Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto Crash Over?📉Market Update
Transcript
- 0:07Speaker 1: Let's dive into the market today. There's a lot of
- 0:09Speaker 1: action and of course bitcoin has had a recovery.
- 0:11Speaker 2: We'll give you.
- 0:12Speaker 1: An insight on what that means for you. My name
- 0:14Speaker 1: is Paul Barer. We'll come back in the tech path.
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- 1:01Speaker 1: All right, let's go over to a couple of things today.
- 1:03Speaker 1: COBEEC wrapping up a little bit of an analysis here.
- 1:06Speaker 1: FED pivot is officially dead and one of the things
- 1:09Speaker 1: that they're really focused in on here. Stocks are crashing
- 1:12Speaker 1: after US added nearly one hundred thousand jobs more than
- 1:15Speaker 1: expected in December, and of course unemployment fell now down
- 1:18Speaker 1: to four point one. So this is just after the
- 1:20Speaker 1: FED said the labor market was weakening. So I'm curious
- 1:24Speaker 1: where is chairpal getting his data from if he thinks
- 1:26Speaker 1: that the market is weakening, and then we ended up
- 1:28Speaker 1: pumping in jobs and basically lowering our unemployment rates. So
- 1:34Speaker 1: I think with all of that, you have to kind
- 1:36Speaker 1: of consider the situation on what's happening right now in
- 1:40Speaker 1: the economy, and that is the economy is stronger, We're
- 1:42Speaker 1: in continued to see in inflation situation play out in
- 1:44Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, and all of this, I think is
- 1:47Speaker 1: going to continue to push people to the non inflationary
- 1:52Speaker 1: products out there, which is digital assets and others. So
- 1:54Speaker 1: Peterschiff even says dollars should not be higher on today's
- 1:57Speaker 1: strong job report or a rising nominal bond. You'll instead
- 2:00Speaker 1: traders should focus on the eminent collapse of real interest
- 2:03Speaker 1: rates as the Fed fails to sufficiently raise interest rates
- 2:07Speaker 1: or step up on the QT to fight the rekindle
- 2:10Speaker 1: inflation fire. I think that is a factor, and Peter
- 2:13Speaker 1: is actually kind of right here. I think you are
- 2:16Speaker 1: going to see a lot of people evacuating into gold,
- 2:19Speaker 1: and especially if we continue to see inflation run. The
- 2:22Speaker 1: real question will be as if the Fed actually raises
- 2:26Speaker 1: rates this year. Many people have said that's just not
- 2:29Speaker 1: going to happen, that's just not going to happen. Well,
- 2:31Speaker 1: inflation can change the minds of people very quickly. Bank
- 2:35Speaker 1: of America revises their forecast no longer expects any Fed
- 2:39Speaker 1: interest rate cuts in twenty twenty five zero. So if
- 2:43Speaker 1: you think that's happening here in the first two weeks
- 2:46Speaker 1: of January without seeing inflation numbers coming through the first quarter,
- 2:51Speaker 1: look at how quick these big banks and these analyst
- 2:54Speaker 1: will pivot in the next sixty to ninety days. So
- 2:57Speaker 1: a lot happening, you're for sure. Given, And of course
- 3:01Speaker 1: their statement is they're looking at the jobs report also
- 3:04Speaker 1: as being the big factor here. It is so funny
- 3:07Speaker 1: because to me, a lot of these analysts seem to
- 3:10Speaker 1: be very reactive on this stuff. It's like they don't
- 3:12Speaker 1: see these things coming. And I don't understand that because
- 3:15Speaker 1: these are somewhat I think fairly easy to pick out
- 3:19Speaker 1: in terms of where inflation continues to be very sticky.
- 3:23Speaker 1: The one that I always watch, and this is when
- 3:25Speaker 1: I tell you guys to go watch. If you just
- 3:27Speaker 1: track truflation and go into the food away from home category,
- 3:31Speaker 1: go look at that. If you just look purely at that,
- 3:34Speaker 1: which is one of the biggest industries out there, it's
- 3:36Speaker 1: over a trillion dollars almost like one point two trillion
- 3:38Speaker 1: here in the US. If you follow that, all you
- 3:41Speaker 1: see is upward trends on costs, and that is inflation
- 3:44Speaker 1: starting to invade into the American people. All right, I
- 3:47Speaker 1: want to go to a quick video or a clip here.
