Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NBA + NHL + NCAAF Best Bets Saturday 11/15/25
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:05Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
- 0:08Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
- 0:11Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
- 0:14Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that. I
- 0:17Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
- 0:20Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
- 0:24Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
- 0:28Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
- 0:33Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
- 0:37Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
- 0:41Speaker 1: Bruins hack Man, I don't know what is going on
- 0:43Speaker 1: with the Bruins. March Hape, is that what it is?
- 0:46Speaker 1: I don't even know it's March ninth, I think who
- 0:50Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what day it is anymore.
- 0:52Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
- 0:55Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
- 0:59Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die,
- 1:02Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did
- 1:06Speaker 1: not go well for me. Own five. The worst month
- 1:10Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
- 1:13Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
- 1:15Speaker 1: The slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
- 1:21Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
- 1:24Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it all.
- 1:32Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody is towed back with you. I keep
- 1:35Speaker 1: almost saying better off, dead toadstool sports, whatever you want
- 1:38Speaker 1: to call this show. We suck, the slump, the slump continues,
- 1:42Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. This is Saturday, November fifteenth.
- 1:47Speaker 1: Thanks to all you guys that were hanging out with
- 1:49Speaker 1: the hanging up for the College Football show last night.
- 1:52Speaker 1: So I gave up five plays. I'll reiterate those in
- 1:55Speaker 1: this show. I'm going to try to get this show done.
- 1:57Speaker 1: I'm gonna add five college basketball plays, which I feel
- 2:01Speaker 1: like I'm almost going blind in college basketball right now
- 2:04Speaker 1: because the market reads are like impossible in the morning.
- 2:06Speaker 1: Like once we get into conference play, that's really my
- 2:10Speaker 1: jam because we get better situations. But hopefully my reads
- 2:14Speaker 1: are on and these one of the lines is like moving,
- 2:17Speaker 1: it's on the move, So I apologize for that one.
- 2:19Speaker 1: It's it's and it's a night game. Too. It's gonna
- 2:21Speaker 1: be the last one that I give out, so I
- 2:24Speaker 1: apologize that that number is getting out of control. I
- 2:26Speaker 1: mean that's what happens in college basketball. But I like
- 2:29Speaker 1: that side, and then we do have I'm gonna give
- 2:31Speaker 1: out two hockey plays as well. Jeffrey, what's up, TCU? Yeah,
- 2:38Speaker 1: I agree with TCU. That's against b YU. I believe
- 2:42Speaker 1: b YU. Yeah, just massively overrated after taking their first
- 2:47Speaker 1: loss this late into the season. I talked about that
- 2:49Speaker 1: last night. Yeah, I agree with that one. Charles, what's
- 2:52Speaker 1: up man? Thanks for hanging out Texas, I don't really
- 2:56Speaker 1: agree with I like the under in that game more
- 2:58Speaker 1: than the side, as I mentioned last night, but I
- 3:00Speaker 1: would probably lean to Georgia. I mean, Georgia just seems
- 3:03Speaker 1: to have Texas's number. Both teams have good deepfense, like
- 3:07Speaker 1: Texas has the better defense, but uh, Georgia has an
- 3:11Speaker 1: offense and Texas basically doesn't. So I mean I think
- 3:15Speaker 1: that's I mean, that's built into the line, of course,
- 3:17Speaker 1: but I think that is probably a difference maker in
- 3:20Speaker 1: that game. Although you could argue, I guess it's double
- 3:22Speaker 1: revenge for Texas, but I I really don't like that yes,
- 3:27Speaker 1: sir toadstool, TCU and b y U is the Holy
- 3:31Speaker 1: War TCU. Why though, I don't know TCU oh TCU
- 3:38Speaker 1: is Texas Christian, right, I forgot, I keep calling him
- 3:41Speaker 1: t CU. I forget what TCU even means. Yeah, you're right,
- 3:44Speaker 1: it's a Texas Christians against the Mormons. Yeah. Correct, that's
- 3:50Speaker 1: the unofficial Holy War. The actual holy wars are Utah
- 3:54Speaker 1: versus by U and Notre Dame versus Boston College is
- 3:59Speaker 1: also called the whole even though like Utah versus BYU
- 4:03Speaker 1: is Mormon versus Mormon, isn't it? And then Notre Dame
- 4:06Speaker 1: in BC are Catholic versus Catholic Irish Catholic versus Irish
- 4:11Speaker 1: cat looks specifically, So I don't know. Yesterday we went
- 4:14Speaker 1: five and five. It should have been a lot better
- 4:16Speaker 1: than that. College basketball was good. Hofstra was bad in
- 4:20Speaker 1: the first half that they made adjustments at halftime apparently
- 4:23Speaker 1: they completely turned it on and they were able to
- 4:25Speaker 1: win pretty easily. So we got that win. De Paul
- 4:29Speaker 1: was hanging in that game against Northwestern the whole time.
- 4:31Speaker 1: They had chances to win that game outright. They didn't
- 4:34Speaker 1: do it, but they lost by two they covered, So
- 4:37Speaker 1: obviously I'll take that. Illinois against Colgate that was a
- 4:41Speaker 1: winner with Colgate covering. As I had said on I
- 4:45Speaker 1: think I said it on my Instagram video, I was
- 4:47Speaker 1: basically thinking that Illinois just wasn't going to really try
- 4:50Speaker 1: to push the issue, and I was thinking, if Illinois
- 4:52Speaker 1: stays kind of in the eighties here, were probably gonna
- 4:54Speaker 1: get this cover. And I think that's exactly what happened.
- 4:57Speaker 1: I think they ended up in the eighties and Colgate
- 4:58Speaker 1: wound up in the sixties. So and I figured, I
- 5:01Speaker 1: was like, Colgate just has to get like basically into
- 5:03Speaker 1: the fifties, and I think they can cover this one
- 5:05Speaker 1: if that happened. So they were able to cover right,
- 5:07Speaker 1: even though they were never close to winning the game obviously,
- 5:10Speaker 1: but it was a massive spread and Colgate was never
- 5:13Speaker 1: really in danger of losing that the spread cover there.
- 5:17Speaker 1: Cal Poly was the one loss that we took towards
- 5:21Speaker 1: the end of the night there in basketball, they they
- 5:24Speaker 1: were definitely losing by margin for a bunch of that game,
- 5:27Speaker 1: but they came back and they were in that game
- 5:29Speaker 1: at the end, and the way they lost that game
- 5:31Speaker 1: or didn't cover was just extremely frustrating because you have
- 5:34Speaker 1: them plus a seven and a half. Teams stop intentionally
- 5:37Speaker 1: fouling when they're down seven. However, they do intentionally foul
- 5:41Speaker 1: when they're down six, and that is what cal Poly
- 5:44Speaker 1: did repeatedly. And Montana hit all of their free throws
- 5:47Speaker 1: at the end of the game, so they kept they
- 5:50Speaker 1: kept putting the lead back to eight and went six
- 5:52Speaker 1: to eight, six to eight, six to eight, and it
- 5:55Speaker 1: ended on the eight and cal Poly put up a
- 5:57Speaker 1: three pointer at the end and missed, and that was it.
- 6:00Speaker 1: So they fouled that one last time when they were
- 6:03Speaker 1: down six. At that point, I mean there were like
- 6:05Speaker 1: five seconds left. They could have just decided not to
- 6:07Speaker 1: foul anymore, but no, they have to foul and not cover.
- 6:11Speaker 1: And then we did get the win with Colorado. So
- 6:14Speaker 1: college basketball was good yesterday four and one. And college
- 6:16Speaker 1: basketball is my most questionable sport, just because last year
- 6:21Speaker 1: wound up so bad, especially March this year. But hopefully
- 6:25Speaker 1: my handicapping is still gonna be good because it was
- 6:28Speaker 1: good the previous couple of years, although again I do
- 6:31Speaker 1: a lot better when conference play starts. Maybe I should
- 6:34Speaker 1: stop pushing the issue. But Colorado with to win their
- 6:38Speaker 1: hockey was unbelievably frustrating, with two favorites that both wound
- 6:42Speaker 1: up losing in overtime or shootout, including Saint Louis, even
- 6:46Speaker 1: though Saint Louis had a five to three lead with
- 6:48Speaker 1: ten minutes left in the game, and I believe they
- 6:50Speaker 1: were alternating between tide and having the lead, like I
- 6:53Speaker 1: don't think they ever trailed the game until they lost
- 6:56Speaker 1: the shootout, although Philadelphia did outshoot Sae Lewis in the game,
- 7:01Speaker 1: so there were some statistics that kind of say the
- 7:03Speaker 1: game was not really that lopside in favor of Saint Louis,
- 7:07Speaker 1: who wound up losing the game, of course for us,
- 7:09Speaker 1: but part of my handicap was I don't like the
- 7:12Speaker 1: goaltending for Philadelphia, and that was definitely part of what
- 7:14Speaker 1: happened in that game. And again, you have a five
- 7:17Speaker 1: to three lead with ten minutes left, there's no way
- 7:19Speaker 1: you should lose that game. And Saint Louis lost the game.
- 7:22Speaker 1: They allowed it to be tied, they lost in a shootout,
- 7:25Speaker 1: absolutely brutal. And then Utah was hanging on to a
- 7:28Speaker 1: two to one lead for most of the later portions
- 7:31Speaker 1: of that game, thinking all right, well, two to one.
- 7:35Speaker 1: If they finished with a two to one, we'll get
- 7:36Speaker 1: a push on that, like that's fine, no big deal whatever,
- 7:39Speaker 1: I'll just take that. And if that happened, that would
- 7:41Speaker 1: be a winning day. One of these things. Any one
- 7:43Speaker 1: of these things went slightly differently. If Philadelphia had won,
- 7:47Speaker 1: if Utah had just pushed the bat ear in one
- 7:50Speaker 1: by one, if cal Poly didn't foul that one additional time,
- 7:55Speaker 1: we would have had a winning day yesterday instead of
- 7:57Speaker 1: a slight loss at five and five. Utah wound up
- 7:59Speaker 1: losing overtime. They allowed the game to be tied, and
- 8:02Speaker 1: then they lost even though they were the favorite. I dude,
- 8:06Speaker 1: I don't even know. Hockey and NBA have been good
- 8:08Speaker 1: for me, and last night they were not. NBA started
- 8:11Speaker 1: out good, We started out the night the first two
- 8:13Speaker 1: games that we had won with Hofstra and then the
- 8:17Speaker 1: Brooklyn Nets got the cover. They didn't went out right,
- 8:20Speaker 1: but they looked like they might even have a chance
- 8:22Speaker 1: to win that game out right. I mean, they definitely
- 8:25Speaker 1: were in that number. I think it was a wire
- 8:26Speaker 1: to wire cover. So we got Brooklyn correct. Sacramento was
- 8:30Speaker 1: absolutely brutal. They absolutely should have covered that. Sacramento. They
- 8:34Speaker 1: had chances to maybe even win that game. It looked
- 8:36Speaker 1: like they're winning the game outright in the second half.
- 8:39Speaker 1: I think it was a wired to wire cover for
- 8:41Speaker 1: Sacramento until the final six minutes of the game when
- 8:45Speaker 1: Sacramento decided to score zero points over a span of
- 8:48Speaker 1: four minutes. Like I'm pretty sure they were within one
- 8:51Speaker 1: or two points with six minutes left in the game,
- 8:53Speaker 1: and then they didn't score for the next four minutes,
- 8:55Speaker 1: and now all of a sudden, they're down double digits, Like,
- 8:57Speaker 1: what the fuck are you doing? And then they want
- 8:59Speaker 1: to losing by fourteen and we had them at plus twelve.
- 9:03Speaker 1: That is absolutely brutal. Sacramento should have covered that again.
- 9:07Speaker 1: That like the final score was almost the only time
- 9:09Speaker 1: or they were not covering in that game. It was
- 9:11Speaker 1: just because they went that stretch without scoring at all,
- 9:14Speaker 1: which is almost impossible. And then san Antonio that was
- 9:19Speaker 1: bullshit too, the Spurs. It was a close game, I know,
- 9:22Speaker 1: but san Antonio did have the lead more than the
- 9:24Speaker 1: Warriors did. And then late in the game, it was
- 9:27Speaker 1: like two minutes left, san Antonio was up eight. The
- 9:30Speaker 1: game should have been over. They were up one twenty
- 9:32Speaker 1: to one twelve or something. Like that and then or
- 9:36Speaker 1: no it was one ten to one oh two. Yeah,
- 9:37Speaker 1: I think it's whatever. They were up by eight and
- 9:40Speaker 1: then I think they didn't even score again or something,
- 9:42Speaker 1: and they lost by one or they scored one more
- 9:44Speaker 1: bucket in the final two minutes, Like, what are you doing, dude?
- 9:48Speaker 1: You're up eight with two minutes left. That should basically
- 9:50Speaker 1: be like an insurmountable lead at that point. You're up,
- 9:54Speaker 1: you know, more than you're up three possessions, three plus possessions,
- 9:59Speaker 1: I mean, and that includes if you know, three pointers
- 10:02Speaker 1: get made. I mean, come on, man. So it should
- 10:05Speaker 1: have been a lot better last night than it was.
- 10:07Speaker 1: I'm not happy about it. Ersen, Yeah, he's not good.
- 10:12Speaker 1: Was it him last night or was it fled R?
- 10:14Speaker 1: I didn't even see. I didn't really care. Cal Pauly, Yeah,
- 10:18Speaker 1: they just needed to not fol again. Although that was
- 10:20Speaker 1: actually one of the least frustrating ones because I'd written
- 10:23Speaker 1: that one off as loss because they were losing by
- 10:25Speaker 1: margin for a bit, so I was like, ah, they're
- 10:27Speaker 1: not gonna come back. Then they did, and then in
- 10:29Speaker 1: the end they should have won. Sacramento Kings was down
- 10:33Speaker 1: one in The Spurs were the worst ones because at
- 10:36Speaker 1: no point did it look like they really should have
- 10:38Speaker 1: not covered those, especially Sacramento, like Sacramento had that thing
- 10:41Speaker 1: in the bag that was ridiculous. All right, let's move
- 10:46Speaker 1: on to today college basketball. Man, as I always say,
- 10:51Speaker 1: I want to try to get this done quickly, I
- 10:53Speaker 1: don't know if I'll be able to. I will talk
- 10:55Speaker 1: about salvel Obamon Coppin State just because this is one
- 10:58Speaker 1: of these tournaments that's happening in Saint Petersburg, Florida. It's
- 11:02Speaker 1: on YouTube on the field of sixty eight channel. I
- 11:05Speaker 1: assume at eleven AM Eastern, I don't have anything in
- 11:08Speaker 1: this game. But South Alabama they did beat Central Michigan
- 11:12Speaker 1: I believe yesterday, No, two days ago. They played on Thursdays.
- 11:17Speaker 1: That was a game in this tournament. South Alabama is undefeated,
- 11:20Speaker 1: but they really their only good win, if you want
- 11:22Speaker 1: to call it, that is against Toledo. If that's even good.
- 11:25Speaker 1: I'm not sure the Central Michigan is any good. But
- 11:27Speaker 1: South Alabama did beat them. Meanwhile, Coppin State is owned
- 11:31Speaker 1: five and they did lose to Central Michigan horribly yesterday.
- 11:36Speaker 1: So I mean people are gonna look at this, the
- 11:38Speaker 1: public if they look at this is just gonna be
- 11:39Speaker 1: all over South Alabama because they're undefeated. Copp and State
- 11:44Speaker 1: hasn't won a game. Copp and State got blown up
- 11:46Speaker 1: by Central Michigan, and South Alabama beat Central Michigan. So
- 11:51Speaker 1: it looks pretty easy to lay the points with South
- 11:53Speaker 1: Alabama for all those reasons. And yes, they are the
- 11:55Speaker 1: better team. Obviously, they're an eighteen point favorite up for seventeen,
- 11:59Speaker 1: so that's been built into the line. I don't love it.
- 12:01Speaker 1: I mean I would probably I would be tempted to
- 12:04Speaker 1: take the points with Copp and State, but the fact
- 12:06Speaker 1: they're playing a third game in four days and they're
- 12:08Speaker 1: on a back to back in South Alabama rested both
- 12:11Speaker 1: teams are used to this venue. Now, I don't love it,
- 12:14Speaker 1: but I think that's the way people are gonna handicap
- 12:16Speaker 1: that and think that that's like an obvious play. But
- 12:19Speaker 1: it is not. No, absolutely not. We're not doing three
- 12:22Speaker 1: hours like the games start at twelve. I have to
- 12:25Speaker 1: finalize my picks, I have to get Instagram videos out,
- 12:29Speaker 1: I have to leave as well. No way, this is
- 12:33Speaker 1: gonna be the best bets. Let's get into it already. Man,
- 12:36Speaker 1: Let's go, and the first one up we're gonna fade
- 12:39Speaker 1: a certain team that used to have this game. Yeah, inside,
- 12:43Speaker 1: I want to kill myself. I'm gonna use that drop
- 12:46Speaker 1: all the time. I think, let's do it right now. Man.
- 12:49Speaker 1: This is gonna be one of these massive, massive underdogs.
- 12:52Speaker 1: And I know we're going against a team that likes
- 12:56Speaker 1: to push the pace. I know, but we're gonna take
- 12:58Speaker 1: Ohio plus the thirty one and a half. The line
- 13:01Speaker 1: has gone up on this too, so you might even
- 13:03Speaker 1: be able to get a better number than this. It's
- 13:04Speaker 1: actually up to thirty two on Louisville. But I think
- 13:08Speaker 1: Louisville's got to be a fade here, man. Even though yes,
- 13:11Speaker 1: this is an extremely high total, so it's gonna make
- 13:14Speaker 1: it more easy for Louisville to actually cover a number
- 13:17Speaker 1: like this. But this number is really extreme. Seventy eight
- 13:20Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash on Louisville.
- 13:23Speaker 1: Money looks like it's coming in on Louisville. But I
- 13:25Speaker 1: think this is a sandwich spot and I basically just
- 13:27Speaker 1: have to do it. Hopefully Ohio can just hang within
- 13:31Speaker 1: this number. I mean, Louisville, like I said, they do
- 13:33Speaker 1: play fast. But Ohio also likes to play fast, so
- 13:37Speaker 1: they're not really going to be out of their preferred
- 13:39Speaker 1: tempo at least. And I think Ken Bomb has this
- 13:41Speaker 1: number somewhere in like the mid twenties, So I mean
- 13:44Speaker 1: Ken Bom his numbers can be off early on in
- 13:47Speaker 1: the season, but I do think this number is too high,
- 13:49Speaker 1: especially given the situation. I mean, you know me, I'm
- 13:52Speaker 1: a situational guy, and I think the situation calls for
- 13:57Speaker 1: Louisville to just not want to push the pace here.
- 13:59Speaker 1: This is like what I said with Illinois yesterday, Like
- 14:01Speaker 1: these teams know they're way better than their opponent and
- 14:04Speaker 1: they can come in not really give a full effort here.
- 14:07Speaker 1: In a situation like this, you don't really want to
- 14:08Speaker 1: give your full effort because you have bigger games surrounding
- 14:11Speaker 1: this game, right, So in Louisville's case, I think maybe
- 14:14Speaker 1: they will they can't really give their full effort because
- 14:17Speaker 1: they might already be tired. But they also might just
- 14:20Speaker 1: not want to do it because they know they could
- 14:21Speaker 1: beat Ohio without their full effort. They don't need to
- 14:24Speaker 1: cover here, you know, so they just might not push
- 14:27Speaker 1: the issue because they need to save their energy for
- 14:30Speaker 1: bigger things. Louisville's coming off huge game, huge win of
- 14:33Speaker 1: the season, rivalry game against Kentucky, and they beat Kentucky.
- 14:37Speaker 1: That was a monster win for Louisville. So I do
- 14:39Speaker 1: think this is a letdown spot because of that. That
- 14:43Speaker 1: was a huge win. I believe it was on ESPN.
- 14:45Speaker 1: I think I had an on my TV over here
- 14:47Speaker 1: for a bit monster monster win. Man even bigger because
- 14:50Speaker 1: it's a I mean, that's a Kentucky rivalry, so that
- 14:53Speaker 1: Louisville absolutely wanted that game. They got it. Now they're
- 14:56Speaker 1: gonna play a MAC team in Ohio. They got Cincinnati,
- 15:01Speaker 1: and that's a big game too because that's kind of
- 15:02Speaker 1: a geographic rivalry there Cincinnati not too far from Louisville.
