Latest / UK Column Radio / Iran is Decolonizing West Asia — And the US Empire is Crumbling in Real Time | Silk and Steel

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Iran is Decolonizing West Asia — And the US Empire is Crumbling in Real Time | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: One.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you for being here. My guest today is the
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: Very Popular Culture, a man who got canceled by YouTube,
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: only to be uncanceled because apparently even the YouTube algorithm
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: missed him. He's the creator of the Silk and Steel podcast.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: It is a show that dives deep into Chinese history.
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: It's a must listen if you want to understand China
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: beyond the headlines. Karl brings a unique perspective through his
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: deep historical lens and sharp analysis, and he has a
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: knack for cutting through mainstream noise. He also regularly speaks
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  Speaker 2: with experts from around the world, dissecting complex issued with clarity,
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  Speaker 2: the kind of clarity that most of us only get
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: after three or four coffees. So, without further ado, the
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  Speaker 2: man who makes your politics feel like a casual conversation,
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  Speaker 2: Carl Ja, thank you for being here. Karl, great to
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: be talking to you.
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  Speaker 1: How have you been, Thank you, Ali, Thank you for
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  Speaker 1: that lovely intro. It's a pleasure.
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  Speaker 2: Thanks for taking the time to talk to me. So
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  Speaker 2: China must be very happy looking at what America is
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  Speaker 2: trying to do. And Trumps declared his fifth victory in
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  Speaker 2: four weeks now, so I'm guessing China must be thinking that, Okay,
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  Speaker 2: if this is the victory that Trump likes, they've got
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  Speaker 2: nothing to worry about if they can't even handle it around.
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  Speaker 1: That's correct. But first of all, China, China is not
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  Speaker 1: happy because you know, for China, it's top priority is
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  Speaker 1: actually regional stability, because you know, China do have a
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  Speaker 1: lot of investment in the Gulf region and right now
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  Speaker 1: all that is is being on hold, and so so
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  Speaker 1: this is why China has issued multiple calls for return
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  Speaker 1: to negotiation. But of course, you know, the the real
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  Speaker 1: problem is the people who really started this conflict. This
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  Speaker 1: is Israel and the United States. And you know, right,
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  Speaker 1: Trump has issued a statement he said he will put
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  Speaker 1: on a hold on bombing of runs energy grid for
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  Speaker 1: for about ten days. This came right after he tweeted
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  Speaker 1: a couple of days ago said he gave you around
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  Speaker 1: forty eight hours ultimatum if Iran don't surrender, he will
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  Speaker 1: bomb Iran's energy grid. And the Iran announced that if
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  Speaker 1: that happens, they will retaliate against regional desalination plans and
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  Speaker 1: energy grid in return, and of course that will be
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  Speaker 1: a huge disaster for all the so called US allies.
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  Speaker 1: In the region, and that that's the reason Trump Trump
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  Speaker 1: backed down. But one thing I'm a little bit worried
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  Speaker 1: is the Trump is just buying time because this is
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  Speaker 1: what Trump does. He right before Monday, when the market
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  Speaker 1: opens in the United States, he will make a statement says,
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  Speaker 1: we want the piece is coming, and you know, the
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  Speaker 1: market rally, the oil falls, and then on Friday, you know,
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  Speaker 1: when after the market clothes, he would say, okay, we
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  Speaker 1: were to resume bombing, and and that this is not
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  Speaker 1: the first time he did it. You know, there's a
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  Speaker 1: lot of market irregularities. You know, just before Trump's tweet
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  Speaker 1: this Monday, before the market open Monday, people saw there
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  Speaker 1: was a huge bet over five hundred million dollars bet
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  Speaker 1: to short oil and long stocks. You know, this is
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  Speaker 1: so blatant. This is not again, this is not the
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  Speaker 1: first time this has happened. This this happened during the
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  Speaker 1: tariff war as well. People were making huge bets just
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  Speaker 1: before you know, Trump make the news public. And but
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  Speaker 1: what I'm worry about is that, uh, you know, beyond
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  Speaker 1: market manipulation, which is to be expected from someone like Trump,
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  Speaker 1: is Trump is buying time for the arrival of US
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  Speaker 1: ground forces in the region because we know that tum
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  Speaker 1: has sent has ordered the Marine Expeditionary Units from UH
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  Speaker 1: that was stationed in Okay now Japan to sail to
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  Speaker 1: where UH toward to be near to tour Irang. And
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  Speaker 1: they will arrive in position in about seven days time
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  Speaker 1: next week. And and again there's reports that the eighty
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  Speaker 1: second Airborne has also been deployed UH. And and there's
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  Speaker 1: the news the Pentagon announce they're gonna, they're gonna, they're
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  Speaker 1: gonna now increase the age threat threshold for signing up
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  Speaker 1: for US military to forty two. You know, great news.
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  Speaker 1: I'm sure it's probably nothing. This worries me because this
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  Speaker 1: is exactly how the Vietnam War started, you know, Vietnam War.
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  Speaker 1: For people who don't know the US involvement in the
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: in the Vietnam War, you know, US was always involving
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  Speaker 1: in Vietnam War, you know, through support of the French,
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  Speaker 1: but the US ground combat UH. US involvement in the
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  Speaker 1: ground combat in Vietnam War started with Operation Rolling Thunder,
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  Speaker 1: which started with the fake false flag Gulf of Tonkin incident,
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  Speaker 1: which now we now know is totally bogus, that that
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  Speaker 1: Vietnam in fact did not attack the US warship in
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  Speaker 1: the Gulf of Tonkin Uh the second time, as they claim,
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  Speaker 1: but it was used as an excuse for the Congress
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  Speaker 1: to authorize US military involvement, and and and the Operation
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  Speaker 1: Rolling Thunder was also designed to be a air war
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  Speaker 1: air campaign, and as you know, they they they bomb
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  Speaker 1: North Vietnam extensively, all the infrastructure, rail, roll power plants.
