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Transcript

Tempest In A TSA Cup · Politix

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: I can't keep saying how much I agree with you.
• 0:02
  SPEAKER_01: Like, if Democrats did what I wanted, it would backfire spectacularly.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: This week we'll provide a quick update on the U.S.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: war against Iran.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: Then we'll talk about the Department of Homeland Security,
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: which has been shut down for about 40 days now.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: What's happening?
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Who's to blame?
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: Who's receiving the blame?
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  SPEAKER_00: How is it likely to end?
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  And what does the whole episode tell us about the internal
• 0:38
  Democratic Party fight
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: over how to oppose Donald Trump?
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to listen to the whole conversation,
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: Hello, and welcome to the Politics Podcast.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boitler.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Matthew Iglesias.
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  We're going to talk about the government shutdown today,
• 0:58
  because we did the Iran War last week.
• 1:02
  But I feel like a bunch of stuff that hasn't really necessarily
• 1:07
  affected the
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  SPEAKER_00: trajectory of the war did transpire in the last few days,
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: and it seemed remiss of us to not at least mention it.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: So basically,
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  it seems like Donald Trump's objective in the in the Iran war
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  has collapsed
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  SPEAKER_00: entirely to ending the problems caused by having invaded.
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  SPEAKER_00: Like he wants to straight up Hormuz back open.
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  SPEAKER_00: That's the main objective.
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  It is only closed because he launched the war and he does not
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  know how to get it
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  SPEAKER_00: open,
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  in part because the only moves he feels inclined to make in any
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  conflict are
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  SPEAKER_00: aggressive.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so to that end,
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  SPEAKER_00: he threatened Iran over the weekend,
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  SPEAKER_00: saying that if they didn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz,
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  he'd commit war crimes across the country by obliterating their
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  civilian energy
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  SPEAKER_00: infrastructure,
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  SPEAKER_00: like power plants and stuff like that.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so everyone was thinking, well, the war is going to escalate.
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  SPEAKER_00: But then on Monday,
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  SPEAKER_00: he posted a true social saying,
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  SPEAKER_00: just kidding,
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  the war crimes are postponed until the end of the week after
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  markets closed because
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  we're having great negotiations and we'll probably be able to
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  get this resolved
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  SPEAKER_00: diplomatically before then.
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  SPEAKER_00: So, of course, oil futures plummeted, stock markets rose.
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  Now it seems like it's dawning on everybody that this was maybe
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  just a market
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  SPEAKER_00: manipulation play,
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  SPEAKER_00: and we don't know.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so, you know, I mean, oil futures plummeted on Monday.
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  SPEAKER_01: Then it pulled back a little bit,
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  SPEAKER_01: but it was still a good day for cheaper oil futures,
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  SPEAKER_01: a good day for the stock market.
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  SPEAKER_01: But then as of Tuesday morning,
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  everything opened down again because nothing has actually
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  changed in the diplomacy.
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  SPEAKER_01: Now,
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  A real thing that did occur Tuesday morning is that two Indian
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  tanker vessels full
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: of liquid petroleum gas,
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  SPEAKER_01: which I think is what we call propane,
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  SPEAKER_01: but don't quote me on that.
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  SPEAKER_01: It is some kind of refined oil product.
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  SPEAKER_01: In India,
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  SPEAKER_01: people don't have gas stoves like we have in the U.S.,
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  SPEAKER_01: and they don't have a lot of induction stoves or electric stoves.
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  SPEAKER_01: So poor people,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: rural India either cook with LPG,
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  SPEAKER_01: which is the clean option,
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  SPEAKER_01: or they're cooking with like wood and dried cow dung,
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  SPEAKER_01: which is the dirty option.
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  And India has been in a huge LPG crisis because they don't have
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  any domestic oil there.
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  SPEAKER_01: The government's been rationing.
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  SPEAKER_01: They forced restaurants to close to prevent a crisis.
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  SPEAKER_01: There's all this talk that, you know, like dung prices are escalating.
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  SPEAKER_01: So two Indian tankers full of LPG transited the straits this morning.
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  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, nobody blew them up.
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  SPEAKER_01: And it's not like totally 100% clear why that
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  SPEAKER_01: is, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: Like, did the Indian government make some kind of deal with the Iranians?
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  SPEAKER_01: Did the Iranians just choose not to shoot at the ships?
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  SPEAKER_01: What's going on?
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  SPEAKER_01: Nobody knows.
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  But like the moral of the story that I would just remind
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  everybody of is that,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: oil is a physical commodity.
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  SPEAKER_01: Refined petroleum products are their own physical commodities.
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  SPEAKER_01: And nothing has happened to alleviate the shortage of
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  SPEAKER_01: of,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  crude oil into refineries and therefore of refined products
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  coming out of the
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  SPEAKER_01: refineries.
