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Must-See College Football Bets for Week 11! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

• 0:01
  What's up guys it is week 11. The first set of rankings have
• 0:07
  come out so now it's about to get serious.
• 0:10
  I am Darren this is a targeting winters a college football
• 0:13
  betting podcast. I am joined by Tim looking like
• 0:16
  a little outdoor set up there. How we doing today?
• 0:19
  Yes. Doing great, enjoying the
• 0:22
  sunshine, sort of. It's a little cloudy, but I
• 0:26
  think next week if I'm stuck down here again, obviously not
• 0:29
  home, there's a little memorial down the road, some kind of
• 0:33
  picnic area with a used Black Hawk helicopter.
• 0:38
  I might just jump in a helicopter and, you know, have
• 0:42
  some fun with that. I mean, everyone needs a hobby.
• 0:44
  I mean, if you know, stealing military helicopters is one of
• 0:48
  them, go for it bro. But you know, as long as you
• 0:52
  have reception from jail, yeah, if you got jail reception where
• 0:55
  you can at least still come out and give your picks.
• 0:57
  I think you have Wi-Fi there. I saw that Cocaine quarterback,
• 1:00
  he was, he had Wi-Fi in jail. So we're good.
• 1:02
  There you go. Oh, good.
• 1:04
  All right, well, let's get right into it.
• 1:05
  As we mentioned at the top, the rankings came out, I believe it
• 1:09
  was Tuesday night. And if you're watching us on
• 1:13
  YouTube, you see the current bracket as it sits after the
• 1:17
  committee's first rankings are done.
• 1:20
  I took a look at this. I don't really get too into the
• 1:25
  first set of rankings because there's a good chance that a lot
• 1:29
  of this will not look the same four or five weeks from now.
• 1:34
  Did you have any thoughts? Did you agree with it?
• 1:37
  Was there anybody you thought was ranked too high that should
• 1:39
  have been in what? What are your first thoughts on
• 1:42
  these rankings? You know, well, rankings in
• 1:45
  general, as you know, I hate but this whole voting thing, but I,
• 1:51
  I mean, is Memphis really, I mean, I know they're the top
• 1:54
  group of five team, but if we're going to limit it to 12 teams
• 1:57
  and every year they they try to nerf it for an SEC team and when
• 2:01
  it seems like keep changing the rules here, but you know, they
• 2:05
  should probably give that spot to somebody else.
• 2:07
  I mean, I've, I mean, I know Memphis looks really good this
• 2:09
  year, but do they do you really think they can beat, you know,
• 2:13
  Ole Miss or UVA or anybody like that?
• 2:15
  I don't think they can, but. No, I agree.
• 2:18
  We saw it last year when Boise came in and SN well, SNU is not
• 2:23
  a group of five, but we we saw they there was not a lot of
• 2:26
  success from the lesser conferences or the board, Boise
• 2:29
  State for that matter. But this is what we got.
• 2:33
  You're not going to run a group of five playoff brackets.
• 2:36
  So I guess everybody gets a chance.
• 2:39
  Who knows, this could be 16 or 14 next year.
• 2:41
  Who the hell knows what they're going to do.
• 2:42
  But personally, I mean, I just take a look at, you know, me,
• 2:45
  I'm a Notre Dame guy. I think they're ranked a little
• 2:48
  too high. I don't think they should be at
• 2:52
  10. I know some people are saying,
• 2:54
  well, their metrics say that, that they're right where they
• 2:56
  should be. But you know, after they went
• 2:59
  oh, and two, everybody's like they went out and they're in.
• 3:02
  And as we sit here 7-8 weeks later, that's that's the same.
• 3:05
  If they go 10 and two, they're going to get in.
• 3:08
  So, but the one thing I do like about the first set of rankings
• 3:12
  is I kind of look at the teams who are just on the outside,
• 3:16
  like they like teams like 13 to 18.
• 3:19
  And I kind of look to play on them because I think they know
• 3:22
  what's ahead of them. They know they have to win their
• 3:24
  next three or four games depending on how many they have.
• 3:27
  And I think for those teams, you're going to get the best
• 3:29
  effort for the rest of the season.
• 3:31
  So actually one of my picks falls in that line of thinking.
• 3:35
  But yeah, nothing else I really disagree with.
• 3:40
  I last year, sorry about last year with the first round of the
• 3:44
  the playoffs here. I I wish I pulled the trigger on
• 3:46
  it. I was going to just bet all four
• 3:48
  home teams to cover because they all did.
• 3:52
  I'm looking at doing the same thing again this year.
• 3:54
  The only you know, according to the the only pause I have here
• 3:59
  is according to this, Oregon would be a road team playing at
• 4:03
  Texas Tech. But other than that, I mean, if
• 4:05
  it holds like this, I'm I'm seeing, you know, just bet
• 4:10
  Georgia, you know, was that Ole Miss bet Notre?
• 4:15
  Dame not betting BYU, man, that's good.
• 4:18
  That's one home team you're not taking, you're taking the.
• 4:21
  Oh, yeah, the the other home team, I'll get Notre Dame.
• 4:23
  I I see the bottom. I always assume bottom is the
• 4:25
  home team. Yeah, that's great.
• 4:27
  Yeah, it's reversed in this one. So they got a, they got the home
• 4:30
  teams on the top, on the bottom and the top.
• 4:33
  Yeah. Oh, it's just weird.
• 4:35
  Yeah, it'll all look different next week, so, but well, maybe
• 4:38
  not all of it, but I don't see Ohio State and Indiana losing
• 4:41
  their spots anytime soon. But I don't know.
• 4:44
  But anyway, they're out now. Everybody's going to pay
• 4:46
  attention and bitch and moan for the next four or five weeks.
• 4:48
  We'll hear coaches complaining and plug in for their team to be
• 4:51
  I. Don't want to hear it, I really.
• 4:53
  Don't. Yeah, but you're going to
• 4:54
  because. That's.
• 4:55
  What these coaches are supposed to do?
