Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Reality TV Castings & NFL Draft Best Bets with Connor Allen

Transcript

Reality TV Castings & NFL Draft Best Bets with Connor Allen · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: The crown is yours, Kendra.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Already off to a great start here as we get
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: the podcast rolling. We are an Action network podcast. I'm
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your host, Brandon Kravitz, back at it with a giggly
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: first lady of the pod, Kendra Middleton, with me today.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I need you to talk me off the ledge here,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not literally, by the way, I track all of my
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: bets on Action obviously, like a good steward of this
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: podcast and buckets. I have my own Excel spreadsheet so
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't run from the reality of whatever is going
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: on with my betting endeavors. I want an accurate accounting
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: of whether or not I'm actually good at this, and
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I have been vigorously taking those notes since at least
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, probably earlier if I were to dig back.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: I am in the midst Kendra of perhaps the worst
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: losing streak of my lifetime. As a better I have
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: not had a winning day in the last nine days,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: so really it's been ten. I have lost nine days
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: in a row.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: What do I do here? I'm not pressing, by the way,
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: I'm not.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Making dumb bets, stupid parlays Live bets the itch to chase.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I have been very composed. I'm just fucking losing every day.
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: Oh I didn't swear gravits, did It wasn't me this time? Yes,
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: take another l Kravitz. No, I can't help you because
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: I am going through the most horrendous losing streak of
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: my entire life as well. It's been so bad that
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: I just I've had David Payne just dropped in our
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: chat to go touch some grass, and that's exactly what
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: I've been trying to do, is go touch some grass
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: and reconnect with my roots and nature because it's been
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: like a month for me.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah a month. Oh yeah, I'm not.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: I was hoping to get some sage wisdom from the
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: most composed person on this podcast.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: Me, you.
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: Call me composed.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Cost I think that I think that you're This is
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: the thing that I admire about you the most when
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: it comes to your sports betting. Your everybody has their
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: own sort of personality and portfolio as a sports better
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I think the thing that you do better than me
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: for sure, and perhaps Stucky who bets like I mean Stuck,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: he's betting on old dominion football. I think that I
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: think that you do a really good job of of
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: honing in on what it is you're good at and
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: not over exposing yourself.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: I overexpose.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: I'm basically like not allowed in the one hundred mile
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: radius of certain bets because I overexposed myself so much.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: So clearly it's not working for you, and you have
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: no advice for me, and I'll just keep sliding down
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: this slope.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: So thanks a lot.
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's been a very very difficult few weeks
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: for me for sure.
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: Okay, Well, I'm like down to eight units in the
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: last month. I think.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: I'm bleeding cash.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Maybe we should maybe we should throw a QR code
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: on this on this episode, see if people can get
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: a go fund.
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: It's okay. The NFL draft is going to be so
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: good for us. We're manifesting. Not right now, there's a
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: full moon the next couple of days, so not right now,
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: but the beginning of next week we'll start. You know, Actually,
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: you know what you should do. I'm gonna get woo
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: woo for a second. You should do a full moon
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: ritual and get Mallori to help you, because I know
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: she will, and you can just like purge out all
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: of the negativity and the bad things and be like,
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: I'm getting rid of all of this so I can
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: open space for new things. That's what we're doing full
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: Moon rituals to get rid of this. Nothing's working for us.
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: We're going back to the Etsy Witches.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: Okay, I dig it. Anything that could work.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, if I take an under right now, we're
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: getting a first pitch home run from the other team.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: If I bet Scottie.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Scheffler to win the Masters, the man can't make a
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: putt all of a sudden, The best golfer in the
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: world doesn't know what a birdie is. See, it's like
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: these sort of things. I think it does have to
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: be flushed out by some sort of supernatural science.
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: So yeah, thank you, Kendra. Yes I needed to.
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: I mean I live Hella close to Salem. Maybe I
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: could go, you know, snag me a witch. Yeah, maybe
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: she should kiss me on the forehead and not a
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: cheetah like we were talking about pre show.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: True, you all should come and join us for the
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: pre show meeting because it is a boot kendro.
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: What's on your mind today?
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: Okay, so Stucky's not here, but I was thinking earlier
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: this week. Actually about you guys when we got off
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: our show on Thursday, and how funny it would be
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: if any of us went on to reality TV. And
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: since he's not here, I feel like we can pick
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: what reality show he would be good or best at.
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: I personally would love to see him on Love Island. However,
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: that would not fit him because he is married with
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: a child. I just think that he would hate it
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: so much that it would be hilarious.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Also, stuck, you would just like stay in his room
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: and be generally disinterested.
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: In it, which is why I think that it would
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: be so entertaining, especially with like twenty five year old
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: kids like that would be peak TV. However, if you
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: had to go on a reality show with the intention
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: of winning, I put some in our notes for you
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: to look at for options. What reality show do you
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: think that you would want to go on or would
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: you have the best chance at winning.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: I for me, I think it would be Big Brother.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty good at athletic competitions, but that's not that
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be my My forte would be building relationships with
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: people in the house and then being just I don't
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: want to oversell my athleticism here.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: So I should not have started.
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: With them if I was going to say.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: What I mean, what.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, no, we don't want to see that. I
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: think I'd run like a seven second forty. But I
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: think i'd be just good enough at I'd be just
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: good enough at the athletic comps and just good enough
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: at the puzzles to get by.
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be like the elite guy on the show.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: And perhaps that would help me, because sometimes if I
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: love Big Brother, if if you're too good at those things,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: they get rid of you immediately because you're a threat
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: to everybody you want to be okay at those good
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: enough to win, not good enough to dominate. I think
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: I fit right there in that mold, and then also
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: personable enough to build relationships with everyone in the house.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: And that has been my forte as a human for
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: the most part. Is that if you PLoP me in
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: a room with people, I will probably become friends with
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: everyone in the room eventually over a slow build.
