Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Great Scots | NBA Finals & MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/13/26

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Saturday BEST BETS | Great Scots | NBA Finals & MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/13/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chips, black coffee on the felt.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something? Ne somebody for show. Put
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: No hold on, hold on nothing nice not no.
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Now, what's up? Everybody?
• 1:29
  Speaker 5: It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports for Saturday,
• 1:34
  Speaker 5: June thirteenth, Bad day on the on the show yesterday,
• 1:39
  Speaker 5: neither game was anywhere close to going under the total.
• 1:43
  Speaker 5: Spencer Strider was awful in the other game. I don't
• 1:47
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what happened in the other game.
• 1:48
  Speaker 5: I think who's pitching for the Yankees weathers? Yet he
• 1:52
  Speaker 5: did not weather the mild storm that is the Toronto
• 1:57
  Speaker 5: Blue Jays offense. I don't know what else to tell you.
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: I'm done with even talking about it. We're gonna move
• 2:03
  Speaker 5: on to today. I'm gonna give out two baseball plays.
• 2:05
  Speaker 5: That's what I have today. Hopefully we get back on track.
• 2:09
  Speaker 5: It's been a good baseball season so far overall, so
• 2:12
  Speaker 5: this better just be a road bomb. By mean, it
• 2:15
  Speaker 5: happens in this game, you know, let's just get to
• 2:20
  Speaker 5: it whatever.
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: Hopefully we can get through the show.
• 2:24
  Speaker 5: We have afternoon baseball because it's Saturday, although Saturday we've
• 2:28
  Speaker 5: had more evening baseball.
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: It seems recently.
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: Where I'm used to it all being like afternoon for
• 2:34
  Speaker 5: a while, but now it kind of is. There are
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: a few evening games, but a lot of afternoon feels
• 2:39
  Speaker 5: like old times. Saint Louis at Minnesota does the first game.
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: Minnesota won the game yesterday nine to eight in a
• 2:47
  Speaker 5: very high scoring affair, and neither of these teams have
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: very good bullpens. In fact, Minnesota's bullpen is terrible. Although
• 2:56
  Speaker 5: Joe Ryan pitched that game and he wasn't that bad
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: in the game. I think a lot of the run
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: came home later in the game, but yeah, I don't
• 3:03
  Speaker 5: know what happened.
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: Both bullpens were really bad.
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: Minnesota used five guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis used three. So Saint Louis.
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: Does have the better and more rested bullpen here, so
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis does have a bullpen advantage.
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: They are where are they at?
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: They're eighteenth right now in bullpens, they're a pretty mediocre
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: bullpen really. Minnesota twenty ninth and they have the second
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: worst ERA bullpen wise as well. This is a very
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: bad Minnesota bullpen. Saint Louis is the better offense at fifteenth.
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: This is based on ops throughout the season so far.
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: Minnesota is seventeenth, so they're not that far behind. I
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: arranged the bullpen bullpen stats by Whip by the way.
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: Matthew Lebertrre is pitching this game for Saint Louis. He's
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: not very good. Four point four eighty array, one point
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: five to one. Whip is quite bad. Can't put one
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: and a half guys on base man. He's been slightly
• 4:02
  Speaker 5: better on the road four point three to three. Rodyerra
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: still don't think I would trust him. His last outing
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: against the Reds, which was at home, does not look good.
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: Three walks and four and a third innings. Kind of
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: a red flag there, although he I guess kind of
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: had to stay out there because there were some errors
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: going on in the field behind him. Overall, his numbers
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: are just not very good though two hitable more hits
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: than the innings pitched by quite a bit, walk numbers,
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: high strike cut rate is not too high. Not a
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: whole lot to like with him here, other than the
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: fact that Minnesota does not have that much experience against him,
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: and when they have faced and they haven't done very well.
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: They have six guys who have faced him fifteen at bats.
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: The only extra RaSE hit is a double from Bell
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: Josh Bell. Two hundred batting average five to seventeen oh
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: ps overall, three one strike out walk ratio labratory. This
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: may not be the worst matchup for him, so I'll
• 4:56
  Speaker 5: give him that. It's possible he pitches alright here.
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's all possible.
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: But you know, Connor Prelip, the rookie pitching for the
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: Twins here. He started out looking pretty good and then
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: he went into either a funk or maybe just because
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: I don't know if it was because bad or started
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: figuring him out, because I don't think he faced that
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: many guys or that many lineups yet for the second time.
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: But he's got a five point one to five VR
• 5:21
  Speaker 5: now one point three to three whip that's not great.
• 5:24
  Speaker 5: Although I think he's a decent pitcher. I think he's
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: got talent. He is better at home three point seven
• 5:29
  Speaker 5: to six homey Ra looks like he's somewhat getting back
• 5:34
  Speaker 5: to pitching well two starts this month, fourteen to three
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk raceio on ten to third innings. That is
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: pretty good. So he looks like he's kind of rounding
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: back into form a little bit here, although he got
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: pulled before the five inning mark against Kansas City, and
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: I'm not sure why in his last autum because his
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: pitch count wasn't that high, so I don't know. Maybe
• 5:54
  Speaker 5: they're being really careful with him because he's young.
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: His overall numbers.
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: Don't really look too bad, though his hit rate is
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: pretty good, is walk rate is a bit too high,
• 6:03
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate is high, and he's facing a Saint Louis
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: offense that has never faced him before. I think pre
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: Lip might actually do okay here. I probably prefer.
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: Him over Libratore in this one.
• 6:16
  Speaker 5: That's probably what my opinion would be in this game
• 6:18
  Speaker 5: would be Minnesota first five. I think that makes sense
• 6:23
  Speaker 5: to me because I would not want their bullpen obviously,
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: seventy three percent of the tickets, seventy one percent of
• 6:28
  Speaker 5: the cash on Saint Louis. Public is coming in on
• 6:31
  Speaker 5: the pitcher that they've heard of, and or just the
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: fact that Saint Louis has the better record. But there's
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: a reason why Minnesota is a slight favorite here.
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 6:40
  Speaker 5: The oddsmakers continue to tell you that this Saint Louis
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: team is not what their record might lead you to believe.
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: They're not really that good. But again, Minnesota's bullpen is horrible.
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: They're horrible.
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I would look first five Minnesota. I think
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: that probably makes the most sense in this game. Money's
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: coming in on the over in that game.
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: For what that's worth.
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: It's eight and a half is the total in that game.
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: If you're gonna go over full game makes a lot
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: of sense because you want these bullpens involved. If you're
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: gonna try to go over. There might be some arguments
• 7:15
  Speaker 5: that the first five could go under, though, So that's
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: where you know, I don't Usually I don't want to
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: play total when everything is kind of in conflict like that,
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: you know, so or when it is if it's an
• 7:26
  Speaker 5: under uh with the starting pitchers, And sometimes I will
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: go first five under. That might be if you did
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: play the total, that probably would actually be my lean
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: in this one, first five under. But I think the
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: better approach is Minnesota first five money line.
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: Charles, what's up? Thanks for hanging out, Gerald, what's up? What?
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: What are we talking about? Hurricane? I don't know what
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: we're talking about. There was no hockey game.
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: Last night, all right? New York Yankees and Toronto. Toronto
• 7:59
  Speaker 5: go the win yesterday in a much higher scoring game
• 8:02
  Speaker 5: than expected, eight to five. I don't know what to
• 8:07
  Speaker 5: tell you about that. But whatever, Oh is that a
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: Weather's joke that you were making there? I have no idea, dude, Weathers,
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't know whatever. He did not help
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: us in that one at all. I'm I'm at least
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: happy the Yankees loss, But that's the only thing I
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: could really be happy about. Yankees used four relief pitchers
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: in that game. Toronto used a bunch they used. Actually
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: that looks like four as well. My stroke brain can't
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: look at these grids anymore and count their number rows. Man,
• 8:38
  Speaker 5: it's a fucked up thing. Yankees have the slightly better bullpen.
• 8:44
  Speaker 5: I thought, well, they have a better bullpen er Ray
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: the ranked thirteenth and bullpen Toronto's tenth. Yankees have a
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: better bullpen e Ray, but a worse bullpen whip. Yankees
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: have the better offense, obviously, there's no question about that.
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: They're number two, although Aaron Judge remains sidelined or well, what.
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: Do you call it?
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: What do you call it in baseball? Because there aren't sidelines?
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: I don't know, but he's out. I don't know if
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: and when he's even coming back. Toronto is a twenty
• 9:12
  Speaker 5: second in offense. Kim Schlittler is pitching for the Yankees here.
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: This looks like a pretty good pitching matchup here, with
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: two good pitchers in this one. Schlittler obviously has been
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: really good one point eight to seventy Ray point eighty
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: seven whip. He's been really good on the road one
• 9:29
  Speaker 5: point zero nine Roady Ray. He had one questionable start
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: recently against Cleveland, but even that wasn't even as bad
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: as it looked. He's been really good otherwise, three or
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: fewer earned runs in every other start this season. High
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate, very low hit rate, low walk rate. There's
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: really nothing to even poke at here except that his
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: numbers believe it or not are actually not good against Toronto.
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: In fifty nine at bats. This is a pretty big
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: sample size. Toronto has a three third nine average against him.
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: Seven to forty seven ohps is not that high though,
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: eight five strike out walk ratio, but generally Toronto's hit
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: him for a lot of contact. Dude, they don't have
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: a lot of power hitting against him, but that's still
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: a very high batting average they have against him in
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: a very high amount of at bats. So Toronto, they're
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: one of the few teams that actually has given Schlitzler
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: some problems that looks like, so they might be able
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: to do something in this game. Kevin Goussman is pitching
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: for Toronto. He's been good three point six ERA, one
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: point ZHO nine whip uh. He's been better at home
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: three point three to eight home ERA, so both pitchers
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: are in the better of their home road split here.
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: Goussman has allowed four earned runs and each of his
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: starts this month, but they were against Atlanta. You know,
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: Atlanta is a good offense, although obviously so are the Yankees.
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: Baltimore decent offense as well. I think Gousman got a
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: little bit unlucky though, because He also has a thirteen
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: to two strikeout walk ratio over those starts, so his
• 11:00
  Speaker 5: man numbers are still right there.
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: He's pitching well.
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: He's got a decent strikeout rate on the season, pretty
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: low walk rate, pretty low hit rate. He's not as
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: good as Schlitler, but his numbers are very solid and
• 11:12
  Speaker 5: he has better matchup numbers. Specifically here, one hundred and
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: seventy four at bats against the Yank, He's forty eight
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: strikeouts twenty one walks is not good. That is too
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: many walks to eighteen batting average allowed a six eighty ops.
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: So Gaussman has the better matchup numbers here. This is
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: a low total.
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: I agree it's low for a reason.
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: When I first looked at the pitching matchup here, I
• 11:36
  Speaker 5: was like, yeah, this looks like some sort of under. Obviously,
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: I don't think I want to do that, though, though
• 11:41
  Speaker 5: the money is coming in on the under. It is
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: clearly possible that Schlitzler does pitch well here. I don't
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: think Toronto's faced him this year, but he struggled against
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: them last year.
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: Eighty three percent of the ticket sixty two percent of.
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: The cash on the over, so the money is telling
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: you that the under is kind of the right play
• 12:00
  Speaker 5: seven and a half, very low total, but.
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: Not a lot of leeway there if you go full game.
• 12:05
  Speaker 5: These bullpens are a little bit used and maybe a
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: little slightly questionable.
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: Schlittler, I don't like his matchup numbers.
• 12:13
  Speaker 5: Yankees are the favorite and minus one twenty six here,
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: you know, I mean an under first five. I guess
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: still somewhat makes sense here, but there's no way that
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: I want to do that. I might lean to Toronto
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: in this game. Really, Toronto has a slightly more rested
• 12:31
  Speaker 5: bullpen here. They're an underdog at home, and they're one
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: team that's been able to get to Schlitler, so that
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: could possibly continue here. Man, I don't know, but he's
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: pitching pretty much out of his mind this year, so
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: I would worry about that a little bit.
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: He is overall the better pitcher than Gause Meaner.
• 12:49
  Speaker 5: The matchup numbers do kind of tell a different story here,
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: seventy seven percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: cash on the Yankees. Of course, it is possible the
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: Yankees bounce back after an ugly performance yesterday, so that
• 13:01
  Speaker 5: could happen as well.
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: Yankees don't hit as well.
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: On the road though, So I don't know, man, Uh,
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: Toronto is an underdog here and what looks like at
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: the very least, it could be a competitive pitching matchup here,
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: and you're getting an underdog price with Toronto at home.
• 13:16
  Speaker 5: I think they have a decent chance to be hanging
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: around in that game. So that's the way that I
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: look at it.
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: Not a play.
• 13:24
  Speaker 5: Oh is stride or hurt again? I have no idea.
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: Oh he's having an MRI. Oh God, the Mets. I mean,
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: the Mets are still not as bad as their record looks.
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: But ye had dugouted.
• 13:38
  Speaker 5: He's not benched, because that makes it seem like the
• 13:41
  Speaker 5: manager like took him out, Like that's not what happened.
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: He's hurt. Yeah, both bay, I don't know what we're
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: what we're saying here. Both baseball games there were a
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: torrent of runs. I don't know, Miami in Pittsburgh. Miami
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: this game yesterday eight to three, which kind of surprised me.
• 14:03
  Speaker 5: Braxton Ashcraft was still pretty good in that game, but
• 14:06
  Speaker 5: the Pittsburgh bullpen had some major issues in the game,
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: and that's pretty much why Pittsburgh lost their bullpen Socks
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh used two guys out of the bullpen, but they
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: pretty much destroyed the game for them. Miami only just won.
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: Miami is the better bullpen. They're number six in bullpen.
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is all the way down to twenty seconds. There's
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: a big bullpen advantage from Miami here. Pittsburgh has an
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: offensive edge number five in offense. They're really good at
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: home as well. Miami nineteenth in offense. Miami's also going
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: with a bullpen game here because they have lake Bashar
• 14:42
  Speaker 5: lake By Kyle listed as the starter here.
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: He's gonna be an opener.
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: He's got good numbers on the season, but he's been
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: going two to three innings and these openers he's been
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: pretty good and doing so. In fact, Miami's won all
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: of his outings this month. One of these was a
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: relief appearance, though I think his most re one. It
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: was a relief appearance. But he's been doing well. He
• 15:03
  Speaker 5: hasn't allow to run in seven to two thirds innings
• 15:06
  Speaker 5: this month, so he might go out there and throw
• 15:08
  Speaker 5: a few good innings.
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: Who knows. Pittsburgh has hit him well, though Pittsburgh's got
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: eleven at bats against him, four to fifty five average,
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: thirteen to fifty seven ops. So I don't know.
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't think I would want any part
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: of this Miami bullpen game. Bubba Chandler is pitching for
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: the Pittsburgh side. He has not been good this year,
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: though he's got talent. Man, it looked like he was
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: starting to figure it out and pitch well at the
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: end of last season, but this season has not been good.
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: Four point nine to one ERA, one point four to
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: four whip.
• 15:42
  Speaker 5: He's got a five point seven to nine home ERA,
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: so he's been bad at home.
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: His whip is definitely too high. He's been somewhat okay
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: ish this month, I guess on the road against two
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: good offenses, ten strike got four walks. I mean, the
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: walk number is just his huge concern. Though he walks
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: way too many guys. He's been pretty unhittable, which is good.
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rates decent. His walk number is crazy high.
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: He's got to figure that out, dude, because I think
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: he's a good picture. I think he's a talented young
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: pitcher and he could definitely bolster this Pirate's rotation here.
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: He's got to figure this out. Pitching coaches have got
• 16:20
  Speaker 5: to help him man. Miami's never faced him before, so
• 16:24
  Speaker 5: he does have that advantage, the advantage of being unfamiliar
• 16:28
  Speaker 5: to the opposing side, But that might not be enough
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: with the way he's been pitching here.
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: Looking at the numbers here, where are we looking here?
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: It is?
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: Money is coming in on the Miami side. It looks
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: like this game is kind of off the board in
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: a lot of places. I don't know what's going on
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: with this board here. Only FD has a price here
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: at minus one forty two money line on Pittsburgh sixty
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: six percent of tickets on Pittsburgh, ninety three percent of the.
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: Cash on Miami.
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: So the professional money, at least according to this, looks
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: like it's backing the Miami bullpen game. I mean, their
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: bullpen is pretty good, but do you really want a
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: bullpen game here against this Pittsburgh offense in Pittsburgh? I
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: am not so sure about that. Money is also coming
• 17:12
  Speaker 5: in on the over totals at nine. The over does
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: make some sense here with a bullpen game against a
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: chandler who walks way too many guys, so I probably
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: wouldn't disagree with an over. The total is pretty high
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: for a reason at nine. I mean maybe that's the
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: better approach in that game is to look over. I
• 17:30
  Speaker 5: don't know why the price or why the yeah, why
• 17:34
  Speaker 5: the game is just off the board everywhere.
