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Trump, GOP Rally for Mississippi Seat · Balance of Power

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
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Speaker 2: Podcasts. Radio.
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Speaker 3: News.
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Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 4: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch
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Speaker 4: us live on YouTube.
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Speaker 5: Kicking off another busy week of travel for President Trump,
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Speaker 5: who will once again be crisscrossing typically red areas of
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Speaker 5: the country in his final push toward the midterms, which
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Speaker 5: are now just eight days away. Today, as we've told you,
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Speaker 5: he will be in Mississippi, followed by Texas tomorrow, Ohio Wednesday,
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Speaker 5: South Carolina on Thursday, Florida on Friday. This past weekend,
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Speaker 5: of course, he visited two other battlegrounds, though Michigan perhaps
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Speaker 5: is a bit more of a swing state than some
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Speaker 5: of the others he will visit this week. So, too,
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Speaker 5: is Georgia, where he spent the day on Saturday and
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Speaker 5: where he had a. Few remarks about the price of
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Speaker 5: oil and gasoline, which, of course, remains at elevated levels,
1:03
Speaker 5: as we just told you. On average, gas prices at
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Speaker 5: the pump are now higher under Trump than they were
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Speaker 5: under the years of President Biden. And yet President Trump
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Speaker 5: suggests that it's actually a good thing and the country
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Speaker 5: is making more money. This is what he said Saturday.
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Speaker 6: They're making hundreds of billions of dollars. Our country is
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Speaker 6: on oil. And then on top of it, we have
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Speaker 6: Venezuela and we have Greenland because somebody would say the
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Speaker 6: fake news. He's bragging about making money while people are
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Speaker 6: suffering at the, you know, because, you know, you're still
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Speaker 6: paying lower than Biden and Obama. No, I could just
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Speaker 6: see the fake headlines. President Trump is talking about all
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Speaker 6: the money they're making while people are suffering at the pump.
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Speaker 6: That'll be the headline. But I said, I don't give
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Speaker 6: a damn. I'm going to say it. We'll make it
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Speaker 6: a freaking fortune. Our country is getting stronger and stronger
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Speaker 6: all the time.
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Speaker 2: He'll be back on the stump this evening and we'll
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Speaker 2: be watching and listening. Let's get to the White House first.
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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall is back from her tour
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Speaker 2: of the cornfields and politics of Kansas.
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Speaker 1: And holding fourth on the North Lawn. Tyler, this headline's
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Speaker 1: a tough one.
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Speaker 2: The average price Americans are paying for gasoline under President
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Speaker 2: Trump has overtaken the average during the Biden administration. So
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Speaker 2: is he just going for broke with comments like these?
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Speaker 7: Well, Joe, as you both gave the important context here,
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Speaker 7: of course, there has been higher gas prices under the
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Speaker 7: last administration at different times and that this is a
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Speaker 7: very slight uptick. We're talking about less than a cent
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Speaker 7: when it comes to the overall average. But it does,
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Speaker 7: as you mentioned, take away a very key talking point
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Speaker 7: for President Trump, which at least up to this point
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Speaker 7: had been that he had helped to maintain lower gas
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Speaker 7: prices compared last to the Biden administration. But what's really
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Speaker 7: fueling it is that we have seen such a higher
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Speaker 7: amount sustained for longer. Today, the national average for a
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Speaker 7: gallon of gas, $ 4.
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Speaker 8: 29.
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Speaker 7: For a gallon of diesel, $ 6.
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Speaker 8: 35, according to AAA.
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Speaker 7: Now, with that said, you heard what the president is
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Speaker 7: trying to pitch on the campaign trail here, trying to
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Speaker 7: pitch his own economic agenda. Even as we know, the
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Speaker 7: cost of living remains the number one issue for American voters.
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Speaker 7: heading into next week. And perhaps the underscoring here is
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Speaker 7: the fact that the president has been having to make
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Speaker 7: those trips to some reliably red states as economic headwinds
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Speaker 7: still pose this challenge for Republicans nationwide.
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Speaker 5: Yeah, Mississippi exhibit A, where he'll be tonight. Tyler, how
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Speaker 5: close is the Senate contest there?
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Speaker 7: So the context here is that the Cook Political Report
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Speaker 7: recently moved this reliably red state from solid Republican to
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Speaker 7: likely Republican. That still means Democrats will face an uphill
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Speaker 7: battle when it comes to this state, but it is
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Speaker 7: much closer than expected. And Democrats clearly see an opportunity here,
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Speaker 7: one with their candidate, Scott Colombe, who really went viral
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Speaker 7: over an ad attacking the incumbent Senator Cindy Hyde Smith
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Speaker 7: over cost of living, and in particular, one remark she
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Speaker 7: made about how costly it is when it comes to
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Speaker 7: beef prices. But you sort of gave the important context
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Speaker 7: to this race. President Trump won Mississippi by 23 percentage
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Speaker 7: points in 2024. The county he's going to tonight, he
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Speaker 7: won by 69 percentage points. So we're expecting it to
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Speaker 7: be a very friendly crowd because he is really trying
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Speaker 7: to to rally up the base, trying to get people
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Speaker 7: to go out to the polls because we're going to
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Speaker 7: be watching turnout very closely on election night. And even
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Speaker 7: if Americans are unhappy with the current state of the economy,
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Speaker 7: do they still go out and vote for Republicans? So
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Speaker 7: a lot to watch in this race. But keep in mind,
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Speaker 7: a Democrat hasn't won a U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi
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Speaker 7: since 1982.
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Speaker 5: It's been decades. All right, Tyler Kendall, live at the
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Speaker 5: White House for us. Tyler, thank you so much. And
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Speaker 5: she mentioned that the Cook Political Report has moved the
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Speaker 5: Mississippi Senate race a bit toward Democrats, even if it
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Speaker 5: is still seen as leans Republican. The Cook Political Report's
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Speaker 5: been moving a lot of races lately, not just in
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Speaker 5: the Senate, but in the House, too, including this past Friday,
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Speaker 5: moving 19 House races in the direction of Democrats. That
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Speaker 5: is the decision making of Erin Covey, who is the U.S.
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Speaker 5: House editor for the Cook Political Report. And she's joining
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Speaker 5: us once again now on Balance of Power. Erin, it's
5:26
Speaker 5: great to have you back on Bloomberg. Those 19 race
5:30
Speaker 5: moves followed a series of moves we have seen by Cook,
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Speaker 5: all of them in the direction of Democrats. Is there
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Speaker 5: a single House district you are looking at across the
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Speaker 5: country that you see moving more toward Republicans, at least
5:43
Speaker 5: in terms of the battlegrounds?
