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AFC East Betting Preview with Warren Sharp · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:13
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
0:16
Speaker 1: am Chad Melman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:21
Speaker 1: We are continuing. We're in the final countdown of our
0:25
Speaker 1: Division previews series. We're coming down to the end. We
0:29
Speaker 1: have an amazing, brilliant, popular original guest with us today
0:37
Speaker 1: to talk about the AFC East. I will bring them
0:40
Speaker 1: on in a moment after I bring on my co host,
0:43
Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter Edo.
0:50
Speaker 2: So I'm in Hello Chad, good to be here, my guy.
0:54
Speaker 2: Definitely definitely want to say off the top, thank you
0:57
Speaker 2: to everyone that reached out about life and matter donated
1:00
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1:04
Speaker 2: nice to have so many fans of our show actually care.
1:06
Speaker 2: So yeah, still still in MAUI heading back East next
1:10
Speaker 2: or I guess this week now before the season starts.
1:13
Speaker 2: But I would say from where we were at two
1:16
Speaker 2: weeks ago to we are now, Chad, life is much
1:18
Speaker 2: better and more common MAUI. So thank you to everyone
1:21
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1:29
Speaker 2: So thanks again to everyone.
1:32
Speaker 1: You know what I find simon gamblers, they live by
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Speaker 1: a very different code. I mean this in all seriousness,
1:41
Speaker 1: and they have their hearts in the right place.
1:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. I would say it was shocking to know
1:52
Speaker 2: so many people care, just because at the time we
1:54
Speaker 2: did the show, it was really before the mainstream media
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Speaker 2: kind of got onto what was happening here in Mala.
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Speaker 2: big it really was until I really saw how many
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Speaker 2: people had donated. It was. It was in the thousand,
2:14
Speaker 2: so pretty amazing all you guys donating it. It really
2:18
Speaker 2: was something special.
2:21
Speaker 1: Speaking of big shows, our guests, who I'm going to
2:23
Speaker 1: bring on in a second, also has a massive, massive
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Speaker 1: live on YouTube. Don't forget to like and subscribe to
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Speaker 1: tell everybody how to sign up. It's going to be exciting.
3:42
Speaker 1: We will start doing the podcast Sunday Nights live on
3:47
Speaker 1: the first Sunday of the NFL season. Then we're Tuesday
3:50
Speaker 1: Thursday Sunday for the rest of the year. Also one
3:54
Speaker 1: other reminder, Chris Raybon, Stucky, Brandon Anderson, and the whole
4:00
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast team has returned with their full lineup
4:05
Speaker 1: of NFL episodes leading up to Week one We have
4:08
Speaker 1: our AFC betting previews up now with NFC up next.
4:13
Speaker 1: Lots more good stuff, folks, and Simon and I were
4:16
Speaker 1: just talking about this yesterday. If you were not reading
4:18
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson in the Action Network app or on actionetwork
4:21
Speaker 1: dot com, you are missing out offensive line rankings today
4:26
Speaker 1: or last night. He went up with the best offenses
4:28
Speaker 1: in the NFL. It is so good and so smart.
4:32
Speaker 1: There's a lot of surprise, a lot of really good
4:34
Speaker 1: analysis in there. You know what I'm gonna do right now.
4:38
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about the AFC East, which I think
4:40
Speaker 1: might be one of the most hyped and most interesting
4:44
Speaker 1: divisions in football, and it's appropriate to discuss that we
4:49
Speaker 1: have one of the most interesting men in sports betting media,
4:55
Speaker 1: Warren Shappello.
4:57
Speaker 3: Warren, Hey, guys, I don't get the like the uh,
5:01
Speaker 3: you know, the voice interjection with when you introduce Simon
5:04
Speaker 3: with the British accent, you know, but I do appreciate
5:07
Speaker 3: the welcome chat. It's been a long time, But enjoy
5:11
Speaker 3: all of you guys content over there at the Action Network,
5:13
Speaker 3: and certainly you guys have a great podcast.
5:16
Speaker 1: Look, Warren's great and if you have not checked out
5:19
Speaker 1: Warren's Sharp Football Analysis NFL preview book, which Simon and
5:24
Speaker 1: I have talked about with rich Riebar, who is a
5:27
Speaker 1: contributor to Sharp Football Analysis, which is Warren's website. He's
5:31
Speaker 1: a contributor to the book. Warren also does a betting
5:34
Speaker 1: podcast on The Ringer, which is fantastic. He does it
5:36
Speaker 1: with House, who I love, but Warren, we had rich
5:38
Speaker 1: On we talked about the book. Give people a little
5:41
Speaker 1: bit of background about how long you've been doing this book,
5:44
Speaker 1: because it is it is as comprehensive a preview book
5:49
Speaker 1: as it is for the NFL. It has blown all
5:51
Speaker 1: the other preview books out of the water.
5:53
Speaker 3: Really started turning into it probably like five years ago,
5:57
Speaker 3: I would say, when I got my hands on more
5:59
Speaker 3: of the play by played data and I really was
6:01
Speaker 3: trying to uncover different ways to attack the league that
6:05
Speaker 3: wasn't being talked about enough in my opinion. Now it's ballooned.
6:10
Speaker 3: I mean it's like five hundred and thirty two pages.
6:13
Speaker 3: Right now, this thing is like a phone book, literally,
6:17
Speaker 3: but we break down all thirty two teams. There's stuff
6:20
Speaker 3: for fantasy, there's stuff for betting, and basically what I
6:22
Speaker 3: try to do is give you a quick way to
6:25
Speaker 3: process why this team had its record that they did
6:29
Speaker 3: last year, because I am a firm believer in that
6:32
Speaker 3: the Bill Parcells ism you are what your record says
6:34
Speaker 3: you are is complete wrong, and that there's a lot
6:37
Speaker 3: of reasons why a team might have had a record
6:39
Speaker 3: they did. We have to undercover the real backbone of
6:43
Speaker 3: what this team is. Then what pieces did they lose coaches, players,
6:48
Speaker 3: What pieces did they gain coaches players between last year
6:51
Speaker 3: and this year, and then try to come up with
6:53
Speaker 3: what the projections are for them for this upcoming season.
6:56
Speaker 3: And so right now, I know that some people listening
6:59
Speaker 3: might say, one hundred and thirty two pages, how am
7:01
Speaker 3: I going to digest this? There's two weeks till the
7:03
Speaker 3: start of the season. Well, for that reason, for only
7:06
Speaker 3: four dollars ninety nine cents, you can get it now
7:09
Speaker 3: at the website. Just go to sharp dot football and
7:12
Speaker 3: use the code action just for you guys in your podcast.
7:15
Speaker 3: Anybody wants to get it, you can get it for
7:17
Speaker 3: less than five dollars. It's a great way to spend
7:20
Speaker 3: a couple bucks before the season starts.
7:22
Speaker 1: Couldn't agree more. I love that we're ripping legendary coaches
7:28
Speaker 1: where pimp and football previews. I mean, we are going
7:33
Speaker 1: full bore on the pot. We're making Matt Mitchell nervous.
7:36
Speaker 1: His head is sweating in a basement in Milwaukee right now.
7:40
Speaker 1: That's all you need to know. When Rich was on
7:44
Speaker 1: Warren a few weeks ago, we talked about the stat
7:49
Speaker 1: that you've sort of created, and that speaks to this threat,
7:55
Speaker 1: the strength of schedule as it relates to rest for
7:58
Speaker 1: your opponents and yourself and preparation for your opponents and
8:02
Speaker 1: for yourself. Explain how you came up with that stat,
8:06
Speaker 1: because today, while we've got you on the podcast, you know,
8:10
Speaker 1: as we've been going through these previews, Simon and I
8:12
Speaker 1: we've talked about strength of schedule. We've talked about the
8:15
Speaker 1: components of a team we think are most important, as
8:18
Speaker 1: we're trying to lay out where we think the best
8:20
Speaker 1: opportunities for betting are. This is something very specific, and
8:23
Speaker 1: I'm going to ask Simon sort of how he thinks
8:25
Speaker 1: about this, because I know he was impressed by it.
8:28
Speaker 1: How did you come up with this stat? Explain to
8:30
Speaker 1: people what it is.
8:32
Speaker 3: Well, there's a big difference between the strength of schedule,
8:35
Speaker 3: which is what the league gives you. Most of it's
8:38
Speaker 3: known well in advance because they rotate divisions and we
8:41
Speaker 3: know what the game plan is years ahead. A couple
8:44
Speaker 3: games are based upon where you finished last year, and
8:47
Speaker 3: we know who you're going to play, you know, the
8:49
Speaker 3: moment the last second ticks off the clock week eighteen.
8:52
Speaker 3: But what we don't know is when you're going to
8:54
Speaker 3: play those teams, and that is a big factor, and
8:56
Speaker 3: we don't know that until mid May when the NFL
8:59
Speaker 3: roll out their schedule, and the difference between what they
9:03
Speaker 3: do there in mid May and what we know after
9:06
Speaker 3: Week eighteen is that Week eighteen that ends. The NFL
9:09
Speaker 3: can't control who you're going to play, but the NFL
9:12
Speaker 3: has complete control over when you're going to play these teams,
9:16
Speaker 3: and more importantly, beyond just when. It's how much rest
9:19
Speaker 3: advantage do you have or how much rest advantage does
9:23
Speaker 3: your opponent have? And they're big factors, especially later on
9:26
Speaker 3: in the season. And I started diving into this a
9:29
Speaker 3: little bit because I realized that, you know, I look
9:31
Speaker 3: for areas that I don't think enough discussion is occurring
9:36
Speaker 3: with regard to those, and I try to capitalize on
9:39
Speaker 3: that to look for value. And what I uncovered is
9:43
Speaker 3: that there is a meaningful value both in ats, particularly
9:47
Speaker 3: later on in the season, as well as season win
9:51
Speaker 3: totals based upon your rest disparity versus your opponents and
9:55
Speaker 3: the accumulation of that over the course of the season. So,
9:58
Speaker 3: for example, you know you play a game on a
10:00
Speaker 3: Thursday night, your opponent plays a game on a Monday night.
10:04
Speaker 3: You are going to have an edge there of several
10:07
Speaker 3: days to get ready for your next game, whether that's
10:09
Speaker 3: on a Sunday or you know, the next Monday night.
10:12
Speaker 3: In either case, you've got an edge. Some cases, your
10:15
Speaker 3: opponent might have might have a disadvantage less than a week,
10:18
Speaker 3: and now your edge is even more pronounced. Some cases,
10:21
Speaker 3: the NFL schedules your opponent to have a bye week
10:24
Speaker 3: the same time as your bye week, So while you
10:26
Speaker 3: don't have a disadvantage, you don't gain the edge that
10:29
Speaker 3: you might have otherwise had by having that bye week
10:32
Speaker 3: and that extra time to rest and prepare for your opponent.
