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Truist Championship PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems gone clear.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: We lift up.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: What's up Ember one?
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: Tyler Tambaline here aka Totag and Tambo back for another
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: edition of Leverage Lane. Here on the ship at Nation
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: YouTube station. We got the Truest Championship, another signature event
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: we had one last week with the Cadillac. We've got
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: the PGA Championship and a couple of million dollar prizes
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: up top on DraftKings. For next week, Blackle's here with
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: me as usual him, myself and Mayo will be out
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: on the.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Weekend recording for the PGA Championship.
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: But first up, we got the Truest at Alex I'll
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: bring you back in man back after another good week
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: the Cadillac Championship.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Cam Young just runs away with that thing.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: He's got the confidence now, but your confidence closer, whatever
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: you want that seat to stand for, he's got it all.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: What's going on, my friend? How you doing this week?
• 1:13
  Speaker 4: Doing very well? And this is this is such a
• 1:15
  Speaker 4: good golf course. It's just such a fun like betting
• 1:17
  Speaker 4: golf course too, because the course fit translates as much
• 1:21
  Speaker 4: or more here than it does in like almost any
• 1:23
  Speaker 4: other golf course on tour. So Quil Hollow is usually
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: a really fun week and hopefully it's more of the
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: same this year.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and it was this.
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: Week almost this week, I like a year from leven.
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: We just talked PGA Championship coming up next week. This
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: is where the PGA Championship was held last year. You
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: know a ton about this course. People are gonna definitely
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: want to hear your takes on that. We'll be covering that,
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: how you think the course fit sets up, and where
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: that can be used to help find some of these
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: golfers and get through these chalk builds and building against
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: them and leveraging them like we always talk about. But
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: we will talk about they recap a little bit with
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: the comments from last week. Our guy Light he's giving
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: away two memberships. We found two really good comments that
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: are ever green from last week. We'll talk a little
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: bit about the weather and some interesting stuff there this week,
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: with it being a signature event and the way the
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: tea times go off and all of that. I think
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: Alex has a really good comparison when it comes to
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: that one. We will talk about the chalk build and
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: then we'll talk about how to leverage the chalk build
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: leading up to the one and done segment, the betting breakdown,
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: and then of course our leverage lane at the end. So, Alex,
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: anything you want to start with from last week? I
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: mentioned Cam Young off the top. Don't need to do
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: a full on recap, we usually don't, But was there
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: any takeaways from that one?
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Somebody mentioned already in the chat about you know, just getting.
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: To see these guys last week and now we see
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: them on a relatively you know, comp course type of thing.
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: But I think different course, different weather, different week, Like
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: what last week doesn't always equal to this week. But
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: any takeaways from the Cadillac or as it carries into this.
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: Week, Yeah, I think the main thing to talk about,
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: especially as it relates to course fit and how we're
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: you know, we're gonna compare it a little bit to
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: Quail Hollow, is it it wasn't quite what we expected
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: duraal La last week, where especially the first day, there
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: was like almost no skill separation from the field in
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: terms of like the guys at the top of the
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: leaderboard were not the better players. In fact, there was
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: actually an inverse relationship between skill and leader war position
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: after the first round that did kind of even itself
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: out the rest of the week. By the end of
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: the week we had something close to what we expected
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: at the beginning of the week from a course of
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: a perspective where it was, you know, a driving heavy
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: golf course and you did need pretty much everything else,
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: but it wasn't the all around test of golf that
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: at least I was expecting coming into the week. And
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: sometimes like that's because the something about the course played
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: a specific way and that was unpredictable, and sometimes it's
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: literally just variance where like I know, after day one,
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: one of the reasons why there was such like a
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: weird skill split was because it just so happened that
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: the best drivers in the field putted like crap, and
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: the worst drivers in the field putted really well. There's
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: no signal there, right, Like there's no oh, well, something
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: about these greens makes it so that if you hit
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: the ball really far, you're gonna put poorly. Obviously, Like
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: that doesn't make any sense, that's complete nonsense. So that
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: part is just randomness that you have to then overlook.
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: But this week quel hollow. It's very different in the
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: sense that year after year after year at this golf
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: course we get like this huge emphasis on driving and
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: then we also get like kind of just a nice
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: emphasis around the board basically what we expected last week.
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: So if last week played exactly the way we expected,
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: then yeah, we could say, hey, this week we're gonna
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: get like the exact same test. The course is gonna
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: test the players in the exact same way. It didn't
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: play out that way last week, so it is a
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: bit different this week.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, there was certainly some frustration last week
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: around the scoring and we wanted to finally see a
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: big test and low scores or high scores howe you
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: want to frame it up, like, obviously we saw lower
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: scores than expected, but you get the terminology and people
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: understand how that worked. So that was definitely a factor
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: and a takeaway. But yeah, Cam Yong didn't have to
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: do too much on Sunday to close that thing out.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: When he's putting like that. Mayo and I looked at
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: it yesterday.
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: Somebody mentioned me as well, his buddy that he has
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: now on there as his caddy. They're like, oh, he's
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: a great greens reader, and so yeah, maybe that could
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: be of it as well, you know, having someone help
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: him out get a little more confidence that way, with
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: just who's on the bag with him and what they're
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: doing for him or helping him with that's part of
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: it as well. Shout out to Jason's as greatest PGA
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: show out there right now. Definitely make sure to hit
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: that thumbs up. If you're watching on mobile live, just
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: click the X on the chat for a second, click
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: the thumbs up, come back, and then make sure to
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: leave your comments. I mean, that's gonna segue right into this, Alex,
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: But we have two winners. First off, I'll go back
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: real quick. Just a couple of weeks.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Ago at the Masters, I came in second to Lighty,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: so a couple of six bigger screen shots.
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: But our guy light He's giving away two all access
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: one hundred dollars memberships over to ship at nation dot com,
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: and we said we would pick a couple of comments.
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: We want you guys to leave your comments every week.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: You can't do it where you're watching live, but if
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: you're watching this on playback or you wait till the end,
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: leave your comments then on YouTube for us, and it's
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: just for the evergreen portion.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: The first twenty twenty five minutes.
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: We usually go through this so you guys can have
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: these ideas and then go back and check them out
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: in the future. If you say, hey, I know Alex
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: and Tambo talked about this last year at this exact event.
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: I want to remember what they said about that you'll
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: be able to go back and actually apply some of
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: the theory and conversations there. I know some questions in
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: the channel that will bring up shortly, but this was
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: the first one from my guy Matthew Banister, and he said,
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: evergreen question. I'm curious from each of you commenting on
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: win equity projections as part of analysis for lineup relative
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: to point projection.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: I e.
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: Shout out to the big Guy in the sky, our
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: guy Djen seventy five more by the way, on the
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: Big Guy.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Event coming very soon.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: Hoop and I are closing in on that this week
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: and we'll have some details. But it's gonna be August,
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: I can tell you that much. We just haven't got
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: a final.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Date yet, but we'll be more on that very shortly.
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: But it said Big Guy had once commented wanting eleven
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: to thirteen percent win equity.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Not all plays are equal, of course. Thanks.
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: So first off, one thing I will say about our
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: our friend Djen, just to go through this Obviously, you know,
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: it sucks here going through these things when he's not
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: here with us to discuss them, but just to say this,
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: and I obviously had tons of conversations with him around this.
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: He's not saying you need to bracket yourself into eleven
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: to thirteen percent. But a lot of what Djen taught
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: was for a new player coming onto the seat, and
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: so a lot of his thoughts and process that he
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: was teaching, like if you're gonna play Scotty.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: At thirty percent, get sixty.
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: If you're gonna play someone at fifteen, get thirty, like
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: double the field. If you're gonna get win equity as
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: part of your lineup, get this certain percentage. It was
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: really to teach you the concept more than the bracketed number.
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: You know, don't play donkey chock, except when we do.
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: It's saying, like, to keep in mind these factors, but
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: one thing you don't want to do is just bracket
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: yourself into an exact number. Like at the end of
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: the day, if Scotty wins the tournament, he's got twenty
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: nine percent win equity and you built for eleven to thirteen.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Goodbye. Those laeps are all dead. Every single one of them.
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: So it's like, it's not telling you that, it's just
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: saying to be cognizant of what you're doing when you're building.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: I talk about it all the time. DFS is how
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: not who? Again? More on that in a bit.
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: I saw a question in the chat that I want
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: to talk about, but just to keep this in mind, Alex,
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: I'll kick it over to you. The one thing the
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: big guy said, and I know that this was important
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: and it makes a ton of sense, was more the
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: concept of, yes, keep this in mind, but on a
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: Scotty week, which this is not so this is ever
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: he said, if you got a twenty nine percent.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Scotty, you can't make up the win equity. You're not
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: gonna find it.
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: You're not gonna find thirty percent across six guys very
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: likely that fit together because the next highest win equities
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: are gonna be right behind him.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: So there's no way to really do it.
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: So though in that case, he always said, like on
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: a cut week, one way to do it if you're
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: building this way was to look for a lineup that
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: had really good maid cut equity, because your goal is, yes, Scott,
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: he's got the win equity.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: But he's got to drag along the exact five guys.
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: My joke always of yatzi yati chef, you got chefer,
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: and then you gotta get the other five dice right
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: of the players. He's saying that with that situation, you
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: can't get to the win equity, So therefore you should
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: try and bring the made cut equity and hope you're
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: gonna have a six to six that then can do
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: things for you over the weekend and even get scenarios
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: where Scotty might win by a stroke but he doesn't
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: bring enough guys along with him.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: That make those lineups work.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: What's your thoughts on Matt's question here, and congrats to
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: Matt the first winner of the month membership.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: We'll just add it to your account. You can reach
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: out to me direct. Yeah.
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: I really like this question because it gets at so
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: many aspects of lineup construction that we've we've talked about
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: a lot this season, and so the part that I
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: will kind of elaborate on is just asking the question,
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: what does this win equity do for me? So I
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: really liked the fact that you, like you already kind
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: of separated Scotty lineups for non Scotty linemps for me,
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: because you know, there were times last year, especially when
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: Scotty was fourteen hundred dollars and forty five percent owned
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: in single entries, it's like, yeah, you know what, he's
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: got a thirty percent win equity, but if he wins,
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: I still have to beat forty five percent of the field.
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: Like I'm not even guaranteed to cash or I'm not
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: even you know, in a great position to cash if
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: he does go and win. So yeah, like the number
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: one question that I think you have to ask is
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: what does this win equity do for me? Whereas you know,
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: you might only have three percent win equity from a
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: you know, Hideki Matsuyama or Chris Gottterup or Tommy Fleetwood,
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: but if that guy goes on to win, he's helping
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: you dramatically with your lineup, because that's that's you know,
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: those are fantasy points that most of the field is
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: not getting. And so that's the number one question to me.