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Speaker 9: Look, I mean, all of these places are moving towards Democrats.
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Speaker 10: I think we are expecting a blue wave this cycle,
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Speaker 10: but it's not going to hit every part of the
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Speaker 10: country evenly.
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Speaker 9: I think the places where we're.
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Speaker 10: Seeing the most erosion for Republicans right now are in
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Speaker 10: places like Texas and North Carolina, where you have Senate
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Speaker 10: races that are really impacting these House races as well.
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Speaker 10: Particularly in North Carolina, Republicans... I've talked to are really
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Speaker 10: concerned about depressed Republican turnout. So we saw two previously
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Speaker 10: safe Republican seats move to likely Republican last week. We've
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Speaker 10: also shifted to other hyper-competitive races. North Carolina's 11th and
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Speaker 10: first districts to the left in recent weeks. And so
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Speaker 10: it does look like Democrats are poised to pick up
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Speaker 10: seats in North Carolina, despite the fact that Republicans redrew
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Speaker 10: the map last year in order to make it easier
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Speaker 10: for them to pick up a seat.
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Speaker 7: Hmm.
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Speaker 1: Aaron, it's great to have you back.
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Speaker 2: I've been looking forward to it because I want to
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Speaker 2: get to the why. We know that affordability is a
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Speaker 2: huge issue, that the war in Iran has been a
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Speaker 2: huge issue, tariffs and so forth, all colliding on this
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Speaker 2: affordability matter.
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Speaker 1: But how do we, eight days out.
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Speaker 2: Explain the continued erosion, the acceleration toward Democrats that you're seeing?
7:01
Speaker 2: Or should we believe that prices are continuing to rise?
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Speaker 2: Are people just starting to pay attention? Or are they
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Speaker 2: trying to latch on to what they see as a winner?
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Speaker 9: It's more that people are starting to pay attention.
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Speaker 10: It's not necessarily that the environment itself has shifted that much.
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Speaker 10: But we are now seeing, particularly the house level, we
7:19
Speaker 10: do not see a lot of heavy ad spending until
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Speaker 10: after Labor Day.
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Speaker 11: And so.
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Speaker 10: At this point, we have a lot more polling data
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Speaker 10: in all of these places, and we can start to
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Speaker 10: actually move districts based on where the polls have it at.
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Speaker 10: And so that is the result. That is the reason
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Speaker 10: for a lot of these moves at the House level.
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Speaker 10: In particular, we're also seeing the party's spending decisions. We
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Speaker 10: have seen the Trump super PACs go into a number
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Speaker 10: of what were previously fairly safe or Republican-leaning.
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Speaker 9: Districts that now look increasingly competitive.
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Speaker 10: So This is seen by both parties that the map
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Speaker 10: has really been expanding over the last couple of weeks.
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Speaker 5: Well, do you see Democrats as having the resources to
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Speaker 5: really play to the extent that the possibilities may present
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Speaker 5: themselves in some of these areas? Erin, are there areas
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Speaker 5: that you are seeing that you believe could have gone
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Speaker 5: to a Democrat if the resources were provided and they
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Speaker 5: aren't being?
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Speaker 10: I think there are definitely going to be districts that
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Speaker 10: have closer races than expected that neither party invested in.
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Speaker 10: And there is going to be a lot of questions about, OK,
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Speaker 10: if there had been some Democratic super PAC money that
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Speaker 10: came in here, could they have closed the gap? But
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Speaker 10: I think we're also seeing a lot of Republican incumbents
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Speaker 10: are anticipating a blue wave cycle. And we're seeing Republican
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Speaker 10: incumbents in seats that Trump won by more than 20
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Speaker 10: points go up on TV with ads touting what they're
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Speaker 10: doing to address the affordability crisis. And that's just an indication,
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Speaker 10: not necessarily that these folks are going to lose, but
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Speaker 10: that they're seeing polls that show that they're in much
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Speaker 10: closer races than they were in last cycle. And so
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Speaker 10: I do think that, you know, Democrats, um, money disadvantage
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Speaker 10: is going to probably prevent them from picking up some
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Speaker 10: of these seats that may have been riper for pickup
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Speaker 10: had the Republican spending not been as strong. But I
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Speaker 10: think Democrats are poised to pick up probably anywhere from
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Speaker 10: 12 to 22, maybe even 25 seats in the House.
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Speaker 10: So they look like they're on track to have a
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Speaker 10: pretty decent majority regardless.
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Speaker 2: What do you make of Speaker Mike Johnson's comments over
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Speaker 2: the weekend, Erin? Of course, he needs to project some
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Speaker 2: optimism here so people don't simply stay home. But he
9:29
Speaker 2: stated as a matter of fact that the polls are
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Speaker 2: wrong and they are based on flawed data. We obviously
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Speaker 2: aren't going to know for sure until Tuesday night into Wednesday,
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Speaker 2: but I wonder how you react to that based on
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Speaker 2: the number of polls that you're exposed to on a
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Speaker 2: daily basis in your own analysis.
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Speaker 10: We never know how polling error is going to go
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Speaker 10: cycle to cycle. But what we have seen, at least
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Speaker 10: in the past decade, is that typically in the presidential
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Speaker 10: election cycles, polling has underestimated Republicans' strength. cycles in 2018
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Speaker 10: and 2022, the polling was pretty accurate. And all the
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Speaker 10: polling that I have seen so far shows that there
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Speaker 10: are a lot of places where Republican incumbents are not
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Speaker 10: winning a majority of the vote. Now, of course, whether
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Speaker 10: or not a Democrat can actually close that gap remains
10:17
Speaker 10: to be seen in a lot of these places. And
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Speaker 10: I think that the polling that I've seen from both sides, though,
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Speaker 10: really does show an environment that is quite tough for Republicans.
10:28
Speaker 10: We'll see whether or not it ends up being correct.
10:31
Speaker 10: I'll remind viewers that in 2025, a lot of the
10:34
Speaker 10: polling actually underestimated Democrats' gains in places like Virginia and
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Speaker 10: New Jersey. And so we just really have no idea
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Speaker 10: until we actually get past Election Day how accurate these
10:45
Speaker 10: polls will be. But the polls that we're looking at
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Speaker 10: are trustworthy. These are sources that are not doing shady
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Speaker 10: things with their methodology, and they have a track record
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Speaker 10: of being pretty on the nose.
