Latest / ACLED Audio / REPORT: Iran targets the global oil market. Gulf energy and the Strait of Hormuz are under fire.

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REPORT: Iran targets the global oil market. Gulf energy and the Strait of Hormuz are under fire. · ACLED Audio

• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Iran targets the global oil market.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: Gulf Energy and the Strait of Hormuz are under fire.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: The second week of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran opened with a dramatic escalation when Israel struck Iran's oil facilities on March 7 and pushed the confrontation into the global oil market.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders vowed retaliation against Gulf Energy assets, warning that a broader regional war could push oil prices to$200 per barrel.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: Acting on this warning, Tehran targeted Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, seeking to raise the costs of the war for the U.S.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: and its regional partners.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: Given that even limited attacks in the strait can heighten risk perception and disrupt one of the world's most critical energy corridors, a further escalation, particularly through the deployment of sea mines, could turn temporary disruption into a prolonged global energy shock.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: The surge in hostilities quickly undercut Iranian President Masood Pazeshkian's apology to Gulf states for initially attacking them and his pledge not to target them unless provoked.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: The recent attacks shifted squarely onto the infrastructure that produces energy and the maritime artery that moves it.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: From early in the conflict, Iran signaled that Gulf energy infrastructure was within scope.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: Iranian drone strikes hit Saudi Arabia's Ras-Tanura oil refinery, while attacks forced Qatar to suspend its liquefied natural gas production.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Since March 7, however, the campaign has intensified as energy infrastructure across the Gulf has increasingly come under fire.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: Daily drone swarms have targeted Saudi Aramco's Sheiba oil field, while refineries and fuel storage facilities in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman have also been struck.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: Refer to the map in the report for details.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: Yet the ultimate pressure point in Iran's arsenal is the maritime choke point of the Strait of Hormuz.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: The strait carries around 20% of global seaborne oil and nearly 80 million tons of LNG annually.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: Some 84% of those flows are destined for Asian markets such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: Any sustained disruption would therefore extend far beyond the Middle East, pulling major Asian economies directly into the crisis.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Tehran has long brandished this threat.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: During the June 2025 12-day war, it warned it could close the strait.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: This time, rhetoric swiftly gave way to action.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: ACLED records at least 25 Iranian attacks against shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz since February 28.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: Over 30% of these attacks occurred on March 1, the second day of the war.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: The early concentration of strikes appeared designed to signal that the closure of the choke point is not merely rhetorical.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: Following a brief lull on 8th and 9th of March, attacks resumed after renewed IRGC threats to block oil shipments on 10 March.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: See the graph in the report for details.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: Roughly 40% of these incidents have targeted oil tankers, but halting every vessel is unnecessary.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: As seen during the Red Sea crisis, heightened risk perception alone can constrict trade.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: Insurers withdraw coverage, war risk premiums spike, and shipowners reroute or delay sailings.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: Since March 2, daily transits have fallen to fewer than 10 vessels, nearly 90% below the 2026 daily average of 84 recorded through February 27.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: A military escort of commercial vessels may be a necessary political signal to reassert freedom of navigation and is currently being discussed by the European Union and the U.S.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yet escorts alone are unlikely to restore market confidence.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, countries not directly involved in the war, including China, India, and Turkey, may negotiate safe passage through the choke point, thereby increasing the risk of a prolonged war of attrition.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: Against this backdrop, the deployment of sea mines appears unlikely at this stage, as it would represent a last resort measure that could disrupt shipping lanes long after hostilities subside.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: This report was written by Luka Nevela, ACLED's senior analyst for Yemen and the Gulf.