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: And so I think like that We've talked about this
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: concept with like a sliding scale of things a lot
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: as well this year, and I think this is another
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: one of those areas where one lineup might have thirty
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: percent win equity, but most of that win equity is
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: coming from someone who's not really going to be a
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: separator because he's too chalky. And another lineup might only
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: have eleven to thirteen percent win equity, but most of
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: that win equity is coming from guys who can help
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: you really separate from the field, and so that win
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: equity might actually be more valuable.
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I also will say it's it's of a
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: secondary note at least for me. It's not a tiebreaker
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: for me. This is not a category or a column.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: I think it's interesting to have this column. I think
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: it's good to know these things and think about this
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: as you're going in. But typically that's going to be
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: involved anyway. If you're looking at projection, a lot of
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: this stuff is baked in. So just so you know,
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: I'm also not using it exactly that way, but it
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: was more of a guideline. DJ and always put out
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: there to say like, hey, if you wanted to have
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: something to go off of, this will probably put you
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: spoiler alert. When you were going by win equity and
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: sorting it that way, you were able to land on
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: a pretty good projected points lineup. Because again it's baked
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: into that type of stuff as well, and you may
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: have been a little bit off here and there, but
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: I think that's just a good one and that's a
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: quick way to go through that.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Any follow up questions, you guys could throw them into
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: the chat here now.
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: Second up, congrats to Sticky TP, says I don't know
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: if you want to be using any sticky TP when you're
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: getting the job done, but I will say, great, he'said
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: great show guys here, she said, great show guys would
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: love your thoughts basic strategies on a showdown slate. I've
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: never had any luck or I'm going about lineup's completely wrong.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Thanks. We've talked about this may and I talked about
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: it yesterday.
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: I am gonna kick it to you first, but I
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: will say it is funny that there's so many people
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: that love Showdown and say it's like the only thing
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: they can figure it out in is like the only
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: thing I have success in a showdown. But there's also,
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: as usual, a flip side to that, and it's people
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: saying I feel so much better about classic I suck
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: at Showdown, And I think that's what Sticky TP is saying,
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: and that's okay, that's what we're here to help with.
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: So what's your first takeaway on this? Out You've had
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: a ton of success in the Showdown streets across all rounds.
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: I think you like certain rounds more than others and
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: maybe see different edges and angles, but you've been really
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: good at attacking those even from a single entry perspective.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: So what's your thoughts on this?
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: I think it's you know where I'll go with this
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: answer is I'm going to compare it to NFL Showdown
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: because I think it's the same thing, like what you
• 12:19
  Speaker 4: just said where in NFL dfs. I think a lot
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: of people agree, it's like, man, classic slates are so tough,
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: but I find it easier in Showdown, and other people
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: are like, I'm really good at classic slates, and then
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: I have no idea how to approach Showdown. So very
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: similar sentiments between main slates and Showdown and in the
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: two sports, and the big comparison between the two, the
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: big parallel between the two is in NFL Showdown and
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: PGA Showdown, the way you get different, the way you
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: create edges for yourself is a lot simpler than on
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: main slates, where the difference in a round three showdown
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: can be as simple as I'm just gonna stack early guys,
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: Like I see an edge and I'm just gonna stack
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: early guys when other people aren't that same wave advantage.
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: You know, it's one thing if like, if there's forecast
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: for a ton of wind in the afternoon and there's
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: no wind early, okay, a lot of the field is
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: gonna be on that. But if your thought is, you
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: know what, I see a wind shift coming in the afternoon,
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: so wind speeds are gonna be the same, but the
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: wind is shifting into a more difficult direction. Or the
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: course is played a lot tougher in the first two
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: days in the afternoon, not because of wind, but because
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: it just gets firmer and it's gonna be firm again tomorrow.
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: So I'm gonna predict a wave advantage that the rest
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: of the field doesn't find, and then that comes to fruition.
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: You're in a massive advantage if you played that, you know,
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: on a Saturday morning, stack something like that so you
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: get that sort of advantage. Similarly, like an NFL showdown,
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: sometimes the edge is as simple as, oh, everyone's playing
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: the ravens. I'm gonna flip it and I'm gonna stack
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: the Steelers instead. I'm gonna have a five to one
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: Steelers build. And you know, now, if the Steelers are
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: competitive or they just have more play volume, like, that's
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: gonna work out really well for me. And so the
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: edges are a lot simpler to find. You can have
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: like these very simple strategies that pay off in a
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: huge way, or as in the main slate, it like
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: you've got to balance this win equity and all this stuff.
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: And so I think you can really simplify your approach
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: on showdowns. And then the other thing to realize is
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: when you have four rounds of golf, talent is going
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: to rise to the top a lot more often, where
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: by the end of the four rounds, chances are the
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: better players are going to end up near the top,
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: the worst players are going to fall like maybe they
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: have two really good rounds then they give it all
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: back on Saturday. But in one single event, in one
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: single round, I should say the likelihood that worst players
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: end up at the top of the leader board and
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: best players end up in the middle of the pack
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: or the bottom is just a lot higher. The full
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: range of outcomes is compressed. So like, if you look
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: at our win odds this week, you know you see
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: Rory at eleven percent, Cam Young and Xander at six percent.
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: If you look at who's the most likely to shoot
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: the lowest round in any one given round, You're not
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: going to see eleven percent, six percent, six percent. You're
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: gonna see like five percent for Rory, three percent for
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: Cam Young, three percent for Shoftley, things of that nature.
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: So everything just gets compressed. And the nice thing there
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: is it kind of gives you license to be more contrariant.
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: So I think that the two biggest things to keep
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: in mind in Showdown. Number one is look for the
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: simple way to get an edge correlation. You know you're
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: you're making one like conditional probability. Bet I'm betting that
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: the conditions make it so that if I have all
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: early guys or all late guys, that I'm going to
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: be in good shape. And then the second thing is
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: just get that license to be more contrarian, build riskier
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: lineups than you do in main slate. There's no miscut
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: risk in in Showdown. So I think those are the
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: two main points to keep in mind. And and uh
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: and yeah, I think give you stick to those. Like
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: the other thing I noticed with myself in Showdown is
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: I get last place a lot, not necessarily last, but
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: like I know that I'm dead six holes into my guys,
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: It's like, Okay, I didn't play this right, but that's
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: okay because when it goes well, it's going to go
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: really well. And that's a trade off that we should
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: make all the time in the DFS.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you'll go collect said well said. I couldn't say
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: it better.
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: I do have a couple of quick ads that are different,
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: but I'm gonna use one for your NFL example, and
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna try and tidy this up in two minutes.
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: But the last part that you just said is kind
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: of like the first or last. That's always fine. And
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: I will note I think for the people that say
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: and it's not a shot at them, it's just.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Noting the facts.
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: I think people play less lineups. Okay, it's Showdown. They
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: already had a bunch into Classic or whatever. They're just
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: getting a taste of that, which I think is bad
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: when someone actually thinks they have an edge, because if
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: you think you have an edge, like I said before,
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: if you can already get your pool from round three
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: has already gone from one to fifty down to seventy five.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: I'm just rounding numbers.
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: And of those seventy five, you only like the morning guys,
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: you're down to thirty three. Let's call it round up
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: and then or whatever it is, thirty seven and a
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: half and call like, there's a half. My point being
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: then you're saying, Okay, your pool's already smaller, and you
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: feel that's where the edge is. But how are you
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: going to get the exact right combo out of those guys?
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: It should be exciting that you've already got it down
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: to an edge, a spot, a smaller pool, and now
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: just go build twenty lineups for a dollar instead of
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: a twenty dollars, you know, single entry, but to each throw.
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: And I'm just like, I think that's the way I
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: look at it. But one of the notes you said
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: is also a part of it. Why you know, I
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: think people struggle like I suck at this?
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: Well, what do you play?
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: I play one five dollars, single entry every week? Well,
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: so you give yourself one lineup in a game of
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: showdown of opportunity for you know, the every week, and
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: there's thirty five weeks.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: But that's really only thirty.
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: Five shots and you're gonna fail more often than you're
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: gonna hit, So you're really not gonna expect to win
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: very often at all.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: And that's fine.
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: Again, over time you can build more skills different angles,
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: learn from that, whatever you want to say. But I
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: think that's part of the thought process as well, is
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: not as many people are playing as much, and so
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: then they think like that means they're bad at it.
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: It's really hard to tell when you're just playing it
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: that way, like one lineup per day. Second note, you
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: brought up the NFL thing in showdown of any kind.
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: To be honest, Baseball that you know any of these things.
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: Your lineup needs to tell a story really in DFS
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: as a whole, and in this specific example, I mean
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: in a round four, it's extremely import because like, okay,
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: if Cam Young, is he gonna matter because of the position,
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: plays some points and it's a hard course, or is
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: he just gonna go for fairways in the center of
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: the green and make pars to win by six and
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: of course others are gonna be able to dial in
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: and score on well, then you might not need him
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: as much. Even so, even though projections are gonna push
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: him even in the other round zone. Your NFL example,
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: just flipping it if you have a portfolio, just flipping
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: a Ravens Steelers game from five to one Ravens heavy
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: that people are on or four to two Ravens and
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: going the Steelers side is probably fine because let's say
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: it's like a fifty five forty five, but the field
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: is waiting the Ravens at a seventy five. Well, man,
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: you're in good shape. And that's just the numbers goose.
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: Oh so you're just playing a numbers game. It's not
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: just that, because then there's levels to that. But it's like,
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: is it more like, okay, so then how do this?
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: How do you see the Steelers beating the Ravens. How
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: do you see these golfers going? And I'll do a
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: golf example to round it out. But if that's the case,
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: then you build your Steelers line up accordingly to go
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: against the field, but also in a way that makes sense.
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: So it's like it still makes sense of what you're
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: getting to on either side, even if you still have
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: a chalk raven in there. It's the one that makes
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: the most sense. You could still see it where Derrick
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: Henry just gets the eighty yards in a touchdown and
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: he's the only raven that's needed. But I see it
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: this way for the Steelers side. Like that's just an
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: example in golf. To Alex's point, here's one round three
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: the field smaller, people feel better. People love to jam
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: a morning wave on Saturday mornings, but oftentimes there's no
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: real wave advantage that they're jamming it for. It's just
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: what they feel better about. But sometimes you'll see where
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: it's like much cooler tempts on that morning and it's
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: actually just warms up and there's really no wind all day,
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: and the guys that are playing the best actually play
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: in the afternoon.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: We've already got data on them.
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: Everyone's jamming the morning guys because they fit so nicely
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: together and all they could see this and these approach
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: stats and all this, and then all those lineups go
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: to the pasture and people are like, well, what happened here?
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: I thought that was the advantage.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: It really wasn't.
