Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 115 - 9/9/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 115 - 9/9/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:17
  Hello, and welcome to episode 115 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:23
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:26
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:34
  Happy Monday, a new week begins. First week of the NFL almost
• 0:38
  fully under our belt. We do have a big Monday Night
• 0:41
  Football game here tonight to talk about, which I do have a
• 0:43
  best bet for you on the side. Have a little bit of information
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  on a total. And I do a prop bet for you.
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  Thanks hopefully to our friends at Rhythm here for this one with
• 0:52
  a great edge on a running back to go over his receiving yards.
• 0:55
  And then I do have a baseball swap for you, one Major League
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  Baseball play. So a three pack overall that
• 1:00
  we'll talk about on a big Monday after a big weekend.
• 1:03
  Now looking back to the weekend, guys, I kind of diet, you know,
• 1:06
  cut it up into two pieces. One was Saturday.
• 1:09
  Saturday was a good day. Saturday had a great UFC bet
• 1:12
  winner with Sean Brady coming through for the team.
• 1:15
  Remember the incredible, what was it?
• 1:17
  19% bet, 70% money, reverse line move, golf clap Sean Brady now
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  our 12th straight UFC win. You love to see it.
• 1:26
  Also had some good hits. Couldn't get Michigan, they
• 1:28
  really are pathetic in that game against Texas.
• 1:31
  But some big hits with Iowa State in the points, winning
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  outright. Tulane getting some points.
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  Illinois was a late addition for me.
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  Maybe I had Pittsburgh from earlier in the week.
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  So overall pretty good Saturday, but that did not prepare me for
• 1:43
  a terrible NFL Sunday. No way to sugarcoat it, guys.
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  Absolutely brutal. Look at the plays that I had
• 1:49
  written down one in five. Disgusting.
• 1:51
  Only winner there was the Colts. Colts for that incredible
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  contrarian play. Inflated line, getting the plus
• 1:57
  3. Ended up losing by two.
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  But really, a lot of these bets, I don't really regret.
• 2:01
  They just didn't come through for us.
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  And I don't want to overreact too much to a bad opening
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  weekend. Like, for example, Carolina
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  Panthers took the Carolina Panthers +4.
• 2:09
  Carolina Panthers ended up closing at 3 1/2.
• 2:11
  We beat the closing line. They just completely got curb
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  stomped and destroyed and lost by 37 Tennessee Titans.
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  Titans in the points getting 4 sharp line freezer, some reverse
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  line movement. Titans are up 17 to nothing.
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  They blow it loose 24 to 17. Failed to cover the number.
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  The Raiders getting a three juiced up.
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  Even got down close to 2 1/2 at some shops.
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  They end up losing by 12. It gets worse with the
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  commanders. Commanders had a good sharp line
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  freeze and some reverse line movement.
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  They end up losing by 17. The one that really annoyed me
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  though was the Cleveland Browns, because the Browns were a
• 2:46
  blueprint play for us. Sharp reverse line move fade.
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  The trendy dog public was all over Dallas, yet the line went
• 2:53
  to Cleveland. Then you start watching that
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  game. I was excited to hear Tom Brady
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  for the first time. Pretty vanilla.
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  I wasn't too impressed with Brady in general, but Deshaun
• 3:01
  Watson was absolutely terrible. Couldn't do anything
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  offensively, couldn't stop Dallas.
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  They get rolled 33 to 17. So again, these are bets that
• 3:09
  we're matching. Our systems just did not come
• 3:12
  through. So I don't want to overreact too
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  much and throw away the, you know, the baby in the bathwater
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  here. But it's a long season and those
• 3:19
  are. And again, after a great start
• 3:20
  to the year, we're three and on opening night had a win with a
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  prop bet there, one in one in the Brazil game.
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  Felt like, hey, let's let's get this thing rolling.
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  Little bit of a set back here. But it's a long year.
