Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 15

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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 15 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: in Wyoming, or visit www dot one gambler dot net
1:16
Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites of the podcast
1:28
Speaker 1: from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief
1:32
Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined as
1:38
Speaker 1: I am every episode by my bff, my companion, my
1:42
Speaker 1: compadre professional better Simon Hunted Hello. Saw him in Dad.
1:50
Speaker 1: How you doing, brother, I'm living the life right now, Simon.
1:57
Speaker 1: We got a game tonight that we've already talked about,
2:01
Speaker 1: the Thursday night game. We said on Tuesday, bet it
2:05
Speaker 1: right away, bet the Seahawks three and a half. Since then,
2:08
Speaker 1: we've officially gotten news Deebo, Sandy U all out, Kenneth
2:11
Speaker 1: Walker playing bounce back spot for Gino brock Purty, first
2:16
Speaker 1: game on the road as a starter short week. We
2:19
Speaker 1: like the circumstances we do, but in this episode we
2:26
Speaker 1: got to settle on our big balls better the week,
2:29
Speaker 1: we got to get closer to nailing our final five
2:31
Speaker 1: no more buys in the contest. We're five games out.
2:35
Speaker 1: We're place out of four thousand. We've lost a couple
2:39
Speaker 1: of games the past few weeks in the standings because
2:42
Speaker 1: the guy went twenty five, and oh, who's ahead of us?
2:46
Speaker 1: And we gotta do stop calls, So let's get to it.
2:50
Speaker 1: My friend Shop calls, Hello, who's there, I'm talking. Yeah,
3:05
Speaker 1: a busy week with the calls. To no surprise, I
3:08
Speaker 1: had a couple of calls about not just this week,
3:10
Speaker 1: but last week about that group that had bet the
3:13
Speaker 1: Browns and other guys were just asking about what went
3:16
Speaker 1: on there. It's just one of those games they missed.
3:18
Speaker 1: But we always asked how do you handle those kind
3:20
Speaker 1: of things? And I would say, that's that's that's one
3:22
Speaker 1: of those where they had to probably apologize to their
3:24
Speaker 1: customers because that was a really bad and miss Where
3:26
Speaker 1: why are you betting on Deshaun Watson after he didn't
3:28
Speaker 1: play for two years? But handling that, I don't know
3:33
Speaker 1: if everyone's different to me, if I if I got
3:36
Speaker 1: a team of analysts working below, I mean, my lowest
3:38
Speaker 1: graded guy has just been bad. I've been looking for
3:40
Speaker 1: a reason to fire him. Maybe I fire him after
3:42
Speaker 1: that kind of display on a bigger bet um, just
3:45
Speaker 1: because that was truly a big swing and a miss um.
3:49
Speaker 1: But that's Also when those you just kind of move
3:50
Speaker 1: onto the next week. So it was funny guys talking
3:53
Speaker 1: this week, UM just about that where you know it's
3:56
Speaker 1: rare you wake up and you see a number of
3:57
Speaker 1: move by two points or point and a half, and
3:59
Speaker 1: you or about that in the night. So this week
4:04
Speaker 1: I think guys are looking at games that are the
4:05
Speaker 1: same kind of matchups of you know what, what is
4:08
Speaker 1: the public thinking that last week that really doesn't matter
4:11
Speaker 1: cater to this week. It's not really worth talking about
4:14
Speaker 1: just because I guess it is for our livelisteners the
4:17
Speaker 1: Seahawks game. But it is interesting that the public is
4:20
Speaker 1: still benning the Seahawks despite Rock Purty. He didn't practice
4:24
Speaker 1: all week. Apparently he can't throw UM. So I know
4:28
Speaker 1: a really smart group that came in on the Seahawks.
4:30
Speaker 1: I told you, Chad, this was a Sunday game. This
4:32
Speaker 1: probably would be one of my bigger bets. But because
4:34
Speaker 1: it's Thursday, we know how wonky and weird Thursdays could be.
4:37
Speaker 1: I just couldn't do it. But we've seen the number
4:39
Speaker 1: move from three and a half to three, so hopefully
4:41
Speaker 1: you got that number. Like we talked about, UM, well
4:44
Speaker 1: obviously talked about it a bunch today on Action Island.
4:47
Speaker 1: So one board people to death on the podcast because
4:50
Speaker 1: it's not useful information of them. But it is one thing.
4:53
Speaker 1: One thing to say Seahawks three and a half if
4:57
Speaker 1: it's in the contest of three and a half. The
4:59
Speaker 1: reason we even spent any time on it the other
5:01
Speaker 1: day is because we might put it in the contest.
5:05
Speaker 1: What else did they call you about? One that I
5:07
Speaker 1: saved Chad from stepping in was that Washington game. I
5:10
Speaker 1: know a really smart, smart group. They're gonna come and
5:12
Speaker 1: have you on Washington. They're hoping the line will get
5:15
Speaker 1: down to four. With all the public love right now
5:17
Speaker 1: on the Giants. Uh, they did take the four and
5:20
Speaker 1: a half, but I know they're waiting to get to
5:21
Speaker 1: the four. That's just a great game to me. I
5:24
Speaker 1: feel like we're ending up on that game. I spotted
5:26
Speaker 1: that last week where it's just like that's a big deal.
5:29
Speaker 1: This team just had a bye week in between, so
5:32
Speaker 1: that's when we're gonna break down. But I can tell
5:34
Speaker 1: you a really smart group is gonna be in that one.
5:36
Speaker 1: So uh, there's no way we end up on the
5:38
Speaker 1: Giants and rightly there on Washington or uh, I would
5:41
Speaker 1: just pass on that one. They're in line once on
5:43
Speaker 1: the Colts. They love that Colds pick. A really really
5:47
Speaker 1: really really really really smart guy who I highly respect,
5:51
Speaker 1: basically told me this Colds team is they're terrible, but
5:56
Speaker 1: they're every better dream of they're gonna be in these
5:59
Speaker 1: closed games and they're kind of the team that doesn't
6:01
Speaker 1: know they're terrible, Like in all these games, are always
6:03
Speaker 1: fighting in they just haven't given up. Matt Ryan's not
6:06
Speaker 1: given up. We see him every game. He's he's literally
6:08
Speaker 1: going out there. Yeah, the Picts are brutal, but there
6:10
Speaker 1: a team that just keeps staying in these close games.
6:13
Speaker 1: So it surprises me they loved it now they did
6:15
Speaker 1: love it at four above. So this is one of
6:18
Speaker 1: these games where, yeah, if it's four and a half,
6:20
Speaker 1: I'll put it in. But at four three and a
6:22
Speaker 1: half chat, I don't know if I would put in
6:24
Speaker 1: our contest, but four and a half. Just love that
6:27
Speaker 1: value because that's where I had this number and I
6:28
Speaker 1: have at four. Just interesting here that this is a
6:30
Speaker 1: game that this guy loves just because to me, I
6:34
Speaker 1: don't know, it's there's there's certain times if I make
6:36
Speaker 1: big bets, I usually want to trust, really trust the quarterbacks,
6:39
Speaker 1: um or the defense. I guess he's back in the
6:43
Speaker 1: Colts d here against the Vikings team that scores on
6:46
Speaker 1: everybody though, So just an interesting play to me where
6:49
Speaker 1: he's he's going against, uh this Vikings team at one o'clock.
6:53
Speaker 1: But like we said, yeah, we love that number as well.
