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Oct 06 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr261006 The October 6, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report covers commodity market movements, federal policy developments, harvest progress, and agricultural weather. Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing analyzes a "Turnaround Tuesday" rally across corn, soybeans, wheat, and feeder cattle, driven by technical buying and positioning ahead of the USDA WASDE report. USDA crop progress data reveals corn and soybean harvest pacing behind five-year averages nationwide, led by significant weather-related delays in Iowa. Energy analyst Dave Chatterton reviews President Trump’s executive order deferring taxes and waiving penalties on highway use of red-dyed diesel, noting that while it offers short-term cash flow relief, it does not resolve broader diesel refining and supply constraints. The broadcast concludes with a global weather outlook predicting a much-needed dry window across the U.S. Corn Belt and mixed conditions in South America, followed by a demonstration of an AI-generated hyper-local ag weather forecast for Sangamon County, Illinois, tracking field conditions and bare soil temperatures for fall fertilizer applications. 01:24 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing 07:10 USDA Harvest Progress Update 09:03 President Trump's Diesel Fuel E.O. 19:06 Global Growing Regions Update 20:47 A.I. Delivers Hyper Local Forecast for Todd --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana, Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report for the sixth day of October 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm. She’s at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. We’ll get an update of crop progress and harvest across the nation from the United States Department of Agriculture. We’ll update the weather forecast for you. I’ll give you a hyper-local weather forecast, an example of one generated by artificial intelligence. And we’ll also turn our gaze today to Washington, D.C., to discuss the executive order on diesel fuel that President Trump signed last night right here on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: December corn for the day settled at $5.08, up 10 and 3/4. The March at $5.22 and 1/4, 10 and 3/4 higher. November beans at $13.03 a bushel, up 22 and 1/4. January at $13.19 and 1/4, 21 and 3/4 of a cent higher. December soft red winter wheat at $7.04 and 1/4, up 12. And the hard red finished 14 higher at $7.56 and 1/4. The live cattle futures up $4.12 and 1/2, and feeder cattle up $8.15. 01:24 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin, now joins us to take a look at a turnaround Tuesday. What a good day it was in the marketplace in Chicago for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Tell me about it, Naomi. Naomi Blohm: Yeah, it was a really exciting day. So on the overnight trade, December corn and November beans both tested lower technical support levels. Those levels held, and then throughout the day, the market was able to slowly climb higher, hit a few buy stops on the way up, and then would be able to hit some additional buy stops on the way up too as some moving averages were sought out, found, and then propelled the next leg higher. So with today’s close, December corn at $5.08, that was able to get us obviously back above $5, back above the uptrend line, and shortly above a little short-term resistance area near $5.05. And with the November beans, they were able to close back above $13 today, $13.03 at the settlement, up 22 and 1/4. And again, just being able to close above $13 was really exciting. So technical action today, but also pre-report estimates for Friday’s USDA WASDE report came out. Trade is really hoping that we’re going to see some yield reduction on corn, so I think we started to trade that today. And then for the soybean yield, not looking for too much change from the September report, but that focus is on corn. And seasonally, right now for corn and beans both, we’re in that early October window where oftentimes both will find a harvest low, so it felt like it was a combination of all of those aspects which propelled the market higher today. Todd Gleason: When you hear from farmers, and I know they’re busy, maybe some of them in Iowa still out of the field at this point, what are they asking you as it relates to this marketplace and how they manage the grain that has to grow across the scale to an elevator? Naomi Blohm: Yeah, so the questions are, is this the low? That was the question from today. The next question would be, potentially, trying to understand how high could prices go in December, January, February to offset storage costs. So would it pay for storage to store the corn? You know, how high can corn and beans both go? Looking at, should they sell the corn and re-own with some sort of call option strategy? So that’s been the basic questioning right now. And of course, to know how high prices would go, we won’t get our best USDA yield estimates until, of course, the January WASDE. But there’s a lot of concern that ultimately the crop in Brazil or maybe Argentina could be affected adversely with El Niño weather patterns, and the world needs Argentina and Brazil to have a perfect crop. If we don’t, that brings down the global carryout numbers and that would be supportive for prices. So it’s been some short-term outlook questions and then some longer-term outlook questions as we finish ’26 and head into 2027. Todd Gleason: Tell me about the WASDE report on Friday. You’ve given me some indication, but what are you thinking as it relates to those numbers? Naomi Blohm: So I feel like the USDA is going to give us a pretty neutral report for this go-around. I feel like they might lower that corn yield number just a little bit to acknowledge the situation out there, because truly the yields that we’re hearing from producers so far—and of course, it’s early—is it’s very mixed results out there for corn. Definitely not a record yield by any means. The question is how far off from the September WASDE number of 178.5 will this Friday’s October number be? So that’s kind of the biggest question here for right now, keeping