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: So I think I am because you want to be inside.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Oh no, I would die. I'd be out uncerta. I
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: would be done with Survivor in a day and a half.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I would the mosquitoes. No, thank you.
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: I have a call scheduled for my malaria pills for
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: my treat calling up though the same.
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: Thing that involves bugs. I'm out.
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: Is that why you won't get a spider? I get
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: it now? Okay, all right? So for stuck, I was thinking,
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: I'm stuck between Survivor because he has like the kumbaya
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: vibe of at all, and I think he'd be really
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: good at the physical challenges or the Amazing Race because
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: he travels a lot and he's like very he reads
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: a lot. So I'm like, I feel like he'd be
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: good at something like that. I just can't. I can't
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: decide which one he would be better at. I'm so
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: stuck between those two.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: I think he would be really good at the Amazing
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Race because he knows a lot about random places, So
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: if ye optome in Venezuela, I think he could find
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: his way through and be more knowledgeable about those geographical
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: locations than most.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: So that's a good one.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Another one to consider, because I believe he and his
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: wife own a bar, or at least run one.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: What about bar Rescue?
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: What is that as bar rescue with John Taffer where
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: he comes in and he kind of rages on these
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: on these bar owners, and then he kind of sorts
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: their life out and then he fixes their bar. I
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: think Stucky would be would be good on that show.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: It'd be more of like he'd be good at being
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: entertaining on that show, because you'd have this guy barking
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: at him and then stuck. You would probably get a
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: little defensive, but then give in and they would build
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: a wonderful bar together.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: That would be another idea for myself. I'm between The
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: Traders or Fear Factor. I think I would have more
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: fun on the Traders, but I would be better at
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: Fear Factor because.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I have a spider. Clearly your your answer, you have
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: a leg up on people. Immediately the second you step
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: on to Fear Factor. You book the trip to Africa
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: on purpose.
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: Click yeah, I think just a cheetah. Yeah, like I can.
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: I've jumped out of a plane. I'm not scared of
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: all the weird animals. I could eat some bugs. The
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: only thing that I think would really because we can't
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: swear on this episode because Gifford's not here, the only
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: thing that would really f me up would be if
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: I had to eat like ballute. Do you know what
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: that is like the little baby birds. I think that
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: would be the one thing that I like. Is that
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: what it's called? Hold on, I think that that's what
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: it's called.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: What if you had to eat cow tongue?
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: That's fine. I love cow toung it's delicious. Yeah. Ballute,
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: that's what it's called. It's a nutrient dense No, what
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: is it? No? What are the maby fruit eggs people eat?
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: I would blame minus two hundred on Kendro and fear Factor.
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it is called blute. Okay, Yeah, so a Philip
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: Posina Filipino of delicacy fertilized duck yet that's incubated, boiled
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: and eaten from the shell. That's the one thing that
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: would mess me up. I think that's the only thing
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: that I've seen on Fear Factor that I was like, yeah,
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: I could not do that. But like tarantula is on
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: my face, I don't I don't care about any of that.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: I love this idea. I mean that's obviously the choice
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: for you. I love this idea from production. Let's get
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: John Taffer on the pod we go pod Rescue. You
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: can just hop on. We just bring them on for
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: like five minutes and he can just yell at us
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: about why we suck. I think that would I could
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: use that today, humbling after losing nine days in a row.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: Let's get to our main dish.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: We've got Connor Allen joining us to talk about the
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: NFL Draft and some bets that we can make so
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: that we can get out of this rut that Kendra
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: and I are in during the NFL offseason. While there
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: hasn't been any movements on a potential deal for aj Brown,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Patriots Executive VP of Player Personnel Elliott Wolf is not
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: eliminating the possibility. I defer to you for all things
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: AJB and the Patriots and a potential marriage there ironic
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: that that marriage could be forming in the Verbel marriage
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: could be ending.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: What are we hearing on AJ Brown?
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: I kind of personally am in the camp that this
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: is a done deal. Like I think, here's kind of
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: where I'm at. I'm unsure of the rumblings that I'm
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: hearing of the Patriots trading up and the rumblings after
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: that deadline in June AJ Brown becoming a Patriot. I
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: think the decision here for everyone listening has to be
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: do you think how many suitors do you think that
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: they are going to be willing to pay that price
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: for him, And do you think that because of that,
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: it's going to have to happen sooner? There's going to
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: have to be you know, a trade in the draft,
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: some pickswaps, whatever, or do you think that it is
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: like everyone's kind of come to conclusion that he's going
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: to be a Patriot, that's the best fit for him.
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: Everybody's going to back out and they're just going to
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: let that deadline reach and it's going to be over.
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: That's kind of where I'm at. Is I think that
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: it's gonna happen. It's just a matter of is somebody
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: going to offer them potentially something that they can't turn
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: down or is this just is it? Is it what
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: it is? At this point? I don't know, but I
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: think he will be a Patriot. It's just going to
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: be are they going to have to pay it up
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: sooner and you know, give up some picks or is
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: that deadline gonna come? I just don't know if they're
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: going to chicken out.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I starting to get the feelings is they're the only
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: team that we're really hearing about consistently and if new
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: England knows that they can use that to their advantage
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: by driving the price down. If they just wait and
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: all these other teams have bowed out of the process
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: of getting aj Brown, then he becomes cheaper. And I
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: would think that trading for him after the draft would
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: be less expensive than trading for him pre draft, when
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: you have that bevy of picks and the Eagles have
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: more to ask for than what you go the draft
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: is over, so we'll offer you a second next year
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: or something.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: I also not sure what his exact price is.