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: It was just a falsified advantage that you've created that
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: felt good when you press submit. And that's okay, I
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: understand this, but that's what people say like, well, it
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: felt good building it, and then what happened was the
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: people that actually played what the real edge was was
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: going the other way and just playing the guys that
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: are playing the best in the better temps with no wins.
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: Still they end up having all the winning lineups and
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: all those people that ran to play those morning lineups like,
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: oh that sucked. You didn't really have a story. You
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: were telling a story, for sure, but you didn't really
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: have an edge. You just falsified one to make it
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: feel good when you press submit. That happens a lot,
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: by the way, and I know you're heavy into this stuff.
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: In the MLBDFS streets. You can build a five to
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: two to one or a five to three. What people
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: should be doing is totally different story, not for this pod,
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: but just to note it. You can build a five
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: to two one, a four to four, unfan anything you
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: want that looks really good. It doesn't mean it's anywhere
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: near a really good lineup for that slate or whatever
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: it might be, but it feels good.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: So then you start thinking like that must be the one.
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: I better put it everywhere, I better put more money
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: on it, all these factors. But it might not be
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: even close right when you look at some of that stuff. Why,
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: I think having projections, optimizers, thinking about game theory, what
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: the field is doing, the type of contest you're in,
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: all of that stuff matters a lot. And I think
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: it answers this one to Alex really quickly, of like,
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: what do the best just take out PGA, What do
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: the best DFS players do that separate them? It's a
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: mixture of all the stuff I just said. And then if,
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: like Alex, you can combine true ball knowledge where you
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: actually might know some stuff of course fit which you're
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: going to talk about for the truest here in a
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: moment or things like that, then yes, that's probably the
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: best of both worlds if you are. I'll use an
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: example most people in the DFS world know now retired,
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: We'll say, but Petty Theft in NBA. You can look
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: at his lineups. Should definitely check out his lineups when
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: he played MBA. But you can't replicate that because he's
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: been live on shows explaining that he's doing his own projections,
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: with his own rotations, with stuff he sees that you don't,
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: so his ball knowledge can't really be translated to you.
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: So while you look at his lineups and say, that's
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: crazy this man had. I think the famous one was
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: he had seventy percent Karl Anthony Towns back on the Timberwolves,
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: he was six percent owned and Petty won like first, second, four, fifth, seventh, eighth, nine.
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: He cash six of his twenty seven lineups in the
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: eight eighty eight and it was like for four hundred
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: k in that tournament he won, and people like, how'd
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: he get there?
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: It doesn't it didn't matter.
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: You would never have got like, you can't figure it out.
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: What he figured out was not just the town's thing.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: That's part of it.
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: But I'm saying that was part of his process that
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: you can't get to. So it's definitely to me a
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: lot more about the game theory, the roster construction, the
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: tools that help us get to that, all that stuff.
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: But if you know ball, you can do stuff with
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: that as well. Alex, I'll let you chime in on
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: this part and then we can move on.
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this is a great question. I think
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: the answer is number one a little bit different for
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: each guy. And I think the second part is for
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: most it's probably a little bit of everything, right, Like
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: we're all trying to find as many subtle edges as
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: we can find and hope that those subtle edges add
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: up to a large edge, right, because it's really difficult
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: to find that really really large edge, like especially nowadays
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: with projections and basically any sport like the industry is
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: already at a level of projections where they're quite accurate.
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: You can build something more accurate if you really put
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: the time and effort in, but the gains that you're
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: going to make over the market or the industry's accuracy
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: are small. So where you can make it larger, where
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: you can find a larger edges by having more accurate ownership,
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: by being better with game theory, by using contest sims
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: in a better way than most people are using them,
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: by using the fact that other people are a little
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: bit more predictable because of the way that they're using
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: contest sims, so you can find ways to leverage that.
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: And then you combine all these things in those very
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: small edges, very subtle edges add up to a bigger one.
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: And I think that's that's the strategy that those people
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: are using.
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, one thing they're speaking of contest sims. I want
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: to add this from earlier, and then we'll wrap up
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: this segment of and congrats to them at Banister and Sticky.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: TP get it.
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: Get a hold of me on X or in the discord.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: If you're with Ship and Nation whatever, we'll get you
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: set up with the prize. Shout out again to our
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: guy Leidy who gave those away. We showed the big
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: screenshot off earlier winning two hundred K at the Masters.
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: Huge win on that Sunday Round four showdown. But Jason said,
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: I felt in my exposures, but tore the latter part
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: of this. I want to talk about quickly with contest
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: sims blended in is it better to adjust the projection
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: points or to adjust the exposure percent? Exposure percent will
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: get you to what you want easier, but if you
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: don't adjust the projection points to what you actually see
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: playing out your contest, SIMROI will be a little bit
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: out a line and you just have to recognize that
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: and know it if you're gonna go through the exposure percentage.
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: But if you are doing it properly, you should be
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: adjusting the projections so that it's recognizing that you are
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: actually getting a lineup that projects better with the options
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: you want the exposure to to give you more of
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: a true contest SIMROI. So I don't got to belabor that,
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: but just want to note that quickly before moving on.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I do.
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: I do think there's risk in that strategy though, because
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: when you when you start going down that path, I
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: think a lot of people end up just tweaking the
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: projections until they see the contest SIMROI that they were
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: hoping for and they say, oh, yeah, nice, I just
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: built a good lineup. And so and you know what,
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: what I've talked about in the pastway contest sims is
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: I like to use them to help answer questions. Right,
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: So let's say I have I want to stack, you know,
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: the early wave or something like that. Right, So I
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: want to build, and now I've got I've got five
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: guys that I really really like, but I'm torn on
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: the six There's nobody that I actually like in the
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: early wave in that sixth spot, and there's a guy
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: that I really like in the late wave, But is
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: losing the correlation worth getting the player that I think
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: is so much better? Okay, that's a question that I
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: go ask the contest hims. I run those and now
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: I say, you know, I run it with with the
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: with the guy that makes it a six zero, and
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: I run it with a guy that makes it a
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: five to one, And if the SIMROI is really close,
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: then I can kind of take the you know, my
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: takeaway can be Okay, this is probably a personal preference thing.
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: If the SIMROI is huge in one way or the other,
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: now I get my answer right and so h that
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: to me is like the better way to use contest sims.
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: And if you're tweaking projections left and right now you're
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: you're kind of forcing it into the answer that you
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: want instead of letting the constessims actually answer questions for you.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: Agreed, Yeah, that's a good one to round it out on.
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: Matt just asked them with the win equity again, and
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: so since he's here and he won, congrats to you, Matt.
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: I know you hit me up overnight in the discord already.
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: Is just send me a message. I'll get you set up.
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: But he said, what level do we put into this?
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: Obviously over at ship Nation, like with the Stone, this
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: was a DJN legacy P speaking earlier, we always have
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: that on there.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: But look, like I.
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: Said, spoiler alert, look at these win equity percentages and
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: look at these projections.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: They're all lining up. Now.
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: If you want the cheat sheet and the tool and
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: be able to go through and you can favorite your
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: golfers and get to your player pool, you can sort
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: this stuff and compare it. It's got everything on the
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: one sheet and then you're able to sort of put
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: the stone up on one screen, you optimize the other
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: and build. You can get that over at ship and
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: Nation before we get to the next segment. Forty nine
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: dollars right now to get in for all access for
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: the month. That is less than we charge for just
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: PGA content only. So if you want that, go to
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: ship atnation dot com. But just to round out the
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: segment on what Matt was talking about, do you use
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: this at all or like I guess a better put
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: it just on a secondary note because he asked about
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: the owner.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: I use the second part way more.
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: But do you use the top twenty odds, the top
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: ten odds or using any of that stuff or you
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: got it already baked in?
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: I mean I so the the GBP scores do all
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: of this on their own. What we have over at
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: FTN Fantasy where the GBP scores are essentially saying how
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: likely is this guy to get a top five finish,
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: top ten finish compared to his ownership, and just using
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: those numbers to determine whether he's under round or over owned.
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: So that's already doing that for us. But to answer
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: this question, like, I look less at win odds and
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: I look more at top five, top ten odds because
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: simply because you're gonna get those outcomes a lot more
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: often than you're gonna get the actual win and win
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: odds are largely dependent on our new like contention performance score,
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: So when you get in contention, how likely are you
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: actually to get the job done? And so I use
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: win odds for outright betting, and then I use top
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: five and top ten odds for you know, my my
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: sense of DFS upside perfect.
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: All right, we're two minutes earlier than usual getting to
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: the trust. Let's start with Aaron's point here, and you
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: can bring weather into this if you want. I think
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: that's a secondary but it's up to you do you
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: want to start with that or go to this. But
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: I definitely do want to hear this myself as well
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: as I had so much fun doing the show with you,
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: but your take on sort of the current setup this week,
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: how it relates to course fit, And then he's asking,
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: I mean I added that in, by the way, so
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: it's my little slide in.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: But this one is versus the PGA setup. We talked
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: about it earlier.
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: Obviously qua Quail Hollow sorry, was the host of the
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: PGA Championship last year. We are having the PGA Championship
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: next week at a different course, another fun one, but
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: this week talk about this and then we'll bring the
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: weather into it as well, with sort of the signature
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: non cut factors brought in.
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: One of the things I want to do a better
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: job of when talking about course fit is explaining why
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: certain skill sets are enhanced by golf course. So instead
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: of just saying that, hey, this course you know, really
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: emphasizes distance and accuracy off the tee, which it does,
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: I think we can actually talk about why that is.
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: You get a better sense of, you know, why we
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: should trust the data, you know, because sometimes, like as
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: we talked about earlier, like sometimes you just get random
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: putting spikes from one group of players, bad putting rounds
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: from the other, and that's not something that's predictive. This case,
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: the course fit is really predictive with distance in accuracy,
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: and you can use the first hole here at Quel
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: Hollow as a perfect example. So I saw someone do
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: a good job on Twitter. I wish I could remember
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: who posted this, but they were showing the difference between
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: Rory's drives and some other drives on the first hole
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: where Rory was let's say, fifteen yards further off the tee.
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: But because he's able to cut the corner of the
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: dog leg right a little bit, take on some risk
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: because you can lose the ball right if you don't
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: carry it far enough, get sknocked down by trees, things
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: of that nature, and it's a disaster. Rory can take
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: a more aggressive line, and therefore his fifteen yard you know, difference,
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: his fifteen yard advantage turns into a sixty yard advantage
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: in terms of how much closer he is to the
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: actual So you get that type of huge boost to
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: driving here. And notice that that's both a distance and
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: an accuracy advantage. If you are simply a bomber, you
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: can't you can't take advantage in the same way that
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: someone like Rory can, because number one, if you don't
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: have the accuracy, you can't take on the same level
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: of risk because suddenly a bad shot turns into a catastrophe.