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  SPEAKER_01: The shortage just gets worse with every day that passes.
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  SPEAKER_01: Even if a handful of ships start going through,
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  or something like the Trump administration's preposterous
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  de-sanctioning of Iranian
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  SPEAKER_01: oil to increase the flow of oil to world markets,
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  SPEAKER_01: that all means that the rate at which
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: the shortfall grows is slowing, right?
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  But,
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  like,
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  the shortfall is still growing in absolute terms,
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  and the pain is still building.
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  SAS has canceled a bunch of flights for over the weekend,
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  sorry,
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  for over the summer.
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  SPEAKER_01: United announced that it's planning a 5% reduction in the,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: route miles that it will fly over the weekend.
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  SPEAKER_01: Petrochemical factories are reducing their output of different things.
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  SPEAKER_01: Farmers are purchasing less fertilizer than they used to be able to get.
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  The oil futures market is like a kind of a weird enterprise at
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  this point because...
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  It's a little bit detached from like what's going on in
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  refineries and so on and so forth.
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  And the contracts that are traded are mostly like American and
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  North Sea oil,
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  SPEAKER_01: which is not the oil that's been disrupted by this war.
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  So it's just carrying,
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  you know,
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  maybe less information than you might want to have.
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  And Trump is treating those indexes as like the policy target
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  that he wants to hit.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I sort of wonder about the reason you might expect Trump.
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  ships carrying propane to India to get bombed in the strait is
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  that Iran is
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  SPEAKER_00: essentially threatened.
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  SPEAKER_00: Like,
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  we will use the strait to export to people who are not allied
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  with the United
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  SPEAKER_00: States,
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  SPEAKER_00: who don't trade with the United States,
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  SPEAKER_00: who don't buy things in dollars,
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  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  SPEAKER_00: But if you don't do that, like...
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  SPEAKER_00: go at your own risk.
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  SPEAKER_01: So they've said, yeah, I mean, it's not clear.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
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  SPEAKER_00: so,
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  SPEAKER_00: well,
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  SPEAKER_00: and I think the response to this has basically been like,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's not worth the risk to us to try,
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  SPEAKER_00: to tempt this.
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  SPEAKER_00: But I do wonder,
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  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  SPEAKER_00: because the Iranians are not quite as idiotic about all this as Trump,
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  SPEAKER_00: and because,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: regime survival is an important goal,
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  SPEAKER_00: whether,
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  SPEAKER_00: now that the sort of public diplomacy aspect of this war,
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  SPEAKER_00: where like,
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  There may be swing state rubes who think because of all the
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  splosions that Trump is
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  SPEAKER_00: like in command of this situation.
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  But like the leaders of foreign countries know exactly what has
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  happened and why.
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  And they don't blame Iran because there's no above board way to
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  really blame Iran
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  SPEAKER_00: for any of this.
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  SPEAKER_00: And if you're on maybe as a gesture of goodwill.
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  SPEAKER_00: You just say,
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  we understand that the terrible United States has inflicted
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  much more pain on your
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  SPEAKER_00: people than it has on their own people,
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  SPEAKER_00: and we will thus let these important resources reach you,
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  such that you maybe can ratchet them closer to your side in the
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  fight than the
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  SPEAKER_00: American side,
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  SPEAKER_00: such that you might begin moving India away from...
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  SPEAKER_00: dollar denominated trade,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: like if you're,
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  SPEAKER_00: if you're actually trying to destabilize the United States,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's not necessarily counterproductive to let a couple ships through,
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  SPEAKER_00: even if it does kind of maybe make people think that the,
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  SPEAKER_00: that you're all bark,
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  SPEAKER_00: no bite.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_01: so there's,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: some suggestion that the Iranians will try to,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  collect tolls from the strait that would be denominated in
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  Chinese currency and,
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  SPEAKER_01: like,
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  SPEAKER_01: I don't know what.
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  SPEAKER_01: Then Iran could buy military supplies, something like that.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's also...
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  SPEAKER_01: Trump killed all these people,
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  SPEAKER_01: Iranian senior leaders,
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  SPEAKER_01: which,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: is not a totally standard wartime tactic.
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  The United States of America and its allies fired a lot of
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  ordinance at German
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  SPEAKER_01: soldiers over a years-long war.
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  SPEAKER_01: It did not particularly...
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  SPEAKER_01: try, I think, to like assassinate the top leaders of the Nazi regime.
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  SPEAKER_00: I think that wasn't like- There's some fun books about it.
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean, some Germans tried to, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: But, you know, for whatever, their own reasons, bring these to an end.
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  But,
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  you know,
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  it's not totally clear,
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  I think,
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  like,
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  who makes decisions in Iran right now?