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  We're going to stick with it. We're going to continue to grind
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  and hopefully today we'll turn it around with a big Monday
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  Night Football opportunity. So I also want to mention real
• 3:39
  quick the live stream. We were able to do the live
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  stream yesterday from 11:00 AM Eastern Time to 12.
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  Myself and James Santor, the Rhythm Sunday sweats.
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  Thank you all for tuning in and listening.
• 3:48
  I wish the bets performed a little, a little bit better, but
• 3:51
  we had over 1000 people watching the live stream on Twitter.
• 3:53
  So thank you for tuning in and James and I and the whole crew
• 3:56
  at Rhythm Very, very excited, very happy about the potential
• 4:00
  of doing this every Sunday. So that's our goal every Sunday,
• 4:03
  11:00 AM to noon. You can TuneIn get some prop
• 4:05
  bets, some rhythm system matches, get some late move
• 4:08
  breakdowns there. So hope to see you guys, those
• 4:10
  live streams on Twitter. We're going to do it all year
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  long, 11:00 AM on Sundays. Hope to see you guys there.
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  So after a great Saturday but a terrible Sunday, let's see if we
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  can get back to our winning ways here for tonight.
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  So let's talk about the biggest game of the night.
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  You guys know what it is. We're going to San Francisco
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  where the 49ers are hosting The Jets on Monday Night Football.
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  Last game of the week 1 slight. And this one's interesting for a
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  couple of reasons. Well, first, let's set the
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  stage. Give kind of an overarching, you
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  know, last year to this year, take on each team.
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  Jets, remember, Aaron Rodgers tours Achilles first game of the
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  year. They ended up going 7 and 10,
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  finished third in the AFC East, missed the postseason.
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  Well, with a healthy Rodgers, oddsmakers are expecting a
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  better year this year. For The Jets, their win total is
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  10 1/2. It is just up a little bit to
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  the under at -145. Meanwhile, the Niners, 12:00 and
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  5:00 last year, end up winning their division going to the
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  Super Bowl, losing the Chiefs, luckily because I was on my home
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  as a dog, but they lost 2522 in overtime.
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  However, oddsmakers once again are expecting a good year out of
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  the Niners. Their win total is 11 1/2, tied
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  with the Chiefs for the biggest in the NFL, but it is just up a
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  little bit under at -145 So based on both of those win
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  totals, we're looking at couple good teams here going head to
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  head for tonight. So what is the betting market
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  told us? Well, this game open with the
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  49ers listed as high as a 5 1/2 point home favorite.
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  And we've seen the 49ers now get down to -4 Now why is that
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  important? Because it's not the public
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  hammering The Jets and the line moving toward the popular side.
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  It's the public sticking with the 49ers. 49ers are currently
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  getting almost 2/3 of bets at DraftKings, yet the lines going
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  away from them toward The Jets. This would be a classic reverse
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  line move where the betting line goes away from the popular side
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  toward the unpopular side. Now, I know we had a few
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  yesterday that didn't come through for you, but I wanted to
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  kind of give this, I don't know, comparison like meteorologist,
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  you know, the weatherman, the weather woman, they'll give you
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  the forecast. Maybe they say it, say it's
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  going to rain and it doesn't rain at all.
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  We say what an idiot they were. But here's the thing, they're
• 6:08
  going to get it right more often than not long haul.
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  So if the weatherman or weather woman says it's going to rain
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  today, are you going to say, well, last time you said it was
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  going to rain, it didn't. So therefore, I'm not going to
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  wear a raincoat or pack an umbrella.
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  No, you're still going to do that because again, even though
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  the sharp line moves didn't come through yesterday as much as we
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  wanted to, still long term, we're going to play that system
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  match. So I can already hear on
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  Twitter, well, well, the Panthers were in the same spot
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  yesterday and they got rolled. Hey, you can bet Niners then if
• 6:35
  you want. But to me, I got to stick with
• 6:36
  the model, stick with The Jets here.
