Transcript

Je Suis Carney · Politix

0:00
SPEAKER_00: Then one way to maybe get courts to rethink this stupid unitary executive idea is
0:07
SPEAKER_00: to send bulldozers to the Supreme Court.
0:10
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
0:11
SPEAKER_00: And just say, all right, you have 30 minutes or we're sending them in.
0:15
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I guess.
0:16
SPEAKER_00: That would be on firmer constitutional footing as far as John Roberts is concerned
0:22
SPEAKER_00: than like having an independent statistical.
0:24
SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
0:24
SPEAKER_00: Sure.
0:25
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
0:25
SPEAKER_00: Bulldoze the Supreme Court.
0:32
SPEAKER_00: Hey everyone, you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
0:35
SPEAKER_00: This week, we are going to talk about our quickening transformation into a banana republic.
0:41
SPEAKER_00: As Donald Trump's political project crumbles,
0:44
SPEAKER_00: he's not looking for ways to get right with the public.
0:47
SPEAKER_00: He's trying to wield power wherever and wherever he can, while he still can.
0:53
SPEAKER_00: And it's causing some problems.
0:55
SPEAKER_00: So we'll look at Trump's political infiltration of the Census Bureau,
0:59
SPEAKER_00: his new trade war with Canada,
1:02
SPEAKER_00: his intervention in the beef industry, and various other abuses.
1:08
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1:16
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1:18
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1:32
SPEAKER_00: Hello and welcome to the Politics Podcast.
1:33
SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boitler.
1:34
SPEAKER_00: I'm Matthew Glacius.
1:37
SPEAKER_00: So we're going to talk about a bunch of stuff,
1:39
SPEAKER_00: but I have us talking about the Canada trade war,
1:43
SPEAKER_00: which is like probably the biggest news story.
1:45
SPEAKER_00: I have us talking about the political infiltration of the Census Bureau,
1:49
SPEAKER_00: which is like a more under the radar, but maybe more like a fateful story.
1:56
SPEAKER_00: And then, you know, the...
1:59
SPEAKER_00: The road Trump is having with cattle farmers and their supporters in Congress over
2:03
SPEAKER_00: the price of beef and what Trump is doing to try to bring it down.
2:08
SPEAKER_00: Do you have any thoughts about what order we should take these in or add them together?
2:11
SPEAKER_00: Well,
2:12
SPEAKER_01: let me tell you,
2:13
SPEAKER_01: the latest news to hit the wires,
2:15
SPEAKER_01: I fired up National Post, which I believe is Canada's bestselling newspaper.
2:20
SPEAKER_00: I thought you were going to say beef.com.
2:23
SPEAKER_01: A center-right paper.
2:24
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
2:25
SPEAKER_01: But very prominent.
2:27
SPEAKER_01: The lead story here is that Trump says the U.S.
2:31
SPEAKER_01: is considering renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America.
2:36
SPEAKER_01: So it seems that we are not getting closer to resolution of the trade war with Canada.
2:45
SPEAKER_01: I think that this is like the most important story that is in the mix here.
2:56
SPEAKER_01: You know,
2:56
SPEAKER_01: it's at this interesting intersection where,
3:03
SPEAKER_01: you know,
3:03
SPEAKER_01: the president's authority to conduct himself as the chief diplomat of
3:10
SPEAKER_01: the United States of America is not really legally contestable.
3:16
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
3:16
SPEAKER_01: Like it's not like an abuse of power to conduct negotiations with foreign countries
3:23
SPEAKER_01: as the president of the United States.
3:24
SPEAKER_01: It's the essence of the job.
3:27
SPEAKER_01: And Trump is really bad at it.
3:31
SPEAKER_01: And this has been a consistent theme of his second administration.
3:37
SPEAKER_01: And we're sort of like going full loop with the renaming of bodies of water.
3:41
SPEAKER_01: And I thought one of the most interesting- Oh, no,
3:43
SPEAKER_00: no, no, no, no, no, no.
3:44
SPEAKER_00: He previewed this.
3:45
SPEAKER_00: He was going to rename the Strait of Hormuz also.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
3:49
SPEAKER_00: Or like,
3:50
SPEAKER_00: I forget what he's going to call it,
3:51
SPEAKER_00: the Strait of America,
3:52
SPEAKER_00: or if he was going to make it like an American waterway or- I mean,
3:55
SPEAKER_01: he did this Gulf of America thing, you know, right at the beginning.
3:59
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, I think it's like important to get that.
4:02
SPEAKER_01: Like, I remember like my message testing friends, they like they ran the numbers on that.
4:08
SPEAKER_01: People were really not into renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America.
4:13
SPEAKER_01: You know, it wasn't important to people because it had no impact on their lives.
4:19
SPEAKER_01: But...
4:20
SPEAKER_01: He started this whole thing with like,
4:23
SPEAKER_01: Canada's going to be the 51st state and referring to Justin Trudeau as governor,
4:28
SPEAKER_01: just like as a gag during the transition, I think.
4:31
SPEAKER_01: There was no...
4:34
SPEAKER_01: But it has genuinely upended Canadian politics.
4:39
SPEAKER_01: It has upended the U.S.-Canada relationship.
4:42
SPEAKER_01: It has really come to a head with these latest trade negotiations.
4:47
SPEAKER_01: The consequences of this breakdown for the Canadian economy are going to be quite bad.
4:54
SPEAKER_01: And they will be bad for the United States to a lesser extent than they will be bad
5:00
SPEAKER_01: for Canada,
5:00
SPEAKER_01: just like the war on Iran has been much worse for the Iranian economy
5:04
SPEAKER_01: than it has been for the American economy.
5:07
SPEAKER_01: But these are negative.
5:08
SPEAKER_01: But the difference is that, like, the American voters have no—
5:36
SPEAKER_01: Interest in these initiatives like this.
5:39
SPEAKER_01: Nobody anywhere is like fired up about how we've got to really stick it to Canada.
5:45
SPEAKER_01: And he has no legs to stand on.
5:48
SPEAKER_01: And I think it's important for American politicians and American media figures,
5:54
SPEAKER_01: et cetera, to communicate this like as clearly as we possibly can to people.