- 15:07Speaker 1: And the other thing about that is that's a big
- 15:10Speaker 1: conference game because Cincinnati's in the Big Twelve. Cincinnati pretty
- 15:14Speaker 1: good history with their basketball program. They're three to zero
- 15:18Speaker 1: to start this season. And this is also a neutral
- 15:20Speaker 1: site game, even though I guess it's in Cincinnati, but
- 15:24Speaker 1: it's listed as a neutral site game, so I guess
- 15:26Speaker 1: it's not at Cincinnati's home stadium even though it's in Cincinnati.
- 15:30Speaker 1: Either way, that's a huge game. So I think this
- 15:32Speaker 1: is a sandwich spot Ohio. They're off to a one
- 15:35Speaker 1: and two start, but one of their losses was against
- 15:37Speaker 1: Saint Mary's. I mean, I don't think you can really
- 15:40Speaker 1: blame them for a loss to Saint Mary's. Yeah, their
- 15:42Speaker 1: opening game was ugly. They lost to Arkansas State. That
- 15:45Speaker 1: probably shouldn't have happened. Ohio was the favorite, but this
- 15:47Speaker 1: is not football. Arkansas State is actually a pretty good
- 15:50Speaker 1: Sun Belt team basketball. Like the last few years, Arkansas
- 15:54Speaker 1: State was always in the mix to win the Sun Belt,
- 15:57Speaker 1: so that loss isn't really maybe as bad as it looks.
- 15:59Speaker 1: And then again, Ohio had to go out to the
- 16:01Speaker 1: Pacific Coast and try to play Saint Mary's. That just
- 16:04Speaker 1: wasn't gonna happen. They lost by thirty, I mean that
- 16:07Speaker 1: was expected. Yes, they are having to travel back from
- 16:10Speaker 1: the Pacific time zone, so that does make this a
- 16:12Speaker 1: little bit difficult. But I hate the spot for Louisville here,
- 16:15Speaker 1: and I think Ohio will want to show up at least.
- 16:17Speaker 1: I mean, this is one of the biggest games on
- 16:19Speaker 1: Ohio schedule. Man, I think it is the biggest, and
- 16:21Speaker 1: they're facing Louisville. I mean, Louisville's pretty close to them geographically. Yeah,
- 16:25Speaker 1: this is the only Big conference team they face all season,
- 16:28Speaker 1: the only Power Conference team, So this is gonna be
- 16:31Speaker 1: a game they have circle that they're gonna want to
- 16:32Speaker 1: get up for, so more meaningful game for Ohio. Will
- 16:36Speaker 1: take the generous amount of points in that one. Yeah,
- 16:41Speaker 1: thank you, sir. I have a bunch of drops here. Now.
- 16:45Speaker 1: I have the Brian Reagan must win one as well.
- 16:48Speaker 1: I don't want to get a copyright strike though, but
- 16:51Speaker 1: also the Brian Reagan one is Yeah, it's maybe too
- 16:54Speaker 1: long because I think if you have videos that are
- 16:56Speaker 1: of a certain length, I think you're allowed to get
- 16:58Speaker 1: away with it. So like the other ones that I
- 17:00Speaker 1: have are much shorter, I might need to find a
- 17:02Speaker 1: shorter one for Reagan. All right, So that's that's a
- 17:07Speaker 1: play there. Man. I don't know which of these games
- 17:11Speaker 1: I really want to talk because a lot of these
- 17:12Speaker 1: games are just mismatches. Man, Clemson and Georgetown, I guess
- 17:17Speaker 1: this is a pretty interressing game. I'm gonna talk about
- 17:19Speaker 1: the games between the two games that are between two
- 17:22Speaker 1: conference teams or two Power Conference teams. You know. Uh,
- 17:26Speaker 1: Clemson is off to a three and oh start. They
- 17:27Speaker 1: haven't played anybody good yet. This is gonna be their
- 17:30Speaker 1: first true road game, though, because Clemson has been good
- 17:33Speaker 1: the last couple of years. We know they made the
- 17:34Speaker 1: tournament the last couple of years. I think they were
- 17:36Speaker 1: in the Elite eight. A couple of years ago. Did
- 17:38Speaker 1: they make the final four? No, I think they were
- 17:41Speaker 1: in the Elite eight though a couple of years ago.
- 17:43Speaker 1: Last year they fell short, obviously because they lost to
- 17:45Speaker 1: MacNeice in the tournament. But everybody knows Clemson has been
- 17:49Speaker 1: good recently. Georgetown has not. I mean the Georgetown glory days.
- 17:53Speaker 1: This is not Patrick Ewing anymore or Roy Hibbert, which
- 17:57Speaker 1: was my college days when Georgetown was still good. Georgetown
- 18:02Speaker 1: was also three and oh. But Georgetown is actually more
- 18:05Speaker 1: battle tested because they did go on the road and
- 18:07Speaker 1: beat Maryland, although Maryland is down this year from what
- 18:10Speaker 1: they were last year, because they did have guys like
- 18:12Speaker 1: Patrick Queen or is it Patrick Queen, Derek Queen? Patrick
- 18:15Speaker 1: Queen I think is the NFL player Derek Queen I
- 18:18Speaker 1: think is his name. He is in the NBA now.
- 18:21Speaker 1: But Georgetown that was a good win on the road
- 18:23Speaker 1: at Maryland anyway, though, So Georgetown is actually more battle
- 18:26Speaker 1: tests and I think the perception of these two teams
- 18:29Speaker 1: might be a little bit off, and the perception might
- 18:31Speaker 1: be that Clemson is a little bit better than they are,
- 18:33Speaker 1: so I would lean to Georgetown. The line did drop
- 18:36Speaker 1: already though, from Clemson as a three and a half
- 18:38Speaker 1: point favorite to a one and a half point favorite.
- 18:40Speaker 1: You're still get to Georgetown as an underdog if you
- 18:42Speaker 1: want them. Fifty two of the tickets are on Georgetown
- 18:45Speaker 1: and fifty four percent of the cash on Clemson. But
- 18:48Speaker 1: I mean the fact that the line dropped is in
- 18:51Speaker 1: conflict with that cash percentages right now. So I don't know.
- 18:55Speaker 1: It's a little bit of a difficult market. Read again.
- 18:57Speaker 1: I think my nose is going to be bleeding on
- 18:59Speaker 1: the stream, by the way, it started bleeding right after
- 19:01Speaker 1: I finished last night. We got just everything is dry.
- 19:05Speaker 1: I'm trying to hydrate. I got to use the netty
- 19:08Speaker 1: pot and just you know, snort, like snort water up
- 19:13Speaker 1: my nose or something. All right, what else do we
- 19:19Speaker 1: have that's of note here? We do have a well,
- 19:22Speaker 1: Merrimack at BU is a Massachusetts game here. I don't
- 19:25Speaker 1: know what to think about that be used the better team.
- 19:27Speaker 1: Merrimack sucks. I don't really have a whole lot else
- 19:30Speaker 1: to say about that, but the money's coming in towards Merrimac.
- 19:32Speaker 1: B used down from five and a half to four.
- 19:36Speaker 1: BU they did just beat Brown. They're two and one
- 19:39Speaker 1: right now. Merrimack is zero to three. So the public's
- 19:42Speaker 1: not gonna want anything to do with Merrimack. But Merrimack
- 19:45Speaker 1: did have to play Auburn on the road and then
- 19:48Speaker 1: Tarlatan State on the roads. They've had a fairly difficult
- 19:50Speaker 1: schedule and celt Dakota State's not an easy out either.
- 19:54Speaker 1: Excuse me, So Merrimack has not had an easy schedule
- 19:58Speaker 1: though they are traveling. I'm not really gonna disagree with
- 20:01Speaker 1: taking the points with Merrimack in that one. But yeah,
- 20:04Speaker 1: I'm gonna do lines of water right off my desk here,
- 20:08Speaker 1: all right. But yeah, I'm not gonna really disagree with
- 20:11Speaker 1: Merrimack in that one. But I mean, it doesn't really
- 20:13Speaker 1: seem like a game I want to touch at all.
- 20:18Speaker 1: You know, Kansas being ranked, they're facing Princeton. Princeton might
- 20:21Speaker 1: be a little bit down this year. I mean they
- 20:22Speaker 1: lost Zavian Lee over to Florida. I believe Kansas a
- 20:27Speaker 1: little bit up this year. I think from last year. Though,
- 20:29Speaker 1: Kansas does have Duke next, so Kansas might kind of
- 20:32Speaker 1: overlook Princeton because Duke is a bigger game and that's
- 20:36Speaker 1: coming up on Tuesday. Definitely potential for a look ahead there.
- 20:41Speaker 1: Princeton has some momentum right now because they've won two
- 20:45Speaker 1: games in a row, although against a Bucknell team that
- 20:47Speaker 1: we saw is not very good. Yesterday with my win
- 20:50Speaker 1: on Hofstra and then they beat a Division two team.
- 20:53Speaker 1: They're going on the road and they did not farewell
- 20:55Speaker 1: on the road in their first game. They got obliterated
- 20:57Speaker 1: by Akron in their first road game. Akron probably one
- 21:00Speaker 1: of the better MAC teams, but that's still a pretty
- 21:03Speaker 1: ugly result. Although first game of the season could be
- 21:05Speaker 1: a little bit weird, you can find a lot of
- 21:07Speaker 1: outliers happening there. I would take the points with Princeton,
- 21:12Speaker 1: but I mean, I'm not jumping out of my seat
- 21:15Speaker 1: to go do it. Kansas is down from twenty four
- 21:17Speaker 1: to twenty three and a half eighty six percent of
- 21:19Speaker 1: the tickets on them, only eighty percent of the cash. Obviously,
- 21:22Speaker 1: Kansas is gonna be a huge favorite there and a
- 21:25Speaker 1: public favorite, but don't want to do anything with it.
- 21:29Speaker 1: UTSA and Denver was a game that I looked at.
- 21:31Speaker 1: This almost made my card on the UTSA side. I mean,
- 21:34Speaker 1: UTSA is one to two and Denver is. Oh no,
- 21:38Speaker 1: Denver's also one too. I was gonna say I thought
- 21:40Speaker 1: Denver was a better record than that, and it looked
- 21:42Speaker 1: like a misleading number with Denver being favored. But Kenbaum
- 21:46Speaker 1: is UTSA is the better team, so yes, Denver should
- 21:49Speaker 1: get some home court advantage here, but the number seems
- 21:51Speaker 1: a little bit high to me at this point. UTSA,
- 21:54Speaker 1: of course, one of our losers the other day was
- 21:56Speaker 1: on UTSA against Texas State. That didn't happen. Both teams
- 22:01Speaker 1: shot pretty poorly in the game, so I don't know
- 22:03Speaker 1: if there's really anything to see here. UTSA got dominated
- 22:06Speaker 1: on the rebounds, so it was not really a good
- 22:08Speaker 1: call by me. Now they're having to go into elevation
- 22:11Speaker 1: and play Denver, not really an easy task for UTSA,
- 22:15Speaker 1: and UTSA still has not beaten a Division One team yet,
- 22:18Speaker 1: so that's not great. Denver, however, is coming off an
- 22:22Speaker 1: upset at Montana State. So Denver is coming off beating
- 22:26Speaker 1: Montana State a seven and a half point underdogs, So
- 22:29Speaker 1: I usually look to fade teams like that because those teams,
- 22:32Speaker 1: you know, they pulled off an upset, they're usually in
- 22:34Speaker 1: an let down spot. If you look at what happened
- 22:35Speaker 1: to this game, look at the win probability chart. Denver
- 22:38Speaker 1: was basically never even close to having a to the
- 22:44Speaker 1: very end, and then all of a sudden they won
- 22:45Speaker 1: the game, which looks like that cal Poly against Seattle
- 22:48Speaker 1: game the other night. Montana State was out to a
- 22:51Speaker 1: double digit leader early, they lost the league, and then
- 22:54Speaker 1: they got it back. They were hanging on out to
- 22:55Speaker 1: the lead for most of the second half of that
- 22:57Speaker 1: was closer. Denver pulled a head at the end in one,
- 23:00Speaker 1: so it could be a letdown spot for Denver. This
- 23:02Speaker 1: is this is actually Denver's home opener, so I don't
- 23:05Speaker 1: really want to fade them in a home opener, although
- 23:08Speaker 1: it looks like it is also a sandwich spot though,
- 23:10Speaker 1: because they're coming off the upset of Montana State and
- 23:12Speaker 1: they do have to face Colorado State next, and you know,
- 23:15Speaker 1: for a team like Denver, that's gonna be a big
- 23:17Speaker 1: game playing one of the bigger Colorado schools up next
- 23:21Speaker 1: and then Arizona, so like they could be looking ahead,
- 23:24Speaker 1: but I just don't really want to fade them in
- 23:26Speaker 1: their home opener, man, and they have faced a difficult
- 23:28Speaker 1: schedule as well, Seattle and Washington both on the road.
- 23:32Speaker 1: That's not that easy to do, and they played pretty
- 23:34Speaker 1: respectably in those games, so I'm not going to get
- 23:37Speaker 1: there with it. I do lean to UTSA a little
- 23:39Speaker 1: bit in that game, although they look really really ugly
- 23:42Speaker 1: right now, but Ken Bomb does still I think have
- 23:45Speaker 1: Utsa is the better team. Denver open is a one
- 23:48Speaker 1: point dog, though now they're a three point favorite, so
- 23:50Speaker 1: some money is backing Denver. So somebody knows something I
- 23:54Speaker 1: guess in that game, something that I do not know.
- 23:59Speaker 1: All right, to Marquette, we have a Big Ten versus
- 24:02Speaker 1: a Big East matchup here. This is an interesting one because, hilariously,
- 24:07Speaker 1: Maryland is in the Big Ten, but Marquette is geographically
- 24:10Speaker 1: closer to where the Big Ten is supposed to be,
- 24:13Speaker 1: so very weird. This is a Maryland's first road game
- 24:16Speaker 1: of the season, so that could be a little bit
- 24:19Speaker 1: difficult for them. They already did like they had one
- 24:21Speaker 1: game where they had to face a Big East team
- 24:23Speaker 1: and Georgetown at home, and Maryland lost that game, and
- 24:26Speaker 1: I think Marquette is better than Georgetown, so that doesn't
- 24:30Speaker 1: look good for Maryland really, so that plus at being
- 24:33Speaker 1: a difficult spot for Maryland. I don't love Maryland here. Marquette,
- 24:38Speaker 1: they had one step up game and they lost pretty
- 24:40Speaker 1: badly to Indiana to so Marquette, I expect them to
- 24:44Speaker 1: be down a little bit this year as well. Both
- 24:45Speaker 1: of these teams that think are down from where they
- 24:47Speaker 1: were last year. You know, they've lost some of their
- 24:51Speaker 1: best players that they had over the last couple of years,
- 24:53Speaker 1: so rebuilding. Marquette did bounce back nicely with a forty
- 24:57Speaker 1: point win against Little Rock in their last game of
- 24:59Speaker 1: though might not be any good although Little Rock recently
- 25:02Speaker 1: has been one of the better teams in their conference.
- 25:04Speaker 1: But I don't know what they are now. I'm gonna
- 25:07Speaker 1: lean to Marquette slightly in this one. The money did
- 25:10Speaker 1: drive Marquette all the way up from four to seven.
- 25:13Speaker 1: I don't know if there's an injury involved here or what,
- 25:15Speaker 1: because the money looks like it's actually now coming back
- 25:17Speaker 1: on Maryland, so there might be a different a difference
- 25:20Speaker 1: of opinion in this one, where it looks like once
- 25:22Speaker 1: it hit seven, which is a key number, some money
- 25:24Speaker 1: is starting to come back on Maryland sixty seven percent
- 25:27Speaker 1: of tickets and sixty two percent of the cash on Marquette.
- 25:31Speaker 1: I agree with Marquette probably Obviously, I would prefer to
- 25:34Speaker 1: lay the lower number on Marquette. If I was gonna
- 25:36Speaker 1: do it at seven, I mean, I don't want it anyway,
- 25:40Speaker 1: But at seven I don't think I would really want it,
- 25:41Speaker 1: although I do lean to Marquette. Just generally. You I
- 25:45Speaker 1: see at Chicago State, Chicago State, and they just consider
- 25:48Speaker 1: themselves to be a very little brother in the Chicago area.
- 25:53Speaker 1: And they're actually in a conference now. They're in the
- 25:55Speaker 1: Northeast Conference, Northeastern Conference, even though they're in Chicago. Do
- 26:01Speaker 1: what you will with that information, I guess. But Chicago
- 26:04Speaker 1: wasn't independent for a while. They haven't faced an easy schedule.
- 26:07Speaker 1: They played to Paul, Saint Louis, and Butler all on
- 26:10Speaker 1: the road. Saint Louis does still have cream Kareem Abdul Jabbar,
- 26:13Speaker 1: by the way I looked, he is still there. But
- 26:17Speaker 1: this was not easy, man. Now Chicago State has their
- 26:19Speaker 1: home opener and it's against a big brother to them
- 26:22Speaker 1: at Chicago, which is the University of Illinois. At Chicago
- 26:26Speaker 1: and then Chicago State continues their brutal stretch of games
- 26:30Speaker 1: after this with Minnesota and Iowa. So I think they're
- 26:33Speaker 1: gonna show up and want to get this game, man,
- 26:35Speaker 1: if they can. I mean, Chicago State's not gonna win
- 26:37Speaker 1: many games at all this year. I don't know. I
- 26:40Speaker 1: don't even know if this game is gonna be winnable,
- 26:42Speaker 1: but I would lean to them Illinois Chicago has been
- 26:46Speaker 1: kind of all over the place. They had to go
- 26:48Speaker 1: out to Oregon State already, and then they came back.
- 26:50Speaker 1: They bounced back nicely with a win over a Division
- 26:53Speaker 1: two team or whatever. Now they got to go on
- 26:55Speaker 1: the road again to Chicago State, although it is still
- 26:57Speaker 1: in Chicago. They got some newtro site game, some tournament
- 27:01Speaker 1: game or something against High Point up next, and High
- 27:03Speaker 1: Points pretty good the last couple of years. So I
- 27:06Speaker 1: do think U I S might being in a little
- 27:09Speaker 1: bit of a bad spot here. So I do like
- 27:10Speaker 1: Chicago State in this one. They're getting ten and a
- 27:13Speaker 1: half points down for twelve and a half. I would
- 27:16Speaker 1: probably still take that if I was gonna play that game.
- 27:18Speaker 1: I do lean that way. Chicago State is just they're
- 27:22Speaker 1: a really bad team, though you just got to be
- 27:25Speaker 1: aware of that. Maybe even too bad for me for
- 27:27Speaker 1: me to want to actually give them out as a
- 27:29Speaker 1: play stone Hill at Loyola Maryland. My guys is from
- 27:35Speaker 1: Stonehill Man in east eastern mass They're also in the
- 27:39Speaker 1: Northeast Conference after they moved up to Division one. I
- 27:43Speaker 1: like Loyola Maryland in this one. Stone Hill played yesterday
- 27:47Speaker 1: at Fairfield and they lost the game in overtime. Stone
- 27:51Speaker 1: Hill took Fairfield to the limit and stone Hill was
- 27:53Speaker 1: an underdog in this game. Fairfield is actually I think
- 27:56Speaker 1: kind of one of the better teams in the matt
- 27:57Speaker 1: Ac Conference right now. Good game from Stonehill Man. I
- 28:02Speaker 1: mean they didn't go away, they were losing the game
- 28:04Speaker 1: in the second half, they came back, they actually took
- 28:06Speaker 1: the lead later in the game. Game went into overtime
- 28:09Speaker 1: and they fell short. And now with no rest, I
- 28:12Speaker 1: don't love stone Hill in this game because of that.
- 28:15Speaker 1: They do play Iowa State next, so it's possible they
- 28:18Speaker 1: look ahead to that and maybe they just don't take
- 28:20Speaker 1: Loyola Maryland seriously, although I mean Stonehill is so bad,
- 28:25Speaker 1: like how can they how can they not take anybody?
- 28:27Speaker 1: How can they not take another team seriously? Loyola is
- 28:31Speaker 1: coming off losing as a favorite at homes nj T
- 28:34Speaker 1: on Tuesday ten and a half point favorites nj T.
