Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / 9-Team Parlay: Give Us Andrew Luck and Matty Ice!

Transcript

9-Team Parlay: Give Us Andrew Luck and Matty Ice! · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorite. So I'm Chad Millman of the
0:05
Speaker 1: Action Network. This is the Favorite podcast, The Parlay Show.
0:11
Speaker 1: I am joined by Jeff Schwartz eight years in the
0:14
Speaker 1: National Football League as an offensive lineman and Paul Laduca
0:18
Speaker 1: ten years in Major League Baseball, four time All Star catcher,
0:22
Speaker 1: both Action Network analysts. Two things that people should know
0:28
Speaker 1: that we did before we even started. One, Laduca pointed
0:32
Speaker 1: out that like everyone should have bet the first five
0:34
Speaker 1: in the last baseball game of the season last year
0:37
Speaker 1: because everybody just wants to go home. Thanks for that
0:39
Speaker 1: advice in advance, Paul. Second, right before we started recording,
0:44
Speaker 1: this is the last thing, Luduca said, I've got the
0:47
Speaker 1: Phil Dawson blues. I'm done with both of you guys. Well,
0:55
Speaker 1: so many different things. We can bring up, so many
0:57
Speaker 1: different things, and I don't want to make the ID
1:00
Speaker 1: it's too early. I'm I'm upset you got Stone Lucky yesterday.
1:07
Speaker 1: Million Monster. You're still the million Monster because you're the
1:10
Speaker 1: million Monster because you called Oakland and got the change
1:17
Speaker 1: in the spot. I mean it is. I will tell you.
1:22
Speaker 1: Let me tell you a true story. It wasn't It
1:24
Speaker 1: was an epic, epic day. I had six bets. Uh,
1:28
Speaker 1: I went four into Three of those games went to overtime.
1:32
Speaker 1: One of those I won on a last second kick.
1:35
Speaker 1: One of them. The three overtime games were flat out
1:39
Speaker 1: miracles the Titans, like multiple fourth downs where they went
1:43
Speaker 1: for it and like then they decided to go for
1:45
Speaker 1: the win instead of the tie and overtime. The fact
1:49
Speaker 1: that Colts did anything to get that game even close.
1:52
Speaker 1: I didn't deserve it. I couldn't even get upset at
1:54
Speaker 1: that game because I didn't deserve to be in that game.
1:56
Speaker 1: That that change of the spot in the Browns game
2:00
Speaker 1: from first down to fourth down, and then them coming
2:02
Speaker 1: back with nine seconds the Raiders and tying it with
2:05
Speaker 1: the two point conversion um, and the number of times
2:08
Speaker 1: they could have blown it in overtime, that was like
2:11
Speaker 1: dinner time in my house. And uh, the whole family
2:15
Speaker 1: was involved. Here's why, because not only was that like
2:17
Speaker 1: a game that I needed just for my day, but
2:21
Speaker 1: you know, I do these Sports center hits on Sunday mornings,
2:24
Speaker 1: and I choose three games, and I had made a
2:28
Speaker 1: last second decision to take the Titans Eagles game out
2:31
Speaker 1: and put the um and put the Browns Raiders game in,
2:37
Speaker 1: and then they had cut the Cardinals Seahawks game, and
2:42
Speaker 1: so I had two games that I won taken out
2:46
Speaker 1: and one game that looked like I was gonna lose
2:47
Speaker 1: put in. So I was gonna go one and two
2:49
Speaker 1: on the day and I was gonna feel like a jerk.
2:51
Speaker 1: Instead I went to and one and I feel fantastic.
2:54
Speaker 1: Taken every day. Baby over. Wait wait wait wait wait,
2:57
Speaker 1: Schwarts quit talking because for the podcast last week, I'm
3:02
Speaker 1: sitting there like scrambling with all my notes. I'm gonna
3:04
Speaker 1: take New England. I'm gonna I'm gonna challenge that anyway. Meanwhile,
3:11
Speaker 1: both of you guys all over New England yesterday. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
3:17
Speaker 1: you're gonna challenge me. You're gonna challenge me last week
3:20
Speaker 1: when I said New England, I have a bone to
3:23
Speaker 1: pick with Chad, by the way, so I should just
3:26
Speaker 1: go away because this is because Chad was the one
3:29
Speaker 1: who challenged you first on that one, and I haven't
3:31
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get. I'm getting. I'm also piling on chat
3:33
Speaker 1: as well. That's why this is the point of my
3:35
Speaker 1: of my story. Can I continue? Paul? Okay, okay, I
3:38
Speaker 1: know you're you're so angry today. I love it. I
3:40
Speaker 1: love fired up. So last week I said I wanted
3:44
Speaker 1: Denver and they still played tonight. So now we've we've
3:47
Speaker 1: lost our parlay, but Denver still played tonight. I said
3:49
Speaker 1: I want Denver plus the points, and Chad said it
3:51
Speaker 1: was an awful pick, and he disagreed highly with that pick.
3:55
Speaker 1: So I tune into the podcast on Wednesday, the Favorites
3:59
Speaker 1: Pod with Bookmaker to the World, and Chad goes on
4:03
Speaker 1: there and says, I love Denver plus four points. Then
4:07
Speaker 1: he goes on to his Friday podcast with black Jack Fletcher,
4:10
Speaker 1: the Super Contest Podcast and says, I love Denver as well.
4:13
Speaker 1: How do you change your mind in such a short
4:15
Speaker 1: period of time. The world was pretty fast, Jeff, I
4:21
Speaker 1: don't know what else to tell you, Like I mean
4:24
Speaker 1: New Orleans. You guys know I am not reliable in
4:28
Speaker 1: this way. I cannot be beholden to what I say
4:31
Speaker 1: on Monday morning, on Wednesday and on Friday and things
4:34
Speaker 1: sort of. In the betting world, your opinions evolve over time,
4:39
Speaker 1: and I love to pick within within forty eight hours.
4:45
Speaker 1: I mean you literally last week you said New Orleans
4:51
Speaker 1: and then you're like you went to the Giants again,
4:55
Speaker 1: and then I came back and said I want New
4:57
Speaker 1: Orleans and then you got all over me and said
5:00
Speaker 1: I just said, and then you went on Sports Center
5:04
Speaker 1: and picked the Giants and it turned out I was wrong,
5:08
Speaker 1: So I really were initially I am, so you're especially right.
5:16
Speaker 1: And for people who don't know, here's the point of
5:17
Speaker 1: our podcast. On Monday mornings, me and Jeff and Polly,
5:22
Speaker 1: we're gonna record a podcast in which we're gonna make
5:24
Speaker 1: nine picks twenty parlay to win. I think it's no
5:29
Speaker 1: it's sixty dollar parlay to win twenty dollars and we
5:33
Speaker 1: each have to make three picks. Last week, Uh, I
5:38
Speaker 1: was oh one and two in my picks. Um, PAULI
5:43
Speaker 1: did a great job. He got the Vikings at plus
5:45
Speaker 1: seven and a half, but he missed his other two.
5:48
Speaker 1: And Jeff, you went one on one with the Broncos
5:51
Speaker 1: still to go. Um, I lost the Colt and pushed
5:54
Speaker 1: the Raiders push the Cardinals. Jeff, Uh, we lost b
5:57
Speaker 1: y U. That was the one college game I bet
5:59
Speaker 1: right way we lost that together. We don't know about
6:02
Speaker 1: the Broncos yet. You know you won the Lions game, Polly.
6:06
Speaker 1: Let's see what did you do? You lost? Why? I myself?
6:13
Speaker 1: You lost East Carolina? I got beat by myself, Blake
6:16
Speaker 1: larusa five ft ten walk on quarterback. Where Old Dominion
6:21
Speaker 1: beat me as East Carolina. Well, they won the game,
6:27
Speaker 1: they didn't cover. It was like Nightmari's Day outplayed him
6:31
Speaker 1: by like three yards and couldn't cover. I don't want
6:34
Speaker 1: to talk about it. It put me on tilt. I
6:36
Speaker 1: was throwing stuff around at work. Um East Carolina Pirates. Literally,
6:42
Speaker 1: I will never wear any kind of PA any time. Jeff,
6:49
Speaker 1: You're over doing on Amazon right now, and I'm sending
6:54
Speaker 1: Paul Duco like in East Carolina Pirates wardrobe like a
6:59
Speaker 1: big fat head of like their quarter of the current
7:01
Speaker 1: quarterback to put on his wallet work. I love the
7:03
Speaker 1: text that we got from Paul. So we we rased
7:05
Speaker 1: each other during the day during the week about our picks.