6:56
Speaker 1: Uh so, yeah, thats not a shocker he would take
7:00
Speaker 1: that position and then for a game we're split on Bengals.
7:05
Speaker 1: The pros absolutely love Tampa. I cannot get behind it,
7:09
Speaker 1: and I think it's just one of these things with
7:11
Speaker 1: these guys. Keep are gonna keep going against this Bengals
7:13
Speaker 1: team because they've been an absolute cover machine. The public
7:16
Speaker 1: is fat, they are fat off betting this Bengals team.
7:19
Speaker 1: They've just been covering every week for him, and the
7:21
Speaker 1: pros are trying to catch them, and they think they're
7:22
Speaker 1: catching them here. They think this is an absolute trap
7:26
Speaker 1: we already talked about. I just cannot get behind it.
7:28
Speaker 1: I might maybe my model is it is spot on
7:31
Speaker 1: and I'm overrating this, but I feel like this should
7:34
Speaker 1: be six. If this was six, I could start thinking, Tampa,
7:37
Speaker 1: what the hell? Two and a half different? Two and
7:39
Speaker 1: a half point difference, at three and a half. The
7:42
Speaker 1: money is absolutely pouring on sensing the number is just
7:44
Speaker 1: not moving. So I'm not not sure what to do here, Chad.
7:48
Speaker 1: We joke all the time the prosy they know, they know,
7:51
Speaker 1: and this is a spot where they know, but I
7:54
Speaker 1: just don't see it. I think the books still giving
7:56
Speaker 1: too much value to Brady and this Buccaneers team, and
7:59
Speaker 1: this is is a classic professional game. The pros are
8:02
Speaker 1: taking a stance, the books are taking a stance. This
8:05
Speaker 1: will be I'm just guessing here. I haven't talked to
8:09
Speaker 1: anyone in any sports books yet, but I will before
8:11
Speaker 1: we do our picks on Sunday. But I'm gonna guess
8:14
Speaker 1: this is a ten to one, twelve to one tickets
8:17
Speaker 1: money bets everything on the Bengals, so this could be
8:21
Speaker 1: a huge trap spot. I just want people to be careful,
8:24
Speaker 1: um if they are thinking of back in the sinse side.
8:28
Speaker 1: All right, Um, still a lot to talk about. Uh.
8:35
Speaker 1: I want to dig in a little bit deeper on
8:37
Speaker 1: the Colts because that is a line that has moved
8:42
Speaker 1: from four and a half down to four and then
8:44
Speaker 1: went back up to four and a half. We wouldn't
8:48
Speaker 1: put it into the contest at four. Unfortunately for one
8:53
Speaker 1: of us. On Tuesday it moved from four and a
8:57
Speaker 1: half to four. I was worried it was gonna go lower,
9:00
Speaker 1: so I betted it for am I uncomfortable that I
9:04
Speaker 1: betted it for no. I just say, you know, I
9:07
Speaker 1: hate pushes. I just absolutely hate to push. We want that,
9:09
Speaker 1: we want the hook. Yeah, we want that hook. Uh.
9:13
Speaker 1: But yeah, I feel like our reasoning for loving it
9:16
Speaker 1: is just true in the sense that this Vikings team
9:21
Speaker 1: just plays close games and it's not any fault of
9:24
Speaker 1: the offense. The offense we've seen all season. They've moved
9:26
Speaker 1: the ball, Kirk has played pretty well. Um, justin Jefferson,
9:30
Speaker 1: he might set the all time record for most receiving
9:32
Speaker 1: yards in the season. I know people are like, but
9:35
Speaker 1: it's unfair because they have the extra added game. I mean,
9:37
Speaker 1: how long did they play with fourteen games, Chad, I
9:40
Speaker 1: feel like that was a long time. So you kind
9:42
Speaker 1: of have to get get over those kind of records
9:44
Speaker 1: in those game records. Uh. Justin Jefferson, think about any
9:48
Speaker 1: games he didn't have catchers their yards where he was open.
9:51
Speaker 1: Kirk just wasn't getting it to him, So I kind
9:53
Speaker 1: of don't fault him for playing an extra game, But
9:56
Speaker 1: in this matchup the Colts, I just have to trust
9:59
Speaker 1: the Colds will be able to keep this game close.
10:01
Speaker 1: We've seen every team had success against this Vikings defense.
10:05
Speaker 1: We've seen their secondary they're average and get up over
10:07
Speaker 1: a hundred three ten yards per game passing two quarterbacks.
10:11
Speaker 1: Do you go through the list of teams they played
10:13
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks, It's not like they're all
10:15
Speaker 1: a bunch of all pro quarterbacks. There's a lot of
10:17
Speaker 1: bad quarterbacks mixed in there. So I'm looking at a
10:20
Speaker 1: matchup of Yeah, it's it's scary backing Matt Ryan, but
10:25
Speaker 1: we're getting them after a by a week, Alright, He's
10:27
Speaker 1: not gonna be all banged up because me for the
10:29
Speaker 1: most part of filming, as good as he's felt all season,
10:31
Speaker 1: and this offense, they have gotten healthier. We saw Pittman
10:35
Speaker 1: come back before the by. We saw Jonathan Taylor finally
10:37
Speaker 1: get some touches and more carries where he's like terrible
10:39
Speaker 1: all season, he's kind of gotten things a little bit
10:41
Speaker 1: going since he's come back from that injury. So just
10:44
Speaker 1: on the offensive side of the ball, I really do
10:45
Speaker 1: think this Colds team is matched up well for this
10:48
Speaker 1: Vikings team. So it is one of those games that, um,
10:54
Speaker 1: I know that no matter what, we were gonna be
10:56
Speaker 1: on a chat. As soon as I saw the numbers
10:57
Speaker 1: come out, I was like paying that where I was like,
10:59
Speaker 1: this is the game we always love to take, especially
11:01
Speaker 1: against the Vikings team that's gonna be over inflated just
11:04
Speaker 1: because of their record. But it is surprising, Like you
11:07
Speaker 1: just said, the number went down and it went back up.
11:09
Speaker 1: I didn't really get that. So, uh still like the
11:12
Speaker 1: four and a half, but it is it's your stream,
11:14
Speaker 1: um that it has been bouncing up and down. Well, look,
11:16
Speaker 1: the Minnesota defense is just bad, right, Uh. The Lions
11:21
Speaker 1: only had two punts the week before. I think the
11:24
Speaker 1: Jets they were in the red zone six times. Uh,
11:29
Speaker 1: and they had they had nearly five yards against the
11:34
Speaker 1: Vikings defense. Um. You look at our luck rankings, which
11:39
Speaker 1: we love, which is the best measurement of regression for
11:43
Speaker 1: the NFL in the country, and those numbers when the
11:48
Speaker 1: delta for is sixteen or more, meaning the Cults are
11:55
Speaker 1: in our luck rankings, they've been one of the unluckiest teams.
11:58
Speaker 1: The Vikings are second. They're one of the suckiest teams.
12:00
Speaker 1: So that's a delta of twenty six. Yeah, it's an
12:04
Speaker 1: auto play on the Colts, right, And so here's one
12:06
Speaker 1: more stat again. I always mentioned the Action Network podcast
12:09
Speaker 1: with Chris Raybond and Stucky It's Brilliant, comes out Thursday mornings.