• 4:57
  When they went to four, I mean, hey, in my eye I'm a Homer, but
• 5:02
  he's the greatest coach of all time, Bobby Bowdon said.
• 5:04
  Once you have one and two, who cares about three and four?
• 5:06
  Who cares about 13 through whatever what you got top 12,
• 5:09
  you can't finish in top 12. Shut the hell up.
• 5:11
  I don't want to hear. It you know, you know it's all
• 5:13
  about the mighty dollar and the. More Yeah.
• 5:15
  Like none of this has anything to do with getting making the
• 5:18
  game better or they don't care who really wins.
• 5:21
  They don't care about finding a championship.
• 5:22
  They all just want to make more money.
• 5:23
  And it's a bunch of people that don't care about football at all
• 5:26
  making these decisions. I kind of like the first round.
• 5:29
  I I like that four campuses get to at least host a home game
• 5:33
  that, you know, that means something when the season's
• 5:34
  over. I'm not against that.
• 5:36
  And you know, hey, we're a betting show.
• 5:37
  More games we have to bet at, the happier we are so.
• 5:41
  That's true. Don't hate it.
• 5:43
  Don't know if I want to see it go to 14 or 16, but we don't
• 5:46
  need to be playing college football into March.
• 5:48
  But. Yeah, but if it holds true the
• 5:51
  way it did last year, I think 8's the perfect number.
• 5:54
  I mean, I think so too. Last year, 9 through 12 had no
• 5:57
  business being in the playoffs and they showed it.
• 5:59
  They got worked. So.
• 6:00
  Yeah, we'll see. All right.
• 6:03
  Well, Speaking of getting worked, we've been doing some
• 6:05
  work on winning some games here. So if you're new to the channel,
• 6:09
  thanks for checking us out. If you've been watching or
• 6:12
  listening since the beginning, thank you guys as well.
• 6:14
  We appreciate your loyalty. Last Tuesday, you and I are
• 6:19
  falling in love with these YouTube shorts now that we're
• 6:22
  competent enough to actually throw them out there.
• 6:25
  And from last Tuesday to yesterday, which Tuesday,
• 6:29
  Wednesday, Friday, Sunday when I do it.
• 6:31
  Yeah, 9 days. Yeah.
• 6:32
  So I I did some math. I know you're shocked.
• 6:35
  I did math. Not math.
• 6:37
  Not math at math. That's.
• 6:39
  Me, I'm down in Florida. I do the math here.
• 6:41
  That's fine. But if you've been rolling with
• 6:43
  our picks, dude, I don't know if you know this or not.
• 6:45
  We are 12 and four since last Tuesday, spearheaded by Pete's
• 6:50
  five and O. But yeah, exactly because he did
• 6:56
  GO-5 and O5 consecutive unders. So you know, he's, he's in a
• 7:00
  meeting, he had an emergency meeting pop up, probably because
• 7:03
  he's spending all his money from hitting all his unders and he's
• 7:05
  off to. It.
• 7:09
  And four midweek action worked well.
• 7:15
  We started off. What did we have?
• 7:17
  I gave out Akron -10 1/2. I think it went up to like 12
• 7:20
  1/2 by kick off. They won by like 30 something.
• 7:22
  So that was that was fun. Yesterday you had two bets on
• 7:26
  the Toledo N Illinois match up. You hit Toledo -14 1/2 and be
• 7:30
  over 41 1/2. We don't care of the overall
• 7:32
  about themselves. And then in typical Mac fashion,
• 7:38
  there was a Ball State, Kent State, and I don't really want
• 7:40
  to get into that because I just stopped vomiting about like 3:00
• 7:45
  this morning. You saw it.
• 7:47
  God, I'm sorry the three hours of your life went to that.
• 7:51
  I was watching YouTube, had a stream, because I do have
• 7:54
  YouTube Tvi can watch it, but somebody was streaming it on
• 7:57
  YouTube for me. Just awful.
• 8:04
  I don't know if you watched it on YouTube it's basically like
• 8:08
  neither team was wanted to get like trying to find other school
• 8:12
  win. Just awful bad time management
• 8:17
  from the Kent State coach who just got the interim tag
• 8:19
  removed. He literally wasted like a good
• 8:21
  40 seconds when they were trying to get the the game-winning
• 8:25
  touchdown. Just awful.
• 8:26
  Just I all right, screw it. I'm about to get sick again.
• 8:30
  All right, so let's go on. I mean, yeah, I was gonna say do
• 8:34
  you have anything for for your games or what you watch from
• 8:37
  Matt? Well.
• 8:37
  Thanks to bad eyesight, my 2 bets were at an accidental
• 8:41
  parlay, so I'm up. Technically I'm up 2.3 units I
• 8:46
  think because I instead of doing 2 individual bets it went down
• 8:50
  as one parlay. So you.
• 8:52
  Gotta watch that, man. Those apps are sneaky.
• 8:54
  Yeah. I mean, we're old and blind.
• 8:56
  So I told you yesterday I'm like, yeah.
• 8:57
  I mean, you know, we still got to count that as singles for the
• 9:00
  show 'cause that's what you gave out, but your bankroll is a
• 9:02
  little bit healthier and that's always a good one.
• 9:05
  But all right, so again, yeah, let's get into this because now
• 9:09
  I'm in a bad mood from talking about.
• 9:10
  And I, I cashed Ball State, by the way, and I'm still angry.
• 9:14
  So we talked about not being able to watch college football
• 9:17
  on YouTube TV. Our butt cheeks of the wards.
• 9:19
  Those butt cheeks should be like, yeah, they should be
• 9:22
  rusted and covered with fecal matter.
• 9:24
  Because let me tell you something, Disney, ESPN, Google,
• 9:27
  YouTube TV, you all suck, All right, Get it done.
• 9:31
  Your trillion dollar corporations.
• 9:33
  You're hurting us. All right?
• 9:34
  We just want to watch football, ESPN, We know what you're doing.