10:35
Speaker 3: And so I've dug into that it takes a couple
10:38
Speaker 3: of days really well maybe like a full night to
10:42
Speaker 3: really process the information as soon as the schedule is announced,
10:46
Speaker 3: and then I write an article and then I start
10:48
Speaker 3: using it actually to bet some of the games because
10:50
Speaker 3: Dodds makers come out with their you know, weeks two
10:53
Speaker 3: to eighteen lines like the very next day as quickly
10:56
Speaker 3: as they possibly can get them out, because it's obviously
10:59
Speaker 3: profit to get those numbers out, to get people into
11:02
Speaker 3: your book, open up accounts and start betting. But there's
11:05
Speaker 3: no way possible that they're factoring in some of these
11:07
Speaker 3: rest edges. And I can just tell you. I mean,
11:10
Speaker 3: since twenty fifteen, teams with three or more day rest
11:13
Speaker 3: advantage after week thirteen have won fifty five percent of
11:17
Speaker 3: the games covered ats fifty five point seven. That's over
11:20
Speaker 3: one hundred game sample. So we're not talking like just
11:23
Speaker 3: twenty games here, thirty games here. We are talking one
11:25
Speaker 3: hundred games. It's not as meaningful as you know, a
11:28
Speaker 3: thousand games, but it still is important to look at
11:32
Speaker 3: and factor in. And fifty five point seven assignment will
11:34
Speaker 3: tell you is a really good rate if you're doing
11:36
Speaker 3: nothing and factoring nothing in but rest. And by the
11:39
Speaker 3: time you get to the start of those games, you
11:41
Speaker 3: know rest is understood. But weeks out, you know, months
11:45
Speaker 3: out in advance, you know the odds makers aren't really
11:49
Speaker 3: calculating or factoring in rest, and so I think it's
11:52
Speaker 3: important to understand that and use it as a factor.
11:56
Speaker 3: You know, I would never advocate just taking this fifty
11:59
Speaker 3: five point seven, even though it's a good percentage and
12:01
Speaker 3: you can you know, make money, solid money just betting
12:03
Speaker 3: nothing but that, I would never really advocate doing nothing,
12:07
Speaker 3: no handicapping at all, butt betting rest or butt betting
12:09
Speaker 3: strength as schedule, but it's absolutely something that you should
12:12
Speaker 3: be factoring into your calculus. And in the book, every
12:16
Speaker 3: single team, I list out their schedule and how many
12:20
Speaker 3: days of a rest advantage they have over their opponent,
12:23
Speaker 3: and then I also show tumulative you know, over the
12:26
Speaker 3: entire season.
12:27
Speaker 1: Simon, what impressed you about this that went to a
12:31
Speaker 1: level you hadn't seen before?
12:34
Speaker 2: I would say, especially when it came onto the market.
12:36
Speaker 2: People don't unders say how big of a deal it
12:38
Speaker 2: is that these teams have many bye weeks later in
12:40
Speaker 2: the season compared to other teams are playing against. Like,
12:42
Speaker 2: to me, that's a huge deal. Where all these players
12:45
Speaker 2: talk about it, I mean everyone's beat up, especially after
12:48
Speaker 2: Week ten, Week eleven, everyone's got injuries. Those little mini
12:51
Speaker 2: bye weeks are a big deal, especially when you're betting
12:54
Speaker 2: teams futures, long term bets. So I look at all
12:56
Speaker 2: that stuff, especially certain teams that I mean good examples
13:00
Speaker 2: of the Jets. The Jets have been a dumpster fire
13:03
Speaker 2: ever since Sanchez and the Rex Ryan air, so they
13:05
Speaker 2: have not been in primetime games. Now if you look
13:08
Speaker 2: at their schedule, I think they have four or five
13:09
Speaker 2: primetime games. It's a upcoming season. That's a big deal. Right.
13:13
Speaker 2: That means they have shorter weeks, especially if they're playing
13:15
Speaker 2: on a Sunday night or a Monday night compared to
13:17
Speaker 2: the teams they're playing against those upcoming weeks. So you know,
13:20
Speaker 2: Warren was definitely ahead of the market in this sense,
13:22
Speaker 2: and I think you talked about it where you just
13:24
Speaker 2: want to blindly just bet it because the books are
13:26
Speaker 2: eventually going to catch up to some of this stuff, right,
13:27
Speaker 2: they have this information we have that Warren's nice enough
13:31
Speaker 2: to give to us, where the books are going to
13:33
Speaker 2: use that stuff, and they're gonna use it against the public.
13:35
Speaker 2: I mean, that's just what they do. So to me,
13:38
Speaker 2: it's I feel like he nailed it where it's not
13:40
Speaker 2: the end all be all right, It's not you're not
13:42
Speaker 2: going to blindly bet this one statistic, but when you're
13:45
Speaker 2: using a bunch of different stuff, it's a great tool
13:47
Speaker 2: to use. And that's why, you know, when people ask
13:49
Speaker 2: me about it, I always say I love, especially when
13:52
Speaker 2: the book comes out. I love looking at the different
13:54
Speaker 2: teams and how it's set up for them schedule wise,
13:56
Speaker 2: because it sounds crazy, but it's a huge edge where
13:59
Speaker 2: last I mean, we were all over the Eagles chat.
14:01
Speaker 2: I mean, how long did we talk about Egles being
14:03
Speaker 2: the number one seed being the best in the NFC.
14:06
Speaker 2: If you go back and you look, Warren was on
14:08
Speaker 2: was on it ahead of time about their scheduling. They
14:10
Speaker 2: had an easy schedule because they're playing so many inexperienced
14:14
Speaker 2: quarterbacks and they had good rest disparity where they're playing
14:17
Speaker 2: teams that you know they weren't coming off buys for
14:19
Speaker 2: this year. I think the Eagles have a run where
14:21
Speaker 2: they play five teams coming off of bye. It's something
14:23
Speaker 2: crazy like that, where that doesn't sound like like that's
14:26
Speaker 2: that big of a deal, but it is. When you're
14:27
Speaker 2: giving these coaches an extra week to prepare for this offense.
14:30
Speaker 2: So again that's it's not the NLLB all stat but
14:33
Speaker 2: it is something I'm obsessive of looking at just because
14:35
Speaker 2: it's a big deal when you factor into the season
14:38
Speaker 2: long odd betting, that stuff we'd like to bet on.
14:40
Speaker 1: Hi, Well, listen, we're going to talk about it today
14:42
Speaker 1: with the AFC East, assuming that's the conference we're doing
14:46
Speaker 1: or the division we're doing, and we're probably gonna, you know,
14:48
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about it going forward. I think
14:50
Speaker 1: it's a fascinating stat. Let me remind you, Simon and Warren. Nine.
14:55
Speaker 1: This is from Evan Abrams, our senior research or our
14:59
Speaker 1: head of research, crack researcher. Nine of the last ten
15:03
Speaker 1: Super Bowl champions have been listed at plus twelve hundred
15:08
Speaker 1: or shorter to win it all in the preseason, so
15:11
Speaker 1: twelve to one or less. Right this year, right now,
15:15
Speaker 1: there is a team from the AFC East that is
15:17
Speaker 1: listed at twelve to one or less. That is the
15:19
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. They're plus eight fifties, so eight and a
15:21
Speaker 1: half to one at bet three sixty five for the record,
15:25
Speaker 1: And this is an example of overhype knocking on the door.
15:29
Speaker 1: The New York Jets at fourteen to one. We're going
15:32
Speaker 1: to get into all these teams people all of these teams.
15:36
Speaker 1: I think we got to start with the Buffalo Bills.
15:38
Speaker 1: Let's start at number one, right, So right now, their
15:41
Speaker 1: win total is ten and a half, the over is
15:44
Speaker 1: minus one fifty there plus one twenty to win the division.
15:48
Speaker 1: As I said, their plus eight fifty to win the
15:50
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, per Sean Kerner. So in the same way
15:55
Speaker 1: that Warren takes a different look at strength to schedule,
16:00
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, who I've been referencing for his strength of
16:02
Speaker 1: schedule stats in all the preview podcasts, has the Bills
16:06
Speaker 1: as having the sixth hardest schedule, and I will say
16:08
Speaker 1: he has the AFCUT AFC East is having the hardest
16:11
Speaker 1: schedule in the NFL. And Sean also does this dynamically,
16:17
Speaker 1: like he is updating it based on rosters. It is
16:20
Speaker 1: not a set it and forget it by what we
16:23
Speaker 1: see in May. It is changing dynamically. On I'll start
16:26
Speaker 1: with you, anything appetizing to you ten and a half
16:30
Speaker 1: over under plus one twenty to win the division, plus
16:34
Speaker 1: eight fifty to win the Super Bowl. Is there anything
16:36
Speaker 1: there that is appetizing to you?
16:38
Speaker 3: Well, quite simply no. But I wanted to fade the Bills.
16:42
Speaker 3: I really came into the season trying to find a
16:46
Speaker 3: reason to fade the Bills this year, and I know
16:49
Speaker 3: Matt Mitchell is not going to like hearing that, but
16:52
Speaker 3: because I know he's a big Buffalo Bills fan.
16:56
Speaker 1: The Bills make me one.
17:00
Speaker 3: Last year I advocated not betting the Bills before the
17:03
Speaker 3: season and jumping on them later this year. If you
17:06
Speaker 3: are going to bet them, you probably do want to
17:07
Speaker 3: bet them earlier because their schedule is a little bit
17:11
Speaker 3: more difficult down the stretch. But I could not chad
17:14
Speaker 3: find any value in going under ten and a half
17:18
Speaker 3: because I don't like the worst case scenario. And if
17:21
Speaker 3: you say, if your quarterback gets injured, and we know
17:23
Speaker 3: how much Josh Allen means to this team, I don't
17:26
Speaker 3: like playing that game because then you might as well
17:29
Speaker 3: play it for all thirty two teams. So I'm trying
17:31
Speaker 3: not to say if your quarterback gets injured. There's not
17:34
Speaker 3: really any scenario that I can see where the Bills
17:36
Speaker 3: are winning fewer than nine games this year, and this
17:39
Speaker 3: is still an elite team, it's still a sound team,
17:43
Speaker 3: and they're only at ten and a half, and so
17:45
Speaker 3: I don't see enough value going under. But they do
17:49
Speaker 3: as you kind of alluded to play a ridiculously difficult schedule,
17:53
Speaker 3: especially down the stretch. And when we look back and
17:57
Speaker 3: look at what they did last year and all those
17:58
Speaker 3: wins they rattled off late in the season off of
18:01
Speaker 3: the Skyler Thompson's and the mac Jones and the Kobe
18:04
Speaker 3: Burssetts and the Joe Flaccos and the you know, justin
18:08
Speaker 3: fields like all those wins, You're not going up against
18:11
Speaker 3: a brutal schedule this year, where from Week nine on,
18:14
Speaker 3: where you're playing Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes,
18:18
Speaker 3: Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and then you do off your
18:21
Speaker 3: mac Jones, a game against TUA and a game against
18:24
Speaker 3: russ It's just a much more difficult schedule. I'm just
18:28
Speaker 3: a little leery about McDermott, but I'll toss it back
18:31
Speaker 3: to you. You know, from a value perspective, I don't
18:34
Speaker 3: see a lot for the Bills, Diamond.