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: I also think it depends on if you're in the
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: camp that this draft really is not all that, which
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: I'm not one of these people who kind of falls
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: into the category of these drafts that people consider lesser,
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: like we're not going to know that for a couple
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: of years. And I think that the only reason people
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: say that is because it's not a quarterback heavy draft.
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: We hear that consistently every time there's a quarterback heavy draft.
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: But the Patriots do have eleven picks, Like, that's a
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: lot of picks, And if they truly believe that this
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: draft just well, no, we're not super in love with
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: a lot of guys. Do they spend some of those
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: picks in trade with the Eagles. I don't know's that's
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: the question.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: I think that it's more what do you think the
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: price tag is for aj Brown?
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: I think that if the Patriots wanted to do it,
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: they could give up their first and two thirds.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and if you're Philadelphia, you got to do that
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: in a heartbeat. This is an older wide receiver now
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: that's already been paid.
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: Has issues in the locker room, on the sidelines, all
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: that kind of stuff. But Rabel's his guy. You know,
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: Rabel's his dude. It's the best fit for both of them,
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: to be honest, Like when you're looking at all, you know,
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: thirty two teams in the NFL, there's not a better
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: fit for both sides of this. However, Like he's not
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: I don't want to say he's not in his prime,
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: but I don't want to say he's It's hard to
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: assess because he's what twenty nine, but he's still bawling out.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: But his better days are probably behind him. It's just
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: if you can get him in an offense where he
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: can be the diva wide receiver number one. No questions asked,
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: What does that look like?
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: For him.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, look, they made it to a Super Bowl with
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Stefan Diggs talk about divas in the locker.
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: Room at thirty one years old.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the Eagles did just add Dontavian Wicks, which shouldn't
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: tell you everything, but he is sort of like dollar
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Store aj Brown, so that could be dollar.
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: Store is nice to say. That's kind.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: We're about to dive into the NFL Draft how to
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: bet the event, but first a word about DraftKings.
• 14:31
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• 15:12
  Speaker 2: Pumped about this one.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Connor Allen covers the NFL Draft in the Fantasy Football.
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: World for four for four Football.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Also the director of business development and betting at bet Spurts.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Catch him on the Move the Line Podcast. Many Many
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: hats this man wears.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: Connor. Welcome to the.
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: Show, Brandon Kendrick. I appreciate you having me on. This is,
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: in my opinion, one of the best times of a year.
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: I love the NFL draft. Information markets are some of
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: the best to bet on because there's no game that
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: has to we played. When the pick is in, the
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: pick is in, and that's it. So I love betting
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: on the draft. Appreciate you having me on.
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: Of course, we'll get into the nitty gritty in a moment.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Do you feel like in any way the draft is
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: starting to jump the shark or for years now we've
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: seen this go to almost like a stadium setting. We're
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: bringing in thousands of people, but the tens of thousands
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: every year, and and we've seen spikes and ratings in
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: all of that, but at some point in the NFL
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: hasn't experienced this as a whole. Trees don't grow to
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: the sky. At some point you see a dip. Do
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: you think that maybe it's just because this year's drafts
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: people aren't as jazzed about it as they are with
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: previous drafts.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: And we'll get into what makes that up.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: But do you think in any way that the draft
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: bubble is starting to burst, not for nerds like us,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: but for the casuals perhaps?
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: Well.
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: I tend to agree with you initially, but when you see,
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: like how many people just love doing mock drafts for
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: their teams, like their own fans just doing fan mock
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: drafts like they can have, you know, the late first
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: round pick and they'll still be jamming a seven round
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: mock with guys that you know, there's no way they're
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: getting that right, but they can dream.
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: Fans can dream. They love it.
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: I've been to the draft multiple times the last couple
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: of years. As you know, non media.
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: Just regular you can't see anything.
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: I mean, Detroit had the most people that I've seen
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: ever in Detroit by a long shot.
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: When I was there.
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: You know, Vegas was insane, for the draft veas. It
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: was an awesome time. It was it was so so fun.
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: The energy is just really cool, and like there's so
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: much like I don't know, hope from fans that probably
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: shouldn't have hope.
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: It's great.
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: So for somebody who's been there frying on a table
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: over the Jaguars.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: So I'm curious for both of you. Is people who
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: have been to the draft. I think most people listening
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: to or watching this have not been to an NFL draft,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: even though many have attended. What's the best part connor
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: of attending the draft? If somebody was thinking about it.
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: I would say, it's just like running into people and
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: then like the access of being close to just like everything,
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: you know, so like you can see everyone, like walking
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: down the red carpet and like hanging out and just
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: like being in the area, and then I don't know,
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: you'll be talking to someone in there, I don't know,
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: some some representative of some team, and like that's kind
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: of I think the thing with like the draft and
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: the combine, you just meet so many interesting people that
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: are connected to the league. On top of just kind
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: of like I mentioned, I think the fan atmosphere.
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: Is like really cool.
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: People are just so excited and so happy to be there,
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: and you know, wearing crazy outfits and stuff.
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: It's awesome.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Kendrick's gonna say getting drunk with fellow Jags fans, am
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: I right?
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: I was gonna say it's the fan reaction, because clearly,
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: when you're there the first day, there's want from every
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: single fan, and depending on where their team goes, you're
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: at there watching like the highest of highs for someone
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: and what they wanted, or like the lowest of lows.