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  SPEAKER_01: Like, who would have the authority to broker some kind of elaborate deal?
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  with,
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  you know,
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  with third party countries about the transit of oil,
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  things like that.
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  SPEAKER_01: You know,
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  SPEAKER_01: ideally,
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  you would have like a solid flow of information from
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  intelligence agencies through
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  SPEAKER_01: to the media,
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  SPEAKER_01: some kind of explanation of what's happening.
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  You would like to live in a world where if the president
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  announces that he's like
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  SPEAKER_01: on the verge of a diplomatic breakthrough,
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  SPEAKER_01: that that carries like real information.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: about the state of diplomacy, but it doesn't.
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  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, I mean, I just, you can check, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: And it's like, oil futures prices tumbled yesterday by like a lot.
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  SPEAKER_01: You know, the futures market moves leaps and bounds.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: But diesel prices went up.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_01: You know, they only went up a little bit.
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  SPEAKER_01: There's been no,
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  SPEAKER_01: the physical,
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  the market in petroleum products does not leap as rapidly as
• 10:34
  the futures markets in
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_01: either direction,
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_01: but it just keeps going up,
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_01: Like it's gone up,
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  SPEAKER_01: I think every single day,
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  SPEAKER_01: certainly every single week since this began,
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  because the amount of diesel that is coming out of the world's
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  refineries is huge.
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  SPEAKER_01: Like, it just continues to be low.
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  And these SPR releases,
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  the other things that's happening,
• 10:58
  are not compensating for that.
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  SPEAKER_01: And so,
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  the market for diesel needs to reach a point where people are
• 11:10
  burning less of it.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_01: That means, like...
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  SPEAKER_01: Like diesel is mostly just used to ship freight, you know, around.
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  Maritime fuel is used like almost exclusively to like big boats
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  full of stuff.
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  SPEAKER_01: And it's like the volume of global trade has to go down.
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  SPEAKER_01: Because there is not as much of that as there was.
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  SPEAKER_01: Chris Wright,
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  SPEAKER_01: the energy secretary,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: in parallel with Trump's announcements,
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  SPEAKER_01: he said yesterday that,
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_01: they're working on plans to bring more diesel to the market.
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  SPEAKER_01: That did not move the market because...
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: Because there's no diesel.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_01: If he actually has a secret plan to get more diesel on the market,
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_01: the price of diesel will,
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_01: in fact,
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: go down.
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  SPEAKER_01: But he didn't do anything.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_01: And he's just not subject to that same kind of commentary-based maneuver.
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  One thing we have to wonder is that maybe Chris Wright or
• 12:08
  people around Chris
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  Wright thought that saying that would be a market-manipulating
• 12:12
  play that they could
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  SPEAKER_00: profit off of by stealing from people on the other side of trades.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: That seems to have happened ahead of Trump's,
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: calling off the war crimes post on Monday morning,
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  SPEAKER_00: which actually did move markets heavily,
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  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  SPEAKER_00: That there was a unusual volume of trading in the 15 minutes before it.
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  SPEAKER_01: People front ran that announcement.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, to the tune of like a half a billion dollars.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
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  SPEAKER_00: And that's really bad.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's infuriating, but it's also like,
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  SPEAKER_00: The government can't really be run that way.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: You know, like, not in any kind of... It's like... It's like...
• 12:56
  A slightly cloaked version of just selling war plans for money,
• 13:02
  you know?
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  SPEAKER_00: And so obviously, like, Trump should be impeached.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: He should be removed.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: But,
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  SPEAKER_00: what really needs to happen is,
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  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  the people who made the trades need to be exposed and then held
• 13:14
  accountable in some
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: way or another.
• 13:15
  And obviously,
• 13:16
  like,
• 13:16
  I don't suspect that Kash Patel and Pam Bondi are going to do
• 13:19
  that.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: But how—I mean—
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: To your understanding,
• 13:24
  how easy would it be for an oversight panel chaired by
• 13:28
  Democrats to figure this
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: out?
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: also,
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 13:31
  the head enforcement officer at the SEC quit last week under
• 13:39
  somewhat unclear
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_01: circumstances.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, that'll be that'll be something to do hearings on.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I mean, I think it's difficult.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: I don't actually know what the legality, right?
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_01: So there's insider trading laws, right?
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_01: Insider trading laws are meant to constrain essentially,
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 14:02
  executives and directors and other responsible officials at
• 14:07
  publicly traded
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: companies,
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_01: Like what it, the like legal meaning, right?
• 14:12
  of insider trading is that you are an insider to the business
• 14:16
  decision making of
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_01: these business enterprises.
