Latest / Toadstool Sports / SUNDAY BEST BETS | No High Fives | MLB & WNBA | 8/2/26

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SUNDAY BEST BETS | No High Fives | MLB & WNBA | 8/2/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm, man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chips, the black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: this man. But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show. Put
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me, now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on nothing nice.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Not no.
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: Hold on, load on me, but it all.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: Get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on and stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now what's up bird? But it's towed back with you.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Toadstool Sports for Sunday August second had a winning day
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: on the show Yesterday two and one started out with
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: an outright winning the w NBA in the afternoon on
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: the Chicago Sky. They were losing for a decent amount
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: of the game. They're hanging around in the game and
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: they want to winning the game outright in the end.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: So happy about that. That's why I always say put
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: some of it on the money line, man, whenever you
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: play an underdog at all, I would say put some
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: on the money line. But a short underdog price like that, yeah,
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: ten percent money line and then you get some extra
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: money out of it if it happens, which did. We
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: did not get the Mets right. The Mets were ass
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: Zach Thornton didn't have a good start. I mean they
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: teased a little bit after they fall behind three nothing.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: They cut it to three to two in not another
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: third inning, fourth inning, and it looked like, oh, maybe
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: the Mets are gonna come back here. No, then they
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: never scored again. So great, and then we did get
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: the underright in Red Sox Dodgers. Maybe a little bit
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: lucky there. The Dodgers put up a lot of hits,
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: ten hits. They did not get a lot of runs
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: out of it, but usually when you get ten runs,
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: you're gonna get more than two or ten hits. Excuse
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: you're gonna get more than two runs out of it.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: Red Sox had a couple of solo home runs from Rafaela,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: so the Red Sox scored probably more runs than I
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: guess they should have. I think maybe it still should
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: have gone under, but there really should have been probably
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: like a four to one Dodgers win would have been
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: more appropriate for how that game played out. I mean,
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: I'm happy the Red Sox won because I'm a fan,
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: but it is what it is. I'm happy we got
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: the under right. There was really like one inning where
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: it was pretty surprising that the Dodgers didn't get another
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: run home. I think it was like the fourth inning,
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: maybe something like that. They scored I think one run
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: in the inning and they had second and third with
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: one out and they didn't score again after that. But
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: handed to Peyton Toley, I guess racking up some strikeouts,
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: getting out of some jams. All right, we'll move on
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: to today. Today. I like a lot of unders today,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: and that is what my card is gonna look like.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: I had to find a way to limit myself and
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: hopefully I'm picking the right ones, because there were like
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: five games that I identify right like the unders and
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: all of them, but a lot of them wind up
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: being first fives because I want to avoid the bullpens
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: for various reasons, and I know we're skating on the
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: edge there when we're trying to take it first five under.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Let's get it done, man. Hopefully we can get this done.
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: Hopefully we can get a winning day out of this
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: card here, and hopefully the ones that I'm leaving off,
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: hopefully I'm doing that for the right reason. But we'll see.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, those are still gonna be leans for me,
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: of course. First game up, Philadelphia Baltimore. We've got a
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: lot of afternoon games here obviously, because this is the
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: end of a series for all these teams. We'll have
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: new series starting tomorrow for some teams. At least some
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: teams are off tomorrow. Philadelphia won yesterday five nothing behind
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: Christopher Sanchez, I'm pretty sure, so they bounce back with
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: a win. This is a split one to one series
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: here at this point. And what I will say, of course,
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: is also we have to be aware of what's going
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: on with the trade deadline situation. Because teams that are
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: sellers at the trade dead then of course we're going
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: to talk about the one team it's like a major
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: seller that has decided that that's what they're doing. A
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: lot of times those teams don't play well in the
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: short term because it's almost like a dream crusher. But
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: I'll talk about that. You know what team I'm talking
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: about probably I'll get to that in a minute, doesn't
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: really involve this game here Philadelphia and Baltimore. As far
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: as the bullpen's just today, Baltimore used four relief pitchers.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: They have the better bullpen here out of them in
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: philadel And actually, wait a minute, I forgot this is
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: a play for me. Wait what Philadelphia used three? Hold on,
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: this is a play. Yeah, so this is gonna be
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: a first five under play for me. I found it
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: under four minus one eighteen, not a horrible price. There
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: hopefully a similar numbers out there for everybody. I prefer
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: the four over the three and a half. Of course,
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: every half run matters in the first five. But I
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: like the starting pitching in this one. Obviously. I don't
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: like the bullpens well enough. I mean, I'm fine with
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: the Orioles bullpen. They're actually not bad. They're at tenth.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: But this Phillies bullpen, they're ranked twentieth, they have a
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: mid four zer. I really don't want to trust them.
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna limit this to just the starting pitching,
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: where I think the biggest advantages. We do have a
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: pretty weak Philly offense here at twenty third and Baltimore nineteenth,
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: and Phillies pretty weak on the road offensively specifically, so
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: I think that's part of this handicap that's decent, is
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: that these offenses, hopefully are ones that are somewhat easier
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: to hold in check here, even though Camden Yards is
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: a more hitter friendly ballpark. But I like the starting
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: pitching here. Zach Wheeler is pitching for the Phillies, and
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: we know that he's really good. A two point five
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: to three RA point nine two whip. He's in the
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: Cy Young discussion. He's been pitching like an angry dude,
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: and mostly in a good way since being named as
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: an alternate for the All Star and All Star Game,
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: and then when some pitcher dropped out, they invited him
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: to the All Star Game and he basically was like,
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: f you, I'm not gonna do it. He was disrespected
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: by it, so I mean, good on him. I like it.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: But he's actually been a little bit better on the
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: road in some ways. Two point three to nine Roady
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: ra didn't pitch well last time out against Miami. He
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: said he was sick or something in that game. I
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: don't know, but I think that's an outlier. I mean,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: he's been pitching so well otherwise. I don't really put
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: much weight into how bad that start was. He was
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: basically elite in the month of July, forty nine strikeouts
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: and four walks in twenty seven to two thirds innings.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: Still had a lot of strikeouts in that outing against Miami,
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: so I don't really see much of a reason why
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: the struggles for him would continue there. I think he
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: got a little bit unlucky in that start too, and
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: that basically everybody that reached Bay scored against him there.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate on the season, very
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: low low walk rate. He doesn't walk anybody either, strike
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: out rate is high. All his numbers are good across
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: the board, and he's good against Baltimore as well, in
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: sixty eight at bats twenty three to three, strikeout walk ratio,
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: really good, two point fifty average allowed six to ninety
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: three oh ps. Not totally dominant there, but pretty good.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: So I think he should pitch well. And I'm gonna
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: back Kyle Bradish here as well, even though I know
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: his kind of suggested as ERA shouldn't be as good
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: as it is three point seven four ERA, one point
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: three to six whip. But he's pitching better recently and
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: he's very good at home. He's been significantly better at
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: home this year three point two ERA with a one
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: eighty seven opponent batting average, so he's been significantly better
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: at home. He had a bad outing, just like Wheeler.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: He had a bad outing last time out against Detroit
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: on the road. He was way too hit able in
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: that game. But he was pitching quite well in the
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: starts leading into that, so I think that's an outlier
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: as well. I don't really think that's a sign that
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: he's totally falling apart or anything like that, because he
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: was pitching so well otherwise leading into that for multiple
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: starts in a row, and his overall numbers don't look
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: bad to me. His hit rates fairly low. Well, actually,
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is too high. That's the one problem
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: with him. That's why his whip is so high, as
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: he walks too many guys. But his walk rates come
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: way down recently, so I'm not really that worried about that.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: He only has five walks in the last twenty five innings,
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: so that number's gone down recently. And he's got a
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: reasonably high strikeout rate as well. And of course the
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: clincher here is that he's he's pretty good against Philadelphia
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: thirty two at bats. I know it's not a huge sample,
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: but he's held them to a one to eighty eight
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: average six sixty three ohps six to three strike out
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. The ratio is not good, but the rest
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: of those numbers are good. So I will back the
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: starters here and back the under in the first five,
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: and I think the money's agreeing with me on like
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: every one of these plays too. We have sixty three
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets ninety two percent of the cash on
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: the under here. The full game totals around eight or
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. I think you should be able
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: to find the four out there. I mean, I know
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: at three and a half, I hate that number, but
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: hopefully you can fight a four out there by the
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: way that I did. And the money's also coming out
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: of Philadelphia for what that's worth, but they're also very public.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: I don't have a good read on the side, but
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: eighty three percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: cash on Philly. They're at minus one thirty or so here.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: I think if you try to play Philly, you should
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: just do it in the first five. I'll have to
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: pay more for that. I mean, Wheeler was just an
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: excellent pitcher, so they probably have the edge in the
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: starting pitching at least somewhat. But they don't have a
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: bullpen advantage, and Philly is a very public side, so
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: obviously it wouldn't surprise me if they wind up losing
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: this game in a low scoring game, and low scoring games,
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: as I always say, kind of indicate that there might
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: be some value on the underdog, especially a home underdog. Really,
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: but if you think it's gonna be a low scoring game,
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: it means it's gonna be closer and the underdog can
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: hang around more easily. So but my playing that one
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: is under in the first five. All right, Garrett, what's
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: up four and a half? What was the juice on that?
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's that's a good number. If it's not
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: heavy juice, hopefully it's like minus one thirty or less.
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: I didn't see that though. Let me look, I didn't check.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: Last I checked was before I did the show. But
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: let me see. No, I don't see that. I see
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: minus one forty three at the book that starts with
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: a bee that's the name of a gym. That's way
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: too much juice there. I wouldn't do that. I wouldn't
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: pay minus one forty to get it up to four
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: and a half. I would not do that. I would
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: take the four dirty sock, Yes, thank you, what's up?
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: I think maybe we got a little bit lucky. I
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: think the Chicago play was good, and I still think
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: the under was probably the correct play on that whatever
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox Dodgers game Washington Atlanta here, Atlanta has
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: not decided on a starting pitcher yet, and I think
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: it's because Atlanta and the Mets ernest scenario where they
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: had to play a double header at the end of
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: their series, so they played two games in one day,
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: so the guy that should start next had to start
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: in that first game of that series, and that was
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: I believe it was Smith Chaver against Manaia. And they're
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: not on the they're not on the normal rest here,
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: so neither one of them are going to start today.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: I don't think Smith Shav actually got sent down to
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: the minors. So I have no idea what the Braves
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: are doing in this game. Maybe not a good sign.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: The Braves just haven't picked a start or don't know
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: who it is unless somebody comes back, so like if
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: is Spencer Stride are gonna make a surprise comeback here
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: for this game. I have no idea, Garrett, you're the
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: Braves guy. Richie yeah, it might be O good man,
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: you gotta get more books at your disposal. Man. Minus
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: one forty is ridiculous. Oh my god, that price is horrible.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: All right, if it's if we think it's Jared Richie,
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: I guess I can handicap him here. So in this series, though,
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: I guess we have to look at what's going on.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: The Braves are on the version of a four game
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: sweep here, so you know, I like to look towards
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: the team avoiding the sweep or trying to avoid the sweep.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: I think you get extra motivation out of that team
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: that's trying to avoid the sweep, and the team that
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: is on the verge of the sweep might just look ahead.
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: Who do the Braves playing next? When they play Miami,
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: maybe they do start looking ahead there. Miami is actually
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: ahead of Washington and the standing, so yeah, maybe the Braves,
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: already having won this series, maybe they do start looking
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: ahead to that game Washington. We have a known starter
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: on the mount for Washington here. Washington's bullpen's pretty bad
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: though they use two guys, which isn't bad, but their
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: bullpen is still obviously the worst of the two here,
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: and it's not even really close. Atlanta only used two
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: guys yesterday as well. They use nobody on Friday, so
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's bullpen is rested. Atlanta's the number two bullpen here
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: in whip, but their era is significantly worse at this
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: point than Red Sox and Yankees, so I think they're
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: the third best bullpen is probably accurate for them, but
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: still way better than Washington. Washington's twenty sixth not good.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Braves are decent offensively at ninth. Washington number two in offense,
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: and they've been hovering around number one. Washington's a good
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: offense on the road, Atlanta is slightly worse offensively at home,
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: and Washington is going with Cad Cavali here, who is
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: pitching pretty well recently. He's got a three point five
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: to five year raw in the season. He's got his
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: whipped down to one point twenty nine, which is not
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: too bad. He's good on the road three point twenty
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: five rodio race. He's better on the road. Washington as
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: a team is just better on the road. For whatever reason.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: Cavali has been pretty good his last three, really, his
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: last four starts have all been good. He's got a
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: pretty good command ratio here, that's what he put up
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: in the month of July twenty eight to seven. Looking
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: pretty good here. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: in his last four outings and in seven of his
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: last eight he's done that, So yeah, he's definitely in
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: form right now. His hit rate is below one per
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: inning at this point, which is decent. His walk rate
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: is fairly decent here as well. Strike out rate is high,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: and he gets a lot of ground balls too, which
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: I think is a decent way to pitch. You know,
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: you're not putting too many balls in the air. It
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: means you're not going to give up that many home
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: runs usually, which is the case with him. But his
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is so high that tells you that
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: he has talent. Man. He could strike guys out at
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: the major league level, and he's been okay against the
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: Braves and twenty four at bats eleven strikeouts, one walk.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: That's good, good ratio there. The only thing that's bad
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: about these numbers is the batting average at two ninety two.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: That's a high average. But they haven't hit him for
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: power like at all. They have a six to ninety
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: five OPS against him, so I kind of like Cavali
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: in this one, and I like the situation more for
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: Washington here Atlanta. If it's gonna be Richie here, Ronaldo Lopez,
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: I guess just went on the d L again too.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: Is Richie even on the roster right now? Where's he at? So?
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: I guess if it's Richie, they're gonna call him up.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: Let me look at his numbers real quick, because I
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: know he's been up and down this year. He looks
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: like he's currently not on their roster, but they might
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: call him up here. Richie has been in the minors
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: since he last pitched in the majors on July twenty first,
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: so you can't see. This is in a different window.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: But whatever, he didn't pitch well, and that started against
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: San Diego. And let me just see what his numbers
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: are against Washington. If he has then he probably does
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: have some. Yeah, he's done okay against Washington. They have
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: twenty four at bats against him, a two oh eight average,
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: seven to twenty eight ohps, seven to two strikeout walk ration.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: Let me see. I can bring this in so that
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: people can see it here it is, Yeah, there are
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: the numbers. It's in twenty four at bats, so yeah,
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, I kind of leave Washington here, but I'm
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: not gonna come in and try to fade this. I mean,
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: unless we determine that it's not gonna be Richie. It
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: is Richie there. It is good call Garrot. So Richie
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: has been announced as the starter there. The money is
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: coming in on Washington. I still agree I would play
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: Washington in the first five here. I think I still
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: think they have a starting pitching edge there with Cavali,
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: and I think they have the motivational edge. Just there's
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: no way you can back Washington's bullpen. But we have
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: sixty four percent of the tickets on Atlanta. It looks
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: way too easy to play Atlanta at minus one twenty something,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: and the price has gone down on them, So there's money.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: It looks like there's actual money coming in on Washington here,
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: eighty one percent of the cash as well. Money's also
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: at least slightly indicating towards an over eight and a
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: half or nine here. I don't really have a good
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: I don't think I agree with that. I actually think
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: a first five under might make a little more sense
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: here based on the matchup numbers that we just saw there.