- 28:37Speaker 1: They're not good, and Loyola Maryland somehow lost this game.
- 28:43Speaker 1: I don't exactly know how. I mean, they were winning
- 28:45Speaker 1: this game in the second half. They should have had
- 28:46Speaker 1: the game put away, but NJT didn't go away. N
- 28:51Speaker 1: j i T won despite having a terrible shooting performance. Again,
- 28:54Speaker 1: I don't see how Loyal and Maryland lost this game
- 28:57Speaker 1: despite winning the shooting percentages. Although both teams are bad
- 29:00Speaker 1: ad shooting. Which low scoring game. I mean, the underdog
- 29:04Speaker 1: is gonna be able to hang in that game more
- 29:06Speaker 1: often when it's low scoring. But I think you're looking
- 29:09Speaker 1: at a bounce back spot for Loyola and now. So
- 29:11Speaker 1: I do like Loyola in this game. My only hesitation
- 29:14Speaker 1: is that Loyal Maryland not to be confused with Loyola
- 29:18Speaker 1: Chicago's sister jan or Loyola mary Mount out in California.
- 29:23Speaker 1: But my hesitation here is that Stonehill is already familiar
- 29:26Speaker 1: with this venue because this is a neutral site game.
- 29:29Speaker 1: It's actually in Fairfield. I think Fairfield is hosting this,
- 29:32Speaker 1: so stone Hill actually played here yesterday, So yes, Stonehill
- 29:36Speaker 1: played yesterday, but they don't have to travel because they're
- 29:38Speaker 1: playing in the same arena, I'm pretty sure. So that
- 29:41Speaker 1: is the one thing that makes this a little bit
- 29:44Speaker 1: less bad for stone Hill here. Yes, it was in
- 29:48Speaker 1: the same arena, So still lean to Loyola Maryland though,
- 29:52Speaker 1: But if you want Loyola Maryland, they've already gone up
- 29:55Speaker 1: from a two point favorite to a seven and a
- 29:56Speaker 1: half point favorite. I mean, come on, man, I mean,
- 29:59Speaker 1: this is what happened in these college basketball games. I mean,
- 30:01Speaker 1: it's gone through the key number seven and a half.
- 30:03Speaker 1: It's unplayable at seven and a half, dude, I mean,
- 30:06Speaker 1: at two it could have been a stealing. This is
- 30:09Speaker 1: what happens, man, Like when I was handicapping these games
- 30:11Speaker 1: last night, like back when you know, when I was
- 30:15Speaker 1: betting and actually betting these games and had liquid money,
- 30:18Speaker 1: like you'd want to get on some of those games
- 30:19Speaker 1: right away and hope that you beat the line move,
- 30:22Speaker 1: because at seven and a half, it looks like money's
- 30:24Speaker 1: coming back on stone Hill. Fifty percent of tickets, ninety
- 30:26Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on stone Hill. I mean,
- 30:29Speaker 1: that's just too much of a line move. Through the
- 30:30Speaker 1: key number seven. I do think Stonehill will lose that game, though,
- 30:35Speaker 1: So if you want to take Loyal and Maryland and
- 30:38Speaker 1: like put them in a money line parlay with something
- 30:40Speaker 1: else to try to get a better price, I would
- 30:43Speaker 1: I would not knock you for doing that. Butler at SMU.
- 30:48Speaker 1: Interesting game between a Big East team and a Big
- 30:53Speaker 1: twelve team, I believe right. Oh no, acc dude, SMU
- 30:57Speaker 1: seems like this should be in the Big twelve, but
- 30:59Speaker 1: they're in the ACS. SMU. They're after a three to
- 31:02Speaker 1: zero start. They haven't been tested yet. This is gonna
- 31:04Speaker 1: be their most difficult opponents so far, but they're at home.
- 31:07Speaker 1: Butler also has not been tested yet either. Although IU
- 31:11Speaker 1: Indy does like to run the pace, but Butler was
- 31:14Speaker 1: able to beat them easily anyway. Now, this is Butler's
- 31:17Speaker 1: first true road game, having to go down to Dallas, Texas.
- 31:21Speaker 1: So I would lean at SMU in this one, just
- 31:23Speaker 1: based on that. The money is agreeing with this one.
- 31:25Speaker 1: SMU up from six to seven. Obviously, if you want SMU,
- 31:29Speaker 1: try to find the best price, which would in this
- 31:31Speaker 1: case I guess would be laying seven. Uh. Sixty percent
- 31:34Speaker 1: of tickets are on Butler. Butler getting the public action
- 31:37Speaker 1: here because Butler just kind of has the better name
- 31:40Speaker 1: in college basketball. Fifty three percent of the cash though
- 31:43Speaker 1: on SMU, as bakers are telling you SMU is the
- 31:46Speaker 1: better team, So yeah, I'm not gonna lean against that.
- 31:52Speaker 1: BC is going to Temple, my BC guys who are
- 31:55Speaker 1: just no good at this point. Temple's already in Philadelphia.
- 31:59Speaker 1: They did just smack down their little brother in Philadelphia LaSalle.
- 32:04Speaker 1: Now Temple's got BC coming in BC one and two
- 32:09Speaker 1: so far, and BC is coming off an ugly loss
- 32:11Speaker 1: at home to Central Connecticut. BC was I think around
- 32:15Speaker 1: a ten point favorite in that game, and BC was
- 32:17Speaker 1: winning the game by eight or nine points late in
- 32:19Speaker 1: the game and they blew the game, like really ridiculous.
- 32:22Speaker 1: It was a low scoring game, so the underdog will
- 32:25Speaker 1: hang around when it's a low scoring game. And BC
- 32:27Speaker 1: actually took the loss, which is ridiculous. So I would
- 32:32Speaker 1: kind of need to taking the points with BC in
- 32:34Speaker 1: this one of the Temple looks like they're taking some
- 32:36Speaker 1: of the money up from one and a half to
- 32:37Speaker 1: two and a half. They are public though, eighty nine
- 32:39Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety six percent of the cash on Temple. Yeah,
- 32:44Speaker 1: I have a slightlying to BC. Just I think Temple's
- 32:48Speaker 1: blowout win over Lasal could be pretty satisfying smacking down
- 32:52Speaker 1: your little brother like that in BC, a little bit angry,
- 32:54Speaker 1: and getting to get out of home after that horrendous
- 32:56Speaker 1: home loss. So those are my thoughts on that. I
- 33:01Speaker 1: thought there were some other games that were in some
- 33:03Speaker 1: neutral sits here too, but I don't know. Trying to
- 33:07Speaker 1: get through all this, let's see, and I had a
- 33:09Speaker 1: few other games. Let me I'm looking at my long
- 33:11Speaker 1: list here to see if there were other games that
- 33:13Speaker 1: I was gonna talk about besides the ones that I'm
- 33:16Speaker 1: actually playing, which I have five. All right, I'm looking now.
- 33:20Speaker 1: I can kind of see them. I'm skipping a bunch
- 33:22Speaker 1: of these though, as well. So just next up, we're
- 33:25Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna give out a play here in the
- 33:27Speaker 1: four PM slate here, Nate, what's up? Man? All right?
- 33:32Speaker 1: We're gonna lay the points with Boise again here. Boise
- 33:35Speaker 1: treated me well when we did that before, after they
- 33:37Speaker 1: came off that inexplicable loss to a Division two team.
- 33:41Speaker 1: But I like Boise State in this one. This is
- 33:43Speaker 1: against Montana State. Montana State is a significantly worse team
- 33:46Speaker 1: than Boise. I mean that's up front. Kent Bump still
- 33:49Speaker 1: has Boise as like a top sixty team in all
- 33:52Speaker 1: of college basketball. Montana State he has like somewhere in
- 33:55Speaker 1: the two hundreds. So this is definitely a mismatch. Boise
- 33:59Speaker 1: does like to play slow, though, so laying points with
- 34:02Speaker 1: Boise not necessarily great. Although they treated me well when
- 34:06Speaker 1: I did it the first time, and this line isn't
- 34:08Speaker 1: that big. The money looks like it's coming in towards
- 34:10Speaker 1: Montana State, and I do not agree with that. Boise
- 34:13Speaker 1: down from eighteen and a half to fifteen and a half.
- 34:15Speaker 1: I saw fifteen out there, sixty seven percent of ticket,
- 34:18Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of the cash on Montana State. Right now,
- 34:20Speaker 1: we do have a pretty low total at one hundred
- 34:22Speaker 1: and forty nine, which is expected with a matchup like this.
- 34:26Speaker 1: But I still thin Boise State is the significantly better
- 34:29Speaker 1: team and in a good spot to get this done.
- 34:32Speaker 1: Montana State, they've been all over the place. Man, Yeah,
- 34:35Speaker 1: that means they're battle tested. But and they played well
- 34:37Speaker 1: against Colorado, so people are gonna put stock into that.
- 34:40Speaker 1: Although Colorado, I mean, I know they won for me yesterday,
- 34:43Speaker 1: but I don't think Colorado is that great now. Montana
- 34:46Speaker 1: On Wednesday, they went out to the Pacific Coast. They
- 34:48Speaker 1: played Stanford. Even though Stanford might not be that good,
- 34:51Speaker 1: they're undefeated right now, and they're an ACC team, and
- 34:54Speaker 1: they were fourteen and a half point favorite, and Montana
- 34:57Speaker 1: State had chances to win this game. Dude, Montana State
- 35:00Speaker 1: was winning this game with eight minutes left in the game.
- 35:03Speaker 1: They're winning by multiple possessions. They were still winning with
- 35:05Speaker 1: seven and a half minutes left, with under seven minutes ago,
- 35:08Speaker 1: they were still winning, and the game was tied with
- 35:10Speaker 1: five minutes left, and then Montana State just fell short.
- 35:13Speaker 1: And in the end, they put up a huge effort here. Man.
- 35:16Speaker 1: Now Montana State has to go from Stanford, Northern California
- 35:20Speaker 1: all the way up to Boise. After almost pulling off
- 35:23Speaker 1: that op set, I just don't think they're gonna be
- 35:25Speaker 1: able to put in another effort like this, even though
- 35:27Speaker 1: Boise is a pretty big name as well. I just
- 35:30Speaker 1: I don't like it at all. And Boise the record
- 35:33Speaker 1: is still being kind of impacted by that loss to
- 35:36Speaker 1: Hawaii Pacific, which was ugly. But Boise got an easy
- 35:39Speaker 1: win for US against Utah Valley. They bounced back nicely
- 35:43Speaker 1: Montana State. I mean, I don't know how they compare
- 35:45Speaker 1: a Utah Valley, to be honest, I think they're probably
- 35:47Speaker 1: pretty comparable Montana State two forty first in the country.
- 35:51Speaker 1: They do also like to play slow, though, so this
- 35:53Speaker 1: is definitely gonna be a lower scoring game. He's got
- 35:57Speaker 1: a Utah Valley significantly better than Montana State at one
- 36:00Speaker 1: hundred and nineteenth in the country. So I don't know
- 36:03Speaker 1: how much weight you should put into Kempbum's rankings really,
- 36:06Speaker 1: but we laid like, we laid around the same number
- 36:10Speaker 1: with Boise against Utah Valley and they won easily, And
- 36:13Speaker 1: now we're getting basically the same number against a weaker
- 36:16Speaker 1: Montana State team in a bad spot. Yeah, I mean,
- 36:20Speaker 1: to me, it seems like it's a cheap price on
- 36:22Speaker 1: Boise and Boise staying at home here as well. I
- 36:25Speaker 1: know they have Wichita next. Wichita kind of stacked the
- 36:29Speaker 1: roster this year and they're off to a good start
- 36:31Speaker 1: a though they faced a pretty weak slate of games
- 36:34Speaker 1: so far, so I don't really I'm not really gonna
- 36:35Speaker 1: say that's a look ahead for Boise there because Wichita
- 36:38Speaker 1: hasn't really done anything in the last few years. So
- 36:40Speaker 1: we're gonna lay it with Boise in that one. Okay,
- 36:47Speaker 1: other games that I might have wanted to talk about,
- 36:49Speaker 1: we'll give on another play here because it's there in
- 36:52Speaker 1: the four pm slate. We're gonna take Fairly Dickenson, our
- 36:55Speaker 1: good friends at Fairly Dickenson, who pulled off the upset
- 36:59Speaker 1: against Burdue, the turnament that's all this program is known
- 37:02Speaker 1: for at this point. Fairley Dickinson was easily the worst
- 37:05Speaker 1: team in that entire tournament field and the shortest team,
- 37:09Speaker 1: and they somehow beat Zach Edy and Zach Edy had
- 37:12Speaker 1: a rebound go off of his face late in the
- 37:14Speaker 1: game too. I don't know how that happened, man, I
- 37:17Speaker 1: still don't know, but it did not bust my bracket.
- 37:20Speaker 1: I think I had Purdue losing in the sweet sixteen
- 37:23Speaker 1: in my bracket that year, so I didn't really care.
- 37:28Speaker 1: This spot I think looks decent for Fairly Dickinson. I mean,
- 37:31Speaker 1: people are gonna see that they're zero and three and
- 37:34Speaker 1: that nj T is two and one, and people are
- 37:37Speaker 1: gonna want to go, oh, my god, like, how like,
- 37:40Speaker 1: how are we only laying two and a half with
- 37:42Speaker 1: with nj T here, right, it looks too easy to
- 37:45Speaker 1: do that, and the line did go up from one
- 37:47Speaker 1: and a half to two and a half. It looks
- 37:48Speaker 1: so easy to do that with a two and one
- 37:50Speaker 1: team against a winless team here. But you gotta look
- 37:54Speaker 1: at who these teams have played. Man, early in the season,
- 37:56Speaker 1: I apologize for shrinking the window there, trying to get it,
- 38:01Speaker 1: you know, in a better uh you're trying to get
- 38:05Speaker 1: You're trying to get a better windows set up there.
- 38:07Speaker 1: I don't know, Fairley Dickinson, though, look at who they've
- 38:09Speaker 1: played this year, Man, they played Iowa, staying on the
- 38:12Speaker 1: road in Texas on the road. I mean, do you
- 38:14Speaker 1: really expect them to have a good record after two?
- 38:17Speaker 1: Those are two of their three games, and the other
- 38:20Speaker 1: game was a more winnable game at Saint Peter's, but
- 38:23Speaker 1: still Saint Peter's was a favorite, so FDU was not
- 38:26Speaker 1: expected to win that game. So they're a very expected
- 38:29Speaker 1: Owen three. And it does mean they're pretty battle test.
- 38:31Speaker 1: And I know this is a fourth straight road game
- 38:34Speaker 1: and that's not that easy. But they're coming back to uh,
- 38:37Speaker 1: New Jersey, which I believe is where FDU actually is
- 38:40Speaker 1: in New Jersey, so at least they're in their home
- 38:43Speaker 1: state here. I don't know which of these teams consider
- 38:45Speaker 1: themselves to be the little or brother. Although NJT went
- 38:48Speaker 1: from being unaffiliated to being in the American East, so
- 38:51Speaker 1: they're actually in a conference that's considered to be better
- 38:54Speaker 1: than the Northeast Conference of Fairley. Dickinson might play with
- 38:56Speaker 1: a chip on their shoulder for that reason. And nj
- 38:59Speaker 1: T is the team that beat Loyal and Maryland in
- 39:02Speaker 1: that game that I was talking about where they pulled
- 39:04Speaker 1: off that upset in Maryland of a ten and a
- 39:06Speaker 1: half point magnitude there. And NJT shot terribly in the game.
- 39:11Speaker 1: Although I know if you shoot terribly and you still
- 39:13Speaker 1: win the game, that's a side that you actually could
- 39:17Speaker 1: have won by even more. But this is a big
- 39:20Speaker 1: upset for NJT, man, I mean they again, they pull
- 39:23Speaker 1: up a double digit upset. Now, yeah, they're coming back home.
- 39:26Speaker 1: They're on and one at home, though they did lose
- 39:29Speaker 1: to Fairfield at home, so njtea not off to a
- 39:31Speaker 1: good start at home. I mean, these teams are both
- 39:34Speaker 1: really bad, so I mean they're teams that you generally
- 39:38Speaker 1: don't want to really have anything to do with. But
- 39:40Speaker 1: in this spot, we're gonna take the points with FDU.
- 39:43Speaker 1: I just think that it's one of these games where
- 39:45Speaker 1: the line makes it look too easy to take one side.
- 39:49Speaker 1: I mean, you got to look at the strength of schedule, which,
- 39:50Speaker 1: of course Fairley Dickinson is a way stronger strength to schedule.
- 39:55Speaker 1: Ken Bum does have them terrible though, like in the
- 39:57Speaker 1: bottom fifteen in all the country has them is a
- 40:01Speaker 1: pretty unlucky team though, and I'm guessing he has. Nj
- 40:04Speaker 1: T is lucky, yes, so he has j T twentieth
- 40:06Speaker 1: in the luck Index and two hundred and eighty fourth
- 40:09Speaker 1: strength of schedule, whereas for Fairley Dickinson, who's only like
- 40:12Speaker 1: five ranking spots lower than NJT. He's got them as
- 40:16Speaker 1: having the twenty first most difficult schedules so far and
- 40:19Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty sixth in luck. So basically NJIT
- 40:23Speaker 1: is overperforming fairly. Dickinson's underperforming fairly. Dickinson does have the
- 40:28Speaker 1: one of the worst defenses though, so something you do
- 40:30Speaker 1: have to worry about. NJT does have the better defense,
- 40:33Speaker 1: but uh, I still like the spot man, and yes,
- 40:39Speaker 1: NJAT does play slow and fairly. Dickinson likes to play fast,
- 40:42Speaker 1: so there is a little bit of a pacing contrast there.
- 40:45Speaker 1: But neither of these teams are very good, so I
- 40:47Speaker 1: don't know if I see one team necessarily dominating the
- 40:50Speaker 1: pace in this game. All right, what else am I
- 40:54Speaker 1: gonna say here? Uh? Pacific and cal State. This is
- 40:57Speaker 1: an interesting game to just talk about, just because Pacific
- 41:02Speaker 1: they went to Nevada and they hung within that game.
- 41:08Speaker 1: They as thirteen nine point underdogs. They were, they only
- 41:10Speaker 1: lost by one, and they could have won this game
- 41:12Speaker 1: against Nevada. They bounced back against Long Beach State, but
- 41:16Speaker 1: they were a huge favorite in this game against Long
- 41:19Speaker 1: Beach State. So Pacific coming off that game against Nevada,
- 41:22Speaker 1: you kind of expected Pacific to not do as well
- 41:25Speaker 1: at home, and yeah, that is what happened. They almost
- 41:28Speaker 1: lost as double digit favorite. So after they almost won
- 41:31Speaker 1: as double digit dogs, they came back home and almost
- 41:33Speaker 1: lost as double digit favorite. So now I think they're
- 41:36Speaker 1: in a spot where now they're staying in California here,
- 41:39Speaker 1: even though they're going on the road, I think they're
- 41:41Speaker 1: actually going to refocused spot, like a bounce back spot here.
- 41:44Speaker 1: Cal State Fullerton not as good this year. I know
- 41:48Speaker 1: this is their first Division IE home game though, so
- 41:50Speaker 1: they might still get up for it. But I think
- 41:52Speaker 1: Pacific they're the better team and they're in the bounce
- 41:55Speaker 1: back spot here, so I would lay the points to Pacific.
- 41:58Speaker 1: Of all, the line has dropped from seven and a
- 41:59Speaker 1: half to what do I know, man, Maybe I know
- 42:02Speaker 1: nothing about college basketball, so the money is kind of
- 42:06Speaker 1: or the line movement at least is kind of saying
- 42:08Speaker 1: to actually take the points with cal State Fullerton. But
- 42:12Speaker 1: I wouldn't do it. I would lay it with Pacific,
- 42:14Speaker 1: but not gonna be one that I want to get
- 42:16Speaker 1: involved in it all. Yukon and BYU is the big
- 42:21Speaker 1: game of the day, man, getting into the night slate
- 42:23Speaker 1: here Primetime on Fox. This is a huge game, and
- 42:26Speaker 1: this is in a neutral site game. This is in
- 42:29Speaker 1: Boston at the TD Godden, the titty Godden. No, I'm
- 42:33Speaker 1: not going to this game. Although I saw Yukon play
- 42:36Speaker 1: there in the tournament a couple of years ago. BYU
- 42:39Speaker 1: was actually in their region that year, and I had
- 42:41Speaker 1: BYU getting to that stage of the tournament, but they
- 42:44Speaker 1: lost in the first round, I think, to Ducane. So
- 42:47Speaker 1: BYU was out and Illinois was in. But anyway, Yukon.
