Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 463 - 2/26/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 463 - 2/26/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 All Systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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welcome to episode 463 of the All Systems Go sports betting
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podcast powered by Rhythm. I'm your host, Josh Applebaum.
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What's going on, everyone? Happy Thirsty Thursday.
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Another day here in the arena, guys.
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And it because it is a Thursday, you know what that means?
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We got the rhythm rundown tonight, 6:00 PM Eastern Time.
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Looking forward to joining my buddy, as I always do, Mr. Cade
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Harper, one of the sharpest guys I know, to host another rhythm
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rundown. So if you haven't joined us yet,
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that's OK. Those of you who already have,
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thank you. Appreciate it but right at 6:00
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PM Eastern Time, go right on Twitter.
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You can find my account at Josh under score insights probably on
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the side of your Twitter page as well, where it shows people who
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are quote UN quote going live. Boom, you click that, you get
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right in. We're going to go through all
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the college hoops for tonight, going to talk about how to
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create a system, how to identify system matches and then we'll
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answer any questions and really the goal is it always is to help
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you guys utilize rhythm to its full advantage.
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So looking forward to that at six and then the nightcap for my
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Thursdays, busy Thursdays, but I will be joining my buddy Patrick
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Maher's show. So that'll be 9:00 PM Eastern
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Time. That is on SiriusXM and it is
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the Visa Live Tonight program. So looking forward to joining my
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buddy Patrick so big thirsty Thursday college hoops.
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We're going to get right back to it so huge slate today around 56
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games overall and I got 3 money line short favorites for you
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guys, including good line moves, some good sharp mush edges and
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one in particular that has not one but two rhythm green star
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recommendation. So as always, 3 plays let's try
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to go 2 and 1 eek out a winning night.
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Now looking back toward last night, guys, that's exactly what
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we did, 2 and 1 + 0.64 units. But you know what's funny guys?
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You go 2IN1 and I think you're always got to be happy.
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You know, you produce plus units, you're going to take it.
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You know how difficult and hard sports betting is to win at, you
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know, night in and night out. So you'll take it.
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But there are some nights where you scratch and claw and you're
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maybe looking at O and three or one and two and you eke out a
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2IN1 and you're happy with the two in one.
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Then there are nights where you go 2IN1 and you're like, damn
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it, I'm annoyed because we were looking at a three and O and
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couldn't get it. So we'll take 2 and 1 + 0.64
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units any, any night of the week because you have some great hits
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there with both San Diego State and Saint Joe's absolutely
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rolling. Never in doubt from start to
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finish. Just absolutely dominated.
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So shout out to the Aztecs and the and the Hawks.
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I think the, I don't know the the Jameer Nelson Delante West
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gambling God smiled down us on us with Saint Joe's and that was
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also a dance with the one who brung you play.
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Remember, Saint Joe's was dog to fave.
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It went back the other way toward George Mason, then came
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back toward Saint Joe's. So it was nice that we stayed
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with our original bet and cash with Saint Joe's.
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But the one play last night that really annoyed me was Ole Miss
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because Ole Miss lost in double overtime one O 6 to 99.
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Anytime you lose in double overtime, it's frustrating.
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What was really annoying with Ole Miss is that they had
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multiple opportunities with last possession.
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Last shot, turn off the shot clock.
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End of regulation, turn off the shot clock, end of the first
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overtime. Ole Miss had the ball in their
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hands. They could have scored either
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time to win it and walk off and we're a winner.
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But what do they do? They screwed up both times.
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Don't score, don't even drive the lane and try to get foul.
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Just putting up dumb shots. And then what happens?
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Double overtime or you know, Ole Miss loses to LSU.
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And if you watch that game, this kid Max McKinnon absolutely lit
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us up. Just could not be, could not be
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stopped. So unfortunately couldn't get
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Ole Miss frustrating multiple opportunities.
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You're losing double overtime. But we got the Aztecs, we got
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the Hawks. So again, 2 and 1 + 0.64 units,
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we will take it. But again, one of those two and
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ones where you really wanted to go 3 and O.
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But either way, guys, we're going to get right back to it
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and try to go for another two in one here tonight.
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So without further ado, 3 plays on the board.