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Speaker 5: Well, Erin, you mentioned Virginia, which reminds me to ask
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Speaker 5: you about the fact that Virginia obviously tried to redraw
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Speaker 5: its congressional map to favor Democrats, would have seen them
11:07
Speaker 5: pick up four seats until it was rejected by the
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Speaker 5: state Supreme Court. Other states, though, were successful, most notably
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Speaker 5: Texas and Florida, which were redrawn. on Republicans behalf. When
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Speaker 5: you gave us that figure a minute ago about Democrats
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Speaker 5: potentially being able to pick up as many as 25 seats,
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Speaker 5: how many Democratic wins in those redrawn districts do you
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Speaker 5: think factor into that number?
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Speaker 10: I think in the redrawn districts, the difficulty that Republicans
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Speaker 10: have is they are not going to pick up the
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Speaker 10: number of seats that they hoped that they would. And
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Speaker 10: that is because the political environment is so tough for them.
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Speaker 10: It's not necessarily that these maps are not performing as anticipated.
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Speaker 10: In Texas, for example, Republicans were hoping to pick up
11:47
Speaker 10: as many as five seats as a result of redistricting.
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Speaker 9: They may only pick up one or two seats.
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Speaker 10: So it doesn't necessarily mean that the map is backfiring
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Speaker 10: for them. It's just not performing the way that Republicans
12:00
Speaker 10: had hoped. And then in Virginia, of course, you know,
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Speaker 10: Democrats could pick up as many as three seats on
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Speaker 10: a very, very good night for them. I think the
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Speaker 10: number will probably be closer to one.
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Speaker 9: Between one and two. But we have a lot.
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Speaker 10: Of states that are full of these seats that Trump
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Speaker 10: won by anywhere from 10 to 20 points that would
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Speaker 10: not be particularly competitive were we not in the environment
12:22
Speaker 10: that we're at right now. And so these seats are
12:24
Speaker 10: coming online pretty late. And some Republican incumbents are quite
12:28
Speaker 10: prepared for them, others maybe.
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Speaker 12: Not so much.
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Speaker 2: I can't imagine what your desk looks like right now.
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Speaker 2: I don't know how you keep all these districts Straight, Erin.
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Speaker 2: It is a real talent. Do you expect to have
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Speaker 2: another reset on races this week or between now and
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Speaker 2: Election Day?
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Speaker 9: You know, we'll see.
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Speaker 10: We also moved the Ohio governor's race last week from
12:48
Speaker 10: toss up to lean Democrat. There may be a handful
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Speaker 10: of more House ratings changes or Senate ratings.
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Speaker 1: How much of that was because of the ad, Erin?
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Speaker 9: A lot of it was driven by the ad. That's correct.
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Speaker 10: But I think that going into that, it was clear
13:03
Speaker 10: that Acton had started to develop a little bit of
13:06
Speaker 10: a lead, and that was before the.
13:07
Speaker 9: Ad came out.
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Speaker 1: So the ad kind of just pushed you over the
13:10
Speaker 1: ledge on that one?
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Speaker 9: That's correct.
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Speaker 5: Well, so Erin, in a state like Ohio, if you
13:16
Speaker 5: see the gubernatorial race now leaning more toward the Democrat,
13:20
Speaker 5: I wonder how closely together in many of these battleground
13:23
Speaker 5: states you see the fate of the gubernatorial candidate, the
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Speaker 5: Senate candidate, and then candidates in some of these House
13:28
Speaker 5: districts as being tied together? How much will what happens
13:33
Speaker 5: up the ballot, at the top of the ticket, matter
13:36
Speaker 5: in some of these races, be it Ohio or Iowa,
13:38
Speaker 5: even a state like Florida?
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Speaker 10: It makes a huge difference because these statewide races, those
13:44
Speaker 10: are what are driving turnout, particularly on the Democratic side.
13:48
Speaker 10: If you have a highly competitive Senate race in a
13:50
Speaker 10: state like Texas that hasn't seen a really competitive Senate
13:53
Speaker 10: race since 2018, of course, Democrats are going to be
13:56
Speaker 10: a lot more motivated to turn out than they would
13:58
Speaker 10: have been In another midterm cycle, on the flip side,
14:01
Speaker 10: in states like New York, we may not see a
14:03
Speaker 10: big shift to the left. And we're also seeing the
14:07
Speaker 10: effects of competitive Senate races in Iowa and Ohio and
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Speaker 10: North Carolina really impact.
14:15
Speaker 9: These House races as well.
14:16
Speaker 10: Michigan, of course, how well El-Sayed ends up doing in
14:20
Speaker 10: a lot of these districts could impact whether or not
14:22
Speaker 10: Democrats are able to flip a certain number of seats
14:25
Speaker 10: in Michigan as well. And so I do think that
14:28
Speaker 10: the statewide environments matter a lot for the House races.
14:33
Speaker 2: She's one of the most important voices in helping to
14:35
Speaker 2: understand what's happening on the ground in all of these
14:38
Speaker 2: House districts. Erin Covey, House of Representatives editor at the
14:41
Speaker 2: Cook Political Report. Erin, great to have you. We'll assemble
14:45
Speaker 2: our panel next. And we'll also turn a page on
14:48
Speaker 2: the Anthropic S1. The IPO is coming, they say, before Thanksgiving.
14:52
Speaker 2: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
14:55
Speaker 2: more coming up after this.
14:59
Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
15:03
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15:06
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15:09
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15:18
Speaker 5: It's going to be a very big week for the markets. You,
15:20
Speaker 5: of course, have a Fed decision coming on Wednesday. You
15:22
Speaker 5: also get a number of other results from big tech companies.
15:26
Speaker 5: And the market is now digesting the hundreds and hundreds
15:30
Speaker 5: of pages of the S-1 that was filed and made
15:32
Speaker 5: public this morning by Anthropic as it pursues an IPO
15:36
Speaker 5: later this month. There were some big figures in there, Joe,
15:39
Speaker 5: including 1,000 percent, 1,000 percent year-on-year revenue growth last year.
15:43
Speaker 5: But the company did warn that it doesn't expect it's
15:46
Speaker 5: going to be able to sustain that pace of growth,
15:49
Speaker 5: talking about the maturity of the market, the competition, the
15:51
Speaker 5: safety considerations it could face. That is among the many,
15:55
Speaker 5: many risks that this S-1 details. The risk factors start
15:59
Speaker 5: on page 27. They end at page 119. And politics
16:04
Speaker 5: makes an appearance in those risk factors as well.
16:06
Speaker 2: Well, sure, as does the existential threat against humanity as
16:09
Speaker 2: we know it. Yes, the regulatory side could be challenged. But,
16:13
Speaker 2: of course, maybe none of us will be here at
16:15
Speaker 2: a certain point. They really let it all out. And
16:17
Speaker 2: it's maybe redefining the idea of an IPO roadshow. We're
16:22
Speaker 2: lucky to have Ed Ludlow with us to figure this out.
