Latest / The Common Sense Revolution Podcast / Ep 9: Gherkins, pints and fiddling while Burnham

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Ep 9: Gherkins, pints and fiddling while Burnham · The Common Sense Revolution Podcast

• Gavin Megaw: on, yeah. John Healy delivered his first budget yesterday, and there wasn't much excitement around it. The bond market barely moved. Fraser Nelson called it continuity stoma, and serious commentators are again suggesting there might be an early election, despite Andy Burnham saying otherwise. Welcome to the Common Sense Revolution Podcast. I'm Gavin McGaugh and I'm joined as ever by the journalist Patrick Kidd and writer and policyman Peter Franklin. So, Peter, let's start with you. What was in this budget? Peter: Well, the short answer is not a lot. I think it was Ed Conway of of Sky News that said there's well there's never been so many different measures, but individually they've never been so small. I I I'm struggling to think what the main item was. Yes, the minimum wage was edged up a bit. Various other other things, so some benefits improved. there was of course the hundred quid of energy bills for anyone in I think bands A, B, C, and possibly D of housing of of their council text. so yes, bits and pieces. the overall Were presented as a breathing space. Some might say it's less of a breathing breathing space and more of a pause whilst the government tries to work out what on earth it's meant to be doing. so no, this was not a very big budget at all. And I think it was rather summed up by the Sun front page. Which was let's see if I can remember, it was Shirkin, working, and Gherkin. Right? The Shirkin was, yeah, more more stuff, more benefits stuff, more welfare party stuff. The work in was, yeah, no relief for working people. And the Gherkin was because as part of this attempt to tackle the cost of living crisis, the government has reduced or taken down some tariffs on imported products, which means that there will be four P off a jar of gherkins. So I I Gavin Megaw: Yes. And and if anything's if anything's gonna leave a bad taste in your mouth, Peter, it may be that. look, you you you suggested this was quite a bitsy budget. I think let's just give a bit of context for our listeners. there is, I think, ninety-eight measures in this budget, six and a half billion pounds equated to those ninety-eight. So that works out at sixty seven million pounds a measure. And that is that is extraordinarily Peter: Glad you've done the maths. Patrick: I like gherkins a lot so I'm very excited by the cut. The only thing is that the beer is going up by 2p so every two pints I have has out done any advantage from the gherkin cut. So admittedly a whole jar of gherkins for two pints is a sort bit of an uneven balance but looking around yes I mean it's a big deal and I mean that in a sarcastic sense. You look at everything the hundred pounds of energy I mean every little helps but a hundred pounds spread over the winter is not going to be a huge amount. it much of a difference. He still hasn't really addressed defence spending. fact the Tories were looking at the small print and suggesting that his promise is to spend a bit less than Rachel Reeves had said. Although he has offered 10 billion to Ukraine, which I really do regard and rate. I think that's really important we start matching action to words there. Otherwise, yeah, it's so harm-steady as we go. And so people are now, maybe we'll get onto this, talking about whether this means there is an early election coming because because if he was going to go the full three years or two and a half years remaining, he'd have taken the difficult decisions early. Instead, this is a bit of fiddling. It's not really going to change lives, but he didn't start with the markets. He delivered it okay. mean, know, presentationally, he made a few missteps, but we've seen worse. I just... I think he'll be glad, healy, to get it out of the way. But I think actually it was a good day for the tourism and we can come on to that. thought Kemi responded well and the newspapers have responded to that. Gavin Megaw: Yeah, I think we should get into that because that's what this podcast is really aligned. And what I would say is that I thought it was politically a very smart budget in the sense that it has bought time. It's probably a quat a winter for Burnham as a result of this budget. But economically it's a inconsequential budget. And I think that's the problem, particularly in the way that Burnham set himself up when he came in and also some of the stuff that Helios said. So politically smart, and we'll probably have the backbenchers aligned with them. But just just doesn't deliver in reality. And it's it's left me incredibly confused about what I really think now of Burnham and Healy, and also a bit angry, really, about how they're kicking the can down the road yet again. so let's get on to how Kemi responded. Patrick, you mentioned it there. Do you want to kick off? Well, I mean, was it a was it a big response? Is it one that's been noted by the newspapers? Patrick: well she went straight in with the what we were all thinking which is is that it? This is the one time a year when when actually the shadow chancellor