Latest / Toadstool Sports / NFL Week 6 Best Bets
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
- 0:05Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
- 0:08Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
- 0:11Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
- 0:14Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that. I just
- 0:17Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
- 0:20Speaker 1: anything like this, Man, with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
- 0:25Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
- 0:29Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man, with bookends the slump
- 0:34Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached into peak. Actually,
- 0:40Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my broins hat. Man, I don't
- 0:42Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape?
- 0:45Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
- 0:47Speaker 1: It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
- 0:51Speaker 1: don't know what day is anymore. I don't even know
- 0:53Speaker 1: what data is anymore. Man, back with you after the
- 0:57Speaker 1: worst day that I can possibly have, Back with you
- 1:00Speaker 1: as I always am until I die, at least oh
- 1:04Speaker 1: and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well
- 1:07Speaker 1: for me. Oh and five the worst month that I've
- 1:10Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
- 1:13Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. To
- 1:15Speaker 1: the slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
- 1:21Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
- 1:24Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it all.
- 1:33Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? It's towed back with you? Better off
- 1:36Speaker 1: d ed. This is NFL Week six? Is that what
- 1:39Speaker 1: this is? I don't know. I don't know anything anymore. Man,
- 1:44Speaker 1: don't even want to talk about today. I mean, I'm
- 1:46Speaker 1: gonna talk about it tomorrow morning. Uh. We started off
- 1:50Speaker 1: looking like it was again like why does this keep
- 1:52Speaker 1: fucking happening on Saturday? It looks like we're just gonna
- 1:54Speaker 1: absolutely wreck the board. We were uh out to a
- 1:57Speaker 1: four and one start, and it's gonna be a foreign
- 2:00Speaker 1: four a day now with a couple of moneyline favorites
- 2:02Speaker 1: going down in the later portion here, which is gonna
- 2:04Speaker 1: completely fuck the day over. So it's gonna be a
- 2:07Speaker 1: losing day because of that. And it should have been
- 2:09Speaker 1: five and one because of fucking Auburn getting screwed by
- 2:14Speaker 1: the refs and what was a wire to wire cover? Yeah,
- 2:17Speaker 1: this is a new peak, all right, We're gonna talk
- 2:20Speaker 1: about NFL here. Fuck today. The only way that I
- 2:24Speaker 1: wound up with a winning day, and I was at
- 2:25Speaker 1: the fucking Anaheim Sucks. Come back and win this game,
- 2:29Speaker 1: even though they're dominating the game statistically, but they're down
- 2:31Speaker 1: five to three in the fucking second period. I don't
- 2:35Speaker 1: know how when you have more shots, more hits, you're
- 2:38Speaker 1: the better team throughout the game. You're losing five to
- 2:40Speaker 1: three before the third period even begins. Fuck you the
- 2:44Speaker 1: Anaheim Fox, but they don't. Fuck let's go to the
- 2:48Speaker 1: breakdown already. I don't care we're gonna talk about the NFL.
- 2:53Speaker 1: I'm gonna have three plays here. It all fucking sucked.
- 2:58Speaker 1: Auburn got fucking for multiple times. They had a touchdown
- 3:03Speaker 1: get called off, they get taken off the board. Clearly
- 3:06Speaker 1: he'd crossed the plane. The fucking Georgia fans are all
- 3:09Speaker 1: saying that he actually fumbled the ball and it should
- 3:10Speaker 1: have been a fumble return the other way. No, because
- 3:13Speaker 1: he crossed the plane before the ball was out, should
- 3:16Speaker 1: have been a fucking touchdown. Instead, they get no points.
- 3:19Speaker 1: And then Kirby Smart pulled that bullshit where he obviously
- 3:22Speaker 1: called the time out. I mean, they showed him on
- 3:24Speaker 1: camera calling it time out, and then he flips out
- 3:27Speaker 1: and the refs, Oh, no way, he didn't call the
- 3:29Speaker 1: timeout anymore. Yeah, fuck you, he obviously did. The refs
- 3:35Speaker 1: handed that game to fucking Georgia. Auburn was winning the
- 3:37Speaker 1: game ten to nothing, and then they never scored again,
- 3:40Speaker 1: and they were still only down three in the fourth quarter,
- 3:43Speaker 1: and then they wound up not even covering because they
- 3:45Speaker 1: give up a touchdown in the final like two minutes
- 3:47Speaker 1: of the game, only because Auburn had timeouts left. If
- 3:52Speaker 1: they didn't have any timeouts left, Georgia could have just
- 3:54Speaker 1: run the clock out at that point, but no, and
- 3:57Speaker 1: then Auburn was in Georgia terror again. They had a
- 4:00Speaker 1: chance to still back door it at the end, and
- 4:02Speaker 1: they turned it over I think on a fourth and
- 4:05Speaker 1: one play that they didn't convert. Just ever, it could
- 4:08Speaker 1: all just get fucked, absolutely get fucked a foreign one
- 4:12Speaker 1: day that was about to go to five and one
- 4:13Speaker 1: with Auburn and now it's gonna be a four and
- 4:15Speaker 1: four day. Just fuck off. And the fucking Avalanche lost
- 4:20Speaker 1: in a shootout, by the way, So we lost that
- 4:23Speaker 1: as a fucking favorite. And they dominated the game statistically
- 4:26Speaker 1: as well, and they were never losing my more than
- 4:30Speaker 1: one goal in the game, although you could argue that
- 4:31Speaker 1: in a close game, well you shouldn't have played the favorite,
- 4:34Speaker 1: but statistically they dominated the fucking game in hits and shots,
- 4:38Speaker 1: so I don't think I had that handicap wrong either.
- 4:41Speaker 1: It can all get fucked NFL. I'm not gonna talk
- 4:45Speaker 1: about the stupid piece of shit London game here because
- 4:50Speaker 1: that's gonna be one of my best bets, which is
- 4:53Speaker 1: really even that's just stupid. Why the fuck do I
- 4:56Speaker 1: have a best bet in a fucking London game. It
- 4:58Speaker 1: worked out for me once over the last couple of years,
- 5:01Speaker 1: and it did not work out when I did it
- 5:02Speaker 1: last year, but I'm doing it anyway. It's gonna be
- 5:04Speaker 1: a worst bet this time. How about that next game up,
- 5:07Speaker 1: Brown Steelers, another best bet of mine, Another worst bet,
- 5:11Speaker 1: an absolute turd, so we'll uh, we'll wait on that
- 5:14Speaker 1: one too. Uh. I actually have a lot of strong
- 5:17Speaker 1: opinions on these games. Cardinals, Colts. We'll start with this
- 5:22Speaker 1: game in the one PM slead here. This is a
- 5:23Speaker 1: fucking great game here, yeah, one dumb yeah, I mean,
- 5:28Speaker 1: everybody's pretty fucking retired it over there. I'm pretty sure.
- 5:31Speaker 1: I mean the people they vote for certainly are so
- 5:34Speaker 1: the voter, the voting base. I mean, it's yeah, democracy,
- 5:37Speaker 1: the people they are retarded, Uh, cardinals, colts. As you've noticed,
- 5:41Speaker 1: this game has gone up from a three and a
- 5:43Speaker 1: half to a nine and a half here, and actually,
- 5:45Speaker 1: should I bring up the hold on, let me bring
- 5:47Speaker 1: up the what is this NFL Week six NFL look aheadlines?
- 5:53Speaker 1: Hold on, I'm gonna bring it up because I forgot
- 5:55Speaker 1: to do it the last couple of weeks. It's just, uh,
- 5:58Speaker 1: it's just a good like double check. I mean, I'm
- 5:59Speaker 1: not gonn to change what my plays are, but hold on,
- 6:02Speaker 1: let me bring this up here. Do we even have
- 6:07Speaker 1: it here? Usually it's on CBS Sports. Man. I don't
- 6:10Speaker 1: even know if I can find it that quickly. Usually
- 6:12Speaker 1: I can Week six look Ahead? What the fuck? Nope,
- 6:20Speaker 1: I don't think. I don't think I find it. This
- 6:22Speaker 1: is ridiculous. I was gonna look it up on CBS
- 6:24Speaker 1: Sports here, which, by the way, my ad blocker continues
- 6:27Speaker 1: to just automatically turn back on even though I whitelisted
- 6:30Speaker 1: CBS Sports just to get around that bullshit. No, it's
- 6:35Speaker 1: not working. Fuck it, We're not even gonna look at
- 6:37Speaker 1: it right now. I don't even give a shit. You've
- 6:40Speaker 1: noticed that this line on the Colts has gone up
- 6:42Speaker 1: from three and a half to nine and a half.
- 6:44Speaker 1: So why is that. Well, it's not just because the
- 6:48Speaker 1: Cardinals lost to the fucking Titans last week and the
- 6:51Speaker 1: Colts looked absolutely ridiculous in a blowout win of the Raiders,
- 6:56Speaker 1: which I think was like forty to six or something.
- 7:00Speaker 1: But part of the reason why the line has moved
- 7:02Speaker 1: like this is because the Cardinals they're going with a
- 7:04Speaker 1: backup quarterback here, Kyler Murray is injured. Do we really
- 7:09Speaker 1: think that Kyler Murray, though, is worth six and a
- 7:12Speaker 1: half points. I don't know that they really moved the
- 7:14Speaker 1: line entirely just because of the Murray thing. I think
- 7:16Speaker 1: some of it is because of what these teams looked
- 7:18Speaker 1: like last week. So let's say they moved it like
- 7:20Speaker 1: maybe five points because of the Kyler Murray injury. Do
- 7:23Speaker 1: we really think there's that much of a drop off
- 7:25Speaker 1: from Kyler Murray to his backup, which, by the way,
- 7:27Speaker 1: is Jacoby Brissett, who is a veteran quarterback and he's
- 7:31Speaker 1: known for not turning the ball over. So I don't
- 7:35Speaker 1: think that's that much of a drop off, man. Jacoby Brissett,
- 7:37Speaker 1: He's used to the fucking drill. He knows it. And
- 7:40Speaker 1: I seem to remember because I am a Colts fan
- 7:42Speaker 1: that Jacoby Brissett when he was with the Raiders came
- 7:45Speaker 1: in a couple of years ago to Indianapolis and led
- 7:48Speaker 1: the Raiders to an outright win as a seven and
- 7:50Speaker 1: a half win underdog when the Colts needed to win
- 7:53Speaker 1: either that game or win is a huge favorite against
- 7:56Speaker 1: Jacksonville in the final two weeks. One win and they
- 7:59Speaker 1: make the playoffs. They lost both games. So Jacoby Brissett,
- 8:02Speaker 1: he's played here before, he's won year against the Colts before,
- 8:05Speaker 1: he's used to it. I don't think he's gonna be intimidated.
- 8:08Speaker 1: I think this line is gone way too far. I
- 8:11Speaker 1: mean I sounds like I have a strong opinion on it.
- 8:13Speaker 1: I mean I do, even though it's not gonna be
- 8:14Speaker 1: one of my plays. I think this is one of
- 8:16Speaker 1: the stronger games that is not on my card here.
- 8:19Speaker 1: I would take the points with the Cardinals in this one.
- 8:23Speaker 1: The line is just way too high, man. Obviously, the
- 8:25Speaker 1: value is just on the Cardinals here. And it's an
- 8:27Speaker 1: injured player theory spot on top like which I kind
- 8:30Speaker 1: of just insinuated again with the injured player theory spot.
- 8:33Speaker 1: When you lose your star quarterback or whatever. The first
- 8:37Speaker 1: game he's out, the team steps up their game without
- 8:39Speaker 1: that guy there because they know they have to step
- 8:41Speaker 1: up their game. Plus you get the value on the line.
- 8:44Speaker 1: So that's the spot the Cardinals are in. Nobody's gonna
- 8:46Speaker 1: want the fucking Cardinals after they lost to the Tennessee Titans. Man,
- 8:49Speaker 1: but if you look at what happened in that game,
- 8:51Speaker 1: I mean, Arizona should have won the game. They were
- 8:54Speaker 1: winning twenty one to three. They're winning twenty one to six.
- 8:56Speaker 1: I think in the fourth quarter of the game. The
- 8:59Speaker 1: Titans had a fumble return touchdown in the game. They
- 9:03Speaker 1: also had a of course, there was the Demarcado fumble
- 9:07Speaker 1: into the end zone by the Cardinals just took another
- 9:10Speaker 1: They were gonna go up twenty eight to six with
- 9:12Speaker 1: that touchdown. It got taken off the board. So that
- 9:15Speaker 1: was another play that the Cardinals fucked up. So this
- 9:18Speaker 1: game it was misleading. Man. The Titans honestly didn't even
- 9:21Speaker 1: play well enough to win this game. Cardinals outgained them
- 9:25Speaker 1: by whatever that is, thirty three yards. It's not much,
- 9:27Speaker 1: but it's still something. They lost the turnover battle. Cardinals
- 9:31Speaker 1: probably should have won that game. They were not as
- 9:34Speaker 1: bad as they looked in that game. And the Cardinals,
- 9:36Speaker 1: by the way, all three of their losses have been
- 9:40Speaker 1: by three or fewer points. And you're getting nine nine
- 9:43Speaker 1: and a half now with the Cardinals, and they haven't
- 9:44Speaker 1: lost to any team by more than three. I know
- 9:47Speaker 1: it's Jacoby Brissett in there now, but still the Cardinals
- 9:50Speaker 1: have played all these games close. Man, at the very
- 9:52Speaker 1: least at San Francisco and against Seattle, playing those games close,
- 9:56Speaker 1: losing by one three and then one again last week.
- 9:59Speaker 1: But it's like everybody's just looking at what they did
- 10:01Speaker 1: last week. They lost to the Titans, so nobody's gonna
- 10:04Speaker 1: want them. Everybody's gonna want Indianapolis. Here, they're three and
- 10:06Speaker 1: zero at home, they're four and one on the season.
- 10:10Speaker 1: They played a fairly easy schedule so far though. Okay,
- 10:12Speaker 1: they played Miami, I mean Denver not an easy game,
- 10:15Speaker 1: but they kind of got lucky with that leverage call
- 10:18Speaker 1: at the end of the game. They beat Tennessee. Who
- 10:20Speaker 1: cares they should have beaten the Rams, but they did lose.
- 10:22Speaker 1: I mean, the Rams were the most difficult opponent they face.
- 10:25Speaker 1: And then they beat the Raiders last week, who have
- 10:27Speaker 1: just not gotten any of their shit together, and they
- 10:30Speaker 1: looked really good in doing so, forty to six. So
- 10:33Speaker 1: nobody's gonna nobody's gonna play Arizona in this game, man.