6:01
SPEAKER_01: Canadian stakeholders that like I and I think the American people are with me
6:06
SPEAKER_01: on this are prepared to like completely surrender on all
6:10
SPEAKER_01: of these trade negotiation sticking points.
6:12
SPEAKER_01: If we can get rid of Trump, like they ought to hold the line.
6:17
SPEAKER_01: And, uh, Help Republicans lose.
6:22
SPEAKER_01: And Trump will get completely rolled on this.
6:24
SPEAKER_01: Like nobody cares at all about anything he's trying to achieve.
6:29
SPEAKER_00: You said a couple interesting things there.
6:32
SPEAKER_00: One is that he has no legs to stand on.
6:34
SPEAKER_00: Have you seen the like speculation that the weird bulge he has in the ass
6:39
SPEAKER_00: of his trousers might be an exoskeletal assist device to help him walk straight
6:46
SPEAKER_00: because of how he was dragging his Interesting.
6:50
SPEAKER_01: I assumed it was adult diapers.
7:11
SPEAKER_00: The other thing I want to push on, though,
7:13
SPEAKER_00: is what you said is correct about the head of state role for the president,
7:19
SPEAKER_00: but I want to push on your instinct that there's no abuse of power here,
7:22
SPEAKER_00: or your implication,
7:23
SPEAKER_00: I guess,
7:24
SPEAKER_00: because the president is the head of state,
7:28
SPEAKER_00: and if you have a president who has a naive or childish or narcissistic view
7:36
SPEAKER_00: of American power,
7:38
SPEAKER_00: like doesn't know anything about the alliance system and the trading systems
7:42
SPEAKER_00: that we set up for our advantage and why they work in a kind of soft power way
7:47
SPEAKER_00: and like in a benevolent leadership sort of way.
7:51
SPEAKER_00: And you just think we have all the guns,
7:53
SPEAKER_00: we have all the money,
7:54
SPEAKER_00: so we get to tell people what to do and they better listen or else, right?
7:58
SPEAKER_00: A president can come in with that mindset and can do what Things that are not abuses
8:03
SPEAKER_00: of power to try to manifest that, right?
8:05
SPEAKER_00: Like, hey, we're going to talk about annexing you, right?
8:08
SPEAKER_00: We're going to talk about renaming bodies of water that are named after you, after us.
8:13
SPEAKER_00: And it's like, there's no illegality there.
8:16
SPEAKER_00: There's nothing to sue over.
8:18
SPEAKER_00: There's nothing to impeach over.
8:19
SPEAKER_00: It's just being an asshole, you know?
8:22
SPEAKER_00: But the wielding of tax power, essentially, To accomplish these goals is an abuse of power.
8:33
SPEAKER_00: The Supreme Court has already said he can't do this.
8:35
SPEAKER_00: It was an abuse of power before the Supreme Court ruled.
8:38
SPEAKER_00: The Supreme Court simply confirmed it was an abuse of power.
8:41
SPEAKER_00: And then instead of being like, hey,
8:43
SPEAKER_00: it turns out I'm not allowed to operate in the world this way,
8:45
SPEAKER_00: Trump went back to the well.
8:47
SPEAKER_00: He is now,
8:48
SPEAKER_00: I believe,
8:49
SPEAKER_00: using the tariff authorities inscribed in the Trade Act that gave rise to
8:55
SPEAKER_00: the Smoot-Hawley tariffs that plunged us into the Depression in order to justify
9:00
SPEAKER_00: the same kind of Tariffs that he was imposing before to the same ends, right?
9:05
SPEAKER_00: Like he's just trying to bring other countries to heal.
9:11
SPEAKER_00: And that is why we're in the trade war with Canada.
9:17
SPEAKER_00: Like if he had not decided he wanted to fuss around with our trading arrangement
9:25
SPEAKER_00: with Canada,
9:26
SPEAKER_00: but he did want to be a jerk about them being the 51st state,
9:31
SPEAKER_00: They would have been mad about it.
9:32
SPEAKER_00: They would have been like,
9:32
SPEAKER_00: what the fuck is with you guys,
9:34
SPEAKER_00: like nominating an asshole for president three times, electing him twice, you know.
9:40
SPEAKER_00: But we wouldn't be in this situation.
9:43
SPEAKER_00: It's the abuse of power that has it so that all of Canada is ready
9:50
SPEAKER_00: to experience economic pain in order to impose economic pain on Americans so
9:56
SPEAKER_00: that we turn on Trump.
9:59
SPEAKER_00: That's what happened.
9:59
SPEAKER_01: Sure.
10:00
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
10:00
SPEAKER_01: I mean, yes, I agree with that as far as it goes.
10:03
SPEAKER_01: I just mean to say that there's no like.
10:07
SPEAKER_01: On some level, the genuine powers of the president of the United States are like daunting.
10:16
SPEAKER_01: You know,
10:16
SPEAKER_01: and it's like there will be a kind of state of emergency as long
10:21
SPEAKER_01: as Donald Trump is wielding those powers,
10:24
SPEAKER_01: particularly because the judicial check,
10:27
SPEAKER_01: even when it is functioning as it like sort of is on
10:31
SPEAKER_01: the International Economic Emergency Act,
10:35
SPEAKER_01: is a weak check against this kind of Right.
10:39
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
10:39
SPEAKER_01: the president's legislative authority is quite circumscribed in terms of like,
10:44
SPEAKER_01: can you make permanent policy changes to,
10:49
SPEAKER_01: you know, like the structure of Social Security or something.
10:52
SPEAKER_01: But like the conduct of international relations, you just like you have a lot of tools.
10:57
SPEAKER_01: This things happen in real time.
11:00
SPEAKER_01: It takes a long time for these things to go through checks and stuff.
11:03
SPEAKER_01: And it's like.
11:05
SPEAKER_00: You know, I mean, there's just there's.
11:09
SPEAKER_01: It's a bad situation.