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: Though Strider's fastball was eighty eight. That is a huge problem.
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: He used to throw what mid to upper nineties. Probably
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: what is going on with him? I don't know, man,
• 17:48
  Speaker 5: I know he's had like some major surgeries. Yeah, I
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: know they both went over yeah.
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: Like early.
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yes, unc one. I saw some of
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: that game. Uh. West Virginia is not very good. West
• 18:09
  Speaker 5: Virginia just they barely got by Troy in their last game.
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: That's how good they are West Virginia. I don't know.
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: This is college baseball we're talking about. I don't know
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: much about it though. I mean it could mean the
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: West Virginia's undervalue. But I assume unc is gonna be
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: a huge favorite against them.
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: One hundred.
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: Yeah, he's never gonna be back to what he once was. Dude,
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: it's just it's gone, like you can't you can't repair
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: that unless he uh he dude, Like I said, I
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: just I just watched Rookie of the Year a few
• 18:41
  Speaker 5: days ago. He's got to fall on his arm and
• 18:43
  Speaker 5: break it and then uh, and then that'll.
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: Allow him to throw one hundred miles an hour again.
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: Maybe that's what needs to happen.
• 18:50
  Speaker 5: I also forgot to mention Gary Busey is in that
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: movie too. He's the He's chet Steadman, the old pitcher
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: on the cobs that becomes the kids like mentor basically
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: all right, San Diego and Baltimore. Baltimore won the game
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: yesterday pretty easily. San Diego is not playing well. Baltimore's
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: won a few games in a row, by the way,
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: I did forget to mention I think Miami's on a
• 19:17
  Speaker 5: big win streak, right Yeah, Miami's on a six game
• 19:19
  Speaker 5: win streak, so they do have momentum right now. At
• 19:23
  Speaker 5: least Baltimore's got a few wins in a row. They
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: got some momentum here as well. San Diego has the
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: better bullpen here. San Diego used two guys out of
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: the bullpen yesterday. Baltimore used four, so there's a pretty
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: big bullpen advantage for San Diego here. They're number five
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: in bullpen. They're one of the best bullpenny arrays, though
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: Baltimore is number seventeen in bullpen, not particularly good. Baltimore
• 19:46
  Speaker 5: is the better offense. They're ranked tenth. San Diego is
• 19:51
  Speaker 5: dead last thirtieth. San Diego is going with Randy Vasquez,
• 19:56
  Speaker 5: who you know, the advanced analytics guys keep waiting for
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: this guy to totally implode.
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: It hasn't really happened.
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: He's got a three point six to three ERA one
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: point three whip is not great, but it's not horrible.
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: He's been good on the road one point eight two
• 20:11
  Speaker 5: road ra which again makes no sense because San Diego
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: is a pitcher friendly ballpark. So why he's considerably worse
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: at home? I have no idea. Didn't pitch well in
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: his last game though, against the Mets. Give up four
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: runs on eight hits in four innings, a couple of walks,
• 20:27
  Speaker 5: so he's having some issues here. His issue is usually
• 20:30
  Speaker 5: the walk number, which is lower than it usually is
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: for him. This year, it's kind of a tolerable walk number.
• 20:38
  Speaker 5: This year, his hit rate is right around one per
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: inning and his strike out rate is pretty low. He's
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: not a strikeout pitcher, but he's kind of gotten his
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: walks under control a little bit, so you do have
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: to give him that. So I don't think he's quite
• 20:51
  Speaker 5: as bad as what he was last year and or
• 20:54
  Speaker 5: the year before that or whatever. Against Baltimore, though he's struggled.
• 20:59
  Speaker 5: They only have six guys so have faced him. They've
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: seventeen at bats against him, three point fifty three average,
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: eleven to twenty seven oh ps, one to two strikeout
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: walk ratio. I would not really want to trust Vazquez here.
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: He's still not really a great pitcher, even though he
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: is usually good on the road.
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: This is not the easiest.
• 21:18
  Speaker 5: Matchup for him, and Baltimore is going with Trey Gibson,
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: who's a young guy.
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: I really don't know much about him.
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: Still four point two fourty I ray so far, but
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: his whip is one point five to three, which is
• 21:31
  Speaker 5: very ugly. He hasn't pitched prior to this year in
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: the major so this is it for him. He's made
• 21:37
  Speaker 5: three starts one relief appearance. He's only made it five
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: innings once, and in that out he had way more
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: walks than strikeouts. His strikeout walk ratio is terrible. Five
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: strikeouts and eight walks in seventeen innings and eighteen hits allowed.
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: This is not great.
• 21:53
  Speaker 5: So I don't know what we're expecting to get here
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: out of Gibson, probably nothing good. Although San Diego is
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: a very weak offense. They've never faced him before, so
• 22:02
  Speaker 5: I guess he has that advantage. But this game kind
• 22:05
  Speaker 5: of looks like an over game to me. I mean,
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: the totals ten or something around there, so the oddsmakers
• 22:11
  Speaker 5: are kind of telling you something with that or actually
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: it's nine and a half.
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: The money looks like it's backing the under though.
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: Sixty two percent of tickets on the over, seventy two
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on the under. I think if
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: I was gonna play this game, i'd probably play it over.
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: That would probably be my lean there. Don't really have
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: a whole lot else to say about it. Money is
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: also coming in on San Diego, so professional money looks
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: like it does not trust Gibson. Sixty one percent of
• 22:38
  Speaker 5: tickets on Baltimore, seventy percent of the cash on San Diego.
• 22:41
  Speaker 5: San Diego is an underdog here. Baltimore's minus one thirty
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: and if you get if you take San Diego, you
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: should do it full game because it'll get a big
• 22:49
  Speaker 5: bullpen advantage if you take them.
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: Kyle, what's up? I forgot to throw you on the
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: screen there as well. All right.
• 22:57
  Speaker 5: Yeah, uh, those are my thoughts on that game. Whatever
• 23:00
  Speaker 5: Seattle in Washington. You know, I liked Seattle in that
• 23:04
  Speaker 5: game yesterday. It would have been an easy win. I
• 23:07
  Speaker 5: should have just put that on my card. I know,
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: I didn't mention it as one of it. I mean,
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: I don't know if you could sense that I felt
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: a little bit more strongly about that one, but I
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: was thinking about and man, it was a nice situational
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: spot for Seattle, and I liked the starting pitcher better.
• 23:21
  Speaker 5: That's usually a spot that I will jump in on.
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: I'm pissed I didn't do it. The only reason I
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: did it was because Lttel had good matchup numbers.
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: He sucks, Dude, Lttel sucks. He's bad. Washington's bad at home.
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: So many things.
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: Lined up against Washington in that game return home spot.
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: They were traveling cross country, Seattle was coming in from Baltimore.
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: Although Seattle had a rest disadvantage, so that was the
• 23:45
  Speaker 5: other reason why I laid off it.
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: The rest disadvantage.
• 23:48
  Speaker 5: But Seattle's got the better bullpen, Seattle had the way
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: better starting pitcher on the mound yesterday. It was such
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: an easy win for Seattle. Oh man, I should have
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: done it. Seattle on these one guy out of the bullpen,
• 24:01
  Speaker 5: so their bullpen is the better one, and it's very
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: rested here. Washington used two guys out of the bullpen.
• 24:07
  Speaker 5: Washington twenty fourth in bullpen. They're a bad bullpen man.
• 24:11
  Speaker 5: Seattle is fifteenth, but they have one of the best
• 24:14
  Speaker 5: bullpen erras. They're a pretty solid bullpen. Washington is a
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: good offense fifteenth Seattle or excuse me number five.
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: Excuse me.
• 24:22
  Speaker 5: Seattle is fourteenth. Washington not quite as good offensively at
• 24:27
  Speaker 5: home though, and a lot of their pitching is bad
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: at home. But this pitching matchup may not be as
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: good for Seattle.
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: Here and Washington.
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: They are in a spot that is typically a decent spot,
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: which is when a team returns home from the road,
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: and they have that bad distracted spot in that first game.
• 24:44
  Speaker 5: Oh and by the way, Washington, the other thing is
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: they blew a nine to one lead in the eighth
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: inning in the previous game against San Francisco, And I
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: know that's not really a big matchup against San Francisco
• 24:57
  Speaker 5: or whatever.
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: When you blow a big.
• 24:58
  Speaker 5: Lead like that, a lot of times that will kind
• 25:00
  Speaker 5: of hangover into the next game. So there was a
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: lot as far as like, there are a lot of
• 25:05
  Speaker 5: negatives for Washington in that game coming off of that
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: San Francisco game whatever, Seattle one, ten to two. But
• 25:12
  Speaker 5: now Washington's in a positive spot because when you do
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: return home and you have that bad spot and you
• 25:18
  Speaker 5: don't play well, a lot of times you bounce back
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: in the next game. You got whatever you have to
• 25:22
  Speaker 5: do at home. A lot of it's just out of
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: the way. Now you got smacked in the mouth, you
• 25:26
  Speaker 5: can go just focus on baseball again, you know. So
• 25:30
  Speaker 5: it's a more positive spot here. It's a better pitching
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: matchup for Washington here than yesterday's was. Luis Castillo is
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: pitching for Seattle. I still don't know what's going on
• 25:39
  Speaker 5: with this guy, because his career numbers are way better
• 25:42
  Speaker 5: than what he's done this year five point one six ERA,
• 25:45
  Speaker 5: one point three to six whip. I don't know what's
• 25:48
  Speaker 5: wrong with him. He's been basically the same home and away.
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: It doesn't even matter. He has pitched well in like
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: three outings in a row now, though, so that's a
• 25:56
  Speaker 5: good sign. One of them was at the A's Stadium,
• 25:59
  Speaker 5: which was a shortened outing, but still that's not an
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: easy environment to pitch in, so decent sign he is
• 26:05
  Speaker 5: pitching a little bit better right now. I expect him
• 26:08
  Speaker 5: to somewhat come back into form here, and maybe that
• 26:11
  Speaker 5: is what's happening right now, because there's no real reason
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: for him not to unless he has some sort of
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: injury or something.
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: He's not that old. He's thirty three. His career, he's.
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: Been pretty steady with like a whip in like the
• 26:22
  Speaker 5: one two's and an er and like the high threes.
• 26:25
  Speaker 5: So I still don't know what's going on with him,
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: but he might be pitching a bit better now. His
• 26:30
  Speaker 5: numbers against Washington are okay. In twenty five at bats,
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: they have five guys who have faced him. Miles Mikolas
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: has a double off him. Though he should be in
• 26:39
  Speaker 5: the lineup, man, they should put him in.
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: That's ridiculous.
• 26:43
  Speaker 5: He's obviously not gonna be in the lineup even though
• 26:45
  Speaker 5: he's one for three with a double.
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: On a walk off of Castillo. I don't know how.
• 26:52
  Speaker 5: In the in their entirety, in twenty five at bats,
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: they have a two to eighty average against Castillo six
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: ninety three ops, two to two.
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: Strike out walk rate.
• 27:01
  Speaker 5: You but remember, yeah, Michoelas is obviously not gonna be
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: in the lineup because he is a pitcher. Based on this,
• 27:07
  Speaker 5: he's a better hitter than he is a pitcher. Oh
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: my god, Castillo, he might pitch well here, man, I
• 27:15
  Speaker 5: don't know. Kid Cavali is pitching for Washington. He's not
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: that bad. Three point eight to eighty r rail those
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: whip is bad. I know, one point four to four whip.
• 27:24
  Speaker 5: He's pitched mostly better recently though, and he's been better
• 27:28
  Speaker 5: at home too.
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: Unlike most of.
• 27:29
  Speaker 5: Washington's pitchers, he's been one of the few that's been
• 27:32
  Speaker 5: better at home. Three point five home Era wasn't really
• 27:37
  Speaker 5: that good in his last outing at Arizona. He's been
• 27:40
  Speaker 5: okay this month. In the month of May, he actually
• 27:43
  Speaker 5: pitched pretty well and he hasn't completely fallen off and
• 27:46
  Speaker 5: his two starts this month, so he's not pitching that
• 27:49
  Speaker 5: badly right now. He's got a high strikeout rate on
• 27:51
  Speaker 5: the season. His hit rate is definitely too high though,
• 27:54
  Speaker 5: and his walk rate is a bit too high, but
• 27:57
  Speaker 5: his strikeout stuff is there and that's kind of a
• 27:59
  Speaker 5: good sign. And Seattle's never faced him before, so we
• 28:02
  Speaker 5: might have that advantage of unfamiliarity against Seattle, Whereas I
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: always say, when a team has it faced a pitcher
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: before in that picture has decent stuff, that offense can
• 28:12
  Speaker 5: sometimes struggle against that pitcher. So I don't know, man,
• 28:16
  Speaker 5: I mean, this game, it might kind of sound insane,
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: but we might be looking at maybe a first five
• 28:22
  Speaker 5: under possibility here. It sounds crazy. I don't want to
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: do it, but that might be the way to look
• 28:29
  Speaker 5: at this one. The money's hitting the over though, on
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: the full game seventy nine percent of tickets, ninety three
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on the over totals around eight
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: and a half or nine. And if you go, if
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: you go over full game makes more sense because Washington's
• 28:42
  Speaker 5: bullpen is pretty much trash. The money is back in Washington, though,
• 28:47
  Speaker 5: which is interesting. Some the professional money looks like it
• 28:51
  Speaker 5: doesn't have faith in Castillo. Sixty four percent of tickets
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: on Seattle, which makes sense. I mean, the money's gonna
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: back Seattle here because then the better team recently, Washington
• 29:03
  Speaker 5: there is a slight favorite here. But the excuse the
• 29:07
  Speaker 5: tickets are on Seattle, it makes sense that like they'd
• 29:10
  Speaker 5: be kind of a public side because they've been playing
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: better recently, but Washington's got fifty five percent of the cash,
• 29:17
  Speaker 5: So do with that info what you want. It is
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: at least a bounce back spot for Washington. Cavali does
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: at least have the unfamiliarity, as I think, if you
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: play Washington, you should do it first five though even
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: though the price might be a little bit higher, it
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: probably won't be that much higher. But you'll get to
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: avoid their bullpen, which I think you want to do that.
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: You want to avoid their bullpen. So that's how I
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: feel about that game, not strongly, let's put it that way.
• 29:45
  Speaker 5: ESPN Unlimited has Arizona in Cincinnati. Arizona won the game yesterday.
• 29:50
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati has been playing some really bad baseball recently. They've
• 29:53
  Speaker 5: lost seven of their last eight games or whatever this is,
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: but they were at a bad spot yesterday. They return
• 29:59
  Speaker 5: home from the the Civic Coast, return home from the road.
• 30:02
  Speaker 5: I mentioned I leaned Arizona on that game. Arizona did
• 30:05
  Speaker 5: get the win. So now, like I said, with Washington,
• 30:08
  Speaker 5: it could kind of be a bounce back spot possibly
• 30:10
  Speaker 5: for Cincinnati here after losing that game in the return
• 30:13
  Speaker 5: home spot, A lot of times teams will bounce back
• 30:16
  Speaker 5: in that next game Cincinnati used three relief pitchers. Their
• 30:19
  Speaker 5: bullpen is very bad, though Arizona has the better bullpen,
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: although Arizona use.
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: A lot of guys out of it, these five relief.
• 30:27
  Speaker 5: Pitchers, and they're not a great bullpen even though they're
• 30:30
  Speaker 5: ranked number eight. Arizona has a bullpeny array above four,
• 30:34
  Speaker 5: so I don't really trust them that much. Cincinnati is
• 30:37
  Speaker 5: the last ranked bullpen though, although they have the third
• 30:40
  Speaker 5: worst ERA.
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: Right now behind Colorado and Minnesota.
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: But there's still a bad bullpen, so I kind of
• 30:47
  Speaker 5: would want to avoid both bullpens in this game in
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: whatever I do. Arizona has been pretty bad offensively. They've
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: fallen all the way down to twenty sixth.
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: That's not good. Cincinnati eighteenth.
• 30:59
  Speaker 5: This is a picture friend ballpark or a hitter friendly ballpark,
• 31:02
  Speaker 5: excuse me, in Cincinnati. So maybe the offense is could
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: get something going here, but versus these pitchers, I'm not sure.
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: Arizona is going with Michael Saraca, Garrett's favorite. He's pitching well,
• 31:15
  Speaker 5: three point two to eighty ra one point one five
• 31:18
  Speaker 5: whip the Braves Maybe could use him right now.