- 10:36Speaker 1: And Indianapolis does have a game against the Chargers up next,
- 10:40Speaker 1: which is a at least a bigger conference game at
- 10:43Speaker 1: the very least. And I do think that the people
- 10:47Speaker 1: who are retired, they're gonna go look and see that
- 10:50Speaker 1: India absolutely erased Tennessee on the road forty one to twenty,
- 10:54Speaker 1: whereas Tennessee went into Arizona and beat them on the road.
- 10:57Speaker 1: So it's like, if Indy could crush Tennessee on the
- 11:00Speaker 1: out of Tennessee beats Arizona in Arizona, then of course
- 11:04Speaker 1: Indy's gonna just absolutely annihilate Arizona here, right, That's gonna
- 11:07Speaker 1: be another handicapping technique that the public uses here. I'm
- 11:12Speaker 1: not gonna buy that at all. I'm almost talking myself
- 11:15Speaker 1: into a play on Arizona here. I like Arizona plus
- 11:18Speaker 1: the points at this one man, that's the way that
- 11:20Speaker 1: I would do it. Do I should we do it?
- 11:23Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's dude, I don't want to keep
- 11:26Speaker 1: giving out all these like extra plays on the fly,
- 11:28Speaker 1: like after I talk it over and I'm like, man,
- 11:30Speaker 1: I really like display, you know what. Ah man, I'm
- 11:34Speaker 1: so tempted to do it. I'm thinking about it. Oh man, yeah,
- 11:40Speaker 1: oh man, I kind of want to do it. It's
- 11:44Speaker 1: so close. I won't do it. I'll stop myself, but man, man,
- 11:49Speaker 1: I kind of want to do it. It's close. It
- 11:51Speaker 1: is really close. Arizona plus the points is the way
- 11:54Speaker 1: that I would lead in that game. Rams Ravens. This
- 11:57Speaker 1: is another one. This is another game where the line
- 12:00Speaker 1: is just out of control. You want me to give
- 12:02Speaker 1: it a temptation? Oh boy? All right? You know what? Yeah,
- 12:09Speaker 1: what's the line on this nine and a half? All right, fine,
- 12:12Speaker 1: let's do it. Nobody's gonna nobody's gonna want this, man.
- 12:15Speaker 1: I mean at some point, I mean, the Colts they're
- 12:18Speaker 1: not quite as good as they look. Man. So there
- 12:20Speaker 1: you go, Arizona nine and a half. It's an early
- 12:22Speaker 1: best bet. We'll have four plays because I can't control
- 12:27Speaker 1: myself at all. Absolutely absurd to be doing this, but
- 12:30Speaker 1: that's what we're gonna do, all right. We got Rams Ravens.
- 12:35Speaker 1: The Rams are seven and a half point favorite at Baltimore.
- 12:37Speaker 1: I mean, come on, man, Baltimore. I know I said
- 12:40Speaker 1: last week I thought Baltimore was gonna be in that game,
- 12:44Speaker 1: and I thought they were a good teaser play last
- 12:46Speaker 1: week at the very least, and I thought they would
- 12:47Speaker 1: win the game. That did not happen. But now the
- 12:50Speaker 1: Ravens are seven point underdog at home to the Rams.
- 12:54Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, the Rams are better than the Texans,
- 12:56Speaker 1: but still remember the Rams, by the way, they were
- 12:58Speaker 1: only what were they? They were a three point favorite
- 13:01Speaker 1: in the opening week right against the Texans, although since
- 13:04Speaker 1: then the Texas have lost a bunch of games. But
- 13:07Speaker 1: if that line was indicating the Rams are even a
- 13:11Speaker 1: little bit better, right, like maybe they're one two points
- 13:14Speaker 1: better than than the Texans are, then the Texans last
- 13:18Speaker 1: week were like a one point favorite in this matchup.
- 13:20Speaker 1: So how the fuck are the Rams are seven point favorite?
- 13:23Speaker 1: I mean, obviously the value in this game is on
- 13:26Speaker 1: the Ravens. The only way that you can look to
- 13:27Speaker 1: play this game is to take the points with the Ravens.
- 13:30Speaker 1: By the way, I think I forgot to mention eighty
- 13:31Speaker 1: two percent of tickets, only seventy seven percent of the
- 13:33Speaker 1: cash on the Colts. So the Colts are very public
- 13:36Speaker 1: and the money is saying otherwise. This game Rams eighty
- 13:41Speaker 1: two percent tickets, only seventy two percent of the cash
- 13:43Speaker 1: on the Rams. The Rams are a public road favorite.
- 13:47Speaker 1: Here again, if I was gonna play this game, I
- 13:50Speaker 1: would take the Ravens. The Rams. They're coming off a
- 13:53Speaker 1: big divisional game, man, but they do have extra rest
- 13:55Speaker 1: because that was Thursday night. They did lose as a
- 13:58Speaker 1: similar favorite. By the way, that was similar to this game.
- 14:00Speaker 1: They're playing two injured quarterbacks in a row. They just faced.
- 14:05Speaker 1: They're playing two teams with the injr quarterbacks. They just
- 14:07Speaker 1: faced Mac Jones on Thursday night. And the Rams were
- 14:10Speaker 1: too heavy a favorite in that one. And I told
- 14:12Speaker 1: you that I thought the line was way too high
- 14:15Speaker 1: that it made sense to take the forty nine Ers
- 14:17Speaker 1: in that one if you were gonna play it. The
- 14:18Speaker 1: forty nine Ers won the game outright, But that was
- 14:21Speaker 1: a big divisional game, so I could see it kind
- 14:23Speaker 1: of going both ways here, right, Like the Rams, it
- 14:25Speaker 1: was a tough divisional game, and sometimes when you come
- 14:27Speaker 1: off a game like that, you might be a little
- 14:29Speaker 1: bit hungover. But they do have extra rest because they
- 14:31Speaker 1: play on Thursday and they lost as a favorite, So
- 14:35Speaker 1: sometimes when a team loses as a favorite, they can
- 14:37Speaker 1: get a little bit. They can use that extra time
- 14:39Speaker 1: to refocus. So, like, which one is it gonna be here?
- 14:43Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure, but I lean to the former,
- 14:46Speaker 1: like that being a tough game against the forty nine
- 14:48Speaker 1: ers to them being a little bit hungover. And the
- 14:51Speaker 1: Rams do have a little bit of a look ahead
- 14:52Speaker 1: here potentially because they got to go play in London
- 14:55Speaker 1: in London next week against the de facto London jag
- 15:00Speaker 1: next week, sorry, the London Jaguars next week. That's what
- 15:05Speaker 1: they have next. So, as crazy as it sounds, they
- 15:08Speaker 1: might overlook Baltimore in this game, and it does kind
- 15:11Speaker 1: of look like a sandwich spot the Rams. One of
- 15:14Speaker 1: their two losses did come on the road alreadyo that
- 15:16Speaker 1: it was a game they should have won. Really against
- 15:18Speaker 1: Philadelphia Baltimore, it's gonna be Cooper Rush again. And one
- 15:22Speaker 1: other hesitation that I do have with wanting to play
- 15:25Speaker 1: Baltimore here is that their injured player theory game was
- 15:28Speaker 1: last week. So Lamar Jackson got hurt in the game
- 15:31Speaker 1: against Kansas City, right, and then Cooper Rush played last week,
- 15:35Speaker 1: and that should have been the injured player theory spot
- 15:36Speaker 1: where the team steps up their game to you know,
- 15:40Speaker 1: a combat or to a compensate for the injured player
- 15:43Speaker 1: being out. And they got absolutely just destroyed. I don't
- 15:47Speaker 1: even want to say boat race because they weren't even
- 15:49Speaker 1: in the race. They got annihilated forty four to ten
- 15:52Speaker 1: by Houston. It wasn't even exactly that misleading. I mean,
- 15:56Speaker 1: there were turnovers in the game too, but let me see. Well, yeah,
- 16:01Speaker 1: so Baltimore was minus three in turnover so that was
- 16:03Speaker 1: part of the reason why the score was so bad.
- 16:05Speaker 1: Although they did also get out game by two hundred yards.
- 16:08Speaker 1: So Baltimore kind of looking like Cincinnati there with Jake Brown.
- 16:12Speaker 1: And not only do they lose the turnover battle, but
- 16:14Speaker 1: they use the yard They lose the yardage battle terribly.
- 16:17Speaker 1: But I think Baltimore is gonna show something here, man.
- 16:20Speaker 1: I mean, they're one in four. It's kind of slipping
- 16:23Speaker 1: away from them here, man. I mean what happened last
- 16:25Speaker 1: week is absolutely absurd, which actually I'll talk about when
- 16:28Speaker 1: I talk about the Pittsburgh game, but it's it's really
- 16:31Speaker 1: really ridiculous what is happening in this division here. But
- 16:34Speaker 1: I still think Baltimore can win this division. Man, They're
- 16:37Speaker 1: still the favorite to win the division. So at some point, like,
- 16:41Speaker 1: I still don't think Baltimore is a bad team. I mean,
- 16:44Speaker 1: they lost to Buffalo, Detroit, Kansas City, those are good teams,
- 16:47Speaker 1: and then they lost the last game without Lamar Jackson.
- 16:51Speaker 1: So I mean, I still don't see these teams being
- 16:52Speaker 1: that competitive in the AFC North, even Pittsburgh. I know
- 16:56Speaker 1: they're they're stealing, and they're Mike, They're Mike Tomlin. They're stealing,
- 17:00Speaker 1: they're stealering, but they're stealing wins. Again, that's what they
- 17:04Speaker 1: do under Mike Tomlin. But I still think Baltimore at
- 17:06Speaker 1: some point they can get back in this thing and
- 17:09Speaker 1: take the division. I'm not saying they're gonna win this
- 17:12Speaker 1: game outright here, because that would be crazy. But Cooper Rush,
- 17:15Speaker 1: I mean, he's got at least enough experience where he's
- 17:18Speaker 1: usually not as bad as he was last week. I
- 17:20Speaker 1: think he plays a better game this time. I would
- 17:22Speaker 1: lean to taking the points of the Ravens. You don't
- 17:24Speaker 1: even need them to win the game. You just need
- 17:26Speaker 1: them to come within a touchdown. A cucumber sandwich spot. Yeah,
- 17:30Speaker 1: wicked piss. I am wicked piss a kid, all right.
- 17:34Speaker 1: Next up we got Seahawks Jaguar Jaguars. The money's coming
- 17:39Speaker 1: in on the Seahawks and this one sixty per ticket,
- 17:41Speaker 1: seventy two percent of the cash and they're up from
- 17:44Speaker 1: a pick them to a pick them with juice here,
- 17:46Speaker 1: maybe a minus one. Maybe you can find a money
- 17:48Speaker 1: line that's better. Whatever, the best way that you can
- 17:52Speaker 1: find is on this. I would lean to the Seahawks
- 17:54Speaker 1: in this one. I just have a few concerns about it.
- 17:56Speaker 1: But I do think it's a bad spot for Jacksonville.
- 17:58Speaker 1: I mean, obviously I gave out Jacksonville on the show
- 18:01Speaker 1: on Monday night. That was a win for us. They
- 18:04Speaker 1: probably shouldn't have won the game, to be honest. Kansas
- 18:07Speaker 1: City had a fourteen to nothing lead early in the
- 18:09Speaker 1: game and blew the game. And part of it was
- 18:11Speaker 1: I think a defensive touchdown by Jacksonville helping them get
- 18:14Speaker 1: back in the game. Right, Yeah, it was a ninety
- 18:17Speaker 1: nine yard interception return. So Kansas City was about to
- 18:20Speaker 1: retake the lead there and instead it was a pick
- 18:22Speaker 1: six the other way, so that really flipped the game
- 18:25Speaker 1: on its head man, and then Jacksonville still was going
- 18:28Speaker 1: to lose and not cover, which at that point would
- 18:31Speaker 1: have been bullshit because they were winning by three late
- 18:33Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. They gave up that touchdown with
- 18:35Speaker 1: a minute forty five left to the touchdown vulture Kareem Hunt,
- 18:40Speaker 1: who doesn't do anything right now except get touchdown Sometimes
- 18:46Speaker 1: that would have been a horrific way to lose the game,
- 18:48Speaker 1: even though yes, the Jaguars did actually get outgained in
- 18:50Speaker 1: the game by the Chiefs, so they probably didn't really
- 18:54Speaker 1: necessarily deserve to do what they did. They got out
- 18:57Speaker 1: gained four to seventy six to three nineteen, so it
- 18:59Speaker 1: was actually one of the best offensive performances for the
- 19:01Speaker 1: Chiefs of the season, but Jacksonville was able to do it.
- 19:06Speaker 1: We all saw what happened in the game Jacksonville. I
- 19:09Speaker 1: don't even think they had any time outs left, and
- 19:11Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence fell down on the on the play from
- 19:15Speaker 1: the one yard line, didn't get touched, got back up
- 19:18Speaker 1: and ran into the end zone. It was crazy watching
- 19:21Speaker 1: that play happen live. Man, it was wild. It was
- 19:24Speaker 1: like just a rollercoaster of emotions in like three seconds
- 19:28Speaker 1: worth of a play. I think if he did get tackled, though,
- 19:31Speaker 1: I think they would have been able to still spike
- 19:33Speaker 1: and run another play or two. But I mean that
- 19:36Speaker 1: was crazy, dude, that was insane. He gets in for
- 19:39Speaker 1: the game when he touched. That was a huge win
- 19:41Speaker 1: for the Jaguars man over the Chiefs on Monday Night.
- 19:44Speaker 1: That's kind of a legitimizer game. Like I think we
- 19:47Speaker 1: talked about this in college football more often. It's like
- 19:49Speaker 1: when that team gets their first win that the public
- 19:52Speaker 1: actually like sees as a legitimate game, then you kind
- 19:56Speaker 1: of want to go against a legitimate win. I mean,
- 19:58Speaker 1: then you kind of want to go against that team
- 19:59Speaker 1: the next game because that team has now been legitimized
- 20:03Speaker 1: in the public's eyes. Right, Like I think people were
- 20:05Speaker 1: just like, oh, Jacksonville be Houston, whatever, Jacksonville be Carolina,
- 20:09Speaker 1: who cares? But now they beat and who else they beat? Well,
- 20:12Speaker 1: San Francisco. I mean, I don't know, man, people might
- 20:15Speaker 1: still just not be thinking San Francisco is that good
- 20:18Speaker 1: just because it's such an injured team. But you beat
- 20:20Speaker 1: the Chiese on Monday Night. Everybody sees it. I think
- 20:22Speaker 1: that legitimizes you. Man. Now they got this game short
- 20:26Speaker 1: week against Seattle here and they have to go, as
- 20:29Speaker 1: I said, to their home away from home. The Jaguars
- 20:34Speaker 1: have to go to London next week, where I do
- 20:36Speaker 1: think they might have an advantage by the way next
- 20:38Speaker 1: week because it's like the Jaguars always play out there
- 20:41Speaker 1: in London because they're the team out there, but it
- 20:44Speaker 1: might be a look ahead spot even though it is
- 20:45Speaker 1: an out of conference game. So I said the same
- 20:47Speaker 1: thing about the Rams. Still, it's kind of a big thing.