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: Both starters might be able to do okay, But I
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: mean that's also kind of an indicator that maybe you
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: want to look towards a dog in the first a
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: dog just in general. But yeah, the dog would be
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: Washington here. So if it's gonna be a close pitching matchup, yeah,
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: that would favor Washington as well. But yeah, I think Cavali.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: I think he's better than Richie, Like he's more established
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: at this point, So getting him as an underdog probably
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: in the first I think you'll still get him as
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: an underdog in the first five. It'll be close, maybe
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: like a pick em price. I think that's what I
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: would do Washington first five. And well, the other thing
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: is it looks way too easy to play the Braves.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: I think I already said that, but yeah, you're you
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: get the Braves at are really cheap price here. It
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: looks so easy to play the Braves when they've dominated
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: the series, they got the better rack. So it's like
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: the books are almost begging you to play the Braves here.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: So I would not do that. Yeah, like a letdown.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: I don't know if if I necessarily would call it
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: a letdown, because I don't think it's that big a
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: deal for them. To beat Washington, but it's more like
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: they're just gonna overlook them in the last game potentially,
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: So all right, Saint Louis A Toronto is next. This
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: has been a pretty low scoring series so far, especially
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: on the Saint Louis side. They can't do anything offensively
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: right now. Toronto is a bad offense, but they've been
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: able to get a little bit done in this series.
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: This game today, I'm not sure is going to be
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: that low scoring though. In this series. Saint Louis, well,
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: they used two relief pitchers. Just say, Saint Louis is
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: not a good bullpen. Toronto's is better. Toronto used four
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen yesterday. I still prefer Toronto's
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: bullpen out of the two, their ranked thirteenth, Saint Louis
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: is twenty second. Both offenses are ranked pretty poorly. Saint
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: Louis is where are they at twenty six? Toronto's twenty ninth,
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: So they're above Cleveland at least right now, but that's
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: not saying much. ESPN is Michael McGreevy listed as the
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: starter here, but I'm pretty sure it's gonna be libratrre. Yeah,
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: So Saint Louis made a pitching change there. I don't know.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: Does that mean mcgreevy's getting traded? I have no idea.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: We got to watch it, man, watch the trade deadline here.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: Sometimes weird things happen. Maybe that means McGreevy is gonna
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: be traded. I don't know, Uh don't know where to.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, his name would suggest that he should be
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: on the Red Sox, but I don't necessarily want him
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: because he's he is not a guy that the advanced
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: analytics guys like. I'll put you that, I'll put it
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: that way. But Libratrre I think is the is the
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: worst pitcher though, like I think that's a downgrade for
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis. Here, Libratory is not having a good season.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: Five point two six e RA one point five to
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: six whip is really bad. He's bad on the road
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: five point seven seven ROADYRA with an opponent of batting
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: average above three hundred. That it's not good. He's been
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: bad in his last two starts. He's not pitching well.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: He's not very good. He's got a very high hit rate.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: He's way too hittable. His walk rate is somewhat okay,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: gives up a pretty good amount of home runs to
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is actually decent, it's right around one
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: per inning. But yeah, he's really really hittable. Maybe the
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: Blue Jays will be able to get some offense going here.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: They do have good numbers against him in thirty five
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: at bats five zero strikeout walk ratio, but all the
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: other numbers are favoring the offense here three fourteen average,
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: eight fifty seven ops. So I think Labor Torre is
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: probably not gonna pitch well and Toronto, why are they
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: doing this? Man? Why are they doing this? Max Scherzer
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Blue Jays here. I mean, it's time, man,
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: it's time. It's over for Max Schurzer. He's got a
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: nine point four to nine RRA one point eight two whip.
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, don't do this to yourself. Man. Come on,
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: it's a I don't know, it's it's it's degrading, man.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: He's got a twelve point nine to four homey ram
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: and come on. Uh. He only pitched two and two
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: thirds innings last time against Washington. They actually won the game,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: but he was very shaky again in that when he
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: puts seven guys on base via the hit and the walk.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: There's nothing to like about this man. I know he's
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: gonna be in the Hall of Fame. I don't think
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: he's got it anymore. He's got a high hit rate,
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: a high walk rate, his strike cut rates down. Nothing
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: looks good to me about Shirzer. Here Saint Louis has
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: actually done okay against him, but it's a small sample size.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: Eight at bats, four hitters have faced him. They have
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: a two point fifty average oney eighty three oh ps.
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: Because Mason win does have a home run off him
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: one to one strike out walk ratio. I think this game.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: The way to play it, I think is probably the over,
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: but the money's coming in in the under. I don't
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: really understand that fifty nine percent of tickets on the over,
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: fifty two percent of the couch in the under. These
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: pitchers are These are shaky pitchers, man. At best. I
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: would say the total nine, that is a high total
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: for a Blue Jays game. Man, this is not These
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: are not elite offenses. Year that total is very high
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: for a matchup like this between these two offenses. So yeah,
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: I think the the oddsmakers are kind of telling you
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: something with that total. I think the over is the
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: right way to go in that game. The money's also
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: coming in on Saint Louis fifty nine percent of tickets
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: on Toronto. Toronto's actually a slight favorite. The line kind
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: of has stayed around like a pickham price. Seventy two
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on Saint Louis. So the money or
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: seventy two percent of the cash excuse me on Saint Louis.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: So the actual money is back in Saint Louis. I
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: understand why. I'm insures. It looks like he's completely done
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: and he's probably gonna get the attention of some of
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: the public just because of his name. But yeah, I
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: I don't see that. I mean, Saint Louis might be
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: the right side, just because they're trying to avoid the
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: sweep peer. But I don't know, man, if they're selling
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: it the trade deadline, maybe their mental state might not
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: be quite right and whatever, But they are trying to
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: avoid the sweet peer. And you do have to look
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: at who's Toronto playing next. Here, Toronto's playing Houston. So
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: is Toronto gonna look ahead to that? Maybe? I mean,
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: Houston might draw their attention more because Houston's at least
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: an American League team that's a contending team, So Toronto
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: will at least have a chance to spoil Houston season
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: a little bit if nothing else. But whatever, Yet, I
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: like the over in that game. I think that's the
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: better approach in that one. Mister Pinsley, what's up man?
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: What's up? Man? In seven to twelve hockey Hockey two?
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: What's up New York Post School? Basically it sure as
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: are getting locked out. Yeah, I think that might be
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: true of twenty twenty seven and twenty twenty eight. I
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: don't really understand the workings behind that, but that seems
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: like that is actually what is going to happen to me.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it has to do with the
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: fact that the Dodgers are just owned by this like
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers are basically owned by this huge like capital
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: firm basically, and they're the only team that kind of
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: is like. All the other teams are owned by kind
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: of like individual more individual groups of owners, but the
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are owned by this like conglomerate and they have
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: they have more money than the rest of Major League
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: Baseball combined at this point, which is complete insanity. Even
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: though I know you get like penalized for going over
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: the cap and whatever. There's like a luxury t X.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: It's still totally ridiculous. So I think probably what we're
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: saying here is that now that the Dodgers just got
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: school ball, which is pretty outrageous, because now they're gonna
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: have an even more ridiculous started pitching rootsation once these
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: injured players come back and whatever. They're the favorite to
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: win the World Series again. Obviously, although it is baseball,
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: they might not win it, like baseball is a close
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: sport and these these high paid teams, like these teams
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: with the highest salaries and whatever, tend to actually not
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: win it that much, except the Dodgers have done it recently.
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: They wanted two in a row. So you usually don't
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: get these like dynasties in baseball like this in the
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: modern baseball era, but it might be happening now. And
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: I think what we're saying is that maybe because they
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: were able to make that trade, they were able to
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: do that, and they're so stacked and they have so
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: much more money than everybody else that the rest of
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: the the rest of the owners might be like I'm
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: not sure about this. When it might be that the
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: rest of the owners are just getting together and being like, no,
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: like something needs to change here, so we're not gonna
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: play baseball until something gets fixed here. So something like
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: that might be going on. So yeah, there might not
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: be any baseball next year, which is it's gonna make
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: this show really awesome during the summer. Let's have some
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: WNBA handicapping here. You hate the Dodgers, I'm not a fan, obviously.
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: I don't hate them more than the yank I'm a
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: Red Sox fan, did I can't hate them more than
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. The Yankees are the all time yeah, I mean,
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: the Yankees are the all time most hate herble team.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I can't stand the Dodgers either, So yeah,
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: I don't like what's going on. I don't like either team.
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: If it comes down to Yankees Dodgers, I have to
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: root against the Yankees. I'm a Red Sox fan, but
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: I don't. I mean, that happened two years ago, right,
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Like I was just like, yeah, I choose death basically,
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, I rooted for the Dodgers two years ago
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: because there's no way I can root for the Yankees.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: But if that's the matchup again, I hate it. I
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: absolutely hate it, and last year I didn't have too
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: much rooting interest, and I don't hate the Blue Jays,
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: so I mean I was kind of rooting for the
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: Blue Jays just in my heart, I guess last year
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: because you know, fuck the Dodgers basically, but I think
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: I had some plays that I gave out on the
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: Dodgers during that series, so I kind of my money
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: interest was kind of more on the Dodgers side in
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: the World Series last year, which that somewhat takes precedence sometimes.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: All Right, it's weird when you bet against your rooting interests. Man,
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: let's keep going. Man, We've only done three games here.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: This next game up is another one of my plays here.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: Let's do this. What am I doing here? Yeah? This
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: is another first five under Arizona Cleveland under the four
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: I founded it even money out there. I don't like
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: the bullpens here because the bullpen's just got shelled in
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: the game yesterday. It was a twelve eight final. So
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: even though normally I would probably leave the bullpens in
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: with these two bullpens because they're not that bad, but
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: Cleveland used five guys yesterday. They used like all their
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: better relievers yesterday except for actually not all of them,
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: but they did use their clothes or goddess and Holderman.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: Very good name for a relief pitcher, but a hold
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: Man Holderman. Yeah. And then Arizona, I don't know if
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: I want to trust their bullpen right now either. They
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: had some usage yesterday as well. They used five guys,
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: so I'm just gonna leave the bullpens out. Narrow this
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: down to the first five here. Arizona's era and the
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: bullpen is up to four point two, so I don't
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: like that. Even though they're the sixth ranked bullpen and whip,
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: there's still something sketchy about that bullpen. Cleveland is ranked eighteenth,
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: though they have the better ERA, so I like their
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: bullpend better than Arizona's, but I'm gonna leave them out
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: in this one. We do have two week offenses here,
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: which I like. Arizona has been better recently. They're up
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: to twentieth tie with the Red Sox here, but they're
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: still not a very potent offense by any means, and
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: we know Cleveland is obviously not. Cleveland is thirtieth dead
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: last in offense, and Cleveland plays a lot of under
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: types of games at home so I'm banking on that
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: as well. Here. I know, yesterday's game went way over
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: the total at twelve to eight. First game of the
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: series is only a four to one final, so it
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: was a much more, much lower scoring game in the
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: first game of the series. And hearing some just completely
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: annoying bullshit going on outside. What is going on? It's
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: some somebody's got like some annoying like yip dog going
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: on out, like right outside my window. Get the fuck
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: out of here, man, control your fucking yip dog, like
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what kind of like a chihuahua.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: I fucking hate chihuahuas here. They are the worst breed,
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: if that's what it is. They're so fucking annoying, you know,
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: like drop kick that shit. Fuck god, it's so dude,
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: you can't hear it in my mic, I know, but
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: it's so annoying right now. I can't believe how annoying
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: this is. Just like walk away from my house or something.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: Get away. Yeah, I mean, I hate living this close
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: to a street. All right, What am I talking? What
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: am I talking about? I don't even know. Oh yeah,
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: these starting pitchers here Arizona's going with Merrill Kelly here
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: I know he's had a bad season, but he's pitched
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: better recently, so I'm gonna I'm gonna still back him here.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: I know his numbers are bad four point eight six
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: y r RA one point four or five whit, But
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: I told you I didn't think Merril Kelly was done yet. Like,
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: I know, he's old, but he's not a guy that's
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: ever relied on velocity. He's had a solid career, so
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: I didn't think he was just completely falling off a
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: cliff like this. And there are some things to like
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: about Kelly here. He's actually been way better on the
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: road this year. Three point I too roady RA, so
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: he's definitely backable on the road, and he's been pretty
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: good over the last month or so. He's e RA
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: in July was one point nine to five, so he
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: has definitely started regaining some form here. In his last out,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: and he didn't give up any earned runs at Pittsburgh,
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: that's a good sign. That's a good offense, that's a
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: really good offense at home, and he shut them down.
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: So Kelly is pitching well right now. Cleveland is a
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: much weaker offense in Pittsburgh here, and he's got good
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: numbers against Cleveland really good. Him forty eight at bats,
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: they have no extra base hits against them, eleven strikeouts,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: two walks, one forty six average three twenty six oh ps.
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: So Merril Kelly has kind of dominated Cleveland's hit Cleveland's
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: bats here, so we'll back him, And obviously we're gonna
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: back Gavin Williams on the other side here. Gavin Williams
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: has been pitching basically at an an elite level recently,
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: and he's got a three point seven to one ERA
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: one point oh seven whip. He's good at home three
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: point ZHO nine home y RA, so we have the
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: better home roads. Look at what this guy's done recently.
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: Double digit strikeouts and four starts in a row in
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: his strikeout walk ratio in July fifty one to four
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: with a thirty in thirty one and two thirds innings.
