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Construcción Plural - Programa 1132 · Construcción Plural - Radio Trend Topic

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Plural construction, the renowned journalistic program of political analysis and current in its twentieth
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season, with the leadership of Fernando Mauri and a team of prestigious analysts listen
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to it on radio train topic how about, my friends, very but very
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good afternoon, a new start of the week under construction prubal on a earthy
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cool day. We thought autumn was going away and spring was coming. Or
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well, last summer' s backwater. And yet, today, even by
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some little rain overturned this windy one. I love the day like this,
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but maybe a lot of good. Rivera ranked at one point he was out,
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then he scored three goals, nothing more, nothing less eye drops,
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so he' s inside that two more firsts at least passed the fifth first,
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San Lorenzo, served the technician and in the judgment of friend Juan,
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who operates us as always very richly, says it was time. Indeed,
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ending the cycle insu I see trends on Twitter. I see rage is or
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you have that Big Brother the most interests us in the social network X of
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the Pajarito israelle Great since pregnancy Petri, the Minister Defense, Milay, world
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shame, etcetera, etc. And they go through FOBAE. I see the
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tone to say with the subject of the war conflict once again, in this
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case between Iran Israel and make some reminder in the financiers. Obviously, in
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free Holen going up to a thousand this thirty goes up twenty, twenty-
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five pesitos. Osmitialism pretends that in the later basic law begins to be debated
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in the week that come in commissions for security issues. Something as reasonable as
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overacting the above. Previous austerity for security issues, Miley will stop traveling on
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commercial flights. Hard message from Cristina Kisner against Miley' s neu play baz
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at the USR. He thinks he reinstates the chapter of another van calero plus
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pressure on the government. I' m deleting news that has nothing to do
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with us. A long rosary tronism. How much the narco camps paid to
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send artists to kill. The beachman the four hundred thousand pesos ahead of them
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in a little while. Let' s go talk to Jorge and Panucci.
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Traidien on the list of financial markets. He is defined as much more there
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in the social network of the Pajarito, in a list of economics finance global
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brand consultant, columnist cristorio and journalists, and we will also talk to Marcelo
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Candelmis just about the situation in the Orientrio. But now the time to go
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over the politics a little bit. I do it with the friend of the
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house, another inflator plantense, don Carlos Germano, Carlos Good afternoon, how
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he doing hello, Fernando, how you go to do it. Good afternoon,
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very good. Well, look at the country. It turned out to
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them that the first time was left out, they remained fifth in their areas
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and went carambolo almost to meet others. Result the Argentine tie June of Barraca
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Central and others. There were cousins left in his group and he can even
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come across his mouth on the weekend. And it could all be me I
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think you saw it' s a rather atypical championship, but good. I
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think he won well. Rivera to be seems to me that even though he
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was losing, I think very good game and good and with no out there
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his nine headline and without his defender. I' d tell you more,
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the best performance comes with the fact that it had to come out. He
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was replaced by a twenty- year- old foot, in which the truth
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walked well. You saw that I believe that situations are taking place where it
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seems to me that they are giving all the conditions in an atypical difficult championship,
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with where it seems to me that the one that had the most regular
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was the Mendoza de Cruz team. Okay, so today, if they'
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re regular, it could complicate your story by mouth or exactly. Exactly well
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we will see good to see when we see that the President fights with Jorge
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Lanata, that nerista has nothing beyond all social networks and libertarians on social networks.
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Others when we see that on the weekend Miel Telegram again criticized Miley'
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s government now for censorship and prices, when we see Queris Garrio, who
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also a little bit like us better now, we like less as a kind
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of prosecutor a little bit, a figure who can' t rule anything,
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like Gurrio, but yes, as I say works a little as a certain
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morale and says that we are facing the greatest attack in the middle class of
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history. How much does this type of leading that there are say these cases,
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the cream mireta carri We are not talking again about Gustavo Silvestre, Roberto
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Navarro. We are not talking about the couple of actors, a current gender
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couple, an actor generate pun tore. Let us say in public opinion these
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remarks that make some figures that have clearly also been criticisms of genierism or anti
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- Americanism. Directly, look, you know what I think. At the
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moment, I do not think that they are the central issues of citizens'
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concerns. But to the extent that Miley' s government does not meet the
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expectations that society is asking for this government, you who are still in the
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pocus group today and people talk about it being difficult to reach the end of
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the month or those who are coming at the end of the month to adjust
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their quality of life. But that way everyone has hope that they will change,
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that they must be supported. I say if those expectations that are being
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given begin to give, because I believe that what my law achieved is to
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generate future is that what the great mass of Argentine was asking. I'
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d tell you the names you gave today can start to reverberate, but in
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the future, not right now. I believe that at this moment Javier Miley
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still enjoys a certain empathy, a certain satisfaction with many sectors of society.