- 20:50Speaker 1: You have to Like it's almost like getaway damn major
- 20:52Speaker 1: League Baseball, where it's like you got to play a game,
- 20:54Speaker 1: but you got to travel out basically. Though of course
- 20:57Speaker 1: in this case you get a couple of days. I mean,
- 20:58Speaker 1: you're not gonna travel in me after finishing your game,
- 21:01Speaker 1: like you're gonna probably have like a day and then
- 21:04Speaker 1: go out there. But whatever the case, it's still a
- 21:07Speaker 1: big deal having to go to London, man, I mean,
- 21:09Speaker 1: the London stuff is just stupid. So I would lean
- 21:12Speaker 1: to Seattle on this one, but I do have my
- 21:13Speaker 1: hesitations with it. Seattle is coming off a barn burner
- 21:16Speaker 1: of a game themselves. They do have to travel down
- 21:18Speaker 1: to the East Coast for one of these dreaded road
- 21:21Speaker 1: out of conference games, which I always talking about. These
- 21:23Speaker 1: are the least meaningful games on a team schedule because
- 21:26Speaker 1: it matters the least in the tiebreakers at the end
- 21:30Speaker 1: of the season. Playing out at Jacksonville not a spot
- 21:33Speaker 1: that Seattle's necessarily used to. Sam Darnold not used to
- 21:36Speaker 1: it either, And they're coming off a tough game themselves, man,
- 21:40Speaker 1: really a couple of tough games in a round. They
- 21:41Speaker 1: had a divisional Thursday night win over Arizona. Then last
- 21:44Speaker 1: week they had that barn burner against Tampa Bay where
- 21:47Speaker 1: they maybe could have won that game, Man and Seattle.
- 21:50Speaker 1: Seattle was pretty banged up on defense. Man, their defense
- 21:53Speaker 1: had some injuries going on there. I think part of
- 21:55Speaker 1: the reason why they lost that game. That was still
- 21:57Speaker 1: a big game, man against Tampa. Tampa has been playing well,
- 22:00Speaker 1: winning games, so that does give me a little bit
- 22:03Speaker 1: of hesitation about this with Seattle. Here Man and Seattle,
- 22:07Speaker 1: they do have a big game up next to they're
- 22:09Speaker 1: playing one of the stupid Monday night games, which is
- 22:12Speaker 1: gonna be another Monday Night doubleheader next week. I hate
- 22:15Speaker 1: those fucking things or dueling games on Monday Night. It's
- 22:19Speaker 1: every fucking week now. Fuck it, dude. It makes the
- 22:21Speaker 1: Monday night game so like so much less special, you
- 22:25Speaker 1: know what I mean? So maybe they maybe they won't
- 22:27Speaker 1: look I head to a Monday night game are because
- 22:29Speaker 1: there's so many fucking Monday night games now. I don't know.
- 22:32Speaker 1: Monday Night used to be a special thing. Man, It's
- 22:34Speaker 1: like this is it. You get the spotlight it's Monday Night.
- 22:36Speaker 1: Now you don't get the spotlight anymore because they are
- 22:38Speaker 1: two fucking Monday night games every week. Fuck the NFL obviously,
- 22:43Speaker 1: but yes, I would lean to Seattle in that game
- 22:46Speaker 1: if I was gonna play it. I do think it's
- 22:47Speaker 1: the letdown spot for the jag Wharas is the determining factor,
- 22:51Speaker 1: and that when anathics are hanging out, what's up the London,
- 22:57Speaker 1: the jungle people, jungle cats, jungle boogieing, Jungle love, Jungle London,
- 23:04Speaker 1: Jungle London is driving me mad? It's meg get me crazy.
- 23:11Speaker 1: I don't think that's the key of that song is
- 23:12Speaker 1: actually in but whatever, what's up next? Fucking I don't know.
- 23:18Speaker 1: Cowboys Panthers, Oh yeah, great, Cowboys have seventy eight percent
- 23:22Speaker 1: of tickets and fifty the cash on the Panthers here.
- 23:25Speaker 1: So it's one of these pros versus Joe's type of
- 23:28Speaker 1: games here where the Joe's are laying the points at
- 23:31Speaker 1: the Cowboys because the Cowboys have looked pretty good over
- 23:33Speaker 1: the last couple of games so and their offense is
- 23:36Speaker 1: pretty solid. So the public, yeah, they're gonna jump on
- 23:39Speaker 1: the Cowboys here. Even though the Panthers did pretty well
- 23:42Speaker 1: offensively last week with Rico Dowdle no doubt, man, he
- 23:47Speaker 1: was one of my running backs in fantasy last week,
- 23:50Speaker 1: did pretty well for me last week, to say the least.
- 23:53Speaker 1: Don't know that he's gonna repeat that again. Probably not,
- 23:55Speaker 1: But the Cowboys defense is pretty terrible. These defenses are
- 23:59Speaker 1: both terrible, but it looks like the money is actually
- 24:03Speaker 1: not really coming in on the over here, Like this
- 24:05Speaker 1: looks like it would be an over matchup with two
- 24:07Speaker 1: bad defenses and two capable offenses. But Bryce Young hasn't
- 24:11Speaker 1: really been that good for the Panthers though. Man, I
- 24:13Speaker 1: mean I thought he was gonna take another step forward.
- 24:15Speaker 1: Maybe that's not gonna be the case. Total did go
- 24:18Speaker 1: out from forty seven out to forty nine, and this
- 24:20Speaker 1: one eighty three percent of tickets on the over, only
- 24:22Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of the cash on the over some
- 24:24Speaker 1: money kind of saying under here, but it is coming
- 24:27Speaker 1: in towards the Panthers. I'll agree with the Panthers side,
- 24:31Speaker 1: but it's not gonna be one that I this one.
- 24:33Speaker 1: I don't really have that strong of an opinion on.
- 24:35Speaker 1: I thought the spot to play against the Cowboys was
- 24:38Speaker 1: last week where they were coming off that ridiculous Sunday
- 24:41Speaker 1: night tie and home against Green Bay, had to go
- 24:43Speaker 1: out to the East Coast to play. The Jets thought
- 24:45Speaker 1: it was a bad spot, and they pretty much destroyed
- 24:48Speaker 1: the Jets. I mean, the Jets made it cosmetic at
- 24:50Speaker 1: the end with some garbage time scores there. It was
- 24:53Speaker 1: pretty bad Dallas. Actually, they only played poorly, poorly defensively
- 24:58Speaker 1: at the end of the game. So crazily, Fields didn't
- 25:02Speaker 1: even do that well against this awful Dallas defense, although
- 25:05Speaker 1: in the end his stats looked okay, but it was
- 25:07Speaker 1: mostly because it was garbage time, and I think Dallas
- 25:09Speaker 1: just kind of packed it in. Dallas. If they're smart,
- 25:13Speaker 1: they're staying on the East coast here because they have
- 25:15Speaker 1: another East Coast game here against Carolina. But they have
- 25:18Speaker 1: a big game up next against Washington against the Redskins,
- 25:21Speaker 1: which is a big divisional game man against Jaydon Daniels.
- 25:24Speaker 1: So I do think it may be a look ahead
- 25:26Speaker 1: spot and maybe it's one of these spots where the
- 25:28Speaker 1: letdown from that Green Bay game, maybe it happens here
- 25:31Speaker 1: in kind of a delayed fashion. Dallas also, I believe
- 25:34Speaker 1: they haven't had a buy yet, right, Yeah, So Dallas
- 25:39Speaker 1: is playing a third road game in four weeks two
- 25:42Speaker 1: and that's not easy to do two road games in
- 25:44Speaker 1: a row, two actually playing four and six weeks too,
- 25:48Speaker 1: So Dallas has been playing a lot of games on
- 25:50Speaker 1: the road, man, So that makes it a little bit
- 25:52Speaker 1: difficult as well. Carolina coming off a win against Miami,
- 25:56Speaker 1: I think really just kind of a confidence boosting win
- 25:58Speaker 1: after they got smacked by New England the week before that.
- 26:01Speaker 1: I told you I liked Carolina last week though, because
- 26:03Speaker 1: Miami was on a short week, Carolina wasn't really as
- 26:06Speaker 1: bad as they looked in that game against New England.
- 26:09Speaker 1: So Carolina, it's a better spot for them, a little
- 26:11Speaker 1: bit of momentum here staying at home, So the Carolina
- 26:15Speaker 1: side does make sense to me. That would be the
- 26:17Speaker 1: way I would lean in that one. It's not one
- 26:18Speaker 1: of my stronger opinions, really, but I lean that way.
- 26:25Speaker 1: What else was I gonna say about this? Oh right?
- 26:27Speaker 1: I forgot to mention, by the way, Minnesota and Houston
- 26:29Speaker 1: on Houston are on buys this week, so somebody to
- 26:32Speaker 1: keep in mind here, and the team's coming out of
- 26:34Speaker 1: bys from last week or Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay and Pittsburgh.
- 26:38Speaker 1: So we have not talked about any of those teams yet,
- 26:41Speaker 1: but we will obviously. So yeah, only two buys this week,
- 26:44Speaker 1: Minnesota and Houston, they're the only buys. Everybody else is gay.
- 26:51Speaker 1: What else do we have going on here? We're still
- 26:53Speaker 1: in the one PM slates here slates I should say
- 26:56Speaker 1: Chijers at the Dolphins. Chargers having to go to Miami
- 27:00Speaker 1: here sixty nine per ticket's only fifty one percent of
- 27:02Speaker 1: the cash on the Chodgers. They're down from five and
- 27:04Speaker 1: a half to four here on the line, so the
- 27:07Speaker 1: money is saying Dolphins in this one. The Chargers are
- 27:10Speaker 1: a public team, even though they've lost two games in
- 27:12Speaker 1: a row. I think after what people saw Jackson, Dart
- 27:16Speaker 1: and company just do scataboo, scattered, do what they scattered,
- 27:22Speaker 1: do what they just did on a Thursday. I think
- 27:24Speaker 1: people are gonna maybe not dock the Chargers as much
- 27:27Speaker 1: for that loss of the Giants. They're not gonna dock
- 27:29Speaker 1: them really for losing to the Redskins last week. With
- 27:32Speaker 1: Jaydon Daniels back, I don't think so the public is
- 27:34Speaker 1: still on the Chargers, or maybe more accurately, they don't
- 27:38Speaker 1: want anything to do with Miami here. But I don't
- 27:41Speaker 1: love the spot for the Chargers here. I know you
- 27:43Speaker 1: think maybe they should bounce back here, but they're playing
- 27:45Speaker 1: a second road game in three weeks, having to go
- 27:47Speaker 1: back to the East coast, so they've gone East coast
- 27:49Speaker 1: to West Coast, back to East coast. I mean, that's
- 27:51Speaker 1: brutal to cross country trips. That's not good. And they
- 27:55Speaker 1: do have this you know, upstart indie team next week
- 27:58Speaker 1: who's sitting at four and one whatever right now, which
- 28:00Speaker 1: is pretty good, so they might look past this Miami
- 28:03Speaker 1: team and only has one win here. Man, this Miami team,
- 28:06Speaker 1: it just looks bad. So I don't like the spot
- 28:09Speaker 1: for the Chargers going back east here, I would lean
- 28:12Speaker 1: to Miami. Miami is staying on the East coast. They
- 28:14Speaker 1: could be in a bounce back spot maybe after an
- 28:17Speaker 1: uglier loss to Carolina there the Chargers, by the way,
- 28:20Speaker 1: they were winning that game early against the Redskins. I
- 28:23Speaker 1: think they're winning ten nothing, and then they just never
- 28:26Speaker 1: scored again. I think they turned it over a couple
- 28:28Speaker 1: of times, maybe two. I can look real quick to
- 28:30Speaker 1: see what because sometimes I got you gotta look at
- 28:32Speaker 1: like what the like what did the box score look
- 28:34Speaker 1: like in that game? Right, just to kind of make
- 28:37Speaker 1: sure like there wasn't something really crazy that happened here.
- 28:40Speaker 1: But no, they lost the turnover about two to one,
- 28:42Speaker 1: So yeah, I seem to remember seeing some of the
- 28:44Speaker 1: highlights of that with those turnovers. They did get out
- 28:46Speaker 1: gained by Washington as well, though, But yeah, I'm gonna
- 28:50Speaker 1: lean to Miami in that one. Man. Not much else
- 28:53Speaker 1: I have to say about that, but uh yeah, I
- 28:55Speaker 1: think it's seems like the right side in that one.
- 28:59Speaker 1: Into the four four pms slate here, we're actually gonna
- 29:01Speaker 1: go out of order. Actually interesting. I'm going in order
- 29:05Speaker 1: of the board here, man, like the rotation order. But
- 29:08Speaker 1: these games have been like flexed around, So we got
- 29:10Speaker 1: like a four to twenty five PM game up next,
- 29:13Speaker 1: which is forty nine Ers Buccaneers. Decent matchup between two
- 29:17Speaker 1: teams that I think are what they're both four and one.
- 29:20Speaker 1: I mean that's crazy. I mean, you wouldn't really think
- 29:22Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers are because they've been so desimated
- 29:25Speaker 1: with injuries. The Bucks are only a three point favorite
- 29:27Speaker 1: here too. Some of the oddsmakers kind of disrespecting the
- 29:31Speaker 1: Buccaneers to some extent because they're really mostly only getting
- 29:34Speaker 1: home field here and a little bit more than that,
- 29:37Speaker 1: kind of respecting the Niners as well though, despite all
- 29:39Speaker 1: the injuries they have. Fifty seven percent of tickets are
- 29:42Speaker 1: on the Bucks, but fifty six percent of the cash
- 29:44Speaker 1: on the Niners, and I don't really disagree with it.