- 42:53Speaker 1: I can tell you because I was at those tournament games,
- 42:56Speaker 1: there's gonna be a huge Yukon contingent in Boston, So
- 43:01Speaker 1: this is basically a semi home game for Yukon. I
- 43:03Speaker 1: will point that out. They're gonna have a huge fan
- 43:05Speaker 1: base in this game. I mean, the crowd was very,
- 43:08Speaker 1: very Yukon heavy in those tournament games, so that's gonna
- 43:11Speaker 1: happen again here. Most likely, maybe not to that extent
- 43:14Speaker 1: because it's not the tournament, but still they're gonna have
- 43:16Speaker 1: a big fan base showing up for this. Yukon has
- 43:20Speaker 1: not been tested at all yet, though they've played a
- 43:22Speaker 1: really really weak schedule so far, so this is obviously
- 43:26Speaker 1: their most difficult opponent so far, whereas BYU they have
- 43:29Speaker 1: faces somewhat more difficult schedules because they did face Villanova.
- 43:33Speaker 1: Even though Villanova is a little bit down, Villanova is
- 43:36Speaker 1: still a big East team there, I think, a mediocre team,
- 43:40Speaker 1: not terrible, so BYU is more battle tested. But now
- 43:43Speaker 1: BYU they're having to travel to the East Coast to
- 43:45Speaker 1: the Eastern time zone for the first time this year.
- 43:48Speaker 1: That's not gonna be easy to do. I think BYU
- 43:51Speaker 1: is overrated as well. Ken Bomb will tell you that
- 43:54Speaker 1: as well. Ken Bomb is Byu eighteenth in the country
- 43:57Speaker 1: even the rank seventh. He has Yukon sixth, So Yukon
- 44:01Speaker 1: is more appropriately ranked right now. Yukon's legit. I think
- 44:04Speaker 1: Byu is a little bit overrated here, so that also
- 44:08Speaker 1: makes me want to look towards Yukon here, even though
- 44:11Speaker 1: I know they haven't played anybody. I would lay it
- 44:14Speaker 1: with Yukon, But the line's already up from four and
- 44:16Speaker 1: a half to six and a half now, so you're
- 44:17Speaker 1: losing some value on that number there below seven. I mean,
- 44:23Speaker 1: still decent if you're getting on the on the correct
- 44:25Speaker 1: side of the number seven at least seventy three percent
- 44:28Speaker 1: of tickets ninety six percent of the cask for me,
- 44:29Speaker 1: you know, on Yukon, it would not surprise me at
- 44:32Speaker 1: all if you come wins this game even by double
- 44:34Speaker 1: digits here, I would I would lay it with Yukon
- 44:36Speaker 1: if I was gonna play it, even though they do
- 44:40Speaker 1: play slow. But that's the other thing. Byu typically does
- 44:43Speaker 1: like to play fast, so though I don't know if
- 44:45Speaker 1: they're actually doing that this year or not, but Yukon
- 44:47Speaker 1: they play really, really slow. And if they do that,
- 44:49Speaker 1: and BYU doesn't want to do that, and Yukon is
- 44:51Speaker 1: basically the de facto home team here, Yukon could throw
- 44:54Speaker 1: them out of the type of game that they want
- 44:56Speaker 1: to play too. So yeah, no, I'm not going to
- 45:01Speaker 1: that the titty God And yeah, Mark Lawrence Lakes BC
- 45:07Speaker 1: in college football, I don't disagree with that one either.
- 45:11Speaker 1: I talked about that one last night. It's kind of
- 45:12Speaker 1: a weird spot for Georgia Tech. And it is somewhat
- 45:16Speaker 1: cold up here now, although it's not snowing or anything
- 45:18Speaker 1: like that, but it's in the forties up here today,
- 45:22Speaker 1: So maybe not ideal for one of those Southern teams.
- 45:25Speaker 1: Oklahoma Nebraska. We got a big game here between these
- 45:29Speaker 1: two on Big Ten Network, So Big ten Network carrying
- 45:33Speaker 1: a game with one Big Ten team against an SEC team.
- 45:36Speaker 1: This game is a neutral site game as well in
- 45:38Speaker 1: Sioux Falls, South Dakota, which probably is the site. Probably
- 45:44Speaker 1: favors Nebraska a little bitcause Nebraska is closer to it
- 45:47Speaker 1: than Oklahoma is. Nebraska I think has a big contingent
- 45:51Speaker 1: in that area too, so they probably have more of
- 45:54Speaker 1: a crowd here. Oklahoma has faced one difficult team. They
- 45:59Speaker 1: had to go up to Gonzaga. I mean, no shame
- 46:01Speaker 1: in losing a Gonzaga. They're a very good team. Oklahoma
- 46:04Speaker 1: having to do that on the road that was not
- 46:06Speaker 1: easy for them. They've beaten two cupcakes otherwise, so not
- 46:09Speaker 1: a whole lot to read into with Oklahoma. Here. Nebraska
- 46:12Speaker 1: is three and zero. I don't know why I just
- 46:14Speaker 1: downloaded this website for me, Fuck you, Firefox. Nebraska hasn't
- 46:19Speaker 1: faced anybody of note yet, and this is gonna be
- 46:22Speaker 1: their first game outside of home, I believe. So Nebraska
- 46:25Speaker 1: has played all home games so far, so Oklahoma is
- 46:28Speaker 1: more battle tested and they're more road tested. So that's
- 46:32Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of a concern if you do
- 46:33Speaker 1: like Nebraska. Here, you know, Nebraska has flipped from one
- 46:39Speaker 1: point dodge a one point favorite here, sixty two percent
- 46:41Speaker 1: take it, sixty four percent of the cash on Nebraska
- 46:44Speaker 1: money someone in the getting on Nebraska, though it's still
- 46:47Speaker 1: a pick the winner situation. I probably lean towards Oklahoma though,
- 46:51Speaker 1: I mean, again, it's Nebraska's first time playing outside of
- 46:54Speaker 1: their home stadium. I'm pretty sure Oklahoma. Again, they do
- 46:57Speaker 1: have one game that did battle to them a little bit,
- 47:00Speaker 1: so that would kind of be my opinion in that one.
- 47:05Speaker 1: All right, okay, let's give out another play here. I
- 47:09Speaker 1: don't have that many left. But next up we're gonna
- 47:12Speaker 1: take the points with Bethune Cookman. I have one other
- 47:14Speaker 1: play besides this one. This is gonna be a fade
- 47:17Speaker 1: of Dayton. I think Dayton is in a sandwich spot man,
- 47:20Speaker 1: which is why we're doing this. I actually you can
- 47:22Speaker 1: get twenty and a half now, so scratch that hold
- 47:25Speaker 1: on the number moving against me as usual, but we'll
- 47:28Speaker 1: take the better number here giving it out right now.
- 47:31Speaker 1: You can get twenty and a half on Bethune Cookman now,
- 47:34Speaker 1: dating up from seventeen and a half to twenty and
- 47:35Speaker 1: a half. They're public sixty seven percent of tickets, although
- 47:38Speaker 1: seventy two percent of the cash on them. But public
- 47:41Speaker 1: is kind of relative because I don't think the public
- 47:43Speaker 1: is really even looking at these games in college bath
- 47:46Speaker 1: They're not going deep into the college basketball board when
- 47:49Speaker 1: there's football going on. Let's just put it that way.
- 47:51Speaker 1: So the ticket percentage is actually a more indicative of
- 47:55Speaker 1: professional money in these college basketball ones right now, unless
- 47:58Speaker 1: you see a very very wide varying. But I just
- 48:01Speaker 1: I'm going with my situational handicapping here. Man, I know
- 48:04Speaker 1: Bethune Cookman is bad, but they're not really like this
- 48:08Speaker 1: total like dormat, Like they're two hundred and twenty first
- 48:11Speaker 1: in the country. According to kemp Bum they're one of
- 48:13Speaker 1: his most unlucky teams in the country at three hundred
- 48:15Speaker 1: and fifty first in Luckso that means Bethune Cookman is
- 48:19Speaker 1: actually better than the record looks and fifteenth in strength
- 48:23Speaker 1: to schedule, So Bethune Cookman is very battle tested at
- 48:27Speaker 1: this point, whereas he has Dayton much less battle tests
- 48:31Speaker 1: right now. Even though yeah, they're a better team, there's
- 48:33Speaker 1: sixty ninth in the country, but that's not great. I
- 48:36Speaker 1: mean they're not They're not the Dayton of the last
- 48:39Speaker 1: few years where Dayton was like a tournament team or whatever,
- 48:41Speaker 1: Like I mean, they couldn't make themselves a tournament team
- 48:44Speaker 1: this year. But they're not really one of those teams
- 48:47Speaker 1: like Dayton was like breaching like you know, the top
- 48:49Speaker 1: twenty five with the last couple of seasons or a
- 48:52Speaker 1: couple of seasons ago. That's not the case. Now. He
- 48:56Speaker 1: does have Dayton unlucky as well, but not as unlucky
- 48:59Speaker 1: as a Bethune Cookman and Dayton just hasn't faced many
- 49:02Speaker 1: difficult teams. He had a two hundred and sixty fourth
- 49:04Speaker 1: and straight the schedule. The other thing is Dayton plays slow,
- 49:08Speaker 1: which I think Bethune Cookman also does. Bethune Cookman likes
- 49:12Speaker 1: to play mid tempo. Really Dayton plays slow, but playing
- 49:17Speaker 1: slow is a big favorite. It is not really something
- 49:19Speaker 1: that you want out of a favorite. And I do
- 49:21Speaker 1: not like the spot for Dayton because they just came
- 49:23Speaker 1: off a huge game against Cincinnati. That's an Ohio rivalry
- 49:27Speaker 1: between Dayton and Cincinnati, and Dayton took their first loss
- 49:30Speaker 1: of the season, so I don't like them coming off
- 49:33Speaker 1: of that. Even though it was a double digit loss,
- 49:35Speaker 1: that's still a game they get up for man, that
- 49:37Speaker 1: was still a big game. The game was still fairly
- 49:40Speaker 1: close later in the game, at least in the second half.
- 49:44Speaker 1: Dayton was close in the final like ten minutes of
- 49:47Speaker 1: the game. They're coming off that they have to come
- 49:49Speaker 1: back home and get this ugly Bethune Cookman team that
- 49:51Speaker 1: they probably won't care about beating by margin, and they
- 49:54Speaker 1: got to play Marquette on the road on Wednesday, So
- 49:57Speaker 1: this is a sandwich spot. I mean Marquette, a big
- 49:59Speaker 1: East team. That's a bigger game as well for Bethune Cookman.
- 50:03Speaker 1: I think they will want to get up for this.
- 50:05Speaker 1: And Bethune Cookman, like I said, they're battle tests, and
- 50:07Speaker 1: they already went to Auburn. It actually took them to overtime.
- 50:11Speaker 1: I mean, I think Auburn just wasn't paying attention first
- 50:13Speaker 1: game of the season, kind of a weird outline. Of course,
- 50:16Speaker 1: I went with Auburn in the game after that, and
- 50:17Speaker 1: I faded Bethune Cookman after that, and I got them
- 50:20Speaker 1: both right as Bethune Cookman got drilled by Miami in
- 50:24Speaker 1: the next game. I'm pretty sure I gave out Miami
- 50:25Speaker 1: in that one and Auburn in their next game. But
- 50:28Speaker 1: still that's I mean, Bethune Cookman is battle tested man
- 50:31Speaker 1: playing those two teams on the road. Even though Auburn's
- 50:34Speaker 1: not that Final four team they were last year, They're
- 50:36Speaker 1: still good and an SEC team in Miami, not great
- 50:41Speaker 1: right now, but still an ACC team. And whereas Dayton
- 50:45Speaker 1: took their first loss, so they could be a little
- 50:46Speaker 1: bit hung over, Like once you take your first loss,
- 50:48Speaker 1: I can kind of hang you over a little bit.
- 50:50Speaker 1: Bethune Cookman got to win. I mean, they weren't expected
- 50:54Speaker 1: to win either of their first two games. They came
- 50:56Speaker 1: back home and they beat a Division two team or whatever.
- 50:59Speaker 1: So what that will do, I think is it'll stop
- 51:02Speaker 1: there losing momentum. So I like that that'll give them
- 51:04Speaker 1: some momentum going out on the road. Dayton is a
- 51:07Speaker 1: big opponent for them, so I expect Bethune Cookman to
- 51:09Speaker 1: actually put in a decent performance in this one because
- 51:12Speaker 1: they know Dayton's pretty good, so they're gonna try to
- 51:16Speaker 1: get something done there Mans against Dayton. Pretend that it's
- 51:21Speaker 1: a first four game, because Dayton hosts those first four games,
- 51:25Speaker 1: which Bethune Cookman if they win their conference, that's where
- 51:28Speaker 1: they're gonna probably wind up in Dayton in one of
- 51:30Speaker 1: those first four games. So maybe this is practice for
- 51:33Speaker 1: that against a better team in Dayton. But yeah, I
- 51:38Speaker 1: think they'll step it up for Dayton. I think it's
- 51:39Speaker 1: a bad spot for Dayton. We'll take the points going
- 51:43Speaker 1: against the market reading some of these, but I like it.
- 51:47Speaker 1: Huge basketball dogs. I don't even like like huge dogs
- 51:51Speaker 1: like in the first day of the tournament. I'm not
- 51:53Speaker 1: taking giant dogs like. This is not something that I
- 51:55Speaker 1: do Dayton's gone under in all three games? That is
- 51:59Speaker 1: good to know. Yeah, so that is helpful for playing
- 52:02Speaker 1: an underdog here because Dayton plays a lot of low
- 52:04Speaker 1: scoring games. And this is one hundred and forty nine
- 52:06Speaker 1: on the total here, so the points are worth more
- 52:09Speaker 1: of the low total like that. All right, Gardner Webb
- 52:13Speaker 1: and Elon. This is a weird one where Elon looks
- 52:16Speaker 1: like they're kind of on the way up in the
- 52:17Speaker 1: Colonial I'm gonna keep calling it the Colonial Conference. Elon
- 52:21Speaker 1: did just take their first loss of the season, though,
- 52:23Speaker 1: which could hang them over a little bit, and it
- 52:24Speaker 1: was at Marshall. Elon umber eight and a half point
- 52:27Speaker 1: underdogs in this game they lost by seven. They had
- 52:30Speaker 1: a pretty decent performance in this game, though, I mean
- 52:32Speaker 1: they were kind of hanging around in this game the
- 52:35Speaker 1: whole time, although they did fall behind by about double
- 52:37Speaker 1: digits with like six or so minutes ago, seven minutes
- 52:40Speaker 1: to go whatever, so they weren't really like on the
- 52:42Speaker 1: cusp of maybe winning this game, but they still played
- 52:45Speaker 1: a decent game as an underdog. Now they gotta play
- 52:48Speaker 1: Gardner Webb, although this would be their first Division one
- 52:50Speaker 1: home game, but they got to play Miami after this,
- 52:53Speaker 1: so they might actually look ahead. So to me, it
- 52:55Speaker 1: looks like a little bit of a sandwich spot for
- 52:57Speaker 1: Elon here. Gardner Webb, they're not good their own three.
- 53:00Speaker 1: They're in an ugly conference. They have a new logo
- 53:03Speaker 1: this year, by the way, which is less colorful, so
- 53:06Speaker 1: I don't like that. It's more stylized, which I like
- 53:09Speaker 1: because I didn't like the way that their old bulldog
- 53:11Speaker 1: logo looked. It was just kind of boring, but they
- 53:13Speaker 1: had like red in it. Now they got rid of
- 53:15Speaker 1: the red. I don't know. I think this logo needs
- 53:18Speaker 1: some color, man, it needs some red, even though I
- 53:20Speaker 1: think the bulldog is a cooler style in their new logo.
- 53:23Speaker 1: But Gardner Webb, the reason why I would look towards
- 53:26Speaker 1: them is the fact that their own three is a
- 53:29Speaker 1: little bit misleading because they lost at Minnesota and at Clemson.
- 53:33Speaker 1: I mean, those are difficult games like bit Power Conference teams.
- 53:37Speaker 1: They weren't expected to win those games. Then what are
- 53:39Speaker 1: they doing. Their most recent game, their home opener, they
- 53:42Speaker 1: lost to a Division two team North Greenville, where there
- 53:46Speaker 1: wasn't even a line on this game. So that was
- 53:48Speaker 1: just a bad game for Gardner Webb. They got upset
- 53:51Speaker 1: in that game by lower tier team. I think they're
- 53:54Speaker 1: gonna be pissed and going up back out on the road.
- 53:57Speaker 1: They're battle tested. Now. Elon is the weak opponent that
- 54:00Speaker 1: they faced on the road so far at least, so
- 54:04Speaker 1: there at least there is that I like Gardner Webb
- 54:07Speaker 1: in this one, Elon's all the way up from nine
- 54:08Speaker 1: to thirteen. Here do I want to add another play
- 54:10Speaker 1: on this? I kind of do Elon, even though the
- 54:13Speaker 1: line initially moved them all the way up to thirteen.
- 54:15Speaker 1: We have seventy five percent of tickets on Elon, but
- 54:18Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the cash coming in a Gardner Web.
- 54:20Speaker 1: So it looks like it's really easy to move these
- 54:23Speaker 1: basketball lives. Man. So I think maybe this was a
- 54:25Speaker 1: setup where maybe some of the professional betters were like,
- 54:28Speaker 1: play Elon, move the line, and then we can get
- 54:31Speaker 1: Gardner Web at a better price. Here, let me look
- 54:33Speaker 1: at this, man, because Elon is certainly not a great team.
- 54:36Speaker 1: They're two hundred and fifty first in kemp BOM's rankings.
- 54:38Speaker 1: They're very high in as luck Get Index at thirty fifth,
- 54:41Speaker 1: so that's not a good indicator. It means that they're overperforming.
- 54:45Speaker 1: They're terrible defensively at three hundred and twenty third in
- 54:48Speaker 1: the country, so that's not good. They also play slow.
- 54:52Speaker 1: A slow based team that doesn't play deepens is not good,
- 54:56Speaker 1: even though Purdue. You could argue that Purdue qualifies as that,
- 54:59Speaker 1: although it's just that their offense is just more efficient
- 55:02Speaker 1: than their defense. So there are some things that I
- 55:06Speaker 1: definitely don't like about Elon here. But Thune Cookman, he
- 55:10Speaker 1: actually has not that far down from Elon. Wait where
- 55:13Speaker 1: does he have Elon again? No, he has been thood
- 55:15Speaker 1: or not. It's not the Thude Cookman. It's Gardner Webb.
- 55:17Speaker 1: I was like, what am I saying? Gardner Webb is
- 55:19Speaker 1: obviously the worst of these two teams. Yeah, he has
- 55:21Speaker 1: Gardner Webb at three or twenty third in the country,
- 55:24Speaker 1: but to face is the twelfth most difficult straight at
- 55:26Speaker 1: the schedule, they're two hundred and third in lock. They
- 55:29Speaker 1: play fast, so they're gonna get slowed down in this game.
- 55:32Speaker 1: But I think that's okay if you want to take points,
- 55:34Speaker 1: because obviously a slow down team laying points is difficult
- 55:38Speaker 1: to do. Like if the team wants to play at
- 55:39Speaker 1: a slower pace, points are gonna be more to premium
- 55:43Speaker 1: total in this game is has gone up to one
- 55:46Speaker 1: hundred and fifty four, although it's definitely not high. I'm
- 55:51Speaker 1: pretty tempted here, man. A lot of these Chempon metrics
- 55:54Speaker 1: kind of make me want to do this. Gardner Webb
- 55:55Speaker 1: is bad both offensively and defensively, but their defense is
- 55:59Speaker 1: actually better than Elon's. Even though Elon is the better
- 56:02Speaker 1: offensive team by a significant margin. Gardner Webb a lot
- 56:06Speaker 1: lower in the Luck Index to a two hundred third. Yeah,
- 56:10Speaker 1: you know what, at the better price, let's add it.