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Not because you' re doing a management that I' d tell you,
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the management is rather regular down. I' d tell you because what comes
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out as an alternative is expensive. Let' s say they have to do
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with the failure of society to turn the page in November last year and Javier
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Miley was elected President of the Republic. I mean, it' s the
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opposition' s hundicap. Also with everything that was like a bomb, don
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' t have any political doubts. It' s hard to think they put
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it in it' s spilled in four months. But I say but Milley
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' s great blackmail is in front. There' s nothing, there'
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s nothing armed, there' s nothing drinking a priori exactly. And what
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voices are more fiercely opposed has more to do with the past than with the
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future. You include him here. If Lopa, for example, I say
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that if lov today is ruling that if I think he is with a problem
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that in politics it is difficult to measure that if lops were ahead of him
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the political times, but not by him, but by the internal gravity of
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Peronism today. That is, in politics it is very important to know how
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to manage the times and today, four months after having been re- elected,
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Kitty became the figures of post- Kirnerism, but not by decision or
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because she is generating political actions to occupy that place, but the orphanhood of
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figures, of figures with a future within Peronism and fundamentally, of Quisnerismo,
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are putting it in a place that, undoubtedly, I believe Javier Miley is
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not comfortable. Not that Javier Miley not that Achel Quisilo forgives, what an
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ailment that excuses me, that Soap, which I understand is like it can
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suffer premature wear. Let' s say it so exactly, because that'
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s why I say it' s always very important in politics to manage the
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times. And there it seems to me that where I am seeing the problem
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that if lov that apart Fernando can handle last year, for extraordinary contributions,
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received figure of almost eight hundred billion floors, eight hundred billion weight. I
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say well, and this year that' s not happening. In other words,
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to enter a province of Buenos Aires that, from a financial point of
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view, is very delicate. Not to see some reference that you made you
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qualify the government in a management of regular down. And I would say to
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you that the government enters these sixteen and fifteen, sixteen days or fourteen that
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are missing to end April as a fact, as very very turning point.
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I' d tell you why and because he' s needing some legislative success
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today. So far, the Government is invisto not to draw up a legislative
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draft. And I would tell you that in that scenario, but not only
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for domestic politics, but also for international politics. Many sectors are watching the
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Millie phenomenon, the show man Millay. Let' s say about the actor,
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who fundamentally overreacts, but he' s looking. Let' s say
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a man of courage, a man who is generating a very strong fit and
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playing. Let' s say some objects, objectives that Argentina' s politics
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had never touched before, but what it is looking for is also of some
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degree of institutionality and that Parliament, let' s say, can begin to
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accompany some of the projects of the President of the Republic. So I'
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d tell you today I' m talking about how to manage the arion,
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a still mediocre management, not an almost discarding one. Let' s just
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say I remember it' s gonna come through. Say yes now, let
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' s see the small lyrics the particular, but that well, it already
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had an approval in a half sanction of deputies in general, except that the
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Senate does not support that generism achieves guided one discards that deputies, to say
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the first station, will achieve it again. No, let' s say,
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I was thinking the same thing in February of this year and yet when
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it came in general, yes, when it came to particular, the differences
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arose. I think it seems to me that h yes, the first of
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March. It was a before and after where it seems to me that they
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also took a very important leading role in political negotiation. So much so,
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Nicolás pose that began to have a much more accentuated political activity until the first
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of March. Practically no voice was known to Nicolás pose and it also seems
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to me that the Minister of the Interior, Guitarmo Franco, took a much
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more important role. From there, I think they were able to start agreeing
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fundamentally with the governors and with the dialectist blocks and look. A tip I
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' m telling you. Last week, in the Senate of the Nation was
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formed the Committee on Agriculture and Livestock, which was chaired by the president,
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the Senator for Entre Ríos, Alfredo de Angelis, and gave you an interesting
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size because they came from a frustrated session in which they had not achieved for
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one and the other week that to get the quarum the one that gives the
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curun is the senator for Rio Negro. It responds politically to the governor of
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the province, who in turn was one of those who said they were against
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the DNEU, that their senator voted against the NEU, meaning that the agreements
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and dialogues, that is, between the national government and some governors, began
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to give results in the chambers. I am rescuing this because it seems to
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me that this has a lot to do with the great change that took place
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from the speech of the President of the Republic on 1 March and from there
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on a scenario of greater political agreement, trying to seek agreements that would be
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of utmost importance to the Government. See, you told me that right now
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people are looking more, the economy is creamy while big et cetera are sidelined.
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The same thing, for example, is raised with this issue of the
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actions that I am going to mark also that word regarding the Middle East,
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the management about Israel, because I say one this time things on social networks
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deliriums and some things you tell. I saw a consistent tweet that said that
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when it was the flood, I believe Maria Blanca according to month and peak,
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as the government said, do not solve you. I' m not
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going to give a mango and now I' m going to help, even
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with troops, Ukraine or Israel. Neither is that, and let' s
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say it' s still the most sensitive visor, the pocket where we say
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the mind is almost 100% of the people and everything else harms us remains
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in any case, if the expectation is not fulfilled and they will all come
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together for evil. But there' s no look today. On that side,
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God, no costs are paid either. On that side, I ask
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look. What I think is that I spoke about performances in which the President
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aborts a trip abroad, comes to make a crisis commission, to be in
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permanent contact with other presidents. In no president of the Western world generated a
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crisis committee that we are going to address this issue. That is why it
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seems to me that there is a very strong overaction of the President of the
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Republic who, in some way, is trying to open up the real public
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concern. Today let' s say all the polls start there are two historical
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concerns, which is inflation and insecurity, and there is one that starts to
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settle down slightly in the top three, which is unemployment, which is a