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: And number two, if you can't accurately cut the corner,
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: now you're not getting the directional advantage that increases the
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: distance advantage. So you have that sort of thing. You
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: also have some high leverage shots, high leverage par fives,
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: where the extra distance just makes it that much more
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: likely that you're in a really good scoring position. So
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: all around this golf course, it's very clear and intuitive
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: to see why driving is so incredibly predictive here in
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: both a distance and accuracy perspective. And I I don't
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: like to talk about, you know, the the stroke skin
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: driving accuracy too much because people probably get tired of
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: hearing about it sometimes. But there was another really good
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: example from this past week where Cam Young gained eight
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: yards to the field off the tee. Last week he
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: lost fairways hit by two percent, so he hit two
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: percent fewer fairways than the field. He gained one point
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: two strokes off the tee per round. He was incredible
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: off the tee. And if you're just looking at distance
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: gained and fairways gained, you don't see that at all,
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: and so strokes gained driving accuracies picking up something that
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: you know, percentage of fairways hit fairways gained simply cannot
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: And that status is going to be really important this
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: week because you can much better identify the guys who
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: are both long and accurate off the tee, like Rory,
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: like Cam, like Xander, now like a slow of other
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: guys in this field that really just get a massive
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: advantage compared to what they usually do. But then the
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: other really cool thing about this golf course is you
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: get boosted predictive value for approach, play around the green,
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: play and putting here as well. In a putt is
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: the really interesting one that I want to talk about
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: because not just it's not just that we have this
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: you know, PGA Championship effect from last year, but they
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: also did a renovation to the course after the twenty
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty twenty three season. So the last two events
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: were with renovated greens, redone greens that kind of made
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: it a little bit more playable where they could add
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: more pin locations things of that nature, and putting saw
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: a huge spike and predictive value from that renovation. It
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: has been more predictive than usual in each of the
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: last two years, and it was less predictive than usual
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: before that. So I'm paying a little bit more attention
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: to putting than what the model is even suggesting this week.
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: And then in terms of what the PGA Championship effect was,
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: the main difference in the setup of the golf course
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: was that the rough was higher. Michael Kim has already
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: come on Twitter and said that we're we don't have
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: the PGA Championship rough, we have the usual quail holla roff.
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: The main effect of that was just that everything became
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: a little bit less predictive. There was a little bit
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: more randomness because you add in, you know, the randomness
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: of okay, well, what happens if you end up in
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: the rough. Whereas as I kind of just talked about like,
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: it's not so much about whether you hit the fairway,
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: it's whether you're driving it into the right spot. So
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: whether you're missing the deep bunker and putting yourself in
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: the corrects on the correct side in the rough harmless,
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: we still have a good shot at the green things
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: of that nature. So I expect coming back to the
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: non pg Championship setup that we're going to see the
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: boosted predictive value kind of across the board everywhere, and
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: so this once again I think is just going to
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: be of course that really really separates highly skilled players
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: from lower skilled players, and most of that is coming
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: from driving skill.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't say better than that. That's why I
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: love that You'll getting you to go through it.
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: But I think that explains a ton and will help
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: a lot when we get to sort of leveraging the
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: Chalk build in ways you can do it. Obviously, the
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: chalk build is going to feature a lot of that conversation,
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: but I think that's important. I did know before the
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: show we talked a little bit offline just about the weather,
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: and I do want to talk that because so it's
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: coming up a lot.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: You know, it was brought up earlier, like with.
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: Rain coming in and all these different things. So weather
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: for this week and then relate it to the field
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: and the no cut and the tea times and all
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: that stuff.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: We talked a little bit about that.
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: I'll let you go through it again then I'll chime
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: in anything that I can on top. But I think
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: that's best for you to go through as well.
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: Yeah, the first part I'll say here is it's a
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: shame that we're about to get a ton of rain.
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: It's going to rain tonight into the morning, and then
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: probably a little bit more Thursday evening. So the golf
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: course is going to soften up quite a bit, but
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: it's at least starting from a very firm point where
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: Michael Kim like he used firm in all caps to
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: talk about the golf course right now. So it's a
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: bummer that we don't get to see those conditions. I
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: really wish, as I think you all know by now,
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: I wish we saw firm conditions significantly more often than
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: we do on the PGA Tour. It's it's just like
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: it's by far the best way to test these these players.
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: I think we're going to see some some breezy conditions
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: on the weekend, but for the first two days I
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: don't see a ton But as you alluded to, like,
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: what I do see is there are there isn't like
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: the natural progression that we typically see in a weather
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: forecast where oh it starts, you know, somewhat calm, and
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: gradually the wind gets stronger and stronger as the day
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: goes on. We kind of have these pockets where Okay,
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: the wind's gonna spike for an hour, maybe as you know,
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: there's a storm an hour away that's not gonna hit
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: the course or something like that, and so we're gonna
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: get instances where it's raining really hard and it's difficult
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: for twenty minutes and then it's gonna lighten up again.
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: And so it's very reminiscent of the way that I
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: approach Open Championship, whether like wavestacking, where I'm not separating
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: from an early and late standpoint. I'm looking literally for
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: just pockets of tea times I'm gonna have all six
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: guys from you know, these four groups or something, and
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: that's probably something I'll do more in Showdown than on
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: main Slate. On main Slate out, I probably won't think
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: too much of weather this week. But maybe it's just
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: because I'm so excited to get to you know, major
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: championship season again and eventually the Open Championship. But that's
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: what I think of when I look at this weather
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: forecast for the week, is like, Okay, there's at least
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: a chance that if you go all in on a
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: pocket that you're gonna get like the best scoring conditions
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: for all of those guys, and it's going to be
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: you know, maybe a full stroke card or for everybody
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: outside of that pocket, and you just kind of strike
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: gold with that. This week, again more likely to come
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: to fruition in Showdown than on main slate, but still
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: worth a shot.
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: We got Twosome's as well here, So a little bit
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: of back and forth action. I know you've been following
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: along with that stuff. What would you say then for
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: this week, like just the way it shapes up when
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: somebody sees like you mentioned the rain that's coming in
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: a little bit colder temps on Thursday morning with a
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: little bit of rain that it kind of opens up
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: in the afternoon it gets warmer. There's not much wind
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: currently on Friday, it looks like just a little bit
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: of wind gusts in the very early morning. Are you
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: thinking something that would more be involved, like mid day
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: to late day on Thursday, that would kind of be
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: anywhere after eleven am and beyond on Friday, as long
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: as it kind of fit within that sort of window
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: you'd feel if not saying you're going for that, but
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: if you were looking at it from just that perspective,
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: that's kind of how you think about the pockets versus
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: early late late early, you.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: Know, the way the field is so small, et cetera.
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: Well, listen, I'm not a weather man, so I I
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: you know, I don't want to I don't want to
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: speak as if I'm like this super knowledgeable about weather
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: kind of guy. But one thing that I have kind
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: of noticed this season, and and you know, a lot
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: of us now are kind of using AI more and more.
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: And one of the ways that I've used AI is
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: to try and understand weather a little bit better. And
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: so I think one of like the the breakthroughs that
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: I had this year is caring a little bit less
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: about what specifically the forecast is saying and kind of
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: understanding a little bit more of why it's saying this. So,
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: for example, as we look at the forecast for tomorrow
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: for Thursday, we see a lot of like no matter
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: what model you're using on windy dot com, if you're
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: using the ECMWF, if you're using NOM or you know
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: the big ice here for at hr R or the
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: new hr DPS, what most of them are showing is
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: you get pockets with rain and wind, and then as
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: soon as the rain clears, the wind clears, so you
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: get you know, what that's basically saying is, Okay, you're
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: gonna get these pockets of storms or rain rolling through,
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: and when they leave, everything gets calmer. And so yeah,
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: if you know, like the the nom model right now,
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: for example, is saying that it's going to be rainy
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: and a little bit windy from seven am to noon
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: and then no wind and super calm or no rain
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: and super calm conditions from one o'clock to six o'clock.
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: If that's right, and you take guys who start late,
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: you might get like that perfect pocket of scoring from
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: one to six o'clock, and everyone before that is going
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: to be in trouble. And the latest tea times are
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: going to run into much cooler temperatures, breezy, and more
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: rain at seven and eight o'clock. So again, that pocket
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: might be there.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: As you go from one model to the next, the
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: pockets change, the story changes a little bit, and so
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: for me, like again, it's it's much less looking at
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: the forecast and saying, Okay, I think one o'clock to
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: six o'clock is going to be perfect, and it's more
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: just about the understanding that, okay, there is a chance
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: that any pocket here as soon as the storm rolls
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: through that there's going to be like this big giant
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: window of perfect scoring. And I'm just gonna build in
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: hoops that I find that pocket. And one way you
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: can do that instead of, you know, obsessing over the
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: actual forecasts, is you can go look at make a
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: list of like, Okay, these are my twenty favorite plays
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: this week. These are my five favorite spin ups, These
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: are my ten favorite mid tier guys, these are my
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: ten favorite values, and just see, can I build a
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: lineup from my favorite plays where everyone when is teeing
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: off within the same forty five minute window or something
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: like that, and if so, play those guys and hope
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: that you strike gold from a tea time standpoint.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that.
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: And it's also the same reason why like something like
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: this from our guy Aaron, who's always a super active
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: here is like horrible disagree on the on the latter
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: part of this, because like just forcing two under ten,
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: I've won so much money play and tickets and everything.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: I've talked about this a bunch playing.
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: Six guys in a pocket for example, or a certain
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: wave advent or whatever, they're all twelve percent. I don't
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: have any guys under ten percent at all, and you're like, oh,
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: you don't have any separation.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: My separation is exactly what you just talked about.
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: It.
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: I got six guys that are all popular in a
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: pocket that should maybe be popular, but people aren't talking
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: about this, and it doesn't include all these other popular
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: people that everyone's all. I don't even have any of
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: the top eight owned guys, but I didn't force two
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: guys under ten percent. And so obviously product ownership important,
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: bigger tournaments, larger fields, et cetera.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: But like I said, I've.
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: Won big field tournaments, you know, five fifty fives things
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: like that, where it's like you have six guys they're
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: all ten to fifteen percent own. You just didn't play
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: all the top guys, and you played from a different
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: angle or perspective than others were using.
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: I can't honestly, I can't remember if this was on
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: the show last week or if it was in my
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: discord last week, but I remember having this exact conversation
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: very recently, where separation is this sliding scale of low
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: ownership and how much you can actually separate from like
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: a scoring standpoint, And so when you talk about like
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: that pocket being a separator. The reason is because when
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: you have like that much correlation in your favor, there's
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: a chance that you're you separate just so much from
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: a scoring perspective that you leave everybody else in the dust.
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: And the only lineups that can possibly compete with you
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: are the lineups that have three guys the exact same,
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: four guys the exact same are the people who took
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: the exact same strategy as you. And that's just going
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: to be such a lowly low proportion of the field.
