Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Fertilizer Update

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Fertilizer Update · AG Bull

• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Dadgum, that was a close corn call lower on this report day across the board for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: I'll just throw out a few of the key numbers from the reports today, and then I'm gonna walk you through the latest fuels and fertilizer prices and how they compare to year ago.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: From behind the big blue bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson for Ag Squawk in the Afternoon.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: Glad to have you along with us, September 30 report day.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yao.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna go through some of it.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_01: Subscribers, Tommy has has gone through some of the minutia, what needs to be done about it, where your heads should be at.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: You want specifics, you gotta go over to the premium side there to catch out, to catch what the Agbol T-Rex himself had to say about it.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: On here, I'm more concerned with fertilizer today and fuels.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think there are any huge surprises here, but heading into harvest, heading into what am I gonna do after harvest on applications and whatnot?
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: I want you to, I've got charts.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: I want you to have a visual of what prices are doing, and we're gonna compare them.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna run them all down and show you charts on uh seven, seven different nutrients, plus two fuels, including Farm Diesel Ruby Red.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: That one's ugly, by the way.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sure I don't need to tell you.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: And then I've got I've got some other other little graphs.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: We'll switch from charts to graphs on how uh some of these nutrients and the fuels compare to year ago.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: Very interesting there, and I hope you'll stick around to the end of my little bit on fertilizer because uh there's there's a lot to be gained by at least uh understanding where we're at, how we compared a year ago, both on expected new crop revenue and on uh our overall fertilizer price cost.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm happy to bring that to you.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: I will bring you some of the details from the report, but as I said, go to Agbull.com, subscribers to uh check out Tommy's comments from earlier today.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: Agbull.com, call 855-737 Farm to subscribe or visit Agbol.com if you'd care to take your marketing by the horns, Agbull.com.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: And uh just a programming note, Krista Swanson from NCGA tomorrow, the National Corn Growers Association.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: Krista Swanson, looking forward to this one.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: I set this up about two weeks ago, and she's she's won a major award since she and I spoke about uh appearing on AgSquawk here.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_01: I'm very excited to talk to her about it and to uh to bring her to you, my beloved audience.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: So let's let's get into some news items here.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_01: Private exporters reported the sale of 105,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: That's for the 26-27 marketing year.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: Been a little quiet on the daily sales front lately.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_01: Good to see some soybeans moving.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: Ethanol production down 2% on the week.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: Ethanol stocks broke through 24 million barrels and came in below the bottom end of expectations at 23.865 million barrels.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: I do like 23 million barrels a whole lot better than 24 million barrels.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: We're easing our way downward, production down two percent.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe that's a seasonal thing.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: It does seem like at least demand is headed in the right direction.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: In other energy news, U.S.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_01: crude stocks grew more than expected.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_01: But gasoline and distillate inventories softened in the most recent report week of note, refinery utilization in the United States declined 1.5%.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: It was a rodeo today, folks.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get to the tail of the ticker.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: Corn futures were tepidly higher early in the session.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: Soybeans quickly sprang a dime higher, and winter wheat futures immediately began kind of a slow decline that would drift lower up until the report's release.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_01: That was at 11 o'clock central time this morning.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: The cattle complex was moderately higher from the jump, and lean hogs firmed early, but quickly gave those gains back.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: Following the report, the bottom fell out from under corn futures, which posted declines in the teens.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean futures came well off session highs, but remained around four cents higher.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: Winter wheat futures fell sharply with Chicago futures off around 14 cents.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_01: Cattle futures maintained gains.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: Lean hog futures hovered near early session lows.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: And before we get to the settlements, let's do talk about some of those numbers.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: Just some very tertiary glances here.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: But corn stocks blew through the top end of expectations, 2.09 or 5 billion bushels.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean stocks slightly below the average pre-report trade guess at 315 million bushels, and wheat stocks were also just below the average trade estimate at 1.846 billion bushels.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: The immediate read: bearish for corn and wheat, slightly, slightly heavy for soybeans.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: In the small grains report, all wheat production was at the high end of the range of expectations, with both hard and soft red flavors very near the top end of expectations.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: Beyond that, spring wheat production came in near the low end of the range of expectations, with Durham wheat production very near the average pre-report trade guess.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: Now let's do get to those settlements.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: As I said, it was a close one on corn.