- 56:13Speaker 1: I'm gonna have man, I'm gonna have to put out
- 56:16Speaker 1: so many Instagram videos. Man, I dude, it's a lot
- 56:19Speaker 1: of work. I actually hate it. I like talking about
- 56:22Speaker 1: these games. I like doing this stream. I don't like
- 56:24Speaker 1: having to add the Instagram videos and just saying the
- 56:26Speaker 1: same thing that I said again. I don't like it.
- 56:29Speaker 1: But yeah, let's do it. This line's all over the
- 56:33Speaker 1: WAYCE you can get thirteen and a half with Gardner Webb.
- 56:35Speaker 1: I mean it's a high number. I mean I would
- 56:37Speaker 1: probably just take a little bit of a shot on
- 56:39Speaker 1: that one. All right, we'll add that. Let's add it
- 56:43Speaker 1: right now. So we're gonna have six college basketball plays now,
- 56:48Speaker 1: hopefully my college basketball is not way off. I feel
- 56:50Speaker 1: like again, I almost feel like I'm blind with college basketball,
- 56:53Speaker 1: and it just, you know, it feels I don't feel
- 56:56Speaker 1: confident with my college basketball at all. So I don't
- 56:59Speaker 1: love that. But Gardner Webb plus the thirteen and a half, like,
- 57:03Speaker 1: I do feel confident in college football, and sometimes my
- 57:06Speaker 1: college football goes haywire, though, so I feel really confident
- 57:09Speaker 1: with my college football today, though I left some of
- 57:11Speaker 1: my games off the card. Southern Utah at Omaha, Southern Utah.
- 57:18Speaker 1: They did finally bust their winless season by beating Bethesda,
- 57:23Speaker 1: easy win for Southern Utah. Southern Utah is not a
- 57:25Speaker 1: good team though, so even though yes, they did break
- 57:27Speaker 1: their losing momentum here, they're now having to go to Omaha,
- 57:32Speaker 1: so this is the furthest east that they've gone, and
- 57:34Speaker 1: they do have Gonzaga up on Monday in two days
- 57:37Speaker 1: and then Washington State, so Southern Utah not exactly in
- 57:40Speaker 1: a great spot, even though I know Omaha won the
- 57:42Speaker 1: summit last year and made the tournament, so maybe that
- 57:45Speaker 1: would keep Southern Utah a little bit focused here. But
- 57:47Speaker 1: I don't like the spot for them here as far
- 57:51Speaker 1: as Omaha is concerned. Yeah, they did just have a
- 57:54Speaker 1: big game against Colorado State back on Sunday, but they
- 57:57Speaker 1: kind of got blown out in the game, so it
- 57:59Speaker 1: wasn't a close game. They were not like hanging around
- 58:01Speaker 1: in this game and almost on the verge of an
- 58:03Speaker 1: upset or anything like that. Uh, Omaha is owned three
- 58:07Speaker 1: and Southern Utah is one and two, so it looks
- 58:09Speaker 1: pretty weird, like why would you want to lay nine
- 58:11Speaker 1: and a half points with an oh to three Omaha team. Well,
- 58:14Speaker 1: Omaha hasn't even played a home game yet. Uh and
- 58:17Speaker 1: if they did face at least Colorado State, which is
- 58:19Speaker 1: somewhat difficult, where Southern Utah they haven't faced. I mean,
- 58:22Speaker 1: they did face Arizona State, so I'll give them that.
- 58:26Speaker 1: But even so, I think Omaha they're they've actually faced
- 58:29Speaker 1: a more difficult schedule because Murray State and Aballee Christian
- 58:32Speaker 1: are likely better than whatever Division two team and uh
- 58:37Speaker 1: Rio Grande Valley. I guess it's not that bad, but yeah,
- 58:39Speaker 1: I think Omaha overall has faced the more difficult schedule though,
- 58:42Speaker 1: So there's a reason why Omaha is favored here. Uh,
- 58:45Speaker 1: They're a nine point favorite, although we have fifty percent
- 58:47Speaker 1: of tickets eighty five percent of the cash coming in
- 58:49Speaker 1: on Southern Utah, so the cash looks like it is
- 58:51Speaker 1: coming in on Southern Utah now. But I would actually
- 58:53Speaker 1: lay it with Omaha in that one because it looks like,
- 58:56Speaker 1: why again, why would you want to lay nine points
- 58:59Speaker 1: with three team? All Right? Grand Canyon at Saint Louis.
- 59:04Speaker 1: This is an interesting one as well. Grand Canyon they're
- 59:08Speaker 1: on the up. I mean they're in the Mountain West now.
- 59:11Speaker 1: They bounce back nicely after they had an ugly loss
- 59:14Speaker 1: to Youngstown. I gave out Grand Canyon on this show
- 59:17Speaker 1: against Northern Illinois and they covered pretty easily. Nice win
- 59:20Speaker 1: from Grand Canyon there there. This is gonna be their
- 59:23Speaker 1: first road game though, and they're having to go to
- 59:25Speaker 1: Saint Louis from Arizona, so it's not an easy spot
- 59:28Speaker 1: for them. Saint Louis sitting at three and oh, they
- 59:32Speaker 1: haven't faced a difficult schedule whatsoever. Really, They've faced three
- 59:36Speaker 1: easy teams beat them all. Haven't really been tested yet
- 59:41Speaker 1: at all. So this is the most difficult game so far.
- 59:44Speaker 1: I think for both of these teams. We'll see what
- 59:47Speaker 1: happens in the game. Maybe Grand Canyon is gonna get
- 59:49Speaker 1: a little bit docked because they do have one loss,
- 59:52Speaker 1: but the money's coming into the Saint Louis from seven
- 59:54Speaker 1: and a half to eight and a half eighty percent
- 59:56Speaker 1: of tickets nine to nine percent of the cash of
- 59:57Speaker 1: Saint Louis. I'm not gonna disagree with laying it with
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: Saint Louis here. Saint Louis. It seems like people don't
- 1:00:04Speaker 1: remember Robbie Avila at this point. Like he made kind
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: of a splash with Indiana State where they almost made
- 1:00:10Speaker 1: the tournament, but Saint Louis wasn't close to making the
- 1:00:13Speaker 1: tournament last year, so it's like everybody for good. But
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: he's still there, So Saint Louis does still have him
- 1:00:19Speaker 1: there at least. Grant Canyon's got some good players too though,
- 1:00:24Speaker 1: So we'll see that's a good game. Actually, it's on
- 1:00:26Speaker 1: ESPN Plus tonight, so we'll see Ducaine and Villanova. This
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: is being played at Villanova. I believe this might be
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: actually part of like this tournament thing though. Yeah, this
- 1:00:38Speaker 1: is part of the Villanova Challenge and Villanova is hosting
- 1:00:43Speaker 1: Villanova coming off an easy whatever Sacred Heart, they do
- 1:00:46Speaker 1: face little brother LaSalle coming up next to Caine. As
- 1:00:49Speaker 1: a Pittsburgh school, Ducaine probably gonna be a little bit
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: more focused on this game, Man Ducane. They did just
- 1:00:57Speaker 1: almost lose to Queen's du Cane as avin a halfway favorite,
- 1:01:01Speaker 1: so Ducaine actually not considered to be a bad team
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: right now. And this was even though this is in
- 1:01:05Speaker 1: the Villanova Challenge, this is actually at Dukaine's home stadium
- 1:01:08Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh, so across the state of Pennsylvania. So that's
- 1:01:12Speaker 1: why Dukaine was favored by as much as they were.
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: But they almost lost the game. Man Queens took them
- 1:01:17Speaker 1: into overtime, So Dukaine, I mean, they shot terribly from
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: three at seventeen percent. They did get out rebounded though,
- 1:01:24Speaker 1: and Queen's shot terribly from the field, and Ducaine really didn't.
- 1:01:28Speaker 1: So kind of some knocks on Dukaine for that reason,
- 1:01:32Speaker 1: where it looks like based on that they probably should
- 1:01:35Speaker 1: not have been close to losing that game. But I
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: think because they got a scare like that, it might
- 1:01:38Speaker 1: have been because they were looking ahead to facing Villanova,
- 1:01:41Speaker 1: who's one of the big boys in this state. I
- 1:01:44Speaker 1: think Dukaine is going to show up for this one
- 1:01:46Speaker 1: and be focused for all those reasons. So I would
- 1:01:49Speaker 1: take the points of Duquaine in this game again Villanova,
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: I mean, the only tests that they had they did
- 1:01:55Speaker 1: lose to Byeo. The Villanova was an underdog there that
- 1:01:57Speaker 1: was way out in Las vegasov. They're a very slow
- 1:02:01Speaker 1: paced team. They're down from eleven and a half to
- 1:02:03Speaker 1: ten here. I do like Dukane in this one quite
- 1:02:06Speaker 1: a bit. Actually, sixty seven percent of tickets and cash
- 1:02:09Speaker 1: on Ducane low total on one hundred and forty eight
- 1:02:11Speaker 1: and a half as well, so the points will be
- 1:02:13Speaker 1: at a premium. Again, Villanova likes to play slow. I
- 1:02:16Speaker 1: think Dukine also does. But let me see, uh no,
- 1:02:21Speaker 1: Ducaine is kind of a mid tempo team this year.
- 1:02:23Speaker 1: But still, yeah, whatever the case may be, Yeah, I
- 1:02:27Speaker 1: would take the points, though Villanova are gonna slow the
- 1:02:29Speaker 1: game down, not great for their purposes as far as
- 1:02:33Speaker 1: covering a big number, So I would take the points
- 1:02:36Speaker 1: with Ducane. Belmont at Oral Roberts. Oral Roberts is one
- 1:02:40Speaker 1: of our winners. The other day. They played Tulsa really close.
- 1:02:42Speaker 1: Oral Roberts had the chance to pull off that upset
- 1:02:45Speaker 1: man against their big brother in the city of Tulsa.
- 1:02:49Speaker 1: That was a huge game for Oral Roberts and they
- 1:02:51Speaker 1: almost pulled off the win. So I think that does
- 1:02:53Speaker 1: put them in a letdown spot here against Belmont. Belmont
- 1:02:58Speaker 1: two and zero but haven't really beaten anybody yet, but
- 1:03:00Speaker 1: this is the first true road games. That does make
- 1:03:03Speaker 1: it a little bit difficult for Belmont. So I wouldn't
- 1:03:05Speaker 1: quite want to fade them for that. I wouldn't quite
- 1:03:07Speaker 1: want to play Belmont for that reason, but I would
- 1:03:10Speaker 1: still probably lean to Belmont in this one. Of the
- 1:03:12Speaker 1: money's saying otherwise, Belmont down from eleven to eight and
- 1:03:14Speaker 1: a half, sixty seven percent of tickets on them at
- 1:03:17Speaker 1: ninety one percent of the cash on or Roberts. But
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: Or Roberts coming off what they did against Tulsa, there's
- 1:03:22Speaker 1: no way that I would want to be on Oral
- 1:03:23Speaker 1: Roberts in that game. I would lean to laying the
- 1:03:26Speaker 1: points with Belmont in that one, but certainly not going
- 1:03:29Speaker 1: to do it. New Mexico's playing New Mexico State. This
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: is a New Mexico rivalry. New Mexico hasn't really played
- 1:03:38Speaker 1: anybody yet, first true road game, although they're used to
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: playing at New Mexico State. Because these teams play each
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: other every year. I think they only played one time
- 1:03:46Speaker 1: every year though, if I'm not mistaken, so they alternate
- 1:03:49Speaker 1: venues that the year to year. New Mexico State's also
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: two and zero, but they've played absolutely nobody. I think
- 1:03:55Speaker 1: they haven't even played a Division One team yet New
- 1:03:57Speaker 1: Mexico State. So New Mexico the better team, although they're
- 1:04:01Speaker 1: only a two and a half boy favorite, down from
- 1:04:02Speaker 1: three and a half, fifty seven percent of tickets fifty
- 1:04:04Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on New Mexico. I mean,
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: I don't think I would want to take New Mexico
- 1:04:10Speaker 1: State though, just because we don't know exactly who they
- 1:04:12Speaker 1: are at all. I mean, they've not been battle tested whatsoever,
- 1:04:15Speaker 1: although they do consider themselves to be the little brother.
- 1:04:18Speaker 1: New Mexico's been the better of the New Mexico teams
- 1:04:22Speaker 1: in recent years and whatever, and it is New Mexico's
- 1:04:24Speaker 1: first true road games, So I guess there are some
- 1:04:27Speaker 1: indicators that maybe taking the points maybe the right move.
- 1:04:31Speaker 1: I mean, maybe I guess I would lean to taking
- 1:04:32Speaker 1: the points in New Mexico State, but again, I don't
- 1:04:35Speaker 1: really want to do that with a team that's not
- 1:04:37Speaker 1: battle tested at all. Then we got these Honolulu games here,
- 1:04:41Speaker 1: Mississippi Valley State and Manhattan in like the loser bracket
- 1:04:44Speaker 1: or whatever. Manhattan is a one. These teams are actually
- 1:04:48Speaker 1: one to one in the tournament. I mean, Manhattan got
- 1:04:50Speaker 1: wrecked by Hawaii, but I assume Manhattan's gonna be Mississippi
- 1:04:54Speaker 1: Valley State. Mississippi Valley State is. They're just horrible, dude.
- 1:04:58Speaker 1: They're own to this is I think for last place
- 1:05:02Speaker 1: in the tournament or however they do it. But Manhattan's
- 1:05:05Speaker 1: a twenty point favorite even though they're down for twenty
- 1:05:08Speaker 1: two and a half. When is Manhattan ever gonna be
- 1:05:10Speaker 1: a twenty point favorite? Man, Just ridiculous. That's how bad
- 1:05:13Speaker 1: Mississippi Valley State is. I mean, I don't want any
- 1:05:17Speaker 1: part of that game. Though. Du Cane's gone over in
- 1:05:24Speaker 1: all three, so you think they're gonna be like trying
- 1:05:27Speaker 1: to push the pace up a little bit in that game.
- 1:05:30Speaker 1: Villanova has covered every spread. Yeah, one of them is
- 1:05:33Speaker 1: an underdog though. Yeah, and Villanova. The other teams they
- 1:05:36Speaker 1: play were cupcakes, Green Bay and Minnesota. Yeah, that's gonna
- 1:05:40Speaker 1: be a that's gonna be an NFL game next week,
- 1:05:42Speaker 1: I believe, which is gonna factor probably into one of
- 1:05:44Speaker 1: my handicaps this week, my last game that I'm gonna play.
- 1:05:48Speaker 1: I don't really have anything to say about green Bay
- 1:05:50Speaker 1: and Minnesota though in this one. I mean it's a
- 1:05:53Speaker 1: big ten team in Minnesota against the Horizon team green Bay.
- 1:05:56Speaker 1: You know, Minnesota's gonna be a big favorite. I don't
- 1:05:58Speaker 1: have much to say about it, but I will give
- 1:06:01Speaker 1: out a play and you see Irvine minus nine, and
- 1:06:03Speaker 1: this is the spread that's getting out of control. So
- 1:06:06Speaker 1: I apologize. If you don't want to play it at
- 1:06:08Speaker 1: eleven and a half, that's fine, but it actually opened
- 1:06:10Speaker 1: at six and a half. Well, I never really saw
- 1:06:12Speaker 1: the number at that. To me, it was at like
- 1:06:15Speaker 1: nine when I first saw it. It was at nine this
- 1:06:17Speaker 1: morning too. Now it's at eleven and a half. The
- 1:06:20Speaker 1: money likes you see Irvine. I just think the spot
- 1:06:22Speaker 1: is really bad for Weaver State too, although Irvine is
- 1:06:25Speaker 1: also the better team. But Weaver State just played their
- 1:06:28Speaker 1: big brothers in Utah back to back, taking Utah into overtime,
- 1:06:33Speaker 1: and then they covered against Utah State, which was bad
- 1:06:36Speaker 1: for me because I gave out Utah State. I thought
- 1:06:38Speaker 1: that Weaver State was going to be in a hangover
- 1:06:40Speaker 1: after this, but maybe this is where the real hangover
- 1:06:42Speaker 1: comes in not great for Utah State. I mean, Utah
- 1:06:47Speaker 1: State got out rebounded in the game, didn't shoot well
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: at all thirteen percent from three point range. Utah State
- 1:06:54Speaker 1: was very good in the turnover department, so some indicators
- 1:06:57Speaker 1: of the Utah State should have done better in this game.
- 1:06:59Speaker 1: They did pull away near the end, but then they
- 1:07:01Speaker 1: just like stopped trying to score pretty much. You stay
- 1:07:04Speaker 1: at eighty one points in five minutes, and then they
- 1:07:06Speaker 1: still were at eighty one in the final minute, so
- 1:07:09Speaker 1: you doest State didn't score for a five minute stretch
- 1:07:12Speaker 1: there where they were up thirteen at that but they
- 1:07:14Speaker 1: could have covered the twenty and a half for us
- 1:07:16Speaker 1: if they scored like at all at that point, and
- 1:07:19Speaker 1: they had been up by more than that a little
- 1:07:21Speaker 1: bit earlier. They're up fifteen, so they looked like they
- 1:07:24Speaker 1: were pushing to maybe cover that one, and they didn't.
- 1:07:27Speaker 1: But we were stayed after getting up for both of
- 1:07:29Speaker 1: those games, even though I know they weren't really in
- 1:07:31Speaker 1: the game at the end of it there. But after
- 1:07:33Speaker 1: doing that in those two games, now they have to
- 1:07:35Speaker 1: go to the Pacific Coast for the first time this year.
- 1:07:37Speaker 1: It's a third straight road game after playing their two
- 1:07:40Speaker 1: in state big brothers. Pretty brutal spot for we were
- 1:07:44Speaker 1: stayed here. You see Irvine bounce back nicely after a
- 1:07:48Speaker 1: bad loss at home to Cal Baptist, where you see
- 1:07:50Speaker 1: Irvine was an eight and a half point favorite, should
- 1:07:54Speaker 1: have won the game probably, but got caught. I know,
- 1:07:57Speaker 1: you see, Irvine has only beaten non Division one team
- 1:07:59Speaker 1: so far. But I think that's gonna motivate them a
- 1:08:02Speaker 1: little bit and it'll give them some momentum because they
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: bounce back off that loss. They won easily against another
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: Division two team, so I think they're gonna have motivation
- 1:08:10Speaker 1: coming into this. They lost their first Division one home game.
- 1:08:14Speaker 1: They're gonna be pissed they're staying at home. They played
- 1:08:16Speaker 1: at home all season so far, So the travel spot's
- 1:08:20Speaker 1: a lot better for you see, Irvine. They got some
- 1:08:22Speaker 1: new momentum here. I think they'll get it done. We're
- 1:08:25Speaker 1: laying it with you see Irvine in that one, all right,
- 1:08:29Speaker 1: And then Hawaii Utah Tech is the final game in
- 1:08:32Speaker 1: that Hawaii tournament, which Hawaii is up to a seventeen
- 1:08:35Speaker 1: point favorite from a fourteen a half point favorite. The
- 1:08:37Speaker 1: tournament is designed for Hawaii to win it. Man, that's
- 1:08:40Speaker 1: just what it is. I don't know where where is
- 1:08:44Speaker 1: shamanad Man. Shamanad usually plays in that tournament. I thought
- 1:08:47Speaker 1: because they're I believe they're a Hawaii school even though
- 1:08:52Speaker 1: they're non Division one. Sometimes they have some surprises. I
- 1:08:55Speaker 1: don't know where they're at. Anyway, that's gonna do it
- 1:08:59Speaker 1: for for college basketball. All right, let's get into we
- 1:09:04Speaker 1: have NHL and then NBA. I don't have anything in
- 1:09:06Speaker 1: the NBA NHL, limiting myself to two moneyline plays that
- 1:09:10Speaker 1: are actually in like a solid like range that you
- 1:09:13Speaker 1: want to actually play them in. First one up is
- 1:09:17Speaker 1: at five pm. We'll give it out right now. It's
- 1:09:20Speaker 1: it's the best bets, baby, the whole show is the
- 1:09:22Speaker 1: best bets. We're gonna take Tampa Bay on the money
- 1:09:24Speaker 1: line against Florida here, which Jeffrey probably likes this one.
