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Crypto Crash Not Over?📉Weekend Outlook · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:07
  Speaker 1: All right, everyone, the crash is not over. Get ready
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: for a big weekend. You guys want to stick around
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: for this one. My name is Paul Barrel. Welcome back
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: in the tech path. A lot happening in the crypto
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: markets right now. If you are ready to get into coinbase,
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: because this is the time if you are looking at
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: an entry, now is the time. We're starting to see
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: some options on a lot of different tokens and you
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: can do it over on coinbase, So check it out
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: and see what you guys think. Let's go over to
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: a lot of the headline news today, and of course
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  Speaker 1: some of this is really is driven off of crypto
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  Speaker 1: and macro elements that are starting to unite, and this
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  Speaker 1: is one of them. January PC inflation PCE inflation, this
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  Speaker 1: is the preferred inflation measurement of the FED. This falls
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  Speaker 1: to two point five, with the expectations that they had
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: of two point five. But it's the first decline in
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  Speaker 1: PC inflation that we've seen since twenty twenty four September
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, so that is good news in ji
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: and I think when you look at that, maybe we've
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: started to see a little bit of the reprieve in
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: the markets, both on d S ANDP but also on crypto.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: But if you look at where the market is itself
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: right now, five point seven bill worth of bitcoin and
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: ethereum are going to go on options expiration today, So
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: get ready, guys. We could see a very volatile weekend.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: I know everybody's probably watching it as it dipped right
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  Speaker 1: below eighty thousand last night and many people probably saw
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  Speaker 1: even one hundred and twenty eight dollars Salona down there.
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  Speaker 1: So there's a lot happening. For sure. Investors are pulling
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: out of crypto at a record pace right now. Crypto
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  Speaker 1: funds posted a two point six billion outflow in the
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  Speaker 1: weekending Wednesday. This is the largest that we've ever seen,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: maybe in the history of crypto. So a lot happening again,
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  Speaker 1: a lot of pressure on the market, not only on
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  Speaker 1: crypto and risk assets, but on just almost everything real estate, stocks, bonds,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: you've seen it. Everybody's worried about it. And of course
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: if you look at the current market cap, holding it
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  Speaker 1: about two point seven nine trillion, down point thirty four
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: twenty four hour volume still going up. A little bit
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  Speaker 1: dominance on bitcoin though, at holding at sixty percent and
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  Speaker 1: eight at nine point six percent on the move right now.
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  Speaker 1: Other things that are happening. Of course, if you look
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  Speaker 1: at some of the performance of bitcoin over the last
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: couple of cycles, you can go back to twenty seventeen.
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  Speaker 1: You can see those dips right there that's coming in
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  Speaker 1: from Matthew Siegel over Event K and I mean there's
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  Speaker 1: a lot of deep dips in there in twenty seventeen.
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  Speaker 1: But look at these crazy ones right here. Even to
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  Speaker 1: a certain extent, throw the fifty five out, but I
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  Speaker 1: would look at a twenty six and a thirty one
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  Speaker 1: as consistent. That's where we are right now. So are
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  Speaker 1: we at the max pain or is there still some
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: left in the market. I'd love to get you guys's comments.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: If you're not subscribed, make sure and subscribe right now,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: because it is a very important time to be paying
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: attention to what's going on. Patience is going to play
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: out here in a very big way for many investors,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: and I think the ones that hoddle through are going
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: to be the ones that kind of look at the
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: other side of this differently. Some things you do have
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: to look at is bitcoin's price after havings, and if
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: you look at this, most of the time we have
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  Speaker 1: seen cycles do this up and to the right. This
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  Speaker 1: is the first time that we have seen a deviation
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  Speaker 1: from bitcoin and this is something that is a bit
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  Speaker 1: concerning to me because it does either mean that the
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  Speaker 1: cycle is broken or we have a completely different market
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  Speaker 1: dynamic building right now other things that are playing into this.
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  Speaker 1: If you look at this, this is as I'm talking
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  Speaker 1: about this. When bearish news cannot force the price lower,
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  Speaker 1: it's bullish. When bullish news cannot force the price higher,
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  Speaker 1: it's bearish. And that really is where we are right now.
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  Speaker 1: We are in a time where were getting so much
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  Speaker 1: good news. The SEC is gone, Gensler is out, Trump
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  Speaker 1: is in. Cases are dropping left and right, Innovation is
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  Speaker 1: happening across crypto like crazy, but at the same time
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  Speaker 1: we're seeing the market go down. All of this has
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  Speaker 1: to go with one simple thing, and that is the
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  Speaker 1: macro environment is putting a lot of pressure on risk assets.
