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Week 5 2026 College Football Picks for the 10 Best Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's College Football Week 5, and we're going to pick
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: the 10 best games on the board against the spread.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: We've got two Friday-nighters, we've got a rivalry in Starkville
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: with two unbeatens, Ohio State is walking into Kinnick, and
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: we've got a line that moved 9.5 points off the
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: preseason opener. Welcome in, this is Winning Cures Everything, it's
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: a college football podcast. I'm your host, Gary Seegers, at
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: GaryWCE on all the different socials, and this is is
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: the 10 best. It is the 10 best games on
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the Week 5 college football board, broken down by the numbers,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: the trends, the injuries, the weather, etc. What my model
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: thinks versus what Vegas thinks. Quick housekeeping on how I
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: do this, because a lot of people have been asking.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: The lines are based on DK. No free ads, but still.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: As of Sunday night. Now when I say power rating,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: that's my market calibrated number. When I say stats model,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: that is the opponent adjusted stats projection. And when I
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: call a trend small, that means it's under 10 games. So,
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: you know, it might be fine, but I wouldn't bet
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: the house on it, right? All right, let me go
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: ahead and tell you to subscribe if you've not already
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: done that. Of course, ring the bell for notifications. We're
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: doing this every single week. The next 15 drops right
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: behind this one. All that good stuff. But hit subscribe,
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: jump in the comments. All that good stuff, all right?
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Let's go on and let's jump into our record thus
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: far on the season on the show picks. And here's
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: what we're looking at right now. Official show picks 54
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: and 39 against the number that is 58.1%. The model
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: picks have been better than me. 57 and 36 on
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: the season, 61.3%. Underdog picks 22 and 18. Not as
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: good with the dogs thus far this year, but that's 55%.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Last week went 13-12 overall. Model went 15-10. Dogs went
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: 3-3 in my picks. My 10 best last week, 5-5.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: The model went 7-3. Dogs went 1-2 in that. So
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: that's where we're looking right now. But for now, let's
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: go ahead and jump into the first game. Game number one,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Alabama going over to Starkville to take on the Mississippi
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: State Bulldogs. Right now, Alabama is a six-point favorite, total
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: of 60.5. This one's 11 a.m. Central Time, God's time
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  Speaker 1: zone on ABC. And, I mean, we, number seven, Alabama,
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: number 16, Mississippi State. This is awesome. Both teams are 4-0.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Both are 2-0 in the SEC. This is the first
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: time these two have met as top 20 teams since 2018.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Jeff Lebby has already matched the win total from his
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: first two seasons combined. State is 4-0 against the spread.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Not one ticket on the Bulldogs has lost this season.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Not too bad. Line opened, Bama minus 3. It is
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: all the way up to 6 now. The total crept
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: up to 60.5, so the market came in on the
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: tide and the points, which makes all the sense in
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: the world to me because my stats projected spread on
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: this is 79. Now, that's intense, obviously, but... I mean,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: you got two teams that have played top 15 strength
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: of schedules in the country thus far. Not too bad,
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: at least, at least per Sagarin's ratings, right? Uh, the quarterbacks,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: they're the whole show, right? Keelan Russell put up 400 yards,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: five touchdowns total against South Carolina last week, 49 to
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: 18 beat down there. Camario Taylor, he threw for 360
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: and three, uh, touchdowns in the comeback win over Missouri. Um,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Last time these two played was 2023 in Starkville. Bama
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: won that one 40-17. Alabama is 8-0 straight up, 7-1
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: against the number against state since 2016. It's a small sample,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: but it's a pretty big gap. My power ratings, as
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: you can see, has Bama minus 6.2. The stats model
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: has Bama minus 5.8. The market is 6. So on
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  Speaker 1: the side, my numbers say this line is dead on.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: There's no edge. But if you look at the total,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously I mentioned that 79 is what I've got.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: It was at 59.5. It's up to 60.5 now. It's
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: still the biggest total gap of any of my games
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: thus far. Both of these offenses are awesome. Bama is
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: number 15 in PPA per drive on offense. That is
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: predicted points added. State is number 14. Now, both of
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: these defenses are pretty good, but either way, I will
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: tell you the stats totals are running hot everywhere this week.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: This one's hot even compared to the others. And the
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: reason is pretty simple. Mississippi State is at number 6
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: in pace. Bama is at number 121. But Bama is efficient.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: And State wants a track meet. State number 18 in
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  Speaker 1: passing explosiveness, which you see right up here. Well, if
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: I can find it. So number 18 in passing explosiveness,
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Alabama number 124 in giving up explosives. That's not great.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: On the flip side, Mississippi State number 123 in takeaways
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  Speaker 1: per game. They were number 125 in penalties per game,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: number 128 in penalty yardage per game. You cannot flag
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: yourself out of drives against Alabama. That will go badly. Alabama,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: as far as trends go, Bama as a road favorite
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: of three or more. They are 6-14-2 against the spread
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: since 2021. DeBoer as a road favorite of under 10,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: 8-3-2 as a coach. So you kind of got to
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: pick your poison there. Mississippi State off of a straight-up win,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: 8-2 against the spread since 2024. State at home, 25-13
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: to the over since 2021, 8-3 over off of a
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: game that went under, which last week's did against Missouri.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: As far as injuries, Bama wide receiver Walker is questionable.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Not a huge thing. State is out two players with
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: leg injuries, defensive lineman Williams and the wide receiver Williams,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: plus the wide receiver Mitchell is questionable as well. Weather
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: looks good, 77 degrees, 52% chance of rain. We'll keep
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: an eye on that for the over. You could see
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: some buyback money if it looks more likely that it's
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: going to work. I... Again, the show pick on this,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: both teams are covering against the spread pretty well. Both
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: are 4-0. Bama 3-1 against the number. Didn't cover against
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Florida State, but they did hit the over. Like 50-36
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: was wild. State 4-0, but they have just way exceeded
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: expectations thus far. Both teams really good as far as
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: five factors plus strength of schedule plus talent. So they
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: do the things necessary to win games. State No. 6,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Alabama No. 3. That's a pretty big deal. Both teams
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: tend to play pretty well first half and second half.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: So as far as who can score, who can finish drives,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Alabama No. 4 in the country in points per scoring opportunity.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: State's defense No. 58. On the other side, State, number
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: 28 in points per scoring opportunity. Bama's defense, number 101.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: So Bama's defense, number 129 in defensive red zone touchdown rate.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Not great. Not great. I think this game is going