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  So I'm going to go with The Jets plus 5 1/2 down to four.
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  Now. I was able to shop around and
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  find Jets at plus 4 1/2. If you can find the hook, I
• 6:46
  highly recommend it at FanDuel. They're all offering Jets right
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  now plus 4 1/2 at -115 Why is that important?
• 6:53
  Well, lose by 4. You want to cover with the hook
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  instead of push. Also, you do have a great teaser
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  play here. If you did have a four and a
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  half. Wanted to take Jets up to 10
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  1/2. That's the long teaser going
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  through 7:00 and 10:00. But anyway, let's stick with The
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  Jets breakdown here. Publix on Niners, Lions going to
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  The Jets. Try to find the four and half if
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  you can with the hook. But The Jets are only getting
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  39% of spread bets, but nearly 50% of spread dollars.
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  So good low bets, higher dollars bet discrepancy.
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  I wanted to mention two. Some shops even touched 3 1/2
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  with this San Francisco number. So maybe there's some buyback on
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  Niners -3 1/2 that brought it back up to four.
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  But still, it's been all one movement, one way movement in
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  favor of The Jets. Now The Jets are matching quite
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  a few systems for me. One is just a classic contrarian
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  and heavily back game primetime game.
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  I know primetime dogs. I think to start the year
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  they're O and three against the spread.
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  I have not seen them bark. To me this is a system match you
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  want to play because primetime dogs historically are 120 and 94
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  against the spread, 56 percent 8% ROI since 2020.
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  But also The Jets would match as a week one dog who missed the
• 7:55
  playoffs the previous year. Want to buy loan those teams 59
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  and 44 against the spread 57 percent 11% ROI since 2016.
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  Week 1 Rd. Dogs 52 and 35 against the
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  spread, 60 percent, 16% ROI since 2016.
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  Then if we dig into the coaching quarterback Aaron Rodgers, 28
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  and 21 against the spread, 57 percent, 11% ROI as a dog.
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  Again, missed all of last year, pretty much getting hurt in the
• 8:23
  opener, but when he's at the Packers, he was getting points.
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  He tended to cover quite a few numbers here.
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  Kyle Shanahan, by the way, coach of the Niners, he's only 16 and
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  21 against the spread, 43% as a home favorite.
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  Also a little nugget here that I was able to pick up for my
• 8:39
  colleague at VS and Zach Cohen. He mentioned this, but Super
• 8:42
  Bowl losers, if you lose the Super Bowl the following opening
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  week of the next season, those teams are just 5 and 19 against
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  the spread, 21% over the last 24 years.
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  That's a good kind of fade opportunity of the Niners.
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  And then also did mention a little bit of interest in the
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  total. Did see it fall 45 down to 43.
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  If you do like the under, I lean under a little bit.
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  Try to get the hook on 43 1/2 under.
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  We have seen primetime unders. They're only one and two to
• 9:09
  start this year, but there are 60% historically and the
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  public's going over in this one. Nearly 2/3 of bets are on the
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  over, yet the total fell. So again, do you want to tease
• 9:19
  up The Jets? Do you want to take the total up
• 9:20
  and then take the under? I'm just going to ride jets with
• 9:23
  the hook, the plus 4 1/2. But these are obviously options
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  available to you. But add it all up here, guys,
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  even though yesterday was not the day we were looking for, you
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  got to stick with it. Forest amongst the trees.
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  There's going to be ups and downs, but this is a classic
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  public San Fran yet line going to The Jets.
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  Lot of system matches. I'm going to take The Jets here.
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  So shop around. I got The Jets at plus 4 1/2.
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  That's what I'm rocking. I got that at FanDuel.
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  Now for a prop bet, hopefully to catch a prop bet for us tonight.
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  Focused on one guy who caught my eye using the Rhythm app.
