Latest / Simply Bitcoin / SHOCKING: Did America JUST DUMP 170,000 Bitcoin?! | EP 1290

Transcript

SHOCKING: Did America JUST DUMP 170,000 Bitcoin?! | EP 1290 · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
So most people are really surprised that the price of
0:03
Bitcoin has not been pumping. But today we might have found
0:08
out the reason why Bitcoin is still stuck at $120,000 per coin
0:15
despite all of the billionaires, nation states, hedge funds all
0:20
buying Bitcoin. And guess what?
0:21
We're not actually talking about paper Bitcoin.
0:25
Today we have a new investigation that is alleging
0:31
that America, a country we used to think was the biggest holder
0:35
of Bitcoin, actually holds 85% less Bitcoin than what we have
0:43
publicly thought. I know it sounds crazy, but
0:46
today we have a little bit of a rabbit hole to dive into.
0:49
Most people think that America's holding about 210, 1000 coins,
0:54
but you guys can see what Senator Cynthia Lummers just
0:58
tweeted earlier today. She openly said, wait on a
1:03
minute. I'm alarmed by reports that the
1:06
US has sold off 80% of its Bitcoin reserves, leaving just
1:13
29,000 Bitcoin. We've got a little bit of a deep
1:17
rabbit hole to dive into today and of course, I'm joined by
1:21
Sophie to expose what is actually happening with
1:25
America's reserves of Bitcoin. Sophie, I want to pass it off to
1:29
you. What are your first impressions?
1:31
What were your first thoughts after we started diving down
1:35
this new investigation this morning?
1:37
I mean, to be honest, it kind of started to put all of the pieces
1:42
together in my head, right? We've been saying for a long
1:46
time, are these institutions that are claiming to have ETFs
1:50
even, you know, telling the truth about how much Bitcoin
1:53
they have? And it never occurred to me that
1:57
our own government, who lies to us all the time, would actually
2:02
be the culprit of that very thing.
2:05
So, you know, it's not surprising to me at all, but it
2:08
is a little bit alarming. It actually begs more questions
2:13
than answers. And so now I'm more curious.
2:17
I want to go further down this rabbit hole.
2:20
Who sold the Bitcoin? Did we really sell the Bitcoin?
2:23
Is that Bitcoin in the custody of other institutions?
2:28
Are we gonna actually buy more Bitcoin to catch up with China?
2:32
Now that is the bigger question and and those are this is just
2:37
like the tip of the iceberg. And you know, we want to give
2:39
credit to Lola leads for spearheading this investigation.
2:45
She did an absolutely phenomenal job putting in the proof of
2:50
work, getting the FOIA request. I think that, you know, this is
2:53
like so patriotic. I think because of her, this
2:57
administration may be pushed to the edge in saying that, you
3:00
know, that thing that we said before where we weren't going to
3:04
buy new Bitcoin. I think we're going to have to
3:07
walk that back and I think we're going to actually have to buy
3:11
massive amounts of Bitcoin. Well, that is actually, this is
3:14
the thing that I think is getting lost right now in this
3:17
discussion. Again, this new investigation,
3:19
it's a little bit of a bombshell.
3:20
It's huge. We're going to break it all down
3:22
for you guys. But if the worst case scenario
3:24
is true, again, we still don't know exactly what is true.
3:30
All we do know is that the US Marshals is only holding
3:33
something like 27,000 points. If we assume that America has
3:38
sold about 170,000 coins, well then we need to kind of like
3:43
step back and think for a minute.
3:44
Hang on a minute. This is bullish for two reasons.
3:46
One, price is still at $120,000 a coin despite an enormous
3:52
amount of selling, and two, like you just said.
3:55
So if America's probably going to want to buy more Bitcoin than
3:58
China, and if we're stuck with only 2729 thousand odd coins, do
4:03
we really think that Donald Trump isn't going to want to buy
4:06
another 150 or 200,000 coins? I think those are some questions
4:10
we're going to explore today. But you mentioned it, you
4:13
mentioned the report done by Lola.
4:15
Let's dive into it and let's take a little bit of look at
4:17
what she found. So this is a little bit of an
4:20
investigation. And the summary is this.
4:23
You can see the expensive research.
4:25
She went to have a look at all of these pages and pages and
4:29
pages of reports that she was able to dig up and she came to
4:34
this conclusion. The full list of Bitcoin
4:37
holdings is 28,000 Bitcoin, so today that's at about $3.44
4:46
billion, the current price of Bitcoin.
4:49
She said that the US Marshall service liquidates assets in
4:53
public auctions, so unless they announce the sale, this list
4:58
should be accurate. So again, if they're going to
5:00
sell anything, they have to do it publicly.
5:03
And Lola says if you want to pay another $10,000, I can Google
5:09
that. So what is Lola referring to?
5:11
Well, David Bailey actually put a bounty out there.
5:14
He wanted to know how much Bitcoin America actually held.
5:19
And it was Lola who did all of the investigations, all of the
5:23
research, and she was the one who came up with this pretty
5:27
shocking report that right now is getting circulated everywhere
5:32
all over Twitter. What are your thoughts on this
5:34
tweet here? So coming from Cynthia Lummus.
5:39
I think she's jumping the gun maybe a little bit.
5:42
I mean, I hope that she's jumping the gun because if she's
5:47
saying that the US actually sold off 80% of the Bitcoin, I mean,
5:54
Yikes. That's that's like your
5:56
grandparents auctioning off your inheritance.
5:59
Like I'm going to be super pissed, grandma, that that's
6:03
just going to like be not great news for the US And I love what
6:10
somebody put here. Minimax minimalism.
6:14
I don't know, Said can we just start printing and buying
6:17
already? For the love of God, seriously,
6:20
can we just run that money printer if we're doing it to
6:24
fund wars and fund all of these corrupt politicians?
6:29
Like why can't we just use it to buy the most scarce asset and
6:33
start backing our economy with the hardest asset that the world
6:38
has ever known? It doesn't.
6:40
It doesn't really make sense. It's only a matter of time
6:45
before that happens. Like we all know what the end
6:48
game here is like. If America really is only
6:51
sitting on 27,000 Bitcoin, as we might dive into a little bit
6:56
more in a second, like they're gonna have to, they're gonna
6:59
have to buy more Bitcoin. It's kind of, it's the, it's the
7:03
ultimate conclusion. And we haven't finished talking
7:06
about this American story. Yeah, but again, every country
7:10
who dumps Bitcoin or sells Bitcoin too soon, they always
7:16
get shown a pretty valuable lesson, a hurtful lesson.
