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Burnham dreams of a Europe that doesn’t exist · John’s Newsletter

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  SPEAKER_00: Good morning,
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  SPEAKER_00: Making sense of the world as we will today
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: with Andy Burnham's 70s era tribute band fallacy is the only way to put it.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: His longing for the 70s would be odd and amusing if it weren't downright dangerous.
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  SPEAKER_00: So we're going to have a look at that in his recent conference speech to the Labour Party.
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  SPEAKER_00: The rest of you make today be the day.
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  SPEAKER_00: And with no further ado, let's go right into Annie Burnham and Europe.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: A couple things to say.
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  SPEAKER_00: First of all, Burnham can give a speech.
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  SPEAKER_00: He wrote his own speech,
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  SPEAKER_00: as to why I admire people who use their own brain when they're doing the writing.
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  SPEAKER_00: He certainly can deliver a speech better than that robot Keir Starmer,
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  SPEAKER_00: though I'm being unfair to robots everywhere.
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  SPEAKER_00: And boy, it does show he can communicate.
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  SPEAKER_00: We can make too much of that in our shallow world, but we can also make too much of that.
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  SPEAKER_00: It matters that you connect in an E.M.
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  SPEAKER_00: Forster-like way with your voters, and Burnham can do that, and I think that's real.
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  SPEAKER_00: You can't really fake that.
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  SPEAKER_00: You know it when you see it.
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  SPEAKER_00: As Justin Potter Stewart defined pornography,
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  SPEAKER_00: I may not be able to define it, but I know it when I see it.
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  SPEAKER_00: The charisma that comes from speaking, you know it when you see it.
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  SPEAKER_00: And although I don't agree with almost anything Burnham said,
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  SPEAKER_00: he's a damn step up on the robot that was Keir Starmer or on robots in general
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  SPEAKER_00: who would be higher again than Starmer.
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  SPEAKER_00: The Labor Party loved it.
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  SPEAKER_00: The new statesmen were hyperventilating the BBC and Newsnight.
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  SPEAKER_00: Couldn't believe it.
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  SPEAKER_00: He was now Abraham Lincoln.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, they overdid it.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: But let's dig in.
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  SPEAKER_00: On what's wrong with this speech?
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: What's rotten in the state of Denmark, to quote Shakespeare?
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: Well, first of all, I'm in good company.
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  SPEAKER_00: I think the two of the leading lights who got this right about what's wrong
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  SPEAKER_00: with Burnham are guys I've actually met in my line of work,
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  SPEAKER_00: Janan Ganesh and Andrew Neil.
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  SPEAKER_00: I came away and I respect both their works a great deal.
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  SPEAKER_00: I came away liking Ganesh and not liking Neil very much.
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  SPEAKER_00: I remember when I met Neil,
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  SPEAKER_00: he was bombastic and arrogant and of a different generation and was demanding things
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  SPEAKER_00: as they were.
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  SPEAKER_00: Though he were Maria Kellis, about to do an opera, an aria.
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  SPEAKER_00: So he has kind of the kind of affect of an opera singer.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I rolled my eyes and just thought, who are you to do this?
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  SPEAKER_00: But if you look back at Andrew's record, he's gotten a lot wrong, but he's gotten a lot right.
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  SPEAKER_00: And he's an old dog who doesn't know many new tricks.
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  SPEAKER_00: But on the other hand, he's hard to fool.
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  SPEAKER_00: And his record is, you know, simply fantastic when I delved into it.
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  SPEAKER_00: And Andrew Neal...
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: It's the nail on the head for the foreign policy aspects of the speech,
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  SPEAKER_00: which I would entirely agree with.
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_00: the only foreign policy in the speech was a desire for closer ties with Europe
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: and what Burnham would lie.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: And what the people around him would like would be to rejoin the EU outright.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's not what he said.
