Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 538 - 6/29/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
- 0:13Hello and welcome to Episode. 538 of the all.
- 0:18Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:23I am your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
- 0:32Happy Monday, a new day. In the arena, guys, another.
- 0:35Day here to hopefully. Cash, some tickets.
- 0:37It's also the second to last day in the month of June.
- 0:40We got today, we got tomorrow. Wednesday is July 1st, and that
- 0:44means we are now just five days away from the 4th of July.
- 0:49So big Saturday coming up. Of course, America 250.
- 0:52Now you're getting ready for your backyard barbecues, whether
- 0:54you're hosting or going somewhere or doing whatever,
- 0:58should be a great holiday weekend here upcoming.
- 1:01I do have a three pack of MLB sweats for you today guys.
- 1:04All three relatively modest short money line favorites.
- 1:07All three have really good sharp mush edges from our friends at
- 1:10Juice Reel. But I do want to mention that
- 1:12because we are five days away now from the 4th of July, it's
- 1:15officially. 4th of July week. I have a Nathan's hot dog eating
- 1:20contest. Not only an update on the hot
- 1:22dog eating contest. And yes, we can bet on it.
- 1:25Yes, we've been betting on it for years and yes, we are
- 1:27betting on it. Again this year.
- 1:29I not only have an update, but I have an official best bet pick
- 1:33on the hot dog eating contest and I'll tell you why I'm
- 1:35jumping on it today and I'm not waiting till tomorrow or get
- 1:39getting closer, of course, to to to Saturday.
- 1:42I think right now is the time to pounce because there was one
- 1:45book that moved quite a bit and there's another book.
- 1:47That is still hanging a good. Number that hasn't adjusted yet.
- 1:50So it's not just a bet on a market wide move, it's a bet on
- 1:54the ability to shop for the best number.
- 1:55And play books off of each other.
- 1:57And hopefully cash the ticket because one book is offering
- 2:00maybe a mispriced number, hopefully that we can take
- 2:03advantage of. So I have, believe it or not, on
- 2:05a Monday, getting back into the swing of things.
- 2:07The official best bet pick if you want to ride with me.
- 2:10Hopefully you have access to the sports Book a bet on the hot dog
- 2:13eating contest. And it is the Joey Chestnut.
- 2:16Over under amount of hot dogs and it's it's I'll just say it's
- 2:20in the low 70s, but it's been moving.
- 2:22It's a little bit on that here in a second.
- 2:24And of course, as I mentioned. A three pack of MLB.
- 2:26Sweats here for today. Hope everyone had a great
- 2:29weekend. By the way, I went back to visit
- 2:33the fam. And we went to the.
- 2:35Solid sound festival in Western Mass where I'm from.
- 2:38Any, any Wilco fans out there? Well, went there with the fam
- 2:42and it was different because we brought our three month old and
- 2:44I must say, guys, it was a bit of a rude awakening.
- 2:47You know when you go to a festival, when you're single or
- 2:49you're younger or you're with your girlfriend, wife, whoever
- 2:53you know, you get some mixed drinks, you get hot dogs.
- 2:56You listen to good music, Maybe you.
- 2:58You know, leave the the lawn chairs and get closer into the
- 3:01mosh pit. It's different.
- 3:02When you got a three month old, let's just say it was not the
- 3:05the most enjoyable experience and it was a wake up call to me
- 3:08that you know what, it's different.
- 3:10Life is different. I can't be, I can't be partying
- 3:13like I was in the old days. It's all different different.
- 3:17When you got to change diapers in public, when you gotta, you
- 3:20know, be on be on alert and be responsible adult, responsible
- 3:23parent. So it was great to see the fam.
- 3:26But yeah, I don't know, maybe bringing a three month?
- 3:28Old to a music. Festival, outdoor festival,
- 3:31probably not the best idea. The other thing we were worried
- 3:33about is like, is it too loud? You know, Wilco was rocking out
- 3:37and, you know, the guitars were loud, the drums are loud, the
- 3:40speakers. We got baby Margo, a headset,
- 3:43some earmuffs. And my wife even thought she
- 3:45was, you know, too worried the whole time that she was going to
- 3:48damage your ears or get sunburned or any of that.
- 3:51So yeah, I could go on all day, but it wasn't the greatest time
- 3:54this weekend. So let's see if we can start the
- 3:57week off on hopefully a better note as we as we kick off the
- 4:01weekend. So.
- 4:03That being said, I do want to wait.