16:25
Speaker 2: Of course, he is the host of Bloomberg Tech News.
16:28
Speaker 2: and covers this company very closely, joining us live from
16:31
Speaker 2: San Francisco. I wonder how many people had to use
16:33
Speaker 2: AI to get through all of this in the early
16:35
Speaker 2: hours of the day, Ed. This came out about a
16:37
Speaker 2: half an hour before the open, and we can look
16:40
Speaker 2: at this as something that's instructive about the finances in
16:43
Speaker 2: this company. Obviously, this is part of the roadshow if
16:45
Speaker 2: people are going to invest in it.
16:47
Speaker 1: And we don't have a big number.
16:49
Speaker 2: We got a ticker symbol, but we're not quite sure,
16:51
Speaker 2: while it may be the biggest ever, exactly how this
16:54
Speaker 2: company will be valued. But the number of risks that
16:57
Speaker 2: are outlined, politically and technologically speaking, is quite unlike anything
17:03
Speaker 2: we've seen before, right?
17:05
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean, the explicit statement that, you know, AI
17:09
Speaker 11: that reaches a certain level of ability being an existential
17:13
Speaker 11: threat to humanity, that is something that's been out there
17:16
Speaker 11: in the news cycle, right? But it was there in
17:18
Speaker 11: black and white. And I think, you know, that came
17:21
Speaker 11: with a disclosure of some case studies where, you know,
17:25
Speaker 11: anthropics own AI models behave in a way that they
17:28
Speaker 11: didn't intend.
17:29
Speaker 1: In a way that is worrying um and.
17:31
Speaker 11: It's them saying you know we we have to be
17:34
Speaker 11: transparent about that you know i think that a lot
17:36
Speaker 11: of the audience will be like okay this is an
17:37
Speaker 11: s1 it's a public filing for an ipo you guys
17:40
Speaker 11: are talking about a threat to humanity they are duty
17:42
Speaker 11: bound by the sec of course to like inform investors
17:45
Speaker 11: of the potential risks of of engaging with them as
17:48
Speaker 11: an investor um the political side of it though i
17:51
Speaker 11: you know they could not have been more explicit about
17:55
Speaker 11: this company's relationship with the political apparatus of this country,
18:01
Speaker 11: let's say.
18:03
Speaker 5: Yeah, it was striking that they specifically talked about the
18:06
Speaker 5: potential that they could be, and I'm quoting directly, disproportionately
18:09
Speaker 5: or selectively targeted by governments. I would imagine the U.S.
18:13
Speaker 5: government is front of mind there, Ed, considering already the
18:15
Speaker 5: battles we have seen this administration wage against Anthropic, the DOD,
18:19
Speaker 5: for example, designating them a supply chain risk, and it
18:22
Speaker 5: doesn't end there.
18:24
Speaker 11: Yeah, I think what's important to understand is this is
18:26
Speaker 11: a document that helps investors understand Anthropix business. And from
18:30
Speaker 11: that standpoint, government agencies using Anthropix AI models and tools
18:34
Speaker 11: is about 1% of revenue at most. So this is
18:38
Speaker 11: like bigger picture and consequential and like the case study
18:42
Speaker 11: you outlined completely right. Of course, what they outline is
18:46
Speaker 11: a backstory, the history of the confrontation with the White
18:49
Speaker 11: House where Anthropic basically says, after we publicly oppose the
18:53
Speaker 11: use of our technology for mass surveillance, You know, the
18:56
Speaker 11: President of the United States directed federal agencies to stop
18:59
Speaker 11: using that technology, and they were designated as supply chain risk.
19:01
Speaker 11: But the step they go one further on, on this
19:04
Speaker 11: kind of risk disclosure, is that their commercial business would
19:07
Speaker 11: be impacted by spillover. You know, direct government use is small,
19:11
Speaker 11: but Anthropic is warning that government action could hurt their
19:16
Speaker 11: relationships with the private sector, which is, you know, something
19:18
Speaker 11: to take into account.
19:21
Speaker 1: Even further.
19:22
Speaker 2: when we consider the idea of supply chain risk, you
19:26
Speaker 2: talk about this disclosure. Anthropic says the Department of War
19:29
Speaker 2: suggested it could invoke the Defense Production Act to force
19:34
Speaker 2: it to remove restrictions on autonomous weapons and mass surveillance.
19:40
Speaker 2: Is this something that could cause investors to think twice
19:43
Speaker 2: about this? Or when you back off and think about
19:46
Speaker 2: all the warnings in this S1, this is still going
19:49
Speaker 2: to be the best attended IPO likely ever.
19:53
Speaker 7: Yeah.
19:54
Speaker 11: The one thing that I think I'll answer your question
19:55
Speaker 11: by saying is that Anthropic has a unique structure. it
19:59
Speaker 11: is still a public benefit corporation and it has a
20:03
Speaker 11: public benefit goal, which is to make AI that is
20:07
Speaker 11: in the service of humanity, right? That they have these
20:11
Speaker 11: kind of both philanthropic and bigger societal goals. And a
20:15
Speaker 11: long-term benefit trust actually separately from the running of the
20:20
Speaker 11: corporate organization appoints the majority of board members. But you
20:24
Speaker 11: still have a founding group that has a lot of control.
20:26
Speaker 11: Like it's very hard to, explain in the many hundreds
20:31
Speaker 11: of pages, these are competing ideals. Anthropic is very committed
20:35
Speaker 11: to safety. And it's saying in its political about our
20:41
Speaker 11: commitment to safety and our view of how this technology
20:44
Speaker 11: is used.
20:44
Speaker 5: I think we have some difficulty, Ed, with your connection there.
20:47
Speaker 5: But Ed Ludlow is our very best, the host of
20:49
Speaker 5: Bloomberg Tech, who has been across this S1 and will
20:52
Speaker 5: continue to be throughout the day here. on Bloomberg TV
20:54
Speaker 5: and radio. But as Ed was just telling us about,
20:56
Speaker 5: there are some major intersections with politics to consider around
21:00
Speaker 5: not just Anthropix public listing, but AI more broadly. And
21:04
Speaker 5: it's on that note, we turn now to our political panel.
21:06
Speaker 5: Rick Davis is with us, a Bloomberg politics contributor, Republican strategist,
21:09
Speaker 5: and Stonecourt Capital partner, alongside Democratic strategist Sheila Nix today,
21:13
Speaker 5: who is CEO of the Mobile Voting Project.
21:16
Speaker 8: Welcome to you both.
