Latest / Closing Market Report / Nov 11 | Closing Market Report

Transcript

Nov 11 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report for the November 2025. It's Veterans Day. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm.
• 0:16
  She's at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. We'll explore how effective the wetlands reserve program initially established some thirty five years ago and now with the name change has been at providing a way to improve water quality. And then as we wrap up our time together, we'll take a look at the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Dante. He's a day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.
• 0:48
  It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.0rg. Here's a quick history of Veterans Day provided by the Veterans Administration. You know, world war one, known at the time as the great war, officially ended when the Treaty of Versailles was signed on 06/28/1919. However, fighting ceased seven months earlier when an armistice or a temporary secession of hostilities between the allied nations and Germany went into effect on the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month. For that reason, 11/11/1918 is generally regarded as the end of the war to end all wars.
• 1:35
  Today, Veterans Day continues to be observed November 11 regardless of what day of the week on which it falls. It's a celebration to honor America's veterans for their patriotism, love of country, and willingness to serve and sacrifice for the common good. To our veterans, thank you. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day at $4.32, two and a quarter higher.
• 2:05
  The March at $4.47 up two and a half. And the May futures $4.56 for corn up two and a half cents. January soybeans down two and three quarters, $11.27 at a quarter of the settlement price. The March at $11.38, a penny and a quarter lower. Bean meal, $3.10 lower.
• 2:21
  The bean oil, up 52¢. And soft red winter wheat, a quarter higher in the December contract. It settled at $5.36. The hard red was down three and a quarter at $5.23 and three quarters. Naomi Blum from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin All joins us.
• 2:37
  Thanks, Naomi, for joining us on again on another Tuesday. I thought maybe it was gonna be a turnaround Tuesday actually to begin with, but it's more of a lackluster kind of Tuesday, I guess. What'd you think of the day's trade?
• 2:51
  Naomi Blohm: Well, that's actually a perfect summary, Todd. I thought too we were gonna see lower prices as the day went on just because of a lack of friendly news. However, the markets were able to muster up a little bit of strength. We saw some very modest day trading and range trading, but we just didn't have any real fresh news today. It does feel like we're seeing position squaring ahead of Friday's USDA report.
• 3:17
  Some pre report estimates came out today for the report. In general, they're looking for slightly smaller corn and soybean yield for that report, but yet they're not looking for too much change in ending stocks. So that tells me that the traders are thinking not only will there be adjustments on the production side, but there may be some tweaking of the demand side as well. So now when I just look at these pre report estimates, they don't look like anything really exciting, and that actually kind of correlates with a traditional November WASDE. Usually, it's a kick the can down the road type of report.
• 3:54
  But, of course, with the government not giving us a report for the October numbers, we are in limbo, so we're gonna be hanging on every single line item that comes across the newswire with this report Friday. We'll see if we get any fresh news or not.
• 4:08
  Todd Gleason: If it doesn't change very much, or is in line, I suppose, with what the trade is expecting, does that mean sideways trade through January, or do we start into the winter doldrums and things drift lower?
• 4:22
  Naomi Blohm: Well, I would actually guess if we don't get any fresh news, it's gonna be hard for the market to just push through these, short term resistance levels that we're at. And then we might see that seasonal pullback that we oftentimes will see into Thanksgiving, hence the expression, the bears get Thanksgiving. But then the next part of that expression is that the bulls get Christmas. So if we do see any pullback here, I think that there's gonna be a lot of traders who would be eager to jump on that as a buying opportunity as we get closer to month end as we still have, of course, plenty of debate and discussion about where The US corn and soybean yield is ultimately going to end up and further debate and question regarding export demand and and China's actual, amount that they're gonna be purchasing from us. And then we're gonna be combing through weeks of export sales report as soon as the government opens up along with the commitment of traders reports for fund trading as well.
• 5:19
  So it may be quiet and modest trade. It could be something that we see a simple pullback of prices. Ultimately though, we're in that seasonal timeframe where, whatever kind of a pullback we see, we usually gear up higher towards the new year. And then there's some kind of a weather issue that might pop up in South America. So lots to talk about, not just this Friday, but in the coming weeks as well.
• 5:45
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. So the weather issue, we would have talked about would have been planting. Now we're waiting to see what mid season might look like. Once that comes around, we'll get a better chance, for soybeans again. It would be interesting to see how that might play out if it corresponds closer to the end of the year with some Chinese purchases.