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: The session low, and corn today, 498 and three quarters.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: Just drink that in for a moment.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: 498 and 3 quarters at settlement.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_01: $5.03 of one cent in the December corn futures.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_01: Down 21 and 1 quarter cents on the day.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: Novi beans, yeah, still stuck in in 12 territory.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_01: $12.93 at settlement, down four and three quarters.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_01: Soy meal was lower.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: Soy oil slightly lower, very close to unchanged.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_01: In fact, the October contract was a uh a straight goose egg there, no change.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_01: Down to the wheats, your Chicago wheat, down 17 cents on the day, settled out at 6 uh$6.75 and three quarters, and KC wheat down a dime even at$7.33.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: Over to the livestocks.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_01: October feeder cattle,$2.77 and one half.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_01: Uh higher.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: Gosh, higher on the day.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: I got stuck in the lower loop there.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: Feeder cattle were higher,$3.36.42.5.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_01: October fat cattle up$1.45 to$218.67.5.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_01: And uh December Lean Hog Futures down 27.5 at 69.42 and 12.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_01: The October contract off 65 at 78.72 and 12.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: And with that, let me uh just just give a quick shout out to our sponsors, plus 500.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: Me and my squad use plus 500 T4 software every single day for real-time quotes and a host of options and you know various functions that we love and have come to rely on plus 500.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_01: That's plus 500.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, let's get into the fertilizers here.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: These are, if you've if you've never seen one of my fertilizer programs before, I've got an average between Illinois and Iowa.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: And that's what I'm gonna be reporting on here.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_01: The values will be what I'm calling a Midwestern average.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: I realize the Midwest is bigger than just Iowa and Illinois, but this gives us a good shot of the gut slot of corn and soybean country and should give us all at least an idea of the trend in which prices are beginning to move.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: So with that, uh let's uh let's start with the anhydris ammonia, a big down week for Iowa, down more than$200 per short ton.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: Iowa's at$823.40, Illinois at$907.50 for an average of$865.45, down$92.05 on the week.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: As you can see, we're headed down, according to this chart here, we're headed down toward the year-wego price, still still a fair bit above the three-year average.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_01: Let's move on to uh phosphates now.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_01: I've got DAP up$11.35.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_01: Still up, still higher on the phosphates.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_01: $9.28.57 is your uh average there for DAP.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_01: Over to map, we're higher here as well.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: $9.50 higher,$9.42.50 on your phosphates, and they're just headed in absolutely the wrong direction.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: If you're trying to make decisions about phosphate applications post-harvest, this is not what you want to see.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: Unless, I mean, unless you bought, you know, a couple of months ago, maybe.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_01: I don't I don't like the setup here one dang bit.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_01: And if you look at the at last year's, these are the thinner solid lines on the chart on your screen before you there uh my viewers with uh screens.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: Not a lot of price relief last year, and really similar deal according to the three-year average heading toward the the first of the year, the first of 2027.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: It is coming up, and I just I don't see a whole lot of price relief in the meantime.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get over to Gentle Potash Vitamin K.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_01: We're at uh$483.17 per short ton.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: Not too shabby there.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_01: That one is actually underpriced compared to anhydrous ammonia down twelve dollars sixty-three cents in the report week.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_01: UAN solutions, I've got 28% down four dollars seventy nine.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: Let me move this over to here so I can kind of see both at the same time.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_01: I'm I'm looking back and forth like a crazy person.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: Hold on.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_01: What did I say?
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_01: UAN?
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, 28%, 28% down$4.79,$506.88, over to 32%.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: Big downdraft in 32%,$80.2 lower since USDA's previous report, now at an average of$530.60 per short ton.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_01: Urea, sweet, sweet urea,$722 is unchanged for the last couple of weeks here.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: And you know what?
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go here.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_01: This is our fertilizer price index.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_01: If we average everything out, so it's one to one, and we get one great big number from all of the fertilizers.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_01: Ideally, it should be equal or below one acre of expected new crop corn revenue.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_01: As you can see, the light blue, which is our fertilizer price index, our FPI, is overpriced compared to expected new crop revenue.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_01: Still, as I said in my last fertilizer report, I like this setup here where they're kind of doing this.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_01: They're coming together, they're thinking about it, but we're we've got a long ways to go before we're before we're back on Kilter there.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_01: I see Tommy Grassofi popped into the studio really quick.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if he can hear me or not.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_01: Tommy, can you hear me?