has to defer on financial matters and let the leader take the pressure and it's a hard job because you don't know what's coming. I know there's been leaks, there are always leaks and trails but you don't really know you have to prepare your speech and adapt. And I thought she hit the point spot on. She was helped also by having a very good PMQs immediately before. And Isabel Hardman in The Spectator said that this was the worst PMQs for Kemi, which I thought was a surprising headline until I read on. And she said, because she had played a blinder, no one will be paying any attention. But she did sort of nail Burnham on the Brexit promises he's made. But yeah. Gavin Megaw: Yeah, she was sh sh she was, I have to say, Patrick, I did listen to PMQs. I was I was in London yesterday and I was listening to PMQs, wandering around. and I have to say she was so impressive. She she seemed to have the the heist in the pan for hand. She she signed Patrick: Yeah. Gavin Megaw: it she signed it very much in control. And I think that's fascinating, isn't it, to think, given where she's come from in terms of these performances, how how good she now is. Patrick: We keep looking back to where she was last September, as in 14 months ago. And last year's conference and budget went well and she has grown. Yeah, look, the Commons is packed and there's an air of anticipation. So you've got an audience wanting to see good sport and she provided that. yeah, PMQs were sort of irrelevant. She then got into the budget and basically just... It was one almighty shrug. And that in a good way. She responded to fact that, is that all you got? It's a bit like when Muhammad Ali was on the ropes against Foreman and was whispering in his ear, know, is that all you got, And I think she'll be happy with it. I'm not sure if the Tories do want an early election to be honest because I'm not quite sure if they're ready for it but it certainly, there were drumbeats and you know Burnham was very emphatically yesterday come out and said there will not be another election for I think he said 12 months but it really does feel like this was a budget in which the can was kicked repeatedly down the line. There was a lovely line again in the spectator by James Heel calling it the Emperor Nero budget because it was lots of fiddling while we're in Burns. Although he could have made it better by saying fiddling while Burnham rooms but there we are I'll do the buns. Peter: Well, it's a funny thing, PMQs on budget day. Normally it's a complete irrelevance, right? I think this may be a historical first where the the PMQs was more significant than the budget speech. Gavin Megaw: interesting. Peter: because The Leader of the Opposition did press the Prime Minister on what he'd said about restoring free movement and about referendums on rejoining the EU. he did declined to rule out referendums, right? There was some confusion on exactly what he'd ruled out. does when he said, I'm gonna stick to the budg to the to the to Labour manifesto, but then said, you know, for this parliament. But there's the obvious point that this Parliament might not have very much longer to go before an election is called. therefore we need to know quite soon what Labour's long-term plans are. Well, even not long term, but just For the next parliament that could be coming round within twelve months. and he's refusing to rule out some pretty big things. And again, we've had people like Andrew Haldane saying that opening up all of these questions is just gonna create this added cloud of uncertainty. So, in that respect, the PMQs. Does relate directly back to the budget in that this is not good for the economy to be opening up these questions at this point. and Burnham was all over the place on on on on the the European side of things. So it it it it it's just a mess. It really was a mess. Gavin Megaw: Well, I I'm not sure he was all over the place. and let me explain Peter: Okay. Gavin Megaw: why let me explain why I say that. I think he was sticking to his line very, very closely. He was saying in the PNQ so ki so so Kemi Baidenock asked him repeatedly to relight a new referendum on the EU. And he repeatedly said that he would honor The red lines from the Labour Party manifesto from 2024 for this parliament. So in effect, he's saying, look, there's nothing we're going to do in this parliament before an election, which is going to change that position. And that to me is such a clear signal of what he wants to do. And we've discussed it on this podcast before. And I know, Peter, you thought it was madness if he was to go to an election saying he would put in place a referendum. But Patrick and I pushed back and thought he might. I think this is another signal that he might. And I think more broadly, what we saw yesterday with the budget was just nothing serious coming through to back up what Burnham said about changing the country. And you guys know me, Peter: Yes. Gavin Megaw: I'm a floating floater. I'm someone who wants a party to get serious about this country. Because I think our children are going to be paying for all of this mess. And it really worries me. And I think it's just disgraceful that no one is taking The difficult decisions. And it's why I believe populism