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  Breece Hall, member of the stud from Iowa State.
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  He's been great in the NFL as long as he's healthy.
• 10:02
  This is one of the most electric running backs in the NFL, and I
• 10:04
  noticed a good angle here to go over 28 1/2 receiving yards.
• 10:09
  This one is notable because on the one hand, the betting market
• 10:13
  is 28 1/2 receiving yards, but Rhythm is predicting 35.5, so
• 10:18
  that would be a what, 7 pretty much 7 yard discrepancy?
• 10:23
  But I also like the fact that Brief Stall has gone over this
• 10:25
  number in eight of his last 12 games.
• 10:27
  If you ever watch The Jets games like little dump offs out of the
• 10:30
  backfield debris hall, he can RIP off a, you know, 30 yard
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  gain. So that's definitely something
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  I'm rooting for tonight. He was second on the team and
• 10:38
  targets last year with 95. Only Garrett Wilson had more.
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  He had 168. And if you remember the Super
• 10:43
  Bowl, San Francisco gave up 48 receiving yards to the running
• 10:47
  backs of the Chiefs, Isaiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon.
• 10:50
  Jamir Gibbs and David Montgomery also had 31 yards out of the
• 10:54
  backfield in the NFC Championship game.
• 10:57
  Then also kind of caveat it with, you know, The Jets are the
• 11:00
  dog here, you know, so are they going to have to play catch up?
• 11:03
  Are they down in this game? Obviously, we all hope they
• 11:05
  cover the number, but kind of a short spread dog back and forth,
• 11:08
  maybe, maybe garbage points or garbage yards late.
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  And we have an opportunity here to go breeze Hall over 28 1/2
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  receiving yards. That's what I'm rocking.
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  Haul over 28 1/2 receiving yards.
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  And again, Rhythm. Our friends at Rhythm are
• 11:21
  predicting a 35.5 receiving yardage output.
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  So I'm a big Jets guy tonight. Jets plus 4 1/2 briefs.
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  Haul over 28 1/2. Now over to Major League
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  Baseball. Wouldn't you know what?
• 11:33
  We're going to stick to a team located in New York.
• 11:36
  Although The Jets, I guess, are jersey in the Meadowlands,
• 11:38
  right? Anyway, one game caught my eye
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  in baseball, Mets in the Toronto Blue Jays.
• 11:43
  I'm going to take a shot here on the Mets, guys.
• 11:45
  Mets are on the road. They open this game around a -,
• 11:49
  115 road favorite. Now they're all the way up to
• 11:51
  -130 So right off the bat, I saw good 15 cents steam move in
• 11:55
  favor of the Mets. Now let's look at the pitching
• 11:57
  match up Mets at the Jays tonight.
• 11:59
  The Mets are throwing Tyler Miguel.
• 12:01
  He's three and five with a 4.95 ERA.
• 12:04
  He'll be opposed by Burr. Who's Owen?
• 12:07
  One with a 4.44 ERA and it looks like he's the opener.
• 12:10
  This guy's usually pitching out of the pen, but the first thing,
• 12:13
  as I mentioned is a line move to the Mets, 15 cent move -115 up
• 12:17
  to -130 Mets are getting around 70% of bets in dollars, but
• 12:21
  there's a lot of system matches on the Mets here.
• 12:23
  One would be an interleague favorite.
• 12:25
  So the lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
• 12:27
  better team hopefully to to get a win here for us, but also
• 12:32
  other good system matches here. Rd. favorites in general in
• 12:35
  baseball this year are 438 and three 3057% around a 1% ROI.
• 12:41
  Also Fate Rd. favored off a loss with match with the Mets.
• 12:43
  They I think they're nine and one last 10 games where they
• 12:46
  lost yesterday. But Rd. favorites with steam
• 12:48
  $0.10 or more. This one of my favorite system
• 12:50
  matches. Rd. favorites getting $0.10 of
• 12:52
  steam or more are 72 and 41 this year, 64 percent, 6% ROI.