- 29:47Speaker 1: I do kind of like the Niners here. I have
- 29:50Speaker 1: some issues with it though. I mean, yes, the Niners
- 29:52Speaker 1: have extra preparation time here, but because they played on
- 29:55Speaker 1: Thursday night, but they're coming off that big win over
- 29:57Speaker 1: the Rams. Man that was a big win for San
- 29:59Speaker 1: Francisco to send the Rams down to a game behind them,
- 30:02Speaker 1: take the tiebreaker from them right now, Niners sitting atop
- 30:05Speaker 1: this division big win. And now it's a second straight
- 30:08Speaker 1: road game. They got to go to the East Coast
- 30:10Speaker 1: for the first time. The Furthest. East they've gone the
- 30:12Speaker 1: first time this year, I should say the Furthest. East
- 30:15Speaker 1: they've gone is New Orleans. Of course, this is not
- 30:17Speaker 1: an early game, so it should be in their wheelhouse. Still,
- 30:20Speaker 1: it's gonna be basically one pm the aretime, so not
- 30:23Speaker 1: really gonna be a huge deal, I don't think. But
- 30:25Speaker 1: still second straight road game a little bit difficult. Both
- 30:29Speaker 1: teams are gonna be focused. I don't think there's any
- 30:31Speaker 1: way these teams are gonna overlook each other. But Tampa
- 30:34Speaker 1: Bay of course won in that ridiculous barn burner against Seattle.
- 30:37Speaker 1: This is just something's got to give with this Tampa
- 30:40Speaker 1: Bay team. Man. As I talked about, they were losing
- 30:43Speaker 1: each of their first three games. They were losing in
- 30:45Speaker 1: the final like minute or two of the game, and
- 30:48Speaker 1: they won all three of them. They made a comeback
- 30:50Speaker 1: against Philly and fell short, and then they wound up
- 30:53Speaker 1: winning another close game against Seattle last week. And in
- 30:55Speaker 1: this game they were losing. Let me see, in this game, yeah,
- 31:01Speaker 1: they were losing with yeah, in the final two minutes
- 31:03Speaker 1: of the game. They were losing the game again. They
- 31:05Speaker 1: scored to tie the game with one o eight left,
- 31:07Speaker 1: and then they won the field goal literally the last
- 31:09Speaker 1: play of the game. So the Buccaneers in all four
- 31:12Speaker 1: of their wins, they were losing the game in the
- 31:15Speaker 1: final two minutes. I don't think I've ever seen anything
- 31:18Speaker 1: like that before. I think they were the first team
- 31:20Speaker 1: to ever do that in the first three weeks. So
- 31:22Speaker 1: this Tampa Bay team, I do think they're not as
- 31:24Speaker 1: good as the record indicates right now. Man, I'm sorry.
- 31:27Speaker 1: I know they got injuries. Mike Evans is still hurt.
- 31:29Speaker 1: I think they got some injuries on defense, and I
- 31:32Speaker 1: think that's where Sarah Cisco can actually take advantage here,
- 31:34Speaker 1: Sar Francisco, I know they don't have Rock Purty, but
- 31:37Speaker 1: I'm not a huge Prety fan. And I was talking
- 31:39Speaker 1: about how Mac Jones is so much like it's so
- 31:42Speaker 1: bad that he's actually even worse than Party. But Jones
- 31:45Speaker 1: has actually been the better of the two. Jones is
- 31:47Speaker 1: going to start this game here again. He's actually been good.
- 31:51Speaker 1: So I don't know, man, he's not making mistakes right now.
- 31:54Speaker 1: Maybe I'll have to eat my words here. It's not
- 31:56Speaker 1: going to be a play for me. But Jones has
- 31:58Speaker 1: actually been playing pretty well, so he's gonna keep at it.
- 32:01Speaker 1: And the forty nine ers, actually, their passing attack has
- 32:04Speaker 1: actually been better than the rushing attack, which makes no
- 32:07Speaker 1: sense because they have Christian McCaffrey, but it's like these
- 32:09Speaker 1: guys just can't get healthy. McCaffrey not seemingly one hundred percent.
- 32:14Speaker 1: They got a couple of wide receivers I think still
- 32:16Speaker 1: out of here, Piersol and Jennings. You gotta keep an
- 32:20Speaker 1: eye on that situation and make sure that you know
- 32:22Speaker 1: what the situation is for those wide receivers there. So
- 32:26Speaker 1: both these teams are dealing with some injuries for sure,
- 32:28Speaker 1: but San Francisco has more injuries. Man. But what I
- 32:31Speaker 1: was gonna say is because the passing attack is actually there,
- 32:35Speaker 1: that's like the better phase of their offense, believe it
- 32:37Speaker 1: or not. That actually matches up against Tampa Bay's weakness,
- 32:40Speaker 1: which is the secondary. Tampa's better at stopping the run.
- 32:43Speaker 1: So I think San Francisco can actually move the ball
- 32:46Speaker 1: through the air against this Tampa team, as crazy as
- 32:48Speaker 1: that might sound. Yeah, and San Francisco, I know they
- 32:52Speaker 1: have defensive injuries as well. I think Bosa is still out,
- 32:55Speaker 1: but their defense has been pretty solid, so I kind
- 32:57Speaker 1: of expect that to still be the case. We're looking
- 32:59Speaker 1: at it again at Tampa Bay eight team. It's dealing
- 33:01Speaker 1: with some injuries too. I think Godwin is out again too,
- 33:03Speaker 1: So I know egg Buka or however Gronk pronounced his
- 33:07Speaker 1: name of Bookie Boo. I know he's he's uh me
- 33:11Speaker 1: ga Igbuka. However he pronounce his name the egg Man.
- 33:14Speaker 1: He is the egg Man. They are the yagg Man
- 33:19Speaker 1: book Bookie Boo. All right, yeah, he's uh, he's gonna,
- 33:22Speaker 1: he's gonna. He's good for sure. But still, I mean
- 33:25Speaker 1: this Tampa Bay team is a bit thin on their
- 33:28Speaker 1: offensive roster, and I think Bucky Irving is hurt too,
- 33:30Speaker 1: so they're gonna be using Rashad White as they running back.
- 33:33Speaker 1: So Tampa, they do have some injuries man on that offense.
- 33:35Speaker 1: I know running backs are more plug and play, but
- 33:37Speaker 1: still I'll lean to San Francisco in this one. Both
- 33:40Speaker 1: teams are actually flying uh Pacific Coast back to the
- 33:44Speaker 1: East here because of course Tampa was in that barn burner,
- 33:47Speaker 1: like I said, against Seattle, so coming off that game,
- 33:50Speaker 1: crazy game, man, crazy couple of games. Man, At some point,
- 33:52Speaker 1: I think Tampa they're gonna have it like a down
- 33:56Speaker 1: spot at some point, man, And maybe it's here. I mean,
- 33:58Speaker 1: it was kind of the Filly game to some extent,
- 34:00Speaker 1: but they still came back in that game and made
- 34:03Speaker 1: it close. It could be this game though, against the
- 34:05Speaker 1: San Francisco team with all the injuries they have. And
- 34:07Speaker 1: they do have Detroit next, which is kind of always
- 34:10Speaker 1: a big deal because it seems like Tampa, like it
- 34:13Speaker 1: seems like they faced Detroit all the time. I mean,
- 34:15Speaker 1: they lost at Detroit in the playoffs a couple years ago.
- 34:17Speaker 1: I think they got revenge against Detroit during one of
- 34:20Speaker 1: the regular season games. So that's a big matchup, man.
- 34:22Speaker 1: And it's a primetime game too. I think that's a
- 34:26Speaker 1: that's a Monday night game as well. I think I
- 34:28Speaker 1: can't even tell them now because yeah, it's on ten
- 34:30Speaker 1: to twenty, so it's a Monday night game. It's ridiculous, man.
- 34:33Speaker 1: But yeah, Tampa, maybe they'll even look ahead to that.
- 34:35Speaker 1: So yeah, there are reasons to I think lean to
- 34:37Speaker 1: the forty nine ers in that one, which is what
- 34:39Speaker 1: the money is saying as well. Titans and Raiders I
- 34:43Speaker 1: actually disagree with the money in this one. The Raiders
- 34:45Speaker 1: are down from six to four here, seventy three percent
- 34:48Speaker 1: of tickets on them. How could the Raiders possibly be public? Man? Really?
- 34:53Speaker 1: And then sixty two percent of the cash on the
- 34:55Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans. I'm not buying it. I really am not.
- 34:59Speaker 1: I mean, I guess the only reason that I could
- 35:01Speaker 1: see for the Raiders being public here is that the
- 35:02Speaker 1: public still wants nothing to do with the Titans. That
- 35:05Speaker 1: would be the only reason that I see that being
- 35:07Speaker 1: the case. But I still think the Titans are the
- 35:09Speaker 1: worst team. I mean, the osmakers are telling you that.
- 35:12Speaker 1: I think the Titans still are probably the worst team
- 35:14Speaker 1: in the NFL, even though their defense has been fairly good.
- 35:17Speaker 1: But they pulled off that win last week, man, And
- 35:20Speaker 1: I told you that win was pretty counterfeit, which we
- 35:23Speaker 1: just looked at that win against Arizona. Arizona was gonna
- 35:26Speaker 1: go up twenty eight to six in the game until
- 35:28Speaker 1: Demrik Otto fumbled the ball into the end zone with
- 35:31Speaker 1: a stupid touchback rule, which needs to change, by the way.
- 35:34Speaker 1: So that was bullshit Arizona. Although I'm not unhappy about
- 35:39Speaker 1: it necessarily because it knocked people out of survivor while
- 35:42Speaker 1: I stayed alive with Indy. But Tennessee, I mean, maybe
- 35:47Speaker 1: that'll give us some confidence because I know they have
- 35:49Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback, and sometimes when you get that first
- 35:52Speaker 1: win out of the way kind of give you confidence.
- 35:54Speaker 1: But war it isn't doing this right. Like I just
- 35:56Speaker 1: showed you, there was a huge pick six for Tennessee.
- 35:59Speaker 1: They the benefit of that other the fumble into the
- 36:02Speaker 1: end zone as well, and then there was that ridiculous
- 36:05Speaker 1: the offensive touchdown the Tampa Bay score of that Tennessee
- 36:08Speaker 1: excusually scored. You didn't see it. Arizona intercepted cam Ward
- 36:13Speaker 1: on the play. They whoever intercepted it, tried to run
- 36:16Speaker 1: the football, fumbled it, and Tennessee recovered the fumble and
- 36:21Speaker 1: I believe returned it for a touchdown. I'm pretty sure
- 36:24Speaker 1: is what happened. Just absolutely ridiculous. Man, So last Sea
- 36:29Speaker 1: monst saw buffering all that sucks. Is it hopefully it's
- 36:32Speaker 1: on not a Is it not a my end? I
- 36:34Speaker 1: hope it's not a my end. Let me check real quick.
- 36:36Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out with Charles. Let me let me
- 36:38Speaker 1: check on my end real quick. Here I guess, but yeah,
- 36:41Speaker 1: so I mean basically all of the scores for Tennessee
- 36:45Speaker 1: in that game or counterfeit for the most part. They
- 36:47Speaker 1: had a ninety nine yard pick six plus that uh
- 36:50Speaker 1: crazy uh interception plus fumble touchdown whatever the fuck you
- 36:55Speaker 1: want to call it, which I believe was was the
- 36:57Speaker 1: other one in the game. So whatever it was, man,
- 37:00Speaker 1: I think it's just yeah, I mean, counterfeit win for Tennessee, man,
- 37:04Speaker 1: so I'm not buying it. And they are playing a
- 37:05Speaker 1: third straight road game here, so yeah, I mean, it
- 37:09Speaker 1: looks to me, it looks like the stream is doing
- 37:11Speaker 1: okay for me, so I think it might be on
- 37:12Speaker 1: your own Charles. That does suck though, unfortunately. But this
- 37:15Speaker 1: is also a third straight road game for Tennessee, man,
- 37:18Speaker 1: so they're kind of going all over the place. Although
- 37:20Speaker 1: I know if they stayed out in the Arizona area,
- 37:22Speaker 1: it's not that much travel to go up to Las Vegas,
- 37:24Speaker 1: but still kind of brutal to play three road games
- 37:27Speaker 1: in a row. You don't usually have to do that
- 37:29Speaker 1: in the NFL. Man. I don't believe they didn't have
- 37:32Speaker 1: a buy in the middle of that either, So pretty difficult,
- 37:35Speaker 1: man for Tennessee. Here the Raiders, they just looked so
- 37:39Speaker 1: bad last week that I'm actually it's still surprised me
- 37:42Speaker 1: the public would want to be on the Raiders after
- 37:44Speaker 1: they lost forty to six to Indianapolis. Just crazy, man.
- 37:48Speaker 1: But I think the fact the Raiders are coming back
- 37:50Speaker 1: home gonna be wanting to win. I mean, I know
- 37:52Speaker 1: they have Kansas City up next, but I don't think
- 37:54Speaker 1: they could really overlook anybody being a one in four
- 37:57Speaker 1: year And at some point, I think the turnovers also
- 37:59Speaker 1: have to stop. I mean, Gino Smith, he's throwing nine interceptions,
- 38:03Speaker 1: and yet interceptions are something that are not totally random.
- 38:07Speaker 1: I mean a quarterback throwing a lot of interceptions, it
- 38:09Speaker 1: is kind of a thing. But still, I think there's
- 38:12Speaker 1: gotta be some regression back to some sort of mean
- 38:14Speaker 1: here man. But the Raiders I think have the one
- 38:16Speaker 1: of the teams with the most turnovers in football right now.
- 38:20Speaker 1: I mean, at some point that's got to regress a
- 38:22Speaker 1: little bit at some point, back to a mean, they
- 38:24Speaker 1: were remindus two in this game against indian and they
- 38:26Speaker 1: only got out gained by twenty one yards in this
- 38:28Speaker 1: game by India, So that does not look like a
- 38:30Speaker 1: forty to six loss on the stat sheet. There at all,
- 38:33Speaker 1: So the Raiders were not as bad as they looked
- 38:35Speaker 1: on the final score there. So I'm going to lean
- 38:38Speaker 1: to the Raiders in that one, excuse me in that one,
- 38:41Speaker 1: and disagree with the market read in that one. A
- 38:45Speaker 1: Patriot Saints is gonna be one of my plays. So,
- 38:47Speaker 1: even though it is a one PM game that kind
- 38:49Speaker 1: of got rotated down in the rotation for whatever reason,
- 38:52Speaker 1: I think it probably was going to be a four
- 38:54Speaker 1: PM game and then they flexed it for whatever reason.
