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11 crazy days to the US election · The Front

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Friday, October twenty five. Billionaire Richard White has resigned
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  Speaker 1: from the company that made him one of Australia's richest people.
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  Speaker 1: He's at the center of a sex scandal and although
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  Speaker 1: White is not accused of anything illegal, he's taking a
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  Speaker 1: break and will return as a consultant earning one million
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  Speaker 1: dollars a year.
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  Speaker 2: Why have you resigned today, I'm not talking.
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  Speaker 3: Are you concerned that that more women.
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  Speaker 4: Are going to come out in slight?
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  Speaker 1: You can watch that exclusive video by our reporter Leam
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  Speaker 1: Mendez right now at the Australian dot com dot U.
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  Speaker 1: Can you believe it? The US election is just eleven
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  Speaker 1: days away. Kamala Harris has a man problem. Donald Trump
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  Speaker 1: has a trust problem. Today we meet the correspondents who'll
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  Speaker 1: be crisscrossing the States to you the best reporting and
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  Speaker 1: analysis of this crazy campaign.
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  Speaker 4: You may need to open the aft an the event
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  Speaker 4: of an emergencygure.
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  Speaker 1: This is American Airlines Flight five two seventy nine from Washington,
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  Speaker 1: DC to Atlanta, Georgia, and on board is our reporter
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  Speaker 1: Joe Kelly oh.
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  Speaker 4: Best go ahead and stodos either in the overhead compartment
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  Speaker 4: or completely underneath sing in front of him. Same for laptops.
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  Speaker 4: Thank you.
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  Speaker 1: Joe's recently moved to the States and he's getting his
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  Speaker 1: head around this vast, messy, brilliant, terrifying democracy. So it
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  Speaker 1: was nice for Joe to hear a familiar accent from
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  Speaker 1: the cockpit.
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  Speaker 5: Weather in the Atlanta area right now, it's a light
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  Speaker 5: winds out of the west.
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  Speaker 6: It's a good visibility.
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  Speaker 4: Cliss Guy's temperature of eighty degrees is please sit back, relax, Joe.
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  Speaker 6: The flight local book.
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  Speaker 1: Georgia is a crucial swing state. Donald Trump won it
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  Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen and Joe Biden took it off him
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  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, but only just. Joe's flown to Atlanta
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  Speaker 1: for a Kamala Harris rally as she attempts to bring
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  Speaker 1: it all back to Trump's character. Do you think Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump is a fascist?
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  Speaker 2: Yes?
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  Speaker 6: I do, Yes, I do. He himself has said he
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  Speaker 6: would terminate the Constitution of the United States and wants
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  Speaker 6: to earn your vote. To stand again behind the seal
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  Speaker 6: of the President of the United States.
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  Speaker 1: On stage with Harris in Atlanta will be Barack Obama, you.
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  Speaker 6: Are you running a go?
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  Speaker 1: A couple of days ago, Obama joined eminem on stage
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  Speaker 1: in Detroit and wrapped his two thousand and two hit
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  Speaker 1: Lose Yourself.
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  Speaker 3: Now, I notice my palms are sweating. Lose Leek, I's
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  Speaker 3: a heaven, Bama on my sweater, Runner on Spagunna.
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  Speaker 6: I'm nervous, but I'm a surface. I'm a comb and
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  Speaker 6: run it.
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  Speaker 1: The risk of rolling out a political superstar is that
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  Speaker 1: they upstage the candidate.
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  Speaker 4: That's problem. I've watched Barack Obama's rally a couple of
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  Speaker 4: days ago, and the guy's electric. He's completely comfortable, he's
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  Speaker 4: full of charisma and energy, and he's so persuasive. Barack
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  Speaker 4: Obama and Bill Clinton are the great persuaders of politics,
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  Speaker 4: and he looks so natural making all these arguments about
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  Speaker 4: Donald Trump. What's Donald Trump's plan for healthcare? Well, he
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  Speaker 4: has for concept of a plan.