• 14:20
  I think there's a common sense view in which public officials
• 14:26
  could be trading on
• 14:27
  insider information about American public policy or about truth
• 14:31
  social posts from
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_01: the president of the United States.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_01: But I don't even know that that's a prosecutable case.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: Because you're not,
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: if you're a guy who,
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 14:45
  has an in with somebody in the White House communications team
• 14:49
  and you're trading
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: on the basis of that,
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_01: it's not like a securities law.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_01: issue.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: it's a government ethics issue and the Supreme court has really shredded,
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_01: like the bulk of public sector ethics.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I don't know.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if,
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if there's some statute that was violated or not,
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: but I do know that like,
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: like what the constitution says about impeachment,
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: um,
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: would sure.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: it's a good,
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_01: it's a,
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_01: it's a great hearing topic,
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: and I think we have a number of,
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_01: episodes like this related to Trump's crypto.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: I also mean just as a records keeping matter, right?
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: Like,
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 15:33
  I think some trading these days happens in an encrypted manner
• 15:40
  where it really
• 15:40
  would be difficult for a congressional committee to get to the
• 15:43
  bottom of who made
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: what trades.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: Sure.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: Like they could ask
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: like the owners of the trading platform who made the, we don't know.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: And, but this was not, this was on an open market, right?
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: So like how,
• 16:01
  how is it sort of like the equivalent of like pulling a pen
• 16:05
  register or something
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: like that in a,
• 16:07
  in a different kind of investigation where the Democrats
• 16:09
  wouldn't have to go to the
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: white house.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: They could go to,
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's not the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but you know.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange keeps, I think it's five years.
• 16:20
  There's like some period of time that they keep the records of
• 16:24
  all the trades so
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: that they are in compliance with CFTC rules.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that Congress can go to them and, you know, ask them.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: Or maybe the Illinois Democrats should... Their records.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, maybe...
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: They can pull it out of there.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 16:46
  I also,
• 16:46
  I don't know for sure that that is the relevant exchange for
• 16:50
  this.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: Everything you hear on politics is a fact.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_01: No, no, no.
• 16:53
  I mean,
• 16:54
  I just,
• 16:54
  you know,
• 16:54
  it's like there's a lot of different markets and stuff out
• 16:58
  there.
• 16:58
  But it's,
• 16:59
  you know,
• 17:00
  it's a fruitful line of inquiry for people looking at going on
• 17:04
  this.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_01: Although I think ultimately,
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_01: the flip side is like what's going to matter much more.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: to the politics is,
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: what will unfold in the economy over the weeks and months to come.
• 17:18
  Because,
• 17:19
  you know,
• 17:19
  right now,
• 17:19
  I mean,
• 17:19
  it's like we're starting to see the,
• 17:21
  like,
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: well, gasoline is so expensive, you know, kind of posts.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: And it is certainly more expensive than it was a month ago.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: And Trump's like,
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_01: if you go back to the State of the Union address,
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_01: like voters were already really mad at Trump about prices.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_01: And Trump's best probably talking point in rebutting that was like,
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_01: look how cheap gasoline has become.
• 17:44
  So the fact that gasoline is no longer cheap is like bad for
• 17:47
  that gestalt.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_01: But it's not so expensive yet that it's like,
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_01: meaningfully damaging the American economy.
• 17:55
  Um,
• 17:56
  we're like wrecking various Asian economies,
• 18:00
  um,
• 18:00
  as pure collateral damage.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_01: And I think, you know, it's an interesting question.
• 18:05
  Will any of those countries ever like cooperate with the United
• 18:10
  States on like
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: major questions again?
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_01: Like it's, um,
• 18:17
  We've just like done incredible damage to the economy of South
• 18:21
  Korea and Japan and
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_01: all these other countries that nothing to do with this.
• 18:24
  And we're not like brought in on any way in this strategy and
• 18:27
  also do not benefit
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: from Trump's various efforts to manipulate futures markets.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_01: Like they would be better off if Trump actually just said,
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_01: look,
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_01: this is going to go on forever.
• 18:41
  Like everybody should make new infrastructure investments to
• 18:44
  like route oil around.
• 18:46
  Because right now they're like just helpless and paralyzed by
• 18:52
  this fight that they
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_01: have nothing to do with and can't resolve.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_01: So it seems bad.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: I'm against.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_00: Should we talk about the shutdown then?
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, man.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_01: I got to get in an airplane next week.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 19:07
  We had to cancel some spring travel,
• 19:09
  but all of that happened before the war.
• 19:12
  So now the problem is that we've deferred our vacation to the
• 19:18
  future when getting
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: anywhere will be much more expensive.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: So that's great.
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_01: It's going to be like Mad Max by the time you go on vacation.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_01: I've got work travel back to back with vacation travel coming this April.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_00: My complaint has to do with the consequences of the war.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: Your complaint has to do with the consequences of the shutdown.