11:10
SPEAKER_00: And
11:12
SPEAKER_01: I think,
11:12
SPEAKER_01: you know,
11:13
SPEAKER_01: and we've seen,
11:14
SPEAKER_01: I mean, look, you know, Susan Collins is behind the eight ball coming in November.
11:21
SPEAKER_01: And she's like saying she doesn't think this is a good idea.
11:25
SPEAKER_01: You know, we shouldn't have this trade war with Canada, et cetera.
11:31
SPEAKER_01: But it's like, there's nothing she can do any more than anybody else can do.
11:37
SPEAKER_01: Other than, like, come foursquare for, like, getting Trump out of power by any means possible.
11:47
SPEAKER_01: And, like, just, like, everybody has to understand that that's the reality of this situation.
11:54
SPEAKER_01: That, like, he is totally...
11:59
SPEAKER_01: Out of control in his comprehension of the world.
12:04
SPEAKER_01: You know, he just like, he really believes.
12:07
SPEAKER_01: This is when he was running casinos in Atlantic City.
12:13
SPEAKER_01: He ran this play on his contractors where they would do work for him.
12:18
SPEAKER_01: And then he would say, oh, you didn't do it well.
12:21
SPEAKER_01: I'm not going to pay you what we agreed on.
12:22
SPEAKER_01: I'm going to pay you like way less than that.
12:24
SPEAKER_01: And they'd say like, fuck you.
12:26
SPEAKER_01: Like, you've got to pay what you owe me.
12:28
SPEAKER_01: And then he would say, well, look, like you could hire a lawyer and sue me.
12:31
SPEAKER_01: But I have lawyers on retainer because this is like a big company.
12:36
SPEAKER_01: And so I'll fight you out and it'll cost you a bunch of money and it'll take
12:40
SPEAKER_01: a long time and maybe you'll win or maybe you'll lose.
12:43
SPEAKER_01: Or we could settle right now for 50 cents on the dollar.
12:46
SPEAKER_01: And he found that in a lot of cases like that worked, you know, it worked for him.
12:51
SPEAKER_01: And supposedly that should do like devastating impact to your reputation
12:56
SPEAKER_01: and make it hard for you to continue in business.
12:58
SPEAKER_01: But he just kept moving on to other things and has been very successful
13:01
SPEAKER_01: with this approach of bullying people and breach of faith.
13:06
SPEAKER_01: And he had some success with it in trade negotiations in his first term,
13:11
SPEAKER_01: but he's like,
13:12
SPEAKER_01: Jump the skids and like the other powers of the world are in a tough situation.
13:20
SPEAKER_01: But like,
13:20
SPEAKER_01: I think the best thing for them to do is what Prime Minister Carney is doing here
13:25
SPEAKER_01: and holding tough and trying to,
13:29
SPEAKER_01: you know,
13:30
SPEAKER_01: be bipartisan within the Canadian political context and like level with people
13:35
SPEAKER_01: that they are going to have to suffer for a bit in order
13:39
SPEAKER_01: to
13:39
SPEAKER_01: preserve their country's You know, independence on the world stage.
13:44
SPEAKER_01: But just that, like, most Americans are on his side.
13:48
SPEAKER_01: And I don't know.
13:50
SPEAKER_01: I don't know what else we can do.
13:51
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I do.
13:52
SPEAKER_01: Maybe I'm communicating that.
13:53
SPEAKER_00: Look, like,
13:55
SPEAKER_00: it would be nice if Susan Collins really did do a full face turn and say, look,
14:00
SPEAKER_00: I voted for Trump's impeachment after the conviction after the insurrection, but...
14:09
SPEAKER_00: Then he mounted a comeback and maybe we decided we were going to look past all that.
14:12
SPEAKER_00: But it's just clear now on the second or third go around that he can't be trusted
14:18
SPEAKER_00: with any power.
14:19
SPEAKER_00: And so he just needs to be out.
14:22
SPEAKER_00: And just like, I will switch parties if I have, whatever the case may be.
14:25
SPEAKER_00: But there is more.
14:29
SPEAKER_00: She has made her peace with it in some obvious way because she has a lot of power
14:34
SPEAKER_00: between nothing and...
14:37
SPEAKER_00: Being a Republican for impeaching and removing him, right?
14:40
SPEAKER_00: She is eager to get appropriations passed with minimal
14:48
SPEAKER_00: conditions, right?
14:49
SPEAKER_00: She's not out there being like, look,
14:52
SPEAKER_00: I'm in the minority in my party,
14:53
SPEAKER_00: but they have to do what I say on these spending bills and we're going to use them
14:58
SPEAKER_00: to check Trump.
14:59
SPEAKER_00: She just tries to get them out of her way.
15:02
SPEAKER_01: No, no, no.
15:02
SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's what I mean, though.
15:04
SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, it's like she is part of the Republican Senate majority.
15:08
SPEAKER_01: She's part of the Judicial Confirmation's conveyor belt.
15:11
SPEAKER_01: She's— But also just like,
15:15
SPEAKER_01: you know,
15:16
SPEAKER_01: members of Congress who've issued like statements
15:19
SPEAKER_01: about Trump's different trade things are like— We could be passing new legislation
15:26
SPEAKER_01: to reduce presidential discretion over this or even just like resolution.
15:31
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
15:32
SPEAKER_01: you can tell the difference between somebody who is trying to distance themselves
15:36
SPEAKER_01: from something and somebody who is working over time to try to stop it.
15:41
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
15:42
SPEAKER_00: And I mean.
15:46
SPEAKER_00: There is also like.
15:48
SPEAKER_00: I don't know what would happen if right now,
15:50
SPEAKER_00: I don't even think Congress is doing anything right now,
15:53
SPEAKER_00: but if there were votes on legislation to stop the trade war,
15:58
SPEAKER_00: like there have been votes to stop the war in Iran,
16:01
SPEAKER_00: what would Republicans, how would they vote on that right now?
16:06
SPEAKER_00: And how would they vote on it next year if Democrats take over Congress?
16:11
SPEAKER_00: It's like there are...
16:17
SPEAKER_00: If you just imagine that impeachment and removal is not actually an option,
16:21
SPEAKER_00: and if you just accept that the Supreme Court is bought in at some level
16:27
SPEAKER_00: to Trump succeeding, to Trump making it through his term.