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  SPEAKER_00: Of course,
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  SPEAKER_00: in typical Labour Party faction,
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  SPEAKER_00: they've set up a working group to look at what kind of closer ties do they want.
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  SPEAKER_00: Do they want the Swiss model,
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  SPEAKER_00: the customs union model, the Norway model, or just out and out rejoining?
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  SPEAKER_00: But certainly closer ties with Europe, which of course the Labour Party is a no-brainer.
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  SPEAKER_00: Everybody thinks that.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: And indeed polling has moved more closely to a closer tie with Europe in Britain,
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  SPEAKER_00: mainly because the British governments, That managed to get Brexit done.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: Most of all,
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  SPEAKER_00: Boris Johnson squandering yet another golden chance,
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  SPEAKER_00: the symbol of the man's life,
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: was to free Britain from the shackles of Europe only to not turn it into Singapore,
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: to not take advantage of And for Boris,
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: this is doing what Kerry wanted about the environment and also letting in immigrants
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  SPEAKER_00: to the tune of a million a year, the Boris wave, as it's known.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: So he gathered his hard-won freedom from Dominic Cummings and my friends and then squandered it.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: And that's certainly true.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: And people see that they've had this change and yet nothing has changed.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so they are disillusioned with Brexit.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I don't think that's a big surprise.
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  SPEAKER_00: But Andrew Neill hit the nail on the head in the sense that he says,
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  SPEAKER_00: I don't think any of the people in labor have ever been to Europe recently.
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  SPEAKER_00: That Europe doesn't mean Europe.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I've always felt this when I've been to the UK.
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  SPEAKER_00: When they talk about Europe, it's an abstraction.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's an abstraction.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's not what's really going on in Europe for the last 25 years.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's an idea.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I'll get back to I finally figured out this morning when I was thinking
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  SPEAKER_00: about this at breakfast,
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  SPEAKER_00: why this is and Burnham actually ironically gave me the key in his 70s tribute.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: Because if Burnham stands for anything,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's for a nostalgia for one of the most god-awful periods in British history.
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  SPEAKER_00: The 70s, when the unions ran everything, the country was coming apart at the seams.
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  SPEAKER_00: Economically, they were begging.
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  SPEAKER_00: And somehow Burnham looks back upon this as some sort of odd golden age,
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  SPEAKER_00: while ironically denigrating the
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  SPEAKER_00: I remember saying that to her.
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  SPEAKER_00: For all the mistakes you've made between 1979 and 1990,
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  SPEAKER_00: nobody's talking about IMF bailouts anymore.
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  SPEAKER_00: Was it wrenching to do that?
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: It had to be wrenching.
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  SPEAKER_00: Was it successful?
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  SPEAKER_00: I think history leaves little doubt as to that point.
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  SPEAKER_00: My good friend Nile Gardner, who used to work for Lady Thatcher, is outraged, spluttering.
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  SPEAKER_00: With anger.
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  SPEAKER_00: But you have to take Burnham seriously.
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  SPEAKER_00: He truly misses the 1970s, which is very odd indeed, but kind of gives the game away.
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  SPEAKER_00: So Andrew Neal sees the first piece of the puzzle rightly
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  SPEAKER_00: when he says these guys are, you know, and I, he, He used even my Titanic analogy.
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  SPEAKER_00: I want to say,
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  SPEAKER_00: as you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: I said at first,
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  SPEAKER_00: the problem with Europe is that when you go to these meetings,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's as though you're sitting on board the Titanic and no one's even discussing
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  SPEAKER_00: the iceberg.
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  SPEAKER_00: Likewise for Burnham and Labour.
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  SPEAKER_00: No one's even discussing the problems that lay ahead.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so that's the foreign policy part.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I'll come back to that because that's my forte in a minute.
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  SPEAKER_00: But also to say Janan Ganesh, who I did like very much in getting to meet with him.
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  SPEAKER_00: We hung out at this meeting that we both spoke at.