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  Speaker 1: But in order to support this air war against Vietnam
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  Speaker 1: in nineteen sixty five, LBJ also sent thirty five hundred
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  Speaker 1: US Marines to Nan to secure the airport there, and
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  Speaker 1: just a few years later that figure blow up from
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  Speaker 1: thirty five hundred to a half million US troops. And
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  Speaker 1: that's not including all the US allies you know, from
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  Speaker 1: South Korea, from Australia, from all these other US client
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  Speaker 1: states that were sent to the region. So we could
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  Speaker 1: potentially be, you know, looking at a second Vietnam War
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  Speaker 1: right now. This is why I think the market was
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  Speaker 1: reacted prematurely to Trump. Like they always do, they keep
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  Speaker 1: on hoping we're going to return to normal in UH
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  Speaker 1: in a few days. I don't think that's a I
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  Speaker 1: don't think that's happening. We might be in this for
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  Speaker 1: the long haul. So even if even if the peace
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  Speaker 1: negotiations take place today and Iran to announce the straight
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  Speaker 1: or Hormus is to open today, you will take month
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  Speaker 1: months to restore all the energy infrastructure in the region.
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  Speaker 1: So in the meantime, Uh, many countries in the world,
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  Speaker 1: they do not have month long supply of fuel. Uh
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  Speaker 1: you know, I saw you know, places like India there
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  Speaker 1: from there a few days away from running out of
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  Speaker 1: their their their their supply of fuels. Uh. Uh. There's
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  Speaker 1: places like Philippines, South Korea, Japan that's heavily dependent on
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  Speaker 1: hydrocarbon coming from from the Gulf. Uh. You know, some
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  Speaker 1: countries are better shielded. Japan do have a bit of
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  Speaker 1: a strategic oil reserve, but other country you know, not
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  Speaker 1: so lucky. So and this this could be have dire
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  Speaker 1: consequences for the global economy because uh, you know, fuel
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  Speaker 1: is not only needed for transportation, but you know, hydrocarbon
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  Speaker 1: is also what we used to make plastics and chemical fertilizers. Uh. Now,
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  Speaker 1: now it's a planting season, it's spring. The farmers are
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  Speaker 1: uh you know right now is trying to plant the
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  Speaker 1: crop for this coming year, and they need a lot
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  Speaker 1: of fertilizers. And you know by this, the the you know,
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  Speaker 1: one major component for the fertilizer is nitrogen. That's that's
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  Speaker 1: uh that's extracted from the gas in Middle East and
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  Speaker 1: the world gets twenty percent of its natural gas supplies
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  Speaker 1: fun Katar. That supply has been taken offline now and
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  Speaker 1: and the beyond. Beyond fertilizers, which could potentially cause famine,
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  Speaker 1: we also have a shortage of helium. Again, it's also
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  Speaker 1: sensitized from gas from from the Gulf, mostly from Qatar,
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  Speaker 1: which means without helium, taiwans my conductors cannot make advanced
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: amans advanced my conductor chips, which it's pretty dire for
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: the AI bubble. Actually that might be a good thing
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: because you know, all these to sustain the current, the
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: current AI bubble in the United States, they have to
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: constantly build more data centers and and and and and
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: consume more micro chips. But you know, the heliums the
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: healing supply is not simply not there. This is the
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  Speaker 1: reason why US has waiver sanctioned against both and you're
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  Speaker 1: run in oil and gas because because United States realized
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  Speaker 1: that they need to increase supply to their so called
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  Speaker 1: partner countries, especially the countries in Asia. Australia is days
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  Speaker 1: away from running out of jet field. You know, they
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  Speaker 1: depend thirty two percent of their jet field from imports
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  Speaker 1: from China, and China just said, hey, we can't, we
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  Speaker 1: can't export now, we have to keep all the fuels
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  Speaker 1: to ourselves. So China banned the export of refined patrol
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  Speaker 1: in products like gas, diesel and jet field. So so
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  Speaker 1: Australia right now is in talks with Singapore in trying
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  Speaker 1: to secure their jet fields. And yeah, it's a it's
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  Speaker 1: going to be it's going to be pretty bad for
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  Speaker 1: a lot of people around the globe. We but but
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  Speaker 1: but then we have a you know, a a do
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  Speaker 1: fist in the White House that's just spending all this
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: time manipulating the markets. And he seems to be committed
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  Speaker 1: to to send the ground force now because I was hoping,
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  Speaker 1: you know, that was his harpball negotiation tactic. But the
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  Speaker 1: amount of the true movement that's headed toward West Asia
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  Speaker 1: make it seem unlikely. But but nevertheless, it will be
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  Speaker 1: a disaster. People will say, well, okay, well thirty five
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  Speaker 1: hundred marines and you know, to even add more eighty
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  Speaker 1: second airborne. Some special forces won't make much difference. That's true,
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  Speaker 1: It's true. But that's this is the this is the thing.
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  Speaker 1: When they went into Vietnam War, Pentagon also knew this
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  Speaker 1: is a war that cannot win. You those is going
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  Speaker 1: to be a war of attrition that they cannot win.
