
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: together throughout Rams defense, because you could have played a
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: million other defenses right there. I know what the Jets
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: was right there at the same price, things like that.
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: Kyron Williams and Higby, most people playing them together would
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: have also had Dontavion Wicks, right, on the other side
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: instead of Xavier Hutchinson, right? So using your stack to
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: leverage the popular plays within that, and Xavier Hutchinson didn't
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: get there, but he didn't fall into the same trap
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: that everyone else was in playing more chalk just to
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: play the more chalk, right? It is one of the
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: things I see here as well, but a huge shout
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: out to B Walt for, for crushing here in the
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: a hundred dollars single entry, just a really, really good
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: build in general, Matt, any, any other things you, you
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: want to look at here? Obviously a lot of the
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: winning lineups are all going to have pretty much the
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: same thing in, in that Houston set up there, but
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: just from an overall perspective, evergreen process, lessons learned kind
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: of thing that people can take away and apply to theirs. Because, again,
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: nobody knows what the results are going to be. The
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: results are just the end result of your process going in.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: Anything to add there?
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, one thing, and we haven't even talked about this
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: spot that really got there yesterday because the Houston-Dallas spot
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: got there even a little bit more. But Jameis Winston
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: and the Giants, you know, I liked him last week.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: The weather was awful. Everyone was kind of just off
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: of Jameis completely now because of like one and a
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: half lackluster performances, but we've read that book before with him.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: And again, clearly he wasn't needed. He didn't need neighbors,
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: but that was also a really low old pairing that
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: didn't hurt to have in tournaments. So again, hindsight's 2020,
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: but kind of just like trusting your process and not
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: bailing on, potentially good plays because of not good performances
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: in one week when there might've been reasons for those
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: bad performances is kind of what I'm thinking about after
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: this week.
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah, no, uh, me, me as well. Um, that, that's
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: one of the biggest things there too. Um, I don't
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: really have a ton more, more to add. Um, just
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: wanted to shout out a ton of the members like
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: B wall had a great day. A bunch of the
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: other members, uh, Um, we're, we're absolutely just on fire overall, um,
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: this weekend.
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: And the biggest thing.
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: Is, Hey, if you haven't had the best week, you
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: didn't pull a lot away from this week, or, um,
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: you had a tough run out, you made a bad swap,
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: things like that. If you're going in and you're putting
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: and reviewing your process, right. And putting yourself in position,
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: eventually their cards are going to roll your way.
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: Right. Um, just, you gotta keep doing it. You gotta
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: keep staying consistent, still.
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: Trusting your process in general, working on pulling different nuggets
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: here and where and going back in, right, Matt, and
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: kind of rerunning, right, using SaberSim, using Rewinds and going
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: in and just taking a look at, okay, how can
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: I apply some of the stuff that I watched here
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: or I saw on different review shows or looked at
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: differently and Where did I make mistakes? How can I
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: learn from them? And not getting focused on, okay, this
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: guy scored X number of fantasy points.
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: I needed to play him. Well, yeah, that's what we
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: know at the end.
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: So that's one of the biggest things taken away there
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: is just, again, I can't stress enough. The game totals
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: mean a ton. That's what everyone builds off of. That's
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: what projections run off. Projections run this sport. Looking at
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: the deltas between those and what the potential projected ownership
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: is there and comparing that against the other games on
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: the slate.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: Cause I mean, there is still 12 games at the
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: end of the day. So you can't everyone has kind
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: of the same deck of cards going in. But, but
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: looking at it that way, I think is one of
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: the biggest things that I took away. And not just
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: because the Houston game was the game you needed.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: You mentioned Jameis Winston. You mentioned there's other spots, right.
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: The Dak Prescott, right. Obviously part of that game. There
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: there's other games that could have also done their thing.
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: If CD lamb and, and Nico Collins got kind of
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: 25 instead of their top 1% of outcomes.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: Right. Kirk Cousins, another one, right. With the, with the
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: Las Vegas stuff. Right. So there's just a lot of
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: things there.
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: Any, any closing thoughts from you in terms of just
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: overall process bankroll type of type of stuff?
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: No, I think kind of what you just mentioned is,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: is interesting, you know, potential strategy and NFL DFS usually
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: in the, you know, the DFS circle is small and
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: most of the time on these main slates, you know,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: let's say it's an 11 game slate. You'll have like
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: four games that are talked about by the masses for
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: the majority. And if you kind of separate from that
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: and look at the slate from another lens and maybe
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: isolate for other games and NFL plays out weird. Again,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: we talked about it at the beginning of the show,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: the margins are thin. You just never know on a
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: game to game basis. So, Again, that doesn't mean not
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: playing the best plays, but maybe playing them differently. Yeah,
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: always fun doing the show with you or Tambo or
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: whoever we're doing it with, breaking down the winners. It
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: seems easy and obvious in hindsight, but that's what hindsight
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: will do. So fun talking about it nonetheless.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, definitely fun.