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  SPEAKER_00: And boy, he came across as every bit as impressive as you might think.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I think he wrote this piece for the Times, I assume, but maybe not.
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  SPEAKER_00: Maybe the FT, but I think the Times.
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  SPEAKER_00: And very thoughtfully lays it out that everything Burnham said,
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  SPEAKER_00: everything Burnham cares about socially,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is what the speech was about, costs money.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: And there's no sign in there of how to increase growth rates.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: Really, he's implicitly saying, let's just manage the decline that we have.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: He talks about good growth versus bad growth.
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  SPEAKER_00: Growth evenly spread geographically.
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  SPEAKER_00: Geographically throughout the UK as if any capitalistic system
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  SPEAKER_00: in history has ever had growth spread geographically evenly throughout a country.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: That's never happened.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: That never will happen because of David Ricardo and other things, but you can't
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: So he wants, again,
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: socialism and some sort of output while grudgingly acknowledging
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  SPEAKER_00: that you need capitalism.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: And he only wants good growth,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is spread evenly throughout the country, rather than bad growth.
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  SPEAKER_00: This is from a country that has a parade of growth.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: When it grows at 2%, and Britain has done better than Europe, which hasn't even grown at 2%.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: Britain's had the odd moment of doing that,
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: and has certainly done marginally better,
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  SPEAKER_00: as Andrew Neil pointed out,
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: than Europe, certainly in the last 10 years and 20 years.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: But marginally better.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: But he's talking about very thin gruel indeed.
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  SPEAKER_00: Very little growth indeed.
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  SPEAKER_00: And yet he's obsessed about, I only want good growth and not bad growth.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: Buddy, you're in no position to say anything about growth at all except,
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: please, please, sir, may I have more?
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: To quote Oliver Twist, may I have more?
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: You don't get to pick and choose what growth you have when your growth rate is 1%.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: And your productivity is a shambles and has been for a generation.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: And so this just shows the utter delusion of labor.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: As Janan Ganesh makes clear,
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: all they want to do is manage decline, a light management of decline.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: And then let's worry about the bus fares that are what I really care about and got
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: into politics to do.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: But you can't have social reform without growth.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: This Blair got right.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: Which Burnham's turning his back on.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: Blair's people under Lord Giddens in the third way at least believed in the market
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: to do the laborish social justice-y things we want.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: We need to grow 2%.
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  SPEAKER_00: We need to embrace the market to have social justice.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: And this has now been given up.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: Let's just manage decline and we want to do social justice.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_00: As Ganesh points out, if you're just managing decline, you cannot do that.
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  SPEAKER_00: It will not work.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: And the 70s fetish for chaos and no growth is a key to what's wrong with
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: the speech domestically.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: But even more,
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: as Andrew Neil pointed out,
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  SPEAKER_00: and as I've said for eons now, 20 years, this doesn't work for Europe.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't mention directly how Europe would give the UK more growth.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: He just said that it would.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's go back to the key to this, his obsession with the 1970s.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: In the 1970s, Europe was booming.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: In the advanced industrial world,
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: Europe was doing the best,
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: certainly in the 60s and up through the oil crisis, the Yom Kippur War of 1973.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: Say 45 or 50 in reality to about 73.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: But the French call it the 30 glorious years from 1945 to 75 when their productivity
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: of Europe was unmatched and when it was booming and when it leads.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now, you gave up sovereignty, you gave up autonomy.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: I'd probably still be against it.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: But an awful lot of people were for it, including large sections of the Tories.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: And Thatcher at one point, Heath certainly, who worshipped Europe all too much.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_00: And this continued when it began to even go on.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: But Burnham is part of this.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: Europe, in his mind,
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: is a place that's vibrant,
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: is a place that's booming,
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: is a place that's growing,
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_00: and inherently people should want to join it so they do better economically.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: And he said that.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: as Andrew Neal said,
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: what planet he's been living on for the last 20 years,