• 9:37
  You want to get everybody to cancel YouTube TV and go to your
• 9:40
  app. By the way, your app sucks too,
• 9:42
  because nobody can watch anything on it.
• 9:44
  So yeah, we're done. Shout out to Pat Mac if you
• 9:47
  basically told his bosses. Stop shilling and having all
• 9:50
  your personalities tell you to go to this website.
• 9:51
  I I think this is more Disney and ESPN than it is Google and
• 9:56
  YouTube TV, but there's certainly plenty of blame to go
• 10:00
  around. But on one.
• 10:02
  Side you got, you know, Google and YouTube, the you know, the
• 10:06
  Champions of censorship and all that.
• 10:08
  You know guy, you've said the wrong thing on YouTube but
• 10:10
  whatever. And on the other side you got
• 10:12
  Disney who killed Star Wars. So I hate all these people
• 10:15
  involved. I mean.
• 10:19
  So I mean the butt cheeks is perfect for them.
• 10:21
  They are a boiled inner cheek of society.
• 10:25
  It is like. Literally a quadrant of inflamed
• 10:28
  hemorrhoidal tissue. I can't stand all four of these
• 10:30
  people. It's like, really, how many
• 10:32
  billions more do you need? And the problem is, because
• 10:34
  YouTube TV apparently is not caving in, they're just like,
• 10:37
  no, we're not going to do that. Yeah, we have Google.
• 10:40
  We can outlast this financially longer than you can.
• 10:43
  But yeah, I mean, we're going on two weeks now.
• 10:46
  Come on. Just, you know.
• 10:47
  What we need, you know, that's how bad they are.
• 10:50
  They're going to make me root for Mr. Amazon.
• 10:52
  How he can buy college football, put it all on Amazon.
• 10:55
  There we go. Boom, 13 bucks a month no doubt.
• 11:00
  All right, well, let's get into your food.
• 11:02
  Delivery. Let's go now we have.
• 11:04
  Lots of our negativity out of the way.
• 11:05
  So we've got another five game slate between Thursday and
• 11:08
  Friday. We've actually got 3 bets on
• 11:11
  those five games. So let's take a quick peek at
• 11:13
  the 2:00. We we don't have any locked in
• 11:16
  action on but we may have some thoughts.
• 11:19
  Starting off Thursday we've got Georgia Southern travelling to
• 11:22
  App State, Boone, NC. Lovely place to watch a game.
• 11:25
  From what I'm told App State is laying 5 1/2 with a total of 61
• 11:29
  1/2. I didn't really have anything
• 11:32
  other than I I believe Georgia Southern was a a midweek game
• 11:35
  couple weeks ago and and our man Drew asked our thoughts.
• 11:40
  I was like slightly into the over whoever they were playing.
• 11:42
  Both defenses were ass and it was like 21 to 14 at the end of
• 11:44
  the first quarter. I I had nothing here spread went
• 11:49
  down from 6 1/2 to 5 1/2. So there is some Georgia
• 11:51
  Southern money, but I I don't think I bet on or against app
• 11:54
  state all year. What was?
• 11:55
  The over under on that 160. 1 1/2.
• 12:01
  Yeah, they are ass. I don't know if they're that
• 12:03
  much ass. Well.
• 12:04
  They can score and apparently they can not prevent anybody
• 12:07
  else from scoring so. Yeah, I think we can write down
• 12:12
  the why. I would probably lay the points
• 12:15
  then if it's going to be that high scoring.
• 12:18
  Yeah, yeah, I'd lay the five and a half, you know. 2 bad teams,
• 12:23
  man. I'm coming off back-to-back days
• 12:24
  of Akron, UMass and Kent State. Ball State, I can't do it again.
• 12:28
  So a pass for me here. And the one Friday game we have
• 12:32
  nothing on. Northwestern travelling out to
• 12:35
  USC in that great Big 10 library.
• 12:38
  Yeah. Northwestern getting Yeah,
• 12:41
  right. Northwestern getting 14 1/2 with
• 12:45
  a total of 50 1/2. Thoughts on that?
• 12:51
  That's still USC so I'd bet the over but God Northwestern.
• 12:57
  I mean, I don't care, I know they're playing better, but two
• 13:03
  time zones USC take. Them, yeah, that's slightly into
• 13:07
  USC myself, but yeah, you're right, Northwestern is.
• 13:10
  Playing actually. A winning record for them at
• 13:12
  that point. Well, you got the hook there as
• 13:13
  well. I mean, if you're a numbers
• 13:15
  player, you know, the hook looks enticing.
• 13:17
  But I'm with you. If if anything for this Friday
• 13:21
  night, I'm leaning Usci won't touch it because it starts late
• 13:24
  and I got to get up at like 4:00 Saturday morning for work.
• 13:26
  But yeah, slightly in USC here as well.
• 13:30
  All right, well, let's get into the games that we do have some
• 13:34
  bets on Pete's. Pete does have one for Thursday,
• 13:37
  but he like I said, he's in a meeting.
• 13:38
  So we'll we'll recap that at the end by Friday.
• 13:42
  You got something on two of the the other two games that are
• 13:45
  taking place. So what you got?
• 13:49
  All right, well, the line is Houston -2 1/2.
• 13:52
  It actually went down to Houston getting a point or getting a
• 13:56
  half a point. When I be honest, I just bet the
• 13:58
  money line here on Houston, they're pretty efficient.
• 14:02
  They've been on the road. Their third down conversions are
• 14:06
  are pretty solid, a little over 40%.
• 14:10
  What I like is, you know, you, you, you know, what tells us is
• 14:17
  they don't need to blow out UCF. They just need to, you know,
• 14:21
  pretty much not screw up in the fourth quarter.
• 14:24
  So I like them just straight up to win the game.
• 14:28
  I'm also betting the over here we, we saw a lot of big plays
• 14:32
  when we saw West Virginia play them a few weeks ago.
• 14:36
  So I think there's going to be some big plays, some quick
• 14:39
  scores. I so I'm the over order went
• 14:44
  down to 47 1/2. For some reason.