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  Speaker 3: Now I want you all to think about this. Let's
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  Speaker 3: say your boss gives you an assignment, says, look, I
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  Speaker 3: need it by Friday. So Friday rolls around. Your boss
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  Speaker 3: says did you finish that project? And you said, well,
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  Speaker 3: actually I haven't started, but I do have a concept
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  Speaker 3: of a plan.
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  Speaker 4: Obviously, Kammler is trying to use him to the best
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  Speaker 4: of her ability to help her get over the line
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  Speaker 4: and deploy him as a political weapon. But I think
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  Speaker 4: the I think the reality is is that he is
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  Speaker 4: so much more effective in making these arguments than she is.
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  Speaker 4: But this is what she needs. She needs to be
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  Speaker 4: rolling out people like Barrick Obaman out. It really nail
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  Speaker 4: her message in. With less than two weeks now away
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  Speaker 4: from November five.
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  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris is directly appealing to American women on the
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  Speaker 1: hot issue of abortion rights, but that leaves the Democrats
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  Speaker 1: exposed with the other half of the population. There's a
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  Speaker 1: significant differential in Harris's popularity with men.
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  Speaker 4: I think there's been a problem for the Democrats over
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  Speaker 4: a long period of time which Trump has exploited. And
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  Speaker 4: I think this plays particularly towards young men who basically
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  Speaker 4: have this combative view towards the left now and in
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  Speaker 4: Donald Trump they see a figure and I conoclastic, irrev
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  Speaker 4: and political figure who's willing to give the middle finger
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  Speaker 4: to the left and the sense of political correctness and
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  Speaker 4: these trends of diversity, equity, inclusion, and some of these
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  Speaker 4: narratives about toxic masculinity and so on. So I think
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  Speaker 4: if you look at it from that perspective, this is
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  Speaker 4: one possible explanation for why Trump has been able to
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  Speaker 4: say outrageous things from the absurd to the extreme, that
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  Speaker 4: any other politician would never be able to say and
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  Speaker 4: get away with, and yet not faced a penalty electorally.
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  Speaker 5: They're eating the dogs, the people that came in, they're
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  Speaker 5: eating the cats, they're eating.
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  Speaker 4: In fact, he seems to have been rewarded and edging closer.
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  Speaker 4: So I don't think that's something that you can really
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  Speaker 4: arrest in the final two weeks of an election campaign. However,
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  Speaker 4: I mean, if she loses, I think there will be
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  Speaker 4: some need to address this issue about appealing to young men.
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  Speaker 4: You can't just rely on young women to make up
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  Speaker 4: for young men abandoning you. So I think if they
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  Speaker 4: actually did something there that would make them more formidable.
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  Speaker 4: But to look that's said, it's pretty late in the
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  Speaker 4: dapt for them to be able to rectify that.
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  Speaker 1: I'd say, in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Donald Trump was working
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  Speaker 1: a different angle, frying chips and flipping burgers at McDonald's.
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  Speaker 5: This is not a normal situation, isn't it. I don't know.
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  Speaker 5: When you want a good looking family, how did you
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  Speaker 5: produce those good looking kids? Of course, the whole thing
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  Speaker 5: was staged. The McDonald's was closed. They weren't real customers.
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  Speaker 1: Adam Crichton has been the Australians correspondent in Washington, DC
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  Speaker 1: for the past few years.
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  Speaker 5: But it completely dominated the news cycle. And despite the
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  Speaker 5: fact that now he's definitely a politician, he's no longer
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  Speaker 5: a businessman, but he's still the master showman and he's
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  Speaker 5: just got his mind on how things are going to
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  Speaker 5: play in the media all the time. And I think
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  Speaker 5: that stunt, and it was a stunt, really worked very
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  Speaker 5: well for him.