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you want to pop on and say hello to the good folks for a second?
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he's driving right now.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure where he is or why he's driving, but he he's certainly in a vehicle.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_01: Tommy?
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, sir.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_01: Mr.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_01: Tommy Gasafi, yeah.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_01: We got to play the theme music.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_01: That's how that's how they know you're on.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: Mr.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_01: Gasafi, now I I told the listeners, and I I hope I was right.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_01: I'm I was just working like a dog to get this put together for today because there's so much information on the fuels and fertilizers, but there was a fair amount of market-moving information in the uh quarterly grain stocks report and in the small grain summary, wasn't there?
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_00: I uh I got ready for work, knew theirs report, wasn't overly nervous about it.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: The interesting thing is that porn, if you look at the latter, like we use our T4 software, I give them a shout-up.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: The a big amount of volume traded before the report from up one cent to up three cents, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or not hundreds, but say 50,000 contracts traded aggressively up three, report comes out, we smack it down 13, and as corn's zooming down, beans are going up, and you're kind of shaking your head saying, What's going on?
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_00: But it's interesting, Davis, how they do all these surveys.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: We work with some smart people.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: We know a lot of smart people in the industry.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: I think you've had every quote unquote smart person ever on various shows you worked with.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: And I think the smart people got their ass kicked today.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know how to say it even more polite than that.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: I can spin it to a positive is that I think the American farmer is heavily sold coming into harvest, and they were looking for a break to buy.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: I think the ethanol industry was caught out of position and was looking for a break to buy.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: I think the end user and exporter will feel some relief.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: Various countries around the world who felt like grains were getting away from them.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: This is a good opportunity to square up.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the really, really Let me stop you there.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: Let me stop you there for one second.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you're not giving away the farm, are you?
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, because I was just sending premium subscribers over for the good stuff from from the Agbol T-Rex himself.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: Are you saving a little something?
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_01: Is there a little something in your pocket yet?
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_01: This is pretty good.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: The the good the good thing is is that December 27 was only down about a nickel.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_00: So nobody got hurt worse today than the funds.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: The funds took it in the cheeks and they got poked right there, and they're just that's these funds.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: When the funds give you a gift of record length, it needs to be sold and protected.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: And you feel like you're missing out.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: But people who I'll give you an example.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: I had one client who sold some grain, bought some calls, sold more grain, didn't get the calls bought.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: He came in today and got those calls bought, and he feels much better.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: So it's about to stay in fair and balanced.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: We got uh I don't know when the USD is gonna give a number.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: It can it could ruin a day.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: And if a 20 cent move in corn absolutely ruined your day, you weren't fair and balanced, right?
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_01: Let's uh let's leave it there, Tommy, because uh we can use this as a dandy tease.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_01: If you're not a premium subscriber, get there.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_01: Agbol.com, agbol.com to dig deeper.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: And this these are the moments when digging deeper can really pay off to your bottom line there.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_01: And you can get a free Bluetooth speaker.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_01: We're not saying get rid of your AM radio, add a speaker to it, clip it on your belt, put it in your toolbox.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_01: $250 for an annual subscription means you get two months for free.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_01: Two months absolutely free, plus the uh Bluetooth speaker from straight from Tommy Grossopi himself, at goal.com.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: Or, you know, let's just go monthly.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_01: We can go monthly, let's take our time.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: $25 a month, Tommy.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: No speaker on the$25 a month thing because I'm afraid not.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: I'm afraid not.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: The speaker costs$25, but I will I do want to take a moment to thank the new people who subscribed.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, explained last week when you were gone that we're not bought out by big ad.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: We're not bought out in the sense that we're not paid to tell folks what to say.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_00: We say what we're thinking, we work with really smart people, and we try we always try our best.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: We may not always be right, but it will always be continuous.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: Another thing, too, I gotta tell you, Davis, I can't believe how hard Jim Wiesmeyer works.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: The amount of content that uh will you talk a little bit about what he's getting ready to do here?