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: So even if all of your guys are fifteen to
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: twenty percent, the vast majority of lineups that are using
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: those guys are also using two, three, four guys outside
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: of that pocket. And so if that pocket really does
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: have the advantage that you're hoping for, you're gonna separate
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: from those lineups anyway, and it won't always work.
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: That's another thing.
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: But I love this call from our guys scar a
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: million dollar winter on the pgad of vestuets, but says
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: also knowing forecasts for tough hoole arrival. Some people don't
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: consider this like, Okay, I'm on the right wave of
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: them on the thing. But it's like you kind of
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: want to be in that pocket that doesn't get to
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: the bear trap at that time, and it just will
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: it will it guarantee it. No, But it's just being
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: cognizant of those things that's different levels to it of
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: kind of trying to figure that stuff out. All right,
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: let's go to the common build for this week. And
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: I'm man, I never made one so quickly, but give
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: me your take on this. It's very clearly to me, Xander,
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: Cam up top, like they just fit easily.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: I think I've real.
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: Quick before before we even go anywhere else, let's just
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: talk about why that is for a second, because I
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: think the field is going to identify three guys as
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: being head and shoulders above the rest, Rory, Cam, Xander.
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: If you use Rory, it's gonna be really hard to
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: use two of the three. If you use Cam and Xander,
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: it's really easy to build a lineup with two of
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: those three. So I'm in complete agreement. We're going to
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: start or we're going to see Camon x Anders start
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: because that allows people to get two of the three
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: guys that they see as headed shoulders above the rest.
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I will say this, I don't usually go
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: this route with it, but it's it's again, it's very
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: obvious when you get those guys get four averaged around
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: seventy five.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Hundred, give or take.
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: But for whatever reason, I think I know obviously from
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: last week and et cetera in sixty nine.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: But Ratan, how do you say his name? Riton Ratan?
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: I think it's Rayton. But the reason why we don't
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: know is because every single time he shows up on
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: the broadcast, the broadcasters are using a different pronunciation.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Ludvig.
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: I've seen Rayton. I've seen writing like, guys, you should
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: know and then we will know because you guys are
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: saying the same name every single time he's on the TV.
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: That's my takeaway for sure, because remember even Ludwig first
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: came out again, Ludwig made bigger waves, so eventually they
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: had to just ask his ass and be like, listen,
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: what's your pronunciations so we can get this right? Well,
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: it's this, But he even said like, well it's this,
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: but I'm fine if you say.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: This, like okay, come on.
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: But anyway, either way, he's right and out quite well
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: for people at sixty nine hundred, so he's getting put
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: into a lot of lamps. And what's funny is if
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: I just do that just for this experiment, it's Kittyama,
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: JT and Woodland, or it's Kittyama with Hoguard and Keegan,
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: and it's probably that one, to be honest, but I'm
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: just showing you the two, and honestly, I get like
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: why people are on this route. But if I go
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: the Keegan one and the Hoguard, it just it has
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: such a high projection.
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: It's got everybody over ten percent even even rate.
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: And if that's what he ends up coming in, especially
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: a higher stakes, he might come in at like seven
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: to ten or six to ten in the twenty five dollars.
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: I get that, and that's usually what we're talking about.
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: But just want to bring it up so that we
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: separate here and be able to explain it to you.
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: But I don't think this is like a well, but
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: there might be this, or yes, there's always that, But
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: to me, this is like very clear cut that one
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: of those two lineups are very similar, if not exact,
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: are pretty much the most popular type of build.
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and you and Pat talked about this last week,
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: and I think it's always worth repeating, Like a lot
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: of the time when we talk about finding a way
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: to differentiate off the chalk build, we're not saying find
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: a way to differentiate so that you don't end up duped, right, Like,
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: the value in differentiating is so far beyond simply not
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: getting duped. But I use that qualifier because I want
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: to talk for a moment about like, what we see
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: in the most duplicated lineups from week to week is
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: not all chalk. It's everybody taking, you know, like the
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: common build and then making one or two pivots that
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: they think is going to make them more unique. But
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: everyone's making those same pivots. So I agree with everything
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: you just said. But then I also think that the
• 45:45
  Speaker 4: common build is often going to include Aksha as a
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: pivot off any of those guys, Smallly as a pivot
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: off any of those guys, Stevens, Homa Goodi, Alex Fitzpatrick,
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: yellamraju Rio Hasatsune as a pivot off of any of
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: the those guys. And so if you're building and you think, Okay,
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: this is the chalk build, but I'm gonna be unique
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: and I'm gonna make it good enough because I'm going
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: to you know, Smally and Yellow Miraju instead of uh,
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: you know, writing and JT that that's not separating you
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: enough that you know you're you're still very much within
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: the Chalk Builds. You've got to do more than that.
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: But yeah, other than that, Like, I completely agree with
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: everything you said, and I even agree with like the
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: order in which that you you talked about things. And
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: one of the other points here is when you look
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: at the chalk like the players that people really want
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: to play this week, Kiddyama, Hoyguard, but Tia, Thomas, Woodland, right,
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: and Kegan, Like, notice that all these guys are right
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: around the price that you're literally left with if you
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: start with Xander and Cam. So these are also the
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: guys that people immediately are gonna scroll down to once
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: they've picked those first two guys. So yeah, it's it's
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: just like, as you said, it's extremely straightforward this week
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: what the Chalk Builds gonna look like, and that makes
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: it pretty easy to identify, you know, good ways to
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: vary from it.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: And I think that's important that you said that.
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: I do want to add a couple of things, ties
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: to what we talked about earlier, ties to what you
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: just said it's all together.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: It's a good example.
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: Be Skyler skyhok dfs Skyler hok whu over at etr
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: he posts the ownership every week on exit. A wonderful dude.
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: You know, if you ever get the chance, talk to him.
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: He's one of the nicest people around. But just posting
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: it out. He doesn't post like, here's the chalk. It's
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: not about just the chalk lineup. There is going to
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: be an order of this is the chokiest or the
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: most duplicated down to that. But what you see as
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: a theme in the construction, and you said it yourself
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: there too. Look, even if you go to Rory Rory,
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: you're not gonna get very easily a Xander or Young lineup.
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: That would actually be unique to go that route. That'd
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: be a way to leverage the chalk builds with a Rory.
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: But just noting it Rory leaves you seventy seven hundred
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: who fits in that Hogard kiddiyama. Then you got to
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: drop down to your batiyas, to your jt'st here whatever fits.
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: So it's the chalk construction is different than the most
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: duplicated build. We're just giving you the idea. The chalk
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: construction is what you should be taking away though. What
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: is common in all those lineups we talked about. Three
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: plus seven K guys is very common, including two or
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: more in the upper seven K range in builds that
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: don't go that route. Two of the upper six k
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: guys is common.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: Not many will have three.
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: And what does that look like for you and how
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: you feel about it? So there is other ways to
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: get different and still be different within that.
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: And that's what I was gonna add.
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: I had one from a way back. I don't even
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: know if I've used it publicly, but correlated contrarian constructions
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: triple C is kind of what we talked about what
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: just previous when you were saying, if you found a pocket,
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: who gives a shit? If the six guys are all
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: eleven percent on, it's a it's a correlated contrarian construction.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: The construction matters. It is correlated, and it's it's core.
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: It's contrariant to what the rest of the field is
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: doing because it's not landing in the exact same build.
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: When you already have different guys, like you said, different
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: levers you can pull to find separation that would specifically
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: be one where maybe, like I said, maybe you don't
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: have any of the top eight guys, maybe it doubles
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: down and not only do you not have any of
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: the top eight guys, but you don't have any like
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: you don't have Rory Xander or Cam Young and you're
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: just willing to go against that. So it's like, I'm
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: not even playing anybody ten K or above. So you
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: get a separate construction, leaving guys off different different levers
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: that you're pulling within your separation. So I think we
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: have what people need to see is like, even though
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: that's the build we think is the most duplicated, it's
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: more about the chalk construction, and it's gonna be three
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: or more of those seven K guys, specifically two or
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: more of the upper seven. So when your builds get
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: different that way, two nines, two eights, skip the sevens.
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: Rory too low eights and you know you're two high eights.
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: So whatever you can get, what can you get do
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: with Rory And let's just use Adam Scott and Decky Well,
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: now you're in a low six with low sevens. You're
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: you're not in the same construction, You're not in the
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: same ranges. So things like that are where you can
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: still find really good options that people are talking about
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: that are going to get you know, seven to ten
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: percent own. They're just not getting full on chalk because
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: they don't fit all of those constructions. To Alex's point,
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: they they don't all fit those Therefore they only can
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: get seven to twelve as opposed to twelve plus. And
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: that's where you can start to put things together differently.
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: And it's not just make sure this play is under five.
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: Make sure this play is under ten. Now I've got
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: the magic formula. That's just unfortunately not how this works.
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: That may be the end result in many cases, but
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: that's why we talk about it from that perspective. So
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: with that said, I think the Rory version is basically
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: the same. It's Rory with the five of those guys
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: in the upper sevens. What are some ways to leverage
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: the chalk build that you're looking at this week, just
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: from some of this conversation we've had already.
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the easiest is to build a lineup
• 50:43
  Speaker 4: that avoids like the the seven K range just point
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: blank period. And I think that's kind of naturally going
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: to take you off of the top three guys, So
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: you can almost view it that way as well. Like
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: you one way is to just avoid Rory cams Ander.
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: Most lineups are gonna have at least one of those guys.
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: So if you started, like let's say, you know, Oberg Seawou,
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: Bobby mac or any any three guys in that range,
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: like that's number one, gonna be very different. But I
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: think it's better classified as just avoiding the seven K
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: range because I mean, how many names did we did
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: we list off earlier when we were talking about the
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: chalk build from this range and outside of this range,
• 51:26
  Speaker 4: Like if you go to the eight ks, a lot
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: of quality, quality players here from you know, Adam Scott, Hideki,
• 51:34
  Speaker 4: Ben Griffin, got her Up, McNeely, Holin, min Wou, Harris English, Sepstraca,
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: Jordan Speith. You can even go to Spawning Day since
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: it's it's almost like seventy eight hundred is where you know,
• 51:44
  Speaker 4: the start of all the chalk gets. So so yeah,
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: I think any bill where maybe you have to go
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: like one time to the low sixes or the mid
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: sixes or something like that and then live in the
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: eight K range like that to me is really smart
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: because you take any three players from the the eight
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: range and the seven K range, Like let's say min Wu, Sepstraka,
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: Jordan Spieth. Are those guys less likely to succeed and
• 52:07
  Speaker 4: do really well this week than Kiddiyama, Nikolai Hoygard and
• 52:11
  Speaker 4: Justin Thomas. Absolutely not. But ownership is going to tell
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: that story and it's just not the case. So, yes,
• 52:17
  Speaker 4: they're more expensive, Yes, therefore they are supposed to be
• 52:20
  Speaker 4: more likely to succeed, but ownership's not telling that story.
