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How Hezbollah and the Houthis will react to a Trump Iran strike · The Front

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  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Thursday, January twenty nine, twenty twenty six. Inflations out
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  Speaker 1: of the box again and that means interest rates are
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  Speaker 1: likely on the way back up. Now. The federal government's
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  Speaker 1: coming under pressure to reform the economy and get Commonwealth
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  Speaker 1: spending under control. That story and all our analysis is
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  Speaker 1: life right now at the Australian dot com dot au.
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump calls it a beautiful armada, an American aircraft
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  Speaker 1: carrier group now pointing its missiles directly at Iran. That
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  Speaker 1: means now is the moment the President must either back
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  Speaker 1: down or come good on his threats to strike the
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  Speaker 1: regime that oppresses its people and promises to wipe out
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  Speaker 1: the great Satans Israel and America. But will Trump actually strike?
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  Speaker 1: And how wood Iran's terror proxies, HESBLA and the Hoothy's react.
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  Speaker 1: That's today's story. Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent,
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  Speaker 1: And just when we thought it was safe to look
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  Speaker 1: away from the Middle East, there's been another development that
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  Speaker 1: means we all need to start locking on again. An
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  Speaker 1: American aircraft carrier has arrived in the Middle East. Cam
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  Speaker 1: just paint a picture for us of what that means
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  Speaker 1: for the Middle East, Well, Claire.
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  Speaker 2: The aircraft carrier is the USS Abraham Lincoln, one of
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  Speaker 2: the premiere US naval assets available to Donald Trump. It's
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  Speaker 2: not alone though, It's got three warships accompanying in. Each
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  Speaker 2: of those have numerous Tomahawk long range missiles. There's several
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  Speaker 2: other US warships in the Straits of mus nearby as well.
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  Speaker 2: America has deployed more E fifteen warplanes and also air
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  Speaker 2: defenses to the region. So cumulatively, what Donald Trump has
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  Speaker 2: ordered is a huge buildup of military power in the region,
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  Speaker 2: bigger than the one that he deployed to the Caribbean
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  Speaker 2: prior to the kidnapping of the Venezuelan president.
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  Speaker 3: It was a force against a heavily fortified military fortress
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  Speaker 3: in the heart of Caracas to bring outlaw dictator Nicholas
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  Speaker 3: Maduro to justice. This was one of the most stunning,
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  Speaker 3: effective and powerful displays of American military might and competence
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  Speaker 3: in American history.
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  Speaker 2: And so what this gives the US is the ability
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  Speaker 2: if it wants to launch a comprehensive strike on Iran,
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  Speaker 2: and just as importantly for the White House to protect
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  Speaker 2: US troops already based in the Middle East in Iraq
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  Speaker 2: and Syria from reprisal strikes from Urans. All of a sudden,
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump has a lot of options on the table.
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  Speaker 2: His chest pieces are in place. He now has to
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  Speaker 2: decide what he wants to do with him.
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  Speaker 1: It's a big twist in the unrest that's been going
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  Speaker 1: on in Iran. It started with shopkeepers revolting against the
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  Speaker 1: economic conditions that they're living through. It spread to pretty
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  Speaker 1: widespread social unrest in Irana, and then there was a
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  Speaker 1: vicious crackdown. Donald Trump initially indicated that he would come
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  Speaker 1: to the aid of the protesters. He warned the government
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  Speaker 1: not to execute them and not to start killing people.
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  Speaker 1: They seem to do that anyway, and then nothing happened.
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  Speaker 1: So is this what was happening all along? That Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump was actually just positioning his forces and it's not
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  Speaker 1: that he's lost interest in making a strike on I run.
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  Speaker 2: Well, that's the great question, because certainly Donald Trump was
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  Speaker 2: very keen to strike around at the point when the
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  Speaker 2: regime was cracking down that very very bloody crackdown. My
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  Speaker 2: protesters left at least five thousand people did. He was
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  Speaker 2: very king to do it. Then you've got military advice saying, look,
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  Speaker 2: we just haven't got our maximum amount of forces in
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  Speaker 2: the region. That makes any reprisal attacks from Iran. That
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  Speaker 2: makes us many US troops a little vulnerable, but also
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  Speaker 2: Israel as well. Benjamin Ettnie, who is not shy about
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  Speaker 2: getting into a conflict, actually warned Donald Trump, please can
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  Speaker 2: you delay in the attack because we're concerned about reprisals
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  Speaker 2: from Iran. So really Trump has been playing for time
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  Speaker 2: to get these forces into place now, but it's a
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  Speaker 2: little bit more difficult for him now to suddenly launch
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  Speaker 2: the attack in the sense that the killings have stopped
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  Speaker 2: for the moment, the protests have stopped, and so it
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  Speaker 2: would look a little bit more provocative to the region
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  Speaker 2: perhaps if he actually went in at this minute. But
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  Speaker 2: this is the choice that he's going to face. And
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  Speaker 2: I think we should remember in all of this clear
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  Speaker 2: that when the US and Israel attacked Iran's nuclear sites
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  Speaker 2: in June last year, they both deliberately gave the impression
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  Speaker 2: that they weren't going to do it, and Donald Trump,
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  Speaker 2: in a similar fashion this week, has been playing with words,
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  Speaker 2: saying maybe we will, maybe we won't.