21:17
Speaker 5: Rick, as we get closer to the midterms, it's no
21:19
Speaker 5: secret that data centers and AI have been hot topics
21:24
Speaker 5: on the campaign trail. We have seen a lot of
21:25
Speaker 5: hot rhetoric about reining in this technology and the infrastructure
21:29
Speaker 5: that powers it. What in your mind happens after election
21:33
Speaker 5: day when these people have actually been elected and they're
21:35
Speaker 5: sworn in to Congress? Are we going to see the
21:37
Speaker 5: follow through on policy?
21:40
Speaker 12: Yeah, I would say that it is interesting that this
21:42
Speaker 12: comes just a week before the election. So we've had
21:45
Speaker 12: this thorough debate about how negative voters are around data
21:49
Speaker 12: centers and how concerned they are about AI. And here's
21:52
Speaker 12: the intersection of those things coming to the public markets
21:57
Speaker 12: with just crazy big prices. and this debate around the
22:02
Speaker 12: potential existential threat to humanity, which I got to believe,
22:06
Speaker 12: and I haven't seen a poll on this, but that
22:08
Speaker 12: has to impact voters in some fashion. And I do think,
22:12
Speaker 12: depending upon what happens in Congress, if you do have
22:15
Speaker 12: a Democratic House, the incoming speaker has already made it
22:21
Speaker 12: known that they were going to tackle some kind of
22:25
Speaker 12: an effort to create guardrails around this industry. Now, a
22:30
Speaker 12: lot has to happen for that to come into law,
22:32
Speaker 12: including cooperation with the United States Senate, depending upon who's
22:36
Speaker 12: running that show, and then getting Donald Trump by, in
22:39
Speaker 12: which right now you'd have to say impossible, because if
22:42
Speaker 12: there's one politician in America who believes in unfettered growth
22:47
Speaker 12: of AI, it's Donald Trump.
22:50
Speaker 2: Sheila, we've heard from a lot of Republicans that the
22:53
Speaker 2: pushback on data center is AstroTurf. It's coming from China.
22:58
Speaker 2: It's coming from activists. And the day after the election,
23:01
Speaker 2: you're not going to hear about it again. Is there
23:03
Speaker 2: some truth to that?
23:05
Speaker 13: I feel like the data centers is kind of interesting
23:07
Speaker 13: because it's a lot of local people.
23:09
Speaker 8: You're right.
23:09
Speaker 13: It's not so much a state. Sometimes it is, right?
23:12
Speaker 13: But in a lot of places, it's a town. It's
23:15
Speaker 13: a city. It's people who live there that are concerned
23:18
Speaker 13: about electric usage and other things that And the jobs,
23:23
Speaker 13: while there may be some, tend to be around the construction,
23:25
Speaker 13: not long term. I think a lot of the concerns,
23:28
Speaker 13: whether it's data centers or AI overall, really feeds into
23:32
Speaker 13: the economic uncertainty people are feeling right now. And so
23:35
Speaker 13: while they're worried about day-to-day costs and groceries, gas, everything else,
23:41
Speaker 13: the uncertainty around AI with respect to their jobs, with
23:44
Speaker 13: respect to their communities, and with respect to the future
23:47
Speaker 13: of humanity is a manifestation.
23:50
Speaker 1: Of that right now.
23:51
Speaker 5: Well, so let's dig more into the data center's idea,
23:53
Speaker 5: because I was struck by some news that crossed in
23:55
Speaker 5: The New York Times this morning, Rick, that there is
23:57
Speaker 5: now a pro data center pack. It's called Building Our Future.
24:01
Speaker 5: And they're making their first investment in this midterm cycle
24:04
Speaker 5: by throwing one and a half million dollars worth of
24:07
Speaker 5: money at advertising to help Senator Darlene Graham in South Carolina.
24:12
Speaker 5: I would imagine you're not surprised necessarily by the idea
24:14
Speaker 5: of a pro data center pack. But what does it
24:16
Speaker 5: say that they're investing first in South Carolina?
24:21
Speaker 12: Well, it's the kind of thing I think that they
24:24
Speaker 12: don't have that much money. A buck and a half
24:26
Speaker 12: is not table stakes in a campaign cycle like this.
24:31
Speaker 12: And so they got to go where they can have
24:33
Speaker 12: an impact. We know that tens of millions of dollars
24:38
Speaker 12: have started to come into South Carolina. But at the
24:41
Speaker 12: end of the day, nowhere like some of these other
24:43
Speaker 12: more competitive states. So if you want to be friends
24:46
Speaker 12: with the United States senator... who's going to have a
24:48
Speaker 12: lot of cachet if she makes it to the Senate.
24:53
Speaker 12: Darling Graham is probably a good pick for that. So
24:56
Speaker 12: more lobbying strategy than electoral strategy.
24:59
Speaker 1: So is this the AI election?
25:01
Speaker 2: Are we going to look back on this and call
25:04
Speaker 2: it such, or are we just too involved in what's
25:07
Speaker 2: swirling around.
25:07
Speaker 1: Us right now?
25:08
Speaker 13: Yeah, that's a good question, and it's hard to answer that.
25:11
Speaker 13: I think it won't be I think we'll look back
25:13
Speaker 13: and say it did have an impact, but in the
25:15
Speaker 13: day-to-day leading up to the next couple weeks or next week,
25:18
Speaker 13: I think it'll be a number of things back to,
25:21
Speaker 13: you know, what I feel like a broken record here
25:23
Speaker 13: on cost, affordability, gas, and groceries.
25:26
Speaker 5: Well, but it's not even just the issue of AI.
25:29
Speaker 5: It's also the usage of AI in elections. We've seen,
25:32
Speaker 5: you were talking through the numbers a week or two ago, Joe,
25:36
Speaker 5: just the sheer amount of money that has been spent
25:38
Speaker 5: on AI-generated ads, which not all states even have rules around.
25:42
Speaker 5: Can a voter even trust the messaging that they're getting
25:45
Speaker 5: is real and not generated?
25:47
Speaker 7: Yeah.
25:47
Speaker 13: The misinformation, disinformation issue that we had in 2024 is
25:50
Speaker 13: only going to continue to get worse. And I think
25:53
Speaker 13: there will need to be some solutions to how people,
25:55
Speaker 13: and it'll probably be based on individual consumers, can figure
25:59
Speaker 13: out what's AI generated and what's not. And that will
26:02
Speaker 13: be something that we have to deal with.