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  Speaker 1: Yet they keep on plowing resource into it because there's
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  Speaker 1: no political will to stop it. And for people who
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  Speaker 1: are younger, you know, like our generation, people would have
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  Speaker 1: remembered Obama's search, right, that is the same idea, let's
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  Speaker 1: let's let's just search our let's just increase our forces
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  Speaker 1: to do one last push and the TA will break
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  Speaker 1: the Taliban. And that this is the most dangerous thing
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  Speaker 1: right now, that US will keep climbing this escalation ladder,
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  Speaker 1: that will pretty that will widen the war. And for Israel,
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  Speaker 1: you know, they they have been calling this, they have
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  Speaker 1: been calling this war for decades. They finally get got
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  Speaker 1: a US president who is either gullible or compromise enough
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  Speaker 1: to go forth with it, you know, you know, since
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  Speaker 1: the Islamic Revolution in nineteen seventy nine, seven US president
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  Speaker 1: have reason listed Israeli pressure to go to war with
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  Speaker 1: Iran because every new everyone knew it will be disastrous
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  Speaker 1: because Uran will be able to close down the street hormones.
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  Speaker 1: This is not a secret. Everybody knew about it. But
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  Speaker 1: I think now we have reports coming out that Trump
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  Speaker 1: was basically being briefed on the progress of war by
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: like essentially TikTok reels right the people, compilation short clips
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  Speaker 1: from Pentagon strikes and telling him we're making progress, We're
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: hitting you wrung hard. And that gave him the illusion
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  Speaker 1: of victory or that the victory is at hand. And
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: also I think their previous operation against Venezuela also gave
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  Speaker 1: them the you know, make them overconfident. They thought they
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  Speaker 1: could replicate their success by doing it decapitation strike against
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  Speaker 1: Iranian senior leadership and then the rest of Iranian government
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  Speaker 1: will follow in. What they haven't accounted for is, you know,
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  Speaker 1: people in Iran in particular, they have a culture martyred
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  Speaker 1: and and that's what we saw, you know, the senior
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  Speaker 1: leader comment age. He did not hide in a bunker.
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  Speaker 1: He went through his normal life. In his last moment,
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  Speaker 1: he spent it with his family, with his daughter, granddaughter
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  Speaker 1: and son in law when they were all killed. Because
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: he probably accepted what was coming. He was eighty six
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  Speaker 1: years old. He knew his death will turn him into
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  Speaker 1: a martyr, will be a rally cry for the Iranians.
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  Speaker 1: And that's exactly what happened before. Now we have reports
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: coming out that says Mozart was extensively involved in stirring
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: up the Iranians civil unrest, the protests that happened proceeding
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  Speaker 1: to the war, and after the war started, ordinary Iranians
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  Speaker 1: have all rallied around the flag. Protests disappeared from the street.
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  Speaker 1: They all have solidified their support around their government. You know,
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  Speaker 1: don't believe what those Iranian diaspora are saying from from
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: America or Sweden. They they represent. They do not represent
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  Speaker 1: the majority of Iranian people who are who are very
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: patriotic about their country. So at this point, the whole
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: war aim of starting this conflict, which for Israel was
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: to destabilize you wrong and possible regime change is looking
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: increasingly unlikely. And now they have tried to shift their
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: goal posts by saying the goal is now to open
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the strat over moves, which by the way was open
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: before they started attacking Iran. And I think Marco Rubio
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: just made another remark says oh Iran could open trade
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: of hormose tomorrow. Well, of course we all know that
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: water is wet. Uh. Iran has proven itself to be
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: a major power through this conflict. You know, there's a
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: there's a quote fund from the book due by the
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: Protagonist power treatise. He said, those who can destroy a
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: thing controls it. Well, Iran just proved to the whole
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: world they actually do control the strait of hormos to
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: control the flow of hydrocarbons coming out of Golf. Uh.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: And that's what United States have to deal with right now. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: This is a this is a disaster for the whole
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: for for the whole world. But there's some silver lining,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Like you pointed out, the fact that US is getting
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: its nose bloody in the Gulf makes it less likely
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: that will try something stupid with China because China has magnitude,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: more missiles and more advance missiles. Uh. You know, all
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: these US bases has gone up in smoking West Asia.