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Let's start talking about each bet and set the stage splits,
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line movement. So you guys know the drill.
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I'm giving my place for these these plays tonight.
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So first one 7:00 PM Eastern Time we got New Haven visiting
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Wagner. 7:00 tip. Let's talk about this one.
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So New Haven comes in 13 and 16 on the year.
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Just saw their three-game win streak come to an end.
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However, they lost to Saint Francis of Pennsylvania 73 to 67
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lost outright as a 7 point home favorite.
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On the other hand, Wagner 11 and 16 on the year.
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They've won three of their last four, however, and just beat
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Saint Francis. Same team, 65 to 56.
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Covered as a 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
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So what is seen across the market?
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Here will this keep open with Wagner listed as a 1 1/2 point
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home favorite? And what are we seeing across
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the market? Nothing but movement toward
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Wagner. Wagner has been, First off,
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juiced up -1 1/2 -, 115 or -120 A lot of books are now showing
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-2 and I see a couple books even showing -2 1/2.
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So right off the bat, first thing we notice about this game
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is that especially when you're using your odds logic live odds
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page, you can see the open versus current, but all the
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moves in between. Pulling up the moves in between
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is important to me because when you notice this Wagner move, it
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was always moving toward Wagner 1 1/2 juice to 2 1/2.
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It never got down to 1. So that's my first indicator
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here of smart money leaning Wagner.
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The line either stayed the same or moved in only the direction
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of Wagner never got down to one, always is 1 1/2 or higher.
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Then we look at the splits at Draft Kings, 72% spread bets,
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but 80% of spread dollars are on Wagner.
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So good low bets, higher dollars discrepancy.
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And now let's do the the mascot test because this is another
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angle why I really like this one.
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Low bet, obscure sharp line. Can you name to me the two
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mascots here between Wagner and New Haven?
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Well, Wagner, the Seahawks, New Haven, the Chargers.
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This is an NFL game, but just goes to show you 2 little tiny
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schools. This is an added extra game. 6
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digit rotation #3 O 651-530-6516.
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Why is that important? Because that line move and those
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bet splits are even more meaningful to me because it's a
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tiny little game public wants. No, no, nothing to do with this
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game. They can't even find the game on
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their app yet we're seeing the line movement in the splits.
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Take it a position here on Wagner tells me pros have
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targeted this game. Ken Palm does have Wagner
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winning by 367 to 64. So if you wanted to lay the 1
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1/2 two 2 1/2 hey, Ken Palm has gotten by three.
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But this just gets me more excited to go money line with
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Wagner again. I'd hate to see them win by one
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or two. We lose or push our bet.
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So I got Wagner on the money line at -134 at Bally Bet.
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You can get -135 at DK or Caesar's right now.
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So really not a bad price. But definitely shop around
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because I'm seeing other books as high as -140 even -145.
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Wagner does have a few advantages here.
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That jumped out to me. The better offensive efficiency,
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290, second in the country versus 300 and 49th for New
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Haven. Better offensive rebound
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percentage, 92nd versus 300 and 55th.
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They shoot the three better, 36 versus 300 and 28th.
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And they have the better free throw shooting.
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Again, tight game. You got to make your free
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throws. 200 and 41st for Wagner doesn't sound great, but New
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Haven is 300 and eighth. Another little advantage here.
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Seahawks rest first. Tired might have heard before I
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kind of mentioned these last two games for both teams or the last
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game both of them played Saint Francis.
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So that's impossible that it was on the same day.
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Well, guess what, Seahawks played Saint Francis their last
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game on February 21st, New Haven last played on February 24th.
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So Wagner is rested and basically more time in the gym,
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rehab injuries, but more time to watch film against your
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opponent, prepare for your opponent.
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So an advantage there and a quick turn around for New Haven,
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Wagner's six and five at home, nothing amazing, but above 500
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New Haven, just 5 and 10 on the road.
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So on a back Wagner fade New Haven, this is also a revenge
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play. Again, we've been doing pretty
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decent knock on wood with these revenge angles.
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Basically, we're not automatically looking for
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revenge angles. We're looking at what how the
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market is reacting. But if that market move in my
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our system plays are also aligning with the revenge play,
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hey, that's a little added motivation.