7:07
Speaker 1: And I was like, you know, I was like, go Pirates,
7:09
Speaker 1: and Paul said, I just threw my iPad at work.
7:14
Speaker 1: Believe it too. I believe totally did. They had five
7:17
Speaker 1: hundred yards of total offense Old Dominion had. It was
7:21
Speaker 1: like it was unbelievable. They had three of the yard
7:26
Speaker 1: three plays of over forty yards get called back. But
7:28
Speaker 1: here's the whole thing is Old Dominion sacked the quarterback
7:33
Speaker 1: at the East Carolina quarterback nine times. I mean the
7:36
Speaker 1: guy was running for his life. I will give Old
7:38
Speaker 1: Dominion front credit. The guy was running for his life
7:40
Speaker 1: for East Carolina. We have now spent more time talking
7:43
Speaker 1: in detail about the Old Dominion game then we did
7:49
Speaker 1: the Seahawks card Larusa. Let's get I want to get
7:52
Speaker 1: to our probably, But Jeff, there's one thing that happened
7:53
Speaker 1: on the field other day that I thought was incredibly fascinating.
7:57
Speaker 1: And I feel like because you where you are an
8:00
Speaker 1: NFL veteran player. Earl Thomas breaks his leg and he's
8:05
Speaker 1: carted off the field. There have been all these uh
8:09
Speaker 1: been all this controversy about Earl Thomas wanting to get traded,
8:14
Speaker 1: wanting more money, holding out, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. He's being
8:17
Speaker 1: carted off the field. He gives the Seahawks sideline the finger.
8:23
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll says, it's a big stadium. I don't know
8:25
Speaker 1: where he was directing. It explained to me, like from
8:31
Speaker 1: from a player perspective, what's going on there? I mean,
8:35
Speaker 1: I think we all know what's going on. How did
8:37
Speaker 1: the Seahawks players react to that? Interesting? So Bobby Wagner
8:40
Speaker 1: came out and supported him. But I think a lot
8:42
Speaker 1: of players probably feel, like, you know, Earl Thomas as
8:45
Speaker 1: a leader in that locker room, and they probably felt
8:48
Speaker 1: the finger was probably pointed maybe at them too, Like,
8:51
Speaker 1: I don't know how you distinguished who the finger was
8:53
Speaker 1: pointed at. It was it just that Pete Carroll and
8:55
Speaker 1: John Schneider. It was sorry, Pete Carroll, it wasn't just
8:58
Speaker 1: in a big stadium. It was pointed directly at you
8:59
Speaker 1: and John Schneider. Um. And here's the deal about about
9:03
Speaker 1: guys getting paid. We all root for players to get paid, right,
9:06
Speaker 1: no one does. No one roots for someone to not
9:08
Speaker 1: get their their their money. But Earl Thomas is under
9:11
Speaker 1: contract I believe eight point five million dollars this year.
9:13
Speaker 1: Him is it free agency? He will hit fre agency
9:16
Speaker 1: next year. But when you when you show up to
9:18
Speaker 1: the facility after your holdout, then you have to be
9:20
Speaker 1: all in. And he's not quite all in. Remember two
9:22
Speaker 1: weeks ago before the Cowboys game, he just showed up
9:25
Speaker 1: and decided to not do anything at practice that day.
9:28
Speaker 1: Just I'm not like I'm protesting in the facility. Um
9:31
Speaker 1: he last year he went into Cowboys locker room and
9:34
Speaker 1: asked to be traded to the Cowboys. I had a
9:36
Speaker 1: buddy who was there, not a player, someone who's in
9:38
Speaker 1: the front office there who told me that that's exactly
9:40
Speaker 1: what happened. UM, and that stuff I think wears on
9:45
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. And and in no manner, and no did
9:47
Speaker 1: they want to trade him, because that's giving in to
9:49
Speaker 1: Earl Thomas. UM. And I don't think anyone was doing
9:53
Speaker 1: trade for him anyways. And look, it's unfortunate he got hurt.
9:55
Speaker 1: He's still gonna make his money this year, he'll be
9:57
Speaker 1: a free agent, maybe he'll go somewhere, maybe he won't
9:59
Speaker 1: next year. UM, but I gotta think there's some players
10:02
Speaker 1: in that locker room that did not appreciate, um, Earl
10:05
Speaker 1: Thomas kind of not buying in all year. I understand
10:08
Speaker 1: he's upset. He got hurt. I get it. Trust me,
10:09
Speaker 1: I've been hurt multiple times. I get the feeling. I
10:11
Speaker 1: felt like at times in my career teams kind of
10:13
Speaker 1: did me wrong with injuries. UM, but not everyone that
10:16
Speaker 1: locker room is gonna be happy with that you played
10:19
Speaker 1: professional sports. At a high level even though you didn't
10:22
Speaker 1: play in the NFL. Do you have experiences like that
10:26
Speaker 1: that you can draw upon, that you can think back
10:28
Speaker 1: on with with other players. Well, Jeff makes a good
10:31
Speaker 1: point at the end. Sometimes it can be good ridden
10:34
Speaker 1: especially with guys that are that are cancers inside the clubhouse.
10:38
Speaker 1: Doesn't matter how good you are. You know, you play
10:40
Speaker 1: with some guys that are just dynamic and you have
10:42
Speaker 1: to deal with them even though they can be cancers
10:44
Speaker 1: in the clubhouse. But I mean, is he basically flipping
10:48
Speaker 1: off the sideline saying I'm still gonna get my money
10:50
Speaker 1: and I'm out for the year. I think he's upset
10:53
Speaker 1: that he's thinking his extension. But he didn't get this
10:55
Speaker 1: and he didn't And Jeff is completely right. We're all
10:58
Speaker 1: for everybody getting their money. Like um, I've never understood
11:04
Speaker 1: that when it comes to the players this when other
11:06
Speaker 1: guys don't support other guys like what what man like
11:09
Speaker 1: name one human being in the United States. I hate
11:13
Speaker 1: when fans or other people say, oh, this guy is
11:17
Speaker 1: not worth the money. He signed a ridiculous contract. Okay,
11:21
Speaker 1: put the contract in front of you with a nice
11:23
Speaker 1: little big pen, and you tell me you don't sign
11:25
Speaker 1: that contract if it's you, So keep your mouth shut.
11:28
Speaker 1: You know. Um, I think that when you show up,
11:32
Speaker 1: you should be all in. And that's the concerning part
11:36
Speaker 1: to me is he didn't see him all in. Um,
11:38
Speaker 1: and that if I was a teammate of of this
11:40
Speaker 1: is why the Steelers players, by the way, what leave
11:42
Speaker 1: and bet will show up is because he can't negotiate
11:44
Speaker 1: anything better at this at this point and they want
11:46
Speaker 1: to win. They want to win football games because and
11:49
Speaker 1: Ramote Foster finally came out and said, this is that
11:51
Speaker 1: if if we win super Bowls, we get paid. Everyone
11:55
Speaker 1: gets paid more when you win a super Bowl because
11:56
Speaker 1: your your team is happy. Your team wants to pay
12:00
Speaker 1: their their core. They want to keep guys there. And
12:02
Speaker 1: that's why players want their their buddies to show up
12:05
Speaker 1: for Week one. You you've you've done your hold out,
12:07
Speaker 1: you've proven your point. Um, you lost, you lost your holdout.
12:11
Speaker 1: Essentially you don't have your leverage. Uh so come in
12:14
Speaker 1: be part of the team and uh and buy in.
12:18
Speaker 1: And if I was a team at Earl Thomas, you're
12:20
Speaker 1: the flipping off wouldn't bother me. But the idea of
12:22
Speaker 1: coming to practice and then just deciding I'm not practicing
12:25
Speaker 1: that would that would that would frustrate me. You know.