• 14:45
  It was, I think it opened at 48, so it went down.
• 14:49
  So I'll take the extra point there, a half point.
• 14:52
  So I like I have two bets on this game.
• 14:54
  Actually, I'd like Houston to win the game outright, and I
• 14:57
  also like the over of 47 1/2. Yeah, I like the Houston side of
• 15:03
  this. It seems like a great buy.
• 15:05
  Low opportunity after that, whatever the hell that was
• 15:08
  against West Virginia last week, you.
• 15:11
  Know decency. Bias, man, everybody's like,
• 15:14
  wow, this team just lost to West Virginia.
• 15:16
  They're terrible, especially after we saw West Virginia two
• 15:18
  weeks ago and they got puddled by UCF.
• 15:21
  But yeah, there's this. I I would agree with this, at
• 15:25
  least from a side point. I don't have any thoughts on the
• 15:27
  total, but yeah, perfect by low spot on Houston right here.
• 15:31
  Wasn't super impressed with what we saw at UCF, but then again it
• 15:36
  was West Virginia so but yeah, definitely like the like the
• 15:40
  side play here. Yeah, there's going to be a lot
• 15:43
  of points. I mean, there's I think I of
• 15:46
  course, you know, 10 seven final now that I just, you know, 85
• 15:52
  bears against 2000 Ravens. So here we go.
• 15:56
  That's the way it's going to do. But yeah, I saw that because I
• 15:59
  originally when I looked at it, I thought it was low and so I
• 16:03
  just went with it and it went a little bit lower for me.
• 16:05
  So why not just jump on it? Bet the over?
• 16:11
  Well P had his other game. Who will will go over?
• 16:13
  His, yeah, we'll get him. We'll get his at the end.
• 16:17
  All right, so we'll do. I could.
• 16:19
  Yeah, both mine are tomorrow. So chronologically, here we are.
• 16:23
  So we got the Tulane in Memphis. I'm just looking at the 55 1/2
• 16:28
  point line. Both teams are pretty much
• 16:32
  offensively, they're kind of high octane.
• 16:34
  They're putting them nearly 38 points a game for Memphis and
• 16:37
  has a pretty much balanced attack.
• 16:39
  Tulane is about, you know, 25 to 30 points a game themselves.
• 16:44
  They create turnovers on defense.
• 16:46
  I believe that the turnover ratio favors them as well.
• 16:50
  I don't have my chart with me, but the passing attack for
• 16:55
  Tulane can quickly turn the field into a scoreboard of the
• 16:59
  on their own. So both teams shown they can
• 17:02
  score in bunches. So I'm looking at this one and
• 17:06
  it's 55 1/2. I like the over on this one.
• 17:10
  The weather looks fine so it won't be any crazy rain or
• 17:14
  anything. I so yeah, 55 1/2.
• 17:18
  I am betting on the over for Memphis and Tulane.
• 17:24
  I'm just going to agree with you man, I didn't look at this game
• 17:26
  at all, not going to lie. Well, now he's just jinxing me.
• 17:30
  No, man, I'm, I'm just going to agree with everything you said
• 17:32
  because you broke it down. I did not I, I think I've, I
• 17:37
  after the Mac thing. I, I really tried to look
• 17:39
  because you know, you, you win a couple games like you hit a game
• 17:42
  Tuesday, you hit a game Wednesday.
• 17:43
  There are video out there. You know, you're putting all
• 17:46
  your stats out there. First thing you want to do is
• 17:49
  bet a game on Thursday. I took a look at the two games
• 17:51
  on Thursday and I'm like, no, not going to do it.
• 17:54
  Then I got into Friday and I was like, oh, you as senior guy?
• 17:58
  No, I'm like, you know what, screw it.
• 17:59
  I didn't even look at the other two.
• 18:02
  I'm just going to wait till Saturday and and just.
• 18:05
  Yeah, it's funny how we pick our game.
• 18:07
  So I just look at the, you know, look on, look at the odds and I
• 18:09
  look at the games. I'm like, OK, well, that game
• 18:11
  looks interesting. This looks interesting.
• 18:13
  And then I look at the I think what the line would be for what
• 18:15
  I put it at. And then I I see it's different,
• 18:18
  like, OK, then I look at a little bit more and yeah, the 55
• 18:22
  1/2. I mean, I think this spread
• 18:24
  should be like the Georgia one, like up in the 61 or whatever
• 18:27
  and it's 55. So, you know, that's what that
• 18:31
  was based on me thinking. I think these guys are could
• 18:33
  score more than you know, Georgia Southern and what app
• 18:35
  state so. I don't know, man, You guys,
• 18:39
  some really crappy defenses in that game.
• 18:41
  But yeah, if that's on ESPN, we won't have to worry about
• 18:45
  watching it. So yeah, I don't have.
• 18:46
  To worry about sweating any of these games so I got the next
• 18:49
  two nights free I'll. Try and get check Pete's because
• 18:52
  he's got something tonight. So we'll root for no points in
• 18:56
  his bet for Thursday. But yeah, I like not stressing
• 19:00
  until Saturday. It's it's it's amazing.
• 19:02
  All right, Speaking of Saturday, I only did two things.
• 19:05
  Oh, Nope, that's Pete's. Oh, no, that's Pete's too.
• 19:09
  There we go. All right, A-Team.
• 19:12
  I can't figure out the God damn Florida Gators.
• 19:17
  I think I bet 3 Florida Gator games this year either on or
• 19:20
  against them, and I've lost all three.
• 19:21
  So take I've got them figured out.
• 19:23
  Do you? I don't.
• 19:25
  Like them? OK, well, you don't like
• 19:27
  anybody. That's not Florida State to be.
• 19:29
  Fair. Well, I'm betting them.
• 19:33
  I'm laying the three here. I I mean, they played well
• 19:38
  against Georgia and you can complain about that game all you
• 19:41
  want and you and I did because we both laid the seven with with
• 19:44
  the Bulldogs and they decided to take the knee.
• 19:47
  Smart football play, yes, good play for us, not so much.