- 38:57Speaker 1: I don't know how the flexes work anymore, and I
- 38:59Speaker 1: thought the flex just was for the Sunday night matchups
- 39:02Speaker 1: so you can get a better primetime matchup. But I
- 39:03Speaker 1: don't know. Bengals Packers, I mean, this is maybe one
- 39:08Speaker 1: of the least interesting games. Probably is Packers up from
- 39:12Speaker 1: thirteen and after fourteen. The Packers are coming out of
- 39:14Speaker 1: a bye. Remember a seventy taking seventy eight percent of
- 39:17Speaker 1: the cash on the Packers. The money's coming under the Packers.
- 39:20Speaker 1: They're a huge favorite here against this Bengals team that
- 39:23Speaker 1: has looked really bad. But maybe the Bengals are about
- 39:26Speaker 1: to get the spark that they need here man the
- 39:29Speaker 1: spock because they've been playing with Browning, Jake Browning for
- 39:33Speaker 1: a few weeks. It's been awful. They've been losing all
- 39:37Speaker 1: these games in blow out fashion. So now what do
- 39:39Speaker 1: they do. They go out and they get Joe Flacco,
- 39:42Speaker 1: Who's gonna literally play in every team in this division
- 39:45Speaker 1: by the time his career is over, man, and play
- 39:48Speaker 1: on two different teams in the division this season alone.
- 39:52Speaker 1: Of course, he played on Baltimore back in the day,
- 39:54Speaker 1: he was on Cleveland more recently, including this year, and
- 39:57Speaker 1: now he's on Cincinnati. Man, is he the answer? I
- 40:00Speaker 1: don't know. I could see that going both ways, really, man.
- 40:03Speaker 1: I know Flacco is a veteran, he's used to this,
- 40:05Speaker 1: but I don't know. I don't know how well it's
- 40:08Speaker 1: gonna go because he's got to come in and learn
- 40:10Speaker 1: a new system on the fly, so that takes a
- 40:12Speaker 1: little while. You can't just jump in. They basically picked
- 40:15Speaker 1: him up off the streets, so he can't just learn
- 40:17Speaker 1: the system immediately. So there's gonna be maybe some chemistry
- 40:20Speaker 1: issues there and some growing pains there with him there.
- 40:22Speaker 1: Even though yes, I know he's a veteran, so maybe
- 40:25Speaker 1: sometimes he is kind of used to doing this, like
- 40:27Speaker 1: he seemed to just jump in and know and like
- 40:30Speaker 1: understand Cleveland's offense right away, so maybe he will be okay.
- 40:33Speaker 1: But again, like I said, it could be a spark
- 40:35Speaker 1: for Cincinnati because they've been playing poorly, so they gotta
- 40:38Speaker 1: switch something up and maybe this will be it. One
- 40:42Speaker 1: drawback of this is it is a third road game
- 40:44Speaker 1: in four weeks, which is bad. But also they have
- 40:46Speaker 1: to turn around and play Pittsburgh on Thursday night, so
- 40:50Speaker 1: that's a big game too. Pittsburgh leaning the division right now.
- 40:52Speaker 1: This is a road out of conference game, so I'm
- 40:54Speaker 1: not sure it's gonna be exactly the greatest spot for
- 40:57Speaker 1: Cincinnati here Green Bay. Like I said, they come out
- 41:00Speaker 1: of a buye. But how are they gonna respond. Did
- 41:02Speaker 1: they go into the buy on a good note or not?
- 41:04Speaker 1: I don't know, because they had a tie with Dallas
- 41:07Speaker 1: going into the buy so it's difficult to say whether
- 41:11Speaker 1: that is a good thing or a bad thing as
- 41:14Speaker 1: far as the buye, Like, that was a crazy game,
- 41:16Speaker 1: so they might still be a little bit hungover from
- 41:18Speaker 1: that game. So I don't know, man. I mean, it's
- 41:21Speaker 1: difficult to gauge this game to me, to be honest,
- 41:23Speaker 1: I mean, I guess you could maybe argue that the
- 41:26Speaker 1: Packers are gonna use that by to fix some things
- 41:28Speaker 1: because they were a favorite in that game against Dallas
- 41:30Speaker 1: and they didn't exactly play their best game, especially on
- 41:34Speaker 1: deepense with all the growing bands here. Yeah, maybe I
- 41:37Speaker 1: would actually lay the points of the Packers. I mean,
- 41:39Speaker 1: I'm rarely like, I mean, just because I have to
- 41:43Speaker 1: make a pick on every game, basically I would. I'm
- 41:45Speaker 1: saying that, but I you know, I very rarely am
- 41:48Speaker 1: gonna say that, like you should lay a double digit
- 41:50Speaker 1: favor in the NFL, But in this case, it looks
- 41:52Speaker 1: like the money's coming in that way. Maybe it does
- 41:54Speaker 1: make sense in this game. Not a strong opinion at
- 41:57Speaker 1: all though. And then Sunday Night is Lions Chiefs. This
- 42:01Speaker 1: is gonna be an interesting when the Lions are one
- 42:03Speaker 1: of those dreaded public road underdogs here man, so the
- 42:08Speaker 1: public doesn't want the Chiefs, but the Chiefs normally a
- 42:11Speaker 1: republic team. But the public loves offense, so they love
- 42:13Speaker 1: the Lions. They love what the Lions have done so far,
- 42:15Speaker 1: seventy ticket sixty three percent of cash on the Lions.
- 42:18Speaker 1: Those Lions are public with less of the cash. And
- 42:21Speaker 1: then the Chiefs have gone up from one and a half
- 42:22Speaker 1: one point favorite to a two and a half point favorite.
- 42:27Speaker 1: I don't really disagree with it, man, I think I
- 42:28Speaker 1: probably do lean to the Chiefs in this one. It's
- 42:31Speaker 1: one of those road out of conference games for the Lions.
- 42:33Speaker 1: I know it's a big game. Neither team's gonna overlook
- 42:36Speaker 1: the other, but a little bit of a tricky spot
- 42:39Speaker 1: for Detroit. And I do think Detroit wasn't it like
- 42:42Speaker 1: in the opening week on one of those Thursday night
- 42:44Speaker 1: games like two years ago. Maybe Detroit actually went into
- 42:47Speaker 1: Kansas City and beat them. I think if I'm not mistaken,
- 42:50Speaker 1: so maybe Kansas City will kind of remember that and
- 42:53Speaker 1: maybe be a little bit out for a little bit
- 42:55Speaker 1: of revenge here. Detroit's played a lot of road games too. Man,
- 42:58Speaker 1: this is gonna be a second straight road I'm a
- 43:00Speaker 1: third road game in four weeks, fourth and six weeks.
- 43:03Speaker 1: That's pretty difficult as well. And Detroit they really only
- 43:07Speaker 1: have one impressive win, man, against Baltimore. I know they
- 43:10Speaker 1: put up a lot of points, which is impressive, but
- 43:12Speaker 1: they beat the Bears, the Browns, Cincinnati, those are not
- 43:15Speaker 1: good teams. They beat Baltimore with Lamar Jackson on Monday
- 43:18Speaker 1: night on the road. That's an impressive win. But other
- 43:19Speaker 1: than that, maybe Detroit's a little bit overrated right now.
- 43:25Speaker 1: And they are gonna play a Monday night game next week.
- 43:27Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna look ahead, obviously, because this
- 43:29Speaker 1: is a Sunday night game at Arrowhead, so they're gonna
- 43:31Speaker 1: show up for this. But I think Kansas City also
- 43:33Speaker 1: needs the game a bit more because Detroit's a one
- 43:36Speaker 1: loss team here, but Kansas City's two and three, and
- 43:38Speaker 1: if they want to contend, they got to do something here, man.
- 43:41Speaker 1: And they're coming off a game where they probably should
- 43:42Speaker 1: have won the game. Like I said, they outgained Jacksonville
- 43:45Speaker 1: wound up losing the game, and everybody saw that on primetime.
- 43:48Speaker 1: So the public might be a little bit off of
- 43:50Speaker 1: Kansas City for that reason too, and because they have
- 43:52Speaker 1: three losses. But Kansas City also beat Baltimore, though of
- 43:55Speaker 1: course Lamar Jackson got injured in the game. But Kansas
- 43:58Speaker 1: City's kind of faced some more a cult schedule, man.
- 44:01Speaker 1: I mean, they face the Chargers in Brazil, then they
- 44:04Speaker 1: face Philadelphia Super Bowl rematch. Jacksonville looks fairly good this year, too,
- 44:09Speaker 1: so Kansas City's faces a more difficult schedule so far.
- 44:12Speaker 1: They're more battle tests, and I know they're on a
- 44:13Speaker 1: shorter week here, but I don't think that that matters
- 44:16Speaker 1: as much either of the home teams. That helps them
- 44:18Speaker 1: out a little bit here. They get a little bit
- 44:21Speaker 1: of extra time anyway, because it's a night game at
- 44:23Speaker 1: the very least still, and they just looked probably worse
- 44:27Speaker 1: than they were in that Monday night game, So I
- 44:29Speaker 1: do think the Chiefs make sense in that game as
- 44:31Speaker 1: a lean. And then we do a Monday night Buffalo
- 44:35Speaker 1: at Atlanta in the first of the two. These two
- 44:38Speaker 1: Monday night games still not really a doubleheader. We've got
- 44:40Speaker 1: ESPN and ABC broadcasting these games, these two games respectively,
- 44:45Speaker 1: one at seven point fifteen pm Eastern and the other
- 44:47Speaker 1: at eight fifteen pm Eastern. Buffalo coming off their first
- 44:51Speaker 1: loss of the season, and I talk about this when
- 44:53Speaker 1: a team takes their first loss of the season kind
- 44:55Speaker 1: of deep into the season, sometimes it does hang them
- 44:57Speaker 1: over a little bit. And Buffalo's only played one road
- 45:00Speaker 1: game so far and they have not yet left the
- 45:03Speaker 1: state of New York. How ridiculous is that that we're
- 45:06Speaker 1: in Week six and they've not played a game outside
- 45:09Speaker 1: of New York. Yet their only road game was against
- 45:11Speaker 1: the Jets, so it's kind of ridiculous they're going down
- 45:15Speaker 1: to Atlanta and it's another one of those dreaded out
- 45:18Speaker 1: of conference road games here man. So I think it's
- 45:22Speaker 1: a bad spot for Buffalo here man. They took that
- 45:25Speaker 1: first loss of you know, of the season. Sometimes that
- 45:28Speaker 1: can hang you over. And it was a big primetime
- 45:30Speaker 1: game and that's kind of the new AFC East battle
- 45:33Speaker 1: that people are talking about Buffalo against New England, although
- 45:37Speaker 1: I still don't think New England is really like a
- 45:39Speaker 1: legit threat to overtake the division right now for Buffalo.
- 45:43Speaker 1: But still it was kind of a big game. But
- 45:45Speaker 1: then again you could argue that, well, Buffalo is a
- 45:47Speaker 1: home favorite of eight points here, so when you lose
- 45:50Speaker 1: a game like that, it is a little bit embarrassing,
- 45:52Speaker 1: and you do refocus with the week, you know, you
- 45:55Speaker 1: do refocus during the week potentially, so there is that
- 45:58Speaker 1: argument as well. But again, it is a road out
- 46:01Speaker 1: of conference game. They don't have anything more important up
- 46:02Speaker 1: next though, against They're facing Carolina next. It's a Monday
- 46:06Speaker 1: night game, so we'll still probably show up for it.
- 46:08Speaker 1: But it's still really odd to me that Buffalo has
- 46:11Speaker 1: only played one road game so far, so they've had
- 46:14Speaker 1: the benefit of being at home this whole time. They're
- 46:17Speaker 1: one really good win was also against Baltimore, and they
- 46:20Speaker 1: probably should have lost the game Baltimore is beating them.
- 46:22Speaker 1: Forward to twenty five and Baltimore's with four minutes left.
- 46:25Speaker 1: As I keep pointing out of Baltimore's not looking great
- 46:28Speaker 1: right now at So after that Buffalo the wins are
- 46:30Speaker 1: against the Jets, Miami, and New Orleans. I mean those
- 46:33Speaker 1: are all one in zero win teams right now, so
- 46:36Speaker 1: that doesn't look very good. And then they lost to
- 46:38Speaker 1: New England of course, so is Buffalo a little bit overrated? Possibly?
- 46:43Speaker 1: And Atlanta is coming out of a bye by the way.
- 46:45Speaker 1: By the way, although they went into the buy on
- 46:47Speaker 1: a good note, So I talk about that when a
- 46:49Speaker 1: team goes into the buy and a good note, sometimes
- 46:51Speaker 1: they don't they're not able to use that buye to
- 46:54Speaker 1: its full advantage because it's like, well, if things are working,
- 46:57Speaker 1: what do you have to fix? So it was only
- 46:58Speaker 1: one win against washing and things were really bad the
- 47:01Speaker 1: game before that against Carolina, and I've kind of been
- 47:05Speaker 1: right for the most part with Atlanta. I mean, I
- 47:07Speaker 1: think they should have won the game against Tampa Bay,
- 47:09Speaker 1: so I think my lean was kind of an unlucky
- 47:12Speaker 1: loss in that one. And then my lean was correct
- 47:14Speaker 1: with Atlanta against Minnesota or they won. I gave out
- 47:16Speaker 1: a play against them in the Carolina game, got that right,
- 47:19Speaker 1: and then I gave out a play on Atlanta in
- 47:22Speaker 1: their last game against Washington and got that right too.
- 47:24Speaker 1: So I've been getting these Atlanta games right. Pennick seems
- 47:27Speaker 1: to be moving along. He's pretty good. He does play
- 47:29Speaker 1: better at home, seemingly right now too, so this game
- 47:32Speaker 1: is at home. He's played a couple of these primetime
- 47:36Speaker 1: games now, I think so, like he won on the
- 47:38Speaker 1: road in primetime against Minnesota earlier this year, so that's good.
- 47:41Speaker 1: I believe he played one primetime game last year against
- 47:44Speaker 1: Washington and played well, but they lost in overtime and
- 47:47Speaker 1: they probably got bullshitted out of a cover there as
- 47:50Speaker 1: an underdog, which is one to think one of my
- 47:52Speaker 1: plays that week that I lost on the show. Yeah,
- 47:56Speaker 1: but Atlanta coming out of the buy, I know they
- 47:57Speaker 1: went into the buy in a good note against Washington,
- 47:59Speaker 1: but I do think they're gonna use that buy to
- 48:00Speaker 1: prep something for this one, so prep you gotta watch
- 48:04Speaker 1: out man Buffalo coming in. It could be some a
- 48:07Speaker 1: little bit of gay coming in. Actually maybe not, because
- 48:11Speaker 1: Buffalo is kind of more of a blue collar city
- 48:14Speaker 1: more probably more so than Atlanta is. But I lead
- 48:17Speaker 1: to Atlanta on this one. Buffalo is public eighty percent
- 48:20Speaker 1: of tickets, only seventy percent of the cash on them.
