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NFL Week 1 Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman. Before we came on, even though
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: we have been doing this podcast forever, I'm honestly nervous.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: I've got butterflies in my stomp, Mike. I feel like
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: the stakes have never been higher for me and my
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: partner on the podcast. Someone's saying, my partner in life,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, professional better, Simon. We have so much to
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: run through in this podcast. I want you to say hello.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: I want you to come into the podcast strong, say
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: hello all listeners, Hello, listeners. I'm not as nervous as
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: you are. I would say. Last year, with no preseason,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: that was I mean, I don't even think man. Mitchell remembers,
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: I was a broken man. I was like terrified for
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: you on the air. I was like, I don't trust anything.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: I think we're gonna go five. I don't want to
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: do this show anymore where This year, I'm feeling pretty good, buddy,
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: feeling a little cocky heading into the year. So hopefully
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: week one doesn't humble me too quick. I hope not either,
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: because last year week when we went five and oh
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: and so we've got a lot to live up to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: let me explain a little bit. Yeah, I wish I
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: could say that was skilled chat. We both know that
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: was that was luck. That was five and out with
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: no preseason. That was pretty pretty insane. We're sharp, we
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: know how to play the market. Let me explain to
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: people what we do here. I'm imagining that there will
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: be new people listening to this podcast because of our
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: association with the volume, or if there are new people
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: discovering this podcast because they just decided to start betting
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: because it's legal in their state, or they heard about it,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: or they're just excited for a football season. They're looking
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: for new offerings. I am Chad Milman and the chief
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Content officer from the Action Network. We are a company
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: that focuses on providing content, news, information analysis in the
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: sports betting space. I've been doing this for a long time.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: I am not a sharp, but I know enough to
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: be dangerous. Simon Hunter, you are a professional better. You
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: do this for a living. You reached out to me
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: three years ago on Twitter because you listen to the podcast.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: I have been hosting this podcast back in my ESPN
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: days for many years. Brought it over when we started
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: the Action Network in January of two eighteen, I responded
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: to you. You started coming on the podcast three years ago.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Last year you became my individual co host. Now we
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: are partners. As I've said, you know what you're talking about.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: You do this for a living. I know the markets,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I know what I'm reading the Action Network app. Like
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: I said, I know enough. You know it all, like
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: coming early on My whole job to you is just uh,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: it's hard to convince people to listen to you when
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: they're not paying you for your information. On this show,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna show you where the water is in the desert.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: You're not always gonna drink. For some reason, people just
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: think they know more than um people who do this
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: for a living. So I'm hoping that if you're new
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: to this show, you're gonna learn pretty quickly. I'm gonna
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: tell you to do some crazy things. You're gonna you're
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: gonna bet on some ugly teams. But me and Chad
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: last year when for the whole season, that's really good,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: and if we can do that again, that'd be insane. Again,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: anything above six you can quit your day job and
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: just do this for the rest of your life. So
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: you've set the bar Chad and Uh. I love living
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: up to expectations, so I'm excited for this upcoming season.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Can we not be irresponsible and recommend people quit their
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: day jobs on this show here? But it is a
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: good point. It is a good point, Like for those
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: who don't know, I got a lot to run through
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: here because a because we are now part of the
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. I am going to be on with
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Colin on his podcast every Friday. He's gonna give me
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: what he thinks his picks are. I'm going to give
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: him the professionals perspective on those picks, tell him if
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: he's right or if he's wrong, and I'm gonna let
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: him know, Simony, where you and I landed if our
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: picks about from a professional point of view are different
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: than his. You're gonna listen to that podcast on Fridays.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: We podcast on Tuesday mornings talking about the lines that
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: we see as they stand on Tuesday, but what is
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: over forty eight hours As we get closer to the weekend,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: those lines move a lot. So we will be podcasting
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: on Thursdays as well. On Sundays. You and I will
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: be part of a team on at Action Network h Q.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: At eleven AM, in which we are all talking about
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: betting the games that are happening that Sunday. The show
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: is called Convinced Me. It's you, It's Chris Raybon, it's
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Sean Kerner. You are going to be the contestants who
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: try to convince me the bets I should make as
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: we head into Sunday. Finally, there will be four things
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: that we're going to focus on over the course of
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: the week. One if I say, Simon says, that means listeners,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: don't ask any questions, Go fucking make that bet. We'll
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: do that on Tuesday's one, Simon says, do it. What
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: If I say we're in the foxhole, it means we're
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: gonna be together in this bet, You and I. We're
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: gonna be friends and compadres in this bet because we
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: are together. We're in the foxhol on Thursdays, Big balls
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: better the week that is when like we are doing
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: what you just said, We're gonna do some disgusting things.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: You gotta have cajones to make that bet. And then
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: sometimes we're gonna walk into the hornets nest. I'm walking
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: to a fucking hornets nest. All right, I'll be my
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: companion and it's just gonna be really, really scary, and
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do it end of this show. Simon, you
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: made a very very generous offer last week. You said,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: give us some five star reviews, say some funny things,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: and you will give the winner a chance at your
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: five you're one of your four best picks of a year.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Those tend to do pretty well, so we're gonna give
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: that winner away at the end of the show. It's
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: a lot, it's a lot to chew on right now.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: What do you think about that? A lot to take
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: in you. You sound very commercialized chat. It feels like
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: we're selling out a little bit, but hey, this is
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: exciting times. It was just hilarious here and you go
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: through all that sup perfessional. You're a sou perfessional Chat.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: I'm nervous, don't be buddy. I almost forgot how to
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: do the show. It's like it's been so long since
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: we since we went through this. I am looking at
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: the Action Network Gap right now. We're looking at the
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: week one games download the Action Network Gap. It's free,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: it's award winning. And also before we dive in chat,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: we should let people know Vandel does not have a
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: contest this year. They do not have a contest for
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: me and Chat to put five picks in, So we
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: will be doing an unnamed pick contest this entire season,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: but we only name sponsors. It's fair to say, if
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: nothing else, we will have five picks. If anybody is
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: doing any kind of contest, we will have five picks
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: that we feel great they will put into a contest.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: And if we happen to be doing a contest, they
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: are probably the five picks we would put in as well. Correct,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: and we're doing one survivor pick as well, my friend,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: and you gotta follow us in the Action Network gap
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: because that's where on Sundays you will get the final
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: five picks in case we make decisions to change it
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: from Thursday to Sunday. Okay, let's dive in, Buddy, I
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: hit that horn, bade, Let's dance. The Cowboys visiting the
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: EMPA Bay Buccaneers Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Eight
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: thousand bets are in the Action Network app right now.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: The big news from Dallas is that Zack Martin, They're
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: all Pro guard, will not be playing. This game opened
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: its six and a half at fandwel it's currently Bucks
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: minus seven and a half. Give me your take on
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: this game. I gotta love the number. I've moved this