• 19:52
  Neither of these teams offensively really excites the
• 19:55
  hell out of me. But I do think Florida is a
• 19:57
  little bit better on that side of the ball.
• 19:59
  You look at some of the common opponents they've had Kentucky
• 20:02
  against good defenses. Does not put up a ton of points
• 20:06
  here. Their offense is still
• 20:07
  struggling even with their with their new quarterback cutter who
• 20:11
  seems to be doing OK. I don't I haven't seen a whole
• 20:15
  lot. You know when when Napier left
• 20:17
  about a ton of kids transferring out.
• 20:20
  I bet their their injury report they've got like 13 guys that
• 20:23
  are out but seven or eight of them are already out for the
• 20:26
  year. But I guess the rules say they
• 20:28
  still have to be on the report anyway.
• 20:30
  So Kentucky, I mean, you, you look at this injury report, you
• 20:34
  could make like half of another program.
• 20:36
  Both these programs have so many kids on the injury report here.
• 20:39
  That is true. I just, you know, I still don't
• 20:42
  trust Kentucky. And I know they went into Auburn
• 20:44
  and beat Auburn, but I think I've learned my lesson that
• 20:46
  Auburn is a train wreck. Then I'll get into that because
• 20:50
  oddly enough, they're my next game.
• 20:52
  I just think they're gonna like, they seem to put up a a spirit
• 20:55
  endeavor for Billy Gonzalez in his first game as head coach.
• 20:58
  I don't think they've checked out.
• 21:01
  You know, I, I think Kentucky has played worse against lesser
• 21:04
  opponents. And again, this is a good
• 21:05
  defense and Kentucky has shown all season long they go up
• 21:08
  against good defense. They struggle.
• 21:10
  So at 3, like some apps had three and a half, I probably
• 21:13
  would have let this one go, but I did get 3 here and I did use a
• 21:20
  nice little another MGM boost. They gave me two boosts this
• 21:23
  week. I used one on Ball State
• 21:24
  yesterday. I'm using the other one on
• 21:27
  Florida here. So slight plus money laying the
• 21:30
  three. But yeah, not not a ton of
• 21:34
  confidence to to go 2 units here.
• 21:36
  But I think Florida is the better team.
• 21:37
  They should win this one by a touchdown or more.
• 21:39
  So I got 1 unit on Florida laying 3.
• 21:42
  Yeah, I like the way they're seem to be playing for the new
• 21:45
  coach again. Forgot his name.
• 21:48
  I don't need to know, Billy. Gonzalez, OR.
• 21:50
  Whatever. But you know, getting back to
• 21:53
  the coaching from the game last week, I think son, I forgot to
• 21:56
  mention we were beneficiaries and victims of the good
• 21:59
  coaching. We we love to watch because with
• 22:02
  Pete's under hit and what North Carolina, Syracuse, North
• 22:06
  Carolina gets the ball 7 minutes left.
• 22:08
  You know, 1 scorer puts the over in.
• 22:09
  And what does Belcheck do? Run the ball 30 seconds off the
• 22:12
  clock, run the ball 30 seconds off the clock, run it all the
• 22:15
  way down. And where any other coach is
• 22:17
  probably lining up, doing a hurry up shotgun spread
• 22:20
  shooting, turning the ball over and or scoring.
• 22:24
  And they don't need to. And then we got another good
• 22:26
  coach with Kirby Smart. Well, just take the knee, get
• 22:28
  the win and get out of town. So, yeah, great for the good
• 22:32
  coaching. But it was it hurt us and it
• 22:34
  helped us. But back to the game.
• 22:37
  Yeah, I like this with the new coach.
• 22:38
  Maybe they'll hire this guy as the as the new one if they've
• 22:42
  seen he's he's a sport of lifer. Man, they they seem to play well
• 22:45
  for him. He's been with that program for
• 22:47
  a long, long time. So.
• 22:48
  Oh, nice. OK.
• 22:49
  I mean, I like when I saw against George, I really thought
• 22:51
  George was going to stop them. Florida was winning in the
• 22:56
  fourth quarter and you know that that play that was ruled not a
• 23:00
  catch. Sorry, man, that was a catch.
• 23:02
  No wonder these SCSEC officials are getting permanently banned
• 23:05
  because they still suck apparently.
• 23:07
  But but again. Didn't see it, couldn't find it.
• 23:10
  It didn't matter, we didn't win the game, so whatever next.
• 23:13
  Oh good, the game was on ABC. Nope Nope.
• 23:17
  That's part of Disney too, so yes it.
• 23:19
  Is it all is All right, All right.
• 23:22
  And my last one, yeah. So here now where I said I was O
• 23:27
  and three picking Florida games. I went back through my stats,
• 23:31
  Vanderbilt games, whether I'm picking on or against them.
• 23:33
  I'm 3 and O, So I feel good about this game here because
• 23:35
  Vanderbilt is involved. I talked earlier about how like
• 23:39
  when those rankings come out, especially after the first week,
• 23:42
  I kind of look at the four to 16 that are just on the outside.
• 23:44
  Well, Vanderbilt's sitting there at 16.
• 23:47
  What I like about teams in that position is, you know, they're
• 23:50
  six and two, seven and two, you know, because some teams haven't
• 23:53
  had their second bye week yet. But you know that when you're in
• 23:58
  that range, that 13 to 18 range, I mean, you basically know you
• 24:02
  got to win out. There's going to be a ton of
• 24:04
  chaos in front of you over the next 4 weeks.
• 24:07
  Win out. And, and you could very easily
• 24:09
  get into this bracket. And I look at Vanderbilt, they
• 24:12
  have Auburn, they end at Tennessee, and they got somebody
• 24:16
  else lame in the middle. Might be Kentucky after this,
• 24:19
  I'm not sure. But Vanderbilt's schedule is
• 24:21
  certainly set up for them to run the table, go 10 and two and
• 24:25
  make a case to be in this bracket.
• 24:28
  Not impressed with Auburn at all.