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: That is madness, dude, that is insane. He's just he's
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: blowing batters away right now. This is ridiculous. So yeah,
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna back Williams here as well. He's not getting
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: a lot of run support, but that's good if you're
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: back in the under Yeah, fuck it. We want Cleveland
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: to not score. You know, he's got a really low
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: hit rate here. He's really difficult to hit. He gives
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: up a lot of home runs. I think it's just
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: that he just throws these hard pitches and if anybody
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: connects with them, they send it out of the yard,
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: which I know that could spoil an under like this
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: when we have not much leeway in the first five.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: But I still think he's gonna get the job done here.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's fairly low, his strikeout rate obviously is
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: quite high. And against Arizona he's been good in the
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: past and twenty two at bats to twenty seven average,
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: they have no extra base hits against them, five nineteen
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: ops sixty two strike out walk ratio. So I like
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: how this pitching matchup sets up here. I would probably
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: go full game if the bullpens were reasonably rested at all,
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: but they are not, so we'll go first five on this.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: And the money seems to agree with me on this
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: one as well. Full game total is eight. We have
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: fifty three percent of the tickets on the over seventy
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: four percent of the cash on the under, so the
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: money back in the under. I like to see that.
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: And the other thing I like to see is the
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: money looks like it's coming in on the Arizona side.
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: But part of that is because this line is skyrocketed
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: like Cleveland's in the minus one sixties. Here, I know
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: Williams is really good right now, but Cleveland being favored
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: by that much is absurd, Like their offense is so
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: weak that they really should not be favored like this
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: in the minus one sixties. So the money looks like
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: it is coming in on Arizona seventy four percent of tickets,
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: seventy three percent of the cash on Cleveland. So Cleveland's
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: a public side with money backing Arizona, and I like
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: to see that as an underplayer here. If the money's
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: coming in on the on the worst of the two pictures,
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: that you like to see that the professional money's putting
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: some stock in the worst of the two pictures, because
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: that means they seem to think that that picture is
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: going to pitch pretty well, like it's it's more of
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: a play on that picture, in my opinion, and less
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: of a fade of the better picture, because like we
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: know the Williams is good, so we're not necessarily fading
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: him if we're taking the underdog here, right, So yeah,
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: that's how I look at that game. But yeah, I
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: like it first five under. I like how the money
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: seems to line up with me on that one. So yeah,
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: let's do that as well, all right. Conflicted in the
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: World Series, Yeah, I mean yeah, I probably said that.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't like La or Canada. Yeah,
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: that's right. LA is probably worse. I've been to both places.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but La. I'm not a fan of La, man,
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: I am not. I've had some fun in LA, but
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: it's I don't know, it is not my thing. I
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know what else to say about
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: that White Sox in Tampa Bay. We're already at passed
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: a half hour mark and I've only gone through like
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: four games. This is really bad. I have to get
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: this done, man, this is bad. Tampa Bay won the
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: game yesterday and won nothing. Draftsmason pitch really well again.
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: I know Schultz did come in. I told you I
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: thought it was gonna be Schultz yesterday. Schultz pitched well
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: in the game yesterday when he came in in relief,
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: so Or came in after an opener or whatever. Maybe
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: a good sign for Schultz, but we're gonna handicap this
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: game here today. Let me make sure. Yeah, I was
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: gonna say Cleveland. I don't know if I would actually
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: fade Cleveland, by the way, back to that Cleveland series
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: real quick. Cleveland's on the verge of getting swept, So
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I would necessarily want to fade
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: Cleveland there, you know, like they might have extra motivation
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: they're trying to avoid the sweep. Arizona, I don't know
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: what they really have to play for at this point.
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: They're playing San Diego and next. I mean, I guess,
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: well Arizona actually never mind, Arizona is actually in the
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: thick of it right now that they're in the wildcard
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: hunt right now, so Arizona does still have stuff to
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: play for. But maybe they look ahead to their divisional
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: series against San Diego. The game against Cleveland doesn't matter
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: as much to them. I don't think versus the San
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: Diego series at least anyway. White Sox Tampa Bay here,
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: Where is it gonna begin? With the bullpen usage? I
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: guess White Sox used two relief pitchers yesterday. Tampa Bay
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: used four. But Tampa Bay has been the somewhat better bullpen,
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is ranked third their eras below four at
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: this point. Pretty solid bullpen there. The White Sox not
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: bad either at fourteenth though, so these are both decent
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: bullpens here. Tampa Bay has been the better offense slightly
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: at tenth, White Sox are sixteenth. I don't I still
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: don't know if I buy that Tampa's offense is actually
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: that good. They're going up against Anthony Kay here. He's
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: not good for the White Sox four point twenty five ERA,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: one point three six whip. He's bad on the road
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: five point five six roadyrra K is just I don't
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: know how he's doing what he's doing because he's not
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: really that good of a pitcher. His walk rates kind
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: of high here. He pitched well last time out against
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. They wound up losing the game, but he
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: didn't pitch poorly there. He's got a hit rate that's
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: below one per inning, not too bad. His walk rate's
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: a bit high, though strikeout rate is low. He doesn't
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: strike anybody out. He's better than I thought he would be.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: That's what I'll give you, but I still don't think
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: he's very good. Tampa Bay has been able to hit him.
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: They have twenty at bats against him, a three hundred average,
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: nine to twelve ops, three strikeouts, and six walks, four
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: of those from Das though. But yeah, Kay has not
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: done that well against Tampa. Tampa's going with Griffin Jacks here,
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: Who's been the better of the two pitchers. Jack's three
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: point seven four ERA, one point two to three whip
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: not too bad here. He's been better at homes. The
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: home road splits definitely favor him here, three point four
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: home ERA. He's pitched pretty well in his last couple
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: of starts, had a lot of strikeouts in his last start,
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: had a bad start a couple starts with four of
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: that well, I don't know if it was necessarily bad.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: He give a bunch of runs against the Red Sox,
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: but he kind of got unlucky and that everybody that
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: reached Bay scored against him, and he also had no
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: run support behind him in that game. Jacks has also
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: worked out of the bullpen quite a bit this year.
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: Earlier in the season. He's got a low hit rate here,
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is reasonable and not too bad. A
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is actually pretty high, so Jacks he's
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: the more talented of the two pitchers involved in this
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: game today. However, the White Sox have done some damage
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: against him in twenty five at bats three twenty average,
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: eight to ninety ops, six to two strikeout walk ratio. Yeah,
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking probably over is the way to look at
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: this one. The totals really low at seven and a half.
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: That seems too low to me. Although I know you
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: don't want to try to tell the odds makers that
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: they fucked up, you know what I mean, because usually
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: they do not Like they're not like handing you money here.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: They're not just going here, here's a seven and a
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: half in a game with bad pitching. They're not doing that.
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: But to me, I don't know, man, I still think
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: the over might be the way to play this one.
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: Fifty three percent of tickets, fifty four percent of the
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: cash on the over. The money's back to Tampa Bay
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: as well. I don't really disagree with that. I mean,
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: Tampa at home. It's a rare situation when I'd fade them.
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: I know I did not too long ago. I faded
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: Tampa when they were in a return home spot against
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: Cam Schlittler, and we got Schlitzler as an underdog that
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: was a winner here on the show. We had to
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: do that though seventy seven percent of tickets ninety one
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Tampa Bay, they're around minus
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: one sixty or so here. Yeah, I mean, I still
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: think Jackson is the better pitcher here. Tampa debatably has
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: a better bullpen. If you're gonna play Tampa, it's gonna
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: be like a minus one run line situation or something
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: like that, probably in the full game. But I think
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: I prefer the over, even though I don't like to
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: go over low totals because it always looks way too easy.
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think that would be my lean. There's
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: over seven and a half. Nancy, what's up? Thanks for
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: hanging out all right, full house this morning, everybody, everywhere
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: you look. We got listeners in the chat all right.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: Miami and the Mets. I don't even know if I
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: want to talk about this series. Although we did get
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: a win on the show at the under in the
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: first game in the series. Tried to go with the
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: Mets yesterday and that didn't work out. So the Mets
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: are now one and two in the series. Here seems
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: like the Mets are about to trade Freddy Peralto, though
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: it still doesn't happened, but they pulled him from his
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: scheduled start in the series two days ago. Miami still
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: has kind of something to play for here. So even
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: though Miami's won the last two games, I don't necessarily
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: know if I want to fade them here. Miami is
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: still kind of in the wildcard hunt, even though they
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: went on that really bad stretch. But obviously Miami's playing
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: better again. Recently, Miami used two relief pitchers yesterday, the
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: Mets used three. These bullpens are both decent or good.
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: I guess Miami's ranked fifth, the Mets are ranked seventh.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: I don't think either of them are that good, but
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: they're both good and off bullpens. I would say Miami
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: is the eighth ranked offense. I still struggle to believe that. Really,
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're quite that good. The Mets obviously
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: have not been good. They're twenty eighth offensively, which has
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: been their downfall this season pretty much, although they're starting
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: pitching hasn't really been very good either, Speaking of which,
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: Miami has the upper hand of the pitching here. With
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: San Dial Kontra pitching here. He's having a decent season
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: here in Man. I mean, he wasn't pitching as well
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: after he had his injury issues and whatever, but he
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: is having a good season given his limitations here. Three
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: point eight two ERA, one point two to one whip,
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: that's not bad. He's been worse on the road though,
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: four point sixty six road ray, so not really a
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: guy you necessarily want to back on the road. He
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: pitched really well last time out at home, shutting out
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia for seven innings. One thing you can say about
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: him is he's going deep into these outings. Man, He's
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: not really walking anybody right now. He's looked pretty good
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: over the last month or so. Really, over the last
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: couple months. He's got a reasonably low hit rate at
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: this point. His walk rate is low. He's got a
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: lot of innings. He's a grinder. His strike out rate
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: is way down from what it once was earlier in
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: his career. Though again, like I think, his velocity is
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: just not there more anymore. But he's definitely figured out
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: how to pitch effectively again anyway. Though, numbers against the
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: Mets here are pretty good and seventy three at bats
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: two thirty three average, six point fifty six ops ten
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: to four strikeout walk ratio. Lindor really hits him well,
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: and Semion also does, but everybody else in the lineup
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: struggles against him pretty much. Now. I don't know exactly
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: what to think about this, because some of those numbers
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: were back when he was better than he is now.
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: But he is having a pretty good season right now,
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: so I lean more towards him pitching well than not
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: here and the Mets. Remember what I talked about with
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is that the Mets in Atlanta played a double
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: header five days ago, so they used two different starters
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: on those days or whatever it went with a bullpen
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: game and one of them whatever, So they're off schedule
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: right now. Like Manaia would be the next guy to
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: come pitch for the Mets here, But if they pitch
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: Manaia here, he's on short rest. So I don't know
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: what the Mets are doing here. They have Robert Stock,
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: not Robert Stack. If you have any information, contact Unsolved Mysteries, Burbank, California.
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: Whatever Robert Roberts. I almost said Robert Stack, I picked
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: the wrong day to stop sniff and glue. If people
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: have seen airplane, he's in that as well. One of
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: the best movies of all time. Robert Stock is the
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: opener for the Mets here or I don't know what
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: the Mets are doing here. Man. They might use Manaia
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: even though he's on short rest, they might not. I
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: don't want to trust what the Mets are doing here. Man.
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: Miami is favored, though, which is interesting because the Mets
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: have been favored in every other game in the series.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: So now the odds makers are like, yeah, the Mets
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: are no longer favored here, and a lot of handicappers
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: will look at that and say, well, that means there's
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: gonna be value on the Mets here, because that's too
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: much of a shift when you go from the Mets
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: being a favorite in every game to the that's being
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: an underdog now. But I don't see how you could
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: really back the Mets here. I just don't. Even though
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: the money looks like it agrees with the Mets here
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: seventy six percent tickets, sixty six percent of the cash
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: on Miami. Miami has to have the edge here with
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: all contra against a bullpen game. The line's gone down
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: a little bit. It's it looks maybe too cheap of
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: a price that scares me. Man, it looks way too
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: easy to play the Marlins here, But I think that's
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: probably my lean. It's the Marlins in that game. I
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: want nothing to do with the Mets, with whatever the
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: hell they're doing there. Even if it is Manaia, that
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: doesn't really do that much for me. And I can
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: look at his numbers real quick. Is he in their
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: starting rotation? Yet he is? Let me see Mania against
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: on the Marlins. He's bad, so that that just reinforces it.
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: Like if Manaia is gonna come into this game, Yeah,
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: I would still back Miami here. And what I would
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: say is I would pick no listed starter for the Mets.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: I would pick a Contra must start for Miami, but
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: I would not pick a starter for the Mets. You
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: have no idea what they're doing. I guess Stock actually
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: gonna start. I have no fucking clue. So yeah, that's
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: how I would play that game is I'll Contra must
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: must start Mets action and I would take the Marlins.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: But there are a lot of market indicators that you
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: should not be doing that, so I'm not gonna do it. Yes,
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: Airplane one of the best, just it's such like quick
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: hitting joke after joke. It's so crazy you have to
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: watch it multiple times to even get every joke because
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: it's just so rapid fire. Yes, Jay Man, what's up?
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: Thanks for coming back? Robert Stock. I mean he's a
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: relief pitcher and he's really old at this point. So
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: as long as you're not saying that. If you're saying
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: that about Robert Stack, I'll come fight you. Yes, I
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: don't want the Mets there, man, I mean the market
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: read is is on the Mets. Maybe I have no balls,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: but I don't want I don't want to do that.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: It looks like it's a huge pitching edge towards Miami,
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: So why would I want to do that? This next
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: game up almost made the cut for me. Pirates Reds.
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: I like the first five under in this one. I
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: hate the bullpens. Of course. The Reds have won two
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: out of the three games of the series so far.
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh won the game yesterday. The Reds beat Paul Schemes
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: during the series. They didn't beat Braxton Ashtrap yesterday. I
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: think he pitched yesterday. He's good. The Reds used four
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers. They're not a good bullpen, so I would
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: not back their bullpen. Pittsburgh used two. They're not a
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: good bullpen either, so I wouldn't want to back them either.
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: They're twenty fourth and twenty fifth in bullpen Pirates and Reds, respectively.
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: Not good. Pirates are obviously the better offense. They ranked third,
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: although they're not quite as good on the road. Cincinnati
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: twenty second. Cincinnati having some major offensive issues. Some talk
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: about them trading some of their bats here too. I
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: don't know if that's gonna happen or not. Mitch Keller
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: is getting the start for Pittsburgh. He's been mediocre this season.
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: He was good at the beginning of the season, and
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: then he was bad for a while. Now he's starting
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: to pitch a a little bit better again. He's got
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: a four point eighty three RA one point three to
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: one WHIP. He's pretty good on the road though, three
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: point nine to nine road ERA two to twenty six
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: opponent batting average, so he might be backable on the road.