- 1:09:28Speaker 1: We'll fade Florida. Florida is a fairly public side at
- 1:09:31Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of tickets, only fifty seven percent of
- 1:09:34Speaker 1: the cash up from minus one twenty seven to minus
- 1:09:36Speaker 1: one thirty three, so you get a nice underdog price
- 1:09:39Speaker 1: on Tampa Bay here. I mean the crux of this
- 1:09:42Speaker 1: is that this is a huge playoff revenge spot for
- 1:09:45Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. So not only is it a Florida rivalry,
- 1:09:48Speaker 1: but Tampa has played second fiddle to Florida for multiple
- 1:09:51Speaker 1: seasons now. And you gotta think Tampa Bay is gonna
- 1:09:54Speaker 1: be extra motivated here because the last time they played Florida,
- 1:09:57Speaker 1: Florida was eliminating Tampa Bay from the playoff last year.
- 1:10:00Speaker 1: So you know, Tampa Bay has this game one hundred circled.
- 1:10:04Speaker 1: So I like Tampa Bay. And even better, they're coming
- 1:10:07Speaker 1: off a really hideous loss to the Rangers at home,
- 1:10:10Speaker 1: and you know, we talk about how good the Rangers
- 1:10:12Speaker 1: are on the road, which that might have been one
- 1:10:15Speaker 1: of my wins. Actually, I think it was right because
- 1:10:17Speaker 1: Tampa had Beaten Vegas finishing a road trip, they return home,
- 1:10:20Speaker 1: they beat Washington, and then they had this huge Florida
- 1:10:23Speaker 1: game up next, So I'm pretty sure I gave out
- 1:10:25Speaker 1: the Rangers in that game. It was good. We got
- 1:10:28Speaker 1: it done with the Rangers in that one. Now Tampa
- 1:10:31Speaker 1: not only are they coming off a real horrendous loss,
- 1:10:33Speaker 1: but they've had multiple days off to regather themselves or yeah,
- 1:10:38Speaker 1: like pick themselves up off the mat. I think that's good.
- 1:10:41Speaker 1: You have multiple days off after you have a bad
- 1:10:43Speaker 1: loss like that, like an ugly loss, not in a
- 1:10:46Speaker 1: game that was like considered going to be a big
- 1:10:48Speaker 1: game or anything like that. So I think the extra
- 1:10:50Speaker 1: time off will help them as well. It also might
- 1:10:52Speaker 1: mean and the Vassilevsky will be back in net again
- 1:10:54Speaker 1: here for them, although usually he doesn't play that many
- 1:10:58Speaker 1: games in a row, but because they've had day's rest,
- 1:11:00Speaker 1: he might actually be in net here. Florida, they're still
- 1:11:04Speaker 1: gonna get the public action, man, because they still have
- 1:11:06Speaker 1: the slightly better looking record this year. There's still the
- 1:11:10Speaker 1: back to back returning champs. Florida is still gonna probably
- 1:11:14Speaker 1: have Bobrovski in net here, who is their better goalie,
- 1:11:16Speaker 1: because he didn't play on a Thursday. But they do
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: have less time off. And Florida did just return home
- 1:11:21Speaker 1: from a road trip and they somehow were able to
- 1:11:23Speaker 1: get the job done anyway in a pretty bad return
- 1:11:26Speaker 1: home spot where they had gone out to the Pacific coast.
- 1:11:29Speaker 1: I think a lot of times you do get distracted
- 1:11:31Speaker 1: when you come home in a game like that, But
- 1:11:33Speaker 1: they won anyway against Washington. That's a decent win, so
- 1:11:37Speaker 1: maybe they'll be like kind of a delayed return home
- 1:11:41Speaker 1: distraction spot here. I don't know, but this is more
- 1:11:44Speaker 1: about it being a positive spot for Tampa. But right
- 1:11:46Speaker 1: I think you're gonna get an extremely motivated Tampa team
- 1:11:50Speaker 1: and you're getting them as an underdog. Debatably, it's a
- 1:11:53Speaker 1: letdown spot for Florida after two big wins against Vegas
- 1:11:56Speaker 1: and Washington as well, We're gonna go with it. Tampa
- 1:11:59Speaker 1: Bay is the first of my two hockey players there. Yep, dude,
- 1:12:05Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah. There're gonna be fights in that game,
- 1:12:09Speaker 1: almost undoubtedly. All Right, the rest of this hockey board, man,
- 1:12:16Speaker 1: I mean Anaheim at Minnesota, I mean, you know, I
- 1:12:18Speaker 1: talk about how Minnesota is overrated, but it seems like
- 1:12:21Speaker 1: Anaheim is so overrated that Minnesota is actually favored against them.
- 1:12:25Speaker 1: Minnesota down from minus one forty and minus one thirty three.
- 1:12:27Speaker 1: But Anaheim is getting the tickets because Anaheim has a
- 1:12:31Speaker 1: good record this year in Minnesota. Doesn't really fifty five
- 1:12:33Speaker 1: percent of the tickets are on Anaheim. I think Anaheim
- 1:12:36Speaker 1: is pretty overrated right now, as sixty five percent of
- 1:12:39Speaker 1: the cash coming in on Minnesota. This is the overrated Bowl.
- 1:12:43Speaker 1: If you want to call it that, so, Anaheim. I mean,
- 1:12:48Speaker 1: they have taken two losses now on the road, man,
- 1:12:51Speaker 1: And I told you it was kind of a hangover
- 1:12:52Speaker 1: spot after they lost to Colorado and that broke a
- 1:12:54Speaker 1: long wind streak of theirs. Sometimes it does have a
- 1:12:57Speaker 1: hangover effect, and it did and they lost it Detroit. Now, yes,
- 1:13:02Speaker 1: I guess they should be motivated to try to get
- 1:13:04Speaker 1: a win to finish the road trip. But they're coming
- 1:13:06Speaker 1: off two losses and against two pretty difficult opponents, man,
- 1:13:10Speaker 1: So I don't know. I mean, the market read is
- 1:13:13Speaker 1: same Minnesota here. It looks weird to seeing Minnesota being
- 1:13:15Speaker 1: a favorite as far as Minnesota's concerned. They did just
- 1:13:19Speaker 1: lose to San Jose at home, which is a very
- 1:13:21Speaker 1: horrendous loss, and they have multiple days off here so
- 1:13:24Speaker 1: they've been office. It's Tuesday, so Minnesota has no travel,
- 1:13:27Speaker 1: have a lot of rest, and they're in a pretty
- 1:13:29Speaker 1: big bounce back spot. So I think the reason for
- 1:13:32Speaker 1: Minnesota is just that it's a more positive spot for
- 1:13:34Speaker 1: Minnesota there. So I agree with Minnesota there. I don't
- 1:13:37Speaker 1: want to play it my Boston Bruins. They could be
- 1:13:41Speaker 1: in a very similar hangover spot if they had won
- 1:13:44Speaker 1: seven games in a row and they finally lost a
- 1:13:46Speaker 1: game to Ottawa unfortunately with Corpusalo and net though, so
- 1:13:51Speaker 1: we'll be swayming back and net for this. So I
- 1:13:52Speaker 1: think both teams actually had their backup goalie in net
- 1:13:55Speaker 1: in that Ottawa Boston game there, So I don't think
- 1:13:58Speaker 1: it was Ollmark or Swayman. That rivalry was not in
- 1:14:01Speaker 1: play in that game. Bruins coming up that game. Now
- 1:14:04Speaker 1: they got Montreal. This is an original six matchup. These
- 1:14:07Speaker 1: teams hate each other. I will tell you right now
- 1:14:10Speaker 1: now that Montreal looks like they're pretty decent again, Boston
- 1:14:14Speaker 1: and Montreal really really don't like each other. It's one
- 1:14:17Speaker 1: of the bigger rivalries in hockey, and it has not
- 1:14:20Speaker 1: really been heated for a while though, but maybe it'll
- 1:14:23Speaker 1: start getting that way again. But I do think the
- 1:14:25Speaker 1: Bruins are gonna be a bit hungover after that loss. Man,
- 1:14:27Speaker 1: if for not having lost for quite a while, Montreal,
- 1:14:32Speaker 1: they're still the better team here. As the oddsmakers are
- 1:14:35Speaker 1: telling you, Montreal is off two losses, and not only
- 1:14:37Speaker 1: are they off two losses, but they lost by a
- 1:14:39Speaker 1: combined twelve to one in those losses to La and Dallas.
- 1:14:44Speaker 1: That is just really, really bad. I think they're gonna
- 1:14:47Speaker 1: be in a bounce back mode here after how ugly
- 1:14:50Speaker 1: those losses were. They're just staying at home. So I
- 1:14:52Speaker 1: would lean to Montreal in this game. This one is
- 1:14:55Speaker 1: close to a play for me. They're down for minus
- 1:14:57Speaker 1: one seventy five to minus one sixty, but fifty nine
- 1:15:00Speaker 1: tickets eighty percent of the cash on Montreal. I'm tempted
- 1:15:03Speaker 1: to add this as a play. To be honest, I
- 1:15:06Speaker 1: don't know, man. I mean, I mean, if you want
- 1:15:10Speaker 1: to play this one in Montreal, you gotta like do
- 1:15:12Speaker 1: some sort of like split bet thing on it. Though
- 1:15:16Speaker 1: I'll skip it, but yeah, I do like Montreal on
- 1:15:18Speaker 1: that one. Again, I don't really. I'm sick of playing
- 1:15:23Speaker 1: these stupid favorites, man, because in hockey, it's like you
- 1:15:26Speaker 1: almost have no ability to play a favorite. You either
- 1:15:28Speaker 1: have to go in regulation and there's like a huge
- 1:15:31Speaker 1: percentage chance the game goes into overtime, or you have
- 1:15:34Speaker 1: to do what I did last night with a split
- 1:15:36Speaker 1: bet and then it pushes if they win by one.
- 1:15:40Speaker 1: I fucking hate hockey, man, So we'll stick to two
- 1:15:43Speaker 1: small money lines this time. The Kings are at Ottawa
- 1:15:47Speaker 1: Kings are on a nice run here, three straight wins.
- 1:15:50Speaker 1: They just beat Toronto in overtime, big win, after beating
- 1:15:53Speaker 1: Montreal five to one as well. Now they got to
- 1:15:56Speaker 1: go to Ottawa. Maybe a spot where it runs out
- 1:15:59Speaker 1: for the King of the Ottawa beating Boston that was
- 1:16:02Speaker 1: a pretty good win. I mean, that wasn't nothing. And
- 1:16:04Speaker 1: oh Mark should be back in net for this one
- 1:16:06Speaker 1: for Ottawa. So I mean, yeah, it looks like I mean,
- 1:16:10Speaker 1: you could debate maybe it's a letdown spot for Ottawa,
- 1:16:12Speaker 1: but I do think the spot is worse for the Kings.
- 1:16:14Speaker 1: So I am gonna lead to Ottawa. They will have
- 1:16:17Speaker 1: swayming back in net. The cash seems to reflect this
- 1:16:19Speaker 1: Autowa down for minus one twenty to minus one thirteen,
- 1:16:22Speaker 1: seventy two percent of the cash on Ottawa. Sixty two
- 1:16:25Speaker 1: percent of the tickets are on La, so LA looks
- 1:16:29Speaker 1: public Auta is getting the actual money. So I agree
- 1:16:32Speaker 1: with Ottawa in that game. Yeah, we're skipping the Canadians devils.
- 1:16:39Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with Jack Hughes, mister cover,
- 1:16:43Speaker 1: what's up man? I like your name. You're on Santa Clara,
- 1:16:46Speaker 1: San Francisco and Marquette. The only one of those games
- 1:16:48Speaker 1: I talked about was Marquette. I think, did I say
- 1:16:51Speaker 1: that I lead to Marquette. I think I did. I
- 1:16:52Speaker 1: didn't even talk about the other two games. There is
- 1:16:54Speaker 1: just too much college basketball to really deal with, man,
- 1:16:57Speaker 1: So thanks for giving out your picks. I believe I
- 1:17:01Speaker 1: do agree with the Marquette one. The other two if
- 1:17:04Speaker 1: I look at them more deeply on my degree im
- 1:17:06Speaker 1: and I looked at them last night, and I just
- 1:17:08Speaker 1: completely forget what I thought about those games. So good
- 1:17:12Speaker 1: luck with your plays man. Hopefully hopefully they win, Hopefully
- 1:17:16Speaker 1: mine win as well, and hopefully we're all gonna have
- 1:17:19Speaker 1: a good day today. Buffalo at Detroit, I mean, Detroit's
- 1:17:25Speaker 1: obviously the better team here. Buffalo has lost five games
- 1:17:28Speaker 1: in a row. The spot is not very easy, though,
- 1:17:32Speaker 1: because Buffalo is playing a third game in four days,
- 1:17:34Speaker 1: and they played the first two of those three in
- 1:17:37Speaker 1: elevation against Utah and Colorado, though they got beating up
- 1:17:41Speaker 1: in both of those games and failed for me, I
- 1:17:44Speaker 1: think against Utah in that game. It's not a great
- 1:17:48Speaker 1: spot for Buffalo just because of the travel and how
- 1:17:50Speaker 1: many games they're playing in a short In short succession,
- 1:17:53Speaker 1: although I think if they want to, they'll try to
- 1:17:55Speaker 1: get up for a game against Detroit. Detroit could be
- 1:17:59Speaker 1: in a letdown spot because they did just lose. Excuse me,
- 1:18:01Speaker 1: they did just beat Anaheim, although they did break a
- 1:18:04Speaker 1: losing streak for them, so in a way, that does
- 1:18:06Speaker 1: give them some new momentum. And they do have rest
- 1:18:08Speaker 1: because they had three days off prior to that Anaheim games.
- 1:18:12Speaker 1: So Detroit is the more rested team here, even though
- 1:18:16Speaker 1: they're debatably in a letdown spot. The schedule is much
- 1:18:19Speaker 1: more packed for Buffalo, so Buffalo is the less rested
- 1:18:22Speaker 1: team here. I don't want to play the game. I mean,
- 1:18:26Speaker 1: I see problems for both teams here. Detroit up for
- 1:18:29Speaker 1: minus one sixty five to minus one sixty nine seventy tickets,
- 1:18:33Speaker 1: eighty percent of the cash on Detroit's The money is
- 1:18:35Speaker 1: kind of indicating on Detroit here. I might even consider
- 1:18:38Speaker 1: an over in this game, even though it flipped to
- 1:18:41Speaker 1: six and a half juice to the under. Six and
- 1:18:43Speaker 1: a half pretty high total for a hockey game. But
- 1:18:46Speaker 1: I mean Buffalo to me, Buffalo just plays a lot
- 1:18:48Speaker 1: of overs. They allow a lot of goals. Man, So
- 1:18:53Speaker 1: where I think, you know, the teams might you might
- 1:18:56Speaker 1: have like some laps of like you might have some
- 1:18:58Speaker 1: fatigue and maybe some lap some defensive focus in that game.
- 1:19:01Speaker 1: So maybe an over New Jersey and New Jersey gets
- 1:19:08Speaker 1: Washington the next game. Up With the Hughes thing, you're
- 1:19:11Speaker 1: on the under on Buffalo Detroit, Yeah, I don't agree
- 1:19:13Speaker 1: with it. We'll see, Uh, we'll see if it gets there.
- 1:19:17Speaker 1: We'll see which side gets there. But I'll root for
- 1:19:20Speaker 1: your under because I don't have a stake in it otherwise,
- 1:19:23Speaker 1: even though I do have an opinion on it, but
- 1:19:25Speaker 1: I don't really care. But yeah, I mean, in my opinion,
- 1:19:28Speaker 1: I think that it's going to be a higher scoring
- 1:19:30Speaker 1: game New Jersey at Washington. You know me, I just
- 1:19:33Speaker 1: I hate unders in hockey because of the the empty
- 1:19:36Speaker 1: net goals. Just ruin unders in hockey. New Jersey. If
- 1:19:40Speaker 1: you want to argue that they're in a an injured
- 1:19:42Speaker 1: player theory spot because their best player, Hughes is now
- 1:19:45Speaker 1: hurt because of some hand thing. I don't know. He
- 1:19:49Speaker 1: probably hurt his hand masturbating. Really, he's not master of
- 1:19:52Speaker 1: his domain. And I don't have that as a drop
- 1:19:55Speaker 1: right now. But I should get a bunch of sidefelt
- 1:19:58Speaker 1: drops just to try to use them whenever it randomly
- 1:20:01Speaker 1: comes up. Have one for every single possibility. Million Seinfeld drops.
- 1:20:07Speaker 1: But I don't think the injured player theory is that
- 1:20:09Speaker 1: big of a thing in hockey because even if he
- 1:20:11Speaker 1: is a player that has a lot of impact, like Hughes,
- 1:20:14Speaker 1: it doesn't really affect the line that much like the
- 1:20:17Speaker 1: line that the oddsmakers set, because the even the best
- 1:20:20Speaker 1: player on your hockey team is probably only only gonna
- 1:20:22Speaker 1: play like like a slight majority of the minutes, right
- 1:20:26Speaker 1: like it's a sixty minute hockey game, and like, how
- 1:20:28Speaker 1: many minutes does your best player play really like in
- 1:20:30Speaker 1: the thirties would be my guest. I don't even I'm
- 1:20:33Speaker 1: not even sure if I'm right about that. But it
- 1:20:35Speaker 1: has less of an impact because so many lines rotating
- 1:20:37Speaker 1: in and out, So I don't really care about that
- 1:20:39Speaker 1: aspect of it. New Jersey did just get the win
- 1:20:42Speaker 1: a little bit of a scare in overtime against Chicago.
- 1:20:46Speaker 1: That was a player where I gave it out in regulations.
- 1:20:48Speaker 1: It was a loser, which is unfortunate for that one.
- 1:20:53Speaker 1: It should have been an easier win for Chicago. They're
- 1:20:56Speaker 1: going to Washington here in this one big game for
- 1:20:59Speaker 1: both teams. As far as Washington is concerned, Washington is
- 1:21:03Speaker 1: returning home from a road trips, even though they got
- 1:21:05Speaker 1: obliterated by Florida to finish the road trip. You know,
- 1:21:08Speaker 1: I talk about return home from road trip not a
- 1:21:11Speaker 1: good spot. Even though Washington stayed in the Eastern time
- 1:21:14Speaker 1: zone for this, so it's not as difficult as it
- 1:21:16Speaker 1: could be, but it was still a long duration as
- 1:21:19Speaker 1: they were away since November sixth, so it is still
- 1:21:22Speaker 1: a return home spot. And when you're turnover from a
- 1:21:24Speaker 1: road trip, a lot of times you are a little
- 1:21:26Speaker 1: bit less focused. And maybe with the Hughes injury, maybe
- 1:21:29Speaker 1: Washington will take New Jersey a little bit more likely.
- 1:21:31Speaker 1: So for those reasons, I will lean slightly to New
- 1:21:35Speaker 1: Jersey here, But the money is completely disagreeing with that.
- 1:21:39Speaker 1: Washington up for a minus one to twenty five to
- 1:21:40Speaker 1: minus one fifty two, sixty percent of ticket, seventy two
- 1:21:43Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Washington. So big money line move,
- 1:21:47Speaker 1: although actually the the move actually might have been because
- 1:21:49Speaker 1: of Hughs to me honest, So though I really don't
- 1:21:51Speaker 1: think you usually see a move that significant in the
- 1:21:54Speaker 1: hockey market because of one injured player, but maybe that
- 1:21:58Speaker 1: move did have to do with that. But it does
- 1:22:00Speaker 1: look like the cash is also on the Washington side
- 1:22:02Speaker 1: right now. But if you like New Jersey, you're getting
- 1:22:04Speaker 1: more value on that line. And that is what I
- 1:22:06Speaker 1: would do if I was gonna play it, I would
- 1:22:07Speaker 1: lean to New Jersey. But I don't want it. Yes,
- 1:22:11Speaker 1: exactly winning a contest, you think it was a fight.
- 1:22:16Speaker 1: I mean, it is possible that the injured player phenomenon
- 1:22:19Speaker 1: could come into play there in New Jersey is gonna
- 1:22:21Speaker 1: play harder because they know their best players out, so
- 1:22:24Speaker 1: that might still be a factor there, and you are
- 1:22:25Speaker 1: getting them as an underdog, so I don't hate that.