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: to come down to the wire. Absolutely down to the wire.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: There was a lot of love for Alabama in the market.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I understand where that's coming from. But this State team
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: is for real. They are absolutely for real. I think
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: six is maybe a bit much. So even though my
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: power rating says it should be a touchdown because it's
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: over six, my projected stats spread has a 5.8. I'm
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: going to go with the stats spread. I'm going to
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: take Mississippi State plus six on this. Don't forget, this
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: is a big look-ahead spot for Alabama. They've got Georgia
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: coming into Tuscaloosa the next week. So can you stay
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: focused enough on this one? That's what I'm curious about.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: So give me Mississippi State plus six in this. Game
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: number two, we're going to Kinnick Stadium, 2.30 Central on CBS.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Of course, God's time zone. Number five, Ohio State at
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: number 14, Iowa. Buckeyes minus 14 on this one. Total 45.5.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: It dipped to 13.5 on Sunday. Went right back up
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: to 14 again. Iowa 4-0. Just went into the big house.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: They beat Michigan 20-19 as a 4.5-point dog at close.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Most people got 5.5 throughout the week. Went out right.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Didn't matter. Ohio State, on the other hand, they beat
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Illinois 42-19. They did not cover the 25.5, which is
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: what it closed. Most people had 26.5, maybe 27 on
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: that one. But Illinois covered all the numbers. Everything was good.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Last meeting between these was 2024 in Columbus. Ohio State
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: won that one 35-7. The last time the Buckeyes came
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: to Iowa City, 2017, Iowa hung 55 points on them.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Kinnick don't care about your recruiting rankings at all. Also,
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I don't see any way that Iowa puts up 55
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: points here. No chance. That'll be my blood bank guarantee.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Iowa team total under 55 and a half. My power
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: rating on this, it has Ohio State minus 10.8. That
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: is a 3.2 points of value on Iowa. My stats model, uh,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: even louder. I mean, it's pretty wild. Ohio state minus two,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: basically here. That's a 12 point gap. Um, the reason
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: that that is so big as I was defense, right?
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: I would number one in the country and points per
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: drive allowed. Um, Let's see. Points per play. Iowa number
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: one there. Iowa's number one in scoring defense. Eight points
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: a game. You go all the way down here. Their
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: red zone appearances per game. Iowa only gives up one
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: red zone appearance per game. They are number one in
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: points a lot. Right there, eight points per game. Ohio
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: State's offense is number four in success rate, but they
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: are number 131 in drives per game. If you look
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: at their pace... number 53, but they just take a
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: long time to move down the field. Slow game, fewer possessions,
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: stuff like that's going to help the underdog. The problem
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: that I'm seeing here is that Iowa cannot throw the football.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: They are number 111 in yards per pass attempt. And
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: how funny that they won the game at Michigan. With
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: a 16-yard pass. And they had to have another pass
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: that bounced off of somebody. I mean, it was just
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: a whole thing. Ohio State's pass defense is number three
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: in yards allowed per pass attempt. So if Iowa gets behind,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: this game is over. Ohio State's first half point margin
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: is plus 23.8. That is third in the country. Now,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: luckily for Iowa, they're number 21 in first half point
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: margin at plus 10.8. So we'll see what happens there.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: As far as trends go on this, Ohio State on
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: the road 1-9 to the under since 2024. That is
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: a lot of unders. That is a lot of unders.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Iowa as an underdog, 5-18 to the under since 2021.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Iowa at home with a total from 45-49.5, 3-9 to
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: the under. So that is what we're looking at here.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: On the side, Ohio State off of a win. 19-8
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: against the spread since 2024. Ryan Day in October is
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: 17-6-1 against the spread. But Iowa on the other side,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: against the Big Ten, 13-5-1 against the spread since 2024.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: They cover a lot too. So the trends are pointing
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: to an under, but also my stats projected total on
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: this is 59, which is mind-blowing to me, but I
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: think it has a lot to do with efficiency. Ohio
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: State has four questionables in this one. The wide receiver, Parker,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: and Valerio Hudson. The running back, Bay. Defensive lineman, Grady.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Iowa's running back, Phillips Jr., questionable with an ankle. I
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: don't think any of these are going to make a
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: huge difference here. The weather on this, 63 degrees, light wind,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: 6% rain. Perfect October football weather in Iowa City. Perfect weather. Alright,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: so again, power rating has Ohio State minus 10.8. Projected
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: stat spread has Ohio State minus 2. Is this the
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: day that Kennett gets another one? I find it so
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: difficult to figure out whether or not Iowa is going
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: to have some kind of an emotional letdown. This thing
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: was at 14.5. It went all the way down to 13.5.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: It's back up to 14. So Ohio State minus 14
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: right now, but I'm going to say this is a letdown.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go against my model because you come
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: off of a game-winning drive, a game-winning last play at Michigan,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: and then you've got to come home and face Ohio State.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: I don't feel great about that. Don't feel great about that.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: So give me Ohio State. Minus 14 to cover on
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: the road here. I think they're fired up for this one.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: I think Iowa will be fired up, but it's tough
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: to get up off the mat when you had a
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: really big win like that. Tell me what you guys think.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Jump in the comments. Subscribe to Winning Cures Everything, of course.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: And tell me if I'm crazy. I'm going way against
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: the model here, which has done better than me this year.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I will take Ohio State. Minus 14. I
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: think that their offense can finish drives. I don't think
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Michigan's could. And I don't think that Iowa has played
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: anybody that has anywhere close to the level of athlete
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: that Ohio State's going to have on offense this week.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: And I don't trust that Iowa offense to be able
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: to finish drives or scores. What's the number on this? Iowa,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: number 82 in points per scoring opportunity. If you can't
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: finish drives, it's going to be tough to keep up
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: with Ohio State. It's going to be tough. Ohio State
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: minus 14 is the official show pit. Game number three,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: we head to Rocky Top. 2.30 p.m. Central on ESPN.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Auburn goes to number 17, Tennessee. Tennessee right now favored
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: by seven with a total of 53.5. Of course, early
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, it was Tennessee minus 7.5 with a total
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: of 54.5. Tennessee just lost 20-17 to Texas. They covered
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: as a 5.5 point dog. The ugly part, they had
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: 10 sacks. Colin Simmons for Texas had five by himself.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Heiple came out after the game, said the offensive line
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: and the quarterback were both not good enough. And that quarterback,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: Faison Brandon, he is on the injury report now. Questionable
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: upper body. He left in the second quarter. He was
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: grabbing his right shoulder. He came back. Heiple said he's healthy.