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: up to minus eight, so I still like the value.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: If you can get the seven and a half. In
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: a normal year, if there was no COVID, Cowboys were
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: all healthy, Dak Prescott wasn't coming in with all these
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: question marks. You take. You take the Cowboys here, they
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: would cover this big number in an opening night where
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: the super Bowl team they're gonna their heads, not gonna
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: be in the game. They're they're kind of gonna be
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: all over the place. We've seen that time and time again.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: So one thing I like to do, I like to
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: take the under first half, but I'm also taking the
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: under for the full game in this game. And we're
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about this week, Chad. There's there's a lot
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: of traps Week one. This this game does not feel
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: like a trap. Um if you want to played safe.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: There's a couple of teams this week. We'll talk about
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: it again that I like for two team teasers or parlays,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: money line parlays. The Bucks are gonna be a lot
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: of my money line parlays. It's the Buccaneers are a
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: top three run defense. We've seen what the Cowboys like
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: to do. They like to run it and get deck
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: set up where you can do play action, get the
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: right receivers going. And I just if this was Week
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: seven or eight, I'd feel good about the Cowboys and
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: this number. But the fact that it's the first game
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: of the year. The Cowboys have not looked right all preseason,
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: and we've seen the Buccaneers they just looked solid, especially
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: in the time they've played in the preseason. That offense
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: was clicking. Uh in their final preseason game. I have
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: to trust Tom Brady having his guys up for this night.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: So for me, this is an easy bet where you
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: either take the Bucks or you just take the under
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: and you're gonna come out with some mony in the night.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: What about the Cowboys hasn't looked right to you? To
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: explain it, You've got access to the All twenty two's,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: you watch these games incessantly. You're looking in the preseason.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: What hasn't looked right for the Cowboys? I mean, other
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: than the fact that backs leg was shattered into four
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: pieces like ten months ago. Um, I don't know, it's
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: it's just I never liked riding with guys who are
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: coming in with injuries starting the preseason, the fact that
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: he had a dead arm because you over overdid it
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: when he first came back, and they've kind of been
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: taking it really easy with him, and now they've lost
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: their are all pro guard, you know, against the Buccaneers,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: who again a top three run defense. This just screams
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: as a trap for the Dallas Cowboys, and it makes
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: you feel the better that I know that they're getting
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: a lot of percentage. I think, um, you could say
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: the percentage in the app. I think it's percent of
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: the money has come in right now in the Cowboys.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: So it doesn't feel like I'm just riding with the public.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: I just think the Buccaneers are the smart side in
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: this game. Why do you like the under the first
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: half and the under for the game total? Right now?
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: In this game is attwo People are gonna see a
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: little trendier under his Week one. I love him college football.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: You could go back and look this past week under
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: his baby You you want to take unders early on
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: here because usually last year was fluky where the offense
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: came out like you know, Gangbusters. No fans people there
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: was no fans last year. I mean the quarterback and
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: walk up to the line, change the play, do whatever
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: the hell he wants to do to complete silence. So
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: to me, it's over injusted. Still, it's over inflated a
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: lot of these lines. So this week the under is
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: gonna be to play in many cases, especially the first
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: game of the year, where I can just see it
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: that these you know, the Buccaneers are gonna kind of
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: have their heads in a in a little bit of
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: a world wind. They're gonna be honored before the game
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: starts about being the Super Bowl defending champions again. Tom Brady,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be all right. The rest of this team
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: a bunch of guys twenty five and under. It's a
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: very young core for the Buccaneers, so team me, I
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: can just see this game starting out is a very slow,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: sloppy game where both teams are just trying to get
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: their feet under him. So again, I last time I looked,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: it was fifty one the total in this game. I
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: still like up down to fifties. So as long as
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: it's it's not gone below fifty, I still like this under.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: It's not a huge, huge number, by the way, neither
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: of those feel like a Simon says or a foxhol
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, dude, it's the first game. Yeah, it's first game,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: and I don't want in the first game, you know,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: let it let it ride a little bit. Arizona Cardinals
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: at Tennessee Titans. Tennessee is a three point favorite. My
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: take on this, if I may my take on this
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: right now, You've got seventy percent of the money of
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: the bets coming in on Tennessee on the side. I
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: kind of like Tennessee in this game. Uh trap, No
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: pro would bet either side. I mean, pro might end
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: up on Cardinals just because you know they're getting the
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: plus three. And this is truly a coin flip game.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: So this is one of these where I look at
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: two teams of high powered offenses with terrible defenses on
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: both sides. Um, I know Arizona's I'd improve their defense
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: in some aspects, but they really haven't. So for me,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: I just would never put this in the contest because
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: it's truly a coin flip game. Like whatever, whichever one
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: of these teams has the ball at the end of
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the game could easily win the game, because I have
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: no faith in that other team's defense to getta stop.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: So just looking at the numbers, you said, it sounds
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: like the pros kind of have an idea here where
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: this is. Uh, this is a game where you take
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals, but I can't do it. I I I
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: bet the Cardinals, but I would not take the Cardinals
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: in our pickpool. And this is actually these games where
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: I really like the over. Uh. It might have been
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: one of three games I bet for the over. So
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: it shows you that I am a big unders guy.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: So if I like it over, usually that's a sign
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: that there's gonna be some points in this game. So
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: all these daily fantasy people all that stuff. Okay, Tennessee
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: terrible defense, Cardinals not that good defense, crazy high powered offenses.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: You want to take the over in this games any
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: any other time. If this was a pick, I'd be
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: all over Tennessee. But the fact that Tennessee is minus three,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: I just would do it. So for me, it's either
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Cardinals or stay away. Uh. The total in this game
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: is fifty two and a half by the way. Uh wow, okay, okay,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: up to fifty three. I'm just making a note of that.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be very good. I'm gonna this year. It's
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: gonna be much more conscientious about taking notes, so I
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: can activate on almost everything you say. After this, I
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: will go through I'll make a list of everything you say.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: I will make fifty five bets every single weekend unders teasers, parlays,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: sides first half, second half live, not that much live,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: but a lot of money. Line parlays this week chat
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: at Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts. This number has come down.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: This is really interesting. Obviously, the Carson Wentz stuff is
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: all playing a factor into this. Right now on FanDuel UH,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: this game open Seattle plus two and a half. Now
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Seattle is minus two and a half. The total is
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: fifty two and a half. Um. If you need some
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: stats here, if you need some metrics, sixty of the
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: money coming in on Seattle UH of the bets. Obviously,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: this could change as we get closer to the game.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be one of those lines that come Thursday,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: we may have some very serious conversations because it could move,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: money could move. All these things could happen as we
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: get more news about players kids. This This line has
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: been really hard to handicapped. I looked at it early