an eye on that. Todd Gleason: How is demand holding up? What are you seeing in the weekly reports? Naomi Blohm: Yeah, so the demand in general, export demand feels like it’s kind of slowed down a little bit. So we’ll see if that is reflected on Friday’s WASDE. Ethanol demand, weekly ethanol numbers, I feel like they’ve been holding steady a little bit, so we’re going to see if USDA has any reflections on that on Friday. But we’ll also be wanting to watch the crush demand, especially as it pertains to soybeans, is there going to be larger demand there. And then we’ll want to keep an eye with the wheat market for global production, global exports, and trying to see where global demand would fit in in terms of wheat. With even though we know that the Black Sea region has a crop, they are definitely slow to get things exported, so we’re going to see if the USDA has any larger wheat export numbers for the United States on Friday’s report. Todd Gleason: And finally, turn your attention to livestock. Cattle up eight bucks today, feeder cattle that is. Why was that the case? Naomi Blohm: Yeah, so that was an exciting day. So it had really primarily been technical buying in my opinion. We did have higher boxed beef values though at midday. And so the market today started lower on support levels, they held, and throughout the day, we saw the feeder cattle market push through moving average after moving average, go all the way up to the 100-day moving average, and then make new highs for the short term into the close. And so there is that inverted upside-down head and shoulders formation, and we’re all trying to wonder, is there actually enough friendly news to justify that feeder market to go higher or not? And part of it may stem from the answer on Friday’s WASDE report in reaction to how the corn market trades from that. But we’re also keeping an eye on cash values this week and again on boxed beef values as that would show consumer demand. Todd Gleason: Thank you much, I appreciate it. Naomi Blohm: Thank you. Todd Gleason: That of course is Naomi Blohm. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. 07:10 USDA Harvest Progress Update Todd Gleason: Yesterday afternoon, the United States Department of Agriculture did release its weekly Crop Progress report. It showed nationwide harvest progress for corn and soybeans and sowing for wheat is trailing historical averages. According to the data, the U.S. corn harvest is 23% complete. That’s four points behind the five-year average of 27%. The national soybean harvest for the 18 reporting states sits at 25%, trailing the 33% average. Winter wheat planting reached 36%, 10 points behind the 46% average, and winter wheat emergence is at 16%, trailing the 20% average. Here are some of the state differences. Iowa is where things are really different. The corn harvest is advancing there at an unusually slow pace of 3%, severely trailing the five-year average of 20% during this week of the year. Now the soybean harvest is also behind at 7%. Its normal is 38% average. In Illinois, corn harvest at 27%, normally 30%. Soybean harvest reached 21%. That’s behind the 29% average. Nebraska corn harvest at just 15%. The five-year average is 24%. Soybean harvest there 17%, one-half of its normal 34% average pace. In Indiana, corn harvest 21%, behind the 23% average, and soybean harvest at 14%. It is falling well short and half of the normal 28% average as well. And finally, in the Dakotas, corn harvest is slightly ahead of schedule at 12% for North Dakota. The corn harvest in South Dakota at 11% is behind the 16% average. 09:03 President Trump’s Diesel Fuel E.O. Todd Gleason: Dave Chatterton is here now to take a look at the agricultural energies. A short notice for you actually, Dave, thank you for putting this extra one in as it’s related to this after the executive order was signed by President Trump related to red-dyed diesel and the ability for truckers and farmers both to use this to try to take away a portion of the federal tax. It’s a hiatus more than anything else, it appears to me, that pushes it off to January, but a lot yet to be figured out on this. What was your takeaway from reading that executive order? Dave Chatterton: Yeah, Todd, I think there’s probably more questions than answers. And certainly, you know, well at this point, whatever can be done should be done, and I think tax relief is probably one way to do that. Unfortunately, we’re not sure exactly the form that tax relief is going to take. We know that we can get a hiatus here for red-dyed diesel connected to agriculture for transport and for off-farm use. But how the tax liability on those gallons will be handled later is still up in the air. The IRS and the Secretary have a five-day window here to try and get between the IRS, the Department of Energy, and Treasury to figure out how those taxes are going to be, whether they’re just going to be deferred and due at a later date, or whether they’re actually going to be, you know, wiped away or partially wiped away. So we’ve attacked it from the federal side, they’ve encouraged the states to do the same, but there’s no requirement there. So I think we’re kind of in a middle ground here, Todd, where we’re trying to figure out and waiting for more information from the administration. Todd Gleason: The other bottom line may be that this does not add to total diesel supply. What impact might that have? Dave Chatterton: Yeah, and I mean that’s the biggest takeaway, Todd. It may create a situation upfront where we have a little bit of cash flow relief around those taxes. The federal tax on diesel fuel is 24.3 cents, so let’s say 10,000 gallons, it’s maybe $2,400, but it doesn’t increase the overall supply and it probably doesn’t affect the wholesale price of diesel fuel. Um, you know, the refining capacity and the issues that we have are there. I think there are also a lot of questions about the distribution system for dyed or red diesel versus conventional diesel, and are we going to see that red-dyed, you know, storage and handling capacity, particularly in the rural areas, overwhelmed as, you know, non-traditional demand comes in? So, again, you know, we’re—it’s a token step in the right direction, but you know, taxes are really not