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  Speaker 4: By the way, there's another beautiful Aromata floating beautifully toward
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  Speaker 4: Iran right now, so we'll see.
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  Speaker 3: I hope they make a deal.
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  Speaker 4: I hope they make a deal. They should have made
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  Speaker 4: a deal the first time they have a country.
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  Speaker 2: He's really not giving an indication he's definitely going to
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  Speaker 2: do it, but that doesn't mean that he hasn't already
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  Speaker 2: decided to do it, because that's what he did last gun.
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  Speaker 1: There's so much mystery surrounding what's really going on in Iran.
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  Speaker 1: Cam do we know yet what impact those stripes had
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  Speaker 1: on Iran's nuclear capability and whether they really said Iran
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  Speaker 1: back or not.
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  Speaker 2: There's been lots of conflicting reports, but the general consensus
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  Speaker 2: that there is such a thing. And look, we should say,
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  Speaker 2: you know, intelligence on nuclear weapons and programs is famously uncertain. Numan.
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  Speaker 2: We all remember the WMB scandal in Iraq back in
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  Speaker 2: the other two thousands. Indeed, the facts and iraqs behavior
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  Speaker 2: show that Sadam Hussein and his regime are concealing their
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  Speaker 2: efforts to produce more weapons of mass destruction. I take
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  Speaker 2: the fact that he develops weapons of mass destruction very seriously,
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  Speaker 2: and basically it can't be certain, but Iran's nuclear facilities
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  Speaker 2: are considered to have been knocked back by about five
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  Speaker 2: to ten years their progress towards getting military grade uranium
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  Speaker 2: and setting a nuclear program, a military nuclear program into action.
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  Speaker 2: So look, it was successful. The level of degrading that happened,
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  Speaker 2: we don't really know. But you know what Trump would
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  Speaker 2: probably if he was going to strike Iran again, I
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  Speaker 2: think you'd find that he would go again to the
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  Speaker 2: nuclear sites as part of a big suite of targets,
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  Speaker 2: because he'd like to get that degraded even further if possible.
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  Speaker 1: There are reports that Iran Supreme leader, the IOLA, has
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  Speaker 1: gone into hiding cam What would be the point of
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  Speaker 1: an American attack on Iran? Now, would it be regime change?
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  Speaker 2: Well, the intelligence assessments given to Donald Trump have been
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  Speaker 2: that an attack on Iran won't change the regime. That's
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  Speaker 2: a question for Trump is what is the point of
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  Speaker 2: smashing Iran if it's not going to change the regime.
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  Speaker 2: That's really something he's got to weigh up. But the
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  Speaker 2: thing is that any attack on Iran Claire does weaken
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  Speaker 2: the regime. It weakens it further. It makes it more
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  Speaker 2: toothless as far as any future a tax go on Israel.
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  Speaker 2: It makes it more toothless as far as its ability
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  Speaker 2: to fund terrorism around the world. And it does give
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  Speaker 2: at least lip service to Donald Trump's promise that he
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  Speaker 2: would quote help the protest movement. Of course, he did
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  Speaker 2: not do so when the protests and the actual killings happening,
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  Speaker 2: but it will at least give some sort of sense
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  Speaker 2: that the America is behind this movement in a long
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  Speaker 2: term fashion. And so you couple that with the potential
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  Speaker 2: to knock back some of those nuclear sites again and
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  Speaker 2: degrade their overall military capability. That's the attraction for Donald
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  Speaker 2: Trump in this and that's really the benefit of him
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  Speaker 2: when he's considering the risk reward analysis.
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  Speaker 1: One of the ways Iran has flexed its muscle in
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  Speaker 1: the region over the years has been funding proxies terror
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  Speaker 1: militias in other countries. The hoof Is in Yemen, Hesbela
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  Speaker 1: in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza. The past year has
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  Speaker 1: seen huge degradation of the capabilities of those forces. As
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  Speaker 1: far as we know now, there is talk that Hesbella
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  Speaker 1: may actually be a fighting force that could come to
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  Speaker 1: Iran's aid. What do we know about starting with Hesbela
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  Speaker 1: their capacity right now?
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  Speaker 2: Yes, so interesting because Iran's terror proxies have been so degraded,
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  Speaker 2: as you say, over the past two years, and they've
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  Speaker 2: come in selectively on this question as to whether they
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  Speaker 2: might help Iran.
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  Speaker 1: Now.
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  Speaker 2: Hesbela is very interesting because it has kept very low profile.
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  Speaker 2: It's been quietly trying to rearm itself. It's been funded
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  Speaker 2: by Iran, and it is keeping a low profile because
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  Speaker 2: it knows if it raises its head it will be
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  Speaker 2: attacked very severely by Israel. So Hesbela has been very careful.