18:37
Speaker 2: I was there with Warren last year. I just I
18:39
Speaker 2: faded the Bills in every way I could because I
18:42
Speaker 2: couldn't go with the fact that they were the number
18:43
Speaker 2: one team right to be the Super Bowl favorite like
18:46
Speaker 2: that would to me was last season was the definition
18:49
Speaker 2: of an overreaction to the previous season.
18:52
Speaker 1: Right.
18:52
Speaker 2: They had gone down to the clock with the Chiefs.
18:54
Speaker 2: The public just loved that team. And did I know
18:57
Speaker 2: how big the deal was going to be that Brian
18:58
Speaker 2: had left them to go to the Giants Dabo to
19:00
Speaker 2: be the head coach. No I knew how good of
19:02
Speaker 2: an offensive coordinated he was, but a lot of pros
19:05
Speaker 2: I've talked through this season, Chad, that's why they're still
19:07
Speaker 2: not all in on the Bills. I just think that
19:09
Speaker 2: was such a big loss to this team that this
19:12
Speaker 2: man is an offensive genius. I mean, we've seen it
19:15
Speaker 2: like this. The Giants look like they have a new identity, right.
19:17
Speaker 2: We saw them really take huge strides last year with
19:20
Speaker 2: not that much talent. This Bills team last year, to me,
19:22
Speaker 2: seemed like they had a season from hell and they
19:25
Speaker 2: still were able to win this division. Right, Like Gabe
19:27
Speaker 2: Davis rolled his ankle? What was that week one? One
19:30
Speaker 2: of the star receivers, Josh Allen, injured his elbow midway
19:32
Speaker 2: through the season. He played through that injury of the
19:35
Speaker 2: entire season. You could see too, his throwing mechanic was
19:37
Speaker 2: totally different after that point of injury in his elbow.
19:40
Speaker 2: So to me, this is a team that I was
19:42
Speaker 2: all about fading last year. This year, I'm just alling
19:44
Speaker 2: them like I love the Bills in the sense of,
19:48
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's gonna get much better than
19:49
Speaker 2: this season. Right They're gonna have their big issue right
19:53
Speaker 2: now for sure. To any professional he talked to, is
19:55
Speaker 2: that offensive line that is truly an issue. But when
19:58
Speaker 2: you have a runner and a strong Q be like
20:00
Speaker 2: Josh Allen in the gates that and on the outside,
20:04
Speaker 2: they still have digs, they still have Gabe Davis. Now,
20:07
Speaker 2: they have Cook in the backfield. Now they have a
20:08
Speaker 2: rookie tight end that we all think is gonna be
20:10
Speaker 2: a stud. It's just all there for this Bills team.
20:12
Speaker 2: So I was completely negative off the bandwagon lash for
20:17
Speaker 2: the Bills. This year, I'm on them like they're third team.
20:20
Speaker 2: I love, I love, I love teams, just like the
20:23
Speaker 2: Chiefs last year. I love a team in a really
20:24
Speaker 2: tough division that's gonna really push them to be playoff
20:28
Speaker 2: ready all season. Right, Like at the end of the year,
20:30
Speaker 2: I liked that they have so many tough games because
20:32
Speaker 2: it feels like they're gonna be in playoff mode, except
20:35
Speaker 2: last year they slept walk through that final month of
20:37
Speaker 2: the season and they got caught in the playoffs. I mean,
20:39
Speaker 2: they literally almost lost to Miami at home with a
20:41
Speaker 2: backup quarterback Like That's there were major issues last year
20:45
Speaker 2: for this Bills team, and I think this year they're
20:47
Speaker 2: gonna overcome a lot of that. So and with Warren,
20:51
Speaker 2: it's not great value on the Super Bowl future. You
20:54
Speaker 2: can throw a little on if you're getting plus nine hundred,
20:56
Speaker 2: you're geting plus eight fifty. I don't hate it. If
20:58
Speaker 2: you want to roll the dice and maybe think they
21:00
Speaker 2: might get upset Week one by the Jets, you can
21:02
Speaker 2: hold off on that bet. But I did bet their
21:04
Speaker 2: win total over ten and a half is just too low.
21:06
Speaker 2: Like that, to me is an overreaction to the Rogers
21:09
Speaker 2: being in their division, right, to Miami being a little
21:11
Speaker 2: bit better than what people thought they were last year.
21:14
Speaker 2: I think that the public always likes the new toy, Chad, right,
21:19
Speaker 2: That's just how the public is. They always like the
21:21
Speaker 2: new thing that's coming along. The Bills, aren't. Aren't that anymore?
21:24
Speaker 2: To a lot of people that are like, well, we've
21:27
Speaker 2: liked the Bills. We've always given them like the Super
21:29
Speaker 2: Bowl betting favorites last three years, and they just never
21:31
Speaker 2: looked to the hype. Either choke or they let down
21:34
Speaker 2: the playoffs. And to me, I want to come back
21:36
Speaker 2: on the other side now. So I do think if
21:39
Speaker 2: you're a Bills fans is lined up for this year,
21:43
Speaker 2: like you just have so much talent across that offense
21:46
Speaker 2: and the D line. I mean, I don't know when
21:47
Speaker 2: von Miller's be back. When he is back, that's a
21:50
Speaker 2: huge upgrade to that D line position. So yeah, to me, Chad,
21:55
Speaker 2: I did the over ten and a half. I threw
21:57
Speaker 2: a really small bet on the division. We'll talk about
21:59
Speaker 2: my favorit bet for the division this division, but you know,
22:03
Speaker 2: ten and a half to me, that's a nice price.
22:05
Speaker 2: Minus one fifty, minus one forty, whatever you can get
22:07
Speaker 2: at the book. I would take that. Like, to me,
22:10
Speaker 2: I got them at eleven point six wins, so I
22:12
Speaker 2: got them a full win above what they're being projected
22:14
Speaker 2: right now by the books. That's a really nice number.
22:17
Speaker 2: So for me, that's the bet I'm making right now
22:19
Speaker 2: is taking their over win total.
22:21
Speaker 1: My notes tell me that Brandon Anderson has the Bills
22:25
Speaker 1: as the second best offense in the NFL because Josh
22:29
Speaker 1: Allen returns, because they're a year removed from your point, Simon,
22:34
Speaker 1: Brian Dayball, and I think that they were impacted by that.
22:38
Speaker 1: So now they've got a year to get their head straight.
22:41
Speaker 1: They've added Damian Harris as a good number two option,
22:45
Speaker 1: more of a power running back. Offensive line middling twenty
22:49
Speaker 1: second according to Brandon. We're going to talk deeper in
22:52
Speaker 1: the offensive lines with Ross Tucker on Thursday, number seven
22:56
Speaker 1: ranked defensive line according to PFF. Because of potential for
23:00
Speaker 1: Von Miller to come back, I think I'm making the
23:03
Speaker 1: Bills Niners my super Bowl matchup. Yeah, we weren't a
23:08
Speaker 1: shaking his head.
23:09
Speaker 3: There's a couple of things that I want to add here.
23:11
Speaker 3: First of all, there were some improvements with Dorsey that
23:15
Speaker 3: weren't there with Dabell. But I completely mirror Simon's opinion
23:18
Speaker 3: about Brian Dabele. One of my favorite play callers, one
23:22
Speaker 3: of the most dynamic. He's able to change his game
23:25
Speaker 3: plan on a week to week basis to attack his opponents.
23:27
Speaker 3: He really focuses in understands what wins and loses games
23:31
Speaker 3: in the NFL and tries to stick with what wins.
23:33
Speaker 3: But last year, you know, one of the great things
23:35
Speaker 3: about this rushing attack was they had two point nine
23:39
Speaker 3: yards before contact per running back run on first down.
23:42
Speaker 3: That was by far the best in the NFL. And
23:45
Speaker 3: I think James Cook there a plus, Damien Harris there
23:49
Speaker 3: a plus. But the one cool thing about Dorsey was
23:51
Speaker 3: that he did not overuse that. You know, he could
23:54
Speaker 3: have leaned more into it seeing what they were getting
23:56
Speaker 3: out of it, but instead they still stayed very past heavy.
23:59
Speaker 3: So that boat well for this upcoming season and that hey,
24:02
Speaker 3: maybe we're going to still be able to run the ball.
24:04
Speaker 3: What that will do is if we don't get bypassing
24:07
Speaker 3: a third down, we're still going to have a third
24:10
Speaker 3: and manageable if you're productive on those first two downs.
24:14
Speaker 3: And so for that reason, I think that that was
24:15
Speaker 3: a positive. Their run defense, speaking of sticking on the
24:19
Speaker 3: ground with the trenches, which is I know something Simon likes.
24:22
Speaker 3: The run defense last year was terrible. It's hard for
24:24
Speaker 3: them to get worse than what they were last year.
24:26
Speaker 3: They allowed between the tackles five point one yards per
24:30
Speaker 3: care that was thirty first in the NFL. They allowed
24:33
Speaker 3: sixteen percent of runs to gain ten plus yards that
24:35
Speaker 3: was dead last in the NFL. They bring in Poonaford,
24:39
Speaker 3: hopefully they're going to be able to get more out
24:42
Speaker 3: of this ground game too. Defensively to prevent teams from
24:46
Speaker 3: just running up the gut on them quite as frequently
24:48
Speaker 3: this upcoming season. But if you look at this team,
24:51
Speaker 3: I really value early down efficiency metrics, and this team
24:54
Speaker 3: last year, in so many of their games, even without
24:57
Speaker 3: day ball they're calling the shots, was just so elite
25:00
Speaker 3: in early downs and had the advantage in games in
25:03
Speaker 3: early downs against their opponents. So they're going to just
25:05
Speaker 3: have to continue doing that. And then the last thing,
25:07
Speaker 3: I wrote an article on my website. I'm going back
25:10
Speaker 3: to my roots, Chad. You know, when you and I
25:12
Speaker 3: were first getting together, I used to write a lot
25:15
Speaker 3: about analytics and data, and then I got away from that.
25:18
Speaker 3: The last couple of years, I've been writing more about
25:20
Speaker 3: betting on you know, various other platforms. I'm going back
25:23
Speaker 3: to short football analysis this year, and I'm writing on
25:25
Speaker 3: my site and I'm writing about whatever I want to.