12:14
Speaker 1: Here's something from that from that uh podcast. The Cults
12:19
Speaker 1: are actually outgaining their opponents. Minnesota is actually getting out
12:24
Speaker 1: gained by sixty yards per game. The Vikings are just
12:28
Speaker 1: a lucky team. And I know we like talked about
12:31
Speaker 1: it on Tuesday. I don't hate the Vikings. I just
12:35
Speaker 1: hate betting on the Vikings. I don't believe in them,
12:38
Speaker 1: and like that's it I want. I mean, people are
12:42
Speaker 1: gonna come back at you just saw. I'll say it
12:44
Speaker 1: before they say they will simply say that's because the
12:47
Speaker 1: Vikings are usually in a lead position where the Colts
12:49
Speaker 1: have been behind probably in every game, which is a
12:51
Speaker 1: fair argument. But I feel like what you're saying is
12:53
Speaker 1: these teams are as far off as the records perceived.
12:56
Speaker 1: They both like that. That's what he's talking about, the
12:58
Speaker 1: luck factors. So I do think that does play into it, all, right,
13:01
Speaker 1: culture culture in there. If we can get the four
13:03
Speaker 1: and a half the culture in there. Yeah right, I
13:05
Speaker 1: really do like that number h Jacksonville Jaguars. I love
13:11
Speaker 1: how Jacksonville now they refer to it as Duval like
13:17
Speaker 1: Jacksonville is so non to script. Nobody cares about Jacksonville.
13:21
Speaker 1: There's no attitude with Jacksonville. But Duval County. Now, Duval,
13:28
Speaker 1: now we're talking about. That's some character, that's a region.
13:32
Speaker 1: That's what people are getting behind Duval. I don't give
13:37
Speaker 1: a funk about Duval. I don't give a funk about Jacksonville.
13:40
Speaker 1: I do like the Jaguars in this game. Uh as
13:46
Speaker 1: the Florida Native. I do care about you, Jacksonville. Sorry
13:49
Speaker 1: for all that slander there. Um you didn't see their
13:51
Speaker 1: mascot last week in a speedo. That was great, fantastic,
13:54
Speaker 1: It's great. I love it. Um. Yeah, another game where
14:01
Speaker 1: me and check in help ourselves. What the hell are
14:03
Speaker 1: we supposed to do? People and people I got I
14:05
Speaker 1: got so many message about this that we just love
14:07
Speaker 1: jackson What every week we take Jacksonville, it's fair to say,
14:10
Speaker 1: I mean me and jad Joe, we would literally be
14:12
Speaker 1: in first place if we just faded Jacksonville every week
14:15
Speaker 1: this year. Our contest Uh, that is fact. That is
14:18
Speaker 1: literally facts. It's true. But we are going strong with
14:21
Speaker 1: Jacksonville down the stretch because we have Jacksonville plus seven
14:24
Speaker 1: fifty to win the a f C South, and we
14:27
Speaker 1: love it even better. I gotta like thirteen fourteen o
14:30
Speaker 1: one where we were taking in May and June. I'm
14:34
Speaker 1: all in on it. But it's also if you're one
14:36
Speaker 1: of those people you have as big as I do,
14:38
Speaker 1: you obviously eventually need to take a position on Tennessee
14:41
Speaker 1: because those are just amazing odds and they have to
14:44
Speaker 1: kind of run the table here. So this is a
14:46
Speaker 1: great spot. It's not that it's the reason I'm mainly
14:51
Speaker 1: taking the Bears, but I love look ahead spots, and
14:54
Speaker 1: I doubt the Eagles are gonna overlook the Bears. They
14:58
Speaker 1: claim they're saying all the right things, and I think
15:00
Speaker 1: the same thing with Dallas. They're probably not gonna overlook
15:02
Speaker 1: the Jaguars, but they are looking ahead. That each other
15:05
Speaker 1: face each other the following week. That's a big deal.
15:07
Speaker 1: The fact that Eagles and Cowboys play each other final week,
15:09
Speaker 1: and the fact that they're both on the road as favorites,
15:13
Speaker 1: that's a big deal. It's like transitioning to the Bears
15:17
Speaker 1: and Eagles right now. No, I'm just saying, like that's
15:19
Speaker 1: what's it's built into this line. I do believe that
15:22
Speaker 1: this line would probably be higher if this wasn't such
15:24
Speaker 1: a look ahead spot for the Cowboys are looking ahead
15:27
Speaker 1: right saying with the Eagles, Um, I mean they're literally
15:29
Speaker 1: already chatting about each other two weeks out. I mean, Michael, yeah,
15:34
Speaker 1: so looking at this matchup of do I think the
15:38
Speaker 1: Cowboys are gonna overlook the Jaguars? Not at all? But
15:42
Speaker 1: how much more does this mean that the Jaguars team?
15:44
Speaker 1: I mean, this is what we're just talking about. This
15:45
Speaker 1: is kind of it. They have to kind of went
15:47
Speaker 1: out to make the playoffs, and this is a game
15:49
Speaker 1: they need to steal. I mean the fact that it's
15:52
Speaker 1: still at this this point at four. I thought i'd
15:55
Speaker 1: been down to three by now, because I didn't think
15:57
Speaker 1: that's gonna be a big professional bet play um on
16:00
Speaker 1: the simple fact that this Cowboys team has struggled, uh
16:03
Speaker 1: this season with certain teams and certain matchups. But you know,
16:07
Speaker 1: it is the Jaguars and that's why it probably is four,
16:10
Speaker 1: right because they have so many disappointing losses this season
16:12
Speaker 1: of they're in these games and all of a sudden
16:14
Speaker 1: fourth quarter comes and they just actually have meltdowns. But
16:17
Speaker 1: everything I've seen or Trevor Lawrence, it seems like he
16:19
Speaker 1: stepped up to the plate. Like he talked about, he
16:22
Speaker 1: can't keep losing like this. He needs to be the
16:24
Speaker 1: leader of this team. He said the right things. After
16:26
Speaker 1: that Ravens game. We saw the finaling week delayed the dud.
16:28
Speaker 1: So that's the weirrire chat is We're back in a
16:30
Speaker 1: team that just had a massive win on the road
16:33
Speaker 1: against Tennessee. Now coming home, are they gonna lay dud?
16:37
Speaker 1: That's the fear here. So I don't I do love it,
16:40
Speaker 1: but I'm trying to listen to the fans and not
16:42
Speaker 1: get too sucked in. Like they said, they're begging us
16:44
Speaker 1: not to make it one of our five. Probably listen
16:47
Speaker 1: to you people. But I do love it. I feel
16:49
Speaker 1: like we're getting such good value around Jacksonville. But I
16:51
Speaker 1: get Look, here's the thing, it's the value. If this
16:58
Speaker 1: game was three, we would have been bad. But how
17:02
Speaker 1: is it four and a half? Look, the Cowboys have
17:04
Speaker 1: injuries on their offensive line. The Cowboys have injuries in
17:08
Speaker 1: their secondary Trevor Lawrence. Something has clicked in the second
17:13
Speaker 1: half of the year, and a lot of those losses
17:15
Speaker 1: we had with the Jaguars, they were earlier in the
17:17
Speaker 1: year where we were buying into Trevor Lawrence thinking that
17:20
Speaker 1: the chemistry with him and Doug Peterson was going to
17:22
Speaker 1: be better than it was, and it's finally starting to
17:27
Speaker 1: get there. Um and look, did Jack's have a good
17:31
Speaker 1: rush defense? I think that helps them against the Cowboys,
17:35
Speaker 1: and they've got a really good offensive line against the
17:39
Speaker 1: pass rush. So it's just too big of a number.