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: Ownership is saying that that extra like three hundred dollars
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: per player that you save is like the obvious decision,
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: and I just don't think that it is.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: I think another thing that's important to remember is to
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: think about a couple different concepts before you go in,
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: Like I was talking about this, like say look at
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: what you're doing and then build out. If you if
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: you say to yourself, look, I don't care what Alex says,
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: I don't care what Tambo says. By the way, you
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: should do that, like just we're here to help, but
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: you don't even to listen to our picks. That's not
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: what we're doing here. We're talking about the game and
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: the concepts and the how. And I think like, if
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: you're like, I don't care what anybody says, one of
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: Rory Xander or Camyong is going in my lineup because
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: I just they're gonna be needed.
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: That's bottom line facts.
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: Great, Well, then you gotta know that that's your build,
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: and like you don't have to start there because that
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: forces you to pick one before you need to. You
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: could so you can get the idea of the build
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: when you're building it down or looking at your builds.
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: But I'm saying like from a single ntry perspective we're
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: talking about here, it's like the concept of that is like, Okay,
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: now what can I do to get different?
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: Who do I like? What would that look like? Et cetera,
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: et cetera.
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: But I don't like Mayo walked into this one yesterday,
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: didn't even mean to, but we built a bunch of
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: lineups Alex where he was like, look, I like my
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: guy Michael Kim.
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: It doesn't matter the play, it's more the concept.
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: And I like Pendrith, Well, when you bottom up build,
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: it's like you now have an average of nine point
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: three K and you've got two points.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: You've got two guys in there, in the sixes. That
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: doesn't even matter.
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: They're both probably lower than five percent, But even if
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: they got steam, it's just already a different construction. So
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: you could say, I'm one of those guys that needs
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: somebody up top, and I don't care what anyone says.
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep riding the cam Young train. All right.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: Now you have nine k left. There's like no world
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: you need to go into the sevens now.
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: But it's because you decided that you still got best
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: of both worlds. But if you don't love that, you
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: said this a ton, here's another backwards build. You say
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: to yourself, you know what I know that Day seems
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: like a kiddiam a pivot, But Day is gonna be
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: my last guy into my lineup.
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: And now I like.
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: Spawn, I like Speeth, and I like I don't even
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: chalk min woo.
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: It doesn't even matter. At that point. You now have
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: nine k remaining.
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: If you decide that the birthday boy Ben Griffin is
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: your guy and you want to play him and that
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: lands you on can't lay, then you can play it.
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: And it's just saying who's gonna come through that's gonna
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: beat those guys at the top. But it's a completely
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: different construction. But if you say, ah, I don't see
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: that being the way you can look at this. I'm
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: just doing an example of how somebody might do this.
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: But I'll tell you what though, I don't even I
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: think you know this guy. I think Matt Fitzpatrick is
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: being disrespected here. He's done better. What has Xander done
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: lately that Matt Fitzpatrick has it? And he's cheaper than
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: him and way lower own. So I definitely I'm not
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: gonna play Cam Young and I'm not gonna play Rory
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: and I'm not gonna play but it's because I'm gonna
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: play the guy that's one two plus three with a
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: team event times in the past, what four events or whatever.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: So oh, now that leaves me eight K. I mean
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit.
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: Let's say min Wu is Straka and it leaves you
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: Harris English money. My point being, you now have a
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: nine K with three eight k's and two upper sevens,
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: and you're not just pivoting off of whatever and whatever
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: down there. You don't even you have your last guy
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: in as Day or spawn however you want to look
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: at it, at seventy nine, but you have already validated
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: also that Fitzpatrick is your dude up top, and then
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: make whatever works in between. Honestly, if you said, in
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: this lineup, I still like Cam Young, I'm gonna keep
• 55:39
  Speaker 3: riding that train. And I don't like Harris English. He
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: doesn't fit this at all. I just want to play
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: Hoguard no matter what anybody says. It's not really that bad.
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: You're leaving two hundred bucks on the table. Hogard is
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: your last guy in. He's the third guy in to
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: those Cam Xander lineups we talked about earlier. So in
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: most Cam Young lineups he is the third guy or
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: fourth if you want pair him with Kidiyama in. In
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: this case, he is your last guy in. And while
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: you still have Cam Young with him, not many others
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: will have Straka, Spieth, Spawn and Day. And I'm not
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: saying to play this. I'm just giving an example again
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: of like how to do it without being completely stupid.
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: It's like mixing all the thoughts that we put together here.
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: Do you have anything else on that or any other
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: styles of builds that you would see that you'd want
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: to discuss or ways you could attack it this week?
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: No, I think you said that well, I really liked
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: the idea of like making Day the cheapest guy that
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: you use in the lineup. That was something I did
• 56:36
  Speaker 4: at the Masters that worked really well, and I think
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: it sets up to do that sort of thing again,
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: where like you build your entire lineup in the eight
• 56:42
  Speaker 4: K range. Like, I think that's super super viable. This week,
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: we also we mentioned earlier like building in pockets. So
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: I know people like when we give specific names, Well,
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: how about this one. Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood and Seawoo Kim all
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: tee off within ten minutes of each other, So that
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: might be the docket that you go to and and
• 57:01
  Speaker 4: kind of build around that kind of start. And that's
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: obviously like a super super contrarian beginning. The other point
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: I want to make here is we've rattled off like
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: a number of things that you can kind of use
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: as a centerpiece for your lineup using all eight ks,
• 57:15
  Speaker 4: using this nine K build. You mentioned like that people
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: should listen to some of the things we say and
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: just totally choose to ignore others. One of my one
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: of my favorite subscribers in my in my discord guy
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: by the name of cat Guy. Everybody loves him. He's
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: an incredibly sharp DFS player, and he had a takedown
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: just like a month ago in a in a Round
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: four showdown where I pointed, I can't remember what event
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: it was, might have been the Heritage where I noticed, hey,
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: there's a north wind coming for the first time this
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: week on Sunday. It's not coming until you know, mid afternoon.
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: So there's advantage to going like to really early players
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: and just stacking there. And so my my actual write
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: up was like, I want a mix of super early
• 57:56
  Speaker 4: guys and guys in contention, and cat Guy said, screw you,
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: I'm not listening to the latter part. I'm just going
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: all in on early guys. They all did well. He
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: gets a take down and didn't play anyone in your contention.
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: And so, yeah, picking and choosing the things that you
• 58:10
  Speaker 4: listen to from us is absolutely a sharp way to
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: go about things, where you just you're listening to the
• 58:15
  Speaker 4: whole show, but you're listening to the show hoping that
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: you hear one or two things that you absolutely latch
• 58:21
  Speaker 4: onto and you say, yeah, that's a really really great
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: way to like center my strategy this week, and I'm
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: just gonna ignore everything else that these knuckleheads say that's
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: a perfectly viable way to go, and it's led to
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: a lot of success from people.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: I agree one hundred percent.
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: Make sure to tag us on X when that happens
• 58:37
  Speaker 3: for you, because it be good or bad or the ugly,
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: we love it. It's like, hey, I didn't listen to
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: and this happened, or hey I listened to this part
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: and it turned into this line and then ended up winning.
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: Because I know Pat and I have had a ton
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: of weeks over the years where someone's like, you two
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: are battling about whether to play this guy or this guy,
• 58:50
  Speaker 3: and I was like, well, shit, maybe I'll just play
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: them both. And they end up doing well and they're like,
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: here's my twenty grand I won this week, and I'm like, man, congrats,
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: how did I not end up on that.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: It's like all of this we talked about, and then the.
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: Argument we were having over a pivot or something, it's like, actually,
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: the answer was just to play both, and they figured
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: it out and rattled that off and built out a
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: twenty K winning lineup for like one hundred bucks in
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: and twenty k out, and you're like, oh man, that's amazing.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: So we would love to see stuff like that.
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: But I do just think you know you're prior to
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: your other point there of like Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood and kim Man.
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: You're not telling me there there can't be a leaderboard
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: on Sunday that features those three and then that still
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: fits you. Like a mid range seven K guy and
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: a couple six K guys. How many people are playing
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: a three nine K guy a couple six K guys
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: and still not having that upper seven K range with
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: all the chalk Almost nobody right and it's a no
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: cut event, like these guys could all come through one
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: guy down there at sixty eight hundred that actually in
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: the same time slot as those guys. Funny enough, I
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: mentioned this yesterday, somebody else talked about it today. But
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: Alex Fitzpatrick, remember the guy that just got dragged to
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: the finish line by his brother but then whipped everyone's
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: bass last week? It's like, oh, yeah, he's actually really good.
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: Remember when he won the Indian Open that had some
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: of these superstars in it and he goes on and
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: win that event on his own. It's like they still
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: had to put up thirty or thirty one under or
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: whatever it was for him and Matt to win. It's like, yeah,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: you could say what you want about getting a full
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: card and how that system works, and you know, anyone
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: could bring anyone to the team event and let them
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: ride their coat tails if they get in.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: Sure, but it's their brothers.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 3: It was like to be fully expected, and then on
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: top of it, they're both playing the best golf of
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: their life right now. Probably it's like, sure, that kind
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: of makes sense and it adds up, and that's what happens.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: You get yourself a ticket to the big show, just
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: in a different way than he was probably on pace.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: To do so anyway.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: So for me, I'm fine with that. But I think
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: that's kind of interesting when you look at that stuff.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: Anything else you want to talk about from the perspective
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: of leveraging the chalk build, whether it's for this field,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: future fields, no cuts, anything else you want to mention
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: here that you're that you're thinking about it.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 4: No, I think we covered it all. I did, like
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: the the like the Pet Mayo build that you kind
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: of mentioned where he almost picked his favorite six K guy,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 4: where I think that's that's a smart way to approach
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: this week, where it's not that you go pick your
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: favorite six K guy. It's like the very first question
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 4: that you might want to ask yourself is do I
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 4: have conviction on any six K guy? And you run
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: through them? And if you don't, okay, then I'm gonna
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: land on a balance build so that I avoid the
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: seven K range. And if you do, now you know, okay,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: this is my key piece. This is how I'm skipping
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 4: the seven K range because instead of going seven K
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 4: seven K, I've got this six K guy and then
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: an eight K guy. So yeah, I think that's that's
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 4: a fun way to kind of start your analysis this week.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 4: Is how do I feel about all of the players
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 4: in the six K range? Is there anyone that I
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 4: can sell myself on as being a smart play?
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: Agreed, And especially for people who are playing less lineups
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: right or a single injury like you talk about all
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: the time. It's kind of like that's gotta be if
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: you really have a six K guy that you're fired
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: up about, you are going to take that six K
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: guy and look at dozens of opportunity like what does
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: this actually create for me? And then what does it
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: fit with everything else that I like that's going to
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: help you? And I'm speaking for you it may not
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: be true, but I'm saying in this example, it makes
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: sense like I have this, Now what does that mean
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: for me? Because that one play doesn't really do anything?
