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How SEC Chaos Could Benefit The Buckeyes In The 2026 College Football Playoff Race · Buckeyes TomOrrow Morning

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  Speaker 1: Welcome to Buckeyes tomorrow morning for Tuesday, October 27th. I'm
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  Speaker 1: your host, Tom Moore. The USC game in four days,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: the game against Michigan in 32 days. Today's episode presented
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  Speaker 1: by our friends at Jeff Ruby's at Columbus, proudly offering
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  Speaker 1: nationally acclaimed USDA prime steaks, seafood and sushi, impeccable service,
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  Speaker 1: live entertainment, and an attention to detail that is simply unmatched.
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  Speaker 1: Just go to jeffruby.com slash Columbus to check out the
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  Speaker 1: menu and make a reservation today. All right, on today's show,
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  Speaker 1: we're going to welcome in our buddy Tony Gerderman of buckeyeinsiders.com.
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  Speaker 1: And this is like a broader look at college football
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  Speaker 1: right now. We're going to kind of zoom in a
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  Speaker 1: little bit on the SEC, just to sort of give
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  Speaker 1: you a sense for how this season is shaping up
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  Speaker 1: to be a little different than what you traditionally assume
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  Speaker 1: a college football season is going to be, because there
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  Speaker 1: is some different stuff this year. And one of the
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  Speaker 1: things that is different is, boy, everyone sure is losing
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  Speaker 1: football games, huh? This is the first time since the FBS, FCS,
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  Speaker 1: or 1A, 1AA split in 1978, that only three teams
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  Speaker 1: have been undefeated at this point in the calendar. Only
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  Speaker 1: three teams in FBS are undefeated right now, and none
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  Speaker 1: of those teams are in the SEC. Miami from the ACC,
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  Speaker 1: Utah from the Big 12, and UCLA from the Big 10,
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  Speaker 1: exactly the three teams that I'm sure we all predicted
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  Speaker 1: would be the last three unbeatens in the nation. But
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  Speaker 1: We're going to take a look at the SEC because
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  Speaker 1: it feels like they become the center of every conversation
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  Speaker 1: around the college football playoff, whether you want them to
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  Speaker 1: be or not. Don't worry, Kirk, Kirk, Kirk street still
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  Speaker 1: on TV. So you're still going to hear a bunch
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  Speaker 1: about the SEC this fall, but Tony, there's something different
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  Speaker 1: about the SEC this year. Number one, everyone's losing, but
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  Speaker 1: number two, they're playing nine conference games this year. And,
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  Speaker 1: and for years and years and years, the big 10
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  Speaker 1: was doing nine and the SEC was doing eight and
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  Speaker 1: everyone heard, Oh, that doesn't make any difference because they're
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  Speaker 1: so tough. And it's like, well, Now you're seeing a
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  Speaker 1: ninth conference game means there are nine more losses out
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  Speaker 1: there or eight more losses, I guess, because there's 16
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  Speaker 1: teams out there. Everyone's going to pick up another loss
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  Speaker 1: or half the league is going to pick up another
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  Speaker 1: loss that wouldn't have been out there in previous years.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's not just the bottom eight that are
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  Speaker 2: going to pick up the losses. It's going to be
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  Speaker 2: a mix of everything, especially what we've seen this year
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  Speaker 2: where you've had some unranked teams beating the number one
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  Speaker 2: ranked team or beating undefeated or just coming up and
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  Speaker 2: biting some teams that you would think would be better
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  Speaker 2: than that. And now through the, the more difficult schedules, the,
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  Speaker 2: the NIL and the transfers, it's really hard to stack
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  Speaker 2: and stock. And you've seen quarterback injuries and how many
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  Speaker 2: teams have dealt with that this year and how many
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  Speaker 2: teams have been devastated by it. And how many teams
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  Speaker 2: are still powering through like Mississippi state with their quarterback injuries.