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subject that should be followed more clearly. I don' t remember if we
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talked about it, but that' s a risk that they' re not
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good, that some people aren' t good at it, or ingenuity very
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good, but that some of us are aware that, instead of the agenda
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continuing because the monothem was inflation and you give such adjustment and so on,
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the issue is going to be income and the issue is going to be labor,
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that is, believing that it' s just people as if it wasn
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' t something dynamic. Well, and that' s something that can eventually
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happen, not that it' s rhyme. Well, yeah, inflation,
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well, it' s moderating, but mach now I don' t have
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it to eat. Or I kept saying a chango, I ran out of
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work, exactly, well, that' s starting to happen. But I
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say I repeat you again. I think the President' s still got a
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tip that you' re playing a lot for him. It continues to manage
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the public agenda of the nation' s public agenda. He never lost it,
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not even in spite of the defeat. The legislative defeat of the month
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of February always generated a set of agendas and it seems to me that in
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that scenario of re- entering today still. What is helping him a lot
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is anarchization, because really of the opposition in general and you see the three
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fronts, or the three historical parties or the two historical parties plus the one
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talking about Peronism, radicalism and pro me. I would tell you that today
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the central problem that these parties are having is that there is a very important
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deflation of leadership. I mean, today the central problem is that there are
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no concrete leaders, that is, that they may be figures that monopolize the
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discontents, that there may be in certain sectors of society and well, in
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that scenario, it seems to me that Javier Miley still has a way to
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move with at least some degree of tranquility. Okay I say today it is
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only Cristina Fernández to criticize the neu de Milay again to himself equal is a
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bit critical tactic, not critical in which it is guarded. It' s
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mass and I have a debate between colleagues of yours that massa can come back
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with chance, that more can be turned and burned, but until being able
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to be candidate so that they don' t see chance. Ask to see
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the hard one. Let' s say more to the chances of you already
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see it as a competitor, an interesting competitor in the future. Or even
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though you' re singing it, you' re past your quarter of an
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hour. Let' s say look at politics never say never. I think
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so. I think that of all the leaders let' s say first level,
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the smartest attitude so far was Sergio Massan' s. Sergio Maya took
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a step to the side. Let' s just say he rearranged his party,
19:03
which is the renewing front. Not on the same day that the Justice
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Party gathered in park did not meet, he set up his own Congress,
19:21
nominated a leader of the province of Santa Fe, a constitutionalist of fuste would
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tell you, Minister of Transportation of the Nation of the Fernández Government, who
19:34
is Diego Zuliani. He tried to give as a renewal in the party.
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I would tell you that Sergio Massa I don' t see him without any
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chance. I think we need to see how the circumstances are going. And
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that' s the one that I think is moving and the one that'
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s better understanding the cities, situation that we' re saying is going through
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Argentine politics and that' s what it means. Renew the game to inside
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a renewal of directional names and it is saved by hour waiting for the moment
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to appear. Let' s just say I don' t think there'
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s any directional renewal. They' re selling that that there' s a
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management renovation and I think he' s taking care of himself. He now
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appears with a book where he will tell his experience as Minister of Economy of
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the Nation. It seems to me that he is taking steps very, very
20:36
quiet, seeing how this scenario is going and what is the left or not
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of the national government. And I' d say he' s looking mainly
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at the year two thousand twenty- five, mainly from March, when candidates
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begin to be defined at the June closing of that year. Well well,
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other actors don' t see let' s say light all that is also
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questioned. I don' t know if for the affiliate, but for the
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leadership, for the horrors that need money. I mean, don' t
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you see, another one that pulls out a little bit of a head,
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say no. Me. What I' m seeing, what I' m
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seeing in radicalism is that it seems to me that there is also clearly a
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lack of important leadership. A martin liked to see clearly what happened in the
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Senate with respect to the DNU delegation of half a delegation sanction, that is,
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the party president voted in one way and his fellow benches voted in another
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way. It seems to me that there is a difficult situation to reconcile in
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the future. No, I' m going a Martin Lusto, not like
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a leader trying to contain the whole party. If I don' t think
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you' re thinking more about your personal projections. This seems to me to
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be a difficulty, at least to lead a party. I have to generate
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it and analyze it institutionally. And from an institutional point of view, I
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would say that man seems to me to generate more doubts than certainties. It
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' s not good to see three or four shorties to YOU before you continue
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to thank yourself. We' re talking to our columnist Carlos Germano today He
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' s more than fifty- fifty. When he says I would win in
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the first round, my approval grew since I was here in the government managing
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things that that for me a deception, I say, more or less opening
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up with your colleagues we are not in a MEETINGNIT and more or less say
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you share this quantitative data. Yeah, yeah, I think that' s
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what' s going on. In other words, what is striking is that
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in the face of a very strong, very strong adjustment that is being made
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is that it still maintains, maintaining that degree of adherence and where you fundamentally
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manage me, I am managing a lot for qualitative works and where I am
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seeing that good. Let' s hope the effort we' re making this
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time is worth it. Not that there' s a feeling here. I
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' d tell you how that feeling is when it assumes in the year one
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thousand and forty chartield of sweaty and teary blood and it seems to me that
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that' s like in some ways, obviously, with differences and so on,
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there are many sectors of society and a sort of replica of that sweaty
23:45
blood and tears. I want to believe. But I say I ask to
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see you cap since you speak to me of the gualitativos, it is no
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longer the expectation and even of their voters. I don' t want to
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be wrong if I voted for it and so on than explicit support. Whether
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we say it or not. This is a very subtle depression I' ve
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found and you say no to me. The truth is the same gurative and
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apon not the truth that I see it subtle yours I think someone has said,
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someone has told me, not even some colleague you have told me,
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I do not I is fine after, or what I see that society does
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not find, let' s say fate in other spaces. No, I
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' m telling you, nine today. I' m sorry last week,
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and I' m done with this. Last week. You saw the CGT
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photo when they called for the May 9 stoppage and the May 1 mobilization.