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: He's ready to play. Let's keep an eye on that
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: this week. Let's keep an eye on how that ends up. Auburn,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: 3-1 under first-year head coach Alex Golish. They are 1-3
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: against the spread. They beat Vandy last week, 21-15. Didn't
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: cover the 10. And Golish knows this building. He was
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: Heupel's offensive coordinator at UCF and at Tennessee before he
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: took the South Florida job. This is Auburn's first road
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: game of the season. So we've got to put that
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: into perspective here. The last meeting between these two was
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: in 2020. Auburn won that one 30-17. These two barely
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: see each other anymore. Barely see each other. The model
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: disagrees on this one. The power rating has Tennessee minus 5.7,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: so a little value on Auburn there. Stats model has
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Tennessee minus 11.64, so 4.6 points on the Vols on that.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: When they split like that, that's when you really got
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: to dive into the weeds and try and figure this
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: thing out. Auburn plays the fastest pace in the country.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: They are number one in pace, 2.75 plays per minute.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: That's crazy. 148 plays a game. Tennessee's passing game has
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: been just busted. I mean, you can see it all
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: right up here. Number 112 in PPA per pass. They're
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: number 81 in yards per attempt. Number 116 in pass rate.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: They don't pass it very much because they haven't needed
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: to in most of these games. They are number 93
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: in passing success rate. Number 106 in passing explosiveness. Uh,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: Number 103 in passing downs, predicted points added. Number 93
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: in passing downs, success rate. I mean, it's just all
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: over the place not good. Not good. Their red zone offense, though,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: is number 100. Or sorry, is number one at 100%.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: Auburn's red zone offense is number 113 at 75%. So
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: you start looking into who finishes drives. Tennessee, number five
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity. Auburn's defense, number 78. Auburn's offense,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: number 58 in points per scoring opportunity. Tennessee's defense, number 11.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Auburn throws picks a lot. Byron Brown, anytime he gets pressured,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: and he will get pressured here, they're number 130 in
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: interception rate. They're number 87 in giveaways per game. Yeah,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: interceptions per pass attempt, number 120. for Auburn. Tennessee's defense
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: number 56 in picking off passes. Something to pay attention
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: to when you're looking at turnovers and stuff like that.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: It certainly changes things with the five factors. Raw rank,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Auburn number 71, Tennessee number 26. The difference here, when
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: you add in strength of schedule, talent rank, etc., Auburn
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: ends up number 15, Tennessee ends up number 19. The
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: reason for that is because Auburn Number 13 strength of
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: schedule in the country, Tennessee number 62. When you play
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: Kennesaw and Furman and this year's Georgia Tech team, you know, yeah,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: they played Texas, but Auburn has played Baylor, they've played Florida.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: Alabama State obviously hurts that strength of schedule a little bit,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: but they've also played Florida. Like, Auburn, they've been through it.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: They've been through it. Oh, Southern Miss. Southern Miss was
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: the other one. So Southern Miss... Alabama State, Florida, and Baylor.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: So Tennessee, lighter schedule is what it is. As far
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: as trends go, Tennessee straight up as a home favorite,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: 29-2 since 2021. They always seem to win these games.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Against the spread as a home favorite, since 2024, they
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: are 4-10. They win the games, they don't cover them.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: Normally the spread is a lot larger than this. Auburn
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: off of a straight up win, 2-9-1 against the spread
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: since 2024. Auburn in SEC games, they are 5-13 to
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: the under. And you want to get nerdy with some
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: of these. Tennessee with a total under 54.5. 10-1 to
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: the over. Now the total just dropped to 53.5. So
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: the trend is live. It opened 57.5. Market keeps pushing
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: it down. Trend says to go the other way. Obviously,
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: who knows what to do with these offensive line injuries
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: and everything else. Auburn with a total of Under 54.5,
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: 6-14 to the under. So you've got two trends that
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: are kind of fighting each other. Tennessee's quarterback, Brandon, he's questionable.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: The running backs, Baker and Gordon, are questionable. The linebacker, Harmon,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: is out. Auburn running back, Davenport, is out. And the
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: wide receiver, Smith, is out as well. Weather, going to
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: be 80 degrees. You've got a 47% chance of rain
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: in Knoxville. The projected stat spread, again, has Tennessee minus 11.64.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Tennessee minus 5.7. I'm going to go
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: with the favorite here. I don't like this Auburn team.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I think Tennessee's defensive line is going to be able
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: to get after them. Tennessee, number 8 in defensive PPA
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: allowed per drive. Their defense is number 10 in havoc rate.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: Auburn's offense, number 81 in havoc allowed. Auburn has not
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: done a very good job of throwing the football this year.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: I think Tennessee is going to be able to get
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: some interceptions here, some turnovers. I am expecting big things
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: out of Tennessee the week after that Texas game. So,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: give me Tennessee minus seven for the official show play.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: Curious to see how Golesh and company do going into Neyland,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: but I don't think they're going to steal this one.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: Want extra winning Cures Everything content and a way to
• 22:03
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• 22:07
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• 22:24
  Speaker 1: off over at ghostleaves.com. Game number four, we got number eight, Florida,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: going to number 25, Missouri. Yes, the Tigers are still ranked.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know why, but this one is at 230
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Central on ABC. The Gators are minus 4.5 with a
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: total of 56.5 on this, and John Sumrall has got
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: the Gators rolling. 4-0 in year one. They hung 52
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: on Ole Miss last week. They jumped up 13 spots
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: in the poll. They are a top-10 team for the
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: first time since Dan Mullen was on the sideline, since
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: before COVID. Pretty wild. The market noticed this, too. They
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: opened Florida minus 2.5. It is up to 4.5. It
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: went up three points for the total. 53.5 up to 56.5
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: on this. But it's kind of sat there, right? Missouri
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: lost last week 31-24 at Mississippi State. They were 1-3
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: against the spread. Last time these two played was 20-23
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: in Columbia. Missouri won that one 33-31. That was a
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: bad Florida team. Bad Florida team. Now, here's where it
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: gets fun, right? My power rating has Missouri... favored by
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: a point at home. My number flip is the favorite there.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: It's like five and a half points of value on Missouri.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: The stats model only has Florida by two and a half.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: So both models are on the home dog. And I
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: think the biggest reason is strength of schedule. Right? Florida
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: won at Auburn. They beat Ole Miss. But the other
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: two games were pretty bad, so their Sagarin strength of
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: schedule is 157, which is so astronomically off to me.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: I'm going to trust Sagarin, but man, these ratings have
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: been a little wild this year. But Florida's offense is scary.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: Ten and a half yards per attempt. That is sixth
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: in the country as far as throwing the football. Running
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: the football, they're number 17 at 5.88. They're number 18
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: in rush success. They're number 5 in standard downs, predicted
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: points added. They are explosive in the pass game, number 9.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Not as explosive in the running game, number 53 there,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: but they can still break them. 53.5 points a game.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: That is number 2 in the country right there. But
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: they do give up 22.8 points per game. So that's
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: number 69. Missouri, middle of the average, number 43 in
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: points per game. They give up the 51st most points,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: or 51st least. 20.8 points per game there. And they
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: give up touchdowns in the red zone. Missouri absolutely does. Florida,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: on the other hand, number one. Like, perfect in the
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: red zone thus far. The Ole Miss win says that
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Florida has been tested. Rest of the schedule says maybe not.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: And that Ole Miss spot was perfect for Florida. Absolutely perfect.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: And Missouri's got their own problems. They can't run the football, right?