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  Speaker 1: He's got amazing stage presence. He is one of those
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  Speaker 1: people with the X factor, isn't he. How seriously do
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  Speaker 1: you think Americans are taking into account the things that
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  Speaker 1: they learned about him since the twenty sixteen election, For example,
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  Speaker 1: the events of January sixth, when a mob of his
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  Speaker 1: supporters stormed the Capitol, his reluctance to concede power. Have
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  Speaker 1: those things made a difference?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, look, I think they have and he must really
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  Speaker 5: regret his behavior on January the sixth.
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  Speaker 1: We fight like hell, and if you don't fight like hell,
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  Speaker 1: you're not.
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  Speaker 3: Going to have a country anymore.
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  Speaker 5: Because I think if he hadn't behaved that way, and
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  Speaker 5: of course he would dispute obviously that he did anything wrong,
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  Speaker 5: but I'm sure in private he'd be like, oh, if
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  Speaker 5: I just had have said a few more things, it
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  Speaker 5: wouldn't be so bad for me. And I think he'd
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  Speaker 5: be a shoeing to win, because the reality is the
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  Speaker 5: Biden administration's very unpopular, and Harris is walking on eggshells
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  Speaker 5: trying to distance herself from it while she still is
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  Speaker 5: the vice president and she still has loyalty to Joe Biden.
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  Speaker 5: So it's a hard task. Now you have the huge
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  Speaker 5: influx of immigrants, which has been very unpopular in the
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  Speaker 5: southern border, and then of course you had a couple
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  Speaker 5: of years of nine percent inflation thereabouts, which hasn't happened
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  Speaker 5: in your decades. So those two things would ordinarily see
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  Speaker 5: the end of any government. But as you suggest, there
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  Speaker 5: is all this baggage that Trump has, and it is
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  Speaker 5: very huge, and it's certainly ways on his candidacy.
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  Speaker 1: It has to Trump's seventy eight now, and he says
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  Speaker 1: if he loses, he won't try again in twenty twenty eight.
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  Speaker 5: He pretty emphatically ruled that out a few weeks ago.
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  Speaker 5: It wasn't widely reported in the mainstream media, but no,
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  Speaker 5: he was pretty emphatic. He said, no, absolutely not.
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  Speaker 2: I will not run again.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up, can Trump actually win this? While I've got you,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: there's a new episode of our podcast Bromwin coming this weekend.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: It's the cold case investigation by one of the world's
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: most famous investigative journalists, our very own Headley Thomas. You
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: can check out the latter episode and hear all of
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Bromwin first and read all our exclusive stories by joining
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: us subscribers at the Australian dot com dot au. Cameron
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Stewart will bought a plane to America in the coming days,
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  Speaker 1: where he'll join Joe Kelly and Adam Crichton on the ground.
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  Speaker 1: His intern will be holding the fort here in Australia
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: while he's gone. I like your fairy friend.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: This is Corgy, a cat called Corgy.
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  Speaker 1: As the Australian's chief international correspondent, Cam's covered his fair
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  Speaker 1: share of US elections. He was there in twenty sixteen
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  Speaker 1: and again in twenty twenty. Cam was at Capitol Hill
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  Speaker 1: on January sixth when a mob of Trump supporters stormed Congress.
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  Speaker 2: No presidential election has been this closed for so long,
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  Speaker 2: for sixty years. And what I think is remarkable about that, Claire,
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  Speaker 2: is We've never really had such leading drama. We've had
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  Speaker 2: a sitting president at the eleventh hour abandoned his candidacy.
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  Speaker 2: We've had two assassination attempts, complete with a bloodied the
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  Speaker 2: year and a defiant vist pump.
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  Speaker 3: Ready shoot us down.
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  Speaker 2: And we've had the sudden rise of a black woman
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  Speaker 2: taking on a newly convicted felon. After all of that,
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  Speaker 2: you would have thought somehow or either one of the
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  Speaker 2: candidates would surge ahead. But here we are almost deadlocked
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  Speaker 2: less than two weeks before the election.
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  Speaker 1: Over the years, you've spoken to thousands of Americans. Cam
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  Speaker 1: what's your sense now of where where America is at?
