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Felix Prehn - It's Over: Prepare for a NEW Stock Market + Stock Market News 26 May 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this very early pre-market live stream, because, of course, the market is closed today for Memorial Day, but it's days like this that actually make us money.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Because it's days like this where we can actually plan and have some time and some peace to actually understand, like, why did Trump just flip them, what that actually means?
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Like that's the second time in three days, and so I'm going to tell you in the next couple of minutes here why I'm not bearish, and I'll actually give you five charts for that which you can take screenshots off and take away and and mull over for the day, and and I'll actually do one better for you as well, which I'll just explain in a second.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: But first of all, winston is here to share this momentous occasion with us.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: He's not exactly awake though, is he Winston?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Oh, he's dreaming.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: You can see he's dreaming, at least, and he's got very large paws.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Can you see that he's actually having some dreams, probably, of the market being open.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: So anybody who's here and would like to understand why we're actually still bullish, though a little cautious, going into this week Right, well, right, useful, or you, or something like that in the chat down below in the comments and I know that you actually listen and you actually hear, and I wish you also a glorious Memorial Day to each and every one of you, and let me share my screen with you here.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: So this is what your president in the US just tweeted, saying I received a call today from the incredibly charming Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: He was placed there, by the way, because she was a threat to the last German chancellor, so she was sort of deported to Siberia, which is what Brussels is, and they requested an extension on the 1st of June deadline because Trump was going to put a 50% tariff on European goods, and I agreed to an extension until July 9th.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: It was my privilege to do so.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: The commission president said that talks will begin rapidly.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Thank you for your attention to this matter.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: So this is the kind of flip-flop, right, it gets worse, it gets better, it gets worse, it gets better.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: But it does kind of indicate, at least to me, that buy gold instead says Zacks Capital, are you selling gold?
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: I like gold, my friend, you'd be surprised, the gold bull here.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So what does it mean?
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Well, it probably means that tariffs will not come in at 50 percent, right, so it's somewhere less so south of that and that's somewhat bullish for the market.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: And if you just want to see what the exact immediate reaction is to that, here she is vix.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Because vix trades on days like this.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Vix doesn't take holidays.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: This is the fear index, right?
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: The fear index trades on Monday, the 26th, and it is down 8%, trading at basically 20.3 or something like that.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: So that's a nice big drop from the crazy places where we are at.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: So the market's going okay.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: This isn't quite as bad.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Brussels is not Siberia.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Is somebody turned in from Brussels?
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Are there real people in Brussels, not just bureaucrats?
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I'm yanking your chain, my friend, but nobody likes Ursula.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Oh well, I'm sure somebody does, probably married, isn't she?
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: My therapy session, there we go.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to also do something for you, which is tomorrow.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: I asked you guys last week because a lot of people were asking Felix, you often talk about options, why do you never explain it, and so on.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: I thought, okay, fine, we'll do one.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: We'll about options.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Why do you never like explain it, and so on.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: I thought, okay, fine, we'll do one, we'll actually do a proper options session.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: So I'm doing that tomorrow at 10 am, new york time, which is like basically straight after our pre-market live stream here and the market's actually open tomorrow.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: So what I'm going to teach you but actually I want to teach you, like how you could have less risk with options, how you could win 75 of your trades or more, um, and I might also just throw in a little bit about what most people do.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: People are doing leap options and stuff like that and they're kind of getting it wrong.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: So I want to kind of make sure you guys have the foundational understanding there of of how to do that right.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: So we'll we'll go for like an hour and a half or something like that.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Uh, that felix friends of oxford webinar this morning.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: About 1,100 of you signed up already, so we increased the room size to 2,000 people.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: So come and join me there.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: We'll have a lot of fun.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Felixfriendsorg webinar.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: It's completely free, by the way.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I'll be there.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Who's going to be there?