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Well, Wagner did play New Haven back in mid January, lost on the
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road 80 to 74. So hopefully they have some
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payback on the mind. So added extra game.
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No one wants to play it. Public doesn't care about it.
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But line movement and splits toward Wagner.
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And oh, by the way, a 33% sharp mush edge from our friends at
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Juice Reel, also on Wagner. So first bed of the night for
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me, Wagner Seahawks on the money line can get him around -135
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next one for you. Another 7:00 PM tip Campbell
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visiting Drexel Campbell comes in 13 and 15 on the year.
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They have dropped two of their last three though just fell to
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UNC Wilmington 73 to 68, did not cover as a three-point home dog.
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Meanwhile, Drexel 15 and 14 on the year, they've won two
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straight, just beat Towson 68 to 62.
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Won that game outright as a 2 1/2 point home dog.
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So. What we're seeing across the
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market. Here this game open with Drexel
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listed around a one point home favorite.
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Very very short number here. Think some books might even been
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around to pick them. And it's all always notable to
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me. As you mentioned all the time,
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really short number. Which way does the line move?
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Well, if you look currently again, which can be a bit
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deceiving because you want to look at all the moves in
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between, but most books are showing Drexel open -1 and
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they're still -1 However, pulling up the line history
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shows you that Drexel earlier today got as high as -1 1/2 and
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even touch -2. So once again, we're seeing
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movement liability toward Drexel.
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This line never got down, you know, hopped the fence and went
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to Campbell -1 it's always pretty much been steady Drexel
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-1 or higher. It's not an added extra game
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game 783784, but it is a pretty low back game.
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So this tells me that we have movement liability toward
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Drexel. Drexel 62% spread bets. 73%
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spread dollars at DraftKings. So good low bets, higher dollar
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split. Ken Palm is Drexel winning by 1.
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So if he's got a winning by one, that means we need to money line
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Drexel here. Make sure that a win by one
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point is a winner for us. So really not a bad price at
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all. I got Drexel -118 you can get
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them as low as -115 but I am seeing some books like -120 so
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pretty cheap price. Kind of similar to San Diego
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State last night. But in addition to this line
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movement, Ken Poms got them by one.
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We can money line a short favorite.
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We are also looking at a good money line split.
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Drexel is getting 64% money line bets, 76% money line dollars and
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we have a lot of advantages here for Drexel, better defensive
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efficiency, 146th, 1st, 246th, so pretty big discrepancy there.
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Better effective field goal percentage, 189th, 1st, 200 and
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62nd. They shoot the three better,
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110th in the country versus 265th for Campbell and they hold
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their opponents to better effective field goal percentage,
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24th in the country, pretty darn good versus 300 and 33rd for
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Campbell. Lastly, this is a revenge play.
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Drexel did lose to Campbell 81 to 60 on the road back in early
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February. So we got revenge on the mind
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and we have a really good home Rd. split as well.
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Drexel 11:00 and 4:00 at home, Campbell 3 and 11 on the road.
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So movement splits, system matches.
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And then lastly, I actually didn't even put this into my
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sharp, sharp report earlier, but in the CAA, when you have two
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teams in the CAA conference, small little conference play
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each other and you just take the home favorite on the the money
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line. 32 and 1076 percent, 8% ROI this year.
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And then to put a cherry on top, Rhythm has Drexel -2.7 and also
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Rhythm has 2 Green Star recommended plays.
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Green Star recommended plays. I love to see them overlap with
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a play that I like, but they're both lighting up on the Drexel
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Money line. So second bet for me tonight.
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Drexel money line -115 -. 120 around there, last bed of the
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night. Stay up late, not quite as late
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as the last few nights as a 9:00 game, not an 11:00 but 9:00.
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Abilene Christian visiting Utah Tech now Abilene Christian comes
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in 13 and 14 on the year they've won three of their last four,
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just beat Southern Utah 87 to 83.
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Didn't cover though as an 8 point home favorite.
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Meanwhile, Utah Tech 17 and 12 on the year.
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They've won seven of their last eight.
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Just beat Charlton State 80 to 72 one outright as a 1 1/2 point
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Rd. dog. So what do you see across the
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market here? Well, this game opened with Utah
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Tech listed around a 2 1/2 point, 3 point home favorite.