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: And he's been good in his last two starts at
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: the very least, and one was on the road against
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, so that's a decent sign that he's been
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: able to pitch well against a good line, Well, do
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: we consider the Aegis to be good anymore offensively? I
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: don't know. I guess that's another question. They've been bad
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: on offense for a while now, so I don't know,
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: but I still think that's a good sign for Keller.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: And he pitched well again to start after that against Arizona.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: Keller He's got a hit rate that's a little bit
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: below one per inning, which is alright. His walk rate
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: is okay. His strike up rate is definitely low. He
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: doesn't really strike guys out. He's been good against the
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: Reds though, in one hundred and forty three at bats.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: We have a huge sample here, one eighty nine average,
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: five eighty three ozh ps. You usually do not see
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: a batting average that low in that big of a
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: sample size. So the Reds have not really been able
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: to hit Keller. Thirty five strikeouts, fourteen walks. It's just
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: a low strikeout rate there. He doesn't really strike guys out,
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: so that ratio looks pretty bad, but it's because of
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: the low strikeout rate there. Chase Burns is pitching for Cincinnati,
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: so that's also good for Cincinnati. He's been really good.
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: Two point foury ray one point one two whip. He's
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: been slightly better at home as well, two point two
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: eight homy Ray with a sub two hundred opponent batting average.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: He gave up five runs last time out against Cleveland,
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: which he might think looks bad, but only one of
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: them was earned. We got screwed in that game. I
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: think I give on an under in that game or
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: something absolutely got screwed there. The fielding was just totally
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: miserable behind Burns in that game. It was not Burns's
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: fault that they lost that game. Burns has had some
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: walk issues recently, but he's still a really good pitcher.
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: He's got a really low hit rate. He's been really
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: difficult to hit. His walk rate is still decent, strikeout
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: rate is high, so yeah, his overall number is still good.
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: He really still doesn't put too many guys on base,
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: especially because he's very difficult to hit, and the Pirates
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: have not been able to do that. In fifty two
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: at bats, they have not been able to hit him
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: twenty one strikeouts, three walks to twelve average, five to
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: eighty one ops. So yeah, I like the first five
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: under in this one. I like both starting pitchers how
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: they match it. Up here. I don't like the Bullpens
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: at all, so I would take them out of the equation.
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: Full game total is at eight and a half. The
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: money seems to back the under here. Sixty eight percent
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: of the tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: the under. First five is what I would do that one.
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: You could probably find a four and a half on it.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: I'm scared off of it a little bit by not
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: fully trusting Keller, and also Pittsburgh's offense may be able
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: to get something going here there. I mean, they're a
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: dangerous offense for sure, so the other the unders that
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: I've given out so far against less dangerous offense is
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: at the very least So I don't know, man, but
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: I still like it. This one was very close to
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: being on my card first five under in Pittsburgh Cincinnati,
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: so I do like that one, all right. Texas and Houston.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: Houston is on the verge of sweet peer. This is
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: a big series. Houston came into the series a half
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: game behind Texas. Now they're up one and a half games,
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: so Texas might come up with a little bit of
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: extra motivation here to try to get something in the series.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: They do not want to get swept in the series.
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: If they want to try to, I mean, they'll still
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: be in the race, but this would be bad from
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: them obviously. If they get swept, is Houston gonna look
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: ahead to Toronto? Probably not so. I think Houston will
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: still show up in the series because it is still
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: a big match up here, and that's kind of the problem.
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: The problem I have with Texas is that I don't
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: think Houston is going to totally lack motivation here, and
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: I don't like the pitching matchup for Texas here. I
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: think the pitching matchup favors Houston, and Houston debatably might
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpend here too, although they used five
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday, which is not good. Texas used four.
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: It's weird to say, but Texas bullpen they've been struggling.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: They're at nineteenth right now, Houston is fifteenth. So Houston
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: might have a little bit of a bullpen advantage here.
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: I think they have a bigger starting pitching at Joe
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: and they have an offensive edge. Houston is seventh, Texas
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: is seventeenth. Started pitching. Kumar Rockers pitching for Texas. He's
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: been pitching well over his last couple of starts. He's
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: got okay numbers here four point h three E Ray
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: one point two to nine Whip. He's actually a little
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: bit better on the road ERA wise three point six
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: Roady Iral, though his opponent batting average is worse on
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: the road, and it kind of would make sense that
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: he'd be better at home because Texas. We know Texas
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: Stadium is a pitcher friendly ballpark. But whatever, he's debatably
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: better on the road. He was good in his last
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: two starts after he got lit up in his start
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: prior to that. He pitched well, one hit shutout the
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: White Sox at home though, and then he had another
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: good home start against Seattle. However, his last bad start
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: at the start before those two, yeah, guess who that
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: was against. Yeah, that was against Houston at home and
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: Houston lit him up. He also faced Houston back in
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: May and did not do that well in that start either.
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: Looks like he's not that good against Houston. Although overall
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: he's got a reasonably low hit rate. I mean, he
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: has a low hit rate here. Yeah, his walk rates
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: reasonably low as well. His strike up rate is not
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: too high, but I mean, he's just not a huge
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher against Houston, though, as I was alluding to,
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: he has not done well. In forty two at bats
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: two eighty six average, nine to seventy six OPS, ten
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: to three strike out walk ratio ratio is good, but
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: the rest of those numbers not good. So I don't
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: think I trust Rocker here. Houston's going with Peter Lambert,
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: who has resurrected his career this season. Lambert's been good
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: a three point zero six ERA, one point one to
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: five whip. He's been almost the same home and away,
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: not really big, not significant splits here. ERA is slightly
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: worse at home at three point one five. Lambert had
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: a good month of July. He allowed two or fewer
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: earned runs in every start in July, and he did
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: it in all but one start in June two. Lambert's
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: pitching well here. Man good command numbers in July as
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: well overall numbers. Low hit rate, I mean, he's been
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: hard to hit. His walk rate is slightly high, but
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: with combined with the hit rate still pretty good here
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: not putting a lot of guys on base. Strikeout rate
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: is close to one per inning, which is not bad.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: Numbers against Texas are not so good though in fifty
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: five at bats, two fifty five average, eight ninety two
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: ops allowed though twelve six strikeout walk ratio, but five
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: of the six walks or Jock Peterson who actually doesn't
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: hit him that well but has two one runs of
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: five walks against somebody's average, isn't that good? I hate
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: this Windows thing. When you like click on the header,
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: it like expands the screen. I like to keep it.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: I have an ultra wide monitor, so I like to
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: keep the window narrower because it looks better when I
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: share the screen. But whatever, what do we do with
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: this game? Man? I mean, both pitchers really don't have
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: good matchup numbers here, so I wouldn't really disagree with
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: an over, and I don't really like the bullpends either.
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: And you could go over eight and a half year. See,
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: it looks like you'll be able to get the over
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: a number that's below that key number of nine seventy
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: four percent of the tickets eighty six percent in the
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: cash on the over. Yeah, that might be the best
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: recommendation I have in this one. Aileen Houston as well.
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: I think Lambert is better than Rocker. I don't know
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: about the bullpens. Maybe Houston first five, but you probably
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: have to pay a price for that. Houston has moved up,
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: so it looks like some actual money has come in
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: on Houston to drive them up for minus one twenty
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: six to minus one forty or so here seventy one
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty four percent of the cash on
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: the Astros. I think, yeah, first five maybe your best advantage,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: although I think Houston might have a bullpen inched juice,
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: so maybe you could go full game on it, depending
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: on what the price is. I don't really love playing
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: on teams that are on the verge of a sweep, though,
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: because I think the other team's gonna have extra motivation,
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. I think maybe the over might
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: be the better approach there. Yankees and Cubs, they've split
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: the series as well. The Cubs are able to get
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: the win yesterday five to two, even though I think
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: the Cubs had a better pitching matchup in Game one
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: and they lost that game. But then one yesterday Yankees
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: were struggling offensively here man two runs each in these
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: two games here, although if you remember yesterday, the wind
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: was blowing in in Wrigley yesterday or was that yes
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: I think that was yesterday, right, Yeah, so the total
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: was extremely low in the game. Yes, Oh it was
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: David Peterson. David Peterson pitched for the Cubs, and I
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: think he must have gotten them the win yesterday. It's
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: it's laughable, man, it is so laughable, Like you gotta
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: be kidding me. The Cubs used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: Yankees have the better bullpen. They used four. Yankees have
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: a very good bullpen. They're ranked number four, but they're
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: second in ERA behind the Red Sox. Cubs are not
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: bad in the bullpen. There's sixteenth with the arrays alright
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: below four. At least. Yankees offense is really falling off.
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: They're fifteenth right now. They've been a bad They've legitimately
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: been a bad offense without judge, which I didn't think
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: was the case for a while. But yeah, I mean
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: the numbers bear that out for now. Though this Yankees
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: offense is still danger to me. I think they could
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: still just unload on you at any given time. I
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: don't know. Even without judge. Cubs are ranked fourth on offense,
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: though they've been a strong offense. Cubs are definitely a
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: decent team. Of course, both teams are in the playoff
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: mix here. Obviously, the Yankees will definitely make the playoffs.
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: Starting pitching here looks like it's a big mismatch in
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: favor of the Yankees. But you look at the price
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: on this and it looks pretty easy to play the Yankees,
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: even though they you got to say they clearly have
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: the better starter here. Garrett Cole is pitching for the Yankees.
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: He's still pitching well, a three point five to seventy array,
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: one point zero nine whip. He's been a little bit
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: worse on the road three point eight six Roady Ray.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: His opponent batting average is significantly worse on the road though,
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: at two seventy one compared to one eighty six at home,
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: So he is worse on the road, but he's still
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: pretty good. He pitched well in his last start on
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: the road, also in Chicago. The Yankees have been in
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: Chicago for a while. That was against the White Sox.
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: He's been good like the whole month of July. He
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: was really good thirty nine to four strike got walk
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: ratio after he was a little bit rough in June.
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: But yeah, Cole is obviously pitching well again. He's found himself.
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: He pitched against a lot of pretty good offenses in
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: that stretch in July and he shut basically all of
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: them down. So he's been pitching well. He's got a
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: low hit rate, low walk rate, pretty high strikeout rate,
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: good numbers across the board for him. Numbers against the
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: Cubs are also good. In fifty seven at bats, two
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: to eleven average, six to seventy six ops, sixteen to
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: two strike out walk ratio. So yeah, the signs are
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: the Coles should pitch well here. Colin Ray is pitching
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: for the Cubs. He's obviously the lesser pitcher, and he's
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: not very good. Seven point of seven that would be
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: really bad. Four point six seventy RA at least that's
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: more palatable. One point four whip is not very good,
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: though he's been reasonably good at home, though three point
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: three to three home the RA. He's legitimately better at home,
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: so he's in the better of his home road splits
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: and cole is not. Ray pretty good last time out
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: against Saint Louis, although he's not really striking anybody out,
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: but he's been okay recently, at least good enough that
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: he's not like killing his team here. He's got a
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: still kind of a high hit rate here, his walk
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: rates not too bad, kind of gives up a lot
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: of home runs, which is not great. He's a bit
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: fly ball heavy. Strike out rate is low. He doesn't
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: really strike anybody out against the Yankees, though, believe it
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: or not, he has good numbers against him. In forty
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: three at bats, He's held him to one to eighty
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: six average, six ZO four ops eight four strike out
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, which is not good. But the rest of
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: those numbers are good. So Ray might actually pitch okay here.
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: This maybe could be an under. But the problem with
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: that is this is another win blowing in game in
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: Wrigley and this is ridiculous. With Colin Ray on the mound.
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: The total is six and a half. I mean again,
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: what can you do with that? And by the way,
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: yesterday's game landed seven, So if you tried to go
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: under the six and a half, yep, it landed on
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: the key number, even though the key number wasn't necessary
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: in the game yesterday because it was a five to
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: two final. But yeah, the game snuck over the total
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: yesterday six and a half. I'm telling you, man, it's
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: just there's like there is no room for any error there, Like, yeah,
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: I can't do it, but I generally I would lean
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: towards an under in this one. Seventy eight percent of tickets,
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: ninety percent of the cash on the over. But both
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: pictures look like they match up. Okay, here one is
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: actually good and the bullpens are both pretty decent or
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: decent or good. So yeah, I still think an under
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: is inconsideration here. It's just I don't know, man, if
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: you can't find a seven, I'm not gonna be doing it.
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: And the money is also backing the Cobs, which I
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: find to be ridiculous. Seventy one percent of the tickets
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: on the Yankees, seventy four percent of the cash of
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. It's again, it's about the value. I'm pretty sure.
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: And it's like, oh, well, you know that you're going
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: to pay a tax for the Yankees. They're road favorite
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: because Garrett Cole is on the mountain. It's the Yankees.
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: But Cole is obviously better than Colin Ray. So would
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: I want to jump in and play the Cubs here? No,
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: I think the Yankees have the edge throughout the game,
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: throughout the pitching, so I would lean towards the Yankees
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: in that one, but the fact that the money's coming
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: in towards Colin Ray there kind of indicates that the
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: professionals do kind of like the game to be lower scoring,
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: because again, lower scoring is going to help out the
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: underdog and to help the underdog stay in that game
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit longer. So those are my thoughts on it.
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: That's not a game I'm gonna be wanted to deal
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: with though. All right, what time is it?
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: Oh?
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: All right, yeah, Actually we've gotten back on track here.
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: I'm burning through these games now. Kansas City, Colorado, this
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: is man, this is an ugly, ugly series. Colorado's on
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: the version of a sweep. They wanted it in a
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: very high scoring game. Is that I was wrong about that.