16:33
SPEAKER_00: It's not just that the judicial system sort of works perfectly.
16:39
SPEAKER_00: It's that it doesn't work at all vis-a-vis someone like Trump,
16:44
SPEAKER_00: but particularly because the justices have picked an approach to jurisprudence
16:50
SPEAKER_00: that lets him govern as a tyrant for long stretches at a time, right?
16:55
SPEAKER_00: It's not just foreign affairs.
16:57
SPEAKER_00: It's not just trade policy.
17:08
SPEAKER_00: Use mail ballots.
17:10
SPEAKER_00: And they're saying, oh, we can't do anything about it until he like implements the policy.
17:15
SPEAKER_00: And I don't think it has to be the case that that's how the judicial system operates.
17:20
SPEAKER_00: Right.
17:20
SPEAKER_00: Like like.
17:22
SPEAKER_00: There can be a line past which something is just so like.
17:25
SPEAKER_00: Sure.
17:26
SPEAKER_00: Right.
17:26
SPEAKER_00: Like where the court could say,
17:27
SPEAKER_00: no, we're going to stop you before you even like finish drafting this order.
17:31
SPEAKER_00: But basically they say, hey,
17:33
SPEAKER_00: whatever you want to say is within your power in an executive order,
17:36
SPEAKER_00: you're going to get several weeks,
17:38
SPEAKER_00: if not several months to just pretend that that's what the law of the land is.
17:43
SPEAKER_00: And and then like by the time we finally rule, there will have been some damage done.
17:49
SPEAKER_01: And and.
17:51
SPEAKER_00: So, like,
17:53
SPEAKER_00: the
17:55
SPEAKER_00: system with Republicans not being willing to do anything and the courts kind
18:00
SPEAKER_00: of allowing him to operate in this way
18:06
SPEAKER_00: create this kind of,
18:10
SPEAKER_00: like,
18:10
SPEAKER_00: I don't think that the Canadians think that this is going
18:14
SPEAKER_00: to be American policy forever or for very long.
18:19
SPEAKER_00: But there's just...
18:23
SPEAKER_00: Like there's no there's there's no mechanism in the system
18:29
SPEAKER_00: until Democrats take power that can that can interrupt it.
18:32
SPEAKER_00: And so they have no choice but
18:33
SPEAKER_00: to treat it like like America is like basically no longer an ally.
18:38
SPEAKER_01: Well, no,
18:38
SPEAKER_01: but I mean,
18:39
SPEAKER_01: I actually think I think it goes a little bit in the other direction,
18:42
SPEAKER_01: right, which is that if so, if you were a Canadian.
18:47
SPEAKER_01: And your view of this was that there was like a strong bipartisan consensus in
18:52
SPEAKER_01: the United States of America that like we need to start treating Canada as like
18:57
SPEAKER_01: a colony to be expropriated.
19:00
SPEAKER_01: Then as a Canadian,
19:01
SPEAKER_01: I think there's like a case for just giving in,
19:07
SPEAKER_01: you know,
19:07
SPEAKER_01: to what Trump is demanding,
19:10
SPEAKER_01: because like we actually are the stronger party in this negotiation, right?
19:14
SPEAKER_01: It's like,
19:15
SPEAKER_01: so it's important,
19:17
SPEAKER_01: like, I think it's better for Democrats if the Canadians stay firm, right?
19:22
SPEAKER_01: Rather than,
19:22
SPEAKER_01: because it'll be a political win for Trump if he succeeds in bullying them
19:27
SPEAKER_00: into submitting.
19:27
SPEAKER_00: What I'm saying is we are outsourcing, checking, and balancing to Canada.
19:30
SPEAKER_01: Yes, yes, yes, exactly.
19:32
SPEAKER_01: But so I think in turn, like, it's important for, like, Canadians to understand.
19:36
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think they know this, but I just, like, you know, hear it from me, whatever.
19:40
SPEAKER_01: That it's like, there's no evidence that anybody in the country...
19:44
SPEAKER_01: Like thinks this is a good course of action other than Donald Trump,
19:49
SPEAKER_01: but he has this like gang of flunkies who are going to go along with it.
19:54
SPEAKER_01: And like fucking J.D.
19:55
SPEAKER_01: Vance at a speed, you know, he went to Maine.
19:59
SPEAKER_01: And where, again, Susan Collins is like nominally not supportive of this course of action.
20:04
SPEAKER_01: And Vance has this rally in Brewer with Paula Page, who's running for the House seat there.
20:09
SPEAKER_01: Collins doesn't go to the rally.
20:12
SPEAKER_01: And Vance at the rally refers to Canada as a state.
20:15
SPEAKER_01: And then ha ha is like, oh, it was a Freudian slip.
20:20
SPEAKER_01: You know, and it's like, this is what Republicans are about now.
20:27
SPEAKER_01: And it's not.
20:29
SPEAKER_01: Something voters like.
20:31
SPEAKER_01: It's not something their voters even care about.
20:34
SPEAKER_01: And it's like,
20:35
SPEAKER_01: if you can beat the Republicans,
20:38
SPEAKER_01: like, there will be a serious effort to roll this back.
20:43
SPEAKER_01: But, like, they've got to be beaten.
20:47
SPEAKER_01: You know,
20:47
SPEAKER_01: both the chuckleheads who attend the Vance rally and the ones who try
20:51
SPEAKER_01: to distance themselves from the Vance rally but are still...
20:55
SPEAKER_01: Going to be voted by 80, 90% of the same people and aligned with them on 90% of stuff.
21:04
SPEAKER_01: And like, I wish,
21:06
SPEAKER_01: you know,
21:10
SPEAKER_01: every Democrat I've seen who spoke about this,
21:13
SPEAKER_01: you know, has been obviously critical of the Trump administration.
21:18
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
21:20
SPEAKER_01: But like, I would like to see them go further, you know?
21:23
SPEAKER_01: So like, like Doug Ford is the premier of Ontario.
