Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Crypto Rundown: Technical Analysis for BTC, ETH, & SOL Plus Clarity Act Update

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Crypto Rundown: Technical Analysis for BTC, ETH, & SOL Plus Clarity Act Update · CRYPTO 101

0:07
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, everybody, welcome back to the crypto 101 podcast presented by Gemini your bridge to the future of money and it is a fun one today good morning to everybody that is with us live a little crypto and coffee with my friend Brendan who we not have not had on the program a while Brendan's been diving into the charts just you know doing the research to get the year going and and the year on a high note as we did.
0:30
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, so excited to have him back.
0:32
[SPEAKER_05]: We got a ton of technical analysis to cover with him, uh, some of the big banks fidelity Wells Fargo are starting to lean risk on and are mentioning crypto in these risk on leanings.
0:40
[SPEAKER_05]: So we're going to bring that to you inflation's falling like a rock.
0:43
[SPEAKER_05]: There's some news in the fed with the administration versus Jaypal as they're always is, but some new news that we need to cover and then the center stage.
0:51
[SPEAKER_05]: meeting potatoes of this episode is going to be the clarity act of there's a lot going on in DC with crypto that you know a lot of us in the space really think is going to kind of lead the charge in twenty twenty six we'll set the table for you all today on this episode with my friend Brendan who we haven't done a podcast in a while my friend I'm excited to have you here welcome back.
1:12
[SPEAKER_01]: I know, man.
1:12
[SPEAKER_01]: It's built good to be back.
1:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Happy New Year, everyone.
1:16
[SPEAKER_01]: I believe this is going to be our first one of the new year.
1:19
[SPEAKER_01]: We came back and we did one with our predictions video at the very start of the year, but then I got sick and I was away and all these other things.
1:27
[SPEAKER_01]: But the crypto market continues to move.
1:29
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot going on, especially on the price chart.
1:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Bitcoin's still trying to put it in a reversal.
1:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say that there's some pre-positive signs that we're going to take a look at today.
1:39
[SPEAKER_01]: But before I do this, TV,
1:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I was, I took a little bit of a vacation over the holidays, right, right around New Years.
1:46
[SPEAKER_01]: And I went down to the Bahamas for a little bit.
1:48
[SPEAKER_01]: You already know this story.
1:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And I was swimming and I went up to the swimmer bar and I was trying to grab a drink.
1:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And I, I had this gentleman come up to me and he was, I'm sorry, did you say your name was Brendan?
1:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I said, yeah.
2:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And I thought, you know, maybe he was someone I was talking to the other night or something, he's like, dude, I watch you in Tivo on the crypto run down all the time.
2:11
[SPEAKER_01]: I couldn't tell if it was you, but then I heard you say your name.
2:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I had to give him a shout out.
2:17
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we love getting the meat you all.
2:19
[SPEAKER_01]: We love getting it in a racked with you all.
2:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Billy just had a lot of great things to say.
2:23
[SPEAKER_01]: He was, he might have been talking about you the most.
2:25
[SPEAKER_01]: He's like, I love what Tivo brings.
2:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Tivo is the man.
2:28
[SPEAKER_01]: You guys crush the rundowns.
2:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Bryce on the podcast, I've been listening to those forever.
2:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And so shout out to Billy.
2:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Billy, I know you're out there listening.
2:36
[SPEAKER_01]: He said he's an avid listener.
2:37
[SPEAKER_01]: And my favorite thing that he said.
2:39
[SPEAKER_01]: My favorite thing that he said to you though was I listened to the podcast on Apple Podcasts and then when there's chart stuff and visuals that I want then I go back and I rewatch it on YouTube and I was like oh man our message is getting through to people so quick little cool story to kick off the new year I don't want to spend too much time on it but I just wanted to say we love doing these we truly love interacting with all of you and if you see us in public we'd love to say hello
3:05
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, that was my favorite saga over that I was against the weekend after New Year's I was following as like first was you met Billy and then Bryce and I were in the chat and you're like wait Go find him again like well, bye.
3:15
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm a drink.
3:16
[SPEAKER_05]: Go get a drink with them and then Billy's been all over I think he I think he comments it on YouTube like you said I think he DMed us on sorry said something on Twitter like a post so
3:24
[SPEAKER_05]: I've been interacting with you via social media billies.
3:27
[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you again.
3:28
[SPEAKER_05]: Thanks to everybody for listening.
3:29
[SPEAKER_05]: It's going to be a great year.
3:31
[SPEAKER_05]: But speaking of looking and wanting to see the charts, let's pull them up.
3:36
[SPEAKER_05]: I know we're kind of hasn't been any crazy price action except for maybe when the year first started that first week.
3:43
[SPEAKER_05]: But we haven't done it with your Brendan so let's let's pick your brain or what you're seeing and before our as he's pulling it up I do have the link for Brendan six week trading course below so I think right now you can sign up to get the alerts but I know the promotion is going to be starting to get a new six week course live in the next couple weeks so if you're interested in doing this type of technical analysis doing Brendan six week course and then doing lives with Brendan twice a week.
4:11
[SPEAKER_05]: Check out the link below.
4:12
[SPEAKER_05]: It's free to sign up for Hibrenden's trade alerts.
4:15
[SPEAKER_05]: You can get them below.
4:16
[SPEAKER_05]: And then also gets nowhere information around the course as that time of the month comes.
4:23
[SPEAKER_05]: So, Brendan, I'll hand it off to you.
4:24
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, let's start off with the charts first to you, though, and then we'll get into all the news and catalysts and everything else that's going on, but I mean, for the past couple of months, Bitcoin's really just been consolidating.
4:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think the best way to define this consolidation is watching Bitcoin between 94,000 on the high end.
4:42
[SPEAKER_01]: That is the clear resistance level.
4:44
[SPEAKER_01]: And around 84,000 on the low end.
4:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, we've seen ourselves kind of come from 94, come down, rise back up to 94, come down, rise back up to 94 and back up to 94 and back up to it again.
4:56
[SPEAKER_01]: The difference here is that, you know, we're keeping 94,000 as a resistance level and we can see that.
5:02
[SPEAKER_01]: What is changing here is the support, the support was finding a lot of, you know,
5:07
[SPEAKER_01]: leverage, I guess you could say around 84,000.
5:10
[SPEAKER_01]: That's been changing over the last couple of weeks.
5:13
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen it go from its absolute bottom trough of 80k to 84 to 85 almost, the up to 86 to 87 to 89.
5:23
[SPEAKER_01]: And we've been seeing support climb while resistance stays the same.
5:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, for the first time since the October 10th break down in Bitcoin's price, we're seeing it back above the 50-day moving average in a very convincing manner.
5:37
[SPEAKER_01]: What I mean by that is we have the initial breakdown of the 50, we rejected it and rejected it and rejected it and we stayed beneath this panger red line for the entire time and in the past couple months, but now we're starting to break back above that.
5:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you're looking at this saying, hey, what is actually changing?
5:54
[SPEAKER_01]: The key takeaways that I want to give you is that Bitcoin is still hitting the same resistance level.
5:59
[SPEAKER_01]: It is seeing higher lows on a support line, and it's breaking short-term bearish structure by getting above the 50-day moving average for the first time since the breakdown, and also getting above the 20-day moving average.
6:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And because it's above those, both of those now, it has formed a golden cross where the 20-day moving average has crossed upwards over the 50-day.