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And we've seen this line pretty much show liability clearly
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toward Utah Tech because Utah Tech's gone from -2 1/2 up to -3
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some shops even reached as high as -3 1/2 earlier today.
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So we've never seen the sign get down to like, you know, 21 and a
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half one. It's always shown liability on
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Utah Tech. Now Utah Tech at DraftKings
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again, late late game, pretty low bet.
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Not an added extra game, game 825826, but a low back game.
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So the splits are meaningful to me. 86% of spread bets, 96% of
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spread dollars on Utah Tech, again lower back game.
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Tells me that's not totally public.
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Like you know what public better?
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Woke up today and said I got a bet Utah Tech Abilene Christian
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again, really not seeing that. So tells me more of the sharper
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betters have targeted Utah Tech with this split.
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Now, if you look at Ken Palm, he's got Utah Tech winning by
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572 to 67. He's also got the Trail Blazers
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ranked quite a bit higher, 175th in the country versus 230
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second. But again, Ken Palm's got him by
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5. You know, they're 2 1/2, three,
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3 1/2 across the market. You might say, hey, you know,
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lay the points, but I went with money line here.
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I got Utah Tech on the money line.
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Protect ourselves -155 that was that.
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I think either Valley Bet or the score.
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Some shops are as high as -160 -, 165.
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But also you look at the split on the money line, really good
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at DK, 85% bets, 97% dollars. Utah Tech has a quite a few
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advantages as well. You look into some of these
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analytics, they have the better offensive efficiency, 155th in
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the country versus 300 and 8th for Abilene, better effective
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field goal percentage, 132nd versus 330.
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First they shoot the three better, 157th versus 200 and
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99th for Abilene and they limit their opponents to a better
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effective field goal percentage, 108th versus 300 and 46th.
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By the way, Utah Tech 10 and two at home.
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I'm not sure if that's, you know, altitude related because I
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was watching Grand Canyon. I guess that's Arizona, but
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again, I'm a New Englander, so the Southwest is all similar to
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me, but maybe there's a little little altitude there, who
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knows? But Abilene is just three and
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nine on the road. So we have a move toward Utah
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Tech Good splits, Ken Pumps gotten by 5.
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A lot of stat advantages. Rhythm actually has Utah tech
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-3.2 and our friends at Juice Reel have a 25% sharp mush edge
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on Utah Tech. So add it all up guys.
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I'm going with the Trail Blazers, not the Portland Trail
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Blazers, the Utah Tech Trail Blazers money line -155 S
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Wagner, Drexel, Utah Tech, all three money lines.
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Let's try to scratch and claw and get 2 out of those 3.
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So that about does it for episode 463 of the All Systems
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Go Sports Betting podcast, Powered by Rhythm.
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This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
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And I always start first by saying thank you.
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Thank you for listening. Thank you for tuning in.
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Thank you for grinding in the arena with me every single day
16:10
through the UPS and the downs, the good and the bad, the hot
16:13
streaks, the cold streaks, the fact that we wake up every
16:15
morning regardless of if we had a great night or terrible night
16:18
or we're just grinding. And we have a positive attitude.
16:21
We approach the board without favoritism and bias.
16:24
We let the market speak to us. Then yeah, let the numbers talk
16:27
to you. But if you would like to help me
16:29
grow this pod, there are a few things you could do which would
16:32
make me very happy. 1 You could give this podcast a five star
16:35
review on Spotify or iTunes. You could leave a nice comment,
16:39
click the follow button, recommend the pod to a friend,
16:41
retweet the pod when I put it out at Josh under score
16:44
Insights. That would all be very cool of
16:46
you to do next. If you enjoy the style of
16:49
betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting
16:52
focusing on line movement bets, split system matches, making
16:55
bets with our head and not our heart.
16:57
If you'd like to learn more about data-driven betting, you'd
16:59
like to let me know you appreciate the pod or more
17:02
importantly, you have someone in your life who can use some
17:04
data-driven tips or wants to get into betting, but again, can't
17:07
tell you the difference between a teaser and AI.
17:09
Don't know a money line. You should go to Amazon.com and
17:14
type in the NFL Sharp betting playbook or type in the
17:17
everything guide to sports betting.