- 4:04And hold on. To the Joey Chestnut over.
- 4:07Under hot dog, official best bet.
- 4:09And again, when I say that out loud, I think people out there
- 4:11like they're just glossing over. Like, are you serious?
- 4:13You're. Breaking down a hot dog eating
- 4:14contest. Yes I am and I've been doing it
- 4:16for years, so hopefully we can cash again.
- 4:18But anyway, save the hot dog eating contest.
- 4:20Best bet for the end of the pod. Let's start off with some.
- 4:23Major League Baseball. Because I didn't have the
- 4:26greatest weekend overall with MLB.
- 4:28These were bets that I would write about, put in the app and
- 4:31then, you know, wouldn't have any knowledge of the games.
- 4:33I was out at the festival, you know, both days, Saturday and
- 4:36Sunday and came home and didn't see many winners so I'll see if
- 4:39we can hope we get back on track.
- 4:40And that's baseball sometimes it goes your way, sometimes it
- 4:43doesn't. But with that being said, guys
- 4:45kicking off a new week, trying to finish up the month of June
- 4:48strong. Let's get 3 plays in, try to go
- 4:512 and one and eek out a winning night.
- 4:53So first one on the board, let's talk about a relatively early
- 4:56game, 6:35 PM Eastern Time. Let's.
- 4:58Go down to Camden Yards. Where the Baltimore Orioles are
- 5:01hosting the Chicago White Sox. Let's talk bet splits, line move
- 5:05system matches. I'll give you my play for this
- 5:07one. So the White Sox come in 43 and
- 5:1039 of the on the. Year just took 2.
- 5:13Or three against the Royals. But couldn't get the sweep.
- 5:15They lost yesterday's series finale 5 to 4 as a -135 home
- 5:19favorite on the other. Hand the O's. 39 and 46 just
- 5:23dropped two or three against the nationals.
- 5:25Lost yesterday's series finale 6 to 4 as a -2 O 5 home favorite
- 5:29big favorite. They lost out right, So shout
- 5:32out to anyone who had the Nats plus money yesterday.
- 5:35That was a big one if he cashed. Anyway, pitching match up here
- 5:38for tonight. The White Sox are going with the
- 5:40ready Sean Burke. He is five and.
- 5:42Four with a three-point. 71 ERA OS meanwhile.
- 5:46Going with the ready. Shane Baz.
- 5:48He's 4:00 and 8:00. With a 4.31 ERA.
- 5:49So what are we seeing across the market this game?
- 5:52Open with the Orioles. Listed around a minus. 130 home
- 5:55favorite. Chicago A + 110 row dog.
- 5:58Right off the bat, you're thinking, you know, should
- 6:01Baltimore really be favored? They're what, seven games below
- 6:03500 White Sox? Four games above 500 White Sox?
- 6:07The better team, Sean Burke, the better ERA.
- 6:10You know, you would think, hey, sharps hammer, Chicago White Sox
- 6:12plus money, right? Not so fast.
- 6:14This is why you always want to verify with line movement and
- 6:16bet splits. Don't just assume sharps and the
- 6:19public are going to bet this way or that.
- 6:20Way you can usually. Kind of figure out where the
- 6:23public's going to go. They're usually going to go with
- 6:24the favorite, the over. The home team, The team of the.
- 6:26Better record, all that kind of stuff.
- 6:28But this was interesting to me because.
- 6:30The White Sox are the better team.
- 6:32And the White Sox are getting plus money.
- 6:34But the line is moving toward Baltimore because Baltimore has
- 6:37gone from around -130 at home to now -135 and some shops.
- 6:42Now even up to. -140 So the line is.
- 6:45Clearly moving toward the Orioles, even though.
- 6:48The Orioles are the worst team, so I like the Orioles in the
- 6:51spot It's. Kind of a sneaky.
- 6:52Sharp play. I look at the bet splits. 55% of
- 6:56money line bets are on the O's but.
- 6:57It accounts for 64. Percent of money line dollars,
- 7:00so that 55% that's you know. Relatively even 5050 almost
- 7:06maybe slight slight. Slight ever so slight public
- 7:08support, but 55% of tickets shouldn't move a line 5-10
- 7:13cents, you know? Blinds should pretty much stay
- 7:14where it's at. That's a relatively down the
- 7:16middle number. So that tells me that we got.
- 7:18The lower bets, higher dollars. Public relatively undecided,
- 7:21yes. Slightly in Baltimore, but
- 7:23bigger. Money in line move.