21:28
SPEAKER_01: He is a conservative politician, not from Mark Carney's party, but they are aligned on this.
21:36
SPEAKER_01: And Carney has made a big show of doing like a,
21:39
SPEAKER_01: like a Team Canada approach to the negotiation, et cetera, et cetera.
21:43
SPEAKER_01: And, you know,
21:43
SPEAKER_01: I would just like,
21:44
SPEAKER_01: I would love to see Gretchen Whitmer and Kathy Hochul,
21:48
SPEAKER_01: who are governors of the states that neighbor Ontario,
21:52
SPEAKER_01: or frankly,
21:53
SPEAKER_01: Schumer and Jeffries,
21:55
SPEAKER_01: go to Toronto and meet with Premier Ford and talk about how they are on his side
22:04
SPEAKER_01: in this and want to see this brought to a successful conclusion.
22:09
SPEAKER_01: Because it...
22:12
SPEAKER_01: Trade with Canada, like it almost sounds like a joke, like a boring issue.
22:17
SPEAKER_01: But in terms of things that are at the intersection of like high minded,
22:21
SPEAKER_01: but also really do impact people's like jobs and livelihoods in a concrete way.
22:26
SPEAKER_00: Second biggest trading partner, right?
22:27
SPEAKER_00: Like very close to Mexico to be our first.
22:31
SPEAKER_01: I think it was ahead of Mexico.
22:33
SPEAKER_01: But it.
22:34
SPEAKER_01: It's not just like that there's a large volume of trade between the United States
22:38
SPEAKER_01: and Canada the way there is with China,
22:41
SPEAKER_01: but it's very sort of intimate trading relationships.
22:48
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
22:48
SPEAKER_01: the reason Susan Collins was saying this is that a lot of Maine blueberries just go
22:56
SPEAKER_01: to Canadian freezing operations.
23:00
SPEAKER_01: Just like...
23:01
SPEAKER_01: Because the United States and Canada are next to each other and
23:04
SPEAKER_01: because Canada's main population centers are all like at the border,
23:09
SPEAKER_01: there are lots of parts of the United States where like the closest like city is
23:18
SPEAKER_01: in Canada.
23:20
SPEAKER_01: You know,
23:20
SPEAKER_01: it's not like the bulk of the United States
23:23
SPEAKER_01: because our population isn't distributed right up against the northern border.
23:27
SPEAKER_01: But like for a significant minority of Americans,
23:31
SPEAKER_01: I'm just like very close, practical, workaday economic relationships with Canada.
23:38
SPEAKER_01: And to just like blow that up for no reason is like genuinely terrible.
23:44
SPEAKER_01: It's like the egregious aspects of Trump's personality that drive liberals insane,
23:50
SPEAKER_01: but like manifesting in a way that has a like real tangible impact.
23:55
SPEAKER_01: I've been
24:01
SPEAKER_00: wanting Democrats to basically articulate strong bargaining positions
24:07
SPEAKER_00: in public since the beginning of this term about continuing resolutions or
24:12
SPEAKER_00: about how they're going to legislate if they take over the House and Senate in
24:17
SPEAKER_00: the Early next year,
24:20
SPEAKER_00: because I've seen Republicans use this successfully as a way to anchor negotiations
24:26
SPEAKER_00: and discourse in favorable territory.
24:31
SPEAKER_00: It's how John Boehner...
24:33
SPEAKER_00: Like ate Obama's lunch in the first debt ceiling fight.
24:36
SPEAKER_00: It was like,
24:37
SPEAKER_00: he said,
24:37
SPEAKER_00: we're just not going to do any tax increases and a dollar for dollar trade,
24:41
SPEAKER_00: borrowing authority for spending cuts.
24:43
SPEAKER_00: And like, that was his position and it held, you know?
24:47
SPEAKER_00: And, and I think that like,
24:49
SPEAKER_00: that is a,
24:50
SPEAKER_00: especially against somebody like Trump,
24:52
SPEAKER_00: who's, I guess, whole quote unquote success in life has come from like,
24:59
SPEAKER_00: Playing games with bargaining positions,
25:02
SPEAKER_00: just to be like,
25:03
SPEAKER_00: this is our position,
25:04
SPEAKER_00: we're holding firm and you're not going to bully us out of it,
25:06
SPEAKER_00: is a way to kind of, to keep, to like limit his ability to maneuver.
25:12
SPEAKER_00: But I think that they could kind of take what I've been talking about and apply it
25:18
SPEAKER_00: to these situations like with the trade war in Canada where they're just kind
25:24
SPEAKER_00: of like openly brainstorming about what it's going to take For a new Congress
25:29
SPEAKER_00: to make the situation tolerable for the next two years, right?
25:34
SPEAKER_00: Republicans aren't going to provide the votes to remove him from office,
25:37
SPEAKER_00: so he needs to be straightjacketed.
25:39
SPEAKER_00: And so, like, you could imagine a War Powers Act, but for trade wars, right?
25:47
SPEAKER_00: Like,
25:47
SPEAKER_00: that basically gives Congress the power to end a trade war that has no support basis
25:54
SPEAKER_00: in the United States and has thin, if any...
25:58
SPEAKER_00: Um, legal justification.
25:59
SPEAKER_00: Right.
26:00
SPEAKER_00: And like,
26:00
SPEAKER_00: and like similarly, if, if,
26:02
SPEAKER_00: if the Supreme court,
26:02
SPEAKER_00: like I think that there need to be huge reforms to the Supreme court,
26:05
SPEAKER_00: but if the Supreme court is going to assert,
26:08
SPEAKER_00: we have a thing,
26:08
SPEAKER_00: it's called the major questions doctrine,
26:10
SPEAKER_00: and now you're going to have to live with it.
26:11
SPEAKER_00: And it's like,
26:12
SPEAKER_00: if you try to do anything, um,
26:14
SPEAKER_00: from the executive branch that, um,
26:17
SPEAKER_00: That looks to us like new law,
26:20
SPEAKER_00: then we are going to use the largeness of it as a basis for saying you can't do it.