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: It's what does it do for me? And then you're saying, okay,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 3: well it does build out like these ten different variations
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: that I'm comfortable with. But to be honest, what I'm
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: seeing this week, the way the slate's coming to me,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: it only really fits these two builds. And you know
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: what I decided is this one is still landing in
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: that range like this, this one goes completely. I get
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 3: like so many levels to it that I feel best
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: about this. That's having a real process, whether it works
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: or doesn't, or you say your classic one.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: I talked about it again yesterday and gave you.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: Prop swords that you say, look, man, these three all
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: fit it. I'm not messing around here. Why would I
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: force myself to miss out. I can easily just play
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 3: a three max like a single entry and run all
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: these builds.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna do that, and that's my variation. So
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: I love it.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: Man, Always good chatting through the stuff with you. I
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: liked a piano what is it?
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: Piano?
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 4: Man?
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: DM said you knuckleheads are always are telling us to
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: actually have a strategy worth the price of admission.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: We appreciate it.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: I know a lot of the feedback during the NFL
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: season when we first this show was like why is
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: this free?
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: It just is like, this is what we do. We
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: have a ton of stuff. You like our free stuff.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: I guarantee you love the stuff we do behind our
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: paywalls if you will going over to Shipping Nation FTN.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: And of course if you're not in Alex's Discord, I
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: think you're really missing out. There's a ton of cool
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: stuff going on there. I'm way more of a lurkers.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: It's his zone, it's his stuff. But I mean, I'll
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: chat with cat Guy, I'll chat with the Todd Father
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: and whoever as I do around there.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: A little bit.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: But by the way, I think the Todd Father is
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: in Myrtle Beach this week playing, So if you want
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: to get some Myrtle Action, Myrtle Classic or whatever it is,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: you can get into that one. But I think if
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: you're not a Alex's Discord, you're missing out. It's definitely
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 3: a spot to be. What's the best way to get
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: in there?
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: Right now? Do you still have any promos or anything
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: you left on since the Masters.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I have the permanent promo leverage ten percent off forever.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 4: So you know, if you're a monthly subscriber, you're gonna
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: get ten percent off this month and next month and
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: the one after. So promo code leverage is the best way.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, shout out the Brandon says, my favorite show. Much
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: love guys. Yeah, appreciate it.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: If you guys you know, do like it, make sure
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: to give us that thumbs up, make sure to recommend
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: it to others. Shared around as we put out on
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: our socials. Things like that how we grow the show
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: and that's what makes it easy for us to come back.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 3: We're gonna do it anyway because we love talking and
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: just we could do it for hours. But I think
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: at the end of the day, it's just part of
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: people recognizing how that creator economy works.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: And the idea is you help spread the word. We
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: keep it rolling for you.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: This exists year round. We've got you know, NFL, but
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: we got a tell more golf to get too, well
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: before we ever get to NFL. So let's talk about
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 3: the one and Done segment for a second. You know,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 3: last week I forget who we ended up settling on.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 3: Was it Henley or was it Fleetwood?
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 4: I think it was Fleetwood.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: I think it was Fleetwood we decided on.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: You know, he's an interesting character for this week as well.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: I know you brought him up earlier with that stuff.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 3: He actually didn't have as bad of a week stats
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: wise as.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: People would think.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: It just looks bad on paper because of the result
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: and the number on the paper, and it's all he's
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 3: no good now and he's.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: Sandwiched around these guys.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: But I actually think he's kind of interesting from a
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: a quote unquote plays perspective this week, and you can
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: fit some of the other stuff you mentioned. I agree
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: there as well. But who what are you think of
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 3: for this week? And thoughts on one and done into
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: the truest here?
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 4: Well, here's my main thought. We are deep into the season.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 4: Our joint entry in the Pat Meo Open has two
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 4: point two million dollars cumulative. So my first point is
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 4: everyone should really care who we pick for leverage lane
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: so that you don't play this guy in your lineups,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 4: and we should pick whatever chuck we want to fail
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: on mainslate because if we take him from one and
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: done he will fail. So maybe that's the strategy that
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 4: we should.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: Use from now on for one and done, MAO did
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: just post it out though, there's a guy that just
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: went back to back and I'll two fold this because
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: I know some people are also.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: In Rick's Splash one.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: So the segment for Splash right now is a crazy
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: setup because it was RBC Heritage Cadillac Truest PGA.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: So it was like I did this. It didn't work out,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: by the way, but it was like I played.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: I played Can't Lay and Scottie back to back because
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: Can't like got a pretty good result and Skuy But
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: what I didn't see and now I'm kind of dead
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 3: to this. My plan was to play like the four
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: guys like get like cam Young, get Rory, get Scotty,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: and get that try and win a segment or win
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: some money. But because we had Fits and cam Young
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: win back to back weeks, there is a dozen or
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: more people that got back to back winners, like I
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: think there's actually twenty plus, so that matters for the
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: segment stuff. But just noting it is now like of
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: the thought processes, like what we're doing, it's who do
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: you want to pick for the Mayo version because Mayo
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: posted this out. Somebody who did that in the Mayo
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: won and done the same combo back to back. They're like,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: holy shit, I was dead two weeks ago and now
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 3: I've got you know, seventy five. I've got eighty percent
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: of my money in just two weeks and we still
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: have a signature and a major back to back. We
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: could really get back into the swing of things if
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: we get there this weekend next Easier said than done,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: of course, But what are the guys that come to
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: buy based on all that stuff we just went through.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 4: Well, okay, here's like the actual strategy that I think
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 4: is worth talking about for one and done this week,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 4: which is we know that they're going to be three
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: very popular plays Rory, Cam, Young Zander. These are gonna
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 4: be the three most popular. Two of these guys already
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 4: have big wins this year, one of which Cam has
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 4: two big wins. So when you think about, okay, who
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 4: are the guys above me, there are a lot of
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: people who no longer have Rory or came Youong available.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 4: So even though these guys are going to be popular,
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 4: if you get a Rory win, or especially if you
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 4: get a Cam Young win, you're gaining on so many
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 4: of the people who are already well above you because
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 4: they already got that win from him. So I don't
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 4: care that they're popular this week. The golf course fits
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: them so well. I think Rory and Cam Young are
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 4: very clearly the number one and number two options this
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 4: week if you still have them available, and so I
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: don't have a preference between the two. If you do,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: then I think that's the guy we go with.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I was just going to say that that's great
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: you said that, because I literally just had this sort.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: Of back and forth in my own mind this morning
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: as I was looking at my stuff.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 3: I have both of those guys, and I'm just debating.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: I don't think I'm saving either of them for anything.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 3: I feel like they're both fine to use right now
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 3: because back to back weeks, I'm even good with it.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 3: Do you have a thought around like I think probably
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: Ror again, Camyon's so on fire right now.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: But I still love this course for Rory.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: I'm thinking like Rory than Cam, but it's completely biased
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: just to say, like, you know whatever, let's do it
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: that way. Do you do you actually have a thought
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 3: on course fit versus this weekend next and obviously next
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: week's course. You know, those who know, like yourself, know
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 3: quite a bit about it. So it's like, what do
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 3: you think about that.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 4: They're such similar players that I don't have a course
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: fit lean to either of them. I what I have
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 4: a lean towards is Cam, because if one of these
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 4: two guys is not playing at this level two months
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 4: from now, a month from now, it's more likely to
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: be Cam that fell off a little bit, because Rory
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 4: has sustained this level of play for like fifteen years now,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: it seems, whereas Cam has sustained this level of play
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: since you know, last June. So yeah, we again, if
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 4: one of these guys is likely or if one of
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 4: these guys isn't playing quite as well a month from now,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 4: it's just more likely to be Cam. So I'd rather
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 4: play him while his putters this hot, while the while
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 4: the approach play is the best it's ever been in
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: his career, and either of those things could really fall
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 4: off within the next month, and I'm confident that Roy's
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: still going to be Rory at that point.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: All right, then you solved it.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: I was just looking at what I did, but I
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: was gonna say that also answers our question. And I'm
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 3: sure we'll get to it in our lanes, and I'll
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: actually start the lane because it will be a segue
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 3: for me. But I would play CAM because that's the
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: chalk in DFS that I don't know what you're doing.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: But we'll see how that goes.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 3: It's not like I'm full fading the guy, but my
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: leverage lane will come up in a bit and it's
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 3: gonna be something around that.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: So just noticing it.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: Let's take uh, let's say Cam and want and done
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 3: love it. And I think this week you had some
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: some bets. I don't know if you want to you'll
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: give them both. I know you tagged him up in
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: the discord. I tailed when you're saying it like that
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 3: and the way you phrased it of like unfortunately or
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 3: like basically sad to say, but this is what I'm doing.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: I just had to laugh and I was like, okay,
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 3: I've got to do this too then, But I do
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: kind of have a thought about.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: This guy this week.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 3: I'm not sure if you want to give it out,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 3: but there's definitely one that I was like, oh man,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 3: this could be the time I like it here.
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 4: Yeah, let me let me go to fund the exact
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 4: wording that I used.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: It was good.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 4: I'm deeply ashamed about the second one. But two outrights
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 4: this week, and the one that I'm ashamed about is
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: Jordan Speed seventy five to one bet three sixty five
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 4: with the one fifth each way for three spots. And
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: the argument's really straightforward. So actually, you know what, let
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 4: me You want me to share my screen on this
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: one because I think this is kind of visual for people. Yeah,
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 4: so yeah, share screen, share screen and Jordan Speed stats. Okay,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: can you see this?
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: Yep? Got it all right.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 4: So the thing that I like about him is when
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 4: you take a look at the total strokes gained, you
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 4: don't see any huge spikes, right, Like, the best we've
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 4: seen from him is plus two and a half at
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: the Masters. Plus two and a half strokes gained. P
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 4: around is not going to win any golf tournament, especially
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 4: an elevated event. But this isn't the full picture of volatility.