• 6:05
  No matter when they're to be delivered to that nation, that might spark some fireworks, I would suppose, in the soybean markets.
• 6:13
  Naomi Blohm: Yes. Absolutely. Any any true confirmation of Chinese demand will be something that the soybean market and traders latch onto, with gusto. And they're starting to say, like, as far as South American weather goes, that it's starting to be maybe a little bit drier in Argentina, so we'll wanna keep an eye on that as well.
• 6:33
  Todd Gleason: What else have you been watching, whether it's in the livestock, the outside markets, the corn market, demand for ethanol, those kinds of things?
• 6:40
  Naomi Blohm: Yes. We're gonna be keeping an eye on that for Friday's report. So far, when we look at export demand for corn, our export inspections have been ahead of schedule. Weekly ethanol sales reports have kept us right on target with ethanol demand. So plenty of, again, line items to be looked at and dissected on this report and plenty of things to be talking about as the week progresses.
• 7:05
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. And the other thing, as you mentioned already, once we start to get USDA reports coming out again, a lot of things will happen. The marketplace will dig through them, and there may be some guidance as to which direction this marketplace needs to head. Speaking of guidance, what are producers asking you about at this time? Have they shut the bin doors and or just being quiet, or are they really concerned, thinking about when and where they should price either corn or soybeans?
• 7:33
  Naomi Blohm: Lots of different conversations. In general, I think the bin doors are closed. However, there's conversation of, hey, this bean price is still pretty good. Maybe I'm going to just do some sales to reward the rally. But in general, they are really starting to think about, where they should be placing price to the upside if we can get a rally higher from here.
• 7:55
  They're thinking about if they made cash sales, should they be looking at re ownership and what does that look like, and what does it cost? So lots of different thoughtful conversations, but definitely people too keeping an eye on basis and basis levels. And, you know, the the December contract for corn, anyone who has basis contracts based off the December contract, first notice day is gonna be in a couple weeks, so you're gonna just have to decide if you're gonna price or roll. So that's gonna be another, conversation to be thinking about. And, we'll see if if Friday's USDA report gives us reason to price sooner than later or to maybe wanna hold and roll.
• 8:36
  So, don't rest on your laurels right now. I know that you're probably exhausted from harvest, but the markets are just gonna start to wake up, and you gotta be watching and keeping pace with it as well.
• 8:48
  Todd Gleason: Soybeans within in at least the November contract. I know it's not the lead option, relatively speaking, at the moment. January, the most traded. But it's within a 10¢ of its top at this time. Are are you thinking producers should take some advantage of that or not?
• 9:06
  Naomi Blohm: Yes. Absolutely. Because, you know, when you think back, we've had a nearly a dollar rally on that soybean market. And so the market, place is still holding up higher, and and the risk would be when I look at a chart, you know, we are just a few pennies away from major sports, and then if that support level breaks and that's in the form of some of these moving average lines, we could see a very quick 20 to 30¢ washout lower, which coincides with that seasonal sell off. So if you wanted to still reward the rally, this is the best price you have had pretty much all year long in that soybean market, and it would be prudent to be thinking about making some sales just in case we don't get any fresh bullish news on Friday.
• 9:50
  If we don't get the fresh bullish news, the path of least resistance likely is lower.
• 9:55
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks much, Naomi. We'll talk with you again next week.
• 9:57
  Naomi Blohm: Thank you.
• 9:58
  Todd Gleason: That's Naomi Bloem. She's with totalfarmmarketing.com. Up next, a conversation about wetlands with Marron Skidmore. You have written an article for the PharmDoc Daily website that's titled Nature's Kidneys in Part, a review of thirty five years of USDA wetland restoration. Why were you interested in the topic?
• 10:24
  Marin Skidmore: There has been previous research studying the benefits of wetland restoration for nearby farmland, looking at benefits for surrounding fields in terms of yield and reducing the number of prevent plant dates. And so there's evidence that these easements can be privately beneficial from the single farmers perspective. But another major part of the motivation for wetland restoration is this broader environmental benefits that wetlands can help improve water quality at a larger scale. And despite the fact that the Wetland Reserve Program has existed for thirty five years, No one had actually put into data and tested the benefits of these wetlands that were restored by the USDA.