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: in the year. I like the value we're getting on Seahawks.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: I think there are plus two and a half plus
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: three Carson wentz Chat. I don't think we really know
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: what to do with it. It's one of these things
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: where it's the great unknown. Like the easy pick here
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: is just to take the Seahawks. We know we have
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: in Russell Wilson, we know we have in that offense,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: we know we have in that defense. Where the Colts,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know. It's it's just so much negative coming
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: out of there. There left tackle out now, t Y
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Hilton's out now, It's it's scary where this number doesn't
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: make sense. I don't know why it's not minus three.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know why it's not minus three and a half.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: It's it's a little scary where it um again because
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: it's week one. I just feel like the bookmakers are
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: just laying so many traps here. They're trying to get
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: all these people to take these road favorites. So I'll
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: either take the culture. I'm just gonna stay away because
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: I just simply cannot take what they're laying here. They're
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: they're pretty much giving you a gift if you take
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks. So whenever the sports books are giving me
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: a gift, I usually go the other way. So that's
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: why I'm on the Colts this week. Meaning you've already
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: made a bet on the Colts at plus two and
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: a half. Bet them two and a half. Put them
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: in a teaser too, Um, which was funny because I
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: was actually on the other way. I was on it.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: I had a Seahawks teaser, but it got knocked out
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: because the Green Bay game got moved. But I'm just
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: trying to play value. And if I have this game
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: at a pick and it's plus two and a half,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I have to take that number with the Colts. You
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: said the bookmakers are begging you to take the Colts.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Explain what you're seeing that makes you say that, Because
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: the only people like me that are mentally insane would
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: bet the Colts. I just told you all the logical reasons.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: There is no smart reason to take the Colts. The
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Colts have not had a team played together at all
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: this preseason. Either, guys have had COVID, guys have been hurt.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: It's just it's just so much negativity. That's what the
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: line doesn't make sense to me. Um. But again, It's
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: one of these things where this is where pros lose.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: We backed the books, We're gonna lose this one here
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: and there. That's that thirty nine percent we talked about.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: We lost slash and percent at the time, but sixty
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: more percent the time. I'm gonna be right about this
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: kind of game. So that's why I'm just playing the
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: percentages where I'm getting a plus number as well, and
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: that eats up the big a little bit. You have
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: to play these kind of short home dogs, so I
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: definitely would play the Colts in this position. L A
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Chargers are visiting the Washington football team. It's one of
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: our favorite teams in the NFL, was the o A
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Chargers right now. We're so high on them. Yet here's
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: the challenge, and we just addressed it a little bit
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: with the cults. You want to talk about opportunities. Week
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: one home underdogs, Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football team.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Washington football team is a plus one right now. Of
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the Washington football team,
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: which means the wise guys like the Washington football team,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: but the bets are coming into the Chargers, which means
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: the public likes the Chargers. I know who we like
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: long term, and I know who we like in this game,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: explaining to the people, Yeah, classic where the Chargers are
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: the hype team of the off season, we both love
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: them obviously for this whole season. Uh, you know, we're
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: expecting big things from Herbert and to take a second
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: year step, and they've revamped this whole coaching staff. So
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: I got Rivera at home with a veteran quarterback, a
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: really really really good defense, playing a very young, inexperienced team,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: inexperienced head coach coming on the road in week one.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Just again the trends and the math behind it. This
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: is the kind of time you have to play the
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: ugly home dog. So with Washington, this might blow up
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: on our face in the first quarter where we got
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: fits Magic down twenty one nothing, he's already thrown a
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: second interception. But this is how we live in died Chat.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: We live and die taking these ugly teams. So for me,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: you can you can take the under if you really want.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: I don't want to risk it because I could see
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: either of these teams putting up points. It doesn't matter
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: how good the defenses are, but the safer play than
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: me just feels like taking Washington this game where I
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: love them, I love what they bring to the table,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: and I look at this from the math standpoint. If
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: you really believe in the Chargers, take them right now
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: forty to one to win the Super Bowl, because if
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: they win this game, it's gonna go down and then
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: they play the Cowboys next week at home, which I'm
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: gonna guess most of us are gonna say that the
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Charger are probably gonna win that game against this this
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: Cowboys team. So if you do believe in the Chargers,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: don't bet them in this game. Just take them for
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: the superlodds and have better long shot odds. Of course
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: they lose, then you can get the Chargers and even
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: longer odds next week you could, but that's one of
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: the things that if you think there's even a chance
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: of them losing, just don't don't bet them this week
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: at Washington. Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans. This game right here,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, we've talked about this. I know we're
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: gonna have to do something gross. Jacksonville with a first
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: year head coach who's already shown signs of not being
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: very good. Number one overall pick at quarterback. He's a
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite over a veteran quarterback
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: at home in Tyrod Taylor starting for the Texans. It's
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: gotta be our Foxhole bet of the week. Fox Hole,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: let's climb down into the foxhole. Dude, I mean, honestly disgusting,
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: But it's so disgusting. In what world we have a
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: rookie coach and a rookie quarterback favorite on the road
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: in their first start. I don't care that Houston might
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: be the worst team I've ever seen on paper. They
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: literally have five running backs all over the age of thirty.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, mark Ingram, Philip Lindsay, all these guys, just
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: David Johnson, it just keeps going. They're this They're just
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: a horribly built team. But at quarterback position they have
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: Tyrod Taylor. They got Brandon Cooks a receiver. I think
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: there's pieces here with Houston that again, I know they're horrible.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: This might be the only game they win all year,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: but how is this not a pick? This this bizarre
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: there plus three plus two and a half at home.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: There's just so much hype on this Jaguars team, and
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: I guess it's cool a little bit because people finally
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: saw in preseason where it's like, okay, this offensive line
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: to or when they can't really block anyone. But you know,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: it's more of that. It's just a bet against a
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: rookie coach and a rookie receiver, I mean a quarterback.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: It's it's so much pressure for these two to get
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: it right in the first game, all on the road.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: I have to take Houston on the points here. So
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: it's up to you if you want to put in
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: chat at we have ugly game, so we can put
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: it over this. But this is one of these I've circled.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: If we can get plus three in the contest, I
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: would love to take Houston to plus three. Dude, listen
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: to me. There might not be any uglier games than this.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: This is the definition of corner TV, right. This is
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: the game if we're in the sports book, this is
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: the smallest TV in the corner where all the bookmakers
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: know nobody's gonna be watching it. I'll have the fewest
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: amount of tickets I can tell you right now. Um,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: right now, it's got eleven It's got eight thousand bets.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: According to the Action Network app uh, it is hold
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: on the only other game that has Oh my god,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: this by definition has the fewest number of bets in
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: the Action Network out. That's game. That's a pros game.