17:45
Speaker 1: That's it. I I get where people are coming from, though,
17:48
Speaker 1: I am sorry. We just I love we love this team.
17:51
Speaker 1: We love these like these are such good matchups. And
17:53
Speaker 1: this is the public hates him. This is why we're
17:55
Speaker 1: getting value. Simon. As I tell my kids, don't apologie
18:00
Speaker 1: us for who you are. We are a Jaguars loving team.
18:04
Speaker 1: We are a cult's loving team. We are going to
18:07
Speaker 1: ask people to do ugly things. We're going to ask
18:09
Speaker 1: them to believe in us and over the long haul
18:12
Speaker 1: and by the way, long haul meaning a season you're
18:15
Speaker 1: gonna win. True, I mean, and I messages people back,
18:18
Speaker 1: I tell them I'm losing with you like, this isn't
18:20
Speaker 1: like I sent them tickets. It's like I bet beg
18:22
Speaker 1: on the Jaguars. I'm hurting with you because I get it.
18:25
Speaker 1: People are like, I hate putting my hard earned money
18:27
Speaker 1: on this Jaguars team, but you got you gotta trust
18:30
Speaker 1: the process. People, please, speaking of trusting the process. So
18:37
Speaker 1: it's really interesting to me this has been a year
18:41
Speaker 1: in which underdogs of more than three have been crushing. Yeah,
18:48
Speaker 1: and so here's what we've been talking about. Jags plus
18:52
Speaker 1: four and a half, Colts plus four and four and
18:55
Speaker 1: a half, Bears plus nine. Look the Rams two weeks ago,
19:02
Speaker 1: the Broncos last week, the Bears this week. I want
19:09
Speaker 1: to get your take on this because we know we're
19:12
Speaker 1: going to bet the Bears. But this is one of
19:15
Speaker 1: those things that we talked about all the time, and
19:17
Speaker 1: that you play the number, you play the situation, but
19:24
Speaker 1: you also got to think about the teams at this
19:25
Speaker 1: point in the year. I love the Bears here, I'm
19:29
Speaker 1: not walking away from the Bears plus nine, but their
19:33
Speaker 1: defense does scare me a little bit. Like the reason
19:35
Speaker 1: we liked the Broncos at plus nine because we like
19:38
Speaker 1: their defense so much. The reason why we liked the
19:40
Speaker 1: Rams at plus nine is because we thought their defense
19:45
Speaker 1: could sustain against the I think it was the Seahawks,
19:50
Speaker 1: so I mean they were that's plus seven and a half,
19:53
Speaker 1: plus eight, whatever it was. The Bears do not have
19:56
Speaker 1: their Bears are playing in JV defense right now. Yeah,
19:59
Speaker 1: they're all full, but it's the game changer of fields.
20:02
Speaker 1: And I'm not gonna lie chat. When I saw that
20:04
Speaker 1: he had illness and wasn't practiced in this week, not ideal.
20:07
Speaker 1: We've got a guy who's a vegan who's got apparently
20:10
Speaker 1: some type of flu or maybe it's a stomach buck.
20:12
Speaker 1: I don't know what he's sick with, but he's sick
20:14
Speaker 1: and he's missed I think two practices now not ideal,
20:18
Speaker 1: especially the fact that I've already met this damn game.
20:20
Speaker 1: I bet the nine and a half at the nine
20:22
Speaker 1: because I did think this is gonna go down to
20:24
Speaker 1: eight eight and a half from the next couple of days.
20:26
Speaker 1: But you just touched on it though. It's like, what
20:30
Speaker 1: can we do? This is an inflated line though this
20:33
Speaker 1: Egos team, yes, they are very good, they are very talented.
20:36
Speaker 1: We see how hard it is to cover big numbers.
20:39
Speaker 1: Because it's hard to sustain it for an entire game.
20:41
Speaker 1: It's just human nature. If they go up twenty one nothing,
20:45
Speaker 1: you know you head into half, are you gonna come
20:47
Speaker 1: out with the same kind of energy in the second half. Probably.
20:49
Speaker 1: Note we've seen this that with this Ego seam as sure,
20:51
Speaker 1: they get up big on teams and they've let teams
20:53
Speaker 1: back in the second half. That's happened multiple times this year.
20:56
Speaker 1: So I'm with you on the fact that this Eagles
21:00
Speaker 1: team is clearly a jugger not We talked in all
21:03
Speaker 1: off season. This was the best put together team on paper.
21:06
Speaker 1: This is better than the Ego Super Bowl team the
21:09
Speaker 1: whole the questions was ken Jalen Hurts learned to read
21:12
Speaker 1: a defense. Clearly he has. I mean, this is incredible.
21:15
Speaker 1: He's playing at m VP level. Every reader is right.
21:18
Speaker 1: When he should run it, he runs, When he should
21:19
Speaker 1: pass it, he passes. He takes the deep shots. Bears
21:23
Speaker 1: are probably one of the worst defenses of football. But
21:25
Speaker 1: we're back in here is the fact that you guys
21:28
Speaker 1: are a great team offensively. We've seen it every week
21:31
Speaker 1: with Justin Fields. He he really does produce. I believe
21:35
Speaker 1: Herbert's back right the second number two running back for
21:39
Speaker 1: you guys. I believe he's back off the injury reserve,
21:41
Speaker 1: so that's another weapon this offense is getting back. Um,
21:45
Speaker 1: it's just too big of a number. Chat. That's why
21:46
Speaker 1: it's like I'm I'm with everyone. That's why it's a
21:50
Speaker 1: foxhole bet. This is terrified. This is gonna be one
21:52
Speaker 1: of the least bet teams of the week. Every teaser,
21:56
Speaker 1: every money on, everything is going to be connected to
21:57
Speaker 1: this Eagles team. Are Eagles really going sixteen and one?
22:02
Speaker 1: I mean think of all through all the history of
22:03
Speaker 1: all the teams with just one loss to the season.
22:05
Speaker 1: So there's just there's just tend to be games that
22:07
Speaker 1: trip up teams, and it just feels like a good
22:10
Speaker 1: spot to take against the Eagles team. This is their
22:12
Speaker 1: second road game, just before they played Dallas the following
22:15
Speaker 1: week on Christmas. There's just so many little distractions. I
22:18
Speaker 1: know Jalen Hurts saying all the right things and he's
22:20
Speaker 1: all he's laser focused. But man, if there if there's
22:23
Speaker 1: a spot to overlook a team that's coming off a
22:25
Speaker 1: bye week, we got we gotta buy this Bearers team.
22:27
Speaker 1: That's such a big number. But I'm with each other's
22:30
Speaker 1: there's a couple of games this week that that's what's
22:32
Speaker 1: gonna be tough on Sunday. It's like we're gonna take
22:34
Speaker 1: all four of these games that make a sicker. We
22:36
Speaker 1: dropped one or two out of here. So if the
22:38
Speaker 1: Bearers will make the list, I wouldn't be shocked. But
22:40
Speaker 1: at nine and a half in contest, it has to
22:43
Speaker 1: be in. That's just a huge number in the contest. Simon,
22:47
Speaker 1: the sicker the better is that you're saying. That's her
22:51
Speaker 1: saying the sicker the better. If we don't feel gross,
22:55
Speaker 1: if we don't look like the goddamn puke emoji on Sunday,
22:59
Speaker 1: then we're just not doing our jobs. Um. I also
23:03
Speaker 1: do wonder if if the Eagles are a big in
23:08
Speaker 1: the first half, because they do play so well in
23:10
Speaker 1: the first half, do they pull back a little bit
23:13
Speaker 1: in the second half. And I don't mean they're not
23:15
Speaker 1: trying as hard, but are they more conservative with the offense?