6:20
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're starting to see some cracks in the bearish armor, the cracks in the bearish argument, and you're starting to see some things that we haven't seen before, especially as price actions getting above these moving averages and seeing higher highs or higher lows.
6:33
[SPEAKER_01]: So I like that.
6:34
[SPEAKER_01]: I think from a bullish end, you're seeing things that we really haven't seen since the October 10th.
6:39
[SPEAKER_01]: meltdown of last year and that huge massive liquidation event, the largest single day liquidation event the Bitcoin has ever seen.
6:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And we're starting to see price action get back above there.
6:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And as so again, I think if you're a bull, you're liking what you're seeing so far.
6:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I would not go so far as to say,
6:56
[SPEAKER_01]: that this obliterate the entire bearish thread.
7:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to go so far as to say this is a guaranteed reversal and we're, you know, we're proven that we've disqualified this bear on and we're, we're turned around.
7:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I would not go that far yet.
7:09
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we're getting close.
7:12
[SPEAKER_01]: But.
7:13
[SPEAKER_01]: We're seeing a lot of good early signs, right?
7:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Before the break, before the holidays, we were saying, hey, if you look at all these different indicators about price, the one-day RSI, the one-week RSI, the one-day MACD, the Fearing Green Index, if you look at all these, they're all at historic kind of low-in turnaround points that we only usually see at the bottom of the market, right before a turnaround.
7:36
[SPEAKER_01]: And so there's all of those indicators kind of firing as well.
7:40
[SPEAKER_01]: And we've talked about there's a lot, right?
7:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably it does in times or I already said, I don't want to waste too much time.
7:45
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll talk about it again in a future video.
7:47
[SPEAKER_01]: But there are a lot of things that work here.
7:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And so when you're looking at Bitcoin, it's looking as if this is an ascending triangle, which for people who don't know, it's a bullish formation where you have a higher lows into steady highs.
8:00
[SPEAKER_01]: and pressure builds into the upside because the bulls are able to gain ground hence why they have higher lows and the bears are not able to gain ground showing that they don't have as much strength because they're not able to push price down and so eventually price squeezes into the upside
8:15
[SPEAKER_01]: until the pressure builds and they can't handle it.
8:18
[SPEAKER_01]: And then typically speaking, the majority of the time with an ascending triangle, you have an explosion upward.
8:22
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think the big resistance area is here for Bitcoin is you're going to have a small-ish resistance at 100k around there roughly.
8:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And then 106k is going to be the next big level.
8:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Because that's the bottom of this all-time high support zone and consolidations zone.
8:37
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's also where the 200-day moving average is.
8:39
[SPEAKER_01]: So
8:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Looking a little bit higher here if we can get a breakout, the only thing that invalidates this is if we start getting beneath the support line, we don't see higher lows, we're beneath the moving averages and you start seeing a crackdown, well then that kind of invalidates this idea, but I think that this is an area where I want to be cautiously optimistic about what we're seeing.
8:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's also a couple of arguments of people saying, hey, it's overdue.
9:04
[SPEAKER_01]: We understand why crypto has been kind of suppressed downwards because of that largest liquidation of end in its history, and maybe some other things happening.
9:12
[SPEAKER_01]: However, people have been watching the rest of the markets.
9:15
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, M2 money supply, they've been watching that.
9:18
[SPEAKER_01]: They've been watching something like, you know, the SMP going the all-time highs.
9:22
[SPEAKER_01]: They've been watching gold, good all-time highs, and silver, good all-time highs.
9:27
[SPEAKER_01]: The people are starting to theorize that.
9:30
[SPEAKER_01]: There is this game of catch-up that crypto should and in my opinion, I think that it will have.
9:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Now again, that's just my opinion, but I think that the way that I view it is that it's just a matter of time until Bitcoin sees a catch-up to all those different assets that I was just showing and talking about.
9:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's one of the big things that I am willing to battle on.
9:50
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, obviously we're going to be a little bit biased over here, Tevo.
9:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I like crypto.
9:54
[SPEAKER_01]: I own a lot of crypto.
9:55
[SPEAKER_01]: We have a whole show about crypto.
9:57
[SPEAKER_01]: But...
9:58
[SPEAKER_01]: That's truly where I believe, or what I believe, and I'm putting my money, you know, where my mouth is, but if we look at just briefly, I know we got a lot to talk about just to wrap this up.
10:07
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're looking at the rest of these altcoins, you know, Ethereum in a penit, it's squeezing here.
10:11
[SPEAKER_01]: You see lower highs and higher lows, so pressure is building over in here.
10:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Solana.
10:16
[SPEAKER_01]: trying to break out of this big sideways channel that it's been in.
10:21
[SPEAKER_01]: You saw it break down here in November.
10:23
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been sideways ever since this.
10:26
[SPEAKER_01]: It's trying to break out.
10:27
[SPEAKER_01]: If it breaks out here, next stops, probably the 200-day moving average up at 170.
10:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And you see this thing, again, just pressure building into the upside, so let's keep a close eye on Solana, trying to break out of a multi-month consolidation, a three-month consolidation.
10:43
[SPEAKER_01]: XRP little bit weaker in the market, so, you know, if you're an XRP fan, again, nothing against it as a project, but you see a very clear downwards trend line, it has to break this.
10:54
[SPEAKER_01]: This has been the plague of XRP for
10:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Over six months now and every time it gets near this he just gets swatted down You need to see a break out of this trend line Exert P a little bit weaker relative to the rest of the market and then general all coins here Starting to get a little bit of a mixed reaction you have some rallying sign some kind of seeing higher lows In fact most of them are starting to see higher lows and a little bit of a of a resumed to the upside but
11:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Time was still tall.
11:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the general awkward market's still a little bit weaker.
11:25
[SPEAKER_01]: But I was watching one play over the weekend.
11:27
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you have some of these privacy plays really starting to take a run over the weekend or at least in the start of this week.
11:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Manero was one of the big ones that I saw over there and so, uh, and also shout out the pump, you know, this is something that, uh, been watching and this things, looking like it's trying to have a little bit of a breakout as well.
11:45
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
11:45
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, yeah, yeah, I have a question for you.
11:48
[SPEAKER_05]: So pull up a theorem, just for a visual, and we covered this last week, but there's been a lot of data, especially on crypto Twitter timeline of the amount of staking that's been going on kind of in this price range.
12:01
[SPEAKER_05]: Obviously, we cover, you know, BitMine continues to stake.
12:05
[SPEAKER_05]: We basically talk about that every episode, which is an interesting kind of
12:09
[SPEAKER_05]: first time of a dat saking that especially that large of a number of ethereum but then there's kind of the the validators are coming out it's like okay before christmas into the new year when everything was kind of falling people were rushing out of the doors because if you want to unstake ethereum it's not instant right it takes some time and there was a little bit of a backlog
12:27
[SPEAKER_05]: But recently the data that's been coming out has been showing that people trying to Unstake has basically dropped zero and the staking queue just keeps building and building So again, just just wanted to pick your thoughts on on pairing that with what you're seeing on the charts Is there any correlation?
12:43
[SPEAKER_05]: No correlation But we covered it on Friday and it was an interesting conversation
12:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, staking in regards to like staking on Ethereum, right?
12:53
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, just the queue to start people are at this price level at, you know, 3K to 3200 is the staking queue is rising, which, you know, obviously a signal of, you know, long-term holders.
13:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I would agree.
13:06
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that it is a signal of long-term holders and it makes sense, right?
13:11
[SPEAKER_01]: When prices are lower, people are thinking, okay, I'm going to be holding for longer because prices low.
13:17
[SPEAKER_01]: If it was at all time highs, people are less likely to stake for long periods of time because they're saying, okay, well, it's at all time highs.
13:24
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm likely up money if it's at all time highs.
13:28
[SPEAKER_01]: And the odds are, I probably want to take profits while it's somewhere near all
13:33
[SPEAKER_01]: you really don't want to look at it crash down and say okay well now's the perfect time to pull out right so i think what that means is that you are seeing people get in the people that are the ones getting in are going to be the long-term holders and
13:47
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why the Ethereum-staking queue is rising, because these are all people that are getting in saying, hey, I want to stake, I want to earn a yield on my money, and I want to be in for a long period of time.
13:57
[SPEAKER_01]: So if they have to wait a couple of days or, you know, more than that, however long it is these days, I always get it mixed up between like Salana and Ethereum and all, anyway, it's usually a couple of days for some projects.
14:11
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a couple of weeks, which is crazy.
14:15
[SPEAKER_01]: People don't really care, you know, it's like, hey, if you can get in and you can stake and you can pull your money out, then that's fine, but yeah, I think you're right.
14:24
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you hit the nail in the head in the sense that these are long term holders.
14:27
[SPEAKER_01]: It makes sense that as price goes lower, more people want to stake because they want to accumulate more.
14:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And if they can do that at lower prices, then.
14:36
[SPEAKER_01]: the more the merrier.
14:38
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, again, just all the all the day we find and all the the narratives on crypto, especially social media just kind of try to parse through and see you know how they fit in your own thesis, but I'll take over sharing the screen as we transition into the next topic.
14:53
[SPEAKER_05]: So basically moving on, we have two big banks that are kind of leaning towards a little bit of risk on.
15:05
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, it's breaking down a report from fidelity about before your cycle.
15:10
[SPEAKER_05]: So this is something that we talked about on the year end episode with price and Brendan kind of, you know, a lot of the narrative in the space is that the, you know, traditional for your cycle for Bitcoin and crypto could, could basically be dead.
15:24
[SPEAKER_05]: And technically, it is already ended because Bitcoin had a down year, right?
15:28
[SPEAKER_05]: So that that's, uh,
15:30
[SPEAKER_05]: kind of already true but could it could it lead us into a super cycle and so fidelity kind of published a report in this video is kind of breaking that down so i'm not going to play the whole thing i'm going to play about 40 seconds and then we can discuss so let's take a look for dips
15:46
[SPEAKER_02]: And I want to give a shout out to Fidelity Digital Assets Research Team, which talks about the super cycle mechanism.
15:52
[SPEAKER_02]: And we might see something similar that we have seen in the commodity's market in the 2000s.
15:57
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's dictated by three big factors.
16:00
[SPEAKER_02]: One is, you're seeing this study by institutions focused on ETPs in the domestic market, especially in the US.
16:10
[SPEAKER_02]: You're seeing pro-cryptopologies.
16:12
[SPEAKER_02]: And then the tour, which I'm really excited to talk about is we are also seeing how the crypto market as a whole is maturing and deviating from the S&P 500 and freshest metals so that's great.
16:24
[SPEAKER_05]: And then I'm going to just over right into another 30 second hit so this is Wells Fargo talking about taking risk including, you know, risk on being crypto.
16:35
[SPEAKER_05]: And so after we listen to this we can kind of merge the two thoughts together and kind of play our thought right and look into this one.
16:41
[SPEAKER_03]: volatility is really low.
16:43
[SPEAKER_03]: So just think about implied volatility is a price of insurance.
16:47
[SPEAKER_03]: The VIX is super low.
16:48
[SPEAKER_03]: Foreign exchange volatility is really low down to less than 10% high almost currencies.
16:54
[SPEAKER_03]: Interest trade volatility was kind of a leg or it has crashed down over the last few months.
16:58
[SPEAKER_03]: But that tells me as investors are saying we're pretty comfortable.
17:01
[SPEAKER_03]: Are they overconfident?
17:02
[SPEAKER_03]: Maybe.
17:03
[SPEAKER_03]: But probably not quite yet.
17:04
[SPEAKER_03]: But still, I think it's telling us of people are pretty saying when about taking risk right now.
17:09
[SPEAKER_03]: They're taking more of it as far
17:12
[SPEAKER_05]: So the thoughts are, you know, right now, again, the S&P 100 NASDAQ and the Russell, they're all kind of hovering around all time highs, if not setting you all time highs daily.
17:23
[SPEAKER_05]: And then marking back from how we covered the biggest liquidation in crypto history in October, you know, our space is definitely taking a hit, but there could be a catch-up trade there if risk, if it goes risk on right, there's a beta of a catch-up trade.
17:37
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think that
17:38
[SPEAKER_05]: kind of taking the first clip of how we talked about all those all these ETFs, ETPs, and then what we're going to talk about next being the legislation is again, rolling that red carpet for kind of crypto to be a part of this risk on thesis if it goes that way.
17:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I think the world is moving risk on.
17:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it makes sense that everyone, especially the banks and everyone else want to become more risk on.
18:03
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you have, I would say a fairly rubbish fed.
18:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Someone who said, we're not hiking rates this year, we're only looking at cutting.
18:10
[SPEAKER_01]: You have a new federal chair coming in who wants to cut even more.
18:14
[SPEAKER_01]: You have a really low inflation.
18:16
[SPEAKER_01]: If you look at true, I mean, I don't want to spoil this.
18:18
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to talk about it.
18:19
[SPEAKER_01]: But if you look at true inflation, we're going to, I mean, that's under two percent.
18:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, pull it up.
18:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, it's under 2% and the other inflation reports are saying obviously it's a little bit higher, but I think true inflation is the most accurate source of this.
18:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, inflation is low.
18:34
[SPEAKER_01]: The Fed is dove, the Fed is cutting and you have, I mean, asset prices across the board doing well.
18:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you've pretty good statistics no matter where you look, the price of energy is falling and everything.
18:47
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is a good market for crypto.
18:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, this helps me affirm my belief that it really should just be a matter of time until we see this thing take off again.
18:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the number one thing that we're waiting here for the crypto market in order to become fully like risk on and ready to send it again is just,
19:08
[SPEAKER_01]: whether or how soon we can shake off the bearer, the bearish move that we saw in October.
19:13
[SPEAKER_01]: That is the biggest thing.
19:14
[SPEAKER_01]: When can we fully shake off all of the dust in the dirt that came with that huge liquidation event?
19:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's what we're still waiting to see.
19:24
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I would agree with the man, I think it makes sense for companies, especially looking now because if you look at Bitcoin relative to the rest of the market, if you look at crypto all of crypto, relative to the rest of the market, this thing is something that is beaten down a little bit more, and I think that if people are looking at anything in here, they're looking at the crypto market and saying, hey, this is probably oversold in comparison to the rest of the market, there's probably some value to get here, and so now what investors are starting
19:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Is they're coming in, right?
19:54
[SPEAKER_01]: People are coming in, they're going to start getting their new year's bonuses, they're going to start getting some cash on hand, um, people are already risk on, so they want to kind of get rid of their cash and what they're doing here is they're left with a problem.