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Or I looked out and society said yes, but to see one I can
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' t compare. You speak of charch I compare in part by saving the
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distance with Alfonsín, the first electoral defeat of Peronism, the Peronism that is
24:52
razed and the one that carried the flag of trying to pierce and how he
24:56
spent it enough with thirteen. If I do not remember for Generals Fubaldini,
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who was also a trig or more of stigmatizing, it was not popular afterwards
25:02
and even over time, if it is a reading that was a fairly honest
25:04
leader and I, but at that time it was the barier for a moment
25:10
and in that it led the recovery a little bit, but Nista, at
25:12
least in terms of paring and wearing down the government in turn. I'
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m telling you, the weeds are unpresentable. I think we' re already
25:18
counting for 90% of the vaporation. But jue can play his little game
25:22
too in terms of good. While the fart is ordered, it may never
25:25
be ordered, but you comment orders well, the SGT carries the ship.
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On that side, no, yes, I see it as good. That
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is what I think is benefiting the national government strongly. Power. Let'
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s say, I think today they were born Let' s say before the
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virtual state of leadership deficit that the fart has and in which the pijota does
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not clearly pose an important political discussion, because this and this fundamentally happens through
26:03
the participant' s vote. I' m talking about the ratification of leadership.
26:07
It seems to me that it has to be for internal elections. As
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long as that doesn' t happen and the faces that remain the emerging opponents
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today, it seems to me that everything was in favor of government or that
26:25
yes now is not a way to channel the protest. Let' s tell
26:26
the truth. If I can, I' m fit not as a stop
26:30
worker. It is not a way of channelling, even if I do not
26:33
like or give a hint, no longer of channelling my discontent for that forty
26:37
- five fifty percent according to me, what I believe is that the degree
26:45
of the rupture it has with its bases is very strong and I believe that
26:48
the success or not of a stoppage is going to be given in that there
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is transport, there is no transport. Yeah, yeah, like part of
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it seems to me like it' s going through there, I' d
26:56
tell you. I believe that today the worker' s relationship with his diligence
27:03
in general is very, very resentful. All right, let' s see
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two other raps. I' ve got to close now. Karina Miley,
27:11
I don' t see her candidate. Oh, it' s the lawmaker
27:15
' s denial. I' d like your opinion. The same thing happens
27:18
to me. I think he' s going to be the figure who'
27:22
s going to try to make the central armament. She is a figure with
27:26
a lot of eagerness for power, but I don' t see her as
27:33
a candidate either, although I do recognize her remembering Carlos Rautterman at some point
27:37
there in a talk I had with him in the year two thousand four,
27:45
when the conflict Kifner dualde was already beginning to be sketched out. Carlos told
27:45
me, don' t ever forget that Kifner has the lady and that'
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s playing for her. Well, here' s Miley He' s got
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his lady and a lady who' s really looking forward to deepening for power.
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But like the perception I have, the relationship between them is so strong
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that the same thing happens there as you. I don' t see her
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candidate. Someone gets in too Sometimes he gets angry sometimes he doesn' t.
28:11
Not important, it has no image. She looks like she' s
28:17
way behind the coortinate with a power the brother gave her, but people didn
28:19
' t vote for it. Obviously, this happens with any minister. Obviously
28:22
we' re not all of us, but I say you, you have
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some number, you have some kind of qualitative contitative. They' re the
28:27
image of Karina Miley not today. I believe that, within what is freedom,
28:32
the figure after my law advances, more important than today is the vice
28:37
president of the Republic You have no more gone, has a public statement.
28:45
The Vice President said I' m here for the great work Karina Miley did
28:52
and last year. Well, what' s the future of Macrie' s
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two words at last, because well, it' s obvious that she'
29:03
s like, and she' s doing well, and she' s eating
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part of the electorate, and if she' s doing wrong, the bow
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is hard for her to come up with similar flags. Say the prosen walks
29:12
nothing, a UCD saving the distances from menem penimuscr a big monster against something
29:18
small. But I say and today my law doesn' t even have a
29:22
gun in the whole country. Or what is any future you see the pro
29:25
let' s say. Me. What I see from the pro is that
29:29
today let' s say his voters, his historical followers, are much closer
29:38
to Javier Miley than to pro Si Javier Miley and he' s doing well.
29:42
It seems to me that the bow has to accompany, but today I
29:48
do not see it with a proposal that overcomes or as an alternative to freedom
29:56
advances that space. Today it seems to me that it generated it, generated
30:02
it and captured it the freedom goes here what is happening, that Javier Millay
30:07
was underestimated, thinking that Mauricio Macri took over practically the government. It was
30:15
like Macria to power Well, that didn' t happen. I believe that
30:17
Patricia Bulri' s play, taking off from Matri, undoubtedly affected him and
30:22
affected him so much. So he had to agree and be able to reach
30:29
an agreement with the charges, because if he didn' t get too complicated
30:33
the leadership so that within days he would assume as president of the party spoken
30:40
of popular figures Mislay, Villarruel and Llaról Milay. Then they say there'
30:41
s a Rich Burris la Bella coming, almost playing libertarian. Some talk about
30:45
even a confrontation Burry first candidate for deputy and wanting to be next president by
30:52
scale previous head of government porteña versus pro the forces of Mauritius and Jorge Macri.