• 19:35
  Exactly how early do I need to wake up on April 1st to get to
• 19:39
  Portland,
• 19:39
  Maine?
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: What time is your flight?
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_01: It's like an 8 a.m.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_01: flight.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, I would just go to the airport the night before.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_00: Out of fucking Dulles.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: I would go to the airport the night before and sleep on the car.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: So just like to bring people back up to speed,
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_00: after the last government shutdown,
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_00: which ended close to the end of the year,
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_00: In 2025, Democrats extended funding for the government through January.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: And in the intervening weeks,
• 20:02
  they worked with Republicans to fund basically all federal
• 20:06
  departments other than
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: the Department of Homeland Security.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: So within DHS,
• 20:11
  the reason they won't fund Homeland Security is they want
• 20:14
  changes to ICE policy,
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: I think they've reasoned.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: The Republicans had pre-funded ICE for several years now.
• 20:24
  They don't really have enough juice right now to claw all of
• 20:30
  that money back.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_00: So they're asking for policy changes,
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: maybe claw back a little money,
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_00: but get ICE agents to wear masks,
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_00: no quotas,
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_00: no Kavanaugh stops,
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_00: things like that.
• 20:46
  And so...
• 20:48
  Well,
• 20:48
  also,
• 20:49
  there's a certain amount of optionality to it,
• 20:51
  right?
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_01: Like ICE got this big,
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_01: it's not just large in quantity,
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_01: but like procedurally irregular injection of funding from OBBA.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: And was sort of anticipating,
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 21:07
  like regular appropriations alongside what's sort of been put
• 21:11
  in their account.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_01: Part of the...
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: Shut down.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: As long as no appropriations are forthcoming,
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_01: like ICE operations continue and personnel continue to get paid.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: But in effect, Trump is like drawing down this slush fund.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_01: Like there'd been a lot of commentary previously to the effect of like,
• 21:33
  now Trump has this giant ICE slush fund that he can do whatever
• 21:37
  he wants with.
• 21:39
  But now that slush fund is being used to just like pay
• 21:44
  conventional salaries.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_00: I can't say this is exactly what happened,
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: but I think it's what happened,
• 21:50
  is that when Stephen Miller or whoever drew up the plans for
• 21:53
  this ICE expansion,
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_00: they were basically like,
• 21:55
  how much will it cost to have a military-sized secret police
• 21:59
  force to operate with
• 22:01
  impunity in the country and then to build out detention
• 22:04
  facilities for all the
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: people who get rounded up,
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: et cetera?
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_00: They came up with some number...
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: And they didn't think,
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 22:12
  this is going to cause severe backlash that might trigger
• 22:15
  appropriations lapses.
• 22:17
  So we should also include an extra increment of funding to
• 22:21
  cover that contingency.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: And so now that DHS is getting shut down,
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_00: as you say,
• 22:27
  they're not able to implement the policy plan as they imagined
• 22:31
  it because there's
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_00: still not enough money,
• 22:35
  even though they pre-funded themselves to the tune of 70 plus
• 22:38
  billion dollars.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_01: But also, TSA agents are just not getting paid.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_00: But DHS also includes Customs and Border Patrol, but then...
• 22:46
  like completely like disconnected from immigration enforcement,
• 22:52
  the Coast Guard,
• 22:53
  TSA,
• 22:54
  right?
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_00: And this is creating problems for those components of DHS.
• 23:00
  And the one that is causing like regular people to feel a pinch
• 23:06
  is TSA because TSA
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_00: agents aren't getting paid.
• 23:09
  SPEAKER_00: They're having a hard time keeping staffing levels up.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_00: So there's really long lines at many big airports and,
• 23:17
  And and so that is what is like putting pressure on legislators
• 23:22
  to do something right now.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, kind of.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, okay, so... It's putting pressure.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: It is generating news stories.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_01: I know,
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_01: a week ago,
• 23:35
  Republicans were purporting to feel that this was going to be
• 23:41
  good for them,
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_01: that they were going to hang it on Democrats,
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: that Democrats are causing all these flight delays.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: But then Democrats said, well, okay, we'll pass a...
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_01: TSA appropriation, if you want.
• 23:56
  Democrats have essentially argued that they are not trying to
• 24:02
  block appropriations
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_01: bills in order to secure leverage over immigration enforcement.
• 24:08
  That what they are trying to do is block additional funding for
• 24:11
  immigration
• 24:12
  enforcement unless they receive the policy changes that they
• 24:16
  are asking for.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_01: So that then flipped it on Republicans,
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_01: who then said,
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: no,
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_01: we won't pass any funding bills that carve ice out.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_01: So... I mean, yes.