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: You look at what they're doing right now, number 119
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: in rushing success, 37%. Number 126 in line yards. I
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: take that back. Florida is number 126 in line yards allowed.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: But Missouri's only number 83, so we're looking pretty even there.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: Florida number two in special teams efficiency. Missouri number 106.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, this hidden yardage there, really. John Sumrall, let's
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: look at some trends. Sumrall as a road favorite, 14-3
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: against the spread since 2021. Now, most of that's Tulane
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: and Troy, but they did get that cover at Auburn. So,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: something to pay attention to. Sumrall in conference games. 26-9-1
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: against the spread. But Florida, as a program, as a
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: road favorite, they're just 3-7 against the spread since 2021. Now,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: that's all Napier. But still, Missouri is a home dog,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: 7-3-1 against the spread. As far as totals go, Summerall 56.5
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: or higher. He is 3-9 to the under. Summerall in October,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: 4-10 to the under. Now, he hadn't had Buster Faulkner.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: for that. This series, by the way, these two have
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: played seven times since 2016, one in six to the under.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: So this total, 56 and a half. Now, my stats
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: projected total has it 71. Again, don't put a whole
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: lot of stock into this because strength of schedules and whatnot,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: I try to factor that stuff in, but, whew, But,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, this Florida offense has been outrageous, absolutely outrageous.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Florida's number 15 in net explosiveness, as you can see
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: there on the screen. Missouri number 62 in net explosiveness, right? Well,
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: I can't get there. Either way, you get the point. Injuries,
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Florida wide receiver Brown III, questionable. Singleton, probable. Missouri's got
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: four guys out, of course. Hardy's still out. The offensive guard, Green.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: And they're already struggling to run. The weather, 13% chance
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: of rain, 69 degrees. Looks like it's going to be
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: a nice day in Como here. All of my numbers
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: say to go against Florida. My power rating last week
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: said to go against Florida as well. It had Ole
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: Miss by three. But I can't pick against this offense
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: right now. I know they had a big game, and
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: this should be a letdown spot and all that good stuff,
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: but this Missouri team does not impress me in the slightest.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: I will take Florida minus 4.5. Again, stat spread has
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: Florida minus 2.5. Power rating has Missouri minus 0.9. I'm
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: going against it. I'm going against all of my numbers
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: on this one. I will take Florida. That's a really
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: good football team that John Summerall's got going right there.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Give me the Gators. Minus four and a half on
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: the road. Game number five, Friday night in Blacksburg. We've
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: got a six o'clock central, of course, God's time zone,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: game on ESPN. Pitt at Virginia Tech. The Hokies are
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites right now. Total of
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: 54 and a half. Both teams, 4-0. Both teams are
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: 3-1 against the spread. Both are getting top 25 votes.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: James Franklin gets his first big ACC home game in
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: Lane Stadium on a Friday night. Both teams are on
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: a short week. Now, Pitt. Coming off basically a bye week.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: They beat Bucknell 59-0 last week. Virginia Tech won 21-14
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: at Boston College. They did not cover the 14.5. It
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: was a monsoon. It was ugly. They were down 14-6
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. The last meeting between these two
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: was in 2023. Virginia Tech won that one 38-24. one 38-21.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: But Pitt, 6-2 against the spread against Virginia Tech since 2016. Now,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: this is the only game on my board where both
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: models flip the favorite. That's pretty wild. Power rating has
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: Pitt minus one. The projected stat spread has Pitt minus 2.3.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Both models make Pitt the favor here. Vegas has it,
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech minus 3.5. It has moved quite a bit.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: It opened at 5. I can't remember. When I ran this,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: it was Virginia Tech minus 4.5. Let's see. Virginia Tech
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: opened 5.5. So it's down to three and a half now.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: Why do my numbers love Pitt? The defense. The defense
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: is awesome. Number 13 in PPA per drive. Defensive success
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: rate number three. Now granted, they are number 102 in
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: current strength schedule. Virginia Tech is number 123 in strength schedule.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: But this Pitt defense, let's talk about this. Number two
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: in points per drive allowed. They're number three in scoring defense,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: eight and a half a game. They are number three
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: in passing success allowed. They're number two In yards per
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: carry allowed. I know I had that two somewhere in there.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: Either way, this says it's number six as far as
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: yards allowed per rush, 2.03. Oh, that's where the two is.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Two yards a carry. There you go, 2.03. Wrote my
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: notes down wrong. Anyway, Virginia Tech's offensive line ranks number
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: 100 in line yards per as you can see right here,
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: and they're number 121 in stuff rate allowed. Pitt's defense
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: is number four in stuff rate. That's just a terrible
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: matchup for the Hokies. However, both schedules are soft. Pitt's
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: red zone offense is number 122 in the country, 72.73%.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: Let's look at scoring opportunities. That is when you get
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: a first down inside the opponent 40-yard line. Pitt gets
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: the ball down there a lot. Number 21 in scoring
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: opportunities per game. 7.5 a game. However, they're number 55
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity. 4.23. So they stall or
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: they have to kick field goals or whatever, right? Virginia
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: Tech's defense is number 19 in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: On the other side, Virginia Tech number 35 in points
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, which seems pretty good. But Pitt's defense
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: is number 3. 1.69. They don't let you down there,
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: and they don't let you score. Let's look at some
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: trends on this one. Pitt as a road dog, 3-8
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: against the spread since 2021. As a road dog under 7, 3-9-1.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: Pretty wild. Pretty wild. Franklin as a home favorite under 14,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: 13-5-1 against the spread. Now that's all at Penn State,
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: mostly at Penn State. Franklin in conference games, though, since 2024,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: 4-10 against the spread. Not good. Didn't cover last week either.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: Now granted, you had that Nor'easter going on in Boston,
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: is what it is. Virginia Tech has a favorite as
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: a program, 14-5 to the over as far as totals go.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech off of an under, 8-2 to the over.