7:20
We can see Germany dumping $2.8 billion of Bitcoin earlier in
7:25
the year. What happened to them?
7:27
Well, they lost out on hundreds of millions, if not billions of
7:31
dollars worth of money because they sold Bitcoin too soon.
7:34
We can see here the German government lost $3.1 billion of
7:39
profit after selling Bitcoin at $54,000 a coin again today.
7:45
Listening, right? Damn I thought, I thought it was
7:50
at the prophetic 58,000. I was even willing to give them
7:53
a little closer to 60,000 but 50 foot wrecked.
7:58
Wrecked, absolutely wrecked. And again today we're at about
8:02
$118,000 a coin. And when you zoom out, you can
8:06
really see how, let's say, painful.
8:09
That sale from the German government recently must be
8:14
beginning to kind of appear because again, 3, $1,000,000,
8:19
that's not an inconsequential amount of money.
8:21
That is a ton of money. When you kind of zoom out, you
8:25
can kind of see they were kind of the sacrifice for that next
8:28
leg up that we saw in Bitcoin. They kind of paper handed the
8:32
bottom here. It's 50, five, $58,000 a coin.
8:37
It doesn't matter what price they sold, but it was the bottom
8:39
and we moved up much higher afterwards.
8:42
Again, has America just made that same sacrifice?
8:45
If they have, again, we don't know.
8:47
But if they have gone out there and sold 170,000 Bitcoin, I
8:53
think they're going to be taught a very painful lesson when
8:56
Bitcoin continues to do what Bitcoin does, and that is move
8:59
up and to the right forever. I mean, I'm not saying that they
9:03
did it for malicious reasons, but it can't be for good
9:07
reasons, right? I mean, we're, we're learning
9:10
about so much corruption in government right now.
9:12
We're about to potentially go to war with Iran, if not, if we're
9:17
not already at war with them. I mean, there's, there's so many
9:20
things happening around the world that, you know, who's to
9:24
know why they moved these, these, this Bitcoin I, it makes
9:29
again, it, it leaves more questions than answers up in the
9:33
air. And I want netizens to dig even
9:39
further. I want Bitcoiners to dig even
9:41
further. What did they do with our
9:43
country's corn? And like, you know, there is,
9:46
there is kind of like a controversy, like it's not
9:48
really ours. We didn't buy it.
9:49
It was seized. It was forfeited.
9:52
And that's, that is definitely like a controversy.
9:55
It's a conversation that is totally valid.
9:58
And you know, I think, I think that we should personally be
10:00
buying it more. But the point is it's not an R,
10:05
it's not an R reserve anymore. And that's that's something that
10:10
people should be absolutely concerned about.
10:13
Absolutely. So let's kind of breakdown this
10:15
report in a little bit more detail.
10:17
We can see here US Marshall service holds just 28,000
10:22
Bitcoin far less than expected. Is that the freedom for what is
10:28
that one Sophie? Is that the freedom for
10:30
information or I don't know what an.
10:33
Yes, Freedom of Information Act. So for those of our listeners
10:37
who are not American, this is a request that any American can
10:41
put into our government so that you get full quote, UN quote,
10:46
transparency from the US government, quote, UN quote
10:50
sometimes. That's right.
10:54
Sometimes that request might be denied but sometimes you get
10:59
lucky and and you know, Lola Leeds again did a really, really
11:01
great job. Yeah, her report absolutely
11:04
crushed it. We can see it's actually been
11:06
confirmed by multiple people. So we can see somebody else on
11:09
Twitter. A new and on chain analyst, Sani
11:13
XP clarifies that the US government, well, this person's
11:17
claiming that the US government controls the UTXOS for 200,000
11:21
Bitcoin. But the 29,000 Bitcoin reported
11:25
by the US Marshals are only forfeited coins, excluding
11:30
confiscated Bitcoin held by agencies like the FBI and the
11:35
IRS. So again, this is a little bit
11:37
of the the caveat to the confusion that we're seeing
11:40
right now on Twitter. Lola, the person who ran the
11:43
report, she kind of wrote this summary tweet that I want to
11:47
kind of break down here. She says all right guys, since
11:50
we now all have our panties in a jumble over the US government
11:53
selling their Bitcoin, I'd like to alert you to the fact that
11:57
there is a difference between seized assets and forfeited
12:01
assets at the very bottom of this tweet, she says.
12:04
So this doesn't mean that the US government has sold any Bitcoin,
12:09
It just means that whatever the US Treasury sites estimate is
12:14
likely wrong as they don't seem to differentiate between seized
12:20
and forfeited Bitcoin. So.
12:23
Actually, that makes me wonder, you know, are we the only ones?
12:28
Is China lying as well? What other countries are lying
12:31
about how much Bitcoin they have or have bought or not bought?
12:37
Kind of makes you wonder. That is a very interesting
12:41
rabbit hole because again, we all know that governments and
12:45
countries do publicly announce how much Bitcoin they hold.
12:48
We can see America used to, well who knows, they could still hold
12:53
207,000 Bitcoin. This is the number that is are
12:57
very publicly available and for some time we've known that China
13:01
is the #2 in this kind of two dog race, 2 horse race, so to
13:07
say, American China is supposed to be the number one and two by
13:10
a long margin. Then you kind of see a big drop
13:13
off to the UK with 61,000 Bitcoin and then of course, the
13:17
Ukraine's got 46,000 Bitcoin. There's some rabbit holes
13:20
attached to that number. But again, it does, it does make
13:24
you ask the question, you know, what can we actually trust
13:28
publicly? Like who actually knows what's
13:31
happening? What I do think is interesting,
13:33
you kind of brought this up before we went live, Sophie.
13:36
El Salvador does actually publish its addresses of the
13:39
Bitcoin that they hold publicly, which is again, very different.
13:43
Maybe this is the standard for the future.
13:46
Governments will publicly put out the addresses that they hold
13:50
and announce how much Bitcoin they've hold.