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: I thought the starters might do okay yesterday that was
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: not the case. So Kansas City finally put up some
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: runs in one of these hit or friendly ballparks of
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: Colorado put up more runs and won twelve to six yesterday. No,
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: Colorado's on the verge of sweep here. Maybe Kansas City
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: has some extra effort here. Colorado's gonna be playing Tampa
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: Bay next. Maybe they consider that to be bigger they should.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, who cares about Kansas City? Sorry Zach, but
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: Colorado they've won the series. Maybe they start looking ahead
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: to Tampa Bay. I don't know. Colorado doesn't have a
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: whole lot to play for at this point. Both bullpens
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: here are bad, so I would avoid the bullpens. Colorado
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers, Kansas City used four. I don't
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: really care what the usage was. I don't like these
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: bullpens at all. Colorado's twenty seventh. Kansas City is thirtieth,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: although the A's still have the worst bullpen era, but
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: Kansas City is second worst. Hitting wise, Colorado has been
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: pretty good. They're fifth and Kansas City is eighteenth. So
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: these officers are definitely capable of producing runs here, and
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be another high total here, especially because the
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: bullpens suck. But also the pitching isn't really that good,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: although I think the better of the two starters here
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: is Seth Lugo, who's pitching for the Royals. Advanced analytics
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: guys loathe Seth Lugo, but he's been alright, a four
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: point two two week one point three to seven whip.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: He's been not as good on the road though, four
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: point nine to seven roady Ray, and maybe that's not
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: a good sign pitching in cores Field here and his
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: opponent batting average on the roads almost three hundred. He's
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: been pretty good recently though. His last three starts have
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: all been good. He's allowed three or few earned runs
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: in all of them, although they're mostly against somewhat weaker offenses,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: except you pitch well against the Twins on the road
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: last time out, and that's not a totally weak offense there.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Lugo looks like he's at least an okay
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: form right now. But his hit rate is kind of
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: high on the season, his walk rate is mediocre, his
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: strike gout rate is kind of low. It doesn't really
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: strike anybody out for course field. You got to know
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: how many home runs this he allow? Well, he's a
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: little bit home run conducive. He's allowed fifteen in one
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: hundred and twenty three to two thirds inning. That's not awful,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: but it's not great. And he is kind of a
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: fly ball pitcher but not too bad. But yeah, he
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: is more flyball heavy than groundball heavy, let's put it
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: that way. Against Colorado, though he's been good generally in
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: fifty three at bats, sixteen to three strikeout walk ratio
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: two twenty six average, six seventy seven ops, so lugo.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: He's been good against Colorado. At least he might be
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: able to do enough to maybe get Kansas City through,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: at least when he's pitching here. Kyle Freeland is pitching
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: for the Rockies, not good. A seven point three four ERA,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: one point five to five whip. He's better at home though,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: believe it or not, which is still bad six point
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: three to three homey RA, so that's still not good.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: He's not been pitching well recently. He's definitely struggled. He's
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: had a good command ratio here in the month of July,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: or he did in the month of July, but he
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: still was giving up a lot of runs because he's
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: way too hittable. That's his problem. His hit rate is
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: insanely high, like it's got to be one of the
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: highest hit rates in Major League Baseball. He's along way
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: more than one hit per inning. It's ridiculous, and he
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: allows a lot of home runs. Since he allows that
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: many hits, he's also a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: and he allows a lot of home runs. His home
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: run rate is worse than set Lugos, and his strike
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: up rates not really that good either. His walk rate
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: is okay. He doesn't really walk that many guys, but
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: when you're that hittable, it doesn't matter. Like he's just
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: he's just serving up batting practice basically, which is not good.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: And Kansas City has done okay against him in forty
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: four at bats three eighteen average, although they haven't really
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: hit him for that much power seven to twenty seven
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: ops five, zero strike out walk ratio. But I think
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: the way to play this game is the Royals in
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: the first five. I would back Lugo over Freeland here.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: The money seems to agree with that, and you're probably
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: gonna get them at a little bit of an underdog price.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: Believe it or not, hilarious that the excon the Rockies,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: the Colorado Rockies, are a favorite man the odds makers.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: The odds makers are really disrespecting Kansas City here because
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: I thought that they had Colorado as the worst team
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: in baseball, but some of it might be because of
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: their offensive advantage, but this is ridiculous that they've moved
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: up from minus one twelve to around minus one thirty. Yeah,
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: I would take care City in the first five. You'll
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: probably get them at a slight underdog price. It's probably
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: not gonna be as big of an underdog price and
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: maybe close to a pick them, but I think that's
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: the way to look at this game. Is Royal's first
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: five fifty four ticket seventy nine percent of the cash
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: on Kansas City, so that agrees with me. The full
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: game total is eleven and a half or twelve, with
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: money coming in pretty strongly. On the over, I mean
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: I don't have a great read there on the total.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: I mean there are more indicators towards an over than
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: an under, I would say, and both pitchers give up
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: some fly balls here. Both bullpens suck. At least one
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: of the starting pitchers really just serves it up, which
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: is Freeland. So yeah, they're probably more indicators of an
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: over than an under there. But man, that is a
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: high total, and that if it's that high, I want
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: every piece of it to be in line with it.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: Rockies have already won more games this year than last year.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, they've been somewhat competitive in some of these
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: games against some of the better teams, but I don't
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: think this does not look like a a good matchup
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: for them to me. So yeah, I mean yeah, those
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: are my thoughts on that. I'll be right back and
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: then I'll do the rest of this. I have one
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: more baseball play, I think in one more game that
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: I almost put on my card, and then WNBA. There
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: are four games. I don't have anything in the WNBA
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: here today that I'm treading a bit lightly. I know
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: with the WNBA, I'm trying to be selective. Man, I
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: just don't see a great angle really in the WNBA.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: But I'll talk about those games anyway. Obviously, I'll be
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: right back. Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: were on OWN seven run over the last two days
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: after tonight. It was just complete bullshit. So that's that's
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: how I'm gonna start off this show. Horrible Sunday one
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: and five. I don't even know what to tell you
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: about that. I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good day. All
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: OWN four that have not had a good season. Man
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: continues I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm trying to
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: burn my browins hack, Man, I don't know what is
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: going on with the Bruins arch hape? Is that what
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: it is? I don't even know it's March ninth, I
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: think who even knows? Man, I don't know what day
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: it is anymore. I don't even know what day this anymore. Man,
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: Back with you after the worst day that I could
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: I die, at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: it did not go well for me. Own five the
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: about this anymore. To the slump, the slump discontinuous, The
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: know what I should do at this point other than
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: the end it all all right? Next game on the
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: schedule is oh, my last play. It looks like, uh,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee and Angels. Yeah, let's do it this one. I
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: couldn't find a better number on this, but I like
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: the first five under here. This will be on my
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: card under three and a half at even money. I
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: mean I could look again, but the four was just
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: too heavily priced. It was like minus one thirty eight
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: or something. If it was like minus one thirty I
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: might consider it because I kind of liked that extra
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: half run between three and a half and four. You
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: could go full game on this under seven and a
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: half if you want to. I wouldn't necessarily disagree with Actually,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: I don't even see a four at all. I just
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: see three and a half's plastered across the board. But
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: I like the under here. The problem is, I don't
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: like Jim's bullpen. I just don't want to deal with them.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go first five under and hope that
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: it gets there for us here. I like the starting
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: pitching here. Obviously. Anaheim used three relief pitchers yesterday. I
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: don't like their bullpen. I do like Milwaukee's. They used three.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: They did use their closer, though, Miguil. They've used him
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: two days in a row, although not for too many pitches,
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: but he's probably not gonna be available today. Milwaukee has
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: won both games in the series, by the way, so
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: we can talk about the side here as well. Milwaukee
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: is twelve the bullpen. They're definitely the better bullpen. The
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: Angels are not like pitiful, but they're twenty first and
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: I don't really trust their bullpen much. Offensively, the Brewers
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: are the better team as well. They are six, so
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: we are dealing with one good offense here. Anaheim is
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: not good at twenty fourth and their offense is not
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: good at home either. This game is on Peacock, by
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: the way, but you can see what I'm doing here
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: with this under here. I mean I like both these
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers. Jacob Mizzerowski. I mean, yeah, we know, this
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: guy's like basically touchable one point five to eighty ra
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: point seventy five whip is insane. He's been basically as
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: good on the road one point six y six road,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah right. He's sometimes doesn't go that deep into these
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: outings though, because he's just striking everybody out and throwing
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: a lot of pitches low. They actually limited his pitches
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit in his last couple of starts, so
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: he'll definitely make you. I think he'll make it through
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: five here, though, I mean it's rare that he doesn't
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: like I think I don't know why he got pulled
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: after four in that game against the Mets. If there was,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know, like an injury concern or rain. I
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: don't know what was going on there, but he bounced
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: back and he had a ton of strikeouts last time
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: out against Colorado. His strikeout walk ratio July thirty nine
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: to one is a thirty nine strikeout walk ratio. Good. Yeah,
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: it's so insane. He's got a really low hit rate.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: He's one of the most unhittable pitchers in Baseball's walk
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: rates not even high. So usually guys like him at
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: least have some wildness, which he did last year, but
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: he doesn't really have that issue either. He's got a
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: ton of strikeouts. I mean, he's the best pitcher in
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: baseball and Anaheim has never faced him before, So good
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: luck to their offense, because you know, that's an advantage
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: to the starting pitcher when the offense has never seen
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: him before, especially when it's the best pitcher in baseball.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: And this offense isn't even that good. So it would
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: shock me if miss Rawski doesn't burn through this Anaheim
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: line up here. And we're also gonna back Walbert Urania again.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: On the other side, I think he's pretty good man.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: He's really young still. I think he's gonna turn into
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: something pretty good if he hasn't already. He's got good
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: numbers here anyway, two point seventy ray, one point two
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: to six whip is a little bit iffy because he
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: walks too many guys, but he seems to be getting
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: that under control a little bit, and he's been pretty
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: good at home with a one to eighty six opponent
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: batting average at home, although his e ray is a
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: little bit higher at home at two point seven to seven,
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: but that doesn't worry me much. We backed him in
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: the first five, I think, in his last game, right,
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: and we got that right, and then the bullpen blew it.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: So again, I don't trust this bullpen here, but I'm
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: pretty sure we won on the first five against Houston.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: Last time you pitched, he pitched well in that game
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: before the bullpen screwed him over. He's pitched well really
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: throughout the last month. He's been good, except his walk
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: rate was high at the beginning of well really throughout
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: the season, his walk rate's been high, but his first
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: two starts in July it was bad, but his walk
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: rate went way down his last two starts, So he
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: seems like maybe He's in a little bit better form
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: right now, getting that walk rate under control a little bit.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: Overall in the season, he's very difficult to hit. His
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: hit rates low, his walk rate is high. I admit,
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: like that's his one problem is the walks. He's got
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: a lot of ground ball outs, though he doesn't really
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: allow a lot of home runs or anything like that
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: at all. His strike got rate I'd like to see
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: me a little bit higher. It's not bad, but yeah,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: I mean, he still has the ability to strike guys out.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: And the other thing I like here though, is that
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee has never faced him before. So we have two
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: talented young pitchers here going at it that sounds pretty hot,
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: and the offense have never seen either one of them,
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: so I think that's an extra advantage to both pitchers.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: So I had to find a way to throw this
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: on the card man, and the money agrees with me.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: The money agrees with me on all of these unders
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: that I'm giving out as either plays or leans. Here,
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: fifty five percent of tickets on the over, eighty six
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the under. Yeah, we'll take
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: it full. We'll take it first five. I worry too
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: much about Anaheim's bullpen. Man, if you want to do
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: it full game, you could. I mean, I'm not gonna
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: disagree with it full game. I just think this is
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: where we have the biggest advantages when the starters are
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: on the mound. But it's seven and a half, so
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: you do get under that key number seven and a
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: half in the full game. Anaheim's bullpen could just blow
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: the whole thing, though. That's the thing. I don't expect
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's to blow it. Their bullpen's good, although again, their
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: closer is probably unavailable here for the side, Milwaukee is
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: just laying way too much of a price minus two thirty.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, I know, Anaheim's not got much to play
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: for here, but no Milwaukee's. They already got a big
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: lead in their division. This series doesn't mean much to
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee and they've already won it. Milwaukee is again one
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: of those They're one of those teams on the version
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: of a sweet peer. So Anaheim falls into that category
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: where they're a home team trying to avoid a sweet peer.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: And for Milwaukee, who do they playing next? I believe
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: they have a big I think it's yeah, Pittsburgh, I
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: was gonna say, I think it's a big divisional series. Yeah,
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: so Milwaukee might look ahead to Pittsburgh that series matters
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: more than this one does. They've already won the series,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: So I would lean Anaheim first five here, man, I
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: know that sounds insane, like what I really want to
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: fade miss here? Not really, but because it's gonna be
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: a low total, well it's a low total, so it's
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: expected to be a low scoring game. Laying this kind
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: of price with Milwaukee you can't do it. I mean,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: there's no way minus two thirty something, so you're gonna
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: get Anaheim is a pretty big underdog in the first five.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: You might be able to take them like plus a
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: run on the run line or something in the first five.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: So I would do something like that. If I was
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: going to look at the side, I would take Anaheim
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: to hang around in the game in the first five
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: because I think the pitching could be a duel there,
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: you know. So that's what I think about that game.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: Next game up is another team trying to avoid a sweep.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure with the A's against Detroit. Wait, am
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: I right about that? Yeah? Detroit's won both games in
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: the series, thirteen to one and then eight to six,
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: So Detroit is taking advantage of this hitters ballpark here,
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: and we've seen some high totals again. Since the Red
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: Sox are no longer in town, the A's have been
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: having high scoring games at home again. Here. The question
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: with Detroit is what is their mindset going to be?
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: This was what I was alluding to early in the show,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: Like when teams become sellers and they're the biggest seller
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: at the trade deadline, they traded Schoolable, so that means, yeah,
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: we're not focusing on winning this season anymore. So when
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: that happens, a lot of times that team will go
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: on a stretch where they won't play well, you know
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: what I mean. It's kind of like the dream crusher
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: because I've been saying, well, they're not out of it,
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: like they're five and a half games out. Maybe they
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: were thinking, maybe we're still in this thing. But now
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: that it's definitely decided, they just traded their ace pitcher away,
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: that means they're planning on the future. So you might
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: see Detroit being a bad mental state for a little
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: bit of a stretch here. And baseball is a long season,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: so sometimes it'll be like a little bit of a
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: lull and then that team will kind of find themselves
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: again and be like, let's play well, like you know,
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: for the remaining stretch of the season. But right after
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: a big trade like this happens, I think their mental
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: state might be bad here. Plus the A's are trying
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: to what a sweet pier, so I think it's not
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: a great situation for Detroit here. I don't remember who
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: Detroit plays next. I did bring it up. I don't
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: think it's anybody that good though. They're actually they're playing
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: Seattle next, so I don't know. I don't know if
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: that's really a look ahead maybe. I mean, Seattle is
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: in the thick of it for the playoff race, just
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: because they're obviously they could still win their division and
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: that's their path to the playoffs. For Seattle, that would
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: have been Detroit's path too, but no more schooable. Detroit
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: has the better bullpen here, there's no question about that.