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: And I when I was there, it was the Trayvon
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: Walker draft. I wanted Aiden Hutchinson and they took Trayvon
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: and I was standing on a table crying. I literally
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: have a video of me standing on a table crying
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: of a Trayvon Walker. So I think it's definitely the
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: fan reactions, particularly maybe my own, But yeah, I think
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: it's just because everybody is kind of if you're at
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: the draft, you're married to somebody that you want in
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: the first round, especially if you have a top ten pick,
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: and so kind of the theat of that is probably
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: my favorite part.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: That's fantastic. Well, you know, it kind of worked out.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: Treyvon Walker's pretty good too. No he's not. No, he
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: is not.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Now let's let's start to get into the nitty gritty
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: of the draft connor, how how do you judge what
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: makes up a good draft?
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: Is it the quarterback debate at the top? Is it
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: the depth.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: At particular positions? How do you judge what a good
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: draft is? A? And is this one B?
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: I think good is like pretty subjective. I think most
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: interesting and exciting is the one with the most skilled players,
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: you know, I think that's what you know, we all
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: get excited about, or most most fans get excited about.
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: This one doesn't necessarily particularly have that, right. So we're
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: looking at probably one, maybe two quarterbacks in the first round,
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: five to six wide receivers, one running back, maybe two.
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: So it's a little bit lighter compared to most drafts.
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: Now that being said, there could there have been plenty
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: of drafts that are stocked with like great offensive linemen
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: and good defensive linemen and you know, great defensive players too.
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: From my understanding as someone who you know, I don't
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: do a full big board or like a big prospect thing.
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: I like to aggregate information and make bets on the
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: draft and try and figure out What's most likely from
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: my understanding for people who do do that, though, is
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: that this is like a particularly middling draft. There's a
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: couple of pretty good players, and then from there it
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: is a lot of the same and so like you're
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: kind of after the first twelve to fifteen players, people
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: are saying that there's like a big tear drop here,
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: you know, after that first half.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: The over under for quarterbacks selected in round one is
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: one and a half and it's a juiced buy. But
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: I think this one might be worthy of a bet
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: minus one fifty to the over. We know Mendoza is going,
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: so really it's just a question of does Ty Simpson
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: go in round one? Is that a bet worth making?
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: Is it one that you've already taken the plunge on.
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: It's not one that I've played historically. Quarterback bets in
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: the first round have not treated me all that well.
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: I've been on the wrong side of almost every single one,
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: so I think i've like self excluded myself from quarterback bets.
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: But it's Ty Simpson makes a lot of sense here.
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: Arizona is favored to him, rumored to be trading up
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: here for a guy like ty Simpson, there's a couple
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: of teams in the back of the first round that
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: could very well like him. I mean, the Jets at
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: sixteen certainly need a quarterback. I don't think that's the
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: way they go, but you know, it wouldn't be the
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: craziest thing in the world if the Jets decided to
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: take a quarterback with just Geno Smith intew right now.
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: So I think there's a lot of outs for him.
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: I just don't know where he goes.
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: So for me, I'm staying away, but you know, I
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: could definitely see the case here for him to go
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: first round.
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: Before we get too far into this, I want to
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: know what your draft specialty is. Would you say it's
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: finding info on players to go to a specific team.
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: Would you say that it's players to go you know,
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: over under the specific number that they lay out, or
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: is it something like a team to take a certain position.
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: Where do you think that you kind of have a
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: handicap on the draft?
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: Yeah, generally my strategy is to put a lot into
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: like over unders, because usually there's like you can kind
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: of map out multiple outs for a player or a
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: lack thereofabouts, you know, so like you can you can
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: look at like, oh, okay, this player only has one
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: chance to go basically before this number, and if he
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: doesn't go there, then you win the bet something like that.
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: So I think that like that, those are the easiest
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: in my opinion, to win. Other than that, I sprinkle
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: some long shots on like player to pick, especially in
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: like the late you know, seven to ten range somewhere
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: in there, because there's some really good values. I mean,
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: for example, Ted McMillan on draft day last year was
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: twelve to one to go eight. He seemed all the
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: way to even you know, pretty close to draft time,
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: there were still some I don't know, five to ones,
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: seven to ones hanging out there on tet to go eight.
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: So like, I think that there's some fun long shots
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: in that range, but it's not what makes up I would.
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: Say the core of what I bet.
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: If you can bet more of the over unders, kind
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: of like the minus one tents. And I'm also not
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: afraid to lay some juice. I took ACC players under
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: six and a half and minus two sixty. I mean,
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: literally all of the ACC players talked about in the
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: fringe of first round have to go in order to
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: lose that bet. And I don't think I think you're
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: only gonna get five to seven, to be honest at
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: this point.
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: So Jeremiah Love sitting at that five and a half
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: draft number over on DraftKings, that means that pretty much
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: the Giants are going to decide whether he's going to
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: be theirs or he's going to be left for the
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: taking for probably the Tennessee Titans. A lot of kind
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: of conversation surrounding this Giants pick. Do you think that
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: he goes to the Giants or do you think that
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: he falls after that five and a half.
• 23:19
  Speaker 5: Yeah, So it's interesting.
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: So Schefter came out a month ago and said, maybe
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: a couple of weeks ago at this point, said I
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: don't think that Jeremiah Love is going to go to
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: the Titans. So, you know, I take that not necessarily
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: a gospel, but it's certainly an interesting tidbit here. And
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: then at five he also mentioned he didn't think he
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: was going to go there. And most of the smoke
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: has been around them taking either an offensive lineman to
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: protect Jackson Dart or a defensive player that is going
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: to help them stop the run. So in my mind,
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: that leans towards maybe you know, a sunny styles like
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: a linebacker there I think could make a lot of sense,
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: or one of the offensive linemen. It could be for Noah,
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: could be Noah. Like, there's a lot of different players
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: that I think could fix. They have a lot of
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: different needs. A running back right now now would be
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: kind of surprising in my opinion. So if I were
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: taken over our Jeremi Love, it would be an over now.