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: I I think what you're talking about is him getting ready to move over behind a paywall.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: And uh he would uh it's a tough call because Jim has such a heart for he's a journalist, buddy.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_01: He he bleeds in vowels and consonants.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_01: I've seen him.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_01: He cut his finger once, and like an E and a couple of G's came out, and there was an R.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: You know, they're just getting all over the place.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: He loves to deliver information, especially to the ag community.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: He he, especially farmers, he loves to get this stuff done, but this is unique content that you can't get any place else.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: And so that you know, that puts Wiesmeyer in a difficult position, and he's he's made the decision that that some of this is gonna go behind a paywall pretty soon.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_01: Tommy, I don't know when the cutoff date is.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: Were we talking about maybe the first of the year, or have we moved it up since then?
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_00: No, it's gonna be moved up.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: He may be premium by before the midterms because that's when he shines.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_00: And Jim's gonna find his worth really quick because people are so used to getting his content.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_00: So you come into midterms and you're like, where the hell is my Jim Weismeyer free letter?
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_00: Sometimes free's too expensive.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: I want to say something.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_00: That on Sunday night he went to bed and there was a breaking story on that the beans weren't in the in the deal.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_00: And he got up, wrote a story, and published a story at one o'clock Eastern.
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_00: And beans were only down 12 cents when that happened, and then by Monday morning they were down 32.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: And he said, This is a significant, he sent me a story, not just me, everyone got it at the same time.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_00: He said, This is significant, yeah, and he doesn't trade his own account.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I just think the world of him, he's he's also he has a badge, like a legal badge.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_00: He's part of the grammar police, he's certified.
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and uh with that, I'm really proud of how the team's coming.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: We entered, we exit today.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: Is the last day of Q3?
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_00: We got Davis on in the afternoon at shout out for self if that's legal.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: I can do it, I will do it.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_00: Jed, and congrats to Sidwell Cattle.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: They had a super successful auction yesterday, and there's gonna be a lot of kids who got some really great animals.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: Brother Joe clicking buttons, and he just gets paid to be my he gets paid to be my brother.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: That's all I mean.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you'd have to pay a guy to do something like that.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's not easy duty, you know?
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: It's not, it can't be.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: And all the folks in the back helping at Nesvig, Zachary, Lindsay, Justin, there's a whole group of people, of course, our sponsors who are not big at T4, and big shout out to Trade the News.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_00: Those boys are drinking out the content all night long.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_00: By the way, when that story came out Sunday night, Trade the News had it before anyone.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_00: Like Trade the News said it, and I said, Did they just say what I thought they said?
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_00: Because that wouldn't be that would not be friendly to markets.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: And uh it wasn't.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: But here we are.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: What were you doing up at that hour?
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_01: What were you doing up at that hour?
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_00: I was working on tax documents from my accountant that uh procrastination's a horrible disease.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_01: So it ended up working out for me, but well, just remember, Tommy, you can always procrastinate later, you know.
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I that sounds I will I will try that.
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_00: I will try that.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: See, this is how you can tell that we are not under any sort of influence whatsoever from a sponsor because there's no way they'd let me say something like that.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_01: You can procrastinate later, you know, it's fine.
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_01: It's fine.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: Real quick, I I know I'm taking up a lot of your time and the viewers' time.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: I missed the first part, what you talked about with fertilizer and fuel, but I'm not done yet.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_01: I'm right in the middle of it.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: This is a great cut because I'm just about to get into diesel.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: Kick me out, and uh, we'll talk more later, and I'll I'll put some thoughts in the premium and send that out to clients in the morning.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: Love it.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_01: I love it.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_01: I love it.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_01: Tommy Grassoppi.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you guys.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_01: Travel safely, my friend.
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_01: Tommy Grassofi, the Egg Bowl T-Rex himself.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_01: That wasn't a bad little little break there because uh we're about to get into diesel, and this this chart is about the unsexiest thing I've ever seen.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_01: Record highs.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_01: Weesmeyer reported yesterday, I believe it was, that highway diesel has come down off of the the record highs.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_01: Problem is I sort of have the sense that farm diesel moves a little bit more slowly price-wise than does highway diesel.