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: The use three relief pitchers. Yesterday, the A's have a
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: horrible bullpen. They used three guys as well. But this
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: A's bullpen, they're ranked twenty eighth and whip but they
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: might be the worst bullpen. I mean, their era is
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: five point six y four. This is, yeah, like a
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: tragically bad A's bullpen here. Detroit is better. They are
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: ranked seventeenth, but they're era's below four, so they're not
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: really a bad bullpen. The A's, I would say, have
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: the better offense, but Detroit's up to eleventh, tied with
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: Minnesota and the Giants. Can the Giants just get out
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: of here? Man? I mean, I still I don't know
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: what to tell you about that. The A's are fourteenth,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: But yeah, the A's have been struggling offensively recently. Now,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: if you want to fade Detroit here, like I was thinking, situationally,
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: it looks like you do want to try to play
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: the A's here based on the situation, because Detroit could
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: be in a dream crusher scenario here. They've already won
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: the series gauge jump. Our favorite is on the mound
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: for the A's here, But I don't know if that's
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: enough to back the A's here. And obviously, if if
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna back the A's at all, it's gonna be
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: only in the first five. There's no way you can
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: back their bullpen. But Kiir Montero, mister uh, mister slender
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: man on the mound for the Tigers here six. As
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: you guys pointed out yesterday, he's been good though H
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: three point three four ERA one point to whip for him.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: I will say that Detroit has used an opener in
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: front of him often, so if you're gonna try to
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: play this game, you might want to pick just pick
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: Cage Jump to start here and don't pick a starter
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: for Detroit because Montero will pitch most likely, but whether
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: or not he starts might be up in the air,
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: so we'll see. But he'll either start or he'll come
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: in after an opener. Montero was actually working out of
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: the bullpen for a bit after he was he was
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: actually pitching well in the starting rotation. But he's gonna
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: be I'm I'm expecting he'll start because with Schoovill now
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: out of the rotation, Montero is probably just gonna be
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: in the rotation. But he's been back kind of in
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: that starter's role for a few games or few starts
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: now for him. Didn't really pitch well last time on
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: against Baltimore, though, but he was good on the road
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: against the Cubs to start before that. He's got good
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: numbers on the season, pretty much the low hit rate,
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: low walk rate, but he doesn't strike anybody out, so
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: he doesn't fool anybody. His strikeout rate is not good,
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: but he also doesn't really allow a lot of home
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: runs or a lot of fly ball. His flyball rate
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: is a little bit high, but I don't think he's
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: that flyball heavier that home run could do so. So
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: he's not horrible for a stadium like this, but we
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: will see against the A's though he's struggled against the A's.
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: It's a small sample though seven at bats seven of
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: the sous six of their hitters have faced him four
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: to twenty nine average, one thousand, seventy one oh ps,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: one to one strike out walk ratio, one extra base
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: hit a double from Walton. So yeah, maybe he's a
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: little bit untrustworthy here against the A's lineup Gauge Jump,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: As I said, it's pitching for the A's. I think
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: Jump is a good pitcher, but unfortunately he's having to
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: pitch in the stadium, which is not a good thing,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: and he's been much worse at home obviously for obvious reasons.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: This stadium is horrible to pitch in. His overall numbers
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: for ERA not too bad, especially for a rookie, that's
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: not bad. But he's got a one point four whip,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: which is not very good. He's been way worse at home,
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: Like I said, five point twenty four home here with
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: a three to zero six opponent batting average at home,
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: way better numbers on the road. So why if I
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: was him, I'd want to get the hell out of
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: this organization. Man like you. You do not want to
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: spend your first two seasons in this fucking stadium. Man.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe when they moved to Las Vegas they'll
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: have a more reasonable stadium, but this is ridiculous. Jump
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: looked like he was good last time out against the
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. The Red Sox did not get anything going
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: against him, and he actually won the game. That was
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: one of the few Red Sox losses recently. That was
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: the only loss that the Red Sox took in that series.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: Jump shut them out for six innings, so he pitched
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: pretty well, but he did walk a bunch of guys,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: and that's been kind of the issue with him. He's
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: striking a lot of guys, but he's walking a lot
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: of guys, so his issue hasn't really been the home runs.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: Believe it or not so, even though he pitches in
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: this home run coulduce the stadium. He's been a little
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: bit too hittable just in general. One hit per inning
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: not very good. Strike out rate is good, well over
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: one per inning, but the walk rate has been the
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: main issue. He's walking too many guys. I think he's
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: a good pitcher, though. I think he's got some talent.
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: He does have kind of a high fly ball rate,
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: which might mean maybe more home runs will come against
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: him here. He might pitch well here though, because he's
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: facing a Detroit team that has not seen him before,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: so he does have that advantage the unfamiliarity, though he's
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: had that throughout this entire season, right except for maybe
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: if he's had a start against the team that's actually
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: seen him before. But other than that, that advantage has
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: been on his side all season. He still hasn't pitched
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: that well at home. So I don't really want to
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: come in and try to back him here, but I
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: probably do lean to the A's here in the first five.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: I just think it could be a dream crusher for Detroit.
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: The money is coming in on Detroit, though seventy one
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash on them.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: They're minus won ten. It's like a pick em price here.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: But doesn't it look way too easy to play Detroit. Oh,
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: the team with the better record and the pitcher with
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: the better era all in the Detroit side. It looks
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: way too easy to me to play Detroit. So I
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: think I would lean A's first five. That's kind of
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: the That's the typical lean for me, an a gauge
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: jump game, right, and we've won doing that multiple times.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: But I think all of those games are on the road, though,
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: so I'm very hesitant to do it in this stadium.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: I don't want to obviously, and the totals high, it's
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: at eleven. The money's coming in on the over here
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: as well. I'm not so sure about the over here,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: but maybe because Montero doesn't have good numbers against the
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: A's although it's a very small sample, Jump does struggle
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: at home. The A's bullpen is not good, so there
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: are probably more indicators starts in over than an under here.
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think the better way to play it,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: in my opinion, I still think is taking the A's
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: in the first five innings, though they might be actually
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: a slight favorite in the first five, But yeah, that's
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: probably what I would do if I was gonna do
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: anything with it. BC. What's up, man, Kpasa? Not too much,
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: man Nada? Which is going going through these games here? Man?
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: I got a bunch of opinions in baseball today. Most
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: of them have to do with unders Minnesota Seattle. I
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: looked at this starting pitching matchup, and I was like,
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: this looks like an under. I was like, how many
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: unders am I gonna put on my card today? This
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: one I was able to scratch off pretty early on. Though.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: There are not enough indicators for me to really play
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: the under here, but the starting pitching matchup looks pretty
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: good to me. In this game. Seattle won the game
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: yesterday after losing the first game, which, like I said,
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: it was a bounce back spot kind of because they
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 2: lost the first game in a return home spot and
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: then they were able to bounce back in the next game.
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: So it's a split series right now. Seattle might have
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: a little bit more motivation, I mean Minnesota. They seem
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: to still be trying to win this year, though, which
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: seems delusional to me, like why would why would Minnesota
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: actually think that they can make the playoffs? This year.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: It's not gonna happen, dude, this is a joke. I mean,
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: I know they're only three games out in their division
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: right now. They're not a good team. Dude. I'm sorry.
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: It's not gonna happen from Minnesota. So I'm it's laughable
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: to me. Minnesota's bullpen is one of their main issues.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: They're terrible. They're like, oh, let's just pick up a
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: reliever or two, like they just picked up Mintor from
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: the Mets. I'm like, oh, yeah, that'll fix their bullpen.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. They used six guys out of
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: the bullpen yesterday, including Mintor, although only through one pitch.
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: They just got they kind of used to it. Man,
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: go up there and throw one pitch. Get get used
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: to being on the twins. Get get used to being
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: in this horrible bullpen. There you go, Oh my god.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: Seattle's bullpen is obviously the better one. They use three
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: guys so they're more rested as well. Seattle is ranked
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: eleventh and bullpen. I think they're like a top several
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: bullpen though, as I keep saying, Minnesota is bad, they're
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: twenty ninth. Oh yeah, I don't think adding a couple
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: of relief pitchers. Is going to fix that bullpen. Minnesota
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 2: is the better offense, though they're ranked eleventh offensively. Like
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: I said, tied with the Giants and the Tigers. Seattle's
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: been bad offensively, man, I don't know of another way
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: to put it. They're twenty seventh. They've been really struggling offensively.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: Tadj Bradley is pitching from Minnesota. He is having a
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: good season. He's been one of their best surprises of
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: the season. Three point six to five y RRA, one
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: point two to one WHIP. He's been a little bit
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: worse on the road though, four point one four road RA.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: But this is a pitcher friendly stadium here, so he
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: still might be able to pitch well here. He's been
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: good recently. He has had a good month. I had
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: a high strikeout rate over the month of July. High
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: walk rate too, though he's walking like three guys every game.
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: That's not gonna cut it. That's not good. Although Minnesota
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: has been winning a ton of games behind him. They've
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: won eight of his last nine starts, and he's given
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: up two or fewer earned runs in all but one
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: of those. In all but two of all these starts,
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: including that one loss, So a lot a lot to
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: like here with Bradley. He's got a low hit race.
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: He's hard to hit. His walk rate is kind of
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: high though, so that's his one issue still is that
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: he's wild. He strikes out a lot of guys and
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: he does tend to give up a lot of fly balls.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: But Seattle should be a better stadium for him to
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: knock some of those fly balls down without having them
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: leave the yard. His numbers against Seattle, he's been good
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: average wise. He's helped him to two seventeen average and
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: forty six at bats, but they have a seven to
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: ninety four OHPS off him because like all their hits
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: have been extra base hits. They have some home runs
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: off him. Raleigh has two of them runs off of
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: Rodriguez has won Julio Rodriguez ten to five strike out
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. So yeah, overall, his numbers aren't good enough
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: for me to really want to come in and play
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: an under hero. Though some of these numbers were accumulated
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: when Bradley was not pitching as well, back when he
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: was on Tampa Bay. He's having his best season now,
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: so he is in his better form now. He's achieved
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: his final form maybe, so I don't know. I still
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: think Bradley might do okay here, but it's not enough
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: for me to really want to come in and actually
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: back him here. George Kirby is pitching for the Mariners.
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's not their best pitcher. He's got a
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: three point nine to eighty RA one point three whip
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: is not really that good. Kirby has been better at
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: home though, three point eight to eight Homie. Of course,
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: you expect most Seattle pitchers to be better at home.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: His opponent batting average is definitely better at home hit
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: or a more pitcher friendly ballpark. Excuse me. Kirby was
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: bad last time out in another pitcher friendly park in Texas.
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: He got lit up. He gave up four home runs
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: in that one. That was not a good start. He
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: was pitching well prior to that. His command numbers has
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: still been good, Like he's not really walking anybody. He's
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: racking up a lot of strikeouts. So that's what we've
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: seen from him for most of the season. But his
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: hit rate is way too high. He's a hit able
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: pitcher man, so that's not good. He kind of allows
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: too many home runs in there. Too. Although he's pitching
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: in a less home run friendly park here, he doesn't
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 2: really walk guys, so his command has been pretty good,
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: although overall his strikeout rate is not really that high either,
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: although it's been higher recently Kirby against Minnesota. His numbers
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: across the board here are pretty bad though. In fifty
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: one at bats three fourteen average, eight forty nine ohps
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: eleven to two strikeout walk ration is good, but the
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: rest of these numbers, yeah, no thanks. So obviously I'm
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: not going to be playing an under in this one,
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: although it seems like the odds makers think that it
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: will be a lower scoring game, which is a lot
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: of times the case. In Seattle. Money is backing the
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: under pretty strongly here. Totals around seven or seven and
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: a half, so it is a low total, which usually
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: indicates you do kind of want to lean towards an under.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: Fifty eight percent of tickets on the over ninety four
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the under. I won't be
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: doing that, yeah, I mean, I just think there's there's
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: too much in the way, like for these two starters,
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: like there's too much bad in the matchup numbers. The
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: money's back in Minnesota here as well, seventy one percent
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: of tickets on Seattle fifty seven percent of the cash Minnesota.
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: And while I said I think Minnesota is delusional in
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: thinking they can actually win, I actually would lean to
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: them in the first five here. I think Bradley has
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: the better match up here. I think he's the better
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: of the two pitchers here, believe it or not. So
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: I like Minnesota in the first five here, So I'll
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: agree with the market read in that case. But yeah,
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: it's not a strong opinion for me. Seattle's around minus
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: one thirty something, so you'll probably still get Minnesota as
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: an underdog in the first five there. But obviously Minnesota's
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 2: bullpen is not something you want to back here. SOB
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: what's up man? You had over in the Mets Marlins game.
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: It was six to two in the sixth and then
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: no more runs were scored. Yeah, that's some bullshit. Although
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: those are those are good bullpens though, so I will
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: say that, but yet to not have any more runs
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: scored that is kind of bullshit there. And I'm not
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: a guy that plays overs in the first five, you know,
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: like I play unders in the first five to avoid
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: bad bullpens. But If I think the pitching is gonna
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: be bad at the start, I think it's gonna kind
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: of continue throughout the game because it usually means worse
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers come into the game. You went with me
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 2: on the under and that one that was good? Uh
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: you won on the Cubs. All right, good for you, dude.
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: I was not gonna back David Peters and I can't,
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: even though he actually has good numbers against the Yankees.
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: I think I could not do that. Yeah, that it
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: looks like you, Yeah, you missed the three O day.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: It should have been a three to zero for you. Yeah,
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: I mean I I also went to and one yesterday,
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: but my loss was more in the bag pretty early
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: with the Mets side not getting there and unfortunately that
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: was a favorite price too. All right, San Francisco, San
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: Diego here, Uh, San Diego, you know, probably has more
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: to play for here because there's still a winning team
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: here and still in the mix for possibly the wild cardial.
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's I don't think it's gonna happen.
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: And people are talking about San Diego selling though they're
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: talking about them trading Mason Miller, So we'll see. But
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: San Diego's won the last two game here. They're two
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: to one in this series. Here, I think both teams
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: will still show up. I mean it's a divisional kind
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: of rivalry series. Here. San Diego used a bunch of
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen, including Millery. Yesterday. They use
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 2: four guys, so their bullpen is the better one, but
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: it's not in the greatest rest shape. Here. San Francisco
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: used three. I still prefer San Diego's bullpen here. They're
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: ranked eighth. I think they're one of the better bullpens.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: San Francisco is twenty third, so not very good. San
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: Francisco has been the better offense. They're eleventh of I
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: still doubt them and don't think they're that good. I
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 2: still think there are just outlier games that are skewing
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: their numbers. They're definitely better than San Diego, though San
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: Diego twenty fifth. They have not been a good offense.
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: Started pitching here kind of looks like maybe a lower
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: scoring set up with these two starters when you start
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 2: digging into it, and I don't know, maybe not landon
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: Route is pitching for the Giants four point one two
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 2: ERA one point two to six Whip He's decent an
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: OK on the road as well, four point two roady are.
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: He's better at home, even though his home ray is higher.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: His batting average is better on the road, but his
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: splits aren't really that significant. He struggled last time out
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: at home against Milwaukee. He's been dealing with some walk
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: issues here, which has been the case for him for
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: a while, though he pitched pretty well throughout them of
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: the July Mostly it's just his strikeout rate was kind
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: of down. His walk rate was a bit too high.