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  Speaker 2: It's been pretty devastating UCLA with their quarterback injuries. They're
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  Speaker 2: still managing now. the schedules of those two teams have
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  Speaker 2: influenced those records greatly, but we talked before the season
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  Speaker 2: that there's going to be some, some three loss sec
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  Speaker 2: teams in the playoffs this year. And we've also talked
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  Speaker 2: about how Ohio state could get in as a three
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  Speaker 2: loss team with the right losses. I don't think the
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  Speaker 2: big 10 is helping Ohio state all that much in
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  Speaker 2: there in those odds, but also like there's, there's going
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  Speaker 2: to be some three lost sec teams in this playoff.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah. I, Right now, we're sort of assuming that the
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  Speaker 1: college football playoff is going to do things the way
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  Speaker 1: the college football playoff has traditionally done that, which is
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  Speaker 1: sort by fewest losses. And that's kind of broadly how
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  Speaker 1: they do the rankings. We don't know that yet. Theoretically,
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  Speaker 1: they could change their criteria a little bit this year.
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  Speaker 1: The first college football playoff rankings come out in a week.
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  Speaker 1: That's next Tuesday, the first college football playoff rankings. So
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  Speaker 1: we'll see how that all shakes out at that point.
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  Speaker 1: But if you sort of assume, OK, Ohio State has
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  Speaker 1: one loss right now. they will almost certainly be able
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  Speaker 1: to deal with one more regular season loss. Now, you've
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  Speaker 1: got a bunch of potentially losable games on the road
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  Speaker 1: to USC, Oregon at home, Northwestern at home, on the
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  Speaker 1: road to Nebraska, home for Michigan. And traditionally, the conference
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  Speaker 1: championship weekend has not really counted against you in terms
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  Speaker 1: of losses as far as the college football playoff goes.
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  Speaker 1: So again, assuming everything is sort of as it has
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  Speaker 1: been you would assume Ohio State could have one more loss. Now,
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  Speaker 1: can they bear two more losses? That's kind of an
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  Speaker 1: interesting question. And that's where we sort of get into
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  Speaker 1: the conversation we're having here. Because the one loss teams
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  Speaker 1: in the SEC right now, and obviously there's plenty of conversations.
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  Speaker 1: We could do a show like this on the Big
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  Speaker 1: 12 or the Big 10. And those are long and
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  Speaker 1: complicated conversations. The ACC is about the only one that's easy.
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  Speaker 1: Everything else is a little bit complicated. But the one
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  Speaker 1: loss teams left in the SEC are Georgia and Kentucky.
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  Speaker 1: and both of them have three games left against teams
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  Speaker 1: with two or fewer losses. Georgia plays Florida at Ole
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  Speaker 1: Miss and Missouri. Kentucky plays at Tennessee, Florida, and Missouri.
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  Speaker 1: So you figure both of those teams could lose one
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  Speaker 1: more game, lose one of those games each, and still
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  Speaker 1: be comfortably in the playoff. So the worst case scenario
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  Speaker 1: for Ohio State to me, Tony, would be Georgia loses
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  Speaker 1: to Ole Miss, because then Ole Miss does not have
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  Speaker 1: any more games like that. So if Ole Miss beats
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  Speaker 1: Georgia and wins out, They're in, you would assume, with
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  Speaker 1: two losses. Georgia would be in with two losses. Kentucky,
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  Speaker 1: if they lose to Tennessee, but they beat Florida and
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  Speaker 1: beat Missouri, then Tennessee would be, if they beat Kentucky
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  Speaker 1: and they beat LSU, they went out. You would have Georgia, Kentucky,
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  Speaker 1: Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Sorry, this is very confusing. All
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  Speaker 1: those teams in, and then Alabama, they just have to
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  Speaker 1: play LSU. and Texas. They have to play at Mizzou
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  Speaker 1: and at LSU. So if LSU falls apart, then you
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  Speaker 1: could have Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Georgia, and Kentucky.
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  Speaker 1: That is the most six, mathematically, the most SEC teams
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  Speaker 1: that could have two or fewer losses going into the
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  Speaker 1: college football playoff, which that would be the worst case
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  Speaker 1: possible scenario for Ohio State at this point. But that
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  Speaker 1: requires exactly this set of results. And As we've seen
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  Speaker 1: so far this year, you're not getting a lot of
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  Speaker 1: the exact specific results that you're expecting.
