Latest / Best of Business / Liam Dann: NZ Herald Business Editor on the Consumer Price Index remaining at 3.1%

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Liam Dann: NZ Herald Business Editor on the Consumer Price Index remaining at 3.1% · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from news Talk zed B.
• 0:12
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  Speaker 2: As we were saying in our news, inflations remained unchanged
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  Speaker 2: in the March quarter. The latest stats in z data
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  Speaker 2: shows the consumer price index increased three point one percent
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  Speaker 2: in the year to March, following a three point one
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  Speaker 2: percent increase in the year to December. Reserve Bank thought
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  Speaker 2: three percent, economists went two point eight to three point
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  Speaker 2: one totally hotally hum. New Zealand Herald Business editor it
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  Speaker 2: largely and Dan joins me, is it a bit ho hum?
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  Speaker 3: Well, it's a bit disappointing, really, I mean, I know
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  Speaker 3: it's all in the past, right, so yeah, but we had,
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  Speaker 3: you know, we'd only only one month of these figures
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  Speaker 3: captured the posture shock. Yeah, and even then, I think,
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  Speaker 3: you know, we had the war start and it took
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  Speaker 3: a while for the petrol prices to flow through, but
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  Speaker 3: you know, petrol was up three point five percent in
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  Speaker 3: that quarter, so that was just starting to turn. And
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  Speaker 3: I guess the disappointing thing is that, you know, you
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  Speaker 3: think about what's coming at us. It would be nice
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  Speaker 3: to be starting from a lower position. I mean, you know,
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  Speaker 3: whatever you whatever you experienced in the first quarter is
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  Speaker 3: what you experienced. Are the numbers and telling you telling
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  Speaker 3: you anything you didn't you haven't been through.
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  Speaker 2: I know, it felt like it didn't feel like things
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  Speaker 2: were getting better. No, despite everybody's saying, oh, look there's
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  Speaker 2: green shoots everywhere, it didn't feel like things were getting
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  Speaker 2: better at all.
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  Speaker 3: Look, I think there was there was some good signs,
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  Speaker 3: but you have been stomped on. I mean, you know,
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  Speaker 3: let's face it, like what oh you mean, well, just
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  Speaker 3: the amount of momentum in the economy. The business is
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  Speaker 3: doing things and the things that happened first, so you know,
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  Speaker 3: businesses start investing and doing things, and that was coming
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  Speaker 3: through reasonably strongly. So we had a really good performance
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  Speaker 3: of Manufacturing index, which means that people were making you know,
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  Speaker 3: businesses were making more.
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  Speaker 2: Stuff, were they taking on more people.
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  Speaker 3: Well, that tends to come last in the cycle. We
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  Speaker 3: didn't get that far before the next external show.
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  Speaker 2: So that's when we'll feel it.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, or the case movie. We won't because
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  Speaker 3: it didn't happen. We got slammed again. Cool, And that's
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  Speaker 3: one of the problems, isn't it. If you take two, three,
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  Speaker 3: four years to come out of a downturn, you might
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  Speaker 3: already run into the next big shock.
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  Speaker 2: And what's the psychological damage of that, Because I've already
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  Speaker 2: heard from people who are wealthy individuals that they are
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  Speaker 2: not going to invest here because and they're certainly not
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  Speaker 2: going to invest here yet because they don't want to
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  Speaker 2: see another Labor GREENSI coalition come in. They're not willing
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  Speaker 2: to put money into the economy until they know what's
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  Speaker 2: what this year.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean it is a big psychological blow.
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  Speaker 3: We've had so many false starts. We've had three false
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  Speaker 3: starts in fact in a row, and I guess that's
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  Speaker 3: where a lot of the political dissatisfaction comes from. And
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  Speaker 3: that's probably why Labor's back in the polls.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, because they've done nothing in terms of place.
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  Speaker 3: Action with the current government, which you know, I've been
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  Speaker 3: critical in the past for maybe they're not being bold
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  Speaker 3: enough on some policy moves, and I didn't like the
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  Speaker 3: tax cut and all this sort of stuff, but you know,
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  Speaker 3: they're also up against it, and any government in this
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  Speaker 3: situation would be copying it, I think unless they were.
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  Speaker 3: You know, they've said they're not going to splash the
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  Speaker 3: cash around this time.
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  Speaker 2: Maybe they needed to, well politically.
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  Speaker 3: Maybe, but it doesn't seem like, you know, like it
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  Speaker 3: does seem like they're doing the right thing, because I
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  Speaker 3: still have some hope. I mean, you know it's going
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  Speaker 3: on right now, but the discussions around the straight Oho moves.
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  Speaker 3: If you if you were to get it open, then okay,
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  Speaker 3: there's several months of oil prices to play through, but
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  Speaker 3: the next few months also have the biggest you know,
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  Speaker 3: five point billion dollars four billion dollars of dairy money
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  Speaker 3: coming to the country and interest rates about as low
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  Speaker 3: as they're going to be. I mean, people will be
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  Speaker 3: fixed at their lowest possible rates, so you'll have have
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  Speaker 3: that stimulus as well until the Reserve banks decides to
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  Speaker 3: move again. So there are some fair ones there, but
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  Speaker 3: just up against you know, like basically that the frustrating
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  Speaker 3: thing is the inability to keep a lit on prices
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  Speaker 3: of things that we just have to use. So you know,
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  Speaker 3: good news and the technology front and all that sort
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  Speaker 3: of thing. Audio visual equipment keeps coming down, so that's
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  Speaker 3: you see that in the stats. But what do we
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  Speaker 3: really need? Well, we need food, energy, and fuel and
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  Speaker 3: unfortunately electricity was the big driver of this last quarter
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  Speaker 3: twelve point five percent increase. Again, rates was another issue.
