Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA Round 2 Showdown | May 30, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

PGA Round 2 Showdown | May 30, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear the lift.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: What's going on, golf fans, it's your boy gle here
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: with our round two live stream for the memorial. Gonna
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: get you ready for all of your lineups. Better look
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: at the weather report, some ownership and strategy heading into Friday.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: We'll talk how to build a player pool, some contest selection,
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: even some lineup construction as well, and whatever questions you've
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: got in the live chat for me too. So we
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: got Ross down there. Who is killing it after round one?
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Let's run it back for Friday, so let's get on
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: after it. We got Alan as well, Stephen in go
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: collect all the regulars already saying hi first off, Hopefully
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: you're having a fantastic Thursday everyone, and get ready to
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: get after it for Friday. So if you don't have
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: any questions, don't be shy. You could say hi in
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: the live chat. But with anything that you're curious about,
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: any sort of player deep dives later on, just let
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: me know and we'll get to them when it's appropriate.
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: But to start off the live street, we're going to
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: focus on course conditions in the weather and then start
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: to focus on actual players and whatnot. So we got
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: c Floyd got Nick Marse here live. It's great to
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: see you here in a live chat for once. What's
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: going on, my man? I got Jason and Jordan as well,
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: and uh yeah, good observation team. Great Britain was going
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: through it today. The people over there with their fish
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: and chips lovers probably not feeling too great about it.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: But I've got to say Fleetwood looked pretty good at
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: one point today, so maybe they've got some fight back
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: over the weekend. But we got Nicholas Jones down there
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: says what's up, brother. Thanks for all I do you guys,
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: all of you viewers, everyone that supports the pieces of
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: content that I'm doing throughout the industry. I just want
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: to say thank you to all of you guys as well.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: So smash that like one if you guys haven't already,
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: and let's hop on into this thing. So course, conditions
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: today were pretty flat between the first and second half,
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: and it's not like we had defined waves. It was
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: just continuous two sums off of whole number one, So
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: you're not really ever gonna get a massive disparity in
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: that situation. And it was zo point one to seven
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: shots between the morning and afternoon and it's if you take
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: a look at the disparity, it favored the second half
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: of Tea Times, and frankly, I don't know if I'd
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: look into it all that much. This could have easily
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: been due to the difference in talent level from gap
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: to gap, or could could have just been variance because
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: Ben Griffin went off relatively early. He did have players
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: like Colin Moore cobbwa that were towards like the last
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: third of Tea Times, but it was a pretty good
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: mix towards the top here. So I personally didn't see
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: a massive factor with the weather today a massive impact,
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: I should say with the slate and tomorrow. I think
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: it's the same kind of thing because if we take
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: a look at the Friday forecast, we have the h
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: triple R up here on windy dot com. You can
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: see that they're calling for almost the same exact scenario,
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: but with a little bit of rain in the morning
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: and some forecasts some models in the local area are
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: calling for the possibility of some isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon,
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: which I guess in theory could bring into play some
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: sort of a delay, but at least if it ends
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: up playing without a delay. I don't see any massive
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: difference from round to round it, like I was mentioning before,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: because it is continuous two sums off of whole number one.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: It's not like we'd say, oh, only go out there
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: and play your morning guys, or only play the guys
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: that are in the PM wave. We don't have that
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: same kind of situation. So if we're going to deep
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: out the weather and I guess try and give you
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: a few angles to take if you're trying to correlate
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: some lineups and perhaps get an edge if there ends
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: up being one. Is maybe the late morning guys are
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: the best tea times to target because and I'm talking
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: more so like the nine to eleven o'clock time zone there,
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: So like that two hour window, you can play most
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: of your rounds without any sort of wind. Also, it's
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: gonna be a little bit higher temperatures by the late morning,
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: and I think that's why the PM wave played a
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: little bit easier today. The ball was traveling further. You
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: were having a lot of issues in the morning if
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: you weren't a long player. Off of tee. You had
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: guys like Snedeker with two hundred yard approach shots and
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: like six of his first nine holes, which isn't sustainable,
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: especially for an older player like Snedeker that doesn't hit
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: the ball quite as far as what he's used to. Tomorrow,
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: though it doesn't look like it's as cool in the morning.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: It's closer to about sixty degrees at tip off rather
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: than fifty degrees like you had today, So I don't
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: think it's gonna be a real big impact at all.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: The scoring average might even be a little bit flatter
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: than round number one. But if there was any sort
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: of tea times that maybe get an advantage, it would
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: be these like nine to eleven o'clock guys, because they're
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: going to finish play before that potential storm comes through.
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: You can see the h triple R cut has it
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: coming in around three pm. I believe most of the
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: models that I was looking at had it around two
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: to four pm. Had that storm coming through. Those late
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: morning guys aren't going to really have to deal with that.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: And the reason why it's important to point this out,
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: guys is if we go to the NAM forecast, we
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: take a look at Saturday, it looks dreadful, it looks
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: windy as all hell. It's about twenty five miles an
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: hour sustained wins or win guss to say fifteen miles
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: an hour sustained on Saturday morning. So if there happens
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: to be a delay, which there's no way to predict
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: us ahead of time, which is why I'm not really
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: playing the weather, it would favor those guys in the
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: morning for sure, because they'd be able to play all
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: the rounds before that ends up becoming a thing. But
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: it's so, what is it. Sketchy at best is probably
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: the best way to put it. I was thinking of
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: a better way. Questionable at best is probably the best
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: way to put that kind of a weather edge. So
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: I'm personally playing the slate very straight up. I think
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: that in most scenarios it's gonna be like a point
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: one maybe a point two shot difference at most between
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: the two different waves. But I will say that if
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: there is a side to go out there act in
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: like ten twenty percent of your portfolio, it would be
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: those late morning guys. So just wanted to throw that
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: out there. It's not something that I'm personally gonna be
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: taking advantage of. And just to give you an idea
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: of who some of those players would be, you know
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: your pave on's around eight forty Max Home was going
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: off in that group, But all these guys that you
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: see on the screen right now in fury would be
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: the guys you'd want to target if you're going with
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: that kind of a stack end you now, you could
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: push it out a few groups in either direction, so
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: you could go past a little bit past eleven am local,
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: maybe even to like eleven eleven eleven twenty vice versa. Right,
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: maybe you even push it forward a bit and take
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: all the rest of the morning guys as well. Maybe
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: not ideal conditions because it'll be damper. Also, courses can
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: play at a little bit longer, but the fact that
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: it won't be as warm at eight am. So that's
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: why I was pushing back that tea time wave just
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: a little bit. But maybe you make your cutoff ten
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: thirty am and you take everyone out before that. I
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: think there's a bunch of different ways you could approach
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: this kind of slate, But again, full transparency for my part, guys,
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: It's not something that I'm doing myself. I just like
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: to kind of spitball at times, or I give you, guys,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: you know, a few ideas when it comes to building
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: your lineups, because not anyone has the perfect process right.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: There's obviously times where I don't get the weather right,
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: and that happens to everyone out there that is building
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: showdown lineups. But you should be thinking about a lot
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: of these scenarios ahead of time. And I think, really,
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: when you make a mistake when it comes to playing
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: PGADFS and the weather is when you don't do your
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: research at all and you at least didn't consider right
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: some of these outside situations. Because if you're somebody that's
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: looking at the weather, it doesn't realize that a delay
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: is possible tomorrow afternoon, then you could get completely blindsided
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: if you know, for example, you see this zero point
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: one seven shot advantage, for example, when you go, oh,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: I really want to play the PM guys because I
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: want to take the side that played easier and round
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: number one. Imagine if you get delayed the next day
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: and you don't do the proper deep dive with the weather,
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: and then you end up getting screwed on Saturday morning
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: with like fifteen mili hours. So again, nothing that you
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: can really rely on. It is sketchy, for sure, but
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: that is the side I would lean if you decide
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: to do anything with the weather. But what we're gonna
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: do next is I'm gonna bring up my projections, which
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: I do already have up on my Patreon page. But
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: what we're gonna focus on here together is the top
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: owned plays. And we have all the guys that are
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: was it the top eleven highest zoned players on the slate,
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: so it was everyone that was over thirteen percent that
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: I threw in this little collection here. And what we're
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: gonna do is we're gonna go through the top end
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: of this list to show you some of the ticking
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: time bombs when it comes to the game theory, perhaps
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: players that you might want to think about twice before playing.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: I know my guy DJ and seventy five used to
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: have like his Donkey Chok list. This will be like
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: a little homage to him, I guess right, going through
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: some of the top owned guys on the slate. And
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: it's not like he always said as well, right, It's
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: not like you have to fade guys because they're super
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: highly owned, but it takes away from their utility, especially
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: when you're playing Showdown in rounds two and three, when
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: you have no placement points in playing especially around too,
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: when we've only seen eighteen holes this week. That is nothing.