is going to flourish if we allow this situation to continue. So the fact that Haley and Burnham did not step up and do that, we can create as many political attacks as we want if we're the Tory party, but fundamentally that is the problem. The Labour Party are talking about giving young people this and helping young people here. What they're doing is they're screwing them, absolutely screwing them because they're not taking decisions. No, and look, I know. The Tory party didn't take loose decisions either when they were in power, but they've been very clear now about what they're going to do. And I I actually believe them on that. but Labour have completely ducked it here. And that suggests to me a real problem. I'm confused by it. That means to me they are going to need an election to get a mandate to do the big things, or they're going to continue to duck the big things. And that is terrible for the country. Absolutely terrible. Patrick: I think, Gavin, that it's always useful to look at what your opponents, or your philosophical opponents, are saying. And the front page of The Guardian here mentions, but doesn't trumpet, the £100 handout, but warns of global storms. It says, budget lacks boldness. And then John Crease, no harm, but not much hope. The trouble is, that's not much of a message to take into an election, either, if his plan is just to get through this. I wonder whether we're going to be made to wait until the European summit on November 20th and perhaps there'll be some discussion there and he will suddenly come out as Theresa May did in March 2019 and say I need an election to deal with my European issue. But gosh, an election in December? It's wet, it's miserable, that would be bold. But set against that, if you put in the latest polling numbers into electoral calculus, which I did at the weekend, and I know all MPs want to see whether they're going to lose their seats. It shows Labour losing about 20 MPs, not many. It shows the Tories gaining about 45, although interestingly it shows the Tories, people like Rebecca Harris and Chris Filp losing their seat. And it shows reform going up to 28, a bit of an increase but still not really much of of a rump there. Gavin Megaw: But this is why I think this was politically savvy as a budget, because what that polling feels to recognise is if he does go to the country and he does do, as we discussed a few weeks ago, he goes with a promise to hold a new referendum or to even go further and say a vote for us is in effect a referendum on Europe and going closer to Europe again. he will sweep up. a lot of Lib Dem and Green voters who presently are not on his side. And I think that is the distinct play from Andy Burnham. And and I've s it's what we've been saying from the start. it it's it he is clearly taking a swing at the left, not the right, with most of this. Now he's got some of the stuff he's saying to try and take out reform on certain issues. He's doing all the centrist stuff and the sensible stuff around, you know, music on trains, all of that, to look like he's listening to people. But his big play politically is to the left, isn't it? Peter: Well, just to correct you what something you said about me earlier. Yes, I said that going on a a sort of rejoin free movement agenda would be madness, but that doesn't mean that I don't think he'll go for it. and it would be for the same reasons as as you said. He thinks he can reunite the left on it. I think he'll soon If he does go down that way, he's gonna have to start making some specific commitments, right? And he hasn't actually yet said definitely free move free movements. And he, as soon as that comes up and he commits to it, which he'd have to if he wants to rejoin the single markets, which would be the kind of softest form of rejoin. he has to say, well, we're gonna lose control of our borders, we're gonna give four hundred and fifty million EU citizens, every single one of them, the right to work here. And then once he's done that, no, not just work here, but live here, once he's done that, he's got to start saying, am I going to allow these people to claim benefits? Am I going to allow them to send child benefit back home to children still living somewhere in the EU. it's gonna be a nightmare for him. And Gavin Megaw: But but P Peter, can I just jump in there? I'm sorry, but he's getting ahead of that, isn't he, though? They're attacking the Tories really, really hard over what happened under the Boris wave and saying, look what happened when we weren't in the EU. So they're trying to say, it is worse, it is worse outside of the EU. That is their Peter: Yes. Gavin Megaw: playbook here. It's actually it's not defensive. It's they're getting on on the attack. Peter: Well, let's have a look at that. first of all, there's absolutely nothing in labor policy so far that would reduce immigration from non-EU countries. So the possibility is that we get Morris Wave style immigration from outside the EU, plus free movement from the EU as well, right? And you can say, well, the specific sort of post-COVID conditions of the Boris wave aren't going to be repeated, right? whether or not Shabana Mahmoud eventually delivers on her promised reforms. but we've constantly got to bear