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Franklin with a total of 50-54.5, 7-3 to the over.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: So this total opened at 56.5, dropped to 52.5, it's
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: bounced back up to 54.5. It's been all over the place.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: All over the place. As far as injuries, Virginia Tech
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: running back Davis is doubtful. Four Hokie receivers are questionable here.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: Pitt's wide receiver Knight is out. You got four more
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: guys questionable here, but I tend to believe that most
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: of these guys are going to play. The weather, 76 degrees.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: It's going to be calm. 25% chance of rain roundabout. So,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: where do we look at? Pitt is minus 2.27 on
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: the projected stat spread. On the model, the power rating
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: has Pitt minus one. And this thing is still over
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: a field goal. My numbers are screaming Pitt. I'm going
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: to go with Pitt. I'm going to take Pitt plus
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: three and a half. Feels like a field goal game.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: I wish I'd gotten that four and a half. But man,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: this certainly, this is going to be a huge game
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: on Friday night. Absolutely huge game. Let me know what
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: you guys think in the comments. Because I'm, maybe I'm crazy.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: But everything just kind of points to Pitt being the
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: better football team. So I will take them as the dog.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: Pitt plus three and a half. All right, real quick,
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: let me tell you. Every model, every trend, every chart
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: that I'm showing you guys, I build all that stuff
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: myself late at night, fueled by caffeine and bad beats.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: I say late at night or early in the morning
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: on Sundays. But if a show helps you cash a
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: ticket or even just helps you not make a dumb bet,
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: go to buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. Do me a favor. It's
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: $ 5 a month, $ 50 for the year to sign up
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: as a member over there. The Sunday betting recap lives there.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: The recap of all of these games that I do
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: on YouTube, all of my best bets, my official plays,
• 35:10
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• 35:13
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• 35:16
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• 35:18
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• 35:20
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• 35:22
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• 35:25
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• 35:30
  Speaker 1: Friday night, 7 p.m. Central Time on Fox, God's Time Zone.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: Penn State at Northwestern. And Penn State a 2.5 point
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: favorite with a total of 45.5. Now, this thing opened
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: Penn State minus 7. It's now down to 2.5. That's 4.5
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: points of the market fading Penn State. And, of course,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: by now you know why. Saturday, Penn State. blew a
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: 17-point lead at home to Wisconsin. They lost the game 24-20.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin scored two times in less than four minutes, or
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: with less than four minutes left in the game. Matt
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Campbell got booed walking off the field in year one. Like,
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: they're already upset. Now they go on the road on
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: a short week. And the kicker is that Northwestern beat
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: Penn State last year, 22-21 in State College. Northwestern's 3-0
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: against the spread this year. They covered at Indiana as
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: a 20.5-point dog. They've got a full week, and Penn
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: State's on a short week. And, of course, this is
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: the grand opening of the new Ryan Field in Evanston. So,
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: power rating, Penn State minus 2.9. The stats model has
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Penn State minus 4.15, 4.2, whatever you want to call it.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Markets already come down all the way to where my
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: number is. So I've got no big edge on the side. And,
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: you know, obviously the move was real. I mean, this
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: is a really awesome matchup, though. Northwestern's passing game is legit. Like,
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: you look at this, number 9 in QBR, number 5
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: at 10.6 yards per attempt. They're number 12 in PPA
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: per pass. Number 6 in passing success rate. Like, yeah.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: That's not number 6. Why did I write that down?
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: Penn State's Passing defense is number six in success allowed.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: But their current strength schedule is number 104, Northwestern number 11.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: But either way, the passing offense, I mean, Chip Kelly
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: is absolutely cooking with Aiden Childs. And, of course, a
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: little bit of credit, of course, going to Jerry Neuheisel
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: as well. This is not all Chip Kelly. This is
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: both of them combined, which is pretty awesome. Somehow they
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: have turned Aiden Childs into a non-turnover machine. Number one
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: in the country. They have not thrown an interception yet.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: That's pretty wild. Penn State's defense, though, number one in
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: yards per attempt allowed. Four and a half yards per
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: pass attempt allowed. This is strength on strength. On the ground,
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Penn State's rushing offense, number 118 in success rate. I mean,
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: Northwestern's run defense gave us up 5.3 a carry. Roundabout,
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: number 130. So somebody's weakness is going to get exposed
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: on Friday night. As far as trends go, Matt Campbell
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: is a road favorite, 6-13 against the spread since 2021.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: As a road favorite under two touchdowns, 4-10 against the spread.
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: Penn State as a program, though, as a road favorite
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: under 14, they are 8-3. Now, most of that is
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: James Franklin. So the coach and the program trends kind
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: of disagree on this. It... Penn State's, you know, head-to-head,
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: it's one and three to the under, so typically you're
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: going to get a lot of unders with this. There's
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: just not a lot of trends with these two that
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: is going on right here. We're seeing something very different
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: with these two teams. Penn State has their wide receiver
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: Howard out and their defensive lineman Granville. Wide receiver Ethan
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: Black didn't play against Wisconsin. Northwestern, their cornerback Turner is out.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: Three pass catchers are out, Farrell, Eligan, and Petrucci. So,
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: we'll see what that means, of course. Weather, 60 degrees,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: 10 miles per hour north wind off the lake, 15% rain.