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  Speaker 1: Guess what that would be the fate of US basis
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: throughout East Asia, you know, whether in Korea, Japan, or
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: the Philippines. Now, all the all these so called US
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: ally countries have to revaluate the relationship with the empire.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: You know, do they want to be a target? You know,
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: the whole premises of joining the US led imperial system
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: is that US is supposed to extend their security umbrella
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: to protect you. But now the reality is it's the opposite.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: It makes the US been participating in the US Empire, makesure,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: makes it a liability rather that resident protection. And right
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: now US is literally stripping. Stripping is a military asset
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: in East Asia in order to ship them to to
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: West Asia to come from Iran. You have the fat
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: interceptors being dismantled in South Korea. They're sending the Marines
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: that were stationing Okinawa again to Iran. And people also
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: saw what US priority is. You know, you have South Korea,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: this is a world's top ten economy. Yet US just
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: don't care about them, you you know, for US top
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: are he always remained the golden boy Israel. They don't
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: care if you are if you are are you know,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: like like they just realize all these so called US
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: allies in the region, they just realize they're they're on
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: the bottom of the food chain, you know, they are
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: not that important on the US priority list, they cannot
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: compete for attention with Israel. That will also have to
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: make them to re evaluate their their relationship with with
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: United States. The Philippines. The Philippines which has been a
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: lynchpin of US strategy to contain China in South China Sea,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: the Filipino President Bamba Marco just announced that he wished
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: to have a reset of the relationship uh with China
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: and he is hoping to restart the joint cooperation between
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: China and the Philippines to explore oil and gas, drove
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: for oil and gas in the in South China Sea.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Or because Philippine is desperate. They don't have a large
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: reserve and they heavily depend on the fuel coming out
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: of the golf. So now, Bombo, this is the reason
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: for mon bomb Marcos to do the one hundred and
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: eighty terms to say, okay, China, let's let's be friends again,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: let's let's drove for oil in our region. Yeah, this
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: is this is have a This is going to have
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: a lot of geopolitical ramifications all around the world. You know,
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: First he shows that you West Empire system is essentially
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: a paper tiger. And two the Iran is emerging as
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: a clear dominant regional power in West Asia. And on
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: top of that, you know US is the one that's
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: that's screwing everybody right now. You know I'm going on ran,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: so feel free to step in any time, no questions.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: It's great, it's great. But I mean, imagine what Iran
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: could have done if it hadn't been sanctioned. Because I've
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: always maintained Iranians are very smart people and there is
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: a reason why they have never been colonized. I had
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: a Persian empire, and I was talking to Larry C. Johnson,
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: x CIA, analyst and a spy. He said that, and
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: he I talked to him in January. He told me
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: in January that there will be an attack on Iran
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: by Israel and USA. He was very confident because of
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: his inside sources. But he said that in order for
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: Era Forum It's Royal and US to make meaningful destruction
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: and regime chain, they need to send at least one
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: million troops in Iran and they have to be prepared
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: for heavy casualties. Israeli is not going to send any
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: troops in Iran, so it has to be allies, Australia,
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: UK America, who would have to send one million people.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: But even if you send one million people, that topography
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: is such that hilly areas, all that kind of stuff, landmines.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: It's not it's like Vietnam on steroids. And like you
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: rightly said, I mean, Pentagon knew they would never win
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: in Wevietnam. But because of the military industrial complex pressure
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: that was pumping money, I mean there was printing money. Actually,
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: they didn't want to pull out. And if you look
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: at America's achievements right now, what they've done is in
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: Afghanistan they've replaced Taliban with Taliban after twenty years. In Iran,
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: they replaced a comedy with comedy after six days. And
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: like you mentioned, Straight of hor Moves was open, so
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: they managed to close it, close it for themselves and
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: for their allies. And now the objective has shifted that
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: they want to open it, which was already opened before
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: the war. So it's a I think Trump didn't really
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: think that Iranians would fight back, and I think the
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: advice and information that he was getting from his close
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: circle friends was that okay, if you decapitate, everything would
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: collapse like it did in Venezuela. But Iranians are smart people.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: If you look at the different layers of government and
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: decentralized way of you know, fighting the war, they've proven
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: that they're very smart people. I mean in science and
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: technology as well, and military know how. And it's their country,
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: they know how to defend it.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: I mean their leadership. Look at their leadership. You know,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: they're all like PhD in County Exclish. You know, I
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: don't think Donald Trump has read the book in his life.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: Maybe his own books are the deal, uh you know himself. Yeah,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: I'm sure, I'm sure he did not, right, and uh,
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: it's it's a joke. The people like Trump and Pete Hedgset,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: the US Secretary of War, they were literally they were
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: literally TV show hos. You know, US is literally ruled
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: by bad TV personalities right now. And and Iran is
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Uran's leaders are all like philosophers, engineers and highly educated.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: And you know this, this, this is an asymmetric warfare
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: right here. You know, US was able to do what
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: it could is because US itself has aboundant natural resources.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: US is blessed geographically by having two oceans as its mode,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: so so U s homeland. US as very secure and
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: this but because of this. You know, US government feel
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: it has the leewaight to cause great disruptions around the world.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: But but you know, there's there there will be blowback.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: There's there's blowback already, uh, in terms of rising prices.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: The because because you know, the global economy is is
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: all connected. You know, oil rise. Oil is a global
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: traded fundible commodity. When you cut off supplies from one,
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: you know, twenty percent of the world supplies, the price
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: is going to rise worldwide, not just outside of the
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: United States, but in US as well. US oil company
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: might make a lot of money, but the ordinary working
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: class American they were going to have to pay pay
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: the price. And and again, like I said that the
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: fertilizer issue is probably the most important right now because
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: you know a lot of people depended on those fertilizers
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: and out now they're not no longer coming. Uh. You
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: know this that this is this is really really bad.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: And and and and people like Trump, I think the
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: problem is, you know, they they they they actually knew.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: There are people in US who knew what Uron's capability are.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: They have done war games against Iron multiple times, and
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: you all ended up with you know, US getting its
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: nose bloodied, and you know we we are. We noticed
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: the result of the war games because it has been
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: extensively reported in mainstream media and Wall Street Journal during
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: the last twelve day war also reported that US has
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: depleted its missile interceptors by twenty five percent. There's that
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: missile interceptor. We're done by twenty five percent in the
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: twelve days war. Now we're in what day twenty six,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: twenty seven of this new war, and and now they're
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the reports coming out one third of their UH, one
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: third of their their their missile interceptor has been used up.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: So so US is going to have serious, serious, serious
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: issue to even continue this air air war campaign because
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: they you know, they're running out of missile interceptors. Iran