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: I have had a lot of close calls as well,
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: kind of pulling the different nuggets from when you, and
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: Tambo are talking about this and just doing some review
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: in my own process there.
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: And again, some of the swaps that didn't work out, right? Again,
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: prime example. Actually, to close it out here, let me pull.
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: Up this one right here.
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: And actually, I don't know if it's going to, I
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: don't know if.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: It will, will work, but I was going to talk
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: about the, right. Again, the, the Hawkinson, right. Cause, cause
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: this happened to me, right. The, the ownership, I got
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: scared of the ownership of TJ Hawkinson, right. At a
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: onesie position. So I had the, the CJ Stroud, um,
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: I had the CJ Stroud, CD lamb, Nico Collins with
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: the Aaron, with, uh, Aaron Jones, right. It's kind of my,
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: my foundational starting point there that.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: That I had.
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: And then I had, um, CD lamb, Javante Williams and, um,
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: Flournoy is my bring backs.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: So I did, uh, I did a QB plus one
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: with three run, uh, three bring backs on the other side.
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: And then I had the Aaron Jones, uh, I think
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: I had Rams defense or something at 2,500. And the
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: pivot that I made because I was afraid of the
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: ownership was I moved Javante Williams down to Brees Hall,
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: or not Brees Hall, Braylon Allen, moved the Rams defense
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: to the Jets defense to correlate those, and then moved
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: TJ Hawkinson to pair with CJ Stroud. So I had
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: a QB plus two with just the one bring, with
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: the two bringbacks in CeeDee Lamb and Flournoy. And I mean,
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: obviously that it hurt, cost me like 47 points, cost me.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: A $ 7, 500 top five finish there. But that's again, right?
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: When your stack is so differentiated from what the field's
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: gonna do, the Hockinson ownership at that point doesn't really matter, right?
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: Because it doesn't matter, right?
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: Your stack is opening up your freedom to play the
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: highest project.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: You don't need to play all the low owned plays.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: You're already on a low owned stack at that point,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: play the best place with it. Now it's a fine
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: line and like, you don't know that going in. So
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: it's easy to, you know, be hard on yourself now
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: because you know, again, hindsight is 2020, but yeah, I mean,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: you're right. Like ultimately it's a learning lesson in that,
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: like you don't need to just play all the low
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: owned plays. Cause if you're playing a low owned stack,
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: play the best place with it, but also maybe to
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: in your head before that, Hawkinson wasn't as good of
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: a play as he seemed to other people. And that
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: also made sense too. I mean, Hawkinson still had an
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: outlier game.
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it's not.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: From our results.
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: It's just, I think maybe going back to the over
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: correlation aspect of correlation doesn't always mean it has to
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: be attached to the quarterback.
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: Right. And on the same team. So like CJ Stroud, right.
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: The three bring backs on the other side are still
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: correlated that because maybe it's, it's Javante, right. And CD
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: lamb soaking it up. Florano is just kind of there
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: as a value piece to, to make it all work.
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: And in forcing in, I think that extra correlation with, uh,
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: attached to my quarterback, I think is the lesson that
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: I can pull away throwing the results aside is, and
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: I know Blickle talked about this on leverage lane, uh,
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: pretty much this, this whole season, one of the most over,
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: over utilized things in today's landscape of DFS is attaching
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: your tight end. Um, to your quarterback at the current
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: structure that tight ends are priced at, because there's so
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: many other, I mean, obviously that can go both ways there,
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: but I kind of forced Dalton Schultz within that stack
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: because I didn't like the, the three non QB correlated
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: pieces on the other side of the game.
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: Right. So have you taken a.
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: Look at that at all with, within your own builds
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: and kind of kind of thought about that? Cause I
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: think this is, something that people can take away from
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: is when they're building their, their teams, they're building their teams.
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: It's very hard to go in and click three guys
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: from one team and only one from your quarterback side
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: in terms of your stack. But there is merit, right?
