Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / ⚠️Wall Street Just Warned Big Clients of THIS + Stock Market News 07 February 2024

Transcript

⚠️Wall Street Just Warned Big Clients of THIS + Stock Market News 07 February 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Winston and Felix here, and Winston sniffed out what Wall Street's warning its larger clients off.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through that.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through all the important data points today.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Mark is looking pretty good this morning.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I think Uber delivering is definitely helping quite a lot, so we'll look at that.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Winston looks like he's waiting for something, doesn't he?
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, I catch him when he's waiting for it as well.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Paypal also reporting by the end of the day.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: That's important.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I know I'm not going to do that as well, but let me walk you through the key bits of information that make today what today is going to be.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Before we do that, come and join me.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Lawn how to make your money work for you.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: It's the one thing that'll actually get you financial freedom without working your nuts off.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: So come and join me on Tuesday.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: It'll be free and I'll show you and teach you exactly how our trading protocol works, how we're up like what.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Are we up by 15% or something this year so far?
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Something like that.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: I'm Felix Ransselawebinar.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Now is this what banks are warning about?
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Let me make this as big as I possibly can for you.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: What is this?
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: This is sentiment.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: You might be thinking who.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: It's what actually matters in the short term, which way the market's going to go.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: And right now, the zero line is, which I shouldn't use a green line, and the green lines are already.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: You're right, winston.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: What did you just eat Secretly?
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: It's good for cough, doesn't it?
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: You hear that you get cold.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: You get cold.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: All right, a cucumber.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: That probably won't help, but anyway, there's always cucumber on my desk.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: So we are slightly below the yellow line here, and the yellow line is the zero mark where basically, we're a neutral.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: We're slightly bullish, but we're not at insane levels.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: We're not at the beginning of the year levels or August last year or March kind of levels where people just wanted lots and lots of risk.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: That's quite positive, but that's not actually what I wanted to talk to you about.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: It's also not the fact that the Mag7, the Magnificent 7, have now got a market share as a proportion of the S&P which is something like 28%, heading for 30.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Go to 2015 or 14.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: It was what?
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: 5, 7% Wapping.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Okay, good stuff floats to the top.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Now Winston's still staring at me.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: You, okay, you just want more cucumber.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: It's not what it's all about.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I should set up a Winston camp.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: So what's it all about?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Well, the profits of US companies are going up more than ever.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Can you see?
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: This ear Are expected to literally moon, and it's the fastest profit growth we've ever had in the S&P 500.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Well, almost Okay, there is the nutty recovery here of the post-COVID thing, but really, if you connected that, it would be a slightly flatter slope, so that was a bit of an unusual one.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: But yeah, very, very, very fast profit growth.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Well, the market's only going to go one way.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: So is that what we're worried about?
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: No, what about this?
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: What about that?
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: The?
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: It's a bit complicated, isn't it?
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: What is it all about?
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Basically, big tech is seeing their profit margins grow at like 20% a quarter.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: The rest of the S&P about 9% or 8%.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: It's not bad, but not what we want to see.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: So big tech is essentially in control of this rally.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Can we see your nose, winston?
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: No nose, but that's not the worry either.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Is it the amount of stocks that Meta is repurchased?
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: It turns out Zuckerberg isn't just a good wrestler, but he's actually a pretty good trader.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: He purchased whopping amounts of Meta shares, or Meta did, at an average of $190 per share, and now it's trading at what?
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: 450 or 60 or something like that.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Let me look at the life market in a second.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: So that's smart share buyback right.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: So when your stock's tanking, you've got lots of money buy it.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: And it is also making him the fourth richest person in the world and he's gunning for Bezos, musk and Bernard Arnaud and Femélie, as they say in France.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: So I think there's a good chance Zuckerberg's going to be the richest guy in the world again pretty shortly.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: So much for nobody uses Facebook.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: What about Fed rate cuts?
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Are we worried about the Fed?
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: It is true that rate cut expectations have fallen while the S&P has gone to the moon and that's a bit weird, but really the profit growth expectations we've got above kind of explain that much.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Like hitting the like button just makes the day a bit better as well.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: You know, if you don't really understand something, if in doubt, smash that button.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: What about small caps?
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Should we be worried about small caps?
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Yes, you should be worried about small caps, but that's not what I wanted to talk to you about, because the small stock caps so the Russell versus the S&P the small caps are less and less and less profitable compared to the S&P thanks to the big eight stocks.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: So therefore, small caps will continue to underperform the S&P.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean they can't do all right, but they continue to underperform.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: But if you have Russell trades open at the moment, I'd be a little cautious.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Not financial advice.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: But if it goes a little lower, then you might see some serious sell-offs.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: The algo traders are about to hit the sell button, so I've got a Russell trade open as well.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: They'll do something about that today, probably.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: What about elections?
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Did you see?
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: I will get to that in a second.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: What happens in election years?