- 1:22:29Speaker 1: Edmonton at Carolina. This is a huge game Edmonton. They're
- 1:22:33Speaker 1: coming off of a loss to Columbus. Could have been maybe
- 1:22:36Speaker 1: a look ahead spot they had pickered in that there
- 1:22:38Speaker 1: and he has not been very good. Skinner will likely
- 1:22:41Speaker 1: be back in net for Edmonton here in this one,
- 1:22:43Speaker 1: so they will have their better goalie and net at
- 1:22:45Speaker 1: least could be in a bounce back off of Columbus.
- 1:22:48Speaker 1: But they're playing a fourth game in six days, do
- 1:22:51Speaker 1: it all in different cities, so Edmonton not in a
- 1:22:53Speaker 1: great travel spot. Here. Really, they're in a third game
- 1:22:56Speaker 1: in four days, all in different cities as well, so
- 1:22:58Speaker 1: the travel spot and the lack of rest is a
- 1:23:01Speaker 1: bit difficult. Carolina coming off an overtime win over Vancouver yesterday,
- 1:23:07Speaker 1: so they're in a back to back, but they're somewhat
- 1:23:09Speaker 1: rested because they hadn't played since Tuesday prior to that,
- 1:23:12Speaker 1: so their rest spot is actually better despite the fact
- 1:23:15Speaker 1: that they played yesterday. They used Cochet covn Net yesterday,
- 1:23:18Speaker 1: so they'll probably I would guess used Anderson in this one,
- 1:23:23Speaker 1: but I don't know, man, because Carolina's just rotating Matree
- 1:23:27Speaker 1: three of their goalies. Maybe it would be boost Bussy
- 1:23:29Speaker 1: and this one we'll see. I don't know. I just
- 1:23:33Speaker 1: like to say his name. I don't even know if
- 1:23:34Speaker 1: that's how it's pronounced, but that's how I'm gonna pronounce it.
- 1:23:37Speaker 1: Carolina is down for minus one twenty five to minus
- 1:23:39Speaker 1: one seventeen here, so the money is coming in on
- 1:23:42Speaker 1: Edmonton fifty four percent of tickets nine and a half
- 1:23:44Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming in on Edmonton. You know,
- 1:23:48Speaker 1: I I don't know if I necessarily agree with it.
- 1:23:51Speaker 1: I don't love the schedule. A spot for edmondin even
- 1:23:53Speaker 1: it looks like it should be a spot where they
- 1:23:54Speaker 1: focus and bounce back. Uh, you know, Carolina being on
- 1:23:59Speaker 1: a back to back but with no travel and a
- 1:24:01Speaker 1: lot of rest before that. I don't think it's the
- 1:24:04Speaker 1: worst spot for Carolina really, So I don't know. Man.
- 1:24:07Speaker 1: To me, I do like Carolina better generally because they're
- 1:24:10Speaker 1: the better deepens and whatever. And if both teams show up,
- 1:24:13Speaker 1: I mean that would be kind of the way that
- 1:24:14Speaker 1: I would tend to look. But the public is kind
- 1:24:17Speaker 1: of off the Edmonds train slightly, I think now, because
- 1:24:20Speaker 1: the record doesn't look that good. So don't have a
- 1:24:24Speaker 1: whole lot of thoughts on that one though. The market
- 1:24:25Speaker 1: is saying Edmonton though, But I don't know if I
- 1:24:27Speaker 1: love it. My last play of the day is gonna
- 1:24:30Speaker 1: be the New York Rangers. Don't know if my New
- 1:24:34Speaker 1: York accent is correct, it almost sounds like my Boston accent.
- 1:24:40Speaker 1: We're gonna take the Rangers, and of course that means
- 1:24:42Speaker 1: the Rangers are on the road where the Rangers dominated,
- 1:24:46Speaker 1: So that's what we're gonna do. The Rangers is so
- 1:24:48Speaker 1: much better on the road. Man, It's ridiculous. The money's
- 1:24:51Speaker 1: agreeing with this This is against Columbus. Rangers are up
- 1:24:54Speaker 1: for minus one thirteen to minus one fifteen. Yeah, the
- 1:24:57Speaker 1: public ticket percentage might be on the Rangers side here
- 1:25:00Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets, but ninety five percent of the cash.
- 1:25:02Speaker 1: I think the real money is on the Rangers in
- 1:25:04Speaker 1: this one, and that's what we're going with. If you
- 1:25:06Speaker 1: look at the records here, Columbus actually has the better
- 1:25:10Speaker 1: overall record at nine to seven and one, Rangers nine
- 1:25:13Speaker 1: to seven and two. So laying a favorite with the
- 1:25:15Speaker 1: Rangers still looks a little bit strange based on that,
- 1:25:18Speaker 1: because again, why is the team with the worst record
- 1:25:21Speaker 1: a favor on the road? Osmakers are telling you the
- 1:25:23Speaker 1: Rangers are actually the better team. And by the way,
- 1:25:27Speaker 1: as I just alluded to, the Rangers are eight one
- 1:25:29Speaker 1: and one on the road. Eight of their nine wins
- 1:25:32Speaker 1: a road wins. They've been really really good on the
- 1:25:35Speaker 1: road and it's helped us out. We've won at least
- 1:25:37Speaker 1: twice I think recently with the Rangers on the road,
- 1:25:39Speaker 1: we're gonna keep doing it, man, and we've won fading
- 1:25:41Speaker 1: them at home. I love the Rangers right now, like
- 1:25:45Speaker 1: I think, what have we lost to sing? I mean,
- 1:25:47Speaker 1: I don't want to jinx it. But I think we
- 1:25:49Speaker 1: won almost most of our games involving the Rangers one
- 1:25:52Speaker 1: way or the other, basically by just playing the Rangers
- 1:25:54Speaker 1: on the road and fading them at home. But the
- 1:25:56Speaker 1: spots actually set up in favor of that as well.
- 1:26:00Speaker 1: Columbus is only four to three and zero at home,
- 1:26:02Speaker 1: so they're not great at home. Rangers better on the road,
- 1:26:06Speaker 1: the Columbus is at home, even though this is the Rangers.
- 1:26:09Speaker 1: I don't like the spot for Columbus. Year's Columbus just
- 1:26:12Speaker 1: beat Edmonton, so I actually think it's a letdown spot
- 1:26:14Speaker 1: and that was going to return home spot two where
- 1:26:17Speaker 1: Columbus was on the road for like ten days or
- 1:26:20Speaker 1: so when they came back home, didn't fall into that
- 1:26:23Speaker 1: unfocused spot there and they somehow beat Edmonton. They could
- 1:26:27Speaker 1: be in a letdown spot off of that. Man and
- 1:26:29Speaker 1: Montreal has a better record too, and that's their next opponent.
- 1:26:33Speaker 1: And it was quick revenge against Edmonton because Edmonton had
- 1:26:36Speaker 1: just beaten them in Edmonton on that road trip, So
- 1:26:41Speaker 1: big win there for Columbus man against Edmonton. Now they
- 1:26:44Speaker 1: get this New York team, the Rangers that look mediocre
- 1:26:47Speaker 1: right now, and it could be a look ahead to
- 1:26:48Speaker 1: Montreal just because the record's better. So I think the
- 1:26:50Speaker 1: spot it's a tricky spot for Columbus. Man for the Rangers,
- 1:26:55Speaker 1: I think it's a decent spot, even though you could
- 1:26:57Speaker 1: argue maybe it's a letdown spot because they hammer Tampa
- 1:27:00Speaker 1: Bay on the road in their last game, But the
- 1:27:02Speaker 1: Rangers have multiple days off here. Yeah, that could hurt
- 1:27:05Speaker 1: their momentum a little bit because they've won two games
- 1:27:07Speaker 1: in a row. But I don't think they're really gonna
- 1:27:10Speaker 1: be overconfident coming into this. I know they do play
- 1:27:12Speaker 1: Detroit tomorrow and in Vegas, but this Ranger team, they
- 1:27:15Speaker 1: got to start racking up some wins, man, So I
- 1:27:17Speaker 1: don't actually think it's that bad of a spot for
- 1:27:19Speaker 1: them here. Tampa Bay has been kind of mediocre this
- 1:27:21Speaker 1: year anyway, I think it's at least a negative spot
- 1:27:24Speaker 1: for Columbus, and the Rangers are just that good on
- 1:27:26Speaker 1: the road. So we will take the Rangers in that game. Again.
- 1:27:31Speaker 1: You're going to Wake Forest in unc Boo Belichick. Although
- 1:27:35Speaker 1: I have an opinion on North Carolina covering in that game,
- 1:27:38Speaker 1: not one of my plays though, So hopefully that game
- 1:27:42Speaker 1: is fun. It's a big North Carolina rivalry. Man, this
- 1:27:48Speaker 1: game this, You know, these shows take a lot of effort, Man,
- 1:27:51Speaker 1: especially when I did one last night. College basketball is
- 1:27:56Speaker 1: gonna be the death of me. Hopefully we get wins
- 1:27:59Speaker 1: in college basketball again. I don't feel very confident at
- 1:28:02Speaker 1: all in college basketball. Toronto at Chicago, this is a
- 1:28:06Speaker 1: weird one. Toronto. I think they're probably better than their
- 1:28:09Speaker 1: eight eight to two record, as though I think Matthews
- 1:28:11Speaker 1: might still be out. As people were pointing out, Matthews
- 1:28:14Speaker 1: has been hurt. Oh yeah, he's on the IR right now.
- 1:28:19Speaker 1: He's supposed to return on the twentieth, though I guess
- 1:28:21Speaker 1: that's the way the IR works in hockey. He's still out.
- 1:28:25Speaker 1: But Toronto's lost four games in a row, Man, so
- 1:28:28Speaker 1: at some point you got to think they're gonna have
- 1:28:29Speaker 1: a bounce back. They just lost at home to LA
- 1:28:32Speaker 1: and now they get to go out on the road.
- 1:28:34Speaker 1: It's a single game road trip, but maybe getting out
- 1:28:36Speaker 1: of home is a good thing and just get to
- 1:28:38Speaker 1: focus on hockey. For Chicago, I don't think they're as
- 1:28:41Speaker 1: good as their record looks, and they're coming off losing
- 1:28:44Speaker 1: a win streak, which was a three game win streak,
- 1:28:46Speaker 1: although in this case it was an unimpressive win streak
- 1:28:48Speaker 1: against Vancouver and Calgary, but Detroit was an impressive win,
- 1:28:51Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that on the road, five to one.
- 1:28:55Speaker 1: And that's why I faded Chicago in the return home
- 1:28:57Speaker 1: spot because it was a return home from a long
- 1:28:59Speaker 1: road trip and they were coming off a big win
- 1:29:01Speaker 1: over Detroit. They still kind of showed up against New
- 1:29:04Speaker 1: Jersey and they did use night. They're better goaling in
- 1:29:06Speaker 1: net too. Lost the game, so that lost their win stream.
- 1:29:10Speaker 1: They could be maybe a little bit hung over here,
- 1:29:12Speaker 1: although they don't have a big game up next against
- 1:29:15Speaker 1: Calgary because they did just smash Calgary on the road.
- 1:29:18Speaker 1: So you definitely could see Chicago potentially still being focused
- 1:29:22Speaker 1: here in this game against Toronto because it's pretty isolated
- 1:29:25Speaker 1: with a lot of rest around it. So they probably
- 1:29:27Speaker 1: will still show up. It probably will be night in
- 1:29:30Speaker 1: Net again for Chicago here. The money seems to be
- 1:29:32Speaker 1: coming in in Chicago Toronto down for minus one thirty
- 1:29:35Speaker 1: to minus one twenty six, fifty six percent of tickets,
- 1:29:37Speaker 1: seventy seven percent of the cash on Chicago's the money's
- 1:29:40Speaker 1: saying Chicago, I don't love it. I mean, I think
- 1:29:43Speaker 1: it's a positive I don't know. To me, I think
- 1:29:46Speaker 1: it's actually more of a positive spot for Toronto though,
- 1:29:48Speaker 1: because Chicago maybe could be a little bit hungover after
- 1:29:51Speaker 1: going into overtime against the Devils. So actually slightly went
- 1:29:54Speaker 1: into Toronto there. But I don't love it at all.
- 1:30:01Speaker 1: College basket will only gets your attention. There's smart money.
- 1:30:04Speaker 1: It's hard to end well, it's hard to know, Like
- 1:30:06Speaker 1: I have a hard time reading the market in college
- 1:30:08Speaker 1: basketball overnight early morning because some of those lines my
- 1:30:12Speaker 1: moves are set up, so you don't know what actually
- 1:30:14Speaker 1: like who was actually doing that and for what reason,
- 1:30:17Speaker 1: because those lines can move a ton for any reason,
- 1:30:21Speaker 1: like it is because there's professional money coming in on
- 1:30:23Speaker 1: that side. But for what reason is the huge question
- 1:30:27Speaker 1: because it might not be the real side that they want.
- 1:30:30Speaker 1: So it's very difficult to gauge. So I try to
- 1:30:33Speaker 1: go off a situation. But Vegas at Saint Louis, Vegas
- 1:30:41Speaker 1: four game loss Street, they just took a loss to
- 1:30:43Speaker 1: the Islanders or shocked me. I think that was a
- 1:30:45Speaker 1: loss for us on the show. Couldn't believe that that happened.
- 1:30:48Speaker 1: The Islanders were in a terrible spot in that one.
- 1:30:51Speaker 1: Actually did I give up Vegas. I don't think I did.
- 1:30:53Speaker 1: Actually I think I almost did. But whatever, Now Vegas
- 1:30:56Speaker 1: gets to go on the road. I think that's a
- 1:30:57Speaker 1: positive spot for Vegas. Now you're losing badly at home,
- 1:31:01Speaker 1: one of the best things you can do is just
- 1:31:03Speaker 1: forget about it go on the road. So I do
- 1:31:05Speaker 1: think it's a positive spot for them. Saint Louis lost
- 1:31:08Speaker 1: for US yesterday. They got outplayed, but they were winning
- 1:31:11Speaker 1: the game five to three Lates, so I'm pissed about it.
- 1:31:14Speaker 1: They're on a back to back although they're not traveling anywhere.
- 1:31:17Speaker 1: But to me, even though Saint Louis should show up
- 1:31:20Speaker 1: for a game against Vegas, Vegas is the better team,
- 1:31:22Speaker 1: and I think it's a more positive spot for Vegas.
- 1:31:24Speaker 1: You're gonna get a Vegas team. It's in a foul
- 1:31:27Speaker 1: mood after all those losses. Vegas up from minus one
- 1:31:30Speaker 1: forty minus one forty five, so they're favored on the
- 1:31:33Speaker 1: road here. Obviously the better team sixty four percent of
- 1:31:36Speaker 1: take its ninety seven percent of the cash on Vegas.
- 1:31:38Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that one. Vegas taking the money there.
- 1:31:42Speaker 1: Philadelphia going to Dallas after playing yesterday. Philadelphia pulled off
- 1:31:47Speaker 1: the win in overtime. Ersen was in net there, so
- 1:31:50Speaker 1: probably Vladar better goalie in net this time. It is
- 1:31:53Speaker 1: a back to back in a third game in four days,
- 1:31:55Speaker 1: though all in different cities. But probably expect Philadelphia to
- 1:31:59Speaker 1: try to show up for Dallas here, although that was
- 1:32:03Speaker 1: part of my handicapped yesterday, I think, and they would
- 1:32:05Speaker 1: overlook the Blues because they had Dallas on deck. Here.
- 1:32:11Speaker 1: Dallas is coming off crushing Montreal seven and nothing. They
- 1:32:14Speaker 1: went up to Canada and beat Ottawa and Montreal another.
- 1:32:17Speaker 1: Coming back home from that, I don't think it's a
- 1:32:19Speaker 1: great spot for Dallas returning from Canada like that off
- 1:32:22Speaker 1: of just a really satisfying win. Although Attinger will be
- 1:32:26Speaker 1: back in next so it was actually de Smith in
- 1:32:28Speaker 1: the shutout against Montreal. Dallas is a huge favorite at
- 1:32:32Speaker 1: minus two ten, eighty four percent of tickets, sixty four
- 1:32:35Speaker 1: percent of tickets, eighty three percent of the cash on them,
- 1:32:37Speaker 1: so the money indicating on Dallas. I slightly disagree with it, though,
- 1:32:41Speaker 1: even though I know Philadelphia went into overtime last night
- 1:32:45Speaker 1: a shootout actually, so I don't really want to play
- 1:32:47Speaker 1: on a team that did that the previous night. But
- 1:32:50Speaker 1: I don't love the spot for Dallas really, so certainly
- 1:32:54Speaker 1: not gonna be a game I want to get involved in.
- 1:32:56Speaker 1: A Winnipeg just lost pretty bad that the Seattle they're
- 1:33:00Speaker 1: going to Calgary. Winnipeg's been bad on this road trip,
- 1:33:03Speaker 1: so I do think Winnipeg will show up with some
- 1:33:04Speaker 1: focus here. Even though Calgary is not a good team.
- 1:33:09Speaker 1: Winnipeg the better team here and in a spot where
- 1:33:11Speaker 1: they might actually show show some focus. Calgary did just
- 1:33:14Speaker 1: break a losing streak at least, so they have some
- 1:33:16Speaker 1: positive momentum coming into this as well beating San Jose.
- 1:33:20Speaker 1: But when you have two teams where they're both going
- 1:33:23Speaker 1: to be focused, I think the better team wins out.
- 1:33:26Speaker 1: And that is Winnipeg up for minus one thirty five
- 1:33:28Speaker 1: to minus one thirty in on the money line, sixty
- 1:33:30Speaker 1: six percent of tickets, eighty three percent of the cash
- 1:33:32Speaker 1: on Winnipeg. So I'd probably play Winnipeg on the money
- 1:33:35Speaker 1: line in that one. And then San Jose at Seattle.
- 1:33:39Speaker 1: San Jose, I mean, San Jose continues to kind of
- 1:33:44Speaker 1: I think, play above their pay grade. They finally did
- 1:33:47Speaker 1: just lose a win streak at Calgary, losing a four
- 1:33:50Speaker 1: game win streak could hang San Jose over. Man. Sometimes
- 1:33:53Speaker 1: when you take a loss like that, you get hung
- 1:33:55Speaker 1: over to the next game. And they did win at
- 1:33:57Speaker 1: Seattle six to one on November fifth, so I think
- 1:34:00Speaker 1: Seattle is gonna remember that and be pissed about it.
- 1:34:02Speaker 1: So I justly think this is a revenge spot for
- 1:34:04Speaker 1: Seattle for that reason. Here for Seattle, though, they're coming
- 1:34:08Speaker 1: off a big win over Winnipeg, so it could debatably
- 1:34:11Speaker 1: be a letdown spot for Seattle as well. But because
- 1:34:13Speaker 1: San Jose did beat them, I don't really see them
- 1:34:15Speaker 1: overlooking San Jose, even though that was a big win
- 1:34:18Speaker 1: over Winnipeg. Lean to Seattle in this one for me.
- 1:34:21Speaker 1: They're down for minus forty five on the money line,
- 1:34:24Speaker 1: fifty three percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the
- 1:34:26Speaker 1: cash on Seattle. And that is it for hockey NBA.
- 1:34:32Speaker 1: Then we'll do the final football market read and then
- 1:34:34Speaker 1: we'll get out of here. The NBA nothing I'm really
- 1:34:36Speaker 1: interested in. Today. We have five games. Memphis at Cleveland
- 1:34:39Speaker 1: is the first game up. Memphis has been ass this year. Man.
- 1:34:43Speaker 1: I mean, they're just I don't know, They're a very
- 1:34:45Speaker 1: discombobulated team. I think Morant is a chemistry killer. Cleveland
- 1:34:50Speaker 1: lost at home to Toronto in their last game two
- 1:34:53Speaker 1: days ago, so they're playing a third game in four days.
- 1:34:55Speaker 1: But I think maybe they're gonna be angry about that
- 1:34:57Speaker 1: and show up with some focus here. They do it.
- 1:34:59Speaker 1: Milwauke up next, so and you could argue Milwaukee's a
- 1:35:01Speaker 1: little bit of a look ahead because that's a much
- 1:35:03Speaker 1: better opponent than Memphis. So I don't love the spot really.