- 48:22Speaker 1: They're down from five to four here, So the money
- 48:24Speaker 1: is agreeing with that and taking Buffalo. Excuseay taking Atlanta
- 48:29Speaker 1: in this one. Excuse me against Buffalo. I agree with
- 48:32Speaker 1: it for all the reasons I just said I would
- 48:33Speaker 1: take the points with the Falcons and this one if
- 48:36Speaker 1: I was gonna play, And it almost still looks too
- 48:37Speaker 1: easy to play the Bills here and lay the points
- 48:40Speaker 1: with them, because they're the Bills, they're Josh Allen. They
- 48:42Speaker 1: only have one loss still, so total, by the way,
- 48:46Speaker 1: I was gonna mention the Lions Chiefs total went all
- 48:48Speaker 1: the way up from forty nine to fifty three, which
- 48:50Speaker 1: is a crazy high total. But the money's coming in
- 48:52Speaker 1: on the over there eighty percent of tickets, ninety four
- 48:54Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over there. Although I
- 48:56Speaker 1: think in Lion's chefs, if you like the Chiefs. Chiefs
- 48:59Speaker 1: are brought correlated to an under in that game because
- 49:01Speaker 1: the Chiefs are more of the defensive team and the
- 49:03Speaker 1: lines are were the offensive team. So I don't know, man,
- 49:06Speaker 1: it's a crazy high total there though. On the money,
- 49:08Speaker 1: I just thought it was interesting the money is coming
- 49:10Speaker 1: in on the total. But if you like the over,
- 49:12Speaker 1: I mean you missed the best numbers, I think you
- 49:13Speaker 1: would have to play the over, you know, probably at
- 49:17Speaker 1: most at fifty one, which is a key number there.
- 49:20Speaker 1: I would probably not want to go want to go
- 49:22Speaker 1: over the fifty three. And the public is of course
- 49:24Speaker 1: going to play the over there too because it's it's
- 49:26Speaker 1: golf against Mahomes. Although I probably wouldn't want to really
- 49:28Speaker 1: be sitting on an under ticket in that game. Either.
- 49:31Speaker 1: So yeah, just extra thoughts there. And then the total
- 49:34Speaker 1: in this Bill's Falcons game is fairly high as well,
- 49:36Speaker 1: at fifty the prime time, you know, because it's prime time.
- 49:39Speaker 1: They put all these offenses that could score in primetime
- 49:42Speaker 1: except for maybe this other Monday night game. But still
- 49:47Speaker 1: Falcons Bill's fifty a little bit of juice on the
- 49:49Speaker 1: under now, though seventy nine percent of tickets on the
- 49:51Speaker 1: over only fifty five percent of the cash on the over.
- 49:55Speaker 1: Tough to gauge the total in that one man, because
- 49:57Speaker 1: I'm not sure that either defense is necessarily great. I
- 50:01Speaker 1: think the Bills trying to improve their defense with their
- 50:03Speaker 1: defense still might not be that great. I think the
- 50:04Speaker 1: Falcons do have the better defense though. So the other
- 50:07Speaker 1: thing about this game, I think the Falcons better defense
- 50:10Speaker 1: getting points it's usually something you do want to look for.
- 50:13Speaker 1: And the Falcons can run the football. Man they got
- 50:15Speaker 1: Bijon Robbinson there, and I think that's the way to
- 50:17Speaker 1: attack the Bills. You can run the football and basically
- 50:23Speaker 1: you keep the Bills offense off the field more. That's
- 50:26Speaker 1: what you want to do when you're playing against so
- 50:27Speaker 1: you want to run the football and keep possession of
- 50:30Speaker 1: the football, and the Falcons can do that with the
- 50:31Speaker 1: way that they run their offense. And the last game
- 50:34Speaker 1: on the board here is Bears Commanders, sorry, Bears, Redskins.
- 50:38Speaker 1: I hate that fucking name. The Commanders, Bears and Redskins
- 50:43Speaker 1: dub As against the Redskins. Redskins down from five to
- 50:47Speaker 1: four and a half. Here's the Redskins are a public
- 50:50Speaker 1: side as well. Sixty per tickets only sixty four percent
- 50:52Speaker 1: of the cash on them, so the money is coming
- 50:55Speaker 1: in on the Bears side, and I will slightly agree
- 50:58Speaker 1: with that too. This is a rivalry matchup basically, man.
- 51:02Speaker 1: I would say between Caleb Williams and Jaydon Daniels, who
- 51:05Speaker 1: were part of the same draft class. I think they
- 51:07Speaker 1: were the top two quarterbacks taken last year in the draft,
- 51:10Speaker 1: and they matched up once last year and it was
- 51:12Speaker 1: a crazy ending where the Bears looked like they were
- 51:14Speaker 1: gonna be able to get the win after I had
- 51:16Speaker 1: Washington as a play on my show in that game too,
- 51:18Speaker 1: and Washington had the leader earlier in the game. They
- 51:21Speaker 1: blew the lead and then if you remember, Washington won
- 51:23Speaker 1: the game on a hail Mary from Jaydon Daniels right
- 51:26Speaker 1: at the end, which was just insane, an insane way
- 51:30Speaker 1: to win that game. I forget. If that there might
- 51:31Speaker 1: have been at Chicago too, I forget, And it was
- 51:33Speaker 1: more insane because Chicago's defender didn't defend on the play
- 51:37Speaker 1: because he was too busy in the end zone. It
- 51:39Speaker 1: was you know it was at Washington because he was
- 51:41Speaker 1: taunting the fans. So I think it was in the
- 51:43Speaker 1: same stadium because yeah, I'm pretty sure Chicago's defender was
- 51:47Speaker 1: taunting the fans and didn't cover the receiver in the
- 51:50Speaker 1: end zone and give up the touchdown because of that
- 51:52Speaker 1: absolutely ridiculous. So it is gonna be a little bit
- 51:55Speaker 1: of a revenge situation, I think for Chicago for that reason,
- 51:59Speaker 1: because people do remember that game. I think because it's
- 52:02Speaker 1: the Williams versus Daniels thing, because of how ridiculous that
- 52:06Speaker 1: game was at the end there. I think Chicago might
- 52:09Speaker 1: show up for this. I mean, of course, it is
- 52:12Speaker 1: Monday night, so both teams are gonna show up for it.
- 52:14Speaker 1: But I think the spot's a little bit worse for Washington.
- 52:17Speaker 1: They're having to travel back from the Pacific coast. That's
- 52:19Speaker 1: not that easy. They went out west and beat the
- 52:22Speaker 1: Chargers last week and now they have to come back
- 52:23Speaker 1: home here. And they do have a divisional game up
- 52:26Speaker 1: next against Dallas and then they face Kansas City, so
- 52:29Speaker 1: they might be looking ahead to that Dallas game next
- 52:31Speaker 1: week a little bit too. Maybe they did. Possibly they
- 52:34Speaker 1: don't take the Bears totally seriously. Bears sitting at two
- 52:37Speaker 1: and two, although the Bears did win their last two games,
- 52:41Speaker 1: although they probably should have lost the game against the Raiders.
- 52:44Speaker 1: The Raiders out gained them in the game, and it's
- 52:45Speaker 1: really just more Raider turnovers that did them in in
- 52:49Speaker 1: that game. So kind of a bullshit lost. Yeah, kind
- 52:52Speaker 1: of a bullshit win for the Bears there. And I
- 52:55Speaker 1: think the Bears blocked a Raiders game winning field goal
- 52:58Speaker 1: attempt at the end of that game too, which is
- 53:01Speaker 1: absolutely ridiculous, So the Bears shouldn't have won that game.
- 53:04Speaker 1: They went into the bye, so the Bears do have
- 53:07Speaker 1: an extra week to prepare for this too, So you
- 53:09Speaker 1: could say maybe that is an advantage because they did
- 53:11Speaker 1: have an extra week to prepare for this, But they
- 53:13Speaker 1: did go into the buy in a two game win streak,
- 53:15Speaker 1: so sometimes when you're on a win streak, like don't
- 53:17Speaker 1: use that buy to fix things, although maybe you could
- 53:20Speaker 1: argue they will, because even though that win against Dallas
- 53:24Speaker 1: was pretty convincing, the win against the Raiders was not convincing.
- 53:27Speaker 1: I think they know that they got away with that win,
- 53:29Speaker 1: so I think maybe they will use the buy to
- 53:32Speaker 1: kind of focus on some things there, and that gives
- 53:33Speaker 1: them time to travel back from Vegas to to go
- 53:36Speaker 1: back from there to Washington there to cross the country there.
- 53:40Speaker 1: So generally in that case, I do think the buy
- 53:42Speaker 1: is a little bit better for the Bears. So we
- 53:45Speaker 1: will lean to the Bears now, but not a play
- 53:48Speaker 1: for me. Let's go to best bets here and then
- 53:50Speaker 1: I'll get out of here, which I already gave out one,
- 53:56Speaker 1: which is I don't even know why I'm doing it, man,
- 53:59Speaker 1: I don't know why I'm doing it, but the first
- 54:01Speaker 1: one chronologically, We're gonna go with the Jets plus the points. Man,
- 54:06Speaker 1: I know, dude, Jets own five. I think I think
- 54:10Speaker 1: the only winless team still. I think they only owned
- 54:12Speaker 1: five team because the Titans won. The Titans have one win.
- 54:17Speaker 1: Miami has a win now because they beat the Jets.
- 54:20Speaker 1: Is there any other team that doesn't have a win yet?
- 54:22Speaker 1: I don't think so, Right, Raiders gotta win in the
- 54:24Speaker 1: first week. Yeah, So I think it's it's just the Jets.
- 54:28Speaker 1: So something's got to give here, man. I still think
- 54:30Speaker 1: the Jets are just not as bad as the record
- 54:33Speaker 1: really necessarily indicates. Man. Their defense hasn't been good, there's
- 54:37Speaker 1: no question about that. But the Broncos are not an
- 54:39Speaker 1: explosive offense. So I think the Jets might finally get
- 54:42Speaker 1: a little bit of a reprieve defensively as far as
- 54:44Speaker 1: the offense that they're facing here, and it's gonna be
- 54:46Speaker 1: bon Nicks having to go to London. This game's one
- 54:50Speaker 1: of the London. This game is a London game at
- 54:51Speaker 1: nine to thirty am Eastern here. So bon Nicks, you
- 54:55Speaker 1: know a guy that's not used to traveling to go
- 54:57Speaker 1: to London. I don't think he had to do it
- 54:58Speaker 1: last year, So and that spot might do a little
- 55:01Speaker 1: bit worse than a more experienced QB like Fields. I
- 55:05Speaker 1: don't know if Fields has played in the London games before.
- 55:07Speaker 1: Maybe he has, maybe he hasn't. But the Broncos are
- 55:10Speaker 1: getting all the public action eighty two percent of tickets,
- 55:13Speaker 1: only seventy four percent of the cash, and this is
- 55:15Speaker 1: a neutral site game and the Broncos are laying seven
- 55:18Speaker 1: and it's a pretty low total of forty three and
- 55:20Speaker 1: a half with the money coming in on the under
- 55:22Speaker 1: to So the money's coming in against the Broncos who
- 55:24Speaker 1: are public, and the money's coming in in the under
- 55:27Speaker 1: with fifty five percent of tickets on the over, fifty
- 55:29Speaker 1: three percent of the cash in the under. So that's
- 55:31Speaker 1: the type of setup where you do want to look
- 55:32Speaker 1: to take the points if you think it's gonna be
- 55:34Speaker 1: a bit of a lower scoring game and teams might struggle,
- 55:38Speaker 1: like teams might startle to score a little bit, and
- 55:39Speaker 1: the money's coming in on the under a little bit here. Yeah,
- 55:42Speaker 1: the Broncos. I mean, I do think it is kind
- 55:44Speaker 1: of a sophomore slump type of season. For the slump
- 55:47Speaker 1: continues for bo Nick's year. He just hasn't been as
- 55:50Speaker 1: good this year, man. And they're coming off just a
- 55:54Speaker 1: monster win, dude. I mean, that's really part of the
- 55:56Speaker 1: handicap here is Denver just went into Philadelphia and beat
- 55:58Speaker 1: the super Bowl champs, so they huge comeback, and now
- 56:01Speaker 1: they have to go from Philadelphia and go to London
- 56:03Speaker 1: and play this game. I know they don't have a
- 56:05Speaker 1: big game up next really against the Giants, although maybe
- 56:08Speaker 1: it's a little bit bigger now that Jackson Dart is
- 56:10Speaker 1: the hype of the league. Now, I just don't know
- 56:13Speaker 1: that Denver's really gonna pay total attention to this Jets
- 56:16Speaker 1: team that's I think the only winless team left in
- 56:19Speaker 1: the NFL. Coming off beating the super Bowl champs and
- 56:22Speaker 1: giving them their first loss. You go from facing a
- 56:25Speaker 1: four and zero team on the road and being an underdog.
- 56:28Speaker 1: By the way, this is another situation you do want
- 56:30Speaker 1: to look for the Denver going from an anti public
- 56:33Speaker 1: underdog in one game to being a public favorite in
- 56:35Speaker 1: the next game. I talk about that in the NFL.
- 56:37Speaker 1: That's a situation where you do want to look to
- 56:39Speaker 1: go against a team like that, which, by the way,
- 56:42Speaker 1: I think that is the situation with the Cardinals too.
- 56:45Speaker 1: The Cardinals were republic huge favorite against Tennessee. They were
- 56:48Speaker 1: republic like nine point favorite last week against Tennessee, and
- 56:52Speaker 1: now the Cardinals are an anti public like nine point
- 56:55Speaker 1: underdog against the Colts. So again, this is like massive
- 56:58Speaker 1: public overreaction time here, and it's those huge swings just
- 57:02Speaker 1: from one week to the next on the same team.
