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Paramount Global Rankings & Earnings Season Ending - 11/18/24 · Paramount Wealth Perspectives

• 0:00
  Intro song game on.
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  Hello, everyone.
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  Welcome to paramount wealth perspectives.
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  Your go-to podcast for the latest updates on global markets and current economic events.
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  This is your host, Chris Coyle.
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  Each week we strive to bring you expert analysis on market trends, economic shifts.
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  And key financial developments from around the world.
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  Whether you're an investor business leader.
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  Or simply curious about the global economy.
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  Our podcast is here to keep you informed and ahead of the curve.
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  Now let's dive into the markets and explore what shaping the world of finance today.
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  Here with us today.
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  We have Scott Tremlett chief investment officer and managing partner at paramount associates, wealth management.
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  Scott.
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  Looking back to last week.
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  What are some major events you would like to highlight?
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  Thanks.
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  Chris us stock markets were all lower for the week with the biggest loser being the Russell 2000 falling over 4% after gaining over 8% the prior week.
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  Four sectors.
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  The biggest laggards were biotech, pharma, hospitals, semiconductors, home builders, and China technology.
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  Outperformers where again, financials as banks and life insurers.
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  Lead the way.
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  Only two sectors were up for last week, financials and energy.
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  Treasury yields were mixed.
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  It seems to me that there is a new floor on yields.
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  Now at a higher mark.
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  Since the presidential election.
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  The dollar also continued to strengthen.
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  Driving gold down over 4% for the week.
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  Economic reports were headlined by October's consumer inflation report and retail sales.
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  CPI.
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  The measure of consumer inflation.
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  I am referencing.
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  I came in as projected at 2.6%.
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  Year over year.
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  This did mark the first month over month increase in the number since March.
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  Any a streak of six months of the clients.
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  Shelter is stalling.
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  The pace of disinflation and is still up nearly 5% since October of last year.
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  We have one more CPI announcement.
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  Before the next fed meeting in December.
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  That's good to hear that inflation was in line with expectations, but I know a lot of people around the country have been impacted by the higher costs of shelter.
• 2:34
  I know you mentioned retail sales last week.
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  Where did those numbers come in?
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  Retail sales came in slightly higher than consensus, Chris.
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  Much of the strength was due to a large increase in motor vehicle sales.
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  Electronics and appliances also led the rise for the month of October.
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  It is estimated that much of the gains in motor vehicles and electronics.
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  Was associated with the hurricanes in the south.
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  The fed is noticing the strength of the economy.
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  And fed chair.
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  Paul said, quote, unquote.
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  The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in any hurry to lower rates.
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  I mentioned last week that by some estimates, we are only expected to get two rate cuts by the end of next year.
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  And now I am reading that the timing of the cuts maybe pushed to later in the year than first expected.
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  Maybe the fed will just take longer to even get to the two cuts.
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  I'm in that camp.
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  Fewer cuts and longer to get there.
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  But like the fed, my thoughts are data dependent.
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  And I also must keep an eye on policy change.
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  In 2025.
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  I would have to agree with you, Scott and also pal.
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  With retail sales coming in strong, we will have to see how the data continues to trend.
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  How did earnings look last week?
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  Well, Chris third quarter earnings season is nearing an end.
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  And the scorecard so far.
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  Is mixed.
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  As a Friday with 93% of the S and P 500 companies reporting.
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  75% of S and P companies have reported a positive earnings surprise.
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  And 61%.
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  Ever reported a positive revenue surprise.
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  And for the third quarter.
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  The year of a year earnings growth rate.
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  Is 5.4%.
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  It, this continues.
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  It'll be the fifth straight quarter of year over year earnings growth.
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  Those numbers sound pretty good.
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  But many earnings per share numbers are falling behind both the 5-year and the tenure averages.
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  In fact, the beats are slowing as companies reporting revenue, beets are only doing so on an average of 1.2% above expectations.
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  Again.
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  Below, both the five-year and 10-year averages.