- 7:24Toward the O. 'S look at the system matches
- 7:27for Baltimore. First one that jumped out to me.
- 7:30Home favorites -140 or less very simple system, but laying those
- 7:34short favorites at home has been pretty good.
- 7:37It's. 232 and 176 this year 50. 7% win rate, 3% ROI.
- 7:43Then we kind of add in a couple layers to the system.
- 7:47Start with your home favorites -140 or less.
- 7:49But then you add in if they missed the postseason the
- 7:51previous year and they're facing an opponent who also missed the
- 7:55playoffs the previous year, that system is 100 and. 6262%.
- 8:01With a 12% ROI. This year.
- 8:04Then we get to our favorite system.
- 8:05Here if you're a fishy. Buy low below 500 home favorite
- 8:10and you're getting line move in your favor.
- 8:12And you're facing a. Sell high above 500 team.
- 8:15Just think of this almost as your unranked versus ranked what
- 8:18we always call it unranked home favorite unranked home dog or
- 8:22sorry unranked home favorite versus ranked opponent.
- 8:25For those of you who have done some college hoops and college
- 8:28hoop all years have been but kind of the fishy like why is
- 8:30this? Team favored if the other teams.
- 8:32Quote UN quote the better team that system on the year is. 50
- 8:37and 2666%. With a 12% ROI, Orioles decent
- 8:43at Camden Yards. 23 and 21. Couple games above 500, but
- 8:47Chicago, you know, Chicago is great at home.
- 8:50I think they have the second best home record in baseball.
- 8:52On the road, not so much they're. 15 and. 25 on the road.
- 8:56That is the fifth worst. Road record in baseball, so it
- 9:00seems obvious take the White Sox better team, better record plus
- 9:03money, but I'm going to trust the market here guys lines going
- 9:05to Baltimore even though we see the White Sox is probably the
- 9:09more obvious play. I'm going to go with the line,
- 9:11move the sharp splits, the system matches, and oh by the
- 9:14way, big. Sharp mush.
- 9:15Edge from our friends at Juice Reel at Juice Reel.
- 9:17There is a 40%, four, zero, 40%. Sharp mush edge.
- 9:22In favor of the Orioles. Telling me that the prominence
- 9:25of or the most I should I should say.
- 9:28Smart money is leaning toward. Baltimore.
- 9:31So first one on the board for me, guys going the.
- 9:33O's. -135 at home got that number from the score.
- 9:38But again, shop around. A lot of books hovering more.
- 9:41Closely to -140. Next step for you, 7:10 PM
- 9:46Eastern Time. First pitch, Let's go to
- 9:48Cleveland, where the Guardians are hosting the Texas Rangers.
- 9:52Now the Rangers come in. 42 and 42.
- 9:55Dead 500 record. Just swept the Blue Jays.
- 9:57On the road in a four-game set. Kind of impressive. 1
- 10:01Yesterday's series finale. 3:00 to 2:00.
- 10:03As a + 110 row dog. Meanwhile, the Guardians. 44 and
- 10:0640. So four games, about 500.
- 10:09They just took two or three against the Mariners.
- 10:11They won yesterday's series finale 6 to 5 as a -125 home
- 10:15favorite. So.
- 10:17Tonight series opener. The Rangers are going with the
- 10:19lefty Tyler Alexander. He's one and one with a 2.62
- 10:24ERAI think he's an opener reliever.
- 10:26Might. Go an inning or two, then we
- 10:28look. On the flip.
- 10:29Side with the Guardians, they're going with the lefty as well.
- 10:31Parker Messick. He is 7 and.
- 10:33Four with a 2 point. 6-7 ERA So what we've seen across the
- 10:37market this game opened. With Cleveland listed as a.
- 10:40Short -135 home. Favorite Texas around a + 115
- 10:44row dog. And if you like the Orioles
- 10:47here, you're probably like Cleveland.
- 10:49Very similar situation. Short home.
- 10:51Favorite. That's become more of a
- 10:53favorite, so Cleveland's gotten. Steamed up -135 up to -145.
- 10:58I'm just even. Seeing a couple shops creep
- 11:00toward -150 I look at the splits.
- 11:04At DK, 63% money line bets nearly 70% money line.
- 11:09Dollars are on the guardians. So it tells us kind of
- 11:12relatively again, slight public support, but also.
- 11:14Big money going with the. Guardians along with that line
- 11:17move. Then we get to our system
- 11:19matches above 500 home favorites off a win -155 or less.