20:07
[SPEAKER_01]: They come in, they look at everything and they say, okay, well, I could put my money into the S&P at all time highs, there's that, you know, that scares me a little bit.
20:14
[SPEAKER_01]: I could put my money in the gold, that's at all time highs.
20:17
[SPEAKER_01]: I could put my money in the silver, that's at all time highs.
20:20
[SPEAKER_01]: The only really other thing that you have left is, okay, well, I could put my money into Bitcoin or crypto, which is significantly away from all time highs.
20:27
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe there's a value play there, and if we know one thing about people, I think that at least in a perfect world, people should be more willing to put their money into something that is not sitting at all time highs, and something that isn't a long-term uptrend, but in a pullback.
20:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's where Bitcoin is at right now.
20:44
[SPEAKER_01]: and I think it's going to start appealing to the average investor and we're seeing that with retail, but now because of the articles that you just showed Tvo, we're starting to see that the institutional side is starting to think about it the same way and they're starting to look at it in that kind of same light.
20:59
[SPEAKER_05]: Couldn't agree more and actually go on off the sheet here to share this tab.
21:03
[SPEAKER_05]: We haven't shared the market caps by everything For assets by market caps in a while and it builds perfectly off your point is okay all these in the top 10 even you know Even if you go down to you know meta I think's off a little bit from it's all time high But down to Tesla Berkshire Lily Walmart.
21:20
[SPEAKER_05]: I think Walmart has been on a generational run
21:23
[SPEAKER_05]: All the banks are at all time highs.
21:26
[SPEAKER_05]: So anything in the top 10 here for the most part without pulling up each chart specifically you can basically say anything in the top 10 here is at near or making all time highs on the last couple weeks except for Bitcoin, which is
21:40
[SPEAKER_05]: you know, far off, it's all time eyes of you're comparing it to the rest of the basket here.
21:45
[SPEAKER_05]: And so again, the average person that does not like crypto does not like Bitcoin isn't looking and thinking of Bitcoin being at a discount, but when kind of taking what Brendan said is like, well, who is?
21:57
[SPEAKER_05]: And these asset managers who not only are building and trying to sell Bitcoin and crypto products, but they're also investors themselves.
22:05
[SPEAKER_05]: So anybody that
22:06
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it has a pace of investing in kind of smart assets, has to be looking at this chart and be like, hey, what's what's the top 25, what's the top 50 asset in the world that might be able to have a catch-up trade?
22:21
[SPEAKER_05]: And, you know, again, you can't time the market, nobody has a crystal ball, but I was kind of thinking along the lines of what you were saying there's just it makes sense for for that trade.
22:32
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, it does and I think we're going to see more and more people gravitate towards that side of the table T of L and I think in invites, I think what it does is it also when we were covering when we were covering the the all-time highs we would have the segment where we would talk about the A block B block C block on TV and it goes both ways when crypto's crashing in October, you know, big coins, the A block big coins dead, big coins dying, but also on
23:00
[SPEAKER_05]: you know when it's breaking 90 going to 95 100 100 115 it's it's in a block and everybody's like oh my god Bitcoin Bitcoin you start to see people come out of the woodwork that don't even believe in the tech don't even believe in the asset but the uh specifically I'm thinking of uh
23:15
[SPEAKER_05]: Steve Weiss from CNBC, he always says, like, I don't believe in this.
23:18
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it's basically a pet rock, but it's a great trading vehicle.
23:22
[SPEAKER_05]: And I'm in it here at 90, because I think it's going to go higher.
23:25
[SPEAKER_05]: So when you have that divergence from price, that invites a whole other level of traders.
23:31
[SPEAKER_05]: So there's people who are buying and stacking for long-term.
23:34
[SPEAKER_05]: And there's people that are just purely speculation and traders.
23:37
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think we're kind of getting into that window that sets up a good trade for people, even if they don't want to be long-term holders.
23:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, spot on, man.
23:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, with this, it sounds all hunky-dory, right?
23:50
[SPEAKER_01]: We're saying this, and it sounds all good.
23:52
[SPEAKER_01]: There has been a little bit of drama that we had happened over the last couple of days.
23:58
[SPEAKER_01]: And we have a nice clip from it.
24:00
[SPEAKER_01]: So if you haven't seen it already, I mean, we've talked about it, you've seen it.
24:03
[SPEAKER_01]: There's been B for the last year between President Donald Trump.
24:07
[SPEAKER_01]: and the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.
24:12
[SPEAKER_01]: And they've gone back and forth exchanging blows in this and that, well, the things have escalated, right?
24:18
[SPEAKER_01]: He's Trump has set in the past, oh, I want to fire Jerome Powell, the markets didn't like it.
24:25
[SPEAKER_01]: I was actually doing a little bit of digging, and there's been more drama between the Federal Reserve,
24:31
[SPEAKER_01]: and presidents in the past.
24:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Like you've seen the government in the federal reserve, go and get into heated arguments and disagreements, a lot more than you would think.
24:40
[SPEAKER_01]: So as I was looking at this, I was like, oh, this isn't really that uncommon.
24:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Like we've seen this happen quite a bit before, and it gave me a little bit more reassurance.
24:48
[SPEAKER_01]: But there tends to be market volatility around these events.
24:51
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's go ahead and play the first part of the clip here from Jerome Powell just talking about how he's being investigated by the Department of Justice.
25:02
[SPEAKER_04]: On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with Grand Jury Sapiens, threatening a criminal indictment, related to my testimony before the Senate banking committee last June.
25:14
[SPEAKER_04]: That testimony concerned, in part, a multi-year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings.
25:23
[SPEAKER_04]: I have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy.
25:27
[SPEAKER_04]: No one, certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve,
25:32
[SPEAKER_04]: But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure.
25:40
[SPEAKER_04]: This new threat is not about my testimony last June, or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings.
25:46
[SPEAKER_04]: It is not about Congress's oversight role, a fed through testimony and other public disclosures made every effort to keep Congress informed about the renovation project.
25:56
[SPEAKER_04]: Those are pretexts.
25:59
[SPEAKER_04]: The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.
26:12
[SPEAKER_04]: This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.
26:24
[SPEAKER_05]: So the summary of those words is, we know there's been the back and forth.
26:29
[SPEAKER_05]: There's that famous photo of, let me see if I can find it.
26:33
[SPEAKER_05]: Trump, what was it?
26:35
[SPEAKER_05]: Trump visits the Fed.
26:37
[SPEAKER_05]: So remember, they all had the hard one.
26:41
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, there it is, I got it.
26:42
[SPEAKER_05]: So, you know, there's this project going on of renovating the buildings, and that was a, that was a great picture of them and the hard hats doing the tour.
26:52
[SPEAKER_05]: This is a political playing card.
26:53
[SPEAKER_05]: I think we can all agree there.
26:54
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't know if you have a different take on that Brendan, but it's just a
26:57
[SPEAKER_05]: political playing card and I think the most interesting part is again friend of the show Scott Bessant came out over the weekend.
27:03
[SPEAKER_05]: There were tons of reports that, you know, Bessant informed President Trump over the weekend that this DOJ criminal investigation to the Fed could create a mess in scare markets to be like, hey, if you're really going to put the pedal down and go after this, like, it's going to spook the markets specifically because it has nothing to do with the policy of it, right?