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: That if that game goes off, that can also help
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: you out. And you're making a bet on basically, okay,
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: CJ Stroud can out beat Dak Prescott. And I soak
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: enough of the usage up and his points away from
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: through Javante Williams and CD lamb itself. that I don't
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: know if it's going to be Xavier Hutchins. I don't
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: know if it's Jalen Noel, Dalton Schultz, all these other
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: ancillary guys, right? So forcing that kind of tight end
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: with the quarterback there, I think is one of the,
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: one of the biggest things. And you see a ton
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: of QB plus twos more times than not include that
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: tight end because it's typically the tight ends are the
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: value piece that unlocks the other spend up positions like
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: the Christian McCaffrey's that the kiddos, the Jamar chases of
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: the world at those other positions where, people already want
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: to spend because their projections are there.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: For me, it goes into the point of like, you
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: got to be able to be a little bit comfortable
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: with being uncomfortable when you're building because it falls in line.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: It's easy to just build comfortably and not think outside
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: the box, but the tournaments are so top heavy and
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: results are random on any given week, any given day,
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: you know, being different, not in every spot, but you know,
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: we've talked about it a lot. Um, just the benefits of,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: of thinking and playing outside the box. I think it's,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: it's always worth repeating.
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, for sure.
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: Well, um, I don't really have much more to add here. Um,
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: obviously Tambo will be back. He's not going to be
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: back today for the Monday night football breakdown, but a
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: hoop and title.
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: We'll have you covered for that.
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: That show is coming up here in about an hour
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: and 15 minutes or so. Um, We will be back
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: with this show obviously next Monday. Thursday night we'll have
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: covered heading into week five here.
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: But if you didn't have a great week four, well,
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: week four is still not over yet.
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: There's still 500K up top and multiple other contests up
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: top for the showdown game tonight, which is I think
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: a pretty decent one overall. We'll see how it shakes up.
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: But Atlanta, New Orleans, I think there's a lot of
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: interesting ways to go. I'm obviously going to have Bijan
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: in stuff, but the crew will have you covered for that. Bellman,
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: any closing remarks before we get out of here?
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: Did I lose you?
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it was my headphone.
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: Sorry.
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know what happened, but of course that happens
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: at the end.
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no worries.
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: Any closing thoughts from you before we jump out of here?
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: No, man, that's all I got. Always fun hopping on
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: a show with you. Been a minute because baseball is
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: no more, no mas, as far as shows go. But
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: at least both our teams are still alive. Your team cruising.
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: Hopefully my team gets a big W today. But, yeah, man,
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: fun times as always. Good luck to everyone tonight, and
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: let's ship it.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, good luck tonight.
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: Hopefully the Guardians can follow suit and get it done there.
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: I don't know if they have the– Bob Uecker, angel
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: in the outfield out there, though, holding home runs back
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: in the ballpark and hitting the roof and all that
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: kind of nonsense that people are talking about there. But
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: just the grind and the grit from my squad there.
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, just backs against the wall every game in
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: that series. And to do it against Mason Miller was
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: pretty awesome to watch.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: Just everyone stepping up.
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: Gary Sanchez coming in late in that pinch hit there.
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: And drawing that walk.
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: That was absolutely insane against, I mean, arguably the best
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: reliever in the game and maybe all time once it
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: comes to comes to the end, once his, his kind
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: of career is over and Mason Miller.
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: So all around post-season baseball is absolutely insane. Love to
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: see it.
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: I'm super, super happy to go over to San Diego
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: being up to, Oh, it's a different ball game. If
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: we go to San Diego and it's one, one with
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: that bullpen that they have and at home. So, um,
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: what was fun to see, um, Overall, just a great
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: day of sports. And yeah, we got more postseason baseball.
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: We'll have you covered with our content there. We'll have
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: the Monday night football content covered. I'll have the NHL
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: stuff up as well. And NBA is right around the corner.
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: So if you're not a member yet, code SHIP19. Five days,
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: $ 19 gets you everything. Full access to the website as well.
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: If you want to go over and check out DFS OS,
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: which is our partner, we used to break down all
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: of these. You can backtest projections. You can look at
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: all the contest lobbies, kind of look at, uh, portfolio
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: setups in terms of, um, what these players did in
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: MME in terms of.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: Their portfolio, who are they underweight on, who are they leveraged.
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: You can use AI to help you kind of pull
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: some of that and pull different evergreen findings away. So
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: there's tons of information here and more, um, added benefits
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: coming down the pipeline as well for, for DFS OS. Um,
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: I mean, people talk about reviewing and this and that,
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: but nobody's really about it. And this site makes it
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: very easy to do so for, um, not a lot
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: of monetary value in terms of month.
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, a dollar a day when you use.
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: Code ship it on DFSOS to get all of this
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: content available to help improve your process. And hopefully we're
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: reviewing your lineups in the weeks to come for NFL.
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: For Bellman, I'm Nades. That's going to do it for
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: this takedown breakdown edition.
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: We'll be back again, like I said, but we're going
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: to get out of here and the boys will be
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: back in about an hour right here on this channel,
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: breaking down the Monday night football game for Belmont.
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Nades. Good luck tonight in those contests. Hope to
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: see those ship nation logos at the top. We're out
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: of here.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: Peace.