- 11:25Guardians of match that system those teams are. 83 and 5660.
- 11:29Percent with a 5%. ROI this year Monday favorites
- 11:33in the opening game of a new series, Taking Line.
- 11:35Movement in their favor. So new week, you're at home.
- 11:39I'm sorry, you're just the favorite in general and the
- 11:41markets moving in your direction. 54 and 3461.
- 11:45Percent, 4% ROI. This year, Cleveland.
- 11:48Also have that correlative betting favorite low total
- 11:51value, so a low total of 7 1/2 in this one for the amount of
- 11:54expected run scored. More likely to come from.
- 11:56Quote UN quote that better. Team which would be.
- 11:58Based on the favorite number, the chalk, the minus sign in
- 12:01front of Cleveland, now the Guardians, they are 10 and six.
- 12:05And Messick. 'S 16 starts this year.
- 12:08So they pitched well and the games that he's played, he also.
- 12:11Has posted a 2.24. ERA at night.
- 12:14Versus 3.4. Four in the day.
- 12:16Luckily for us, it's a night game.
- 12:18Cleveland. Nothing crazy, but. 21 and 18
- 12:20at. Home winning record, Texas.
- 12:23Slightly losing Rd. record 23 and 20. 4 So we have again short
- 12:28home favorite line moving further in their direction.
- 12:31Good split. System matches, hopefully the
- 12:34better pitcher on the bump, a better home Rd. record, and oh
- 12:37by the way, popped open Juice Reel noticed a 10% sharp mush
- 12:42edge in favor of. Cleveland.
- 12:43So 10% more. Of the winning betters out there
- 12:46like you are also. Leaning Cleveland here in this.
- 12:48Game so that gives me a little more confidence that we are on
- 12:51the sharp side. So second, better the night
- 12:53guys. Going with the.
- 12:54Guards, I got a -, 145 at Caesar's.
- 12:57We can shop around. A lot of books here.
- 12:59Closer to -150 last bit of the night.
- 13:02Let's go out to Texas. Where the Houston Astros are
- 13:05hosting the Minnesota Twins. 8:10 PM Eastern Time, first
- 13:09pitch, so setting the stage for this one, the Twins. 40 and. 45
- 13:14on the year just took two or three against the.
- 13:16Rockies. They won yesterday's.
- 13:17Series finale 3 to 2 as a -170 home favorite Similarly, the
- 13:22Astros. 42 and 44. Just one, two or three against
- 13:26the Tigers. They won yesterday's series
- 13:28finale 7 to 5 and extras as a -1. 15 road favorite.
- 13:33So pitching match up here for tonight.
- 13:35We got the Twinkies going with the righty.
- 13:37Zebby Matthews, He's three and five with a 4.56 ERA.
- 13:41Astros, meanwhile, going with the.
- 13:42Righty Peter Lambert. He is 6 and four with a
- 13:45three-point. 28 ERA So what are you?
- 13:48Sitting across the market. Well.
- 13:50This game open Houston very short -125 home favorite
- 13:53Minnesota A plus one O 5 row dog.
- 13:56And as I joked earlier, if you like the Orioles, you're
- 13:59probably like Cleveland. If you like the Orioles in.
- 14:01Cleveland, you're probably like Houston.
- 14:02Because same sort of thing. Short home favorite with a line
- 14:06move in their favorite. We've seen the Minnesota.
- 14:08Or, sorry, the Houston Astros gets teamed up -125 up to -135
- 14:14I'm seeing some shops even closer to -140 it's about a 10
- 14:17or. 15 cents Team move in favor of Houston, Houston.
- 14:20'S got a good. Split at DK. 75% of money line
- 14:24bets. 82. Percent of money line dollars so
- 14:27good one way. Pro and Joe split in their
- 14:29favor. System matches, a couple of
- 14:31these we talked about earlier, also matching with the Astros.
- 14:35If you're a home favorite -140 or less you missed the playoffs
- 14:38the previous year, you're facing an opponent who also missed the
- 14:41playoffs the previous year. Astros match there.
- 14:44That system is 100 and. 6262. Percent with a 12%.
- 14:48ROI this year when both. Teams are below 500.
- 14:52Home favorite if they are -140 or less. 66 and 4460.
- 14:58Percent win rate 9%. ROI this year?
- 15:01Lambert, hopefully greater than Matthews.
- 15:04Lambert has posted a 2.31. ERA and four June starts, three
- 15:08of them wins for Houston. He's only giving up six earned
- 15:11runs in. 23.1 innings. Pitched Meanwhile, Zebi Matthews
- 15:15at home. He's pretty good.