27:22
[SPEAKER_05]: Like, they're going after the
27:25
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, if you even just put on the news for a second, you know, all you're going to get these days is negative press around, you know, government contracts and kind of what Elon was doing with Doge so is there probably some wasteful spending in there?
27:39
[SPEAKER_05]: Absolutely, but is there wasteful spending on every government contract?
27:43
[SPEAKER_05]: I think we've come to learn in the last couple years.
27:45
[SPEAKER_05]: Probably.
27:46
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, but I, no good.
27:48
[SPEAKER_01]: that that's where they it feels like the disconnect is is because there's you know the administration is saying hey we're going after this because of the renovations and then in that speech that we just listened to he's like this isn't because of the renovations are reservations the renovations it's because of our policy and so you have two sides saying two different things.
28:07
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's where people are scared.
28:09
[SPEAKER_01]: And so you have to go back to the most basic law, one of the most basic laws of economics, which is what do people fear the most?
28:17
[SPEAKER_01]: And it is uncertainty.
28:19
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not bad news.
28:20
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not good news.
28:22
[SPEAKER_01]: It is uncertainty.
28:23
[SPEAKER_01]: And that is what the markets fear the most.
28:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And so when you have two different sides, saying two different things, and you have...
28:30
[SPEAKER_01]: arguably the most two, the most, excuse me, the two most powerful people in the planet, going at each other, getting in the legal battles, one being the federal reserve, one being the United States government.
28:41
[SPEAKER_01]: The reason why we bring this up is to not do politics or anything else is to say, hey, this could have an impact on the risk markets and Bitcoin's part of the risk markets.
28:52
[SPEAKER_01]: And so, when we're looking at this, we just have to understand, and again, our goal here is to always go through all the news, break it down, make it understandable, and then present it to you and say, hey, here's what is going on, here's what could stem out of this, and then let you kind of make your own decisions from there, and so that's all we want to do with this is to get the news to you, break it down, show both sides and what they're saying, and then you can make your own decision about how this might affect yourself, and so,
29:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, that's always the big takeaway from this is to not say, hey, let's cover politics with this and that.
29:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Say, hey, let's talk about things that could impact the markets, and especially the crypto industry in this case.
29:29
[SPEAKER_01]: So, that's the way we look at this.
29:31
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm sorry, I'm not going away because the new sets are just going to be picked.
29:35
[SPEAKER_05]: Of any day now, it feels like I think that's going to be announced.
29:39
[SPEAKER_05]: I would, if I was a betting man, it would be in the next four weeks.
29:43
[SPEAKER_05]: Definitely leading up to the next decision,
29:47
[SPEAKER_05]: Trump wants whoever he's going to pick to basically be the mouthpiece against whatever Powell's going to do because you know he seems to be obviously grown grown tired with with Powell and not doing what he wants which could be right could be wrong again that like you said it's not political of what we're saying is right it's just this stuff is is going to affect the markets as a whole and is going to affect liquidity and and
30:11
[SPEAKER_05]: it's going to be a big story line so kind of teeing it up there more drama it feels like reality TV which makes a lot of sense because the president of the United States is to be reality TV star.
30:22
[SPEAKER_05]: It is quite entertaining but it's something that you do have to research and digest and bring into your whether trading or investing thesis it's a part of it.
30:32
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, and the government is is good transition because the government is going to be a big piece of Crypto this year with the Clarity Act.
30:40
[SPEAKER_05]: So the Clarity Act feels like it's taking sender stage There's a lot of tweets about it of uh kind of, you know There's a lot going on of adding stuff trying to take away stuff and I I know you saw this tweet as well Of a friend of the show Matt Matt Hogan and kind of seeing it up that the Clarity Act I love this analogy is Puxatoni Phil of the crypto winner.
30:59
[SPEAKER_05]: It keeps sticking its head out
31:01
[SPEAKER_05]: And you know, basically I think what he's saying is if he comes out and sees a shadow, if it's real, it's going to help the crypto prices.
31:09
[SPEAKER_05]: But what did you, I know you put this link on the sheet too, so I'll hand it off to you.
31:12
[SPEAKER_05]: What are your thoughts on team up the Clarity Act?
31:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so the Clarity Act is the next big catalyst that I think every crypto person should be watching.
31:22
[SPEAKER_01]: The Clarity Act for people who don't know, this is essentially trying, there's a couple of big takeaways from it, but it's essentially trying to do exactly what the name says and add clarity to the crypto market for everyone.
31:36
[SPEAKER_01]: If you remember the last four or five years, there was crypto companies adding products and then getting rid of those products because they thought they could do it and then they couldn't.
31:46
[SPEAKER_01]: There's crypto companies out there that were adding new futures and then they get sued for them.
31:52
[SPEAKER_01]: That were some that were taking away futures and trying to be compliant and then they were still getting sued and they were getting ran after by the
32:00
[SPEAKER_01]: SEC and other people.
32:02
[SPEAKER_01]: And so there was all sorts of confusion.
32:04
[SPEAKER_01]: There was coins that were being listed and then unlisted, coins that you had traded in owned and then got taken away.
32:09
[SPEAKER_01]: There was really big crypto projects that were under fire and getting sued, XRP being of a big one of them.
32:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, it was just endless, like even uni swap, you know, was getting sought after in Coinbase and a bunch of other people.
32:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And so this created confusion.
32:24
[SPEAKER_01]: And part of the new guidance on crypto is let us clarify these things.
32:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's been the overwhelming response.
32:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we talked to Coinbase.
32:33
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked to Robin Hood.
32:34
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked to the ETF providers.
32:36
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked to the big banks, the asset managers.
32:38
[SPEAKER_01]: We do all this on the podcast.
32:40
[SPEAKER_01]: The number one thing that we got over the course of those years,
32:43
[SPEAKER_01]: was guys.
32:45
[SPEAKER_01]: We're okay, like obviously we want Lucer regulation and we wanted to be more crypto friendly, but we're okay if it gets stricter, we're okay if it gets Lucer, we just wanted to be clear.
32:55
[SPEAKER_01]: We can adapt and mold ourselves to either direction, but what we can't do right now is anything because if we lean in either direction, they come after us because there's no clear regulation and it's so flexible that they can come after us no matter what, and so
33:09
[SPEAKER_01]: all these different groups and companies and banks and everyone and we're saying we just want clear regulation and that's where the clarity act comes in and so it essentially gives a couple of things predictability right and if we have predictability then you get more investment you also get
33:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Then being able to do a lot more things, you have people especially institutional investors who feel safe putting their money in crypto because there is predictability because there is no longer the uncertainty in fact the whole point of the clarity act is to do the opposite of uncertainty and give clarity So there's that and that should bring more investment you have will have reduced legal battles
33:49
[SPEAKER_01]: The of reduced legal battles, then all of these different entities or businesses or whatever they are that are doing and managing this stuff and working with it, well then they get the save on legal fees and they get to actually build and innovate and grow.
34:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And then the final thing is that what hopefully will be one of the core takeaways of the Clarity Act is that this has the potential to lower market manipulation.
34:11
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that's people are going to hear that.
34:13
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a buzzword.
34:16
[SPEAKER_01]: People will want that because you always hear all this is price manipulation.
34:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, the markets are being manipulated.
34:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, the only reason why we're still down here is because of manipulation.