26:25
SPEAKER_00: If that's what they're going to say,
26:27
SPEAKER_00: then Congress should say,
26:28
SPEAKER_00: okay, well, if that's the case, then you need to use that authority.
26:36
SPEAKER_00: You can't let major questions loom for two years
26:41
SPEAKER_01: before you
26:42
SPEAKER_00: say, actually, that was illegal.
26:43
SPEAKER_00: You have to come in and say, hey, that's a major question.
26:47
SPEAKER_00: Like maybe it's maybe maybe you're going to prevail,
26:49
SPEAKER_00: but it can't be like in effect the law until we get around to it.
26:55
SPEAKER_00: Right.
26:55
SPEAKER_00: But those things don't go together.
26:57
SPEAKER_00: And so we're going to require you,
26:59
SPEAKER_00: the Supreme Court,
27:00
SPEAKER_00: to actually like put your money where your mouth is on these on these issues.
27:04
SPEAKER_00: And like if you did both of those two things, the trade war would go away.
27:08
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
27:08
SPEAKER_00: Like it just wouldn't.
27:10
SPEAKER_01: No, no.
27:10
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think.
27:13
SPEAKER_00: But they have to say it.
27:14
SPEAKER_00: They have to say, like, we are going to reassert control over the situation in these ways.
27:19
SPEAKER_00: And the only way Trump is going to prevail and continue to wage this illegal
27:25
SPEAKER_00: and stupid trade war is if Republicans in Congress say they're going to kill
27:30
SPEAKER_00: the legislation, right?
27:31
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I know.
27:34
SPEAKER_00: Say it now so that they have to go campaign on,
27:36
SPEAKER_00: like, hey, we're going to continue the trade war into next year.
27:40
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
27:41
SPEAKER_01: No, I mean, I think that that's right.
27:43
SPEAKER_01: But also just,
27:43
SPEAKER_01: you know,
27:45
SPEAKER_01: there's this kind of ricocheting around about like affordability,
27:51
SPEAKER_01: you know,
27:51
SPEAKER_01: as an issue and,
27:53
SPEAKER_01: you know,
27:53
SPEAKER_01: is clearly very important to people,
27:55
SPEAKER_01: but also,
27:57
SPEAKER_01: you know,
27:57
SPEAKER_01: wonks sometimes like struggle to come up with like ideas that,
28:02
SPEAKER_01: you know, will really...
28:05
SPEAKER_01: Deliver like fast relief on prices and just saying like the Democrats will push for
28:10
SPEAKER_01: a unilateral end to these trade wars is like the single most concrete,
28:18
SPEAKER_01: fast acting thing you can do to bring the price of anything down.
28:23
SPEAKER_01: Now, you know,
28:24
SPEAKER_01: the aggregate scale of the impact,
28:26
SPEAKER_01: like who's to say, but like the direction, the sign is totally unambiguous.
28:33
SPEAKER_01: So can you take a break and talk about beef?
28:37
SPEAKER_00: Because- Well, I mean,
28:39
SPEAKER_00: don't you just want to say like Trump is trying to actually bring the price
28:44
SPEAKER_00: of beef down?
28:45
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no.
28:45
SPEAKER_01: And I mean, this is like, I think like a weird blunder by Democrats on the beef front.
28:52
SPEAKER_00: Okay, I want to get to it,
28:53
SPEAKER_00: but I do want to say one more thing before we take the break about,
28:56
SPEAKER_00: because we haven't really talked about the specifics of it.
28:58
SPEAKER_00: Like why the negotiation fell apart,
29:02
SPEAKER_00: why Trump is now going to try to impose these tariffs on Canada,
29:07
SPEAKER_00: and why he thinks this is a winning maneuver.
29:10
SPEAKER_00: And like you kind of got at the psychology,
29:13
SPEAKER_00: like he's a sick degenerate person,
29:16
SPEAKER_00: and then he used his sick degenerate Tactics to make a lot of money in
29:22
SPEAKER_00: the private sector by bullying people, essentially.
29:25
SPEAKER_00: And he's trying to bring that to foreign affairs without having any human touch
29:32
SPEAKER_00: or appreciation for how people will willingly endure hardship in order
29:41
SPEAKER_00: to vindicate their own dignity, right?
29:44
SPEAKER_00: And not be pushed around.
29:47
SPEAKER_00: People sleep better knowing that they stood up for themselves.
29:50
SPEAKER_00: And he doesn't process that, right?
29:53
SPEAKER_00: But he should at this point have people around him who are like, you can't actually...
29:59
SPEAKER_00: Treat other countries this way because they will then develop the will to resist you.
30:03
SPEAKER_00: And you have not built up the will to pursue the fight in the first place at home.
30:08
SPEAKER_00: And that's going to create an imbalance that we're going to be on the losing side of.
30:12
SPEAKER_00: And over time, as in Iran, as probably in this case, we're going to lose, right?
30:19
SPEAKER_00: And like,
30:20
SPEAKER_00: instead,
30:21
SPEAKER_00: it's like the people around him are,
30:26
SPEAKER_00: I guess, like,
30:28
SPEAKER_00: Because they want to keep that,
30:29
SPEAKER_00: like, they know better, but they're helping Trump along into these losing fights.
30:35
SPEAKER_00: And it, like, makes me wonder, like, what is motivating them?
30:42
SPEAKER_00: Because I don't think pure sycophancy really answers the question.
30:45
SPEAKER_00: And, like,
30:45
SPEAKER_00: when I was reading, like,
30:47
SPEAKER_00: the New York Times deep dive into how the negotiations fell apart,
30:51
SPEAKER_00: like, Howard Lutnick ends up at the center of it.
30:54
SPEAKER_00: He ends up at the center of a lot of...
30:57
SPEAKER_00: The administration's nonsense.
30:59
SPEAKER_00: And then you find out that he's like.
31:03
SPEAKER_00: He's getting his beak wet in some way or another, and I am wondering if like.
31:10
SPEAKER_00: Do you think direct corruption within the administration is like the.
31:17
SPEAKER_00: The decisive factor here where they know this is a loser on the politics
31:21
SPEAKER_00: and they know that Trump is like a little bit too addled of a person to see that.
