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Mike Jones: BNZ Chief Economist on the unemployment numbers expected today · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Right, Let's go to today's unemployment number, which we're going
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: to get at about quarter to eleven this morning, we'll
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: get the job's number. This is Q one. Unemployment expected
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: to hold around five point four percent, may tick up
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: slightly to five and a half. Still more people looking
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: for jobs and jobs available. Mike Jones, chief economist at
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: being in ZB with me this morning.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: Get a Mike, good morning.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: This is quarter one, so basically pre war. I mean
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: there'll be a bit of war, but mainly pre war.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, that's right. These numbers have been overtaken by
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: events a little bit. I think we'll see probably a
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: picture of a steadying but still pretty sluggish sort of
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: jobs environment from these figures.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Where are you picking it's going to peak unemployment?
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Well, it wasn't so long ago. We thought actually these
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Q one numbers would mark the peak, but of course
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: that's changed in light of events. We now think unemployment
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: probably drifts up over most of this year and peaks
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: set five point eight percent by the end.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Of the year. So when we're talking about a recovery
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: and sort of jobs, we're looking at twenty twenty seven.
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  Speaker 2: Now, that's I think what we are looking at. I
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: think that that picture of a recovery in labor market
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  Speaker 2: this conditions has proven elusive and in sliding into twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty seven. Of course, the labor market is the last
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  Speaker 2: shoe to drop. It does tend to lag the rest
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  Speaker 2: of the economy. So if we do see a bit
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  Speaker 2: of a steadying and economic growth over the second half
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: of this year, well that would pave the way for
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  Speaker 2: a better looking labor market yet next year.
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  Speaker 1: And is this number about an increase in the number
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  Speaker 1: of workers or is it about job losses?
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  Speaker 2: More the former, we actually do think we've got some
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  Speaker 2: job's growth in the court, not a whole lot, but
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  Speaker 2: an increase of zero point two percent. That would only
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  Speaker 2: actually be the second quarter in the last eighteen months
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  Speaker 2: in which you've got job's growth. But we don't think
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: that will be enough to offset the growth in the
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: labor supply through the quarter, so you still get a
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: list in unemployment or a slight nudge up and unemployment
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  Speaker 2: on our forecast to five and a half the season.
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  Speaker 1: Mike, how important is this number for our economy because
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  Speaker 1: the last time we spoke about it, well, the last
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: time we had a quarterly result. It's very much about
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: giving people confidence. I mean, if you know that if
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: you're looking for work and you know there's a job
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  Speaker 1: out there, or if you're in a job you don't
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: like and you want to move to a better one,
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  Speaker 1: or you want to get a pay raise, all those
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  Speaker 1: things are important for growth.
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  Speaker 2: Right, It's right, that's right, And I think the labor
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  Speaker 2: market has been in this sluggish, slow and low environment
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  Speaker 2: where there's been a bit of job's growth, but not
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  Speaker 2: a lot, as I say, not generally enough to offset
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: growth in the labor supply, and so that's meant that
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: opportunities to move has been a little bit more few
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  Speaker 2: and far between than we would like, and that's kept
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  Speaker 2: wage growth relatively low as well.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Mike, good to have you on the show. This morning
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  Speaker 1: is always Mike Jones Cheap Economist b n Z.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
• 3:05
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• 3:08
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