13:52
Right now, El Salvador is supposed to be holding 6200
13:56
coins. And as we can see, they've been
13:58
buying a Bitcoin a day for some time now, and they are sitting
14:02
on a ton of profit. I believe that's that green
14:05
number there, $739 million worth of profit for El Salvador.
14:12
And again, this is a tiny country.
14:14
For them to be sitting on $700 million of profit just from
14:18
their Bitcoin holdings, this is kind of a huge deal when we
14:22
really start to think about it and.
14:24
Again, you can see the proof in their country.
14:27
You can see the proof of funds literally manifesting themselves
14:33
in how the country has grown. They went from being the most
14:36
dangerous country in, in America, in like the Americas to
14:42
being one of the safest. So like, I think that it's not a
14:46
coincidence. People will say like, you know,
14:48
it's no, it's because he was authoritative.
14:50
It's because whatever. No, it's also because you've
14:52
changed. You fixed your money.
14:54
And so imagine if the US, you know, had all of the Bitcoin
14:59
that they said it did, like how much better of a country we
15:02
would be. We would have better
15:03
infrastructure, better schools, better healthcare.
15:07
I feel like so many of the things that these politicians
15:10
run on, they don't realize how it will be fixed if you if you
15:16
fix the money. But then again, if you fix the
15:19
money, if you start fixing too many things, then you know, what
15:23
do you need the politicians for? And that's, that's kind of like
15:26
the final end of the question here, right?
15:29
There you go. That's the rabbit hole that most
15:31
politicians don't want to be faced with.
15:33
If you do fix too many things, all of a sudden there's no
15:36
problems for you to highlight in the mainstream media.
15:39
You know, political campaigns that we do see every four years.
15:43
I, I think it's a great point you've made, Sophie.
15:46
El Salvador has been absolutely transformed.
15:49
It's actually safer than America in 2023.
15:53
And you can see how violently that blue line just dropped.
15:57
That is El Salvador's homicide rates per 100,000 people that
16:01
crated. El Salvador was safer than
16:04
America in 2023. And yeah, I also don't think
16:07
it's a coincidence. You take the theft out of money,
16:11
you also take the theft off the streets and you clean up the
16:15
streets and all of a sudden you can radically transform a
16:18
country. It's, it's obviously, you know,
16:23
This is why we Bitcoin, we Bitcoin because it is going to
16:28
potentially create a, a much nicer world, a safer world and a
16:33
world that I think is just better for everybody on the
16:35
planet. This is again, the big thing
16:37
that I think gets lost in the debates of, you know, Bitcoin
16:40
versus real estate. We're living in this massive
16:43
real estate bubble. It's enabled not only
16:45
governments but the households to take on so much debt over the
16:49
past 30-40 fifty years as interest rates have been lowered
16:53
every recession. But again, like there's negative
16:56
consequences of blowing up this real estate bubble.
16:59
All of a sudden the everyday person can't afford to buy a
17:02
home. In my generation, we're screwed.
17:05
We can't buy a home. It's completely different.
17:07
It's completely unaffordable. In Sydney, the average home
17:10
costs 21 times the average person's income.
17:13
It's insane. But of course, if Bitcoin
17:17
becomes the next big asset that people store their value in, all
17:22
of a sudden this will hypothetically make real estate
17:26
more affordable. If we start draining some of
17:28
that monetary premium out of the real estate market and putting
17:32
it into Bitcoin again, Bitcoin is going to create a better
17:36
future. And hey, we're just here for
17:37
that. It's pretty exciting along the
17:38
way. Yeah, I I just want to.
17:43
I just want to see more answers this is this is crazy and also I
17:49
want to know why who started that?
17:52
Like who said, who claimed that the US was holding 200,000
17:56
Bitcoin in the 1st place? And why wouldn't other, you
18:02
know, if, if it is being held by the FBI, if it is being held by
18:06
the DEA, if it is being held by like all of these other
18:09
government entities, why wouldn't they just come out and
18:12
be like, no, actually like here's our wallet.
18:15
And it's because these governments aren't used to
18:17
working in transparency. They're the authority over all
18:21
of us, but they're not used to working in this new transparent
18:26
world. Even though we've had the
18:27
Internet for over like 30 years now, you know, they, they still
18:32
don't get it. They still think that they can
18:34
get away with lying to people. And the reality is that that is
18:39
very quickly going away thanks to the Internet 1st and, you
18:44
know, Bitcoin second. Yeah.
18:46
I mean, the faster we see the number go up that we're right
18:50
now pretty blessed with, the faster.
18:52
I think to your point, Sophie, this is going to force
18:54
transparency on governments on a Bitcoin standard.
18:58
I think it's going to be much more difficult to steal from
19:01
your citizens. It's going to be much more
19:02
difficult to send money all around the world and fund all
19:06
sorts of different campaigns that probably the taxpayers are
19:10
not a fan of their tax paying dollars going toward and
19:14
funding. And I think hopefully this whole
19:18
event surrounding the US government, which again is
19:21
fresh, it's only really emerged in the past few hours.
19:24
We don't have all of the answers yet, but it is a story that I
19:28
think kind of shines that light on the fact that Bitcoin is
19:32
going to force these governments to be transparent.
19:35
And I think in the not too distant future, we're going to
19:38
be living in a world where everybody's looking around at
19:41
each other and they're like, oh, hang on a minute.
19:43
We are now going to have to be forced to be transparent.
19:47
And that is all because of Bitcoin and what Bitcoin is
19:50
doing and how quickly the amount of Bitcoin available for sale is
19:55
kind of cratering and falling off a rock because again,
19:59
something we've got to entertain here.
20:00
So if is. All right, America might only
20:03
hold 27,000 Bitcoin again, We don't know yet.
20:06
It's still early days. We're going to see what's
20:09
happening. We don't have confirmation.
20:11
I think it's concerning that we have senators openly saying,
20:15
look, this is just leaving us with 29,000 Bitcoin.
20:18
What happened to the other 85%? But if that Bitcoin is gone and
20:23
if America does not hold Bitcoin, and if countries like
20:26
even Kazakhstan is talking about creating national reserves in
20:30
Bitcoin, what's going to have to happen?
20:32
Well, America's going to have to start bidding in the open market
20:35
for Bitcoin. They've already announced that
20:38
they want to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve and if they are
20:41
sitting on as few a Bitcoin as we might have uncovered today,
20:45
then they're going to have to start bidding on the exchanges
20:47
for Bitcoin. We do know that there's only 2.4
20:50
million Bitcoin on the exchanges today.