12:28
Speaker 1: The thing the other part about this is is like,
12:31
Speaker 1: you know what sucks about sports is when your guy,
12:34
Speaker 1: your buddies got traded and like and I get that,
12:37
Speaker 1: Like I used to hate that, Like you know you
12:38
Speaker 1: used to you make you have friends with guys in
12:40
Speaker 1: double A, triple A. You get to the big leagues
12:42
Speaker 1: and they get traded. Um, guys take it personal. Now
12:46
Speaker 1: it's like we don't have this guy, we don't have
12:48
Speaker 1: this guy, or you don't you don't want to sign
12:50
Speaker 1: this guy. You know, it's a it's called a business
12:53
Speaker 1: for a reason. Just because they don't want to sign
12:55
Speaker 1: you don't want to sign it, and they take it personally.
12:57
Speaker 1: They're flipping guys off, Like you gotta have to be
13:00
Speaker 1: able to deal with We traded again. Tommy Losorda was
13:03
Speaker 1: the GM for the Dodgers for a year. He traded
13:05
Speaker 1: Paul Knurko and Pedro Martinez. He was a great GM.
13:09
Speaker 1: I mean, like a lot of people forget about that.
13:11
Speaker 1: Like sometimes you gotta deal with stuff like that and
13:13
Speaker 1: just deal with it like a man, take your money
13:15
Speaker 1: and play and be a mentor for the other guys.
13:18
Speaker 1: I mean, I've never understood that speaking of dealing with
13:21
Speaker 1: it like a man taking your money and playing. Boys
13:27
Speaker 1: tend to go all in. Let's do it, let's go.
13:29
Speaker 1: Can we win some games? Please, Let's win some money.
13:37
Speaker 1: Jeff Schwartz, make our first pick the Parlay Show. This
13:42
Speaker 1: is the road to twenty thousand dollars. You know, look
13:48
Speaker 1: at the NFL schedule. I want to start there like
13:49
Speaker 1: there's nothing that that really uh, it's a very tough slate.
13:55
Speaker 1: So there's a couple of directions I have. I have
13:57
Speaker 1: maybe a couple of picks. I'm sure I might get
13:59
Speaker 1: veto and some of these, and then I have some
14:00
Speaker 1: backup pick to go. Um. I've watched every snap of
14:04
Speaker 1: the Giants of the Giants games this year, they have
14:06
Speaker 1: not football team. Already know if you're if you're picking
14:10
Speaker 1: the Giants, I am a Carolina at home this week.
14:15
Speaker 1: I don't even need an explanation six the team against
14:18
Speaker 1: the Giants. I am automatically picking six and a half.
14:21
Speaker 1: The Giants have not scored more than thirty points since
14:24
Speaker 1: since I was since yeah be since I was there,
14:28
Speaker 1: they have not scored more than twenty points a game. Um,
14:31
Speaker 1: the Panthers at home are good. They can run the football,
14:35
Speaker 1: they consult away a game. Uh, they're off of buy two,
14:38
Speaker 1: so they'll they'll have some uh some cool new wrinkles
14:41
Speaker 1: to put it in against the Giants. And the Giants
14:42
Speaker 1: just on the road. Eli Manning does not look good. Um,
14:46
Speaker 1: they're they're not. They're not gonna come close in this game.
14:48
Speaker 1: They're gonna lose by fourteen and seventeen points. It's gonna
14:51
Speaker 1: be an ugly game. The Panthers are physically better than
14:53
Speaker 1: the Giants almost every position. Um, and there's only so
14:57
Speaker 1: much a defense can do before they kind of just
14:59
Speaker 1: like give up. And the Giants defense yesterday, Uh the
15:02
Speaker 1: Saints winning the red zone five times their first five trips,
15:05
Speaker 1: allowed four field goals and a touchdown. Like, that's a
15:07
Speaker 1: great job by the Giants defense. Eventually you just break,
15:10
Speaker 1: and eventually the Giants broke yesterday. I think the Panthers
15:12
Speaker 1: win this game fairly easily. Uh that six and a
15:15
Speaker 1: half right now. I like the Panthers. That might be
15:17
Speaker 1: the quote of the day. They haven't scored a thirty
15:19
Speaker 1: points since I played there in two thousand fifteen. Yeah,
15:24
Speaker 1: they haven't. It's unreal. I love that, Like, you know
15:28
Speaker 1: how hard that is. Like there are games when teams
15:30
Speaker 1: score a special teams and a defensive touchdown that's obviously
15:33
Speaker 1: fourteen points. Then you offense just has to get the thirty.
15:35
Speaker 1: I mean, there are games when when teams just salt
15:38
Speaker 1: away the game at the very end, and like yesterday,
15:41
Speaker 1: the Saints just scored touchdown at the very end. As
15:43
Speaker 1: their know, the Jaguars scored a late, a late touchdown
15:46
Speaker 1: to go over thirty points yesterday, and the Giants have
15:48
Speaker 1: not done it. They have not. That's that's they went
15:51
Speaker 1: to the playoffs. There were eleven and five and sixteen
15:52
Speaker 1: without scoring thirty points. Look, the Giants can't open and
15:57
Speaker 1: they can't close. They're like the worst show on Broadway.
16:01
Speaker 1: Topical reference, Curtains. We got you guys on this podcast
16:06
Speaker 1: who lived in New York. We should all appreciate a
16:09
Speaker 1: Broadway reference. Wicked. Wicked still gets me. We can still
16:19
Speaker 1: just beat Schwards for the best line of the podcast.
16:23
Speaker 1: We're still we're still very very early in the podcast.
16:25
Speaker 1: It's still early. If we're gonna rank lines right now,
16:28
Speaker 1: Wicked Still gets Me is number one. They haven't scored
16:31
Speaker 1: thirty points since I played for them in two thousand fifties.
16:34
Speaker 1: Number two, uh POULI give me a pick, all right?
16:39
Speaker 1: The college players I had this week, we're just unbelievable.
16:44
Speaker 1: Not well, um, but I love one. I love a
16:48
Speaker 1: team this week. And it's a little bit bouncing off Schwartzy,
16:51
Speaker 1: a little bit of a team off of bye week.
16:53
Speaker 1: I like. I like Illinois. There they're laying two and
16:56
Speaker 1: a half at Rutgers. UM. Illinois actually is thirty five
17:02
Speaker 1: in the nation in running. They've actually ran. They actually
17:05
Speaker 1: ran for two hundred and fifty yards against Penn State
17:09
Speaker 1: that game. I watched the second half of that game.
17:11
Speaker 1: It got out of hand. We know how good Penn
17:13
Speaker 1: State is. They actually should have been at Ohio State yesterday.
17:16
Speaker 1: Confusing call at the end of that game. UM, and
17:19
Speaker 1: they let Ohio State back in that game. A couple
17:22
Speaker 1: tough calls. But you know, Illinois got blown out in
17:24
Speaker 1: the second half of that game. But Rutgers is got awful.
17:28
Speaker 1: Their hundred and twenty in the nation against the run.
17:32
Speaker 1: They gave a five hundred or four nine four yards
17:36
Speaker 1: to Kansas. Who's awful. I'm running the football in Illinois,
17:40
Speaker 1: coming off of by a young lovey Smith team. Um.
17:44
Speaker 1: And you know, besides getting blown out against Penn State
17:48
Speaker 1: for being a young team, they were going in the
17:49
Speaker 1: right direction and they are going in the right direction.
17:52
Speaker 1: And I think Rutgers is getting um on the over
17:55
Speaker 1: sold in this game because they covered. They were seventeen
17:58
Speaker 1: point dog against Indiana. Indiana is that I've been a
18:01
Speaker 1: seventeen point favorite in football ever. So I think Illinois
18:06
Speaker 1: is a great play and I think they're gonna run
18:07
Speaker 1: for over four hundred or five yards. Records. Football is
18:10
Speaker 1: just dead. This is really interesting. There's nothing better than
18:15
Speaker 1: wake you up early on a Monday morning doing this
18:18
Speaker 1: podcast and hearing Paul breakdown the twelve noon Big ten
18:22
Speaker 1: kickoff like the most boring game of the entire weekend
18:26
Speaker 1: uh in college football slate, the one that no one's watching,
18:29
Speaker 1: the one that no one will bet on. And I
18:31
Speaker 1: can't Archie. I mean Rutgers is bad, I don't. I
18:34
Speaker 1: just they're really bad at football. The one thing that
18:36
Speaker 1: worries me about this game a little bit is Illinois
18:38
Speaker 1: is is very bad on defense yards per play because
18:43
Speaker 1: of last week that yes, um, I kind of white
18:49
Speaker 1: curds is bad. I don't know why you bet four
18:51
Speaker 1: Rutgers at any point. So here's the problem. Colin Wilson,
18:56
Speaker 1: it's pretty smart about college football. In the column he
19:00
Speaker 1: wrote for Sunday Morning projecting the week, six point spreads
19:07
Speaker 1: had Rutgers as a two and a half point favorite
19:11
Speaker 1: in this game. So in this game, Illinois is a
19:15
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite. It's five point difference.