- 3:50Speaker 1: This is going to get into no cuts and why
- 3:53Speaker 1: it might happen. Take a look.
- 3:54Speaker 2: It's like you come home and your daughter kisses you,
- 3:58Speaker 2: and you say, I'm afraid you're not gonna love me
- 4:01Speaker 2: in the future. I mean, right now, Joe you got
- 4:05Speaker 2: really good job.
- 4:07Speaker 1: You're just arguing with you argue with the markets, don't.
- 4:10Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not. I'm just I'm just why is
- 4:12Speaker 2: it happening? Then, I'm just saying, just talk about what
- 4:14Speaker 2: is not. First, First, you're right. You're right in the
- 4:17Speaker 2: sense that the FED had pushed aside this notion that
- 4:21Speaker 2: employment was a potential source of inflation. These kind of
- 4:24Speaker 2: numbers kind of bring it back in the sense that
- 4:28Speaker 2: the the payroll numbers themselves are hot. Unemployment rate has
- 4:31Speaker 2: been you know, dancing around this for one, four, two numbers.
- 4:34Speaker 2: But but I don't want to awfualize this number, Joe.
- 4:37Speaker 2: I just think it's the world has to You don't
- 4:39Speaker 2: have to. I mean the market can. I don't think
- 4:43Speaker 2: it's to awfulize it. Okay, I'm gonna argue with no cuts.
- 4:46Speaker 2: I'm gonna put no cuts, no cuts. I think it's
- 4:49Speaker 2: no cuts. I think that's right.
- 4:50Speaker 3: It means people have jobs. I'm starting to just think
- 4:53Speaker 3: this is a healthy labor market and we might have
- 4:55Speaker 3: to come to terms with the fact that anyway, inflation
- 4:58Speaker 3: isn't as low as the FED would like. This might
- 5:01Speaker 3: just be where inflation is and where where our new
- 5:05Speaker 3: equal rate of inflation, which is bad news for the
- 5:08Speaker 3: FED because I think they're very anxious to cut.
- 5:11Speaker 1: All right, So as you can see, this is a
- 5:13Speaker 1: big scenario that is playing out here in the first
- 5:15Speaker 1: quarter of twenty twenty five. If we do see inflation
- 5:18Speaker 1: stick around and continue its track up, I think bitcoins
- 5:22Speaker 1: are going to be continuing to be a good place.
- 5:24Speaker 1: And when you look at digital assets, they'll carry on
- 5:26Speaker 1: to the bitcoin, you know, coattails, because bitcoin will be
- 5:29Speaker 1: a big part of this. Then investors will be looking
- 5:32Speaker 1: to all coins and other assets out there in the
- 5:34Speaker 1: digital sphere, so all playing well into everything but the dollar.
- 5:38Speaker 1: So if you take a look at true inflation right here,
- 5:41Speaker 1: you can kind of see this dip. Of course, we
- 5:42Speaker 1: saw that toward the end of last year, and I
- 5:44Speaker 1: think that is when the FED made its unfortunate mistake
- 5:48Speaker 1: thinking that they had conquered inflation. And of course since
- 5:52Speaker 1: then we've risen from what was a one point seventy
- 5:54Speaker 1: three to where we're holding right now, getting ready to
- 5:56Speaker 1: crack into three here on January tenth. But we've already
- 5:59Speaker 1: seen that height at three point ho seven at the
- 6:02Speaker 1: end of last year. So this all plays into digital assets.
- 6:06Speaker 1: I believe it also could play into gold. There's a
- 6:09Speaker 1: lot of alternative assets to the dollar that will start
- 6:12Speaker 1: to play out. And remember this all depends on the
- 6:16Speaker 1: administration that's coming in and how quickly they try to
- 6:19Speaker 1: do things. If they go into tariffs, could we see
- 6:23Speaker 1: in these sanctions almost could we see more pressure on
- 6:25Speaker 1: the American economy from an inflation standpoint. And even with that,
- 6:30Speaker 1: it's very possible that there could even be things like
- 6:33Speaker 1: a revaluation of gold, which would really put some pressure
- 6:35Speaker 1: on the dollar that is basically deflating the main primary
- 6:40Speaker 1: currency away. So all this very very heated twenty twenty five.