20:53
This number is dropping like a rock.
20:55
There's about 80,000 coins leaving the exchanges nearly
20:59
every month at this stage. And again, we also know that the
21:04
Bitcoin OTC desks are also seeing a little bit of a supply
21:10
crisis as well Right now. I believe the last time we
21:13
checked in on this number, there's only about 150,000
21:17
Bitcoin on the OTC desks. Meaning that if America wants to
21:22
actually buy more Bitcoin than China, that means that they
21:28
would nearly clear the entire OTC desks of all of the supply
21:32
that they hold. Because again, there's only
21:34
about 156,000 Bitcoin on the OTC desks available for sale.
21:39
So again, we're going to talk about this more a little bit
21:42
later on in the show. Sophie, I don't want to give
21:44
away too much of the secret sauce and all of the bullishness
21:47
just yet for all of you guys tuning in live.
21:50
But I just think the take away from this story, despite it
21:53
being young, despite it being early, despite it being fresh, I
21:57
think it's bullish either way you look at it.
21:59
That's my take, Soph. Yeah, no, that's, that's an
22:02
excellent take, Luke. OK, so before we move on to the
22:06
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Bitcoin market capitalization is 2.36 trillion dollars.
26:12
We are today 3.5% away from our all time high price of 123,000
26:19
coins. I think we're super close again.
26:22
This is again one of my favorite numbers. 94.73% of all of the
26:28
Bitcoin has already been mined today.
26:32
That means there is only 5.27%, if my quick maths is correct,
26:38
left of the entire 21 million Bitcoin supply left to be mined.
26:43
And that's going to be coming out over the next 115 years.
26:48
So we always talk about like this supply shock and how, you
26:53
know, Bitcoin is so scarce. But I think most people just
26:56
don't understand just how scarce Bitcoin is because when you
27:00
crunch the numbers, it's kind of crazy how much of the Bitcoin
27:04
supply has already been mined. We're pretty much again at 95%.
27:11
I'll I'll show you guys you, you guys love the dashboard, but I'm
27:14
sure you'll love a chart even more in the gold.
27:18
This is looking at the Bitcoin supply and you can see right now
27:21
we are approaching an Asimoto of 21 million coins where we're
27:27
about here on the chart 2020, 595% of the supply is gone and
27:32
have a look at the inflation rate that's in the red.
27:35
You can see bitcoins inflation rate.
27:36
They're stepping down every four years.
27:40
Bitcoins inflation rate, it's approaching 0.
27:43
It is perfect money. It is ideal money as John Nash
27:47
has been talking about and presenting about and writing
27:51
about since the 1990s. We won't get into the John Nash
27:55
rabbit hole just yet, but I think again, Bitcoin, we are
27:59
getting more and more scarce by the day.
28:01
I think some people think we're exaggerating when we say how
28:04
little Bitcoin there is left, but hey, 5.27% of 21 million
28:10
coins left to be mined. I don't think anyone's bullish
28:13
enough. So if that's just my.
28:14
Thoughts. I'm, I'm convinced, look, I
28:16
think that the governments and big institutions, their next
28:21
SIOP is going to be getting people to sell them their
28:24
Bitcoin. And you don't want to do it,
28:27
don't do it. They're going to not be able to
28:30
physically be able to buy more Bitcoin.
28:34
So what are they going to do? They're going to say, hey, sell
28:37
us your Bitcoin. We, if you sell us your Bitcoin,
28:41
we won't charge you that capital gains tax.
28:45
If you sell us your Bitcoin, we will, you know, give you XY and
28:50
Z. We'll promise you the moon and
28:51
the stars. Because somebody has to
28:53
understand this, right at some point.
28:56
It's not like, you know, a complicated logic here.
29:02
You know, if you have a scarce asset that is, is, you know,
29:07
completely finite, it's only going to gain more value over
29:11
time. And so as soon as that starts
29:14
clicking for people, as as soon as it starts clocking, as Justin
29:18
Bieber said the other day, you know, then their incentives are
29:22
going to be to take your Bitcoin.
29:23
So you should be very mindful of that.
29:26
Absolutely it is. That's also a great point and
29:28
this kind of brings up a little rabbit hole that I mentioned
29:32
earlier on in the show. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were
29:36
ordered to consider crypto. Again, forget The Dirty word.
29:40
Let's focus on the real crypto asset that's Bitcoin and they
29:44
were forced to consider Bitcoin as an asset when buying
29:48
mortgages. Now, again, when you look at
29:50
this news on the face surface of things, right, this is
29:54
incredibly bullish, right? Oh, I can buy a home with my
29:57
Bitcoin. But again, what I think got lost
30:00
in this announcement that came out recently was that to get
30:04
mortgage with your Bitcoin, you had to put your Bitcoin on a
30:08
centralized exchange. And again, that just kind of
30:11
goes to your point, Sophie, they're going to dangle that
30:14
carrot in front of you guys. And what they're going to do is
30:18
I think they're going to come after the Bitcoin.
30:20
We can see here this is another website breaking down how the
30:23
FHFA ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest
30:28
mortgage issuers in America. Mind you, to literally start
30:33
accepting Bitcoin now we Scroll down here have a look at this.
30:36
This is the this is a little bit of information that I think gets
30:40
lost in the bullish headline. Wait, wait, do they have to
30:43
accept Bitcoin as payments or do they have to consider it as part
30:47
of your assets now when they're giving you a loan?
30:52
Because because if they have to consider it now, I mean, you
30:55
have no idea how many people our age or trying to buy a house or
31:00
even just getting a car loan. I mean, when I tried to get a
31:03
car loan one it was impossible. I got denied and I have great
31:07
credit score and and it just it was because they don't they
31:10
didn't consider Bitcoin as part of our assets.
31:14
And so it's, you know, if they are ordered to have to start
31:20
considering that, that is a major win for a lot of people
31:24
our age who are just trying to get by, who are just trying to
31:27
buy a home, who are just trying to like become people, right?
31:30
Like they always blame millennials.
31:33
You know, you guys got to grow up and like pick yourself up by
31:36
your bootstraps. But it's like, how can we like
31:38
the system is designed to be completely against us.
31:41
And so this is a step forward in making that that system be more
31:48
malleable towards people our age.