30:56
In the city let' s say almost in libertarian Tim Rich as we
31:00
once say I see her much more libertarian than the pror. Looks like there
31:07
' s one more jump with all the winnings in the race. We die,
31:10
as the vast majority of Argentine politicians say, I think there is a
31:18
realignment that is taking place and it is quite normal that it is happening in
31:22
freedom advances. Let' s say freedom advances came with stamps of Goma.
31:26
I would tell you none of the deputies and senators who today have autonomy and
31:30
political volume of their own. They came by the figure of Javier Miley.
31:34
It seems to me that in a situation like the one that took place with
31:40
freedom progresses, I believe that today a figure like that of Burris contributed an
31:45
important political volume and apart taking on one of the hottest issues in the public
31:52
concern that in insecurity and specifically also had the drug terrorism issue in Rosario.
31:59
Finally, in two times colliding with the pro because I don' t think
32:01
there' s an alliance. For example, the district of Buenos Aires with
32:05
Bullry candidate for first deputy against not someone of the macrism, for the pro
32:08
in Buenos Aires city. I believe that what I see today is a Matricia
32:12
bullrit aldiata national senator for the leading capital, for federal capital, for neither
32:20
freedom progresses. Yes, yes, representing the national executive. Last question,
32:28
final ras, I no longer have time and pro and freedom progresses. What
32:30
fusion would look like. I don' t have an open merger, but
32:35
what' s in their interest is going separately and that pile of lawmakers.
32:37
But I' m saying how we suppose there' s an amalgam. Well,
32:39
let' s agree. It feels Mauritius b that the thing goes more
32:42
or less well for government you look and decide to go allied to the election.
32:46
How this alliance is translated into the roles of a legislative election such as
32:51
that of October and to what comes or gift fifteen, the pro with radicalism
32:53
as the pro with radicalism. In the two thousand fifteen was I already one,
33:01
the pro two the radicalipo one. Ah, but in one you say
33:06
union of lists of these Uniteds in front if exactly as a front on which,
33:13
obviously, centrality is not going to have it the pro but centrality is
33:16
going to have it the national executive, which is the freedom advance you notice
33:23
that in the two to one, which is freedom advances all. Freedom progresses
33:29
depends on depending on the district against one of the pro and vice versa.
33:31
Exactly how this happened let' s change in the two thousand fifteen, where
33:37
usually the political centrality kept it pro and radicalism accompanied well Carlos a taste as
33:45
always. Thank you so much. He' s looking forward to a superclassic
33:46
on the weekend, or I prefer another rival by starting to heat up,
33:51
let' s say the next round of this tournament. The your classic is
33:52
too fast for the first ending has to be classified. Yeah, yeah,
34:01
well. I totally agree. Total agreement. We wish our cousins luck.
34:05
Please, of course open a hug. Hondas, Carlitos. Thank you,
34:09
Carlos Germano in plural construction. Jorge is already waiting for us and we are
34:13
going to the rapid batch and we are greeting him to analyze a little bit
34:16
the economic reality. As I say to you today, he raised the dollar
34:19
a little bit and he' s at$ 130 the Blue Dollar one thousand
34:22
forty connect of the blue dollar. Well, just a good day to analyze
34:23
with Jorge El all with like. It' s in a thousand sixty-
34:25
four, all up. The month one thousand thirty- two left to go
34:29
up also a point and a half two thousand three hundred ninety- four.
34:31
Well, the Middle East sensors will tell us why they compared it It'
34:36
s a little bit here. Moving to the arches before we remind you that
34:43
you can find us on social networks, on our website, where we extend
34:46
our journalistic work. We find ourselves on Twitter under Nick Arroba, approaches on
34:51
Instagram fer M two thousand twenty- two. Fer M de Fermaury two thousand
34:57
twenty- two and, as always where we go up the program analysis of
35:01
specialist columnists. Our triple handle web approaches you, blogs, you are a
35:09
fan of beef, in Argentine meat, ar and find the best tips,
35:16
tricks and recipes to prepare the best meat in the world and enjoy it with
35:22
family and friends. If I understood you well with the taxes on the fare,
35:27
at the rates scythe all mouths, people run out of money, not
35:30
buying or the drai bacdad told you. Although you have the face of an
35:36
economic commentator, you can see that you are understanding the coop to look at
35:38
that or something. People are drier than country cookie. He can only not
35:44
buy dollars, but he can buy us morfe and he can buy us medicine.
35:46
You can' t buy pastia, you can' t buy paint,
35:50
you can' t buy comb, you can' t buy comb. Nothing
35:51
can buy. It' s small details. So much medical Mitra gave me
35:54
a wafer that said I don' t have stereo. Small detail emerges from
36:00
the domestic economy micro we care about in the macroeconomics. So much for me
36:04
that in a short time we' re gonna change the face of the poor
36:08
country, they' re gonna disfigure it more. Peron' s not here
36:09
yet. The only thing we ask for is a small effort today so tomorrow
36:14
it does so that tomorrow we can have in Argentina the power with which our
36:19
elders dreamed. Claro Trando tino, a small sacrifice for son today, a
36:25
small sacrifice today for our records to have tomorrow inherit a large, round homeland,
36:31
warm pertin. Trancl Minister, listen to me since I was little,
36:38
I' ve been hearing that nothing from the future needs to be sacrificed.
36:43
The national motto has always been to fuck yourself today to enjoy tomorrow and one
36:49
puts the other. But the future by decision will never be good, I
36:57
told them they can follow it alum and that is not expected online in arroba.
37:00
Compa a thousand nine hundred and sixty- eight Jorge Companuche, economics analyst.