25:27
Speaker 3: And so I wrote a detailed article about the thing
25:30
Speaker 3: that differentiates the Bills from the Chiefs. As you're picking
25:33
Speaker 3: the Bills to make it to the Super Bowl this
25:35
Speaker 3: year more than anything, because these are the top two
25:38
Speaker 3: offenses in the NFL by far the last several years,
25:40
Speaker 3: number one and number two in literally every single statistical
25:43
Speaker 3: metric that matters, except for down near the goal line,
25:47
Speaker 3: where it might shock you as it did me. The
25:50
Speaker 3: Buffalo Bills have the worst offense in the NFL down
25:54
Speaker 3: inside the three yard line, down at the goal line
25:57
Speaker 3: the worst, like not just twenty eighth, like literally dead last,
26:01
Speaker 3: And in part it's because of the play designs that
26:04
Speaker 3: they use, and so it's just so different between the
26:06
Speaker 3: play designs that they've been using, especially under Dorsey, with
26:09
Speaker 3: what like Andy Reid was using with Patrick Mahomes, two
26:12
Speaker 3: of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. But they get
26:15
Speaker 3: the ball out of Patrick Mahomes's hands so quickly, and
26:18
Speaker 3: one of the biggest things down at the goal line
26:19
Speaker 3: is just complete the pass, because if you complete a
26:22
Speaker 3: pass down near the goal line, your odds of scoring
26:24
Speaker 3: are very high. And with the Buffalo Bills, all of
26:27
Speaker 3: these designs are like Josh Allen holding the ball for
26:30
Speaker 3: among the league's highest rate, and the completion rate is
26:33
Speaker 3: one of the worst in the NFL, like thirty eight
26:35
Speaker 3: percent completion rate because they're holding onto the ball too much.
26:38
Speaker 3: If Dorsey's able to fix that and they improve down
26:42
Speaker 3: inside the goal line when they get there, I mean,
26:44
Speaker 3: that's exactly the next step this team needs to take
26:46
Speaker 3: to maybe eventually knock off the Kansas City Chiefs and
26:49
Speaker 3: make it to their first Super Bowl in ages.
26:51
Speaker 1: By the way, when you and I first started working together,
26:54
Speaker 1: you mean, when I discovered you and pulled you from
26:56
Speaker 1: the scrap heap of being an expert witness for engineering
27:01
Speaker 1: and gave you a platform to write about analytics when
27:04
Speaker 1: it comes to over unders. Yeah, that was like thirteen
27:07
Speaker 1: years ago.
27:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, that was a great day. I really appreciate
27:12
Speaker 3: you for that. Yeah, being outside of my engineering profession
27:15
Speaker 3: is the best is the best thing that's happened to me.
27:18
Speaker 3: That was is not as fun as what I get
27:20
Speaker 3: to do right now. So all I listen, thank you.
27:23
Speaker 1: You know, I'm just here to help the Miami Dolphins.
27:29
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins. Look, I love the Dolphins. Nine
27:35
Speaker 1: and a half wins. The over is minus one ten
27:39
Speaker 1: plus three hundred to win the division. I think they're
27:42
Speaker 1: a sleeper for the Super Bowl of twenty two to one.
27:45
Speaker 1: Love the coach, love the talent at receiver. I think
27:51
Speaker 1: there's some questions about Tua, but that is a question
27:55
Speaker 1: more than like the Jets and Aaron Rodgers, whild we'll
27:57
Speaker 1: get to. He's an if factor with the ceiling that
28:00
Speaker 1: makes this team so much higher than I think just
28:03
Speaker 1: about any other team. They to me, are one of
28:06
Speaker 1: the more exciting teams. Simon, any best bets coming from
28:09
Speaker 1: the Dolphins right now?
28:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm fading the Dolphins, Chad. I know it feels
28:16
Speaker 2: like everyone in media is all over the Dolphins. They're
28:18
Speaker 2: the darling team of everyone. And it's just the year
28:22
Speaker 2: too for Mike McDaniels. I think that his offense snug
28:26
Speaker 2: up on a lot of people last year. I think
28:27
Speaker 2: a lot of defense will be prepared for it this year.
28:29
Speaker 2: And I know you're saying where it's really hard to
28:31
Speaker 2: prepare for the speed of Tyreek kill on waddle. I
28:35
Speaker 2: know a lot of people think that's what all their
28:36
Speaker 2: offense was, but a lot of it was run blocking.
28:38
Speaker 2: That's how they open up so many these lanes. And
28:40
Speaker 2: it really seemed like that forty nine Ers game was
28:43
Speaker 2: a turning point for this where a lot of defense
28:45
Speaker 2: figured out this offense where they realize that Tua loved
28:49
Speaker 2: the middle of the field, right, that was kind of
28:51
Speaker 2: his sweet spot where they would have a lot of crosses,
28:54
Speaker 2: a lot of stuff worked out where these guys would
28:56
Speaker 2: be in the middle of field. The forty nine ers
28:57
Speaker 2: took that away and a lot of teams copycatted that
29:00
Speaker 2: towards the end of the year. So to me, this
29:02
Speaker 2: this Miami team is highly talented. I mean, they brought
29:05
Speaker 2: in arguably one of the best defensive coordinators in all
29:08
Speaker 2: football to coach his defense. And yeah, the Rams injury
29:11
Speaker 2: is brutal. I know there's there's a lot of rumors
29:13
Speaker 2: that he'll be back by December after rehab, which is
29:16
Speaker 2: would be huge for this defense, and he's arguably one
29:18
Speaker 2: of the best corners on football. But to me, this
29:20
Speaker 2: Miami team, I just see them taking a step back
29:24
Speaker 2: like two. If you look at all the numbers from
29:26
Speaker 2: last year, too, was statistically the best quarterback on football.
29:32
Speaker 2: I know it sounds crazy to people. If you go
29:33
Speaker 2: look at the numbers, his accuracy was incredible. He made
29:38
Speaker 2: almost always the smart read right if there's three options
29:41
Speaker 2: for him to pass too, and whatever option he chose
29:44
Speaker 2: was usually the perfect option to choose, like it was
29:47
Speaker 2: just an incredible season for him and the only thing
29:49
Speaker 2: held them back was concussions. I mean, me and you,
29:52
Speaker 2: we had large bets on Miami last year to win
29:54
Speaker 2: this division, Like we thought they were gonna the team
29:56
Speaker 2: that was gonna sneak up on people. That's gone. They're
29:59
Speaker 2: no longer that offense. There no longer sneak up on anybody.
30:01
Speaker 2: I think teams will prepared for him. Then you look
30:03
Speaker 2: at their schedule, it's tough chat. So I've actually taken
30:06
Speaker 2: their under. I have them in nine wins, so I've
30:08
Speaker 2: taken the under of small. Nothing for them di visually
30:10
Speaker 2: nothing of them super Bowl. The only bet I really
30:13
Speaker 2: made this team is Tyra Hill once again to lead
30:15
Speaker 2: the league in receiving yards. Just because the man himself
30:18
Speaker 2: has set his goal is two thousand yards. How am
30:20
Speaker 2: I not going to bet on that? Like anytime a
30:22
Speaker 2: pro comes out and says that he know he's gonna
30:25
Speaker 2: be in it to his ear when he's not getting
30:26
Speaker 2: any his touches, and I like that kind of stuff
30:28
Speaker 2: for a wide receiver. So yeah, my only real positive
30:31
Speaker 2: bet for this team is Tyger Kill to lead the
30:34
Speaker 2: league in receiving yards.
30:36
Speaker 1: Warren quickly tell me, and then let's do the same
30:40
Speaker 1: thing for Miami. Where do you stack Buffalo in terms
30:44
Speaker 1: of strength of schedule for rest and prep as a
30:49
Speaker 1: positive or negatives? I forgot to to have you discuss
30:53
Speaker 1: that with the Bills and then talk about it for
30:56
Speaker 1: Miami as well.
30:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the the Buffalo Bills are one of the
31:01
Speaker 3: more difficult schedules in the NFL as it relates to
31:04
Speaker 3: rest and prep. There they are a dead neutral on
31:08
Speaker 3: like their net rest edge. But one thing that's going
31:11
Speaker 3: to separate both of these teams from the New York
31:14
Speaker 3: Jets as it relates to betting the division is I'll
31:17
Speaker 3: get to when we talk about the New York Jets
31:19
Speaker 3: because it's a fascinating angle with the Miami Dolphins. I
31:23
Speaker 3: don't disagree with Simon. They aren't sneaking up on anybody,
31:27
Speaker 3: but they do have one of the better rest edges
31:30
Speaker 3: in the NFL this year. They're at plus seven overall
31:33
Speaker 3: and that is like sixth best, seventh best in the NFL,
31:38
Speaker 3: I think tied for seventh best. So they have an
31:41
Speaker 3: advantage over the Buffalo Bills, as do the New York Jets,
31:45
Speaker 3: who have a decided advantage over the bus Buffalo Bills
31:48
Speaker 3: in that respect.
31:52
Speaker 1: Cordon Sean Crouner. The Miami Dolphins have the hardest schedule
31:59
Speaker 1: in the NFL. So, Warren, do you agree with Simon
32:04
Speaker 1: on the under Do you find any value in Miami
32:09
Speaker 1: to win the division? What's your betting take on this team?
32:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, this one was very difficult because I'm so split.
32:16
Speaker 3: You know, when the Dolphins had two, as you mentioned,
32:18
Speaker 3: they were eight and three, they were one and six
32:20
Speaker 3: in all the other games, you know, Tyreek Kill and
32:23
Speaker 3: Jayla Watta were only there and only available when Tua
32:27
Speaker 3: was there. I mean, they had fifteen touchdowns with Tua
32:30
Speaker 3: in the lineup, zero touchdowns in their seventy three targets
32:33
Speaker 3: when Tua was not there. Then, the other thing that
32:37
Speaker 3: really is a positive if you're thinking about them this
32:40
Speaker 3: upcoming season, is that not much went their way last
32:43
Speaker 3: season six and five and one score games, So we're
32:45
Speaker 3: talking basically about a coin flip. Fourth worst turnover margin
32:49
Speaker 3: at minus seven, the worst penalty margin in the NFL
32:52
Speaker 3: negative twenty seven, they ranked twenty fifth, and fumble luck
32:56
Speaker 3: in twenty third. In field goal luck, they had one
32:58
Speaker 3: of the worst injury lucks as well, and they played
33:01
Speaker 3: a difficult schedule. So from all those things, you're starting
33:04
Speaker 3: to think, Okay, maybe there's going to be a little
33:06
Speaker 3: bit of regression. Maybe we're going to get back on
33:08
Speaker 3: the right track with some of these and at least
33:11
Speaker 3: improved to league average, maybe a little bit better than
33:13
Speaker 3: league average. And then you talk about Vic Fangio coming
33:16
Speaker 3: on board, and the Dolphins last year were absolutely terrible defensively,
33:21
Speaker 3: and two key metrics that really impacted their defense a lot,
33:25
Speaker 3: and these are high leverage situations, red zone and third down,
33:29
Speaker 3: where they ranked twenty fourth in each of those metrics.
33:32
Speaker 3: So we're talking ninth worst in the NFL in both
33:36
Speaker 3: because they were so bad on third downs they allowed
33:40
Speaker 3: thirty two percent of opponents drives to reach the red zone.