31:52
Exactly, that is a great point. I, I'm going to dive into that
31:54
rabbit hole in a minute of like there's a narrative in
31:57
Australia. So a lot of people think that
32:01
the millennials just complain for the sake of complaining.
32:04
Like the millennials are just complaining that housing is
32:07
unaffordable because we're spending all of our money on
32:09
avocado on toast. And I think you opened up an
32:12
interesting point there. It's more the cost of living.
32:15
We'll get there in a moment, but this is the breakdown here.
32:17
So Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were ordered to prepare a
32:22
proposal for consideration of crypto as an asset for reserves
32:27
when they assess risk in single family home loans.
32:31
So we can see that William Boots has instructed the agencies that
32:37
their mortgage risk assessments should not require
32:41
cryptocurrency assets to be converted into U.S. dollars.
32:45
But here's the kick up. Only crypto assets that can be
32:48
evidenced and stored on AUS regulated centralized exchange
32:53
are subject to all applicable laws.
32:56
So it is by the looks of things is is this for the down payment?
33:00
You can use the Bitcoin for the the down payment for the loan.
33:03
That's what I kind of got from reading that little article.
33:06
I wonder if there's tax implications for that.
33:08
I somebody's like, you haven't done any research on this.
33:11
I haven't done any research on this.
33:14
I, I admit, but I did read this headline and, you know, a couple
33:18
of tweets here and there, but that like, if you can use
33:23
Bitcoin to put the down payment, I mean, that would be great as
33:26
long as there's no tax implications for it.
33:30
I think my read into it is, and again, I've done probably about
33:34
this much research into it, not a whole lot, but I think my read
33:38
of it is you don't have to sell the Bitcoin by the looks of
33:41
things, but you do have to put it on a centralized Bitcoin
33:45
exchange, which again, while we're watching the number of
33:48
Bitcoin on exchanges look like this, it's evaporating and
33:51
dropping like a rock. That's kind of just where I pop
33:54
my kind of a tinfoil hat on and I start kind of scratching my
33:58
head and I start thinking really, why do they want to put
34:01
my Bitcoin on the exchange when the number.
34:03
Because. Because they want your Bitcoin
34:06
there. You go everybody, everybody
34:10
wants our Bitcoin. And again, I think I mentioned
34:13
this a moment ago as well, like there's this narrative that
34:17
millennials are just lazy and you know, we should pull it out,
34:21
pull our finger out of the wazoo and actually start working.
34:25
But again, if you actually have a look at the price of houses
34:28
over the past 40 years, it's pretty clear that there is a
34:32
very clear divergent between the average income and the average
34:37
cost of a home. So the average average cost of a
34:39
home is on this blue line and the average incomes at the
34:43
bottom. The orange line we can see back
34:47
in 1985 the average home used to cost 3.6 X the average income.
34:54
So it looks as if the average home was about $100,000, which
34:57
means the average income was probably about $30,000.
35:00
Today, that gap has absolutely widened.
35:04
We're now at 5.3 X. So the average home costs five
35:09
times the average person's income, which is just kind of
35:12
insane when you think about it. And I, I think this is also a
35:15
very generous look at the numbers and the statistics.
35:19
I ran the numbers in a video recently.
35:21
LA was something like 8 times the average person's income.
35:25
That's what the average house cost.
35:27
And in my home country, Melbourne, one of the capital
35:31
cities, one of that has like a 16X.
35:35
So the average house is 16 times the average income and in Sydney
35:39
it's 21 X. So the average home's like 2.1
35:43
million and the average income's like around 100,000 Australian
35:47
cut bucks. So again, I think it's pretty
35:50
clear the world, it's just getting more and more expensive.
35:53
And I think Bitcoin is the only solution.
35:57
And as we're going to dive into in a moment, Sophie, we saw a
36:01
really interesting debate between a famous short seller,
36:05
Jim Chanos, and a Bitcoiner, Pierre Rashad.
36:08
And it looks as if even Grok say AI is starting to come to the
36:13
realization that Bitcoin is also the only answer.
36:17
We're going to get there in a moment.
36:18
I don't want to give too much away too soon, Sophie.
36:22
I want your final thoughts on this kind of idea of housing
36:25
affordability before we move on. I mean, I see this as the
36:29
government making amends for printing all of that money in
36:33
2020-2021. If you go back to your chart,
36:37
you'll see like there's just like this steep incline, right
36:41
when COVID happened. And it's because they printed
36:45
all that money, the price of homes just like doubled.
36:48
And so it made it completely unfeasible for anybody to like
36:54
really afford a home. And this is the first time that
36:59
people who, you know, likely younger people now actually have
37:04
a fighting chance to be able to afford a home again.
37:08
And I think that the more institutions dip their feet into
37:13
Bitcoin and see the results over 4 to 8 years, the more they're
37:17
going to be shifting over their business models.
37:20
I mean, look at all of these Bitcoin strategic reserve
37:24
companies that are coming out of the woodwork.
37:26
I mean, strategy at this point, I like saw someone tweet this,
37:30
that strategy actually holds way more Bitcoin than the United
37:33
States government at this point. So as soon as more institutions
37:39
start seeing this, that effect is going to trickle down to
37:43
retail. And when it trickles down to
37:45
retail, it trickles down to people like you and me.
37:48
You're going to see these companies start making pensions
37:51
for for people in Bitcoin. You're going to see people
37:56
getting paid their salary in Bitcoin.
37:58
And then that's going to allow like electric companies and
38:03
water companies, you know, utilities to accept Bitcoin and
38:06
small local governments to accept Bitcoin, even, you know,
38:09
political campaigns to accept Bitcoin.
38:11
And it just kind of like trickles down.
38:14
So this is a very exciting step in hyper bitcoinization and I
38:20
can't wait to see how much further it goes.
38:23
It's going up and to the right forever, Sophie.
38:27
Yes. Forever, which even it looks as
38:32
if the artificial intelligence is coming to that same
38:34
realization that Bitcoin is going up and to the right
38:37
forever. I think this is a great comment.
38:40
Everyone stack Bitcoin and be rich.
38:41
It is very simple. I think it's that simple.
38:45
Yes. All right, before we dive into
38:48
that rabbit hole and that recent debate from the short sellers, I
38:52
think this is a topic hot on everyone's mind because
38:55
obviously it was the short sellers getting burned that
38:59
triggered the Bitcoin melt up from about $110,000 to 123,000.