37:04
As I told you before Global Marking and also TMG' s Starget content
37:07
director. Target Market Global. Don Jorge, good afternoon, my friend,
37:12
how Jorge is doing, that the man is rotten to see no, Jorge,
37:21
you hear me, I am not listening to him, but very clear
37:31
is Jorge there we are to see you hear me not good. A ok
37:43
looks like some little problem with the microphone. Well, let' s wish,
37:45
let' s make contact with Jorge. If not, well, we
37:46
' ll have to cut it and call it We' ll see this one
37:52
I don' t know what' s going on. He beats me to
37:55
see you' re there, Jorge, you got the microphone. Well,
38:01
you' ll listen to me, and I have no idea. Well,
38:06
if we haven' t called the phone that' s going to be the
38:08
same to Plan B. Well, I' d say a little run Roone
38:13
in the markets. You probably won' t explain it anymore. Jorge has
38:15
to do with the Middle East issue, the inflation issue, also in the
38:22
United States, and that' s where we' re going to talk.
38:25
If we have time in the closing, just the Middle East, with Marcelo
38:31
Cantel, my international editors of the Diario Clarín, for having one last attempt
38:37
and no more on the phone. Jorge, you listen to me there,
38:42
well, but I don' t listen to you at all. Well,
38:43
let' s call you on the phone. I don' t know what
38:45
' s going on with the zoom, so let' s just sort it
38:51
out by traditional phone. Well, let' s see then review a little
38:57
more up- to- date said Masa' s book. What definition is
38:59
there German Carros, which is the one that is best being provided care is
39:02
mass. That stood out prominently Carlos Germano with us, because, well,
39:07
some say well, we have to wait for the government to have trouble,
39:10
if not get us in. Now in this berengenal keeping a little staged a
39:15
renovation within it is worth redundancy of its space, the renewing front. Well
39:19
his brother highlighted this and we obviously want the great handicap of the opposition.
39:23
The government is that it has no opposition today also that clearly the atomic voice
39:27
represented Milla and four or five months ago difficult to have it. Jorge,
39:30
you listen to me there. Good afternoon, very good afternoon, or you
39:35
' re all right with the whole order, every other horse. Well,
39:38
let' s see the blue jump a little. Obviously, the financiers,
39:43
this has basically to do with the Middle East. One supposes yes, partly
39:46
yes and partly no. I say this because the global market has been falling
39:54
for several weeks now. I would tell you that half- day is simply
40:00
a color note or notice that it is being given more noise than it is
40:05
because the markets are very independent from that situation. At another time, when
40:12
you had started there in early February, with the goings and goings between Ukraine
40:16
and Russia, already the oil was on a rise front every day before what
40:21
was the attack of February twenty- four, you are now with an oil
40:25
that in the week is slightly rising grains in minimum of the week. To
40:35
give you an example, soy is at the minimum of the year. You
40:38
don' t have that point of uncertainty or concern you had at two thousand
40:47
twenty- two. If you have a situation that is already coming, as
40:52
I say to you already moving a couple of weeks ago, which is precisely
40:58
the data of the economy of the United States, that had been very strong
41:02
all employment inflation. And that was what was dynamiteizing the fate of emerging markets
41:07
a little bit, because the expectation of a March cup cut was no longer
41:12
that of June either. And now we can give you yes a little bit
41:19
of reason as to expectations or not. If this is facing a much greater
41:24
escalation in geopolitical strife, it can lead to an aggravation in energy price levels.
41:36
The only reality is that the dollar, the dollar in the world is
41:40
already rising a week ago and that' s why you' re having a
41:45
little impact these days. That is to say, more than the Middle East,
41:52
then the doc that is accompanied a little by the color go up in
41:55
the world and that is why we see the repercussion here in principle, the
42:00
Twitter, in one thousand sixty- eight I pointed out a couple of weeks
42:06
ago that had already begun the process of new cumshot. It would change at
42:10
the regional level, that the markets began a sequence of prices of several months,
42:20
although perhaps years, like the one that happened at the beginning of the
42:24
two thousand seventeen or that had also been gestated at the beginning of the two
42:28
thousand fourteen. On this occasion, due to the situation of emerging markets of
42:31
extreme vulnerability, I think it will be a dent in some government in the
42:37
region. What I mean by this is that this evaluation process, which is
42:42
beginning to take place in emerging markets, will start to provoke a very strong,
42:49
brutal exit of assets from the markets of the region, where Brazil is
42:53
one of the most affected, together with Chile. I say this because because
42:59
it also has to see a correspondence, because it is happening in the last,
43:05
in the last two years, with the other great colossus of emerging markets,
43:07
that is China, China that has been suffering a constant exit precisely from
43:14
investors and that is the red flag, that banner socialism in Latin America is
43:20
where good. Obviously, if we are facing a new dollar raise in the
43:25
world, these countries that already came more after the pandemic will start to suffer.