in mind that Marine Le Pen is on the brink of Seizing the presidency in France. There are advances by other populist parties in across Europe. The mainstream parties are reacting to this by getting tougher on things like, well, immigration, of course, and also welfare entitlements. Suddenly, Europe is gonna become, at any point, Potentially a rather uncomfortable place for immigrant populations. And they might look to the EU as a relative safe haven. Clearly, a lot of them already do. We speak English, we have a relatively open society, we have a relatively loose and sort of accommodating labour market. There's all sorts of reasons why a lot of them would wish to come over. And once we get into the detail of these scenarios, I'm not sure that Andy Burnham's sort of let's all unite the left appeal based on on rejoin is gonna look quite so attractive. And let's remember his own speech that he gave about 10 years ago on free movements, in which he very effectively actually made the case that This basically is a way of driving down wages. I think he'll soon find himself in a lot of trouble on all sorts of details once he gets over the vibes and gets into the detail. And we've seen that he doesn't like to get into the detail, which is why we had this complete non event of a budget. Now, if that's if a budget's too much for him to handle. Wait until he gets into the detail of rejoin. my God, this is not the man to do it. Gavin Megaw: It's all fine though, 'cause he was on Goggle Box on Friday night, wasn't he, Patrick? Peter: Yeah y Patrick: I'm afraid I didn't watch it. I was just going to chuck in, there were many, many good lines in Kemmy Baden-Oak's budget response, but one that actually may quash all this, this is to bring it back to the economy, which I naively think the economy matters more than immigration personally, but there we go. When she said, things are so bad we wouldn't even qualify for EU entry now. In other words, the Prime Minister for all his dreams of rejoining, he has added another 260 billion to the national debt, not made any effort to bring it down. Labour would think the answer to this is to spend more money, she said. So basically, would the EU want us? I do think, however, there were important things to discuss with the EU in November about defence. And, you know, I believe, now is the time for us to really step up again to take a chemiline on defence spending, although it's offered more money to Ukraine. It's still not coming close to our defence targets. And she said, I bet Putin's really scared of us now. Gavin Megaw: Yeah. Patrick: it was a ballsy fighting response and I rather liked it. Gavin Megaw: Yeah. look, you you talk about the economy and let's be really clear, a lot of the advantages Healy has gained from his budget for the people he is targeting will disappear in the next month or two anyway, certainly by Christmas. and all the sort of market commentary suggests that we're probably going to see interest rates go up anyway. I think is it next week the bank of thing that make another decision? Patrick: They're expecting two quarter point rises by the spring, which for those of us on track of mortgages isn't good, but inflation is continuing to rise and as expected to go further and that's going to put the pressure. Gavin Megaw: It's yeah. It it and this this is this is the issue, isn't it? And there's a lot of commentators as well who've been incredibly negative about what the UK economy looks like. It's not not necessarily negative about the budget, but they're negative about the whole of the economy. and Patrick: Growth forecast at 1 % next year. Gavin Megaw: yeah, it's pretty devastating really. And the point is the budget didn't do anything to really change that. Okay, it and that was maybe the objective. Not to change anything. But then it brings us back to where we are. And I think I just want to ask you both, because Peter's making the case for why what Burnham may do may be politically difficult to do. And I don't think any of us disagree with that. But based on this budget, and despite him saying there will not be a general election in the next twelve months, do we think there will be a general election in the next twelve months? Peter, what do you think? Peter: Been reading a lot of articles pro and anti there being an election. Well, you know, predicting and not predicting that there'd be an election. And you know, it's like it's like Boris Johnson when he wrote his pro and anti-Leave article to to see what he really thought. and reading all of these people, they both make excellent points, and that's because it's a genuine dilemma, right? He's got an incredibly difficult task if he does go for it. But if he doesn't and waits, you just look at all those charts in the you know, the OBR charts and the Treasury's own forecasts, they really don't look good for twenty-eight and twenty-nine. Just look at the the number of housing completions, right? actually, K Kemi Badenoch did have a little bit of back and forth with Angela Rayner yesterday. well, not back and forth because Angela Rayner couldn't reply, but there were some few a few barbs headed in that direction from Kemi Badenoch, in which she reminded her of Their famous clash. This was