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: He's doing well.
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: He's not been good on the road though, five point
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: four road ray, so he's in the bad of his
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: home road splits here.
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: But he is pitching well.
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: He's been good for like pretty much the last month
• 31:33
  Speaker 5: plus at this point. I know, he gave up four
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: runs against the Dodgers, but that's the Dodgers, and he's
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: still had six strikeouts one walk in that one, so
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: he's pitching well. His command numbers have been good basically
• 31:44
  Speaker 5: the whole season. He's got a pretty good strikeout rate,
• 31:47
  Speaker 5: a pretty low walk rate, pretty low hit rate. None
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: of these numbers are bad, so yeah, he's been good.
• 31:54
  Speaker 5: His numbers against Cincinnati are kind of all over the place.
• 31:57
  Speaker 5: These are kind of strange numbers. Twenty one at bats,
• 32:00
  Speaker 5: he's only a lot of two thirty eight average, but
• 32:03
  Speaker 5: he's also allowed to nine to fifty two ops, so
• 32:07
  Speaker 5: they have not been able to get a lot of
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: hits off him. But the hits that they do have
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: have been hits for power in a lot of cases a.
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: Couple of home runs.
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: They do also have seven walks against him compared to
• 32:18
  Speaker 5: five strike ups, but he's really not like a walk
• 32:21
  Speaker 5: heavy pitcher though, so I don't know how to read
• 32:23
  Speaker 5: into that. I would tend to think that he should
• 32:26
  Speaker 5: pitch well here more than not, although I.
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: Worry about his home road splits.
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: I worry a little bit about those matchup numbers, so
• 32:32
  Speaker 5: I don't really want to back him here. But he
• 32:35
  Speaker 5: is pitching well right now. Cincinnati's going with Rhet Louder
• 32:38
  Speaker 5: who He's young. He's got the look to be a
• 32:42
  Speaker 5: pitcher here, but he hasn't figured it out yet. Five
• 32:46
  Speaker 5: point zero one ERA, one point four or five whip.
• 32:48
  Speaker 5: Those numbers are not good. He's been better at home though,
• 32:51
  Speaker 5: three point seven eight home he so he is the
• 32:53
  Speaker 5: better of the home road splits here. But his walk
• 32:56
  Speaker 5: numbers have been ridiculous. And I don't mean good. I
• 32:59
  Speaker 5: mean over his last three starts, he's allowed four or
• 33:03
  Speaker 5: more walks in all of them, or his three appearances,
• 33:06
  Speaker 5: he hasn't gone more than three innings in any of
• 33:08
  Speaker 5: those ridiculous thirteen walks over that span compared to only
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: six strikeouts.
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: Is that good? Uh? Yeah, no, no it is not.
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: He has a pretty low strikeout rate, which does not
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: go with his appearance where he looks like you should
• 33:24
  Speaker 5: be striking a lot of guys out. His hit rate
• 33:26
  Speaker 5: is pretty good, but his walk rate is crazy high. Obviously,
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: that's his main issue is the walks. He's got to
• 33:33
  Speaker 5: do something about that. Arizona only has one hitters faced him, Aronado.
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: He's one for two with a strikeout and a single
• 33:41
  Speaker 5: against him. So Louder is unfamiliar to Arizona here, but
• 33:47
  Speaker 5: I don't know if that's gonna be enough. Soraka, I
• 33:49
  Speaker 5: mean he's not in his good home road splits.
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: But I don't know, man.
• 33:54
  Speaker 5: I mean, I'd probably rather back Soraca, hear, if I
• 33:56
  Speaker 5: was gonna back one of these two pitchers, even though
• 33:59
  Speaker 5: his matchup numbers don't really look that good. Let me
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: look here, the money seems to agree with that. Eighty
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: percent of tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on Arizona,
• 34:08
  Speaker 5: they are favored.
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: They're around minus one thirty something here.
• 34:12
  Speaker 5: I think you could still probably go full game with
• 34:14
  Speaker 5: Arizona if you did play them, because six Naty's bullpen
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: is just that atrocious. The money is also backing the
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: over here. I could definitely see some arguments for it. Siroca,
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: I mean, he still has bad matchup numbers, bad roads
• 34:27
  Speaker 5: split here, Louder is just not very good, and you
• 34:30
  Speaker 5: got both bullpens that I think you could fade them both.
• 34:34
  Speaker 5: So a full game over here definitely does make some
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: sense to me as well. Sixty percent of tickets ninety
• 34:40
  Speaker 5: three percent of the cash on the over That might
• 34:42
  Speaker 5: even be the better way to look at this game. Really,
• 34:44
  Speaker 5: I think there should be some runs here between these
• 34:46
  Speaker 5: two teams. You know, maybe I'd rather back that than
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: trying to figure out which team is gonna actually win
• 34:53
  Speaker 5: this game. You know, totals around nine, which is probably
• 34:57
  Speaker 5: about where it should be. All right, Atlanta and the Mets.
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: This is yeah, this pitching matchup, I don't know about this.
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: The Mets won yesterday seven of five. Atlanta almost came
• 35:10
  Speaker 5: back after I think they were losing seven to two.
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: With Strider on the mound.
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: Nolan McClain pretty much did his job, but the rest
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: of what went on did not go well. The Mets
• 35:22
  Speaker 5: bullpen didn't really do that great either, so something to
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: consider here. The Mets used more of their bullpen yesterday.
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: They use four guys out of the bullpen. Their bullpen
• 35:31
  Speaker 5: is now, all of a sudden, pretty taxed over the
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: last couple of days. That's not good. They used a
• 35:39
  Speaker 5: couple of their better relievers multiple days in a row.
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: Two to win that game. So that's not good either.
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: Two save situations in a row, so I would not
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: really want.
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: To participate in. I would not want to partake.
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: Let's say, in the Mets bullpen today, Atlanta only used Jr.
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: Out of the bullpen starter slash long relief man, so
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: excuse Atlanta. So Atlanta's bullpen is very rested here, and
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: they're the number one bullpen.
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: They've been shockingly good.
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: I mean, they have a bullpen the Ray that's almost
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: a half run better than every other team in Major
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: League Baseball, and their whip is better.
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: So yeah, they're the number one bullpen.
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: The Mets are still the number three bullpen, but they're
• 36:25
  Speaker 5: probably not quite as good as that, and they are
• 36:27
  Speaker 5: unrested right now. Atlanta's number three in offense. Mets are
• 36:31
  Speaker 5: horrible offensively at twenty ninth, so Atlanta does have a
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: big edge there, although I think Atlanta also is actually
• 36:37
  Speaker 5: better at hitting on the road as well. Atlanta's going
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: with Martine Perez here. He's been good, you know. I
• 36:44
  Speaker 5: mean again, he's an older dude. He doesn't strike guys out.
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: He relies on locating his pitches and getting guys to
• 36:51
  Speaker 5: hit into a soft contact. It's been working though, three
• 36:55
  Speaker 5: point oh two ERA, one point oh six whip.
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: As I say, there's there's a reason.
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: Why he sticks in the league. And he's always you know,
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: he's always on like a different team basically, but he's
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: always on some team, you know, and he's like pretty
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: much always in their starting rotation. He hasn't been his's
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: gonna on the road though, four point two five roadyra
• 37:14
  Speaker 5: but he's still pitching pretty well. I mean, he's allowed
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: three or fewer own runs and all but two outings
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: this entire season. This is not bad, Like he's at
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: the very least he's keeping his team in these games
• 37:25
  Speaker 5: every time he goes out there.
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: He's got a pretty low hit rate, actually really low.
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: His walk rate's a bit high though.
• 37:32
  Speaker 5: His strike cut rate is low, but that's expected. He's
• 37:34
  Speaker 5: not a strike cup pitcher. But he's been getting the
• 37:36
  Speaker 5: job done. This is probably not the most difficult matchup
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: for him here. He's got seventy seven at bats against
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: the Mets though, so they are familiar with him. Fourteen strikeouts,
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: five walks, two sixty average allowed, seven h seven ops.
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: Not terrific numbers for him here.
• 37:51
  Speaker 5: Marcus Semian does a lot of damage against him, but
• 37:54
  Speaker 5: the rest of these hitters haven't done much of anything really,
• 37:58
  Speaker 5: So I mean, I guess Boba, Schettjan Soo in a
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: very small sample size, they've done a little bit. But
• 38:06
  Speaker 5: Perez has generally been pretty good against these guys, so
• 38:09
  Speaker 5: not bad. Sean Manaia was listed as the starter for
• 38:13
  Speaker 5: the Mets here, but they might put an opener in
• 38:15
  Speaker 5: front of him because now they're undecided. So I'm pretty
• 38:18
  Speaker 5: sure what the Mets are doing here is they're gonna
• 38:21
  Speaker 5: do what they've done with Manaiah, like basically throughout this season.
• 38:25
  Speaker 5: He's gonna pitch like probably four or five innings whatever,
• 38:27
  Speaker 5: but they're gonna put an opener in front of him.
• 38:29
  Speaker 5: So I'm pretty sure that's what the Mets are doing here.
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: So you're gonna get some opener, probably Braza bon or whatever,
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: and then Manaia will come in after that. That would
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: be my guess as far as what they're doing here,
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: Manaia has not been very good. Five point zero two
• 38:44
  Speaker 5: era one point four to four whip. I don't think
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: he has hair like this still. That was a long
• 38:48
  Speaker 5: time ago, but yeah, ridiculous. Manaia he's been worse at
• 38:53
  Speaker 5: home as well. Five point four to eight Homie Ray
• 38:57
  Speaker 5: not really good stuff here man, although he's been I
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: guess a little bit better over his last few outings
• 39:02
  Speaker 5: since they've been kind of giving him like almost a
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: starter's workload ish sort of, although they're taking him out
• 39:09
  Speaker 5: around like sixty to seventy pitches here. But he's been
• 39:12
  Speaker 5: efficient with his pitches. He's really not pitching that bad recently.
• 39:18
  Speaker 5: His overall numbers really the walk numbers the main problem,
• 39:21
  Speaker 5: and that has been kind of an issue with him
• 39:23
  Speaker 5: throughout his career. He's allowed a few too many hits too,
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: but his strikeout rate is actually pretty good and his
• 39:28
  Speaker 5: walk rate is too high. Like I said, his numbers
• 39:33
  Speaker 5: against Atlanta throughout his career are not very good. In
• 39:35
  Speaker 5: sixty two at bats eleven strikeouts, four walks, three zero
• 39:38
  Speaker 5: six average eight hundred ops. I think the way that
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: I would look at this game is I think I
• 39:45
  Speaker 5: would probably just lean to Atlanta here man. They have
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: I think they have a pretty significant bullpen edge given.
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: What the rest scenario looks like here.
• 39:53
  Speaker 5: I would prefer Perez plus the Atlanta bullpen coming in
• 39:56
  Speaker 5: behind him against this bullpen game. Which probably he is
• 40:00
  Speaker 5: gonna involve Maniyah for multiple innings that the Mets are
• 40:03
  Speaker 5: doing here. I think Atlanta also in a bounce back
• 40:06
  Speaker 5: spot after yesterday, right, like they're the better team. My
• 40:09
  Speaker 5: concern would be that it looks way too easy to
• 40:11
  Speaker 5: play Atlanta.
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: They're actually an underdog here.
• 40:15
  Speaker 5: And you know, I heard like some of the arguments
• 40:18
  Speaker 5: from the professional betters yes like yesterday, they had arguments
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: for backing Atlanta that were like, you know, Atlanta's just
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: clearly the better team, So you're getting them as an underdog,
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: like you rarely get them as an underdog. And I'm like, yeah,
• 40:31
  Speaker 5: I know, but that that's kind of like the public.
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: Way of thinking though, you know what I mean.
• 40:36
  Speaker 5: Like my way of thinking is always, well, there's a
• 40:40
  Speaker 5: reason why the odds makers made the other team the favorite,
• 40:43
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean, Like, there's a reason why
• 40:45
  Speaker 5: the Mets are favor here. The odds makers are not
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: handing you money, They're not like here, here's Atlanta as
• 40:50
  Speaker 5: an underdog, you know what I mean. So that does
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: kind of scare me here that the odds makers are
• 40:58
  Speaker 5: telling you the Mets are not as bad as the
• 40:59
  Speaker 5: wreck indicates at the very least, and that they're a
• 41:02
  Speaker 5: slight favorite in this game around almost around a pickrim price. However,
• 41:07
  Speaker 5: given what I just showed you at this matchup, I
• 41:09
  Speaker 5: do lean to Atlanta in this game though, and I
• 41:11
  Speaker 5: consider putting it on my card actually, but one of
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: my main concerns was really that it looks too easy,
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: and I don't love that when it looks too easy.
• 41:20
  Speaker 5: Sixty four percent of tickets, ninety four percent of the
• 41:22
  Speaker 5: cash on Atlanta, I mean, Perez does kind of worry
• 41:26
  Speaker 5: me a little bit, but I still think Perez plus
• 41:29
  Speaker 5: the Atlanta bullpen should get the job done in this
• 41:32
  Speaker 5: one in the bounce back spot, and the money is
• 41:34
  Speaker 5: agreeing with it. Like I said, it looks like the
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: professional money strongly backing Atlanta here, and I do agree
• 41:39
  Speaker 5: with it. The Mets or excuse me, the total is
• 41:44
  Speaker 5: also getting some money on the over for whatever that's worth.
• 41:47
  Speaker 5: The totals around eight to eight and a half. I
• 41:50
  Speaker 5: could see the argument for it, just that the pitching
• 41:53
  Speaker 5: setup doesn't look that great for either pitchers or for
• 41:55
  Speaker 5: either team really, so possible there are some runs here,
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: but I could also see it being a lower scoring
• 42:01
  Speaker 5: game than people might expect, so I don't know. Man
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: like Perez again, he's facing a really weak offense here
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: at the very least all right.
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: Detroit at Cleveland.
• 42:12
  Speaker 5: Maybe the surprise of the day here because school ball
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: is back. Man, He's pitching for Detroit today, so that
• 42:19
  Speaker 5: is going to help Detroit. It's not over yet for Detroit.
• 42:23
  Speaker 5: Detroit did use four relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen is
• 42:27
  Speaker 5: definitely worse than Cleveland's. Cleveland on these two relief pitchers yesterday,
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: but they did use their closer, which I think is
• 42:34
  Speaker 5: goaddess because they won the game by one run yesterday.
• 42:38
  Speaker 5: Cleveland's bullpen is very rested, though they were off on Thursday,
• 42:42
  Speaker 5: so Cleveland does have a bullpen advantage here.
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: Their ranked eleventh of bullpen.
• 42:46
  Speaker 5: Detroit is twenty first, although their eras are not too
• 42:51
  Speaker 5: far off. But yeah, Detroit, yeah, a little bit less rested.
• 42:56
  Speaker 5: Neither offense has been that good. Detroit's twentieth, Cleveland is
• 42:59
  Speaker 5: twenty seventh. Cleveland has really fallen off and their offense
• 43:02
  Speaker 5: has been struggling at home, uh for sure. And it's
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: not gonna make it better that they have to go
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: up against school ball. Who dude, I thought Scooball might
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: be out for like I thought he might not come
• 43:14
  Speaker 5: back this season, but he's coming back already. So I
• 43:18
  Speaker 5: don't know if they're rushing him back. I mean, I
• 43:21
  Speaker 5: don't think. I don't think they would. I don't think
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: they would rush him back in a season that might
• 43:25
  Speaker 5: be a lost season, you know what I mean.
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: So they're they're not gonna like get They're not gonna
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: put him out there and get him injured, right, you
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: know what I mean.
• 43:34
  Speaker 5: Like they're putting him out there because they think he's
• 43:37
  Speaker 5: ready to go. So there is that school ball and
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: we know he's one of the best pitchers in baseball.
• 43:42
  Speaker 5: We'll see if he is back in form already two
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: point seventy or eight point nine to five whip. I
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: didn't look at what his like rehab starts looked like.
• 43:50
  Speaker 5: I assume he pitched at least a couple of times
• 43:52
  Speaker 5: in Triple A.
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: But whatever, I mean, he's schooble.
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: If he's anywhere near back to form, he be pretty good,
• 44:00
  Speaker 5: right And I do I tend to like to back
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: veterans that are coming coming back from injury because I
• 44:06
  Speaker 5: think they actually get a little bit undervalued because people
• 44:09
  Speaker 5: are hesitant to back them because it's like, Oh, this
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: guy's injured, what is he gonna look like? But I'm
• 44:14
  Speaker 5: more of the opinion that this guy's a veteran, he's
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: been through situations like this before. Everybody's gonna be pumped
• 44:20
  Speaker 5: for him to come back out here, you know, like
• 44:24
  Speaker 5: the team's gonna rally behind him. Most likely everybody's the team.
• 44:28
  Speaker 5: You saw what the team's mental state was when he
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: went down, right, Like the team's stopped playing well, And
• 44:33
  Speaker 5: now that he's back, the team might have like a
• 44:35
  Speaker 5: renewed sense of energy, you know what I mean. So
• 44:39
  Speaker 5: I tend to like backing those guys. And like I said,
• 44:40
  Speaker 5: he's only gonna be back if he actually is ready
• 44:43
  Speaker 5: to go. So I tend to like backing these pictures
• 44:45
  Speaker 5: that are veterans that are coming back from injury.
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: School ball.
• 44:49
  Speaker 5: Oh yeah, by the way, we have we have to
• 44:51
  Speaker 5: look at his numbers here, two point seventy ra point
• 44:54
  Speaker 5: nine to five whip this season. He's been better on
• 44:56
  Speaker 5: the road as well, two point three to five roady
• 44:59
  Speaker 5: ra this and that was up through the end of April,
• 45:02
  Speaker 5: which is.
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: When he went down.
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: His overall numbers were good as expected, low hit rate,
• 45:06
  Speaker 5: very low walk rate, high strikeout rate. You know, all
• 45:10
  Speaker 5: the things that are good his career against Cleveland, they
• 45:14
  Speaker 5: have one hundred and fifty three at bats against him,
• 45:16
  Speaker 5: but he's been good against them.
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: Fifty one to nine.
• 45:19
  Speaker 5: Strikeout, walk ratio, two forty two average, five ninety eight
• 45:22
  Speaker 5: ops allowed, So yeah, he's been good against them. Cantio
• 45:26
  Speaker 5: Joey Cantillo pitching for Cleveland four point five to seventy RA,
• 45:31
  Speaker 5: one point five to one whip is very bad though
• 45:34
  Speaker 5: he's putting too many guys on base. He has been
• 45:36
  Speaker 5: a little bit better at home four point h eight
• 45:38
  Speaker 5: homey RA. But I don't think he's trustworthy here.
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 45:42
  Speaker 5: He just got kind of lit up by Texas in
• 45:45
  Speaker 5: his last downing. That is not a good sign, not
• 45:47
  Speaker 5: a good Texas offense. And that was in Texas, where
• 45:50
  Speaker 5: Texas is a very low scoring home team. Yeah, that's
• 45:54
  Speaker 5: not good. I would not trust uh Cantillo here. He's
• 45:59
  Speaker 5: got a really high one on the season. His hit
• 46:01
  Speaker 5: rate is fine, his strikeout rate is fine, just the
• 46:04
  Speaker 5: walks are ridiculous. The walk rate is too high.
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: He's not good enough.
• 46:08
  Speaker 5: And his numbers it gets Detroit though they actually are
• 46:10
  Speaker 5: not that bad. In forty four at bats to twenty
• 46:13
  Speaker 5: seven average seven forty two oh ps is still below
• 46:16
  Speaker 5: that seven point fifty threshold. Eleven to seven strike out
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: walk ratio is not good, though, But yeah, I think
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: Detroit is probably.
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: The way to look here.
• 46:26
  Speaker 5: Again, I mean, if Schoolble is anywhere near back to
• 46:30
  Speaker 5: what he usually.
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: Is, he should be able to outpitch Cantillo here.
• 46:34
  Speaker 5: I don't think I would want the Detroit bullpen, though,
• 46:36
  Speaker 5: and the money is fading. Detroit actually seventy two percent
• 46:39
  Speaker 5: of tickets, only sixty nine percent of the cash on
• 46:42
  Speaker 5: Detroit's the money generally. I think, though that really what
• 46:46
  Speaker 5: that's saying is that I think the professional money is
• 46:48
  Speaker 5: basically just saying you're paying too.
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: Much for school ball.
• 46:51
  Speaker 5: Still, I don't know that you really are, though around
• 46:53
  Speaker 5: minus one fifty seems kind of reasonable, although that's the
• 46:57
  Speaker 5: full game.
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: I think if you're gonna go first.
• 46:58
  Speaker 5: Five on this, which probably would be my recommendation, would
• 47:01
  Speaker 5: be to go Detroit first five here, you're not gonna
• 47:04
  Speaker 5: get a good money line price on it. Probably it'll
• 47:07
  Speaker 5: be higher than the full game because the odds makers, no,
• 47:10
  Speaker 5: Detroit's bullpen is not as good and That's why I
• 47:13
  Speaker 5: would want to take them out. But I think to
• 47:15
  Speaker 5: do that you'd probably have to lay a half run
• 47:17
  Speaker 5: on the run line, probably for Detroit in the first five,
• 47:20
  Speaker 5: and then you need them to be winning after five.
• 47:22
  Speaker 5: But obviously that's certainly possible, So I think that's the
• 47:25
  Speaker 5: way I would do that.
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: Lunchtime, what's up, dude? Are you serious? You're trying to
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: get off of a heroin? Dude?
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: I hope you're able to do it, man. I mean,
• 47:35
  Speaker 5: I am not a I'm not a hard drug user.
• 47:38
  Speaker 4: Man. I was. I got off of alcohol, so I mean,
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: I guess I'm.
• 47:42
  Speaker 5: Not the worst person to ask about this, but I'm not.
• 47:46
  Speaker 5: I've never been into like the super addictive drugs of
• 47:49
  Speaker 5: any kind, you know what I mean.
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: I'm a good.
• 47:51
  Speaker 5: Boy, yeah, man, I mean I, like I said, like
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: a day at a time, pushed through, you know, push
• 48:01
  Speaker 5: through the withdrawals. Whatever, it's gonna be painful, get through it.
• 48:04
  Speaker 5: And once you get through it, you know, it gets
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: easier with each day, you know what I mean.
• 48:08
  Speaker 4: You'll get through it.
• 48:08
  Speaker 5: And then you'll start feeling really good, Like once you
• 48:12
  Speaker 5: get through that initial like bad period, you know what
• 48:15
  Speaker 5: I mean. Yeah, Well, thank you, sir, thanks for checking
• 48:19
  Speaker 5: out the show. I appreciate it. Hell yeah, dude, I'll
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: pray for you.
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 48:24
  Speaker 5: I hope you can get off that stuff because it
• 48:26
  Speaker 5: is it is very bad. It's very destructive. So yeah, hopefully,
• 48:32
  Speaker 5: hopefully you can. I think you can, man, I have
• 48:34
  Speaker 5: faith you can. You can definitely get through this. I
• 48:37
  Speaker 5: would also say, you know, rely on like support mechanisms
• 48:41
  Speaker 5: like friends, family, if you have that around you, you know,
• 48:45
  Speaker 5: rely on that too. Or you know, I'm not I'm
• 48:48
  Speaker 5: not big into like AA and stuff like that, but
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: maybe something like that could potentially help. Just maybe just
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: some sort of like group like you know, or talk
• 48:57
  Speaker 5: to people that have been through that situation before, you
• 48:59
  Speaker 5: know what I mean, but like in person, you know.
• 49:04
  Speaker 4: All right?
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: The next game up is one of my two plays
• 49:07
  Speaker 5: of the day here, and it was the other under
• 49:15
  Speaker 5: that I recommended yesterday that was not correct, but that
• 49:17
  Speaker 5: was because the Red Sox just barely got it there
• 49:21
  Speaker 5: by scoring way more runs than you would expect in
• 49:24
  Speaker 5: a ten to one win yesterday. So the game did
• 49:26
  Speaker 5: go over. But we're gonna go under in Rangers Red Sox.
• 49:30
  Speaker 5: Like I talked about yesterday, This this just reeks of
• 49:33
  Speaker 5: an under series. You got two offenses that aren't good,
• 49:35
  Speaker 5: two bullpends that are quite good, good pitching in the
• 49:40
  Speaker 5: starting rotations here.
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this just seems very very under ish to me.
• 49:45
  Speaker 5: Yesterday the starting pitching I didn't think was quite as
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: good as it is in this one. So I like
• 49:51
  Speaker 5: this one a little bit better, although I liked it
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: yesterday as well, but left it off my card at
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: least that one. Luckily we did, because that one was
• 49:58
  Speaker 5: also a loser. The other one was a win though
• 50:00
  Speaker 5: the Detroit Cleveland won. That was the one under out
• 50:03
  Speaker 5: of the four that I really liked yesterday. I left
• 50:05
  Speaker 5: that one off my card. That was the one winner,
• 50:07
  Speaker 5: So that does suck. But yeah, I'm looking at this game, man.
• 50:12
  Speaker 5: I mean, we have two good bullpens to start this out.
• 50:15
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox use three guys out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 50:17
  Speaker 5: but they're a pretty rested bullpen right now. Texas is
• 50:20
  Speaker 5: a little bit less rested than that, but they only
• 50:23
  Speaker 5: used two guys out of the bullpen and not their
• 50:25
  Speaker 5: better relievers, of course, because it was a blowout win
• 50:29
  Speaker 5: for the Red Sox yesterday, So.
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: Both bullpens are pretty intact.
• 50:33
  Speaker 5: Some of the best arms were not used by either
• 50:36
  Speaker 5: team yesterday because it was a blowout.
• 50:38
  Speaker 4: So I like to see that.
• 50:39
  Speaker 5: Right, like, especially because one team put up a ton
• 50:42
  Speaker 5: of runs, So I think that might give you a
• 50:44
  Speaker 5: little bit of value in the next game on the under.
• 50:46
  Speaker 5: It's it's a situation where I like playing the under
• 50:49
  Speaker 5: quite a bit, right because you got to you had
• 50:51
  Speaker 5: a blowout in the first game, which looks like a
• 50:53
  Speaker 5: high scoring game, but what happened in that game was
• 50:56
  Speaker 5: the bullpens didn't have to use their better relievers, you
• 50:59
  Speaker 5: know what I mean.
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: So I think you get a little bit of value
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: here looking towards an under.
• 51:02
  Speaker 5: You got the Red Sox number two in bullpen, and
• 51:05
  Speaker 5: I think they have the third best bullpen eray probably
• 51:09
  Speaker 5: right now, so they were good bullpen. Texas is number
• 51:11
  Speaker 5: four right behind that. They have one of the best
• 51:14
  Speaker 5: bullpen's one of the best, yeah, bullpen erays as well.
• 51:18
  Speaker 5: Texas is going with Jacob de Grom.
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: He's really good.
• 51:22
  Speaker 5: We know this obviously, three point one eighty ra point
• 51:25
  Speaker 5: nine to nine whip. He's not that good on the
• 51:27
  Speaker 5: road at all though, five point one four road Ray
• 51:30
  Speaker 5: and Fenway Park is a lot more hitter friendly than
• 51:34
  Speaker 5: Texas is. But here's the thing, man, the Red Sox
• 51:38
  Speaker 5: and Texas have both been awful offensively in their home stadiums,
• 51:41
  Speaker 5: so that should help de gram here. He's not like
• 51:45
  Speaker 5: I know, he hasn't been good on the road, but
• 51:47
  Speaker 5: this is gonna be I think this is gonna be
• 51:48
  Speaker 5: one of the easier matchups that he could draw here
• 51:51
  Speaker 5: because the Red Sox their offense has still been really bad,
• 51:54
  Speaker 5: which I forgot to show that. By the way, Red
• 51:56
  Speaker 5: Sox are twenty fourth in offense, Texas twenty third.
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: Son. Reason, like I said to like the under here
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: is these offenses have not been good. Uh. Red Sox
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: have also been a pitiful home team.
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 52:08
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox in fact have the worst home record
• 52:11
  Speaker 5: in Baseball, worse than Washington, which is pathetic. Uh because
• 52:16
  Speaker 5: the Red Sox usually have a decent home advantage. And
• 52:19
  Speaker 5: I talked about how that's going away. Man, there's this
• 52:22
  Speaker 5: shift in attitude and culture where like the Yankees will
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: come to town and the Red.
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: Sox get like the Red Sox store will.
• 52:29
  Speaker 5: Be selling Yankees merchandise. I'm like, what the fuck are
• 52:32
  Speaker 5: you doing here, dude? Like I grew up through the nineties,
• 52:36
  Speaker 5: the two thousands. You know, this is supposed to be
• 52:38
  Speaker 5: a rival. You hate your rival, like there were no
• 52:43
  Speaker 5: it was unheard of for them to be selling any
• 52:45
  Speaker 5: Yankees merchant. I said, if you saw, like basically, you
• 52:49
  Speaker 5: heckle the Yankees fans that you see there's no Yankees
• 52:52
  Speaker 5: merch being sold in the fucking Red Sox official store,
• 52:56
  Speaker 5: and you get the vendors on the streets that are
• 52:58
  Speaker 5: selling the Yankees suck shirts up like that, that's the
• 53:01
  Speaker 5: way that it's supposed to be. I don't know what's
• 53:03
  Speaker 5: going on here, but yeah, this blows the Red Sox need.
• 53:08
  Speaker 5: The fan base needs to get like super intense again
• 53:10
  Speaker 5: and make this a home advantage again. But whatever I'm rambling,
• 53:14
  Speaker 5: I think de grom is gonna pitch well here, though
• 53:16
  Speaker 5: that would be my guest. I know he's been bad
• 53:18
  Speaker 5: on the road, but his recent road start at Saint
• 53:22
  Speaker 5: Louis was kind of more similar to this matchup, where well,
• 53:25
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis is a more pitcher friendly park, but it
• 53:28
  Speaker 5: reminds me of this game in a way because it's
• 53:30
  Speaker 5: another team that I just don't think scores that much
• 53:32
  Speaker 5: at home. So he did well in that out and
• 53:35
  Speaker 5: he's been good in both outings this month to Grom
• 53:38
  Speaker 5: has In fact, he hasn't allowed to run and he
• 53:40
  Speaker 5: has a fourteen to three strike out walk ratio this month,
• 53:43
  Speaker 5: so he's in good form.
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: Over his last three.
• 53:45
  Speaker 5: Starts, he's been good, although I know his road starts
• 53:49
  Speaker 5: were bad in the month of in the month of May,
• 53:52
  Speaker 5: but he faced Houston and the Yankees for two of
• 53:55
  Speaker 5: those though, so and his straight out walk racio against
• 53:58
  Speaker 5: the Yankees wasn't even that bad. But those are two
• 54:00
  Speaker 5: good offenses, so he did better earlier in the season.
• 54:03
  Speaker 5: He had a good start on the road against the Dodgers,
• 54:05
  Speaker 5: so I'm not as worried about his extreme home road splits.
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: He's got a really good hit ratio.
• 54:11
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is pretty low as well, does allow
• 54:14
  Speaker 5: too many home runs. He is a fly ball pitcher
• 54:16
  Speaker 5: and that can be kind of a concern in Fenway,
• 54:18
  Speaker 5: but the Red Sox just can't hit. They haven't taken
• 54:21
  Speaker 5: advantage of it, so I don't really see them doing
• 54:23
  Speaker 5: that here. And de Grom has a high strike out
• 54:26
  Speaker 5: rate as well, and he dominates the Red Sox, although
• 54:29
  Speaker 5: it's only in nineteen at bats, but they have not
• 54:31
  Speaker 5: done well against him. They have no extra base hits,
• 54:34
  Speaker 5: six strikeouts, three walks, one oh five average three point
• 54:38
  Speaker 5: thirty three ohps. So the Red Sox are right multiple
• 54:41
  Speaker 5: disadvantages here where they're not even really familiar with de Grom,
• 54:45
  Speaker 5: so they haven't really seen him. And he's done well
• 54:47
  Speaker 5: against the guys that have faced him, so I think
• 54:49
  Speaker 5: he matches up fine here. Ronyr Suarez Ranger against the Rangers.
• 54:55
  Speaker 5: Ronyr Suarez his picture for the Red Sox, he's been
• 54:58
  Speaker 5: pretty good, three point one one point one four whip.
• 55:02
  Speaker 5: He is a little bit worse at home, so I
• 55:03
  Speaker 5: know where we have the home road splits working against
• 55:07
  Speaker 5: us here. I know three point seven to seven homey ra,
• 55:10
  Speaker 5: but that's still not even bad.
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: And Suarez was good.
• 55:12
  Speaker 5: In his last outing at New York at the Yankees,
• 55:15
  Speaker 5: so he's in pretty good form right now. I know
• 55:18
  Speaker 5: he gave up some runs at his previous outing at Cleveland,
• 55:20
  Speaker 5: but he had ten strikeouts in that game, so his
• 55:23
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio over his last couple outings have been good.
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: So he's in pretty good form currently.
• 55:30
  Speaker 5: I would say, after he had a little bit of
• 55:32
  Speaker 5: a blip in well really in just one start against Atlanti,
• 55:36
  Speaker 5: I think he got injured in the previous start, so
• 55:38
  Speaker 5: I can kind of give him a pass for some
• 55:40
  Speaker 5: of that. He's got pretty good numbers overall in the season,
• 55:44
  Speaker 5: pretty low hit rate, his walk rate is a little
• 55:46
  Speaker 5: bit high, and his strikeout rate is okay. Numbers against
• 55:50
  Speaker 5: the Rangers, this is pretty much domination. He's got a
• 55:54
  Speaker 5: huge sample size here, seventy three at bats, eighteen strikeouts,
• 55:58
  Speaker 5: five walks, one twenty three average allowed three sixteen ops.
• 56:03
  Speaker 5: So you can see why I like the under here.
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: Both starting pitchers have really good matchup numbers here, Suarez
• 56:08
  Speaker 5: in a bigger sample size. So yeah, under is the
• 56:12
  Speaker 5: play here. We'll keep the bullpens in it in this
• 56:14
  Speaker 5: one because again I you know, I already explain why,
• 56:18
  Speaker 5: all right, uh.
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah, And the money looks like it agrees with this.
• 56:22
  Speaker 5: Sixty three percent of tickets on the over, sixty six
• 56:24
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on the under. Yeah, the totals
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: at eight, I think that's maybe even slightly high given
• 56:31
  Speaker 5: what this pitching matchup is.
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: This pitching matchup.
• 56:34
  Speaker 5: Looks almost like a seven and a half total type
• 56:36
  Speaker 5: of game here, So yeah, under eight, I'll do it up.
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: Gladly.
• 56:42
  Speaker 5: I did see some seven and a half STIs some
• 56:44
  Speaker 5: of the books out there when I look too. So
• 56:47
  Speaker 5: there's not a huge difference between seven and a half
• 56:49
  Speaker 5: and eight. Though, well, I'd rather have the eight, obviously,
• 56:53
  Speaker 5: especially at a price around like this, or I found
• 56:55
  Speaker 5: it at minus one twelve. That was at FD by
• 56:58
  Speaker 5: the way, if you're wondering. But seven is a more
• 57:02
  Speaker 5: key number than eight, though the odd numbers are all
• 57:04
  Speaker 5: more key in baseball, because that's how you break the tie,
• 57:08
  Speaker 5: all right, Gerald, Yes, everybody praying for lunchtime. There you go, man, Yeah,
• 57:16
  Speaker 5: yesterday didn't It did not go well. I was not
• 57:18
  Speaker 5: a day to play the unders. I should have I
• 57:20
  Speaker 5: should have gone with Seattle. Man, I was feeling it.
• 57:23
  Speaker 5: I don't know what I was doing, all right. Dodgers
• 57:26
  Speaker 5: in the White Sox this, I mean, this is a
• 57:29
  Speaker 5: good series.
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 57:30
  Speaker 5: This might be like the big series of the weekend.
• 57:32
  Speaker 5: I guess, I don't know. Uh, White Sox one eight
• 57:35
  Speaker 5: to two yesterday, crazy crazy stuff.
• 57:39
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 57:39
  Speaker 5: This Dodgers' bullpen is starting to have some problems. They
• 57:43
  Speaker 5: were really good up until recently. They used three guys yesterday.
• 57:47
  Speaker 5: The White Sox bullpen is not great. They used three
• 57:50
  Speaker 5: as well, but the White Sox bullpen's more rested here,
• 57:53
  Speaker 5: So I don't really know that the Dodgers have that
• 57:55
  Speaker 5: much of a bullpen advantage here. They're number seven in
• 57:58
  Speaker 5: bullpen now, their bullpen has been struggling over the last
• 58:02
  Speaker 5: week or so. White Sox number sixteen in bullpens, so
• 58:05
  Speaker 5: I don't really want to trust them, But I think
• 58:08
  Speaker 5: the bullpens are actually pretty close, closely matched in this
• 58:11
  Speaker 5: game here. The offenses are as well. Dodgers number one,
• 58:15
  Speaker 5: White Sox number four. Yeah, believe it or not, Uh,
• 58:20
  Speaker 5: it sounds insane, but White Sox Dodgers.
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: This is kind of a close match up here between
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: these two teams.
• 58:26
  Speaker 5: Although the odds makers are telling you no, the odds
• 58:29
  Speaker 5: makers are giving you you know, they're lining the Dodgers
• 58:32
  Speaker 5: as a massive favorite here. And that's because Yamamoto is
• 58:36
  Speaker 5: on the mound. Yoshinoba Yamamoto, He's he obviously is the
• 58:39
  Speaker 5: better of the starters. I'm not gonna disagree with that,
• 58:42
  Speaker 5: but I think the price is probably still too high
• 58:44
  Speaker 5: on the Dodgers, which I mean, obviously it usually is
• 58:49
  Speaker 5: two point six's eighty ray point nine to two whip
• 58:52
  Speaker 5: for Yamamoto. He's good, Obviously, he's better on the road
• 58:55
  Speaker 5: two point four or five. Roady Ray went eight innings
• 58:58
  Speaker 5: of one run ball, two hit ball in his last
• 59:01
  Speaker 5: game against Anaheim.
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: He's been really good over his last three starts.
• 59:05
  Speaker 5: After he had a little bit of a road bump
• 59:08
  Speaker 5: against San Francisco, but that was only because they hit
• 59:10
  Speaker 5: some home runs against him. He's been really good, really
• 59:14
  Speaker 5: low hit rate, low walk rate, his strikeout rates not
• 59:16
  Speaker 5: that high.
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: But whatever. He's like. He's the World Series MVP.
• 59:20
  Speaker 5: From last year, isn't he Yeah, he's Yamamoto man, and
• 59:24
  Speaker 5: the White Socks have not really seen much of him.
• 59:26
  Speaker 5: They only have three batters who have faced him. They're
• 59:29
  Speaker 5: only a combined one for nine. The only hit is,
• 59:31
  Speaker 5: of course Ben and Tende, as it always is because
• 59:34
  Speaker 5: he's been around forever, former Red Sox player Ben and Tende,
• 59:40
  Speaker 5: and the team has one strikeout, no walks against him.
• 59:42
  Speaker 5: So do with that info what you want. But Yamamoto
• 59:46
  Speaker 5: is pretty unfamiliar to the White Sox. I expect him
• 59:49
  Speaker 5: to pitch well here. Sean Burke is pitching for the
• 59:51
  Speaker 5: White Sox here, and he's been surprisingly good this season
• 59:55
  Speaker 5: three point eight eight ERA, one point one to eight whip,
• 59:57
  Speaker 5: although I.
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: Don't know if that's gonna continue. He's still pretty young.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 5: I think he might have been a rookie last year
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 5: or something, but he was obviously not this good last year.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 5: He's been a little bit worse at home four point
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 5: zero three home ra.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: His last outing was concerning.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 5: He walked five guys against Philadelphia. That's not good, although
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 5: he still had seven strikeouts and the previous starts that
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 5: he was making were not really that bad. So maybe
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 5: this was a little bit of a speed bumper or whatever,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 5: and he might come back into FORMUA, but he's got
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 5: to face the Dodgers, not an easy task. Overall, pretty
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 5: good numbers here though pretty low hit rate. His walk
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 5: rate is too high though, so that's the one issue
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 5: with him.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: Really.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 5: A strikeout rate is alright against the Dodgers. They have
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 5: sixteen at bats against him, one strikeout, two walks, one
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 5: eighty eight batting average a lot in six fifty three ohps.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 4: So he does have.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 5: Good numbers against the Dodgers in a limited sample size.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 5: But now that they've seen him, some of these got
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 5: only six guys. Six guys have seen him before. Maybe
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 5: they will hit him a little bit better than now
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 5: they're seeing him.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 4: But I don't know.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 5: This game mostly looks like more of an under game
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 5: to me. Also, I don't know if Otani is gonna
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 5: be in the lineup because he's been he's day to
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 5: day with like some sort of oh it's his knee.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 5: I guess I thought it was his back. He's been
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 5: day to day, so I don't know. I think he's
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 5: been out of the lineup last couple of days. Let
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 5: me say, no, he missed yesterday, so I don't know.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 5: He was not in the lineup yesterday. But I don't
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 5: know if he's gonna be in the lineup today. We
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 5: will find out, I suppose, all right, So yeah, this game,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 5: I think an under makes sense here. I think I
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 5: would go first five because I I don't know. I
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 5: kind of want to avoid both bullpens. Here. The over
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 5: is getting the money, but it is public eighty tickets,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 5: ninety percent of the cash on the over totals at eight.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 5: Dodgers are getting some of the money, but they are
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 5: really eighty nine percent of tickets ninety five percent of
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 5: the cash on the Dodgers at minus two hundred something.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 5: I would not lay a money line with the Dodgers, man,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 5: I can tell you that the White Sox might be
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 5: able to hang in this game. I don't know, but
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 5: I think the early parts of this game would be
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 5: lower scoring. That would be my read on this. So
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 5: I think first five under is probably what I would
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 5: do in that game, but I don't really want to
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 5: do it. So Dodgers also hit well on the road,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 5: so that is something to consider. They have a their
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 5: offense has been better on the road than at home.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 5: I think I think the Dodgers in Atlanta. That is
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 5: the case with both of them. All right, dirty sock,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 5: what's up? Thanks for hanging out?
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 4: All right, I'm gonna take a quick break.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 5: I'll be right back, and then we have to do
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 5: WNBA NBA and I'll talk about the world CP briefly,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 5: but I don't know shit about it, so I'll be
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 5: right back.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 4: All right. Oh, I think my mic was not turned off.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 5: Oh well whatever, alright, Uh let me see what's the
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 5: next game here? It is Houston and Kansas City. Oh yeah,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 5: all right, Well that's.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 4: My other play.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 5: And when I first thought about this, I was thinking
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 5: over made sense in this game, But then I looked
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 5: at it and I was like, wait, no, Kansas City
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 5: first five money line is gonna be the play here.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 5: Minus won thirty five is the best price that I found,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 5: which was at the Roman Emperor's Book, if you know
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 5: what I mean. That's where I found that one. These
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 5: two teams both have really bad bullpens. So I'm not
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 5: gonna do anything with these bullpens here, especially not Kansas City's,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 5: so I'm taking them out of the equation. Kansas City
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 5: used five guys out of the bullpen, and they're a
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 5: very bad bullpen.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 4: Houston used a ton, Houston used six.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 5: So whatever you do here, do not rely on these
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 5: bullpens to do anything other than give up runs. Houston
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 5: number twenty three in bullpen. They definitely suck. Kansas City
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 5: twenty eighth in bullpen. These are not good bullpens. The offenses,
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 5: Houston's been alright at eighth and Kansas City has not
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 5: been good at twenty fifth. So yes, I know we're
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 5: playing on a team does not have the better offense
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 5: by any means. But this is about the pitching man,
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 5: the starting pitching. We're gonna fade Mike Burrows again. We
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 5: faded him in his last outing. We gotta win with that,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 5: which was not his last outing, but whatever it was
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 5: it was Gage jump we played on him against Mike Burrows.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 5: Borrows has been really struggling man. Five point seven to
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 5: seventy RRA, one point five to seven whip. This is
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 5: not good. Although he is better on the road four
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 5: point three to four roadi RA, So there is that,
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 5: but I don't know if that's good enough. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 5: I know again that has been helpful to him pitching
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 5: on the road. But this past month, well, in this
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 5: month of June, I mean, he's gone ten innings, allowing
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 5: sixteen hits, seven walks and only getting six strikeouts, tallying
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 5: six strikeouts, and he's allowed four home runs. He's pitching
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 5: really really poorly here more walks and strikeouts is terrible,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 5: way too hittable too. Yeah, there's just nothing to like
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 5: about this. He's allowed way more hits than and he's
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 5: pitched on the season. His home run rate is high,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 5: walk rate is fairly high, strikeout rate low.
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: I don't see what there is to like about this.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 5: There is not a lot other than the fact that
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 5: he's unfamiliar to Kansas City. But his unfamiliarity has not
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 5: been enough this season. Like a lot of these teams
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 5: that have been unfamiliar with him, has still hit him.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 5: Only Isaac Collins on Kansas City has ever faced him.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: He's zero for one but with two walks.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 5: But still I think Borrows is absolutely fatable here and
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 5: we're gonna back Noah Cameron, who I liked last year,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 5: and he's starting to pitch that way again this year. Man,
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 5: He's starting to look pretty good again. He's got a
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 5: three point eight four ERA one point one to nine whip,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 5: which is pretty good considering he was pretty bad for
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 5: about a month and a half at the beginning of
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 5: this season.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: But he was good last year. I like him.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 5: He's been pretty much the same home in Away, a
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 5: little bit worse than home, but not too bad. And
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 5: he's been, like I said, his last four starts, or
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 5: really even more than that, maybe his last five starts
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 5: you can say, have all been good. This month, He's
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 5: got fifteen strikeouts and no walks and only four hits
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 5: allowed in thirteen innings, both those starts on the road.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 5: But still he's pitching really well right now. He's in
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 5: form right now.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 4: He obviously has.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 5: His command totally operating right now. He looks good right now.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 5: He's got a decent strikeout rate on the season, a
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 5: hit rate that's pretty low, and his walk rate is
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 5: okay enough against Houston. You want to talk about unfamiliarity
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 5: because he has it only low Perfido, however you pronounce
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 5: his name, has faced him and he's zero for two
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 5: against him with those strike outs no walks. So we're
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 5: gonna back Noah Cameron against Mike Burrows here. And that's
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 5: my other play for today. First five Kansas City money line,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 5: which I would do it anywhere. If it's in like
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 5: the minus one thirties minus one forties range, probably I
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 5: think it's good. And then if they are tied at
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 5: the end of four, it'll be a push.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia at Milwaukee and Fox Sports won. Jacob Mizierowski, Man,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 5: he had bad numbers against Philly in a small sample size,
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 5: I still thought he would pitch well.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: And yeah, that's what happened in that game.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 5: I think that I wound up kind of landing on
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee to go over their team total in yesterday's game.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 5: I don't know if they did. They scored six runs,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 5: so I guess, yeah they did. I guess they must have,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 5: because they think the full game total was seven and
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 5: a half.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 4: So Missierowski was insane in the game. He had a
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: complete game, one hit shutout with fifteen strikeouts. If you
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 4: guys didn't see that.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 5: And I saw some ridiculous stat which was that he
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 5: has I think he's thrown a pitch of one hundred
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 5: one miles an hour or more one hundred and forty
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 5: times or something like that this season, and all other
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 5: starting pitchers have only done that fourteen times season something
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 5: some ridiculous stat like that. I don't know, man, I
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 5: think this guy was created in some sort of laboratory.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: I have no idea.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 5: But he's not pitching today, obviously, But that was an
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 5: insane performance. And what that did do is that means
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 5: that Milwaukee's bullpen is completely rested.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 4: They didn't use anybody. They haven't used anybody for the
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: last two days.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 5: So Milwaukee's bullpen is very ready to go in this game,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 5: so they will have a bullpen edge.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 4: They have a bullpen edge anyway. Philadelphia's bullpen is.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 5: Okay, these three guys out of it yesterday, but Milwaukee's
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 5: got the bullpen edge. Their number where are they They're
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 5: only twelfth, but their ray is a lot better than that.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia's fourteenth, but lesser eray, less rested.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: You get. You get what I'm saying.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia offensively, they have not been good. They're number twenty eighth,
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 5: number twenty eight, excuse me, and the Brewers are number eight.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 5: So the Brewers have the better offense. Here Aaron Nola
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 5: pitching from Philadelphvia. He I tried to back him in
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 5: his last start, Man, it didn't work well.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to do with this guy. He
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 4: seems like he's.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 5: Not gonna be able to recover from that injury surgery situation, man,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 5: because he used to be really good. He's got a
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 5: five point eight six ERA one point four or five
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 5: whip this year.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 4: That's not good.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 5: A little bit better on the road five point five
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 5: to nine Roady Ray that last start, like I said,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 5: he walked four guys against the White Sox.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 4: Pitched well in the previous starts against.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 5: San Diego, but that was San Diego, so yeah, I
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 5: fucked up. The White Sox were able to get to him.
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man, I don't think I could trust Nola.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 5: He's got too high of a hit rate here. His
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 5: walk rate's a bit high too. Strike out rate is
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 5: actually good though. So that's the thing. Like a lot
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 5: of times these guys when they come back from surgery,
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 5: like their strikeout rate is way down. That's not really
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 5: the case with him. So there are still some indicators
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 5: that he might come back into form here, but I
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 5: don't know. His numbers against Milwaukee are good in his
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 5: career one hundred and twenty seven at bats, thirty seven
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 5: to five, strike out walk ratio two twenty eight average,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 5: six twenty eight ops. I mean, that looks like some
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 5: stuff that I would kind of want to back, but
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 5: I don't think I could do it here.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 4: Man. Yeah, Like I just can't trust him right now.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 5: He might come out to do well, but obviously those
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 5: numbers were accumulated throughout his career, like most of it
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 5: before he got injured, you know, So something to consider there.
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 5: Shane Drohan is pitching for the Brewers. They still don't
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 5: even have a picture of him here. The ESPN mugshot
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 5: still doesn't have him. He's been good though, three point
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 5: one one ERA, one point one two whip, but I
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 5: think this is his first season in the majors though,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 5: and he's twenty seven, so I don't know. I think
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 5: a lot of it is just because these hitters haven't
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 5: seen him before, and he's a lefty, so I think
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 5: the hitters just haven't really figured him out yet. He's
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 5: got a two point three to five home y ray,
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 5: which is good as well.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 4: I look at his overall numbers.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is pretty decent, hit rate, pretty decent,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 5: walk rate, pretty decent.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 4: I mean everything decent. There you go.
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 5: But he doesn't go deep into games though. I think
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 5: he's been used as a reliever quite a bit. Yeah,
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 5: he's made three starts and ten relief appearances this season,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 5: kind of as a long relief man in a lot
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 5: of cases. They're starting to let him kind of go though.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 5: He went six and a third innings his last time out.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 5: That was his first real, like full fledged start, and
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 5: it was at Course Field, which isn't really that easy
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 5: of an undertaking, and he pitched fine in that game.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 4: So Drohan seems like he is actually okay.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia has not hit well this year and they haven't
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 5: seen him before, so it seems like Drohan should pitch
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 5: pretty well here. This game looks like an under to me, man,
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 5: I mean, you definitely have to worry about Nola, though,
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 5: you got some we do have concerns with Nola here
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 5: for sure, but just looking at the match up here
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 5: in the fact that I think the public is probably
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 5: not gonna want to back an under or in a
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 5: game like this with two name teams and probably not
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 5: liking or even knowing who either of these pictures are
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 5: eighty two percent of tickets, eighty eight percent of the
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 5: cash on the over, but the over is publics even
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 5: though they're getting a little it's getting a little bit
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 5: more of the cash. The over is public totals at
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 5: eight seventy four percent of tickets, ninety four percent of
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 5: the cash on Milwaukee at about minus one forty here,
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 5: So the money is hitting Milwaukee here. I mean, I
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 5: guess I could see the reasoning behind that if you
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 5: play Milwaukee, you gotta go full game with it because
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 5: you want the full advantage of their bullpen, et cetera.
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't really disagree Milwaukee is the better team and
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 5: probably should win the game. I think an under kind
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 5: of makes more sense to me in that game, though,
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 5: I think that both pitchers might actually do okay. Speaking
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 5: of unders, under was my first thought in this next
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 5: game with the Cubs and Giants. Cubs won five to
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 5: one yesterday. Could be a bounce back spot for the
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 5: Giants here, but you know, I don't like the Giants.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 5: I just don't think they're that good. The Giants, their
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 5: bullpen has been struggling. To these four guys out of
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 5: the bullpen yesterday, but they're pretty rested still, or at
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 5: least were prior to that. The Cubs only US two,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 5: though their bullpen is somewhat rested as well.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 5: Cubs have the better bullpen. They're ninth and bullpen Giants
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 5: are twenty fifth, so their bullpen has really falling off.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 4: Not great.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 5: Cubs offensively are twelfth and the Giants are eleventh. But
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 5: again I think it's it's because of those outlier performances
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 5: the Giants had.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: I mean, they only scored one run yesterday.
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 5: This is still not a good Giants offense, man, So
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 5: I think the Cubs probably do have the better offense,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 5: like I said yesterday, And the Cubs have Ben Brown
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 5: on the mountain. He's been solid, backed him a couple
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 5: of times on the show. He's got a one point
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 5: seven to four ERA.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 4: Point eight to eight whip.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 5: He was coming out of the bullpen for a while,
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 5: and so they had starting pitching injuries, so they've moved
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 5: him into the starting rotation. He's a guy that when
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 5: I looked at his like underlying stats, I always thought
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 5: that he had some pretty good stuff and it's showing
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 5: right now. He's been good since he's been making like
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 5: full length starts here. He's got five plus innings his
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 5: last four of them against some pretty good offenses in
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 5: here too. His last time out was actually against San Francisco,
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 5: by the way, and I think that might have been
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 5: the game that we won, but we had to win
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 5: in an extra innings somehow.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 4: But Brown was really good in that game.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 5: So Brown, I know, he only went five and a
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 5: third innings in that game, but he allowed no runs,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 5: one hit, five strikeouts, one walk, so it should have
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 5: been he should have gotten a win in the game,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 5: but he didn't because his offense behind him didn't do
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 5: enough for him. Against Landon Roupe, you know who I
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 5: think pitched last night, by the way, Roupe you know,
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 5: should have given up more based on the amount of
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 5: walks that he had and whatever. But so I think
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 5: I still handicapped that game correctly. But whatever, Brown was
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 5: good in the game. He's allowed three or fewer earned
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 5: runs in all of his full start so far, he's
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 5: allowed one or fewer in the last three. He's doing
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 5: well against the Giants. I know the Giants just saw him,
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 5: so they are recently familiar with him, but they had
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 5: seen him before that too, and they have not succeeded
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 5: against him. They have thirty three at bats against him,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 5: one extra base hit as a double from a damas,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 5: eleven strikeouts, three walks, one fifty two average four to
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 5: four ops.
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 4: So Brown looks like he matches up well here. He should.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 5: I think he should pitch well here against what I
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 5: think is a pretty weak Giant offense. Here, Trevor McDonald
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 5: is pitching for the Giants.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: I like him too. I think he is good. Uh,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 4: he's young.
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 5: A lot of lineups haven't seen him yet, although the
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 5: Cubs have seen him now four point one five VR,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 5: one point one to eight whip.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 4: That whip is solid.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 5: He hasn't been as good at home though, five point
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 5: two to nine home y RA, even though San Francisco's
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 5: home ballpark is a more pitcher friendly ballpark. So I
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 5: don't know what's up with that. He did pitch against
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 5: the Cubs in that same series. The last series these
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 5: teams met up and that was his last start that
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 5: he made. He allowed one run on four hits in
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 5: five innings, but he did have three walks, which isn't
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 5: great six strikeouts, and he's had three walks a piece
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 5: in both of his starts this month. But he's been
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 5: pitching pretty well for the most part, so I kind
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 5: of think that's a little bit of an outlier. He's
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 5: got a pretty good hit rate, his walk rate is
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 5: I guess a little bit high, and his strikeout rate
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 5: is alright, so generally I.
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 4: Think he's good.
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 5: But the Cubs have now seen him, but they haven't
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 5: really done that well against him.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 4: Twenty one at.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 5: Bats, two thirty eight average, six sixty seven ops, one
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 5: extra MASE hit is a triple from Ian Hap, seven strikeouts,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 5: three walks overall, so I think both pitchers actually look
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 5: like they might do okay here. So I think this
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 5: looks like an under to me. I don't know if
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 5: i'd really want to include the San Francisco bullpen in
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 5: that under, though, so maybe a first five under could
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 5: be an approach here. Full game, I probably still wouldn't
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 5: disagree with the money disagrees, though. Twenty five percent of
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 5: tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 5: The totals around seven and a half or eight, so
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 5: oddsmakers will put up a pretty low total on this game,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 5: kind of telling you they think this is gonna be
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 5: a low scoring game here.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 4: I agree with that. I like the under.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 5: Like I said, I think maybe i'd go first five
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 5: with it instead. If you can find a four at
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 5: a decent price in the first five under four at
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 5: like minus won twenty five or something, that might be
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 5: the way to go here. I wouldn't disagree with the
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 5: full game under either though, but I think this game
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 5: looks like an under to me. Maybe just a few
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 5: question marks in there on that one seventy nine percent
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 5: of tickets ninety one percent of the cash on the Cubs.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 5: For what that's worth, they're around minus one twenty six here,
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 5: So the oddsmakers are telling you they like the Cubs
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 5: to win this game. Professional money seems to be backing
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 5: the Cubs as well, and I don't really disagree. I
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 5: think Brown plus the Cubs bullpen, I think they're both
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 5: better than McDonald plus the Giants bullpen, So I do
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 5: kind of lean that way as well to the Cubs
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 5: and I think the Cubs offense is still better too. Oh,
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 5: by the way, I forgot to mention, now, the Royals
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 5: are getting the money here. I forgot to mention that
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 5: in that other play. So both of my players have
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 5: the money backing it sixty three percent of tickets ninety
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 5: four percent of the cash on the Royals, although I'm.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 4: Going first five.
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 5: That's full game, but I'm still fine with that Royals
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 5: around minus one twenty six there after the full game,
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 5: and the money in that game is backing the over
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 5: pretty strongly, which I forgot to really call that out.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 4: But if you go over in that Astros Royals.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 5: Game, I think you gotta go full game if you
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 5: go over in that one, and I think it makes
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 5: sense because you have one bad starting pitcher and two
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 5: bad bullpens, so most things do line up towards an
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 5: over there if you go full game on that. All right,
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 5: Just you know, I'm a little bit all over the
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 5: place here Colorado and the A's playing in Las Vegas
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 5: again here, and we have another ridiculously high total because
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 5: we're at semi high elevation here. But if you look
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 5: at what these Vegas games have been, the first game
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 5: saw twenty nine run score, which is a ton, But
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 5: then we've had twelve seven to ten. So the last
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 5: three games in the stadium have all gone under these
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 5: enormous totals they're putting up there. So it seems like
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 5: the total they're putting up there is too high and
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 5: they keep doing it. But in this game, this particular matchup,
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 5: I would not want to be on an under though.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 5: I will tell you that even though I think that
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 5: number is too high, I think I would only probably
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 5: be able to play this particular game over the total.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 5: I mean, you do have two bad bullpens here. We
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 5: have Colorado, who let me say, Colorado used four guys
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 5: out of the bullpen. They have a pretty used bullpen
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 5: right now, which is not good for them. The A's
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 5: have a less used bullpen here. They use three guys
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 5: out of the bullpen yesterday, so they do have a
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 5: bullpen advantage. They're a better bullpen anyway, they're number twenty,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 5: but they're not a great bullpen. Colorado's bullpen is bad
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 5: twenty sixth and they're dead last in e RA hitting wise,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 5: Colorado sixteenth as seventh, so offenses that can hit a
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 5: bit here. Kyle Freeland is pitching for Colorado. He has
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 5: not been good. Seven point eight one ERA, one point
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 5: seven whip. This is some pretty bad stuff here. He's
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 5: been even worse on the road eight point oh seven
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 5: road era. He's I mean, I don't I don't even
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 5: know if I want to say he's pitched okay in
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 5: his two starts this month, but I guess relatively he's
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 5: been okay this month, but still only six strikeouts intended
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 5: to there's any's fourteen hits a lot is certainly not good.
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 4: Two walks is fine.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 5: He's got a fairly low walk rate, but his hit
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 5: rate is really high, and he's a pretty extreme fly
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 5: ball pitcher. And he's a lot of pretty good amount
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 5: of home runs here. His strikeout rate is not even
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 5: really that high either, so that probably does not play well,
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 5: you know, not only in his home stadium, of course field,
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 5: but I don't think that's gonna play well in this
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 5: stadium either. His home run conduciveness, I guess, and in
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 5: the amount of fly balls that he gives up. His
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 5: numbers against the A are not good, but it's a
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 5: very small sample size.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 4: They have four hitters who have faced him.
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 5: Rooker is now hurt by the way for the A's,
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 5: so he is not gonna be.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: In these stats here.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 5: Freeland has eleven at bats against them, two seventy three average,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 5: eleven to fifty two OPS, two to one strike a
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 5: walk ratio. There's some extra base hits in here, high
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 5: him as a home run against him. Leangaliers has a
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 5: double on a.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 4: Triple off him. So do with all that info what
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 4: you want, but I don't think.
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 5: I do not think Freeland is gonna pitch well here,
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 5: and the A's are going with Joey Estees, who has
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 5: not pitched yet this season. But if you look at
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 5: what he's done over his career, which started in twenty
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 5: twenty three when the A's was still Oakland, there's nothing
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 5: alike about any of this. He's got a five point
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 5: five to one career ERA one point three whip that's
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 5: not good, a low, low strikeout ry. The walk rate
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 5: is not too bad though, and the hit rate is
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 5: the hit rate is just yeah, too high, so he's
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 5: a very hit I don't like what I'm seeing, although
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 5: he's only twenty four, so you got to give him
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 5: at least a little bit of leeway there where he
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 5: might get better, you know, what I mean, like they
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 5: might have rushed him up, bringing him into the league
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 5: at the age of like twenty one, you know what
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 5: I mean. So, and then against Colorado they have seen
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 5: him a bit. They have eighteen at bats, four hitters
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 5: have faced him, and they've done well against him four
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 5: forty four average, fourteen forty four ohps, four to one
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 5: strike at Walkershaw. I've not looked at what ss is
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 5: done in Triple A or in the minors this year.
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 5: Presumably he's been pitching in the minors this year. They
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 5: brought him up, though, but he does not look like
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 5: he matches up well here. I still there's nothing to
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 5: really see in what he's done in the major so
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 5: far to really want to trust him here. So I
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 5: think an over might actually be the approach here. But
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 5: the total is just so high at fourteen, like you
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 5: need a lot of things to go right to get
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 5: this thing over the total, even though I know that
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 5: first game in this park was ridiculously high scoring, but
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 5: the rest of the games were more normal. Money is
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 5: hitting the under seventy seven percent of tickets eighty seven
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on the under fourteen here, I
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 5: still think an over would be the way I would
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 5: play it, though, but I don't really want to do it.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 5: Eighty four percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 5: cash on the A's, who are pretty heavily favored because
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 5: the Rockies suck. But does does Estees, who has like
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 5: no track record of doing anything great in the Major
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 5: soubur does he deserve to be a minus one seventy favorite.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 5: Probably not eighty four percent of tickets ninety one percent
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 5: of the cash on the A's though, I mean they
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 5: are the better team. Obviously, they do have a bullpen advantage,
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 5: so you give them that and a better offense, so whatever,
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 5: all right, And then we have Tampa and Anaheim. Anaheim
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 5: won the game yesterday. They've won three in a row,
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 5: so they go. They won four to three yesterday Tampa,
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 5: leg I said, I think Tampa's.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 4: Not as good as the record makes them look.
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 5: At the very least, they do have a rested bullpen
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 5: here though they didn't use anybody on Thursday, and they
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 5: use one guy out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 4: Anaheim's bullpen is bad.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 5: They use three guys out of the bullpen yesterday, but
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 5: nobody the day before that. Still, Anaheim is a very
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 5: bad bullpen number twenty seven. Tampa's not that good though,
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 5: at nineteenth, So I don't like either of these bullpens here,
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 5: although Tampa's is the better one. Tampa's thirteenth in offense,
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 5: they've dropped a little bit in offense.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 4: The Angels are twenty first, though.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 5: Tampa's going with Griffin Jacks, which means it's kind of
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 5: a pseudo bullpen game for them here. He's not great,
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 5: four point one five ERA, one point four to one
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 5: whip is not good. Decent Roady Ra though, three point
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 5: six to three Roady Ray. But I don't know what
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 5: you're gonna get out of him here, man. I mean,
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 5: he's reached five innings a few times this year, and
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 5: he's had some shorter outings as well, So I don't
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 5: know what they're gonna do. I think it's gonna depend
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 5: on what the matchups are and how he's pitching, so probably,
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 5: I mean, I'm gonna guess he's gonna get you probably
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 5: three four innings here, but I have no idea.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 4: I don't think he's that good. Though.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 5: Anaheim has fourteen at bats against the two eighty six
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 5: average only six nineteen ops, though they have no extra
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 5: base hits against him, seven strike outs, one walk, So Jacks,
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 5: I mean he might do okay here. Jose Soriano is
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 5: pitching for Anaheim. He's at least an actual starter two
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 5: point nine six ERA, one point two to four whip.
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 5: He he's not as good as he was early at
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 5: this season when he was dominating. And you know what
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 5: I always say about him is he's not as good
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 5: at home. Although this year he's been okay three point
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 5: six y six homey RA. Still not as good at
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 5: home though last year he was really bad at home.
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 4: This month he has not pitched that well though. His
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 4: walk rate is ridiculous.
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 5: In ten and two thirds innings nine walks along with
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 5: nine strike guts. That is not gonna get the job
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 5: done usually, Man, you cannot walk that many guys and
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 5: eleven hits allowed. Not great either, And most of those
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 5: walks came in a home starting against Colorado, which is
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 5: pretty damning because they are not a good offense on
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 5: the road.
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 4: They're not.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 5: The other start was against the Dodger, so maybe give
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 5: him a little bit of a pass for that. He's
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 5: got a high strike out rate on the season in
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 5: a low hit rate, but his walk rate has gotten
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 5: really high, so that's his main problem is the walks.
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 4: His numbers against Tampa are not good.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 5: In thirty three at bats three sixty four average allowed
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 5: eight thirty seven ops, six strikeouts, one walk, so Tampa
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 5: might be able to get to him here. I think
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 5: there are more indicators for an over here than anything else.
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 5: You've got two bad bullpens, and you could see some
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 5: runs scored against both of these starters here, so I
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 5: think it over makes the most sense in this one.
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 4: The total is fairly low at eight, which the.
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 5: Oddsmakers are kind of telling me that they disagree with
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 5: me on the game being an over. But fifty percent
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 5: of tickets on the over fifty five percent of the
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 5: cash on the under, those are that's not really a
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 5: significant split there, so I don't know. And then the
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 5: money is coming in on Tampa Bay. But I don't
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 5: even see what the money. Oh no, I do see.
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay is a small favorite here around minus one twelve.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 5: I guess sixty two percent tickets ninety two percent of
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 5: the cash on Tampa.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 4: Do with that info what you want, but I would
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 4: lean over in that game. All right.
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 5: Finally, the baseball talk is over, WNBA We have four
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 5: WNBA Cup games here. They're all in the evening, the
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 5: early evening game on Peacock and NBC, which is Indiana
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 5: and Connecticut. This looks like a mismatch. I mean, Connecticut's
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 5: the worst team in the league. Indiana's good. Uh, they're
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 5: better than people think they are. Connecticut is also coming
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 5: up almost upsetting Toronto on Wednesday.
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 4: They went into overtime. Again.
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 5: I talk about when teams go into overtime when they
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 5: play real close against the team as a big underdove.
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 5: They were eight and a half point underdogs in that game.
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 5: A lot of times they'll come up flat in the
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 5: next game after that. But what I will say is,
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 5: if you look at the stats in this game, Connecticut
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 5: or yeah, well Toronto had what is that eleven more
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 5: free throw makes in the game, and somehow connecticuts still
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 5: almost beat them. So Connecticut outplayed them in the game.
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 5: Connecticut out rebounded them by double digits. Connecticut led the
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 5: game seventy two percent of the game. So those stats
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 5: kind of worrying me a little bit about wanting to
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 5: fade Connecticut in this game here today. But generally, yes,
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 5: I would say when a team is a big underdog
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 5: and they fall just short like that, it could definitely
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 5: hang them over into the next game. But there are
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 5: some regression points here where they might shoot better from
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 5: the free throw line. Here, you know, they might clean
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 5: up the turnover issues a little bit. Now they're back
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 5: at home Indiana, though, I think they should be in
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 5: a positive spot because they just barely got by Chicago.
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 5: This is an overtime game as well. This was two
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 5: days ago, so Indiana has one fewer day rests. If
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 5: you look at what happened in this game, Indiana, I
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 5: mean they led seventy five percent of the game, They
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 5: won the rebound battle by double digits. They should not
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 5: have almost lost this game, and they were nine and
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 5: a half point favorites. So they're in a situation where
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 5: I talk about when a team is a big favorite
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 5: and they almost lose, that tends to get them focused
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 5: in the next game. It tends to refocus them. So
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 5: from the situation perspective, I lean Indiana here. But you're
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 5: having to lay a lot of points on the road.
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 5: The money agrees eighty percent of tickets eighty nine percent
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 5: of the cash in Indiana, you're laying like ten and
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 5: a half or ten here with them right now, though,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 5: But that is the way I would lean if I
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 5: was gonna play that one. Minnesota and Vegas, these are
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 5: two of the best teams in the league. CBS Paramount
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 5: Plus has this game. I don't have a good read
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 5: on this one. Vegas is on a roll right now.
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 5: They've won all the Cup games so far. This is
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 5: a All these games today are more Cup games, so
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 5: I don't even know how the Cup stuff works. But whatever,
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 5: Vegas has won all the games so far. They just
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 5: won in Portland and now they're coming back home. But
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 5: they're not gonna overlook Minnesota. Minnesota still looks like they
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 5: don't have Collier back. She's potentially coming back in the
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 5: next game, and that's gonna make Minnesota even better. They're
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 5: already the best team in the league right now without her,
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 5: which is insane to think about. Minnesota has won a
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 5: ton of games in a row here, They've won eight
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 5: games in a row, and they just blew out Dallas
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 5: in their last game, and now they're going to Vegas here.
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 4: I think both teams show up. Both teams have momentum here.
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 5: This game looks like you have to just handicap it
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 5: as a numbers handicap here, Vegas is around a two
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 5: and a half point favorite here three and a half
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 5: At a couple of the.
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 4: Books, money is all playing Minnesota, though.
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 5: Fifty percent of tickets ninety four percent of the cash
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 5: on Minnesota.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 4: I don't have a great read on this one. Again.
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 5: I think both teams are gonna show up. But the
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 5: one thing that you can read into a little bit
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 5: is that Minnesota has been really good on the road.
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 5: They're five and zero on the road and Vegas is
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 5: only two and two at home. So the home road
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 5: splits at least do favor Minnesota to hear. And they're
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 5: a little bit of an underdog, so you might be
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 5: able to lean into that a little bit. Dallas at Portland.
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 5: Portland has lost all their Cup games. I'm pretty sure
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 5: it's an expansion team that's not doing well recently. They
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 5: just got blown out by Vegas, not really blown out,
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 5: but lost by double digits.
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 4: Staying at home, they might show up and play a
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 4: little bit better here.
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 5: Dallas has been playing some good basketball though, and they're
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 5: coming in off another win against Phoenix. I don't know
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 5: if Dallas is gonna pay that much attention to Portland, though,
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 5: and they're going to a venue they're not familiar with.
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 4: They haven't been here before because Portland's an.
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 5: Expansion team, and Dallas does have to turn around to
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 5: play Vegas in two days on a TV game on
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 5: USA Network, So Dallas does have a little bit of
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 5: a look ahead spot here. So I would slightly lean
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 5: Portland in this one. Let me see a money seems
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 5: like it agrees. Dallas is a minus five and a
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 5: half on the road here a minus six. They're very public.
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 5: It looks like ninety four percent of the ticket. It's
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 5: only ninety two percent of the cash on them. So
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 5: I think I agree with that market read there. I
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 5: would lean I'm agreeing with all the market reads here
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 5: so far. I would lean Portland plus the points there,
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 5: but not strong. In fact, I think my strongest opinion
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 5: is laying the points of Indiana here, but I still
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 5: don't really want to do that. Laying points on the road, yeah,
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 5: a little bit. If he plus Connecticut was actually not
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 5: bad in that last game, like I pointed out, and
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 5: then LA at Phoenix is the last game.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 4: Phoenix is still a team and I think is under
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 4: the radar.
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 5: I think they're better than the record looks they've lost
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 5: two games in a row now, but road games to
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 5: Golden State in Dallas, those are decent teams. The problem
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 5: is Phoenix is are turning home from a long road trip,
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 5: and you know, I don't like that spot. They've been
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 5: away since June third. I don't like it when a
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 5: team returns home from the road. A lot of times
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 5: they struggle, they have home life to get back to whatever.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 5: The last time they were in that spot, they got
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 5: annihilated by Minnesota. All the Minnesota is really good, but
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 5: still this is a negative spot. Generally they do a
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 5: Vegas up next to so possible look ahead, but they
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 5: might stay focused just because they did lose to LA
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 5: the last time they played them, which was at home
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 5: on May twenty first. LA beat them by nine at home,
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 5: So somebody keep in mind there. And if you dig
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 5: into this box score here, I don't think there was
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 5: a ton to really see here. Well, actually the big
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 5: thing was actually yeah there was. The big thing was
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 5: LA hit seven more threes than Phoenix did, so that
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 5: was the big outlier there.
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 4: LA hit almost half of their threes.
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 5: That's probably gonna regress, So that would be the one
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 5: big regression point from that game. Phoenix did out rebound
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 5: them and stuff, although LA led the whole game, but
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 5: I think that was just because they were not missing
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 5: from threes, so that should be a regression point, so
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 5: that would have me looking at Phoenix here. Also the
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 5: fact that Phoenix was a two point favorite or something
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 5: like that in that game and now they're a one
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 5: one and a half point underdog. So based on what
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 5: we've seen out of these teams since then, this line
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 5: has moved like three to three and a halt points.
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 5: Maybe that's a little bit of an over reaction to
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 5: all that, so I think there is some line value
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 5: on Phoenix here.
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 4: But the line might have.
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 5: Moved also because the oddsmakers know the return home spot
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 5: is not good, so I can't play Phoenix in a
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 5: return home spot, man. Even though it does look like
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 5: kind of a little bit of maybe a quick revenge
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 5: angle on Phoenix where LA might regress a little bit.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 5: LA is not really in a bad spot though. They
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 5: just barely got by Seattle, who sucks in their last game,
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 5: so they should probably be focused here coming into this
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 5: game against Phoenix. So the money is indicating on LA
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 5: a little bit, but they are really public. They're like
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 5: a one point favorite basically here right now, ninety tickets,
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 5: ninety four percent of the cash on them. Do with
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 5: that info what you want, man. And by the way,
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 5: I was correct about Toronto covering and the over in
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 5: that game yesterday. Those both hit, but they both barely hit.
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 5: But they did both hit yesterday in that Toronto Washington game.
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 5: So I had those correct in the WNBA. All right, NBA,
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 5: I don't even want to fucking talk about it. San
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 5: Antonio just a historic collapse, man. Like I told you,
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 5: san Antonio's youth is and they're coaching.
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 4: Those are the reasons why they're losing this series.
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 5: If you look at the analytics, like the statistics of
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 5: these games, san Antonio has been the better team in
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 5: three out of the four games so far, and the
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 5: only game where they were not the better team was
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 5: Game two, I believe, which they did lose, yes, but
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 5: that was still pretty close. Statistically, san Antonio has had
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 5: a double digit lead in every game.
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 4: They've had a.
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 5: Double digit lead in the first quarter of every game,
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 5: so they've come out hot in every game. And usually
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 5: when you come out hot and you punch the other
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 5: team in the mouth, usually you can kind of just
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 5: ride that, you know what I mean.
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 4: But they're dude, Like I said, they're just too young.
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 5: Like, I seriously do not think this Knicks team would
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 5: be doing this well against the Thunder.
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 4: I just don't.
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 5: The Thunders have way more experience. They would the Thunder
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 5: would not be collapse, saying like san Antonio. San Antonio
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 5: completely dominated that last game, game four. Like I looked
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 5: at the score. I was at the Primus Show that night.
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 4: I looked at the score.
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 5: I'm like, hell, yeah, san Antonio is gonna win. San
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 5: Antonio was up twenty nine at the fucking half, and
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 5: they were still winning by twenty two in the third quarter,
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 5: and they were winning by at least eighteen when I
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 5: saw it in the fourth quarter.
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 4: How do you blow this game? And then it still
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 4: took some ridiculous shit at the end of the game
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 4: for them to blow it, like some just horrible, horrible.
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 5: Like just you know, just stuff that team, Like teams
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 5: should not make these fundamental mistakes. But again, it's san
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 5: Antonio's really young, so that's part of it. But that
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 5: wasn't even what happened. Like if you watch the very
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 5: end of that game, well, first of all. The Knicks
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 5: got a little bit lucky with the the winning score
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 5: that they had. They were losing by one, and they
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 5: took a three because they were taking a ton of threes.
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 5: Both teams were, which is very stupid on san Antonio
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 5: part the Knicks. The san Antonio took even more, which
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 5: I'll talk about in a minute, which is really dumb.
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 5: The Knicks took that three, missed it, but Annonobe was
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 5: on top of it. He made a really good play
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 5: and was able to get the ball and tip it
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 5: in very I don't know what the word I'm looking
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 5: for is there, but very he was on his toes
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 5: for that.
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 4: I guess, you know, very.
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 5: Smart isn't really the word I'm looking for, but whatever,
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 5: the word I'm looking for is when you're you know,
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 5: like you're understanding everything that's happening around you that you know.
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 5: That was a very very good play for him to
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 5: do that. But yeah, the Knicks took a three on
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 5: that and they missed the three, so san Antonio could
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 5: have easily gotten the rebound on that.
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 4: If they do that, they probably win the game.
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 5: But then even after that, san Antonio has the ball
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 5: with the shot clock turned off, which by the way
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 5: twice in this series.
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 4: That's been the case.
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 5: In two of san Antonio's losses, They've had the ball
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 5: in a game where they were either tied or down
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 5: by one with the final possession. So I had the
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 5: ball with the shot clock turned off, and they didn't
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 5: win either game.
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 4: So that means the coach is not drawing up a
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 4: good play or the team is just making all these mistakes.
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 5: Now, what happened was, so I believe after the Knicks
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 5: took the lead, I believe san Antonio correct me if
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 5: I'm wrong, but I believe they took another shot and missed,
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 5: and then the Knicks missed another shot. I don't remember
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 5: what it was, but what happened was, I know san
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 5: Antonio had the ball with like fourteen seconds left or no, no, no, no,
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 5: this is what it was.
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 4: San Antonio was up one.
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 5: It was before the Knicks had that game winning shot,
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 5: before that happened, because that was with one second left
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 5: and san Antonio couldn't do anything after that. Yeah, that's
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 5: what it was. Before that, san Antonio, this is when
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 5: they had the ball with the shot clock turned off,
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 5: and they allowed the Knicks to get another possession, because
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 5: that's how stupid they are. And it wasn't even one
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 5: of san Antonio's younger guys. It was Aaron Fox. I'm
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 5: pretty sure who made the huge mistake, which was san
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 5: Antonio was up by one and they got the ball back.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 5: If you saw it, the ball.
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 4: Went down towards San Antonio or towards the well the
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 4: Knicks end of the court, like the san Antonio's shooting
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 4: end of the court. Fox got the ball.
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 5: All he has to do is hold onto the ball
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 5: and get fouled, even though I know he's not a
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 5: great free throw shooter, but that's what you do. You
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 5: hold onto the ball or maybe try to look for
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 5: somebody to pass it to really quick. The last thing
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 5: you do is try to lay it in when there
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 5: are guys right behind you. He tried to go for
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 5: the layup and there was a defender right there, and
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 5: that's how the Knicks got the ball back for that
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 5: final possession.
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 4: Absolutely ridiculous, horrible.
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 5: So again, san Antonio is they've been the better team
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 5: in this series and they've thrown the series away with
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 5: all these ridiculous like a historic collapse here, just ridiculous,
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 5: horrible fundamentals down the stretch, blowing double digit leads in
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 5: every game, and in fact, Tonio has had the bigger
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 5: lead in three out of the four games.
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 4: The only one where they didn't was Game.
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 5: Two, which they still led by double digits at that
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 5: in that game. At one point, they were leading ninety
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 5: seven percent of this game. In Game four, won the
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 5: rebound battle, won the turnover battle. The Knicks did go
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 5: to the line a bit more, which I said I
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 5: thought would happen because usually those things flip in each game.
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 5: So that probably does mean san Antonio will get to
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 5: the line more in the game tonight, because usually those
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 5: things keep flip flopping. And then there is a regression
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 5: point from the Knicks here though the Knicks hit fifteen
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 5: threes compared VERSUSI. The Knicks shot forty seven percent from
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 5: three seasons, so san Antonio did hit more threes, but
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 5: that's because they were taking way more of them. So
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 5: the Knicks shooting forty seven percent from three, that should
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 5: regress in this game.
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 4: They should not.
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 5: They're probably not going to hit forty seven percent. Again,
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 5: I mean, that's a pretty big outlier. So that's the
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 5: big outlier from this game. So you'll get this game statistically,
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 5: san Antonio should.
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 4: Have won the game. They were dominating most of the game.
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 5: The big outlier was the three point shooting, which should
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 5: regress on the part of the Knicks. So those things
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 5: would have you looking at san Antonio in the game tonight.
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 5: But I can't do it because of that epic collapse, man.
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 5: Like I pointed out, I gave you guys the Knicks
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 5: as a play after Cleveland collapse like that against the Knicks,
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 5: But that was a little bit of a different story
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 5: because Cleveland was a big underdog and they needed that
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 5: game one to stay in it.
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 4: But it is still similar san Antonio. They had that
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 4: game one, it.
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 5: Would have been a two to two series and san
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 5: Antonio would have had home court back and they would
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 5: have been the favorite in the series. Again, that's how
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 5: close san Antonio was. Like people think the Knicks are
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 5: dominating the series, they are not at all. Uh Yeah,
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 5: that was how close san Antonio was to getting home
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 5: court right back. And the games that they lost otherwise
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 5: were that close too. So and san Antonio has been
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 5: good enough defensively in this series that, like I said,
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 5: the Knicks have put up some of their low point
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 5: totals throughout the entire playoffs all in this series, and
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 5: the game where the Knicks put up the higher point
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 5: total they lost. So some things to consider here that
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 5: san Antonio has not been as bad as people think
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 5: in the series has been. Fundamentals and coaching have been
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 5: the huge issues for them though, and just the youth
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 5: on the team. So yeah, but after that happened, I
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 5: just don't know that they're gonna be able to bounce back,
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 5: and that's the problem. So looking at the money here,
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 5: I still I gotta get to World CP and then
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 5: the show will finally be finished. The money is backing
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 5: the Spurs here at minus five and a half. They're
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 5: laying the same amount of points they were in the
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 5: other home games. Basically sixty four percent of tickets on
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 5: the Knicks. The public will be on the Knicks as
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 5: they have been all serious. Another thing that pisses me
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 5: off because usually public underdogs don't win, usually sixty two
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on San Antonio. So the money
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 5: is coming in on San Antonio. And I guess there
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 5: is one other thing to consider where maybe the Knicks
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 5: have this mindset where you know, maybe they get a
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 5: little bit cocky being up three to one and think
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 5: you know, all right, well, the games, the series is
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 5: going to be over anyway. Maybe in the back of
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 5: their mind, maybe they do kind of want to clinch
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 5: at home, you know what I mean, in game six,
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 5: So maybe they kind of want a Game six, even
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 5: though if they lose this game, you know, it's like
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 5: San Antonio is kind of hanging around if they win
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 5: this game tonight and they are favored to do so,
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 5: so obviously I hope it happens, but I have no
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 5: faith in San Antonio at this point at all. If
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 5: they had tied it to too, I'd be feeling pretty good.
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 5: I was feeling good about that, just absolutely. It's inexplicable.
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 4: Man. You can you cannot have a historic collapse.
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 5: It was the worst collapse in playoff history, and I
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 5: think there were some metrics that have it as the
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 5: worst collapse in NBA history. I think I forget what
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 5: those metrics were.
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 4: Oh.
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 5: I think one of the things was San Antonio scored
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 5: seventy six points in the verse half, I think, and
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 5: twenty nine in the second half. That's never happened before
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 5: in NBA history, regular season or postseason.
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 4: No team has ever.
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 5: Scored I think what it was was like seventy something
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 5: or more points in the first half and then failed
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 5: to reach thirty points in the second half. San Antonio
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 5: is the only team to ever do that. It's unbelievable,
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 5: absolutely unbelievable. But anyway, uh total in this game is
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 5: right around the same number two that it has been
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 5: all Series two sixteen and a half. Do without what
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 5: you want. The money is backing the over fifty one
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 5: percent of tickets, seventy percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 5: I'm not sure about that because these teams have an
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 5: extra day off here and that can help the deepfense
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 5: and kind of cool off the offense a little bit.
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 5: So I'm not sure about the over in this one.
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 5: I might slightly disagree with that, I might slightly lean under.
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 4: But it's all gonna depend on san Antonio.
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 5: Like everything about this game depends on what their mindset is, Like,
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 5: are they just gonna cave after that blew, like after
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 5: they collapsed epically in Game four?
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 4: Are they just gonna show up and have nothing left here?
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 5: Because if that's the case, then an over might make
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 5: more sense because they're not gonna be playing good deepfense,
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 5: and if that's the case, then the Knicks makes sense.
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 4: But if that's not.
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 5: Gonna be the case, and you want to just look
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 5: at how the game, how the series has played out statistically,
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 5: then san Antonio makes sense in this game in some ways,
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 5: and maybe an under makes a little bit more sense.
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 5: So I don't know, man, uh do with that infot
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 5: what you want? I guess, like I always say, uh.
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 5: But also if san Antonio does just pack it in
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 5: though here the over makes more sense probably in like
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 5: a first half capacity, if that's gonna be the case,
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 5: because when you get later in the game, if it's
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 5: like a blowout or something. Although I don't know, none
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 5: of the games of this none of the games in
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 5: this series have been a blowout except Game four should
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 5: have been a san Antonio blowout, but all the other
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 5: games in the series have been close ish, So yeah,
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 5: I mean, but if it is going to be a blowout,
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 5: you know, it might mean that san Antonio is getting
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 5: blown out because they just have packed it in. And
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 5: if that's the case, then maybe the pace slows down
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 5: and that does that would worry me a little bit
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 5: about an over later in the game. But yeah, those
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 5: are my thoughts on the game, all right, And then
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 5: we have a World Cup here. The Knicks rioting is
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 5: absolute fucking bullshit. Their fan base is the most disgusting
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 5: fan base in sports. Probably they're throwing eggs at wembin Yama.
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 5: Totally unacceptable. After you're up.
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 4: Three to one, you basically won the series.
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 5: You're gonna do that fuck off just because he committed
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 5: a flagrant foul that wasn't called in one of the games.
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 5: As if the Knicks players haven't done similar shit, Like
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 5: give me a break, especially like the Knicks of like
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 5: the nineties and whatever. Come on, and yeah, they're rioting.
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 5: They're beating up people just for having spurs uniforms on.
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 5: But after they won, they're like they're going into like
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 5: fast food restaurants and destroying the restaurants. Fuck you, dude,
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 5: Like that's a business that somebody's running. This fan base
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 5: deserves absolutely nothing. This fan base deserves nothing, and they're
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 5: gonna get a Knicks championship and a Yankees championship. Probably
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 5: they can all get fucked yeah, correct, yeah, all right. Uh, obviously,
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 5: any team that has a lead like that, like again,
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 5: I don't think it's even happened before. I mean, a
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 5: lead of that capacity has been blown before in a
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 5: regular season game before, never in the postseason. It's one
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 5: of the most epic collapses ever, Like it's up there
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 5: with Atlanta Falcons collapsing and throwing the Super Bowl, which
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 5: I was pissed about because I was not a fan
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 5: of Tom Brady or Bill Belichick. And then the other one,
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 5: the big one in football that nobody really talks about
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 5: because it's because nobody is old enough to remember it now.
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 5: But in the nineties, the Buffalo Bills had the biggest
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 5: co back ever and it was with Jim Kelly injured
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 5: Frank Reich, the coach of the Colts for a while,
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 5: Frank Reich was the quarterback for the Bills there.
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 4: He was Kelly's backup. He came in and led them
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 4: to whatever it was.
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 5: What were they down forty points in that game against
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 5: the Houston Oilers and they won the game. It's the
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 5: most famous NFL playoff comeback ever, but people don't talk
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 5: about it anymore.
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 4: But anyway, all right, we.
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 5: Have three World Cup games here. They're all in the
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 5: US in various locations. The first game in the afternoon
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 5: is in California in Santa Clara. It's at Levi Stadium,
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 5: which is the San Francisco forty nine Ers Stadium. It's
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 5: cutter and Switzerland in whatever the fuck group this is.
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 5: I think Switzerland is the best team in this group.
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 5: I think I forget who's in this group.
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Switzerland's a huge favorite. Minus four seventy five.
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 4: They should win.
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 5: I don't really think there's a whole lot to talk
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 5: about here. I don't, Yeah, I just nothing on this game. Basically,
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 5: Switzerland is a huge favorite. Okay, there you go, you know.
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 5: I mean, some guys might find ways to maybe look
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 5: at totals here. Like I said, I think a lot
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 5: of these totals are going under in these early games,
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 5: or you have a tendency to go a bit under
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 5: because these teams just haven't played for a while.
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 4: The next games are a little bit more interesting.
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 5: In East Rutherford, New Jersey, which is met Life Stadium,
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 5: which is the Jets and Giants Stadium, Brazil is playing Morocco.
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 5: Brazil is always considered to be one of these, you know,
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 5: upper rational on teams, and yeah, they're one of the
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 5: top like five teams probably as far as the odds
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 5: are concerned. But they're not, as you know, they're not
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 5: as good as they usually are. I think like people
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 5: would tend to think that they're probably one of the top,
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 5: like maybe two or three teams in the odds, So
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 5: that's not the case.
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 4: They're like fifth or six.
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 5: And they won like the probably the the World Cup
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 5: that everybody's talking about, the World Cup in the US
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 5: in ninety four because they're all these documentaries about it.
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 5: The OJ thing was going on at the same time,
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 5: and the.
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 4: Knicks being in the finals.
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 5: That was the last time they had a lead in
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 5: an NBA finals before they blew it against the Houston Rockets.
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 5: They blew it against the Texas team, but they were
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 5: They were winning that series three to two, not three
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 5: to one, and Houston had already I believe Houston had.
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 5: Oh no, Houston won the championship that year and then
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 5: Houston lost to the Bulls the next year. I think
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 5: that Houston team had a chem Elijah On and some
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 5: other experienced players though anyway, at least I think he
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 5: was a pretty experienced at that point.
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 4: But anyway, Yeah, Brazil won that World Cup.
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 5: That year, by the way, the one in the US
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 5: in ninety four, so people might be thinking about that.
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 5: I think Brazil might be a little bit overvalued here,
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 5: so I kind of like Morocco to maybe hang around
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 5: in this one. Morocco is not a bad team, and
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 5: they made some noise in some World Cups recently, so
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 5: that might be the way that I would lean in
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 5: this one. Brazil's only a minus forty five favorite on
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 5: the three way line, which doesn't mean they're the better team,
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 5: but it doesn't mean that it's insurmountable. And I think
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 5: what that means is you can take Morocco at probably
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 5: around plus one fifteen or so on the win or draw.
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 5: So if they win or it's a draw, you'd win
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 5: that bet. You can get that at probably about plus
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 5: one fifteen or so. That might be the way I
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 5: would lean. I know I was wrong last night about
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 5: the the US game, and by the way, the Canada game,
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 5: I should have looked into it more because Canada, by
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 5: the way, I believe they wound up winning the game yesterday,
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 5: right did they or I forget did they win?
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 4: It was a draw? My mistake, It was a draw.
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 5: Canada they were I believe they were own six in
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 5: World Cup player or something like that. Canada had lost
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 5: every one of the World Cup matchups, I'm pretty sure,
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 5: so I did not realize that although playing in Canada
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 5: is a little bit of a different story though, but
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 5: that also kind of means that the public would not
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 5: really want Canada. So anyway, whatever, And then this final game,
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 5: Boston is being infiltrated by the Scots for this, which
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 5: I think is actually fun. It's better than what we
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 5: usually have, is the infiltration that is usually happening in Boston.
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 5: I'll take the Scots any day, man playing their bagpipes
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 5: and getting drunk and whatever.
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 4: I like these guys. One of the dudes that's.
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 5: Over here from Scotland is like famous because he went
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 5: viral for talking about the food and the culture in
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 5: Boston and New York and whatever. He got on Fox
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 5: News because I guess he's a conservative or something as well.
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 5: And now he's back in Boston. I assumed to go
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 5: to this game in Gillette Stadium or my apologies, Boston Stadium,
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 5: because FIFA forces you to rename the stadium to something
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 5: that is the city that you're playing near, because this
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 5: is not even in Boston. It's in Foxborough, where the
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 5: Patriots play, which is like a half an hour outside
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 5: of Boston.
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 4: But whatever.
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 5: Haiti is playing Scotland here. Both teams they think are
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 5: gonna have some decent crowd supporting this one.
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 5: The Scotts have taken over. Like I said, there is
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 5: some Haitian support in the area as well. Scotland's the
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 5: better team though they're minus one ninety and Scotland has
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 5: not been in a World Cup since like thirty years
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 5: ago or something. Because there's a lot of hype around
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 5: Scotland here, which maybe means they're favored by a little
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 5: bit too much. But I'm rooting for them, man, I like,
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 5: I like what's going on with the I like these guys.
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 5: It's like it's Braveheart is coming, is coming to town here.
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 4: Man. I don't know. I don't know what I would
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 4: do with this game though.
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 5: I don't think i'd want to lay minus one ninety
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 5: with Scotland though on the money line.
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 4: But I'm hoping they win the game.
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 5: I'm not sure they really will though, but Osmaker's telling
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 5: you they're the better.
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 4: Teams, so they go.
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 5: All these games are on Fox and Peak Awck and
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 5: whatever the hell Telly is, Like I said yesterday, so do.
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 4: With all that info what you want. But I don't know.
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 5: I might wind up giving out some World Cup plays,
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 5: but not in these opening games. I mean, I don't
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 5: know about it, but I can use like, you know,
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 5: you could fade some things that happened in like the
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 5: first games or whatever and find some situations that'll set
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 5: up later along. So maybe I will give out some
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 5: plays but not happening yet. So but yes, schost Scotts,
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 5: that's what I will say here. I'll probably root for
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 5: Morocco to I don't know. I just Brazil.
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 5: They just always seem overhyped and they always seem like
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 5: real flop artists. So I'm not really a huge fan
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 5: of them either, you know whatever. All Right, that's gonna
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 5: do it. I got nothing else to really talk about it.
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 5: I don't think I thought I was gonna mention one
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 5: other thing about.
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 4: Oh, Scotland. Yeah.
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 5: The other thing that's kind of weird is that you
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 5: have these like teams in the World Cup, Like FIFA
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 5: recognizes different countries that aren't really countries because uh, the
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 5: Scotland exit didn't happen, man Skexit or whatever didn't happen.
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 5: But Scotland and England have different teams that are both
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 5: in the World Cup here, so I was like, oh,
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 5: that's weird because they're both part of the UK. And
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 5: then you have like, I don't know, like Curasaws in
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 5: this thing, and I'm like, not a country, right, I
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 5: don't know whatever, some weird stuff in the World Cup.
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 5: But and then of course there are countries that are
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 5: banned from it, which is also really stupid.
• 1:57:10
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 5: And by the way, that only started happening, like Russia
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 5: only started not being allowed around like twenty sixteen because
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 5: of Russia Gate. That's how fucking stupid. That is total bullshit.
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 5: Russia Gate a total hoax. I'm not gonna get my
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 5: show banned, but I think that's just common knowledge now,
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 5: like just everybody pretty much accepts that, except for the
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 5: most insane people that just deny reality. Anyway, that's gonna
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 5: do it. My plays today are in baseball, both of them.
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 5: They are the under in the Red Sox game Rangers
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 5: Red Sox under eight and Kansas City Royals money line
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 5: first five around minus one thirty five. Those are the
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 5: only plays I got today.
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 4: That's gonna do it. Have a good day.
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 5: Everyone gonna be in search of some lunch shortly. We
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 5: need to get back on track here. Things not going
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 5: well right now. Let's get some Wednesday. I'd love to
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 5: go to and oh here with these that's gonna do it.
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 5: Learn it tone on Twitter, Learn it tone on Instagram,
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 5: like subscribe to this channel here, listen on audio Apple, Spotify,
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 5: covered in Yuke on YouTube. I gotta get back to it.
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 5: My voice is hurting right now. I'm beginning possibly creating
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 5: another Yuke album here, which this one is gonna be
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 5: sort of based off of random life events. Is kind
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 5: of my idea right now. But although most of my
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 5: songs kind of are that anyway, So I don't know.
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 5: We'll see, but I'm starting to kind of mess around
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 5: with that. We'll see about that. Patreon dot com slash
• 1:58:39
  Speaker 5: learn to Tone. If you want to throw me some
• 1:58:41
  Speaker 5: extra support, maybe I'll I might drop some of the
• 1:58:45
  Speaker 5: songs that I'm working on as like early content maybe
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 5: for Twitter subscriber content and maybe Patreon stuff as well.
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 5: Maybe that's how I'll do it, got to think about it.
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 5: Loser casts every Tuesday night and Giants g Spot podcasts
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 5: are the other things that I do right now.
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 4: That's gonna do it.
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 1: Peace, but don't you go quiet don't you fade from
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 1: the floor, your name, steal me something to somebody for show.
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby, look at me. Now, hold on,
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 1: hold on nothing.
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 3: Nice, now, hold on, hold on. Let me pull you.
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 3: That bites hard, but it don't.
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 2: Get the crown.
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on and stay with me now