39:05
I think we're going to talk about that more in a, in the
39:07
culture in a moment, Sophie. Yeah, absolutely.
39:11
All right, guys, let's move on to no the news.
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I'm going to pull that up again, scan the QR code, and let's move
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on to the news. Guess what I saw?
42:18
This is a little bit of Speaking of the news, we are in the news
42:21
segment, Sophie, I saw this pop up literally minutes ago.
42:25
AUS Ambassador to Denmark reports holding $120 million in
42:32
Bitcoin. And this is kind of crazy.
42:34
We've got a new bull in the White House.
42:37
I think this is absolutely huge. And it kind of goes back to the
42:41
point that you mentioned just before we transitioned, Sophie,
42:44
you mentioned all these treasury companies of buying Bitcoin.
42:48
Every day we nearly see a new treasury company.
42:51
I love this website. This is one of my go to
42:54
websites. We can see in the past 30 days,
42:56
that little tiny green number that you guys might not be able
42:59
to read, it says plus 26. We've seen 26 new, whether it's
43:05
governments, public companies or private companies adopt Bitcoin
43:09
in the past month. It's nearly one a day and it's
43:12
kind of insane. It's growing at a pace that I
43:15
think nobody kind of predicted we'd see in 2025.
43:19
And between these massive governments, public companies
43:23
and private companies, we can see collectively they hold 3.53
43:29
million Bitcoin. I think it's absolutely huge and
43:32
it's not slowing down. Yeah, And this is kind of one of
43:36
the insidious ways that I think that these big institutions are
43:40
buying Bitcoin and, and buying it off of you people like you
43:43
and me is because they're betting that, you know, the
43:46
average American is still going to want to bet on the S&P.
43:50
They're still going to want to buy their stocks.
43:52
And So what are they doing? They're pumping their bags,
43:55
giving you Fiat in exchange for buying more Bitcoin.
43:59
It's like their own version of the money printer.
44:03
And so then the cycle continues. And these people are sneaky
44:07
because I see what you're doing. I see what you're doing.
44:09
Michael Saylor. We're watching you guys very
44:13
closely now. Speaking of news, I saw this pop
44:16
out literally 3 minutes ago. So we got an update.
44:20
Says the US House has finished debate on all three crypto
44:26
bills, the Clarity Act, the Genius Act and the anti CBDC
44:31
bill with final votes pending. Senator Bill Haggerty has said
44:35
that this afternoon the House will vote on the Genius Act.
44:39
So of course it's quote UN quote crypto week.
44:43
We're supposed to be finding out a lot of stuff pertaining to
44:47
Bitcoin in America this week. It's just a coincidence that we
44:51
also have that private investigation that we broke down
44:55
for you guys in the first part of today's show, kind of looking
44:59
at how much Bitcoin does America really hold.
45:03
Again, if you guys join late, this is a live show, but you can
45:06
rewind the show and check it out after the fact.
45:08
But it looks as if there is a lot of bullish news happening in
45:12
America today. It looks as if we're now
45:16
beginning to see support for these pro Bitcoin legislations
45:20
and laws that are being on being voted on right now in America.
45:25
I think this is super bullish so.
45:27
Yeah, this is extremely bullish. And again, even after the news,
45:31
the the report that or investigation that Lola leads
45:36
saw with this FOIA request, I think that's going to push this
45:40
administration to be very competitive with countries like
45:43
China and buy more Bitcoin, especially now that this has
45:48
been caught if or is about to be codified into law.
45:52
And this is really important for other reasons that, you know,
45:56
this is solidifying Bitcoin's footprint in the United States.
46:04
Like this isn't just something that is being brought out
46:07
through executive order. This is something that is
46:10
actually going to take a great amount of effort to undo.
46:13
And so no matter what administration comes after this,
46:19
this is this is something that, you know, if when the country
46:22
sees the net benefits from it, it's going to be very difficult
46:26
for Congress to undo this. And so it's a huge step forward.
46:30
And, you know, banning the CBDC's is also a major, major
46:36
win for anybody who loves freedom.
46:39
So yeah, this is, I'm super bullish on this too, Luke,
46:43
You're totally right. I think the last I, I do like
46:46
the fact that you made there about once it's passed in, it's
46:49
going to be really difficult to kind of undo that law.
46:52
So even if God forbid the the Democrats gain leadership once
46:58
again in America, if a lot of these pro Bitcoin laws are
47:02
passed and kind of becomes entrenched in society, I think
47:05
it is going to be really tough to reverse your way out of that
47:09
and. I mean, I, I encourage the
47:11
Democrats like come be part of the freedom movement.
47:15
I think Bitcoin can be totally bipartisan.
47:18
And there are a lot of things about Bitcoin that, you know,
47:21
kind of cater to the left, like equal access to funds, non
47:25
discrimination, things that, you know, they talk about all the
47:29
time in, you know, their, their cultural politics.
47:33
And so I think, you know, they should just join team Orange,
47:38
you know, we, we could all be on the same team.
47:40
And I, I know that they all voted against these acts.
47:44
I can't imagine why. I mean, I can, but I, I, I don't
47:50
want to discriminate. I don't want to like push
47:52
anybody out. I think Bitcoin is for anybody.
47:56
And so, you know, they could totally join the side of freedom
48:00
if they wanted to just say. Please join the freedom
48:03
movement. Maybe one day maybe they will.
48:06
The last piece of news I got for you guys today is I saw this has
48:08
come out a few hours ago. Massive OG Bitcoin whale shifts
48:12
another $4.7 billion to a new wallet.
48:18
What I thought was cool here is that this guy has been holding
48:23
since 2011. So these wallets have been
48:25
dormant for, is that 4, 14 years?
48:29
Whoever this is, I know a lot of people are making a little bit
48:33
of a buzz about this saying, oh, there's a OG, he's dumping
48:37
80,000 Bitcoin. I mean, we, we don't have
48:40
confirmation he's dumping the Bitcoin.
48:42
Yeah, it's moving to and from exchanges.
48:45
But I mean, the dudes held for 14 years.
48:49
I mean, if he's got $8 billion worth of Bitcoin, good on him or
48:52
good on her for holding as much Bitcoin as they do.
48:56
So again, I saw this a few hours ago.