19:18
Speaker 1: So if we go with this game, we are going
19:21
Speaker 1: against what Colin Wilson says we should do. Are we
19:26
Speaker 1: comfortable with that? Has he put his money down? Is
19:30
Speaker 1: it worth dollars to us? On the Paul has been
19:35
Speaker 1: accurate on these college games until last week. So I
19:42
Speaker 1: I love the bye I love the bye week, and
19:44
Speaker 1: and did to me? Illinois has played some better teams. Well,
19:48
Speaker 1: I know rucords where they played Ohio Stater earlier in
19:51
Speaker 1: the year in the last fifty three, but I mean
19:53
Speaker 1: they are so point to yard to carry Rutgers is
19:58
Speaker 1: three point eight. I mean everything kind of Ruckers is
20:02
Speaker 1: really bad. And third down, he does not put any
20:07
Speaker 1: money down in this game. So let's do it. Let's
20:09
Speaker 1: do it. I'm in We're all together? Do we all agree? Yes?
20:17
Speaker 1: Because I agree I feel like Jeff if Paul's going
20:21
Speaker 1: to come in strong on a Monday morning at eight
20:23
Speaker 1: o'clock and have analyzed the University of Illinois and Rutgers. Uh,
20:27
Speaker 1: he deserves credit for that. She definitely does you pretty astonishing.
20:32
Speaker 1: He loves college football. He loves it. Okay, here's what
20:39
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do. I am gonna go with the Washington
20:48
Speaker 1: Redskins as seven point underdogs next week. So I need
21:00
Speaker 1: to explain myself. They're playing at New Orleans. No, I'm
21:05
Speaker 1: I saw this come through the email this morning, and
21:07
Speaker 1: I bet it right away? You did? Should I bet? Well?
21:15
Speaker 1: I guess my feeling is that, Um, I think the
21:18
Speaker 1: Saints continue to be overvalued in the market. And while
21:20
Speaker 1: their defense played great yesterday, Alex mean, I think it's
21:24
Speaker 1: probably a better quarterback than Eli Manning right now, Um,
21:29
Speaker 1: the Redskins defense is still really good. And so you're
21:32
Speaker 1: telling me that I can get a team off of
21:34
Speaker 1: by uh having come off a huge upset win against
21:39
Speaker 1: the Packers with a quarterback who I think can move
21:42
Speaker 1: the ball and is smarter, and we'll be able to
21:45
Speaker 1: pick a part of defense that I think is not
21:47
Speaker 1: very good. Um. As a pretty big underdog. I'm going
21:52
Speaker 1: to do it. So let's let's value. Let's look at
21:56
Speaker 1: New Orleans eight points to you know, obviously, opening week
22:00
Speaker 1: against Tampa, they should have lost to Cleveland. Atlanta's defense
22:05
Speaker 1: is right now, just completely banged up in the secondary. UM,
22:09
Speaker 1: but that was part of that game, right, Jeff. I
22:12
Speaker 1: mean they got banged up in that game and then
22:14
Speaker 1: they beat a bad Giant team. So is the jury
22:17
Speaker 1: still out? You think Jad Chad on them and Jeff
22:20
Speaker 1: on the jury is still out of them. They they
22:22
Speaker 1: play better as the season goes along. Remember the last previously,
22:26
Speaker 1: this year, the last four years they started and two
22:28
Speaker 1: this year they almost started owing two with the loss
22:29
Speaker 1: of the Browns. I just think that they're not playing
22:32
Speaker 1: as crisp as they did last year. They get mark
22:33
Speaker 1: ingram back, I don't think that it's gonna help too much. Defensively,
22:36
Speaker 1: they haven't been as good as we thought they'd be.
22:39
Speaker 1: And here's the thing, Washington with Alex Smith. All Oxmith
22:42
Speaker 1: doesn't marking season has win games. We know that, UM,
22:45
Speaker 1: their defense is a little undervalued, and they have an
22:47
Speaker 1: excellent offensive line. Adrian Pearson looks like he's twenty two again.
22:50
Speaker 1: Behind that offensive line. So I think that that you're
22:53
Speaker 1: getting a full touchdown here. Um for a team who's
22:56
Speaker 1: undervalue in the Redskins going on the road, I think
22:59
Speaker 1: it's I it's a good play. It's a lot of points. Man,
23:02
Speaker 1: in the NFL. For a quality team to lose on
23:04
Speaker 1: the road, it is a lot of points. The Redskins,
23:07
Speaker 1: I think, are surprised, like they're a sleeper team right now.
23:11
Speaker 1: To me, I think, I think that you lose to
23:15
Speaker 1: the Colts in the second week of the year, and
23:19
Speaker 1: I think that lingers with people. And so this is
23:23
Speaker 1: a team that because they had to buy after that
23:26
Speaker 1: big winn against the Packers, they're sort of gonna get
23:28
Speaker 1: forgotten about. And where is the Saints go on the road?
23:32
Speaker 1: They beat the Giants. Um, that's a big win. That's
23:35
Speaker 1: hard to do. People still feel like the Giants could
23:37
Speaker 1: be a team, like they're getting that close. So, um,
23:41
Speaker 1: it's all my reasoning taken a question with you, Yes,
23:45
Speaker 1: what's the what bye week do you want? Jeff? You
23:52
Speaker 1: want it week nine? See what I like? Split the
23:57
Speaker 1: difference things, But yeah, I missed the bye weeks were
23:59
Speaker 1: like the best right at week nine? Your coach gives
24:01
Speaker 1: you the whole week off. I went to Turks and
24:03
Speaker 1: Caicos one year during bye week. I was all over
24:05
Speaker 1: the place Bahamas one year. Yeah, we got the whole
24:09
Speaker 1: week off. I came to say that with the Turks.
24:10
Speaker 1: Came back on Saturday. But yeah, that's awesome. Yeah, you're
24:15
Speaker 1: with friends. Like, no, we had no kids yet, so bounced.
24:22
Speaker 1: So we're going back to college really quick. Um, Kentucky
24:28
Speaker 1: on the road at A and M. It opened at
24:31
Speaker 1: six players plus six point five and now at plus
24:34
Speaker 1: six Kentucky is five and oh, folks, like they're playing
24:37
Speaker 1: really good football and they're playing really good defense. Uh.
24:40
Speaker 1: They beat South Carolina, who's whatever. They missip State, who
24:43
Speaker 1: we thought was gonna be really good. They gave it
24:45
Speaker 1: to Florida earlier in the year. Um, I think that
24:48
Speaker 1: this this this team can play some ball and defense.
24:51
Speaker 1: Remember travels very well. So Kentucky right now defensively is
24:54
Speaker 1: four and yards per play. They're playing an an M
24:57
Speaker 1: team that's sloppy under under Jimbo Fisher, first year head
25:00
Speaker 1: coach there. Um, their yards for playing on defense is
25:03
Speaker 1: a hundred and twelve. So so Kentucky will be able
25:06
Speaker 1: to move the ball on them and I think they'll
25:07
Speaker 1: be able to stop them. I get almost a touchdown
25:10
Speaker 1: here with a five in old football team on the
25:12
Speaker 1: road against a new program. In Jimbo Fisher, I like
25:16
Speaker 1: Kentucky here, I had a strong opinion on this game.
25:22
Speaker 1: Go ahead. I actually love this pick. Wow, all right,
25:30
Speaker 1: it's it's a tough chick to love. It's a tough
25:32
Speaker 1: pick to love. But like, listen, I'm not a Stoops fan,
25:34
Speaker 1: but I think this is the one Stoops that could
25:36
Speaker 1: actually coach. Um. Kentucky hasn't been relevant in football listen.
25:42
Speaker 1: Like I said, I've spent so much time in Lexington
25:45
Speaker 1: when they don't don't care about anything else besides who
25:51
Speaker 1: the next great basketball player that's gonna walk on that campus.