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: That being said, Jeremiah Love is like a top three
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: player on most big boards. If like NFL, you know
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: adjacent talent evaluators who actually spend the time. So it's
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: one of those like do you balance when you need
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: versus taking just a really good player. I tend to
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: think they're not going to, but it's something that I'm
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: not entirely sure about right now.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: He is such a special player and still running back.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: That's the cost proposition of a running back going that
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: early in the draft is not something that typically teams
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: want to want to take the plunge on b John
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Robinson has worked out, Jamiir Gibbs has worked out, but
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: there's also the Leonard Fournettes of the world, which have
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: absolutely not The wide receiver class this year feels like
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: Baskin Robbins. It's just a pick your flavor of number
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: two wide receivers potentially in the NFL. Who are you
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: most confident in when you look at their athletic profile,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: as Carnell take clearly the number one got for you.
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the Tate's gonna be the first wide
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: receiver drafted, not almost certainly. But what's been interesting lately
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: is it seems like, you know, Carnil Tate's like the
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: number one team of most teams boards, you know, for
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: I would say for the majority of teams. But then
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: recently in the last week or so, we've kind of
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: heard some smoke around Jordan Tyson. And he's a player
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: that like basically they've said, if he was healthy, if
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: you can get him for fifteen games, he would be
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: the wide receiver one. And so that kind of puts
• 25:29
  Speaker 4: an interesting perspective of like does he clear teams medicals,
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: because each teams runs their own medicals and like, you know,
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: like looks at the player individually, and so if he
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: passes those, I think he's an interesting bet to go
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: in the top ten. You know, that's like plus two
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: fifty plus three hundred. The Saints are very interesting. The
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: Chiefs could use a wide receiver potentially with their in
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: flux I don't know, you know, I guess receiving core.
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: I would say at this point maybe the Commanders, I
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: don't know, you like that. There's a lot of different
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: teams here where I think could they prefer a guy
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: like Tyson? We don't really know, so I think he's
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: an interesting look there. I would say it's probably Tate Tyson.
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: And then Lemon is kind of like in that little
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: next tier here of like probably going to the Rams
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: or maybe you know, sixteen to the Jets, something like that.
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: So I would say it's those three, and then there's
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: like another group of three after that that are in
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: the back half of the first round.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: The over under four wide receivers. Where are we looking
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: at for that?
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: Is that? Is that a bet worth making?
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: I got a well it's five and a half, so
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: you're looking at the three that I mentioned, and then
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: it's Omar Cooper, who I feel pretty good about being
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: a first round pick. I think Jets at sixteen has
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: gotten a lot of buzz lately. If not, you know,
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: maybe early twenties, it seems like at the latest. And
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: then you're kind of with two guys here to basically
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: break that five and a half tie here. So it's
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: like Casey Conception, who I really like. I think he's
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: an awesome player. He's a lot of fun I.
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: Would expect to the locker room.
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: Yep, there you go, exactly, yeah, mid mid twenties pick.
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: But then it's up to basically Denzel Boston, which.
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: I don't know. I mean, I think he.
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: Could be a first round pick. I think that he
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: could easily slide out. Like it's it's a really tough
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: one because I like all these other guys a lot,
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: and I feel very good about five going six. I
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: just don't know, and I don't think there's another out
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: for I don't know if there's any other like outs
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: for other players now whatever. Two years ago, we got
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: the Ricky Piersoll and Xavier Loquet, like, you know, kind
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: of sliding in the back there like type of players.
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: I don't know if we have those type of guys
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: in this class. So it's basically just comes down to
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: do you think Denzel Boston is a first round pick.
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: That's basically what you're betting, at least in my opinion.
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: So for me, that's that's kind of a tough one.
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: So you mentioned the Rams and the receiver thing. I
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: think I looked this morning and it was plus one
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: point fifty for them to take a receiver. I kind
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: of really like the value here because I'm in the
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: camp that after everything going on with Pooka, they might
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: be looking to find a replacement for him and obviously Davante,
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: because I don't expect he's going to be around much longer.
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: Do you think that that's enough value there or would
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: you need a little bit more to get in on
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: that considering that they do have both starts solidified and
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: that's an early pick.
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: No, I have that one written down. I think that
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: that's a great bet. I mean, I mean, you're looking
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: at this team. DeVante's aging, he's getting old. I think
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: even if you had Puoka here like that could make
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: sense to draft maybe a guy like mkayle Lemon. You know,
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: a guy that can play slot and like kick DeVante outside.
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: He can spend a little bit of time learning and
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: be good to go from there. Now you have Puka's
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: off season, you know, which I'm sure the Rams are
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: not too pleased with, and so you have that with
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: DeVante aging and you know, the Rams don't always have
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: higher picks like this and a chance to get like
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: a potential playmaker. And I like too that you're getting
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: just a wide receiver. So maybe they like Omar Cooper,
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: maybe they like I don't know, maybe they take conception,
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: you know, like that's very possible. It wouldn't be the
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: craziest thing in the world for them to get a
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: guy or Tyson falls or I can't imagine Cardinal Tate
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: falls that far. But you know, again, like you're getting
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: all those different kinds of values there. So I like
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: that bet at plus one.
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: Fifty Concepcione would be an absolute sweetheart in LA and
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: I think just how lovable he is would kick Puka
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: with the fans immediately. Baby.
• 29:03
  Speaker 5: I think that'd be awesome. That's a fun fit.