- 6:44Speaker 1: I think it's going to be one of the most
- 6:45Speaker 1: active years we've seen. Yes yet. Speaking of other assets
- 6:50Speaker 1: out there, one that we've continue to watch is a
- 6:52Speaker 1: little bit what's happening with the TikTok situation. And of
- 6:55Speaker 1: course TikTok is going to have a primary effect on
- 6:58Speaker 1: what we think is going to be one of the
- 7:00Speaker 1: biggest blockchain projects out there, being Polka Dot. You've heard
- 7:03Speaker 1: us talk about this before. Well, we're only eight days
- 7:05Speaker 1: away from this band and there is a lot of
- 7:08Speaker 1: things happening around this now we're going to do a
- 7:09Speaker 1: full video of it for you guys on Monday, because
- 7:12Speaker 1: today is a very critical day. The judge is actually
- 7:15Speaker 1: hearing a rebuttal from the TikTok lawyers right now. All
- 7:19Speaker 1: of that is going to be breaking down. In the
- 7:20Speaker 1: likelihood of Kevin O'Leary and the team over there, we
- 7:25Speaker 1: may see with Frank mccourry, we may see a move
- 7:27Speaker 1: quickly over the weekend, So be on your seats watching
- 7:30Speaker 1: for that one. Let's go into another thing, and that
- 7:34Speaker 1: is strategic bitcoin reserves. Now, right here is the breaking
- 7:37Speaker 1: news that Dennis Porter was kind of hinting to on
- 7:39Speaker 1: our show the other day. New Hampshire introduces legislation to
- 7:42Speaker 1: adopt a strategic bitcoin reserve. Now, granted, this is New Hampshire,
- 7:47Speaker 1: and I will say, all right, it's not a major state.
- 7:49Speaker 1: But you've got to think about the United States differently
- 7:52Speaker 1: than the rest of the world, because when you look
- 7:54Speaker 1: at the tweet that he follows up with right here,
- 7:57Speaker 1: there are four states in the United States that count
- 7:59Speaker 1: for four of the fifteen largest economies in the world.
- 8:04Speaker 1: There are one hundred and eighty countries. So think about
- 8:07Speaker 1: that for a second, guys. If we get one of
- 8:09Speaker 1: those four states as a bitcoin reserve target. That is
- 8:13Speaker 1: a top ten GDP. That's pretty huge, and that right
- 8:18Speaker 1: there alone could be pretty significant in terms of a
- 8:21Speaker 1: bitcoin reserve, especially at the state level. So I'll be
- 8:25Speaker 1: talking to Dennis more about that because he is on
- 8:27Speaker 1: the front lines of all that good stuff. Jacob Camfield here,
- 8:30Speaker 1: I think we can all agree that this price on
- 8:32Speaker 1: the action of the bitcoin is total garbage. It looks
- 8:35Speaker 1: like the most it's mostly just algoes fighting each other
- 8:38Speaker 1: on the low time frames. And we talked about this,
- 8:40Speaker 1: actually I tweeted about this this morning and if you
- 8:43Speaker 1: looked at the hourly let me go over to the Yeah,
- 8:45Speaker 1: look at this hourly chart right here. Guys. This started
- 8:49Speaker 1: right there early night and through the night, literally the
- 8:53Speaker 1: hourly just on the market makers moving into this pattern
- 8:57Speaker 1: on bitcoin. So it seemed as though they were just
- 8:59Speaker 1: done with bitcoin falling and move the market into the
- 9:02Speaker 1: positive direction, which right now we're up about two point
- 9:05Speaker 1: four or five on the day for bitcoin. But another
- 9:09Speaker 1: along with that, Ethereum also moved up XRP of course
- 9:14Speaker 1: kind of sideways, but have that this is on the
- 9:16Speaker 1: hourly charts for most of these Solana had a very
- 9:18Speaker 1: similar move, and then Avax also some very similar moves.