25:54
Speaker 1: And they got a real football team this year, and
25:56
Speaker 1: they got a real defense. Um, and this is gonna
26:00
Speaker 1: be the best defense, said Jimbo Fisher's face. And maybe
26:02
Speaker 1: they're gonna have a little bit of a you know,
26:05
Speaker 1: after the Clemson game, they had a little bit of
26:07
Speaker 1: a tiny bit of a letdown. And he's right, it's
26:09
Speaker 1: a little bit of all over the they're a little
26:12
Speaker 1: bit all over the place. Kentucky is for real on defense,
26:17
Speaker 1: and like he said, I don't know if anybody's gonna
26:18
Speaker 1: take them serious. You're still getting six and a half
26:20
Speaker 1: seven points. The fact that they put six and a
26:22
Speaker 1: half again, that line got six and a half just
26:25
Speaker 1: scares me. Why don't you like it? I feel like
26:29
Speaker 1: I look at Collins numbers. Colin has Texas A and
26:32
Speaker 1: M as in eight and a half point favorite in
26:35
Speaker 1: this game. Right now, the line is six, Kentucky is
26:39
Speaker 1: five and Oh, as you said, they are never going
26:43
Speaker 1: to have more value, more inflation in their perspective than
26:47
Speaker 1: they do right now. A and M is coming off
26:50
Speaker 1: of what jimbo Fisher called their worst game of the
26:53
Speaker 1: season against Arkansas. So I think we've got sort of
26:59
Speaker 1: a low perception of A and M and a high
27:03
Speaker 1: perception of Kentucky meeting in the middle to create a
27:06
Speaker 1: line that is probably two to three points lower than
27:09
Speaker 1: what it should be. So I'm getting about two and
27:11
Speaker 1: a half points of value on A and M. I
27:14
Speaker 1: need to pull up my slack because I asked Colin
27:17
Speaker 1: about the projections, because for example, he had Ohio State
27:20
Speaker 1: um favored by eight over initially over Penn State. So
27:24
Speaker 1: I said, like, oh, how states favor by four? I
27:26
Speaker 1: should take them, right, that would be the smart thing
27:28
Speaker 1: to do. And he's like, well, not really, like it
27:30
Speaker 1: gave me the reasons why I don't have my slack.
27:31
Speaker 1: I'm on a different computer right now. I don't know
27:33
Speaker 1: my slack pulled up. But he said it was not
27:35
Speaker 1: It's not like totally. When you added all the things
27:38
Speaker 1: and you get the new projections from the week, and
27:40
Speaker 1: do you see where the new stats are at? He's like,
27:42
Speaker 1: you have to look at more sometimes than just that
27:45
Speaker 1: initial line. Because I was gonna bet Ohio State hard.
27:47
Speaker 1: I bet him anyways, but because I'm like, look a
27:49
Speaker 1: four point difference, let's go harder. And he's like, just like,
27:52
Speaker 1: do your research before you go hard at it? All right,
27:56
Speaker 1: I listen, all we can do in these things is
27:59
Speaker 1: talk about it, right. Oh no? And then I feel like,
28:04
Speaker 1: ultimately I'm going to side with the majority. I'm not
28:08
Speaker 1: obstinate in my leanings. I'm not like you know, Congress,
28:13
Speaker 1: I just I'm looking forward to to you and Blackjack
28:15
Speaker 1: throwing our college football game and you're super contest and
28:18
Speaker 1: being really happy about Kentucky this week. After I said,
28:20
Speaker 1: after you told me it was a bad play on Monday,
28:22
Speaker 1: I go with the wind. That's why I can never
28:30
Speaker 1: be a politician, because, like I, I won't be hard
28:32
Speaker 1: and fast in my feelings. I will go with the wind.
28:36
Speaker 1: How many bets are on that game? They're playing all
28:41
Speaker 1: in Kentucky that game right now? Let me look in
28:43
Speaker 1: the Action Network Gap and Jeff Schwartz has a bet
28:47
Speaker 1: on it that there are nine d bets on this
28:51
Speaker 1: game currently. But that is also I'm looking at one book.
28:54
Speaker 1: So my uh, my Action Network Gap, I follow the
28:57
Speaker 1: West Gate. The West Gate has nine dred bets in
29:00
Speaker 1: that game. I will say, of all the SEC games, um,
29:04
Speaker 1: this one has double oh no Florida lsus N, and
29:10
Speaker 1: then it's this one and then Bama Arkansas obviously low volume. Still, PAULI,
29:18
Speaker 1: who do you got? Oh? Oh boy, I'm gonna go
29:24
Speaker 1: to the NFL. I thought you were gonna pull like
29:29
Speaker 1: regional Mississippi teams. There's too many points and it's already
29:38
Speaker 1: got the most pets I think in the NFL. Yeah,
29:41
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I'm I'm on the West Guide. Well
29:44
Speaker 1: in second less sev one, I I gotta take the
29:47
Speaker 1: points to ten points with the Colts against the Patriots. Um,
29:52
Speaker 1: you guys talk about Andrew Luck never in that game,
29:56
Speaker 1: but somehow just finds a way. We talked about that
29:59
Speaker 1: last week, how they just find a way. Um. New
30:03
Speaker 1: England played a bad Miami team. I think Miami got
30:06
Speaker 1: sought out this week. I don't think they're that good.
30:08
Speaker 1: They're gonna be eight and eight by the seasons. And
30:10
Speaker 1: we all know that New England is very average. Josh
30:14
Speaker 1: Gordon does not move them up that much to be
30:17
Speaker 1: a ten point favorite. The weather is going to be normal.
30:20
Speaker 1: It's not gonna be crazy. Are we looked at the weather.
30:23
Speaker 1: It's not gonna be like forty degrees or anything like.
30:25
Speaker 1: That's gonna be in the seventies. I'll give. I'll take
30:28
Speaker 1: Andrew Luck in the ten points. The thing about Paul
30:31
Speaker 1: chat As, he is so well prepared, Like I don't
30:33
Speaker 1: know how to counter a lot of what he says
30:36
Speaker 1: other than do we do we better get the Patriots? Like?
30:39
Speaker 1: Is that is that a smart play? In general? It's
30:42
Speaker 1: a Thursd end of football game. The culture on the road.
30:46
Speaker 1: I think Andrew Luck is kind of like a covering machine,
30:48
Speaker 1: especially the end of football games. I can see this
30:50
Speaker 1: being a late cover. New England played their best game
30:53
Speaker 1: this season by far yesterday against like Paul said in
30:56
Speaker 1: Miami Team that um I was high on, but I
30:59
Speaker 1: can't be anymore. They they got exposed. I think, uh,
31:02
Speaker 1: pretty pretty harshly in that game until ten points a lot.
31:07
Speaker 1: I mean even you know, even last Thursday and night,
31:09
Speaker 1: we thought the Rams were gonna just run all over
31:11
Speaker 1: the Vikings and and and the vikings depending what number
31:13
Speaker 1: you got pushed or you got seven and a half,
31:15
Speaker 1: or are you lost by half a point and six
31:17
Speaker 1: and a half, I just I can't see this being
31:21
Speaker 1: a total blowout, which makes me think the points aren't
31:24
Speaker 1: the bad play here. Well, coming from someone who has
31:28
Speaker 1: literally had money on or against the Colts every single
31:34
Speaker 1: week so far this year. Oh yeah, yeah, so I've
31:36
Speaker 1: watched Actually I'll value your opinion, and you have watched
31:39
Speaker 1: every snap. I've watched all of their games. Andrew Luck,
31:43
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter what the numbers say. Fucking keeps his
31:48
Speaker 1: team in the game. He just does like and ten
31:53
Speaker 1: points Are you kidding me? This is another one? This
31:56
Speaker 1: is a and M Kentucky right Like, Look, look, I
32:00
Speaker 1: recently discovered the Patriots as a team you want to
32:02
Speaker 1: bet on. You can read all about it in my
32:04
Speaker 1: new column on Action network dot Com. Um, wow, pop
32:10
Speaker 1: tarts with the sun. But uh, I will tell you,
32:17
Speaker 1: I think you're getting like the Patriots at an extreme
32:20
Speaker 1: high right now. And when I looked at this, when
32:23
Speaker 1: I looked at these lines to to talk about this
32:25
Speaker 1: podcast today, this is one of the lines when that
32:28
Speaker 1: I looked at him like, huh, I might like this one.