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_01: The...
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_00: The basic idea is we'll fund Secret Service,
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_00: FEMA,
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: Coast Guard,
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: these agencies that have nothing to do with immigration enforcement,
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_00: and we'll have just a narrow shutdown of ICE and CBP.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_00: The question of whether that's a good move or not,
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 24:51
  depends on whether the Trump gambit to make the public blame
• 24:57
  Democrats for the DHS
• 24:59
  SPEAKER_00: shutdown is working,
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_00: If...
• 25:02
  If it's like the last shutdown where technically the Democrats
• 25:05
  kicked it off,
• 25:06
  but because people don't like Donald Trump and they've like
• 25:09
  correctly deduced that
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_00: he's the one who's always escalating and like flashing about and blah,
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_00: blah.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: If the public's blaming him anyway,
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_00: then I think that the logic really points to using TSA as leverage,
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_00: With the idea being that like no amount of,
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 25:33
  propaganda coming out of airport TVs or television ads or Trump
• 25:36
  getting in front of
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_00: cameras,
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans calling it the Democrat shutdown or whatever.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_00: No amount of that kind of messaging is going to.
• 25:44
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just I'm just saying like that's.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_01: That's not the road that we have traveled.
• 25:50
  Democrats seem to have lucked into the best of all possible
• 25:52
  worlds where they made
• 25:54
  a very simple move to disclaim this idea that they're using air
• 26:01
  travel as leverage
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: to say,
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 26:03
  we'll just fund that because our beef is with ICE and CBP and
• 26:06
  not with TSA.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans actually – the latest reporting is that –
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: John Thune went to Donald Trump and said,
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_00: look,
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_00: we can just agree to what Democrats are demanding and then use the budget
• 26:22
  reconciliation process where there's no filibuster to pass
• 26:26
  whatever we need for
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_00: ICE.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_00: And Trump-
• 26:40
  Right now,
• 26:41
  ICE has been functioning by drawing down what was in the OBPA
• 26:45
  account.
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_01: And we can write a new reconciliation bill that just refills that.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_01: And then Trump said no to that proposal.
• 26:53
  Yes,
• 26:53
  because much like in Iran,
• 26:57
  he does not like positive sum maneuvers if they –
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_00: carry a whiff of concession to them or of weakness, right?
• 27:09
  The only moves he likes and he will try as hard as he possibly
• 27:14
  can to use them are
• 27:16
  ones where he imposes enough pain on people he doesn't like so
• 27:20
  that they cry uncle,
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_00: which –
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_00: It actually makes him a bad fighter.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's like the piece I'm working on for tomorrow is about this.
• 27:29
  Is that all you have to do is like brace yourself to endure the
• 27:33
  pain and understand
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_00: how to convey to the people suffering,
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_00: like why they're suffering.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_00: And you can like make Trump step on his own dick, right?
• 27:44
  SPEAKER_00: That's what's happening in Iran.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: And I think –
• 27:48
  it's what will make his decision to reject this idea from Thune
• 27:52
  unsustainable.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_00: Like I suspect that after,
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: possibly before people hear this episode,
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: but eventually he'll be like,
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: Oh yeah,
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: we,
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: we,
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_00: we can like kind of have our cake and eat it too.
• 28:03
  Go ahead and agree to the Democrats thing where like they'll
• 28:06
  fund all of DHS,
• 28:08
  except for ice.
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_00: Then we'll do our own thing for ice and, and like get this off our plate.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_00: Like it's the logical thing, but, um,
• 28:18
  And like,
• 28:18
  I think it was like John Kennedy and Ted Cruz came up with this
• 28:21
  plan.
• 28:22
  So this is not like a squished sellout plan from Susan Collins
• 28:25
  or anything like that.
• 28:26
  And then John Kennedy had to go on TV and be like,
• 28:30
  we offered this to him.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_00: It would have worked.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_00: He said no, as he's entitled to.
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_01: But here's the catch.
• 28:36
  Like,
• 28:37
  one of the reasons why Ted Cruz offered this plan is that Ted
• 28:41
  Cruz was
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_01: Unrelated to this,
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 28:45
  there was like a larger intra-Republican argument about should
• 28:49
  they try to pass a
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_01: new reconciliation bill this year at all,
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_01: Because like,
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_01: when you're in the majority,
• 28:57
  the way you can like pass stuff most expeditiously is to do
• 29:02
  reconciliation bills.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_01: So your more ideological members are always going to be like,
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_01: we should do more reconciliation bills,
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_01: Like we should be reconciliation maxing.