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: has been very very good this time, you know, even
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: compared to the twelve days work because they took out
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: all the radars. So all the US air defense are
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: going blind. You know, they're they're there's that they're one
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: billion dollar fat launchers is useless without radar and you
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: ran you know where to hit, what to hit? Uh,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: they have so so the fat launchers United States have
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: deploy total of eleven or around the world. Iran was
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: able to take out the radars of a four four
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: bad launchers in the Gulf region. This is why United
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: States have to dismantle their fat system from South Korea
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: and ship them to West Asia. And Uran has We
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: know Uran has more missiles and Ran can make more
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: because they have made they have taken shipments from China
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: from the chemical precursors that's necessary to make more missiles.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: This was reported again in Wall Street journals. Uh, the
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: China has shipped you Ran with some material to make
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: missiles both before and after the Twelve Days War, whereas
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: China still maintained a rare earth ban on the United
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: States military industrial complex. So each each that miss out,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: each patret missile they use up, they're not going to
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: be able to reple replenish them anytime soon. That is
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: a symmetric warfare, and this is why they're now have
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: They're they're trying to escalate. I saw Israel just attack
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: the Irani importing the CASSIPNC. That's where Iran was getting
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: supplied by Russia through the Castip and C and that's
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: that's a little bit concerning. I think I suspect that
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: that that the Israel may have got it access through
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: air base to countries like uh Artur Baijiang allow them
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: to fly them through because if you look at their
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: air campaign so far, most of their hits up to
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: this point has been concentrated on the west side of Iran.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: So what that means is they they do not have
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: air spurity over Iran yet. You know, they have their
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: their planes load up with standoff munitions like cruise missiles
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: and fly as close as possible to the Iranian border
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: and then launch those cruise missiles and there again their
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: cuise missile supply is also limited. You know, their standoff
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: munitions also getting getting diminished. So the US hope, well,
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: according to Pete Headset, is we will gain air spirity
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: over Iran in the coming days. Well he said that
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: last week. Uh so far that still hasn't happened. That
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: you know, they were hoping like once they gain air
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: spirity over Iran, they will be able to fly their
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: plane directly inside the Iranian airspace and they will be
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: able to use a down bombs those you know bombs
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: that that don't have guidance system or or or even
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: the laser guided bombs, you know, not the cruise missiles
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: which is much more expensive to manufacture and hard for
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: them to replentage. You still have plenty of a lot
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: of art, you know, in their arsenal that has plenty
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: of down bombs, but so far that has not happened.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: They have even a month into the war, they have
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: not gained air spirity inside the Iranian airspace. And URAN
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: saw that they have answered, you know, even too stealth
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: fighters such as F thirty five. Yeah, this is wheah,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: this is why you know, they have been doing what
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: US have been doing. What they're doing. They try to
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: just get close as run in border fires, some missiles
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: and run away, and and and and even so they
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: still keep on losing planes. You know, I just saw
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: another report of F eighteen going down. More F fifteens
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: are going down. So so URAN still maintained credible air
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: defense even a month into the war. So so that's
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: that's very impressive. And I hope you know, they keep going.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: But the ground invasion is just a fantasy. They deployed.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Let's remember they they had an extensive air campaign against
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: against North Vietnam. Uh, they bumped everything schools, hospitals, railroad factories,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: and they half million American troops into Vietnam. I'm not
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: even counting the Ally troops, and yet they could not win.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: They could not win Vietnam during the time of Vietnam War.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: Has a much smaller population, and it's also much smaller
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: geographically than Iran. Iran is actually a big country. It
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: has it's a country of ninety million people and it
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: has very unforgiving terrains. So it's the whole idea that
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: somehow they're gonna send their troops to march on Tehran.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: That's that's a fantasy. That's just not gonna happen. What
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: they might do is they might if they were going
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: to do a ground operation. Uh, you know, they have
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: talked about taking over Cars Island, where you know, most
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: of the Iran's ninety percent of Iran so oil export
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: facility is located. But if you look at the map,
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: the Cars Island is deep inside the Persian Gulf. They
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: have to somehow make their way through the gauntlet of
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Straight of Hormuz in order to even travel there. It's
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: and and and and it's very close to the Iranian coast.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: So what they that I'm thinking that might the all
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: just talk about us going after Cars Island might be
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: a you know, a smoke screen might be a distraction
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: that being announcing this way ahead in advance. But they
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: might instead, they might go after Chappahar Ports, which is
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: outside of the straight or Hormuz, who is open access
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: to the Indian Ocean. You know, their relative has relatively
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: more flattered terrain, So so they might attempt to take
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: over the Chapahar port and try to push inland from there.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: But again, even there, it's it's a food's errand because
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: you know, one of the difficulty for you around to
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: develop Chappa Heartport, uh all these years, despite its excellent
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: location and despite you know, being an excellent natural harbor,
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: is because it's relatively isolated from the rest of the country.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: You have to cross a huge expanse of desert to
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: to to go anywhere. Uh. You know. That is actually
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: the route Alexander the Great took on his way back
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: to Persia when he decided to retrieve from in this valley,
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: and he lost anywhere between a quarter to a third
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: of his forces, you know, just just just wandering through
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: the desert this you know, I I, okay, what we
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: have modern logistics now, but I you know, it's still
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: a very difficult task. And I also have to remind people,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: you know, even for US to deploy a million troops
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: is to to West Asia's fantasy in the Gulf. During
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: the Iraq War, you US was able to deploy a
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: quarter million troops, you know, through by bye bye, by
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: stationing them in places like Saudi Arabia and all the
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: other Golf countries. But back then, us, even back then,
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: even even US had a lot more air army transport
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: ships that made the logistics possible. Well, right now, we
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: it's uh uh well it's now. Now we're like a
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: quarter century away from from the euro the begate start
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: of the Iraq War. They don't even have those number
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: of ships that possess during two thousand oh three anymore,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: you know, they they they simply lacked the kind of
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: the logistic capability they had before and and and and
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: you know, so far and so far, you know, remember
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: in the uh in the Bush had his coalition of willing.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: But so far, you know, I I think, uh, I
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: don't know, maybe they can get a couple of Baltic
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: countries to sign up. I don't see how how they're
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: gonna finangle to drag the other country along with it.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: You know, maybe you know they they did manage to
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: get UK to allow US to use their use their bases,
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: but I cannot see they convinced the other Natal country
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: to send send ground troops. I mean even that they do.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: US is the largest military inside NATO. If US cannot
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: do it, do you I you know, by by tagging
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: along some French and German ships and and and a
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: few thousand forces from from these uh ally countries not
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: going to make a difference. Uh, you know.