23:19
Speaker 1: Are they not pulling everything out of the playbook to
23:22
Speaker 1: try to build the lead? You know, because they do
23:25
Speaker 1: have the Cowboys the next week, they want to be healthy. Um,
23:28
Speaker 1: you can start to take your foot off the gas
23:31
Speaker 1: a little tiny bit and that leaves it open for
23:34
Speaker 1: Justin Field to joke and make his moves and you know,
23:38
Speaker 1: do all the backdoor cover things that we think he
23:40
Speaker 1: can do while the Bears still lose the game. Well
23:44
Speaker 1: I will I will say this as a Bears fan.
23:47
Speaker 1: Me and my buddies have been texting about this. This
23:50
Speaker 1: is the greatest season ever because because we all believe
23:55
Speaker 1: in Justin Fields and for the first time in what
23:58
Speaker 1: feels like a generation, it looks like the Bears have
24:02
Speaker 1: a roadmap. The the management team feels competent right and
24:06
Speaker 1: you can see where the holes need to be plugged.
24:09
Speaker 1: And every week our expectations aren't to win. Our expectations
24:13
Speaker 1: are let's have fun watching Justin Fields, let's pray to
24:18
Speaker 1: the football gods he stays healthy, and let's move on
24:21
Speaker 1: next week. Win or lose, we don't care. I mean, Bears,
24:24
Speaker 1: you want to lose though, like this great, absolutely amazing
24:29
Speaker 1: draft to be bad and not need a quarterback. I
24:33
Speaker 1: mean your front office. I do think they are smart
24:36
Speaker 1: because they made picks and you guys had nothing last
24:38
Speaker 1: year to players that really look pretty good. Again, it's
24:40
Speaker 1: still early in their careers, but they look good for
24:42
Speaker 1: your defense, Um, Bears. Oh yeah, there, that's the craziest thing.
24:48
Speaker 1: We talk about the time about the draft. It's like
24:50
Speaker 1: it's such hit and missed, such hit and miss stuff,
24:53
Speaker 1: where going back it's a no brainer. We even go
24:56
Speaker 1: back and listen with you. We talk We talked that
24:58
Speaker 1: at nauseam in that draft about how we didn't get
25:00
Speaker 1: why Fields is on the number two quarterback And look
25:04
Speaker 1: at this Jets team. Now if they had Fields, they
25:07
Speaker 1: know how different this year all of that, and then
25:11
Speaker 1: think about that with the forty niners, if they had
25:13
Speaker 1: a weapon, if Shanahan had a weapon, like justin Field.
25:16
Speaker 1: So so I can't wait till this upcoming draft. I
25:18
Speaker 1: think there is an other three or four quarterbacks that's
25:20
Speaker 1: kind of same thing. It's it's all in there. But
25:22
Speaker 1: that's why the Bears have to be feeling so good
25:24
Speaker 1: where you have never ending amount of money next in
25:29
Speaker 1: this upcoming off season to get an offensive line, and
25:32
Speaker 1: then you should have enough draft picks to try to
25:34
Speaker 1: fill in going ahead all the pieces you're missing on defense.
25:36
Speaker 1: So I'm right there with the Bears fans. This is
25:38
Speaker 1: like this probably to me would be the most exciting
25:41
Speaker 1: I'd feel about this team since that um that season
25:44
Speaker 1: with Mitch the double doingk season, where like that was
25:46
Speaker 1: a great season for the Bangs. Uh because Mitch, you
25:50
Speaker 1: guys all believe. I believe too. I mean I was like, Okay,
25:52
Speaker 1: Mitch is gonna be the Bears quarterback. Now we saw
25:55
Speaker 1: quickly that can change. I still see that same fate
25:58
Speaker 1: with fields. Here. Old Barnwell, who we've had on the
26:01
Speaker 1: podcast before and as a brilliant columnist at ESPN, has
26:05
Speaker 1: a great story. It's on the front page of ESPN
26:07
Speaker 1: right now, looking at and it's Germaine to what you
26:11
Speaker 1: said about the draft, looking at the moves, the picks,
26:15
Speaker 1: the Denver trader to Seattle for Russell Wilson, that um,
26:19
Speaker 1: the Rams traded to Detroit from Matthew Stafford, and that
26:22
Speaker 1: New Orleans trader to Philly for like a variety of yours.
26:25
Speaker 1: They end up getting Christal Love. Right. So now we're
26:29
Speaker 1: talking about Seattle, Detroit, and Philly all having really high
26:34
Speaker 1: first round picks. The Eagles like, how is the goat? Dude?
26:40
Speaker 1: It's Super Bowl with Jailee hurtson quarterback, and then they
26:46
Speaker 1: have all these picks to make, like to get people
26:50
Speaker 1: on the edge or to like it's gonna be insane,
26:53
Speaker 1: insane with the Lions, Like the Lions can plug some
26:55
Speaker 1: really important holes. There's options for Jared Goff over the
26:59
Speaker 1: next couple of years. Like it's insane. I try not to.
27:04
Speaker 1: I try not to beat people down with like my
27:06
Speaker 1: Egos fandom, but like, yeah, I think every Egos fan
27:09
Speaker 1: right now is just like holy ship, this is really
27:11
Speaker 1: our lives right now. Like this team is stacked, very young,
27:16
Speaker 1: and there's just tons of draft capital coming forward. So
27:19
Speaker 1: it could be a great four or five year round
27:21
Speaker 1: for the Eagles. Yeah, how he how he is? He's
27:24
Speaker 1: playing chess. Everyone has playing checkers. All right. We talked Bears,
27:27
Speaker 1: we talked Colts, we talked Jags. One wild card for
27:31
Speaker 1: you real quick. All right, Well we haven't we haven't
27:34
Speaker 1: done a big balls yet. Um, and let me remind
27:36
Speaker 1: people you mentioned foxhole. Bears plus nine is our foxhole?
27:39
Speaker 1: Simon says, Jack's plus four and a half. The exact
27:42
Speaker 1: decision Cults plus four. Um, if you have a wild card,
27:46
Speaker 1: is it our big balls? Yeah? You want the big balls? Well,
27:53
Speaker 1: is it the same as the wild card? I want
27:54
Speaker 1: the wild card first? No, my wild card. I just
27:58
Speaker 1: wanted to hear what your view was of this Chief's
28:00
Speaker 1: Houston game pass normally here here's why all week I've
28:07
Speaker 1: been waiting for this line to go higher. I'm saying,
28:12
Speaker 1: what if it was thirteen and a half? Then contest?
28:13
Speaker 1: Would you chake Chiefs? That's interesting. I think about it
28:18
Speaker 1: over the weekend because literally, Houston, they have no no
28:21
Speaker 1: one left. Well that's that, That's what I mean. All
28:24
Speaker 1: these injuries. It would be an autoplayer on the Texans, right,
28:27
Speaker 1: but every injury, right, but they don't have like Cooks
28:30
Speaker 1: might not be playing, Damian Pierce isn't playing, like their
28:34
Speaker 1: top two corners aren't playing. Yeah, so it's very possible.