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: Not only are we not even questioning this. If I could,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: I bet it five times now you would. I would
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: not let you do that because this is this is like, truly,
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: I can't tell you how awful this Houston team is,
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: chat like this might be the only time we take
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: them for the next eight weeks total in this game.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: This is how bad people are, how how the expectations
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: are so bad in this game open at forty five
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: and a half, it's now forty four and a half.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: I like the over too, but I'm not giving that out.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: But that's this is one of these where it's just
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: two awful teams out so I could see the over,
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: so I'm not coming through. I love this for some reason.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: There's nothing about this that scares me, like it's a
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: no brainer to me. Honestly, it's one of those you
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: want to think you just bet just off those trends itself.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: It's it just feels like one of those you have
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: to bet. I'd probably go full unit on this, oh,
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: the full unit from Elman. It really is impressed for
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: a little guy betting football is the best. I mean, help,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: I went over to the buddies on Saturday night. We
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: had a drink. We were watching uh Georgia Clemson and
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: then flipping to L s U and U C l
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: A and just the ritual, just hanging with the buddy
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: having a drink watching football. It's just the best there.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: There really is nothing better than that crowd. The real
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: crowds made it so much more. You know, Oh my god,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: well listen watching you know what happened at Wisconsin, what
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: happened at Virginia Tech with Enter sand Man, seeing that
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: see if humanity all bounced together in both of those places,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: it was electric. It was soul fulfilling. I missed it.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: I should say that in the Jags Texas game, all
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: the bets coming in on the Jacks, but also a
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: lot of the money. So money is usually an indicator
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: of professional money, of professional vetters. We're gonna be going
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: against everybody there, just saying, but I'm okay with that.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: New York Jets at Carolina Panthers revenge game for Sam Donald.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: Game opened at four, it's moved up to five. Everything
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: going towards the Panthers. How do we not take the
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Jets here? I know, and it was it sucked too
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: because this is one of my favorite early lines are.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Our good friend Katie rich Creek reached out to me
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: in May and told me to give her two games
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: to bet on for Week one. This is one of
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: these games where I like Caroline, I love the weapons
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: that have an offense. I like to read, you know,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Sam Donald Penn against his old team, and week one
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: at home again, I gets a rookie quarterback, a rookie
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: head coach. But you know, watching the preseason, I've kind
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: of come around on everything with the Jets. Uh. We
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: talked about my love for Zack Wilson. I bet him
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: to one Rookie of the Year. I think you nailed
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: on the head where I had such low expectations for
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: this kid that the fact that he is so good
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: and so smart and just like his footwork in the
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: pocket is insane for a kid his age coming out
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: of b y u um. If this line was four chat,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: we'd be taking Carolina. But I have this game at
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: four and a half. It's up to five five and
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: a half at certain books. I mean, we have to
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: take that difference there. It's a full point of movement.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: So again, it's not it's not what I tend to do.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: I tend not to take rookies on the road. But
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: if you're giving me this big of a line against
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: two terrible teams, you know we'll we'll take the other
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: terrible team on the road that they might shock some
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: people here because there is no tape on Zack Wilson.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Is it like there is a ton of tape on
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Sam Donald, not a lot of tape on Zach Wilson.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: So that's one of these I wouldn't give out to
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: UM the people to do in the contest, but personally
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: I will be bet in the Jets. Well, it's interesting, UM,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: at this point, we're through one to three six games.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: There's only one game, maybe maybe two games that we
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: feel great about. I think we both are a hundred
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: percent agreement on Jacksonville and Houston. We want to take
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: the Texans, uh. And then I think we both agree
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: on the Washington football team and the Chargers. Like, to me,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: those are two no brainer picks. Yeah. And when we
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: feel this confident going into the week, when we're seeing
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: the field this clearly, when it's so obvious can only
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: lead to good things, right, We're doom but these again,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: that's why I'm glad we're doing the Thursday show this
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: some of these picks might change just by Thursday. Um,
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: I have my own system. I do stuff that I
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: based it off of. There's professionals that I work with.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: They'll listen to the show and they're gonna be the
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: ones reached out to me be like, hey, you idiot,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: The Chargers actually free minus three not a pick. So like,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: I am not gonna be staunching my ways between different shows.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: But it's hard. Man. Like we've been saying these big
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: one lines for four months, so like, yeah, I'm feeling
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: pretty confident about each pick we're making so far. Well,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: people have to listen on Thursday. Things might change. We
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: get more information as lines moved. Um, that's the beauty
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: of doing it twice Pittsburgh, and I think on Thursdays,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: by the way, we're probably not gonna go through every game.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: We're gonna examine where we are, what lines of move,
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: what new information has come in, and where we might
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: find our opportunities and how it's influencing what we're thinking
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: for the five picks that we end with in this show,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills. Before we got in the air,
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: we talked about Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Matt Mitchell, our producer,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: he is a massive Buffalo Bills fan. He's from the
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Paris of Western New York, Rochester, I mean not Buffalo.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: The Pittsburgh Steelers are six and a half point underdogs.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: This line has moved up. The total is forty eight
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: and a half right now. You could have had seven
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: for a couple of weeks there and moved up to
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: seven at one point with Pittsburgh. This is a classic
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: pros versus Joe's Uh. The last memory people have a
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is them getting destroyed at home by Cleveland in
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. And you know the Bills are the all
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: hyped team. You're gonna let any show you listen to
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: this offseason. They love Josh Allen to win m VP
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: of fourteen to one. They love the Bills would be
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: the number one seed. They love the Bills when the
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: a f C East, it's nothing but love from the
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. But here I am Chad Doo mcgloom. This
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: is this is what we do. Uh. This line in
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: any sharp sharp player could tell you this line should
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: be three or three and a half tops. You know,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: you give respect to the Bills what they have, and
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: you give them the home field respect because again, the
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: Bills might have the loudest, craziest fans in all football,
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: but they're not. They're six and a half favor six
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. It's insane to me where
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: I'm all four fading this Pittsburgh team. That's later in