- 9:22Speaker 1: So interesting that this is all happening right now, especially
- 9:26Speaker 1: going into Trump's inauguration, which is just coming around the corner.
- 9:30Speaker 1: Ethereum also under pressure, as Fidelity is transferring two hundred
- 9:34Speaker 1: and thirteen million Eth to an exchange. A couple of
- 9:37Speaker 1: points within this two hundred million worth of crypto, especially
- 9:41Speaker 1: on Eth being transferred over to coin based the last
- 9:44Speaker 1: forty eight hours. That's a big deal when you look
- 9:46Speaker 1: at Eth transfers in general. So could Eth be in
- 9:48Speaker 1: a position where we might see some sell offs on
- 9:51Speaker 1: ethereum other things that are playing out right now. Spot
- 9:54Speaker 1: pitcoin ETFs were approved exactly a year ago today and
- 9:57Speaker 1: they now hold one hundred and nine billion in bitcoin.
- 10:01Speaker 1: That's the most successful ETF and launch, and I think
- 10:04Speaker 1: that we're probably going to maybe even go above that
- 10:08Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five because I think the scenario that's
- 10:11Speaker 1: playing out with Wall Street and inflation and the value
- 10:15Speaker 1: of the dollar. Watched the Dixie very closely, because I
- 10:18Speaker 1: think the ETFs are probably going to be a flight
- 10:20Speaker 1: to safety for all this. And remember we've heard many
- 10:22Speaker 1: people say this, including Larry Fink, have talked about this
- 10:25Speaker 1: bit wise. They're coming in with a new survey of
- 10:27Speaker 1: financial advisors and their attitudes toward crypto assets. All right,
- 10:31Speaker 1: a couple of key points within this that are cool.
- 10:34Speaker 1: Crypto emerged strong winner twenty twenty four to fifty six
- 10:37Speaker 1: percent of advisors said they were more likely to invest
- 10:39Speaker 1: in crypto in twenty twenty five. Just the beginning of
- 10:42Speaker 1: last year. That was I think it was less than
- 10:44Speaker 1: ten percent. Crypto allocations doubled year over year, new high.
- 10:49Speaker 1: And then you look at ninety six. This is interesting
- 10:51Speaker 1: right here. Ninety six percent of advisors received a question
- 10:54Speaker 1: about crypto from clients last year. Ev frigets in this space.
- 10:58Speaker 1: One of my best friends out there, any told me
- 11:00Speaker 1: not ninety days ago that he wasn't getting questions in
- 11:03Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, we're seeing a shift in
- 11:06Speaker 1: that quickly. So very interesting last quarter, very critical for
- 11:10Speaker 1: the future of digital assets. Ninety nine percent of advisors
- 11:13Speaker 1: currently have an allocation to crypto in client account plans
- 11:17Speaker 1: now maintain or increase their exposure in twenty twenty five,
- 11:20Speaker 1: So that's another one. Access remains a major barrier to adoption.
- 11:23Speaker 1: I don't know that that is true. Completely because I
- 11:27Speaker 1: feel like most anybody wants to buy bitcoin understand how
- 11:30Speaker 1: to get to it. I get it for the fact
- 11:32Speaker 1: that there are a lot of family offices things like
- 11:34Speaker 1: that that have problems in being able to go into
- 11:37Speaker 1: major over the OTC transactions. Maybe that's what they're talking about.
- 11:41Speaker 1: Crypto Equity ETFs continue to be the advisor's top choice,
- 11:45Speaker 1: which is one of the reasons because it's a very
- 11:47Speaker 1: easy access to a lot of the bigger clients out there.