- 15:17Two point O 8. ERA on the road 7.33 ERA He's on
- 15:21the road tonight. He's also posted A4. .5 O ERA
- 15:25and four June starts giving up. 13 earned runs in 26 innings
- 15:29pitched. So home favorite line move in
- 15:31their direction, good split system matches, hopefully the
- 15:34better pitcher. Oh, by the way, popped open
- 15:37Juice Reel, noticed a 20% sharp mush edge on Houston, so
- 15:41hopefully we're also on the sharp side with this one.
- 15:43And then I also opened not just Juice Reel, but Rhythm and found
- 15:47two Rhythm recommendations lighting up in favor of Astros
- 15:52as well. So it tells me the AI model at
- 15:54Rhythm also likes Houston. So last bite of the night, guys,
- 15:57I got the stroh's -134 at FanDuel again, shop around.
- 16:01Most books -135 now up to -140 so Orioles, Guardians, Astros,
- 16:08all three short home favorites with line moves and sharp mush
- 16:11edges. So you've been scratching claw
- 16:13and try to get 2 out of those three to start the week off
- 16:16hopefully on a winning note. Now to what you've all been
- 16:19waiting for. Drum roll please.
- 16:22The Nathan's Hot dog eating contest.
- 16:24Now I don't. Know if you maybe expected?
- 16:26An update today if you're one of the crazy psychos out there that
- 16:29likes to bet on this event. I don't know what it is, it's
- 16:31just it's something about 4th of July and something about.
- 16:34Just the absurdity of it. That you can bet on a hot dog
- 16:37eating contest. It just, it gets me going.
- 16:40I must admit, I, you know, I don't think I'll ever
- 16:42participate in hot dog eating contest, but I love betting on
- 16:45it because there's something about that 10 minute adrenaline
- 16:48rush where you're, you're counting, you're rooting for
- 16:51fewer dogs or or more dogs eating, depending on, you know,
- 16:55which side of the Ledger you're on.
- 16:56But anyway, I have a big update on the hot dog eating contest
- 17:00because we've seen a lot of line movement from Friday when we
- 17:04last had a pod. To today, so over.
- 17:06The weekend, there's been a big adjustment in the market.
- 17:09Now, I mentioned this on Friday or maybe whenever we first
- 17:12started talking about the hot dog eating contest.
- 17:14The first thing is, don't bet on Joey Chestnut to win.
- 17:17Will he win? Yeah, most likely.
- 17:19I mean, Fernando Mendoza go first overall.
- 17:22Yeah, he did. But Mendoza was like -20,000
- 17:25Joey Chestnut is -2000 to win it.
- 17:28It's most likely going to happen, it's just the number so
- 17:31big there's really no value to bet it.
- 17:32So what I like to bet on is the over under number of dogs.
- 17:37Eaten. Now, if we go back to Friday, I
- 17:41mentioned this and I'm, I'm actually kicking myself a little
- 17:43bit because. When we.
- 17:45First started talking about the hot dog eating contest for the
- 17:48first time, which I think was on.
- 17:50Maybe. Exactly a week ago, the over
- 17:52under dogs it was. 72 1/2. So just let's put to the side of
- 17:56the fact that what an absurd number to eat in a 10 minute
- 17:59time frame. But it was 72 1/2 / -, 155 under
- 18:05-140. So the juice was for him to go
- 18:0773 or more than when we updated and did a pod on Friday.
- 18:12I was kind of leaning under because the juice was leaning
- 18:15under. It was 72 1/2 under.
- 18:18Went from -1 What was it? Let's see the under.
- 18:23Went from plus 1/20 to plus 1/10.
- 18:26So the over went from -155 to -140 So basically became it was
- 18:30starting to become more expensive or a less, I guess you
- 18:34could say a cheaper payout to go under, less expensive to go
- 18:39over, more expensive to go under.
- 18:40Basically the juice was leaning toward under 72 1/2.
- 18:44Now the big update today when I logged in to DraftKings is that
- 18:49that 70. 2 1/2 is. Gone if you.
- 18:52Look today at the over. Underdogs, they say it.
- 18:56Total hot dogs eaten by Joey Chestnut.
- 18:57It ain't 70. 2 1/2. It ain't 70. 1 1/2.
- 19:02It's down to 70 1/2. Over the weekend, it fell. 8
- 19:06full. Two dogs, 72 1/2 down to 70 1/2.