32:30
Speaker 1: But I felt like I couldn't go back to the
32:31
Speaker 1: Colts because I go to them every single week. So
32:34
Speaker 1: I'm glad someone else is doing it. You someone jumping
32:39
Speaker 1: on the ship. Yeah, someone do it because I can't
32:42
Speaker 1: do it. I mean, by the end of the week
32:44
Speaker 1: here and have so much money in New England. I mean,
32:46
Speaker 1: you're gonna be on Sports Center touting that in double time. Seriously,
32:50
Speaker 1: I can't wait to go on Sports and I'm gonna
32:52
Speaker 1: be like, guys, I'm all in on the Giants on Rutgers.
33:03
Speaker 1: Give me a taste of East Carolina. Feel like, I
33:09
Speaker 1: just love that that Paul was at work and there's
33:10
Speaker 1: there's a zillion good games on TV yesterday and Paul's
33:13
Speaker 1: like huddling his cubicle watching East Carolina Old Dominion on
33:18
Speaker 1: ESPN three on his iPad like I just I just
33:21
Speaker 1: love it, like I wasn't watching the game, was his
33:22
Speaker 1: pay attention to on the app. And my favorite part
33:24
Speaker 1: two about Hawaii and and and same Ay State is
33:27
Speaker 1: the game was literally not on television, like the app said,
33:30
Speaker 1: does not have enough information to provide accurate updates because
33:34
Speaker 1: like it was literally no one was watching it. It
33:37
Speaker 1: was not on television. I had to go to regular
33:39
Speaker 1: like a regular ESPN app and search for the the
33:43
Speaker 1: box score because it was not like able to be
33:47
Speaker 1: updated on the Action Network app. It was hilarious, so classic,
33:51
Speaker 1: by the way, you hear did you see the ending
33:53
Speaker 1: of that game? And went into four overtimes? They went
33:56
Speaker 1: seven seven zero zero zero zero zero zero. San Jose
34:02
Speaker 1: State kicked a field goal, Hawaii scored a touchdown. San
34:05
Speaker 1: Jose State missed three field goals to win that game
34:08
Speaker 1: in overtime. Paul, I know, I did not watch it.
34:11
Speaker 1: I just said it wasn't on television. I don't know
34:13
Speaker 1: if that's that's what ended up happening in the game.
34:15
Speaker 1: Is what I'm saying, is like they missed stayed on
34:18
Speaker 1: the money line. It has to be one of the worst.
34:19
Speaker 1: I think they missed two or three field goals in overtime. Crazy?
34:24
Speaker 1: All right, is it my turn? I would like to
34:28
Speaker 1: choose the Atlanta Falcons as four point underdog. No why why? Why? Why? No? No? No?
34:40
Speaker 1: Their their defense is so bang no no, like why listen? Why?
34:52
Speaker 1: By the way, can I ask you you a question?
34:53
Speaker 1: What was going on with Big Ben in the second half?
34:55
Speaker 1: He looked like Stefan Diggs in the Geico commercial. Everything
34:58
Speaker 1: was sticking to his hands and he was spiking the ball.
35:02
Speaker 1: Look doesn't normal? Someonmizes Thomber or something. So I want
35:08
Speaker 1: to hear Chad's reasoning. Let's let's go my My reasoning
35:12
Speaker 1: is that the Steelers are a hot mess right now.
35:14
Speaker 1: They shouldn't be favorite against anybody. And while the Falcons
35:18
Speaker 1: defense really is is like horrible, like no Dion Jones,
35:23
Speaker 1: no kian O'Neil Ricardo Allen, like you know, the three
35:26
Speaker 1: of us, Uh, just the three of us with like
35:29
Speaker 1: Jeff at the offensive line, Paul at his flanker position
35:34
Speaker 1: and he is a as an RPO quarterback. Uh could
35:39
Speaker 1: beat this team, right, Tayo Hill Right? But um, but
35:44
Speaker 1: they can score. The Falcons can score, and like all
35:48
Speaker 1: of a sudden, it's like they're playing flag football out there.
35:50
Speaker 1: Every time Matt Ryan drops back, everybody's wide open. I
35:54
Speaker 1: don't think the Steelers can cover them. I think it's
35:56
Speaker 1: a close game. I'll tell you what. You have something there,
35:59
Speaker 1: because I've been seeing literally waiting for my book to
36:02
Speaker 1: open up the over and under. I'm worried about Ben
36:05
Speaker 1: I'm not. I'm not lying because that second half was
36:07
Speaker 1: ridiculous because he couldn't throw the ball. But I don't
36:10
Speaker 1: know what they're gonna hang this under and over because
36:13
Speaker 1: if they don't fumble the ball on the one yard line,
36:16
Speaker 1: it's twenty one to three Baltimore and they could have
36:19
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, there could be a lot of
36:21
Speaker 1: points scored in this game. No short syne, there could
36:24
Speaker 1: be a lot of points scoring this game. Just for fun.
36:26
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan gets the Steelers and his career only played
36:28
Speaker 1: twice over two because they play uh every four years,
36:31
Speaker 1: they go home in array every eight years. Why hasn't
36:33
Speaker 1: only played them twice? Was he hurt? It's kind of weird.
36:36
Speaker 1: He's own too, by the way, played back against AFC South.
36:41
Speaker 1: Nothing you're saying is relevant to this game, nothing, Chad.
36:45
Speaker 1: Let me ask you a quick question. I found one
36:48
Speaker 1: under and over that online. What do you think the
36:51
Speaker 1: under and over in that game is? I was gonna so, yeah,
36:56
Speaker 1: fifty six that is a that's a college line. Wow.
37:02
Speaker 1: All right, listen, you guys don't like this game. Clearly
37:04
Speaker 1: you're both like you're not in favor of this game.
37:07
Speaker 1: Which is cool, Atlanta is this this season? That's defense?
37:10
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, their defense is really bad. That's good. Staffs
37:12
Speaker 1: like their defense there twenty six yards. I'm sort of
37:15
Speaker 1: with chat that they're hot. Man. Such a tough read here,
37:19
Speaker 1: because you guys don' want a challenge flag. I will
37:21
Speaker 1: come back this. I think about this week. I think
37:24
Speaker 1: about this week is I just don't think there's like
37:26
Speaker 1: a lot of games were like that. That's a great game.
37:29
Speaker 1: So if you feel strongly about a game, I kind
37:31
Speaker 1: of have to go with your gut here because like
37:32
Speaker 1: I said, like I'm looking to NFL schedule, like there's
37:34
Speaker 1: not like games are like wow, this is the Vegas
37:37
Speaker 1: have screwed this lineup and we got to bet this
37:39
Speaker 1: right away. So there's gonna be a lot of points
37:42
Speaker 1: scoring this game. Um, which and you get four points.
37:47
Speaker 1: I mean, it's not it's not that bad. Paul already
37:50
Speaker 1: bet Pittsburgh. Already bet Pittsburgh last night. Paul, I bet
37:53
Speaker 1: him last night because after watching that's why, after watching
37:58
Speaker 1: the first half, and I'm like and watching, after watching
38:04
Speaker 1: the first half of that game last I watched, I
38:06
Speaker 1: watched Andy Dalton like literally just go up and down
38:10
Speaker 1: the field, like there's Swiss cheese right now in the phone.
38:13
Speaker 1: You bet, you bet, you bet. By the way, I
38:19
Speaker 1: thought Pittsburgh was gonna blow out Baltimore in the second half.
38:22
Speaker 1: The way they were playing. They were getting rolling, you know,
38:24
Speaker 1: and I thought, Okay, maybe this line will go open
38:26
Speaker 1: if you look. Look how much money's on Atlanta. Everybody's
38:29
Speaker 1: going towards Atlanta because they saw Pittsburgh play the second half.
38:34
Speaker 1: The bets are on Atlanta right now, so should we
38:38
Speaker 1: technically what year ninety? This is a good head for Paul.