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: That is a quarter of an NFL showdown slate. It's
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: like after the first quarter going and completely changing your
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: builds because the first quarter was rushing heavy in a game,
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: and you know, we've seen it completely flip at different
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: spots during NFL games, And if you've been following the
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: PGA Tour, I mean, you know the volatility from brown
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: to round out here on the PGA Tour as well.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: So that's why you could really make an argument for
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: fading a lot of these players because most of these guys,
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: what you'll notice here on the left side are players
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: that are under par so far, and there might be
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: a few exceptions like a Tommy Fleetwood, a Patrick can't
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: lay even as Xander softly up plus one that are
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: towards the top here. But if they're not under par
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: and in the top five top ten right now, they're
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: in the top twenty up there at even par or better.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: So we'll go through this list here in a second,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: but I do want to catch up on any specific
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: questions that people may have had on the weather before.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: So where are we at, what's going on? Joseph JT
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: shooting the course record after that performance, he might man right,
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: he did that. The players, that's for sure. What's going on,
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: Mike Aah, Aaron Rye. Chalk was a big swing and
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: a miss. Yeah, for sure. A lot of people that
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: played him aren't very happy. And same thing with Daniel Berger. Right,
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: Daniel Berger was super high owned and he shot plus
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: nine today. So there were a few chalk bombs, and
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty happy to see a lot of that happen
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: because I mean, you guys know me, right, I'm always
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: trying to fade as much chalk as possible. There are
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: a few guys that played that aren't in great situations,
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: but at least it's not like a twenty percent of
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: Daniel Berger that I'm playing that sucks. So it's a
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: you're gonna you're always gonna hit some, You're gonna miss some,
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: for sure, But the chockey guys missing usually makes me
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: pretty happy. What's going on, David? He said, so nice
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: to be live, smash the like bun you heard the
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: man get to it, guys, what's going on? Edge say, hey, Luke,
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: thanks for the live It's good that you can make it.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: For a change. My bad there I completely butchered that.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: But I got you ed. What's going on? Man? What's
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: going on? Blake? You said JJ swan post and if
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: fits are gonna miss the cut, sucks to hear that
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: for you, man, But there's gonna be a lot of
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: guys that missed the cut, and frankly, I don't know
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: about that. With those three guys. Spawn is within the
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: cut line right now. I know postings one outside the
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: cut line, and I'm not exactly sureber Fitz is. But
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you know the cut line role
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: this week if you're saying that sort of thing, But hey,
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: best of luck to you, man, I hope it goes
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: better for you. It's going on ross. Is there a
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: chance to get preferred lies? I don't think. So. It's
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: supposed to rain like zero point one inches tomorrow, so
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: who knows. Maybe the forecast that they're looking at is
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: calling for more rain and they take a precautionary approach,
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: but they didn't play it today and I think tomorrow
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: right they're probably gonna stick to that same sort of thing.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: So we'll have to wait on the word from the
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: tour to see what they officially decide. But I would
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: take a guess and say that they don't you see
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: Mount Vernon on the map, that's where you live. Love
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: the memorial. Yeah, I'm from Pittsburgh originally, so not that
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: far from Columbus, so love the Northeastern stuff that's going on.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: Joseph said, Urfield is the heavenly track. I agree with you, man.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: It's by the way. I've never played there before, but
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: one of these days it's on my bucket list to
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: get out and just see how tough that track can be.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: He said. Maybe this is a dumb question, but Decky
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: is negative off the tee and on approach, but positive
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: t to green. Is there anything to take from this? Yeah,
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: it means that he gained a bunch around around the
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: green right. Tee to green is off the tee approach
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: and around the green together. So he's negative in those
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: two and he's gaining in general. Well, there's only one
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: answer to that question. So, uh, there's nothing to take
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: away from that other than he chipped the ball. Well
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: it's going on, Nick not gonna lie. He wasn't able
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: to catch a shot today. That was the main factor.
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: What was the main factor for the scores? It's Nearfield Village.
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: Brother it's a course that played one point six over
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: par last year. Playing two strokes over par is not
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: surprising in the least. So it's just a hard track.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: So remind yourself by the way, guys, like you know,
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: I know, I was given Blake a little shit before
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: because I was like, dude, your guys are within the
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: cut line, Like, what are you saying? It played like
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: three strokes over par today two strokes over par forre
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: scoring average. The current cut line is plus four for
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: goodness sake, So you know, most times the cut line
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: after round one is like minus one minus two. Like,
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: remind yourself of that sometimes, right, Like your guys at
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: plus three plus four, it's almost like minus one minus
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: two in any other tour event. So it's just Mirifield
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: village man, And it's not gonna get any easier this weekend.
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: The wins are gonna kick up on Saturday. It's gonna
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: be super tough. Sunday. They always make it like the
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: toughest test on tour at the Memorial on Sundays. Tomorrow,
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: I think it's the day to go low. Pins. Today
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: were really tough. Tomorrow they might soften them, to soften
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: them up just a little bit. But dude, Saturday Sundays
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: are going to be even more brutal than today, So
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: I would say, get used to it. It's gonna only
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: get worse. It's going on, he said, Max Homa is
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: in rare form. Yeah, dude, I've got to say he's
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: looking like he's quote unquote back as some people would say,
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: but he has to put it together for an entire
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: event for me to be truly convinced. He's showing us
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: flashes of brilliance, but he's let he's yet to go
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: out there and really keep it together for more than
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: two three rounds. Nick Dunlop wasn't a dumpster fire today.
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's the time to play him at the mid price.
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: I'm not against it. I didn't get there myself, Alan,
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: but he is showing some kind of signs and we're
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: gonna go through the shots gain metrics here in a
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: few minutes. And I want to look at his off
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: the tee play because I mean that's what's been destroying them.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: And if he gained off the tee today, then yeah,
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: he might be a spot to get to. Wait twic
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: see who's number one on approach. Oh, I already know man,
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: I've already made my player pool, I've already done all
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: my projections ross, so trust me the We'll go through it,
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: though for sure it's a I mean, you know who
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: it is. We won't spoil it. It's going to run
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: the base. You said Mirfield is so specially your favorite course.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: Can't contend that at all. It's like Augusta National mixed
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: with Tory Pines. That's I think the best way to
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: describe it. Like off the t it's like Tory Pines.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: The Greens are like the Masters. It's a little bit
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: easier than both those courses. Like the Greens aren't as
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: bad as Augusta. It's not as hard of a test
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: as Tory Pines off the tee, but it's pretty damn
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: close in both cases. So, like you said, it's a
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: special golf course. But let's go through this ownership. So
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: we can see towards the top here, it's most of
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: the guys at the top end of the leaderboard that
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: are getting that kind of steam. But the kind of
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: players that I think you should really worry about with
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: the ownership are your guys in the six and seven
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: k range. Chance, there's not a ton of them. That
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: are towards the top end of the ownership, but a
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: few notable players like a Ben Griffin at seventy eight
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars. Being at eighteen and a half percent ownership
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: is like the donkey chok of all donkey chok if
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: you're looking at a round two showdown slates, so like,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: you won't see me ever playing a guy like Ben
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: Griffin for round two. Not to say that they don't
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: get there, Like we've had guys that run the table
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: rounds one and two and had like five strokes leads,
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: you know, heading into the weekend, but they're extremely rare,
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: and for that reason because more often than not they
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: don't end up getting there. In back to back days,
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: I try and fade a lot of those kind of
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: a player. So Ben Griffin would be an example of
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: that sort of guy. And Andrew Novak is also thirteen
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: and a half percent owned in the seven K range,
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: and Akhavtiya a little bit over thirteen percent in that
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: seven K range, which I know compared to these other
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: like eight, nine and ten K guys, it doesn't look
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: that drastic. Just remind you these are the top eleven
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: high stoned players in my projections for round number two, Like,
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: compared to the other seven K guys a Novaka Batia,
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: they're three, four, sometimes even five six times higher rowns
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: than their peers around them. And you know, Ben Griffin's
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: even more so Chalk compared to some of the other
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: guys at the top end of the seven K range.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: That's why those kind of players more often than not,
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: like seventy to eighty ninety percent of the time, are
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: gonna be players that I'm excluding from my player poll.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: But it's also worth noting that of the like nine
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: to ten K guys that we have towards the top here,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: that there's a handful that I am playing that are
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: towards the top end of ownership. So it's not to
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: say that these high owned guys are players that you
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: can't use in your lineups. It's just that if you're
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: going to you have to keep in mind that they
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: are carrying that kind of steam because depending on the
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: contest you're entering, if it's a cash or a smaller
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: field single entry, then maybe it's not the biggest deal.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: But if you're playing in a contest that has over
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: one thousand entries, the large old GBPS that have five
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: to ten thousand plus entries in most cases, then it
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: becomes a real problem if your guys are twenty to
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: twenty five percent. And I mean, you can see all
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: the candidates on this list here that are getting that
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: ownership of the guys that played well today, And just
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: as I mentioned before, remind yourselves as well that golf
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: is an extremely variant sport and that we've only seen
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: eighteen holes. And I know I use like the NFL
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: Showdown comparison to maybe give you guys some perspective, but
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: it's true, we've only seen one out of the four rounds.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: So if you're using the shots gain metrics from today
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: like it's the absolute gospel, then you're doing it wrong.