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  Speaker 1: Bitcoin is set for a second worst February on record.
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  Speaker 1: Coinbase now cites this as lack of positive catalyst. Mostly
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  Speaker 1: what they're talking about is the macro positive catalyst. The
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  Speaker 1: only time the digital asset performed worse was in twenty fourteen.
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  Speaker 1: When I lost thirty amid the fallout of Mount Gox.
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  Speaker 1: That's a huge one. And then the downturn has also
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  Speaker 1: been driven by the absence of near term catalysts. And
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  Speaker 1: I think a lot of this still plays into Trump tariffs,
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  Speaker 1: what we're dealing with, on getting Selinsky out of the war,
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  Speaker 1: all these kind of things that do put a lot
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  Speaker 1: of pressure on the global economic condition. I want to
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  Speaker 1: go to this clip real quick because this will outline
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  Speaker 1: it a little bit better. Take a look.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think there are two different things here Andrew.
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  Speaker 2: For the first, on the tariffs. The issue here is
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  Speaker 2: not just that the president is going to levy these
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  Speaker 2: tariffs on Mexico, chin in Canada. It's that there's in
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  Speaker 2: sort of the analogy of the fact, there's no forward guidance.
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  Speaker 2: No one knows what the end point is. What does
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  Speaker 2: he want to accomplish? How high do they go? Why
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  Speaker 2: do they go that high? How do you make a
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  Speaker 2: plan in this environment? And that's terrible inciding into markets,
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: very bad for the business community as well. On Doge,
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: with the judge's decision last night that the firings were
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: illegal because they came from OPM and not from the
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: agencies themselves. We're into a second stage. The second stage
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  Speaker 2: is already underway. The Offesome Management Budget sent memoids to
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  Speaker 2: all the agencies and that prepare for large scale reductions
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  Speaker 2: in force, develop a plan, and get those plans back
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  Speaker 2: to us. That's the way you should do this from
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: the get go. If you want to reduce the size
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: of the footprint, you make a plan and you make
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  Speaker 2: a strategic decision on who stays and who goes.
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  Speaker 3: And they don't know where this is all going. They
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  Speaker 3: don't know how far these tariffs are going. And let's
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  Speaker 3: be honest, tariffs are tax increases, their tax increases on
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: on businesses and normal Americans and people are starting to
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  Speaker 3: really believe to your point, this stuff's really going to
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  Speaker 3: affect the economy. You're seeing in consumer index, confidence index,
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  Speaker 3: you're seeing it in the stock markets, and you're now
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: you're seeing it in the polls, and it's really creating uncertainty.
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  Speaker 3: And what do CEOs hate more than anything uncertainty.
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  Speaker 1: I would be totally in agreement with that is that
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  Speaker 1: uncertainty is the one that breeds the most market panic
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  Speaker 1: that we've ever seen, and it also breeds into what
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  Speaker 1: you have a lack thereof right now, which is the
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: forward outlook right now that's not coming out of the
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: White House. So this is another interesting take right here
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: on sentiment, market sentiment, why people are exiting certain stocks.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: This is one that is related to Tesla.
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  Speaker 4: Take a look that when the JP Morgan analysts said
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: that the stock was divorced from the fundamentals. We started
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  Speaker 4: watching it because of the four trillion dollars of assets
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  Speaker 4: that are retirement systems, tens of billions are Tesla stocks.
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  Speaker 4: And frankly, what we're concerned about is that because there's
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  Speaker 4: so much pressure by the Trump administration to kind of
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  Speaker 4: fall in line.
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  Speaker 5: And so the only reason I raised this is because
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  Speaker 5: I think that some people are going to look at
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  Speaker 5: this letter and say that it's politically motivated, given that
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  Speaker 5: the Union is aligned with the Democrats, and obviously eln
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  Speaker 5: Musk is on the other side. It's what is so
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  Speaker 5: different about the divorce of reality from the fundamentals today
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  Speaker 5: that it may have been two or three or four years.
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  Speaker 4: Ago, I don't know. We watched it from the outside.
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  Speaker 4: We have pension funds that have tens of billions of
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  Speaker 4: dollars invested in Tesla, and there's warning signs. So we
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  Speaker 4: wrote to these investment managers and said, tell us, tell
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  Speaker 4: us what's going on?
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  Speaker 1: Because all right, so I have to kind of agree
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  Speaker 1: with this, and I'm pull the political side of this
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  Speaker 1: out of it, because I think when it comes to money,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: people lose their politics really quickly. But I think when
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: you look at a lot of these large investment funds
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  Speaker 1: that are starting to look at market sentiment in general,
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  Speaker 1: Tasla course has been bleeding market sentiment for many reasons.