43:31
In fact, you notice that this week Brazil is the one that is
43:37
suffering the most. It is reaching a devaluation of the real of three percent
43:43
in levels of five with twenty- six reals per dollar, and I believe
43:47
that we will be in the coming weeks before a situation of rise of the
43:53
constant dolan that will also reverberate in Argentina, who I had predicted short-
44:00
term values for the exchange rate in about one thousand two hundred and for the
44:05
thousand two hundred, one thousand two hundred and ten and for the second semester
44:09
in about one thousand five hundred ninety thousand six hundred. That' s why
44:12
I said when Miley took over, the only thing I was gonna find like
44:17
tailwind. They will be the first hundred days of your government where, if
44:22
you don' t see what happens, outside everything you try to devise in
44:28
Argentina will succumb your adjustment program is nothing more or less than leading Argentina to
44:34
the final crisis. Let' s see wait for me to have the adjustment
44:42
program overcomes adjustment of my law is nothing more or less than to lead Argentina
44:45
to the final crisis than to give it the same to have cleaned everything and
44:50
again, or as we tie Miley is doing nothing, absolutely nothing to lay
44:55
the foundations of prosperity. The banner of freedom dance is a freedom of the
45:04
ceos. We do not see that freedom in the daily life of the economy.
45:08
And I say this message is not a political message. I am practically
45:13
a politician and I am in charge of an analysis of the same thing that
45:17
I did at the time with the government of Macri Ques. I pointed out
45:21
that in half of his government he was going to start his team because he
45:23
was going to suffer a shock from China, which was what generated two thousand
45:28
eighteen, two thousand nineteen the evaluation process so far. What Milan did is
45:32
a program of brutal adjustment above what has to be adjusted, because there is
45:37
no kind of contemplation around consumption levels. I' m not making this movie
45:45
for you to watch so you can feel it better. My let pron said
45:50
we were going to have a dollar payback. In fact, you' ve
45:55
had it since October, when I was ruling mass, you had a minimum,
46:01
vital and mobile wage of$ 160. Today is that salary is one
46:06
hundred and ninety- five. There' s a difference. Mauri, in
46:10
October you consumed three hundred and twenty- six milks and today, with that
46:17
salary, which increased fifteen percent in dollars, you consume half. Then forgive
46:22
me too. There is also dollar inflation in Argentina. I see exactly why
46:24
I' m telling you that Miley' s program is the program that'
46:29
s going to succumb to this country. Why, because you' re gonna
46:31
kill the last thing left of the marketing and production chain, because you can
46:37
' t afford those costs. No producer will be able to produce with what
46:44
the inputs are worth in this country. So what my law is brewing,
46:49
I say what I pointed out at the time is a great social, economic
46:54
recipe, to see, but to have a zor. This is a wanted
47:00
effect to see, I say you do a devaluation, that is to say
47:05
to clean in quotation marks, obviously, lower the step of the whole society.
47:07
Two levels, three levels and from there or this is put in your
47:12
reasoning to this government, to my language, what was there is an effect
47:15
to see we will be able, it is a sought effect of its measures,
47:19
because he does not speak well of this, speaks of prosperity, the
47:22
way to lay the foundations as you mention and say that I do not think
47:24
it will happen to him. I agree with you, but I say you
47:28
understand this made an effect sought to later self inherit it and prescribe and leave.
47:32
Or this is one. He doesn' t see it and he takes
47:37
it, let' s say. I believe there are shared issues. I
47:40
say that, in the first instance, it is perfect, that is,
47:45
it is perfectly perpetrated, because I say that so far it is devising from
47:52
its origins a macrie plan by four. In the first instance, in the
47:58
second instance, it does not have any kind of social contemplation, of limitation
48:04
to what makes the precarious levels of consumption of society to its minimum strata.
48:09
So it' s not leaving everything in the free market here, because if
48:15
I put a liter of milk in five lucas, you' re going to
48:20
tell me no. But the five lucas in an exaggeration. Yeah, that
48:22
' s perfectly an exaggeration. But it' s all free, free market.
48:25
Then you can tell me what is the safe conduct or what is the
48:30
bun, depressions, the society, the reality that you come as you said
48:35
well, of situations so we could go to forget about the previous administrations that
48:44
you as Argentine, I notice it in clients. What they are looking for
48:49
is hope, that hope of what comes from a President of court and economic
48:57
profile who supposedly knows about this, of how to get out of a situation
49:04
of extreme vulnerability in Argentina. And perfectly well this one we wait for that
49:08
second semester where things go, they' re going to settle in better conditioning.
49:13
Of course, there is a small caveat in the story you now have
49:17
rates adjusted for inflation A good you will start adjusting the salary every month is
49:22
adjustment for inflation. It is a lie to the consumer, because good income
49:30
is not going to see. We' re going to make up the revenue
49:34
They' re not going to recover. With what the Government says, equals
49:35
may be the same as retired women. That' s not going to be
49:37
recovered or at least it can' t be recovered in great shape. Let
49:39
' s say, of course, you think that when you get the monthly
49:44
inflation rate, it' s a coefficient where there' s a big component.
49:50
I' m not saying make- up, but it' s not
49:52
a component of your own, the component that you get into your pocket,
49:57
that is, when you arrived in December and you were told twenty- five
50:00
percent of inclination. The reality is, give me a product that hasn'
50:06
t gone up less than 100 percent. In the month of December. So,
50:08
when I know a poves that all grew up in a brutal way and
50:13
you get a twenty- five percent number. Or I' ll give you
50:15
an example. In the data of In the data of February of in the
50:22
field of transport pibueno, there was a component of sua of eleven percent,
50:28
that was the whole subject of automotive component, the expenses of motor then,
50:32
and the public transport tickets, going up to one hundred thirty- five hundred
50:38
and fifty percent. I want to know if Marco Labania did a market study
50:45
of how many people a car has in that population, that is, it
50:52
' s a big number thrown into the bowling alley. So, what I
50:54
' m saying is that this inflation data that is supplied and not done by
50:59
this government in all previous governments for the population is a container data, because
51:05
it really fakes what should be provided in terms of information is what raised the
51:09
basic basket. I' m going to train in the basic basket. I
51:13
will have a much more concrete reality of that situation. Or so, notice
51:19
that in December retail prices went up twenty- five percent and fifty- eight
51:22
percent the wholesaler. Okay. So, Jorge bar I want to give you
51:28
don' t think a little more price take out definitions. Now have a
51:30
hand carving, two or three things and concrete answers As you passed, you
51:35
said people are looking for peranza with a President who supposedly knows how to get
51:37
out. How do you know how to get out of this extreme vulnerability what
51:40
is this? I' m supposed to say he doesn' t know about
51:44
economy. Actually, or he' s on his own, in his school,
51:46
well, first- stage play is like an economist, the economic team.