26:03
Speaker 2: You were Kamala Harris's chief of staff. In that election,
26:07
Speaker 2: we thought the October surprise. Can you imagine a deep
26:09
Speaker 2: fake looking so real they believe Joe Biden or Kamala
26:12
Speaker 2: Harris are saying something crazy? We've come a long way
26:17
Speaker 2: from then. Did you imagine this is where we would
26:19
Speaker 2: be in 26?
26:21
Speaker 13: Probably not in that, but we were quite worried about it.
26:24
Speaker 13: We were worried about the general mis- and disinformation, both
26:28
Speaker 13: from nation states and just other competitors. But it does
26:32
Speaker 13: seem to be problem that we need to deal with
26:34
Speaker 13: going forward. And it's only getting worse.
26:36
Speaker 1: Now you see John Ossoff at a beauty salon. You
26:38
Speaker 1: actually have to check. It looks so real.
26:39
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly.
26:40
Speaker 1: Sheila, it's great to have you as part of our conversation.
26:42
Speaker 1: Please come back. Sheila Neck, CEO, Mobile Voting Project.
26:46
Speaker 2: And of course, Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributor and partner
26:49
Speaker 2: at Stonecourt Capital.
26:50
Speaker 1: Thank you both. Stay with us on Balance of Power.
26:53
Speaker 1: We'll have much more coming up after this.
26:59
Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
27:02
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27:06
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27:09
Speaker 4: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch
27:12
Speaker 4: us live on YouTube.
27:15
Speaker 5: Walking us through the update we are seeing when it
27:17
Speaker 5: comes to U.S. assets today. It's a very different story, though,
27:21
Speaker 5: in Brazil with Brazilian stocks and the currency, the real
27:24
Speaker 5: plummeting today in the aftermath of a surprise outcome. in
27:28
Speaker 5: the runoff presidential election yesterday, where leftist president Luis Inacio
27:31
Speaker 5: Lula da Silva beat Flavio Bolsonaro, of course, the right-wing
27:36
Speaker 5: candidate and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. This
27:40
Speaker 5: was not expected. And as much as we talk about
27:43
Speaker 5: the polls in the midterm elections this cycle and whether
27:46
Speaker 5: or not they could be wrong in terms of how
27:47
Speaker 5: much they favor Democrats, a lot of people, Joe, did
27:50
Speaker 5: not see this outcome coming immediately. in Brazil, financial markets included.
27:54
Speaker 1: That's for sure.
27:55
Speaker 2: The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF down 21% right now.
28:00
Speaker 1: It was down 23% earlier.
28:02
Speaker 2: Kayleigh, when you look at the chart, it's just right
28:05
Speaker 2: back to the future, back to where it was essentially
28:07
Speaker 2: before the runoff, remembering that the index went to the
28:09
Speaker 2: moon following that runoff election. Augusta Sariva is Bloomberg News
28:17
Speaker 2: Brazilian politics reporter and is with us right now live
28:20
Speaker 2: from Sao Paulo. Augusta, it's great to see you. Thank
28:23
Speaker 2: you so much for joining us here. This was a
28:25
Speaker 2: spread of 4.4 million votes. How do you prove fraud?
28:30
Speaker 2: What is Bolsonaro alleging?
28:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's going to be a really hard and long.
28:37
Speaker 8: Road ahead for Bolsonaro, right?
28:39
Speaker 3: Because as you said, it was a 4.5 million vote difference.
28:43
Speaker 3: And what happened was that the whole mess started because
28:46
Speaker 3: the Lula campaign asked for an extension.
28:49
Speaker 8: To voting times. And eventually the Supreme Court conceded it.
28:53
Speaker 3: Lula had argued that some people were not able to
28:56
Speaker 3: vote because of some disruptions to public transit. The court
29:00
Speaker 3: argued that that made sense, so they decided to extend
29:02
Speaker 3: voting times by two hours. And Bolsonaro was arguing that
29:07
Speaker 3: that was unprecedented, and he couldn't accept the result because
29:12
Speaker 3: of that.
29:13
Speaker 8: But there are two things we need to consider.
29:15
Speaker 3: First of all, Bolsonaro's campaign also asked for an extension
29:20
Speaker 3: So they alleged different reasons. They were asking for an extension,
29:23
Speaker 3: alleging that incremental weather didn't let some people vote.
29:27
Speaker 8: So that's the first part of the equation.
29:30
Speaker 3: The second part of the equation, as you said, it
29:32
Speaker 3: was a 4.5 million vote difference. And the Supreme Court
29:36
Speaker 3: said only 30,000 votes were cast accidentally. normal voting hours.
29:41
Speaker 3: So the head of the electoral court has already said
29:46
Speaker 3: he saw no issues with voting. So it will be
29:50
Speaker 3: a really long road ahead for Bolsonaro to prove this.
29:56
Speaker 5: Well, so the assumption is that Lula- will ultimately be
30:00
Speaker 5: proven the victor in this contest and be able to
30:02
Speaker 5: move forward. And while his leftward victory is stunning, given
30:07
Speaker 5: the trajectory we have seen in Latin America recently, Augusta,
30:12
Speaker 5: he's still going to have to deal with a right-wing
30:14
Speaker 5: majority Congress, right? How much does that limit what he's
30:17
Speaker 5: actually going to be able to do as he governs?
30:21
Speaker 5: And are the markets potentially misreading that with the move today?
30:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a very good question because he actually acknowledged
30:29
Speaker 3: this yesterday. He said he wants to talk to Congress.
30:33
Speaker 3: He acknowledged that it's much more conservative than it was before.
30:38
Speaker 3: And not only that, but you have many members of
30:41
Speaker 3: the Bolsonaro family and not only people from his party
30:45
Speaker 3: who were elected to both Senate and House.
30:48
Speaker 8: Lower house.
30:49
Speaker 3: So he will have to deal with not only the opposition,
30:54
Speaker 3: but also with the losers, right? So for him, he
30:58
Speaker 3: already said he wants to have a conversation. Yesterday, he
31:02
Speaker 3: signaled a lot that he's willing to talk, that he's
31:05
Speaker 3: willing to defend the Constitution. So it seems like he
31:08
Speaker 3: wants to make room for a dialogue in this fourth mandate.
31:14
Speaker 5: All right, Augusta Sariva. our Brazilian politics reporter live from
31:18
Speaker 5: Sao Paulo today in the aftermath of these results. Augusta,
31:21
Speaker 5: thank you so much. So again, it was a surprise
31:25
Speaker 5: in Brazil. The question is whether or not it's going
31:27
Speaker 5: to be a surprise eight days from now or maybe
31:29
Speaker 5: nine days from now, 10 days from now. We don't
31:31
Speaker 5: know for sure how long it's going to take to
31:33
Speaker 5: count all the votes, Joe, and decide the midterms, the
31:35
Speaker 5: outcome of the balance of power in Washington and who
31:38
Speaker 5: ultimately is elected to the House and Senate. it may
31:42
Speaker 5: not be as quick as we knew the results in Brazil.