33:43
Speaker 3: That was the sixth highest rate in the league. So
33:46
Speaker 3: I do think that Fangio. I'm obviously disappointed that Jayalen
33:48
Speaker 3: Ramsey's not going to be there, And honestly, I was
33:52
Speaker 3: waiting and biding my time for a moment that I
33:55
Speaker 3: thought maybe the Jets, sorry maybe the Dolphins would be
33:59
Speaker 3: a good It would be a good time to back
34:01
Speaker 3: these guys. But I think the Ramsey situation might have
34:05
Speaker 3: been the final nail in the coffin for me. I
34:08
Speaker 3: don't know that I believe the timeline of when he's
34:12
Speaker 3: going to be back number one and number two. I
34:16
Speaker 3: just don't have enough confidence that all of these things
34:20
Speaker 3: are going to go their way. The reason I wanted
34:22
Speaker 3: to try to back the Dolphins a little bit is
34:25
Speaker 3: for a reason I think Simon alluded to earlier, which
34:27
Speaker 3: is that the Jets are the darlings right now and
34:30
Speaker 3: there's no value on the Jets. Everybody wants to bet
34:32
Speaker 3: on the Jets, and so is there another team in
34:34
Speaker 3: this division that you could look at like you guys?
34:37
Speaker 3: Although I didn't do it for a division, I was
34:40
Speaker 3: on their win total over last year and it wasn't
34:42
Speaker 3: until the very last game of the season that I
34:45
Speaker 3: ended up getting it. I thought that thing was gone
34:48
Speaker 3: and toast, even though we should have gotten it with
34:50
Speaker 3: these because of the two injuries. I think he's going
34:53
Speaker 3: to be healthier this year. I think he is better,
34:56
Speaker 3: but I do have the concerns that Simon alluded to.
35:00
Speaker 3: The opposing coordinators now have some blueprints to work off of,
35:04
Speaker 3: and this is an interesting stat that I think is
35:08
Speaker 3: one thing that teams started to take away from them
35:10
Speaker 3: a little bit last year. That's a factor. This team
35:13
Speaker 3: was excellent down the middle of the field, both passing
35:17
Speaker 3: and running the football. When passing between the numbers two,
35:20
Speaker 3: it was the best an EPA per attempt. When passing
35:23
Speaker 3: outside the numbers, he ranked twenty second. When they ran
35:27
Speaker 3: between the tackles they ranked third best, but when they
35:30
Speaker 3: ran outside the tackles, they ranked twenty eighth out of
35:32
Speaker 3: thirty two teams. So this team was so much like
35:35
Speaker 3: down the middle of the field, passing, running, taking advantage
35:39
Speaker 3: of the lighter boxes two ice safeties, the linebacker linebackers
35:43
Speaker 3: being a little bit worse league wide, and I think
35:47
Speaker 3: now opponents can basically understand what we were trying, what
35:50
Speaker 3: they were trying to attack, and have some success. I
35:53
Speaker 3: am curious though, last point. You know, we know Kyle Shanahan,
35:58
Speaker 3: his system is very solid, but he's really only had
36:01
Speaker 3: success with Jimmy G. But he's had a lot of
36:04
Speaker 3: success with Jimmy G. I wonder with Mike McDaniel as
36:07
Speaker 3: long as he's got TUA there like this system could
36:10
Speaker 3: be successful and always keep them competitive. And I know
36:15
Speaker 3: they're ceiling their best case scenario could be, you know,
36:18
Speaker 3: to take a playoff trip and to do well, but
36:21
Speaker 3: I think the path is too difficult. I don't want
36:23
Speaker 3: to have any involvement at this point in the futures
36:26
Speaker 3: market with this team.
36:28
Speaker 1: When I said that I loved the Dolphins and was
36:32
Speaker 1: excited about their ceiling, I was doing what good hosts do,
36:39
Speaker 1: which is really just trying to set you guys up
36:42
Speaker 1: to create a little bit of tension and a counterpoint,
36:46
Speaker 1: and clearly I did that really, really well. I'm excited
36:50
Speaker 1: for two also because he's got that cool new sleeve
36:54
Speaker 1: of a tattoo, and I think it's impressive. He put
36:56
Speaker 1: it on his non throwing hand just so his arm
36:58
Speaker 1: doesn't get bogged down by the way.
37:00
Speaker 2: There you go.
37:03
Speaker 3: I want to see if the camera that they stuck
37:05
Speaker 3: on all of his practice footage is doing anything that
37:09
Speaker 3: is helping Mike McDaniel get them even better. I like
37:12
Speaker 3: the Dolphins, like I was already on them last year.
37:15
Speaker 3: I don't see enough value I'm rooting for them. I
37:18
Speaker 3: think that this is a fun team to watch when
37:20
Speaker 3: they're hitting, and I hope the touist stays healthy because
37:23
Speaker 3: he makes the NFL better. Because this offense is more exciting,
37:26
Speaker 3: so but I just don't see enough value to want
37:29
Speaker 3: to jump on them in the futures market to play
37:31
Speaker 3: on them.
37:32
Speaker 1: They are on the road this year against the Chiefs,
37:36
Speaker 1: the Eagles, the Ravens, and the Chargers, and they also
37:40
Speaker 1: have home games against the Cowboys and the Giants, which is,
37:45
Speaker 1: you know, one of the reasons. They will also obviously
37:49
Speaker 1: have to play the Bills, and they will also have
37:52
Speaker 1: to play the Jets, and they will also have to
37:54
Speaker 1: play the Patriots. Simon, It's not going to be an
37:58
Speaker 1: easy road. I can see why you're anti Dolphins right now.
38:02
Speaker 1: Now I'm coming around and seeing it. I was blinded
38:04
Speaker 1: by two was brilliance and Mike McDaniel's charm. But now
38:09
Speaker 1: now I'm seeing it.
38:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, last last year was I mean, the reason we
38:13
Speaker 2: love them. If Tua would have stayed healthy, I do
38:14
Speaker 2: think they would have won this division. Last year. It
38:16
Speaker 2: was like all set up where we all we knew
38:19
Speaker 2: mac jone is gonna be down here, and we knew,
38:21
Speaker 2: we knew Jet. We were all over the Jets just
38:23
Speaker 2: being shit with Zach Wilson. So we don't have those,
38:26
Speaker 2: we don't have that for Tuday this year, Like the
38:28
Speaker 2: Jets will be better the Patriots when we're gonna get them,
38:30
Speaker 2: they're going to be better. So it's one of those
38:32
Speaker 2: where I know people are like, well, Tua did the
38:35
Speaker 2: jiu jitsu, now he knows how'll fall. Their own line
38:38
Speaker 2: still has major issues, and I am literally worried for
38:40
Speaker 2: this man's health whenever they do play the Jets. Like,
38:42
Speaker 2: the Jets have eight guys up front that can kill Tua.
38:45
Speaker 2: So to me, that's gonna be the big water mark.
38:47
Speaker 2: Well we know, okay, did jiu jitsu actually worked for
38:51
Speaker 2: Tua went He's gonna be getting hit. I mean just
38:53
Speaker 2: I'm just guessing here, but he's probably gonna be touched
38:55
Speaker 2: ten to fifteen times anytime he drops back against this
38:58
Speaker 2: Jets D line.
39:00
Speaker 3: And you were right on Simon, just one last point chat.
39:03
Speaker 3: You know, when they went out to San Francisco and
39:05
Speaker 3: played the forty nine Ers and some of the defensive
39:07
Speaker 3: adjustments that then the Charters the very next week copycatted.
39:10
Speaker 3: Did they put up only seventeen points in both of
39:12
Speaker 3: those games. Will know right off the bat if Mike
39:15
Speaker 3: McDaniel has a counter move to that, because they play
39:18
Speaker 3: the Charters week one and the Chargers in Brandon Staley
39:21
Speaker 3: are going to try to implement some of those same
39:23
Speaker 3: things and take away the middle of the field and
39:25
Speaker 3: force two to throw the ball outside the numbers. And
39:27
Speaker 3: so we'll know pretty quickly if there is a counterpoint
39:30
Speaker 3: for them or if it's going to be a long season.
39:32
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40:32
Speaker 1: All right, guys, New York Jets. That is the elephant
40:37
Speaker 1: in the room when it comes to the AFC East
40:40
Speaker 1: Nine and a half wins is the total minus one
40:42
Speaker 1: twenty five is the price to pay if you want
40:45
Speaker 1: to bet the over plus two forty to win the division.
40:49
Speaker 1: Start spreading the new as I said, fourteen to one
40:55
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl at bet three six five,
40:57
Speaker 1: just outside that twelve to one three threshold where nine
41:01
Speaker 1: of the past ten Super Bowl champs will have been
41:04
Speaker 1: twelve to one or lower. Who knows they may get
41:07
Speaker 1: there before the season starts, Simon, Simon, the Jets have
41:11
Speaker 1: the thirdest hardest schedule according to Sean Curoner. They get
41:16
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, the Eagles, and Chargers at home. Their toughest
41:20
Speaker 1: non divisional road game will be at the Cowboys. I
41:23
Speaker 1: want to hear what Warren has to say about their
41:25
Speaker 1: rest and their prep advantages or disadvantages. But Simon, first
41:29
Speaker 1: set me up. We know we love this d line,
41:33
Speaker 1: but are we buying?
41:35
Speaker 2: Yeah? Just an incredible defense. I mean, everyone knows that.
41:38
Speaker 2: Anyone that watched them last year knows how good this
41:40
Speaker 2: defense is, and they brought in the missing piece it's
41:43
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers. Like, to me, that's a huge deal to
41:46
Speaker 2: a fan base that they've never had a good quarterback,
41:50
Speaker 2: even when you go back all the way to when
41:52
Speaker 2: they won their Super Bowl, statistically, they never They've never
41:56
Speaker 2: had a quarterback anywhere close to Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers
41:59
Speaker 2: last season his worst season, you could say, statistically would
42:03
Speaker 2: be an all time season for a Jets quarterback. That's
42:05
Speaker 2: how bad their quarterback play has been their franchise history.
42:08
Speaker 2: So the hype I get. I get why the fans
42:11
Speaker 2: should be excited. It's an exciting thing. If you don't
42:14
Speaker 2: know much about football and you're just a Jets fan,
42:16
Speaker 2: you should be really excited. But anybody would tell you
42:20
Speaker 2: that's a smart better that looks at these kind of numbers.
42:24
Speaker 2: They have major issues across the board. It all starts
42:26
Speaker 2: up front. Their offensive line is terrible. So you have
42:29
Speaker 2: a bad offensive line with an age quarterback huge red Flack.