- 11:49Speaker 1: So definitely a good news for all of that. Further
- 11:53Speaker 1: into that, I want to go over here. AI agents
- 11:55Speaker 1: is still one of the hottest things right now in
- 11:59Speaker 1: terms of the DEXes. This is where most everything is
- 12:01Speaker 1: being accumulated. If you look at a couple of points
- 12:03Speaker 1: within this AI market is down from its peak valuation
- 12:07Speaker 1: around seventeen billion. It's down. So could that mean that
- 12:11Speaker 1: this is a great opportunity to jump in if you
- 12:13Speaker 1: do believe in the AI agent scenario. Buying volumes point
- 12:17Speaker 1: to accumulation for some of the agents and previously grab
- 12:20Speaker 1: community attention. We've seen this kind of continued to move.
- 12:23Speaker 1: You've seen most of these, but remember there's a lot
- 12:26Speaker 1: of new listings that are starting to show up on Binance.
- 12:28Speaker 1: This is a big factor because we start to see
- 12:30Speaker 1: these listings come in to Binance, especially around these agents,
- 12:34Speaker 1: and I think it starts to carry over many of
- 12:36Speaker 1: the others because you're going to see communities saying, oh, well,
- 12:38Speaker 1: maybe they're coming in to Binance or quoity. It's wherever
- 12:41Speaker 1: it might be for top listings. And there's the AI
- 12:45Speaker 1: agent token market capitalization you can kind of see coming
- 12:47Speaker 1: off of that sixteen billion down to ten right now,
- 12:50Speaker 1: So are we in that position where this could be
- 12:54Speaker 1: a buying opportunity. Very interesting stuff. One of the note
- 12:57Speaker 1: right here is just the trading volume up almost twenty
- 13:00Speaker 1: percent to two point two bill So you can kind
- 13:02Speaker 1: of see the trends coming there. Not necessarily a lot
- 13:04Speaker 1: of them. You guys have probably if you follow our show,
- 13:08Speaker 1: we actually have been talking to about quite a few
- 13:10Speaker 1: of the agents that we're watching. For the ones that
- 13:13Speaker 1: maybe are brand new on this, just check out virtuals protocol.
- 13:16Speaker 1: That's probably the easiest if you want to kind of
- 13:19Speaker 1: move in the base ecosystem, that's the way to go.
- 13:21Speaker 1: If you go over into the avalanche ecosystem, go to
- 13:24Speaker 1: Pharaoh and you can kind of see a little bit
- 13:25Speaker 1: more action over there on that deck, so of what's
- 13:28Speaker 1: happening within those now, there's many more that are going
- 13:30Speaker 1: to be coming, and I think we're going to see
- 13:32Speaker 1: an onslaught of many chains starting to get a lot
- 13:35Speaker 1: more active on agents. Speaking of that, you have Ronan
- 13:39Speaker 1: doing that very same thing, and of course this is
- 13:42Speaker 1: kind of an interesting situation where they have launched what
- 13:45Speaker 1: appears to be a very fast turnaround on getting the
- 13:50Speaker 1: Ronan partnership. I don't know if I would call it
- 13:53Speaker 1: a partnership, but a launch on virtuals for the Jayhaws project.
- 13:56Speaker 1: So a couple of points. It's ANAI agent inspired one
- 14:00Speaker 1: of the founders, so of sky Mavis. If you guys
- 14:02Speaker 1: don't know who sky Mavis is and what Ronan is,
- 14:05Speaker 1: you probably know them from Axieinfinity ACXI Infinity be one
- 14:08Speaker 1: of the pretty much the iconic games of the last
- 14:12Speaker 1: Bull Run, and remember Web three Gaming. I would have
- 14:16Speaker 1: to give Axieinfinity the credibility and the cred to say
- 14:19Speaker 1: that they were the one that kind of put it
- 14:21Speaker 1: on the map. And I think that's where it's going
- 14:24Speaker 1: to get interesting because you could compare AI agents now
- 14:27Speaker 1: to what was happening in the Web three gaming space
- 14:30Speaker 1: in the last run in twenty twenty one, and if
- 14:33Speaker 1: you look at what Axieinfinity did at that time, could
- 14:36Speaker 1: we see someone or projects come out of this bull
- 14:40Speaker 1: run that would have a similar kind of performance. I
- 14:43Speaker 1: want to go to this last clip that gets into
- 14:45Speaker 1: a little detail around just that.