31:27
SPEAKER_00: But instead of trying to stop him,
31:29
SPEAKER_00: they're going to go along with it because they can make money.
31:34
SPEAKER_01: Well, I don't know.
31:34
SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, the thing that we see.
31:39
SPEAKER_00: Specifically, I'm thinking like we're going to like there's one of the sticking points was this.
31:45
SPEAKER_00: There's protections in Canada for French language movies and music and things like
31:51
SPEAKER_00: that so that they get surfaced on streaming services and stuff like that.
31:55
SPEAKER_00: And like you were telling me yesterday,
31:56
SPEAKER_00: this has been a bone of contention,
31:58
SPEAKER_00: but a small one going back to the- Right, so this is what I think-
32:05
SPEAKER_00: But just as with Iran,
32:06
SPEAKER_00: no other president was like, hey,
32:08
SPEAKER_00: we're going to get tricked into using this as a basis for blowing up
32:12
SPEAKER_00: the US-Canada relationship because it's not worth it.
32:16
SPEAKER_00: But Trump got tricked into the Iran war and Trump seems to have gotten tricked
32:22
SPEAKER_00: into this trade war over something that's really unimportant.
32:26
SPEAKER_00: And- I feel like someone's making money on it.
32:30
SPEAKER_01: Right, so the specific thing that's at issue here,
32:32
SPEAKER_01: Canada has long had a set of rules that are called Canadian content rules.
32:41
SPEAKER_01: Canadians call it CanCon.
32:43
SPEAKER_01: And it gives sort of preference to Canadian-made cultural products
32:49
SPEAKER_01: on Canadian television and terrestrial radio.
32:53
SPEAKER_01: And it gets funny because things get like,
32:57
SPEAKER_01: There's like multiple creative people like involved in the production of something.
33:02
SPEAKER_01: So like how Canadian something is can vary.
33:05
SPEAKER_01: So like an Alanis Morissette song, right?
33:08
SPEAKER_01: Like is Canadian,
33:10
SPEAKER_01: but like it's,
33:10
SPEAKER_01: I think like more Canadian if it's a song about hockey or something,
33:14
SPEAKER_01: you know, this comes up a lot in movie and television.
33:17
SPEAKER_01: Anyway, Hollywood's official position has always been that this is bad.
33:24
SPEAKER_01: And the American government's official position.
33:27
SPEAKER_01: Going back,
33:27
SPEAKER_01: there was a U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement that was signed,
33:31
SPEAKER_01: and then there was NAFTA,
33:33
SPEAKER_01: and then there was Trans-Pacific Partnership that was going to include Canada.
33:37
SPEAKER_01: It has always, always, always been the case.
33:39
SPEAKER_01: The way the U.S.
33:39
SPEAKER_01: Trade Representative's Office works is they like take incoming
33:44
SPEAKER_01: from various like American corporate lobbyists and they're like,
33:48
SPEAKER_01: give us your wish list in these negotiations.
33:50
SPEAKER_01: And Hollywood always says, we want you to get rid of the chaos.
33:55
SPEAKER_01: And the USTR always looks at it and they're like,
33:58
SPEAKER_01: yes, this does violate our concept of free trade.
34:03
SPEAKER_01: We have an open market to Canadian content in the United States.
34:07
SPEAKER_01: We believe the Canadian market should also be open on the same terms.
34:13
SPEAKER_01: But then they tell them, guys, this is not going to fly.
34:18
SPEAKER_01: It cuts to the core of Canadian national identity and it's not important.
34:24
SPEAKER_01: We're going to negotiate about auto parts.
34:27
SPEAKER_01: We're going to negotiate about agricultural products.
34:29
SPEAKER_01: We're going to negotiate about energy.
34:32
SPEAKER_01: But who fucking cares whose songs play on Canadian radio?
34:37
SPEAKER_01: So we now update to the internet era
34:41
SPEAKER_01: and traditional CanCon legislation does not like apply in a super obvious way to
34:47
SPEAKER_01: a streaming service.
34:49
SPEAKER_01: So Canada passed a law that's going to compel streaming platforms
34:53
SPEAKER_01: to like put Canadian content and especially Francophone Canadian content like in
34:59
SPEAKER_01: a more prominent place, you know, on the whatever.
35:04
SPEAKER_01: And, you know,
35:06
SPEAKER_01: understandably,
35:07
SPEAKER_01: like Netflix and Amazon and their competitors, like they don't like this.
35:12
SPEAKER_01: They don't want to comply with this rule.
35:14
SPEAKER_01: They want to just set their algorithms to maximize engagement the same way they do everywhere.
35:19
SPEAKER_01: But they convinced the Trump administration to like really negotiate hard
35:24
SPEAKER_01: on this rather than get the normal kind of like pat on the head.
35:29
SPEAKER_01: Like we're going to talk about things that we care about.
35:32
SPEAKER_00: Did the algorithm convince Jeff Bezos to make the Melania documentary?
35:35
SPEAKER_00: Is that how that worked?
35:36
SPEAKER_00: Was that just pure business?
35:39
SPEAKER_01: So then, you know, the question is like, why?
35:42
SPEAKER_01: Like, why?
35:45
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, it'll be interesting to see further reporting about this.
35:49
SPEAKER_01: Like, is this just the Trump administration being stupid and, like,
35:53
SPEAKER_01: saying yes to a lobbying request
35:55
SPEAKER_01: that other American administrations have been downplaying?
35:58
SPEAKER_01: There's some suggestion in this piece by Matina Steves-Grindef that,
36:04
SPEAKER_01: like, the U.S. trade representative kind of, like, had a handle on this stuff.
36:10
SPEAKER_01: And then Lutnik and others, like, swept in and, like, Blew up his own negotiating strategy.
36:17
SPEAKER_01: You have other people from the Trump administration who are like denying that this was the case.
36:22
SPEAKER_01: But like Carney says that it's true.
36:25
SPEAKER_01: Mark Carney, as far as I know, is not a huge liar in the way that Donald Trump is.
36:31
SPEAKER_00: And Lutnick too.