42:33
Speaker 2: And I love that he gave him the money. It
42:35
Speaker 2: was a little too late, right, They should have done
42:37
Speaker 2: that They should have worked out the deal around the draft,
42:40
Speaker 2: got him in camp, got that money, and went out
42:42
Speaker 2: and got him another offensive lineman that could help protect
42:44
Speaker 2: him because they didn't address their big issue. They have
42:47
Speaker 2: a bad offensive line. And you know, no one's going
42:52
Speaker 2: to be shocked, Chad, when we're through six weeks and
42:54
Speaker 2: they're two and four, when you just look at their
42:55
Speaker 2: schedule on paper, no one's going to be shocked if
42:58
Speaker 2: they're two and four. And that to me is when
43:00
Speaker 2: and if I want to take the Super Bowl futures,
43:02
Speaker 2: if I want to take in the wins division, that's
43:04
Speaker 2: when I'll come back in on this team. But as
43:05
Speaker 2: we sit here right now, no brainer. Bet I'll take
43:08
Speaker 2: the under and I will stay far hell away from
43:11
Speaker 2: them super Bowl future. It's just who the hell are
43:13
Speaker 2: they to be higher of than the Ravens. They have
43:15
Speaker 2: better odds right now than the Ravens to go to
43:16
Speaker 2: the super Bowl. That's asinin in what world should they
43:20
Speaker 2: be better odds in the Ravens. The Ravens are more
43:22
Speaker 2: talented than they are across the board. So no, to me,
43:25
Speaker 2: this is a team that the public will just love.
43:28
Speaker 2: We knew the public would love them coming in just
43:30
Speaker 2: because there's so many Jets fans that are just desperate
43:32
Speaker 2: for a winner, and then you throw in their own
43:34
Speaker 2: hard knocks that eats away at the value right there.
43:37
Speaker 2: So to me, this will be the most public team
43:39
Speaker 2: head into the season. I've talked to multiple bookmakers and Jersey.
43:43
Speaker 2: I talked to multiple bookmakers in Vegas when I was there.
43:46
Speaker 2: Jets money. They keep getting Jets money, and that's what
43:48
Speaker 2: they keep talking about. And what do you always say, chat,
43:51
Speaker 2: that's the dream for Vegas, Like they love when the
43:54
Speaker 2: public pounds on these teams that are unproven. So to me,
43:57
Speaker 2: the Jets, I'll get in them later in the season
43:59
Speaker 2: and next year. I love them next year as well.
44:01
Speaker 2: Like to look ahead, I think they'll address the offensive
44:03
Speaker 2: line this offseason and then next year will be when
44:06
Speaker 2: I'm on this Jets team for the upcoming season. But
44:09
Speaker 2: this year, I can't get enough of fade them. So
44:11
Speaker 2: I am starting on their under right now. I got
44:13
Speaker 2: them at eight point five wins for this season. That's
44:16
Speaker 2: a full game under the nine and a half. I
44:18
Speaker 2: love the value on the team taking they're under.
44:20
Speaker 1: First of all, when you started talking, you sounded enthusiastic
44:25
Speaker 1: about the Jets, And in my head, I'm like, I'm like,
44:29
Speaker 1: what the fuck is going on? Because we have talked
44:33
Speaker 1: about fade the Jets, they since they signed Annie Rodgers
44:40
Speaker 1: and the hype train started and they became this team
44:43
Speaker 1: that was taking all this money. We love fading the Jets.
44:46
Speaker 1: To your point, so you're like, freak me out a
44:48
Speaker 1: little bit there for a second. I'm like, am I
44:50
Speaker 1: in Wonderland? What is going on?
44:52
Speaker 2: Saying Jets? Saying she'll be excited? That was my whole
44:54
Speaker 2: point at the very beginning.
44:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, well you kind of freaked me out for a minute.
44:57
Speaker 1: So the first six games of the year, to your
44:59
Speaker 1: point about they could potentially be two and four. They
45:02
Speaker 1: host the Bills, they're at the Cowboys, they host the Patriots,
45:06
Speaker 1: they host the Chiefs, they're at the Broncos, they host
45:09
Speaker 1: the Eagles. Those are like, that is brutal, brutal. Three
45:15
Speaker 1: of those teams are in that lower than twelve to
45:18
Speaker 1: one super Bowl threshold with the Eagles, the Chiefs, and
45:21
Speaker 1: the Bills. Okay, and the Patriots are going to be
45:24
Speaker 1: much much better. We're going to get to that so
45:27
Speaker 1: great sign.
45:28
Speaker 2: That Cowboys d line versus this offensive line. It's just
45:31
Speaker 2: bad matchups for this team.
45:33
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, who is sort of aggregating defense offensive line
45:37
Speaker 1: rankings from PFF in a variety of other places, has
45:41
Speaker 1: the Jets is the number twenty third offensive line in
45:45
Speaker 1: the NFL. Warren, are you are you fading the Jets
45:50
Speaker 1: as strongly as Simon and I are? Well?
45:55
Speaker 3: The time that I would want to fade the Jets
45:57
Speaker 3: is so Aaron Rodgers is going to start this next game.
46:01
Speaker 3: We're going to see some more hard knocks once that
46:04
Speaker 3: series is over. That's when I think everybody that money's
46:07
Speaker 3: gonna as Simon said, is continuing to flow. It's going
46:10
Speaker 3: to continue after Aaron Rodgers game. In the preseason. He
46:13
Speaker 3: hasn't played yet. We've just seen the Zach Wilson Show,
46:16
Speaker 3: which has been you know, Zach Wilson esque. But we're
46:19
Speaker 3: going to see Aaron Rodgers soon and then we're going
46:21
Speaker 3: to see this market continue to rise. I would be
46:25
Speaker 3: looking if you're looking to fade this team. I think
46:26
Speaker 3: Simon's onto something. The time that I would do it
46:29
Speaker 3: is right before the start of the season, when that
46:33
Speaker 3: value is at its peak. And also potentially bet on
46:36
Speaker 3: the Buffalo Bills in Week one and then you can
46:39
Speaker 3: come back and buy the New York Jets after those
46:43
Speaker 3: first six games, I show that, in addition to them
46:46
Speaker 3: having a difficult, tough offensive line, like their offensive line
46:50
Speaker 3: is one of their weak spots, they play the number
46:52
Speaker 3: one toughest schedule those first six weeks in opponent pass rush,
46:57
Speaker 3: and I mean I'm circling that Week two game against
47:00
Speaker 3: the Dallas Cowboys, like Simon mentioned, as a complete mismatch
47:03
Speaker 3: in pass rush versus offensive line. I'll talk about rest
47:07
Speaker 3: in a second, because I know you want to hit that,
47:09
Speaker 3: but I do want to make sure that I include
47:11
Speaker 3: the fact that Aaron Rodgers was a very different quarterback
47:16
Speaker 3: last year. I don't know if this was age, lack
47:20
Speaker 3: of comfort with his receiving corps, what have you, then
47:23
Speaker 3: he was in prior years because thirty five percent of
47:26
Speaker 3: his attempts came out or behind the line of scrimmage.
47:29
Speaker 3: In terms of depth of target, that was the highest
47:32
Speaker 3: of any quarterback in the NFL. He was not throwing
47:34
Speaker 3: the ball down the field nearly as much. It was
47:37
Speaker 3: all this, get the ball out of my hands quickly.
47:39
Speaker 3: I think it was into self preservation mode at points
47:41
Speaker 3: in time where he did not want to take those hits.
47:44
Speaker 3: He wanted to get the ball out quickly. It was
47:46
Speaker 3: the highest rate in his career, as the highest of
47:48
Speaker 3: any quarterback in the NFL last year. So I'm interested
47:51
Speaker 3: to see how this factors into this upcoming season. Potentially
47:56
Speaker 3: behind it an offensive line that's struggling, because if you
47:58
Speaker 3: look at Zach Wilson, Zach Wilson was actually very good
48:02
Speaker 3: when he was getting rid of the ball quickly. I
48:04
Speaker 3: was surprised to see wrote about in the book number
48:06
Speaker 3: nine inefficiency went throwing the ball in less than two
48:09
Speaker 3: and a half seconds last year, But he had the
48:12
Speaker 3: NFL's third highest rate of attempts that came when he
48:15
Speaker 3: held onto the ball for four plus seconds, and the
48:17
Speaker 3: NFL's highest rate of attempts that came when he held
48:20
Speaker 3: under the ball for five plus seconds. All Zack Wilson's
48:22
Speaker 3: game is you saw it on that one clip that
48:24
Speaker 3: was tweeted out like a couple of days ago. He
48:27
Speaker 3: just loves standing there servying the field, running around and
48:31
Speaker 3: like a chicken with his head cut off, and then
48:33
Speaker 3: just trying to make something happen crazy at the last
48:35
Speaker 3: second of the play. Sometimes it works. Most of the time,
48:38
Speaker 3: it doesn't and that's what he was doing. Aaron Rodgers
48:40
Speaker 3: isn't going to do that. He's going to get rid
48:42
Speaker 3: of the ball much quicker. But the question is he's
48:44
Speaker 3: going to be looking for those dump offfs just to
48:46
Speaker 3: be in preservation mode or is he actually going to
48:48
Speaker 3: push the ball down the field something he wasn't doing
48:50
Speaker 3: last year.
48:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, this team. I cannot wait to fade this team. Warren.
48:57
Speaker 1: Where's your strength of schedule with regards to prep and rest? Yeah.
49:02
Speaker 3: Like I've talked about this on Twitter and some of
49:04
Speaker 3: the Jets fans don't like me, but it's just a fact.
49:06
Speaker 3: It's just data. I can't really like change it. But
49:09
Speaker 3: the NFL, when they came out with their schedule, it's
49:12
Speaker 3: clear they want this team in the playoffs. They want
49:14
Speaker 3: this team to be good enough to be hosting playoff games.
49:17
Speaker 3: And I say that because of all the edges that
49:19
Speaker 3: they've baked in. Their schedule is tough of opponents. Their
49:23
Speaker 3: schedule is the easiest in franchise history in terms of
49:26
Speaker 3: rest advantage that they have over their opponents. It's number
49:29
Speaker 3: one in the NFL this year. It's the best in
49:31
Speaker 3: New York Jets franchise history. And the other thing as
49:34
Speaker 3: it relates to, you know, how do you punch a
49:36
Speaker 3: ticket the easiest way possible. You guys both know this.
49:39
Speaker 3: It's winning your division. And the NFL schedule makers gave
49:43
Speaker 3: the Jets this decided advantage when rest is of its
49:47
Speaker 3: utmost importance. So that's late in the season. The Jets
49:51
Speaker 3: play four divisional games late in the season, and they
49:54
Speaker 3: have a rest advantage in all four of those games.
49:58
Speaker 3: Let's go over Week eleven, they get to play the
50:00
Speaker 3: Bills after the Bills play Monday Night Football. The Bills
50:03
Speaker 3: are on a day last rest, short week. Week fifteen,
50:05
Speaker 3: they take on the Dolphins. The Dolphins play Monday Night Football,
50:08
Speaker 3: short week for them. Week eighteen they take on the Patriots.