51:52
What he has provided so far is more of the same from the Maxi
51:57
Government. I mean, so far we' ve laid the foundation for you
52:00
financially, arranged, a carri tray, set certain guidelines for a recovery.
52:06
But the reality is that what I have had so far I ask a producer,
52:10
a trader, has not had any basis for sustainability. In fact,
52:16
what you' re having are layoffs pressures, you have a production suspension,
52:22
that is to give you a color data the ICBC after the country. And
52:28
that' s not what the Bank bought. The users were bought by Banco
52:32
Galicia, that' s not a positive fact. Well, he' s
52:37
going out in the region. I think he was coming out of the region
52:39
too, not how. I think he was coming out of the region,
52:44
not just from Argentina, too, but not defending the government almost, but
52:49
not what he didn' t. But that' s fine That goes to
52:51
the part of what I' ve been telling you about you being facing a
52:57
cycle of regional emerging vulnerability, that is, if you go for something.
52:59
It is the reality that you for today. You' re not not having
53:02
you, you' re not having a basis for growth. How you intend
53:08
to have a growth base when you have, as you rightly said, dollar
53:13
inflation, that is, a product. I could give you yesterday I laughed
53:19
I had bought a cell phone in 150 thousand pesos in October with a mass
53:28
with a dollar of one thousand two hundred and today with a dollar of one
53:31
thousand worth four hundred eighty thousand pesos. So, you, today you'
53:35
re having an abnormal inflation situation. This anomalous infasion, that, that dollar
53:42
inflation that you never suffered in the history of Argentina and ends, obviously,
53:47
to erode it. Last one standing why, because I can give you thousands
53:52
of examples. You can say that the field is better and it is relative,
53:57
because it is that this dollar that they liquidate is so far from the
54:01
llar soy, but the inputs that they have to buy to produce is far
54:08
from the three hundred and thirty and that is. What do you think of
54:13
mass management, management is more part of me. I think that first there
54:21
is a lack of awareness like most not most so far, all those who
54:29
have passed have seemed the same do not have specialists from international markets. All
54:35
the crises in Argentina were caused by outsiders and the one that is happening now
54:42
is going to be a further test of what is going to happen. What
54:45
I can tell you about mass management is that what I can, what I
54:50
can criticize is that you can' t do anything to win an election,
54:54
that is, the level of over- expenses, disproportionate and in and in
54:59
some cases expenses I would already say pornographic for what an economy is can'
55:07
t be realized. So ballet all does not work for a country that pretends
55:15
to be moderately stable for a small time so that afterwards it has to suffer.
55:22
What he' s telling you now to reality is that to me then,
55:25
to my leil is already to see. I' m gonna see point
55:31
one. What' s in favor of my law first is a lucky how.
55:38
I could tell you from past history, a past doesn' t condemn
55:43
it to previous ones. Yes, that allows him to give, in a
55:49
way that a margin, that margin for society to give him a lapsa and
55:53
he says well I can take a little longer the issue that is not going
55:57
to happen. This is why I' m telling you this outer self.
56:00
If I' d be with him another time, I could tell you if
56:04
you had to hold on. When Macri got caught, you had two years
56:07
of tailwind, those two years of tailwind. Maybe if I could have maneuvered
56:14
and Argentina could have told you I could have straightened you from ra much faster.
56:22
Today. Not because at that time you were coming from an inflation of
56:27
thirty forty percent, you can handle the pressure you have now, because I
56:30
laugh when they tell me that inflation is going down on the beach slows down
56:35
and when you see interesting prices on the supermarket line they are offers, because
56:42
within two days the high price that I had before returns, then you are
56:46
not having in that position of falling consumption that can allow you a recovery.
56:54
Say well, from here society begins to move better. And when today you
57:00
have thirty- one thirty- five percent of a salary and you have to
57:04
allocate it to services. That used to be six seven percent. Then you
57:09
don' t have much room for the economy to attract. Then what you
57:14
did better than I stayed with you. I have to fire. I ran
57:15
out of time. I have to find out about the show. Thank you
57:17
so much. We' re gonna repeat them again, okay, Dale,
57:21
that' s fine with me. Big hug by ture a paruche financial analyst
57:24
here in plural and market construction. We' re leaving, we' ll
57:29
meet back here tomorrow at 4: 00 p m. We' ll be
57:30
happy for the Wolf. That as always was a correspondent for us in North
57:34
America and before that I' ll get old. Okay. I don'
57:37
t remember us scratching before, that' s to say, if we put
57:40
more lander on Mars I sang it mica. We couldn' t do that.
57:42
Juan Pablo Orlean, Juan Vano, you cantel mi and have Particosoto.
57:45
Thank you, Juan, thank you, Silvia. I' ll see you
57:49
tomorrow at four o' clock.