36:32
SPEAKER_00: And like, I don't think Mark Carney like makes trades on the basis
36:36
SPEAKER_00: of how negotiations are faring.
36:38
SPEAKER_00: And so, yeah, like my two suspicions are that there was...
36:42
SPEAKER_00: Illicit trading and also that like the Ellisons or whoever, yes,
36:48
SPEAKER_00: like got into Trump and Lutnick's ear,
36:50
SPEAKER_00: but also,
36:51
SPEAKER_00: you know,
36:52
SPEAKER_00: like there was like a,
36:58
SPEAKER_00: you know, like an oligarchy element to why this happened in the way it did.
37:02
SPEAKER_00: And like,
37:02
SPEAKER_00: even just listening to you talk,
37:03
SPEAKER_00: like what would happen if,
37:06
SPEAKER_00: like have the people at the streaming services contemplated what would happen?
37:15
SPEAKER_00: They worked their will and ran roughshod over Francophone Canadians.
37:22
SPEAKER_00: Do they really think that it would hurt their business?
37:24
SPEAKER_00: And if so, how much?
37:25
SPEAKER_00: Because...
37:27
SPEAKER_00: If this is an issue that's near and dear enough to their hearts
37:31
SPEAKER_00: to like maybe imperil the Canadian Union,
37:34
SPEAKER_00: like wouldn't they maybe boycott the services and like you just lose more customers?
37:38
SPEAKER_01: No, I mean, it's just, it's economically trivial.
37:42
SPEAKER_01: And like,
37:42
SPEAKER_01: I can't,
37:44
SPEAKER_01: you know, I mean, look,
37:45
SPEAKER_01: we are not talking about data centers this week,
37:49
SPEAKER_01: but like clearly Donald Trump is like,
37:55
SPEAKER_01: Over leveraged on the American big tech industry, right?
38:00
SPEAKER_01: How much of that is like his personal financial wheeling dealings?
38:05
SPEAKER_01: How much of it is like Jared Kushner?
38:07
SPEAKER_01: How much of it is whatever deal he made?
38:13
SPEAKER_01: How much of it is just that like the read,
38:16
SPEAKER_01: like people are really mad about the economy,
38:19
SPEAKER_01: but the stock market is doing really, really well.
38:21
SPEAKER_01: So he's just completely mind melded with like magnificent seven tech stocks.
38:26
SPEAKER_01: Like, I don't know.
38:27
SPEAKER_01: It would be fascinating to see more reporting on this.
38:30
SPEAKER_01: I just, I cannot imagine any prior set of American trade authorities deciding
38:38
SPEAKER_01: that this Third tier ask by tech companies is like worth a serious fight over
38:46
SPEAKER_01: as opposed to say like the Trump administration is also championing big tech
38:52
SPEAKER_01: in this fight with the European Union over some kind of digital services tax.
38:57
SPEAKER_01: And I think that there are That's the kind of issue
39:02
SPEAKER_01: where most American administrations would have gone to bat for the tech industry
39:08
SPEAKER_01: because it involves hundreds of billions of dollars of actual revenue
39:13
SPEAKER_01: and also like...
39:16
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
39:17
SPEAKER_01: You know,
39:17
SPEAKER_01: it's like,
39:18
SPEAKER_01: sure, like Europe wants to raise, create a tax that only American companies pay.
39:22
SPEAKER_01: And like, I can see why they want to do that.
39:25
SPEAKER_01: But also like, whatever, you know, like, fuck you.
39:29
SPEAKER_01: This is for better or worse,
39:31
SPEAKER_01: like the terms of Canada existing as a country are that Canada as
39:36
SPEAKER_01: a whole will protect the integrity of the Francophone minority.
39:41
SPEAKER_01: Like the country will not exist if they...
39:46
SPEAKER_01: Give in on this.
39:47
SPEAKER_01: And it's paired with all the 51st state stuff,
39:51
SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
39:52
SPEAKER_01: means that like in Canada, they treat all of this as like a genuine threat.
39:58
SPEAKER_01: Here, the best editorial in the Globe and Mail is a free Canada is worth the sacrifice.
40:05
SPEAKER_01: Trump's thuggishness has made clear that the stakes are no longer just trade,
40:09
SPEAKER_01: but Canada's survival is an independent country.
40:12
SPEAKER_01: I think to a lot of Americans,
40:14
SPEAKER_01: like that sounds bombastic,
40:16
SPEAKER_01: but like it is genuinely how like Canadian elites perceive this situation.
40:25
SPEAKER_01: And yeah.
40:26
SPEAKER_01: He's bitten off more than he can chew.
40:29
SPEAKER_01: But I think it is helpful.
40:31
SPEAKER_01: It would be helpful for Democrats to make as clear as possible that like,
40:38
SPEAKER_01: I said this yesterday and it was,
40:40
SPEAKER_01: I think, received wrongly by some Canadian commentators.
40:44
SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying like, dear Canada, please don't blame me.
40:47
SPEAKER_01: I didn't do this.
40:48
SPEAKER_01: I'm saying that like Democrats need to convey to Canadians that like, This is Trump's thing.
40:55
SPEAKER_01: And that if they obtain more political power, they will work to reverse it.
41:01
SPEAKER_01: Because there is nobody in America who wants to crush Canadians' sovereignty.
41:08
SPEAKER_01: It's just not a real thing.
41:11
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
41:12
SPEAKER_00: I mean, we're not going to be able to get to it on this episode,
41:15
SPEAKER_00: but the other piece of this that helped blow things up is that Trump wants—
41:20
SPEAKER_00: The authority to dictate Canadian tariffs, I think, on other countries.
41:24
SPEAKER_00: Right.
41:24
SPEAKER_00: So they really are trying to wield gubernatorial power.
41:30
SPEAKER_01: No, well, here's why.
41:31
SPEAKER_01: I want to go after the break and then I want to complain about protectionist Democrats.
41:35
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
41:36
SPEAKER_00: If you want to hear us complain about protectionist Democrats and the price of beef
41:41
SPEAKER_00: and talk about the Census Bureau and maybe some other stuff,
41:46
SPEAKER_00: go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.