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: It's fighting Russians in Ukraine. Yeah, they're having difficulty getting
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: their own people to join the army because their own
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: people are saying, why are we going to fight Russians
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: in Ukraine? So yeah, I think the geopolitical shift that
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: may happen is very very telling because in Australia, what
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: they are saying is that Australia is not ready for
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: a war if an attack happens on Australia. Now they
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: know that America is not going to help them. Now
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: they know America is not there. America was never anybody's ally.
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: All these countries that call America an ally, all these
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: countries I call them watchdogs or you know, lapdogs of
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: America so they've seen how America has taken the TAT
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: system from South Korea and given it to Israel. Eel.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: America hasn't even defended its own military bases in the
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: Gulf countries. In fact, it has transferred the defense system
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: to Israel. Its main priority, like you mentioned, is to
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: protect Israel, not its allies, the Gulf countries that actually
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: pay America, not the Gulf countries that invest two trillion
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: dollars in America. So there's another point.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: It's worse than being lap dogs because you know, one
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: of the famous Taiwan uh talk show hos who has
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: passed away the who made a good point. He said,
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: you know, America want Taiwan to be it's a it's
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: it's a it's attack dogs in East Asia against China.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: But have you ever you know, even if but we're
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: worse than being dogs. You know what, because owners at
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: least feed their dogs, they at least give the dogs
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: food and doggie treat We in Taiwan are expected to
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: pay for American weapons. You know what, you you I
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: never heard of watchdogs being forced to pay for for
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: their own food and so so we're worse than than
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: than treated than than dogs. So that that is the
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: predicament of the so called US allies right now Australia,
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: you know, they're being paid through the nose for the
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Orchest program, which is supposedly gonna give Australia a nuclear submarine.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know in the twenty forties, I mean. And
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: but what it really does is it makes give the
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: United States access to Australia. So Australia have to construct
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: a nuclear submarine capable ports in Perth and in the
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: meantime US submarine will be able to base there. So
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: US is making Australia pay for the privilege being of
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: hosting US tubes on soil. And again, what does that
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: do That make Australia target. It pains Australia as a
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: target if a war does break out with China, you
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: know the same thing. You look at what's happening to Dubai,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: to to to all the GCC country right now, to
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Qatar to Kuwait. They are being they're coming under attack
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: by brager or running missiles. And China have magnitude magnitude
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: more missiles than youran, with further range and and better technology.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: So you know, so I think again, I said the
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: silver lining of this is that I think it makes
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: a conflict in West in Western Pacific with China much
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: less likely now because if the United States cannot take
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: on you wrong, you know, forget about China. It's not
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: gonna happen. That's true. And this is why I have
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: always maintained the so called pivot to Asia is just
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: a slogan. It's never gonna happen. They people need to realize.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: You know, a lot of the people, even in the resistance,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: they still picture US as a manipotent being that can
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: be anywhere at any time do anything. No, no, no,
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: us still have to obey the law of physics, the
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: law of supply and demand, all of logistics. They still
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: face resource constraints and and and it's even more obvious
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: now than ever. You know, US do not have what
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: it takes to be a global hedge amount. You cannot
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: be at all places at all times. And it's been
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: challenged by Iran. Who thought? Who thought that Iran is
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: the one that get to decolonize West Asia? You know,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: US and NATO troops are now pop polling out of
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Iraq after what like twenty six years, twenty three years,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: and and it's you know, due to to Irans and
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Iran supported Iraqi militias. Finally, the only presidents they have
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: now is in the northern Iraq, in the Iraqi Kurdistan area.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: I think this is a this like the like, you know,
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: Uran's demand for ending the war is also for US
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: to pull out the region, which I never thought would
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: see happen. But I you know, I just don't see
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: any other way wrong for US, not, you know, like
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: because there's no I mean, US can can can choose
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: to prolong this war just because simply US have still
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: have a lot of resources, its homeland is not under attack,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: but it's going to make all the US allies in
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: the region and around the world to pay an increasingly
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: steep price, you know, and that put incredible strain on
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: the US empire system.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think one of the interesting things that is
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: coming out of this is because China, like you mentioned,
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: controls the rear supply, it also controls the supply of
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: tungsten has a high melting point and is used in weapons.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: So by stifling the supply of tungsten, it's making it
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: really difficult for Locked Martin rethe on companies like that
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: manufacturer weapons that use tungsten, so they might run out
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: of these weapons very soon. Also, it hasn't really dented
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: Iran's oil revenues at all because prior to Wall, prior
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: to the war, Iran I think was exporting one point
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: one million barrels at forty dollars. Now it's exporting one
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: point five million barrels per day at ninety dollars. So,
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: I mean they've just doubled their oil revenue in a
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: span of four weeks.
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, and they got their sanction lifted. They got
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: the US sanction against the lifted exactly.