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to be beautiful. I think it's
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: going to be beautiful. And Northwestern fans are going to
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: be fired up for this one. As far as five
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: factors plus strength of schedule plus talent rank, Northwestern number
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: 11 in the country, Penn State number 39. I mean,
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: you start diving into some of these. Penn State number
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: 16 in penalties per game. This looks like a Matt
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: Campbell team. Northwestern number 122. Northwestern's pretty aggressive. Turnover margin,
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: number 6 versus number 11. Points per play margin, number
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: 30 versus number 18. Pace of play, number 94, number 99.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: Both like to go kind of slow. This Northwestern defense
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: is pretty... Not great, but this Penn State offense ain't
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: great either, especially not down to down. Number 104 in
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: offensive success rate, number 97 in pass, number 118 rush. However,
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: they are number 50 in PPA per drive and number
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: 48 in PPA per play on offense. Northwestern's defense, number
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: 89 in PPA allowed per drive, number 83. Who can
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: finish drives? That is what's most important here. Penn State,
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: number 88 in points per scoring opportunity. Northwestern's defense is
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: number 12. Sorry, Penn State's offense. Excuse me. I've got
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: that backwards. Northwestern's offense number 12 and points per scoring opportunity.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Penn State's defense number 88. So they do give up points.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: On the other side, Penn State number 66 and points
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity. Northwestern's defense number 17. One of these
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: teams can finish drives. The other one cannot. On both
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: sides of the ball. And while my numbers, like Penn State,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: you know, power rating minus 2.9, stats projected spread Penn
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: State minus 4.15, I'm going with the dog. Penn State
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: loses at home, now they've got to go on the road.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: And Northwestern opening up a brand new stadium, played really
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: well against Indiana last week. I think they've got something
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: cooked up here. I will take Northwestern. Plus 2.5 is
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: the best number I can get on the board right now.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: I wish it was a 3, but I will take
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: Northwestern plus 2.5. Game number 7, 6 o'clock Central God's
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: time zone on ESPN, and we've got number 10, BYU,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: going to TCU. The Cougars right now a 6.5-point favorite.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Total is down to 48.5 on this one. BYU 3-0
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: straight up, 3-0 against the spread. They're coming off of
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: a bye. They've had two weeks of rest. TCU just
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: went down to Orlando, lost 21 to 13 at UCF
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: who had a backup quarterback last year. These two teams
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: met in Provo. It was BYU 44 to 13. The
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: model is split on this thing. Again, power rating has
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: BYU minus 3.8 stats, projected spread stats model has BYU
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: minus eight and a half. So I'm seeing value on
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: BYU in this, um, The fight to watch here is
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: BYU's offense is number one in the country in offensive
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: success rate. They are number one in rushing success rate.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: Against TCU, a run defense that's number four in PPA
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: allowed per rush, this is going to be interesting. Very interesting.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: This is the whole game. Can TCU slow down this
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: running attack? If TCU has to throw the ball to win,
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: They're going to be in trouble. They are dead last. Well,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: not dead last. Number 131 in passing success rate. I mean,
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: just they're number 25 in yards per attempt. It's just
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: standard down success rate is number 27, so they tend
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: to stay ahead of the chains maybe. But their passing
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: success is just awful. They're number 32 in passing explosiveness,
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: but BYU is number 16 in passing explosiveness allowed. BYU
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: likes to play slow, number 126 in plays per minute.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: TCU's pace, not much better. They're number 89 there. And
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: I think that that's got a lot to do with
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: why this total has dropped. Not to mention the fact
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: that when TCU goes up against even a halfway decent team,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: Their offense just goes into a shell. They are not
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: very good in points per scoring opportunity, number 98 there.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: But BYU's defense is number 97 in points allowed per
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. BYU, let's look at some trends here. BYU
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: against the spread since 2024, just overall 20-9. Kalani Satake covers,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: absolutely covers. Coming off of a cover, 12-5 against the spread.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: BYU with a total under 49.5, 10-3 to the over,
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: and we're at 48.5. On the other side, Sonny Dyches
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: at home, 22-11 against the spread since 2021, 12-5, well, sorry,
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: 12-5-1 against the spread in October at home. BYU's running
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: back Moa is out. Their safety, Damuni, is out. TCU
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: is out. It's kicker Kyle Limmerman. With the spread hitting 6.5,
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: I think that matters. Like, TCU not having their kicker,
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: that's kind of a big deal. Weather, 75 degrees, 35%
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: rain in Fort Worth. Yeah, it should be alright. It
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: should be alright on Saturday. I do not trust this
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: TCU team. In the slightest. Like, you start looking at
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: five factors and whatnot, these two are closer than you
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: would think, number 50 and number 41. But every time
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: we have seen TCU play against a decent team or
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: a good team, they have not looked very good at all. Right?
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, they lost. UCF, they lost. They're at home here,
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: but I still kind of trust BYU on this. I
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: don't think the Frogs can slow down the best offense
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: in the Big 12 at all. So, this number six
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: and a half, I'm going to lean towards the stats model.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: On this, give me BYU to cover the 6.5 on
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: the road. I just think they are the significantly better team,
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: the more experienced team, and I'm not big on what
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: Jaden Craig has done thus far. So let's see what happens. Shirts, hoodies, hats,
• 46:25
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• 46:30
  Speaker 1: and rep your favorite college football show today. Just visit winningcureseverything.com
• 46:34
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• 46:39
  Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Winning Cures Everything audio podcast and never
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: miss an episode. Of course, make sure that you leave
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: a five-star review. And don't forget, it's available everywhere you
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: get podcasts. Game number eight, 6.30 p.m. Central Time on
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: NBC and Peacock. Because why not? We'll toss it out there. Washington,
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: fresh off a loss, goes to number 18, USC, who
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: is also off of a loss. USC right now favored
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: by 9.5. Total is 57.5 on this. You want a
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: fun number? These two teams are a combined 1 and
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: 8 against the spread. Washington 0 and 4. USC 1
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: and 4. Somebody has to cover this week. Probably. Yeah,
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: I don't guess you can. You can't land on 9.5.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: But if this thing gets up to 10, just watch
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: it end up being 41-31 or something goofy like that.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: USC lost 41 to 27 against Oregon last week at home.
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: The fire link and Riley crowd is loud right now. Uh,
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: Riley snapped at a reporter for asking the dumbest question
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: last week. Uh, Washington lost 27 to 24 at home
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: to Minnesota as a 12 and a half. Yeah, that
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: went to 12 and a half. Why'd I put that
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: in there? I think they were 10 point favorite. Uh,
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: the last meeting was 2024 in Seattle and Washington when
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: that went 26 to 21. Uh, The power rating has
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: USC minus 9.8. Stats model has USC minus 8.9. The
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: market is right at 9.5, so it's pretty close to
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: the number. Stats total 56.6 on this. That's now a
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: point under the market, which is 57.5. It's the only
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: game on the card here where the stats model is
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: below the total. I mean, it's just super efficiently priced
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: on this. And it comes down to It comes down
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: to this matchup, right? USC's passing game with Jaden Maiva,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: number seven in EPA, or PPA per pass, number four
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: in success rate. And Washington's defense is number 35 in
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: PPA allowed per pass and number 55 in passing success allowed.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: USC's defense, they are number 107. Well, where are we?