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Put an O there if you're going to be there.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: An O for options.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: I wish you were doing options today.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: I thought about doing these things on public holidays and I'm gulping back my.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: If you're wondering, this is my Gak juice, which comes in about $100 a bottle.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: This is one of my vices which is an incredibly healthy thing to consume.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: I'm told.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: It's got lipocarotenes, which is a very good thing for you, especially if you're a man, not for the reasons that you think, but fairly close.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Very good thing for you, especially if you're a man, not for the reasons that you think, but fairly close to the reasons that you think.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: So Winston will be there too tomorrow, perhaps in slightly better, I don't know.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: He's actually very happy today.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: He's feeling much better.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: He's feeling a little bit off the last few days.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Lots of O's there, brilliant guys, excited to have you all there.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: We're going to have a lot of fun.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: And let's jump into why we are not bearish.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: So you hear me talk about buybacks quite a lot.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Right Now, us stocks are going to do the most buybacks ever.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Buybacks is basically buying your own stock.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: So what's the impact of that?
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Well, there are less stocks, less shares.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Essentially, it means the stock price is going to go up more or less.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: That's at least the idea.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: And if you look at the S&P here in the black line and then in red and blue, they didn't think green would make more sense.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Anyway, in red and blue you have the buybacks and it happens, cyclical, so it doesn't.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Buybacks there is always a period where they're not allowed to buy stocks and sort of the opposite happens.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: In a sense, you have to sort of up and down in buybacks, but overall it's going to be about a trillion dollars this year.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Let me just write that out.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: That's $1 trillion in buybacks this year, which is a lot, and that could significantly increase thanks to the tax cuts that we're seeing.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Which don't she doesn't the wizard's sleeve?
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm sure she's a very smart woman.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: She was a contender for the German chancellorship when Angela was still around.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Angela who says if you're Syrian and have no passport, please move to my country, bring a knife.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: That sort of leader, one of those great humans.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: She was there, and so she sent Ursula to Europe and now Europe has a German president.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: The irony right.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: History is a funny one.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: But anyway, to give a long story short, what do you see?
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Well, if you see the bigly buybacks that we've got here right now and you look at, say, when we did that in 2022, what did the market do?
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Right went, did it go up or down?
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Up or down?
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Put a plus in the chat if it went up, minus if it went down, and I'm gonna answer the question for you and see how many of you got that right one, two, three, four, five.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: And yeah, the market went up a lot.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: So the market could go up a lot more from here, just on the basis of buybacks, right.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: So that's something to bear in mind and feel free to obviously take screenshots of these, these things and stuff, um.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: But we've got some more charts.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: We've got some real charts today.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: We've got five big beautiful bouncy charts here today.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Carrot juice would be cheaper.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: It doesn't have the same concentration of lipocarotenes.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: You'd have to drink quite a lot of those, apparently At least that's what I'm told.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: But then you know, I talked to the guy who makes the juice.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Now you see a bunch of charts here, right, and in a way they all work together, which is why it's actually quite good that they all come together.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: But this is one of the things I look at over on the weekend and I put a little report out for our mentoring community every Monday and I already picked that out this morning.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: So you actually have a whole day to digest it, a whole extra day to digest it, really, and one of the things we look at is the Bull Bear Index, and I see it as a.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Does it make you younger?
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: No, there is actually research out there that GAC, G-A-C the fruit that is and I'm talking about fruit again completely prevents and even reverses what's it called Prostate cancer and enlargement.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Now, don't quote me on that.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I'm sure somebody is going to disagree with me on that, for whatever.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: But I actually bought a friend a box of these.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: He bought him like 12 bottles of these Because he was telling me that he keeps getting up at night.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: He has to go to the bathroom at night like twice a night.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: He starts drinking this.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Three weeks later he no longer does it.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: So not exactly scientific proof, one individual.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: But there you have it.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: So apparently it's a magic thing.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: So I have this holistic doctor in the Philippines.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: She's amazing.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: It's more like a healer than a doctor.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: She's also a doctor and she basically said Felix, if you drink this, you will never have prostate issues in your life.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: It'll never, ever happen.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: And it happens to most men.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I don't have any, never had any, but it's just preventative.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: So I'm a big fan of preventative.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: So there we go Gag juice.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: You can probably get a powder or a pill or something, but I quite like gulping a little bit of the juice every day Now.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Okay, so the bull and bear index, basically when we're really low.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: So when we're really low, we're basically really bearish.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Right, it's a bear down here, it's a bull up here.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: I actually look at it the other way around.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: So for me, when we're at a really, really low level, I'm thinking well, if everyone's bearish, we're bound to change soon, which is what happened.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: And then at the moment we're basically at zero.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So that means we still have a fairly long run to go to go all the way to the top.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: So we're nowhere near euphoria.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: That's basically the way I look at that.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: And yeah, tomatoes have the same ingredient, just not to the same level of concentration.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: The ingredient my male audience and I know you're largely male is called Lipocarotene.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: I think there might be several.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you can find a supplement for that if you care to look into that Bullish investor intelligence service.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Well, we're a little bit bullish, but not that bullish.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: So we're at this level right now.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: So we're pretty bearish by historic standards.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: So are we more likely to go up or down?