31:45
Speaker 1: That is true.
31:46
Speaker 5: It could be a lot closer than a 4.5 million
31:48
Speaker 5: vote spread.
31:49
Speaker 1: We're bracing for a late night either way.
31:52
Speaker 2: And I'll tell you what, as we get to this
31:54
Speaker 2: one week out moment, we're trying to tap voices of experience,
31:59
Speaker 2: talk to people who have a real understanding of the
32:01
Speaker 2: map and help us understand what we should all be
32:02
Speaker 2: watching a week from now. Curious what they're watching now
32:05
Speaker 2: in many cases. which is why we made a call
32:08
Speaker 2: to Jim Kessler. The executive vice president for policy at
32:11
Speaker 2: Third Way has been steeped, of course, in this election process,
32:15
Speaker 2: as you would expect.
32:15
Speaker 1: But at Third Way, they've been running their own polling.
32:17
Speaker 1: They're doing their own research.
32:19
Speaker 2: And I love getting inside the head of a practitioner
32:22
Speaker 2: to get a sense of how they're looking at the map.
32:24
Speaker 2: And of course, in the case of Jim Kessler, what
32:26
Speaker 2: they're hearing from those who are being polled. It's great
32:29
Speaker 2: to have you back with us on Bloomberg TV and radio.
32:31
Speaker 2: Jim Kessler, voters are clear. The headline on your research, Costs.
32:36
Speaker 1: Are the signal.
32:37
Speaker 2: It's kind of like we're having the same conversation over
32:40
Speaker 2: and over and over, just with a different wrinkle. And
32:42
Speaker 2: this is something that you can't turn in eight days,
32:45
Speaker 2: is it?
32:46
Speaker 14: No, you can't. And we've been doing polling, really, like
32:52
Speaker 14: large samples, 2,000 vote samples. This is our fifth, starting
32:55
Speaker 14: with Trump's second term. And we've just watched the degradation
33:00
Speaker 14: of Republican support. Each time. And what I found striking
33:04
Speaker 14: about this poll, our last one was in April. Everything
33:08
Speaker 14: has moved five or six points towards Democrats and every
33:11
Speaker 14: single issue. Democrats are doing better in that way. Trump
33:15
Speaker 14: is going down in that way. Like it just feels
33:18
Speaker 14: not like a blue wave, but like a blue tidal
33:20
Speaker 14: wave could be developing in my view.
33:22
Speaker 5: Well, so when it comes down to the issue of
33:24
Speaker 5: costs specifically, how much of it is also an issue
33:27
Speaker 5: of expectations on the way in which costs would be
33:30
Speaker 5: addressed when Republicans came to power after the 2024 election?
33:35
Speaker 5: Is it that voters feel disappointed that they haven't seen
33:37
Speaker 5: the improvement that they were expecting?
33:40
Speaker 1: They do.
33:40
Speaker 14: So one of the questions we ask voters is, do
33:43
Speaker 14: you think the Trump presidency is going better or worse
33:46
Speaker 14: than you expected it to be? Well, of course, you
33:48
Speaker 14: expect Democrats to say it's worse. But across the board, Democrats, Republicans,
33:54
Speaker 14: and independents are overwhelmingly saying, like, it's, you know, moving
33:58
Speaker 14: in the direction, like, the Trump presidency is worse than
34:00
Speaker 14: I expected. And one of the things that I think
34:03
Speaker 14: is really notable, both in this poll, is Trump's problems
34:06
Speaker 14: are really self-inflicted wounds. You know, you look at the tariffs,
34:10
Speaker 14: you look at the Iran war, people identify those two
34:15
Speaker 14: presidential actions as the reasons that their costs are going up.
34:20
Speaker 14: So they They don't think it's like, well, the economy's,
34:23
Speaker 14: you know, things are bad in the economy. They think
34:25
Speaker 14: these are Trump actions that did this.
34:28
Speaker 2: You work for Chuck Schumer and you have a real
34:29
Speaker 2: understanding of the Senate here. I don't know if you're
34:32
Speaker 2: actually expecting it to flip or if you're holding out
34:35
Speaker 2: on that as opposed to the House where the conventional
34:38
Speaker 2: wisdom is this will be a Democratic majority. But how
34:41
Speaker 2: are you looking at the map? It seemed pretty simple
34:43
Speaker 2: in terms of swing states at first. Dems had to
34:46
Speaker 2: get Michigan, Ohio, Maine. We could keep going through this.
34:49
Speaker 2: But a number of different paths have emerged through states
34:51
Speaker 2: like Texas, through states like Kansas, where the president will
34:54
Speaker 2: be this evening in Mississippi. What is real to you
34:58
Speaker 2: and what is noise?
35:00
Speaker 14: I mean, you just said the president's in Mississippi.
35:01
Speaker 4: Yes.
35:02
Speaker 12: Okay.
35:03
Speaker 14: I mean, so one of the ways that you look
35:05
Speaker 14: at like how, what's really going on, you can disagree
35:08
Speaker 14: with the polls. You could say they might be, just
35:09
Speaker 14: look at what you're, the opposition is doing and how
35:11
Speaker 14: they're acting and they're acting panicked. This is my 19th
35:15
Speaker 14: election cycle.
35:16
Speaker 6: Yeah.
35:16
Speaker 1: Okay.
35:18
Speaker 14: This reminds me of 1994. That was the Gingrich revolution
35:21
Speaker 14: where like, it was just an absolute red tidal wave
35:25
Speaker 14: there and weird things happened. You know, people lost who
35:29
Speaker 14: didn't expect to lose like Tom Foley, who was the,
35:32
Speaker 14: Speaker of the House at the time. And I think
35:34
Speaker 14: we could see that this time. I do believe the
35:37
Speaker 14: Democrats are going to take the Senate. And I think
35:40
Speaker 14: the Republicans that are in trouble are those that realized
35:45
Speaker 14: far too late that they had a race. It's sort
35:48
Speaker 14: of like when you realize your skin is turning red
35:50
Speaker 14: and it's too late to put on the sunscreen. Like
35:54
Speaker 14: that's what's happened in Kansas. And that's what's happening in
35:57
Speaker 14: Mississippi and also in South Carolina. Now, I'm not saying
35:59
Speaker 14: Democrats are going to win Mississippi and South Carolina. or
36:03
Speaker 14: even in Kansas, but they have a real shot in
36:06
Speaker 14: Kansas and they have a puncher's shot in Mississippi and
36:10
Speaker 14: South Carolina.