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: You're not approaching the slate the right way. So we
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: are going to go through the shots gained metrics. We're
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: going to talk about how to build a player pool.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: But the reason why I wanted to go through the
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: ownership before we do so is that this factor, the
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: game theory, trying to get different to the rest of
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: the field is the most important thing that we have
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: for tomorrow's slate. Whether can sometimes trump ownership at times,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: especially when it looks like it's going to be a
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: massive advantage. I don't see that for round number two.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: In this kind of scenario though, where we don't have
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: a weather edge. It's all about the game theory, and
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: you know, you can use the shots, game metrics. You
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: can find some ball striking poppers, short game regression candidates,
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: course history guys, high upside players to throw into your lineups.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: But if they're low owned, then that makes them great plays.
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: If they're high owned and they have those things going
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: for them, then you might have to think twice before
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: using them in your lineup. Since, just to give you
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: that perspective of these top level players, I think there's four,
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: maybe even five of these eleven guys that I'm using
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: in lineups, so like there are a few of them,
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: I think it's four of the eleven that I'm using
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: in my one fifty max fool. If you're only playing
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: a handful of lineups, so let's say like three to twenty,
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: not when fifty, like somebody like myself, you might only
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: want to play two, maybe three at most of these
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: top eleven players. And you know, you don't have to
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: be overly contrarian about it. If you wanted to, you
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: could fade all eleven of these players and really take
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: that kind of a stand, but that'd probably be overdoing
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: it a bit, so I would say, you know, pick
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: your stands up top, have conviction plays because of these
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: top level players. By the way, some of them have
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: really really good stat profiles heading into round two, so
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: you know there's a few that you might be able
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: to squeeze in there. But just keep that in mind
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: that they're the highest zoned players on the slate. And
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: you know, just past this thirteen percent mark, you start
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: to see more of those like seven eight K guys
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: sneaking in there. It gets extremely important to fade that
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: chalk the further down the board that you go. And
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: I know we don't have any like six K guys
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: up here, but there are a few six K players
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: that are close to ten even a little bit over
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: ten percent ownership for round number two that are like
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: automatic fades for me, because you know, the seven K
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: guys are borderline in a few cases, like there might
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: be one guy like Chalky Guy in the seven K
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: range that you see in my player pole for round
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: number two. Six K range though it'll be zero, like
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: there's just no chance in hell that on a single
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: round slate like you have for tomorrow, then I'm going
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: to play a chalky six K guy and showdown. That's
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: like the biggest cardinal sin that you could possibly make
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: when build holding lineups. So up top you can have
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: your standard too, but down low, i'd recommend getting as
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: different as you possibly can because they're all slapticks. They're
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: all guys that don't project that well to begin with,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: So if you're gonna have to play them in twenty
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: five thirty percent of your lineups to get that leverage,
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: that's most likely not the best idea because there's a
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: reason why they're in the six K range. There's a
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: reason why they're towards the bottom end of the pricing.
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: If they were a half good player, a consistent guy
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: that you saw showing up reliably on tour, they wouldn't
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: be a sixty two hundred dollars golfer. I mean, that's
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: just the fact of the matter here, right. There's no
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: one on the site that is that mispriced at this
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: point that you'd have to play them in the six
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: K range even if they're ten percent owns. So that's
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: why having projections like I have on my Patreon page,
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: or of course on the ship at Nation website, which
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: is of course the site that we're on here, the
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: best in the industry for my money, especially when it
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: comes to covering all the different sports out there. It's
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: why having a website where you can rely on those
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: ownership projections is so important because that's where the big
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: edge comes when you're playing a round two and three
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: showdown because of the variance that's involved here. But now
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: that we moved on from the ownership we're going to
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: go through some player pool stuff. So if there's anyone
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: that you want me to deep dive and go through
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: the shots gain metrics on, feel free to go ahead
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: and let me know. After we go through a few
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: of the categories. I want to point out here is
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: when we're going to do some of those deep dives,
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: So let me actually refresh this just make sure that
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: all the shots gain metrics are exactly up to date.
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: After Nick Taylor and his partner finished that last hole,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: and we'll get rolling on some of those player deep dives.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: So where I like to start on these slates is
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: shots Gained ball striking, and you can see the number
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: one shots Gained approach player all it was Colin more
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: Kawa before it was my guy, but shots gained ball striking,
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: it's still calling war Kawa at number one on that list,
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: so I bet him out right this week is one
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: of my core plays and whatnot. The shots gained profile
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: is about as consistent as you could possibly once. But
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: he's going to be mega talking in round two showdowns,
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: so you know, just like a Shane Lauer here as well.
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: He's at T four. He was relatively popular heading into
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: the main slate too. This stat prole is fantastic. I mean,
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: he's a great course fit. There's just it almost looks
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: like it looks like all positives when it comes to
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: trying to play this guy other than the game theory
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: component with both of these sort of a player. So
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: if you're going to use a call more Kava as
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: Shane Lowery, you know, do so knowing that you're gonna
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: have to get different elsewhere in your lineup. And I'll
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: say that out of those top two players that I'm playing,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: at least one of them in my lineups above, Caley
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: had a really good stat profile hitting into round two.
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: And the reason why we're starting with the shots gained
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: ball striking here is that that combines you're off the
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: team approach stats. That's what shots gained ball striking is.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: It's just a combination of those two categories. Players that
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: gain in the ball striking categories can normally continue that
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: from round to round. And I actually know we had
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: the question from Steven before about like tea green stats.
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: I think tea green stats are useless. Like there are
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: a few courses I guess where like putting doesn't matter,
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: and you give you shots gained t to green is
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: like kind of a shortcut to get to those other
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: three stat categories. But the category that you really want
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: to hone in on would be the ball striking categories. I,
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: like you said, are off the t PUSS approach together,
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: because your golf swing, how you're hitting the golf ball
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: is by far the most consistent part of golf from
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: round to round. In fact, like you know, I am
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: in a testament to this myself because over the last
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: few months I've been striping the ball and in fact,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: over the last few rounds, I've added like five to
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: even ten yards distance to my clubs, and it's been
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: a positive momentum for like the last two three months
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: for me, and you can kind of feel that with
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: your golf swing. You don't have to think about it
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: as much when you're starting to get into that kind
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: of a groove. These tour players have that same kind
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: of stuff happen. And you know, if you play a
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: lot of golf yourself, you probably know what I'm talking about.
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: You can get into ruts as well. There are times
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: when the ball striking isn't going your way, and you know,
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: Sahet Thagala has kind of fell into that this year.
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: Max Homa, for example, right he fell into a rout
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: with that ball striking for four or five months. Even
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: at some point last year, he's starting to finally come
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: out of it, looks like for Max Oma. That's why
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: the ball striking categories are so important to look at,
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: and why also the short game categories. So short game
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: shots gained short game that is, shots gained around the
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: green plus shots gained putting, So the other two categories
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: we have. That's the more variant part of golf because
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of luck involved when it comes to
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: holding putts, holding chips especially, A lot of that is
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: almost just pure luck. When it comes to shots gained
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: around the green, end up, especially on the greens too.