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  Speaker 2: In fact, Hesbela has hedged, has not said that it
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  Speaker 2: would help Iran if Iran was hit by the United States,
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  Speaker 2: which is really interesting because I think Hesbela has decided
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  Speaker 2: it's better to build up quietly rather than have some
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  Speaker 2: sort of performative series of minor missile strikes that we
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  Speaker 2: just result in it being more severely damaged by Israel
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  Speaker 2: than actually getting involved in this conflict, if indeed there
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  Speaker 2: is a conflict. But the other Iranian proxies have taken
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  Speaker 2: a slightly different position. Clearanian militia in Iraq. One of
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  Speaker 2: those groups has said that it will join the fight
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  Speaker 2: against a US if indeed the US does attack Iran,
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  Speaker 2: and the Huthi rebels in Yemen have suggested without saying openly,
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  Speaker 2: that they will renew their attacks on international shipping in
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  Speaker 2: the Red Sea if indeed the US does attack Iran. Now, look,
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  Speaker 2: we don't know whether these are just sort of bravado
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  Speaker 2: or boasts, but certainly on the part of the Houthis,
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  Speaker 2: they do tend to actually follow through on their threats,
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  Speaker 2: and so that is another factor which is interesting because
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  Speaker 2: the Huthis and the other pro Iranian militia in Iraq
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  Speaker 2: did not join in during the Twelve Day War and
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  Speaker 2: during last year. So it's a really interesting situation to
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  Speaker 2: see exactly how the proxies terror proxies of Iran will
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  Speaker 2: behave if indeed they are attacked.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up, So, if Trump acts or if he backs out,
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  Speaker 1: where does that leave the people of Iran and the
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  Speaker 1: rest of the Middle East? If Donald Trump doesn't do anything. Now,
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  Speaker 1: if this is just a military exercise or a show
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  Speaker 1: of force and that carrier eventually goes somewhere else, what
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  Speaker 1: will that mean for Trump's flexing of muscle and power.
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  Speaker 1: Will it diminish his ability to make threats in the future.
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  Speaker 2: He would be I think slightly embarrassed if nothing comes
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  Speaker 2: off such a massive military build up, And that would
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  Speaker 2: come on top of him having to retreat on the
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  Speaker 2: question of Greenland, him having to retreat to some degree
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  Speaker 2: on the question of regime change in Venezuela, having successfully
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  Speaker 2: kidnapped Maduro, and upon his very unpopular comments about Allied
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  Speaker 2: help in Afghanistan as well. So, look, Trump's had a
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  Speaker 2: very bad week, and I think that he would certainly
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  Speaker 2: be reluctant to look like a paper tiger on Iran
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  Speaker 2: after having spoken so strongly about it for so long.
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  Speaker 2: But you know, it is a massive decision Claire to
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  Speaker 2: actually launch a big strike on Iran at this point,
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  Speaker 2: it's one of the most important decisions facing him as
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  Speaker 2: president because it has ramifications that go well beyond these strikes.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, potentially there's all sorts of instability that it
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  Speaker 2: could trigger throughout the region. Interestingly, America's Arab allies in
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  Speaker 2: the Middle East are not supportive of this. Saudi Arabia
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  Speaker 2: and the UAE have said we're not going to allow
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  Speaker 2: America to use our airspace. We're not going to be
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  Speaker 2: a part of this if it goes ahead. And the
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  Speaker 2: reason why is not because they love Iran, they certainly don't,
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  Speaker 2: but they fear a very unstable Iran is worse than
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  Speaker 2: the status quo. And that's why America, in doing this,
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  Speaker 2: will be doing it without those Arab allies walking alongside it.
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  Speaker 1: Well, that's the other question, isn't it cam If he
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  Speaker 1: does go ahead and there is regime fall in Iran.
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  Speaker 1: We saw in Syria great celebrations at the fall of
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  Speaker 1: a despotic regime and then chaos. Regardless of what I
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  Speaker 1: think most right thinking people would agree, is the need
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  Speaker 1: for Iranians to be able to live their lives in
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  Speaker 1: peace without morality police beating them to death. Is it
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  Speaker 1: risky for the region for this regime in Iran to fall?
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  Speaker 2: Look, I think while the West, including the US Claire
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  Speaker 2: would love this regime befall, it's been nothing but repressive
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  Speaker 2: and horrific for the Iranian people. You're absolutely right. Vacuums
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  Speaker 2: are dangerous. Also, we saw Isis rise through the vacuum
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  Speaker 2: in Iraq. History suggests that these are very perilous times
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  Speaker 2: when this happens and It's been suggested that one of
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  Speaker 2: the reasons why the US has chosen until this time
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  Speaker 2: not to actually assassinate the Supreme Leader of iran ityl Hamani,
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  Speaker 2: is simply because it doesn't want to have this complete
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  Speaker 2: chaos and this sort of very vicious power battle that
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  Speaker 2: would happen if indeed he was assassinated. So it's a
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  Speaker 2: tricky balance for the US to strike, and it's a
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  Speaker 2: tricky balance for the Trump White House at a time
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  Speaker 2: when it's had a few setbacks.
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. Thanks Cam pleasure.
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  Speaker 1: You can read Cam's reporting and all our unrivaled analysis
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: of the world right now at the Australian dot com
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  Speaker 1: dou