28:39
Speaker 1: And by the way, in a half, let me just
28:41
Speaker 1: say this, all right, let's flip it right. Our worldview
28:46
Speaker 1: is always take the docks, and so for us, a
28:51
Speaker 1: big balls better the week is Titans plus three or
28:55
Speaker 1: Raiders plus one. It's actually a favorite. But what if I,
29:00
Speaker 1: like a couple of weeks ago, I made us take
29:01
Speaker 1: the Bengals as a big balls better the week is
29:04
Speaker 1: a favorite? Yeah? What if what if the Chiefs as
29:07
Speaker 1: two touchdown favorites? Was there big balls better the week?
29:12
Speaker 1: I don't got the balls to do it, I'd play
29:13
Speaker 1: a contest. Yeah, I honestly, your face the way you
29:17
Speaker 1: just your face just looked. Yeah, it might as well
29:20
Speaker 1: have been our big balls Better the week because my
29:23
Speaker 1: other one I want to give our I got another one.
29:26
Speaker 1: I feel like it more confident. I just I just
29:28
Speaker 1: think if it's thirteen a half, that's really hard to
29:30
Speaker 1: pass on that because I could see a closing at
29:32
Speaker 1: fifteen sixteen kick off. Yeah, I'm not uncomfortable with playing
29:38
Speaker 1: the Chiefs is a favorite in the spot, all right,
29:41
Speaker 1: love it, but yeah, you're righty for the big balls.
29:43
Speaker 1: I wish I was mainly enough to take Tampa. I do, people,
29:46
Speaker 1: I really do. I just I just cannot do it.
29:49
Speaker 1: I cannot do it. Big balls better the week going
29:53
Speaker 1: against my guy Chad Washington football team at home. Why
29:59
Speaker 1: would you do that to me? No, no, no, no, no,
30:02
Speaker 1: yeah no. Look I haven't bet the Giants yet. Everyone's
30:06
Speaker 1: saying the same thing. This game played in the tie?
30:08
Speaker 1: Why is this in the game not three? Why is
30:10
Speaker 1: this game out three and a half? Once you hear
30:12
Speaker 1: every Joe Schmo, even the guy in the seven eleven
30:14
Speaker 1: is talking about it. Because I live near a lot
30:16
Speaker 1: of Giants fans. I was like, holy shit, this this
30:18
Speaker 1: is gonna be a monster for the book, isn't it.
30:21
Speaker 1: So this gotta be the Big Balls? But you don't
30:23
Speaker 1: want to do it? Hold on, what do you mean
30:26
Speaker 1: the guy's seven eleven is talking about like you when
30:27
Speaker 1: you walked into seven eleven. He started talking about it. Yeah,
30:31
Speaker 1: and my Eagles head on. He's like, you you're an
30:34
Speaker 1: Eagles fan. I was like, no, I just stole the hoodie,
30:38
Speaker 1: fun fun jersey comma, but yeah, it's just a classic
30:42
Speaker 1: Giants fan trying to get into my skin. He's like,
30:44
Speaker 1: you're scared, right if they make the playoffs. It's like,
30:46
Speaker 1: you guys ain't making the playoffs. But and then he
30:48
Speaker 1: started going on without this line. I was like, holy shit.
30:51
Speaker 1: And maybe I'm overthinking it here, but you just feel
30:55
Speaker 1: like every one of their grandma's gonna be taking this
30:57
Speaker 1: four and a half. They think they're getting a gift here.
30:59
Speaker 1: That is that is, that is the spirit of the
31:02
Speaker 1: Big Balls. Better the week is to do the exact opposite,
31:08
Speaker 1: And all anyone who's talking about is the Giants plus
31:11
Speaker 1: four and a half. I listened to Raybund and Stucky
31:13
Speaker 1: this morning. Stucky loves the Giants. I gave you all
31:16
Speaker 1: the reasons I love the Giants. I went on, I
31:21
Speaker 1: went on more ways to win. It's a show on
31:23
Speaker 1: FanDuel TV. All the experts there love the Giant, love
31:28
Speaker 1: the Giants. Keep going the Giant. Let any dimes on
31:33
Speaker 1: the road. Like they played to a tie, the Giants
31:36
Speaker 1: were up by seven. Lad they had the field goal
31:39
Speaker 1: they missed. Let's go Cheff. Yeah you all right? I
31:44
Speaker 1: love it now, you know you know I love these
31:48
Speaker 1: home favorites and the public loves these road dogs. So um,
31:51
Speaker 1: this has been very profitable me all season. I'm gonna
31:53
Speaker 1: keep riding this trend. It said them nicely, especially Chad
31:56
Speaker 1: is saying that it feels like the public and a
31:59
Speaker 1: lot of these like guys who bet big money are
32:01
Speaker 1: all gonna be on this Giant side. I don't see
32:04
Speaker 1: us putting this in the contest, for sure, it's gonna
32:07
Speaker 1: be in there. I'm not I'm not going to be
32:08
Speaker 1: the nice, nice guy on Sunday. I'm forcing one inn
32:11
Speaker 1: force this one in. I just know, I just know
32:13
Speaker 1: a really smart group that's gonna come in on them,
32:16
Speaker 1: or maybe they already have, but it's there's just a
32:19
Speaker 1: lot of things that point to this being a great number.
32:21
Speaker 1: Got the pros on it a good number. Every week
32:25
Speaker 1: there's a game that we're convinced we're on the right
32:29
Speaker 1: side of with like an ugly dog, and oftentimes it
32:35
Speaker 1: doesn't work right, And so is this the game this
32:39
Speaker 1: week you're talking about? Were for the season? Usually, but
32:43
Speaker 1: every every week there is a game that maybe we
32:46
Speaker 1: don't put it in the contest, but that we love
32:49
Speaker 1: and that is like, it makes total sense to bet it,
32:54
Speaker 1: and then the game happens. You're like, what the funk
32:56
Speaker 1: happened there? Right? Who knows? This could be the game
33:00
Speaker 1: I happen to think you're wrong, But we're not going
33:02
Speaker 1: to get off because it's a beat off. Then I
33:05
Speaker 1: don't want it to be a bet off because you're
33:06
Speaker 1: already four. You might as well try to end your
33:08
Speaker 1: own five. Don't fucking bait me. Now, you're gonna cheer
33:13
Speaker 1: for this one because we're probably gonna have this one
33:15
Speaker 1: in there, right, Like, I'm not. I'm not I'm not
33:19
Speaker 1: doing that because I'm not going to bet on the
33:20
Speaker 1: game that I'm ment secretly hoping the upside honestly, the
33:25
Speaker 1: upside of winning in the contest is greater than any
33:29
Speaker 1: amount I will bet on this game. I wish you
33:31
Speaker 1: felt that way when we put Tennessee over the Eagles
33:33
Speaker 1: in that was one of them. That was one of
33:36
Speaker 1: those picks, right that I'm talking I'm talking about I
33:40
Speaker 1: feel like I got good calls on it, and it
33:43
Speaker 1: just feels like what you just talked about just feels
33:45
Speaker 1: like the public will be on it as well with
33:46
Speaker 1: the Giants. So one of those spots, well, let's look
33:49
Speaker 1: right now. Let me tell you right now, the where
33:53
Speaker 1: is the public on this game? I'm telling you they're
33:56
Speaker 1: gonna be Giants? Dude, this guy is the public is
34:00
Speaker 1: the worst seven eleven of the tickets. Of the money,
34:07
Speaker 1: where is it? Who's it on the Giants? Oh Jesus, yeah, Chad.