• 24:30
  I mean, three points against one of the worst defenses in the SEC
• 24:34
  in Kentucky. Ashton Daniels, as awful as he
• 24:37
  was, he's going to be the starter.
• 24:39
  So I feel a little bit better about that because he didn't
• 24:42
  look that good against Kentucky either at 6 1/2.
• 24:48
  You know, again, a number play. If this gets to seven, it
• 24:51
  wouldn't surprise me. I wouldn't necessarily do the
• 24:54
  seven because I've already had like two or three pushes this
• 24:56
  year. But I think Vanderbilt knows
• 24:59
  what's in front of them. I I mean, you already look at
• 25:02
  the rankings. BYU is 7, Texas Tech is 8.
• 25:04
  They play each other this week. So somebody's going to go down
• 25:07
  there. You know, Oklahoma plays Alabama
• 25:10
  the following week. Somebody's going to drop there.
• 25:12
  I mean, it's there for, for those teams that are just on the
• 25:16
  outside looking in. And Vanderbilt definitely has
• 25:18
  one of the best schedules to make the case here.
• 25:21
  Plus, you know, they, what they, they lost to Missouri a while
• 25:26
  ago and then Texas. I mean, they were getting
• 25:27
  shellacked against Texas and I was like, for once, the spread
• 25:31
  went in my favor because I laid 2 1/2 early in the week.
• 25:33
  It ended up going off 3 1/2 at kickoff.
• 25:36
  And then Vanderbilt puts up 21 points in the fourth quarter
• 25:38
  against that defense. No reason why they can't do the
• 25:41
  same to Auburn here. I, I, I don't even know if if
• 25:45
  Hugh Free is getting fired, if they're going to have the, you
• 25:47
  know, the coach bump, Max effort, whatever.
• 25:50
  I I just don't I mean, there's nothing I don't know.
• 25:55
  I mean, nobody can call plays worse than you freeze
• 25:57
  apparently. So maybe there's some some
• 25:59
  optimism there. But going to Vandy knowing what
• 26:02
  Vandy needs to do, I think Pavi will finally actually have a
• 26:06
  good game. You know, he hasn't really been
• 26:09
  lighting it up, but defense is solid, just as good as Auburn's.
• 26:13
  I think. I think at home they'll win this
• 26:15
  one by ten or more. So I do have a one unit play on
• 26:19
  The Commodores here. Oh yeah, I agree.
• 26:22
  I'm ACT. Was anyone really surprised
• 26:25
  Freeze? I saw Freeze getting fired the
• 26:26
  day they hired him. I mean, I didn't think it was a
• 26:28
  good hire from day one. I mean, I was, I was like, why
• 26:31
  it was bad? Yeah.
• 26:34
  Such a bad situation. Yeah.
• 26:37
  It'll be interesting to see how they play out the rest of the
• 26:38
  schedule and get into the playoffs.
• 26:40
  They play Tennessee at the end, don't they?
• 26:42
  Yeah. I think they go to Tennessee,
• 26:43
  but I'm pretty sure it's Auburn and Kentucky at home.
• 26:46
  I, I, I know I think it's Kentucky.
• 26:49
  Don't. I looked and I was like, wow, 2
• 26:50
  bad teams and a Tennessee team with a really bad defense.
• 26:55
  There's certainly a team that can go 10 and two.
• 26:58
  But yeah, I mean, they know what's in front of them.
• 27:00
  They know if they lose their done.
• 27:01
  So a lot of teams that are looking at that situation, I
• 27:04
  mean, hell, it works for Notre Dame.
• 27:06
  Let's just lose all our games by Week 2 and then we'll just put
• 27:09
  that pressure on ourselves for the next three months.
• 27:11
  And it worked out for them. So you know, Vanderbilt's only
• 27:13
  got to do it three times. Notre Dame got to do it 10.
• 27:15
  So, you know, I think the nice little bounce back here for
• 27:20
  Vandy, they might have found sun in that fourth quarter.
• 27:22
  And you know, the reason I bet Texas against Vanderbilt, that
• 27:24
  Texas fourth quarter against Mississippi State, I was like,
• 27:27
  maybe they found something. Hey, you know what, Maybe
• 27:29
  Vanderbilt got a little back on track with 21 points in the
• 27:32
  fourth quarter at Texas. So same, same thought process
• 27:36
  with this handicap. So yeah, 6 1/2, I'll, I'll take
• 27:39
  it. Just one unit though 'cause you
• 27:42
  know, I can't figure out Auburn for the life of me either, but I
• 27:45
  think they're pretty much at right bottom.
• 27:48
  We're trucking through this without the other guy here, but
• 27:50
  so let's move on. We'll do the the RPO segment.
• 27:56
  Yeah, I didn't put too many games on this this week, but
• 28:01
  most of the most of the big ones with everything with conference
• 28:04
  implications there. But Indiana laying 14 1/2 going
• 28:08
  to Happy Valley, total of 448 1/2.
• 28:12
  Thoughts. I'm running to the over, I
• 28:16
  think. I think Indiana's just going to.
• 28:18
  They've been crushing people left and right.
• 28:21
  I like Indiana, but I'm going to play it.
• 28:23
  I'm going to go over here. I think they're going to put up
• 28:25
  kind of like Toledo the other night.
• 28:26
  They're going to put up like 42 or something by themselves and
• 28:29
  that means I'm going to get about 10 and they can probably
• 28:32
  handle that. Yeah, I'll watch you run to the
• 28:34
  window. I'm going to sit back and not
• 28:36
  touch this game at all. It's something frightens me
• 28:39
  about It's been too easy for Indiana that there's got to be a
• 28:41
  bump in the road somewhere. It may it might not be this
• 28:44
  weekend, but it wouldn't surprise me if it happens.
• 28:47
  Georgia laying 9 1/2 at the home of the cowbell.
• 28:50
  Mississippi State total of 57 1/2.
• 28:52
  What do you? Think I hate the cowbell.
• 28:55
  Oh my God, I'd love to see Georgia jump up.