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: You'll hear players all the time talk about how they
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: were hitting good putts that were setting themselves up in
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: perfect positions for their entire round, and they just couldn't
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: get anything out of it. They couldn't make any of
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: those birdie putts, those five to ten footers that are
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: close to fifty to fifties. In a lot of cases,
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you're making the fifty fifties, you're gaining
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: two to three shots gained putting. I mean, that's like
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: an extra four birdies right there that you could potentially
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: be making, which is in a lot of cases down
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: to the luck of the draw. Because part of the
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: reason for it, by the way, it's not just the
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: fact that putting is more fickle. It's a little bit
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: more touch based. That's why there's more variance to it.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: But it has to do with the golf course itself.
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: You have bumps on the greens. As the day goes on,
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: there's more bumps. That's another factor why sometimes the morning
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: with will play a little bit easier than the after dude,
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: is because there's not as many bumps on the surface.
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: But even when they have a perfectly manicured surface at
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: like seven point fifty in the morning. You're not going
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: to get a perfect role every single time. It's these
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: courses that the tour players are using are better than
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: most at doing so. Your local munis, the courses that
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of us play on us mere mortals that
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: are playing golf have even more variants when it comes
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: to actually making putts. But even the best courses in
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: the world Augusta, National, et cetera, you still get that
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: sort of an aspect to it. So that's why these
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: categories you tend to. You don't ignore them, right, It's
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: not like it's a data point that you completely throw out.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: It's just that when we go over here to the
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: shots gained putting category and we take a look at
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: the top end of the list, I wouldn't count on
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: these guys to be gaining two to three shots gained
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: putting for the entire event. There are always exceptions to
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: the role. They're very notable when they happen. So, for example,
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: a Maddy Schmid like that was an insane putting performance,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: sim going out there for three of the four days
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: and gaining all those strokes putting. But what happened on
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: Sunday right, he fell off a bit like you'd expect
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: for Schmiden. In fact, if we take a look at
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: Maddi schmid today, you'll see even more of that regression happening.
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: He lost both around the green and with the putter.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: It wasn't even just the putter last time out, by
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: the way, it was also the around the green that
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: he was gaining with in almost every single round. It
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: comes around real quickly with the around the green and
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: the putting compared to what you have with your golf swing.
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: So that's why we treat these categories a little bit differently.
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: So for example, these guys towards the top of both
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: the putting and the around the green list are guys
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: that I kind of hold it against it a little bit.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: It's a massive red flag to see that. So for example,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: Ben Griffin, he gained like six stroke short game, Like
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: I do not see that happening very often. A Nick
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Taylor gaining over nearly four and a half strokes short game,
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: that's not gonna happen a lot of rounds out there.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: Novak gains near the three stroke short game. Same thing
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: with Sebu Kim and Sebou right especially with the potter.
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: He's not used to gaining two strokes out there for rounds.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: These sort of guys, it's not like they're unusable, but
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: especially if they're chalky, So like a Novak ci Wu,
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: Nick Taylor of Ben Griffin, you're not gonna see me playing.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: Those guys also include a Max Homa in that same
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: sort of thing. He gained about two and a half
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: strokes between the short game categories. You're gonna see me
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: playing the guys that are a little bit more ball
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: striking heavy, So it's look at the top end of
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: the around the green list. These guys also probably do
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: for some regression, So Tony Finow, he chipped in a
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: little bit more than you'd like to see. Mackenzie Hughes
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Adekie Matziama, and yeah, so this is the stat profile,
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: by the way, right we had the question about him
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: losing ball striking but gaining tea green, it's because he
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: gained a bunch of strokes around the green. So this
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: is not the best stat profile. In fact, you know,
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: this would probably be like a three and a half
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: of four out of ten because he's losing in the
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: two most important categories and the only part of his
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: game that was remotely good was him trying to save
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: par when he was out of position. I will say, though,
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: I am playing Hideki Matsiama in my round two lineups
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: because there's always the or he could factor. And the
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: thing that I think makes Adeki Matsiyama gud bounce that
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: candidate is that he shot about the field average plus two.
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: That's nothing to be ashamed of. He's a player that's
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: played extremely well here before. He's a winner at Mirfield Village.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: He is a bunch of top five top tens as
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: well when he hasn't won around this kind of a
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: golf course. And he's been volatile this year. He's had
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: some down weeks, he's had some down rounds, and he's
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: had some events where he's looked lights out, literally unbeatable
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: the first event of this year, for example. So Matsiyama
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: at T thirty one, he's a player that I would
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: use as a high upside player because of the kind
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: of results that he's had here. You can also say
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: that he's like a course history guy that I'd be using,
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: but the stat profile not the reason for getting to
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: that sort of play. And you know, if you're going
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: to take a chance on one of these guys that
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: maybe got lucky around the green, you have to have
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: a reasoning for wanting to do it right. Like, for example,
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: if Hideki had never played here before and he had
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: no good course history, there's little to no chance I'd
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: probably play them tomorrow. Like you'd have to have some
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: extra reason to overcome that kind of a stat profile,
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: and in some cases you can find that. In most cases,
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: you probably won't be able to overcome that on a
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: lot of the players that you're going through. So the
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: other thing to also mention with the shots game metrics,
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: and it's why I think Dickie Mantsiama is so perfectly
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: playable for round number two is we've only had eighteen
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: holes at this point. So while it's nice to find
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: some of these ball striking poppers like we have here
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: in the top five, top ten, they're gonna be steamed up.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: You're not going to be the only one, first of all,
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: that's looking at the ball striking list and trying to
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: find some of these guys to feed into your lineups.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: But you're going to be sharing them because of that,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: with maybe an extra two to five percent of the field.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: So it's not to say that it has to be
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: like the exactly what you're looking for. In fact, my
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: favorite thing to do with this ball striking list is
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: just to go a little bit further down. So like,
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: you know, these top level guys, sure they played the
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: best golf today, but they're also going to be the chalk.
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: But if we go down just a little bit further
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: to these guys that gained closer like two two and
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: a half strokes ball striking like Patrick Can'tley is not
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: going to be as steamed up as some of the
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: other nine K players are, and Eric Coole, he's going
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: to be higher round than most in the six K range,
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: but he's not going to be like ten to twelve
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: percent os. I've gotten closer to about seven percent owners
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: for your round two showdowns, so that's pretty doable at
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: that kind of number. But if you continue to go
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: down the list here, like these guys closer to one
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: and a half, the one to two shots gained range
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: in this entire like window that we're seeing year, we're
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: all playable in my opinion as well. And the aspect
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: that I think it makes some better place for around
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: two is that they're not going to get that extra
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: two to five percent ownership. So whether it shots gained
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: ball striking, you can look at regular shots gained approach
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: if you would like as well. Harry Higgs, by the way,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: look at that, my guy that got old Big Rig
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: had himself an iron day today. I don't know if
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: I'd count on it multiple days in a row, but
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: if we can get him through the cut line, could
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: be a moving day play if he falls off a
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: little bit tomorrow, especially if he can keep up that
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: kind of iron play. But the putting regression probably gonna
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: come for my guy. He's a lot of fun to watch,
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: but a lot better than I thought he'd do for
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: round number one. In fact, I did one of my
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: buddies took him for like the over plus one. Thought
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: he'd shoot like plus two, plus three or worse, which
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: I couldn't blame him for taken with the plus two
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: scoring average. But geez Louise, he hit his irons well.
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: So I didn't play Harry Higgs myself, but the kind
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: of guy that you could consider adding to a few lineups.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: And actually, let me make sure I'm not putting out
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: some fake news with the Harry Higgs stuff. There so
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: one second, because there's a chance that I just over
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: over looked that and he's actually in my playera pool.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: So just give me ten seconds while I bring out
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: my sheet and confirm that. Yeah, so yeah, he's not
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: in my player apole, just like I thought for tomorrow.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: But I mean, with that three and a half shots
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: gained approach, I couldn't blame you for taking that approach yourself.
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: It's a catch up on chat, see what's going on
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: with you guys, and then we're gonna talk about some
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: line of construction and stuff as well. So where we
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: leave off, So we had the Nick Dunlop comments, it
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: looks like minus seven realistically might be winning this thing.