34:14
Speaker 1: But here's what's interesting. To prove your point, I'm going
34:19
Speaker 1: to be a mention. I'm going to prove your point
34:22
Speaker 1: of the money is on the Giants. The line hasn't
34:25
Speaker 1: moved all week. What does that tell you? Right? For
34:30
Speaker 1: those but I told you this group is literally they're
34:33
Speaker 1: waiting as soon as it touched for is that they're
34:35
Speaker 1: hitting it. So it tells you that the wise guys
34:37
Speaker 1: are gonna like the Washington commanders find Simon, you did
34:40
Speaker 1: what you're supposed to do. You did your job. You
34:44
Speaker 1: showed me the light. Thank you. You took me from
34:48
Speaker 1: journalist who knows this to professional level insight. Okay, peek
34:55
Speaker 1: behind the curtains, peek behind the curtain. You did it. Congratulations.
35:00
Speaker 1: All right. So that's our big balls and now God
35:04
Speaker 1: only knows. I'll be heavier on Washington than I will
35:07
Speaker 1: in any game this weekend, and it'll probably end up
35:10
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38:41
Speaker 1: back to the shop. Two other games Tennessee still plus
38:44
Speaker 1: three against Los Angeles Chargers, feeling a little queasy about it. Yeah,
38:51
Speaker 1: and the Raiders. I like I still like him at home. Yeah,
38:55
Speaker 1: obviously one and a half. We were in a static
38:57
Speaker 1: We're hoping it was gonna keep keeping up the two
39:00
Speaker 1: the pros came in that was just too big a number. Um, yeah,
39:04
Speaker 1: Raiders are the right side of that one. So we
39:05
Speaker 1: we might. We might. I might end up talking chatting
39:08
Speaker 1: to it. He might end up talking me into it.
39:11
Speaker 1: The Patriots just clearly aren't the team are used to
39:14
Speaker 1: They've only been beating up on bad backup quarterbacks. Um,
39:18
Speaker 1: the record looks way better than it should be. They've
39:20
Speaker 1: been very fortunate this season. It should be a good
39:23
Speaker 1: game for this Vegas team. This is exactly one Vegas
39:25
Speaker 1: disappoints us. So that's a tough one. Um, Tennessee. I
39:31
Speaker 1: don't know. I was hoping for a shure. I was
39:32
Speaker 1: hoping for more pro calls on it, hope when the
39:34
Speaker 1: pros were gonna love that one with US split, it's
39:37
Speaker 1: all split. They think the books are undervaluing a healthy team.
39:41
Speaker 1: Now on this Chargers team, right, they got Mike Williams back. Yeah,
39:44
Speaker 1: they're They're just healthy. And the fact that Herbert you
39:48
Speaker 1: can watch it on film, he took that shot. Was
39:51
Speaker 1: it week two or three at the ribs for the Chiefs.
39:53
Speaker 1: Whenever you heard those he heard his ribs. Um, he
39:57
Speaker 1: didn't look good for about four weeks there and every
39:59
Speaker 1: week since, and he's progressively looked better. Now you look
40:02
Speaker 1: up and he's like top five in passing and pretty
40:05
Speaker 1: much every category. Herbert's just an animal. So, oh, man,
40:09
Speaker 1: I get where they're coming from. The Tennessee's defense struggles
40:12
Speaker 1: against big body receivers. Look at who they just lost to.
40:17
Speaker 1: He started with the Bengals. Um they went down there
40:20
Speaker 1: in Tennessee. They beat him, then they lost the Eagles
40:23
Speaker 1: big body receivers, and then they just lost to Jacksonville
40:26
Speaker 1: where's a Jones had an incredible game against him. Who
40:29
Speaker 1: Jay Jones is a big body receiver. So the matchup, Yeah,
40:32
Speaker 1: favor is a Chargers team, but means chat, I feel
40:35
Speaker 1: like it's been good to us taking Tennessee as a
40:38
Speaker 1: dog bigger than three, and it's been good to us
40:40
Speaker 1: to fade the Chargers as a favorite bigger than three.
40:43
Speaker 1: So it won't end up, I guess in our five um,
40:46
Speaker 1: but I feel like it just saw my principal. I
40:48
Speaker 1: just have to blindly take Tennessee here that the it
40:52
Speaker 1: feels like they are reeling right. They're going through injuries,
40:54
Speaker 1: everything like that. But if Burke's is back the wide receiver,
40:58
Speaker 1: if they have more than two healthy receivers, I'll probably
41:00
Speaker 1: end up on Tennessee. If not, I'll just avoid this
41:03
Speaker 1: game with us, likely because it is split. I know
41:05
Speaker 1: a really smart group that is pounding the charges of
41:07
Speaker 1: two and a half. They think they're getting great value.
41:09
Speaker 1: We've seen this number. It's been three and it really
41:11
Speaker 1: hasn't moved. So um. Definitely an interesting game this week.
41:16
Speaker 1: I forgot. I lad there's one more game I want
41:18
Speaker 1: to talk about. Takes a little bit about it. The
41:21
Speaker 1: other day. We didn't settle on anything. Ravens plus three
41:26
Speaker 1: right now against the Browns. But it's like, what are
41:30
Speaker 1: we doing. We're gonna back to the third string quarterback
41:32
Speaker 1: for the Ravens. I know we're supposed to like Ravens
41:35
Speaker 1: defense verse a broken Watson and if you even go
41:39
Speaker 1: through the Nick Chubb's numbers, he's been suffering since Watson
41:42
Speaker 1: has come back. So I mean, I get it. I
41:46
Speaker 1: get why the pros they're betting the Ravens. I'll probably
41:48
Speaker 1: end up on them too, but I don't still know
41:50
Speaker 1: if I can make it my five chat. It's like, man,
41:52
Speaker 1: third the third stringer. I know we got away, we
41:55
Speaker 1: got away with the last week with Rock Party, but
41:56
Speaker 1: that was like we're back in that amazing system and
41:59
Speaker 1: all that the offensive weapons on the four nineers. They
42:02
Speaker 1: do not have that on this Ravens team. Like I
42:04
Speaker 1: know Dobbins was able to move the ball last week
42:06
Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh, but I don't know. Mark Andrews just hasn't
42:09
Speaker 1: looked himself for weeks now, and they don't really have
42:12
Speaker 1: a number one receiver, and now we have a third
42:13
Speaker 1: string quarterback. So I get what you're saying, Like, on principal,
42:16
Speaker 1: I should love the plus three, but and they's just
42:21
Speaker 1: I'm saying, I'm getting sucked in on Chad's August Darling
42:25
Speaker 1: and this Carolina team to win this division. So I
42:27
Speaker 1: don't know. I think I'm drinking the juju. The juice
42:30
Speaker 1: I see the Ravens dropping a game here and this,
42:33
Speaker 1: this feels like a good number. So three, I'm just
42:37
Speaker 1: I'm stuck. I wouldn't pick either side in honestly, Mike White,
42:42
Speaker 1: we talked a lot about the Jets and the Lions.