- 57:04Speaker 1: You do want to look for stuff like that. So
- 57:06Speaker 1: that's what Denver's in here. They now haven't played the
- 57:09Speaker 1: role is a huge favorite, and the only time that
- 57:13Speaker 1: they've actually covered as a favorite was against Cincinnati on
- 57:16Speaker 1: that Monday night game against that hapless Cincinnati offense. They
- 57:19Speaker 1: did cover this particular number at home against Tennessee to
- 57:23Speaker 1: start the season and barely did that. They only won
- 57:25Speaker 1: by eight, and I think Tennessee covered the larger number there.
- 57:29Speaker 1: But this Denver team, and they have not put up
- 57:31Speaker 1: a lot of offense. Man, the most of they've scored
- 57:33Speaker 1: all season is twenty eight, so I think that can
- 57:35Speaker 1: help the Jets. And the Jets, by the way, a
- 57:38Speaker 1: little bit better than the Zone five record. Man. They
- 57:40Speaker 1: put up a lot of yards against Pittsburgh. They had
- 57:42Speaker 1: the lead against Pittsburgh the opening week. We still got
- 57:44Speaker 1: the cover on the Jets, but the Jets really should
- 57:46Speaker 1: have won that game. They made a nice comeback against
- 57:49Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, and they lost that game really close. They
- 57:51Speaker 1: outgained Miami on Monday night and wound up losing that
- 57:54Speaker 1: game because of turnovers. So Jets really haven't been that bad.
- 57:58Speaker 1: And then yes, they played a pretty bad game against
- 58:01Speaker 1: Dallas last year. So really it's kind of crazy that
- 58:03Speaker 1: the two worst games the Jets have played have both
- 58:06Speaker 1: been at home against Buffalo that was the game where
- 58:08Speaker 1: fields went down, and then Dallas. Although those were the
- 58:13Speaker 1: two best offenses that they faced to Buffalo and Dallas,
- 58:16Speaker 1: I would say and Tampa maybe, but Buffalo and Dallas
- 58:19Speaker 1: they can both they both have really good quarterbacks. Obviously,
- 58:22Speaker 1: I mean Tampa has a pretty good quarterback as well,
- 58:25Speaker 1: but still I mean, they're not gonna be facing a quarterback,
- 58:28Speaker 1: a dynamic quarterback like that this time. Sorry about Knicks,
- 58:31Speaker 1: but yeah, I don't think the Jets are gonna give
- 58:33Speaker 1: up quite as many points in this one as they
- 58:35Speaker 1: did in those games. Think it'll be a little bit
- 58:37Speaker 1: easier for them. But the other thing I was gonna
- 58:39Speaker 1: say is, yeah, the Jets. I mean, they've outgained their
- 58:41Speaker 1: opponent in the Pittsburgh game, in the Miami game, so
- 58:45Speaker 1: they've they've done it a couple of times, and they're
- 58:49Speaker 1: losing the games on turnovers. Man, the Jets are the
- 58:51Speaker 1: only team. It's this still remains the case that the
- 58:54Speaker 1: Jets are the only team in the entire league that
- 58:56Speaker 1: has not forced a turnover yet, and that just can't
- 58:59Speaker 1: get to happen, man, because fumbles sometimes are unforced, and
- 59:03Speaker 1: when the ball hits the ground, it's random who recovers
- 59:06Speaker 1: that fumble, like it depends on where the bounce goes.
- 59:09Speaker 1: So at the very least, you gotta think the Jets
- 59:11Speaker 1: are gonna have fumble recoveries at some point. They're gonna
- 59:14Speaker 1: get a takeaway at some point. Maybe it's gonna be
- 59:17Speaker 1: in a game like this. Yes, Denver has a good defense,
- 59:19Speaker 1: but the better defense laying a ton of points like
- 59:22Speaker 1: this in an unfamiliar environment, I don't think it's really
- 59:24Speaker 1: what you want to do. Denver's gonna need to be
- 59:26Speaker 1: able to cover a large number like this. I'm not
- 59:27Speaker 1: sure they're gonna be able to. The Jets have been
- 59:30Speaker 1: okay offensively, as I said, they haven't been that bad
- 59:33Speaker 1: on offense with justin fields there and whatever. They have
- 59:36Speaker 1: some talent there on that offense. Yeah, so I yeah,
- 59:40Speaker 1: I think it's a better spot for the Jets. And
- 59:41Speaker 1: the Jets are more used to playing in London as well.
- 59:44Speaker 1: They played in London last year, although it was with
- 59:46Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers at the Helm and it was with a
- 59:48Speaker 1: different coach. I think it was solid back then and
- 59:51Speaker 1: now it's Aaron Glenn. But still the Jets is a team.
- 59:53Speaker 1: They got a lot of players that were on that
- 59:54Speaker 1: team last year that did play in London, so they're
- 59:57Speaker 1: kind of more used to it, used to the grind,
- 59:59Speaker 1: I think than Denver is, so they might be able
- 1:00:02Speaker 1: to be able to get up for it, even though
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: obviously Sean Payton is the better of the two coaches generally.
- 1:00:06Speaker 1: But yeah, I think it's a spot to take the
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: Jets man getting all those points, I think it makes
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: sense we'll we'll give out a play on the Jets. There.
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: I have this Utah Arizona State game on I was
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: correct about Utah, by the way, should have made it
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: a play and should have included in my pick six
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: and pick seven. I guess which I think I still
- 1:00:24Speaker 1: did okay in the pick six and pick seven because
- 1:00:27Speaker 1: I think I added a couple of winners. I think
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: I added USC and Georgia State, and I think I
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: had Missouri plus three and a half is my best bets.
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: So which, by the way, I know I give up
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: Missouri plus three on the show sort of, but I
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: was saying looking at the line as it was moving on,
- 1:00:42Speaker 1: because I said, you could wait to see if I
- 1:00:44Speaker 1: got to three and a half, and I think I'm
- 1:00:46Speaker 1: gonna I am gonna like I gave it out at
- 1:00:49Speaker 1: three and a half this morning because I said it
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: had gone to three and a half. So I'm gonna
- 1:00:52Speaker 1: give that play out, the Missouri play at three and
- 1:00:54Speaker 1: a half. By the way, I'm gonna count that as
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: a win in my book, because when I put the
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: play in myself, I did do it at three and
- 1:01:00Speaker 1: a half. It was there at some of the books,
- 1:01:02Speaker 1: and I said that I thought it would be when
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: I gave it out on the show. So that's how
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: I'm gonna track that one, even though I did put
- 1:01:09Speaker 1: three in some of the banners and whatever, which and
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: I think in some of the show descriptions, all right,
- 1:01:17Speaker 1: two more best bets? Which one is the next one
- 1:01:20Speaker 1: up in the rotation? Oh, you're gonna love this one.
- 1:01:24Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns plus six and a half. This is I know,
- 1:01:27Speaker 1: this sounds completely insane. We're gonna take the points against
- 1:01:30Speaker 1: the Steelers. And yes, I know Cleveland has not won
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh since two thousand and three, I believe, so
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: we're going completely against history or Cleveland never wins in Pittsburgh.
- 1:01:43Speaker 1: I get it. This looks ridiculous to be doing this,
- 1:01:46Speaker 1: but I think this is where you this is the
- 1:01:49Speaker 1: spot where you do want to actually do this. Man.
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: Seventy three percent of tickets, only sixty seven percent of
- 1:01:53Speaker 1: the cash are on the Steelers. The public doesn't want
- 1:01:56Speaker 1: anything to do with the Browns. Steelers at a six
- 1:01:59Speaker 1: point favorite, and the total is I think the lowest
- 1:02:01Speaker 1: of the week, up a little bit from thirty seven
- 1:02:03Speaker 1: and a half to thirty eight, but seventy four percent
- 1:02:05Speaker 1: of tickets and only sixty five percent of the cash
- 1:02:07Speaker 1: on the over, so the money's coming in the under
- 1:02:09Speaker 1: I talk about this one. When you have a game
- 1:02:10Speaker 1: that you think is gonna be a very low scoring
- 1:02:12Speaker 1: game like this, there's more value in taking the points.
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: So we're gonna do that. We're gonna need a divisional
- 1:02:17Speaker 1: underdog here as well. And the Browns they still play
- 1:02:20Speaker 1: good defense. Man. The Browns have been good, pretty good
- 1:02:23Speaker 1: defensively throughout the season so far, and Baltimore scored a
- 1:02:27Speaker 1: bunch of like kind of bullshit laid against them. That
- 1:02:29Speaker 1: was a twenty to ten game late in the game. So,
- 1:02:32Speaker 1: I mean Cleveland they looked they were a little bit
- 1:02:34Speaker 1: better defensively than they looked in that one. Yeah, they
- 1:02:36Speaker 1: got knocked around a little bit by this Detroit offense there,
- 1:02:40Speaker 1: but that game, the yardage differential wasn't that crazy in
- 1:02:44Speaker 1: that Detroit game either was. I think this Cleveland defense
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: is actually a little bit under the radar. They slowed
- 1:02:48Speaker 1: down Joe Barrow though he's a slow starter. In Week one,
- 1:02:52Speaker 1: they slowed down Green Bays offense. And last time we
- 1:02:55Speaker 1: saw Cleveland last week. They played decently against Minnesota to
- 1:02:59Speaker 1: last week. So yeah, Cleveland. I mean, I think Cleveland
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: was the anti public side last week and the anti
- 1:03:04Speaker 1: public side again this week because they're the fucking Browns.
- 1:03:07Speaker 1: And yes, I know, they played in London last week.
- 1:03:09Speaker 1: So people are gonna point out, well, wait a minute,
- 1:03:11Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's coming out of a bye here, so they have
- 1:03:13Speaker 1: extra rest to come back from London because Pittsburgh's last
- 1:03:17Speaker 1: game was the London game. In Pittsburgh, they have a bye,
- 1:03:21Speaker 1: so they have all this extra time to come back
- 1:03:22Speaker 1: from London, whereas Cleveland is only this one week to
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: come back from London. So it's like, what are you
- 1:03:27Speaker 1: doing here? Man? Pittsburgh's the team with extra rest. I know,
- 1:03:31Speaker 1: but I'm gonna point out that I actually think Pittsburgh's
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: by is actually not beneficial to them, and I think Cleveland,
- 1:03:37Speaker 1: I'm not gonna I don't think they're actually gonna be
- 1:03:39Speaker 1: in that bad of a spot returning from London. This
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: is what happens in the NFL. I think by default,
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: teams that play in a London game, the schedule makers
- 1:03:47Speaker 1: give them a bye the next week so they can
- 1:03:50Speaker 1: come back from London and have that extra week off.
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: But I think what happens is a team can go
- 1:03:54Speaker 1: to the league and request to take the bye at
- 1:03:57Speaker 1: a different point in the season, usually later in the season,
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: and they could say, no, we actually don't want to
- 1:04:01Speaker 1: take our buy right now, we want to just play
- 1:04:03Speaker 1: play through. And teams that do that actually do pretty well,
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: believe it or not. Teams that because they go to
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: the league and they say, and I'm guessing this is
- 1:04:13Speaker 1: what happened with Cleveland because they think they would have
- 1:04:15Speaker 1: had a buy otherwise here, they go to the league
- 1:04:17Speaker 1: and say, no, we actually want to play here. But
- 1:04:18Speaker 1: that tells you that they actually want to be there,
- 1:04:20Speaker 1: they actually want to show up and play in that game. No,
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: we want to just continue playing. We want to play
- 1:04:25Speaker 1: right through. So I think Cleveland, it's gonna actually be
- 1:04:28Speaker 1: a little bit more momentum for Cleveland for that reason.
- 1:04:31Speaker 1: So I actually think it's not a negative. And for Pittsburgh,
- 1:04:35Speaker 1: I mean, Pittsburgh is just better than they look right now.
- 1:04:37Speaker 1: May they're three to one, but that game against the Jets,
- 1:04:40Speaker 1: they were losing the whole game, probably should have lost.
- 1:04:42Speaker 1: That game against New England, they had the benefit of
- 1:04:46Speaker 1: I think four or five turnovers in that game, and
- 1:04:48Speaker 1: that's why they beat New England. So they could have
- 1:04:51Speaker 1: easily lost both those games. This Steeler team could easily
- 1:04:55Speaker 1: be a one to three team right now, and I
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: guess we'll give them a legitimate win in the London
- 1:04:59Speaker 1: game against Minnesota, and that was the game that people
- 1:05:01Speaker 1: that got up early enough saw that game two weeks ago.
- 1:05:04Speaker 1: But that means Pittsburgh went into the buy on a
- 1:05:06Speaker 1: good note. They went into the buy with two straight wins.
- 1:05:10Speaker 1: So it's like, when things are all working, what do
- 1:05:11Speaker 1: you do? You don't have anything to fix. And I
- 1:05:15Speaker 1: think the buy is not beneficial because they're not gonna
- 1:05:17Speaker 1: know what to expect from Cleveland's offense because Cleveland just
- 1:05:20Speaker 1: went to Dylan Gabriel and he's played one game so far.
- 1:05:23Speaker 1: But you don't really know what Cleveland's gonna do with
- 1:05:25Speaker 1: that offense with Gabriel at the Helm now. So I
- 1:05:27Speaker 1: think that's also kind of a negative for Pittsburgh. They
- 1:05:29Speaker 1: can't really fully use that extra week to prepare for
- 1:05:33Speaker 1: this because they don't exactly know what to prepare for.
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: And again, going into the buy, when everything's working for you, you
- 1:05:38Speaker 1: don't really have anything to fix. And Pittsburgh is actually
- 1:05:41Speaker 1: another one of those teams where they were an anti
- 1:05:42Speaker 1: public underdog in the game against Minnesota there in their
- 1:05:47Speaker 1: last game in London, and now they're all of a
- 1:05:48Speaker 1: sudden a public favorite of a bunch of points. So again,
- 1:05:52Speaker 1: there are another one of those teams where the public
- 1:05:54Speaker 1: has flipped on them from one game to the next.