the problem, supply is the problem, and that’s the problem that we really need to solve. Todd Gleason: The other question I have is, do most producers in what you know, do they actually buy and store ahead of time usually for the harvest season, or are they buying hand-to-mouth? Dave Chatterton: Well, it’s a little bit of both. I mean, the way that the red-dyed diesel fuel is essentially all the same, and the dye is added after the refining and distribution process, it’s usually added at the terminal level. So there is some flexibility there. And, you know, it’s a question of, you know, what’s in the tank now, and can a tank that has not traditionally stored red diesel be converted and have no long-term effects when the tax ban is no longer in place, um, you know, and different things like that. So this is a new one for the industry. Again, it’s something to figure out. Um, you know, I’ll give the administration credit in the sense that they’re trying to pull whatever levers they can to help the producer, help the farmer, help the diesel fuel price come down. I just think we’ve created a little bit of confusion here in the initial phases of how it’s going to be rolled out and what it’s actually going to mean. Todd Gleason: Are there enough physical drivers of diesel fuel, those tanker drivers around, to get it to the farm and get it to the individual gas stations around the country? Dave Chatterton: There was an issue too about, um, whether there may be a run on the red-dyed diesel fuel. But what I’ve been reading, they actually tax the fuel when it comes off the rack for the semis to fill up. That’s where the tax mechanism shows up, and when they add the dye here. So I don’t know if that’s going to be a problem of having a shortage of red-dyed diesel fuel for that very reason, so I’m not really worried about that part. To me, it’s a matter of combining the clear and red diesel fuel together. Todd Gleason: Thank you, Dave. Dave Chatterton is with Strategic Farm Marketing and joins us regularly on our program to discuss agricultural energies and stepped in short notice today to take up the executive order that President Trump signed last night related to diesel fuel and over-the-road taxes. 19:06 Global Growing Regions Update Todd Gleason: Let’s check the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Don Day is out of the office today. You know some excessive rain has pushed corn and soybean harvest behind average across the whole of the United States with Iowa being the worst affected area. However, the weather pattern is shifting to a drier trend. The 6-to–10 day and 8-to–14 day forecasts indicate much more favorable harvest conditions bringing warm and dry weather to the region. The extended dry window across the whole of the Corn Belt, particularly those saturated fields, will allow them to drain and fieldwork to resume. The eastern Corn Belt is still generally clear of moisture concerns, though the far western Corn Belt and Central Plains remain areas to monitor for residual wetness. Taking a look at some of the other areas around the planet, in Brazil, the Center-West region is forecasted to be mostly dry with temperatures remaining near to above normal. Some isolated scattered showers are expected later in the week and into the 6-to–10 day outlook. Overall, current moisture coverage is favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting across Mato Grosso. Other parts of Brazil include droughty conditions which have worsened in the north-central part of that nation. Conversely, southern Brazil is expecting wetter conditions with some areas currently a bit too wet for optimal fieldwork. Paraguay’s 15-day outlook indicates wetter-than-normal conditions there as well. In Argentina, soil conditions have recently been mixed, yielding normal to wetter-than-normal observations. However, the near-term forecast projects eastern Argentina to be drier than normal. 20:47 A.I. Delivers Hyper Local Forecast for Todd Todd Gleason: Now here’s something a little different. The National Association of Farm Broadcasting asked if I would be able to develop an AI model or to use AI actually to develop a hyper-local weather forecast that I could show to other broadcasters across the nation that they might be able to use in their own areas. I set about doing that last Friday with Gemini and gave it some directions for Sangamon County, that’s in the middle of Illinois, the capital is in Springfield, and here’s what it gives to me each and every morning at 6 a.m. now. announce: Currently in Sangamon County, conditions are crisp and clear at 42 degrees with a light northwest wind at 6 miles an hour. Morning humidity is sitting at 90%, creating a likelihood of heavy dew on the standing crop to start the day. For today’s field operations, expect another highly productive window for harvest. Skies will remain sunny with an afternoon high near 70 degrees. By 11 a.m. this morning, humidity is forecast to drop sharply to about 45%. The rapid dry down means the morning dew will burn off by mid-morning, clearing the way for combines to run efficiently through the rest of the day. Winds will remain manageable blowing from the northwest at 8 to 12 miles an hour. Now the current 4-inch bare soil temperatures at the Springfield monitoring station is 61 degrees, continuing a slow cooling trend from the weekend. Looking at the one-month forecast, soil temperatures will steadily step down as we move deeper into October. However, readings are expected to remain well above the critical 50-degree mark, and will not consistently stay below 50 degrees over the next 30 days. Climatology still points toward early to mid-November for that sustained drop. Therefore, it remains strongly recommended to continue delaying fall anhydrous ammonia applications to mitigate nitrification and leaching risks. Tonight, skies will remain clear with temperatures dipping down to a low of 40 degrees, setting up a likely repeat of heavy morning dew for tomorrow’s early operations. Todd Gleason: Gemini delivers that ag weather forecast to me now each and every morning at 6 a.m. You’ve been listening to the Closing Market Report on this Tuesday afternoon. Be safe in the field. I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.