48:58
This whales moved another $4 billion worth of Bitcoin.
49:02
I mean, that might be kind of a good idea to like, I mean, I've
49:06
heard of people, you know, asking those questions like, oh,
49:09
what if I want to have multiple wallets for, you know, whatever
49:13
reason, maybe maybe people are afraid to just hold it all in
49:17
one wallet. So for me, this doesn't really
49:19
mean much unless that wallet belongs to like Coinbase or
49:24
Kraken or an exchange where like it's obvious that they're
49:27
getting ready to sell. Then that would worry me just
49:30
like maybe a little bit. Couldn't agree more.
49:33
I think it's pretty clear like the whales right now are
49:37
actually buying Bitcoin at some of their fastest pace paces in
49:40
history. I thought that's really
49:42
interesting. We don't normally see whales buy
49:45
as aggressively as they are today unless it's before a bull
49:50
run. So this is again, the big kicker
49:53
that I think gets missed by a lot of people.
49:54
A lot of people are saying, oh, you know, it's, it's the top
49:57
bitcoins topped at $120,000. Well, no, I, I don't think so.
50:02
Normally what these whales do is a pretty good indicator of
50:06
what's to come and they typically accumulate before the
50:09
bull run begins. So I, I think that's a super
50:11
bullish sign overall there. Well, you know what they say,
50:13
timing mark or time in the market beats timing the market.
50:17
And these whales, if, if they are whales, have likely bought
50:21
Bitcoin coin at like the cheapest price ever.
50:23
And they, they're used to this already.
50:25
They're used to the ebbs and flows of the cycle and they know
50:28
when to buy. So if these whales, you know,
50:30
have are selling like maybe they're, they're doing like the
50:34
reverse DCA ING, they're like starting to sell off a little
50:37
bit so that they can get ready for the next cycle.
50:40
But who's to say if there even is going to be a next cycle,
50:44
right? That and that's the big question
50:47
because now that you know, something like these bills, the
50:51
genius Act are passing through Congress and the United States
50:55
is adopting a pro Bitcoin stance, who's to say what will
50:59
happen next? Is it the death of cycles?
51:02
That's the big question this cycle, like are we going to see
51:05
another dump or are we just going to see a slow climb that
51:10
just goes up forever? I think, I think we should talk
51:15
about that in the culture, Sophie.
51:16
That's, that's fascinating. I wasn't planning on talking
51:19
about what will the cycles look like next.
51:22
Let's do it in. Let's do it in a moment, after
51:24
the culture section. For sure.
51:27
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You can catch the latest buzz at Hive Digital Tech or at Hive
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digitaltech.com. All right, guys, wait.
52:22
We want to show you something special right now for the
52:25
culture, in case you haven't checked Twitter.
52:28
Luke, do you have that tweet? Absolutely.
52:30
I'm sure the people are wondering why am I stuck with
52:33
that kid with a terrible haircut once again?
52:36
Well, of course. And the women?
52:40
Mika and Ofti are literally at the NASDAQ today.
52:43
They're all suited up. Sophie, did you pick that suit
52:46
out for your man? Mika?
52:47
I want to. Know I did.
52:49
I picked out both those suits actually, because these are like
52:53
my sons. I take care of them.
52:57
And so yeah, no, we want to give a big shout out to Hive for
53:02
being one of our greatest sponsors.
53:05
Their NASDAQ ticker is Hive. You can scan the QR code to find
53:09
out more and and find out how you can be mining from the
53:13
comfort of your own home. We're very excited.
53:17
I think this is a huge day. I know a lot of people are like,
53:21
oh, like at the institutions, whatever, but like this is what
53:24
we want. This is hyper bitcoinization.
53:26
This is what we've been fighting for.
53:29
And hey, I will take this future over nobody knowing about
53:33
Bitcoin and never using it any day.
53:36
Yeah, you and me both. So, so couple of things.
53:38
We mentioned we're talking about cycles.
53:41
I love talking about Bitcoin cycle theory.
53:44
I think a lot of people are kind of preparing themselves for the
53:47
next 6 to 12 months because again, if somebody doesn't know
53:53
but what a Bitcoin cycle is, I might pull up a chart that kind
53:57
of explains this four year cyclical nature of bitcoins.
54:02
You can see every four years we have one of those bubble phases,
54:06
which is highlighted by let's call that orange.
54:09
Let's call that a weak orange. That weak orange is showing us
54:13
that 12 month bull run that we typically see in Bitcoin.
54:16
But then every four years when we get a little bit overextended
54:19
and over our skis, we see these big corrections.
54:22
So Bitcoin, what's that? An 87% correction back in 2014,
54:28
an 84% correction four years later in 2018.
54:32
And then four years later in 2022, we saw another 77%
54:36
correction. So now we're kind of like asking
54:39
the question, yeah, is this 4 year cycle going to continue?
54:44
Is this bitcoins growth path destined for the next 15 years?
54:50
I I'm not so sure. Sophie, what are your thoughts
54:53
on this chart and just overall Bitcoin cycle theory?
54:56
I'd I'd love to pick your brain about it.
54:57
You know, what I see is just like basic economics, it's kind
55:02
of like the law of diminishing returns.
55:05
When you get early into something like Bitcoin, you're
55:07
obviously going to see like these huge, huge gains.
55:11
And as more people start to adopt Bitcoin and like not want
55:18
to sell it and not want to let it go and because it is a scarce
55:22
asset, they're not making more of it.
55:25
You know, you are going to I think it's it's like only common
55:29
sense to kind of see these these diminishing returns.
55:33
But that doesn't mean that it's not going to go up and to the
55:36
right forever, right? You know, if there's some kind
55:41
of catastrophe or housing crisis or what, I do predict that the
55:47
price of Bitcoin will go up because people will realize that
55:51
this is, you know, something that that isn't going to ever
55:55
lose value. It has.
55:58
What was it? What was that speech that
56:00
Michael Saylor did in Nashville, the Nashville conference, where
56:05
he talks about entropy? Like this is the only asset that
56:08
doesn't suffer from that. So I think when people find that
56:11
out, you know, the, the, the value's just going to keep going
56:14
up, which means that we're also not going to see the dumps that
56:18
we used to see. Yeah, I it's an interesting
56:22
rabbit hole. I could literally talk about
56:24
this for an hour. I, I, for me, my kind of base
56:27
case is that I think maybe there's like a 20 to 30% chance
56:32
that Bitcoin continues to see what we've seen.