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: Points per drive allowed. There we go. Number 107 in
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: points per drive allowed. 2.81. But Washington is number 101
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: in offensive points per drive. Not great. Not great at all.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Washington can't run the ball. I mean, you see right here,
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: they're number 130 in rush rate, so they only run
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: it about 40% of the time. But it makes sense
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: because they're number 114 in yards per rush. They're number
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: 118 in stuff rate allowed, number 102 in offensive line yards,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: number 106 in rushing explosiveness, number 101 in rushing success.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's up and down the board. 3.7 yards
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: of carry ain't going to cut it. So it's on
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: DeMond Williams to throw it around. He's had, what, like
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: almost 1,200 yards passing, seven touchdowns. He's had three picks
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: thus far in the year. Watch the halves in this one.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: First half point margin, USC really good, number 10, plus 15.8. Washington,
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: number 59 at plus 0.7. Second half point margin, USC
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: is number 81, negative 2.4. Washington, number 47, 3.6. The
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: Trojans seem to fade late. That's something to pay attention
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: to maybe for some live bets on this. As far
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: as trends go, Washington against the spread in October on
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: the road. I know there's a lot that I just
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: said there. But Washington on the road in October, 1-9
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: against the spread since 2021. 3-15 in my database. That's ugly.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: Washington as a road dog, 2-8 against the spread. However,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: Washington off of a straight-up loss. They are 7-3 against
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: the spread since 2024. They've had more losses than you
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: would think since 2024. Riley as a home favorite, under 14.
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: 10-3 against the spread. USC at home, 27-11 to the over.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: Riley in October, 24-10 to the over. Riley with a
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: total of 55.5 or higher, 38-18 to the over. So,
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: a lot to pay attention to here. USC's linebacker, Desmond Stevens,
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: is suspended for this game. Obviously, the dirty hit on
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: Oregon's quarterback, Dante Moore. The wide receiver, Mosley. And the
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: offensive guard, O'Connor, they're out. You've got six more guys
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: that are questionable here. Washington is out two running backs,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: Leimer and Carr. This team already can't run, so that
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: doesn't help anything. Weather in this one, 87 degrees in L.A.,
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: 10 miles per hour. Well, 10 miles per hour wind
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: and no rain. So I'm going to trust Lincoln Riley
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: to get back off the mat. I think this Washington
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: team is not very good. The offense is not very
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: good for sure. The defense has been a little bit better,
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: but their current strength schedule is number 121. Minnesota was
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: the first real team that they played all year. And
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: that is no offense to the teams that they have
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: already played. Utah State, don't come up in my mentions.
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: Washington State, don't come up in my mentions. I'm just
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: messing with y'all. But I'm also telling the truth. Washington
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: played an average football team with comparable talent, and they
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: did not look good against Minnesota. They scored some late,
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: but Minnesota pretty much dominated that game. Right? Right. I
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: think USC has to get things rolling this week. I
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: think they will find some things against Washington's defense here.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: I will take USC minus 9.5. I will go against
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: my stats model. I think USC can win by 10
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: or more. I feel good about Riley's trends. Give me
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: USC minus 9.5. Game number nine, Saturday night, we're going
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: to Death Valley. 6.30 p.m. Central Time on ABC. It's
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: God's time zone, of course. Number four, Miami at Clemson.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: And Miami a 16.5 point favorite, total of 48.5. Y'all,
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: this line opened Miami minus seven. It got all the
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: way to 17.5. It sits at 16.5 now. That is
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: a nine and a half point move. And the reason
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: why We can talk about Chris Vazina being out with
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: the elbow and the freshman Tate Reynolds getting the start,
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: but it has as much to do with that as
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: it does with the fact that Clemson's offense has been atrocious.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: I don't think it would have been any better with Vazina, right?
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: They have looked putrid, and they got their brains beat
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: in by LSU to start the season, and LSU is
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: pretty close to Miami as far as talent, right? I mean,
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: Miami number four in PPA margin. Now, their current strength
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: of schedule is number 113. So they hadn't really played
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: anybody yet, which is why I think there was some
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: Clemson buyback in the market. But you just look at
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: some of these, at particular points added margin, Miami number four,
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: Clemson number 87, Clemson number 125 in PPA per drive
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: on offense. Miami's defense is number 40, but Miami's offense
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: is number one. Clemson's defense is number 25. So that's good.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: But it's rough. Clemson also not very good against the run.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: Either way, Reynolds started last week at Cal. Clemson won
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: that game 24-10. He threw a pick. He lost a fumble.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: And that fumble got returned for a touchdown. Like Dabo said,
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: he's been accurate in practice. He just missed last week.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: And now Clemson, of course, has lost the running back
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: for the season. This Clemson team opened the year getting
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: boat raced by LSU, 51-10. The last meeting between these
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: two was in 2023. Miami won that one 28-20 in
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: double overtime. The power rating here has Miami minus 10.4.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: That is six points of value on Clemson. The stats
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: model has Miami minus 20.8. That goes the opposite direction.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: I can't get over how bad these stats are for
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: this Clemson offense. Chad Morris is the offensive coordinator. You
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: remember he was there in the early 2010s. He kind
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: of got this thing rolling with them. Miami, let's look
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: at five factors, like just raw rank. Miami is number
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: one in my five factors raw rank. They score 52
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: points a game. They only give up nine points a game.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: Clemson is number 120. They score 21 points a game.
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: They give up 22. Not a lot of that came
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: from the LSU game early in the year, but either way.
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: Miami has not seen a defense like this. Like, not
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: even close. Jake Dicker ran some different things at them.
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: They still sliced up Wake Forest defense. As far as
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: talent goes, though, Miami number 8, Clemson number 20. It's
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: just that Clemson's not playing well. Let's look at some
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: of the trends on this. Mario Cristobal against the ACC.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: He is 12-24 against the spread since 2021. That's 36 games.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: That is not a small sample size. Cristobal in October,
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: 5-13 against the spread. Miami since 2024. They are 21-12
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: against the spread. 27-6 straight up. I feel like it's
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: a different Miami right now. The total has dropped 7 points. 55.5
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: down to 48.5 on this. It just kept going down.
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: Kept going down. For Clemson, you've got some pretty major
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: injuries here. I've already mentioned a couple of them. Then
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: the running back, Haynes, is out. The cornerback, Gibson, is out.