• 12:59
  Mets are 38 and 31 on the road. They've been good on the road.
• 13:02
  Toronto is just 34 and 35 at home.
• 13:05
  I'm going to bank on the offense of the Mets hopefully coming to
• 13:07
  play tonight. They're hitting 248 on the year.
• 13:10
  They've hit 182 homers, scored 681 runs versus Toronto who has,
• 13:16
  who was hitting 242 with 148 homers, 611 runs scored.
• 13:21
  Also last 10. As I mentioned, Mets playing
• 13:24
  great ball baseball. Right now they're nine and one.
• 13:27
  Their last 10, they're hitting 241 with a 1.78 ERA.
• 13:30
  Their pitching has been great. Toronto 3:00 and 7:00 last 10
• 13:33
  hitting 264 with a 310 ERA. Also late in the year,
• 13:38
  motivation I think is important to at least be aware of.
• 13:40
  The Mets right now are tied with the Braves for the last wild
• 13:44
  card spot, excuse me, and the National League.
• 13:46
  So got to continue to play well and earn a postseason berth.
• 13:50
  Toronto is way out of it. So really not much to fight for
• 13:52
  here. So once once I saw this big
• 13:55
  steam with some good system matches, better offense, playing
• 13:58
  good ball as of late, I said, hey, let's take a shot on the
• 14:00
  Mets tonight. So I'm going New York Mets, the
• 14:03
  Mets meet, let's meet the Mets at -130.
• 14:08
  So that about does it for a Monday edition of the All
• 14:10
  Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 14:14
  This is the part of the pod, though, where I give you some
• 14:16
  things, few things to chew on as we finish up and get ready for a
• 14:20
  big night of sweats. Number one is if you enjoy this
• 14:23
  pod and you want to help me grow the pod, gain more eyeballs or
• 14:27
  ears listening to the pod on a daily basis.
• 14:29
  Well, can you do me one big favor?
• 14:31
  Could you please give this podcast a five star review?
• 14:35
  It'll take you 5 seconds, probably less.
• 14:37
  Click the five stars. If there's an option to leave
• 14:39
  some good, you know, comments or reviews.
• 14:41
  If you want to hit the follow button so you get alerted as
• 14:43
  soon as it drops. I would very much appreciate
• 14:45
  that guys. But again, A5 star review would
• 14:47
  go a long way to help us to continue to rise up the charts.
• 14:51
  Secondly, if you enjoy this style of betting, obviously the
• 14:54
  results were not there yesterday in the NFL.
• 14:57
  It was a bit disappointing overall, we continue to grind.
• 14:59
  That's that's betting. You go, you go one and five with
• 15:02
  your plays, five and one. Either way, you got to stick
• 15:04
  with it and never get too high or too low.
• 15:06
  But if this style of betting in terms of analyzing the data in
• 15:10
  the market, how lines open, how and why they move, how to read
• 15:13
  line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to go
• 15:15
  contrarian, how to place a bet in person or online, if that
• 15:18
  appeals to you, that style of betting, well, go buy my book.
• 15:21
  I wrote a book. It's the sharp contrarian
• 15:23
  blueprint. It's called the everything guide
• 15:25
  to sports betting. Pick one up for for you or a
• 15:28
  friend and it'll kind of just, you know, have something in your
• 15:30
  hands that you can hold and reference and write in the
• 15:32
  margins. And when you show up at the
• 15:34
  sports book and bring my book to the book, pun intended, I guess,
• 15:38
  or not, I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer or ginger
• 15:41
  ale. But but if you want to buy one
• 15:43
  for you or a buddy, it'll mean a lot to me.
• 15:45
  Guys, I really appreciate that. Of course, have you signed up
• 15:49
  for Rhythm and Juice Reel, my two favorite apps when it comes
• 15:52
  to betting on sports because both are data-driven.