• 11:18
  Todd Gleason: So you were looking to try to figure out how much the wetland was helping to reduce nutrient loads in watersheds particularly and sub watersheds. This seems like it would be very difficult given the comparisons that have to be made. What kinds of things did you do to control what this data, managed to show and to make sure that it was finding the items you were looking for?
• 11:48
  Marin Skidmore: Absolutely. As you said, there are so many factors that can influence the nitrogen and phosphorus concentration in a stream or a river on any given day in any given watershed. And so our approach was to compare sub watersheds before and after a wetland was restored. So we're getting that comparison of the same sub watershed before and after the first restoration, and then also looking at a really large geographical region. We have the entire Mississippi River Basin, and that means that we have different sub water sheds getting their first restoration and then getting subsequent restorations at different moments in time.
• 12:37
  So that's the intuition. On the specific side, we're comparing we're controlling for seasonal variation in water quality. Largely, we have higher nutrient concentrations in the spring as we get rainfall and snow melting. Variations across space. So what is the type of soil in that sub watershed?
• 13:00
  What are the slopes surrounding the streams in that sub watershed? We do directly control for precipitation and temperature in any given month. And through that, we really try to isolate the impacts of the wetlands.
• 13:16
  Todd Gleason: So to be clear, these are USDA programs. They are part of the Wetland Reserve Program or WRP that was folded into the Conservation Easement Program in 2014. In your paper, you say the average payment in a farmer has to give up the these areas completely. Though they retain ownership, but they cannot farm them, on average, they've been paid about $2,700 an acre. And then I think that I've got this right, that it cost about $650 an acre to be converted into a wetland.
• 13:50
  The average size is about a 100 acres or the medium size median size, I should say, is about a 100 acres. How good are these actually at reducing nutrient loads like nitrogen?
• 14:05
  Marin Skidmore: They're really enormously successful relative to their size at reducing nitrogen in the surface water. So our estimate of the first wetland easement in the sub watershed is that we find a 62% decrease in ammonia in the nearby sub watershed and 37% decrease in total killed on nitrogen. Those are two different chemical forms that nitrogen can take. Of course, nitrogen moves through the nitrogen cycle and and different conservation staff members might take a different type of water sample. So we have different ways to measure nitrogen.
• 14:50
  But in either case, we're finding really meaningful decreases from even just this 100 acre restoration.
• 14:57
  Todd Gleason: Now across the Corn Belt, most states have been working through a nutrient loss reduction strategy program trying to control the runoff of these kinds of nutrients. You, through this research, suggest that putting wetland in is a really good way to do this.
• 15:20
  Marin Skidmore: We did. Of course, we see wetlands as part of a broader approach to reduce nutrient loss. They fit really well into an environment with lots of different best management practices. But our research really suggests that wetlands are a tested and proven method to reduce nitrogen concentrations especially in places like the Corn Belt that are dealing with perennially high nitrogen concentrations.
• 15:55
  Todd Gleason: And you also took some time near the end of this article, which, again, people can find on the PharmDoc Daily website. Search for nature's kidneys, and it should come up. You suggest that for communities that have surface water, this is a really good way upstream to make sure that they have cleaner water coming into the system and I think more cost efficient.
• 16:22
  Marin Skidmore: That's exactly right. Local utilities, specifically public water systems, are already required to maintain nitrate levels in the water they supply for drinking water below a level set by the Safe Drinking Water Act. For utilities that have high nitrogen or nitrate levels in their source water, this can be a meaningful cost. Especially for small communities that have difficulties with their local budgets. Anything that helps reduce the water treatment costs can really have an impact.
• 17:00
  And so directly lowering nitrogen in the source water reduces those water treatment costs and helps pay back the cost of the initial wetland restoration.
• 17:10
  Todd Gleason: And importantly, in this particular article, you took time to make note that the producers, farmers, the landowners that you talked to had anecdotally really good feelings about putting these wetlands in and what this restoration meant not only to their community, but to their families, I believe.
• 17:31
  Marin Skidmore: Yes. I think one thing to understand about wetland restoration is that many times wetlands are being restored on what continues to be a working farm. This is still in the hands of a family that is engaging in agriculture. But now in addition to their working profitable farm, they have a small area that can be shared with their children with future generations where they can, as you said, anecdotally, go fishing, for hikes, have picnics by the stream. Of course, the wetland itself is, you know, quite swampy, but it's this legacy that you can share with your family.