- 1:05:57Speaker 1: So that's another spot where it seems like you're gonna
- 1:06:00Speaker 1: get some value going against that team. So that's what
- 1:06:02Speaker 1: we're gonna do. Pittsburgh. They're also leading this division. Man
- 1:06:06Speaker 1: uh and Cleveland. Nobody's really gonna beak Cleve as a
- 1:06:09Speaker 1: threat in this division. They never beat Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has
- 1:06:11Speaker 1: at least they have a multiple game lead on every
- 1:06:15Speaker 1: team in the division. And by the way, Pittsburgh, this
- 1:06:17Speaker 1: is what I what I alluded to earlier on the show. Pittsburgh,
- 1:06:20Speaker 1: by not playing last week and by having a bye,
- 1:06:23Speaker 1: they gained a half game on everybody in their division. Cincinnati, Baltimore,
- 1:06:27Speaker 1: Cleveland all lost last week. So Pittsburgh just by not
- 1:06:30Speaker 1: playing gain another half game on their entire division. It's
- 1:06:34Speaker 1: absolutely ridiculous. So I think Pittsburgh may not totally show
- 1:06:38Speaker 1: up for this game against Cleveland, and by the way,
- 1:06:41Speaker 1: they have to turn around in four days and they
- 1:06:43Speaker 1: play the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night, and the Bengals
- 1:06:48Speaker 1: the Bengals, it's gonna be Joe Flacco now with the Bengals,
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: so that might get more of your attention now that
- 1:06:52Speaker 1: it's maybe a capable quarterback there for Cincinnati, Joe Flacco there,
- 1:06:56Speaker 1: so that might get Pittsburgh's attention a little bit more.
- 1:06:58Speaker 1: It's gonna be ridiculous with the the two quarterbacks in
- 1:07:02Speaker 1: that game, Rogers and the Flacco are combined like eighty
- 1:07:07Speaker 1: three years old probably or something like that. That's absolutely insane.
- 1:07:11Speaker 1: But I think Pittsburgh might actually look ahead to that
- 1:07:13Speaker 1: because Cincinnati is the team that's closest to them in
- 1:07:15Speaker 1: the division and really seemingly the only kind of like
- 1:07:18Speaker 1: threat to them in the division right now. Though again
- 1:07:20Speaker 1: I think Baltimore is gonna rise up. But I think
- 1:07:23Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for Pittsburgh. Man, despite having the
- 1:07:25Speaker 1: buy for all those reasons, I don't know if I
- 1:07:28Speaker 1: forgot to. Yeah, I think I got all my points
- 1:07:31Speaker 1: out there, So yeah, we're gonna take the points with
- 1:07:34Speaker 1: Cleveland to this one. Man, as ridiculous and as insane
- 1:07:37Speaker 1: as that sounds. Take the points with Cleveland, and again,
- 1:07:40Speaker 1: that streak could continue. Because you don't need Cleveland. The
- 1:07:43Speaker 1: streak might continue. You're not the slump the streak, and
- 1:07:46Speaker 1: the slump could continue because Cleveland, like I said, they
- 1:07:49Speaker 1: haven't won at PITTSBURGH'SUS two thousand and three, which is
- 1:07:52Speaker 1: a ridiculous stat but they don't even need to win
- 1:07:54Speaker 1: the game. They just need to cover. They don't need
- 1:07:56Speaker 1: to win, so the streak could continue. You could still
- 1:07:58Speaker 1: get Cleveland right. I'm sure even has covered at least
- 1:08:01Speaker 1: some of those games at Pittsburgh since then. So that's
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: what we're gonna go with. And then finally, which I
- 1:08:06Speaker 1: think is my favorite play, the New Orleans Saints plus
- 1:08:09Speaker 1: three and a half against the New England Patriots. The
- 1:08:12Speaker 1: Patriots are the absolute hype right now, and I think
- 1:08:15Speaker 1: this is a spot where you just got to fade
- 1:08:17Speaker 1: the Patriots. And this is another one of those games
- 1:08:19Speaker 1: where the Patriots were an anti public underdog on Sunday Night,
- 1:08:25Speaker 1: the public was all over the Bills, and now the
- 1:08:27Speaker 1: Patriots upset the Bills, and now what do we see?
- 1:08:29Speaker 1: Oh yeah, the Patriots are the most public team of
- 1:08:31Speaker 1: the week pace. It was almost with seventy two percent
- 1:08:33Speaker 1: of the tickets on them, only fifty six percent of
- 1:08:36Speaker 1: the cash. The money is saying to fade the Patriots
- 1:08:39Speaker 1: pretty significantly here. It's not a particularly high total. It's
- 1:08:43Speaker 1: gone up a little bit from forty five to forty six,
- 1:08:45Speaker 1: so total is kind of one of those mid range
- 1:08:47Speaker 1: totals sixty percent of the tickets and sixty two percent
- 1:08:50Speaker 1: of cash on the over. Don't know what to do
- 1:08:52Speaker 1: with that information, really, but I think it's a fade
- 1:08:54Speaker 1: of the Patriots here. Man. The three and a half,
- 1:08:57Speaker 1: it looks so easy to just lay the points to
- 1:08:59Speaker 1: the Patriots. I mean, people are also gonna do that
- 1:09:01Speaker 1: transitive thing where they see, well, New England just went
- 1:09:04Speaker 1: into Buffalo and beat Buffalo, and New Orleans lost at Buffalo,
- 1:09:08Speaker 1: so of course New England's gonna beat New Orleans easily, right,
- 1:09:12Speaker 1: But again I don't really think so, man. And that
- 1:09:14Speaker 1: was the legitimizer game for New England, and everybody saw
- 1:09:16Speaker 1: it on Sunday night, like Buffalo's been the team that's
- 1:09:19Speaker 1: led this division for years and years at this point,
- 1:09:22Speaker 1: and New England finally came in and announced that they're
- 1:09:25Speaker 1: now here, and they pulled off that ridiculous upset easily
- 1:09:29Speaker 1: the biggest win of Drake May's career, the biggest win
- 1:09:31Speaker 1: that New England's had in the last probably four seasons. Basically,
- 1:09:35Speaker 1: that was like their biggest win since they had Tom
- 1:09:37Speaker 1: Brady Man. So that was a monumental win for New England.
- 1:09:40Speaker 1: Now they have a second straight road game and they
- 1:09:42Speaker 1: have to go play the New Orleans Saints and out
- 1:09:44Speaker 1: of conference game, which is one of the games that
- 1:09:47Speaker 1: means the least on your schedule. And then who do
- 1:09:48Speaker 1: they have up next? The Tennessee Titans. You might be saying, well,
- 1:09:51Speaker 1: why am I pointing that out? Well, I'm gonna say
- 1:09:55Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a sandwich spot because that's
- 1:09:57Speaker 1: Mike Rables return to Tennessee. Mike rab both former Tennessee
- 1:10:01Speaker 1: coach where he was last is now the Patriots coach.
- 1:10:04Speaker 1: So I actually think that's kind of a somewhat of
- 1:10:06Speaker 1: a big deal for able to return to Tennessee. There, man,
- 1:10:08Speaker 1: So I think that's not a nothing burger there in
- 1:10:12Speaker 1: that game. This is the game, and I think they're
- 1:10:14Speaker 1: gonna overlook man, and the Patriots did look better than
- 1:10:16Speaker 1: they were in that game against Carolina, they were helped
- 1:10:18Speaker 1: out by some turnovers. The yard is differential wasn't crazy
- 1:10:22Speaker 1: in that one. I mean, yes, you could argue they
- 1:10:23Speaker 1: were better than they looked in the Pittsburgh game because
- 1:10:25Speaker 1: they lost all the turnovers in that game. Sure, but Patriots,
- 1:10:30Speaker 1: I mean, we gotta take a little bit of a
- 1:10:32Speaker 1: step back from the Patriots for now, man, because there
- 1:10:35Speaker 1: are other wins besides the one against Buffalo, where against
- 1:10:38Speaker 1: Miami and Carolina. So I mean, we're not gonna be
- 1:10:40Speaker 1: totally impressed by those two wins, right. So New Orleans,
- 1:10:43Speaker 1: I think they're absolutely capable of keeping this game close.
- 1:10:47Speaker 1: They play a type of offense that where they kind
- 1:10:50Speaker 1: of just don't make mistakes. They don't ask Spetzer Rattler
- 1:10:54Speaker 1: to do way too much and you know, like do
- 1:10:57Speaker 1: anything risky. So I think that's good. So I think
- 1:10:59Speaker 1: they hang in this game. And that's what the Saints
- 1:11:02Speaker 1: have done. Man. They lost to Arizona by seven, They
- 1:11:04Speaker 1: lost to San Francisco by five. They got blown up
- 1:11:07Speaker 1: by Seattle on the road, but that game was actually
- 1:11:10Speaker 1: a lot closer statistically than it looked. And then they
- 1:11:12Speaker 1: covered against Buffalo on the road and hung within that number,
- 1:11:16Speaker 1: only losing by twelve. So New Orleans team and then
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: of course they won last week against the Giants against
- 1:11:21Speaker 1: Jackson darsh which I had New Orleans last week because
- 1:11:24Speaker 1: I thought it was a bad spot for the Giants
- 1:11:26Speaker 1: because they were coming up that huge first Jackson Dark game,
- 1:11:29Speaker 1: a big win over the Chargers, and then they were
- 1:11:31Speaker 1: gonna have to play the Eagles on Thursday night. So
- 1:11:33Speaker 1: I think it was a bad spot going on the
- 1:11:36Speaker 1: road to face New Orleans. And I think this is
- 1:11:38Speaker 1: gonna give New Orleans some momentum now, man, because they
- 1:11:40Speaker 1: just beat Jackson Darts, So that'll give them some confidence
- 1:11:43Speaker 1: going forward. They were an zero to four team. They
- 1:11:45Speaker 1: finally got a win, and sometimes when that happens, you
- 1:11:47Speaker 1: kind of just gained some confidence after that. Man, you
- 1:11:50Speaker 1: finally got that monkey off your back. Hey, we can
- 1:11:52Speaker 1: actually win a game. I think that's gonna allow New
- 1:11:54Speaker 1: Orleans to play a little bit more loose. They're staying
- 1:11:57Speaker 1: at home, They're gonna show up for it. Because the
- 1:11:59Speaker 1: Patriots are now getting all this hype because Drake May
- 1:12:02Speaker 1: everybody's talking about how he's for real. Yeah, he played
- 1:12:04Speaker 1: well in the Buffalo game, made some huge plays for sure.
- 1:12:07Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be good for sure. But I
- 1:12:10Speaker 1: mean New Orleans got up for another young quarterback last week,
- 1:12:13Speaker 1: Jackson Dark, so I think they're like, I think they'll
- 1:12:16Speaker 1: do it again against Drake May. But I think still
- 1:12:20Speaker 1: the main factor here is I was looking to go
- 1:12:21Speaker 1: against New England, like right away after what happened when
- 1:12:24Speaker 1: they beat Buffalo. I was like, who's New England playing next?
- 1:12:26Speaker 1: Who are the Patriots playing next? We got to go
- 1:12:28Speaker 1: against them, so and I looked into it and I
- 1:12:31Speaker 1: saw no reason not to do it. So that's how
- 1:12:34Speaker 1: it's gonna be. That's how it be, man. So we
- 1:12:37Speaker 1: got four plays here. Hopefully they work out. We're gonna
- 1:12:41Speaker 1: be on the New York Jets plus seven, Arizona Cardinals
- 1:12:44Speaker 1: plus nine, And have you know me, man, these are
- 1:12:45Speaker 1: all the these are the toad Specials. All these just
- 1:12:48Speaker 1: massive ugliness. Cleveland Browns the Clowns plus six and a half,
- 1:12:53Speaker 1: and New Orleans Saints plus three and a half. It
- 1:12:55Speaker 1: doesn't get a whole lot uglier than that. Man, We're
- 1:12:57Speaker 1: playing an O five team. I will play in an
- 1:13:01Speaker 1: Arizona team that I think at least has two wins
- 1:13:03Speaker 1: a Cleveland team that has one win. I believe in
- 1:13:05Speaker 1: the New Orleans a one win team as well. Why
- 1:13:08Speaker 1: not baby learn it Toad on Twitter, learn it Tone
- 1:13:10Speaker 1: on Instagram, Covered in you because my YUK channel on YouTube.
- 1:13:15Speaker 1: If you want to check that out, please do, by
- 1:13:18Speaker 1: the way and leg and subscribe to that and to
- 1:13:20Speaker 1: this channel here Better Off Dead, which I've got to
- 1:13:22Speaker 1: change the name of it. Probably get some more se
- 1:13:26Speaker 1: o here. But I thanks for everybody for hanging out,
- 1:13:28Speaker 1: especially Charles, who's basically the only one tonight. Anna thank
- 1:13:32Speaker 1: you as well. I get more for the college football
- 1:13:35Speaker 1: show man. I think just Saturday night, everybody's out more
- 1:13:37Speaker 1: than they are on Friday night. I guess I don't know,
- 1:13:40Speaker 1: but thanks for hanging out, guys, Like subscribe to the
- 1:13:42Speaker 1: channel here, give me a review on Spotify, iTunes all
- 1:13:44Speaker 1: that helps me out and Patreon dot com learn to
- 1:13:47Speaker 1: Toad and there's some bonus yuke stuff there. Prioritize requests
- 1:13:51Speaker 1: at the highest level and a Spotify feed with the
- 1:13:54Speaker 1: yuke stuff at the lower level. And I gotta still
- 1:13:58Speaker 1: get that stuff going. So I mean it is going,
- 1:14:00Speaker 1: but I have to like get the last few that
- 1:14:02Speaker 1: I've put out up there. That's gonna do it for now. Everybody,
- 1:14:05Speaker 1: have a good night. I'll be back in the morning
- 1:14:08Speaker 1: because we're gonna I think we have one hockey game tomorrow.
- 1:14:12Speaker 1: I think there is baseball playoffs, so I think there's
- 1:14:14Speaker 1: one baseball game. I think the American League Championship Series starts.
- 1:14:17Speaker 1: The ALCS I think starts tomorrow too, not the ALS.
- 1:14:20Speaker 1: It's not gonna be Luke Gerrig. We're not gonna be
- 1:14:22Speaker 1: doing any ice bucket challenges me. I think there will.
- 1:14:25Speaker 1: So there will be one baseball game, one hockey game,
- 1:14:28Speaker 1: and then yeah and then yeah, I think that'll be it.
- 1:14:32Speaker 1: I guess it'll be a really really short episode tomorrow morning,
- 1:14:35Speaker 1: and I'll rant about what the fuck happened tonight. Hopefully
- 1:14:39Speaker 1: we actually wound up with a win. I mean, you
- 1:14:41Speaker 1: start the day four and one. If you wind up
- 1:14:44Speaker 1: not getting a win on that day, that's just man,
- 1:14:47Speaker 1: it is just so brutal. It happens sometimes, and hopefully
- 1:14:50Speaker 1: that's not the case. We'll see. Hopefully I at least
- 1:14:52Speaker 1: got away with a win tonight, but it all depended
- 1:14:55Speaker 1: on that last hockey game, so we'll see. Peace out
- 1:14:58Speaker 1: for now, guys, until tomorrow morning.