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: the season when Big Ben starts breaking down and this
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: old line really starts to having trouble again, the old
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: line might be horrible and the Bills might take advantage
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: of that. I think this new system that Pittsburgh is
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: gonna be running, it's gonna be in the ball, quick
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: to the receivers. And you know, they dis drafted arguably
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: the best running back in the draft in the first
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: round of Harris. I have to have faith in Pittsburgh
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: keeping this game close, and I also have to take
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's money line here. So I'm more than happy to
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: put this in our contest at plus six and a half. Again,
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: road dog. It's always a little scary because again, we
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: don't know what it's gonna be like with these fans
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: back and what kind of difference that's gonna make. But
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: it just feels like way too big of a number
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: for a Bill's team that I'm asking to prove it
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: again to me this year. They were incredible last year,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: but that's all we've ever seen with the supposed to
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: be You've seen one good year from Josh Allen. So
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: just mathematically, I have to take the team I believe
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: in that it's more consistent in Pittsburgh, and you know,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: take that side there. Especially this money line above two hundred.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: You have to love the value of that hold on
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: money line above two hundred for the Pittsburgh Steelers. You're
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: basically saying, take a little taste on the Steelers to
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: win the game out right. Yeah, maybe we'll do it
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: on thirty They or made a just on Twitter, but
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: we'll definitely gonna do a round robin money line, uh
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: play this week and Pittsburgh they're they're one of my
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: favorite miny lines to play this week. Another team coming
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: up pretty soon, but this this Pittsburgh one, this is
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: this is one of these is just a pure value
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: based bet that this this number is so inflated you
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: have to play this Pittsburgh just for the just the
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: value alone, it's worth the play. Well, look this is
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: this is a classic pros versus Jose. As you said,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: majority of the money coming in on the Steelers, majority
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: of the bets coming in on the Buffalo Bills. Um Also,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: I'd be missed if I didn't mention Mike Tomlin what
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: what because Matt Mitchell loves to put in the Mike
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: Tomlin drops. I love the false enthusiasm. I letus say
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: we can make what do you guys quit today? But
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: in this instance it plays completely to his strengths. Mike
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Tomlin motivatings team as an underdog being disrespected. This is
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: when Mike Tomlin wins. This is when Mike Tomlin covers
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: and he doesn't cover when he's a favorite against bad games.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: Ra ra, Mike Tomlin spot win the game with cool
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: bodies right here today today. Now, if this is if
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: they're at home against Houston this week, they would lose
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: by two touchdowns. So so this is definitely when you
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: want to take Pittsburgh. Dude, right now, all of a sudden,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: we got three games that we love. We're gonna have
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: too many games because of course, I told you it's bad,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: weak ones bad from each last year. Minnesota Vikings at
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals. Minnesota is a three point favorite on the
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: road against the Bengals. We love home underdogs almost always.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: It's a sign of pure value generally to me, this
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: has to be in our contest for variety of reasons.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: A home underdog b Joe Burrow is back. I have
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: a lot of confidence in that. See he's got weapons
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: behind on his side. D I am not. I don't
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: have a lot of faith in what Minnesota is doing
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: at all right now. I think their teaming disarray. Thank god,
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: I'm not. I refuse let's put this one in, um,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: just because of my hate for Zach Taylor. But everything
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: you just said so right, cheat, this is classic. You
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: take Cincinnati Bengals plus three and a half as well,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: you can get that hook. I love it. Not that
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: mean Chad. We had been burned by Kirk Cousins. Um.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: He he is definitely one of those guys that has
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: burned us in the past. I like taking the Vikings
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: and this Kirk guy at home. That's when they played
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: well with this offense inside the dome at home. It's
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: one of these things I'm gonna be fading them a
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: lot on the road. And this sticks out where if
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: it wasn't such a question mark with Burrow, I just
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: I have we have not seen it um and the
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: stuff I've read about him and practice has not been
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: great either. I can't. I cannot tell people to bet
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: um the bangals this week. But what have you read
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: in practice about him? In practice that makes you nervous? Uh? Inconsistent?
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: His feet are very sloppy, like he's got the jitters,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: which again that's the biggest fear. A guy tears his
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: c l he's nervous about guys around his feet. So
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: if this guy came in the league, one of the
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: best things about him is he was really really smart
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: about moving in the pocket, stepping up in the pocket,
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: getting outside the pocket, and running with the football. We
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: saw his athleticism last year. This guy could actually roam
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: with the ball. We've lost a lot of that edge
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: with Joe Burrow this season. So I'm I'm cool sitting
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: this one out and just kind of watch and see
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: what happens in this game. Because both these teams, UH,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: just an incredible amount of question marks for each team.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: So I feel like we should just sit this one out,
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: chatin fine. Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons, Oh God, I
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: feel I'm herking back to what you said earlier in
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: the in our countdown to the games, reviewing every team,
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eggles, your eiggles. The line opened three and
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: a half, it is currently three and a half. The
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: total is forty eight and a half. I think we
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: love Atlanta, and I think we're gonna have to bet
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: Atlanta because this could potentially be in Atlanta Falcons podcast. Correct,
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: And I still actually had this at three and a
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: half and it's moved down, had a couple of different
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: books down to minus three. But for me, the easier
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: playing this game will just be the over. I can
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: see Atlanta themselves put up forty points, but I also
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: see the Eagles offense being better than people give them
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: credit for it, because again, the Eagles are healthy right now,
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: the whole offensive lines healthy. They have weapons of their
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: wire super position, they have you know, you can say
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: what you want about Zach Ertz. He's a pretty damn
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: good tight end. They got Dallas Carter the other tight end,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: pretty good tight end, and they have Miles Standards running back.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: So the safer playing in me feels like it's the total.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: We just take the over. But I like the line
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: as well for Atlanta. It's a fair number, so I
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: am taking thence three and a half. But I just
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: wouldn't force into our contest because it just feels like
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: there's better lines out there, all right. San Francisco forty
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Niners at Detroit Lions, San Francisco, which is a seven
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. The total is forty five,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: by the way, I went down from forty six. Explain
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: yourself on this because people need to understand why you