17:19
The two books that I've written, very proud of both, but they
17:22
make a great gift and hey, support the support the team.
17:25
Grab a copy of one or both my books.
17:28
I think you're going to enjoy them and then bring them to the
17:30
sports book. I'll sign them for you.
17:31
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
17:33
We'll sweat some more college hoops together tonight.
17:36
Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
17:38
My two favorite sports betting apps.
17:39
They help me win. I'm confident they're going to
17:41
help you win. So Rhythm is great for their AI
17:44
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props
17:47
tonight, 6:00 PM Rhythm rundown. So come on in if you're free, if
17:51
you want to learn more about rhythm, we're here to answer
17:53
your questions, of course, and then also juice reel.
17:55
Juice reel is a great app. So many different cool features.
17:59
I can sync up your sports books, get a running record and report
18:01
card of your action, but also you get the robo Jackson best
18:05
bet picks the sharp mush indicators.
18:07
The arbitrage plays the shop for the best sign features, but also
18:11
you can support the pod. This pods free.
18:13
It cost you nothing. You can tip your podcast host by
18:16
signing up to get the ASG best bets on Juice Reel.
18:19
As soon as I make a bet, it goes right to the ASG podcast page.
18:23
You can follow for $4.99 a week, so 5 bucks for seven days worth
18:28
of plays. If you want to follow forever or
18:31
just try it for a week, I would very much appreciate that.
18:34
But go download Rhythm, go download Juice Reel, give them
18:37
both a five star review in the App Store.
18:39
Next, do you have a live odds page?
18:41
If you don't have one, you need one.
18:44
Live odds page is so critical to being a successful and sharp
18:47
better because you got to be able to track the market.
18:49
You got to know what the market is doing, how it's moving, how
18:52
it's reacting, looking at comparing the opening column to
18:56
the current odds, pulling up the line history, finding the book
18:59
that gives you the best price, gives you the best money line.
19:01
A -, 120 versus a -, 130. These little things add up
19:05
overtime. And the best live odds page
19:07
around also gives you a live scoring, live in game wagering
19:09
odds. It's called odds logic.
19:12
You heard me talk about it before, but if you ever want to
19:14
try it out, go to thislinkoddslogic.com/josh 123.
19:20
That's going to give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off your
19:23
first month of service. So that about does it for
19:26
episode 463 of the ASG pod. As always, two final thoughts.
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One, whether I see you at the Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin
19:33
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
19:35
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in
19:39
Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield or the
19:42
Nash and my neck of the woods on the border of Massachusetts in
19:45
New Hampshire. We're out in the desert where
19:47
the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends his
19:49
number runners, where the lowest possible juice is found at the
19:53
South South Point or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping
19:56
in the stadium swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
19:59
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
20:02
Don't show me. Ole Miss blew it for us.
20:04
Had multiple chances. That was annoying.
20:06
But show me a San Diego State Aztecs, a Saint Joe's Hawks
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ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
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you. We'll post about the book and
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sweat more college hoops tonight.
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So as always, guys coming off a two and one or one and two, A3
20:17
and O or an O and three. A good night, a bad night, a hot
20:20
streak, a cold streak. There are times are going to be
20:23
really hot. There are times are going to be
20:24
cold. There are times when we're just
20:25
grinding. But the goal is to stay
20:27
consistent, stay discipline with our bankroll and just play the
20:31
system matches. When they appear to us, we play
20:33
them. When they check off the boxes,
20:34
we play it, we fire on the bet. But if there are red flags, if
20:38
there are things that you know, don't check off the boxes, the
20:40
boxes are unchecked, I guess you could say we have the discipline
20:43
to lay off. So we're looking for games that
20:45
fit that model against the public with the house, with the
20:48
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
20:51
If we can do that, which I'm confident that we can, then
20:54
we're going to be successful sports bettors.
20:56
So have a great Thirsty Thursday, everybody.
20:58
Hope to see you at six for the Rhythm Rundown.
21:00
Hope to see you at 9 for Patrick's show, but regardless,
21:05
we'll be right back at it tomorrow for a big feed the
21:07
public Friday edition. That'll be episode 464 of the
21:11
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
21:15
Good luck everybody and have a great Thursday night.