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: Pars and wold feel like the next few days. Yeah,
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: I think, especially with the weekend forecast that we have
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: right now, that I think you're right, and that's not
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: too far off what we normally have at this golf tournament.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: Something close to ten under par is about the sweet
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: spot for the memorial, and considering that it's already playing
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: two over par, like, I think maybe even worse than
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: that could take this home, like a minus four, a
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: minus five. A lot of that's gonna depend on Scotti shuffler.
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: It's gonna depend on your more collas how they play
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: over the next few days. I hate to point out
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: Ben Griffin and like top crap about him, but like,
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: I don't see him shooting even par the next three days.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: Like he's probably gonna shoot a couple over par you'd
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: think at the best over the next three rounds. We'll
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: see how it shakes out. I think it'll be fun
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: either way. Sick Brazerman has to have amounts of bounce
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: back asking for an overexposed friend, Oh sucks to hear
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: that you're overexposed, because I know he shot like plus
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: six today or something. But yeah, I think he's a
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: good bounce back candidate. I'm using them in my round
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: two showdown lineup, so I hope he does have that
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: bounce back. I have him in some main slate exposure
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: as well as we touched on yesterday. But four shots
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: gained lost putting feels like something that has to turn around.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: Because if you guys have seen Max Grazerman's stats on
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: bent grass we do have vent grass screens this week,
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: he gains point nine shots gain to putting per rounds.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: So this round today wasn't just four strokes into the negative.
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: It was five strokes below his baseline on the surface.
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: So I think that that is enough to just use
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: them as a GPP flyer. I don't know if we
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: could count on it though, because you know that regression
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: doesn't always happen. But is he gonna put better than
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: that minus four? For sure? Like you just, he's not
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: gonna lose four shots gain to putting very often, especially
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: on this type of grass. Let's see you said post
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: and left the putter at home. Yep, he probably did.
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: Let's see, let's look at the stats to see if
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: they back that up. I think they do. Yeah, he
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: lost three point four shots gained putting. That's not gonna
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: happen very often. And I'm playing them as a bounce
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: back candidate. And like raizermen's the same kind of way,
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: Like he lost almost four shots gained putting. Those guys
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: that are elite tier putters that do that are players
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: that I'll use all day and showdown. Now, if that
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: was like a gen ram a player, guess Seohn Robs
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: maybe not the best example. Let's go old Scotti Scheffer.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: Let's go Scotty from three years ago. Right, that's allergic
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: to making putts. Do you think he's going to balance
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: back from losing all those strokes? Maybe not so much
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one, but now right, a Scotti Scheffer
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: that's a top fifteen putter on the PGA Tour, you
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: probably would think you'd turn it around after having that
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: sort of a day. So it kind of depends on
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: the player that you're looking at end up their stats
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: on the greens for the year. Connors and Pendrith deep dive.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: Let's do it. So Connors I knew had a decent
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: stat profile. He gained off a tegue, gained a little
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: bit on approach, but it was about a neutral in
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: the short game categories. This is a six out of
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: ten right here in terms of stat profile. It's not
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: anything that overly wows you. You know, one point four
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: shots gained ball striking is it's solid, but it's not
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: two and a half to four shots gained like you
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: had for some other players. But the beauty of that
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: and it's like one of those guys where you scroll
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: down the ball striking list a little bit and you
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: find that lower ownership, it's gonna be a much sneakier
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: play than some of the other nine k guys, so
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: I like the ownership component. He's more of like a
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: GPP play for me. I prefer some of the other
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: guys around him if I'm going in a single entry
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: like for example, Patrick Cantlay is somebody that I'd rather
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: have in a single entry lineup. Cantlay had really good
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: approach day also gained off the tea as well, but
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: Patrick Cantlay had a lot more putting regression to do.
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's one of the best putters at this
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: golf course of all time. He averages like one and
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: a half shots game putting around at Mierfield Village. He
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: obviously has one year before he's had a ton of
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: success outside of his wins around a Mierfield Village. I'd
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: prefer to go with Cantlay as he just projects a
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: little bit better. But a Connor's in a GPP format
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: where it's not about projection as much. The ownership rate
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: getting different to the field matters a little bit more.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: That's where I might go with a guy like a
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: Corey Connors. But I think both are excellent plays both
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: in my player poll and who is elem On Pendrith?
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: You wanted me to go through. Let's see, I don't
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: know that one off the top of my head. He
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: did lose about two strokes putting. He gained two strokes
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: on approach. This is a good short game regression candidate.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: You know, the point eight strokes around the green, that's
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: not really that much of a factor either direction. I
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: do want him to be better off the tee. He
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: hit sixty four percent of his fairway, so I'm guessing
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: he had a penalty shot at some point. That's why
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: he was into the negative there. Let's double check on that.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: Maybe not. I'd have to see his actual scorecard on
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: these bogies to see if any of them were water balls.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: But if he cleans up the off the t play,
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: he's normally gaining a half a stroke to a stroke
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: in that category. Is even just a neutral with the putter.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: I like what you're doing with Taylor Pendrith. So yeah,
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: I think a sneaky good play for tomorrow. I'd say
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: in both of those, he said, Fleega looks like a
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: slim dunk. His approach was incredible. Outside of losing two
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: on fifteen, see a good call. These guys that hit
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: water balls. Hole twelve was one today where you saw
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: a lot of people in the water losing two two
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: and a half strokes to the field. Yeah. Especially, I
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: mean that whole alone probably took away at least one
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: one and a half strokes on approach, and he still
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: gained one point street on one point six in that category.
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: I tend to agree with you there. I mean, he's
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: got a good court's history around here. The issue with
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: a Fleetwood, though, and it's not a massive issue, but
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: it's at least worth pointing out, is that he is
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: going to get some ownership. I've got him as one
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: of the more popular plays towards the top end of
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: the board. I know we pointed that out before. So
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: if you're going to use him just like a more Kaba,
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: just like some of the other guys that are getting
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: ownership in that nine to ten k range, you just
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: have to keep that in mind when you're going through
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: your builds. And I have plenty of those guys in lineups.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: I just always give that little bit of an asterisk
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: so that everyone knows in they're building deep dive on
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: col and Fox. So real quick, Eric Cole, first, my
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: guy from down here in my area in Florida. He
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: gained two point six strokes on approach but lost with
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: the putter, just like Pendrith. I mean it's the same
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: exact stat profile pretty much where he gained a lot
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: on approach, just needs to be a little cleaner off
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: the tee. Yeah, it's a six and a half out
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: of ten, even a seven out of ten stat profile.
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: And then who was the other one was Eric Cole
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: and Ryan Fox? Who I love Ryan Fox this week.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: I thought he was a good low wound pivot that
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: you could take in the six k range. He gained
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: on approach, she was about a neutral. He gained a
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: stroke short game today. Also needs to clean it up
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: off the tee. So yet they off the tee is
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: a huge part of all these players games, especially the
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: last three that we've gone through. They've you know, kind
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: of held them back. And I've got to say, like
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: a Ryan Fox, a Taylor Pendrith, losing strokes off the
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: tee is not going to happen very often. So it
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: is a slight red flag because your swing can be
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: pretty consistent from round to rounds. But I will say
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: that a Fox, a Pendrith and normally drive it a
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: lot better than we saw today. So if anyone's going
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: to bounce back overnight, kind of figure it out on
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: the range and then take it to the golf courts tomorrow.
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: You know, I'd much rather have a Ryan Fox and
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: a Pendrith versus you know, a Snutecker or Matt Koocher
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: for example, that's losing off the tee. They're not going
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: to figure it out, like there's a reason why they're
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: losing strokes off the tee. A Fox a Pendrith, They've
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: just got to hit more fairways. It seems to be
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: able to go out there and pull that off. So yeah,
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: i'd say probably closer to like a five and a
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: half a six out of ten with this stat profile,
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: just because the off the tea play was a little
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: bit worse compared to those other te players, but still
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: a better than average stat profile, especially for a guy
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: that I think, or at least I have an affinity
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: for this kind of golf course. Not sure what the
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: ownership percentage would look like since he's only six point
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: eight K, but Pavone is kind of interesting. Yeah, low ownership,
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you that much. He's I believe sub five
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: percent in my projections, and you're spot on I mean
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: the stat profile is exactly what you're looking for a
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: player that is due for some short game regression. I mean,
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: losing nearly three strokes in those two categories is something
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: that's not going to happen that often. The one thing
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: I'll say about Pavone is that he is a little
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: conservative for my liking. If you take a look at
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: the Birdie a Better percentage list this year, he's like
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: number like one sixty something, maybe even like the number
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: one seventy something on tour. When it comes to posting
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: birdies or better, that is an issue for Showdown for me,
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: just because it is so tied to the actual amount
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: of birdies that you're making. I mean, Draftking scoring. If
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: you take a look at how it's broken down for Showdown,
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: it's all about the and streaks that you make. I mean,
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: Bogi's are actually okay in this kind of format, especially
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: if you're making like five six birdies in that round.