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_01: And and even still, that highway diesel pullback wasn't much of a pullback at all.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_01: The numbers look like this in farm country.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_01: 550 is the average per gallon in Iowa, 561 in Illinois.
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_01: That's a 62 cent rise from USDA's previous report.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_01: The average between Iowa and Illinois on farm diesel Ruby Red,$5.56.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: LP, uh actually down four cents on your liquid propane.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_01: We're at a buck forty-eight in and Illinois doesn't quote an LP price, which I kind of don't understand, unless maybe they're using more nat gas on the farm, which, you know, it's fine.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_01: It's fine.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_01: Uh so in Iowa, we're at a buck forty-eight, but even that's expensive.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_01: It's come down.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna get to some Urugos now.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about nitrogen year on year.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, this is pretty simple.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_01: Far left is anhydrous ammonia, and I've got I've got the percentages on this too.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: Here we go.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: Anhydrous ammonia is uh 10% above the same week last year in history.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_01: UAN 28% is up next there, 17% above year ago, 32%, uh, 15% above year ago, and urea on the far right, 11%.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: Point four seven percent, eleven and a half percent above year ago.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty much lockstep, although anhydris, it may not feel like it, but up just ten percent is uh is the best that we get out of the nitrogen side.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go to P and K.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_01: Let's see, what's the furthest one here?
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, we got DAP map, then potash.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_01: Far left is DAP up 5.84%.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_01: It was already high to begin with.
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_01: I don't understand how how phosphates continue to go higher except for that global demand, and we're missing some Chinese product.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_01: It'd be nice if China would dump some back in.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_01: That would be a goodwill gesture, I feel like.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_01: Let's have a little bit of phosphate.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_01: How about map?
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that one's up 11.34% on the year.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_01: The orange is this year, blue is is last year, and gentle potash actually down on the year, 1.87% lower from the same week last year.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_01: So let's talk about how that shakes out again.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_01: My fertilizer price index should equate in the perfect world to either equal to or below one acre of expected new crop corn revenue.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_01: And as you can see, the fruit price index here is slightly higher than a year ago, 8.64% new crop revenue, which is on the right here.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_01: You're looking at that orange bar there, that's actually encouraging.
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_01: It may not seem like it, 13.83% higher than the same week last year.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_01: So as we've seen on that chart from before, let me see if I can do it on the camera here.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: The your fertilizer price and your corn price are beginning to at least look in the right direction to correct some of this nuttiness that this these high prices have done to us.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: But uh, we've we've got a little little work to do.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_01: In fact, we've got an awful lot of work to do.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_01: Either either corn needs to come up pretty hard or the entire fertilizer complex needs to come down hard.
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm looking at you, phosphates.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_01: Phosphates would be a would be a great start.
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_01: Although, compared to anhydrous ammonia, all of the nitrogen segment is overpriced if we compare it on by the pound of N on a one-to-one basis.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_01: So I hope that helps.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_01: I I wish that I had news of some pending price relief on that stuff.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_01: I don't.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_01: I don't.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_01: We talked to Allison Thompson from the money farm last week.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_01: Her comment was control the controllables, and I'm a firm believer that that begins with knowledge.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_01: So talk to your preferred fertilizer and fuels retailers.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_01: They may not be the same person.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_01: Talk to your preferred retailers, chem, seed, everything.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_01: It's time to start having that conversation and start scratching out some of those numbers because next year's a coming, gang.
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_01: We it it may feel like a nice little break.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know how you don't think about it as you're driving around in the combine, as you're waiting in the pickup wagon.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_01: I I don't know how you you don't.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_01: So let me just put these thoughts into your mind, revisit this if you're sitting out there in the field and have some time to kill.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_01: Just look at those charts, go along and just kind of pause it and just see if you know you you've got to talk to your retailers and begin to build a plan.
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_01: If you fail to plan, you well, I I'm not even gonna say it, because you know how it ends.
• 25:41
  SPEAKER_01: You know how it ends.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_01: We want the best for you.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_01: Now you know.
• 25:44
  SPEAKER_01: That was today's fertilizer program.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_01: Let's uh let's talk about tomorrow.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_01: You know what?