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: You've got three more guys that are out as well.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: Backfield is getting pretty thin there. Miami's running back, Fletcher Jr.,
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: is questionable, but they've got some guys that are dinged
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: up as well. The weather, this is intriguing, right? 73 degrees,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: 56% chance of rain. That's the highest percent that I've
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: found for a game this week. you got rain. Plus
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: you got a freshman quarterback, but also Miami might rely
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: on throwing the football. Although I would doubt it. Miami
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: has got a stable running backs, like looking at this
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: Clemson defense, number one 30 and rushing success allowed number
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: one 35 and rushing explosiveness allowed number one 37 and
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: offensive line yards allowed number one 30 and stuff, right?
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: Like even if Miami can't throw the ball, I would
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: imagine they're going to put up points. Um, 16.5-point favorite
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: in Death Valley feels like sacrilege. But I cannot get
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: over what I saw in Baton Rouge in Week 1.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: Clemson going up against good football teams sounds like a nightmare.
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to get sucked into this whole, well,
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Clemson's got comparable talent, Miami hadn't played anybody, etc., etc.
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: I think Miami is... worlds better than Clemson. Do I
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: think that Miami sometimes likes to play with their food?
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: Sometimes they lose games they're not supposed to. See SMU
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: on the road last year. See Louisville on the road
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: last year. Yeah, I get it. This Clemson team is
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: not as good as either one of those teams. I'm
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: going to take Miami. I'm going to trust my stats
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: model here. Again, the stats model, Miami minus 20.8. The
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: power rating has Miami minus 10. But, give me Miami
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: minus 16.5 on the road. I think this could get ugly.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: This could get really ugly. This is one of the
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: only true opponents that Miami has on their schedule. Like, actual, like, competition.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: in talent. And Miami is just so much more buttoned
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: up than Clemson is. So I will go with the Hurricanes,
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: minus 16.5. Game number 10, we got Virginia at Florida State.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: This one, 2.30 p.m. Central Time on ESPN2. Whew. Virginia
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: is favored by 2.5 in Tallahassee. Now, Virginia is 3-1.
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: They're 3-1 against the spread as well, coming off of
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: a 42-3 win over Delaware. Florida State 2-2. They beat
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: Central Arkansas 34-7. They did not cover the 45.5 last week.
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: Last year, Virginia beat Florida State 46-38 in double overtime.
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: Virginia is 2-0 against Florida State since 2016. That's crazy.
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: The model is pretty split on this one. Power rating
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: has Virginia minus 1.7. The stat spread has Virginia minus 7. Well, 7.01.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: It's four and a half points to the Cavs. The
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: biggest mismatch in the game is Virginia's passing game against
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: Florida State's pass defense. Florida State's pass defense is pretty rough.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: But when you look at who they've played, it kind
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: of makes sense, right? Now, their current strength of schedule
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: is number 71. but they've played some really bad teams,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: and New Mexico State could throw it all over these guys.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: The issue that I see here, Virginia is number 103
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: in passing success. They're number five in QBR, but that's
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: because they only throw the ball about 41% of the time.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know if this team is good enough to
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: beat Florida State if Bo Pribula is limited running the football,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: and he's been tinged up. Not a lot to take
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: from the last game. Florida State, another thing that's killing them,
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: number 133 in interceptions thrown per pass attempt. They don't
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: throw it very much either, by the way. 41%. But
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: they are pretty good when they do throw it, other
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: than when they throw it to the wrong team. That's
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: the way it goes. Virginia number 13 in turnover margin.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: They're number 19 in takeaways per game. Florida State is
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: number 87 in giveaways per game, so that's not good.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: The fact that they are number 81 in turnover margin,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: despite the fact that they got four turnovers and didn't
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: commit any against SMU, still lost the game there. That
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: makes me very wary of the Seminoles here. As far
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: as trends go, I mean... Unders is where it's at.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: This number was at 51.5. My stats predicted total has
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: a 53, 53.5. Florida State in ACC play, 3-14 to
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: the under since 2024. Florida State at home, 4-13 to
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: the under. Florida State with a total of 51.5 or more,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: 4-11 to the under. Virginia off of an under, which
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: they hit last week against Delaware. 9, 23, and 2
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: to the under since 2021. Virginia as a favorite, 8
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: and 19 to the under. Tony Elliott in October, 3, 9,
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: and 2 to the under. And on the side, Florida
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: State is a home dog under 7, 2, 6, and
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: 2 against the spread. How can anyone bet Florida State here?
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: If you just really think that Bo Pribula is really
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: hurt and can't go Maybe. I just don't know how
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: you do it. As far as injuries go, Virginia's got
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: some guys. Newton Short, the wide receiver, dealing with a hamstring. Heyman,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: the kicker, dealing with an issue. The running back, Stevens,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: the wide receiver, Ward, they're all questionable. Defensive lineman, Hammond
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: is out. Florida State, their running back, Singleton Jr. is out.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: Wide receiver, Carter, out in this game. Weather is going
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: to be 85 degrees. The wind gusts are going to
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: be around 16 miles per hour. And you've got a
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: 54% chance of rain. So if it really comes down
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: to who can run the football, who do you trust
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: in there? We've seen Virginia do this. And this is
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: more fuel for the under, by the way. I do
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: like an under on this. But that's not what we
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: do on this show. Again, stats model has Virginia by 7.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Virginia by 1.7. The spread right now
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: is Virginia minus 2.5. I'm going to take the Hoos.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: Give me Virginia minus 2.5. Florida State has to show
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: to me that they can beat ACC teams. They hadn't
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: been able to do it in two years. This Virginia
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: team is loaded up on the offensive line. If you
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: want to look at their number four On the offensive line,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: Florida State's defensive line is number 15, but, I mean,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: my gosh, they haven't been able to stop the run.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: Number 94 in offensive line yards allowed. Number 90 in
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: stuff rate. Number 108 in PPA allowed per rush. I
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: don't like that. I don't trust that at all. So,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: I think that Virginia is actually the better team here.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: The talent rank wouldn't tell you that, but experience-wise and whatnot,
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: and the numbers, certainly, point that out I don't think
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: Florida State can get out of their own way give
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: me Virginia minus two and a half on the road
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: all right that is gonna wrap things up for my
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: 10 best games for week number five again the recap
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: all of these picks with notes and everything else the
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: numbers etc you can find it all over at buymeacoffee.com
• 1:05:08
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• 1:05:25
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• 1:05:27
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• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: jump out of here. Until next time, take care of yourself.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: Take care of each other. God bless college football. And
• 1:05:35
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• 1:05:38
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