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: So I'd say he's a six and a half, maybe
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: even a seven out of ten. Just let's hope he
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: has an aggressive round, right, Like, if you're gonna use
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: him in your lineups, you're gonna have to hope he
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: pinhunts a little bit more than usual. How are we
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: feel about Fox and mac So Fox five and a half,
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: six out of ten. We just went through that one,
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: but let's go through Bobby macfree as well. So well, McIntyre,
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: we played really well today. Shot minus one one of
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: the few PM guys that you saw really ball striking
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: it well. He gained two and a half strokes ball striking,
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: did gain strokes with the putter. But this has to
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: be like a six and a half a seven out
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: of ten with the stat profile because the two most
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: important categories that we're looking for in these players. You know,
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: he gained those two and a half strokes and the
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: short game he did lose around the green to kind
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: of offset that putter there. It's not like he carried
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: himself in that category. So yeah, McIntyre, I've got a
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: pretty positive sentiment on I'd say the unfortunate part though,
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: that because he shot under par and because he had
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: such a good round today, is not gonna be the
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: only one that's playing him, So keep in mind that
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: he'll be a little bit higher owned than the guys
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: around him. Master two Gloves killed most of your lineups.
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: Master two Gloves don't know why you're calling a master
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: if he screwed your lineups. But I respect the lack
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: of vitriol that you have for mister two gloves. But
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: he might turn it around for you tomorrow. I wouldn't
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: count out your lineups quite yet. He said, possible post
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: and finds the putter, Yeah, for sure. I'm not those
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: getting real dry, sorry about that, but yes, he could
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: for sure find the putter. Those guys like Grazier Man.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: Same thing is, is he guaranteed to gain a bunch
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: of strokes putting? No? But what it surprised me in
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: the least if he gained three three and a half
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: strokes putting, not at all, especially like a guy like
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: Posting that's known as a good putter. Grazierman, same thing.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: You know, we went through a few other examples on
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: that board too. As long as they're not a crappy
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: putter heading in, I always give those guys a chance
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: to bounce back. If you're Tony Feenales your old Scottis shufflers,
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: maybe not so much. Yeah, Birdy, your better percentage, by
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: the way, let's just go ahead and bring that up.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: I always like to kind of give you guys a
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: reminder that the BIRDI your better list when I can,
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: so let's just go ahead and do that real quickly.
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: It only takes like thirty seconds to a minute to
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: do so Birdy your better percentage. I know we talk
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: about the shots gain metrics all the time when it
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: comes to these players. I use course history to find
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: a lot of my plays. I use high upside players,
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: and this is where the high upside players come in.
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: If you're looking for DraftKings scoring, you're trying to optimize
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: on that kind of projection, this should be where you
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: start your research if you're trying to find guys for
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: bounce backs. Because you know the shots gain metrics, they
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: give us a really good sense for how people are
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: playing right now, especially if you're trying to find like
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: a conviction play. It helps you with trying to find
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: your player pool when you're doing that. But if you're
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: trying to find guys to like bounce back, then use
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: the birdy a better list. And I guess it's worth
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: noting out Justin Thomas is number one in the world
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: this year, So if you want to bounce that candidate
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: for somebody that's going to be super low owned Justin
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: Thomas really really looks like a good play for round two,
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: especially if you need to get wild with your nine
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: to ten k option. But except Straka Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler,
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: you're going to see towards the top end of that list,
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna point out a few players that kind of
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: surprise with how high they are here, like a Botia,
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: Rory Sanjay. No one's really going to be surprised by
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: seeing those kind of guys, but a Cam Davis, Maddy
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: Schmid ranking a little bit higher than you might expect.
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: Sam Burns hasn't even had a good year and he's
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: number thirteen in the category. Didn't mean to click on
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: him and bring him up, But let's keep going through
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: it a bit. You've got can't lay trying to find
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: guys that are in the field that are maybe a
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: little bit surprising that we could use. But there's Grazerman, right,
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: and I know he didn't have the best round number one,
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: but if he finds a putter, he's normally making a
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: whole bunch of putter, a whole bunch of birdies out there.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: Wyndam m clark at number twenty eight in that category.
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: Davis Thompson at number thirty. Of those players that we
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: just pointed out, I mean, let's see one, two, three, four,
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: or I believe I'm playing every single one of those
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: guys that we just pointed out. So I guess I
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: just pointed out a lot of my player pool. And
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: I'm not talking about the top guys, like the top four.
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: I'm not playing every single one of those, but like
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: especially like the Cam Davises, like your Schmid's, like these
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: sort of players down here. I think I'm playing all
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: of them, but maybe one of those guys in my
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: lineups around number two. So if I'm gonna especially like
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: a Davis Thompson, a Wyndham Clark, like they played absolutely
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: terrible today, no one's gonna use them. And if you're
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: gonna take a sean to dark on a player like
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: there is much worse things to do than to take
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: the guys that make the most birdies. Like if that's
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: where the DraftKings scoring is being derived from, then why
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: wouldn't you be taking a look at this birdie or
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: a better lesson. I feel like when I say this,
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: it like puts off a light bulb in people's minds.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: They're like, oh, shit, maybe I should be considering the
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: guys that are more aggressive in my lineups when it's
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: only eighteen holes that we're playing with. And by the way,
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: that's why Scotti Shuffler is such a better play for
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: mainstet than what he is for Showdown. Not to say
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: that he's a bad play for Showdown tomorrow. I'm using
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: Scotty Shuffler some of my Round two Showdown lineups, but
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: he's a better play for main Sleep because he's more
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: of that like slow and steady kind of player, Like
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: he has nuclear rounds from time to time, but it's
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: usually him shooting like minus three minus four that you're
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: seeing out there on tour. These guys like Wyndham Clark,
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: Davis Thompson, I mean, the whole top end of the
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: list that you see towards atop and into the Berdie
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: Better list are guys that go nuclear at times. And
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: sure Scotty makes a whole lot of birdies himself, but
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: he's only number four in the category, like you would
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: think he'd be number one with all the wins this year,
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: especially the recent form over the last few weeks. Justin
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: Thomas has been better this year in that category, so like,
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: I think it's kind of humbling for guys like Scottie
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: Shuffler when you look at this category, like even a
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: Rory like Rory fantastic stuff having one of the best years.
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: He's played some pretty hard events too, so that's part
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: of the reason Rory might be a little bit lower there.
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: But it makes less birdies for rounded than Harry Hall does.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: So like in a showdown format, guys at Harry Hall,
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: I know he's not playing this week, are worth their
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: weight in gold when it comes to using in lineup.
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: So consider that aspect too, years of the contest selection,
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: it looks pretty on par with what we've had for
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: the last month or so. My favorite contest would be
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: a lot of your single entries. So the big long
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: drive is twenty five k. The issue is, it's not
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: a massive issue, is that it's a little more top
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: heavy than I like though at a fifth to first place.
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: So it is five grand of that twenty five k
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: going to the winner, which does make for a good
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: first place prize, but it does make it a little
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: bit less sustainable for that top five, top ten this
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: five k long drive. So the slightly smaller contest is
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: also about twenty five twenty percent the first place, so
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: it's not the best payout structure, but the drive the
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: green is an eighth to first place, So I'm going
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: to be one fifty maxing this one for tomorrow, just
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: because it's a little bit lower to first, right, it's
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: not twenty percent. Whenever you have that slightly flatter payout structure,
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: the rest of the top five the top ten are
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: a lot more respectable. So for example, if I'm mentoring
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: seven hundred and fifty dollars of lineups, like, I will
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: as a five dollars one fifty max right here if
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: I finish anything in the top six, pretty much, because
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: now I'm not gonna only cash one lineup for five
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars, right, It'll be like probably at least at
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: least I hope twenty five to thirty lamps, and I'm
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: cashing out of one hundred and fifty at the very
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: least for tomorrow. If I win this five hundred and
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: then have those other lamps cashing, I'm pretty much ensuring
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: profit by having that top ten finish, as opposed to
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: other GPPs that are a little bit more top heavy,
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: where maybe you only cash like a seventh or eighth
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: place finish, and you might end up negative on the
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: day if they're only paying you like two hundred dollars
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: with that less flat payout structure. So that's why the
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: first preate on the first place prize matters so much.