- 19:10Here's the thing though, because it's fallen so much.
- 19:13They're now juicing up the. Over so over 70 1/2 is now -175
- 19:20S it fell from 72 1/2 down to 70 half.
- 19:22My first thing is I should have jumped on that under.
- 19:25I should have jumped on 72 1/2 under that plus 120 or plus 110.
- 19:30That's now gone. Don't cry over spilt milk.
- 19:33There's nothing you can do that's gone.
- 19:36So I said to myself, OK, the fact that it fell 72 1/2 down to
- 19:4170 1/2 tells me that there was a lot of money that came in on the
- 19:44under. So therefore I want to be on the
- 19:45under if I can not. Chase the steam but get.
- 19:48Close to that triggering number. So I'm looking at all my sports
- 19:52books. And I am based in Massachusetts,
- 19:55the outskirts of Boston. So I have Caesars, I have
- 19:59FanDuel, I have Bet MGM, I have The Score, formerly ESPN, Bet.
- 20:03I have Valley Bet, I have Fanatics, and I have DraftKings.
- 20:07So I'm looking at every book. And I'm saying myself, OK, if
- 20:11DraftKings fell 72 1/2 to 70 1/2, where is everyone else
- 20:15sitting? And to my surprise, I found a
- 20:19book that I think is mispriced. And maybe, you know, they're
- 20:25just, you know, focusing on baseball in the World Cup and
- 20:28they didn't didn't have find find time to quickly adjust
- 20:31their number for hot dogs eaten. But I found a book where the
- 20:36number of hot dogs is 70. 3 1/2. And the 73 1/2 hot dogs is
- 20:43Caesar's, so Caesar's was offering. 73 1/2.
- 20:49Under at -130 the 73 1/2. Toward the over.
- 20:57And I'm actually looking at it now and it looks like it's
- 20:58falling to 72 1/2. So I don't know if anyone you
- 21:02know gets the best bets from the Juice Reel app, but that's 73
- 21:051/2 looks like it's getting to 72 1/2.
- 21:07So that tells me that maybe I did pick it off perfectly at the
- 21:10perfect time. But anyway, you can now still
- 21:13get under. 72 1/2. At -115 which again, I'm holding
- 21:18under 73 1/2 at -130 but remember this was 72 1/2 at at
- 21:27at DraftKings on Friday. So I guess what I'm saying is I
- 21:31wish it was still 73 1/2. So you guys, if you haven't, bet
- 21:34it. Yet can get the 70. 3 1/2 under
- 21:36-130 But do you still want to go under?
- 21:4072 1/2. At -115 that's really not a bad
- 21:43juice price. And again if he lands on 70.
- 21:46Two or less you still. Cash.
- 21:47Now here's what I'm looking at in terms of some some background
- 21:51information. Last year, if you look at Joey
- 21:57Chestnut, he had 70. .5 year before he didn't compete he.
- 22:02Committed the cardinal sin of I think he.
- 22:04Did an endorsement deal with Beyond Me?
- 22:05And Nathan's, They don't like that.
- 22:07Year before 63. Year before 62.
- 22:11Now he set the world. Record in 2021 which?
- 22:13Is now five years ago with 76. Dogs, 2020.
- 22:18I think it was the COVID year 75 dogs.
- 22:20I think that was AC indoors before that 7270 and then.
- 22:2560616968625460. 85966. 52 and 32.
- 22:33It's almost like reading Mark McGwire Sammy social homers each
- 22:36year. But anyway, if you look at it
- 22:38overall, he has only gone over 72 1/2.
- 22:46What is it 1-2 three times? So you had 767574.
- 22:51That was all five years ago or more.
- 22:54The angle to me here is playing one book off the off another.
- 22:57So again, if you got under 73 1/2 -, 130 at Caesars, I put
- 23:01that in today. Again, I'm kind of shocked that
- 23:05it went down to 72 1/2 right after.
- 23:07Maybe I don't, I'm not, I'm not claiming I caused the steam.
- 23:10Maybe maybe I did, maybe I didn't.
- 23:11Maybe I'm the only one who bet it, maybe meet by me betting it.
- 23:14They realized though, we're, you know, three dogs off the other
- 23:17#70 1/2, but you can still get down 70. 2 1/2.
- 23:21So again, I'm sweating under 73 1/2.
- 23:25This is another example of, you know, specific niche markets or
- 23:28shopping for the best line. Play one book off another
- 23:31because not every book is going to have the same price.