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  Speaker 1: I think it's not only just the competition coming from China.
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  Speaker 1: What's happening with Elon? Is he going to go back
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  Speaker 1: to work? Is he going to stay in doge? All
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  Speaker 1: those kind of things that do play into the stock
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  Speaker 1: price of TAZL, but also plays into the market condition overall.
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  Speaker 1: And that is something that we are seeing really show out.
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  Speaker 1: If even if you look at our own index, this
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: is our MSI two point zero, which is our dashboard
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  Speaker 1: on sentiment, and bitcoin has fallen off. We have not
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  Speaker 1: seen this much of a falloff. This is almost a
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  Speaker 1: ten point actually over a ten point fall off on
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  Speaker 1: bitcoin alone. If you look at just in general, the
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  Speaker 1: amount of loss that we've seen on Bitcoin and overall market.
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  Speaker 1: Pretty significant that has been happening. And that's even with
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  Speaker 1: bitcoin holding at over eighty thousand dollars a token, So
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  Speaker 1: lots still going here. Just in Michael saale strategy on
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  Speaker 1: bitcoin holdings have dropped ten billion in the last month.
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  Speaker 1: He's definitely going to have to be a Haldler for sure.
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  Speaker 1: World's richest families now where seventy five billion are looking
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  Speaker 1: at a selling spree.
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  Speaker 2: All of this is.
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  Speaker 1: Again looking at market volatility. Are we nearing a potential
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  Speaker 1: situation where the S and P starts to see some
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  Speaker 1: major exits. I will tell you this. I've got some
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  Speaker 1: insider financial advisors that are friends of mine and that
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  Speaker 1: I've talked about very specifically about this point, and that is,
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  Speaker 1: how are you playing out this market? Many of them
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: have looked at exiting their tech positions and are looking
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  Speaker 1: at opportunities elsewhere. Now some of them are saying, hey,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: we do like on the crypto side, we like ethereum,
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: we're a little bit weak on almost everything else, and
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: when we look at the S and P, we're completely
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  Speaker 1: out on tech stocks. So this may be that time
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  Speaker 1: where we start to see a little bit more movement
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  Speaker 1: down the Crypto Task Force, though, if you look at
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: the positive Crypto task Force out of the SEC is
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: still moving and they're doing roundtables this weekend and around
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  Speaker 1: this next couple of weeks. So a lot of good
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  Speaker 1: things still brewing around the benefits of what crypto will do.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Timing is going to be everything here, because timing of
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  Speaker 1: knowing this along with regulation, along with the macro components here,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: because we've got to get inflation under control, and we've
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: got to get this tariff situation lined out to where
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: businesses and people can start to look at kind of
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: an endgame here, and I think that's going to be
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: on Trump's White House to get that done. But more
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: positive news here. I mean normally in any other market,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: just this alone would send it for bitcoin eth and
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: all of these I mean you've got Robin Hood's case
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: gets dropped, un Swap is out, Consensus gets dropped, Gemini
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: gets dropped. These are all huge companies that have massive
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: impact on what's going on in crypto. All those cases
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: were dropped in just in the last week. And where
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: are we We're seeing these massive crashes in crypto. So
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: either this is what's the best time to buy and
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: the bottom is now here, or we are in a
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: different cycle altogether. Looking at the chart. If you just
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: look at bitcoin right now, it is completely deviated away
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  Speaker 1: from where the trend is going now. Yes, it could
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  Speaker 1: return and we could see that one fifteen range on Bitcoin,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: but of course trading right now at eighty four to
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: six after a market dip right there into seventy eight
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: six all the way down last night. Other projects, of
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: course that we're watching as Solana made a nice little
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: recovery I guess if you want to call it that,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: after it had dipped down to one hundred and twenty
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: five dollars. We also saw Avalanche take a little bit
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: of a dip and still on a little bit of
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: a decline at twenty two eighteen. Suite of course holding
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: at twenty excuse me at two eighty two after kind
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: of plateauing right here after that big peak that we
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: saw Suite take over the last couple of weeks, so
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: a few weeks, so definitely a market that is in
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: flux right now. Either this is the best time ever
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: to buy, or we are looking at something where we
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: need to look at hibernation over the next few months
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: and wait for regulatory and macro. Hopefully some macro adjustments
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: within the market that will start to affect this. If
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: you guys are not in the Diamond circle, get in
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: right now. It's a great place to get additional content.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Join us in our telegram group. That's the other part
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: which is very important right now if you're in crypto,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: is really to kind of stay connected to all your communities.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Do that in our telegram group. It's very easy to join,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: and of course catch me out there on x at
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Paul Barron. We'll catch you next time right here on
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: tech Path