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  Speaker 2: Well, and you've got, not this coming week, but the
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  Speaker 2: week after, Alabama at LSU will kind of get this
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  Speaker 2: ball rolling in terms of, okay, well, which of those
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  Speaker 2: two teams will now collapse or will pack it up?
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  Speaker 2: And I tend to think LSU's got a pretty good
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  Speaker 2: chance to run the table with their schedule. And it's
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  Speaker 2: not easy, but I could see them finishing with two losses.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think Alabama is the way they played having
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  Speaker 2: lost two of three and struggling a little bit with
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  Speaker 2: Texas A & M. Like, yes, they have at LSU,
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  Speaker 2: then at Vanderbilt, then Chattanooga, and then Auburn. Like if
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  Speaker 2: they beat LSU, they, they should, Tom should be fine.
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  Speaker 2: But also do you remember, it wasn't that long ago,
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  Speaker 2: Auburn went into Georgia somehow and came away with a
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  Speaker 2: win there. So this whole exercise of trying to project
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  Speaker 2: it's great and, But it doesn't factor in. We're only
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  Speaker 2: talking about they could lose to this good team, this
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  Speaker 2: really good team. They could lose to this. And then
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  Speaker 2: they're like, by God, there's Auburn's music.
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  Speaker 1: And it's like, well, I was not.
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  Speaker 2: Planning for that.
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  Speaker 1: No, definitely not. And right now, there are so many
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  Speaker 1: teams that could just help out Ohio State just a
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  Speaker 1: little bit and not just Ohio State, help out everyone
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  Speaker 1: else who's a playoff contender. Missouri, for example, plays Texas
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  Speaker 1: at Georgia and Kentucky. Now, in this, we're projecting them
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  Speaker 1: to lose all three of those games. If they win one, well,
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  Speaker 1: that's another loss for someone. But if they pick up
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  Speaker 1: one more loss, then they'll have three losses. Florida, they
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  Speaker 1: have Georgia and then at Kentucky. If they just split
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  Speaker 1: those two, that would give one of those other teams
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  Speaker 1: a third loss, either Georgia or Kentucky in this scenario
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  Speaker 1: that we're talking about here. LSU, get ready to root
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  Speaker 1: for Lane Kiffin, potentially. They have Alabama, they have Texas,
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  Speaker 1: they have at Tennessee. If they lose out, that would
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  Speaker 1: be probably bad for Ohio State and everyone else in
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  Speaker 1: the playoff picture. If they win one or two of
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  Speaker 1: those games, they could go two and one in there,
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  Speaker 1: finish nine and three, be at least on the fringes
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  Speaker 1: of the playoff, if not out, but still also be
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  Speaker 1: doing a tremendous amount of work for a lot of
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  Speaker 1: the other playoff contenders. But here's the thing. You're having
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  Speaker 1: this conversation about the SEC. You could have this conversation
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  Speaker 1: about any conference you want to, because you go through
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  Speaker 1: the Big Ten schedule, you can very easily say, well,
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  Speaker 1: you know, You could give Ohio State a loss in
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  Speaker 1: any of their five remaining regular season games. You could
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  Speaker 1: give Ohio State a win in any of their five
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  Speaker 1: remaining regular season games. But this is a year where
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  Speaker 1: it feels like, boy, Minnesota is going to have an
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  Speaker 1: outsized influence on which teams potentially get into the college
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  Speaker 1: football playoffs. Because right now, Wisconsin has two losses. Wisconsin
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  Speaker 1: has a winnable game. Everything on Wisconsin's schedule moving out
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  Speaker 1: is a winnable game. But Minnesota has two losses. Pretty
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  Speaker 1: much everything on Minnesota's schedule on the way out is
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  Speaker 1: a winnable game. Iowa has two losses. Pretty much everything
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  Speaker 1: on Iowa's schedule. Not everyone's going to win these games,
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  Speaker 1: but someone has to win these games. Someone has to
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  Speaker 1: lose these games. I know that everyone is sure that
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  Speaker 1: college football is absolutely killing itself, but man, this has
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  Speaker 1: been one of the craziest and most unpredictable seasons I
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  Speaker 1: can remember.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and to talk about Wisconsin real quick, They're at
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  Speaker 2: Iowa this coming weekend. If they win that, they've got
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  Speaker 2: Rutgers at Maryland, at Purdue, and Minnesota. Now, Minnesota has
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  Speaker 2: won all of their trophy games this season, so don't
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  Speaker 2: overlook them in this, but this is a very winnable
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  Speaker 2: slate if they can get past Iowa. And really, boy,
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  Speaker 2: this is almost an elimination game this week with Wisconsin
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  Speaker 2: and Iowa, given that they both have two losses, and
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  Speaker 2: if they stay at two losses, then you would expect
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  Speaker 2: that they've got a pretty good chance to get in.