shortly before Kemi became leader and she was still shadowing Angela Reina. And she said, they've basically stitched you up. They've given you this housing target, 1.5 million new houses. There's absolutely no way you're going to hit it, and they're gonna you're gonna have to carry the can for it. And she was absolutely right. You look at all the forecasts, you look what's happening in the housing market now. Completions are just declining and declining and declining. Virtually nothing is happening in London at all. This as a marker for the economy overall is disastrous. And does Labour, does Burnham really want to go into a 28 or 29 election? With that as the background? And all of the other things, you know, there there are there are sort of implied spending cuts. in all of these projections. are those rarely gonna happen? Gavin Megaw: Well well, let's get into those because I think that is one of the reasons why I am more convinced that election is going to happen because the the rumors exist because of the arithmetic here. The plans are only going to work from this budget if someone is prepared to cut unprotected departments by 2.6%. So just get that right, unprotected departments. And that is where the Labour MPs will go to war. And they've got to they've got to cut that by 2.6% a year. From twenty twenty-eight. That's a year, not once, a year. And no Labour Party has ever done that voluntarily. It would lead to chaos on the backbenches. They cannot do it and keep their party together. So a fresh mandate is the only way out of the tax pledges that Patrick: Kevin. Gavin Megaw: are being made in in 2024. Patrick: I don't disagree. Personally my view on mandates is that manifestos can go hang. No one votes on manifestos really. And that if you need to change your policy over a five-year term to do things better, people will reward you if it makes life better for them. And if it doesn't, they'll punish you. And I don't want governments to be tied by what they said in the manifesto if it turns out we need to change track. But at the moment he has a stonking majority. Yes, some backbenchers, maybe a lot of backbenchers, will be annoyed if he tries to make the cuts. But I don't think we're going to be in a position where he has a bigger majority after an election. I really don't. I mean, he is going to the country to reduce the number of backbenchers he has. And so why are they going to be any more likely to support difficult decisions? That's what I don't get. And that's why I think he has been afraid. Maybe he should just say to them, the country needs this drastic surgery and it needs it now. And you either back me or we're going to lose the next election. Gavin Megaw: Wha what what do you think, Patrick? Peter has sat on the fence in terms of whether there's gonna be an election or not. What do you think? Patrick: So Burnham was in Gordon Brown's cabinet when he bottled it and might be always regretting it but that was the fag end of a Labour, a third term Labour party. This is still a first-termer. It's quite bizarre to think that you would go to the country after only two and a half years on from winning a huge landslide. There's no logic. And you would be doing it to make yourself weaker. I can't see the logic at all. He is being really emphatic. Gavin Megaw: So so we're we Patrick: I don't get the point of it, but you know, maybe he will, but he is being so emphatic, if he's not, then it's just going to look very weird if he changes his mind. I'm not sure what happens in the news to mean that he can then argue, back in October I said no, but now in December we really do need it, without looking completely weak. Unless he comes Gavin Megaw: Yeah. He would need something, wouldn't he? He would need something to do that. Patrick: out of this European summit with such a good deal, and that's not going to happen, so I don't know, I can't see it, but next summer might be different. Gavin Megaw: Okay. Peter: Look can I can't just get on this logic point? The logic is obvious, which is that he needs a mandate to do all the things that he's all the big ticket things that he's only talking about and not actually doing. He does need a mandate. He Patrick: But why does he need a mandate? Why? Peter: needs a mandate and he needs it soon. Otherwise, he's gonna spend two or three years doing nothing, hoping that the bond markets don't notice that his Chancellor has reduced. The fiscal headroom on the government's finances, but which by the way is how all of the little things, a smogish board of of little giveaways that we heard yesterday. that's all funded by reducing the fiscal headroom at a time when the global situation could throw up any number of crises, right? And so the logic against waiting two or three years is that it gives more time for an accident to happen like that Patrick: Yes. Peter: and completely upending the government, possibly just before an election. So Patrick: You're completely right about that Peter, but I'm dubious about maddits. Can I just add in quickly, there is the reform issue that they are struggling at the moment. Their polls are going down. Farage didn't even show up for the budget. I know he tried to claim that someone had removed his seat ticket, which is