- 23:33They're competing for your action, not just shopping for
- 23:35the best line or trying to find the best odds boost.
- 23:38You're trying to catch one book sleeping, basically.
- 23:41So again, Caesar's 73 1/2 looks like it's gone, but you can
- 23:46still get. 72 and a. Half under -1. 15 and that looks
- 23:49like. It's still your best number
- 23:50because again, you're looking at DraftKings, they're down to 70
- 23:541/2. So DraftKings is juicing over 70
- 23:571/2 -, 1 What did I say? It was over 70 1/2 at -175
- 24:03That's a little. Juicy under 72 1/2. -115
- 24:06Caesar's looks like your best number, so either way.
- 24:11Let's get 72 or. Less.
- 24:13How about that? And again, he's only gone.
- 24:15Over 72123 times. In his in his storied career.
- 24:21So that's my bet. Caesar's under. 73 1/2 -, 130
- 24:24again looks like your best price is under 72 1/2 - 115 right now,
- 24:30so that about does it for episode 530.
- 24:32Eight of the all. Systems Go Sports betting
- 24:34podcast powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
- 24:37where we wrap things up, and I always start first by saying
- 24:40thank you. Thank you for listening.
- 24:41Thank you for tuning. In thank you for grinding.
- 24:43In the arena with me. Every single day, through the
- 24:46UPS and the downs, the good and the bad.
- 24:48The Great. Weekends, the terrible weekends,
- 24:49the hot streaks, the cold streaks, all that kind of stuff.
- 24:52Because we know. Betting it ain't easy.
- 24:54We we wish it. Was.
- 24:55But then where would be the challenge?
- 24:56Will be the reward. Of an easy market.
- 24:59Either way guys, if you enjoy this pod, you value the
- 25:01insights, hopefully find them meaningful and helpful.
- 25:04Please help me grow this. Pod Just give it a five star
- 25:07review on Spotify or iTunes. Recommend the pod to a friend
- 25:10retweet the pod when I put out on Twitter.
- 25:13Any or all those things would be very much appreciated.
- 25:16Next, if you enjoy this style of sports betting breakdown
- 25:19data-driven, sharp contrarian betting focusing on what the
- 25:22numbers the line movement, the bet splits the market is telling
- 25:25us, not what our gut, our bias, our instinct is telling us.
- 25:28If the style of betting has appealed to you, you want to
- 25:31learn more about data-driven betting, or you have someone in
- 25:33your life who could use some data-driven tips, then I would
- 25:36love for you to go to Amazon.com and type in the Everything guide
- 25:40to sports. Betting.
- 25:41Or the NFL sharp betting playbook.
- 25:44Grab one of my books and bring them to the sports book.
- 25:46I'll sign up for you. I'll buy you a beer that would
- 25:48make my day. And hopefully you you get some
- 25:50good insights as well and you're supporting the team.
- 25:52Who wouldn't want? Who would not want to?
- 25:55Support the team. I mean, come on.
- 25:57Either way guys, if you've already bought a copy or plan on
- 25:59doing it, thank you. It really means a lot to me.
- 26:02Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
- 26:04My two favorite sports betting apps.
- 26:05Rhythm got to download Rhythm for their AI backed models and
- 26:08predictions for game bets and player props.
- 26:10They got baseball, they got World Cup, they got WNBA right
- 26:12now. Then, of course, Juice Reel.
- 26:15So many great features you can get the.
- 26:16Robo Jackson best bet picks, sharp mush indicators, arbitrage
- 26:19plays, shop for the best sign features, you can sync up your
- 26:22sports books, get a running report card of your action, and
- 26:25you can also support the ASG pod.
- 26:28Because this pod is free, it cost you nothing to listen.
- 26:30If you want to toss in some money to the tip jar and again
- 26:34you go out to dinner. Good server, give him a good
- 26:36tip. Good bartender, you know tip
- 26:38your bartender well. If you want to support the pod
- 26:41and hopefully value the insights, please please consider
- 26:45signing up to. Get the all.
- 26:47Systems go best bet picks directly on the juice reel app.
- 26:50I got juice reel linked up. If you go to Juice Reel,
- 26:53download the app, you click buy, sell bottom right corner, you
- 26:55click search button, little little box, you type in ASG,
- 26:59you'll find me and you can get the best bet picks as soon as I
- 27:02make them every single day for $9.99 a week, $24.99 for a full
- 27:09month. So sport the pod.