• 28:58
  So maybe we, if we do have to watch this game, they can put
• 29:01
  the cowbells away early. But again, I'm going to lean
• 29:04
  over. I I like I like this game to be
• 29:07
  over. Mississippi State can score.
• 29:10
  Georgia can obviously score when they're not playing Florida.
• 29:13
  So yeah, I like the over here. Getting 9 1/2 intrigues me.
• 29:19
  I'm not gonna lie, Georgia really should win this game by
• 29:23
  21 points, but with their defense not at the level that
• 29:27
  it's used to, wouldn't surprise you.
• 29:28
  Mississippi State sticks around. Here's a nice match up. 7 versus
• 29:33
  8 in the new rankings. BYU getting 10.
• 29:36
  Complete disrespect going to Texas Tech with a total of 52
• 29:41
  1/2. LJ Martin supposed to be back in
• 29:43
  the BYU backfield. Think that makes a difference?
• 29:48
  I am passing on this game. I'm leaning heavily towards BYU,
• 29:52
  but if it was at BYU it would be one thing.
• 29:56
  BYU can make you play their game, so I even though Texas
• 30:01
  Tech can put up the points I like, I'm going to pass, but I'm
• 30:04
  really leaning heavily towards BYU.
• 30:07
  Yeah, I I would lean the other way, but I've been thinking BYU
• 30:10
  was a fraud all year long and every week they proved to me
• 30:13
  they're not. But I'm going to hang on one
• 30:15
  more week and assume that they're a fraud.
• 30:16
  And I think text to text going to steamroll here, but not
• 30:20
  confident enough because BYU already screwed me once this
• 30:22
  year. SMU fresh off their win over EU,
• 30:27
  who apparently is not back. No, they're not at Boston
• 30:32
  College. 55 1/2 let down spot for SMU or are they going to
• 30:36
  steamroll here? I think they steamroll here.
• 30:39
  This is one of the ones I was actually looking at towards
• 30:41
  betting so I would you know I would run pick SMU late at 10.
• 30:45
  I think they steamroll. Doesn't matter about the travel.
• 30:48
  Yeah, personally, I'm avoiding this game, but I'm going to hope
• 30:51
  that Boston College pulls the upset because my Louisville bet
• 30:55
  to win the conference is still has a shot.
• 30:58
  Another SMU loss wouldn't hurt, however.
• 31:02
  Your boys with Texas A&M laying 7 at Missouri, 47 1/2 for a
• 31:07
  total. What how you feeling about your
• 31:09
  Aggies this week? Feeling good.
• 31:12
  I think they're playing well. I think they had the bye week
• 31:15
  last time. We could give a honorary mention
• 31:18
  for the butt cheeks award to Yahoo Sports.
• 31:20
  They had an article today about who's going to win the Heisman
• 31:24
  and their top three were saying Samson and Mendoza barely a
• 31:30
  mention of Marcel Reed. So they get my honorable mention
• 31:33
  for the butt cheeks award. But I like A and M -, 7.
• 31:37
  I should like the over 2. I think they can put up the
• 31:40
  points. So yeah, I like both of those
• 31:42
  bets actually. Yeah, I would lean A&M, but
• 31:46
  again, when we were in Florida, I watch their defense give up 42
• 31:49
  to Arkansas. So I'm like, I have a hard time
• 31:53
  putting my hard earned American dollars on them, but there's
• 31:57
  really no, I mean, Missouri's Tribulus out, you know, Marcel
• 32:02
  Reed is not. There's no reason why Tex A&M
• 32:04
  should not cover this spread. Ah, hey, this one was odd.
• 32:07
  I added this because this this total kind of shocked me a
• 32:11
  little bit. Oregon making the trip almost
• 32:14
  all the way across the country, laying 6 1/2 at Iowa, a total of
• 32:18
  only 40 1/2 in an Oregon game. I mean, what does that tell you?
• 32:24
  What do? What do you think about this?
• 32:27
  I'm running to the over. I may actually put this one in.
• 32:30
  I'll fall. If that's a trap, I will dive
• 32:32
  head first right into it. But absolutely, 40 points total
• 32:37
  with a game involving Oregon. OK, let's let's let's roll the
• 32:41
  dice. See, now I'm thinking that
• 32:43
  that's a lot of respect for Iowa, like you're giving them 6
• 32:46
  1/2 points, but that you're going to tell me this is like a
• 32:49
  24 to 17 game or something like that.
• 32:52
  It's just stinks to high heaven. I don't want anything to do with
• 32:56
  it because, like you said, either Oregon's going to win,
• 32:58
  like, you know, 38 to 17 or they're going to lose, like 17
• 33:03
  to 13. I know whatever I choose, I
• 33:05
  would be on the wrong end of it. So credit to you for thinking
• 33:10
  about betting this. But yeah, I don't want any part
• 33:12
  of this at all. I mean, like I said, Oregon's
• 33:14
  only win against the team of the winning record is Northwestern,
• 33:17
  I believe. I mean, like, who would they
• 33:19
  really be? I mean, if Gronowski can only
• 33:23
  suck maybe half the game, you know this would be a potential
• 33:27
  money line. Sprinkle here on Iowa for me.
• 33:29
  But. Break up the salt.
• 33:32
  Yeah, no salt here. Can't do it.
• 33:35
  Ah, your boys. I always put your boys in here
• 33:37
  because I know you love to rant. They're getting only a point and
• 33:41
  1/2 at Clemson, total of 56 1/2. I just think this game could
• 33:46
  probably go over because you know, these defense looking they
• 33:49
  have any idea what they're doing.
• 33:50
  But what do you think? Yeah, if, well, if the defense I
• 33:53
  played last week shows up, it could be the under.
• 33:56
  I don't know if they can do it two weeks in a row.
• 33:58
  I like that they finally won and Norvell gets a week off the hot
• 34:01
  seat. Hopefully that continues in the
• 34:04
  minority here. I hope they keep him.