pathetic. If as leader of a party of eight MPs you can't say to one of your MPs, budge up or move out, I need to be here. And also they had that laughable press conference earlier in the week that no one showed up to. It was quite interesting. I got three reminders. to that there was a post budget reform press conference yesterday. And it was almost as if they were expecting no one would show up unless they really, and I don't know who did, but you know, reform aren't making tracks. And I just think there are logical reasons why Burnham could go, but I think ultimately he's got a big majority, just act, use it. Gavin Megaw: So look, my attacks on this budget would not be about the numbers. Obviously, welfare would be an area if you were working for the Conservative Party, you'd be pushing defense, which we need to get into as well, by the way. and what's happened there. But I think this wouldn't be really about the numbers, it'd be about character, the character of the people you're opposite on the benches. Because you have Prime Minister who stood up and said all the things which I like. Okay? All the things about tough decisions. But the character is not followed through with making any of that real. It's just words at the minute. And I think you can attack that character in front of his own backbenchers as actually being curtailed by his own backbenchers. I think with John Healy, it's similar. Well, especially on defense. It's a guy who resigned, he got loads of moral capital for resigning over defense. the one line which was not detailed yesterday was the expenditure of his own moral character, really, which he lost when he didn't do what he said he wanted when he resigned from government. And I I find it extraordinary really that that hasn't been more of an attack line for the Tories. I think if I was in the lobby, I'd be pushing that very, very hard really to journalists because this gets to the heart of it 'cause Burnham has portrayed himself as the friend of everyone. And I like that approach. I think he is being very effective. But if you want to get at this, it's got to be it's all words. There's no follow through. And you have to question the character of both him and Healy as a result. that's also a reason why I think the budget will lead to an early general election. Because I just can't see this being followed through on for two, three years. I just can't see it. It's impossible. Patrick: except that if they didn't have the courage to deal with it in the budget maybe they won't have the courage to call an election either. Gavin Megaw: Yeah. Well, if that's the case, then we're in a really, really dismal place as a country. And and let's be clear. The dividing lines for the Tories and Labour are now as clear as anything. So the Tories will be very pleased about what happened yesterday because it gives them the attack lines they can really hit on and it's the economy. Patrick: Yeah. Gavin Megaw: And I think we said that in our first podcast record. We all thought that was the dividing line. and it is becoming that quickly. Patrick: I think what is key also is the Tories need to start developing, I hope they are developing policies that they can sell to the country, whether it's an early election or not, on things like Peter said about housing and stuff. They need to show that they have the ideas, that the country is not just on the wrong track, the country is stagnant. And maybe enough time has passed since the Tories were in government that they can start saying, we are the party to get it going again. to which the response of Burnham is, you left us in such a mess, that's why the economy is stagnant. But you know, they've now had two and a half years to show they have ideas and they don't seem to. I do think it's a drift on situation though, that's the really sad thing. But hey, Harry Kane won the Ballon d'Or, that's what matters. Peter: there is one thing that really should be mentioned, and that is that the Treasury projections assumed that the Rosebank oil field would be up and running quite soon, which means it would get the government approval. That's really quite odd because as yet, there is no cabinet approval for that to h happen. And it's clearly a matter of contention within the cabinets. You've got clearly you've got Healy and possibly Burnham on one side, and you've got Miata Farnbuller, the energy secretary, and possibly more importantly, her patron and friend Ed Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, on the other. And so one side or the other is going to be humiliated. by this decision. And it's interesting that as part of his the only really interesting thing in a very lackluster speech, not only in terms of its content, which we've discussed, but the delivery. Goodness me, that was dull. But there was one moment that was interesting, is that when he talked about the Jackdaw field having been approved, he he said, and the energy sector opposed, sorry, sorry, sorry, supported that decision, right? And was that a deliberate, was it just a Freudian slip? I don't know, but it does seem to point to a possibly damaging split, which is amplified by the backbenches, Labour backbenches, which are overwhelmingly sort of hardline anti-North Sea on all