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: would do something as disgusting as this, and people just
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: aren't gonna get it. Chat. That's why I love this job.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: Even even if I win, I'm not. I'm just gonna
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: hear about how lucky I got that even took Detroit
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: because they got lucky. They even won this game against
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: the forty Niners. No ship, they got lucky to beat
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: the four ninety Niners are better than them on every
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: aspect of a football field, including coach. I mean the coaching.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: The coaching for the obviously is a big advantage. This
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: is more of a bet on Damiko Ryan's the first
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: year defensive coordinator for um the forty Niners. That's a
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: big deal. Okay, they lost their incredible uh defensive coach
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: the Jets. He's now the head coach of the Jet
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: So that's already a knockdown for the forty Niners. The
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: four Knights of QB drama the entire off season. You
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: can say what you want that, Oh, there's no real
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: drama there. They already moved up into the draft to
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: the third pick overall to draft this quarterback. Jimmy g
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: cannot be just be like, oh no, it's all good,
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Like I'm just playing for my career and I know
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: it's a big deal and it has to be wearing
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: on this guy. So just from the standpoint of I
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: like what Detroit has on offense, you know, I like Swift,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: I like Hockinson, I think golf in this kind of situation,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: and behind that old line can surprise some people. Again,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: I'm not telling Detroit's gonna be a five team this year,
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: but for first game of the year at home is
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: a home dog seven and a half points. Man, this
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: is an incredibly inflated line. Like we talked last week,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: I had this line at five two and a half points.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: Of value. This is one of my bigger bets of
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: the week, So I'll be on the seven half and
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: also be put throwing this money line with a couple
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: of their bets. So I'm a big, big, big Detroit
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: believer this upcoming weekend Wow money line. Well, I've already
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: circled it. I circled the games that we know we're
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: gonna want to put in the contest right now. I've
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: circled Washington football team. I've circled Texans, I've circled Steelers.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Now I've circled the Lions. I mean, that is truly disgusting.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know why we would actually, I don't know
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: why anyone would be listening to this podcast right now,
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: because all we're doing is asking people to do you
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: really disgusting things. And now a word from our friends
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• 38:51
  Speaker 1: the show. Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs. Cleveland is
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: a six and a half point underdog. Here's a rule
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: of some don't bet against Patrick Mahomes in September is
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: less than a touchdown favorite. I'm so glad you came
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: to that realization check because you were wearing me last week.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: We're like, we're taking Cleveland, right, and I was like,
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think we're gonna got over. I
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: got smart. Yeah, um yeah, exactly what you just said.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: And you're reading in September. You you just back them
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: and we joke all the time. This counts is the
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: in youre read after a bye week, doesn't it. I
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: mean he's had a two weeks to prepare for this team,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: so I love it. This is one of these where
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: the Bucks already talked I'm gonna take their money line
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: with a couple of teams. This is one of the
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: teams on parenting with Buck's money line on the Chiefs
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: money line. It's one of my bigger bets of the weekend.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: So I just I get the hype and the love
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: for Cleveland. This is just an awful matchup in Arrowhead
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: first week of the year. It's just way too much
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: for me to back Baker to go against my homes
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: in this kind of situation. So I am a Browns
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: believer in this upcoming season, but not this game. I
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: would take this up to minus seven. So I think
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: you're getting good value here at minus six. But is
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: that a put it in the contest kind of thing?
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: Like is that half point enough? Given the other games
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: that are still left on the board and the other
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: ones that we've been talking about, this would be i'd
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: added to the list. Definitely, minus six, I definitely add
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: that to the list of games we played. Anything it's
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: gonna it is six and a half, So that's not
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: an ideal, and I could see it hitting seven by
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: time we get to the contest time. But as long
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: as it stays below seven. Yeah, I'd put that in alright,
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: New York Giants. Uh So, now we've got five games,
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have to narrow some things down here. But
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: it's fine. It's only Tuesday. Was that last year? We
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: don't have We always have like seven or eight. Yeah,
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: we'd have seven, right, we'd narrowed it down. Yeah, I
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: got you. Denver Broncos at New York Giants the Denver
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: Broncos two and a half point home underdogs. The total
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: is a measily forty one and a half. A quick look,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: I believe this may be the lowest total on the
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: board for the entire weekend. Forty one and a half.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: What say you give me your take? I feel like
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: we gotta bet the Giants. I won't do that to you.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: It's definitely one of these games where you have to
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: bet the under. Like you just said, it is a
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: really low total, and that's usually kind of scary. But
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: we have two deferenses here that are very, very talented.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: We've seen how good the Denver's defenses last year, and
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: the Giants defense was very good last year as well.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: It's just one of the things where both these teams
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: lack the quarterback position. But I can't do it, Chat,
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: I cannot tell people to take Daniel Jones is a
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: home dog. I wish I could. I wish I could
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: just stand here and say, you know, home dog and
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: none of the money, none of the public's all over Denver.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: The lines moved I think two points now towards Denver.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: But I'm with the public move in this line. This
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: this line feels like it should be minus three, should
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: be minus three and a half with Denver. So for me,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: I like taking Teddy as an underdog. But we gotta do.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: We gotta do here, Chad, I have to take Denver
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: in this spot. But why would not put this in
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: the contest Because I just don't think we're getting good
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: value on the line. You're going to go against all
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: of our principles and actually bet a road favorite. The
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: public wins. Sometimes That's that's the hardest part of my job.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to figure out when the public is going
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: to be right. You know, the public might be right here.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: This line seems like it's a little undervalued right now.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: Broncos are getting the bets right now, so you are
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: accurate in that the public is coming in on Teddy covers,
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: not on Danny turnovers. There you go. Most interesting game
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: on the board, not from a betting perspective, but probably
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: from a drama perspective. Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. I'm the greatest. I'm the only reason anyone
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: wants to play here. I'll only sign a one year deal.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: There are four point favorites playing I forget where against
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: the displaced New Orleans Saints, who weren't where the quarterback
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: was going to be. It's now going to be famous Jamis,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: who has historically been a turnover machine. Their four point dogs.