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: The frontline members,
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_01: particularly in the House,
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_01: they don't particularly want to do a new reconciliation bill.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_01: So part of what Cruz was trying to do was,
• 29:23
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 29:24
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 29:25
  SPEAKER_01: jam up frontline House members,
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 29:28
  to resolve a deal that would require new reconciliation
• 29:33
  legislation to be written.
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_01: Now, what he's saying is that this new reconciliation bill...
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_01: Right?
• 29:39
  It's like,
• 29:39
  well,
• 29:40
  we'll just,
• 29:40
  like,
• 29:40
  address ICE in the reconciliation bill.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_01: But then,
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 29:43
  what's in the reconciliation bill besides ICE once the
• 29:47
  committees start writing
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_01: reconciliation instructions?
• 29:52
  SPEAKER_01: The House right now is 218 to 214 with three vacancies.
• 29:59
  So Republicans can lose one House defector and pass a
• 30:05
  reconciliation bill,
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_01: but they cannot lose two.
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_01: Two is a small number,
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_01: especially because Trump is openly at war with Tom Massey,
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_01: who,
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_01: as far as I know,
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_01: is not broken with Trump on this ICE issue,
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_01: but does not owe Donald Trump any favors and is in position to...
• 30:26
  I don't know,
• 30:26
  just like make whatever the fuck kind of demands he wants to
• 30:29
  make.
• 30:30
  SPEAKER_00: Like release the Epstein files?
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_01: related to the Epstein files,
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_01: but also if he wants to like gain his conservative cred,
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_01: Because like he's in a primary.
• 30:39
  He could be like,
• 30:39
  well,
• 30:39
  we need to like stop the,
• 30:41
  you know,
• 30:42
  Holocaust of the unborn.
• 30:43
  Like,
• 30:43
  you know,
• 30:44
  he can ask for whatever he wants and anybody can ask for
• 30:47
  whatever they want.
• 30:48
  when you're in a two vote margin and you have a bunch of
• 30:50
  frontline members.
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_00: And you have the budget, you have the, you have bird rules in the Senate.
• 30:54
  So a lot of the things that the house conservatives want and
• 30:58
  that Trump wants and
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_00: that Ted Cruz wants are not really going to fly.
• 31:02
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 31:02
  SPEAKER_00: Like, like I think that they would like to put the save America act on,
• 31:06
  SPEAKER_00: trans-ban stuff into the...
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_01: that was the latest thing,
• 31:09
  SPEAKER_01: was like,
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 31:10
  maybe we can put elements of the Save America Act in a
• 31:13
  reconciliation bill.
• 31:14
  SPEAKER_01: And like, maybe.
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see.
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_01: But also, Lisa Murkowski doesn't support the Save America Act.
• 31:22
  So...
• 31:23
  No,
• 31:23
  I mean,
• 31:25
  if you are a coherent party with a problem on your hands,
• 31:32
  which I think the
• 31:33
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans have a problem on their hands with with the TSA shutdown.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_00: This is a way to just solve that problem, right?
• 31:42
  You don't use the budget reconciliation process for any goodies
• 31:46
  that like you might
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_00: prefer to enact if you had bigger majorities.
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_00: You just say, look, Democrats are using the filibuster.
• 31:55
  SPEAKER_00: to jam us on this DHS funding bill.
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_00: We don't want to agree to their terms for reopening DHS.
• 32:06
  So we're just going to take the whole process out of the normal
• 32:09
  appropriations
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_00: process and do it in reconciliation.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_00: And we are not going to allow any extraneous things in.
• 32:16
  We are just going to be like,
• 32:18
  all of DHS is funded,
• 32:19
  voterama,
• 32:20
  final vote,
• 32:21
  done.
• 32:22
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_00: And then and then like, you know, Democrats, quote unquote, lose.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 32:27
  But like they didn't really lose because their fingerprints
• 32:30
  aren't on anything.
• 32:31
  Like,
• 32:31
  it's true that Republicans just have more power because they're
• 32:34
  in the majority.
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_00: And like,
• 32:37
  if I were Donald Trump and had as much leverage over
• 32:40
  Republicans in Congress as he
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_00: does,
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_00: I would say,
• 32:44
  SPEAKER_00: let's just end this pesky fight.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_00: Forget about the appropriation bill, just fund DHS.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: All of it in reconciliation.
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_00: Get it done in a couple of weeks.
• 32:55
  SPEAKER_00: We'll be good to go.
• 32:55
  SPEAKER_00: And and then,
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 32:57
  Democrats can wait until the next appropriations deadline to
• 32:59
  try to jam us on
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_00: stuff.
• 33:01
  And my point was only that Donald Trump doesn't see that as a
• 33:06
  satisfying victory.
• 33:08
  because it's essentially walking away from the fight and around
• 33:11
  it,
• 33:11
  right?
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_00: Sure.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_00: Instead of breaking Democrats' will.