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Well, the market goes up like a lot.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: The market goes up a lot before presidential elections and after presidential elections.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Historically, it has to happen, but historically that's the case.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: So what should you therefore do?
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Well, history is anything to go by, you should buy the fricking dip at any opportunity.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Basically, not financial advice.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: What I want to talk to you about is the most exciting, exhilarating piece of information you've ever seen.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Should tell your spouse about this today.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: She'll leave you and it is the 10-year note auction.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: The government is issuing, auctioning today, if I'm not mistaken, $42 billion of 10-year bonds, and that is the largest amount that they have issued in a long time.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: It would add a line.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Can we get a straight line?
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: It would basically add this line to the chart.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Well, it better go smoothly, otherwise the hiccup is going to upset the market.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: We will look at the yields.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Why does this matter?
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: And I think it's very confusing.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Basically, higher bond yields, which is the amount the government has to pay to attract people to buy it, mean lower stock prices.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: That's the correlation.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Because you can get more for zero risk allegedly zero risk You're going to take less risk on the stock market.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: That's just the way that the math sort of works out.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: So we've got to watch for that.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: And the US government is issuing more debt this year than ever before in the history of monkeys running countries, and therefore it's going to suck money out of the market.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: But if interest rates fall and they manage to sell that debt regardless without having to pay more and more and more and more for it, then we will still get a beautiful rally.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: But if they have to pay more and more and more yields to attract buyers, then we're screwed.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: So this is actually the biggest thing out there.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Now, this here is for entertainment.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Did you see that Nikki Haley?
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: I would say her chance of becoming president this time around is now zero.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: She ran in Nevada in the primary election and she lost to none of these people.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: She lost to that guy.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: None of these candidates got 60% off the vote and Nikki Haley got about 30% off the vote.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: So Trump obviously didn't run.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: But yes, so that's.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: I mean I think you should just go all right, I give up.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: At some point, you need to know when to hang up your hat.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: This is one of those moments.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Let's look at the life market Before we do.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I want to encourage you to come and learn how to make your money work for you.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: What do I mean by that?
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Learn the rules that could allow you to make money by trading a couple of hours a week, and the problem is that people lose money because they haven't got any rules to follow.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: We've got the rules.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: We'll teach you the rules for free on Tuesday.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Come and join me.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Philixfrancorg slash webinar Now pre-market.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Oh, isn't she a beauty?
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: She is green.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: She is green.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Let me make this a little bit smaller.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I can also make myself a little bit smaller if you guys can't see it.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, everything is basically up except for Oracle.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: So, disney, I think.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Disney, yeah, disney, down a percentage point.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Disney earnings are not in yet.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: They're coming out today.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Uber is up Wapping beat on profits.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: We'll have a look at how they're doing in a second.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Cbs Health nice beat PayPal after the market today, hilton beating on all accounts, which is good news.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: And, yeah, shall we have a look at Uber actually?
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Hang on and, of course, put your questions in the chat.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: I will do my best to answer them to the best of Winston's ability.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Uber 2.5% down pre-market.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: What did they say?
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Uber earnings crush, weird.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Uber earnings beat expectations.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: 22% rise in bookings, uber's platform discipline and the rest of them.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Blah, blah, blah.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Oh good, ah, okay, they were going to do some sort of buyback or dividend and they didn't announce it on this call.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: They're going to tell us about it when Next week.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: So basically, people are disappointed.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: There isn't a buyback.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: So, okay, wait a week and you will get there.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: That could be an interesting trading opportunity for somebody as an opportunist like me to maybe set up a trade on that when the market opens.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: I will have a look at that.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: What am I talking about?
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: And this might be.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: You might be thinking what's the on about now?
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Let me maybe make myself a little bit smaller here.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: So if we look at Uber here and options, data will still be pre-market data.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: I guess there isn't a pre-market on options, except for very few.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: So what we could do is be somewhere down here with a break even sort of here at maybe $61.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Which is that gray dotted line here and Winston patients please.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: And then if we rebound next week, we'd make a nice tidy 19% potentially.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: So it's a sort of thing we might want to look at.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: But yeah, if you want to understand this, first of all, the software I'm using is options watchio links above and down below in the description somewhere.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: But yeah, come in and learn from me next week and I'll walk you through it.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Let me hit me with your questions and we look at absolutely everything.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Is Palantir holding onto its gains?
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Pre-market Amazing day yesterday, right, 30% up, losing 1.3%.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Now there is a $650 million government contract just out yesterday.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Winston, have some patience please.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: He's being very naughty.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Why are you so naughty?
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Can you see this nose Naughty nose Still quite impressive to hold onto those gains.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: I think they'll probably hold onto quite a lot of it, given that contracts out and people start to hear about it.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: But some profit taking makes sense Also.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: You are at this peak level here up there, so we have that.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Lid is exactly where we're trading yesterday, so that's an important point to notice.