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: I could have gotten this a couple of months ago
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: with the Packers at plus two and a half, when
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: the Aaron Rodger stuff was up in the air. How
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: do you handicap this right now? A month and a
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: week ago. That's that's how That's how quick it was
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: that that everything just changed. No means we were gonna
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: love to take New Orleans here. This is gonna be
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: such an easy bet for us, a home dog. No
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: one believes in them New Orleans at home in that
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: city with all those fans. But now we have a neutral,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: psyche game and are you are you telling me that
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: the Superdome is only worth one and a half points. No,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: that doesn't make sense. I don't know why I only
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: one from two and a half to four. To me,
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: this line should be six and a half seven. Um, right,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: So I think we're getting major value are on green Bay.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Making me a little nervous. It feels like maybe a
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: sports bet, sports books knows something. Maybe they're laying a
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: little trap, but I'm stepper right into it. This is
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: one of those again I've paired with the money line
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: where I already told you I did Bucks and the
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: Chiefs already. I have a bunch of Chiefs, green Bay,
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: Green Bay, and Buccaneers money line bets as well. So
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: it's one of these things where I just can't see
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: a scenario that Green Bay loses this game. They have,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: if not more talent on the defensive side now, because
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: the again New Orleans people understand their defense has actually
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: been one of the better things about than the last
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: two three years. They have a lot of injuries on
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: that defensive front right now. So again everything just points
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: to this this really being a train wreck kind of
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: season for the Saints and the starting off the year
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: Winston with this this this this offensive not question marks,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: but like, I know that they have a great offensive line,
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: and I know they have Komara, but the other aspects
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: of this team, it just frightens me. And Green Bay's
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: biggest weakness is they can be run on. So maybe
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: that's why this number is so low. But I'm drinking
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: the cool and I'm taking green Bay here. I'm riding
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: with the public again where I had to take this
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: number at at this exact time because I think it's
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: just incredibly undervalued. Do we think we're potentially adding this
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: to the contest. We we could be, but it's it's again,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: it seemingly these hard things where it's like, you know,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: I don't like having more than two or three favorites
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: in our contest, Like it served as well last year.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: We were kind of dog heavy and I really worked
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: out for us last year. So I do love the number.
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: I'm just worried it's gonna keep running up that by
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: the time it gets the contest it might be minus five,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: minus six. Well, look, we can evaluate, right, We've got
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: five six games that we're thinking about already, and so
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: it can be part of the list. We'll just put
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: on the list. Uh. This next game again, another one
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: full of drama. Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, rookie quarterback.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: New England is a three point favorite right now. This
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: game opened to two. The total is four to three
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: and a half, one of the lower totals on the board. Um,
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: the best of the money coming in New England. So
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: it feels like the public and the pre essionals are
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: aligned here. I don't know if you agree. Yeah, I
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: just I people will listen to offseas. I know I
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: love to Uh, I'm all in onto a. I get
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: the hype on mac England. New England fans are feeling
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: pretty good right now. It's life is pretty good because
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: he hasn't taken an actual snap in a real game.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: I couldn't have picked the worst defense for him to
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: go against. We know the miamis secondary. I mean, I
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: would have to look at my numbers. I'm pretty sure
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: I had them in the top three defenses coming to
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: the season. And people are really hyping up the Patriots
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: defense because of all the signings they made this offseason.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: Gilmore is not back Stephane Gilmore is gonna be out
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: for six or seven weeks. They put him on the
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: pup list, So a rookie skin his home first start.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: I get to love the excitement, especially that Miami is
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: kind of one of these teams where people are so
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: unsure if to uh. But two has already gone through
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: everything Mac Jones is gonna be going through this year,
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: the growth and the like the fault of a rookie quarterback.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: So the fact that this line isn't a pick, I'm
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: getting a plus and we're taking the money line here
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: with Miami. I love the value on Miami, but again,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: this is one of these I wouldn't put the contest
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: because it's a little it's a little scary chat with
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: TWA here, because we're kind of stepping off into the
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: deep end where it's like we're gonna know pretty quick
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: if two has got it or not. Because last year
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: was just a wash for the kid. He's coming off
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: a major hip injury, didn't really know the offense, no excuses.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: Now too has had a whole off season, He's got
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: a ton of weapons around him. It's really gonna be
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: a statement game from Miami. So I am a believer
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: in Miami, but not a believer enough to put him
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: in the contest. All right, Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams,
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: my beloved Bears. I don't think we can do anything
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: with this game, Simon. I don't think I can handle
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: it emotionally. I don't think there's any value here on
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: the other side. But you tell me now, the lines
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: moved too much. It's six six and a half there
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: with some value, but we don't believe in Stafford like
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: I'm not. There's no way I'm taking Stafford minus seven
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: and a half. I don't care the hype that the
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: Rams are getting right now and how bad the Bears
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: have looked, but I am a sucker for paining. So
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: this is definitely one of these games where I'm gonna
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: have the Rams money line with those other teams, with
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: Green Bay, the Chiefs, and the Bucks, I'm gonna have
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: a bunch of two team money line bets, and the
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: Rams are gonna be one of those teams in there.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: Because I just don't see scenario Andy Dalton if he's
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: down seven driving the field to try to tie this
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: game up down the game, no faith in him to
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: do it against this defense. So I do like the
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: value in the Rams money line, but I hate the
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: number I think that's seven and a half. It's come
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: kick off. I'm gonna be taking the Bears and hating
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: myself for it because there's no way they cover it.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: But just as a professional, I have to take this number.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: This number is way too big for a Rams team
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: with so much to prove to be favored by the
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: first week of the season. Wait, so you're you you
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: like the Bears at seven and a half only because
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: the number and the circumstances, not because of the talent
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: on either side. Yeah, so seven sevens of that's this
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: game is a touchdown game. Um, just if they play
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: this game a hundred times over sixty perot the time,
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: I can see this game landing on the seven. So
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: I think you're getting really a good value here with
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: the Bears. Like you just said, if we don't want
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: to put in this game and it's we don't believe
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: in any Dulton when if this was justin fields, this
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: would be a no brainer play. But now I'm not
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: putting real money on any Dalton this upcoming week Baltimore
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders. All Right, so here's what's
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: interesting to me, knowing what I know about you and
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: Derek Carr, I feel like when I'm looking at this
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders number right now, it's four and a half,
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: their four and a half point home dogs against the Ravens,
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: I feel like you're going to try to convince me
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: that I want the Raiders at plus four and a half.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: Of course you do. We don't do money night games though.