of this. and that's another point of contention for Labour and more trouble down the road and yet another example of Andy Burnham putting off decisions to the last moment. so yeah, more trouble ahead. Gavin Megaw: Yeah, it's interesting that 'cause there's again a party handling problem there. it looks like there's increasingly going to be party handling problems for Burnham and Healy as they move forward, partly because of this budget. It made it it made people happy today, but it won't make them happy in a year or two. Shall we move on then to see whether we think it's been an up week or a down week for Kemi Baidnock and the Conservative Party? Peter, let's start with you. A good week or a bad week? Peter: So undoubtedly a good week. It is actually the first week that in across a lot of the the the the the polling trackers that average out all the polls, this is the week that a lot of them show the crossover between the Conservatives and Reform. So the Conservatives do seem to be edging into second place ahead of reform. That's by a very small margin, but it rarely matters in our electoral system. And it's now increasingly likely that if there is the early election that we've been talking about, speculating about, then the Conservatives would end up with more seats than reform, especially when you factor in tactical voting. So that's got to be a huge encouragement. Patrick: I've been sitting on the fence in recent weeks, but this is undeniably a good week. Baidhanock is the main reason, and I think we will see as the debates, as a four-day debate responding to the budget that follows, it's now up to her troops to show that they can also rise to the occasion. But she has got the party right behind her, not just in Parliament, but out on the doorsteps. And you know, if there is going to be a winter election and people need to be motivated to go out and knock on doors and deliver leaflets, them feeling they've got someone who is actually capable at the helm is an important thing. So yeah, look at the front pages, look at the Labour supporting front pages, it's clearly been a very good budget for the Conservatives. Gavin Megaw: Yeah, I I would agree. It's been a good week, but I'd be reticent by saying it was been too good a week because I think if you were to go out into the country and speak to people who aren't as involved as we are and in the bubble like we are, they will probably not know much about the budget, but probably be fine with things like the the gas savings that they'll be given and other aspects. And I also think we sometimes misunderstand the importance of doing things like goggle box and stuff like that for the Prime Minister. Whilst people don't necessarily love it every time, they do recognize that he's doing things differently and he is there. And it there will be an impact from that. And that's again why I think that maybe understanding what focus groups are saying out there in the country is as important as anything here. and, you know, otherwise we'll be in a sort of Brexit situation where we don't really understand what is happening. and I wanna keep reiterating that because I think it is a problem for Westminster more generally and one that we must try and avoid too. Patrick: Also, the usual law of unintended consequences in politics. This is the week when Wes Dretinger said there'll be war in three years' time and the government has started urging us to stockpile. We may find the nation starts stockpiling gherkins and really likes them. And this turns out to be the miracle policy. Gavin Megaw: I have to say I did Peter: Yes, but this could this could unleash massive Gherkin inflation. have you have you thought this through, Patrick? Come on, come on. Patrick: and the effects of pickled goods on the environment. let's not think about that. Gavin Megaw: I I th I thought Patrick you would have liked Peter: Ha ha ha. Gavin Megaw: Angela Raynor's response to what she was gonna stockpile. Patrick: What in the... Following her advice, I've been doing my own stock check and I'm worried that my Claret surprise are very low. But I've got quite a bit of downturn so I should be alright. Gavin Megaw: Right. Shall we move on to recommendations then? Peter, what's your recommendation for the week for our listenership? Peter: Well, my recommendation this week is a fun fact, which I've come across kind of randomly. it is it concerns the head of state of one of the Axis powers during the Second World War, right? And th not a very remarkable person at the time, but from the perspective of twenty twenty-six, there is something absolutely Quite remarkable about him, and it's this he's still alive. Yes. Yes. now Gavin Megaw: Wow, who's this? Peter: now I I should it's not Hitler, right? I just want to reassure. I I I Gavin Megaw: Is he hanging out with Elvis somewhere? Peter: haven't I haven't discovered him in an old people's home, very old people's home, somewhere in Argentina. No, it's no, Patrick: Stafford Crips. Peter: it's not. Gavin Megaw: Ha ha. Peter: It's It's King Simeon II of Bulgaria, right? who was a a child king at the time, or should I say Tsar, because in Bulgaria they had czars, not kings, right? And he is still alive, he's 89. He remarkably in once he he