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: Looking at him overall, he has a low hit rate,
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 2: so he's hard to hit. His walk rate is too high.
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: Like I said, he is a little bit wild and
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is pretty good. He fans a lot
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: of guys with these wild breaking pitches that he throws.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: And his ground ball rate is also quite high, so
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: he gets a lot of ground ball outs. Against San Diego,
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: we got a pitcher friendly park going on here. But
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: his numbers aren't really that good against San Diego. In
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: sixty six at bats, two seventy three average is kind
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: of high. Seven thirty oh ps is below that seven
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: to fifty threshold, but it's close, So I think he's
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: just average against San Diego sixteen to eight strike out
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is not very good either, so I don't
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: love route here. Michael King is pitching for San Diego.
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: He's their only like actual solid starter at this point.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: Three point three eighty r one point one to seven whip.
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good at home. He's basically good home
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: and away. His home road splits are very insignificant, but
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: three point three six homey ra. He's been pitching generally
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: pretty well. I wasn't great last time against Colorado, but
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: kind of got unlucky. Most of the guys that reach
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: base wound up scoring. His command numbers are all right there. Overall,
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: he's got a low hit rate. His walk rate is
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: a little bit too high, though, and he's been walking
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: too many guys and he doesn't strike out that many guys,
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 2: so his strike out rates a little bit low. But
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: he's generally a decent pitcher against San Francisco, though that
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: has not been the case in thirty seven at bats.
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: San Francisco has gotten the best of him. Three seventy
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: eight average, eleven eighty six oh ps, seven to ten
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio that is not good. Only six
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: of their hitters have faced him, They've done a lot
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 2: of damage against him, So I don't love King here
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: in this one. I think the over might actually be
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: an approach in this game, even though San Diego usually
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: you look for low scoring games here, but the money
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: is coming in on the over fifty five percent of
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 2: tickets on the under, seventy four percent of the cash
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: on the over totals at eight. I probably agree with
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: the over here, and I would lean San Francisco as well.
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: I think Roup well, at least in the first five.
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: I don't really want to deal with the bullpen scenario. Well,
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: just I don't want to deal with the bullpends, I
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: should say. I still think San Diego's is better, but
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: San Francisco in the first five as an underdog, maybe
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: San Diego is a pretty high price here minus one
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: forty something eighty percent of the tickets seventy seven percent
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them, so the money indicating towards
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: San Francisco. Yeah, I would agree with San Francisco in
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: the first five. I think Roup sets up a little
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: bit better than King there. I think he can at
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: least battle against King, but I still think I prefer
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: the over in that game to anything else. I don't
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: like the WNBA either. Connecticut. I mean, I thought I
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: gave them out in a good spot and they maybe
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: should have covered that one we got if you played
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: them in that game against Washington with me, we got
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: screwed on that one. Man. I thought it was a
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: good spot to do it coming out of the All
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: Star break, and all the Connecticut had way more field
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: goal attempts in the game. The whole thing was free throws.
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: They were on the bad side of a ridiculous free
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: throw disparity and that's why that one and they missed
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: by one and a half points. That was bullshit. But yeah,
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: I'll talk about that game in a minute. We do
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: have to talk about the Sunday Night game, which unfortunately
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: my Boston Red Sox are involved in the Sunday Night game.
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: But at least for them, they don't have to play tomorrow,
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: so I'm happy about that. The Dodgers have to turn
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: around and play tomorrow. They have to go to Chicago
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: and play the Cubs tomorrow, so this is it's gonna
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 2: be a bad spot for the Dodgers tomorrow kind of
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: with the Cubs not traveling. Although the Cubs are gonna
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: be coming off of a big series against the Yankees.
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 2: But yes, this is the NBC Peacock Game. The Red
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: Sox have already won another series. I think they've won
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: nine series in a row, or maybe ten. It's getting ridiculous.
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox are on a twenty two to twenty
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: two and four run. Here. They had one of the
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 2: best monthly records in MLB history with a twenty one
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: and four in July, which is the best in franchise history.
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: They're playing well, like as a team, you know what
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, They're playing well as a units. They're like again,
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: this is why they had to get rid of Alex Cora, Like,
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: they would not be doing this under Cora. I'm sorry,
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: But under Chad Tracy, they're just doing things differently. Man.
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: They're stealing more bases. Their base running has been way better.
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: The fundamentals are just better. The fielding has been better.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: Under Alex Cora, the fielding was just totally lackluster and
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: making tons of mistakes. The base running was totally awful
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: as well. That's not what's happening now. The Red Sox
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: are making good decisions running the base as well. They're
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: fielding pretty well, and they're using a lot of bunts,
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 2: which is another thing. The Red Sox are playing small
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: ball here with their off that's not really that powerful
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 2: of an offense where they're putting up some runs now
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: because they're just utilizing their hitters better as well. Now,
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 2: I will say Wilson Contrera's was the guy that climb
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: Will kleinb hit in the head with a pitch two
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: days ago, which the Red Sox should have They should
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: have stormed the field after that man, or they should
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: have cleared the benches. You can't do that. He was
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: throwing intentionally and Contrera's was in concussion protocol because of that,
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: so he didn't play yesterday. So the Red Sox best
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: hitter was out of the lineup yesterday. So it remains
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: to be seen if he's gonna play today or not,
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: so something to consider that that also, I forgot to
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 2: even mention that yesterday, but that obviously helped our under
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: yesterday with the Contrera's not being in the lineup for
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox in this game here, the Red Sox,
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: they do have a very good bullpen, these three guys. Yesterday,
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 2: they did have to use Chapman yesterday. They're using him
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 2: too much. In my opinion, Chapman is putting guys on
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: base way too often. I don't think he did last night,
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I think they got to give him some
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 2: more arrest. He's good, but he's an old man man.
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 2: So you know, we'll see Dodgers only use one guy
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen. Yes, so they so their bullpen's
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: a little more rested. But the Red Sox are the
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: number one bullpen in both WHIP and the Ray below
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 2: three in the RA right now, though that might not
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: last very long. But they're still a good bullpend. The
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: Dodgers are ninth. They're an okay bullpen, but the lesser
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: of the two. Dodgers are number one in offense. Again,
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: they're obviously the better offense. Red Sox are twentieth tied
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 2: with Arizona. But the Red Sox, you know, again, they've
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 2: been better recently. And the Red Sox probably have the
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: better starting pitcher here and they're a big underdog here. Still,
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: Jake Bennett is getting disrespected in the market. Man Bennett
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: is pretty good. And what's interesting, Bennett and Peyton Totley
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 2: actually I think know each other. They're both big left
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: handers from Oklahoma. But I guess they know each other
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: from pitching in Oklahoma back in the day. Bennett actually
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: went to University of Oklahoma. I don't think that that
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: totally did, but I don't know. They somehow know each other.
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: So I think keeping those two guys together is a
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: good thing. But Bennett has been good. A two point
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: seven to four ERA point nine to seven whip that's good.
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: He's actually been somewhat better on the road, two point
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: five to three roady ra He's pitching well. I mean
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: he's not really striking out a lot of guys, that's
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 2: the one thing about him. But he doesn't put guys
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: on base. He's got a low hit rate. He's got
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 2: a low walk rate, but the strike out rate, Yeah,
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: he doesn't come in and fool a bunch of guys.
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: He gets a lot of ground ball outs and stuff
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 2: like that. Weak contact. So I know that means the
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: advanced analytics guys are gonna come in and say that
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: he's not that good. But I don't know, man, I mean,
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: he's putting very few guys on base. I'd like to
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 2: see him strike more guys out, but he's pitching effectively,
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 2: and the Dodgers have never seen him before, so that
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: should be an extra advantage to him against an offense
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: that hasn't seen him before. Dodgers are going with em
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: Att Shehan, and I think Shean is better than his numbers. Look,
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 2: and he might be extra motivated here because if Schoolball
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 2: is gonna join the rotation, you know, at some point,
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers are getting like Snell back and Glasno back
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: on whatever. So she and might feel like he's auditioning
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 2: for a job because think about the rotation. If those
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: guys come back, it's gonna be Yamamoto, Scooba, Glasno, Snell
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: and then who's the fifth guy? Am I missing somebody?
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 2: Who's the fifth guy gonna be? I know the Dodgers
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: are stacked, but like it might be, you know, like
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: an audition for that fifth role. Like who else do
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: they have? Sasaki is probably gonna wind up being back
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: in the bullpen. She and Lawer is probably not gonna
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: make it. Who else do they have? I forget, I'm
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 2: missing one guy. I don't know, let me look, I forget.
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 2: But what I'm saying is that Shean might come out
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: with extra motivation here because he might feel like he's
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: auditioning for Oh yeah, Otani, I'm an idiot. Of course
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: Otani would be in the rotation. Well maybe not because
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: they use him in weird ways, So I don't know,
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I don't know. Maybe Shean feels like he's
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: auditioning for a job, especially right now with those other
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 2: guys in He's got a four point nine to five
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: RA but I think he's better than that. His one
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: point two to five whip is not that bad. He's
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 2: been better at home four point sixty three home. Era
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 2: had a bounce back start last time after he wasn't
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: good against Philly. He pitched pretty well against the Mets
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: last time out. Although it's the Mets, they're not a
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 2: good offense. The Dodgers have been losing a lot of
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: his games. They've lost eight of his last nine starts,
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 2: so that's not a great sign that the Dodgers continue
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 2: to lose when he pitches. But his hit rate is okay,
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: His walker rate's all right, that's not bad. His strikeout
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 2: rate is well above one per inning, So these numbers
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: across the board really don't look too bad for she
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: In here. It's just he allows a fair amount of
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: home runs, which isn't good, but seems like you're getting
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 2: a little bit unlucky when you're just all the damage
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 2: coming against you as the long ball. You know, he's
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: been pretty good against the Red Sox. They've faced him
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: a little bit. They have thirteen at bats against him,
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: only one extra base hit, which is a double from
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 2: Connor Wong, who is not one of the Red Sox
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: better hitters. Two thirty one batting average, five ninety three ohps,
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 2: four to one strike got walk ratio. So I think
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: she and might pitch well as well here. So I
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: think this is another under. The total is way higher
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: in this one, so I don't know what's going on
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 2: with that total. It's an eight and a half. It
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 2: wasn't nine at one point. I know you're not getting
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: that key number of nine anymore. The total has crashed
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: off of that nine. The money's come in on the under.
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: But this is my other lean that I had sixty
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 2: two percent of tickets eighty percent of the cash on
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 2: the under. I like the under in this one again.
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 2: It would be a full game play for me because
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 2: I think both bullpens are good and both starting pitchers
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: I think could pitch well here. Again, as well, so, yeah,
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: I think the under makes the most sense here. Dodgers
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: are also a huge favorite. They've gone up for minus
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: one fifty seven up to the minus one seventy something range.
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 2: I know they're a home team trying to avoid a sweet,
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: but usually is a motivated spot, so I wouldn't necessarily
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: want to fade the Dodgers here. But that price looks
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 2: kind of ridiculous, like it seems like it's disrespecting a
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 2: very capable pitcher in Bennett here. Sixty six percent of tickets,
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: eighty eight percent of the cash on the Red Sox.
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 2: The money is coming in on the Red Sox, and
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: I agree if you can get the Red Sox at
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: like a plus one and a half on the run
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: line or like a plus one run line, a hot
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: team like that where they might be in a pitching
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 2: duel here, you know, and it might be close. Taking
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox on the run line makes some sense
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 2: to me here. But I think my preferred approach is
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: to go under again in that game. But it's not
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 2: on my card, so they go. You played Connecticut versus Chicago. Yeah,
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: I forget what my opinion was on that one. They're
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 2: winning fourteen in the second quarter and then lost on
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 2: the plus four. Yeah, the WNBA is weird, man, Like
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: the WNBA, you see extreme shifts between the two halves.
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 2: I don't really know why that is. If they are
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 2: extreme adjustments again made, why would that happen in the WNBA.
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: I have no idea, But the WNBA seems to have
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 2: some extreme shifts that go on in like half, in
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: the fourth quarter and stuff. I don't really know why.
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 2: But anyway, Yeah, let's talk about the WNBA and then
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 2: I can get out of here. I don't have any
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 2: plays here. We do have four games. The first one
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 2: is the best game, which is in the afternoon at
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 2: one pm on ABC. It's a big game between Indiana
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 2: and Minnesota. But this Minnesota team, I would be shocked
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 2: if they don't win the championship here, although of course,
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 2: but yeah, there you go there. They're lesbian looking coach
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: here going on women and whatever, is advocating for trans rights.
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 2: That's just great. There's a reason to not like Minnesota.
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 2: But they're a dominant team, dude. They're clearly the best
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 2: team in the league, and I don't even think it's
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: that close, especially because they got Callier back. They were
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 2: dominating even without her. She's one of the best players
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 2: in the league. And now she's back. Yeah, Okay, who's
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: gonna stop this Minnesota team. I don't know. I don't
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 2: see anybody doing it. Minnesota. They've won a bunch of
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 2: games in a row with they're on a roll. They're
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 2: not gonna overlook Indiana here. They're coming home from Toronto.
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 2: But who cares, you know, I mean, it's whatever. It
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: was a single game road trip. They won't overlook a
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 2: home game that's on national TV against Caitlyn Clark. They'll
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: show up. I think they want to come in and
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 2: probably make a statement here and show that they're the
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 2: better team. I don't think they've played at Indiana at
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 2: all yet this year. Now. On the other hand, Indiana's
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 2: gonna show up as well. They're gonna be motivated here.
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: Indiana's coming in on a nice five game win streak
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: as well, But they've played weak teams here in this stretch. Man.
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 2: The only good win they have is that win over
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 2: New York. Other than that, they beat Seattle twice, Connecticut
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 2: and Portland. Okay, they I mean, I don't think Indiana
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 2: is a bad team. They're not, but they're not as
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 2: good as the Western Conference, they're not as good as Minnesota,
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 2: and beating like basically the three worst teams in the
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 2: league pretty much, I'm not impressed by that. So yeah,
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 2: I think they're gonna be up against it coming into
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 2: this one against Minnesota. Minnesota has one more day of rest.
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 2: By the way, if you care about that, Minnesota hasn't
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 2: played since Thursday. Indiana played on Friday. I don't think
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 2: that matters much better. But I think Minnesota is the
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 2: right side here. I think they're the better team. Indiana
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 2: is one of those dreaded public underdogs because people are
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 2: gonna look at this and think, oh, this is a
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: close matchup between a good Minnesota team and Caitlyn Clark's team.