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: And it's not just first, right, you gotta look at
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: second third, but we kind of generalize it based on
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: what you see with that first place prize. But these
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: single entries, like this is the two hundred dollars driver.
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: This one is also twenty percent to first place. These contests,
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: even though they are a little top heavy, when you're
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: only entering a getst like fifty five to a couple
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: hundred entries, it's so much easier to take down the
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: top five or act actually win one of those contests
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: that the majority of you guys should be playing in those, because,
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: like I said, I'm won fifty maxing this Drive of
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: the Green. So if you plan on entering like fifty
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: dollars of lineups, and you know you would take that
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: fifty dollars and enter ten lineups in here, but you've
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: got ten lineups versus my one hundred and fifty, And
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: I promise you I'm not the only one one fifty
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: Maxing this kind of contest, you're gonna have plenty of
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: pros that know what the hell they're doing when they're
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: entering their lineups that you're playing against with fifteen times
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: less lineups. So with that fifty dollars, what I would
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: do if that was my bankroll for that kind of
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: a round is I spread it out over three or
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: four different single entry so for example, and this is
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: how I would do it personally. It doesn't have to
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: be exactly what you choose to do. I'd enter this
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: thirty three dollars dog leg. It's thirty three dollars. It
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: is slightly over half of my payout structure, but this
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: would have to be my main lineup right out of
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: my fifty dollars bank roll. I'd enter that. I'd ntor
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: a completely different lineup into this twelve dollars albatross, so
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: that puts us at forty five dollars. And then the
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: last contest, I'd go with the five dollars single entry,
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: which they bury it on this list. It's gonna be
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: hard for me to find out there. It is the
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: five k caddy where it's also a really flat payout structure.
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: By the way, those three single entries that we just
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: went through are about ten to twelve percent to first place,
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: so even better than the big one hundred dollars two
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars single entries that are closer to twenty percent
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: to first place. I mean you have half of that
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: going to first and said right closer to that ten
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: to twelve percent. The rest of the top five is amazing. Like,
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: you finished in second, you're still winning three hundred dollars.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: That is sixty x your money. You would be thrilled
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: about that. In a five dollars contest you finished in
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: third place, which, by the way, against what is it,
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: twelve hundred entries here, it's not easy to do that,
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: but it is a realistic outcome. You win forty x
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: your money for doing that sort of thing. That's why
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: these contests are so much better. And like even if
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: it's a fifth place finish, let's not give you a
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: top to a top three, you're winning twenty extra money
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: if you finish in fifth place, whereas if you take
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: a look at some of those other contests, it may
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: only be like four to five x that you're winning
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: for that kind of structure. Because they're giving all the
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: money to the guy that finishes in first and really, guys,
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: and I like to point this out not to like
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: be a Debbie downer or be like an ass asshole
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: to certain people, but the people that play in like
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: the big payout contest are like the people that aren't
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: doing this for the right reason. Right. It's the people
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: that see fifty thousand to first place, that see ten
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: twenty thousand dollars payout structures and go ooh, I'm just
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: gonna go out there and go for that, right, And
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: it's not really the reason you should be playing ggadfs.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: If you want to do this long term, keep it
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: more sustainable, you know, have a bank roll that you
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: don't have to deposit every single week. It's important to
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: enter the right kind of contest. So enter for the
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: right reasons. Don't chase those massive payouts unless you're willing
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: to take on that kind of variance, Because, like I said,
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: there's one fifty maxers are playing against and let's be realistic,
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: beating seven thousand people, beating let's see what it is
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: in the driver Green, I think it was like what
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: eight thousand people? We find the exact number. Sorry, more
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: than that ninety five hundred entries. Actually they are entering
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: in that sort of contest. It's much harder to beat
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: those sort of builds than two hundred entries in a
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: single entry. So you just have to kind of keep
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: that in minds when you're building your lineups. Terms of
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: a line of construction, it's about making sure that we
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: get enough to differentiation into our lineups. So let's start
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: over there. So up top, guys like more Kawa a
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: let's see more ch hockey players like a Lowry are
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: going to be really tempting to want to get to.
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: But the players that I like just a little bit
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: more are the slightly sneakier option. So I know we
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: mentioned Corey Connors as a potential play, but at slightly
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: lower ownership and still setting up well stat wise, Like
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: he's a pretty good starting point. Now, ninety two hundred
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: dollars might be a little bit too cheap as your
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: first man in, but maybe you go, like, I can't
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: lay than Corey Connors as your second man in, so
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: maybe a little bit more of a balance start to
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: this lineup. They've got two guys that really set up
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: well with the stats, but aren't going to be twenty
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: twenty five percent shock and you're not really getting different
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: with these first two players, but at least you're not
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: corning yourself into a really high product ownership. When you're
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: moving on to your last four spots. It's gonna be
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: a lot more reasonable with these kinds of players as
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: opposed to going to guys that are like nine like
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: nine times high D And I guess this is a
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: bad example. With these nine K guys. It's guys that
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: are like twice the ownership in some cases, but you
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: get the idea of the guys that are the mega
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: chalk on this kind of slate, your next man in
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: is where you want to kind of start to get different.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: So even with this kind of lineup where we didn't
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: take like the super chalk towards the top, you want
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: to avoid some of the really high owned guys in
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: the AK range. So for example, a Siwu Kim is
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: good course history, he also sets up well with the
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: stats after round number one. I'd love to throw him
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: in there, but he's going to be higher rowned than
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: some of his peers in this AK range, So it
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: might make a little bit more sense to maybe go
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: to Ahdki Matsiama instead who DECKI we know is going
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: to be a lot lower owns probably maybe four even
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: five percent lower owns that what you have with Cebu Kim,
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: and he's the better long term player. He has just
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: as good a course history as what you have with
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: the Cebu Kim. So sure you're surrendering a little bit
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: of form after round number one, but remind yourselves that
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: it's only an eighteen sample size of the most variant
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: sport that we have when playing DFS. So let's throw
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: Hedecki in there as our next span in we're still
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: thinking about getting different. So like a Ben Griffin is
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: just an absolute no go. Even guys like a Harris
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: English a no go because they're going to be higher
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: round than a lot of their peers. And I like
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: Bud Colly for tomorrow his ball striking stats he lost
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: with the putter today. That's the exact kind of stat
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: profile looking for. But it's not the best idea of
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: if this is a large ol GPP lineup. Now, if
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: this was a single entry or even just like a
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: smaller GPP like a two to three max, a twenty
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: max that only has like five hundred to one thousand
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: entries that you're playing against, then go with bud calling
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: value by all means. In heck, even in the AK range,
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: maybe you don't even force in Headecki in that kind
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: of build. Maybe you do play your cebu you'r Danny
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: McCarthy that you wouldn't throw into builds. I think Denny's
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: a pretty decent bounce back candidate too. You get away
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: with that in that single entry, But in the largehow
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: GPPs where you're entering it gets ten to twenty times
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: more entries. That's where it's important to start making these
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: ownership decisions. So let's throw him in there rather than
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: CALLI we're gonna use a Sam Burns because he's gonna
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: be a little bit lower owns and in the large
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: show GBPS, guys like Novak Batia, who be pointed out
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: like thirteen to fourteen percent ownership, I'd rather favor a
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: player like an Alex norin instead, who's going to be
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: lower owns and projects just as good, if not better
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: than some of the other players around them, so they
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: can't build a whole lineup together. Even though this isn't
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: necessarily a build, I'll be using myself anyways, just because
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: it's against the DraftKings terms of service, but hopefully it
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: gives you guys a little bit of perspective into what
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: you should be thinking about in your builds and your
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: last man in. Here. You could probably get away with
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: using just about anyone as your last man in just
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: because there's not really any mega chalk at this seventy
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: three to seventy four hundred dollars range. But if you
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: really want to make sure that you're okay and not
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: gonna duplicate yourself and to get some added leverage, consider
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: another pivot as your last man in. I honestly don't
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: think you can go too overboard with your pivots in
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: rounds two and three Showdown. Not to say that you
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: have to have all pivots, but if you have five
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: six pivots in the lineup, I don't think you have
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: to shy away from that with how volatile Showdown can be.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: But if you want to add even more on top
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: of that, just taking another pivot to round it off
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: could leave some salary on the table as well. So like,
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: for example, if you went down here and you threw
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: and like a grazer, min is your last man and
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: leaving two hundred dollars on the table and taking somebody
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: that's gonna be low owned because he shot plus six.