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: because the fetish of missing the last generation,
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: the 70s fetish of missing the last generation,
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: is the key to the delusion that will lead to burnimism and labor failing.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: Because let's just do a quick hop of what's happened this week.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: I've done all the long term numbers about Europe,
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: how in GDP terms,
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: it was the equal of the United States a generation ago,
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_00: and now the major European countries would be poorer than the state of Mississippi.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it has fallen behind by about a third in the last generation.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: And just this week, you see the results.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, let's go around the horn.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: Germany,
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: the economic heart of Europe,
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: has lost its economic heart,
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: the car industry,
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: to China by thinking they would get the better of the Chinese when the Chinese and
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: the car industry have surely gotten the better of them.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: And this is shown in Merz's approval rating,
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: which according to the never unbiased BBC,
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: this is a group of people who said the hijacking yesterday,
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: the terrorist effort of the plane with the Israelis in it and fly Dubai was merely
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_00: an altercation.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I've been to a bar with an altercation.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: That's not what this sounded like.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: Ridiculous that anyone is subsidizing this cosmopolitan left wing drivel.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: Which is now just utter propaganda.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: They jumped the shark a long time ago.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: But even the BBC,
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: which can read poll numbers and occasionally even report on them,
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: mentioned that Merit's approval rating is in Charles Manson,
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: Ted Bundy territory at 13%.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: The lowest percentage ever recorded in politics.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: So the modern German Republic, this is the worst number ever this week by Friedrich Meritz.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: And this is shown in him just being beaten senseless by the AFD
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: and two Eastern German launder,
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: Saxony Anhalt and Being one of them where the AFT got over 40% of the vote,
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: 43, I believe, percent of the vote.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: And then Mecklenburg,
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: Pomerania,
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: where ironically,
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: Merkel, the root of all evil for the establishment came from and be very excited.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: We've just decided today who's going to win the miracle.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: I have a tougher time this year in the staff with the Bismarck,
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: but we'll try to be positive and think of someone.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: The miracle,
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: although contested closely as it always was for worst statesman of the year,
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: we do have a winner.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, Meritz is at 13%.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_00: He lost to the AFD and the two Eastern German Lander.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: And in Berlin, the far left, the unreconstructed Eric Honecker loving communists beat him.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_00: And so the 13% seems fair as Germany continues to not grow in its major industry.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_00: The heart of Germany,
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_00: which is the heart of the economy of Europe, is being decimated by the Chinese.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile...
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: Burnham wants to rejoin this nightmare.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: In France, things are barely better.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: The French establishment are looking at Melenchon.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: Again, my favorite Robespierre monkey.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: It's incredible what's going on there.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: Again, he's trying out for an off-Broadway production of Les Miserables constantly.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_00: But there is, like Robespierre, a certain murderous honesty to him.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: He says things like, well,
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_00: the only way we're going to have a left wing France is to make more Muslims who come
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_00: in voters and some coalition of unreconstructed Muslims and us will lead France to
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_00: a glorious socialistic age.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_00: He's now polling about level with Edouard Philippe,
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_00: the establishment candidate to take on Marine Le Pen,
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_00: who's going to win the first round for the national rally easily.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: And so there are French establishmentarians,
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_00: and I just met some of them,
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: talking about the The real possibility that you have a populist right wing candidate
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_00: and a far left populist candidate running and that Le Pen was the lesser of evils
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_00: for them.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_00: This is the state that France has come to.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: Watch the bond yield in France.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_00: Which is going off the chart because the bond market traders are aware
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_00: that you can't retire at the age of 12,
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: which Melenchon would love to do at being a fetus and retire and play bull for
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: the rest of your life and make this work.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: They're addicted to spending.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_00: They're addicted to non-growth spending year upon year upon year.