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  Overall earnings revision momentum has declined into negative territory.
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  There was divergence within the numbers as well.
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  Depending on where firms sell their services.
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  According to FactSet.
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  For example, companies that generate more than 50% of sales within the U S have a blended growth rate of just 1.5%.
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  On the flip side, those firms that generate more than 50% of sales overseas.
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  Have a blended growth rate of nearly 13%.
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  This is buoyed by an Nvidia Pfizer alphabet and Metta whom all generate more sales overseas.
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  However, none of this is stopping investor optimism.
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  S last week was the second largest inflow of money into us stocks.
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  Since 2008.
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  At the same time, valuations in the U S maybe stretched.
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  With the highest forward price to earnings ratio and more than three years.
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  We will see how this all plays out.
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  But high valuations reductions and earnings revisions.
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  Lots of money coming in due to higher sentiment.
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  Um, as a contrarian.
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  One might say those are all cell signals.
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  Well, I know you have said to me that there are times to be a contrarian investor.
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  And times when not to be.
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  I'm sure our listeners and myself included would like to hear more on this in the future.
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  But for now, I wanted to ask you more about the paramount global rankings.
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  You had mentioned last week.
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  Can we please take some time to discuss these rankings further?
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  Of course, Chris.
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  Last week I did update the paramount global rankings.
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  The results do align with the earnings statistics provided earlier, showing that companies deriving over 50% of sales overseas.
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  Are experiencing higher earnings growth.
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  Here are my top five.
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  India, China, Brazil, Spain, and Canada.
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  The us came in at number six.
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  The us has been in the upper third for most of 20, 24, but only cracking into the top five in two months.
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  India has been the strongest economy in all months, but one.
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  India is an interesting case.
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  With manufacturing numbers that the rest of the globe is jealous of.
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  And over three years of consistent new order growth.
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  You add to that?
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  More working age, population growth than the rest of the world.
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  Combined.
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  You come up with an economic mixture that could lead to stable returns.
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  Incoming years.
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  I've been an investor in India and not China for some time.
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  Now.
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  Due to domestic consumption, particularly in the service sector.
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  India may be more insulated from tariff pain than China or Europe.
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  India's valuation is in line with longterm averages.
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  However, you can look at their GDP per capita number.
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  That's a measure of average wealth or income per person.
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  Versus the rest of the world.
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  Wow.
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  Keep in mind that the economic and population growth is so strong and you can make an assumption that economically.
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  The country is undervalued.
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  We'll dive a little more into this the first week of December.
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  When our first guest speaker joins our podcast.
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  Thanks for elaborating more on the paramount global rankings.
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  And where they currently stand.
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  Scott, I'm eager to hear you discuss them further with our guest in December.
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  Finally, what are we looking at this week in the United States and globally?
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  Chris.
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  This week, we have several readings on the us consumer.
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  Walmart Lowe's target and TJ Maxx all report this week.
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  We also expect to see retailers projections for the holiday shopping season.
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  Retailer outlooks are key.
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  As the fourth quarter is typically the strongest period of the year.
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  We have a couple of housing reports this week.
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  We have us leading economic indicators.
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  Some flash PMI reports and the university of Michigan's final consumer sentiment report.
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  Comes out on Friday.
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  Uh, overseas.
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  China's back on the clock with their loan prime rate announcement.
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  And we have retail sales from the UK and Canada.
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  But the biggest potential news comes to us Wednesday as the world's largest company.
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  Depending on the second you look in the video reports, earnings.
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  On Wednesday.
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  Futures markets are pricing in a move 9%, the stock either way.
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  And with the size and the video.
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  That's likely to have an overall market impact.
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  Well, we will certainly have to keep on the lookout for those reports and trends.
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  And I'm sure we will have plenty to discuss next Monday.
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  For now stay informed.
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  Stay ahead.
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  And join us next week for more key updates shaping the global economy.
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  Thank you for tuning into paramount wealth perspectives.
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  We hope you all have a fantastic week.