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 4: Volatility is made up of the volatility of the individual
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 4: skill sets, and if you look at age skill set,
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: we've seen massive putting spikes at the Heritage, the Genesis
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 4: at pebble. We've seen the around the greenplay as good
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 4: as it's ever been at the Masters, at the Players.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 4: We've seen the approach spikes the Masters, the valspar the Players,
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 4: and we've seen some really strong off the tee play
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 4: as well. So if you look at all these weeks,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 4: like he had two of the four spike at the Masters,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 4: he had two of the four spike at the Players,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: he had two of the four spike at Genesis. If
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 4: he gets a week where three of the four spike,
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 4: let alone all four, he's going to be in contention.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 4: We just haven't seen that combination. Part of that might
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 4: be mental with speed that maybe when you know, when
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: the putter's on he psykes himself out and the ball
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 4: striking goes, or maybe when the ball strikings on he
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: psykes himself out and can't make the putts, then he
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 4: needs to to get in contention. There is a possibility
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: there's a mental block, and it certainly looks that way
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 4: at times, which is why I feel ashamed to make
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 4: this bet. But man from just like a pure data
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 4: standpoint and the historic talent, and also he actually has
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 4: a good contention performance score. He just hasn't gotten himself
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 4: into contention enough lately, like it's all there for him
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 4: to actually spike and win, and the market is still
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: treating him like a guy who doesn't have the upside,
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: even though like this is some really really high quality
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 4: golf that he's been playing since February.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the Collings.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 3: I already had some interest in just looking at things
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 3: and sort of what we've seen lately. I think it
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: was it's been two guys really and not like saying
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 3: both for DFAs or anything like that, just however shakes
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 3: out of shakes out.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: But just like the eleventh, the twelve's, the eighteen's like
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: this kind of pop up there.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 3: I'll put back to this for us, but that but
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 3: the other one, like last week, I remember, you know,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 3: talking through Ricky Faller like that eight kind of showed
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 3: another ninth last again how they get there in different factors.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: See WU is kind of like not on people's radar
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: this week. Why tenth, third, fourth They talked about it
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 3: last week and being buddies with Scotty and playing with
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 3: him out there and stuff like that, and he was
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 3: comfortable with those round him and Scotty going out together.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 3: So some of these guys that people aren't really talking
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: about as much, and they haven't really what does you
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: know Ludvig can't close on Sundays? All right, Well, he's
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: ninety six hundred. Looks like he's gonna get some ownership here,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 3: but not crazy amounts. And he's a guy that's been fifth, fifth, fourth.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 3: It's like, hasn't really done anything wrong to hurt people's feelings.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: It's just hasn't been as good as Cam Young, Rory
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 3: Xander that people want to play. So it's like there's
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 3: a lot of open opportunity this week, but from a
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 3: betting perspective, seventy five to one with three places like
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: you mentioned on Jordan Speed definitely like that call and
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 3: joined you on that one as well. All right, get
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: to our leverage lane, wrap this thing up here at
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: what an hour and fifteen minutes?
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: Mine is quite simple. I'm actually gonna go with fading
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: those two in my single entry. I'm gonna I'm.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: Gonna probably go to Rory just to be clear on that,
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 3: and just figure it out from there. There's a ton
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: of different builds that I like with Rory, but the
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: possibility is that I just fade all three of those
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: and go to the more balanced build as well, but
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: I won't have Xander or Cam young. I just think
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: there's just so much opportunity for variance in a two
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars single entry with fifty k op top. It's
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 3: like a lot of those builds we showed you different
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 3: versions that you can get unique with them. But it's
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: like I just I still see again, it's not always
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 3: about those guys. To me, it's still like Rory Fitzpatrick.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: I mentioned Fleet, when I mentioned Oberg, I mentioned see
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 3: Wu let the slate come to you when I already
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 3: see all of that, and it's gonna get me different builds,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: and it's not just who you play it, so you're
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 3: not playing like you always talk about it. That just
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: fits so well for me that it's very clean cut
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 3: just to leave those two out on my single entry
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: and I'm good with that this week.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 4: What about yourself, it's similar. I'm gonna I'm going to
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 4: fade the seven K chalk and honestly, like we talked
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: about earlier, how the seven K chalk is largely chalk
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 4: so that people can fit Cam and Xander or Rory,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 4: so like there's our leverage lanes are definitely correlated. This
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 4: week put it that way, but there are obviously ways
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: that you can fade the seven K chalk without going
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 4: to Rory. You can fade the seven K chalk while
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 4: playing Cam and or Xander, so it's it's not the
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 4: exact same leverage lane. I'm going to explore different builds.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: I'm going to explore, like the super balanced build where
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 4: my cheapest player is Spawn or Jason Day or Jordan Spieth,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 4: someone in that range. I'm gonna try builds where I
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 4: have one or two six K guys if I like
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 4: anyone down there, and and you know, trying Rory and
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 4: Cam or Rory and Zander or something like that. So
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna explore basically every possible build that I can
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 4: that doesn't include the seven K chalk, and I'm just
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 4: gonna pick my favorite of those. But I think that's
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 4: the that's where I see the largest ownership inefficiency is
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 4: that that collection of guys, the Kadiama Hooyguard Akshay justin
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 4: Thomas Gary Woodland. You can even throw Keegan and Smalley
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 4: and they're like they shouldn't be as much more popular
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 4: as they are than the guys around them, especially the
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 4: guys right above them.
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll get you, get you different very easily that way,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 3: and a definite way to get different this week. So
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: I love that call. Brandon brought this up. Didn't see
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 3: any PGA Championship pricing yet, but will note that Blickel,
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 3: myself and Mayo will be recording this Friday for the
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 3: PGA Championship.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: It should be out anytime now.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: Usually they get it out to try and get some
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 3: hype around when everything's locking up for this week. And
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 3: then Brandon also said, well, that's just so quickly, because
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 3: this is like a game theory mixed with one and
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 3: done and all the stuff that's right up our alley.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 3: I don't know if you're saying you you're saying you
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 3: still have those two after you got the Fits and
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 3: Cam wins, than by all means, I would definitely get
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 3: those two in the mix over the next two weeks
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 3: because you can win seventy five hundred dollars or something
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 3: for the segment. There's top ten prizes all that. I
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 3: will say this though, just my opinion, but if you
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 3: missed the Fits and Cam wins, I honestly think it's
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 3: over twenty people that got both of them, and a
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 3: lot of them will have Rory and Scotty still, So
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 3: just noting that, I actually think it's bad to say, well,
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 3: I miss those, but let me make up for it
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 3: here with these guys. I know you want money and
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: a win's a win, but I don't think it's gonna
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: put you in contention in the segment because so at
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 3: least a group or a handful of those fits and
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 3: cam wins are going to have at least one of those,
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 3: if not both, and pick up on you. So you
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 3: really only have like one week, if not zero, to separate.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 3: So I would still save those guys and look for
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: a way to get different and then use them in
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 3: the next segment. Paired together with some other guys, we
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 3: can find an angle in not to mention the PGA Championship,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: it's not a large sample size, but it's long enough
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: in my opinion where it's like as much as you
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 3: can get in golf, that's often a one where we
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 3: could see the outlier winner at the PGA Championship where
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 3: it's like, it's not like the US Open, it's kind
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 3: of Rory, and then the group after and I'm only
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 3: of these Scotty Rory, sorry of your group, and then like,
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 3: yes there's a group after that, but it's like those
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 3: the ones could matter more for you. So I think
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: there's value to hanging on if you didn't get the
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 3: fits and cam wins and then you want to add
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: there Alex before we get out here and then let
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: people know everything else where they can find you.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 4: The last thing I'll say on that is, I think
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 4: if you're thinking about like do I want to get
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 4: different here at the Trust or do I want to
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 4: get different int the PGA Championship, it's number one, I
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: think a lot more likely that the favorites like. Actually,
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 4: the better way to say that is there are fewer
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 4: guys with a really good chance to win this week
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 4: than there are next week. And the other thing is
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 4: the golf course next week is a lot more conducive
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: to like anybody winning because there's there's not a huge
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 4: emphasis on driving, which, as you mentioned, like nobody, no
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 4: one short is ever going to have a week where
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 4: they're super long off the tee and very rarely do
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: really inaccurate guys off the tee have a super accurate
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 4: week off the tea, whereas guys can spike everywhere else
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 4: at any point in time. And I think aronimink is
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 4: going to be a lot of wedges, surprising amount of wedges,
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: and just like really scorable conditions unless the course is
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 4: super firm with extremely thick rough and I just don't
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 4: see it setting up that way. So I think the
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: board is going to be wide open to get contrarian
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 4: next week. So if you're in good shape right now,
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 4: play the best place.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so as well. I agree, and he
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 3: did follow up said, I hit both have both. I
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: definitely think can go Rory this week and then let
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 3: it play from there. You don't even have to make
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 3: the Scotty decision yet, Just make the Rory one first,
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 3: move on because you're already in that handful that has it.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: You're tied for first for seventy five hundred right now.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 3: But even if it's seven of you this week that
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 3: have Rory left that are able to use them and
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: he wins, you still get to make that decision. And
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 3: then you also can have a look at those six
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 3: other teams and see what you have that they don't,
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 3: who you like, how you want to play. You can really,
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: you know, choose your own adventure at that point, just
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 3: hoping to get something right at the PGA Championships.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: So good for you.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 3: Congrats to you on being in that position so far.
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: But job's not finished. You know Kobe back in the day,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 3: rip to Kobe, but that's the one.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 4: You know.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 3: Job's not done. Job's not finished. You got to keep
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 3: it rolling. So Alex, let the people know where they
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: can find you, and then we'll get out of here. Man,
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 3: awesome show. Good good to get back to here this
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 3: one with you and go through it all.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this was a really fun. One reminder, you can
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 4: find all FTN stuff and my discord through my Twitter
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 4: at alex Plicka one and use promo code leverage for
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 4: ten percent off forever from my discord.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll just bring it back up quickly for us
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 3: here for the two fold but if you guys want
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: to check it out, I'll bring it up one last
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 3: time just so you guys see it very straightforward.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: It's at the top.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: It's our all access special right now. That is usually
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 3: ninety nine dollars a month, so it's just over half price,
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 3: fifty bucks off. It's forty nine dollars for the first
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 3: month only. But just to say it like obviously with
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: the majors coming up and the other big events and
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 3: all that stuff. You would usually pay fifty nine for
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 3: just golf only, which is a month, or seventy nine
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 3: with Sabersim. That's the all access pass for all the sports.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 3: So if you're playing MLB, you're playing NBA for the playoffs,
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 3: you're getting into MMA this weekend, tour, our Camp, top
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: UFC three, twenty eight, NASCAR, NHL Playoffs, whatever it might be,
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 3: the discord, all the education courses. Get over to ship
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 3: nation dot com and check it out. All right, awesome show, Alex.
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 3: Always love going through this stuff with you.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 3: We'll be back for the PGA Championship show for the
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 3: MAYL Media Network together with Mayo and then you and
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 3: I are recording this. We should note for a programming
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 3: note here forgot about it four pm Eastern. I think
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 3: we said next Tuesday we'll be live to record Leverage
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 3: Lane for the PGA Championship, So on earlier show next week.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 3: If you guys have any questions, just hit us up
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: for those winners and a skin shout out to our
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: guy lady.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: Hit me up in the discord or on x at
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: totagan Tambo.
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 3: Checkout shipnation dot com for Alex for myself, totagging Tambo
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 3: good luck in your contest this week and led ship It.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: Then its n