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: Then I mean this lineup had virtually zero percent chance
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: of duplicating with anyone else, and you're still getting guys
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: that project ball across the board. And when your guys
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: hit let's say that you have a spike performance or
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: two in this lineup, you're not gonna be sharing them
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: with twenty twenty five percent of the field and getting
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: absolutely nothing out of it and somebody they consider guys.
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: And I don't think this has talked about enough when
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: it comes to that game theory, especially when you start
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: to get to like twenty five percent ownership. That's how
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: many lineups usually cash in large fold GPPs. So, for example,
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: if there's a guy that you absolutely have to have,
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: let's say that he scores like eighty fantasy points tomorrow,
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: which is completely unrealistic, just unrealistic in general for showdown.
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: But let's assume that somehow somebody scores eighty points. If
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: you have to and have any chance to go out
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: there in cash, if he's twenty five percent owns, you
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: literally have to have that guy to be able to cash. Right,
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: that's not the kind of scenario that you want to
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: be in where you have that guy he hits and
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: the whole cash line are just guys with that lineup
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: like that. I don't know, it's okay, you kind of
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: want that guy to go off, Like obviously hindsight after
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: the fact is like, oh wow, I wish I would
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: have played that guy. But even if you do, you've
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: done nothing for yourself, right, you're still playing against all
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: the guys that we're going to cash in him is
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: it's just trust me. When you're trying to find the
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: lower owned players. It's always important in golf. Game theory
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: is always the most important aspect when it comes to
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: building fantasy golf lineups. That's for mainslate, but when it
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: comes to showdown, just eighteen holes, multiply that by two
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: or three times, put it on steroids, give it the
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: Barry Bonds treatment for rounds two and three showdown without
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: any placement points in play. You really want to embrace
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: that even more where you can. So I'm gonna go
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: over any last second questions that you guys have for
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: me in the live chat, but outside of that, that
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: is all I've got for the round live stream smash
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: up like fund if you guys haven't already also subscribed
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: to the channel, so you guys don't miss any of
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: the content to come Round three and four. We're gonna
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: be doing the same thing for Saturday and Sunday, so
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: make sure to stop on Buy for all of that
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: content and for all your prop and betting needs. For
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: round two, you guys can check out my live stream
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: a little bit later on tonight. We're gonna be great
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: breaking down all the underdog and price pick stuff for
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: Friday's action. Gonna be going through stat averages, pin locations
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: for tomorrow as well, all to get you ready for
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: your exposure when it comes to prop betting. So underdog
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: and price fix people, sportsbook people that are betting matchups,
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: that kind of thing on the sportsbooks, stop on Buy
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: for that content as well. So it'll be at eight
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: thirty pm Eastern time, so just a little bit over
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: at half an hour from now. Any other questions you
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: have for fantasy, so let's say they come up over
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: the next ten to twenty minutes and you guys want
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: to ask them there on the prop live stream, feel
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: free to go ahead and do so. There as well.
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: But that's all we've got here for this live stream,
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: gonna touch on any of those last second questions. Best
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: of luck, I want to see a lot of your
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: names towards the top end of those GPPs tomorrow. Make
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: sure to join up to my patient page, the ship
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: it Nation page as well, so you guys can get
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: all the projections in content for Friday. Mine are already
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: posted on my page. I know the guys that ship
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: It Nation, if it's not already up themselves, are already
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: working hard at it themselves. The sweatiest of all tryhard.
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: So what you're gonna find here on the ship at
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: Nation channel, whether it's all their stuff, I mean, they've
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: got that long, proven track record for quite some time.
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of you guys are getting introduced
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: to me throughout these live streams and probably learning to
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: find a lot of that the same here. That's what
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: we pride ourselves on, right, We work the hardest of
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: anyone in the industry. We do all the showdown shows
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: where all these other sites just kind of sit on
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: their ass and don't do anything. If you guys want
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: people that are actually locked into all these showdown slates
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: playing a bunch of volume themselves are tuned into the
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: trends the meta at any given points when it comes
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: to playing pgadfs, and then that's what you're getting here
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: with the ship at Nation Crew, and is what I
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: have to offer with my website as well. So if
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: you haven't already joined up with the ship it Nation
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: crewer Mine, I'd recommend doing that as soon as humanly possible.
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: But outside of that, it's all for tonight spiel. So
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: let's see where we left off with any questions. Nick
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: says Posting is normally a good putter, but he's been
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: bad lately. Yeah, last few weeks though he's been great
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: with the putter, so it's a I guess it depends
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: on the sample size. But for his career, Nick, he
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: is a fantastic putter, one of the best that you
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: have out there. He said. Thagala and HOGI what did
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: they look like? Thagala he's coming back from injury, so
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: I do at least want to mention that with him.
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: But he lost off the team gained on approach, which
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: I've seen worse stat profiles from it plus two was
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: really impressive considering where he came from. And then your guy,
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: Tom Hogy. I know you love playing Tom more than
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: just about anyone else out there. He lost in the
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: ball striking categories, which is not something that you can't overcome.
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: But if you're going to use a HOGI even a
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: saw Hith Thigala, I kind of throw into the same
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: kind of scenario here, it'd be at slightly lower ownership.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: I think with saw Hiths you might get that low ownership.
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: But because Tom Hogy's T twenty three, he's going to
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: be averaged to maybe even slightly above the average ownership
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: at that portion of the board. So their stat profiles
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: for each one aren't the best, but it's not an
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: you can't condemn them either, right because just only eighteen holes,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: he said, you're pretty new to showdown. What do I
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: make of guys who shots gained cards are all over
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: the place, like a five out of ten, I'd say, like,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: I don't really hold it against those guys or give
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: them that much credit. Like let's say that they gained
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: off the team that they lost on approach, then gained
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: around the green, and then lost with the putter. If
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: it's like truly fifty to fifty like that where it's
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: like half and half on both sides. Then I don't
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: look at it as a positive or a negative. It's
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: more like, is this guy a high upside player? Is
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: he a good course history guy. If he's one of
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: those two things and he's low owned, which you have
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: to think, if his shots gained all over the place,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: he's probably decently low owned. He's at least not chocked
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: at that portion of the board, then yeah, you could
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: use those kind of players. But it's not really a
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: good or a bad thing. I'd say, he said more Kawa,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: the cut is back. He was throwing absolute darts, So
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: you're saying that his cut ball flights. That's massive, man.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: And I didn't get to see a lot of his round.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: I was running some errands while he was throwing darts,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: but you best know that I was following that shot tracker,
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: and I think what you said is spot on. I mean,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: if the shots gained back it up and it looks
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: like he's gonna go off. Was Sebu ripping darts? I
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: didn't see, but probably not. He at least said when
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: he smoked the cigarette a few weeks ago that it
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: was like a one off thing. But I don't know
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: if I believe him. With the whole Advil PM and
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: red Bull thing. He's he seems like a wild card.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: Who do I got winning after today? I'm still gonna
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: stick by Colin Moricawa. You know, he was the lowest
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: ODS guy that I took this week at fifteen to one.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: I know people out there probably got better numbers on Colin,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: but I'm stuck with hard rock bet so just is
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: what it is. When it comes to the fifteen to one,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: I'll stick with my gut on that, right. I won't
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: change my opinion, especially with his position at this point. Scotti, Scheffler,
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: though Lurkin, he's gonna be a tough one to beat,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: so probably one of those two. I'd say Fowler's been
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: right and hot in round two. If he could play
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: four round twos, he'd be golden. I mean, he played
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: really well today as well, So if you're saying he's
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: gonna build on that tomorrow, he could be towards the
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: lead heading into Saturday. That'd be kind of cool to
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: see again. Six birds for Ricky today to one hundred
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: percent agree and oh yeah, best of luck everyone. Uh,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: Like I said, any other questions that you weren't able
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: to get into the live chat here. You can't throw
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: them into my prop live stream a little bit later
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: on tonight. That's all I've got for the Round two stream.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: Best of luck, as I was saying, and uh yeah,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: gotta get ready for the next live stream, so always
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: see you guys a little bit later on tonight.