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: I hadn't really thought about it until we started talking
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: about it here, but I think it's kind of interesting.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: I think you guys are crazy teams that realize that
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: they can draft a wide receiver that turns into an
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: All Pro in the fifth round don't tend to then
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: take the plunge in around one. And the Rams probably
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: a little full of themselves on the on the scouting
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: look at the Pittsburgh Steelers, like for years they were like,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: we don't need a wide receiver. Though the Packers for
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: years didn't do it. I mean they got what did
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: you say, Kendra?
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: Wasn't that a Gladstone pick? Though? Like he's not there anymore.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but still like as an organization, they've realized that
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: they don't need to take the plunge in around one.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: And so I follow up with that because I think
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: both of you are out to lunch. If you think
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: that the Rams are going round one wide receiver? How
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: much Connor does that? Because you're the guest here, who
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: cares what I think? In this situation? How much do
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: you take draft history into account when you're looking at
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: betting some of the teams to draft certain positions or
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: players to land in certain locations, not necessarily just for
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: the Rams, but for the entire draft. How much does
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: draft history factor into your analysis?
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: I think it definitely matters to an extent, Especially too,
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: I think there's another layer of like certain teams visit
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: with certain players, like in their top thirty visits, and
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: I think that's really interesting track and look at so
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: like the Steelers always meet with their first round pick,
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: so like, if they haven't met with them their top
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: thirty visit, they're probably just not drafting them. And so
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: I will say for the Rams, they've only had two
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: first round picks, one first round picks in twenty sixteen,
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: so like, I don't think that they're like a good
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: like there's no judgment there. So like they yeah, they
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: landed Cooper Cup, they landed you know, like Pukaakua, and
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: maybe you're right, maybe they are just like mcveigh's like
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: I can draft anyone and make them awesome, which is
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: probably true to some extent. And they did just draft
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: Terrence Ferguson in the second round last year, so I
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: was because initially I was like, well, maybe Kenyan City,
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: I don't know, maybe they draft another playmaker there, But
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: they did draft Terrence Ferguson and they resigned Higbye, I believe.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: So the last time that the Yeah, now that I'm
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: thinking about it, it's not just wide receiver. When's the
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: last time the Rams took a plunge on a skill
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: position player that early in the draft?
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: Was it Todd Gurley? I mean I think you'd have
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: to go back aways.
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah, because they just keep trading, you know, the whole
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: saying of you know them picks.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I guess you could play that game
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: with any position guys, because the Rams never have first round.
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: Picks, right, So it's like I kind of throw the
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: Rams out the window a little bit. But I think
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: that some of the other like history stuff is really
• 31:31
  Speaker 4: interesting and you can look at like trends of like
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: you know, Mickey Loomis loves a certain archetype of player.
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: They have to be athletic, they have to be you know,
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: like certain gms love certain guys.
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: And some people care about age a lots, and people
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: don't care about age at all. The Browns tend to
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: draft like super young guys. It's like the youngest thing.
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: It's like twenty one point four on average of first
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: round picks, whereas like the Rams and the Bears like
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: don't care at all about age basically they'll just draft
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: whoever they want. And so there's all these different kinds
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: of trends that I think are really interesting for gms
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: that some are super applicable, some are I guess too
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: new to know, Like, you know, what do we do
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: with the Titans with you know, I Borgonzi just drafted
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: cam Ward last year, and you know that's not really
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: a big sample size to go off of.
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: So you dropped the name of my favorite player in
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: this draft, so I have to piggyback off of it.
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: Kenyon Sadik freak under fifteen and a half plus one
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: forty Right now, Miami and Casey both fall in that threshold.
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: Is this something you take a stab at? Obviously, Philly
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: and Baltimore are both in the conversation for him, but
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: they're further back. I don't think he's gonna last that long.
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: I'm kind of loving this look right now.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: The under fifteen a half is interesting. It's like, I mean,
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: there's two potential fits. He just like broke the combine
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: with his athletic testing was like a nine point nine
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: zero maybe him.
• 32:44
  Speaker 5: Yeah, and then so it's awesome.
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: Now it's like what team feels like, all right, we
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: can make get the most out of this player, you
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: know immediately Maybe it's you know, I think any of
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: those teams could feel that way, Like if there were
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: some rumors of the Chiefs being interested in the guy
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: like kenyans with Travis Kelcey kind of on the way
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: out I haven't bet on that, but again, like I mean,
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't think that that's that crazy. I was going
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: through some of the mocks from last year and like
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: you know, aggregate full mock aggregation here, like anything after
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: pick five was just wrong, Like it was just all
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: all the chalk was basically wrong. So I think that's
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: always interesting to look at.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at your latest mock. You have Sadik going
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: way later than that at nineteen to the Panthers, which,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: by the way, what a fun fit that would be
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: to get get him on our jet.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, oh my god.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: You know what I miss about the football season more
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: than anything betting on the Carolina Panthers.
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: Plus two points my ride winner, no doubt. No.
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: Conner, you mentioned the word smoke earlier as somebody who's
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: betting the drafts. Clearly you're doing a lot of This
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: is an informational game. It's not like we're betting that
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: in the season, whether it's props or sides or totals,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: and you're breaking down matchups and things like that, and
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: it's a result space business. This is an information game
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: that you're playing. But we're fed a lot of bs
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: during draft season, So how do you sift through that?
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: Do you you feel like you have a keen eye
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: for or a BS meter that helps you scope some
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: of this out because you can't dismiss everything that you're told,
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: but you have to dismiss a lot of it.
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: How do you go through that?
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: Well, it's like a I kind of try and like
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: take note of everything, and over the last couple of
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: years you can kind of know like who to listen
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: to and when to listen to them.
• 34:28
  Speaker 5: Right, So, like.