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_00: And his very,
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_00: very,
• 33:19
  very strong preference and inclination is that that is the way
• 33:22
  to do business
• 33:23
  SPEAKER_00: across the board,
• 33:24
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_00: Sure.
• 33:25
  Against Democrats in in the in the DHS funding fight against
• 33:29
  Iran and trying to get
• 33:30
  SPEAKER_00: the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_00: And it's you know, it's like it it tempts him to do very evil things.
• 33:38
  But it also just tempts him to make a bunch of fucking
• 33:40
  boneheaded mistakes.
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 33:43
  And like my basic thought on this is that once you kind of
• 33:47
  recognize that about Donald Trump.
• 33:50
  You can outmaneuver him in a fight knowing that like what he's
• 33:55
  going to do is cause
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_00: harm to himself and to innocent bystanders and blah,
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_00: blah.
• 34:03
  SPEAKER_00: And you just have to like if you're a Democrat.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_00: kind of accept that what he does is out of your control,
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_00: and it's not your job to restrain him from hurting people for no reason.
• 34:18
  SPEAKER_00: It's your job to,
• 34:18
  SPEAKER_00: when he hurts people for no reason,
• 34:20
  SPEAKER_00: make them turn against him and then beat him in the next election.
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_00: And I could nitpick over this...
• 34:32
  SPEAKER_00: Democratic decision to to say, hey, yeah, we'll fund TSA.
• 34:36
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get rid of our leverage point.
• 34:38
  We'll get rid of the one thing causing actual Americans
• 34:43
  difficulty and just have a
• 34:45
  SPEAKER_00: good faith negotiation with you about what to do about ICE policy.
• 34:49
  SPEAKER_00: I can quibble with that.
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_00: But basically,
• 34:51
  I think that what they have learned over the course of several
• 34:55
  appropriations
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_00: fights is this thing,
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_00: which is that like.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_00: If you corner Trump,
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_00: he will start imposing pain on everybody,
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_00: including himself,
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_00: in a very politically counterproductive way,
• 35:11
  SPEAKER_00: and that's the win.
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I don't—I think that that is true.
• 35:20
  SPEAKER_01: I think—you know,
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_01: I think that we—you know,
• 35:22
  SPEAKER_01: we saw in the prior shutdown fight that,
• 35:25
  SPEAKER_01: though,
• 35:25
  SPEAKER_01: I think there was a real—
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah, it's the same as the war in Iran, right?
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_01: Like, clearly Trump attacking Iran.
• 35:36
  is the best thing that has happened for the Democratic Party's
• 35:41
  electoral fortunes
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_01: in,
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_01: a while.
• 35:45
  SPEAKER_01: It's a gift to the opposition.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_00: There have been like two or three.
• 35:49
  SPEAKER_00: There was Liberation Day, the first shutdown.
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_00: Like Trump keeps giving them.
• 35:53
  SPEAKER_01: Sure, right.
• 35:54
  But I mean,
• 35:54
  but the mode of action is like bad things happen in the world.
• 36:00
  And,
• 36:00
  you know,
• 36:01
  I think a lot of people for fairly good reasons are not,
• 36:05
  you know,
• 36:08
  excited to look at bad things happening in the world and be
• 36:11
  like,
• 36:12
  this is great.
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_01: You know, like, I'm doing amazing work.
• 36:15
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 36:16
  SPEAKER_01: I keep joking around with you and others that,
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 36:19
  SPEAKER_01: Chuck Schumer and the other,
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_01: waning group of pro-Israel Democrats should be just,
• 36:24
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 36:24
  out there egging Trump on to be more destructive and make worse
• 36:30
  things happen.
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_01: and we saw in the prior shutdown that it's,
• 36:33
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 36:34
  when Democrats got spooked about the prospect of people losing
• 36:38
  their food stamps
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_01: and
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_01: It wasn't like real leverage against them in a political sense.
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_01: They just like they felt sad about it.
• 36:48
  This airline thing is kind of different because it like most
• 36:52
  people are not
• 36:53
  SPEAKER_01: particularly impacted by TSA disruptions,
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_01: but it is highly impactful for senior congressional staffers,
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_01: members of Congress and professional political journalists,
• 37:04
  all of whom are people who fly in airplanes dramatically more
• 37:07
  than the average
• 37:08
  SPEAKER_01: person.
• 37:09
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, we'll we'll see what happens.
• 37:12
  But I want to take a break and and try to take stock of like
• 37:16
  where we actually are
• 37:17
  SPEAKER_01: in this as Democrats seem to seem to be like winning.
• 37:20
  SPEAKER_01: But how satisfying is it?
• 37:23
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_00: OK,
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_00: if you want to hear that part of the conversation,
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_00: you can go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.