- 1:35:09Speaker 1: Memphis on a three game losing street, although they lost
- 1:35:12Speaker 1: to Oklahoma City and then at New York and at Boston,
- 1:35:15Speaker 1: though they got crushed in those two road games. So
- 1:35:18Speaker 1: Memphis not playing well right now, though they've got so
- 1:35:22Speaker 1: embarrassed at that last game by my Boston Celtics. Maybe
- 1:35:25Speaker 1: Memphis will actually show up with some fire in this
- 1:35:28Speaker 1: game against Cleveland. I don't want anything to do with
- 1:35:32Speaker 1: the game. The money's coming in on Cleveland up from
- 1:35:34Speaker 1: ten to eleven and a half eighty two percent to
- 1:35:36Speaker 1: take US ninety eight percent of the cash on Cleveland.
- 1:35:38Speaker 1: As far as injury situation, because you always got to
- 1:35:41Speaker 1: look at that in the NBA, Garland looks like he's
- 1:35:44Speaker 1: still out. So that's the one big thing for Cleveland here.
- 1:35:48Speaker 1: Zach Edie game time decision from Memphis. I don't know
- 1:35:52Speaker 1: what his situation has been. He still hasn't played, so
- 1:35:56Speaker 1: Eadie might play for the first time here man so
- 1:35:59Speaker 1: from Memphis, they probably are gonna need him against Cleveland's bigs.
- 1:36:02Speaker 1: But if it's Edie's first game of the season, I
- 1:36:06Speaker 1: think that's kind of a chemistry killer in a way
- 1:36:09Speaker 1: because you have to like work it like, you have
- 1:36:11Speaker 1: to work him back in. Team has to get used
- 1:36:13Speaker 1: to him. You got to figure out your roles again.
- 1:36:15Speaker 1: So I don't love that if Edie comes back. Actually,
- 1:36:17Speaker 1: I would be more tempted to lay it with Cleveland here,
- 1:36:19Speaker 1: but I think with both teams coming off bad losses,
- 1:36:22Speaker 1: maybe the market is correct here and that you would
- 1:36:25Speaker 1: want to lean towards laying it with Cleveland because they
- 1:36:27Speaker 1: are the better team. Oklahoma City is going to Charlotte here.
- 1:36:32Speaker 1: Oklahoma City had a very satisfying win against the Lakers
- 1:36:35Speaker 1: on ESPN, and now they've had some time off, which
- 1:36:38Speaker 1: I think is a bad thing because when you're rolling
- 1:36:41Speaker 1: like this, you don't want to have that much time off.
- 1:36:43Speaker 1: For Oklahoma City and thrashing the Lakers like that on primetime,
- 1:36:47Speaker 1: you got to think this is a bit of a
- 1:36:48Speaker 1: letdown for Oklahoma City here starting a road trip, which
- 1:36:52Speaker 1: usually is a focused spot, but in this case, I
- 1:36:55Speaker 1: don't really know. I mean, it's a four and eight
- 1:36:57Speaker 1: Charlotte team really going to be a team that you're
- 1:36:59Speaker 1: really going to be focused on. But I can't do
- 1:37:02Speaker 1: Charlotte here either, because Charlotte's playing a third game in
- 1:37:04Speaker 1: four days and they played Milwaukee into overtime last night,
- 1:37:08Speaker 1: and they almost got a home and home sweep against Milwaukee,
- 1:37:11Speaker 1: which would have been huge off for Charlotte. So Charlotte
- 1:37:14Speaker 1: did that last night. And by the way, if you
- 1:37:15Speaker 1: had Charlotte plus the points in that game that almost
- 1:37:19Speaker 1: that seems like a game that I would have taken
- 1:37:22Speaker 1: a loss on because I would be like basically jumping
- 1:37:26Speaker 1: in front of traffic if I had Charlotte in that game.
- 1:37:29Speaker 1: Charlotte was a nine and a half point favorite, took
- 1:37:31Speaker 1: the game into overtime, and they lost the game by thirteen.
- 1:37:34Speaker 1: That is unbelievable, Like, if you had Charlotte in that game,
- 1:37:38Speaker 1: unbelievably bad beat in that one, although it was a
- 1:37:41Speaker 1: zigzag spot for Milwaukee in that one, So I think
- 1:37:44Speaker 1: that was part of my handicap. I just didn't know
- 1:37:46Speaker 1: what to do with that game. But after Charlotte took
- 1:37:48Speaker 1: Milwaukee into overtime like that and fell short like that
- 1:37:52Speaker 1: yesterday coming back home, I don't love the spot for
- 1:37:55Speaker 1: them either. Man. So the money is indicating on the
- 1:37:58Speaker 1: Hornets just because of the Thunder are just a massive
- 1:38:01Speaker 1: favorite up from fifteen to sixteen, ninety seven percent of tickets,
- 1:38:04Speaker 1: only ninety one percent of the couch on the Thunder.
- 1:38:06Speaker 1: Obviously the public are only going to come in on
- 1:38:08Speaker 1: the Thunder. I still think the spot is worse for
- 1:38:11Speaker 1: the Thunder because that win was just really, really a
- 1:38:15Speaker 1: good win. It was a very publicized win on national TV.
- 1:38:20Speaker 1: So I'd still probably lean to taking the points for Charlotte,
- 1:38:23Speaker 1: but I don't want to do it. Toronto and Indiana.
- 1:38:26Speaker 1: Indiana one win team right now and still dealing with
- 1:38:29Speaker 1: a lot of injury problems. Toronto coming off a win
- 1:38:32Speaker 1: over Cleveland, so it does look like a letdown spot
- 1:38:35Speaker 1: for Toronto. That was only two days ago, that was
- 1:38:36Speaker 1: a huge win over Cleveland. Now they're going to go
- 1:38:39Speaker 1: to Indiana. They might not really pay attention to Indiana.
- 1:38:42Speaker 1: So my initial lean would be like, yeah, you probably
- 1:38:45Speaker 1: want to look to fade Toronto here. Indiana's been just
- 1:38:48Speaker 1: getting messed up. But the problem I have with Indiana
- 1:38:51Speaker 1: is they're returning over from a road trip. But they
- 1:38:53Speaker 1: went out to Denver, then they went out to the
- 1:38:54Speaker 1: Pacific Coast Golden State, then back into elevation against Utah,
- 1:38:58Speaker 1: then down to Phoenix. Returning over from a road trip
- 1:39:01Speaker 1: is not a spot where I want to deal with
- 1:39:03Speaker 1: the team, especially a team that's not good right now
- 1:39:06Speaker 1: like Indiana. Sometimes those bad teams are even worse in
- 1:39:09Speaker 1: the return home spots, so I don't like it could
- 1:39:12Speaker 1: be a distracted spot. They do have Detroit up next
- 1:39:15Speaker 1: that you could argue might be a bigger game, a
- 1:39:17Speaker 1: bigger opponent, So yeah, I just don't love it. And
- 1:39:22Speaker 1: these guys are still injured for Indiana. Man, these guys
- 1:39:25Speaker 1: that have come back are injured again. Math Ron is out,
- 1:39:28Speaker 1: Nestsmith is out again tonight. So they got some injuries
- 1:39:30Speaker 1: to some of their role players there as well. Not good.
- 1:39:34Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna get involved in this game at all.
- 1:39:36Speaker 1: I mean, if you force my hand, I would still
- 1:39:38Speaker 1: probably take the points of the Pacers. But just because
- 1:39:41Speaker 1: the Raptors are in the letdown spot, but a team
- 1:39:45Speaker 1: returning over from a road trip like that, I don't
- 1:39:46Speaker 1: love it at all. Raptors seventy three percent of tickets,
- 1:39:49Speaker 1: only fifty seven percent of the cash, and they did
- 1:39:51Speaker 1: drop from seven to six and a half in that game.
- 1:39:55Speaker 1: Two big games to finish it off, though, The two
- 1:39:58Speaker 1: good games are both at eight pm, and they're basically
- 1:40:01Speaker 1: not even televised. Lakers and Milwaukee, so you gotta find
- 1:40:04Speaker 1: the streams for them. Lakers at Bucks at eight pm.
- 1:40:09Speaker 1: Lakers coming off that lost to Oklahoma City. Man, oh no, wait,
- 1:40:12Speaker 1: they bounced back from that. Never mind, they played yesterday,
- 1:40:14Speaker 1: my mistake. Lakers beat New Orleans coming off the lost
- 1:40:17Speaker 1: to Oklahoma City yesterday, so they did bounce back nicely.
- 1:40:22Speaker 1: But now LA is in a spot where they're playing
- 1:40:24Speaker 1: on a back to back, a third game in four days,
- 1:40:26Speaker 1: a fourth game in six days, and actually a fifth
- 1:40:29Speaker 1: game in eight days, all in different cities. So this
- 1:40:32Speaker 1: is very difficult for LA. Man, this is a jam
- 1:40:35Speaker 1: schedule right now, so it's not a good spot for LA.
- 1:40:41Speaker 1: From Milwaukee, they did play yesterday as well and playing
- 1:40:43Speaker 1: to overtime, but they are staying at home and they
- 1:40:46Speaker 1: almost got caught against Charlotte, so that might actually cause
- 1:40:49Speaker 1: Milwaukee to refocus a little bit. Got to look at
- 1:40:51Speaker 1: the Yannas situation though, because they think Giannis might have
- 1:40:54Speaker 1: still been out in this game. No, he played. Actually
- 1:40:56Speaker 1: my mistake. He came back and played his brother who
- 1:40:59Speaker 1: was on the score even though he wasn't. He didn't
- 1:41:02Speaker 1: even have any minutes. I don't know how that happened.
- 1:41:06Speaker 1: So Yannis is back, so that means if he is
- 1:41:08Speaker 1: playing tonight, that will be his second game back, I think.
- 1:41:11Speaker 1: So it's one game removed from the injured player spot.
- 1:41:14Speaker 1: That's actually a better spot from Milwaukee. He's not on
- 1:41:17Speaker 1: the injury report, so Giannis will be playing in this game.
- 1:41:21Speaker 1: So I'm gonna lean to the Bucks in this one.
- 1:41:23Speaker 1: The Lakers did move up from a pick him to one.
- 1:41:26Speaker 1: Here fifty three percent take us fifty nine percent of
- 1:41:28Speaker 1: the cash coming in on the Bucks, though, I'll agree
- 1:41:31Speaker 1: with it. The Lakers just have a very very bad
- 1:41:33Speaker 1: rest situation with both teams on the back to back,
- 1:41:36Speaker 1: but the rest in travel is definitely worse for the Lakers.
- 1:41:39Speaker 1: So Bucks will be the lean in that one. And
- 1:41:41Speaker 1: then Denver at Minnesota, and I'm almost tempted to give
- 1:41:47Speaker 1: out other Bucks. Actually, but I'm well, I mean, I
- 1:41:50Speaker 1: don't know, LA coming off whatever win against the Pelicans,
- 1:41:53Speaker 1: I can't do it. But Denver in Minnesota to finish
- 1:41:56Speaker 1: this off Denver and Minnesota. Denver's had a couple of
- 1:42:01Speaker 1: days off. They just won in LA. Now they're going
- 1:42:03Speaker 1: to Minnesota. This is a big game. Might be bigger
- 1:42:06Speaker 1: from Minnesota though, because Denver went into Minnesota and beat
- 1:42:08Speaker 1: them earlier this season. So a little bit of in
- 1:42:13Speaker 1: season revenge from Minnesota. But Minnesota played yesterday and they
- 1:42:16Speaker 1: covered against US bullshit on the Neon Green court. Even
- 1:42:22Speaker 1: though Neon green is my favorite color, I still hate
- 1:42:24Speaker 1: these NBA Cup courts, absolutely hate it. But Minnesota did
- 1:42:29Speaker 1: play yesterday, although they're rested prior to that and they
- 1:42:32Speaker 1: are staying at home. Probably shouldn't have covered that game.
- 1:42:38Speaker 1: But still Minnesota did play yesterday, so I don't know
- 1:42:40Speaker 1: if the spot sets up that great for them. And
- 1:42:42Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards did pretty much get a full compliment of minutes.
- 1:42:45Speaker 1: I think he was their leading scorer. At least it
- 1:42:50Speaker 1: is revenge for Minnesota, in season revenge. But the thing
- 1:42:52Speaker 1: that I pointed out about Minnesota that I really don't
- 1:42:54Speaker 1: like is they've lost every game that they played against
- 1:42:57Speaker 1: a good opponent this year. They're games that they played
- 1:43:00Speaker 1: gets good opponents. Where at home against Denver, which of
- 1:43:03Speaker 1: course this game also is at home against the Lakers,
- 1:43:06Speaker 1: on the road against the Knicks, and that's it. I
- 1:43:11Speaker 1: think those are those are their big games, and they
- 1:43:13Speaker 1: lost all of them. Did I miss one, oh and
- 1:43:17Speaker 1: away against the Lakers earlier in the season. Yeah, So
- 1:43:20Speaker 1: the four step up games that they've had, all of
- 1:43:22Speaker 1: their wins are against bad teams. So I don't like
- 1:43:24Speaker 1: that right now. For Minnesota, man, the fact they've all
- 1:43:27Speaker 1: eight wins have come against ugly teams except Portland, I
- 1:43:30Speaker 1: guess you could argue is okay, But every time they
- 1:43:33Speaker 1: played a team that's considered good, Minnesota's lost the game.
- 1:43:36Speaker 1: So that's not a great sign. The money is saying
- 1:43:41Speaker 1: the tea Wolves here, they're flipped from a two and
- 1:43:42Speaker 1: a half point dog to two and a half point favorite.
- 1:43:44Speaker 1: Seventy six percent tickets, only sixty six percent of the
- 1:43:47Speaker 1: cash on the Nuggets. So the Nuggets are a public
- 1:43:50Speaker 1: road underdog here, and you know, I don't like joining
- 1:43:52Speaker 1: the public when they're playing an underdog like this. But
- 1:43:55Speaker 1: the reason why the number ship that on Minnesota is
- 1:43:57Speaker 1: because Jokic is listening on the your report right now,
- 1:44:00Speaker 1: and that's the thing. Got to see what's going on
- 1:44:03Speaker 1: with Jokic. Man. But if Jogic doesn't play, I mean
- 1:44:07Speaker 1: he did play in their last game, I'm pretty sure.
- 1:44:09Speaker 1: So if Jokic doesn't play, I actually still would lean.
- 1:44:13Speaker 1: I would lean to the Nuggets heavier because it would
- 1:44:15Speaker 1: be an injured player spot, so you'd get extra value.
- 1:44:18Speaker 1: The line will probably move too far in favor of Minnesota.
- 1:44:21Speaker 1: I would actually lean to Denver if Jokic is not playing.
- 1:44:24Speaker 1: If he is going to play, then I'm kind of
- 1:44:27Speaker 1: more neutral on the game and maybe I would start
- 1:44:29Speaker 1: agreeing with the Tea Wolves. But the injured player spot,
- 1:44:32Speaker 1: you know, I always talking about it. You get more
- 1:44:33Speaker 1: value on that team, and they tend to step up
- 1:44:35Speaker 1: their level of play, So that's gonna do it. Oh
- 1:44:39Speaker 1: under in a Lakers box, I don't think I agree
- 1:44:42Speaker 1: with that. The money's agreeing with you. The money's coming
- 1:44:46Speaker 1: in on the under here, But I mean both teams
- 1:44:48Speaker 1: are in pretty difficult rest spots, which I think affects
- 1:44:51Speaker 1: a defense. So I don't love that, to be honest,
- 1:44:55Speaker 1: I don't know why the money's coming in on the
- 1:44:56Speaker 1: under on that one. I don't like it, but I'm
- 1:45:01Speaker 1: not really a totals guy that's gonna do it. Man
- 1:45:02Speaker 1: my plays today we have a ton. We have college football.
- 1:45:07Speaker 1: We have Notre Dame minus the points, Arkansas plus the points,
- 1:45:10Speaker 1: Michigan State plus the points as well, USC minus the points.
- 1:45:15Speaker 1: Hopefully you can get the best numbers on these still
- 1:45:17Speaker 1: in Miami minus the points. Go check out my show
- 1:45:20Speaker 1: from last night if you want the analysis, or my instagram.
- 1:45:23Speaker 1: Those ones are already up on my Instagram. Gotta get
- 1:45:26Speaker 1: all these other Instagram videos. In basketball, we're gonna have
- 1:45:29Speaker 1: Ohio plus the points, Boisey minus the points fairly, Dickinson
- 1:45:33Speaker 1: plus the points, Butthune Cookman plus the points, Gardner Web
- 1:45:37Speaker 1: plus the points, and you see Irvine minus the points.
- 1:45:41Speaker 1: I feel like I'm not restraining myself enough here. I
- 1:45:44Speaker 1: should just skip college basketball entirely, but hopefully at the
- 1:45:47Speaker 1: very least we if we go three and three in
- 1:45:50Speaker 1: college basketball, I'll be okay with it, with taking a
- 1:45:53Speaker 1: slight loss, even though of course the goal is to win.
- 1:45:55Speaker 1: But I'm not feeling confident. And then in hockey we
- 1:45:58Speaker 1: have the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Rangers both on
- 1:46:01Speaker 1: the money line. That's gonna do it. Thanks guys for
- 1:46:03Speaker 1: hanging out. Thank you sir, Thank you guys. Hell yeah,
- 1:46:09Speaker 1: good to see you guys again. Good to see you
- 1:46:11Speaker 1: guys always in the chat. Even though I'm a dick,
- 1:46:13Speaker 1: I apologize for that. I'm gonna ask. I'm stubborn. I
- 1:46:16Speaker 1: got opinions that I just refused to get off of.
- 1:46:19Speaker 1: I'm not feeling happy about last night, so let's have
- 1:46:21Speaker 1: a good one. I'm not happy about the fact I
- 1:46:23Speaker 1: have to put out all these Instagram videos too, So
- 1:46:25Speaker 1: that's gonna do it for now. Maybe I should start
- 1:46:28Speaker 1: going on TikTok, which it would be the same video
- 1:46:32Speaker 1: at least, so I still only have to record it once,
- 1:46:33Speaker 1: but i'd have to upload it to another place. Maybe
- 1:46:36Speaker 1: I can find a service that will upload it there
- 1:46:38Speaker 1: probably exists a service to upload it to both that once.
- 1:46:41Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. Learn it to on Twitter, learn
- 1:46:43Speaker 1: it soon on Instagram, Like and subscribe to the channel here.
- 1:46:46Speaker 1: Of course, leave me some good comments that all helps
- 1:46:48Speaker 1: me out. Toadstool Sports now. It's also available on audio.
- 1:46:53Speaker 1: Give me a good review on there, Spotify, and Applele.
- 1:46:55Speaker 1: That helps me out, and listening over there helps me
- 1:46:57Speaker 1: out as well. Covering you because my channel on YouTube
- 1:47:01Speaker 1: and Patreon dot com Stash learned to toe if you
- 1:47:03Speaker 1: want to throw some support my way, which is really
- 1:47:05Speaker 1: mostly just support, but you do get a Spotify feed
- 1:47:08Speaker 1: with yuke stuff right now and you requests. That's gonna
- 1:47:13Speaker 1: do it. Have a good one, everybody, and I'll be
- 1:47:14Speaker 1: back tonight. Of course with the NFL show. I've got
- 1:47:17Speaker 1: a couple of games that I like in the NFL.
- 1:47:20Speaker 1: It's gonna end up being probably two or three plays
- 1:47:22Speaker 1: in the NFL for me this week. I really don't
- 1:47:24Speaker 1: like the board much, but maybe when I dig into
- 1:47:26Speaker 1: it a little bit further, other things will reveal themselves
- 1:47:30Speaker 1: to me. But we'll see easier to go viral on TikTok.
- 1:47:35Speaker 1: Probably that's true. I just I don't understand TikTok at all.
- 1:47:39Speaker 1: It's I don't know. I don't know. Oh, only fans
- 1:47:45Speaker 1: people do it, Yeah, like put stuff on multiple different Yeah,
- 1:47:49Speaker 1: I'll go. I'll go ask the whores. I'll go ask
- 1:47:52Speaker 1: the e thoughts what they do. Even though I'm a
- 1:47:55Speaker 1: tech guy, but I'll ask them and see if they
- 1:47:57Speaker 1: know more. Than me. That's gonna do it. Have a
- 1:47:59Speaker 1: good day everybody. Thanks for hanging out and peace