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: There's different people like Peter Schrager usually puts out his
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: first mock and just like essentially tests like the market,
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: Like he's like puts things out in his first mock
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: that he's like seeing what the reaction will be.
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: So it's not accurate at all.
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: Like it's always like really wrong, but it's like interesting,
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: you know, kind of look at there. Daniel Jeremiah usually
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: is accurate mocks. And so there's like four or five
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: key insiders that I like to look at that are
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: kind of like the core of everything. But you talk
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: about smoke, I think, and we haven't touchdown yet the
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: number two and three picks right now crazy smoke here.
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: So we're talking about a week and a half ago,
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: Arvo Reese was minus two hundred to go second overall.
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: Since then, Adam Schefter or not Adam Schefter, Daniel Jeremiah,
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: Albert Breer, Peter Schrager, Todd McShay all have come out
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: and said, we think the pick is gonna be David
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: Bailey based on people we're talking to from around the league.
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: No one with the Jets, but from around the league.
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: On the other hand, all of the local Jets guys,
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: like anyone that's like, you know, ESPN, like Rich Shimini
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: or like any of the bad Lands crew, they all
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: think that it's still r Var Reese. The odds have
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: just been like ping ponging back and forth. It's been
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: crazy to watch. How do you like, how do you
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: decipher that?
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: Like?
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: Is it the local guys are going to be right?
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: Is it the guys who are national going to be right?
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: The national guys usually tend to win. But I'm sticking
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: with Reese right now. I think it's I think that
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: he is a pick. I trust the local guys, but
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: it's like talk about smoke, like this is something that
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: I think is going to be extremely interesting to see
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: play out.
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the number two pick in the draft. I think
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: that's for pretty much everybody. That's where the draft starts,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: and there's already so much confusion around that. The pick
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: for me that's the most fascinating in the first round
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: is the Chiefs at nine. They have such an important
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: pick sitting in front of them. They're at this weird
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: part of their retooling where they kind of have to
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: get this pick right because their roster is old and
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: expensive and they've gotten rid of big pieces like McDuffie.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: They've brought in Kenneth Walker, Travis Kelcey's on his last legs.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: They could look tight end. That could be a Saediq
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: move for them. Where do you think the Chiefs go
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: at nine? And are you as fascinated with that pick
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: as I am?
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Because on one hand, like the Ramsey he talks about,
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: like the Chiefs generally have like you know, taken corners
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: later and like developed them right. So that's been kind
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: of their strategy there. But they're also in a perfect
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: landing spot for Jermald McCoy maybe in manswor de Laine,
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: who are both like two corners supposed to go in
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: that range. On the other hand, they need some offensive
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: line help and that's like a big thing for them.
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: So do they go with a spencer for no or
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: like one of the other guys, one of the other
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: offensive linemen that again are very much in the sweet
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: spot of that range, And so I lean towards the
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: trenches here. But man, if they like fall in love
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: with a guy like Jermald McCoy, that could make sense.
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: Like Sadik the chiefs like, I've not made a bet
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: at number nine. I've made a bet on almost every
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: other pick and not nine because I'm I just don't know.
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: I think it's super volatile. So maybe that lens is
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: starts taking some long shots. But I'm hoping that we
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: can maybe get some better tidbits and more information and
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: that can lead to a more direct bet for me
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: at least.
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: I am usually the silly question person on this show,
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: but unfortunately I want to talk about Rubin Bain for
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: a second. This is not, you know, a laramie tun
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: stool situation. It's worse than the uga stuff we've seen
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: in the future. Where do you think he falls because
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: of this? How do you kind of see this situation
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: playing out? Or is he just a lock to go
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: to Philly because they seem to love players with isshes.
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting because you know that was reported I
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: don't know whatever this week, maybe earlier this week publicly,
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: and a lot of people came out and said, yeah,
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: we already knew this, teams knew this, whatever. So but
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: now you have the whole repercussions of like PR right,
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: So it's not just like, Okay, the teams knew this.
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: It's like now every all the fans know that you're
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: drafting a guy, you know, who has some character issues
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: and some offield concerns, and so that's not great PR either.
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: So it's kind of like a twofold impact of like
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: which teams care about that, which teams don't. I don't
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: think the Chiefs really care about that all that much
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: if we want to, you know, be clear there, and
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: there are teams who will not care about it. His
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: over under right now is eight and a half. Just
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: heavy over it, like steamed massively with the news. It
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: might be a little bit of double counting there. I
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: tend to lean over. I tend to think he's going
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: to go in link eight to twelve, eight to fourteen range.
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: But he's a super talented player. He's very good.
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: If a team like Tennessee ops to go with him,
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't be all that surprised if, like, because if
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: they're don't land Reese or Bailey and they're not taking love,
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: who are they taking? You know, like it's yeah, some
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: kind of long shot, And so it wouldn't surprise me
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: that much. And again, it's almost like an injury.
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: Type of thing. Medical.
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: It's like there's some teams who are gonna be like,
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: he's off our board, and something's gonna be like, oh,
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: he's a great value, he's a good player, and we
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: don't care about the offield stuff.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Cleveland still picks top ten, So let's let's sa.
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they don't carry there. They don't carry there. Okay,
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: on a lighter note, you mentioned that you love taking
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: long shots. What are your favorite if you have any
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: right now long shots coming up for next week?
• 39:29
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think there's a couple here.
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: So Steelers cornerback nine to one I think is pretty interesting.
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: They met with Chris Johnson, who's like a fringe first
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: round pick and has just been like getting a ton
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: of steam lately for him to go first round. So
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: I mean I think that he would be a really
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: interesting fit on the Steelers at nine to one. And
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: then one other long shot here a player position to
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: team is Niners wide receivers like plus four fifty. I
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: think that's an interesting conception spot. That's been the kind
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: of a little drum beat. Later if he falls there,
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: it's you know, twenty seven or twenty eight, I believe.