• 18:15
  And because of the nature of these permanent easements, it's something you know is going to be shared with the next generation.
• 18:22
  Todd Gleason: We've been talking with Maren Skidmore today. She is an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois and coauthored an article called Nature's Kidneys. It's a review of thirty five years of USDA wet land restoration. Marron, thank you for taking so much time for me today. I appreciate it.
• 18:39
  Marin Skidmore: Thank you, Todd.
• 18:54
  Todd Gleason: Let's turn our attention now to the weather forecast. Don Day is here from Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hello, Don. Thank you for being with us.
• 19:02
  Don Day: Thanks for having me.
• 19:03
  Todd Gleason: Let's start with a cold snap that we are passing through at the moment. Can you tell me about what caused it, and what it might mean going forward, if anything, for the next few days?
• 19:16
  Don Day: Well, we learned that tariffs on Canada will not stop cold. They will export cold air. Yeah. No tariffs there. I think I think a lot of people would like to to do that, but, you know, that we had a pocket of very cold air, not a big one, but an intense area of cold air up over the Northwest Part Of Hudson Bay that's been building and growing over the last several weeks.
• 19:39
  And we had just the right setup for what we call a big cross latitude movement of air from basically the Northern End Of Hudson Bay all the way into the Deep South Of The United States. Really, gotta go back to see something like this this cold this early. We've gotta go back about nearly fifty years or so, back into the middle late seventies when we saw a similar situation. So quite the shot of cold air, freezing temperatures all the way down to the Gulf Coast Of Florida this morning. The good news is that, it's gonna be moving out.
• 20:12
  We're already seeing temperatures moderating on the western side of this, and we will see moderating temperatures. But I think this is a shot across the bow giving us a heads up that there's likely more of this to come this winter.
• 20:24
  Todd Gleason: Let's talk about the moderating temperatures first. By the weekend, fairly warm in my part of the world. What about the rest of the Midwest?
• 20:31
  Don Day: Well, just about everybody because the jet stream is gonna straighten out for a little bit, and that's gonna bring Pacific air across the nation allowing mild temperatures to really be found coast to coast briefly, but the rebound is gonna be quite significant. Temperatures are gonna be going up quite a bit. Now we we do see colder weather coming back into nation's midsection. As we get into about a week from today or so, we'll start to see some cooler air come in as what we're gonna see is kind of a shift of the colder weather moving into the Western United States next week, and that's gonna push eastward. So we're gonna have a warm up.
• 21:09
  We're gonna have a rebound that's got some lakes to it. It'll go about five or seven days. But once we get into that end part of next week, end of Thanksgiving week, there's going be some ups and downs. We're going to have some more opportunities for colder weather.
• 21:23
  Todd Gleason: Sounds like the transition to winter will begin at some point. Can you tell me about what you're thinking as it relates to December?
• 21:31
  Don Day: Well, really looks like the last week, Thanksgiving week, into the December. Some of the the long range tools that we use, in particular, there's a there's a model that that tries to predict weeks in advance out to six weeks, and it's been very, very persistent at advertising a shift in the jet stream pattern that will allow the door to Canada to be open more often than it isn't for that November through all of the month of December. So it doesn't look like we'll be able to hold back winter very much longer.
• 22:06
  Todd Gleason: Does this mean we'll have more cold air spilling out of Canada into the Western United States, or is it further east?
• 22:14
  Don Day: I think there's a really good opportunity that the month of December for a lot of The US will have episodes of cold. And the favored area is the nation's midsection. But even even some cold snaps even as far West as California and as far East as New England will happen during that. That five to six week period from from Thanksgiving week up to the New Year.
• 22:35
  Todd Gleason: K. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again next week.
• 22:38
  Don Day: Sounds
• 22:38
  Todd Gleason: good. Donde is with Dayweather. He's in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Medium. Do visit our website, willag.org, willag.0rg, where you will find a way if you've not already registered for the farm assets conference or the Illinois farm economic summits to get yourself signed up.
• 22:58
  Don't wait. Do it right now today. Willag.org for the December conferences brought to you by the Farm Doc team and Illinois Extension. I'm U of I's, Todd Gleeson.
• 23:49
  Don Day: Hi.