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: That's the whole thing with us in our context, me
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: and you, I'd like to be done by Sunday, but
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: this will definitely be my round robin money line. But Oakland,
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: I mean Las Vegas Raiders, I should say opening night. Man,
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: this is this is gonna be pretty amazing, especially the
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: fact that it's money night game. I really can't wait.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: Wh This is ugly, Chad, This is an ugly bet
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: taking this because you can look at the data the
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Ravens first week of the year, they killed teams. They
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: usually dominate teams, but every couple of ten years they
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: do trip up, and we're kind of betting on this
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: being one of those every ten years kind of messed
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: up games. So it's not the most confident better the week.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: But this is overinflated. This line. This should be three
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: or three and a half. Who are who are the
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: Ravens to be fair by this many points. They don't
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: really have a number one receiver. I guess it's Sammy Watkins,
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: but who really knows. They only have two healthy running
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: backs on this team. Their offensive line isn't is healthy
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: right now and improved, and Lamar is back from COVID.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Just a couple of red flags though, uh for me
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: with this team, So in a game that could be
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: seen a shootout, I love having that many points where
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders because it's again it's an over
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: inflated line, because it's a primetime game. So I get
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: the love on Sunday night for the Rams, but here
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: on Monday Night, we're not getting back to back big
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: favorites when in primetime games the bookmakers aren't that kind.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: So for for all those reasons right there, I just
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: love the value on Las Vegas. I feel like, and
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: I do think we should talk about this on Thursday.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: Um You've mentioned sort of money line parlays three or
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: four different times, and it feels like there's two different
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: categories you're looking at. There is the money line parlay
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: that is the big favorites, and the money line parlay
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: that is the the underdogs you think you have a
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: chance to win. This is a preview. You don't need
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: to answer it, but it feels like that's what we're
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: talking about, and we'll go deeper on Thursday. Yeah, I'm
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: a big fan of anything greater than tend to one.
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: If I can pare up a couple of money line
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: dogs to get better odds than tend to one, you
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: know the math, Chad, That means only have to hit
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: them every nine times, and I'm getting my money back
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: for each one of these crazy bets. Last year was
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: a flupe year. I'm not gonna lie to people. We
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: were hitting crazy money line dogs all last year. Like
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: my return on investment was insane. So I don't always
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: do money line parlay, especially with the favorites for early
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: weeks like this, where the lines are so sharp because
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: bookmakers have had so much time to tinker with the lines.
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: I'm more often than not if I like a favorite,
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: just to take the money line because I just feel
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: like the bookmakers usually get these lines so right. So
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: it's not that I'm a coward, but I kind of am.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: You know, you're just a goddamn color. I won't have
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: songs of pitches. We're afraid to fight staking up this
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: place of honor here, God damn coward. Well you're a
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: very wealthy coward. Let's look at our This is the
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: list that we're talking about, and then we'll be thinking
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: about over the next forty eight hours to start Washington
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: Football team plus one, Textans plus two and a half,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh plus six and a half, Detroit plus seven and
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: a half. That's four uh, Kansas City minus six and
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: a half uh. And then we're tinkering with Green Bay
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: minus four and if we really really wanted to and
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: go crazy, we think about the Raiders plus four and
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: a half um. And then again we will update this.
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: We will be thinking about this. We will talk about
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: this on Thursday. Our final five best picks will be
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: put into the Action Network Gap on Sunday. The games
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: that we ultimately feel best about based online moves, injuries, news, etcetera.
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: It's a lot, it's a lot of download, a lot
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: of digest I feel like we're giving people an early
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: indication of what they should be betting right now and
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: what they should be looking forward to for the rest
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: of the week. What do you think, Simon and that's
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: what's gonna be like people. I know we're gonna overload
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: you a little bit with this information. It's a lot
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: to hang on Tuesday. But that's why we're ating the
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: other show. It's gonna be a lot, a lot easier
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: to digest. We're gonna keep rebreaking things down on Thursday,
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: and then uh, come Sunday, we'll do that morning show.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: It's it's only gonna be give out one or two
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: bets or this show we're gonna be giving out. Our
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: big bets are five bets. We gotta do. Simon says, So,
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: which one of these games is? Simon says, just bet it?
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: Just better? Right now, hold your nose, do it. Listen
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: to me and go. Simon says, bet on the Signons
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: says one. Simon says, do it. We do what Simon says.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: Simon says bet on Detroit seven a half. Oh my god,
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: I can't believe that's what you went with. It is
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: I have to because I can see this line into seven.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: I just know for a fact professionals are going to
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: hit this line and a lot of books are gonna
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: be down to seven six and a half before kickoff.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: So I know it's ugly people, and you're really gonna
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: hate me if this doesn't work out. But shut up
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: and just listen with Simon says, and bet this number
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. When Simon, when we do, we're disgusting.
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: I can't believe we're asking people to do this. We should.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: We don't even deserve a podcast. Speaking up, we do
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: have a podcast, and we asked you to send us
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: in some reviews. The winner that I'm choosing right now
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: that Simon, Matt Mitchell and I discussed before the show began.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: Who was going to get one of Simon's four best
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: picks of the year. Well, they're in the run. We said,
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do it for two weeks. They have a
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: whole another week. You're in the running. You're you're part
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: of a drawing. Most discerning reviewer that is his name,
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: five star review. I owe this podcast my life and
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: then in parentheses, partner. When I started listening to Chad Moman,
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: I was unattractive and broke. Since Simon has joined, I
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: have a smoking hot fiance and I look exactly the same.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: Just saying five stars only because I can't give them ten.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good. That's pretty good. Also, it's worth noting
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: that the reviewer who hurt my feelings last week when
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: he said I was annoying but Simon was great. He
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: wrote Matt Mitchell and he said, I've actually been listening
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: for a few years, and I've been an Action Network
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: subscriber for just as long. I wrote the review as
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: a goof hoping to troll Chad, and it succeeded beyond
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: my wildest dreams. I'm assuming his irritating behavior behavior is
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: a stick. I'm sure he's a nice guy. That's nice.
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: Keep assuming, so sign it. I think we covered everything show.
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell kind of hates us right now. He's pissed.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: He's pissed. We went a little bit longer, but it
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: was clean. So I feel like, first of one, we
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: gotta get into practice. Yeah. I would never complain about long,
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: actionable content. You know that true, Simon. I want people
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: to download the podcast from Spotify, from Apple podcast, wherever
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: you get this podcast. Come back on Thursday. Will narrow
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: down our picks. We'll have even more detailed information. Go
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: make your Detroit lines. Simon says plus seven and a
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: half pick come back for the big Balls bet of
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: the week. For the hornets Nest. Bet for more reviews
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: from more chances to win. I am Chadmillman. He's Simon
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: Hunter until Thursday. I love you ye,