abdicated, he was forced out when the communists took over. he came back decades later when communism fell and became Prime Minister of Bulgaria from 2001 to 2005, which must count as one of the greatest political comebacks in history. and he's still with us. So you know, well done, Simeon the Second. Gavin Megaw: That's extraordinary. You should go and do a piece on him, Peter. Fly over and meet him, surely. Peter: I yeah, well I don't know if he's receiving guests, but he is he's still with us. Gavin Megaw: Okay, Patrick, do you wanna come in with your cultural one? Patrick: Well indeed, I've just started watching the new series of The Diplomat on Netflix. I think it's series four we're up to now. I don't know if both of you watch it, but it is about an American ambassador and it's a political thriller. One of the things I particularly like about it though is that at the end of the last series we were introduced to a new American president and her husband who are played by Alison Jani and Bradley Whitfield, who we all know of course as CJ and Josh from the West Wing. I know you're... Gavin Megaw: My dog is named after CJ. Patrick: Well, I was going to say, I know that you're such a big West Wing fan, Gavin, that you even named some of your children after characters. Admittedly, Ron Butterfield and Mrs. Lanningham are odd names for children, but I would have thought Gavin Megaw: Ha ha ha. Patrick: they were. And your dog is CJ. It's lovely to imagine that CJ and Josh end up married and running the West Wing. But I've watched the first two episodes. I won't give anything away, but there was a wonderful twist at the end of the first. The other thing, though, is it has the gorgeous Kerry Russell as the ambassador. And since season three, I've watched The Americans, which came out 10 years ago, in which she plays a Soviet sleeper spy. And of course, I'm now tired by watching this, thinking, gosh, is this going to turn out she is actually a Russian all along, based in the American embassy? So it's good fun. Good, good. Gavin Megaw: Yeah. Patrick: Now I've moved on from all creatures great and small. Gavin Megaw: I did watch the first episode of this series with Helen just the other day. And I I I confess to sort of saying towards the end, not much has really happened in this. This is a bit dull. And then the last thing that does happen, happens and you're like, I will be watching the next one. Patrick: And I was just thinking where was Ron Butterfield to stop that? Gavin Megaw: Yes, quite. Very good. Peter: I I yeah, I've j it's interesting Patrick mentioned the Americans, which is an absolutely great series, and arguably it had the best final episode of any TV series in history, and I don't mind admitting that I was blubbing like a baby throughout the whole thing. It was stunning. So Kerry Russell, yeah, fantastic. Gavin Megaw: Very good. Now I've got two recommendations. One is a former guest of this show, David Davis, has teamed up with Gitto Harry for a new podcast. I know we shouldn't be recommending anyone else, but we're all a bit different than what we cover, aren't we? they've released Politics Unleashed in the last week. You can get it on YouTube or any major podcast supplier. And I think it's a really good chat between the two of them. They've got really great chemistry. David's got loads of experience, and Gitto is a great conversationalist and storyteller as well. So I highly recommend people listening to that. But another recommendation for me is I, as as Peter probably points out on a regular basis, I'm not wet liberal in the middle. So I like reading things like The New Yorker. And I was reading an amazing article in the recent New Yorker by Bob Woodward, the journalist that we all remember from great books over the years and you know taking out Nixon and Watergate and all of that. But it's a really personal story about his friend, Woodward Darman, who was a top advisor in the White House under Reagan and then Bush. And what's fascinating to me is it's really about male friendship. and friendship between a journalist and someone who has given him information to write his pieces. Woodward said at the end he never had a friend, another friend like Dick Darman. Yet they fell out over stories that Woodward wrote about Bush, his administration, the economic missteps that taken just before the presidential election in 1992, which George Bush lost, of course, to Clinton. because it was pretty obvious to everyone who his sources were. And it reading it, you get a real feel of how hard it is often for male friends to have proper conversations. and it's it's I found it a really sad but enlightening piece, and it's really worth reading. I'll put a link to it in the show notes because you know, I I don't think enough is written about male friendship really, and Well, this also brings in politics, which is of course to interest to us, but I think it's worth a read. Right. well, thank you for joining us for the Common Sense Revolution podcast this week. We hope you enjoyed it. If you did, please like, please subscribe, and please share it with your friends, because that's how people find us. And we'll be back next week for more. Thank you very much. Peter: Bye bye. Patrick: Thank you. I have