36:11
Speaker 1: That's insane.
36:12
Speaker 14: That's insane.
36:14
Speaker 3: Okay.
36:14
Speaker 5: So even if it's a longer shot in Mississippi and
36:17
Speaker 5: South Carolina, where is the path to the majority for
36:20
Speaker 5: you that you think is guaranteed that Democrats are going
36:22
Speaker 5: to pick up those seats?
36:24
Speaker 7: Right.
36:24
Speaker 14: So nothing's guaranteed, but Democrats are at 47 right now.
36:28
Speaker 14: I think they hold all of their holds.
36:30
Speaker 7: Okay.
36:30
Speaker 5: Michigan included.
36:31
Speaker 14: Michigan included. So Democrats have three underperforming candidates running for Senate. Michigan, Maine, Minnesota, okay?
36:40
Speaker 14: They are underperforming candidates, and you can argue that the
36:42
Speaker 14: Republican running is also an overperforming candidates in each of
36:46
Speaker 14: those places. But the generic ballot is eight, nine points
36:49
Speaker 14: in Democrats' favor. So it's like we get a free
36:51
Speaker 14: touchdown and a two-point conversion in every single race. And
36:55
Speaker 14: I just don't think Republicans are going to be able
36:57
Speaker 14: to make up for that in any of those three states.
37:00
Speaker 14: So those are hold states plus Maine, that's 48. North
37:03
Speaker 14: Carolina is 49. I put Alaska is 50. Ohio is 51.
37:08
Speaker 14: That's my first 51. And then Iowa and Texas, coin
37:13
Speaker 14: flips for 52 and 53. And then Kansas would be 50,
37:16
Speaker 14: if that happens, would be 54.
37:18
Speaker 2: I love this back of napkin with Jim Kessler. That's
37:21
Speaker 2: why we wanted you here. Chuck Schumer's Senate majority pack
37:25
Speaker 2: is putting $ 20 million into Jeffrey Epstein-related ads.
37:30
Speaker 1: Alaska, Maine, Iowa.
37:32
Speaker 2: Ohio, Kansas, and Georgia. This is based on ad impact
37:35
Speaker 2: and a spokesperson for that group. The playbook put this
37:39
Speaker 2: together this morning as sort of Epstein, the manifestation of corruption.
37:43
Speaker 2: And we saw a Fox News poll about a week
37:45
Speaker 2: ago show that corruption ranked higher than inflation as issues
37:52
Speaker 2: that voters were most concerned about. You've isolated costs, but
37:56
Speaker 2: what is the corrosive impact of corruption?
37:59
Speaker 1: This is something that you cannot quantify, is it?
38:02
Speaker 14: Right, and I do believe that costs are higher than corruption,
38:05
Speaker 14: no matter what the Fox polls are saying. But corruption
38:08
Speaker 14: really matters. And also, if you go back to 1994,
38:11
Speaker 14: Democrats had a huge corruption problem back then, too. It
38:14
Speaker 14: was like the confluence of two streams. They were unhappy
38:17
Speaker 14: about the economy, and they were unhappy about Democratic corruption
38:21
Speaker 14: in Congress. And that's coming together here.
38:23
Speaker 1: Well, no one's been convicted or anything. What corruption are
38:25
Speaker 1: we talking about?
38:25
Speaker 14: So let's just take Epstein, okay?
38:28
Speaker 7: Okay.
38:29
Speaker 14: This is a place where there was a sizable number
38:33
Speaker 14: of like the MAGA world who really felt like this
38:36
Speaker 14: is a top tier issue for me. And then Trump
38:39
Speaker 14: gets elected and there was promises, Pam Bondi and others,
38:44
Speaker 14: we're going to get to the bottom of this. And
38:46
Speaker 14: then suddenly they get clay feet. And then there's a vote,
38:51
Speaker 14: you know, in the House and in the Senate.
38:53
Speaker 8: And a lot of.
38:54
Speaker 14: Republicans voted to like keep those Epstein files secret. Well,
38:59
Speaker 14: for this segment of voter that can swing, okay, they're
39:04
Speaker 14: a little bit of an odd duck voter, these Epstein voters.
39:09
Speaker 14: This was dispositive. And they may stay home or they
39:15
Speaker 14: might vote for a Democrat. They feel betrayed by the
39:18
Speaker 14: president and lied to.
39:20
Speaker 5: Well, so as you talk about these voters that swing,
39:22
Speaker 5: even if they swing in the direction of Democrats in 2026,
39:26
Speaker 5: How do you see all of this over the course
39:28
Speaker 5: of the next couple of weeks and the next two
39:30
Speaker 5: years shaping the way for 2028? And that's not even
39:33
Speaker 5: just the congressional elections, but the governor's races as well.
39:36
Speaker 5: How important will those outcomes be as we look forward?
39:39
Speaker 14: Yeah, the governor's races are really important, and Democrats are
39:41
Speaker 14: going to have some real gains at the governor's level.
39:44
Speaker 14: So the midterms are not a predictor of the general. 1994,
39:50
Speaker 14: horrible election. Bill Clinton, 1996, wins by nine points. Barack Obama, 2010. Shellac, 2012,
39:58
Speaker 14: gets reelected. Look, there is an ideological divide within the
40:04
Speaker 14: Democratic Party, okay? And that could define a lot what
40:08
Speaker 14: happens if Democrats get majority in the House and the Senate.
40:12
Speaker 14: But really, that battle gets fought in the presidential primary.
40:16
Speaker 14: My advice to both Jeffries and Schumer, if you're listening,
40:19
Speaker 14: is Try and pass things that unite the party. Let
40:23
Speaker 14: the ideological debate happen at the presidential level. Show that
40:27
Speaker 14: you can get things done even if the president vetoes them.
40:31
Speaker 2: You see the 28 poll from Siena? Democrats asked who
40:34
Speaker 2: they think should be running for president. Zoran Mamdani and
40:40
Speaker 2: Barack Obama, both of whom are ineligible to run.
40:43
Speaker 1: That's where we are, 28.
40:45
Speaker 8: We'll leave it there.
40:46
Speaker 5: Jim Kessler, Executive Vice President at Third Way. Great to
40:48
Speaker 5: have you with us in studio. As we look ahead
40:51
Speaker 5: to the midterms in eight days, but 2028 is going
40:53
Speaker 5: to start very quickly after that.
40:54
Speaker 8: We'll have more Balance of Power later on Bloomberg.
41:00
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
41:03
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify,
41:06
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41:09
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime Eastern
41:12
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg.com.