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: That's a serious question.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Up or down?
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Put a U or a D in the chat for up or down.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Up or down what is more likely, just by looking at that chart?
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: When you look at that, do you think we're more likely to get more bullish or we're likely to get more bearish?
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Cranberry juice is very good.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, I actually give cranberry tablets to my cats because I've got quite a lot of female cats.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: It's very, very good for them.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: We've got mostly ups.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Who's got a D there?
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Ione, amigo.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: You think it's likely to go down?
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: It's not just a general outlook in life.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you just look at the chart, right, like 99 of the time we're above the present line, right, this is now.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: So, yes, it is much more likely that we're going to go up.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: So well done everybody who got that right, and you can look at a couple of others as well.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: There's put call ratio, which again not particularly elevated.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: We have how many of the world stocks are above the 200-day moving average line?
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Well, sort of a normal amount, nothing particularly extraordinarily overstretched, and that just means that there is a runway to go higher.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: So if you want to take a screenshot of that, do it right now before I take it away.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: So there's some bullish stuff there, right and um, if you want to learn some more about how to take advantage of that, then you know what to do.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Join a join the live webinar tomorrow and we'll walk through how we use options trading to you know% of our trades, and actually we can actually take less risk with options than with stocks, which is kind of a cool thing.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: So what about this?
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: What does LS stand for?
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Long short?
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: So the funds out there, the long short funds, they're basically either buying or they're selling.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: It's a pretty simple concept.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: And the US fundamental long short funds well, they're down here in terms of how long they are.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: So down here means they're very short and up here they're very long.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: And the envy of their friends.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: You get the drift.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: So right now, we're at this ludicrously short level and yeah, so what does that mean?
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Well, it's again much more likely that they're going to go more long and less short, isn't it Rather than down, because we haven't been that low for a while?
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, this only goes back five years, grant you, I'm sure there was some historic precedent where it was lower, but you get the idea.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Are you trading CFDs?
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Nope, never have, probably never will.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: I don't really like the things.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: To be honest, I don't really get it.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: I think it seems to be sort of like take options and take away all the cool stuff and you've got CFDs.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: So I don't really comprehend it.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Plus, winston isn't a fan, are you, winston?
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Winston, what do you think about CFDs?
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: I take the silence as a no.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: So then there is this thing, and this always gets banded about.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: You see sort of the CNBC guys and the Tom Lee guys and so on.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: They always talk about this and they say look, there are more than $7 trillion on the sidelines.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: They could all be buying stocks and there is some truth in that.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: But it's slow-moving money and at the moment you can get like 5% from Uncle Sam with zero risk and a lot of people will take that over the yo-yo stock market any day.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't count on this money flowing into the stock market that quickly.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: But some of it might, if and when interest rates come down or we enter, like the, the biggest boom rally of all times, in which case it might also happen.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: But so it's kind of like I.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: I I'm not a huge like bullish fan.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Just because there's a lot of money doesn't mean it's going to go anywhere.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: If you look historically, there were only relatively brief periods where money actually left these money market funds.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Most of the time, more money flows into it than actually leaves it, because just as the governments print more money, there's more money about it.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Commenters, please stop with the politics Trade what we have there's more money about.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Commenters, please stop with the politics Trade what we have.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: I actually think that's a good advice, because if you let politics interfere with your trading or your investing, you're going to do some stupid stuff.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, try to look on the neutral side of that.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Like I don't care whether the US, the big beautiful bill, is a good bill or a bad bill from your point of view or my point of view.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: I just look at like, well, what does it impact?
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: Right, let's look at the facts.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: I just don't care whether it's good or bad, just ignore that.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Politics is just politics and it's just there, so you have to accept it.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: That's the system, right, you live within, so you just have to deal with it, whether you like it or not.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: And I would just focus on.