34:25
[SPEAKER_01]: If you truly do believe that in the Clarity Act gets passed, this should be something to combat at least certain accents of market manipulation.
34:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And so there's three or four different ways that you could look at this.
34:35
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think all of them are positive for crypto.
34:38
[SPEAKER_01]: And this is going to be getting voted on in a couple of days.
34:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And as that chart that you, you, and I'm trying to see, yeah, we have it on the screen still.
34:46
[SPEAKER_01]: It's saying that the Clarity Act is at an 80% chance of approval this year.
34:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Now that doesn't necessarily mean it has to happen this month, right?
34:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's being talked about in a couple of days here, but at some point this year it is an 80% chance of approval, which is pretty dang high for a prediction market.
35:03
[SPEAKER_01]: The other thing is...
35:04
[SPEAKER_05]: Sorry, like so there was news coming out of the weekend of the fight, this is kind of sorry, didn't pull it up in time, but it dropped off a cliff over the weekend.
35:15
[SPEAKER_05]: So nowhere down to a 16% chance of the Clarity Act being signed into law after the weekend.
35:21
[SPEAKER_05]: There was a lot of back and forth over the coinbase.
35:25
[SPEAKER_05]: So coinbase came out and said, you know, they're going to push back and I'll bring up that tweet in a second.
35:30
[SPEAKER_05]: they're looking at you know they're fighting the banks basically because the banks don't want the stable coin yield to be able to be given to the people because they're worried about flight risk right like if you can go and get your idle money and get all the sudden two three percent yield uh you're gonna leave your bank account that's giving you literally nothing.
35:50
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, and then obviously Cynthia Lumus has been tweeting out and just kind of getting the the final things to put it through, but there's a lot of news that broke over the weekend.
35:58
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm I'm personally not well enough versed in all the negativity that happened, but I do know that coin base and I'll bring up that tweet now.
36:05
[SPEAKER_05]: I think I had it up here we go.
36:08
[SPEAKER_05]: Was saying they might pull support from the clarity axle again when you have one of the the biggest people you know the CEO of Coinbase who we said has been in DC nonstop literally doing press hits from the rotunda inside of Congress Is saying hey we've been working on this but now they're trying to change some things and we might pull our support from it.
36:27
[SPEAKER_05]: It seems to have been given brackish water from where we were just a week ago.
36:35
[SPEAKER_01]: That changes things, breaking news.
36:39
[SPEAKER_05]: And literally, in the last day, the tweet we pulled up was from January 12th at 5.27.
36:44
[SPEAKER_05]: And I just pulled up the live, Polymericadads in the last day.
36:50
[SPEAKER_05]: It's went from yesterday.
36:52
[SPEAKER_05]: It was 80%, and then today it's down to 15.
36:56
[SPEAKER_05]: So some people are making some money there trading on the Polymericates and the Cowchees.
37:00
[SPEAKER_05]: But you know, that's what happens with crypto when you're doing live events like we do here on the crypto one on podcast and you're trying to bring you guys news of what's happening.
37:09
[SPEAKER_05]: It's like there's always stuff moving around and changing right before our eyes.
37:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Wow.
37:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that'll do it.
37:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Here's the thing.
37:17
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that regardless, this is going to get settled.
37:19
[SPEAKER_01]: I think 16% for the entire year is crazy.
37:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I'd understand if the odds for January were like, percent.
37:26
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, I'm looking at this.
37:28
[SPEAKER_05]: So, Brian and I talk about the poll, you know, we bring up the trading markets all the time for the prediction markets.
37:32
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm looking at this mean, like, I think I got a hop on and get a little wager here for, yes, because odds are it's going
37:43
[SPEAKER_05]: you know, not personal financial advice, but that seems like you could maybe get a little action there for a trade.
37:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, I would agree.
37:50
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the way that I would look at this is like, I think, it being at 15%.
37:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Probably a little bit too low, a little bit of a knee-jerk reaction.
37:58
[SPEAKER_01]: But,
37:59
[SPEAKER_01]: the show goes on and again I think that both sides want this to get past so it's not like it's going to knock it past it's not like oh one side hates it one side loves it it's like no both sides want it they just think that there should be amendments that better fit to their perspective and so I'm sure they'll go back and forth and they'll come to an agreement and we'll come back to this and that'll be that but
38:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I do wonder what Matt Hogan has to say about this now, because if you go back to his tweet to you, though, he was essentially saying that this is, where is it?
38:30
[SPEAKER_01]: The Puxotani, am I saying that right?
38:32
[SPEAKER_01]: The Puxotani Phil?
38:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, Puxotani Phil.
38:34
[SPEAKER_05]: Do you know Puxotani Phil is, Brian?
38:36
[SPEAKER_01]: I do.
38:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
38:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
38:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
38:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
38:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
38:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
38:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
38:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
38:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
38:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
38:45
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
38:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, um, well, he's name like, hey, this is the Poxotani bill of the crypto winner and when I say him, you know, the clarity act, right?
38:58
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I'm curious to get his thoughts now.
39:00
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll have the monitors as ex-account and if he does give us some more thoughts saying, hey,
39:06
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Phil didn't look at his shadow or Phil did look at his shadow being the Clarity Act, getting essentially pushed down the pipeline.
39:14
[SPEAKER_01]: What does that change in how is his view on it?
39:16
[SPEAKER_01]: For people who don't know Matt Hogan is a leader in the space.
39:19
[SPEAKER_01]: He's the CIO of Bitwise who's one of the primary Bitcoin ETF providers.
39:25
[SPEAKER_01]: And they run a huge business over there and we've had him on friend of the pod.
39:30
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, here's to get his thoughts on this, you know.
39:32
[SPEAKER_01]: He's uh,
39:33
[SPEAKER_01]: It certainly does change things a little bit because people were thinking that this was going to be a really high chance of approval in Q1.
39:39
[SPEAKER_01]: And now it looks like that's no longer going to be the case.
39:42
[SPEAKER_01]: So does that push the crypto winner into a more extended period?
39:46
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
39:47
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that this is kind of just icing on the top to really send the crypto market back to the upside.
39:53
[SPEAKER_01]: But I don't think that the crypto market can't recover unless we get this right.
39:57
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a really good catalyst if we do get it.
40:00
[SPEAKER_01]: But I don't think it's unrecoverable if we don't get it.
40:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that that's too far in that direction.
40:04
[SPEAKER_05]: So I think it feels, I've been thinking about the clear acting.
40:07
[SPEAKER_05]: Kind of feels similar to the election where people were kind of waiting to see which way the election was going to go.
40:13
[SPEAKER_05]: And then once it was for sure that Trump was going to win, Bitcoin rocketed and crypto was rocketing.
40:19
[SPEAKER_05]: So it kind of, you know, I don't think it's history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it rhymes, right?
40:25
[SPEAKER_05]: So it feels something to that.
40:27
[SPEAKER_05]: But I feel like with this, there's a lot more insiders, passing legislation, right?
40:32
[SPEAKER_05]: There's a lot more insiders involved.
40:34
[SPEAKER_05]: There's a lot more knowledge to go around.
40:36
[SPEAKER_05]: And so I think you know, even if it will watch the polymarket odds, which will be a great thing to watch.
40:41
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, but at the same time, you know, I think you'll see the price action move before it's you're not going to wake up one morning in the clarity.
40:48
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm going to be passed.