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_01: Actually, I do have this from Wiesmeyer.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_01: It just popped up.
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_01: Just popped up.
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_01: He uh put out a special bulletin, and you're gonna like this.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_01: It's titled Ten Reasons for Optimism about U.S.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_01: agriculture's future from Jim Wiesmeyer.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just gonna read the opening paragraph here.
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_01: U.S.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: agriculture, he says, has meaningful reasons for optimism through the remainder of 2026 and into the years ahead.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_01: USDA projections point to improving export prospects, record soybean processing, and continued productivity gains, while expanded crop insurance benefits strengthen producers' ability to manage risk.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_01: Together, those developments offer a foundation for better farm returns, even as financial conditions vary widely across commodities and operations.
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_01: That's from uh Jim Wiesmeyer.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: He just put it out there, a bulletin titled 10 Reasons for Optimism About U.S.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_01: Agriculture's Future.
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_01: With that, let's let's do let's do a quick word to trade the news because we are grateful.
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_01: Tommy already mentioned it.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_01: We're grateful for their support.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we use trade the news to keep me and my entire squad, Wiesmeyer included, informed on all the news that moves markets.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_01: Trade the news.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: It's useful news that you can use.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_01: Use trade the news for useful news.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I hope some of this helps.
• 27:16
  SPEAKER_01: I know it's it's hard to look at, and it's um as as I said, and I say this all the time, I I wish that I had better news for you on fertilizers and fuels, but I would I would rather give you the reality than uh than sugarcoat it, folks.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_01: Because uh you you as an industry know what to do with tough times, and uh so I'm hoping that I can put a wrench in your toolbox, a wrench of knowledge that will help you do what you need to do to get by and and keep farming for another good several, several years, and then hopefully one day pass it on to the next generation.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about the weather.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_01: It's uh rainy in Kansas City and it's gonna keep raining for uh for a while.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_01: Flood watches and stuff are in effect basically through that red area that you see uh in the uh central Midwest on the map on the screen.
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_01: According to the National Weather Service uh Pacific Tropical Moisture wrapping into a storm will continue a multi-day heavy rainfall event this week that will impact the southwest into the plains.
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_01: Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible across portions of the southern plains this afternoon and tonight.
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_01: That's me.
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_01: There is also a risk of isolated severe wind gusts and tornadoes in Kansas into Nebraska.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: Eyes on the skies, gang.
• 28:36
  SPEAKER_01: And just real quick, some items of mild interest according to popculture madness.com.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_01: On this day in September 30.
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: Here's something fun to think about.
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_01: In 1960, the Flintstones debuted on ABC during prime time.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_01: In 1975, the Muhammad Ali versus Joe Frazier title fight from the Philippines, the thriller in Manila, was sent via satellite to the U.S.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: and shown on HBO.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_01: And finally, Joe jumped the gun a little bit on this because he's so excited.
• 29:08
  SPEAKER_01: This was a great show.
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_01: 1985.
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_01: McGyver debuted on ABC.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_01: I miss those shows.
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_01: You know what?
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_01: And there's a there's a there's like a a new reboot of McGyver.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 29:22
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe drop a comment if it's something that I need to be watching.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_01: There have been some reboots, and I I just I guess I'm not a fan.
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not a fan.
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_01: Richard Dean Anderson is McGyver, and that's it.
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_01: That's all I need.
• 29:36
  SPEAKER_01: I got as much from McGyver as I needed back in the 80s.
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_01: Well, thanks so much for watching Egg Squawk this afternoon.
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, if you haven't had a chance, go to Agbol.com.
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_01: Check out all the lavish premium services we've got for you.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_01: You want to get clear crazy?
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_01: Sure.
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_01: Throw down 250 big ones and uh subscribe for an entire year.
• 29:55
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• 29:57
  SPEAKER_01: And uh you can get that Bluetooth speaker while supplies last.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_01: Agbull.com or call 855737 Farm.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_01: Jed Sidwell will set you up bright and early tomorrow morning, and then I'll have a conversation with Krista Swanson from NCGA, the National Corn Growers Association, tomorrow afternoon.
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_01: I appreciate you, everybody.
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_01: Hang in there.
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see you next time for more Ag Squaw.