50:12
Speaker 3: The Jets play Thursday night. They have extra rest to
50:15
Speaker 3: play the New England Patriots. And then this other interesting quirk,
50:19
Speaker 3: and that is that the NFL scheduled their first Black
50:21
Speaker 3: Friday game ever. And lo and behold, who's going to
50:24
Speaker 3: be on that Black Friday game? Of course, it's the
50:26
Speaker 3: New York Jets hosting at home, which means the team
50:29
Speaker 3: that they're playing has to play on a short week
50:31
Speaker 3: and travel on the road. And who's that going to
50:33
Speaker 3: be the Miami Dolphins. So the Dolphins twice plus a
50:36
Speaker 3: game against the Bills plus a game against the Patriots
50:39
Speaker 3: from Week eleven onward. The Jets have decided rest advantages
50:43
Speaker 3: down the stretch, which is bothersome if you're looking to,
50:47
Speaker 3: you know, fade this team in the division is just
50:50
Speaker 3: something to be aware of late in the year. But
50:53
Speaker 3: there's no doubt about it. They have such a great
50:57
Speaker 3: rest schedule, but such a difficult schedule of opponent. It's
51:00
Speaker 3: going to be interesting to see those two juxtaposed against
51:02
Speaker 3: each other.
51:03
Speaker 1: Sammy, you know what I love about that. I feel
51:07
Speaker 1: like you and I are at the opposite end of
51:09
Speaker 1: the spectrum when it comes to NFL conspiracies, whereas I
51:13
Speaker 1: am anti conspiracy and think everything is a coincidence and
51:16
Speaker 1: it's all left up to what's happening on the field,
51:19
Speaker 1: And I think you are all in on NFL league offices,
51:23
Speaker 1: pulling the strings on every single detail. And so what
51:26
Speaker 1: Warren did there, which was very clever, he said people
51:28
Speaker 1: on Twitter are coming after him because he's just stating
51:31
Speaker 1: the facts. But the facts are leading to a very
51:34
Speaker 1: specific conclusion that may or may not be factual. Are
51:39
Speaker 1: you buying what Warren is selling about the NFL creating
51:44
Speaker 1: an easier path via arrest and scheduling for the Jets.
51:49
Speaker 1: I think you're buying that particular conspiracy theory.
51:53
Speaker 2: Why would a billion dollar business want their New York
51:55
Speaker 2: offices to have a good year. It doesn't make sense. Now, Yeah,
51:58
Speaker 2: of course I believe all that stuff. I'm a very, very,
52:02
Speaker 2: very biased for the Northeast.
52:03
Speaker 1: Chad.
52:03
Speaker 2: You know this living in Northeast. I just think the
52:05
Speaker 2: NFL catereds towards the Northeast in a lot of different ways.
52:09
Speaker 1: I love that we're all going to fade the New
52:11
Speaker 1: York Jets at under nine and a half at Simon,
52:13
Speaker 1: your enthusiasm made it sound like it might be one
52:15
Speaker 1: of your favorite bets. But I'm fairly certain we're getting
52:17
Speaker 1: to your favorite bets. The New England Patriots seven and
52:22
Speaker 1: a half wins the over, the over plus one twenty
52:28
Speaker 1: plus eight hundred to win the division, fifty to one
52:31
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. Of the teams in this division,
52:34
Speaker 1: the Patriots have, for lack of a better term, the
52:38
Speaker 1: easiest of the schedules. Right. They have an easier schedule,
52:41
Speaker 1: according Sean Kerner, than the Bills than the Dolphins and
52:45
Speaker 1: the Jets. They also have the best offensive line in
52:49
Speaker 1: the division and probably have other than the Bills, you
52:54
Speaker 1: could argue comparable to the Jets as a defensive line. Simon,
53:00
Speaker 1: fire up, man, I know you got a lot to say.
53:02
Speaker 2: Here, Yeah, this is this is the team. We hated
53:05
Speaker 2: them last year. I think we made I think we
53:08
Speaker 2: made fun of them all off season for thinking that
53:10
Speaker 2: Matt Patricia could run some type of offensive scheme for them.
53:13
Speaker 2: So we just hated the juju going to last season.
53:16
Speaker 2: And you know, they have arguably the biggest fan base
53:20
Speaker 2: on football, right, I mean I could not stop hearing
53:22
Speaker 2: from Patriots fans. They're just Tom Brady left the number right,
53:25
Speaker 2: twenty years of greatness. They're gonna be a huge fan base.
53:28
Speaker 2: So their their fans were pissed off. But we just
53:31
Speaker 2: we looked at the day of the numbers and it
53:32
Speaker 2: just showed that they were gonna be down here. Now
53:34
Speaker 2: do we know it's gonna be a season from hell? No,
53:36
Speaker 2: But I think that's a great thing for Mac to
53:38
Speaker 2: build off of. Like Mac, he had such a horrible
53:41
Speaker 2: year last year that everyone's off of them, right, Everyone's
53:44
Speaker 2: completely off this kid. Who had a great rookie year,
53:47
Speaker 2: had a terrible year last year. Now I think we're
53:49
Speaker 2: getting great value in this team. Like that's why I
53:51
Speaker 2: love the Jets move for as a gambler, the Patriot
53:54
Speaker 2: should probably be plus six hundred plus five hundred win
53:57
Speaker 2: this division. We're getting plus eight hundred plus eight fifty
54:00
Speaker 2: lot of books. It's amazing, Like it's amazing to me
54:02
Speaker 2: the value of getting on this Patriots team to in
54:04
Speaker 2: this division like they are. They are what Belichick wants
54:08
Speaker 2: to be. They are a really good defense with an
54:11
Speaker 2: incredible running attack with a quarterback that just can't screw
54:14
Speaker 2: it up. Like this feels like the early patriotsiers with Brady,
54:17
Speaker 2: where it's like Mac, we're gonna need you to make
54:19
Speaker 2: big time throws every now and then, but it's not
54:21
Speaker 2: all gonna be on you like we have now. They
54:23
Speaker 2: brought in Zeke, They have a two headed monster there
54:25
Speaker 2: in the running back backfield, They have a great old line,
54:29
Speaker 2: and the defense every week last year got better. Every
54:32
Speaker 2: week that defense improved and a lot of those stars
54:35
Speaker 2: are back. So to me, this is all just shaping
54:37
Speaker 2: up to be a team I'll be high on. I
54:38
Speaker 2: know almost every professional I've talked to has a ticket
54:42
Speaker 2: on their over win total. Like everyone's sticking the over
54:44
Speaker 2: seven and a half. It's gonna be one of the
54:46
Speaker 2: most bet win totals just because the professional money is
54:48
Speaker 2: gonna come on it. I think the Patriots fan base,
54:51
Speaker 2: which again I just alluded to, is one of the
54:52
Speaker 2: biggest in the world, they're gonna be all over this
54:55
Speaker 2: over win total. But to me, the real values them divisionally,
54:58
Speaker 2: Like the way their schedule shapes up. I'll be able
55:00
Speaker 2: to take a position later in the season if they're
55:02
Speaker 2: just one or two back of the Bills, I'll be
55:05
Speaker 2: able to take a position on that later in the season.
55:06
Speaker 2: Because at plus eight hundred, there's so much value on
55:09
Speaker 2: this team for the division super Bowl. I'm not doing it.
55:12
Speaker 2: I really I can't do it. I need Mac to
55:15
Speaker 2: get a playoff win before I really started backing him
55:17
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, right, his only ever Ploth experience was
55:20
Speaker 2: getting blown out up in Buffalo. Like that's that's all
55:23
Speaker 2: he has for Plough experience. I need to see more
55:25
Speaker 2: from him before I put Super Bowl future bets on
55:27
Speaker 2: them at fifty to one. But we're sitting here at
55:30
Speaker 2: eight to one for them to win this division on
55:31
Speaker 2: bet three six five. I love that number, Chat, So
55:34
Speaker 2: it's definitely gonna be a team just like the Rams.
55:37
Speaker 2: Everyone's left for dead, and I'm gonna be super high
55:39
Speaker 2: on them divisionally, win total wise, I just I love
55:42
Speaker 2: everything this team is where it's just that it's that
55:45
Speaker 2: old school early two thousands, late nineties kind of built team,
55:48
Speaker 2: great defense, with a really strong running game, with a
55:51
Speaker 2: quarterback like Troy Akeman. Just don't screw it up, Mac,
55:54
Speaker 2: That's all they're asking you to do. Just do not screw
55:56
Speaker 2: up what this team's trying to do. So to me,
55:58
Speaker 2: it's all there for a bounce back season from this
56:00
Speaker 2: Patriots team.
56:03
Speaker 1: Warren, I'm gonna challenge you to give me an AFC
56:08
Speaker 1: East best bet, favorite bet with the same kind of
56:12
Speaker 1: passion and conviction that Simon just gave. If it's not
56:16
Speaker 1: on the Patriots, it'll be on someone else. But first
56:19
Speaker 1: give me your Patriots. Take are your best bets from
56:22
Speaker 1: any of these Patriots wins. Patriots to win the division,
56:27
Speaker 1: Patriots to win the Super Bowl.
56:31
Speaker 3: No, no they're not, but I don't I don't necessarily
56:34
Speaker 3: describe me. So i'mon sort of trying to convince me
56:36
Speaker 3: a little bit almost to me, what I value, what
56:41
Speaker 3: I value so much is uh efficiency in football and
56:46
Speaker 3: coaching and play calling and decision making and game planning.
56:48
Speaker 3: It's something that I that I love focusing in on
56:52
Speaker 3: and and attacking it and talking to different guys in
56:55
Speaker 3: the league and out of the league about it. And
56:58
Speaker 3: it just felt last year like Matt Patricia was objectively
57:03
Speaker 3: trying to hold this team back. No idea why. Maybe
57:06
Speaker 3: he just didn't know any better. But there were three
57:09
Speaker 3: key areas that I just could not that were so confounding.
57:12
Speaker 3: I could not help understand how any rational person would
57:16
Speaker 3: do this to their own team if they're trying to
57:17
Speaker 3: win games. The first one is the usage of play action.
57:21
Speaker 3: When this team used play action, they had the NFL's
57:25
Speaker 3: highest improvement using play action versus not using play action,
57:28
Speaker 3: and yet they used it at the third lowest rate
57:30
Speaker 3: in the NFL. This is concerning a little bit this year.
57:34
Speaker 3: But because I'm wondering, does this team even look at
57:37
Speaker 3: this type of data or is it or is it
57:39
Speaker 3: because somebody should have been telling Matt Patricia that we
57:42
Speaker 3: need to use play action a little bit more, use
57:44
Speaker 3: it for mac. It's actually helping a ton it should
57:46
Speaker 3: have been an analytics group is informing him of this information.
57:50
Speaker 3: And I know that their old analytics guru kind of
57:53
Speaker 3: you know, has distanced himself a little bit from the team.
57:56
Speaker 3: But like this, this needs to occur this upcoming season.