• 15:55
  It's all about the the numbers you know, the betting with your
• 15:58
  head and not your heart. And with Rhythm doing a great
• 16:01
  job with their player props as well as their game predictions.
• 16:05
  If you haven't done it yet, Rhythm is a great app to have
• 16:08
  just to give you more confidence to give you more opportunities
• 16:10
  here to take advantage of hopefully from a data-driven
• 16:13
  perspective. But if you haven't done it yet,
• 16:16
  go sign up for a 7 day free trial of Rhythm by clicking that
• 16:19
  custom link located in the bio description of this podcast.
• 16:22
  And then Juice Reel. Juice Reel does a fantastic job
• 16:25
  with their Robo Jackson best bet picks.
• 16:28
  Actually just popped it up and wouldn't you know it, Robo is on
• 16:31
  the Mets today and on The Jets plus the points.
• 16:34
  So love to see some overlap with Robo Jackson, but whether you
• 16:38
  want to tail those best bets each day, whether you want to
• 16:41
  look at arbitrage opportunities where where you want to look at
• 16:45
  sharp mush situations, syncing up your sports books to your app
• 16:49
  with whatever the case may be, Juice Real helps me win.
• 16:51
  It'll help you win. So go sign up for juice real and
• 16:54
  rhythm using those custom links located in the bio description
• 16:57
  of this podcast. So at about dozen everybody
• 17:00
  again, it was a weekend of highs with UFC and you know, Iowa
• 17:04
  State coming back, a weekend of lows yesterday.
• 17:07
  And of course, when you know my Patriots knockout, everyone's in
• 17:10
  survivor. So I didn't see that one coming,
• 17:13
  but it's going to be a long year.
• 17:14
  Again, whether we had a great NFL Sunday or a terrible one,
• 17:17
  it's a long season. Don't get too high or too low.
• 17:20
  We have a lot of money making opportunities throughout the
• 17:22
  year. With that being said, whether I
• 17:24
  see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
• 17:27
  Rhode Island in the Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods or
• 17:29
  Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain
• 17:32
  Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the
• 17:35
  woods in Massachusetts, they're out in the desert where the true
• 17:38
  grinders get down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
• 17:40
  runners with lowest juice possible is found at the South
• 17:43
  Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
• 17:44
  plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
• 17:46
  When you cash a big ticket, whoever it may be, you're going
• 17:49
  to walk up to me. And I guess the highlight of the
• 17:51
  weekend was extending our UFC winning streak to 12 straight
• 17:55
  biting. Show me a Sean Brady ticket
• 17:58
  winning a huge fight for us in the Octagon.
• 18:00
  Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
• 18:02
  you. We're going to post about the
• 18:03
  book Sweat Sharp Contrarian Plays all night long so wish you
• 18:07
  the best luck everyone. Have a fantastic Monday and as
• 18:10
  always, stay sharp, stay contrary and bet against the
• 18:12
  public. Place yourself on the side of
• 18:14
  the house. Always Be with the smart money,
• 18:16
  never against it. Will smart money win every time?
• 18:18
  No, it lost on Panthers, Titans, Raiders, Commanders, Browns.
• 18:21
  It was not a good day yesterday, but don't lose sight of the
• 18:24
  marathon instead of the Sprint. We can consistently long term
• 18:29
  bet with our head and not our heart.
• 18:30
  Against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
• 18:34
  avoid parlays, get that closing line value.
• 18:36
  If we can do that long term, we're going to be successful
• 18:38
  sports bettors. So let's go Jets, let's go
• 18:41
  Breece Hall, let's go Mets, let's try to go 2 and one and
• 18:43
  eke out a winning night here, guys.
• 18:45
  I wish you the best of luck and we'll be back at it tomorrow for
• 18:48
  episode 116 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
• 18:53
  powered by Rhythm. Have a great night everybody,
• 18:55
  good luck.