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  Speaker 2: So a very big game in the Big 10 this
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  Speaker 2: weekend aside from the ohio state usc but yeah man
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  Speaker 2: uh trying to project this stuff and then not factoring
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  Speaker 2: in the the crazy upsets because like you know they're
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  Speaker 2: gonna happen but which ones you're gonna pick i'm not
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  Speaker 2: picking any of them i'm not that dumb like i'm
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  Speaker 2: just gonna put you i'm look There's no way Auburn
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  Speaker 2: is going into Georgia and beating Georgia. And then they do.
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  Speaker 2: And so who knows? Like somebody goes into Lexington and
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  Speaker 2: upsets Kentucky and Lexington, which is not something that gets
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  Speaker 2: said all the time. But there are going to be
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  Speaker 2: some really, I think, rough losses the rest of the
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  Speaker 2: way out for some SEC teams, which means that they
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  Speaker 2: have to win those big games to stay above the water.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah. And you're seeing teams, you know, BYU last week,
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  Speaker 1: gets an enormous win over Notre Dame, one of the
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  Speaker 1: biggest wins in the last couple decades of BYU history.
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  Speaker 1: And what do they do? They go on the road
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  Speaker 1: to UCF and then immediately lose. And so right now,
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  Speaker 1: look at the Big 12. You would assume a two-loss
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  Speaker 1: Big 12 team is probably going to be below some three-loss,
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  Speaker 1: or at least in the conversation with some three-loss Big
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  Speaker 1: 10 and SEC teams. The most teams in the big
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  Speaker 1: 12 right now after all the upsets that we've seen
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  Speaker 1: that could finish with zero or one losses is two
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  Speaker 1: and that would require like a very specific thing and
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  Speaker 1: that's just the end of the regular season that's not
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  Speaker 1: including the big 12 championship game so yeah there is
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  Speaker 1: there is a lot of chaos still to come we're
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  Speaker 1: going to try and break this all down for you
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  Speaker 1: at buckeyeinsiders.com this is going to be a this is
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  Speaker 1: an immensely complicated thing and it gets a little easier
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  Speaker 1: as you sort of get some of the variables get
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  Speaker 1: turned into we know what this result is now but
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  Speaker 1: It is an immensely complicated last month or so of
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  Speaker 1: the regular season, and then it's time for the postseason,
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  Speaker 1: when I'm sure everything will go great and everything will
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  Speaker 1: go exactly according to everyone's plan. So we would love
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  Speaker 1: to talk about all this with you at BuckeyeInsiders.com. That's
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: where we've got our whole team covering the Buckeyes, ready
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: to head out to L.A. for this weekend's game between
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: the Buckeyes and the Trojans. But it's been a busy
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: week of recruiting. Juck's been on that. Start of basketball
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  Speaker 1: season is a week away. Marcus has been on that.
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  Speaker 1: We've got our scheme insiders. Coming up this week, got
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  Speaker 1: a couple of those shows coming up for you the
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  Speaker 1: next couple of days as well. So going to be
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  Speaker 1: a ton to talk about. We would love to talk
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  Speaker 1: about it with you all at BuckeyeInsiders.com. Thanks again to
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: our friends at Jeff Ruby's at Columbus, the award-winning upscale
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  Speaker 1: slash Columbus to check out the menu and make a
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  Speaker 1: reservation today. That will do it for today. Thank you
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: guys all for joining us. Have a great day. We'll
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  Speaker 1: talk to you tomorrow.