- 14:47Speaker 4: Take a look one of the most interesting things I've
- 14:51Speaker 4: ever seen in crypto. It looks like an emerging news sector,
- 14:55Speaker 4: the way that DeFi was a new sector, the way
- 14:57Speaker 4: the NFTs was a new sector, the way the crypto
- 15:00Speaker 4: aiming was a news sector. One of the reasons I
- 15:03Speaker 4: think that's more exciting is that it parallels the most
- 15:07Speaker 4: dominant theme on planet Earth right now, right, I mean,
- 15:10Speaker 4: AI is just this this monolithic theme that is heavily
- 15:17Speaker 4: impacting every aspect of our lives and dominating financial markets.
- 15:21Speaker 2: Right.
- 15:22Speaker 4: If you can get one of these agents, or a
- 15:24Speaker 4: few of these agents to do something that's actually somewhat noteworthy,
- 15:29Speaker 4: then I think that's going to just take the whole
- 15:32Speaker 4: sector to do a step change, right. I mean likened
- 15:35Speaker 4: that to Axieinfinity, which I'm sure you probably remember, which
- 15:39Speaker 4: there is the crypto gaming thing going on and then
- 15:41Speaker 4: Axieinfinity had this pretty brief but very significant period of
- 15:47Speaker 4: large scale success where you were providing a living wage
- 15:52Speaker 4: to thousands of Malaysians by basically farming in this Axie
- 15:57Speaker 4: Infinity game and does hilpines Philippines sorry Philippines, right, you know,
- 16:03Speaker 4: And that success of actually Infinity just took the whole
- 16:08Speaker 4: crypto gaming thing to a big next step. Now it
- 16:12Speaker 4: really all collapsed and there wasn't anything really sustainable at
- 16:15Speaker 4: all out of all of it, which maybe that end
- 16:17Speaker 4: of itself is indicative of how this all this might
- 16:20Speaker 4: go and there could be some great investment opportunities out
- 16:22Speaker 4: of it, although you know ninety nine point nine nine
- 16:26Speaker 4: percent of it is going to collapse and never produce anything,
- 16:29Speaker 4: all right.
- 16:30Speaker 1: I think you know with Travis what he's talking about there.
- 16:32Speaker 1: I agree with this thesis is that you know, the
- 16:35Speaker 1: movement is happening. The difference between the Web three and
- 16:39Speaker 1: where we are in the AI ecosystem is you had
- 16:43Speaker 1: and have a Web two gaming economy, and I think
- 16:47Speaker 1: overall social and cultural component that Web three gaming could
- 16:52Speaker 1: never really break through until now we're starting just for
- 16:55Speaker 1: the first time to really see a little bit of
- 16:56Speaker 1: that primarily because of what we saw with Off the Grid.
- 17:00Speaker 1: But if you look at AI, it's so new over there.
- 17:03Speaker 1: It's not a legacy industry like what Web two gaming was.
- 17:07Speaker 1: So I think maybe AI agents could have a better
- 17:09Speaker 1: chance here in this period of time of actually getting
- 17:13Speaker 1: into something and as he mentioned, becoming something that would
- 17:17Speaker 1: be functional, and once that we see functionality because that remember,
- 17:22Speaker 1: use case is always going to trump everything because once
- 17:24Speaker 1: use case is established, then you have market, and then
- 17:27Speaker 1: you have total addressable market of what that might look like.
- 17:29Speaker 1: So an AI agent could be right there on the
- 17:32Speaker 1: forefront of that. So we were watching that sector very closely.
- 17:35Speaker 1: All right, If you guys are not in the diamond circle,
- 17:37Speaker 1: make sure and get in right now. It's a great
- 17:38Speaker 1: place to get additional content. And we always leave a
- 17:41Speaker 1: link down in the description below and let me know
- 17:43Speaker 1: what you guys think. Do you think AI agents are
- 17:46Speaker 1: the sector that is the new DeFi, the new Web
- 17:49Speaker 1: three gaming of this cycle? Let me know, drop your
- 17:52Speaker 1: comments down below, follow me out there on x at
- 17:55Speaker 1: Paul Barren. We'll catch you next time right here on
- 17:57Speaker 1: tech Path, the mutim