38:42
Speaker 1: This is good like he doesn't need to be wrapped
38:44
Speaker 1: up in Pittsburgh everywhere so he can have his individual
38:47
Speaker 1: bet on Pittsburgh. And I guess, I guess I'm you know,
38:51
Speaker 1: in our airs, but a root against her. Yeah, I
38:58
Speaker 1: will go back and and play Atlanta even it out,
39:01
Speaker 1: because no, no, no, this is this is this is
39:05
Speaker 1: your hedge. Right, you can be in Pittsburgh individually, but
39:09
Speaker 1: if Pittsburgh doesn't work out, you got Atlanta plus four
39:11
Speaker 1: in the parlay and you could win or a piece
39:14
Speaker 1: of the other eight. Right there you go, chassy guy
39:19
Speaker 1: who who who plays that don't pass line? Oh one?
39:24
Speaker 1: For sure? Yes there's ever a hedge. I'm gonna find it.
39:29
Speaker 1: I mean, um, all right, I'm fine, I'm I'm fine.
39:34
Speaker 1: Feel like I feel like I'm being insulted. I just
39:36
Speaker 1: don't know it. Do you know? Did you play craps
39:39
Speaker 1: that don't pass line? I don't play craps. You know why?
39:42
Speaker 1: I can't ever figure it out. You typically bet for
39:46
Speaker 1: the roller that's the pass line that don't pass lines.
39:48
Speaker 1: You bet against the rollers. You basically bet against the table,
39:51
Speaker 1: and you be that guy who walks. Everyone hates that guy.
39:53
Speaker 1: They walk up, They put their money where it's empty,
39:56
Speaker 1: where no one else has money, and your root against
39:58
Speaker 1: the guys rolling the dice. Listen, I feel like that's
40:01
Speaker 1: that is an inappropriate interpretation of who I am. There's
40:05
Speaker 1: nobody who roots for everybody around him more than me
40:08
Speaker 1: written seven books, But you cannot figure out grass. There's
40:15
Speaker 1: nobody who roots friends more than me. My friends success
40:18
Speaker 1: is my success. I only want you guys to win.
40:20
Speaker 1: Only that's because I'm a leader, Jeff, go ahead, Okay.
40:25
Speaker 1: So I wanna need you guys help on this one.
40:28
Speaker 1: There's two that I in the NFL that I sort
40:30
Speaker 1: of like equally and maybe not like equally. So I
40:34
Speaker 1: need can we get some some I need some help
40:36
Speaker 1: from the gallery? All right? So to the two options
40:38
Speaker 1: for this play and I have I can make statements
40:40
Speaker 1: either one for this Arizona. Where to go Arizona at
40:45
Speaker 1: San Francisco they opened up at plus five is now
40:49
Speaker 1: down to plus four and a half weird number there,
40:51
Speaker 1: or Jacksonville plus three at Kansas City. Now we know
40:54
Speaker 1: that line could move after the Kansas City plays tonight. Um,
40:58
Speaker 1: that game is at Kansas City? Which one of those
41:00
Speaker 1: two do you feel more comfortable about? And I can?
41:02
Speaker 1: I kind of like both equally. Poli, Well, I think
41:06
Speaker 1: a lot of people are gonna be on Arizona just
41:08
Speaker 1: because of the Phil Dawson Blues. Like I said, um,
41:12
Speaker 1: I think there and C. J. Bethard sort of imploded
41:16
Speaker 1: in the second half of that very good They had
41:19
Speaker 1: a good start. I mean that's yeah, good started and
41:21
Speaker 1: then then they put the clamps on him in the
41:22
Speaker 1: second half. Cardinals, they couldn't win a game. I guess
41:30
Speaker 1: they don't have to win this game for us to
41:31
Speaker 1: win the bet, though. If you play Jacksonville now, I
41:35
Speaker 1: mean Kansas City plays tonight, what is the Jacksonville line?
41:40
Speaker 1: Three plus three? You guys, this is a no brainer?
41:43
Speaker 1: Is Jacksonville plus three? Right? No, it's Arizona. Noll I
41:48
Speaker 1: bet Arizona already, So I feel better now that we
41:50
Speaker 1: agreed on that. So that's one of the two NFL
41:53
Speaker 1: bets already made for this week. I love this Cardinals team.
41:55
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna turn around. Don't think they're gonna
41:56
Speaker 1: make the playoffs, But like, what do you love about that?
42:00
Speaker 1: Because they well, you know what I do like about
42:02
Speaker 1: them is that I like about rosen As. They were
42:05
Speaker 1: down a touchdown and he at least drove the team
42:07
Speaker 1: down the field to get a chance to tie the game.
42:09
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that says enough against against the foe.
42:14
Speaker 1: I don't think Seattle's much, but then they end up.
42:16
Speaker 1: I also thought their defense yesterday was great, Like the
42:19
Speaker 1: defense really well, they have a lot of talent, They're
42:21
Speaker 1: trying to figure out how to because Steve Wilkes is
42:24
Speaker 1: more of a four three cover two guy, and and
42:28
Speaker 1: they have three or four personnel, and they're trying to
42:30
Speaker 1: figure out, like how to get these guys all playing
42:33
Speaker 1: the same place. And yesterday felt like the first time.
42:35
Speaker 1: And look, Seattle's offensive line is garbage, but they found
42:38
Speaker 1: a way to get after Seattle. I just I'm with you, Paul.
42:41
Speaker 1: I think Arizona has to win. And here's something about c. J. Bethard.
42:45
Speaker 1: He played really well to open that game yesterday, they're
42:47
Speaker 1: up fourteen nothing, but then it kind of wore off.
42:49
Speaker 1: He kind of came back to reality. Because here's the
42:52
Speaker 1: thing I've said this with the Bears is you have
42:55
Speaker 1: a first fifteen, so you design your first fift team
42:57
Speaker 1: places and College Nahan does that as well. And those
42:59
Speaker 1: are places you've you've scripted in your head. You know
43:01
Speaker 1: what defense you're gonna get, you know everything that's about
43:04
Speaker 1: to happen, and you then have a chance to succeed that.
43:08
Speaker 1: After you that first fifteen is up, then your quarterback
43:10
Speaker 1: has to then go into the regular plays and and
43:12
Speaker 1: he's not gonna know exactly what defense he's getting every
43:14
Speaker 1: time and you kind of come back to earth a
43:16
Speaker 1: little bit. So its like a low scoring game. Both
43:18
Speaker 1: defenses playing well, and I'll take the points. In Arizona. Boom, noise, Wow,
43:28
Speaker 1: he said, make the noise, demanded it. It's Matt Ford,
43:32
Speaker 1: our producer. There you go. We're seven picks in. We
43:35
Speaker 1: got two more to go. Okay, I know where I'm going. Really,
43:39
Speaker 1: Paul's looking at the FBS schedule right now to find
43:41
Speaker 1: some I did have a crazy game, but I don't
43:46
Speaker 1: want I need to hear it. I need it. I
43:48
Speaker 1: needed my blood. I'm going to Houston Texans minus three.
43:56
Speaker 1: I know it's it's not a popular pick. They beat
43:59
Speaker 1: the Chad Millman Indianapolis Colts, who we're gonna like this week.
44:04
Speaker 1: I mean, I think DeShawn Watson getting his first win back.
44:07
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna give him a little bit of confidence. Yeah.
44:12
Speaker 1: The Cowboys, I mean they're the most a team of
44:16
Speaker 1: all time. They really are. And and here's the thing
44:18
Speaker 1: is they should have lost last week that a couple
44:21
Speaker 1: of Detroit at a couple of plays called back they did.
44:24
Speaker 1: They were in and against against in against Seattle, I
44:28
Speaker 1: mean they could barely put up twenty points against the Giants.
44:32
Speaker 1: I don't know. I just think Houston needs to show
44:34
Speaker 1: up now. I mean they started going three, one and three.
44:36
Speaker 1: If they can get to two and three, um, um
44:40
Speaker 1: by beating Dallas and then they got Buffalo and then
44:46
Speaker 1: they got Jacksonville, they they can get to three and three.
44:48
Speaker 1: I think if I'm in that locker room, I'm thinking, okay,
44:51
Speaker 1: I'm one and three. We win this game, and then
44:53
Speaker 1: we got Buffalo at home. We can get to three
44:55
Speaker 1: and three, okay, and then we get Jacksonville and then
44:57
Speaker 1: Miami and then Denver. We get honestly, get to like
45:01
Speaker 1: four and three, five and four, and then be back
45:03
Speaker 1: in this race after starting this season only three. This
45:07
Speaker 1: has the potential to be an ugly football game. Um.