57:59
Speaker 3: If Bill O'Brien is not capitalizing on certain things, there
58:02
Speaker 3: needs to be assistance there. But Bill O'Brien is definitely
58:05
Speaker 3: not going to make the same mistake. There's no way
58:07
Speaker 3: that they're going to use play action at the lowest
58:10
Speaker 3: at the rates that they were using last year. That
58:12
Speaker 3: was number one. Number two, the Patriots threw twenty nine
58:15
Speaker 3: percent of their passes behind the line of scrimmage, which
58:18
Speaker 3: was the sixth highest. This is on early downs first
58:20
Speaker 3: three quarters, which is what I try to look at
58:22
Speaker 3: when I'm understanding desire of a play caller. I strip
58:26
Speaker 3: out third down, which is reactionary. I strip out fourth quarter,
58:28
Speaker 3: reactionary early downs first three quarters one of the highest
58:31
Speaker 3: rates in the NFL throwing the wall behind the line
58:34
Speaker 3: of scrimmage, and the splits for mac Jones were night
58:37
Speaker 3: and day difference behind the line of scrimmage twenty five
58:39
Speaker 3: percent success beyond the line of scrimmage fifty one percent
58:42
Speaker 3: behind the line of scrimmage minus point two to three
58:44
Speaker 3: epaight per attempt beyond the line of scrimmage plus point
58:47
Speaker 3: one three And it wasn't even close. And yet why
58:50
Speaker 3: are they throwing the ball so frequently behind the line
58:52
Speaker 3: of scrimmage? And the third one, this is one of
58:55
Speaker 3: the things that I like to look at a lot,
58:58
Speaker 3: is are you, as an offense your philosophy to try
59:01
Speaker 3: to set yourselves up for third and manageable or is
59:03
Speaker 3: your philosophy to try to bypass third downs by skipping
59:07
Speaker 3: them entirely. Some teams end up having longer third downs,
59:11
Speaker 3: like the Miami Dolphins, because they're so focused on creating
59:14
Speaker 3: big plays that when they do get put into a
59:16
Speaker 3: third down, they have more yards to go, whereas other
59:19
Speaker 3: teams are trying to set themselves up for third and
59:21
Speaker 3: manageable by just having maybe lower upside but more efficient
59:25
Speaker 3: play calls on those first couple downs so that they
59:27
Speaker 3: can then get a third and manageable. The Patriots were
59:30
Speaker 3: twenty ninth in percentage of early downs that got a
59:33
Speaker 3: first down, so they weren't skipping third down, and they
59:35
Speaker 3: were thirtieth in distance to go on third down, which
59:38
Speaker 3: tells me this offense was completely rudderless. They had no
59:42
Speaker 3: game plan as to what we're trying to do here.
59:44
Speaker 3: Are we trying to set ourselves up or we're trying
59:46
Speaker 3: to bypass? I think night and day we're going to
59:49
Speaker 3: see differences across the board, and so that is something
59:52
Speaker 3: that you would want to buy in on if you're
59:55
Speaker 3: backing the New England Patriots.
59:57
Speaker 1: Here.
59:58
Speaker 3: My only concern with what Simon said. I don't doubt
1:00:00
Speaker 3: that there's some talent there defensively, but my only concern
1:00:04
Speaker 3: is every year when we see Bill Belichick's team, they
1:00:08
Speaker 3: destroy and massacre the teams that have mediocre to poor offenses.
1:00:13
Speaker 3: But they've struggled lately with those really good offenses unlike
1:00:17
Speaker 3: what they were back in those early two thousands. And
1:00:20
Speaker 3: if they can't throttle it up defensively a little bit
1:00:23
Speaker 3: better against some of these great offenses because they played
1:00:25
Speaker 3: like I think the sixth most difficult schedule of opposing offenses,
1:00:29
Speaker 3: this defense isn't going to necessarily do enough. I also
1:00:32
Speaker 3: worry about, like the talent at the receiver position, the
1:00:37
Speaker 3: separation that they get definitely a concern for me there,
1:00:40
Speaker 3: But overall, I do think this is a super low
1:00:44
Speaker 3: win total. If I'm playing this team, that's probably the
1:00:47
Speaker 3: direction I'm looking is. I'm be looking at their win total.
1:00:50
Speaker 3: I don't know what their division wins are in terms
1:00:53
Speaker 3: of a prop but that's interesting if you're a little
1:00:56
Speaker 3: bit down on the Dolphins and you're a little bit
1:00:57
Speaker 3: down on the Jets, of just looking at what is
1:00:59
Speaker 3: New England in terms of division wins, because all these
1:01:02
Speaker 3: other three teams are sort of buy on in some capacity,
1:01:06
Speaker 3: not maybe not the Bills per se, but they're still
1:01:09
Speaker 3: like a very popular team, whereas the Jets the Patriots
1:01:11
Speaker 3: have been like written off for dead of course, so
1:01:14
Speaker 3: I wonder how many wins. Maybe it's one and a
1:01:15
Speaker 3: half for their division wins, but that could be interesting
1:01:19
Speaker 3: as well. But in general, i'd be looking at their
1:01:21
Speaker 3: win total. I think this team could improve tremendously thanks
1:01:25
Speaker 3: to a better offensive structure and game plan. I just
1:01:28
Speaker 3: hope that they're pulling the right levers throughout the course
1:01:31
Speaker 3: of the season to look at the data and understand
1:01:34
Speaker 3: what they need to change offensively before it's too late.
1:01:36
Speaker 3: There's no reason to like wait till a bye week
1:01:39
Speaker 3: or figure it out after the season's over. You need
1:01:42
Speaker 3: to be studying all this type of stuff every single
1:01:44
Speaker 3: week throughout the course of the season and getting it
1:01:46
Speaker 3: to the staff so they can adjust their play calling.
1:01:51
Speaker 1: I've already bet the Pats over seven and a half.
1:01:54
Speaker 1: I haven't bet the division yet, but I will. I
1:01:57
Speaker 1: know Simon is in love with the eight to one
1:02:01
Speaker 1: to win the division. He has gone on the record
1:02:05
Speaker 1: with his love of the pass over seven and a half. Warren,
1:02:10
Speaker 1: you were best bet from the AFC East. Could be
1:02:15
Speaker 1: anything we talked about or something different.
1:02:18
Speaker 3: Is yeah, I've got it. So I've got like twenty
1:02:23
Speaker 3: eight different futures right now, player props, game lines, throughout
1:02:28
Speaker 3: the course of the season, win totals, et cetera. Ironically enough,
1:02:31
Speaker 3: I went back and looked through my list of twenty
1:02:32
Speaker 3: eight none yet I have not a single future on
1:02:36
Speaker 3: the AFC East. I wanted to fade the Bills, but
1:02:39
Speaker 3: there's no value there. Agree with Simon in that regard
1:02:42
Speaker 3: the future that I'm looking to take. I can't tell
1:02:45
Speaker 3: people to bet it now, but the future I'd be
1:02:47
Speaker 3: looking to take is I'd be looking to wait until
1:02:51
Speaker 3: we get right to the start of the season. Fade
1:02:54
Speaker 3: the Jets on their win total, potentially bet against them
1:02:58
Speaker 3: week one against the Buffalo bill like kind of package
1:03:01
Speaker 3: that up together, hit those two, and then come back
1:03:05
Speaker 3: and bet the over on their win total after they
1:03:08
Speaker 3: play the Philadelphia Eagles and potentially lose that game in
1:03:11
Speaker 3: Week six. So I'd be looking to fade the Jets
1:03:14
Speaker 3: on their win total, but I'd be looking to do
1:03:17
Speaker 3: that closer to the start of the season, once we've
1:03:19
Speaker 3: reached that crescendo of Aaron Rodgers going in there playing
1:03:23
Speaker 3: the preseason game and the hype of hard knocks continuing
1:03:28
Speaker 3: to carry us over the next couple of weeks.
1:03:31
Speaker 1: I don't mind that strategy, Simon, and I love playing
1:03:33
Speaker 1: a get to the breaking point or get into the
1:03:37
Speaker 1: season and start adjusting on your bets. I can't, I can't.
1:03:41
Speaker 1: I can't hate on that.
1:03:42
Speaker 3: Well, then think about this chat. If you we're talking
1:03:44
Speaker 3: about rest a lot, and I look at the first
1:03:46
Speaker 3: six weeks and that game against the Cowboys, they're at
1:03:49
Speaker 3: a rest disadvantage. They do not have a single rest
1:03:52
Speaker 3: advantage the first six weeks of the season. Immediately after that, though,
1:03:56
Speaker 3: they have rest advantages in like five of their remaining
1:03:59
Speaker 3: games from Week eight onward. They've got rest advantages in
1:04:02
Speaker 3: five of those games. We already talked about those four
1:04:05
Speaker 3: interesting rest edges that they have against the AFC East,
1:04:08
Speaker 3: plus the strength of schedule gets a little bit weaker,
1:04:10
Speaker 3: so down that stretches where you could buy them. And
1:04:13
Speaker 3: the other interesting thing down the stretch for a team
1:04:16
Speaker 3: like the Buffalo Bills, that's a team obviously they play
1:04:19
Speaker 3: up north, they'd like to host some of their games
1:04:21
Speaker 3: late in the year to have some of that inclement
1:04:23
Speaker 3: weather because Josh Allen's got a rocket arm and they
1:04:26
Speaker 3: can win some of these games. Four of the bills
1:04:28
Speaker 3: last six games are on the road, so they don't
1:04:30
Speaker 3: get that weather advantage at home in Buffalo. So you
1:04:34
Speaker 3: can look to back the Jets after their slow start
1:04:37
Speaker 3: when they've got all these rest advantages and play some
1:04:41
Speaker 3: easier opponents if you wish.
1:04:43
Speaker 1: You mean Simon, what he's saying is you can play
1:04:46
Speaker 1: the Jets once the conspiracy theory starts to yield some return.
1:04:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I love where you're talking about. We we
1:04:55
Speaker 2: love playing Ncason Bets. One of my favorite memories for
1:04:58
Speaker 2: us was that's season what was it two years ago now,
1:05:01
Speaker 2: where the Bengals there were ten to one to win
1:05:04
Speaker 2: the division, but they were only a game back of
1:05:06
Speaker 2: the Ravens. I guess who they're playing that week. They're
1:05:08
Speaker 2: playing the Ravens. So what do you mean, Chad? Do
1:05:10
Speaker 2: we gave all the ten to one and we gave
1:05:12
Speaker 2: out the Bengals. It's at plus six and a half
1:05:14
Speaker 2: over the Ravens. They end up beating the Ravens in
1:05:17
Speaker 2: that game and they're dropped all the way down from
1:05:18
Speaker 2: ten to one to three to one for them to
1:05:20
Speaker 2: win that division. So it's one of those where we're
1:05:23
Speaker 2: just playing the number, Like I really think that Patriots
1:05:25
Speaker 2: are gonna win this division. Fuck No, the Patriots have
1:05:27
Speaker 2: a lot of holes compared to the Bills and Miami.
1:05:30
Speaker 2: But the value is just there. That's what I'm trying
1:05:32
Speaker 2: to explain to people, Like eight to one, that's an
1:05:34
Speaker 2: incredible opportunity to hedge out come late December.
1:05:38
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