• 34:07
  I'll touch on that. Probably next week there'll be
• 34:09
  another show coming out. But yeah, I'll, I'll just roll
• 34:14
  with my boys. I'll take Florida State, I'll
• 34:15
  take the point and a half and I'll take the under.
• 34:19
  I'll give you both right there. All right.
• 34:22
  LSU Speaking of, will we see a bump in performance due to a
• 34:27
  coach being fired, getting 10 points going to Alabama total of
• 34:32
  49 1/2. What do you think?
• 34:37
  I wish for the interim they would have brought back Coach O
• 34:39
  for this game. Bull Tigers.
• 34:41
  It's cool, but getting 10 at Alabama, Alabama's been good
• 34:49
  since the loss. So 49 1/2 too.
• 34:54
  That's juicy. These line makers are good, I
• 34:57
  got to tell you that. That's why they make the big
• 34:59
  bucks. Yeah, I'm.
• 35:00
  Going to pass on this one. This real lean towards Lane the
• 35:02
  points with Alabama here. Yeah, I've heard a lot of people
• 35:06
  buying into the coach bump in a good way for LSU, but can't
• 35:14
  like, I know, yeah, usually during the season you have a
• 35:16
  stinker. Alabama had there's Week 1.
• 35:18
  I kind of feel like there's another one coming, but I don't
• 35:24
  know if this is it. I it's not like LSU was really
• 35:27
  good beforehand. I think they've had a couple
• 35:29
  defensive players that are not playing here.
• 35:31
  I thought I read somewhere Harold Perkins was not going to
• 35:33
  play, which would be a big loss if that's the case.
• 35:36
  But yeah, I don't want anything to do with this game.
• 35:38
  But I would lean Bama but not not enough to to make a bet and
• 35:43
  the last one the Dylan the Patrick Mahomless Nebraska
• 35:46
  Cornhuskers getting a point and 1/2 at UCLAI would I would
• 35:54
  Nebraska this all day long man I'd I mean UCLA is still pretty
• 35:59
  bad as Riola that important to this team?
• 36:06
  He might be. I guess we'll find out, but.
• 36:10
  Yeah, I mean leaning towards over actually just with I think
• 36:15
  they're both not really that good on defense either, but
• 36:17
  maybe a little. But yeah, I'm going to pass on
• 36:20
  this one. I'm surprised no lane kipping
• 36:23
  games here. You didn't give me a chance to
• 36:24
  pass on any of those. Well, Old Miss is playing the
• 36:28
  Citadel I believe, so there's really no I don't even know if
• 36:34
  there's a spread out for that, but I'm sure whatever it is,
• 36:36
  it's at least it's at least in the 40s.
• 36:38
  So I didn't figure that was relevant enough to make the
• 36:40
  list. Yeah, I'm passing on this one.
• 36:44
  Yeah, Nebraska are nothing for me, man, but we'll see.
• 36:47
  All right, let's recap all. Right.
• 36:51
  Well. We're undefeated.
• 36:53
  Yeah. I'll run through his real quick
• 36:55
  here. He's tonight he's he's back.
• 36:59
  He was 5 and O all his games were the under last week.
• 37:01
  So he is he's rolling with the under hair.
• 37:04
  He's got Thursday. For tonight, he's got UTSA and
• 37:07
  South Florida under 67 1/2, Temple Army under 46 1/2, Navy
• 37:14
  and Notre Dame under 55 1/2 and Colorado, West Virginia.
• 37:19
  Wow, what an exciting game that won't be under 54 1/2.
• 37:27
  Tim, recap your picks, baby. Oh they got, they got my 2
• 37:30
  winners this week at Toledo over Northern Illinois by 14 1/2 and
• 37:35
  I got the overnight game 41 1/2. I have 3 bets on two games I've
• 37:40
  got Friday I got Houston got then the money line over UCF and
• 37:45
  I also have the over of 47 1/2 on that game.
• 37:48
  And also Friday night, Tulane and Memphis, I got the over of
• 37:52
  55 1/2. All right, matching was Betty.
• 37:56
  Betty good to me, at least for the first week.
• 37:59
  I have nothing tonight or tomorrow, but Saturday I do have
• 38:02
  Vanderbilt lane 6 1/2 over Auburn and using a Bet MGM
• 38:05
  profit boost for a lane 3 over Kentucky and a little bit of a
• 38:10
  plus money. Thanks, Dan.
• 38:11
  Nice. Yeah.
• 38:15
  All right. Well, should we wrap that up?
• 38:17
  I think that's everything pretty quick.
• 38:19
  Boy, he's going to go out. Goes by fast when you're having
• 38:21
  fun but not the other guy here, you know I.
• 38:24
  Know right, like I said, he's busy spending his money, man.
• 38:26
  He's hit all the time, you know, last week.
• 38:28
  Look at it up there plus 4.47 units.
• 38:31
  Good for him, man. But yeah, guys, check us out.
• 38:35
  Reach us Yeah, look at the YouTube channel comment below.
• 38:37
  Let us know your thoughts on the rankings, who you thought should
• 38:40
  have been in and who you think should be out.
• 38:42
  Let us know your bets, Tim. What's all our socials or
• 38:45
  whatever because I all right. Well, you can find us here on
• 38:47
  YouTube, like and subscribe to our channel.
• 38:50
  Want to send out a thank you to Nick Clayton?
• 38:52
  I believe Martin, Jana and another Nick for subscribing.
• 38:57
  Welcome aboard. Also, thank you, Craig.
• 39:00
  He gave the five star review last week, so that was also
• 39:02
  nice. So shout out to you guys.
• 39:04
  Those people are cool. Be cool like those people and
• 39:07
  like to subscribe to our channel.
• 39:08
  You can also find us on Spotify and Apple.
• 39:14
  That's all I got for that. Worse for me, man.
• 39:17
  Thanks for listening everybody. Good luck with your bets this
• 39:20
  weekend. Maybe we'll be back with some
• 39:22
  more Max shorts next Tuesday. We'll see how it goes all.
• 39:26
  Right. Take care, everybody.