42:46
Speaker 1: We love the Lions generally. UM, Jets with the superior defense,
42:52
Speaker 1: Mike White now playing outside, Jared Goff kryptonite. Um, everything
42:59
Speaker 1: here is splitty. We take its money, everything, no consensus.
43:04
Speaker 1: I mean we know our side though, like we have
43:06
Speaker 1: to take the Jets. We have to take Jets the
43:08
Speaker 1: defense outdoors and against golf. UM. I love it though,
43:14
Speaker 1: because this is this to me is like why I
43:16
Speaker 1: love December football. This is a true playoff game. Both
43:19
Speaker 1: these teams. This is a playoff game for both. It
43:21
Speaker 1: seems to make the playoffs they need to win this game.
43:23
Speaker 1: So I love it. I love the lines, like you
43:25
Speaker 1: just said, the lines just sitting there to pick all week.
43:28
Speaker 1: Love it, Love everything about this game. One of those
43:30
Speaker 1: where we're not really getting much value either side, So
43:32
Speaker 1: maybe we won't have it as one of our five,
43:34
Speaker 1: but I'll be on the Jets and I cannot wait
43:35
Speaker 1: to watch this game. I love Dan Campbell so much.
43:40
Speaker 1: I'm so glad that he's gonna be coaching this team
43:42
Speaker 1: next year, and I think he will be um all right,
43:45
Speaker 1: our Foxhold Bears plus nine, our son sex Jack's plus
43:48
Speaker 1: four and a half are e d exact decision. Colts
43:51
Speaker 1: plus four are big balls better the week, Washington minus
43:55
Speaker 1: four and a half. We are. We're gonna talk about it.
43:59
Speaker 1: We put and see adle in or not, because let
44:02
Speaker 1: me say this, we like the Colts, we like the Bears,
44:09
Speaker 1: we like the Jags, we like Washington. We're thinking about
44:14
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, like thinking about Vegas. We're thinking about Vegas.
44:21
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I know that's that's that's when
44:25
Speaker 1: we'll talk more after we do the Island Show. But
44:28
Speaker 1: as we sit here right now, I freaking love the Seahawks,
44:31
Speaker 1: like Broc Purty not throwing the ball all week, Like
44:34
Speaker 1: that's a that's a big deal. We might be getting
44:37
Speaker 1: stringer tonight. I think my feeling is that if this
44:42
Speaker 1: were a game on Sunday, we wouldn't be hesitating. And
44:48
Speaker 1: it's always scary to us to do it on a
44:50
Speaker 1: Thursday on Thursday because I hate that, oh on one
44:52
Speaker 1: headed in the Sunday. But I'm trying to convince myself
44:55
Speaker 1: it's all good chat because we can either we can
44:57
Speaker 1: do a pick on Saturday anyway. So I'm trying to
45:00
Speaker 1: and zone it. So it's like we should end up
45:01
Speaker 1: on this game, you know what. I think we gotta
45:03
Speaker 1: do it all right, let's we're gonna put it in.
45:05
Speaker 1: Is it three and a half? Yeah, yeah, I'll be
45:08
Speaker 1: three and a half definitely. Okay, so people listening know
45:12
Speaker 1: that we're putting Seattle in. I'll put it in the
45:14
Speaker 1: app under the phase five. Um, so you'll see that
45:17
Speaker 1: we put that pick in. Uh, what is our scoot
45:21
Speaker 1: Roulette this week? Simon? Oh my scoot rot geez, Like
45:29
Speaker 1: you just said, there's so many games I love. Um,
45:33
Speaker 1: should you suhoually ever written down I gotta do it,
45:35
Speaker 1: then I guess I'm like, I'll in on it. I'll
45:37
Speaker 1: go Washington. I knew you were gonna do. I have
45:41
Speaker 1: to you have to scroll off to the list here.
45:43
Speaker 1: It's like, who who who? Who am I stick and
45:45
Speaker 1: claim on this week? It's gotta be the commies. Uh,
45:49
Speaker 1: you know what I'm gonna do. Then I'm gonna do
45:51
Speaker 1: Jags four and a half even though it's yours, Simon says,
45:54
Speaker 1: because it was gonna be my exact decision, but you
45:56
Speaker 1: pulled it first. So I'm doing Jags plus four and
46:00
Speaker 1: a half. Our money line round Robin, I would do Jags.
46:06
Speaker 1: And this has been anyone listening. I've I've way lowered
46:10
Speaker 1: my bets every week. We've just been not us particularly,
46:14
Speaker 1: we just football in journal. The dogs have not been
46:17
Speaker 1: winning out right, They've been covering. But our win weight
46:20
Speaker 1: went right went way down for out for underdogs out right.
46:23
Speaker 1: So just don't be don't be going as crazy as
46:25
Speaker 1: we were earlier in the year on these uh money
46:28
Speaker 1: line around Robins, Jags, Colts, Colts Raisers. Yeah, okay, that's fair.
46:37
Speaker 1: I mean, what are you gonna do? You not gonna
46:38
Speaker 1: put the Bears in there. No, let's go to Tennessee
46:42
Speaker 1: and we gotta go. We gotta got balls in this
46:44
Speaker 1: last one, this big one. I gotta go with Miami. Interesting,
46:49
Speaker 1: it's gotta gotta get weird with it because we didn't
46:53
Speaker 1: even talk about Miami as a game. Well, it's left
46:56
Speaker 1: the seven and a half, and that's what I want.
46:57
Speaker 1: I want the seven and a half. I don't want
46:58
Speaker 1: the seven. So that's one of those we just wouldn't
47:01
Speaker 1: have in um at that number. And we already know
47:06
Speaker 1: the deal like this is you go. We were taking
47:08
Speaker 1: Miami outdoors, a team that struggled in the elements, uh
47:12
Speaker 1: not ideal. So that's why I just didn't think it
47:14
Speaker 1: would be one of our five because there's so many
47:16
Speaker 1: unknowns that don't really not even right. In fact, I
47:20
Speaker 1: would I'd almost be more comfortable making our big balls
47:23
Speaker 1: Buffalo and then Washington, but whatever you love Washington, that's everything.
47:31
Speaker 1: Bears plus nine is Foxall. Simon says, Jack's plus four
47:34
Speaker 1: and a half. Exact decision, Colts Uh plus four Big Balls,
47:38
Speaker 1: Washington minus four and a half. Scoot Roulette Simon Washington
47:43
Speaker 1: minus four and a half. Chat is under the Jack's
47:45
Speaker 1: plus four and a half for a scoot Roulette money
47:48
Speaker 1: line round robin one more time, Jack's Colts, Raiders, Titans Miami.
47:55
Speaker 1: Do you expect us to be putting in Seattle plus
47:57
Speaker 1: three and a half in the contest? I will put
47:59
Speaker 1: that in the act A network app follow the phase five.
48:02
Speaker 1: All right, silent, We've done it all, my brother, I
48:06
Speaker 1: have done it all. Uh. This has been the Favorites
48:10
Speaker 1: podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Four might bff Simon
48:14
Speaker 1: Hunter for our producer extraordinaire Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Mellman.
48:19
Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, from Apple Podcast, wherever you get
48:23
Speaker 1: your podcasts. Don't forget rate reviews, subscribe and he was
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Speaker 1: five stars say whatever you want. Feedback is the gifts.
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Speaker 1: More importantly, listen all the way through people. We know
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Speaker 1: in the fat two hundred until next time, Love you.
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