• 40:04
  Speaker 5: So I think that's an interesting.
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: Spot there at plus four fifty, Like they basically have said,
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: like don't rule out wide receiver, you know, even with
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: some talent, but you know, with Ayuk seemingly on the
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: way out, you know, Geebo obviously long gone there, Juwan
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: Jennings out. They have Ricky Piersall, he hasn't been necessarily
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: a figure of health. So I think that they're an
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: interesting spot potentially.
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: To mean he did get shot.
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: He did get shot that I've heard that that is
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: not helpful towards playing football.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: So I h this is mostly for my own fantasy purposes,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: by the way, but is there clear second best running
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: back in this class? Obviously we all love Jeremiah Love,
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: but it seems like there's some major awards with these
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: guys that are after him. His teammate Jidarian Price. I
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: really like Mike Washington, but he's an imperfect prospect. Do
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: you have the guys from Penn State who I thought
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: going into last year we're going to be highly sought
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: after from draft time? I'm not even hearing Nick Singleton's
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: name mentioned these days. There's some guys in there that
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: I liked in college, but it just doesn't seem like
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: the the scouts.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: The gms that it does.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: The draftnicks are all that excited about this draft class.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: So who is after?
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: Love? If you like anybody?
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: Yeah, if you shop around, there's some places posting like
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: second position drafted or whatever, and Jenerian Price is like
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: minus four hundred or something to be the second running
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: back drafted, So I would lean on that. I think
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: there are Yeah, like there are. I think there are
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: other talented like mid round running backs. It just depends on. Like,
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: in my opinion, draft capital matter is kind of a
• 41:38
  Speaker 4: lot for those guys, Like if you're getting like a
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: mid second round pick on them, you know, for dynasty
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: and fantasy purposes, probably jack and way up. If you know,
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: like they're fall to Day three.
• 41:48
  Speaker 5: I mean, it's kind of just.
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: A long shot unless you're getting like a Bill Crosskey
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: Marriott type of like preseason hype or anything like that.
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: So it's it's a tough one because I agree with you.
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: I thought that, you know, we'd see a lot of
• 41:59
  Speaker 4: good prospects here and they really just haven't panned out.
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: Last question from me, gambling on mister Irrelevant feels kind
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: of like gambling on the coin toss in the Super Bowl,
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: of which I do. So, do you have a position
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: that you'd like for mister irrelevant? Do you throw any
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: money at it? Is it a he he haha, just
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: silly time for you or is it something you avoid?
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I generally don't, but I mean now that you
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: brought it up, like I mean, I don't know, Like
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: a corner or running back is kind of fun, Like
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: seven to one corner, it's kind of interesting. I mean,
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: there are worse bets that I've made than just throw
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: some money at seven to one.
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: So fun betting on the length of the anthem?
• 42:38
  Speaker 5: Oh, totally, that's one of my favorites. That's awesome.
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, these days, there's just too much information out there,
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: you know.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: I used to back in the day, used to watch
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: the anthem singer on YouTube and now we've got people
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: that are listening.
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: To the parked outside of the stage.
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: Exactly a timer.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: I can't beat that. Can't beat that market anymore. Down
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: the ground exactly can't beat the boots on the ground.
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: Guy.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Let's get to our Draft Kings segment of the week.
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: Time to plant our flag, presented by Draft Kings. The
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: crown is yours to get it.
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that deck.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: We are looking at our favorite NFL Draft bet to make.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: We can go with anything here. The buffet is open.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Kendra will start with you.
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: This is no surprise if you have listened to this
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: show all the last couple of weeks. I'm going the
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: over one and a half quarterback selected in round one.
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: I think three are going in the first round, and
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: I'm sticking to it. I think it's a really good price,
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: even though some people hate it. It is my favorite
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: bet for the entire draft.
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: Connor, what about you?
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go with a fun one here that
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: I really like. And I just keep kept adding to
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: Chase Besonta's first round pick. It's like plus three hundred
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: to plus four hundred, depending on where you can find it.
• 44:01
  Speaker 5: I think his range.
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: Starts as soon as the Steelers Chargers. He's like very
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: clearly the second interior offensive lineman in the draft outside
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: of Vega. So I think that I'm gonna go with
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: Bisontes to be a first round pick. Tons of outs
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: for him in the twenties, and you're getting a great
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: price on him.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: I am gonna close us out with the Chiefs to
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: draft a safety at plus six point fifty I mentioned earlier,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: they have to nail this pick at nine Caleb Downs.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: If by some miracle he's sitting there when they pick,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have to throw their needs out
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: the window.
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: They are drafting top ten here. You can't get to
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: need hungry.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: Yes they need offensive line help, Yes they need some
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: better skill position players, but if he's there, he'll be
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: the best player on the board. They just traded McDuffie.
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: They need help in the secondary, and Caleb Downs is
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: a stud and an adult on defense. They cannot afford
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: to get this pick wrong if he's there. Plus, I
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: like him to go to the Kansas City Chiefs.
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: Connor Allen, where can people find your work?
• 45:07
  Speaker 5: Yeah?
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: You can find me on Twitter at Connor Allen NFL.
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: Then I'll have a couple of mock drafts and official
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: bets coming up.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: Ladies and gentlemen.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode. Connor, thanks so much
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: for hanging out with us today. We appreciate it. Shout
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: out to our producers as well, David Payne and Gifford Gold.
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: The Favorites will return on Thursday.
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: Afternoon right here on the Action Network YouTube page or
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: wherever you download your favorite podcast. Our show today has
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: been presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler