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NBA + NFL Christmas Best Bets Thursday 12/25/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside I want to kill myself. We are on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Oh
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: and four that have not had a good season. Man
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I've reached into pink.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat man, I
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: don't know what is going on with the bruins arch hape?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what data is anymore. I'm not I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: well for me.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this, I don't know what to
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's Toad back with you. It's toadstool Sports.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: Merry Christmas, everybody, mister Pitsy, why are you not with family?
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Man?
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: Why why is everybody watching my show early in the morning. Here,
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: I gotta try to make this quick and get out
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: of here.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Merry Christmas. I'm gonna I'm gonna give you a stocking
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: stuffer here.
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: I got one play out of out of all the
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: games today, there are not many, but we're gonna talk
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: about them. We got the five NBA games on Slate today,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: not including my boss as.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Celtics, which I don't know. My dad yesterday said that
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: the Celtics this is the first time, like I guess
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: since they've been doing this or something, that the Celtics
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: haven't had a Christmas game. I'm not sure if that's
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: right or not.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: I thought that they didn't have one last year, but
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: maybe I'm wrong about that or one of these recent years.
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: The Hawaii Bowl was crazy last night. I don't know
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: if people were actually watching it, but it was. It
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: was an entertaining game. They came back from down twenty
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: one to nothing. It was the largest comeback in Hawaii
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Bowl history.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: They looked like they were still going to lose. The
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: game was back and forth.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: After they had tied it, they went back and forth,
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: fell behind again, and then they had a last minute
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: drive all the way down the field and their quarterback
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: went all out.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: He had a play where he ran for a first
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: down on like third and long. Then he had another
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: play where he passed for another play of another first
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: down on a third down plane he got nailed and
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: he got knocked out of the game. So it came
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: down to like sixteen seconds left. They were down four.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: Backup quarterback has to come in and he just chucks
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: it for the end zone.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Not chucks it.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: I mean it was a good pass, but they just
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: went for the touchdown. He aired it out and it
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: was and they got it a touchdown. Crazy backup quarterback
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: comes in just wins the ball.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Oh man.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: I mean that was not one that I had a
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: whole lot of stake in yesterday, although I did I
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: did actually wind up picking Hawaii in my ball entries,
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: so but like extremely low confidence value on the on
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: the straight up one.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: And the only one of the main reasons I had
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: them in the spread.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: Game was because ESPN had them at three and a
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: half and it was like Hawaii plus three and a half.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: I'm like, well, I have to just go with the
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: value here, all right, let's go to today. I'm gonna
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: give you one play here out of these games. It
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: is in the NBA. People probably already know what it
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: is to be honest, if you know how I do things,
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: and it's a game that has already mentioned on my show.
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: I think Jeffrey might have pointed out that this is
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: gonna be a spot to do it, and we're doing it.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: NBA.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: We have noontime all these games around ABC and ESPN.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: It's a quintuple header on ESPN. Cleveland and the New
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: York Knicks are the first game up.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Cleveland.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, I keep saying they're better than the record looks.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, they just haven't been a completely healthy roster.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: I know they are still missing some of their guys,
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Like I believe They're still missing Evan Mobley, so they're
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: missing one of their guys that's in the middle there.
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: But the Knicks are not really a team that is
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: like a dominant size team. Cleveland coming into this off
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: two wins, so they do have some momentum coming into this.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: They just crush New Orleans, who cares, you know, they're
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: gonna show up for this game. They gotta go to
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: Madison Square Garden though, and try to win this thing
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: as an underdog. But dealing with the spread, can they cover?
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think they can. The knixt spot, I
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: think is a little bit more strange, as they had
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: a nice win over Miami then they had to go
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: to Minnesota. They lost the game to Minnesota, but difficult
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: spot having to go travel to Minnesota and then come
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: back for this game. Although debatably they were looking ahead
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: to this game and not caring as much about a
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: Western Conference team. Then Minnesota is starting to show the
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: ability to beat winning teams, So there is that. I mean, overall,
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: in this game, I think I would have to hm,
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think I would lean towards taking the
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: points with Cleveland. Here, the Knicks are already up to
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: a five and a half point favorite here, which I
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: guess you gotta look at what's going on with the personnel,
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: and the total shot up like eleven points to two
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: forty and a half. So I don't know exactly what's
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: going on here. If there's some defender who's injured for
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: the Cavs, I'm gonna look at that in a second.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Sixty eight percent of tickets, seventy four percent of the
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: cash on the Knicks. I mean, if I was gonna
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: play it again, I think I would have to take
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: the points.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: But this is obviously not the play that I have
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: in mind. Here. Let me see, uh looking at the
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: injury report real quick.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: Here, it's still Mobily. He might actually come back game
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: time decision. Maybe he comes back as a Christmas present.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: The Knicks are still gonna be without Miles McBride, but
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: other than that, and then Strews and Nance have both
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: been out for a while for the Calves, but the
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: teams are intact it seems like otherwise, So I don't know.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: The one thing you do have to worry about, though,
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: the Knicks are awesome at home at fourteen and two,
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: so you know it's not gonna take that much if
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: they win, they're probably gonna cover, but you are still
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: getting that little bit of leeway there at the line.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Being up like that.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: We did successfully fade the Knicks in one of their
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: recent home games, so there is some precedent for them
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: to potentially not do as well at home. The next
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: game up is the game that I actually have to
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: play in. We're gonna lay the points with the thunder.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: Everybody's you know, if you watch the Talking Heads or whatever,
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: Kendrick Perkins, whatever, they're all out there talking about how
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: San Antonio is gonna December sweep Oklahoma City.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, Oklahoma.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: City can't beat the Spurs whatever, even though I think
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: they already did beat them once earlier this year. I'm
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: not gonna buy that this is a zigzag spot. I
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: think this is the play to make on the day
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: in the afternoon, two thirty pm Eastern, So you know,
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: the game will happen now while you're celebrated Christmas with
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: family hopefully whatever. But San Antonio, they just beat Oklahoma
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: City and they beat them by twenty in San Antonio
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: back on Tuesday. You know, I talk about the zigzag man,
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: and the thing about the zigzag if you get an
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: outlier result in one game, and then those two teams
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: play each other again, usually the team that was on
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: the wrong end of it. They're gonna fix some things
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: and make some adjustments. I mean, we know this is
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: not exactly what these teams are. Yes, san Antonio is good,
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma City is still dominant. They're really really dominant at home,
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: which I'll talk about in a minute. But this, I mean,
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: it's an outlier result. Man, Oklahoma City. That game was
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: really close, like almost it was close into the second half,
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: and then san Antonio started pulling away at home. But
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: the game was like completely back and forth for more
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: than a half of it. So it's not like san
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: Antonio really got annihilated in that game.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: It looks bad on the scoreboard.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: And then one of the other things that you have
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: to notice when you look at the box score, the
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: biggest discrepancy here that I don't think is going to
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: happen again was the free throws. The free throw disparity
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: was ridiculous.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: In this game. You had twenty four free throw.
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: Attempts from San Antonio and seven from Oklahoma City. That's
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: not going to happen again. In Okay Seeman and Okay
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: See also lost the turnover battle fifteen to nine, but
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: they did win the rebmounting battle, So again, this it
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: almost seemed like it was some NBA kind of rigging
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: going on there, with san Antonio going to the free
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: throw lined out often. If anything, I expect a Thunder'd
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: probably be the team to get more free throw attempts
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: in this one because they are at home.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you get the benefit of the calls at home.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: Usually the home team wins the turnover battle, So I
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: think we're gonna see a lot of these things up flip.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: Other than that, both teams shot well in the game,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: so not a whole lot to see there. They both
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: had a similar amount of possessions, a few more threes
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: out of the spurs, which you know, you might see
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: that kind of flip as well. Though Okay, See is
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: not exactly a team that just reins it from three
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: Heart and Seeing and Holme were both questionable coming into
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: that game, and they did both play. But again, I
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: think they're both gonna play again here. I mean, I
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: think everything is alright as far as that's concerned. There's
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: nothing to really see on the injury report here. The
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: lesser of the two Jalen Williams is on the injury
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: report for U okay See. But other than that, yeah,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: we're not really looking at a whole lot here. And
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: then I don't even see why is there no injury
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: I guess san Antonio has nobody on the injury report whatever.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: The other thing is that I think okay See is
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: gonna have to adjust to is now two times in
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: a row, san Antonio of course beat okay See out
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: in vag I guess they haven't beaten them mid Oklahoma City,
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: though they beat them in Vegas and in San Antonio,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: and both times san Antonio brought Wemby off of the bench.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: So if they're gonna do that again, you gotta think
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma City is gonna make some adjustments to that.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: And they tried to in the last game, and.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: It was less effective because the first time they didn't
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: realize that was gonna happen. So he had Wemby going
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: up against their backups. Okay See's bench is pretty deep, though,
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: but he had like a ridiculous like plus minus in
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: the game. Like I think he was like plus minus
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: thirty in that first game.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: It wasn't as extreme in this most recent game.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: It was like plus thirteen or something, So, okay se,
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: he's gonna have to do something to adjust to him
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: coming in off the bench against their backups.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: But you gotta think that, okay see.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: I mean they have to start taking control of the
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: game while Wemby is not in there, and okay see,
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: as their starters up against uh, the Wemby list San
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Antonio lineup that's out there, So I think they're gonna
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: make the adjustments. You know, are people are not gonna
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: on to lay points with okay see at this point.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: But also, this line is really short too. Okay see,
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: was laying ten and a half in a neutral site
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: at Las Vegas the last time they played, well, the
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: two times ago that they played, and then they were
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: laying I think eight or so at San Antonio. Now
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: they're only laying nine here when really this line should
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: probably be about twelve if you think all those other
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: lines are accurate. So I think there is line value here,
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: believe it or not. On Oklahoma City as well. Here
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: I believe they did still win against San Antonio at
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: home earlier this year. If I'm not mistaken, I could
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: be wrong about that. Hold on, let me see, am
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: I wrong? About that, I guess I am yeah san Antonio. Yeah, Okay,
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: SE's owned two against san Antonio, so I'm wrong about that.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: But they are fourteen to know at home. I think
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: they're gonna do it. I think they're gonna win and
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: cover man. And then if you look at the market
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: read here looks like a huge pros versus joe scenario.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Here, the joe's the public. They like what they saw last.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: They're gonna look at this and think, no way, the
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: Thunder we're gonna win by margin when they haven't won
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: it all against San Antonio. Fifty five percent of tickets
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: on the Spurs. They're the hot commodity right now. Sixty
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: four percent of the cash though are the professional guys,
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: and like me, they you know, they're not gonna They're not.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Gonna weigh these two results too heavily.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: Here, we're gonna lay the points with the Thunder hopefully
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: gets still find the nine, nine and a half yere.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: I think it's still out there. I mean ten, even ten,
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: I think there is still value in it. It's not
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: a key number in basketball, So OKAC is.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: The one play?
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: Okay, Then we got a Dallas at Golden State at
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: five pm, Dallas. The MAVs are coming off a big
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: win over Denver. Man, so there is some potential letdown here,
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: which sounds weird. They go, could there really be a
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: letdown spot when you get to play Steph Curry and
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: Golden State on ABC on Christmas on ESPN?
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Maybe? I mean beating Denver is huge, Dude.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: That was a game where Dallas was a sizable underdog.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: I would imagine at home.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: Now they're going to Golden State here, so they've got
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: to travel out to the West coast.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: At least for them, it's not a late night game.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: But I don't know, man, because Golden State they've been
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: they're kind of the team where everybody's just talking about
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: how they're a die, like a dying dynasty. Basically, they
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: might get a little bit motivated from this. Dallas is
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: not good on the road three and nine. Golden State
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: has been much better at home. Nine to four, Dallas.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: They're gonna show up for Christmas games, yes, but they're
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: gonna have to put in this huge effort two games
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: in a row, man, and that I kind of worry about.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: And then, of course, as always the NBA, you gotta
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: look at the injury report. Looks like we're looking at PJ.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Washington game time decision, Klay Thompson game time decision for Dallas.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Al Horford game time decision for Golden State. The more
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: important Curry is obviously playing his brother is her, I guess,
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: but that's not really gonna impact. So those injuries are
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: not hugely impactful to this game. And as far as
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: Golden State is concerned, they're coming off a couple of wins.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: They did an easy win over Orlando last time, but.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna be overconfident coming into this
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: game here. Yeah, they've had a couple of days off,
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: which could maybe hurt their momentum because they do have
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: two wins in a row, but they're gonna show up
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: for a home game on Christmas, man, So overall, I
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: would lean to the Warriors in this one. They're also
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: an anti public favorite. The public's coming in on Dallas
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: sixty five percent of the tickets on them, fifty one
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash, So you know, I like these
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: anti public favorites were for some reason, the Warriors are
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: going to be four and a half and now they're eight,
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if maybe there was some injury
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: concerned with the Warriors. But now whoever it is, I
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: don't know if it's Curry or what, but now whoever
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: it is is obviously playing the public is never going
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: to come in lay eight points where the team is
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: sitting at five hundred men. They're just not going to
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: do that. But the osbeggers are still telling you what
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: you should think here that the Warriors, they're at home,
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: there's still the better team over the over the MAVs.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: That really just I still don't think the MAVs have
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: totally figured it out. MAVs could still be in kind
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: of a letdown spot as well as weird as that
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: sounds of a beating Denver. So yeah, you're fading the
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: public and getting a decent team at home by laying
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: it here. So I think the Warriors are the move
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: in that game. Jeffrey, what's up?
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Yes? You did? That is a game where I do
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: not have much of an opinion on it at all.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: Slightly towards taking the points with the Calves for me,
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: but I have nothing on that game.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I love the Thunder. The Thunder on my one
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: play today. I do like the Warriors as well, if
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: I was going to play a second game, it probably
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: would be laying it with the Warriors. So I like
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: these home favorites today in some of these games, Houston
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: at LA, at the Lakers, of course, Clippers, the Clippers
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: are not going to get to play on Christmas.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: Houston's coming off losing to those Clippers by twenty point,
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: so they could have been looking ahead to this.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, Houston is obviously not as bad as that,
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: and they've looked bad recently, losing four out of five games.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Here, but one of them was to Denver.
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: One of them was in a sandwich spot between two
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: games against Denver, and then one was in a letdown
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: spot after facing Denver again. And by the way, we
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: got two wins out of that on the show with
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: New Orleans and Sacramento. Two of my huge underdog outright wins.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Were those games.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: So Houston was just in bad spots in those games.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: Now in those games, now they're coming out a horrendous
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: loss to LA. They're already in LA to the Clippers again.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: I should say, I again think they were looking ahead.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: They're obviously nowhere near as bad as that. You know
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: you're gonna get an effort out of Houston here playing
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: the Lakers on Christmas.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Lakers coming into this thing.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: They just suffered a pretty ugly loss to to the
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: Phoenix Suns, losing one hundred and thirty two and one
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: hundred and eight.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: That is bad.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: They're turning over from a road trip though, and you
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: know I talk about this when a team returns home
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: a lot of times it could be a bit of
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: a distraction. I don't think they're gonna overlook Houston on
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: Christmas though. And the other thing that kind of negates
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: the road trip a little bit is they were in
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: LA on December twenty to play the Clippers. So really
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: they just had one single game on the road at
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: Phoenix and they just didn't pay attention to it. But
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: the home distraction still could be in play here. I mean,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: when it's Christmas time at home sometimes it is still
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a distraction.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: I know.
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: My one play I gave out was the home team
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: in the Thunder game. Oh yeah, Luca, Yeah, we got
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: to talk about that, Luca. I think he did miss
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: the last game as well. I think Luca was out
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: for that game against Phoenix, So Houston would be the
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: side that I would side with in this game though,
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: I'll plus the points or whatever. It's gonna be here, Yeah,
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: especially if it is Luca coming back, because you know,
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: I talk about the injured player theory spot here. Now
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: you gotta worry about us Sengoon a.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: Little bit here. However, he pronounce his name.
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: One of the better players for the Rockets, the big man.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: If he can go, you know he's gonna play against
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: the Lakers on Christmas. He's listed his game time decision
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: right now. Luca still listened as the game time decision.
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: So is Hotchi Morim. They both missed time recently. But
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: for Luca correct he did not play after the Clippers game,
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: so it will be his return, So you know that's.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: A reverse injured player spot.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: He's questionable, questionable, but I think he will play in
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: this game. And for Ruey here Hachi Moram, he is playing,
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: he's probable.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: He played.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: He hasn't played since the eighteenth, So you're gonna be
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: looking at maybe a reverse injured player spot here for
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: the Lakers, but mostly because of.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Luca coming back.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: If he does with him, maybe he's not going to
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: because the Rockets a flip from a two and a
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: half point dog to.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: A two and a half point favorite here.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: You got to think that with Luca playing, the Lakers
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: would be a small favorite here. So it almost seems
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: like Luca's not playing in this game. This is a
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: game you gotta like, look like, watch watch the injury report.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: I guess because it's gonna be the game's gonna be
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: at eight pm Eastern. We have fifty four percent of tickets,
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: eighty three percent of the cash coming in on the Lakers.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: I kind of disagree with it.
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: But if Luca doesn't come back, you know, I mean,
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: I actually would kind of not love the Rockets as
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: much because they're gonna have to lay points on the road.
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: If Luca comes back and you get the Rockets as
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: a dog, I think that is the way to look.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: And then again the reverse Edgur of player spot And
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: you know what I always say about that when the
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: star player comes back, the line has to adjust, and
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: it usually overadjusts to that star player coming back. The
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: team could kind of take their foot off the gas
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: a little bit, although there wasn't much gas in that
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: horrible loss against Phoenix, So I think the Lakers are
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: gonna show up anyway though, So it's It's a tough
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: game to handicap, for sure. There are a lot of
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: moving parts here, mostly the Luca thing though, But still
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: I think there will be some value on Houston if
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: Luca does come back, and then he still has to
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: get himself back into the game and the team has
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: to readjust and whatever.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, tentatively, if Luca returns, I would
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: lean towards taking the points with Houston, which I know
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: sounds counterintuitive, but it's a tough game. Man, Tyson, what's up? Tyson? Chicken?
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: You change your name because I mentioned the chicken? What's up? Man?
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: Minnesota at Denver is the last game, the late game,
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: ten to thirty pm Eastern on this one. Minnesota is
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: coming off a nice win over the New York Knicks. Man,
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: is it gonna be a Is it gonna be a
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: letdown spot here?
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: Probably not.
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: I mean it's still a big deal to have to
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: go to Denver, Man, where.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: These teams have already played twice this year.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: I think at Denver's two and zero, Denver one by
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: thirteen at Minnesota, and then by eleven also at Minnesota.
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: So Denver's won twice at Minnesota already. Minnesota coming into
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: this one off of the win over the Knicks that
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: is a big win. Have to go into elevation here.
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: Maybe kind of a difficult spot, to be honest, And
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: I keep pointing out on Minnesota hasn't been great against
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: winning teams this year.
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: They haven't been good against Denver.
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: Although people are gonna see that and maybe read too
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: much into that, but Denver's coming off a bad loss
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: at Dallas where it was just I think kind of
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: a weird spot. Oh, we have to go play Dallas
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: before we have to celebrate Christmas and play the Christmas game.
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: Could have been a bit of a look ahead there too.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: I think Denver shows up for this one. I know
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: they haven't been that good at home nine to five.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is good on the road at eight and five,
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: But I kind of like Denver in this one if
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: I was gonna play it.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: Injury report, we don't have a whole lot going on.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: Of course, Aaron Gordon's been out for a long time,
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: but no change really on Minnesota has McDaniels listed as
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: a game time decision, but for the most part, it's
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: a clean handicap in this one. Although the line has
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: dropped from the Nuggets being a five point favorite to
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: a two point favorite, which seems to indicate that maybe
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: there was some injury on the Tea Wools side. That
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: no longer is the case here, because it looks like
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: basically everybody's gonna be playing sixty four percent of the ticket.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: It's an only fifty nine percent of the cash on
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: the Nuggets. I don't really see that as far as
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: the handicap is concerned there. I would lean slightly to
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: the Nuggets in that one, but not strong. All right,
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: let's go to NFL. These NFL games.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: Are absolutely hideous, dude.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: Like it's gonna be really hard for me to find
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: games that I actually want to play in the NFL
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: this week, and I'm not gonna do it today, and
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: I have to somehow find five to put in my
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: money ENTRYM I pick five, which is falling apart right now.
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: This is not good, dude. I'm still in the money
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: right now. But these games are just unbelievable, dude. You
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: have a third string quarterback playing in all three games
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: on one of the sides, which is actually the home team,
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: and all three of them.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: You have.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: One team that has a very very slim chance to
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs in the second game, and then you
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: have one team that's already in the playoffs in the
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: last game that really is only fighting for the one seed.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: So the first game up has no playoff implications. So
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: great to the NFL for.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Scheduling these games.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: Netflix has the first two games, and then I guess
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: Amazon Prime has because it's a Thursday night game. Oh god,
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: mister Thursday Night.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: Oh my god.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: No, but yeah, so we do have a Thursday night
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: game tonight. Technically we had one on Chris Thanksgiving, and
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: now we have one on Christmas.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: I think. Anyway, Dallas at Washington is the.
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: First game up, and it is the game that means
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: the least because both teams are out of the playoffs.
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: Dallas coming off that horrendous loss they lost for us,
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: it was a play that I gave out. I thought
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: it was like a last gas for Dallas. I thought
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: they would show up, even though they I think they
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: actually were already eliminated by the Eagles winning the day
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: before that or whatever. So but still I thought Dallas
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: could just play looser.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: The Chargers were.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: In a horrible spot in that one. Dallas still had
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: an awful game. Now will they bounce back. I don't know,
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: because Dallas is having to go on the road and
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: play outside in Washington where it's well, I guess it's
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: not gonna be that cold of fifty one degrees, but still,
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: do you think Dallas is going to be that motivated
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: to do what? I mean? Maybe because it's an isolated
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: Netflix game, But I don't know. Man, for Washington, Washington
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: just lost to Philadelphia. They do have extra time off though,
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: and remember Marcus Marioto got knocked out of that game.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: Washington was winning that game, I think at around halftime,
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: and then he got knocked out. They didn't do well
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: in the remainder of the game. They scored one more
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: touchdown I think later in the game. They lost by eighteen.
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: They do have extra time off because that game was
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: on Saturday. I believe they're staying at home, so the
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: travel spot is better for Washington.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: Josh Johnson is playing for Washington, so he's their third
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: street quarterback. But maybe there is a little bit of
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: good there.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: Which one thing.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: I know, he's old, he's like thirty nine, but he's
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: he's been around man, He's he's got a lot of
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: experience coming into situations like this, and I know he
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: got thrust into it last time wasn't exactly great, but
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: he at least knows what he's doing out there. I mean,
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: there's a reason why he's stuck in the NFL for
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: however long it's been seventeen years or whatever, and I
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: think he's probably been on like almost a dozen different teams.
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: But he's a journeyman, backup quarterback man. He's played a
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: lot of games in his career. He's not gonna be
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: intimidated by playing here. Maybe he'll get excited.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: He gets to face an extremely weak defense in Dallas.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: So I think if you're gonna play this game, I
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: think you have to lean towards taking the points. I mean,
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys, we're gonna be a three point favorite, and
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: now the line is ten. I mean, come on, Like,
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: do you really think the drop off from Mariota to
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: Johnson is worth a touchdown with two teams that just
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: don't have a.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: Whole lot to play for him.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: But for Washington at least they already they lost to
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: Dallas earlier this year embarrassingly by twenty two points on
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: the road at Dallas to Washington maybe has a little
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: bit to play for for that reason, and it's their
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: final home game.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: I think if you're gonna play this, you gotta take
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: the points.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, laying ten points on the road with a
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: Dallas team that looks like they're probably dead and have
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: they have one of the absolute worst defenses, Is that
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: really what you want to do? I would say, no,
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: seventy eight percent of tickets eighty percent of the cash
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: on the Cowboys, I would take the points.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: I mean ten is a key number too.
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: If you can actually get ten on Washington, I think
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: that would be the way to look. It looks like
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: you might have to pay a little bit of juice
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: for it, and then money's also coming in on the
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: under sixty percent of tickets on the over sixty three
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash in the under total drop off
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: the key number of fifty one to fifty and a half.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think if you're gonna play a total
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: in this, I think it has to be over though.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: I mean, it seems too easy, but like, what else
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: do you think is gonna happen in this game? The
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: total didn't really drop because of the Washington quarterback drop
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: off here, but honestly, you're talking about two really bad
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: defenses here, the Cowboys can definitely put up points, and again,
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: two teams that don't really have a lot of meaning
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: left in this game might not come out and play
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: really really intense defense. Although again, these guys are still
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: playing for contracts and stuff like that.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: But I don't know, I think it kind.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: Of turns into a game where guys at least don't
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: want to get hurt.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: I could see it going over for sure, we'll see.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: The one thing you do have to worry about about
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: these home teams today, though, is the Christmas Netflix game
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: started last year, and I think both home teams lost
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: one of them in a blowout because I think there
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: might be some like holiday home distraction stuff going on here.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: We're having to play at home on Christmas actually can
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: kind of be a distraction, So there is a little
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: bit of a worry there. Josh Johnson sucks. I mean again,
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: there's a reason why his career has lasted this long.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: He's a capable backup quarterback man.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: And again he's going against one of the bottom defenses
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: and all of the NFL. The Cowboys actually have the
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: worst pass defense in football by a lot of metrics.
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: In that they've also they've allowed the most passing yards
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: and passing touchdowns two opponents in the NFL this year.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: So Josh Johnson is gonna be my fantasy quarterback trying
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: to get the third place here man, because I don't
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: really have that much of a choice. It's a really
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: good matchup for him. At least after noon games. Well
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: that's it won two after noon games. The late afternoon
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: game is Detroit at Minnesota, also on Netflix. Detroit has
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: already gone up from three and a half point favorites
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: for seven and a half point favorite. So if you
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: like Detroit, you missed out on that key number. It
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: was sitting at lower than seven at some points this week.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Eighty five percent tickets in ninety two percent of the
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: cash on the Lions. This is a situation where I
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: I don't really think the public has this one wrong,
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: but it is a question of is laying more than
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: a touchdown on the road with the Lions a bit
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: too much here?
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Probably it is.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: But obviously the reason why this line has moved this
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: significantly is the Vikings are going with Max Brosmer again
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: because they don't really have a choice with McCarthy injured,
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: Wentz is obviously injured. Max Brosmer looked about as bad
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: as possible.
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: And his one start that he made so far, but
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: it was his NFL debut, it was on the road,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: it was against Seattle.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: They're a good defense, but he was awful. He threw
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: like four picks. He's not gonna be that bad in
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: this game. And he gets to play for his home
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: crowd because Max Brosmer, I don't know if he's from Minnesota,
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: but he played at the University of Minnesota, so this
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: will be his first game playing at home for the
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: Vikings as a starter, so he might have some motivation
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: for that reason. The Lions, they could technically still make
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: the playoffs, but they need to win out and they
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: need Green Bay to lose out. I'm pretty sure that's
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: the only way Detroit can make the playoffs now.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: So they're almost eliminated.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: But when you're a team that isn't mathematically eliminated and
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: you need help, you know what I mean, You don't
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: control your own destiny. Those teams tend to be pretty dangerous, man.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: So that is Detroit here. Remember we do have a
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: short turnaround time here, which I forgot to mention with
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: both Detroit and doubt well with all three of these
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: road teams. I believe all three of the road teams
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: played on Sunday.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: The thing about that is, though, they're all playing divisional games,
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: so it's that Thursday handicaper. A lot of times, the
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: home team has a little bit of an advantage preparation
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: wise because they're playing in their own stadium.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: But the divisional opponents tend to not do as.
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: Bad on the road on Thursday games because they always
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: play in this you know, at this location every year,
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: so they're used to going there, so that's not as bad. Dawn,
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: what's up, man, A good prop day? I mean it
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: probably it's probably a decent prop day.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't do a whole lot with props.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: But then on the other hand, though, a lot of
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: people are gonna be playing props, so, especially in the NBA,
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: so the prop market is going to be like rais
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: or thin, so like I mean, sure, yeah, I mean,
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: you can pick your spots and probably find some good
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: props though. Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas, sir, Thanks for thanks
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: for hanging out, man. But yeah, I mean I don't
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: really do props.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: I don't. I'm not really gonna I'm not gonna give out.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: Any prop suggestions here just because I don't I don't
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: want to mislead people. Really, I'm just going through my
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: thought process here as far as what I do. But
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: for Detroit, I think they're gonna win this game. And
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're talking about this is the first time
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: in a long time that Detroit's lost two games in
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: a row. Everybody saw that embarrassing loss. Pittsburgh actually did
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: outgain them by over one hundred yards I think in
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: Detroit on Sunday when the game really meant something. But
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: before that, Detroit had been really really good off a loss.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: They'd won I think fourteen games in a row after
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: a loss under Dan Campbell.
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: So these are like the bounce back kids.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: Another reason why I was shocked that they weren't able
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: to get that game. There were a lot of trends
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: that favored Detroit pretty heavily in that game against Pittsburgh.
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: There was one other one. I forget what it was.
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: There was some other really crazy trend that was going
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: on in that game. I mean, I don't think you
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: really want to go against Dan Campbell in a spot
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: like this, though, And you remember The last time he
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: had a road revenge spot was against Washington for the
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: playoff revenge from last year, and they obliterated Washington. This
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: is a revenge spot because they lost to Minnesota earlier
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: this year. Remember I gave out that play on my show,
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: Minnesota plus the points in that one that was back with.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: I believe McCarthy was the quarterback.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: In that game. They got the job done for us
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: against Detroit. But remember Detroit was in a bad spot.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: They'd gone into the bye on a good note and
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: they had that huge revenge game against Washington up next
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: to They'd beaten Tampa Bay going into the bye, which
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: at the time was a really big game. So I
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: faded them with Minnesota. We got them with Minnesota. Now
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: Detroit could make some adjustments from that game against Minnesota.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: To me, I think they actually show up and they
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: play a good game here. That would be my guess.
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: So my lean would be towards laying the points with
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: Detroit in this one, but I really would not want
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: to lay more than seven.
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, the lion has kind of escaped us.
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: I think now that it's gone through that key number,
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: maybe there is some value in looking towards the dog.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: Here, the totals drop significantly.
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: From forty nine to forty three, eighty seven percent of
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: tickets seventy seven percent of the cash on the over.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: So money looks like it's still coming in in the
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: under in this game, but the total could be an
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: overreaction just to how bad Max Brosmer looked in his
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: one game. The Lions defense is not as good as Seattle,
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: so maybe he gets a little bit of a reprieve there. Now,
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: the other thing, if you do like the Vikings here,
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: the other thing you have going for you is they're
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: the better defense getting points. So at least you could
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: say that the Vikings defense is still pretty solid. So
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: there is that at least going for the Vikings. But
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: I kind of think the Lions get the job done
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: in this one.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: Oh thank you, sir. I appreciate it, man, I appreciate
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: you hanging out, check out the show. And then the
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: last game.
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, if I was gonna play any NFL game,
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: this is the one that I would do. But I
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: don't think I could bring myself to you know what
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: I mean. It is, so it's pretty close to me, honest,
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: But it's just like it still seems dangerous to me.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: This is Broncos Chiefs.
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: The Chiefs are also going with the third string quarterback here,
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: and I don't even remember what this guy's name is.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Man, this is gonna be his NFL debut.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: He's been around. He was on some other NFL team.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: Ol Adope un a lot of Coon. I don't know Chris,
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: a lot of coon. I don't know how he pronounced
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: his name. People don't even know who he is because
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: he didn't even play for an FBS college team.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: He played at South Dakota Stateleough they have a good
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: FCS program.
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: That's where he went to college. He got drafted in
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, not by the Chiefs.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Though, it was some other team.
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: Now for this guy, I mean, I don't know what
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Kansas City is gonna do offensively with him, Like, I
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: don't really know what style.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: Quarterback he is. He did.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: We have to play a little bit after Minshew got hurt,
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: and it was not good.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: They lost horror. But at Tennessee.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: It's absolutely crazy that Kansas City had two quarterbacks both
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: tear their acls and back to back weeks.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Unbelievably insane.
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: But look at what we're talking about here, now with
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: Minshew starting, the Broncos are gonna be a five and
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: a half point favorite. Now a lot of coon is
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: starting and then and the line is almost two touchdowns.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Now, I think if it hits.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: Fourteen, there's no other way that you can play this
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: game than taking the points with the Chiefs. I mean,
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: come on, the Chiefs. There's still the chief I know
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs are not going to make the playoffs this year.
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: They still have a good deep fense. I know they
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: shut down Rashie Rice. I know their offense isn't that good,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: but come on, man, you're talking about two touchdowns that
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs are getting in Arrowhead. It's ridiculous, Like, when
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: is the last time the Chiefs were this substantial and underdog?
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: When's the last time they were even a seven point underdog.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: It was probably not even in the last few years.
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: So this is just an insane line. Eighty two percent
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: of the tickets on the Broncos. The public is laying
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: it with the Broncos, eighty percent of the.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: Cash on them.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: And you know the other thing I talk about with
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: the Broncos, they don't have a great offense. They're not
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: built to cover numbers like this, especially on the road.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: You think the Broncos a team it's much more defensive minded.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: You think they're gonna cover two touchdowns. I just don't
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: see it.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Man. And the Chiefs, this could be the last game
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: they get up for.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: Man, I mean, it's really embarrassing how awful they were
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: against Tennessee. They have a couple of reasons why they
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: might show up for this game.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Man. Even though they can't spoil Denver season, they.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: Can they can kind of knock Denver back a little bit,
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: and they can potentially throw a wrench into Denver trying
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: to win the division because if Denver Denver plays the
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: Chargers next week, and if Denver loses to the Chargers.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: So yeah, so I believe if the Chargers are.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: One game behind Denver going into next week and the
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: Chargers and the Chargers beat Denver, the Chargers will win
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: the division instead of Denver because the Chargers already beat
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: Denver earlier this year, So the Chargers hold the tiebreaker
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: right now against Denver. So Denver could still lose the
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: division and it's gonna kind of come down to next
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: week for Denver. Though, yes, they still kind of need
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: to win this game to really stay in the driver's
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: seat there. But still Denver already beat Kansas City in Denver.
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: Maybe Kansas City will throw some wrinkles in here. And
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: we're talking about a guy making his debut where at
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: least when you have a guy making his quarterback debut here,
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: there's not a lot of game film on him, so
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: the defense might not know what to prepare for here.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: In what Kansas City is gonna try to do. I
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: think Kansas City will show up. It's a divisional game,
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: it's against Denver. They could potentially knock Denver out of
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: first place. Denver beat them already this season. There are
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: definitely reasons that again Kansas City might show up. They're
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: not gonna aband in a rookie QB yor not a
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: rookie QB, but they're not going to abandon a QB
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: in his NFL debut, you know what I mean? Like
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: that might be a reason enough for the team to
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: show up here and just getting two touchdowns with it's
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: total unbelievably low at thirty six and a half, the
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: only way that you could play this game is to
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: take the points with the Chiefs. It is the only way.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, this line is so unbelievably out of control.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: Money also coming in on the under seventy three percent
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: of the tickets, and then fifty six percent seventy three
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: percent tickets on the over, fifty six percent of the
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: cash on the under. If I was gonna play any
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: of these games today, this is the one it would be.
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: Take the points with the Chiefs. To me, it looks
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: like it's gonna be an ugly low scoring game. The
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: Broncos probably get out of there with the win, but
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: I think the Chiefs cover. I worry about about the
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: danger of playing with a quarterback that we really haven't
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: seen a whole lot from. You just don't know exactly
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: how it's gonna go, Like, especially against a really good
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: deepfense sometimes that is you know, that could mean disaster,
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: Like you could you could wind up seeing this game
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: be like the Broncos win this game, you know, like
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: twenty three to six.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: Or something like that, and they still win.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: But you know, I mean, yeah, I think it's gotta
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: be Chiefs are passing this one plus the points here
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: this one, I might have to throw in my pick
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: five just because I don't really have many other options
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: that I really love. We've got two Saturday games this week,
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: and I don't love.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: These games that are on Saturday very much.
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna have probably two plays in the NFL this
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: week and they're both on the Sunday cards.
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: So I don't like it.
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: Thirty or fifty years that's at that's a pretty big
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: vari It's there forty eight years. So the last time
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs were a two touchdown underdog was forty eight
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: years ago, Is that right? I mean, there were some
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: years where the Chiefs were bad. You gotta think that
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: maybe at some point, more recently than that, there were
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: two TV underwog.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: Maybe we're talking about home games specifically, they haven't been
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: I would probably buy that that they haven't been this
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: big of an underdog at home for that long.
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: Now it's probably gonna be a cold game and the
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: Chiefs are being pussies. And now they're gonna move to
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: the state of Kansas and they're gonna build a dome stadium.
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: Both of these teams are gonna build dome stadiums. You
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: know how I feel about that. I think football should
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: be playing in the elements. It's a man's game.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: I don't like it at all. And if you're Kansas City.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: Why would you want to do that? Kansas City has
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: a big advantage. Arrowhead is one of the loudest stadiums
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: in football. They have a huge advantage there, like playing
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: in the.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: Cold as well. I don't know why they would do this,
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: like for Kansas City. I think it's really really bad.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: It's gonna eliminate their advantage to some extent. This game,
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: shockingly is not gonna be cold though. It's gonna be
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: sixty degrees at this game today, so it's actually gonna
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: be nice, nice weather in Kansas City. I don't know
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: what it's like up here. Up here, it's been a
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: little bit cold and not. It was snowing a little
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: bit up here in New England yesterday, but I think
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be probably in the thirties today here. But
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: sixty degrees in case seems crazy. Grock and Elon, well,
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: hopefully that information is.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Right, But all right, thank you. I will trust them
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: on that.
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: I won't trust Grock's political opinions, but I'll trust I'll
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: trust Grok on this saying that that's correct. Kansas City
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: has not been this big of an underdog for almost
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: fifty years at home. Okay, so yeah, I mean that's
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: the breakdown. Man, Merry Christmas to everybody. Once again, I
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: did give out a play, Jeffrey, I think you like
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: this one. My one play today is the Oklahoma City
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: Thunder minus the points. We're zigzagging it. We're gonna go
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: against the public reception in this one. Public doesn't want
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: anything to do with the Thunder after their own two
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: against the Spurs. But again, Spurs haven't played at OKC yet.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: I think the Thunder make the adjustments. I think this
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: line is actually low based on the fact that they
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: were a heavier favorite than this On a neutral I
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: think you're getting some value here. I would play it
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: probably upwards of about ten. Line is moving in that direction.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: So that's the one play today. Japanese egg salad sandwich
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: at seven eleven. That seems dangerous. Man, hopefully your stomach
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: will be able to handle that. Don't put your life
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: savings on it. Just one of the things you gotta
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: do is be very very disciplined here and just bet
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: everything within a certain range that is affordable, you know
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: what I mean, between between one and five percent of
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: your bank roll basically, and this one I would not
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: say as a five percent or I would say it's
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: a three or four percenter, but I'm all of minor
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: three percenters though, Peter, Merry Christmas to you.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Thank you for hanging out. Man.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: Merry Christmas everybody. Oh good, you're kidding. You can give
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: me a heart attack. Man, Marry Christmas.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: I will. I will marry the holiday. Yes, thanks guys for.
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: Hanging out a little bit of an abbreviated show longer
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: than I thought it would be with a small board today.
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: But hopefully hopefully you guys get some winners out of that,
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: especially the thunder, because that's my one play. Let's get
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: it done today. Let's have a winning day. I mean
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: the winning day all dependent on one game, so hopefully
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: it happens. Merry Christmas everybody. I'll be back at my
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: parents again. I got a head over there shortly.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: I gotta go open my stocking, man, that's gonna do it.
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: Learned a tode on Twitter. I got subscriptions over there now.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey is a subscriber.
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: Al though, I'm gonna start I gotta start doing like
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: some Yuke subscriber content. I'm just giving out Christmas gifts
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: right now with some of these Christmas songs I'm putting out.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: We got that. We got a.
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: Covered in Yuke is my Yuke channel on YouTube, so
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: you can check that out as well. I learned to
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: tode on Instagram or I put betting content out there.
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: We got this channel here obviously, like subscribe, tell more
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: people about it, leave good replies, you know, et cetera.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: We're on audio as well, Spotify apples. Go check that out,
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: so I gotta get.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: That up quickly as well. You can give me good
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: reviews over there. Listen. That helps me out.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: Uh. And then the Loser Cast, the comedy panel podcast,
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: we did do an episode this week, so you can
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: go check that out. You can vote for my loser
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: in the poll that Layton is gonna put up. I
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: think or me it's gonna be. I think there might
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: be a Loser Cast Twitter that he does it from now.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: Mine was the Call of Duty CEO guy who crashed
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: his ferrari and died.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: So that was my loser of the week. My losers
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: are all are all.
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: Guys who They're all guys who had died in a
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: terrible ways. Unfortunately, that's gonna do it, man. I'll be
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: back tomorrow. I guess there'll be some games on the
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: board tomorrow, but I think no college basketball and no
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: NHL for a couple of days though, So actually I
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: don't know. Tomorrow might be a day where there's not
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: a whole lot going on, so I'll have to look
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: and see if there's There are bowls.
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow though, so there will be that.
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: At least there are three bowl games tomorrow, which I
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: think is kind of the biggest thing. Not that they're
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: excellent bowls or anything like that, but we will talk
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: about those. I actually I think I might have one
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: or two plays in the bowls tomorrow, so I might
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: actually be jumping back into.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: The bowl action. So we will see.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: Let's get it, Garrett, thanks for hanging out man. Merry Christmas,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: everybody in peace.