45:12
Speaker 1: You have a Cowboys offense that is basically just Zeke
45:15
Speaker 1: Elliott and then a bunch of other players that are
45:16
Speaker 1: on the team. UM. Gets the Texas defense that's starting
45:20
Speaker 1: to play a little better now that you know the
45:21
Speaker 1: cold scheme was, but their defensive line Watt is now
45:24
Speaker 1: back in full force. Um. And then you have a
45:27
Speaker 1: Texans offense that's like getting better with Watson, but their
45:32
Speaker 1: offensive line is miserable because the Cowboys good pass rush
45:38
Speaker 1: the Texans whin they're gonna win by three? I think,
45:40
Speaker 1: I mean that's I don't I don't buy the Cowboys.
45:43
Speaker 1: Don't really buy the Texans either, But Paul, I mean,
45:44
Speaker 1: I don't know. How do you feel, Chad? Chad? Why
45:48
Speaker 1: is you know it's you and Scooch for we're talking
45:50
Speaker 1: about this? Why nobody's playing the Cowboys no more? No
45:53
Speaker 1: fans in the Cowboys anymore? Huh? No one to watch?
45:56
Speaker 1: Who's the who's on the team that you're interested in?
45:58
Speaker 1: Just like Ezekie Eliot is not a guy that you
46:00
Speaker 1: rove for, Dak Prescott, no one cares about Cole Beasley
46:04
Speaker 1: is your best receiver? Like I was thinking about this yesterday,
46:07
Speaker 1: there is zero sort of view ability. Zack Martin the
46:11
Speaker 1: right guard. Please, He's amazing, There's no doubt about it.
46:17
Speaker 1: I think, just right there. I love Houston, Love it.
46:24
Speaker 1: I got a Houston super Bowl ticket. I got a
46:27
Speaker 1: Houston super Bowl ticket. You can read about it in
46:29
Speaker 1: the column I wrote for Action Network dot Com when
46:31
Speaker 1: I broke down diary, what company do you work for?
46:35
Speaker 1: I've never heard that comedy before? You and others as well?
46:41
Speaker 1: Uh my pick, Here we go Boys. Here we go.
46:49
Speaker 1: Get those flags ready. Seattle plus seven and a half
46:53
Speaker 1: at home against the Los Angeles Rames. Man, I was
46:57
Speaker 1: gonna take this one. I kind of like it. It's
47:04
Speaker 1: this look. We know that that the Rams are very
47:07
Speaker 1: good and eventually though, they're not gonna be this way
47:12
Speaker 1: every single week, and it feels like this is a
47:15
Speaker 1: little opportunity for a letdown on the road in Seattle.
47:19
Speaker 1: We still know it's a hostile place to play. Seattle
47:22
Speaker 1: one as well this week too, so their fans might
47:24
Speaker 1: be back into it. Um. Earl Thomas being out there
47:27
Speaker 1: is a big problem for Yeah, but this may help
47:31
Speaker 1: him around. But you get no, he's still he played.
47:34
Speaker 1: He's playing really well, but he had two interceptions against
47:36
Speaker 1: the Cowboys two weeks ago. Um, that hook is really important.
47:40
Speaker 1: I think here because Seattle and Russell Wilson, they he
47:44
Speaker 1: just manages to like at the end of games, score
47:47
Speaker 1: a bunch of points. In the two minutes, Hill just
47:48
Speaker 1: running for his life, throwing the ball up. If if
47:51
Speaker 1: Peters is not back yet, Peter has played, but he
47:53
Speaker 1: was a pent. If Peterson add percent and to leave
47:56
Speaker 1: not playing, I can see the seven and a half.
47:58
Speaker 1: I don't I don't really. Like I said in the
48:00
Speaker 1: sleeve of NFL games this year, this is this week.
48:03
Speaker 1: I should say it's not bad, you know what? This
48:05
Speaker 1: week and reminded me of this. This weekend reminded me
48:09
Speaker 1: that sometimes you believe in certain theories and principles and
48:13
Speaker 1: if you see it, you gotta bet it and just
48:15
Speaker 1: hold your nose. Like going into the weekend. The previous weekends,
48:19
Speaker 1: I had been anxious about betting big home underdogs against teams.
48:24
Speaker 1: I thought that we're killing it and it costs me opportunities.
48:28
Speaker 1: This week, I bet all the home underdogs, I bet
48:31
Speaker 1: the short favorites, and it paid off for me, and
48:34
Speaker 1: so I gotta do it again, like right now, all
48:37
Speaker 1: the money. We know, all the money is going to
48:38
Speaker 1: come in in the Rams, So I gotta bet the
48:41
Speaker 1: Rams and we got we gotta bet the Seahawks and
48:44
Speaker 1: know that this is the opportunity. So we already down
48:48
Speaker 1: to seven. If you think about it, I'm gonna put
48:51
Speaker 1: alert on this game. The Rams played flawless and and
48:55
Speaker 1: there and there was a block in the back that
48:58
Speaker 1: the refs picked up the flag. If they don't pick
49:00
Speaker 1: up that flag, Minnesota backdoor covers them. Last week completely
49:04
Speaker 1: because some people have the game at six and now
49:05
Speaker 1: some people that had seven, some people that had seven out.
49:08
Speaker 1: If they pick up that flag, they don't kick that
49:10
Speaker 1: field goal. In Minnesota back door they win the game
49:13
Speaker 1: by four. So a lot of people forget that. I
49:16
Speaker 1: understand the Rams offense was phenomenal, but Kirk Cousins in
49:20
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings with Adam Feeling, who's I get it.
49:22
Speaker 1: He's a great, good receiver. Not great. It's shredded them too.
49:27
Speaker 1: On the other side, boys, I believe we have a
49:31
Speaker 1: nine team parlay. Are we ready to roll? Should we
49:33
Speaker 1: hear it? Should we play it back? Yes? You ready
49:36
Speaker 1: to go? We have the Carolina Panthers minus six and
49:40
Speaker 1: a half at home against the New York Giants. We
49:43
Speaker 1: have Illinois minus two and a half. At Rutgers. We
49:46
Speaker 1: have the Washington Redskins plus seven. At New Orleans, we
49:50
Speaker 1: have the University of Kentucky Wildcats plus six. At Texas
49:54
Speaker 1: A and M, the Indianapolis Colts plus ten versus the
49:59
Speaker 1: New England Patriot. It's Atlanta Falcons plus four. At Pittsburgh
50:04
Speaker 1: we have Arizona plus four. At San Francisco we have
50:08
Speaker 1: the Texans minus three verse of the Dallas Cowboys the
50:12
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks plus seven and a half versus the Los
50:16
Speaker 1: Angeles Rams, or, as Georgina likes to say, Rams at home.
50:25
Speaker 1: I feel it. You know why I'm excited for this week.
50:28
Speaker 1: It's because other weeks, I feel like we've been like
50:30
Speaker 1: this is the great slate of games, and this week
50:33
Speaker 1: I'm kind of like, you know what, the weird games
50:34
Speaker 1: are kind of weird, and I feel like this is
50:36
Speaker 1: a weekend we can really take advantage of the weirdness
50:38
Speaker 1: and like get get a great nine team parlay win
50:41
Speaker 1: for us exactly the same way. That's what I'm thinking, Like,
50:46
Speaker 1: we don't have a ton of confidence in these games,
50:49
Speaker 1: but that's when you win. Yeah, I'm with you. Do this.
50:52
Speaker 1: It just seems doesn't seem out Regius. It seems like
50:55
Speaker 1: a lot of people are saying our regis more than outrageous.
50:58
Speaker 1: Now I've never heard what's Outreaches, Who are you hanging
51:02
Speaker 1: out with Paul? In a million years, I've never heard
51:05
Speaker 1: I heard a reporter say it out Reaches. I'm like, listen,
51:08
Speaker 1: they're playing us off. Clearly playing is off. This has
51:12
Speaker 1: been the Favorites podcast from the Action Network I'm Chad Nolman,
51:15
Speaker 1: that is, Jeff Schwartz and Paul La Duca. Listen to
51:18
Speaker 1: us every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Wednesday's episode, me and
51:21
Speaker 1: Bookmaker to the World, Bob Scucci will break down the
51:24
Speaker 1: markets from the professional betting perspective. To see you next time.