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  Speaker 2: There is any insurances, Yeah, insurance.
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  Speaker 3: There's been a little bit of easing around real estate
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  Speaker 3: and property generally, and it's the lowest rental increase at
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  Speaker 3: one point two that we've seen for many years. So
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  Speaker 3: that hopefully means some people are finding it a bit
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  Speaker 3: easier if they're forced to move around.
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  Speaker 2: Different rentaltor ways. I don't know, it's it's just it's
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  Speaker 2: just such a grind, isn't it, especially for young ones
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  Speaker 2: starting out who haven't experienced anything like this before.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it does bring to mind that period from the
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  Speaker 3: late eighties through the early nineties when it was.
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  Speaker 2: The same sort of thing. Yeah, yeah, and a good
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  Speaker 2: times for Well and Trulio and you.
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  Speaker 3: Know, it's obviously so we've seen a lot of Kiwis
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  Speaker 3: depart for Australia. I would say that is starting to turn,
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  Speaker 3: but not really for any other reason that maybe things
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  Speaker 3: aren't going quite so well in Australia.
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  Speaker 2: Exactly, some of them are well when people are coming
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  Speaker 2: back having already invested so much to get over there.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's such a country, but it has
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  Speaker 3: got it actually has three point seven percent inflation already,
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  Speaker 3: and interest rates are going up faster there, So I
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  Speaker 3: guess you know they have issues too. This is a
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  Speaker 3: you know, this this few oil shock as a global problem,
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  Speaker 3: isn't it? And so you know all we can do
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  Speaker 3: is watch and wait and hope on that one. Unfortunately,
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  Speaker 3: you know, trust and trust and who I don't know, shrump,
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  Speaker 3: can you leave? You know? I read today that so
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  Speaker 3: the US has successfully blocked twenty seven ships going through
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  Speaker 3: the strait of Hermus. Now, I just remember John Clark
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  Speaker 3: indoors those sketch. So you've your moves to open the
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  Speaker 3: straight of hermus How they're going? Oh good, We've stopped
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  Speaker 3: twenty seven ships going through. Okay, I don't know logic there,
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  Speaker 3: but I don't know what it is.
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  Speaker 2: No, I don't know either. So when it comes to
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  Speaker 2: closer to home and with the rumblings of discontent among
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  Speaker 2: the among the backbenches within National, you know, I mean,
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  Speaker 2: all Crossapkins has to do is stay storm, really, isn't it.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah?
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  Speaker 3: I mean, look, I know I'm always pointing forward, but
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  Speaker 3: you know, does National hold on with the current leadership
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  Speaker 3: on the basis that once this crisis is over. It's
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  Speaker 3: sort of pent up demand and there might be a
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  Speaker 3: little bit of a bounce back, but they're not going
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  Speaker 3: to see that until probably you know, what's the earth
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  Speaker 3: after the election? Yeah, or at best you'd be holding
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  Speaker 3: your nerve for September October. And that's so that's you've
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  Speaker 3: really got to hold your nerve then, don't you Around
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  Speaker 3: leadership and all that sort of stuff.
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  Speaker 2: That's why you've got to be really careful when you
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  Speaker 2: are campaigning. As Christopher Luxelm was on the economy, we'll
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  Speaker 2: fix it, you know he's and yes it was going
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  Speaker 2: to be a big job. But you know you've got
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  Speaker 2: to put caveats in there even when you campaign.
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  Speaker 3: And I mean, you know it may it's you know,
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  Speaker 3: this oil shock isn't his fault. But unfortunately that's what
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  Speaker 3: happens in politics people where people are grumpy and are unhappy.
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  Speaker 2: Yep. And it's not going to be any better the
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  Speaker 2: next time I talk to you.
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  Speaker 3: Probably not, probably not one day.
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  Speaker 2: It will be Are people still traveling? You know how?
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  Speaker 2: Those figures tend to show that there is definitely those
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  Speaker 2: who are doing okay and do have disposable Are people
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  Speaker 2: still swaarning off or has.
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  Speaker 3: To hit this point.
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  Speaker 2: But I would suspect next time around my hunches.
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  Speaker 3: That even if you had money right now, you might
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  Speaker 3: be thinking, oh, it's so there's so much disruption and
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  Speaker 3: chaos in the avaation sector that people will be delaying
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  Speaker 3: and that that could come that could hurt us on
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  Speaker 3: the tourist inbound.
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  Speaker 2: Could hurt us on the inbound. But maybe those who
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  Speaker 2: are staying home might do what like they did during
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  Speaker 2: COVID and spend on services and products here.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, why not hope that'll be upside.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, we found an upside and we should leave it
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  Speaker 2: there because I think if we keep talking, yeah, just
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  Speaker 2: sliding down the slope again. Thank you so much that
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  Speaker 2: as William who is our business editor at large.
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