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: So this is all going topsy turvey for America, which
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: is why all this And also the America is a
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: very corrupt country. So they've asked for two hundred billion dollars.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: How much of that two hundred billion dollars would go
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: into the pocket of you know, corrupt military people. Because
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: Pentagon hasn't even passed a single accounting audit, they will
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: need more and more money I guess. So it's it's
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: not looking really good for America.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is that that had this. This war
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: shows it. You know, yourang has a much much smaller
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: defense budget than United States, and they are you know,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: and there's you nothing, not much US can do uh
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: right now because you are The whole point of US
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: military industrial conflict is not to win wars. Uh Assane
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: pointed this out back in during the Afghanistan War. He said, no,
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: they're not in it to win. The whole point of
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: Afghanistan war is not to win in Afghanistan. The whole
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: point is to wash vast sum of money from the
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: tax basis of North America and Europe into the pocket
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: of a small group of transnational security. This is why
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: they locked up Assage. You know, they're putting this is
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: why they're putting in solitary confinement because he spoke the truth.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: That's the and and this we're seeing right now. You know,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: with all the the US has forth the most advanced
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: aircraft carrier in the US Navy now is being towed
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: back to ports. And they say it's going to be
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: you know, you might take fourteen months to repair the damage,
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: which just means it's probably going to be out of
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: service for two years. And you know, the official narrative,
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: it's still it's caused by a laundry room fire. But
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: a laundry room fire that took them thirty hours to
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: put out and burn up all the beds of the
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: of the sailors and they have to sleep on deck
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: and you will take them two years to fix. I mean,
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: at this point it's less embarrassing for them just to
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: admit the iranness. I'll hit us and to come up
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: with all these with crazy stories. Yeah, I mean, it's
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: we are I mean, yeah. So the sad part is
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: the world will have to suff because the closure of
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: the Strait of Hormuz. But the silver lining is that
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: we are now seeing the limit of the US Empire,
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: and I think this is the beginning of an end
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: of the US empire presence in West Asia. You know,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: I just don't see a way for them to achieve
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: their goal, which is, you know, either regime change or
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: complete destabilization of Iran at this point. Yeah.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: But I mean what it has shown the world is
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: that they might be shifting global alliances. And also the
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: rise of Petro one so Iran I said, Okay, they're
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: taking one petro dollar. No, they're cutting out petro dollar.
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: And apparently countries are paying in one. India paid in
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: one Pakistan obviously, many other countries are paying in one
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: so I think again, America has single handedly destroyed its
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: reputation and the American problems are of their own making.
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: This was an easily avoidable situation. But I think Israel
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: is still once more on Nathaniel who said that, oh, yeah,
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: the war, it's gonna end when we tell the war.
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: And so I don't think America can do anything because.
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is why, this is why Israel has
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: pushed into southern Lebanon. Right now, the AP just just said, oh,
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: we're now gonna officially call uh israel encourasion into southern
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: Lebanon invasion. Here's the reason. I'm like, look, you so
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: you're finally reporting the facts, and you're you're telling us
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: why you are now reporting the facts. But for Israel's
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: goal has always been that they never means words about it.
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: They have always been pushing for the greater Israel project.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: You're wrong, remain the biggest obstacle for them to realize
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: their uh, you know, greater Israel from from Niles to Euphrates.
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: So you know, this is why you e might have
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: Israeli minister coming out and say, oh, Turkey will be next,
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: because the Turkey is you know, after youran Turkey will
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: be the last regional power standing in the way of Israel.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: This is nuts, This is completely nuts. But we also
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: know that Israel by itself cannot do it. They lacks
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: the capability to do it. This is why they have
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: to drag United States into it. You know, they succeeded, this,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: succeeded this time. I mean I I can't imagine. You
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: know what kind of material they have over over Trump.
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: You know, this must be some really ghastly stuff in
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: the in the Epstein file that haven't been released. But
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: but here we are. We are United States is destroying
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: itself its own empire again for its golden ball Israel.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: I mean I I because this is not a This
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: is a war. This is existential war for Iran. It's
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: a war of its own choosing for the United States,
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: Iran does not present it because essential threat to the
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: United States that Trump chose to start this war. And
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: and you know, mostly for Israel that this is this
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: is this This will end badly. I mean, without without
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: the United States. If US do with rufun West Asia,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, Israel will have to fend for itself. I
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: mean it's I don't think you will be able to
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: you know, come from Iran on its own.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: No, wait, what happening. Isralia is good at Israli, It
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: is good at killeginnocent unarmed civilians. It has never sent
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: its army in any other country, like it didn't send
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: its army in Iraq, in Libya, not in Iran. Also,
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: but I was listening to Colonel Douglas McGregor from my aera.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: He said that Israel's defenses are down an eight out
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: of ten Iranian missiles are landing on targets in Israel
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: now every day. That's massive eighty percent hit rate from Iran.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: So I mean they're they're suffering. But I think they
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: don't want to end the war because they see this
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: as their only chance to destabilize Iran. But what's also
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: telling is all these Gulf countries, they u E and
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia came out a couple of days ago, and
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: they still say that they want more American military basis.
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: So there is absolutely no Arabian pride.
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think this is a it's like, this
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: is a a lost investment fallacy, sink sink sunk investments. Yeah, fallacies.
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: Because sun costs, the sun costs.