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_00: And this just simply can't go on.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: So watch the bond yield there.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_00: And in addition,
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_00: there's an X picture where the mayor of Saint-Denis,
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_00: A far left friend of Melenchon's.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: Saint-Denis is in the Banlieu around France.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's a no-go area for the French police populated by immigrants,
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_00: legal and illegal, second generation immigrants.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: And third-generation immigrants.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: And they're burning schools down.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_00: And the ostensible reason for this is they're not getting enough supplies to the schools.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: So let me get this straight,
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_00: since logic is obviously something they're not teaching at French schools.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: That what you have here is because you don't get enough paper, calculators, desks, etc.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_00: Let's burn the whole building down.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: But the mayor of Saint-Denis is dancing around high-fiving folks
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_00: who are obviously ethnically not native French.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_00: And what are they doing?
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_00: They set fire to the school and then being the idiots of our age that we are,
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_00: they're filming it.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_00: You see them all with their cameras out.
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_00: They're proud of this.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_00: And they're filming it.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: The mayor is laughing and high-fiving them.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: The mayor also is not innately native France, however long he's been here.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_00: He certainly, along with these kids, has not been assimilated.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: How long that's been doesn't matter.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_00: The enemy is within, but that makes it worse, not better.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_00: And seeing the mayor jump around as the flames climb higher,
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_00: this is what Burnham wants to rejoin.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: By the way, Macron...
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: The favorite of every conference circuit,
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: immaculately tailored,
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_00: speaking forcefully,
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_00: former finance background,
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: has been an utter catastrophic failure, as we've said before.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_00: And he's not doing anything to stop this.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: I don't really know that anybody's taking him remotely seriously.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_00: And why should they?
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_00: Because the BBC went on to say, Meritz is at 13.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: If Meritz is in Charles Manson territory,
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: back Macron is at 18%,
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: the lowest number ever for a French president, although I checked that.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: They said that.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: I think Hollande was down into single digits even, another failure, the previous president.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: But he's at 18%, which is in certainly Ted Bundy territory.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_00: So you have total rejection by the people of Europe who know better about Europe
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: than Andy Burnham and the cosmopolitan elite who confidently want to rejoin
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_00: a continent of which they know almost nothing.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_00: Almost nothing.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_00: Better the people of the country who give merits a 13% approval rating, Macron an 18%.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: Sanchez is one on his way out.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: As we've seen in Ceuta, he opened the door hoping desperately to let.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_00: And to try to naturalize as many people as possible to save his worthless,
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: corrupt, inept, economically illiterate socialist party.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_00: And in return,
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_00: you're going to have the People's Party and Vox and some coalition in
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_00: the coming year where there are elections, also Malone.
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_00: So you'll have a center-right establishment populist government in Spain.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_00: You'll have a populist government in Italy.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_00: You'll have a bleeding-out establishment in Germany and a populist government in France.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_00: The people of Europe,
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: at the very minute Burnham is yearning to rejoin Europe of his 70s dreams,
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_00: is utterly rejecting in Patrick Henry podcast form as we have chronicled
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_00: and predicted.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_00: And you come,
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_00: as ever,
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_00: and Andrew Neal's dead right about that and Ganesh's dead right about the economics
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_00: and domestic aspects.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_00: I would add to what they're saying, though, the key question in political risk, which is why?
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_00: Why is this?
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: Why is because of Burnham's fixation with the 1970s.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_00: In his mind,
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: it's a 1970s Europe he's rejoining that is booming,
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: that in terms of productivity is the envy of the world,
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: that has gotten off its knees from the post-war.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_00: This is the mindset Burnham is stuck in.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: This is not some weird little affectation.
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: This explains the man.
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_00: Biography and history explain everything.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: This is, again, a neo-realism out of Hans Morgenthau's view.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_00: Not game theory, but psychologically looking at the leaderships we deal with.
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_00: I think a much more interesting way forward for realism.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: I always have thought that.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_00: And it does explain Burnham Thank you very much, folks.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: Happy to make sense of Burnham and Europe and the world.
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_00: Please do give and we'll talk to you soon.