40:49
[SPEAKER_05]: There's going to be a lot more movement before that.
40:51
[SPEAKER_05]: So all the more reason to subscribe.
40:54
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40:57
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40:59
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41:00
[SPEAKER_05]: And again, if you're on the audio, leave us a review, it really works.
41:03
[SPEAKER_05]: But huge, huge chat today, we got Grant, we got Zen, we got Golf Ad, we got Michael, make nuts in the chat saying that he's going on to calcium polymarkets to places, wages as we speak, Kevin's here.
41:18
[SPEAKER_05]: We had some questions, so we'll do the questions at the end, but it's a perfect transition into this clip of Kathy Wood that I pulled, which is something that we've been talking about.
41:27
[SPEAKER_05]: Me specifically, my take of the year was, hey, this administration is going to lean heavy into crypto policies at some point this year because of the midterms, and they know how successful they were getting the crypto vote, the crypto community vote, which is I think going to be another, you know, another election cycle of trying to go after that demographic.
41:48
[SPEAKER_05]: And so I was saying, hey, at some point, you know, the Clarity Act is one thing or buying some Bitcoin for the Strategic Reserve, you know, obviously they have to do it at no cost of the taxpayer, but figuring out a way to do that.
42:00
[SPEAKER_05]: I think there's something big coming in 26 that is going to appeal to the crypto voters, specifically for midterms.
42:06
[SPEAKER_05]: And I've been kind of saying that now for a couple months, and I saw this clip of Kathy Wood, and I thought it was a similar take.
42:12
[SPEAKER_05]: And, you know, I appreciate Kathy listening to the show.
42:15
[SPEAKER_05]: and taking my thoughts and kind of agreeing with me.
42:19
[SPEAKER_05]: So let's listen to Kathy.
42:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, 2026 is in the U.S. the midterm elections.
42:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And President Trump does not want to be a lame duck.
42:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So I have a feeling that he is going to work with his crypto and AISR.
42:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Right?
42:42
[SPEAKER_00]: To do a few things.
42:44
[SPEAKER_00]: One, make sure we get that de minimists ruling through, make sure.
42:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So because, you know, grass roots is where a lot of what we've been talking about is going to happen.
42:57
[SPEAKER_00]: But also, it seems as though there's been
43:03
[SPEAKER_00]: about actually buying Bitcoin for the strategic reserve.
43:08
[SPEAKER_00]: So far, it's confiscated.
43:10
[SPEAKER_00]: The original intent was to own a million Bitcoin.
43:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So I actually think they will start buying because I think this will help Trump in a couple of ways.
43:22
[SPEAKER_00]: The midterm elections, part of the reason he won the presidency, I think, was the crypto community.
43:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.
43:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And another reason, of course, is his family is all in on Bitcoin and other crypto assets and they have, you know, we talked about the deaths earlier.
43:44
[SPEAKER_00]: They've kind of fallen apart this year.
43:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think he's got all kinds of reasons to do this, but the most important one is he does not want to be a lame doc.
43:55
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, credit to me.
43:57
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't know.
43:59
[SPEAKER_05]: Pretty, pretty, I love Kathy Wood.
44:02
[SPEAKER_05]: And I don't know.
44:04
[SPEAKER_05]: Just feels good to have a take out there and then, you know, big, big names in the space start having the same take.
44:09
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, this was dated from last week.
44:12
[SPEAKER_05]: And, you know, I've been talking about this for a month now.
44:15
[SPEAKER_05]: So, yeah.
44:16
[SPEAKER_05]: But it all it all makes sense.
44:18
[SPEAKER_05]: Again, we've said it on the show.
44:19
[SPEAKER_05]: She basically said the same thing.
44:21
[SPEAKER_05]: I did go and pull up that Hogan's latest tweet basically talking about how it seems that the banks, the old updates banks have won this round on stable could coin yield for now.
44:35
[SPEAKER_05]: I guess that's a draft into the Clarity Act page 189.
44:38
[SPEAKER_05]: It says companies cannot pay interest just for holding balances.
44:42
[SPEAKER_05]: You can't earn rewards, but only if they're tied to opening a count or activity like making transactions and staking.
44:48
[SPEAKER_05]: So idle cash, I guess, in these stable coin realm, is not eligible for yield according to this update on page 189, and then, you know, Matt Hogan reacts.
45:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think that Kathy Woods going back to that point.
45:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I think she has a me and her right because it's your original take.
45:06
[SPEAKER_01]: And she took it from you.
45:07
[SPEAKER_01]: She saw the crypto run down and then went on there and said it because of you.
45:11
[SPEAKER_01]: That's actually what happened, uh, but no, you know, I think that you guys do have a good point that with Kathy and all the stuff around crypto right now,
45:22
[SPEAKER_01]: It almost feels like Krypton needs a little bit of a bump, because she makes the point that a lot of people voted for, like part of the reason he won the election is because people were voting on the crypto industry.
45:31
[SPEAKER_01]: But now the crypto industry has probably been the worst for forming industry since he got elected.
45:37
[SPEAKER_01]: And so it kind of makes the question of, could that hurt him, could people change their mind?
45:43
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, these are all just thoughts that are going into my head.
45:46
[SPEAKER_01]: of if nothing changes I would imagine that that's kind of the case right I would imagine if nothing changes and nothing happens then you probably lose votes because of the way that it's performed against everything else and so the way to remedy that is your original take to you though is hey something needs to happen maybe we buy more Bitcoin maybe do we do more crypto legislation which they have done a lot right it's not to say all they haven't done anything
46:10
[SPEAKER_01]: a lot has happened.
46:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Eight on is happened in the last year.
46:13
[SPEAKER_01]: It's just unfortunate that prices haven't done as well to kind of follow all the positive catalysts.
46:19
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe something will happen.
46:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I almost think something has to happen from that end.
46:25
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, maybe it's the treasury, maybe it's something else.
46:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, again, I'm biased over here.
46:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I would love to see money get used to buy Bitcoin, take my tax dollars, take the tariff money and put that into it.
46:39
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't care.
46:40
[SPEAKER_01]: I just want to see them used.
46:41
[SPEAKER_01]: So.
46:42
[SPEAKER_01]: That's fine, that's what I think.
46:44
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, yeah, sometimes you've got to go online and pump your own bags.
46:47
[SPEAKER_05]: Speaking of great, speaking of great takes before we take some questions in the chat.
46:53
[SPEAKER_05]: Uh, you, I mean, this is why you listen to crypto 101.
46:56
[SPEAKER_05]: Nearly 10 minutes ago, we were looking at the Clarity X sign in the law.
47:00
[SPEAKER_05]: Breaking news the last day went from 80 to 15%.
47:02
[SPEAKER_05]: I gave it out at 15%.
47:05
[SPEAKER_05]: I was like, that looks like a good buy.
47:07
[SPEAKER_05]: I already back up to 21% Brendan.
47:09
[SPEAKER_05]: I already back up to 21%.
47:11
[SPEAKER_05]: Am I a market or we market moving or is this is legal and up?
47:14
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
47:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, we live We did this when Bitcoin was pushing the all-time highs if you remember on a hundred k we pumped it We were the reason it went over there.
47:23
[SPEAKER_01]: We we pumped it before will pump the odds But now you know obviously we're joking in all jokes aside, but Tiva I got a real question on this for people who don't know I'm not a sports better
47:33
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm the first time I ever bet was when I saw Tiva for the first time and I was meeting the guys You know the guy's got me to bet on a football game or something like that.
47:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we did a parlay.
47:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not even sure But my question for this is
47:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Is this like, does the, the, the prediction markets are does Polly Market work in the same way, where you can buy in at 15% and then you can sell out at 40% or do you have to run the bet until.
48:00
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, no, yeah, if there's losers liquidity in that market, you can sell out at a profit before it results really what happens.
48:07
[SPEAKER_05]: now traditionally in sports betting like if you go to a casino and you just buy you know hey I want the Patriots to win and I can't cash out the the apps if you're doing any of the apps gambling there's some time some of them offer cashouts but it is different it's not the same so in in sports gambling you're betting against the casino you're playing the house and that's how the odds are aligned and and that's why all these probably marketing cows you're getting legalized
48:34
[SPEAKER_05]: You're not playing against the house, you're playing against the market, you're betting against other people.
48:39
[SPEAKER_05]: So the market's created crowdsource.
48:41
[SPEAKER_05]: So it's not technically the same as gambling.
48:45
[SPEAKER_05]: I like it.
48:46
[SPEAKER_05]: But yeah, I mean, look at that.
48:47
[SPEAKER_05]: We gave it out at 15% already up to 21 market movers here.
48:51
[SPEAKER_05]: It cryptocurrency 101.
48:53
[SPEAKER_05]: So let's see, let's get some questions here.
48:57
[SPEAKER_05]: Zen style.
48:59
[SPEAKER_05]: What are your thoughts on the Supreme Court ruling?
49:02
[SPEAKER_05]: If they overturn the Trump tariff revenue, will that be bears for the crypto market?
49:08
[SPEAKER_05]: It's a great question.
49:09
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it is just my take off the top medics.
49:13
[SPEAKER_05]: I have thought about this is maybe it'll give the market's indigestion so you're going to get volatility.
49:19
[SPEAKER_05]: Just like any big decision that happens.
49:21
[SPEAKER_05]: But I don't know that I'm not economists.
49:25
[SPEAKER_05]: I've never studied tariff so I don't have a great take on the specifics just as like a holistic view of it.
49:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay, this Supreme Court's going to overrule it.
49:34
[SPEAKER_05]: So then so what?
49:35
[SPEAKER_05]: So then the America has to start like
49:38
[SPEAKER_05]: We have to start writing checks back to countries like that.
49:41
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't think that's going to happen.
49:42
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't, like if it gets overruled, then it's like, okay, you can't do this anymore.
49:49
[SPEAKER_05]: What kind of rules like the ruling would be.
49:52
[SPEAKER_05]: It's not you're going to have to go and take all the tariff money and go give it back.
49:55
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't, I don't think the administration would do that, even if they were told to do it.
50:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't do it like that.
50:01
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, they wouldn't do it.
50:03
[SPEAKER_05]: So it just, I think again, Brendan said it earlier.
50:06
[SPEAKER_05]: It's the uncertainty.
50:07
[SPEAKER_05]: See, the, oh, what does this mean when it when it first gets announced?
50:10
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't, and I don't think it would be crypto-specific.
50:11
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it would be markets as a whole would, would be like, oh my god, what does this mean?
50:15
[SPEAKER_05]: And there would be some volatility.
50:16
[SPEAKER_05]: And then whatever the outcome truly is, I don't think it really matters one one way or the other.
50:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, exactly man.
50:24
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you hit the nail in the head.
50:25
[SPEAKER_01]: The uncertainty is the big thing there and Yeah, I don't know if it would be a bad thing.
50:30
[SPEAKER_01]: If it does, it would just be because hey, it spooks the markets.
50:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Or yeah, it spooks the markets and maybe there's some some collateral damage that comes out of that.
50:44
[SPEAKER_01]: And that seems to be kind of the way I've seen people it's hard.
50:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Originally it was like, hey, this would be really bad for the markets.
50:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Now I've seen people saying, hey, it's gonna be good.
50:53
[SPEAKER_01]: And so now I see people kind of taking a 50-50 split of some people saying, oh, if they reverse everything, it'd be so bad and it would create so much uncertainty about what's possible.
51:03
[SPEAKER_01]: And then there's gonna be legal battles and that's gonna create more uncertainty.
51:06
[SPEAKER_01]: And then I see another group of people saying, hey, if this does happen and they do go the route to Evo,
51:11
[SPEAKER_01]: where money has to go back to these companies and back to these countries.
51:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Then they're going to say, okay, well, now they'll suddenly have all this extra cash that they didn't have before and that's good for these companies.
51:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, their next earnings call is going to be awesome.
51:24
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's a lot of crypto companies in that same boat as well.
51:27
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I've seen people start at the starting to take both sides of the argument.
51:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think crypto is right in there with it.
51:34
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that you could look at it from either lens.
51:37
[SPEAKER_01]: My thing is, you know,
51:40
[SPEAKER_01]: we just need a clearer picture.
51:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's two or two far out to speculate, you know, what is going to be the good and the bad.
51:48
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we'll have to wait and see, which I know isn't really what people want to hear.
51:54
[SPEAKER_01]: But there's just too many uncertainties, right?
51:57
[SPEAKER_01]: The uncertainty is is, okay, well, if it gets shot down, the whole terrifying thing gets shot down in court,
52:07
[SPEAKER_01]: the repercussions are right right now I guess nothing changes but if it gets reversed we need to know what the next steps are after the reversal we just don't know that yet that's what the uncertainty is so I think we just have to wait and see I know that's not what people want to hear but it's the truth.
52:24
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, and we're going to cover it for everybody together.
52:27
[SPEAKER_05]: So in awesome episode, it was great to have you back today, Brendan.
52:31
[SPEAKER_05]: I know we'll be doing a lot more with you this month.
52:33
[SPEAKER_05]: We have some awesome one scheduled, a lot more technical analysis.
52:36
[SPEAKER_05]: Again, if you're interested in kind of learning more about the TA and joining Brendan for his live sessions, I did put the link below.
52:42
[SPEAKER_05]: Nothing even to buy today.
52:44
[SPEAKER_05]: Just check out the link enter your email to get Brendan's trade updates and alerts And then you'll be kind of in the know for when spots open up for his course Again, give this video a thumbs up guys.
52:55
[SPEAKER_05]: The chat was so active today.
52:56
[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you, Jen
52:59
[SPEAKER_05]: electric now saying it was electric yeah make nuts in here he's he's already on polymarket buying the dip there the blazing band it here is then was here grant was here uh let's see who else golf Michael uh the blazing bandit Catherine thank you for coming uh lose that milta i don't know if i'm saying that
53:20
[SPEAKER_05]: malicious something.
53:21
[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you, man.
53:22
[SPEAKER_05]: That was awesome.
53:23
[SPEAKER_05]: Great live crypto and coffee this Tuesday morning.
53:27
[SPEAKER_05]: Thanks to everybody who's listening.
53:28
[SPEAKER_05]: We're going to be back later in the week.
53:30
[SPEAKER_05]: I'll put it once we figure out the time.
53:31
[SPEAKER_05]: I'll put it in the community post.
53:34
[SPEAKER_05]: But that's all for now.
53:34
[SPEAKER_05]: So I hope everybody has a great rest of your day and thanks for joining us.
53:37
[SPEAKER_05]: Bye everybody.