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: They have been tied themselves on the American war wagon
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: for so long. You know, they base them you know,
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: the whole post war security order in West Asia dependent
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: on their their client relationship with the United States, you know,
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: including the support for the Petro dollar, you know, because
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: as you mentioned, finance is one of the main leg
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: of the US empire other than military and technology, right
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: and and for them, they have too much invested in
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: the United States and they just can't see themselves letting
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: go that because they have been so comfortable for so long,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: getting rich profiting off of that relationship that they cannot
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: for they cannot seeing an alternative. This is why they're
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: doubling down, because they're scared. They're scared if the United
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: States does leave. You know, they are not ready, they're
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: not ready to accept a new order in West A
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: where it will be dominated by Iraq, you know, which
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: they had for decades, you know, helping us to contain
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: to sanction, to strangle. So that's that's what it is.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: You know, it's prompt by fear to have them to
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: duck into their heels and double down. But you know,
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: sooner or later, the reality they will have to face reality.
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: You know, I just don't see how US can continue
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: this sustainably over the long term for all the reasons
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: that were listed about YEA.
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: And also these Gulf countries don't really have any energy
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: self sufficiency. I mean, if you look at China, China
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: has been really really smart how it has progressed over
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: the years. It's got like the total energy eighteen percent
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: is produced by renewables, but electricity is around thirty high
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: percent from renewables. So it's been really smart the way
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: it has progressed. Whereas these Gulf countries, despite having all
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: these u large packs of cash, they haven't really invested
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: that much and inchology, infrastructure.
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: They're they're rich because of the hydrocarbon resources. Okays, what
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: they can't they can't sell those hydrocarbon resource Like before,
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: now you can't eat oil, you cannot you cannot eat
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: oil or gas. You know, you cannot convert that into
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: into food or water. Uh, if you cannot trade trade it,
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: and that's that's that's a that's a dilemma they have
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: right now. Right now, Saudi Arabia do have an alternative
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: pipeline that allows them to pipe oil and gas from
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: oil from the Persian Gulf region to the Red Sea coast.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: Uh it's it's a much smaller capacity, but there's some flow.
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: But so far this is because hooties uh ye many
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: haven't stepped in yet. Yeah yeah, yeah, man can easily
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: close down the Red Sea route as well. You know,
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: u A also built an alternative pipeline to prepare you know,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: to to bypass the strade or horn moves. This is
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: why Iran has been hitting u A very hard. They
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: they they made sure to shut down that US alternative
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: pipeline too, to the other side of the straight Horn moves.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Iran demonstrated that they do have control. They
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: are the ones in charge. That's that's what. What As
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: for China, uh you know, this is where China do
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: stand to benefit because there's now there's a lot of
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: golf money that looking for a way to get out
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: that they're looking for the golf capital will now look
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: for prime Before Dubai has kind of tried to build
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: itself as a financial capital financial of West Asia. And
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: you know, now now with with Dubai getting hit by
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: Iranian miss Souths and Jones, that that's that prospect of
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: it remained the financial hub is increasingly unlikely. So a
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: lot of these golf money will probably go toward Asia,
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: you know, either Southeast Asia or China. This has actually
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: been reported by Bloomberg. And because China presented itself as
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: a bed rock of stability right now, it's it's there's
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: there's no danger of war in East Asia and China
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: is is the anchor of peace and stability. And China
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: also on top of that, they have the control over
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: the industrial manufacturing supply chain, correct, So you know, more
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: capital will go to China, more capital will go to
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: Southeast Asia. That that's another you know silver lining if
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: you will fund this.
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and also with who is around thirty percent group
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: of world's internet passes through the internet cables across Red
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: Sea and who's won't they can just destroy everything, so
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: there will be no communication between that part of the
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: world and the rest of the world, no banking, no
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: financial transaction. That will be really really bad for the world.
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: If who he's tried to do that, if American Israel
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: try to prolong the war, not sure what's going to happen.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: I guess again, those who who can destroyer things controls it.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: You know, yea many show that they actually control the
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: Red Sea route, just as Uranians had demonstrated they control
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: the strait or Homos. So you know, that's that's what
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: isrue and the United States have to deal with at this.
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: Moment, right right, Thanks very much, Carl, has been pleasure
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: to talking to you. I'll give you the last word,
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: whatever you want to say.
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: I I After all that, I still hope the conflict
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: can wrap up quickly because my again, my concern is
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: for the negative impact on the rest of the world,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: especially the issue with chemical fertilizers, because you know, this
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: could cause food shortage across the globe, you know, but
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: the people in the Global South country will be hit
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: particularly hard. You know, a lot of people spend majority
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: of their income on food, particularly in the Global South,
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: and we're going to see price rise that we haven't
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: seen before. You know, we are basically heading back into
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: the era of oil shock in the nineteen seventies. And
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: in nineteen seventies, you know, back then it was the
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: OLPEC countries. You know, they they turned turned they turned off,
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: they turned the tap off. They didn't destroy the oil infrastructure.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: So this actually will likely be worse than the oil
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: shock of the nineteen seventies because we will pile, it
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: lasts longer, will take longer to bring everything back online.
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: And just remember back in back in the nineteen seventies,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: that actually pushed a whole series of changes are around
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: the globe. It caused that inflation in the United States,
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: people had to economize on the fuel usage. That actually
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: allowed the Japanese car car brands to dominate because they
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: were producing fuel efficient cars. This again, this is a
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: bonus for China because China is uh has the dominance
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: over EV right now. This is where another area where
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: Elamsk screwed up because he pioneered the ev EV industry
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: and then he decided to throw his support behind a guy,
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: a candidate who is anti EV and then destroy his
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: brand outside of the United States. And now we're at
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: a time where when when the people around the world'
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: is like, oh crap, we need evs and they're not
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: buying La Musk cars because you know, because his association
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: with Trump. So yeah, how it's funny how things work.
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks very much, Cayle, Thank you for taking the
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: time to talk to me.