56:35
And that is like diminishing returns.
56:38
And that would mean Bitcoin topping at like 150, I think 200
56:42
thousands, kind of like the top off.
56:44
If we get above two 5300 thousand, that would kind of
56:47
break quote UN quote the idea of diminishing returns.
56:51
So again, I, I don't, nobody knows the future.
56:54
I think there's maybe like a 20% chance.
56:56
No, come on. I think it'll be like maybe to
56:59
two 2250. I'm like really hoping for I'm
57:03
bullish, bro. Like, I think it'll, it'll get
57:05
to like 2/22/50 and then maybe we'll come back down to like 120
57:14
like where we're at right now. I just, it hurts.
57:16
I, it's really funny because as Bitcoin goes up or it's been
57:20
pumping this, this last couple of weeks, every time it goes
57:24
down just a little bit, I get so sad.
57:26
I'm just like. You get to buy more, we get to
57:29
buy more Bitcoin for cheaper prices all.
57:33
My money goes into Bitcoin all of.
57:36
It, I know it's, it's I, I think the next price swings are going
57:42
to be pretty crazy. And as we do kind of get into a
57:46
world where, hey, I mean, if we do see two twenty, $250,000
57:50
Bitcoin, that's going to mean some pretty interesting things
57:53
for the short sellers of Bitcoin.
57:57
So we kind of mentioned this a couple of times throughout
57:59
today's show. There was a massive debate
58:02
between Jim Chanos and Pierre Rashad earlier in the week.
58:07
This happened on the Preston's YouTube channel, Preston Fish,
58:12
long time Bitcoiner. It was a much anticipated debate
58:17
because Jim Chanos has been very, very, very openly, let's
58:23
say, bearish on micro strategy and Bitcoin.
58:28
But I do think we saw Grok. I believe this is Twitter's AI.
58:34
Summarize the debate on Twitter and what I found most
58:38
interesting. Again, Grok's supposed to be
58:41
somewhat impartial, but you can see here he summarized it.
58:46
So he summarized the perspective of Rashad and Chanos the
58:50
skeptic. So he says that Chanos the
58:52
skeptics take is that premium to Bitcoin holdings is financial
58:57
gibberish, no real value add leverage adds risk and he is
59:03
shorting micro strategy while long Bitcoin.
59:06
So again, I thought that was pretty funny that Grok is
59:09
summarizing Jim Chanos's position as financial gibberish.
59:13
And that was actually my take away as well from that debate.
59:17
I I do think that anybody shorting micro strategy is just
59:23
kind of asking for trouble. I think surely.
59:25
I think they hate money. I think they hate wealth, and
59:29
they're trying to just, you know, throw it all away.
59:32
Yeah. I couldn't agree more.
59:35
I, I think these guys, I, I think they're just trying to be
59:38
too cute. They're trying to be too clever.
59:40
And I, I think Preston asked the question at some stage, like,
59:45
hey, why don't you just buy Bitcoin?
59:47
Why don't you just stop being so cute with the trade and just and
59:51
just kind of buy Bitcoin and just chill?
59:55
Because that would break their brains, Luke.
59:58
That would like the cognitive dissonance would put them in
1:00:01
psychosis. And then, you know, all the
1:00:04
drugs that they are taking will just like implode and.
1:00:10
You know, it's too much for some people honestly, like this, this
1:00:14
concept and like understanding reality is way too much for some
1:00:18
people and they would rather hate themselves and and not do
1:00:23
what's best for them and their family than accept that maybe
1:00:27
they were lied to. And you know, it's OK 'cause we
1:00:29
were all lied to. Like they're not special.
1:00:32
Yo. What's what's matching the party
1:00:35
right now? Oh.
1:00:37
My God, wait. Live from the NASDAQ in the
1:00:43
heart of New York City. I don't know.
1:00:46
Somehow me and Opti made it here.
1:00:47
Look at that. That's crazy.
1:00:49
Who let you guys in the building?
1:00:52
Security did shout out to Hive for, you know, for hosting us
1:00:56
and stuff. But yeah, I mean, that's pretty
1:00:58
crazy. Thank you everybody for tuning
1:01:01
in. Shout out to Luke and for
1:01:03
hosting the show and then so if he's coming in strong from from
1:01:07
the hotel, but yeah. Guys, I'm nervous.
1:01:10
Why is the? Phone in.
1:01:11
Why don't let's zoom up the guys for everyone in the chat.
1:01:15
We're suit coiners. We're suit coiners.
1:01:18
That's crazy, right? Oh.
1:01:19
And the. Glasses just You all look so
1:01:21
classy you have. A big, big milestone for simply
1:01:24
we're we're calling in from the NASDAQ, the heart of New York
1:01:28
City, right next to Times Square.
1:01:30
It was pretty crazy. Pretty crazy.
1:01:32
Yeah, it's incredible. We got some good content for you
1:01:35
guys on the terrace, the roof of NASDAQ.
1:01:39
Great background suit. Wearing MAGA boys lol.
1:01:47
Anyways, wanted to drop in, not crash your guys party, but you
1:01:51
know, love you guys. Appreciate appreciate everybody
1:01:54
for tuning in. Shout out to Luke, the best
1:01:57
Bitcoin YouTube in the game. Yeah, the bullish the most
1:01:59
bullish Bitcoin content creator. In there and then of course
1:02:02
shout out to my beautiful wife Sophie for holding it down
1:02:04
today. Opti and I will be back
1:02:06
tomorrow. I don't know if should we just
1:02:08
do the show in the suits. No, yes, yes, I'm pushing for
1:02:12
the suits. Oh my God.
1:02:14
All right. I'll see you guys later.
1:02:16
Thank you. See you guys.
1:02:18
Bye. All right, guys.
1:02:20
So, I mean, should we wrap it up there, Luke?
1:02:23
Beautiful boys saying things, I think.
1:02:24
Guys, if you haven't already, smash the like button, share the
1:02:29
show with your friends, tell everybody about it.
1:02:32
And thank you so much for tuning in for another episode of Simply
1:02:38
Bitcoin Logging Out. Bye.
1:02:43
Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com a bit.
1:02:48
Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
1:02:51
Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
1:02:55
independence.