- 27:11Go go get a week or more of the best bet.
- 27:13Picks you, you would very much make me happy and contribute to
- 27:16my daughter's upcoming childcare fund, which ain't what is Jane
- 27:20cheap. I tell you that I'll be the way
- 27:22guys. Thank you for those of you who
- 27:23have signed up to get the best bets and are supporting.
- 27:26The team I really. Appreciate it.
- 27:27Have a download rhythm. Download Juice Real.
- 27:29Give them a five star review in the App Store.
- 27:32Next. Do you have a live odds page?
- 27:34If you don't have one, you need one and you got to try out Odds
- 27:37Logic. It's the best live odds page
- 27:38around. It's got all the different
- 27:40sports books, all the updated numbers and updates in real
- 27:43time, live in game wagering, odds, live scoring.
- 27:46You can shop for the best line number, find the book giving you
- 27:49the best price. One thing that I really like
- 27:51about Odds Logic is all these updates that they're putting out
- 27:54this summer. And I actually just saw a new
- 27:56update that they put out today. And the new update is a
- 27:59completely revamped line history tab.
- 28:02So if you tap the box or click with your finger or your mouse
- 28:05on any book, any any odds showing from any book, it'll now
- 28:09pull up the line history with an up or down arrow.
- 28:11Showing you each move. And just basically letting you
- 28:14know, not just open a current, but all.
- 28:16The moves in between. Was there buy back?
- 28:18Did it reach? A point.
- 28:19Up or down and then stop. And then go the.
- 28:21Other way where did the juice show liability?
- 28:25It's just a really great feature.
- 28:26Just. Give you more insight into the
- 28:28line movement which can really help you to identify sharp
- 28:30action. So if you've ever thought about
- 28:32trying odds logic, now is the time.
- 28:34I got a special link for youoddslogic.com/josh. 123 make
- 28:41sure. You do this slash Josh one 2-3
- 28:43at the end because that's going to give you a 7 day free trial
- 28:46and also 50% off your first month of service.
- 28:49Again, that's odds logic.com/josh 123 so that about
- 28:54does it for episode 538 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
- 28:58podcast. Lastly, guys, two final
- 29:00thoughts. One.
- 29:01Whether I see you at the. Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
- 29:04River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
- 29:06Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
- 29:09Boston, Plainridge Park casino MGM Springfield or the Nash on
- 29:13my neck in my neck of the woods on the border of Massachusetts
- 29:15in New Hampshire. Around the desert where the true
- 29:18grinders get down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
- 29:20runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
- 29:23Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
- 29:24plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when you catch a
- 29:27big ticket at Circa. Whatever it may be, hopefully
- 29:30you'll be showing me. From about a week, a week from
- 29:33now, a Joey Chestnut again. I'm kind of annoyed because I
- 29:37was so excited to tell everyone about the under 73 1/2 and then
- 29:40I, you know, update my Caesars and it's now 72 1/2.
- 29:43So again, good sign that that's probably the best number.
- 29:46If you played it, you're feeling good.
- 29:48Hopefully it won't. Matter and it's 72 or less.
- 29:52Chestnut how about you have 71 and win the thing and everyone's
- 29:54happy? Or 72 I guess.
- 29:56Cashed by the hook? Has anyone ever cashed by the
- 29:59hook on hot dog eating contest? Is that is that America?
- 30:02Is that sports betting or what? I'll be the one got either way,
- 30:05guys, show me that winning ticket.
- 30:07Hopefully first one's on me, next one's on you.
- 30:09We'll post about the book and celebrate the 4th of July
- 30:12together. So as always guys coming off a
- 30:14winning day, a losing day, a hot streak, a cold streak when we're
- 30:17cashing tickets left and right or we're cold as ice and can't
- 30:20catch a break. We just got to stay the course.
- 30:22We can't get too high when things are good or too low and
- 30:24things are bad. We got to think long term, play
- 30:27the system matches and just keep grinding as always.
- 30:29So we're looking for those games that are against the public,
- 30:32with the house, with the pros. Flat bet Avoid.
- 30:34Parlays and get that CLV if we can do.
- 30:36That we're going to be successful.
- 30:38Sports betters, so I hope. Everyone has a fantastic Monday
- 30:42here, getting back in the swing of things.
- 30:44Hopefully we can catch some tickets and I'll be right back
- 30:46at it tomorrow. That will be episode 5. 39 of
- 30:51the all systems go sports betting podcast powered by
- 30:54rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
- 30:56great Monday night.