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: And we're getting five and a half six points here
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 2: with Indiana, so the public looks like they want to
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 2: take those points. I would not do it. Eighty four
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 2: percent of take it sixty four percent of the cash
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 2: in Indiana, so the money is indicating against Indiana. Public
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: underdog man. You know, I recommend fading public underdogs because
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 2: you're getting the better team and the public doesn't even
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: want them. So it's one of those types of games
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 2: when it looks like it's like this high profile matchup
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 2: between two good teams. You know, you see this in
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 2: football a lot, right, Like a lot of times the
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: public will grab the points with the underdog, thinking it's
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 2: value and then it'll be a close game between two
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 2: good teams. But it doesn't work out that way as often,
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, More often than not, the
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: better team if the osmakers are telling you that the
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 2: better team in the public doesn't even want them, they
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 2: wind up cashing. So yeah, I would lay the points
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 2: with Minnesota if I was gonna play that one. And
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 2: I think that's my best wa w NBA opinion of
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 2: the day actually, because yeah, it's just one of those
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 2: public underdog setups. You make money if you fade them
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 2: in the long term. So I think that's the best
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 2: lean for me in the WNBA is Minnesota minus the points.
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 2: LA at Portland. LA just traded Kelsey Plumb by the way,
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 2: so she hasn't been playing because she's been hurt, but
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 2: they traded her to Phoenix, I'm pretty sure, which is
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 2: an interesting move because Phoenix is not really in it here,
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 2: Like I don't think Phoenix is making the playoffs, so
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 2: very very strange trade. To me. It's between two teams
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: that aren't going anywhere basically, But that's gonna signal to
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 2: LA that they're giving up on the season, you know
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 2: what I mean. Although she hasn't played for a long time,
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 2: but that to me, I think LA they're gonna be
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 2: in kind of a bad mental state here after that, Like, oh,
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 2: we just traded away our star player, so now we
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: know we're not gonna be going for it here, you
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: know what I mean. So I don't think that's good.
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 2: They're coming off a huge Actually, you know what, this
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 2: might be the best at least this is the best
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 2: situational lean here towards Portland. I like Portland. In this game.
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: LA just played a big game against New York Man.
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: They almost beat New York. They were five and a
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 2: half point dogs there at home, and they came within
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 2: four points and then was a close game towards the
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 2: end there. So now LA just traded away their best
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: player and they're coming off a close loss against a
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 2: good team and now they have to go and play Portland.
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: Doesn't look like a good spot to me. NBC and
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 2: Peacock have this game, by the way, which Portland might
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 2: get fired up. Pun it's end to the Portland fire
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 2: because they get to play a national TV game here
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 2: and they're coming off an embarrassing blowout loss to Indiana.
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 2: You know what, I'm starting to consider putting this. Should
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 2: I put this on my card? I don't know. It's close.
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 2: I liked dude, I don't know. I don't know why
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 2: I didn't think of it. I thought about it, but
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know. It didn't just register in my mind, right.
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: I guess Portland they got blown out in their last
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 2: game against Indiana and they're staying at home, so to me,
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 2: you got to think they're gonna get up for this.
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 2: And they did play at LA earlier this year and
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 2: lost by seventeen, so LA is probably not gonna take
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 2: them very seriously here. Portland's on a five game losing streak.
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 2: They're not playing well, but those were against our four
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 2: game losing streak. Those were against good teams Minnesota, Dallas, Vegas,
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 2: and Indiana. LA is a big step down from all
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 2: those teams. I like Portland man sixty per tickets, ninety
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them. Who does LA play next?
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 2: Let me see? Is this a sandwich spot? I think
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 2: it's not. But let me say they're playing Chicago next. Well,
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 2: they actually did lose to Chicago the last time they
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 2: played them, but they've lost to everybody recently. But I
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 2: don't know. Will they pay more attention to Chicago. I
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: don't know. I mean they beat Chicago not too long
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 2: before that. This is still a bad spot, though. I
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 2: definitely like Portland. Here, sixty tickets, ninety percent of the
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 2: cash on them. Mm yeah, it's pretty tempting, man. Yeah,
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 2: all right, fuck it, let's do it. Let's add a
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 2: play on Portland. Let me see what can we get
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 2: with the number here. A lot of plays today, and
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to do my Instagram videos here. Yeah,
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 2: you know what, I was thinking Minnesota might be the
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 2: best play, but now I think Portland actually is. Ummm yeah,
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 2: let me see Portland. You can get them, Actually, you
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 2: can get them as an underdog, right, is that right? Yeah?
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 2: I see one book has them at plus one and
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 2: a half. Really, mostly you're gonna see minus one and
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 2: a half or a pick them though. Let me see
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 2: what's the money line? Money line? Yeah, one book, the
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 2: Scoreboard book has them as an underdog. Here. I think
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna do it. But yeah, I would still recommend
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 2: them if you want to take them at minus one
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 2: and a half or minus one or whatever, or actually
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 2: you could play the money lined about minus one fifteen,
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 2: any of those I think is a fine option. But
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know how I'm seeing them at plus one
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 2: and a half here at this one book. So I'm
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: gonna do it and put a little bit on that
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 2: money line as an underdog there. But if you if
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 2: you don't have access to that one book, I don't
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 2: know how many states it's available in, you know, you're
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 2: gonna be seen mostly on minus one and a half
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 2: and a pick them here. But I still recommend it.
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 2: But there you go. We're adding a play on Portland here,
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I still recommend it. I think if they
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 2: if they cover a one and a half, they're probably winning.
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 2: So let's take Portland. I would still do it. I
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 2: would still lay the one point or lay the small
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 2: money line price there a minus one fifteen, minus one fourteen,
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 2: whatever the hell it is. All right, let's finish this
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 2: off Connecticut and Dallas. SOB has his eye on this
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 2: one on ESPN. You know, I mean, the thing is
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 2: these ESPN Night games Prime time. The home teams tend
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 2: to be a little bit more motivated in these games.
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if I really want to fade
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 2: Dallas here, But you're right, they might overlook Connecticut, but
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 2: Dallas is coming to have a loss to Washington. Man.
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 2: The only thing is they play Washington again next so
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 2: maybe they're gonna be looking ahead and be looking at
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 2: revenge against Washington. But we're talking about a Dallas team
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 2: that hasn't won since before the break. So I don't know, man,
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I really want to fade Dallas here,
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 2: and they might actually just show up here. And the
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 2: last time they played Connecticut they only beat them by three.
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 2: Even though they went into Connecticut and beat them, that
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 2: was an interesting spot because again Becker's and fodd is
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 2: that her name, Yeah, both played for Yukon, so they
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 2: were going back to kind of their home there to
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 2: play against Connecticut, and Dallas is now playing them at
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 2: home this time. Now. The one thing I will say
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 2: that does favor Connecticut or does support Connecticut here is
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 2: Dallas does not cover spreads well as a favorite. Even
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 2: though they're decent team, they're winning games right now. They
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 2: play up tempo and they play high scoring games, but
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 2: they have not been covering spreads. They've been overvalued in
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 2: the market. So you're right that the yeah, they're not
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 2: good at covering is a big favorite, and they are
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 2: a big favor here at minus ten and a half
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 2: minus eleven, but I don't really want to fade them here.
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 2: Sixty seven percent of tickets, a sixty nine percent of
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. As far as the totals, by
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 2: the way, this is a lower than the other two
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 2: that's older. In the Indiana Minnesota game is unbelievably high
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 2: at one ninety one and a half. That's one of
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: the highest totals you'll ever see. I would not play
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 2: that over. I mean, Minnesota is a good deepfense, so
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 2: I know Indiana is a really good offense and they
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 2: lack on the deepfensive side. But I think Minnesota is
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 2: going to control the pace in that game, so I
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 2: would not. I think Minnesota is correlated to an under
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 2: in that game against Indiana, by the way, So yeah,
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 2: I think Indiana wants to go up tempo and have
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 2: a high scoring game. Minnesota probably wants to slow them
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 2: down a bit, so that total is ridiculously high at
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 2: one ninety one and a half down from one ninety three.
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 2: I think I lean under in that one slightly though
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 2: one it's a high total total that's that high Usually
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 2: the oddsmakers are telling you something that's just kind of crazy.
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 2: But yeah, this Dallas game, the total is a bit
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 2: low money coming into the over in this one. I
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 2: have no idea if Britney Grinder is back for Connecticut.
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 2: Here Connecticut, they haven't won since the All Star Break either,
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 2: since before the All Star Break they had that kind
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 2: of close call against Chicago last time, which I think
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 2: that was a loss for us on the shower was it,
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 2: I don't remember, Maybe it was Britdany Grinder is still
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 2: out for Connecticut. I don't think it matters that much.
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't have a good read on this one. Man,
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 2: I just don't so do what you want with that game.
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 2: But yeah, that I don't have a strong read on it.
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 2: I like Minnesota and Portland both a lot better than
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 2: whatever the hell is going on in this game. I
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 2: don't really have a strong lean on it at all.
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 2: I don't even want to give out a leen there.
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 2: And then we have Toronto and Golden State. Golden State
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 2: They're definitely a good home team, and the West Western
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 2: Conference is better than the East. Golden State looked like
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 2: they were in the running to get plumb and they
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 2: didn't do it. But I think they're gonna show up.
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, they've lost both game, or they've lost one
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 2: game coming out of the All Star break, but you
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 2: can see what happened. They were on a huge hot
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 2: streak and then lost their last game in a kind
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 2: of zigzag spot against Washington going into the All Star break,
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 2: and then they came out with completely disruptive momentum and
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 2: lost to Phoenix coming out of the break. They might
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 2: bounce back here now that they're back at home. They're
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 2: playing a bad Toronto team. They did just beat Toronto
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 2: on the road by eight, though, But I don't know, man,
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, after losing two games in a row to
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 2: mediocre teams, I don't think Golden State's gonna overlook anybody here.
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 2: So I don't hate Golden State here. Toronto is gonna
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 2: show up too. They're not a good team. They've lost
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 2: five games in a row, but most of them were
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 2: against good teams at Landa, Vegas and Minnesota twice in
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 2: here coming off a blowout loss and starting a road trip.
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 2: But it is one of those spots where Toronto is
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 2: starting a road trip having to go to the Pacific Coast.
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 2: So this isn't a late late game. It's at eight
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 2: thirty pm. But you know, I talk about these East
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 2: Coast teams or sorry, East Eastern time zone teams going
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 2: out west, having to travel across three time zones and
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 2: play late on your biological clock. It's not really the
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 2: est thing for them. But I want to lay twelve
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 2: and a half or thirteen thirteen and a half now
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 2: with Golden State, and no, not really eighty percent of
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 2: tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on Toronto, so
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 2: the money seems to be back in Toronto a little
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 2: bit here. Golden State's definitely the better team, but it's
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 2: a low total. It's in the one sixties, so I'm
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 2: not really interested in laying a double digit spread with
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 2: a low total like that. That kind of indicates that
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 2: the points are gonna be at a premium. So usually
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 2: you don't want to lay a huge favorite like that
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 2: with a lower total like that. It's more of the
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 2: case in a lower scoring sport, though, like in basketball.
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 2: Obviously a team could still cover a double digit spread
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 2: like that in a somewhat low scoring game, but it's
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 2: still less likely though, So I'm not gonna do anything
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 2: with this game. I might slightly lean to Toronto, but
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 2: I don't have a good read on that one either,
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 2: and that's gonna do it. Man. My plays today we
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 2: have I had a lot of leans, but we have
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 2: three first five unders, which are in Philadelphia, Baltimore in
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 2: baseball here under the four, Arizona, Cleveland under the four,
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee and Anaheim under the three and a half. But
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 2: hopefully Miz just shuts them out, man, and then we
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 2: don't really have to worry about it that much. And
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 2: then WNBA, last minute, we're jumping on Portland, which you
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 2: probably have to lay about one point with them, but
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 2: I'm also fine with that. But I found them at
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 2: plus one and a half just now, so I'm doing
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 2: it that way. That's gonna do it. And then my
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 2: my extra leans. By the way, my two strongest baseball
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 2: leans not on the card were first five under in
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 2: uh Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. I liked that one. And then
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 2: what was the other one full game under in Red
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 2: Sox Dodgers. I think was probably next yeah. I think
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 2: those are the next two that I liked the most.
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 2: So do with that all what you want. That's gonna
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 2: do it. Learn it a tone on Twitter, Learn a
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 2: tone on Instagram, like subscribe out to the channel here,
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 2: boost these numbers, man, let's go, you know, give me comments,
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 2: hype on mobile whatever, whatever the hell that even means.
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Hype me up. We're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 2: Listen over there. That helps me out as well. Covered
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 2: in yuke on YouTube for my yuke covers. You can
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 2: check that out as well. Patreon, dot com, slash and
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 2: learn to total if you want to support me that way.
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 2: I know I have to get back in the swing
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 2: of things and keep these things up to date. Man,
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 2: I'm bad at it. I apologize. Yeah, I don't know
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 2: what else to say. Loser cast every Tuesday night. I
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 2: need to find a loser for this week. I'll probably
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 2: have some ideas though, I need a loser, so we'll
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 2: see what happens with that. My camera just unfocused, probably
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 2: because of my TV over here talking about football. Football
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 2: has been the talk man, so I'm probably gonna maybe
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 2: I'll see if Clint wants to come on for another
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 2: episode of Bald at some point before the football season starts.
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 2: I know I gave you my I did that show
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 2: mostly to give out the wind Totals when I kind
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 2: of talked about how I see the divisions playing out.
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 2: I might have some differing opinions on the divisions, but
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 2: I like my wind totals. You can go back and
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 2: watch that show that I did from a couple of
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 2: months ago. But I'll probably do some more football preview
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 2: stuff in the near future, and I have to do
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 2: I'll do a college football one, even though I don't
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 2: know much about it. And with the ANIL and transfer stuff,
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 2: you get completely different teams every year pretty much, so
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 2: it's it's hard to even do it. But we'll talk
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 2: about what the odds are saying and whatever, schedule strength
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 2: stuff like that, so I'll I did it last year
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 2: or whatever. You know, it's just fun to talk about it.
• 1:58:25
  Speaker 2: So if you if you subscribe, you get the notifications
• 1:58:28
  Speaker 2: for all that. That's gonna do it and New York
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 2: Giants Chief Spot podcast. Maybe we'll be back at some point.
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. I appreciate it, everybody. Let's have
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 2: a winning day today. Peace.
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 1: If the Doc starts talking, hand me the phone. That's somebody,
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 1: and so that somebody know.
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 3: You do not have to lose this round. Hold On,
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 3: hold on, nothing nice, not now hold on, hold on,
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 3: let me pull. You are that bad.
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 1: Luck by time, but it don't get the crown. Hold On,
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 1: hold on, stay with me, now, hold on, hold on,
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 1: You're still here.
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 3: You I love