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  Speaker 1: Are they willing to give Donald Trump another chance?
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  Speaker 2: I think they are potentially willing, Claire. It's interesting because
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  Speaker 2: the electric is changing. It's changed from the previous campaigns
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  Speaker 2: I've covered, and a lot of it has gone in
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  Speaker 2: Trump's favor to an extent. For example, Trump is now
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  Speaker 2: winning black and Hispanic votes that he never won before,
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  Speaker 2: and that doesn't get these and the Hispanic voters are
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  Speaker 2: still overwhelming with Democrat, but he's peeling off one tenth
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  Speaker 2: of them or fifth of them's according to some polls.
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  Speaker 2: And you know that could be a really important fact
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  Speaker 2: that in a close race like this we're seeing Trump
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  Speaker 2: his red red meat megabase is very loyal. They will
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  Speaker 2: never move. The key for Trump is can he win
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  Speaker 2: back the middle ground which he lost last time. Now
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  Speaker 2: in areas like the Hispanic vote, the Black volt and
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  Speaker 2: also just the mail vote. He's got very high support
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  Speaker 2: amongst men, that fifteen percent advantage compared to Krmala Harris.
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  Speaker 2: So there are who is a solid constituency for Trump
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  Speaker 2: and it could be enough to get him over the line.
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  Speaker 2: But on the other side, we have a gender to
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  Speaker 2: bide here where Carla Harris enjoys a massive amount of
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  Speaker 2: support from women. They are of about fifteen percent as well.
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  Speaker 2: And also we have younger voters. The difference I think
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  Speaker 2: between this and the twenty twenty election I Coavi Claire,
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  Speaker 2: is that a lot of younger voters are getting very
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  Speaker 2: energized and enjoining this. They're registering for voting now, et
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  Speaker 2: cetera on the Democrat side, mainly because they see Harris
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  Speaker 2: as a generational change a candidate where they didn't get
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  Speaker 2: that with Biden in twenty twenty. And I think that's
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  Speaker 2: something that the Democrats are really hoping will be a
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  Speaker 2: key factor here, get out the vote amongst young Democrat voters.
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  Speaker 1: Poles have been getting US voting sentiment wrong now for
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: nearly a decade. So can we trust the polls this
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  Speaker 1: time around?
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  Speaker 2: There's a critical question because in twenty sixteen, of course,
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  Speaker 2: the poles famously underestimated Trump. He came and defeated tell
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  Speaker 2: to read Clinton when he was up to three points
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  Speaker 2: behind on the day. So the poles were very wrong.
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  Speaker 2: And then all the posters said, hey, that's okay, we've
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: fixed it. We've worked it out. This is the signment
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  Speaker 2: Trump voter. We're going to adjust our polls accordingly. In
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  Speaker 2: twenty twenty, they are also disastrous. They underestimated the Trump
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  Speaker 2: vote by about three point five percentage points on average,
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  Speaker 2: So that meant that while Biden did win the twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty lesion, he went up by far less than the
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  Speaker 2: poles were suggesting. Now the posters like the boy who
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  Speaker 2: Crow Will are saying yes, we've fixed it again. Believe
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  Speaker 2: us this time around. But now if they have, fine,
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  Speaker 2: But if they haven't, then Trump will win because the
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  Speaker 2: Poles are simply too close.
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  Speaker 5: So if the.
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  Speaker 2: Poles again underestimate Trump, he will win. And that's a
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  Speaker 2: real wildcard and that's certainly what a lot of Trump
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: voters are quite hoping for.
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  Speaker 1: Of course, you can read and watch all the reporting
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: and analysis from Cameron, Joe and Adam for the coming
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: eleven days and life coverage of the results as they
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: come in at The Australian dot com. Do you a
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: day's subscription costs less than a small fry at McDonald's
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: and that's not a stunt. Thanks for joining us on
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: the front this week. Our team is Kristin Amyot, Leah Sammaglue,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Jasper League, Josh Burton, Tiffany Demac and me Claire Harvey.